9.07am. There is now a notional count for Morley on the WAEC site (don’t ask me where it went last night), and it looks clear the Liberals have in fact won. So Labor needs to win Riverton, Forrestfield and Albany, and is not looking the goods in the former.
2.25am. Revised final call for the evening. The ABC gives the Liberals eight definite gains from Labor: Bunbury, Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Southern River and Swan Hills. However, I think Wanneroo can probably be added to the list. They also have their nose in front in Riverton and are very likely to pull further ahead in late counting, and a good chance of reining in Labor’s 166-vote lead in Morley and 242-vote lead in Forrestfield. However, Labor is 117 votes ahead in the notional Liberal seat of Albany, and the Liberals have lost Kalgoorlie to an independent likely to back Labor. If Labor can win three out of Riverton, Morley, Forrestfield and Albany, there might yet be a minority Labor government. However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting. Kwinana appears to have fallen to independent Carol Adams, so any Labor government would be hanging on for dear life with the support of two independents.
1.53am. Hmm – and we’ve also got North West as “Labor win” now. Would like a clearer idea of what’s happened here – possibly an unexpected Nationals preference flow. The WAEC site says 4729 to 3985, which is unequivocal. There might be life yet in this game.
1.16am. ABC computer has moved Wanneroo from Liberal “gain” to “ahead”. Labor in fact leads by six votes, but extrapolating the pattern of late voting from last time puts the Liberals 0.6 per cent ahead.
11.59pm. An intriguing development in Morley, which has gone from Liberal win to “ALP ahead” on the ABC computer, presumably involving official preference figures (the WAEC doesn’t have such a thing on its site as the original D’Orazio-versus-Labor count was junked). If Labor does win Morley, a majority for Labor plus Labor independents becomes mathematically possible again, requiring wins in Riverton (Labor trails by 32 votes), Forrestfield (leads by 242 votes) and Collie-Preston (leads by 416 votes). However, Labor tends not to do very well in late counting.
10.48pm. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.
10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.
10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.
10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.
10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.
10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.
10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.
10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.
10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.
9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?
9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.
9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.
9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.
9.17pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.
9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.
9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.
9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.
9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.
9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.
9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.
9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.
8.59pm. Regarding Fremantle: The gap between the Liberals and Greens is getting very wide though.
8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.
8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.
8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.
8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.
8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.
8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.
8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.
8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor. ABC has given Kwinana back to Labor, formerly given to independent Carol Adams.
8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.
8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.
8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.
8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.
8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.
8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.
8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Have added what I posted there below.
8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.
8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.
Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley
Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West, Wanneroo.
Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.
Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.
8.25pm. I’ve taken it over to Larvatus Prodeo.
8.13pm. Labor still ahead in Collie-Preston, just barely, with almost all booths counted.
8.10pm. ABC calling Joondalup for Labor, but I wouldn’t stake the bank on that yet.
8.08pm. Forrestfield “in trouble”, Steven Smith almost calling it.
8.06pm. Contest narrowing in Wanneroo …
8.06pm. But Matt Birney’s critique of The West up in lights.
8.05pm. Regarding the outages, I’ve just written to Larvatus Prodeo to see if I can do my live blog there, so keep an eye out there if I go down here for the long-term.
8.04pm. Matt Birney not sounding certain though.
8.01pm. Swing showing to Labor in Scarborough – probably an anomaly or an error.
8.00pm. Liberal also ahead in Forrestfield.
7.53pm. Labor out of the woods in Kimberley.
7.52pm. Now also chat of poor Greens preference flow, which if accurate means even bigger trouble.
7.48pm. Definite losses: Bunbury, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range. Big trouble: Wanneroo, Swan Hills, North West (though Swan Hills down from “LIB WIN” to “LIB AHEAD”). Possibly Labor gain in Albany, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nothing lately from Kalgoorlie.
7.46pm. So Mount Lawley gone. Smith seems to think Labor need to win all of Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup, Riverton, Collie-Preston, and at least one of those seems unlikely. Swan Hills, North West gone … you’d almost start thinking about calling it.
7.45pm. News flash – early double digit swing in Wanneroo, computer calls it for Liberal.
7.44pm. No, Labor now ahead in Collie-Preston. The moral of the story is that these early ABC calls are probably less reliable than normal due to the redistribution and perhaps the high non-major party vote.
7.42pm. ABC calls Ocean Reef and Collie-Preston for Liberal.
7.40pm. I’m back … Labor appear to be conceding Mount Lawley, but they’re holding on in Riverton and might even win Albany, although I wouldn’t be sure about the latter – this will be the rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths could still lose it for them.
7.35pm. Labor back ahead in Riverton.
7.32pm. Bad news continues to accumulate for Labor – Liberal now ahead in Riverton.
7.31pm. Liberal now ahead in Alfred Cove.
7.29pm. It’s calling Cannington for Liberal is well. Labor had better hope that there are a lot of anomalies coming through at the moment.
7.28pm. ABC calls Mount Lawley for Liberal with double digit swing.
