The last polls of the WA election campaign are in: 50-50 in Newspoll, 51-49 to Labor in Westpoll. The respective samples are 1802 and 402. Westpoll also has marginal seat polls of around 400 voters, showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Scarborough, 56-44 Kingsley, 59-41 in Kalamunda and 52-48 in Collie-Preston, while Labor leads 50.5-49.5 in Riverton. None of these seats are must-wins for Labor.
The two-party figures conceal a collapse in the Labor primary vote, put at 35 per cent by Newspoll and 37 per cent by Westpoll (compared with 41.9 per cent in 2005). However, much of the lost vote is leaking to the Greens (12 per cent in Newspoll and 11 per cent in Westpoll, compared with 7.6 per cent in 2005) and coming back as preferences. Newspoll records by far the worst ever personal ratings for Alan Carpenter, with 42 per cent satisfied (down seven points) and 48 per cent dissatisfied (up eight points). Barnett is on 40 per cent and 43 per cent; Carpenter still leads as better premier 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Westpoll has the latter measure at 47 per cent for Carpenter and 27 per cent for Barnett, suggesting its smaller sample might be skewed to Labor.
Interestingly, Tony Barrass of The Australian talks of “Newspoll’s additional analysis in the 10 most marginal Labor seats” which “reveals an average two-party Labor vote of 48 per cent”. That amounts to a swing of 4 per cent, which would cost Labor nine seats and government if applied evenly across the 10 (unless John Bowler wins Kalgoorlie, as some are suggesting). However, Robert Taylor of The West writes that Labor are holding up relatively well in the southern suburbs, suggesting they should retain Jandakot and maybe even Riverton.
This raises the question of which seats are dragging up the average. Expectations are that John Castrilli will perform very strongly in his bid for re-election in Bunbury. It has been observed that Labor are struggling in the northern suburbs, which Westpoll backs up with a 6 per cent swing in Kingsley. This might have significance for Ocean Reef and Joondalup, notwithstanding that Labor has heavily targeted those seats while abandoning Kingsley. A Labor win in Jandakot could thus be cancelled out by a Liberal win in a northern suburbs seat further up the pendulum. That might mean Joondalup or perhaps Wanneroo, where new developments have been breaking out like acne over the past four years. Most of these have been concentrated around the new suburb of Tapping, whose booths split about 57-43 in favour of the Liberals at the federal election. Alan Carpenter could be found there yesterday campaigning at the local primary school.
Boy, this is going to be fun.
In the upper house, strong Greens polling suggests they should win four seats, although they have been disappointed before on election night. That should reduce Labor to 13 seats out of what is likely to be a combined “left” minority result of 17 seats out of 36. My tip for the 19 seats of the “right” is 14 Liberals, three Nationals (also performing strongly in Newspoll, confirming anecdotal evidence) and two Family First.
288 Comments
Shannon, great work with the early Westpoll results – but I don’t think these marginals are “key”. Scarborough and Kalamunda are Liberal seats, and Kingsley might as well be. Labor can philosophical about Collie-Preston and very pleased about Riverton, assuming the results are accurate of course.
205
Gary Bruce Says:
August 23rd, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Carps has shown with the timing of the election that he is a master of election strategy. Poor Barnett shouldn’t play the game if he can’t hack it. Labor will win this with an increased majority.
What thread was that on ESJ? I want to look that up myself.
now THAT’S close
usually if its that close, the incumbent is favoured…
but, hey,who knows.
Yes the Labor Candidate for Southern River, Paul Andrews, is in trouble.
His health is appalling. Had his second, or was it third, kidney transplant.
His skin is awful and he has one bulging eye due to his stuffed renal system. No wonder he has made no public appearances.
Don’t really know why he is bothering.
I hope for goodness sake that McRae doesn’t win in Riverton. The other seats I couldn’t care less about, but that guy really needs to go. I’m surprised anyone would actually vote for him, it’s embarassing really.
LOL GB, chameleons oft change their arguments.
Normally I’d agree- but with the Libs running Mike Nahan the Neocon…..
I agree about McRae – can’t stand him myself but he does seem to work his electorate hard. And I am not exactly a fan of Nahan – although I have nothing specific against him. I wouldn’t be surprised if McRae held on but I agree that he deserves the boot IMHO
2 Edward StJohn – these are not my words. For a start I don’t call Carpenter “Carps”. Once again you have shown that you’ll say or do anything to make mischief.
Using Antony Green’s calculator, the preferences Westpoll gives would indicate a 1.3% swing to the Liberals, with the ALP retaining Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills. If the polling in Riverton is properly indicative of the electorate, the ALP will be pleased, as bloody close as that margin is.
The Newspoll variant tells a more harrowing tale: most of the marginals fall into the Liberal hands, but the swing stops dead at Jandakot, which is retained by a 1.3% margin. The next two seats are Joondalup and Forrestfield, which are both needed for the Liberals to win parliament in their own right. According to Newspoll, their margin sits at 2.1% and 2.2% respectively.
Lateline Video on Newspoll.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/09/05/2357042.htm
GB 9 – Did you mispeak?
12 Edward – I’ve gone through all of the threads related to the WA election looking for that posting. IT DOESN’T EXIST. You are a liar.
Edward, when you DO post a quote, post the link to the comment !
Believe me Frank he can’t. Those are not my words in any way, shape or form.
Aound a 6-7% swing to the Liberals in Kingsley. I wonder if that will be repeated in other northern seats. If so, the Liberals might have a chance in Wanneroo, Joondalup and Ocean Reef, maybe just clinching victory for them. Anything but a minority govt with Nationals please!
For a start I don’t know Carpenter well enough to know whether he is great at strategy or not and I’ve never suggested Labor would wiin the election easily. This is just plain mischief making.
I don’t know what I’ve done to get up your nose ESJ but I’m glad I have.
I wonder whether the Liberal Candidate in Wanneroo not declaring a campaign donation during a recent Council Election Campaign will be a disadvantage for the Libs ?
16
Gary Bruce Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 9:29 am
But Steve there has been a massive shift back to Labor from the last Westpoll. I bet they didn’t couch the latest results in those terms though.
Er GB, I think you’ll find you’re bring wound up.
Eddie you dunce, you are meant to link to the ORIGINAL post !
19 Edward – that I recognise and I stick by it. Now give me the thread to -
“205
Gary Bruce Says:
August 23rd, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Carps has shown with the timing of the election that he is a master of election strategy. Poor Barnett shouldn’t play the game if he can’t hack it. Labor will win this with an increased majority.”
You’re right 20 Fulvio and if this isn’t trolling I’ll eat my hat.
Frank #18 – Perhaps. Although I don’t think anyone else really takes notice of these things other than us hardcore addicts. I notice the story’s also been buried by the media, given that they’re completely biased in this state. Hardcore addicts sounds like some sort of disease, doesn’t it? Remind me never to use the phrase again.
Some seats quoted by Westpoll were irrelevant and some important ones excluded
Why not figures on Darling Range & Oceean Reef , far more relevant than Scarborough & Kalamunda that ar obviously liberal Where’s North west or Swan Hills as well
Irrspective there ar large varying anti Labor swings in that poll in Kingsley , Collie , Scarborough & Kalamunda , YET not in Riverton
Westpoll scan:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/thewest060908.jpg
It really frustrates me not being able to watch it live on TV. (I’m in Adelaide)
Is it SO HARD for the ABC to put the coverage on ABC2 or ABC3?
…It must be!
