I will not be providing live blogging for either of tonight’s by-elections, but here’s a space for you all to discuss the figures from Mayo as they come in.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Mayo by-election count thread
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221 Comments
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Im thinking the alp shouldnt run more often, better for the electorates, better for the spectators
51.46 to 48.54. How big a boilover would this be? (won’t happen, but it’s a lovely thought)
True, Matt – Vonow + Bell on 39, Briggs on 40.5…
Ironic then that Day, the disendorsed lib, may have something to say with his (voters’) preferences.
51.42% TPP now…
As for the Democrats, who would have thought in 2008, the DLP would be beating the Democrats in the Adelaide Hills…?
I know I’m being lazy but are there any really strong Liberal booths to come or are they very much the same across the board?
Now this is interesting. I personally hope Briggs will win… i think Matt Sykes is right, the combined Bell/Vonow primaries are too low. We won’t know for sure until we get some more preference counts of course, but there will be preference leakage from the minor parties/independents to Briggs. Briggs is probably safe over 40% of primaries, and certainly will be if he can stay above 42%…
Big jump to over 36% counted, Green swing still high, Bell a way back.
I think I’m starting to believe.
That included Vic H, balanced out by Aldgate I would imagine.
Strathalbyn, 1 more from Vic H still to come in the Capital C Conservative column…
Ben, the thing is there are a lot of small booths in the Adelaide hills that are pretty favourable for the Greens – areas that are naturally beautiful but close enough to Adelaide to commute. So the small booth/bad for Greens nexus doesn’t necessarily hold. On the other hand, I see some good Green booths that haven’t come in yet.
This result is Interesting for only a few months ago we had the Nats win Gippsland strongly yet a seat like Mayo normally a very safe Liberal seat has turned this result on! does this possibly damage Nelson’s leadership for even if the Liberals win they now have to fight to hold a seat that should never be in doubt.
Another big one; Libs below 51 on 2PP, Green swing above 11.
Briggs 50.94
Greens 49.06
theirs only 1% in it now!
I don’t think The Greens can win. The AEC’s TCP count is very accurate.
Di Bell could win though. She is most likely to beat Briggs and benefit from Day & the others.
htf are “conservatives for climate and environment”??
Aldgate TPP still to come in – the Greens still have a chance…
and that lasted 5 seconds!
Goolwa & Strathalbyn still not in…
Briggs to scrape in, as much as it pains me.
josh
dare to believe
Need to watch the % of the 2PP preferred count…
It’s only 15.87% so far…
Polling Places Returned: 39 of 79 Votes Counted: 15.87%
Also worth noting that no votes in from VH South, whilst no preferences have been counted in VH…
back to 51.13 – 48.87…
Why didn’t Bell run for the Greens.
VH South saw a very big swing to ALP at the last election, bigger than VH and I think (should have checked!) than VH East as well.
This means diddly-squat in a non-traditional 2CP count, but still!
51.03… what a tease of an election!
If VH stands for Victor Harbour I would expect a swing to the Greens for the health of the Murray River is becoming a big issue.
ouch … Briggs on 50.16% 2PP
50.16 to 49.48!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!
And booths shutting in WA, 3 big cons booths not yet in from Mayo but a remarkably uniform, steady result in thus far, and a popular independent romps it home against a failing national.
The headlines tomorrow are going to be worth cutting out & pasting on a wall…
What booth caused that moment!
Aldgate is in – that’s the big Labor booth.
There’s a couple of Labor-ish booths to come in, but not sure if it’s going to be enough for the Greens…
50.3 to 49.7 now. Go you good thing!
Goolwa and VH will favour Greens IMO because of the Murray.
Reading through the 2007 results, and the booths over 2000 voters had the following results…
Mount Barker (4363): Downer 52.44% 2PP
Aberfoyle Park (3096): Downer 51.26% 2PP
Strathalbyn (3084): Downer 61.19% 2PP
Aberfoyle Park North (2348): Downer 55.24% 2PP
Goolwa (2373): Downer 54.70% 2PP
Nairne (2163): Downer 51.69% 2PP
Stirling West (2125): Downer 53.88% 2PP
Given the overall 2PP was 57.06%, i am concluding the bigger booths aren’t as friendly to the libs. Given how close it is already, and none of these booths are yet factored into the current 2PP count (only 3 are in for primaries yet) – this could be very interesting in half an hour….!
2PP 50-2-49-8 – too close to call with 25% in!!
Briggs is the sort of candidate the ALP get (rightly) criticised for.
Based on 32 booths TPP in I had a look at the Libs’ 2PP from those booths from 2007 and it was 57.4 compared for their final for the seat in 2007 of 57.06 (including absent, prepoll, provisional and postal). So if their drop in 2PP compared with 2007 was uniform (which it often isn’t in a given seat, especially where a Green candidate is involved) then that suggests the final 2PP will be something like 51.1:48.9 Lib/Green – which is of course irrelevant if Bell beats the Green into second.
Surely if Bell beats the Green into second she wins – the question is can she do it? Green over Bell out to nearly 7% now, so I’d say it’s very hard for that to happen (in the absence of scrute figures showing otherwise).
This could go anywhere!
Goolwa in and swing still strong.
Back out to 50.92. (but the fact you can even write “back out to” is pretty remarkable)
thanks for those Interesting booth numbers! considering the closeness and I would image most ALP votes will go to the Greens or Di Bell I’m going to stick my neck out and can see the Greens in front by the close of counting but when all is counted the Liberals may well hang on!
ok, does this vindicate the ALP not running a candidate?
Very much so! I knew it was smart for the ALP not to run a candidate. There is a large amount of non-major party vote in Mayo IMO.
Does anyone know who Bill Spragg is? He’s an independent who’s got over 2% of the primaries – which could be vital in determining which candidate gets up…
That was VH South, Green swing holding at 11.5%
Will be interesting to see what %ge of FFP preferences are flowing to Greens. I’d warrant a fair chunk of that 7% increase in their vote is from socially conservative Laborites, not keen on the Greens but even less keen on the Liberals.
Well it depends on what you mean by ‘vindicate’. If what you mean as in, is it a politically smart move? Possibly. If what you mean is whether it’s the philosophically right move… no.
VH Sth also in 2CP
will this result have any impact on any decisions regarding the electorate of Higgins???
I think the interesting thing will be where the preferences of the excluded candiates go. I’m not sure about the other, but the DLP ran a sort of reverse donkey ticket which put Briggs at number 4 and Vonow at number 10 (and Di Bell at 11). I know Mary Brewerton preferenced directly to the Greens and then to Di Bell, but what about Bill Spragg, Malcolm King, Andrew Castrique, One Nation and Rachel Barons?
It will depend on where they put there preferences (or, to be precise, where their voters put their preferences) as to whether Di or Lynton finish second. If Di gets up there, it could be very, very interesting.
Philosophically????
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