7.27pm. ABC calls Pilbara for Liberal, which means it’s all over if so. I wouldn’t call that seat quite yet, but a number of bad results are accumulating for Labor.
7.25pm. Stephen Smith suggests trouble in North West as well. I believe what he just said about Riverton is out of date now, i.e. a new booth has been better for them.
7.24pm. One piece of good news for Labor: swing in Riverton a manageable 0.6 per cent with 8.9 per cent counted.
7.24pm. ABC computer has Liberals ahead in Kimberley with 7.9 per cent swing, 5.3 per cent counted.
7.18pm. Very ugly swing against Labor in Cannington also.
7.18pm. Third news flash: Also calls Southern River for Liberal. Huge trouble for Labor if this keeps up.
7.17pm. Another news flash: ABC calls Jandakot for Liberal, 10 per cent swing from 6.6 per cent. Big shock.
7.14pm. News flash: ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal. I wouldn’t quite call it yet: 6.6 per cent swing from 5.9 per cent counted not good for Labor though.
7.13pm. ABC calls Morley for Labor, but its judgements can be awry when independents are involved. John D’Orazio not looking in the hunt.
7.16pm. ABC calls Scarborough for Liberal, 3.9 per cent swing from 18.8 per cent counted.
7.13pm. I speak too soon – now “LIB AHEAD” by 0.4 per cent, 25.7 per cent counted.
7.12pm. Labor still highly competitive in Collie-Preston with 22.6 per cent counted.
7.10pm. ABC computer has “ALP AHEAD” in Albany, but only 5.2 counted.
7.09pm. First two Nedlands booths encouraging for Sue Walker.
7.09pm. First booth from Swan Hills, Gidgegannup Town Hall, gives Labor a dangerous 7.1 per cent Liberal swing.
7.08pm ABC computer calls Kalamunda for Liberals.
7.06pm. Labor might be a little troubled by 5.5 per cent swing from 5.5 per cent counted in Girrawheen, if it proves typical for the northern suburbs.
7.04pm. Labor doing a little better than I had expected in the first rural booths from Collie-Preston.
7.03pm. ABC computer calls Bunbury for Liberal – 9.5 per cent swing from 6.3 per cent counted.
6.58pm. Early Alfred Cove results show Janet Woollard might struggle to get ahead of Labor – down to Greens preferences. This from the Labor-voting end of the electorate though.
6.51pm. Two good early booths in for Labor from West Swan, maybe boding well for them in Swan Hills.
6.50pm. Julie Bishop reading too much into early Morley figures.
6.49pm. Very strong performance from Bowler also on early pre-poll votes.
6.47pm. Very encouraging first booth for John Bowler in Kalgoorlie – Kalgoorlie District Education Office, 434 votes.
6.42pm. Only 289 votes, but the Lower Kalgan Hall booth in Albany has swung heavily to Labor.
6.29pm. “Early Votes (In Person)” starting to appear – pre-polls, in other words.
6.28pm. Very first rural booths show encouraging signs for the Nationals.
6.00pm. Welcome everybody. Polling booths are now closed: very first results should be in from about 20 minutes. While away the time by viewing my election day snaps, and keep an eye on the tussle for Mayo in the thread below.
993 Comments
Buongiorno!
Any rash predictions?
From fellow commenters, I mean.
ABC Radio Streams begins
http://www.abc.net.au/perth/onair/720stream.asx
I’m holding out little hope for my ex-seat of Kingsley… fingers crossed for the rest of the state
ABC results pages up too.
Will Bowe, you were right. This IS going to be fun.
I’m holding out little hope for my ex-seat of Riverton too.
William – is the CDP seriously adopting a half-*rsed sign of the cross as their electoral symbol?
Neat way to offend both Heaven and Earth.
My impression in Kimberley is that there were a few baseball bats waiting for Carps today. Hope I am wrong but don’t think so.
Even the news is writing off Reece Whitby.
#7 Gra. Chris Dems
If people want to see what he means
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/09/06/state-election-live-and-worst-its-on
So who put their money where their mouth is?
I put $12 on the libs back when they were at $4.40. Couldn’t pass up those odds, they dropped down to $3.50 a week later (and pretty much stayed there).
The last of the big spenders.
Anyone got a link to the ABC TV Stream yet?
I love first results – Green and Labor tied, Liberals to win in a landslide.
Kinda hope that doesn’t happen.
Hang on, they’re test figures aren’t they.
Is that what we’re expecting?
that must have been a fun booth to be on
I want a TV stream. Bloody ABC. No link yet!
you have to wait until half past
ABC TV stream begins at 6:30. Brissy Rod beat me to it.
sorry Andos.
Ahh OK. I though they would start, since votes are coming in…Radio started at 6. Sorry for my impatience.
Can someone post the TV stream here once it’s up?
TV stream just came online.
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
Ouch. Well on those figures we’ll have an ALP-Nat grand coalition….ummmm
Stream is up, no election coverage yet.
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
It’s on now.
Coverage is up, here’s Kerry.