It’s not on ABC 2 or 3 because of the Paralympics.
Your only choice is ABC Local Radio in Perth streaming
William, any juicy bits in “West Watch” ?
ESJ, I’m not sure what you were trying to achieve with #2, but please stop it.
Editorial backs Labor!
William, can you please post Newspoll/Westpoll from Election day 2005 for comparison ? I’m pretty sure they were similar.
19 William- …and somewhere in an infernal dimension, the Prince of Darkness felt an overwhelming urge to turn on his heater.
I’m utterly amazed, considering their best efforts to suggest otherwise.
#31 – you are joking…
Oh, that was meant to be “31-William.” My apologies for the error, and this double-post.
Wonder if th Westpoll selection of seats I questoned in #25 is “a narrative” OR poor psephological selections
Why would a paper do it’s best to bring a government down in every way except the editorial? Is it having two bob each way?
What is The West playing at? They really can’t make up their minds, can they? Well, I’ve decided who I’m voting for. I’ll give you a hint – it starts with the letter ‘L’
And take out my one age fraudulent newspoll response and does that move it slightly to the libs?
I really do feel like a 34 year old. A 24 year old sometimes.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/wanewspoll-6sep.pdf
There has been a crash in the ALP primary
38, the west editorial favoured labor last electiion, in spite of their best efforts to tear labor down prior to election day. Armstrong uses the editorial on election day as a cynical strategy to defend himself and his excerable paper against any press council complaints, ie how can you accuse me of bias if on election day i tell the punters to vote labor, cynical, transparent and childish on line with the west philosophy.
And how is it for the ten year old Albert Jacobs for the Libs in ocean Reef? Is he in? Like the Chinese running underage gymnasts in the olympics.
The Who Do You Think Who’ll Win is the similar to the internal ALP polling ALP 57% Lib/Nat 27%
Te west did EXACTLY the same thing last time, pulling the rug out from under Barney last time with late editorials. Barnett will not be pleased with West if he loses.
The West editorial:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wested060908.gif
The headline of the west editorial is so ambiguous that it really makes no difference. Very few people will read that before voting, which is something the west probably realises.
And neither will Barry Court.
Quite frankly, what’s left of the West Australian’s readership is so far to the right that Jesus Christ himself couldn’t convert them into Labor voters. Ann of Perth and her evil sisters are probably the only denizens left in that netherworld.
Anthony’s Calculator using Westpoll.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-1.3&retiringfactor=1
What’s the Front page of The West ?
Robert Taylor:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/thewestrt060908.gif
Frank: “Comeback Colin on verge of shock victory”.
Seeing those Westpoll figures makes me a bit more confidence of a Labor Victory at best, and Newspoll as well as a worst case scenario. I think I felt the same way in 2005 as well, when the Newspoll came out on Election Day – best sign – see how well staffed are the booths.
“There has been a crash in the ALP primary’
not necessarily , Libs/Nats hav not gained , variations ar between Greens and ‘others’ categories vs Labor vote and Newspoll hav had problems tracking those smaller Party suport nubers , and did so pre last Federal electon
IF newspoll hav accurately tracked then , then there methodology is still worth almost a further .505 to Labors vote compared to there 2 PP 51/49
(and Wespolls samples ar reely too small for a trend)
Did anyone see the tiny little story about WACOSS yet?
“Libs better for cost of living” or some such nonsense (sorry, can’t remember the exact quote – already thrown out my early edition of teh worst in disgust) was the spin they put on the WACOSS survey here:
http://www.wacosselection2008.org/
Click on one of the issues, and it will tell you how the parties rate on that issue as voted by respondents.
How are they still able to call it a newspaper…?
I bet that Headline will haunt the Libs if they lose.
It reminds me of that US Presidential Headline that became memorable for the wrong reasons.
55: Carpenter’s approval/dissapproval has also significantly moved.
Undecided are breaking to Barnett in the Better Premier figures
And this is the headline in question
http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/07/25/dewey_wins.jpg
My tip for the upper house: Labor 13, Greens four; Liberal 14, Nationals three, Family First two.
Tony Barrass in The Australian
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302085-5006789,00.html
Amazing, some of these “callers” voting for Barnett are basing it on Carpenter not appearing on 6PR.
Last few callers have been for Alan Carpenter.
Reading the newspoll figures the alp and greens primary in the metro area is 51 alone not including a split from the 11 for others, not looking too bad
Had closer look at that Newspoll and it gets better
Firstly , better Premier 48/35 , that should be close if there’s a big Liberal win
Breaking poll between City & Country , Labor & Libs/Nats ar equal 38% on Primarys , so can not see how Labor would lose but it may be a close win Greens out poll ‘others’ furthermore there’s th further reel Labor 2PP vote inbeded previously mentioned that Newspoll don’t calculate
so if Newspoll is accurate , Labor should win by 2 to 3 seats , assuming voters ‘land’ just reasonably in marginals as elswhere
Final result 6PR “Straw Poll”
Colin Barnett 27
Alan Carpenter 24
Based on phone calls and 2 emails, the emails went to Carpenter.
Van Onsolen.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302083-7583,00.html
I’ve got to tell you, the thought that the NSW situation might affect the WA election never entered my head for a second.
And the OO are living up to their name.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302144-601,00.html
Same here it’s like the people of Lyne & Mayo basing their vote on the WA State Election.
Yeh I think thats pushing it a bit
Most Western Australians dont know who is the Premier here, let alone NSW lol
“I’ve got to tell you, the thought that the NSW situation might affect the WA election never entered my head for a second.”
Quote first line:
“Granted chaos in the Labor ranks in Sydney is a long way from Perth, but it is hardly helpful for Alan Carpenter”
th long bow was explained of 1995 NSW campaign manager also contesting his seat , and now same situation in WA with Labor
So this long forgotten irrelevant thought entered this ‘oz’ writers head in a mainstream Newspaper article on 2008 WA election eve Creative would be one word for it
I wonder if these columnists will eat their words on Monday if the Government is returned.
I’ve rewritten my post, if anyone’s interested.
It looks like Labor will just barely scrape home.
I suspect Labor will narrowly lose as the swing will be stronger than expected, although it won’t be uniform.
I’ll be quite happy to be proven wrong.
“If Barnett wins, I think it will eclipse John Howard’s effort in 1996 as the greatest comeback in Australian political history.”
At least PVO doesn’t hide his colours, with some teachers, lecturers its hard to figure where they stand.
Both leaders with negative satisfaction ratings, could suggest lack of will for change?
Interesting about Family First being tipped to pick up two, would that have influenced Fieldings grandstanding this week.
I think Fielding and FF are aiming at getting the disaffected liberal voters, who think Nelson is too left, and the homeless One Nation.
At the end of day people won’t vote for a chubby bloke ahead of a statesman like premier. Call me fickle, but when Beazely was running against Howard I was working in the UK and was in close contact with this guy that headed up an international think tank. ” He said Australians won’t vote for a fat bloke, it never happens, it goes aginst the countries sporting psyche”.I’ve never forgotten those words. Carpenter by a nose.
I’ve got a good joke about Palin a moose and felatio. Where should I post it to get US exposure?
Out with it, centaur_007.
Outer Eastern, the Outer Southern Rail seats and the outter northern rail seats may tell an interesting story combined.
Outer East “we will get new rail”
Southern “we just got new rail”
Northern “we just got some new rail before last election but now its just ovecrowded rail without enough car parks”
I also think Darling Range and Riverton will be very interesting to watch tonite.
