I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Mayo by-election count thread
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221 Comments
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Saucey stuff. I am certain that unlike last time, this result will not be a real downer.
Very nice Dave, very nice.
Just back from the polling booth - judging by the preferences shown by who took what HTV card, I’d say it’s going to be very close, and the Greens or Di Bell the independant might snatch it on preferences. No wonder the Libs were worried.
I guess we’ll have more of an idea in an hour or so.
Wow, people really think the Greens have a shot? Amazing if the House of Representatives crossbenches double overnight.
Chinda63,
Do you think the mood out in the booths was anti liberal, or anti briggs to make it this close (if it turns out to be so)
I doubt it will be particularly close but am willing to be pleasantly surprised.
I am hoping for an upset, but the cynic in me still thinks Briggs will scrape home. But I would never underestimate Di Bell, I know she has impressed a lot of people in Mayo. And Briggs has certainly not impressed some areas of the electorate, particularly with those anti-Green pamphlets. The Libs losing Mayo…could it really happen?
Gosse and Parawa in, 10% against Libs, 9% to Greens, similar to Bell.
Vote #s:
Lib 54%
Green 18%
FF 10% Bell 9.33%
This is off 0.16% of the vote, so it’s hardly conclusive…of anything.
Diana, this old dear is down on her arthritic knees praying it might be so, hey and i’m not even overly religious!
If the swing were replicated across the electorate… (serious back of the envelope, from memory)
Libs on 43%, Greens on 20%…but even then I’d expect FF to pref the Libs back in.
And Di Bell’s just overtaken the Greens to go to 18.26%
i certainly would’nt want work choices Briggs representing me.
FF had an open ticket. Did not direct preferences.
Ummmm… or not. The AEC’s just removed the last booth’s figures, returning us to square one.
Sorry, I should know better. I mean FF voters.
2PP for Libs is higher than it was v. Labor thus far…
I’m hoping that Greens voters and Di Bell supporters will do enough to push Briggs to preferences, then it’s anyone’s game, surely.
I’m calling it for Briggs sadly.
Briggs falling slightly, he’s now on 45, whereas Greens + Bell is about 35%. If it gets a bit closer I could see something happening. Greens polling 21.87%. Pretty good, although we always do better when the Labor Party don’t run than when the Liberals are the absent party.
As expected, not much happening for Mary Brewerton, so more votes for Di and Lynton! I’m not calling it for Briggs yet!
Briggs is down to 43% now. Greens + Bell is at 37%. There is very few votes cast but if this pattern continues it could be very interesting.
I assume Day will preference the independent before either the Liberal or Green. If so Di Bell is a big chance of finishing ahead of the Greens candidate. She would win I would think.
Briggs’ primary vote is now only 42.44%. That is too low. He’s in trouble!
3.72% counted.
Briggs (LIB) 42.44%
Vontow (GRN) 22.35%
Bell (IND) 16.16%
Day (FF) 10.22%
Briggs at 58.57% 2PP vs. Greens.
Holy hell.
Greens at 23.43%
Liberal at 40.54%
Greens + Bell is now beating Briggs and Lib + FF won’t equal 50% by the end of the night.
A great night for minor parties is on
Bring it on!!!
As the vote goes on the Greens get stronger. This could be interesting.
Briggs’ primary vote is down to 41% with 17 booths in. The TPP looks like it might be maverick. It is possible that a candidate (Di Bell) wins a seat with less 20% of the primary vote.
If one of the minor parties wins I wonder how the MSM will spin this as a rebuff to Rudd. !
2PP down to 55.99 v Greens
If he’s at 56% 2PP vs. Greens he’s probably doing even worse against Bell. Greens are falling back and Bell is climbing.
Dumb question - is Day preferencing Di Bell ahead of the Liberals?
I am glad the ALP never ran a candidate. Would love Greens or Di Bell to win!
Bob Day is running an OPEN TICKET. NOT DIRECTING PREFERENCES….(As had been said several times…)
It’s only the small booths reporting so far — 2PP is still very sketchy — and could tighten. Could end up marginal…
Go Lynton!
Dyno - I’m not sure. But Day had nasty things to say about Briggs.
Libs must be thanking their lucky stars GRN & Bell votes are not reversed. Greens are the Libs best friend tonight. Cant see them winning but their holding out Bell. Bell votes will leak & FF will go solidly to Libs (or rather against Green). But if Bell can manage to overtake the greens, looks like she will win…
Yeah, if only they had each other’s spots on the ballot.
Would be useful to see some scrutineer figures here on:
(i) split of Day prefs between Liberal, Green and Bell
(ii) split of Green prefs between Lib and Green.
These would give a good idea of whether the scenario of Day beating the Libs from third place on the preferences of an ex-Lib FF candidate is realistic. If anyone can post anything of this sort here we can crunch some rough numbers.
Thing is, we aren’t going to know if Bell overtakes the Greens in the count tonight, cause of the way counting work.
We are going to be waiting a while
If Bell is only a couple of % behind the Greens I could see them overtaking the Greens with FF + Other preferences then winning on Greens preferences.
My understanding is that Day had an open ticket, ie no preferences recommended to anyone.
I’m starting to feel torn. I want the Greens to do as well as possible, because a good result here will be a boost for them everywhere. A good result for Bell is nice, but it has less significance elsewhere.
However, if Bell can get past the Greens on preferences it looks like she has a real shot, much better than Vonow has if he stays ahead. Who to barrak for?
Sorry, (ii) should be split of Green prefs between Lib and Bell, of course.
Any word on HTVs of micro candidates like Brewerton, Spragg, McCabe? If they decide the split between FFP and Bell, whoever is eliminated first will tell us how the night will play out.
Actually I think Bell would probably win on the votes as they stand. She’s near FF on the Ballot and will get a lot more FF prefs than the GRN. If she beats the GRN to second place she’ll win on these figures.
Bloody hell.
Lib v Grn: 52.75/47.75
Make that 52/48
Current TPP on AEC website has Libs 52 v Greens 48 (after 18 of 79) booths.
Could be an interesting count…
Bloody hell.
Lib v Grn: 52.75/47.75
Whoo hoo, it’s starting to get interesting.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13826-188.htm
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