Got it
Just wanted to record the stream that’s all. Wish I could get it properly…Anyone taping it digitally?
What’s the WA elections site?
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au
ABC computer is giving 4 seats to Labor already, any idea which 4?
Steve Smith on the live stream seems to already be conceeding…
For God’s sake, please don’t leave completely off-topic comments on a live election thread.
antony latest seat gude
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/latest.htm
What, Kerry + Antony is what we live for. Hush, Bowe.
I was referring to something else, Oz.
?? I thought Steve Smith talking about the WA election was on topic… sorry.
so has Steve Smith conceded the election??
He was rather iffy about it all – sort of “if it’s close we’ll win”, but if it get’s away from the ALP early it’ll be a big win to the Libs. (very much like what the LIbs were saying last November…)
I was referring to something else, Grog.
Can someone tell an easterner just why it took so long for WA to discover one-vote-one value?
antony site showing 7 lab 2 lib 1 nat
Hey William, if you’ve got time to have a squiz, it would be interesting to know how many people are logged on to your site tonight. If you don’t mind telling.
Can someone please tell this easterner who is Steve Smith? (sorry for the ignorance).
The Foreign Minister.
Being an easterner is no excuse for your ignorance in this case
Steven Smith is the federal Member for Perth and our current Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Australian Foreign Minister
I assume it’s the federal Minister for Foreign Affairs…
Woollard looks gone on the early figures
Ask ur stupid questions tomorrow Grog.
Darn @ 43
Steve Smith is our Foreign Minister and is from Perth.
Found myself thinking the same question about Stephen Smith
quite funny really…he obviously needs a bit of international crisis to lift his profile
Who’s Carol Adams in Kwinana? 1 vote behind the ALP…?
I can see why the confusion…his name is not “Steven” but “Stephen”
Josh WK: Carol Adams is (not sure if current or past) mayor of Kwinana. Overlooked several times for ALP preselection, obviously cracked it with them and decided to go the independent route.
Adams has been angling for Labor preselection for a while now and threatening to run as an independent if she doesn’t get it. Kwinana mayor and Police Union lawyer.
Strong lead for ALP in Collie Preston. Is this the Collie booths?
Nationals are only on 6.42% of the vote… Greens in front on them on 9.08%…
Thanking you both.
Oh THAT Steve Smith. Yes I’m very familiar with the foreign minister. But with a name like Smith, there’s probably a few dozen of them scattered around.
49 peter geez, thanks.
Most the of the green preferences will go to labor which is why even with such a big swing they aren’t doing to badly.
would I be right in writing that if the ALP drop Kwinana then this could be an ugly night!
ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal – also Kalamunda and Bunbury. Might hold back on Swan Hills for a bit personally.
not looking good for Labor is it?
Sky has Libs on 6, Nats on 1 and ALP on 5 (seats won)
Where’s Gary Bruce to hype up the results for Labor? He is needed!
Green beating Lib on primary in Freo – it’s mostly because of Rottnest, but still.
Sick of these “cautiously” or “quietely optimistic” candidates.
could someone please explain the situation of Midland! is it only a two horse race!
Strange pattern in Moore. After 12.5% count, votes lost by ALP and Greens going to Nationals?!
Hope this keeps up.
It’ll be great to see Labor lose.
The OO looks very pleased with how things are going so far.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302144-601,00.html
Are the ABC’s 2PP booth adjusted? They seem awfully out of whack with the primaries and the ABC’s own predictions.
Is anyone prepared to call the result yet?
The ABC result is confusing for it has the Liberals ahead in Kimblerly yet when I took a closer look the ALP were well ahead.
Anyone prepared call it for the libs?
Lookin’ like Carps is gone…
Tempted – but I’ll wait until 10% of the vote is in.
Far too early to call it, but carps is definately in trouble.
Based on the ABC numbers I cannot call it for the numbers are all over the shop! maybe I’m missing something! but there is a clear swing to the Liberals.
I nearly didn’t turn up for the vote – waited till 5.30 – was nearly prepared to cop the fine, on principle… a pox on both their houses…
Cannington looks like being the bolta result!
WTF? 26.2% swing in Cannington?!
Ok, I’m assuming this is a seat of two politically diverse halves and we’re getting all the liberal booths? Otherwise, what’s the explaination?
ESJ -this must be a first- I am tempted to agree with you.
32% Labor Primary – tells you everything. People have clearly rejected Labor corruption.
I think labor’s gone…
It’s gunna go to pref’s…
Can someone tell me – Is Giz (Greens leader) male or female???
It’s OK Ozy wants you start it becomes a slippery slope to the dark side.
According to Anthony Green’s outline all the areas in Cannington were ALP leaning!
Oh she’s hard – that Greens Leader
I would say Labor will lose this one.
Coalition must be getting happier- something to take the poor results in lyne and mayo off the front pages……
I just wish I’d grabbed more of that $3.50 action.
Labor are sunk. This is over for Carps.
What did the ALP do in Albany – send all voters a brown paper bag with unmarked $100 bills in it?
