The last polls of the WA election campaign are in: 50-50 in Newspoll, 51-49 to Labor in Westpoll. The respective samples are 1802 and 402. Westpoll also has marginal seat polls of around 400 voters, showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Scarborough, 56-44 Kingsley, 59-41 in Kalamunda and 52-48 in Collie-Preston, while Labor leads 50.5-49.5 in Riverton. None of these seats are must-wins for Labor.
The two-party figures conceal a collapse in the Labor primary vote, put at 35 per cent by Newspoll and 37 per cent by Westpoll (compared with 41.9 per cent in 2005). However, much of the lost vote is leaking to the Greens (12 per cent in Newspoll and 11 per cent in Westpoll, compared with 7.6 per cent in 2005) and coming back as preferences. Newspoll records by far the worst ever personal ratings for Alan Carpenter, with 42 per cent satisfied (down seven points) and 48 per cent dissatisfied (up eight points). Barnett is on 40 per cent and 43 per cent; Carpenter still leads as better premier 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Westpoll has the latter measure at 47 per cent for Carpenter and 27 per cent for Barnett, suggesting its smaller sample might be skewed to Labor.
Interestingly, Tony Barrass of The Australian talks of “Newspoll’s additional analysis in the 10 most marginal Labor seats” which “reveals an average two-party Labor vote of 48 per cent”. That amounts to a swing of 4 per cent, which would cost Labor nine seats and government if applied evenly across the 10 (unless John Bowler wins Kalgoorlie, as some are suggesting). However, Robert Taylor of The West writes that Labor are holding up relatively well in the southern suburbs, suggesting they should retain Jandakot and maybe even Riverton.
This raises the question of which seats are dragging up the average. Expectations are that John Castrilli will perform very strongly in his bid for re-election in Bunbury. It has been observed that Labor are struggling in the northern suburbs, which Westpoll backs up with a 6 per cent swing in Kingsley. This might have significance for Ocean Reef and Joondalup, notwithstanding that Labor has heavily targeted those seats while abandoning Kingsley. A Labor win in Jandakot could thus be cancelled out by a Liberal win in a northern suburbs seat further up the pendulum. That might mean Joondalup or perhaps Wanneroo, where new developments have been breaking out like acne over the past four years. Most of these have been concentrated around the new suburb of Tapping, whose booths split about 57-43 in favour of the Liberals at the federal election. Alan Carpenter could be found there yesterday campaigning at the local primary school.
Boy, this is going to be fun.
In the upper house, strong Greens polling suggests they should win four seats, although they have been disappointed before on election night. That should reduce Labor to 13 seats out of what is likely to be a combined “left” minority result of 17 seats out of 36. My tip for the 19 seats of the “right” is 14 Liberals, three Nationals (also performing strongly in Newspoll, confirming anecdotal evidence) and two Family First.
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What’s the Front page of The West ?
Robert Taylor:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/thewestrt060908.gif
Frank: “Comeback Colin on verge of shock victory”.
Seeing those Westpoll figures makes me a bit more confidence of a Labor Victory at best, and Newspoll as well as a worst case scenario. I think I felt the same way in 2005 as well, when the Newspoll came out on Election Day – best sign – see how well staffed are the booths.
“There has been a crash in the ALP primary’
not necessarily , Libs/Nats hav not gained , variations ar between Greens and ‘others’ categories vs Labor vote and Newspoll hav had problems tracking those smaller Party suport nubers , and did so pre last Federal electon
IF newspoll hav accurately tracked then , then there methodology is still worth almost a further .505 to Labors vote compared to there 2 PP 51/49
(and Wespolls samples ar reely too small for a trend)
Did anyone see the tiny little story about WACOSS yet?
“Libs better for cost of living” or some such nonsense (sorry, can’t remember the exact quote – already thrown out my early edition of teh worst in disgust) was the spin they put on the WACOSS survey here:
http://www.wacosselection2008.org/
Click on one of the issues, and it will tell you how the parties rate on that issue as voted by respondents.
How are they still able to call it a newspaper…?
I bet that Headline will haunt the Libs if they lose.
It reminds me of that US Presidential Headline that became memorable for the wrong reasons.
55: Carpenter’s approval/dissapproval has also significantly moved.
Undecided are breaking to Barnett in the Better Premier figures
And this is the headline in question
http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/07/25/dewey_wins.jpg
My tip for the upper house: Labor 13, Greens four; Liberal 14, Nationals three, Family First two.
Tony Barrass in The Australian
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302085-5006789,00.html
Amazing, some of these “callers” voting for Barnett are basing it on Carpenter not appearing on 6PR.
Last few callers have been for Alan Carpenter.
Reading the newspoll figures the alp and greens primary in the metro area is 51 alone not including a split from the 11 for others, not looking too bad
Had closer look at that Newspoll and it gets better
Firstly , better Premier 48/35 , that should be close if there’s a big Liberal win
Breaking poll between City & Country , Labor & Libs/Nats ar equal 38% on Primarys , so can not see how Labor would lose but it may be a close win Greens out poll ‘others’ furthermore there’s th further reel Labor 2PP vote inbeded previously mentioned that Newspoll don’t calculate
so if Newspoll is accurate , Labor should win by 2 to 3 seats , assuming voters ‘land’ just reasonably in marginals as elswhere
Final result 6PR “Straw Poll”
Colin Barnett 27
Alan Carpenter 24
Based on phone calls and 2 emails, the emails went to Carpenter.