Darling range is a new seat and I believe it has a “tree change” demographic increase. Riverton I believe is becoming the new litmus test seat goig on results of last couple of elections and the fact the seat always gets plenty of media and polling focus.
William 30 -
Sorry, I’ll resist the temptation for more sport with our very own Baghdad Bob.
80 Edward – Well, you’ve shown us what you are really made of anyway and it aint pleasant.
Does anyone know if there will be live coverage of the election in the eastern states on free-to-air tv or radio?
I don’t why the NSW changeover is characterised as “chaos”. I posted a note somewhere here a few weeks ago to the effect that an ALP branch president had told me that a changeover to Rees was imminent. It is only Rurfax and News hax who are in any way taken by surprise. The dogs were barking weeks ago.
The Liberals need 52% of the 2PP vote to win, anything less and Carpenter gets over the line!
Frankly I don’t know whether to be offended by you all disagreeing with my theory or embarrassed that PVO ran with my comment from yesterday on the Iemma thread.
Diogenes Says:
September 5th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Couldn’t they have waited until after the WA election to have such an ugly brawl? I don’t know how much notice anyone in WA is going to take of this but it can’t help much. It does contribute to the meme that state Labor is falling apart and nees to be gotten rid of.
What’s PVO and who cares?
Sean at number 82,
I doubt it. Though ABC Perth radio will probably stream the coverage online, as ABC Darwin did the other weekend.
GB
See Frank at 66.
Well at least all that rubbish about a 7% swing to the Libs last weekend has been shown up for the crap it always was. I said at the time it was obviously a scare tactic from a government which knew the election was going to be perilously close and couldn’t afford to lose too many voters to a protest vote.
If I do say so myself, that theory now looks to have been right on the money.
Diogenes,
Stardom at last.
I note also that Tim Dunlop’s blog was quoting from (and naming) PB yesterday.
Haven’t read every post on this thread yet. Has anyone provided the latest betting figures yet?
Only Betfair is available today –
LABOR PARTY 1.4
LIBERAL PARTY 2.0
William
Are you still sticking with your prediction of a one seat win to Labor?
GB (92)
I may be wrong, but I don’t think Betfair can be taken as seriously as the other agencies, given the way they operate. Nevertheless, that still looks like a serious
tightening of the odds for the Libs.
Perhaps ABC2 will screen the WA election count?
ABC 2 has the Paralympics opening ceremony from 9:50, so it won’t be there. It’s not shown on the ABC TV schedule at all.
I think streaming 720 on the internet is the best bet.
Andos (96)
Not being an expert on these things, can you provide any more info about how I can access that site please?
It’ll be most likely streamed on the internet like the NT count.
Sounds like a late night in the East.
Can some one tell me if ABc TV …Perth or Sky
will broadcast coverage?
98 Darn – Sky Noos will have full coverage if you have pay TV.
re 102 thank you
On the 2PP figures provided, the Newspoll would give Labor a clear win.
But the breakdown is far worse for them than the headline and points to a change in government.
1. The drop in the ALP primary vote from 42% to 35%. Perhaps the leaked ALP polling was right after all. Its gone to the Greens, but the question is if this will stick today or is just a halfway house for the Libs (or other minors which could leak to the libs as preferences). If these new Green votes are protest votes, they may not break as strongly to the ALP as ideological Green voters.
2. The preference allocation seems to be generous to the ALP. It gives 10/12 (83.3%) of the Green prefs to Labor and 50% of the Ind/Minors. Given the large increase in the Green vote (dilution of hardcore left supporters), 9/12 would be more likely. Since most of the Minors (FF, CDP,ON) are on the right, as are most high profile independents, 50-50 looks wrong also. It could be 6-4 or even 7-3. I read somewhere (Antony Green?) that last time the non-Green minors broke 75-25 to Libs. So the headline result should be more like 52-48, which represents a sizeable swing pointing to a lineball result.
3. ALP primary down 6.9% and LNP up 3.7% on 2005. Yet the TPP changed only 2.3%. Even though most has apparently gone to the Greens, surely this points to bigger swing than this.
4. Prefered Premier. 48 -35 is not bad for an opposition leader. Indicates the Libs may have overcome their leadership issues in the public mind.
I’ve been of the opinion that the ALP will be returned fairly easily (for one the Libs should be down in Albany & Kalgoorlie even before they start looking at gains). This Newspoll dosen’t point that way though.
103 Darn there is usually a link to ABC local radio from Antony Green’s website.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
The 7% swing may well occur across the northern suburbs, but I doubt anywhere else. I have to go and vote – so much time and so little choice.
Thanks steve (105)
101 Mick QuinLivan – yes to both. The ABC in Perth (Not in Melbourne though) and Sky News over Australia.
I’ve looked them up.
Use this great site. Choose region and provider then push find.
http://au.tv.yahoo.com/tv-guide/index.html?hour=11&min=38&date=06&mon=09&year=2008&tvrg=101
Have there been previous state elections where the least preferred premier has won the day?
Mumble is predicting a Liberal win
Darn,
When Betfair has a decent amount of money being transacted they are by far the most fair dinkum of all the agencies – because they are an exchange, not just one bookie setting a price. Also the house’s cut is minimal.
Unfortunately, though, from the prices quoted it looks like there is not enough volume in the Betfair market for this election – so the quoted prices will be pretty meaningless (a bit like a quoted share price when no-one is buying or selling the share).
110 – Like all of us though James, Mumble is really uncertain and not confident of anything.
111 Dyno very true with the other advantage that with Betfair you can bet for or against either party whereas with the others you can only bet for a particular party.
Just Voted at Herne Hill Primary School Big Banner at the front gate saying Vote Labor and This Scholl will be Upgraded with a pic of Giffard and Carpenter, along with another ALP banner saying Vote Labor and we will bill the New Midland Hospital
Libs have their usual scare tactic signs, though smaller.
I did my bit for stirring the pot by have a sign advertising a public meeting on a development application for a Farmers Market removed because it had no authorisation.
Got HTV from ALP, Lib, Green and Christian Democrats, no FF HTV at all.
Today’s West doesn’t fill me with Confidence but we will wait and see.
I can’t wait for the next Queensland election where Independent, Labor and Liberal people will be able to not only bet against the Pineapple Party but for Labor, if they want, depending on their worldview. That should put some volume in the Betfair market.
AM story on the Election, focussing on the Miss Maud Coffee Poll.
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/am/200809/20080906am02-wa-election.mp3
Dyno (111)
I agree with a lot of what you say, but am still not convinced that the serious political punters (the ones that will bet $10,000, $20,000, $50,000 or $100,000) would do it through Betfair – mainly because of the point you raise – that there is not enough in the pool.
Does anyone know what the odds with Centrebet and the others are today?
William,
In which 4 UH seats are you tipping the Greens?
I would be guessing North Metro (Greens getting close to a quota), East Metro (likely to be plenty of ALP overflow) and South West, but not sure about South Metro vs Mining & Pastoral?
The kick in the teeth for South Metro would be a small crash in the ALP primary (rather than a big one) bringing the quota from the low 3s to the high 2s – would need to get down to maybe 2.7ish for the Greens to take the 3rd ALP seat?
117 Darn – they have closed their books on the election.
Peter K – thanks for 104. What voting system is used in WA elections?
Anyone have background on whether booths are well staffed by party workers in the key seats?
darn
i checked Centrbet and Sportingbet this morning and they had closed
And The West keep talking up a Barnett Victory with NO mention of Newspoll.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=2&ContentID=96400
I also note the dead tree version criticising the The Australian, The Fin Review and the Sunday Crimes for having an each way bet.