12% counted and libs have gained 7 or 8. Not good but little or nothing in the way of preference counts as yet. Close, but ALP havent lost it yet.
Hey Gary! Where are you? We miss you…
It appears that Kimblerly and Pilbera have turned on the ALP! while this is a state poll I’m wondering if there is a warning shot being fired at K.Rudd in regards to proposed Carbon Trading.
Yes A-C where is the voice of the ALP tonight? Come out Come out wherever you are!
Mexican @ 97: not in your wildest dreams.
Greenhouse and ETS a plain winner for Kruddy.
OK,
Now I hate to gloat, the theory of alternate Fed and State governments, Ie, Who ever has the Federal Government better run for the hills at the State areana.
Having said that I thought that the ALP would limp back in . If this is the end of ALP in WA, watch out for the rest of the States, Interesting to see that the Greens are doing so well, Its their best field, Swing against the ALP etc.
86 Steve Annabelle, Giz Watson, the Greens leader in Western Australia is female and I suggest that your comment could be( I hope not ) is homophobic?????
Carpenter is gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
I’m assuming he was going off her name.
I’m hoping he was.
He’d better have been.
Thanks Peter J Nickol! I would have imaged this area to be strong mining communities like the La Trobe valley in Victoria.
Interesting for when the Liberals managed to hold all state and federal governments it wasn’t long before they started losing elections.
Mex: Prolly off-topic for this thread tonight.
Brenton – Not at all. As a NSW resident I have never heard of her. But on my computer stream of the ABC I was looking at a person who I assumed was male with a voice that was female. And I might say that a name like Giz doesn’t give me any clue either.
In Albany I tend to think we’re seeing rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths might turn it around.
It’s awfully quiet tonight (relatively speaking) where are our Labor supporters tonight?
Sky just called it 9 ALP, 9 LIB 2 NAT (seats won).
ESJ: I’d say the Labor supporters are out at election parties after manning booths all day.
105
Peter J. Nicol Says:
September 6th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Mex: Prolly off-topic for this thread tonight.
Very true and the ALP can still hold them but its interesting that the ALP Government during a boom could be in danger! I see the ALP looking very good in Kalgoorlie.
(107)
Sorry to be obtuse William. Turn it around for whom?
ESJ at 108
I agree- like listening to an echo when you ask the question
“is anybody out there…”
‘…out there…..
“…there…”
….ere….
…echo….etc
Is there a problem with the ABC Computer – for example the summary page of seats is showing a swing to the Libs in the Kimberley, but when you read to individual seat page the swing is actually to Labor +6.8 to Carol Martin and the prediction of a Labor hold?
ESJ,
maybe these guys aren’t used to losing.
Yes no more bragging about Colin’s canal is there?
Yeah, the ABC results are jumping around a bit. Looks good for the Liberals but wouldn’t count it yet
No offence, but someone with the moniker ‘Steve Annabelle’ thinks ‘Giz’(elle) is a unisexual name?!
A-C yes when the chips are down the blowhards disappear.
Grace (115)
There ALWAYS seems to be something wrong with the ABC computer on these nights.
A change wont hurt WA.
Frank Calabrese is out drowning his sorrows.
Goorrrnnnn…
Yes Fulvio, Frank and of course Gary Bruce, the first whiff of grapeshot and you guys scatter! Its not over yet – they (Labor) may still win and you guys have turned rabbit! Shame
Can’t see why the excitement about Cannington.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Cannington/District_results.php
Someone please tell me that Mike Nahan, the Lib candidate in Riverton, is not the former IPA man!
Just watching and waiting ESJ… knowing how confident you and Glen were in the run up to the last Fed election I am not too distraught at the moment.
How many seats has the ABC declared won for each party?
Bishop noted that greens preferences aren’t flowing to the ALP as strong as in the past.
Watching this makes me realise Hendo from Darwin is a political genius!!!
What a spanking eh!
Jeez another Toytown election – I just had a look at the WAEC site. Seats with <25k voters. We have more than that in one ward in Blacktown and yet Bill refuses to have a thread for NSW LGA elections next week.
Excitement about Cannington due to ABC data entry error.
(127)
To be fair Albert, both Glen and ESJ predicted a win for Labor at the Federal election as I recall.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
Steve Annabelle, you know the answers to the questions you’re asking — don’t be deliberately inflammatory.
Giz Watson’s a brilliant leader of the party, who happens to be a lesbian.
Rohan, I am sorry if I offended you or anyone else. You are wrong, I had no idea. And while we are on the point, what does her sexuality have to do with it?
Fremantle still a small chance to cause a Green-win upset: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/frem.htm
probable minority govt
Strange old turn up across the board – Briggs holds on barely against the Greens in Mayo, Oakeshott rips the Nats a new one and the Carps gets the seven shades of shit beaten out if him in the West.
Bottle of of red for who ever figures out a cogent pattern amongst that lot!
It’s over…
Anyone still prepared to say Labor can get up?
The tide has definitely turned for Labor at the State and Territory level! We will see more retirements at State level from Labor govts and better recruitment for the Libs. Should mean better govt all round. Whether this is the beginning of the turn of the tide or a harbinger is a different question.