Van Onsolen.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302083-7583,00.html
I’ve got to tell you, the thought that the NSW situation might affect the WA election never entered my head for a second.
And the OO are living up to their name.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302144-601,00.html
Same here it’s like the people of Lyne & Mayo basing their vote on the WA State Election.
Yeh I think thats pushing it a bit
Most Western Australians dont know who is the Premier here, let alone NSW lol
“I’ve got to tell you, the thought that the NSW situation might affect the WA election never entered my head for a second.”
Quote first line:
“Granted chaos in the Labor ranks in Sydney is a long way from Perth, but it is hardly helpful for Alan Carpenter”
th long bow was explained of 1995 NSW campaign manager also contesting his seat , and now same situation in WA with Labor
So this long forgotten irrelevant thought entered this ‘oz’ writers head in a mainstream Newspaper article on 2008 WA election eve Creative would be one word for it
I wonder if these columnists will eat their words on Monday if the Government is returned.
I’ve rewritten my post, if anyone’s interested.
It looks like Labor will just barely scrape home.
I suspect Labor will narrowly lose as the swing will be stronger than expected, although it won’t be uniform.
I’ll be quite happy to be proven wrong.
“If Barnett wins, I think it will eclipse John Howard’s effort in 1996 as the greatest comeback in Australian political history.”
At least PVO doesn’t hide his colours, with some teachers, lecturers its hard to figure where they stand.
Both leaders with negative satisfaction ratings, could suggest lack of will for change?
Interesting about Family First being tipped to pick up two, would that have influenced Fieldings grandstanding this week.
I think Fielding and FF are aiming at getting the disaffected liberal voters, who think Nelson is too left, and the homeless One Nation.
At the end of day people won’t vote for a chubby bloke ahead of a statesman like premier. Call me fickle, but when Beazely was running against Howard I was working in the UK and was in close contact with this guy that headed up an international think tank. ” He said Australians won’t vote for a fat bloke, it never happens, it goes aginst the countries sporting psyche”.I’ve never forgotten those words. Carpenter by a nose.
I’ve got a good joke about Palin a moose and felatio. Where should I post it to get US exposure?
Out with it, centaur_007.
Outer Eastern, the Outer Southern Rail seats and the outter northern rail seats may tell an interesting story combined.
Outer East “we will get new rail”
Southern “we just got new rail”
Northern “we just got some new rail before last election but now its just ovecrowded rail without enough car parks”
I also think Darling Range and Riverton will be very interesting to watch tonite.
Darling range is a new seat and I believe it has a “tree change” demographic increase. Riverton I believe is becoming the new litmus test seat goig on results of last couple of elections and the fact the seat always gets plenty of media and polling focus.
William 30 -
Sorry, I’ll resist the temptation for more sport with our very own Baghdad Bob.
80 Edward – Well, you’ve shown us what you are really made of anyway and it aint pleasant.
Does anyone know if there will be live coverage of the election in the eastern states on free-to-air tv or radio?
I don’t why the NSW changeover is characterised as “chaos”. I posted a note somewhere here a few weeks ago to the effect that an ALP branch president had told me that a changeover to Rees was imminent. It is only Rurfax and News hax who are in any way taken by surprise. The dogs were barking weeks ago.
The Liberals need 52% of the 2PP vote to win, anything less and Carpenter gets over the line!
Frankly I don’t know whether to be offended by you all disagreeing with my theory or embarrassed that PVO ran with my comment from yesterday on the Iemma thread.
Diogenes Says:
September 5th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Couldn’t they have waited until after the WA election to have such an ugly brawl? I don’t know how much notice anyone in WA is going to take of this but it can’t help much. It does contribute to the meme that state Labor is falling apart and nees to be gotten rid of.
What’s PVO and who cares?
Sean at number 82,
I doubt it. Though ABC Perth radio will probably stream the coverage online, as ABC Darwin did the other weekend.
GB
See Frank at 66.
Well at least all that rubbish about a 7% swing to the Libs last weekend has been shown up for the crap it always was. I said at the time it was obviously a scare tactic from a government which knew the election was going to be perilously close and couldn’t afford to lose too many voters to a protest vote.
If I do say so myself, that theory now looks to have been right on the money.
Diogenes,
Stardom at last.
I note also that Tim Dunlop’s blog was quoting from (and naming) PB yesterday.
Haven’t read every post on this thread yet. Has anyone provided the latest betting figures yet?
Only Betfair is available today –
LABOR PARTY 1.4
LIBERAL PARTY 2.0
William
Are you still sticking with your prediction of a one seat win to Labor?
GB (92)
I may be wrong, but I don’t think Betfair can be taken as seriously as the other agencies, given the way they operate. Nevertheless, that still looks like a serious
tightening of the odds for the Libs.
Perhaps ABC2 will screen the WA election count?
ABC 2 has the Paralympics opening ceremony from 9:50, so it won’t be there. It’s not shown on the ABC TV schedule at all.
I think streaming 720 on the internet is the best bet.
Andos (96)
Not being an expert on these things, can you provide any more info about how I can access that site please?
It’ll be most likely streamed on the internet like the NT count.
Sounds like a late night in the East.
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