The last polls of the WA election campaign are in: 50-50 in Newspoll, 51-49 to Labor in Westpoll. The respective samples are 1802 and 402. Westpoll also has marginal seat polls of around 400 voters, showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Scarborough, 56-44 Kingsley, 59-41 in Kalamunda and 52-48 in Collie-Preston, while Labor leads 50.5-49.5 in Riverton. None of these seats are must-wins for Labor.
The two-party figures conceal a collapse in the Labor primary vote, put at 35 per cent by Newspoll and 37 per cent by Westpoll (compared with 41.9 per cent in 2005). However, much of the lost vote is leaking to the Greens (12 per cent in Newspoll and 11 per cent in Westpoll, compared with 7.6 per cent in 2005) and coming back as preferences. Newspoll records by far the worst ever personal ratings for Alan Carpenter, with 42 per cent satisfied (down seven points) and 48 per cent dissatisfied (up eight points). Barnett is on 40 per cent and 43 per cent; Carpenter still leads as better premier 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Westpoll has the latter measure at 47 per cent for Carpenter and 27 per cent for Barnett, suggesting its smaller sample might be skewed to Labor.
Interestingly, Tony Barrass of The Australian talks of “Newspoll’s additional analysis in the 10 most marginal Labor seats” which “reveals an average two-party Labor vote of 48 per cent”. That amounts to a swing of 4 per cent, which would cost Labor nine seats and government if applied evenly across the 10 (unless John Bowler wins Kalgoorlie, as some are suggesting). However, Robert Taylor of The West writes that Labor are holding up relatively well in the southern suburbs, suggesting they should retain Jandakot and maybe even Riverton.
This raises the question of which seats are dragging up the average. Expectations are that John Castrilli will perform very strongly in his bid for re-election in Bunbury. It has been observed that Labor are struggling in the northern suburbs, which Westpoll backs up with a 6 per cent swing in Kingsley. This might have significance for Ocean Reef and Joondalup, notwithstanding that Labor has heavily targeted those seats while abandoning Kingsley. A Labor win in Jandakot could thus be cancelled out by a Liberal win in a northern suburbs seat further up the pendulum. That might mean Joondalup or perhaps Wanneroo, where new developments have been breaking out like acne over the past four years. Most of these have been concentrated around the new suburb of Tapping, whose booths split about 57-43 in favour of the Liberals at the federal election. Alan Carpenter could be found there yesterday campaigning at the local primary school.
Boy, this is going to be fun.
In the upper house, strong Greens polling suggests they should win four seats, although they have been disappointed before on election night. That should reduce Labor to 13 seats out of what is likely to be a combined “left” minority result of 17 seats out of 36. My tip for the 19 seats of the “right” is 14 Liberals, three Nationals (also performing strongly in Newspoll, confirming anecdotal evidence) and two Family First.
288 Comments
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Shannon, great work with the early Westpoll results – but I don’t think these marginals are “key”. Scarborough and Kalamunda are Liberal seats, and Kingsley might as well be. Labor can philosophical about Collie-Preston and very pleased about Riverton, assuming the results are accurate of course.
205
Gary Bruce Says:
August 23rd, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Carps has shown with the timing of the election that he is a master of election strategy. Poor Barnett shouldn’t play the game if he can’t hack it. Labor will win this with an increased majority.
What thread was that on ESJ? I want to look that up myself.
now THAT’S close
usually if its that close, the incumbent is favoured…
but, hey,who knows.
Yes the Labor Candidate for Southern River, Paul Andrews, is in trouble.
His health is appalling. Had his second, or was it third, kidney transplant.
His skin is awful and he has one bulging eye due to his stuffed renal system. No wonder he has made no public appearances.
Don’t really know why he is bothering.
I hope for goodness sake that McRae doesn’t win in Riverton. The other seats I couldn’t care less about, but that guy really needs to go. I’m surprised anyone would actually vote for him, it’s embarassing really.
LOL GB, chameleons oft change their arguments.
Normally I’d agree- but with the Libs running Mike Nahan the Neocon…..
I agree about McRae – can’t stand him myself but he does seem to work his electorate hard. And I am not exactly a fan of Nahan – although I have nothing specific against him. I wouldn’t be surprised if McRae held on but I agree that he deserves the boot IMHO
2 Edward StJohn – these are not my words. For a start I don’t call Carpenter “Carps”. Once again you have shown that you’ll say or do anything to make mischief.
Using Antony Green’s calculator, the preferences Westpoll gives would indicate a 1.3% swing to the Liberals, with the ALP retaining Ocean Reef, Riverton, North West and Swan Hills. If the polling in Riverton is properly indicative of the electorate, the ALP will be pleased, as bloody close as that margin is.
The Newspoll variant tells a more harrowing tale: most of the marginals fall into the Liberal hands, but the swing stops dead at Jandakot, which is retained by a 1.3% margin. The next two seats are Joondalup and Forrestfield, which are both needed for the Liberals to win parliament in their own right. According to Newspoll, their margin sits at 2.1% and 2.2% respectively.