William, check your email re login details.
138 Steve Annabelle – to be on this site and following this thread and the election one would have thought that you would have familiarised yourself with the candidates if your interest in the election was genuine. Details of each candidate are well and truly documented on various web sites
Scarborough not looking overly good for Libs.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Scarborough/District_results.php
Smith just called it for libs…
10 seats…
Possum…
perhaps the theme is that politicians are elected to do a job for a set period of time..
going to the polls early or taking your marbles and going home gives voters the shits..
Arin’t Democracy grand!!
Labor is gone…
Is there something weird with the ABC site? For some reason, it’s showing me only 13% of the vote counted. I could have sworn we were at a higher % than that.
147 dartboard – yep, never go early.
Albany and Kalgoorlie are interesting for Libs.
If the Liberals had held Scarborough and Albany I would be agreeing with you Scott but I’m inclinde to think the ALP may just hang on, with that I need a strong coffee!
Terrible night for poor old Ant – electoral commission making him more or less redundant… Smith and Bishop are all over him…
I should have included Kalgoorlie in the previous post.
WA will be ruined!
Jim Kuchel – it may surprise you but the SMH and the Daily Tele don’t expend much print on the WA election and even less on the WA Greens.
Greens leading Libs by 200 votes in Freo, with 320 Fundie votes to distribute. If Lib preferences flow to the Greens in similar ratio to equivalent seats over east then Greens would win on these figures. However, plenty of booths still to come.
GOODBYE WALL TO WALL LABOR!!!
God, I am not looking forward to the Liberal gloating – see ABC telecast for Bishop’s ranting about Burke, despite his connections with Liberals…
I wouldnt write off Carps as yet even though its a caning for ALP. There is a lot of counting to be done yet, and on the ABC coverage they are relying on scrutineers rather than preference count for a lot of this.
Outcome here could be a minority Liberal Government if the Nats stick to their guns on being a cross-benches party.
Am having trouble believing that we are likely to end up with Chairman Sniff the bra snapper as treasurer??? What you thinking you lot!!!!
Am also wondering what Colin Barnetts longevity is going to be? The liberal party its self and particularly the Courts detest him. Of course, whio else have they got??
Anyhow, will be interesting to see if the libs can come up with any policies.
Why is the ABC giving two LA seats to GRN?
Its over – by April 2011 the senior Labor rep at State and Territory level will be Hendo from Darwin
By December 2012 the senior Labor rep anywhere will be the Mayor of Blacktown Council.
The tide has turned.
Should Carles win Fremantle, this will be the first time the Greens have ever won a single-member electorate at a state or federal general election in Australia.
Go you good thing!
ABC predicting Green win in Freo.
Doubt it!
(but wouldn’t it be grand!)
Two things to come out of tonight (assuming the Liberals win, which they almost certainly will).
1. The bookies are not always right.
2. Campbell Newman is no longer the highest ranking Liberal in country.
Mcginty McGone?
To the Greens of all people – boy, you Sandgropers know how to do an election.
If only you’d give Antony some data!
The ABC site has been giving wierd results all night.
Eddie I’m sure the Mayor of Dandenong would considering himself the more senior
has anynone got a reliable hgh level figure for green preferences
Until otherwise indicaated, I’m working with 4;1 ALP to LNP
Earlier comments suggest otherswise but I got nothing better than history to work with
Labor are well ahead of the Greens in Fremantle.
Yes MB given the population shifts out of NSW that may well be the case by then.
imacca,
Admittedly I am only looking at the ABC web site (which has seemed erratic tonight) But I have to agree with your first observation – Carpenter doesn’t look quite gone at this stage.
confused? I am.
Imacca@162: Mate, it’s over…
The interesting question now is the role of the Nats.
And if the greens get up anywhere, which looks like a possibility.
Aren’t you all being a little premature in awarding this to the Libs?
The ABC site would seem to suggest Labor is still more likely to win a majority, or am I reading this all wrong?
Nick @ 172
Doesn’t matter.
If current primary votes hold, preferences will see the Greens win comfortably.
“Why is the ABC giving two LA seats to GRN?”
Who can know? But I ain’t complaining.
I’m betting on no LA seats, but I’m thinking Will Bowe’s 4 LC seats mightn’t be too far wrong.
Possum is right, there is no narrative. Each campaign was, astonishingly enough, to different groups of people, at different levels of government, in completely different communities.
I might as well predict a Green clean sweep in Blacktown Council on the basis of the Nightcliff result as try and draw parallels between the 3 on Super Saturday…
ain’t going to stop me from trying!
Goodnight all. I had fun.
Poor Antony. This is excruciating. Kerry is getting very pissed off!
Steve – for an election that is being held in WA one would not expect there to be much copy in those publications (SMH & DT) concerning the WA Election – it is evident that the vast resources of the internet are being under utilised.
McGinty looks like being this elections John Winston Howard. LOL
Who is this prat from Geraldton saying that his electorate didn’t repond to his pork vote-buyin?