Gary ya beat me to it
Yep, that is indeed the case, I, as an ALP member will be manning a booth in swan Hills this afternoon.
Either it is going to be a big protest vote and Barnett will sweep in or Carps will hold on by a whisker by a couple a seats, hold onto your hats everybody!
For once I agree wityh you Glen, it’s going to be a nailbiter.
Libs in a landslide. Nothing surer. be glad to see the back of Carpenter and his crooks.
Our favourite Marsupial and his pretty graphs
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/09/06/wa-election/
For what it is worth, from the other side of the country, I am tipping Labor to win 34 seats: http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/
This is my final prediction: Labor 31, Liberals 22, Nationals 4, Independents 2
I just voted down the road in Alfred Cove and was amazed that I couldn’t find a Labor HTV. Apparently there was nobody handing them out, although there was family first and independents. Very little Labor effort, with Liberal banners almost everywhere. Well, I guess Labor have little chance of winning the seat after all.
Voted in Mount Lawley – the local school looks like a marginal (first time ever – we never get anything). The school was plastered with Labor and Liberal materials mainly positive (like the people above described) and a couple of small Liberal negative messages. There were then hordes of blue-shirted Liberals and a far fewer Labor types.
I then took a trip to Nedlands to pick up my girlfriend and have some brekky. We stopped so she could vote on the way. A similar pattern (identical materials to Mount Lawley) – hordes of Liberals (in matching turquoise shirts) shouting ‘Bill Marmion, Liberal Candidate’. Libs had covered the school with their materials. Walker had one guy in a dark blue shirt and two signs. Labor guys looked depressed though the Greens were cheerful. Incidentally, Greens are preferencing Labor above Walker in Nedlands so she will have trouble.
Labor have not bothered with Alf Cove at all this time. It’s not the media circus it was in 2005, either. Last time around their candidate put in a much bigger effort (enough to scare Janet at the crucial cut) but this time their cardboard candidate has been invisible.
Yes Mumble does slightly pick Libs based on an overall State view, and it appears Newspoll THIS time have correctly done bulk pref allocations hence his uncerain Lib prediction
However think if one breaks that Newspoll up , Labor actualy leads on a 2PP basis in Perth by 1% so if Newspoll ar corect and votes spread reasonably , then still tink Labor should still scape in by 2 to 3 seats
Must say Carpenters ‘personality’ & concentration on ‘big picture’ rather than ‘bread & butter’ issues has completely disappointeed me from start of campaign & hurt th Labor vote alot
If Choc from the previous thread is still around, the 5.1% margin I calculated for Southern River does not include any of the Gosnells Senior High booth, so his comment about the 5.1% margin being skewed by this is not correct.
And if he wants to check the calculations, they were all included in a publicatuon I prepared for the WA Parliamentary Library two years ago.
Albert @ 120 -the unions that don’t have axes to grind against Labor usually do a good job of staffing winnable booths. Last state election I watched in awe as the LHMU ran a booth in Girrawheen like a military campaign. The sole Liberal HTV guy uppped stumps before midday, saying he had only been paid to do two hours, so he was off. I couldn’t believe they’d have to pay people to staff their booths.
Osborne Community Centre (Balcatta elecorate) was decked out last night in mostly ALP banners and posters. I think their booth captain must have spent the night in his car parked on the footpath right outside. He was very interested in the monochrome A4 page I received on Wednesday outlining the local Lib candidate’s pitch, but without any authorisation statement. Said: “I’ll ring John” (Kobelke) and took my contact details. I found a Barnett poster blowing down a nearby laneway, so I stuck it where it belonged (wouldn’t want the Libs to get busted for littering).
Hi pollbludgers, this is not a joke, I am a 21-year-old voter, totaly undecided on who I should vote for? I live in Riverton, so I know my vote has some serious sway over who may or may not hold government? I dislike Tony McCrae (seems slimey and a little too left wing) but I also have concerns about the Liberals anti-7 day/late night trade stance, and feel the Libs are way to socially conservative. But I also feel that uranium mining should go ahead in WA… I have Libertarian leanings. Who should I preference. Liberal or Labor?
Go Barnett. Deserves to win and kick the bunch of corrupt cretins out of office!
Re: Anyone have background on whether booths are well staffed by party workers in the key seats?
Well, I have been in two marginals this morning (Kalamunda and Darling Range) and I did notice significantly less volunteers for both major parties and significantly more volunteers for the greens than in last years federal election.
Other differences to the Fed election was the lack of early voters and the lack of general anger, both seen a year ago.
Apathy would best decribe the mood- do i vote for the one doing a bad job or the one who can hardly fill out the job application???
131 SR: You reckon Labor had a go in Alfred Cove last time? I lived in Mt Pleasant at the time and saw nothing of him (except for meeting his mum at the polling booth)… only the circus between Woollard, Kierath and Jackson. (Especially the fracas with the posters in the shop windows at Applecross… hoo boy that was funny.) They did more than 2001 (they didn’t run a candidate to help Doug Shave get his arse handed to him), but not much more.
BBD @ 138 – yes, someone last time around (Fed 07) brought up the old anecdote equating early voting with mood for change, and you could feel a very tangible mood for change in the air. This time my spidey senses are not tingling. The papers seem to be calling a late shift to the Libs but I’m not convinced.
Labor didn’t have a go in the true sense (never gonna win) but I did at least get some campaign material from him, and they ran a few ads in the local papers. This year, zip.
Ryano @ 136. “Who shall I preference, Liberal or Labor?”
You are 21, pro-uranium, you think McCrae is too left wing, and the Libs too socially conservative. Who the hell is getting your # 1 vote? At the risk of breaching the electoral act, I suggest you vote informal, if at all.
Ryano: you sound like a Democrats voter, except perhaps for the uranium mining. It’s a shame that party went belly up.
If I was in Riverton, I’d preference McRae, but with deep, deep reservations. Anyone aside Mike Nahan, I’d vote for – we need less corrupt ex-ministers in the government. Trouble is, if the Libs win, Nahan will become a minister and privatise anything that looks at him wrong. The kind of thing that has worked so badly in Victoria. If McRae wins, he’ll probably be a quiet backbencher who does what he’s told – it could be worse.
Ryano
#136
September 6th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
“Hi pollbludgers, this is not a joke, I am a 21-year-old voter, totaly undecided on who I should vote for? I live in Riverton”
Hello Ryano , at this late stage it seems no Party has impressed you & th policys you quoted ar a diferent mix of Labor & Liberal ones
Sugest go with your own instincts as they’re probably right for you personaly
IF still undecided , look at OVERALL policy principals of both major Partys rather than an individual candidate
Therefore sugest look at both Partys main sourse of financing because there Executives and Candidates and overall policy emphasis generally follow th money LiberalParty gets almost all donations from private enterprise business’s and very little from Unions , whereas Labor gets most donatons from Unions but also a lot from Business Liberals policeys generally ar pro private enterprise as prime focus with employees they assume will benefit by trickle down efect , whereas Labors policy focus is on workers & there equity/public services provided but also taking bussiness’s eseential role in th econamy into consideration as a big factor in growth/employment needs
If you wish to hav a commercial trading entrerprise or be a billionaire vote Liberal they’ll more likely look after you
No 145
The Labor party stands for high taxation and punishment of hard work.
Back in yer box, GP.
I reckon that this election could go either way.
