Comments on: Mayo by-election count thread

By: Staufner

Staufner — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 07:16:49 +0000

I Voted DLP. No regrets. ANY independent would be better than a Liberal or Green yes-man. Democrats are dead and I’ve always disliked Family First and One Nation.

I agree the next election is going to be interesting because it is possible the Greens and Labor may be able to gradually win the seat.

By: Old Time Hack

Old Time Hack — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 04:48:13 +0000

Anyone with any further opinions on whether Bell can win?

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 06:54:22 +0000

People knew that a vote for a Green or Independent wasn’t going to elect a Labor Member and voted accordingly.

Nor would it necessarily. The option is always there to vote Green-Lib-ALP… this isn’t the Senate with ticket voting. Looks to me like last time the ALP took it for granted as a loss, and this time a bunch of non-Libs didn’t – hence the big swing against the Libs.

By: Eric

Eric — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 06:05:06 +0000

Mayo is still a safe Lib seat in ALP v Lib terms and always will be as long as they are the two majors.

But change to Lib v independent and most seats will favour the independent, eg Lyne. It’s just that there is usually a Labor candidate to spoil the independent. This time there wasn’t, and the Greens got close. In fact even the Greens may have been a spoiler here, with the Bell v Briggs count probably the smaller margin.

The trouble is that Labor normally contests every seat, rather than saying “Who’s the most Labor-like person who might win it” and letting, say, the Greens have a go at Mayo. They might both sit out of Barker and see if an indy wins it.

The Liberals might do likewise, sitting out for Adelaide, seeing if a FF or mate of Xenophon waltzes into an otherwise safe seat.

It wouldn’t happen, but it would be interesting – lots more seats would become marginals again.

By: coconaut

coconaut — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 02:28:32 +0000

It was a good result for the Liberals. They won the seat, that’s all that matters to the Liberals ultimately.

By: B-Mann

B-Mann — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 01:46:16 +0000

The Liberals main problem in Mayo was the lack of a Labor bogeyman. People knew that a vote for a Green or Independent wasn’t going to elect a Labor Member and voted accordingly.

By: chinda63

chinda63 — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 01:27:21 +0000

It’s been fascinating listening to Jamie Briggs and others spin this result into something not so bad for the Libs. They claim that this result was to be expected and was due to losing a popular local member, plus the fact that there were 11 candidates standing.
Fact number 1 – this “popular local member” had a swing of 2.56% against him on primaries last November (6.5% TPP); one of the largest swings in the state.
Fact number 2 – the number of candidates standing is only an issue when those said candidates hate you and what you stand for and consequently preference against you.
Fact number 3 – following on from point 2, in any case it is the VOTERS who decide where to put their preferences, so if most of the people voting choose to put you low down on their list then you need to consider the possibility that the voters also hate you and what you stand for and they knew exactly what they were doing.
Fact number 4 – this always has been a rock solid Liberal seat and while the demographics are changing they aren’t changing fast enough for that to be a factor in this election. The problem in this case was clearly the CANDIDATE, what he stands for and the way he was parachuted into the seat. People resented it, and not just Bob Day and his mates. Jamie Briggs needs to have a long, hard look in the mirror (but I suspect it will only confirm how much he loves himself).

Next election will be very interesting. A lot will have to do with the way Briggs conducts himself both locally and in the parliament and the new housing developments both south and north in the electorate might start to play a part. Who knows? In a few elections time we might be talking about this as being a rock solid Green seat…

By: coconaut

coconaut — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 23:11:32 +0000

Labor have been morally dead for several years and the corpse ought now to be given a decent burial. The name is already maintained by a handful of cranks, like the like Liberal Party and the DLP. Serious people in Labor should join either the Greens, the Dems or vote independent according to taste.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 06:52:20 +0000

The Dems have been clinically dead for several years and the corpse ought now to be given a decent burial. The name will however probably be maintained by a handful of cranks, like the Communist Party and the DLP. Serious people in the Dems should join either the Greens, the ALP or the Libs according to taste.

By: Max Baumann

Max Baumann — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 06:38:54 +0000

The Democrats brand name has proven to be the kiss of death to any candidate they run, no matter how good the candidate or how positive the media coverage in the local newspapers and radio.

I ran the Mayo campaign for the Democrats and was thrilled with the response we got from the local media. I worked hard, Andrew Castrique (the Democrats candidate) worked hard and in the end it amounted to almost nothing.

The positive thing from our campaign was organising a debate/public forum at Strathalbyn about the River Murray. 250 people showed up.

We were given the run around by the Liberal party and on the day of the debate Mr Briggs was trying to bully the facilitator and us into changing the format and start time. It was this bullying and Mr Briggs aggressive demeanour to those who asked questions that resulted in a massive 13.99% swing against him in that booth. Also contributing to that swing away from the Liberals was a large swing to local Di Bell who lives at Finniss which is nearby.

So where to for the Dems? Only time will tell. It is only a matter of time before a decision on their future is made by the party and its members. It really is a matter for the party to discuss and decide in the coming months.

On another point, turnout was way down (74.46%. Which is unusual for Mayo.) Many people who went through my polling booth just happened to be visiting the local library next to the polling booth and then came through saying they had no idea there was an election on.

I put this down to mismanagement of this by-election by the Australian Electoral Commission who only sent out one pamphlet to all householders and advertised once in the Adelaide Advertiser (somewhere in the middle) on the Thursday before. The Advertiser and Messenger papers also did not pay too much attention to the by-election in the lead up.

There will be lots of people receiving fines for not voting as a result.