Problems with the ABC computers?
Rohan @ 178
You’re right! Sorry.
Progressive has a point for the ALP are approx six seats ahead and only need another four or three if we take it that the Green will join them
Progressive @ 177
For many reasons, the ABC computer is unreliable. Go off the WAEC site.
On Sky just now Helen Coonan sez it’s too close to call.
How accurate are the ABC results?
19% Labor swing in Scarborough?
Progressive – the ABC site is getting data from the WA electoral commission far slower than the party hacks are getting the data, far far slower – so poor ol’ Antony (and the ABC) is behind the 8 ball when it comes to giving up to date electoral counts
Carles is nice enough but a bit of a fruitloop. Came to prominence on a single issue of industrial contamination on a large redev site in South Freo, which turned out to be a furfy. They cleaned up the site and none of the dire consequences Carles campaigned about happened.
Even though the Greens preferenced the ALP i have no idea if Carles would support an ALP or Liberal minority Govt??
Would likely be a one termer unless she can build good profile and actually do something real with her seat.
Still, its a black day when the ALP loses Freo. Still, look at the results from the Fed election and this just confirms that in general, W.A is stacked with eedjits!!
LOL, now we are in Berthold Brecht territory – abolish the people!
On Green prefs, at the Fed election in WA, Greens prefs were 75-25 for Labor, slightly below the national 80-20.
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-13745-WA.htm
Only trouble with that, ESJ, is McGinty isn’t a sitting PM.
Mexican @ 186
But if the Green gets up, ALP’s total will go down one, for no net change to Green+ALP bloc.
So Antony Green is getting peed off?
Wow!
Excellent result for the Greens in WA. The LNP arent getting as much of th asnti-ALP swing as theyd like.
Meanwhile, massive anti-LNP swings in the Federal seats. Demonstrates a huge loss of faith in the coalition under Nelson and yourself,?wouldnt you say?Julie?
Eddy at 192 – “abolish the people”… heh!
Smith saying Libs on 29 seats at the moment.
Fremantle Primary School polling place Greens 554 Labor 542
Boy the Greens are really cancer for the ALP. Cant be appeased and ready to dump on the ALP.
Once they get a taste of Fremantle they will be very hard to get out.
Morley a liberal gain?
Are D’Orazio’s preferences breaking for the libs then??
McGinty McSafe! – Oh boy
It seems Labor smarties shafting their own will cost Labor big time.
D’Orazio and Radisich in WA, Clare Martin in NT.
Who is this Bill Johnston guy?
Fremantle was a counting error. ALP home.
Shit.
For a longtime I have mocked the Greens for rating their chances! therefore out of fairness tonight I congratulate them and the irony that they will win on the back of Liberal preferences! hopefully they will start to be more balanced!
ESJ (164)
So you’re suggesting that by 2011 the Brumby government in Victoria and the Bligh government in Queensland will be gone (along with Tassie and NSW) and by 2012 the Rudd government will be gone (which means losing the next election).
You can get VERY big odds from me on that if you are prepared to put your money where your mouth is. Bet any amount you like. it will be the easiest money I ever made.
ESJ – in the meantime independents some of whom are really fruity whiteant the LNP at both state and federal level.
Wonderful result shaping up for Labor. They’ve earned this one through good, solid government, against the odds.
What!! gee what is wrong with the ABC for heavens sake all you are doing is reporting how people voted!
Yes Darn I think Rudd will be gone by Dec 2012 – he will win next year and then lose in 2012. The others yes you are correct they will all lose.
Greens are not a cancer, and particularly in freo they have real grassroots support. Them winning Freo (if they do) is a combnation of a strong protest vote by normaly ALP voters who thought / exected their vote would filter to ALP, AND, a big swing in primary vote to the Libs. Thats the only way the Greens were going to win Freo and i think its likely they will only hold it 1 term.
Also, before the somewhat blue blood members of this forum get too carried away, whats going to be the Nats position if they hold BOP in the house??
Sadly, as a lefty, I have to concede my sadness at an election most likely lost. But watching the tv broadcast and seeing the Lib reps being interviewed – they’ve most likely won after 8 years in the wilderness, and they’re already getting stuck into each other! Sue Walker has already suggested that Barnett’s win won’t be popular with everyone in the party, and the Nahan clown is already sticking the boot into the guy who is most likely to be the Treasurer. And this, election night!
They might (are likely to win), but I think it could be bloody.
In other news, the Kangaroos had a thumping win tonight!
Is it possible that KOB will be the first individual in history to combust on live national TV ??? I never seen that colour red before …
imacca its over their burning the confidential papers and packing up the diamonds. Pull out before the Liberals arrive.
This is the Labor party’s Stalingrad (and Labor is wearing the shiny Wehrmacht uniforms) there are only losses from here on in at the State level.
Serious, MGintys won??
And a very poor crowd even with all the giveaways. I wonder what that says about a second Sydney franchise?