We know that the Government reeks of corruption and voters might resent the snap poll (as we saw in the NT last month), while the Opposition looks utterly incompetent. But which way will voters go?
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see swings going different ways in different seats.
This election might go all over the place.
Visit my blog page for my thoughts on the WA poll in more detail.
http://au.360.yahoo.com/wordsofwarren
I watch with interest!
W
As an interesting, if unrelated, aside:
For those in the republican movement, whose main argument is that Australia does not have an Australian head of state, I advise that you read the following article:
http://www.norepublic.com.au/images/stories/quadrant08mayhos.pdf
It references the oft-forgotten 1907 High Court decision (presided over by the founding fathers of the constitution), which specifically states that the Governor General is the Constitutional Head of the Commonwealth. (R v Governor of South Australia [1907] HCA 31)
Since the Governor General has been an Australian citizen since 1965, the argument underpinning the republic collapses in full and should be ignored as the arrant nonsense of an arrogant former PM.
No 146
BOP, refute the argument if you believe it’s wrong.
Hello Generic Person
#145
Hope you noted you actualy wrote to yourself there
Also hope that as you refer to posters by number , which incidently I hav no objection to , as noted previously your number addrssing is OK except that “number 99″ is yours
I’ve just had a look at the WA state voting intentions over this year and pieced together the threads of polling available during the campaign, and it seems something disastrous has happened to the ALP primary vote during the campaign.
2005 election ALP 41.9 L/NP 39.3 GR 7.6 OTH 11.2 TPP 52.3/ 47.7 pref flow was 55% to ALP
2008 polling ALP 41.5 L/NP 36.5 GR 14 OTH 8 TPP 53.6/ 46.4 @ 55% flow to ALP
Campaign 1st half ALP 41.3 L/NP 43 GR 9.9 OTH 5.9 TPP 50/50 @ 55% flow to ALP
Campaign 2nd half ALP 37.1 L/NP 43.5 GR 10.9 OTH 8.5 TPP 47.8/52.2 @ 55% flow to ALP
Clearly there’s been a collapse of the ALP primary vote from the 41.9% they achieved in 2005; the 41.5% they were polling for 2008; and the 41.3% at the start of the campaign. They now sit at a dangerous 37.1%. Whereas the L/NP jumped to 43% at the start of the campaign and have stayed there for the duration.
As for the TPP flows, the ALP achieved an overall 55% in 2005, which could have been reached with a 75% flow from the Greens and 42% flow from the Others. Applying those specific flows to this campaign would have delivered:
1st half campaign 51.2/48.8 ALP/L/NP
2nd half campaign 48.8/51.2 ALP/L/NP
The second scenario has the ALP losing. However, the saving grace for the ALP is: of the 4.2% primary vote they lost in the campaign only 0.5% went to the L/NP, and 3.7% went to minor parties and others. You would expect most, if not all of that 3.7%, to come back to them as preferences which would deliver them a TPP of over 50.5%. Which should be enough to win.
As for how the individual seats will play out – I have no idea. Living in NSW as I do, gives one more than enough circus entertainment without having to cast one’s eyes westward!
Sorry pollbludgers, those tables all looked nice and neat before I posted! But I’m sure you’ll be able to read them easily enough.
Excellent psephological data tabulation as always, Aristotle, and a compelling interpretation.
No 149
Good pick Ron. LOL. I was referring to your post @ 144 but I suspect WB deleted something and thus the numbering is out of whack.
Ari, the tabulation looks fine this end with the text size adjusted (view – text size – increase/decrease)
Thanks, Rx.
My dear old mum handing out how to vote cards for Stephen Walker (Independent) in the LC for South Metro has told me that the ALP people at her booth were wearing blue shirts almost identically to the ones worn by the Liberals there….a little dishonest and it smacks of desperation IMHO!
While of course it would be sweet to see the Tories win something, 1V1V may end up being the only thing keeping the corrupt Carpenter Government in power.
You’re welcome. Always appreciate your contributions to this blog and others.
GP @ 147
Why bring that up now or are you just a cirritating unt?
No 158
I resent your thinly veiled, expletive-laden attacks.
Steady on Albert. Is that really necessary?
Will there be an internet stream like the NT election?
Or will us folk not in WA and without Pay-TV be forced to lisen to the radio stream?
We want Antony…
101 ABC will be streaming TV coverage online from 8.30 eastern at http://www.abc.net.au/news.
Ryano if your still here vote conservative- it seems to be your genre ignorant or selfish. You’ll find at least one of those ideals in every good conservative. ask not what you can do for your country, but what your country can do for you, how much you can get and screw everybody else.
Both the radio and tv coverage will be streamed on the web from 6pm Perth time. The buttons for it will go up at 6pm western time, the same time as the web results service starts publishing.
They don’t put the streaming buttons up until something is available.
Glen
I just voted myself at Wilson Community Hall and was surprised to see the ALP workers in blue t-shirts, the Libs in yellow and only one other person handing out htv (which I never take as a matter of principle – I don’t need anyone else to tell me how to vote – take note Ryano).
Seemed a bit odd to me and I did a bit of a double take on the colours.
Who was the one other person VPL?
Hello from sunny Melbourne!!
This looks an Interesting Election! this looks like being the closet election since the 1999 Vic! I’m looking at these polls and wondering if as the polls show there is a swing on I’m wondering what seats could defly the swing and if there is a bolt out of nowhere which seat could fit that and why!
I’m tipping a narrow win for the ALP!
Like I said – I don’t take htv so I’m not sure but I got the impression he might have been CDP.
Is that the new colour: Costello Yellow?
Ryano (136)
If you’re THAT confused informal is probably your best bet.
Thanks Anthony!!
I’m not sure but how could anyone think the live streaming would be up before it becomes live scary thing is they vote HAHAHA!
168 Rx – LOL
Costello Yellow!! yes just follow the yellow brick road!!
Labor will be finished in WA! Next is the clown Rudd!
Thanks to Ron, Bird of paradox and Ozymandias for your responses. I’ve got some food for thought, I take my vote extremely seriously. Both major parties are in a sad state of affairs, and the fact that I am/was undecided with -4 hours left to vote says something…. I think with very, very, very deep reservations I will preference Tony McCrae. It comes down to the trading laws, unfortunately and ironically if the Liberals stood as a more economically liberal party here in WA I would have gone for Mike Nahan (Liberal). That and the fact that Mike Nahan (being an American expat and former head of a conservative think-tank) is probably gunning for the Republicans in the US. Yes that’s right, I’m voting against a candidate, partly based on the US election, in the WA state election… go figure!
But if the conservatives won and Mike Nahan won, the libs may adopt a better fiscal position, but again their social conservatism sickens me. I’m so torn, but I guess the Labor option is less of a gamble.
I reckon 34 labor
If the Libs go down, i hope at least they win Nedlands and Alfred Cover, damn independents taking away Liberal seats!
Also considering the Nats will most likely be down 1 MP to 9 in Federal Parliament today, shouldnt Truss and Nelson work out a national merger of the two parties before every other Nat seat turns gray.
“yes just follow the yellow brick road”
With Downer as Dorothy, Cossie as the lion, of course, Johnnie as tin man and Ruddock as the man of straw. Brendon as Toto.