Lateline Video on Newspoll.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/09/05/2357042.htm
GB 9 – Did you mispeak?
12 Edward – I’ve gone through all of the threads related to the WA election looking for that posting. IT DOESN’T EXIST. You are a liar.
Edward, when you DO post a quote, post the link to the comment !
Believe me Frank he can’t. Those are not my words in any way, shape or form.
Aound a 6-7% swing to the Liberals in Kingsley. I wonder if that will be repeated in other northern seats. If so, the Liberals might have a chance in Wanneroo, Joondalup and Ocean Reef, maybe just clinching victory for them. Anything but a minority govt with Nationals please!
For a start I don’t know Carpenter well enough to know whether he is great at strategy or not and I’ve never suggested Labor would wiin the election easily. This is just plain mischief making.
I don’t know what I’ve done to get up your nose ESJ but I’m glad I have.
I wonder whether the Liberal Candidate in Wanneroo not declaring a campaign donation during a recent Council Election Campaign will be a disadvantage for the Libs ?
16
Gary Bruce Says:
August 16th, 2008 at 9:29 am
But Steve there has been a massive shift back to Labor from the last Westpoll. I bet they didn’t couch the latest results in those terms though.
Er GB, I think you’ll find you’re bring wound up.
Eddie you dunce, you are meant to link to the ORIGINAL post !
19 Edward – that I recognise and I stick by it. Now give me the thread to -
“205
Gary Bruce Says:
August 23rd, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Carps has shown with the timing of the election that he is a master of election strategy. Poor Barnett shouldn’t play the game if he can’t hack it. Labor will win this with an increased majority.”
You’re right 20 Fulvio and if this isn’t trolling I’ll eat my hat.
Frank #18 – Perhaps. Although I don’t think anyone else really takes notice of these things other than us hardcore addicts. I notice the story’s also been buried by the media, given that they’re completely biased in this state. Hardcore addicts sounds like some sort of disease, doesn’t it? Remind me never to use the phrase again.
Some seats quoted by Westpoll were irrelevant and some important ones excluded
Why not figures on Darling Range & Oceean Reef , far more relevant than Scarborough & Kalamunda that ar obviously liberal Where’s North west or Swan Hills as well
Irrspective there ar large varying anti Labor swings in that poll in Kingsley , Collie , Scarborough & Kalamunda , YET not in Riverton
Westpoll scan:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/thewest060908.jpg
It really frustrates me not being able to watch it live on TV. (I’m in Adelaide)
Is it SO HARD for the ABC to put the coverage on ABC2 or ABC3?
…It must be!
It’s not on ABC 2 or 3 because of the Paralympics.
Your only choice is ABC Local Radio in Perth streaming
William, any juicy bits in “West Watch” ?
ESJ, I’m not sure what you were trying to achieve with #2, but please stop it.
Editorial backs Labor!
William, can you please post Newspoll/Westpoll from Election day 2005 for comparison ? I’m pretty sure they were similar.
19 William- …and somewhere in an infernal dimension, the Prince of Darkness felt an overwhelming urge to turn on his heater.
I’m utterly amazed, considering their best efforts to suggest otherwise.
#31 – you are joking…
Oh, that was meant to be “31-William.” My apologies for the error, and this double-post.
Wonder if th Westpoll selection of seats I questoned in #25 is “a narrative” OR poor psephological selections
Why would a paper do it’s best to bring a government down in every way except the editorial? Is it having two bob each way?
What is The West playing at? They really can’t make up their minds, can they? Well, I’ve decided who I’m voting for. I’ll give you a hint – it starts with the letter ‘L’
And take out my one age fraudulent newspoll response and does that move it slightly to the libs?
I really do feel like a 34 year old. A 24 year old sometimes.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/wanewspoll-6sep.pdf
There has been a crash in the ALP primary
38, the west editorial favoured labor last electiion, in spite of their best efforts to tear labor down prior to election day. Armstrong uses the editorial on election day as a cynical strategy to defend himself and his excerable paper against any press council complaints, ie how can you accuse me of bias if on election day i tell the punters to vote labor, cynical, transparent and childish on line with the west philosophy.
And how is it for the ten year old Albert Jacobs for the Libs in ocean Reef? Is he in? Like the Chinese running underage gymnasts in the olympics.
The Who Do You Think Who’ll Win is the similar to the internal ALP polling ALP 57% Lib/Nat 27%
Te west did EXACTLY the same thing last time, pulling the rug out from under Barney last time with late editorials. Barnett will not be pleased with West if he loses.
The West editorial:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wested060908.gif
The headline of the west editorial is so ambiguous that it really makes no difference. Very few people will read that before voting, which is something the west probably realises.
And neither will Barry Court.
Quite frankly, what’s left of the West Australian’s readership is so far to the right that Jesus Christ himself couldn’t convert them into Labor voters. Ann of Perth and her evil sisters are probably the only denizens left in that netherworld.
Anthony’s Calculator using Westpoll.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/calculator/?wa=-1.3&retiringfactor=1
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