Edward St John, it’s a sign of desperation to extrapolate such broad predictions from one state election. Howard had no states under Liberal rule for quite a while, and it didn’t hurt him any. And by the way, it ain’t over until Antony absolutely says it is.
Not the Wencke line again!!! Besides i hear no lage bossomed ladies singing as yet.
Commiserations to Labor supporters. An interesting few years ahead and definitely interesting to see what happens with ‘the blame game’.
It seems like Labor federally will have to intervene in its WA Branch.
imacca @ 217
Comfortably.
Very sad!
Yes I can hear ESJ singing down the road…
Die Straße frei den braunen Batallionen.
Die Straße frei dem Sturmabteilungsmann!
Es schaun aufs Hakenkreuz voll Hoffnung schon Millionen.
Der Tag für Freiheit und für Brot bricht an!
ALP state govts should be tumbling like 9 pins post-Howard. Thats the way it works,?especially given the longevity of most.
The fact that the ALP is even in with a chance is a savage indictment of how rubbish the state and fed LNP oppositions are.
An what a raw spanking the publics of Mayo and Lyne dealt them today! Bahah! Nelson and Bishop are lucky theyll have WA to talk about.
I guess the Liberals should be sending a big thank you card to this Bill Johnston dude!
Can any Sandgropers tell me what’s the rough proportion of McMansions in Wanaroo?
(211)
ESJ. That is an extraordinary claim. If you prove to be right you will be hailed as a modern day prophet without peer. But I must admit I regard the chances of that happening as slightly less likely than the end of the world predictions of the Jehovah’s Witnesses.
He’s not extrapolating! If he can think of something then it’s true!
Its funny Darn,
I find many Labor staffers because they hang out with other Labor staffers all day and night, are amazed that people can actually on occassion decide to vote against the ALP.
Also – there’s a recession coming and it aint gonna be pretty! In WA they are in the middle of a boom – elsewhere it aint so great, people take it out on sitting governments.
presuming the two Independants lean towards the Liberal Party the numbers look sort off like
ALP 26
Non-ALP 27
Way too close to call
Fremantle — Greens might win after all. Look at booths: East Fremantle PS booth I assume the Green primaries are being recounted, and once added, will jolt us over Libs again.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/polling_place_results.php
Huzzah!
It’s amazing Labor’s in with a shot, given WA didn’t want a change in Federal government anyway!
Surely this election won’t be called tonight? Half a dozen seats likely to be still up for grabs at the end of the night – and that’s before the arm-twisting starts with Nats and Independents.
Still, it’s good to see the odious Carpenter get his nose bloodied.
YUp, the hardest thing was always going to be sustaining the long lived Labor Govts in the states once the little nasty one with eyebrows got his just deserts.
It is hard when the expectation is that we normally have Federal and State Govts of different orientations.
Will be interesting to see if this goes to the heads of the Libs and they start tearing each other apart. they are not exactly the most stable and friendly lot are they.
No they didn’t….the swannies flogged ‘em.
WA was poor for the ALP in fed election so this is no surprise. I would argue that this result would not convert to a fed election nationwide. The polls just don’t support it.
sondeo, that was sarcasm, if you missed it. it was my way of saying “what game are you watching?”
According to the numbers these are the undecided
20:52 52.5 Albany * LIB 2.3 50.2 2.5% to ALP ALP AHEAD
20:46 68.8 Alfred Cove OTH 4.0 50.6 3.4% to LIB IND AHEAD
20:26 65.0 Forrestfield ALP 4.5 50.0 4.5% to LIB LIB AHEAD
19:22 14.3 Nedlands * OTH 10.1 53.1 13.2% from LIB IND AHEAD
20:40 73.9 Riverton ALP 2.1 50.2 1.9% to LIB ALP AHEAD
Counting error in Freo corrected: Greens will likely win seat.
Looks like ALP is only getting 65% of Greens preferences in Joondalup, if that holds in Wanneroo, ALP will lose the set by a couple of percent, and along with it government.
The result has enormous Federal significance.
The State Governments should have aggressively moved to hand over powers to Rudd on November 25. Instead the logs just carried on with same old same old. The ALP has blown a once in 30 year opportunity to move real change.
The other logs will pull their heads in and hope to ride out the storm – and then in the end the chickens (or more importantly the buck) will rest with Heavy Kevvie.
sondeo,
Agree, it’s of no discernible relevance Federally.
“Sydney booked a semi-final date with the Western Bulldogs and brought an end to North Melbourne’s season with a hard-fought 17.8 (110) to 11.9 (75) win at the Olympic stadium on Saturday night.”
Typical Edward St John, going off on another of his ridiculous tangents!
Credit to Barnett is also due, he’s an obviously decent bloke and people responded to that.
Go Swans!
Sucked in James Brayshaw!
ESJ,
Granted it may have some relevance in terms of the chance to effect a change in the structure of Federal-State relations.
Can’t see that it indicates anything much about KR’s popularity, or prospects at the next election, though.
“elsewhere it aint so great”? – that doesnt describe Qld. With the Pineapple Party as the chaser, Qld is pretty safe.