Aristotle
#150
That was alot of work you’ve put into trend analysis & sure everyone including me is appreciate It is true Labors prinmary vote has dopped overall alarmingly due partly to a poor electon campaign , Carpenter ‘personality’ factor and policy emphasis wrongly on ‘big picture issues’ rather than ‘bread & butter’
However I’m more optimistic than you on curent figure because I not take notice of Westpoll and rely on Newspoll which shows overall 50/50 However split shows in Country Labor down to 26% on Primarys down 7% and Libs/Nats up to a massive 60% oon promarys up 9% , making a net Country movement of 16% …which has skewed th overall State figures
IF Electon is to be decided in Perth then Libs ar only up 2.6% on Primarys , making them ONLY level with Labor on primarys When one looks at all minor Partys for prefs that therefore will be crucial Greens out poll ‘others’ whereas last electon it was other way around so bulk preferncing will more favor Labor this electon
So am suggesting as per earlier post , IF Newspoll is accurate and th distributon of swinging votes to Libs reflect that Newspoll specificaly in marginal electorates & ‘land’ reasonably accross them , tink Labor just wins with 2 to 3 seats But then very late swings since that Newspoll can go either way & am not sure if any ‘event’ has occured to do so not living in WA
Sounds like the best idea this time around, Ryano.
Ryano #173 – Both Liberal and Labor are terrible when it comes to trading laws. I see little difference in their views or in policy during their respective terms in government. The Liberal Party is constantly torn between the ‘big-business’ end which favours deregulation and the small-business owners who like the status quo. Think very hard before you give your vote to McRae – if he wasn’t the Labor candidate I’d advise you to vote Labor, but he really deserves to go. Whatever it is, I hope you make the right choice.
Perhaps another reason for the decline in the ALP primary vote Ron, is that a vast majority of people expect the ALP to win and so some of the ALP supporters might feel comfortable in knowing that Carpenter will be returned, so are happy to send their first preference elsewhere.
Generic Person said.
“Since the Governor General has been an Australian citizen since 1965, the argument underpinning the republic collapses in full and should be ignored as the arrant nonsense of an arrogant former PM.”
Yep all that is left is to give the “queen of Australia” the flick. Thats the minimal option preferred by the political elite, from memory Paul Keating included.
Talking of Liberals/Wizard of Oz parody. Poster Acerbic Conehead does a beauty here:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/howards_a_lesson_for_second_coming/P25/
Acerbic Conehead
Sat 30 Aug 08 (12:47pm
(about two-thirds of the way down the page)
Thank goodness I didn’t have such a hard choice in Alfred Cove. Riverton really does have two rather poor candidates from the major parties. Unfortunate that the Libs chose to run Nahan, because McRae doesn’t deserve to win. Labor should have replaced him with a quality candidate who would have had a good chance of winning.
Generic Person
And as it has no consequences I assume you will support putting an end to the “queen of Australia” to nonsense.
I’m gazing into my crystal ball, laying out my tarot deck, juggling the bones and after all of that scientific hard work i’m tipping a labor win–if they lose it’s rigged and i choked in the fog of incense for nothing
It’s just a feeling but I reckon the Libs are gonna win Morley
Hey Glen @ 156… out of curiousity, how did your mum come to be handing out HTVs for Steve Walker? Friend of a friend?
No offense to ppl from WA, but from my perspective you have the worst opposition in the country. It looks to me that carpenter has made an attempt to clean up the labor party and to kick him out would send the wrong message to politicians throughout Australia. Governments will become less open and transparent. In the big picture i think individaul members are largeley irrelivant as they will all vote the way their party does anyway.
That the Liberals have a ’sniff’ of victory after having 4 different leaders in 2-3 years and have had 4 of its seats abolished while the ALP ‘received’ 6 extra notional seats is remarkable.
Carps and his corrupt government dont deserve another 4 years, how on earth can anybody reward a government for corruption (especially one that saw 5 Ministers sacked)???? Carps also called an election 6 months early to stifle the Libs chances to look like a solid and credible choice, so once again outside factors, Carps calling the election so early and 1v1v are the only barriers to the election of an honest government in WA.
I hope Colin wins, but considering the seats required, its going to be tough. Still the people of WA voted Liberal in 2007 in the face of Kevin 07 mania, so why would they change their votes and back a corrupt ALP Government they’d more likely be drawn to Colin and the Libs.
Cliffhanger in the end though is my final prediction.
yes Aristotle 3180 , that is a good point you raise & perhaps an incentive for that ‘leaked’ Labor internal polling early in week showing a 7% swing away
Always hav wondered about MSN ‘narrative’ presenting big Labor wins & whether that influences higher ultimate minority party votes or informals or ‘protest’ votes but hard to tell
187
SR – no she and i went to hear Walker speak at a town hall meeting with Phillip Nitschke. He’s essentially running on a single issue in South Metro, to introduce dignity in death legislation (euthanasia) laws into the Upper House and to have a conscious vote on the issue and she like 80% of the rest of Australians think people should have that choice/right.
“Still the people of WA voted Liberal in 2007 in the face of Kevin 07 mania” – If you consider a 2% swing acroos the board to the ALP as voting Liberal.
I can’t see how the campaign finish against the background of NSW issues would not have cut a couple of points off Labor since the newspoll was taken.
Predition : Moderate Liberal Win
Glen, I don’t think you should overlook the fact that Burke has had his fun with BOTH the major parties, and there was a swing towards Labor in WA during the Kevin 07 mania, as you put it.
@Antony Green,
Is there a reason the Election Coverage is not shown on ABC2 or ABC3?
It’s just repeats here in SA on ABC2. Paralympics are to be shown on ABC1 and 2 according to the TV Guide. No reason your excellent coverage could not be shown Australia wide.
Maybe you could lodge that as feedback?
Thanks again!
Just heard that the first 50 ballot papers distributed for the Leg Council at Hannans Primary School in Kalgoorlie were North Metro Ballot papers and not M&P ballot papers.
Whoooooooooops!
Diana im not and NCB springs to mind too, but 5 Ministers did resign and Carps did relax the bans Geoff put in place, thus WA was handed the most corrupt Government since Brian Burke ran the joint.
The people wont stand for corruption especially in government and will not reward them for it that’s why the Libs have a sniff of a win. Diana, if that’s the case and given Labor only won Hasluck whereas the Libs won Swan and Cowan. The Libs also held its marginals. Yes Labor improved but the State still went solidly to the Coalition as it usually does.
Glen @ 189
At least they have the courage to sack their corrupt politicians. Unlike a former foreign and trade minister who kept their jobs. I also never understood how people can critisise Carpetner for calling an early election. If he was purley making a political calculation he would have done it earlier before the liberals had the chance to dump Buswell.
No 184
There is no such thing as a minimalist change Charles. What the republicans want is wholesale change of the constitution; essentially a vote of no confidence in one of the most stable democracies in the Western World.
198
Scotty, until you come up with proof they were corrupt that’s slander.
GP, if i had to swallow a Republic (which i wouldn’t like), id basically want the GG renamed as President, that would be all id be wanting. If the Hard Line Republicans got their way, we’d be having 50 referendums on the Constitution!
Ryano previous post reminds me of the 99 Vic election when in the 400 metres from home to booth I changed my mind several times finished up voting for my then Independant MP then watched my Bombers lose! the joy of living in Frankston East!
Glen
The idea that the Australian Wheat board could have done what it did without the knowledge and consent of the federal government is laughable. If not corrupt they were incompient. Technically this is my opinion and thus not slander.
Glen @ 191
You would be interested to read this piece celebrating our polity by Peter Hartcher in the SMH http://www.smh.com.au/news/peter-hartcher/palins-prolife-code-loud-and-clear/2008/09/04/1220121427304.html
How will the Nats vote if it comes to a confidence vote? They have said they will not form a coalition, will they support the party with the most seats?
What other hung parliament scenarios are there?
If the Liberals are like the Wizard of Oz who plays Elphie! I’m not sure how Julie and Sophie look painted green!
Scotty claiming people are corrupt without any evidence is slander even if it is your opinion.
The CCC evidence on those 5 Ministers is beyond doubt, i even think the people who do vote Labor today will be unhappy about doing so given how corrupt the Government had become after Geoff.
Glen is right! calling someone corrupt is slander! in many ways its a cheap shot but they seems to be the ways of politics in this country for we tend to find it easier to name call than debate!
204
ruawake – unless they are mad (which they probably are), the Nats would form a quasi minority administration propping up a Barnett Government, but this would require giving them a large share of mining royalties. Still i cant see them propping a Carpenter Minority government, (even though in SA the Nats have made a deal with the ‘devil’).
The Nats would not form a coalition with the Liberals, according to them they want the balance of power and will milk it as much as they can. So in return for mining royalties, the best Colin could get out of them in a promise to back them in votes of no confidence.
Still the Independents could come into play too.
Here are the swings to Labor last Federal election. Substantial in some seats.
Brand 1.0% to ALP ALP RETAIN
Canning 4.0% to ALP LIB RETAIN
Cowan 2.5% to LIB LIB GAIN
Curtin 1.0% to ALP LIB RETAIN
Forrest 4.6% to ALP LIB RETAIN
Fremantle 1.4% to ALP ALP RETAIN
Hasluck 3.1% to ALP ALP GAIN
Kalgoorlie 3.7% to ALP LIB RETAIN
Moore 2 1.7% to ALP LIB RETAIN
O’Connor 3.8% to ALP LIB RETAIN
Pearce 3.9% to ALP LIB RETAIN
Perth 2.1% to ALP ALP RETAIN
Stirling 0.8% to ALP LIB RETAIN
Swan ALP 0.2% to LIB LIB GAIN
Tangney 3.1% to ALP LIB RETAIN
One of the things that has hurt the Liberals in recent times has been the lost of seats to Independants (Churchlands & Alfred Cove)
hmmm, my beloved crows have lost, it looks like Briggs will win Mayo and we cant get live cover for W.A. i think i’ll sit in a corner and sulk!
Is that a typro for you have Moore swinging by 21.7% or am I missreading your post.
“but 5 Ministers did resign”
And six during Howards first months as PM as he tried to match labors standards of accountability then thew away any standards as he realised he was losing too many ministers.
“Amanda Vanstone is the latest minister the PM has let shirk accountability.
These are the best of times to be a federal minister or a departmental head.”
However, if you are one of John Howard’s ministers, different rules apply. In a situation that recalls the Seinfeld episode in which the appalling George Constanza tries everything to get himself fired from the New York Yankees organisation, including dragging the World Series trophy around behind his car in the office parking lot while yelling abuse through a bullhorn, if you’re a federal minister, it’s hard to get sacked.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/shaun-carney/howard-ministers-are-bloody-hard-to-sack/2005/07/15/1121415624454.html
Albert while i dont agree with Palin’s social policy, i do agree that she has more experience to be President than Obama.
Writing two memoirs does not qualify you to be President, you need A-Executive Experience or B-Have actually done something in the Senate (ie drafted policy). Something McCain and Palin have.
The elephant in the room is that as much as people trash Palin her CV would put her well above Obama’s in who should be President.
Without changing the topic! Obama’s lack of experiance is a bigger issue than the level of experiance Palin has for he is running for the President while she is running for the Vice-President.
Judy! is today becoming your September the 16th! I feel your pain even if you are a Crow supporter
Ummm Gary…aren’t you forgetting the 2PP for 2007???
Liberal Party of Australia 53.26 –2.14 11 +1
Australian Labor Party 46.74 +2.14
Played out in the WA election the Liberal Party would achieve a 6% swing and Carps would be thrown out!
@Judy. I hear from several sources that lots of people are taking HTV’s from Independents…Still hope!
My prediction is:
Labor 30
Liberal 24
Nats 3
Ind 2.
Giving Labor a majority of one.
Would one of the independants be a candidate for speaker?
Moore is 1.7%
So Glen, what’s the correlation between the federal voting pattern in WA and state voting?
Any exit polls? C’mon Glen give the world a chance, when the democrats get in the entire planet breaths a sighe of relief. My only concern is someone will assasinate Obama.
No more about Palin or I will post my joke and william might boot me off.
The correlation is why should these people be changing their votes to a corrupt Labor Government they’re more likely to stick with who they supported a year ago, the Liberals. It is not a certainty but it could be what gets Barnett over the line.
Wont Moore be won by the Nats?
Folks, this is WA’s day and WA’s thread.
217 Glen – Fair comment Glen. Then really we are looking at the second election this year taking place in what is essentially a conservative electorate, the NT being the first.
Any exit polls I say? Any party faithfull have any info?
That’s true, but didn’t the NT Chief Minister call an early election too?
But the Libs are about as far behind 9 seats as the CLP was so even with such a protest vote NT Labor held power, still the trouble is coming off a low base.
Most people hate going to the ballot box early than necessary, im surprised at the NT result i must say, but the swings will not be that high in WA i reckon. They wont need to be for a Liberal Government to be formed.
If anything will get the ALP over the line, it’s 1v1v.
I wonder how the Brisbane Lord Mayor is feeling right now?
SR is right! what times do the polls close (Melbourne time)
Wonder what effect Orkopolous boy sleazy Reesy will have on the ALP in the statewide NSW local government elections on 13th September?
Glen
You seem to be saying one vote one value is a bad thing? I think the term used before was gerrymander.
Trivia…what was the Last elected State/Territory Non-Labor Administration???
Glen.
I accept that both parties have had people in them who have been corrupt. You seem to immaturley pretend only labor politicians have been corrupt. You seem to overlook the adverse findings about liberals such as John McGrath and Anthony Fels.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23849358-5017005,00.html
You are making this about me. Tell me how AWB was able to break United Nations sanctions being enforced by the federal governments then. How could they have known Alia was part owned by the iraqi government? If the government was doing its job this should not have happened.
On topic, please.
Scott, i can only pray.
Do you think he sits and watches Rod?
I’ll email to you mine is centaur_007@yahoo.com
1997 SA Election!
Nope, 1998 ACT election formed a minority Liberal Government under Kate Carnell.
“Do you think he sits and watches Rod?”
As you can see William watches all, he never rests.
Ouch!
#222 – I recall lots of people taking HTVs from the independent in our seat at the 2006 Victorian election too. They obviously took no notice of them as I would estimate that 20%, at most, of the voters for that independent actually followed the ticket in their preference order.
Milko, pull your head in, that inference is slanderous and a bit sick no matter who you vote for, having a go at a pollie on what they’ve done themselves or what their party has done is fair game, but slurs like that are below the belt–along with stuff about their families..
Glen says: “The correlation is why should these people be changing their votes to a corrupt Labor Government they’re more likely to stick with who they supported a year ago, the Liberals.”
So, who in the WA Labor Party has been convicted, or even charged, with corruption?
And didn’t the election a year ago vote on the federal government, not the state government? Haven’t you noticed that in the last decade the pattern of federal voting doesn’t match state voting?
Don’t let the facts get in the way of a conservative narrative.
Glen.
Who held the balance of power and allowed Ms Carnell to form Govt. ?
Hint he is on the ABC and his last name begins with Uhlmann.
wbj asks: “who in the WA Labor has been convicted, or even charged, with corruption?”
The question should be reformulated to:
Whom should be charged with corruption?
RU
I don’t think it was Uhlamnn even though he was a member of that party, think it was Osbourne.
ABC TV coverage will be streamed online.
Rod
The Osbourne independants got two, The Ex Footy Player and Uhlmann.
Glen
I drew your attention to the article by Hartcher to make appoint that here in Australia we are pretty civilised in our debate. I mean you (ie. one) can still be a party (eg. Liberal) supporter and have your views on issues like euthanasia recognised and respected within the party…
What’s that about Uhlmann? CHRIS Uhlmann? Was he a politician? If so, for whom?
You can hear Paul or “Ozzie” commentating on real football (as opposed to kick ‘n’ giggle or Futbol) on NSW ABC Local Radio most weekends…
253 Bushfire – I don’t know myself but do you really have to ask?
Uhlman once stood as a candidate, independent unless I’m wrong. Which election, and whether state or federal, I know not.
Albert
I don’t know if that liberal indulgence would apply these days in the NSW Liberal party unless you oppose euthanasia.
Enjoy my exciting WA election day slide show.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/30217152@N05/
“Late in 1977 I believed I was being called to work in the Church. (I can’t remember why, but I was playing a lot of football at the time and suffered many sharp blows to the head). I left school in 1978, moved to Sydney and joined the Marist Fathers. By mid-1982 it became apparent to all that I had misheard my call, and on emerging into the workforce, I was surprised to discover that my considerable academic achievements thus far (which included the much-coveted Associate Diploma in Religious Studies) had not equipped me for any other job.
There followed “the wilderness years”, which ended in 1988 with the completion of my BA in Communications. The following year I left Sydney and joined The Canberra Times as perhaps the world’s oldest cadet. I covered a number of rounds, including the formative years of the ACT Legislative Assembly. In 1992 I moved on to the federal Parliamentary Press Gallery. In 1993 I left the Times to edit the ill-fated Canberra Weekly.
I spent a year in India in 1996 and on my return joined the ABC as a producer. In 1998 I jumped the fence, briefly, and stood with the Osborne Independents in the ACT election.”
Chris Uhlmann.
Lot of talk here about Labor’s primary vote going to the Greens, and the assumption that it will return to the ALP on the 2PP in enough numbers to let them fall over the line.
The first point is certainly true, but I’d submit that the second may not….Labor has spent the last week of the campaign talking up uranium mining of all things. A total non-issue for most voters…except green ones. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Labor’s research is showing less then expected Greeg preference flows, and they’ve been trying to scare those votes back into the 2PP cart. If that’s the case they might well be gone tonight.
Very ignorant question, is WA optional preferential or full preferential?
Sorry to ask such a silly one but it’s vital to the issue of where those Green votes are going to end up.
Full.
full preferential
Cheers
full preferential Dyno
248 ESJ
The best version I’ve heard of your comment is Michael Kinsley’s Law of Scandal
His is also famous for defining what’s known as a Kinsley gaffe. “A gaffe is when a politician tells the truth.”
but some voters always try to get too clever, which is why i am leaving soon to scrutineer in Kalamunda
Interesting morning on a polling booth. I think the ALP primary will suffer (any long term Govt does when trying for re-election i think) but i also think that a lot of those voting green will preference ALP as they just cant stomach Chairman Sniff still being on the shadow cabinet and still see the Libs as the party of R&P especialy re: logging and uranium.
I dont think the supposed “corruption” issues with the ALP (which are old hat anyhow) really figure with voters over here, or at least are less of an issue than the seat sniffing, bra snapping, antics of the shadow treasurer. That was really off putting for a lot of people. Not so much what he did as he is a known moron, but that the Liberal Party continued to support him as leader for some time afterward.
Apparently my wife’s fascist friend (who she always sounds out pre-election) is voting ALP this time around and that ussualy a good indicator.
We had a lot of absentee voters (it was a CBD Freo booth) so even though it was a strong ALP seat i would have thought we would see it if there was a real anti-alp feeling. It just wasnt there. I reckon that Carps has another term in him.
That said, i think this is one the libs have to win. If they dont, Barnett is out of there, Chairman Sniff is back in charge, and the State Libs will show us whole new ways to disintigrate that have never been contemplated before.
Hope the Nats do well this time, but will be interesting to see if they stick to their position of no coalition.
Leader on the HTV?
I haven’t seen it in this thread, so forgive me if i am repeating something discussed
I have seen HTV cards from a few seats today and one of the differences between the LIb and ALP cards is that ALP have Caprs on theirs and Libs don’t have Colin.
Is this clever on either sides behalf?
Shoot me for saying this, but I noticed many voters look at the fresh atractive profile of the ALP candidate for Kalamunda in the top left corner of the HTV with favour.
They would reach out to take it and then see Carps in the bottom right corner of the HTV and hesitate if not withdraw.
Any thoughts?
Optional preferential was introduced in NSW by the Wran Labor Govt, with the aim of exhausting Lib/Nat votes against the ALP in 3 cornered contests.
It is a great irony that the Greens now exhaust and waste votes that came from the ALP.
I dont have a problem with OPV, you shouldnt have to vote for a party or group you dont like.
Leader on HTV PtII
The other point to consider is that many voters see Colin as being the only competent polly left in Lib ranks, so why not put him on the card?
btw, i use the word “many” too “many” times- and i have told myself a billion times not to exagerate.
From distant South Australia, I was wondering why the ALP was carrying on about uranium mining and genetically modified crops ….. of course, to try to lock in Green preferences. Thanks for the tip up above.
RU
Uhlmann stood but I don’t think he got in, I think Rugendyke was the 2nd Osbourne candidate elected.
At the risk of poking a hornet’s nest let me just say that IMHO any sane Green would be in favour of uranium mining and nuclear power plants. If you accept anthropomorphic global warming then, short of a return to the middle ages, it our last best bet. Even Bob Carr agrees with me and that’s saying something!
So the Greens and Bob Carr are a perfect match? No.
To think the Greens would ever go within an inch of anything with the word nuclear in it is… insane.
Who or what are the Osbourne candidates? What were they about? Does anyone know?
rod
You are correct.
HSO in the first couple of elections there were even groups like No Self Government Party who won 4 seats or Abolish Self Government who won 1 seat. ACT politics is crazy, also they had the Residents Rally group that toppled a Labor Government there too.
VPL @ 275. Far from poking a hornet’s nest, you’ll probably get ignored, or from me, for goodness sake, go and do the research on why it’s a no brainer to build nuclear power plants in Australia – cost/benefit analysis 101 will do, and why places without access to alternative sources of base load power might be willing to part with their readies for Australia’s uranium.
Glen, do you know anything about what the Osbourne people were on about? What was their political position?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Osborne
Large bests of $15,000 and $20,000 placed on the ALP being returned in WA.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24303104-421,00.html
Of course, that should read ‘large bets’
I cast my vote in the new seat of Cannington this morning at the Sevenoaks booth. To my shock horror, the liberals actually had more people manning the booth than the labor party.
In fact, there were a bunch of bullshit hot chicks handing out liberal how to vote cards. Why are hot chicks helping the Tories?
Thanks LTEP. I think those large bets are very significant. The big punters get it right more often than not.
New thread.
ABC Radio stream begins
http://www.abc.net.au/perth/onair/720stream.asx