Over the next few weeks the LNP in Qld is doing a solid round of polling – if the polling is leaked comprehensively then then the LNP would be in with a chance.
It wont be leaked.
Danial……@237 : Sorry, we tend to be a bit slow where I am from. We even had a lib member once.
ESJ – what about Mal’s “New Federalism”? Or is he just an OT prophet who can be ignored?
Alan Carpenter is also a decent bloke! Assuming Labor has lost, it’s a shame he has to carry the can for something that should be blamed on others!
Dyno,
KR promised to end the blamegame with the States. He should be judged on that promise.
The Liberals’ dominance will be matched only by the huge crowds drawn by the Kangaroos in the next few years.
Bloody Sydney!! hopefully they get smashed next week!
What about aspirational nationalism?
Don’t worry about tonights crowd. Sydney people won’t go to games in torrential weather conditions.
Last nights important NRL game between Roosters and Dragons had about 5 thousand LOL.
Great win by Swans. St.Kilda to record a shock win over Geelong. On one side of the draw you will have:- Hawthorn / Geelong / Collingwood. And on the other: St.Kilda / Bulldogs / Swans.
It looks like a dream run to the Grand Final for the Swans.
Let’s not start talking about promises made by PMs that should be kept, we’ll be here all night….
In NSW our outgoing Treasurer confirmed we are well down the Victoria circa 1992 road. That is going to suck down a lot of things with it.
QLD would have to be the most conservative state (with WA close second), the ALP in QLD has blamed all of the sort of games as the ALP in WA.
Still interesting that the Libs will be forced to team with the Nats. Should make for some fun times in the west.
I am very surprised by this result considering the strenght of the WA economy! this does not go well for a few other Governments! anyway all politics is local therefore this has no real national implications.
Even if Labor wins the election Carpenter is gone, never should have called an early election, really stupid
(230) ESJ
Not sure if you are implying I am a Labor staffer. If so I can assure you I am not.
You are undeniably correct in your assertion that electorates punish sitting governments during recessions, but there is an enormous amount of fat in the margins of some of the governments you are so confidently predicting will be gone.
Centre – you’re as optimistic as ESJ. Almost…
“I am very surprised by this result considering the strenght of the WA economy!”
Lot of people said that bout the Federal election…
This shows what happens when an incumbent govt calls an early election. Fixed election dates are the way to go, look at SA
Forgive my ignorance, but if GRN are above 55% 2CP in Freo, does that mean it’s now officially “safe Green”?
If you have any doubt that the State ALP’s are on the way out just look at the cyclical nature of the last change of government at State level across the country.
Prediction: Rudd is going to start campaigning against the State ALP governments and start lobbing a few shots at the State ALP governments for failing to deliver – particularly the NSW ALP. He will have to do it to survive.
WTF!? If Barnett got the vote Howard got in W.A. last year he wouldn’t need the Nationals to form government.
Re: bogus federal significance of WA election.
The Mayo by-election has far greater significance. What a poke in the nose to all those pundits who gloated that the last by-election heralded the certain demise of the Rudd Government.
From abc.net:
Briggs claims Mayo by-election victory
Posted 1 hour 6 minutes ago
Map: Adelaide 5000
The Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs has claimed victory in the Federal by-election for the Adelaide Hills-based seat of Mayo, despite a large drop in his party’s primary vote.
With nearly 70 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Briggs leads the Greens Lynton Vonow 52 to 48 per cent on a two-candidate preferred basis.
Updated numbers have the Greens winning a seat and the Liberals now ahead over all if these new numbers are correct then the non-ALP parties look like forming the new Government but this is with only 55% counted.
Who are the Greens directing to in Alfred Cove?
jh, technically yes. Realistically, no.
jb 266 – ABC online gives Freo to GRN
Now I can watch in glee as Big Bad Bustling Barry O’Barrell does Nathen ‘Marajuuwanna’ Pees nice and slowly …
{Updated numbers have the Greens winning a seat and the Liberals now ahead over all if these}
That’s Fremantle, and it is a data entry mistake.
Kim Beazley on SKY now strongly of the opinion that it will be a hung parliament and strongly urging the ALP to seek a minority government with the support of the Nationals. Apparently the National leader has reasserted his decision NOT to go into coalition with the Libs.
Whoa…
Grylls reckons he will sell his seats for $700M to either party…
If McGinty goes down it is v.sweet.
Why?
It means in all of our capital cities, sitting members of the Labor Left are staring down the barrell of being replaced by the Greens. Albanese, Tanner, Plibersek, etc etc
Wow – just a few short weeks ago everyone was tipping this to be a massive ALP blow-out. The fact that somehow Barnett (and others) have turned it around so we are looking into the mouth of a change of government is amazing IMHO!
Now, what sort of deal will the Nats want for their support? How much $$$ will have to go to the bush?
Surely that’s a mistake. I can’t imagine 80% of Liberal voters are preferencing the Greens:
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/District_results.php
ShowsOn – hats off for turning up, many of your comrades have gone to ground tonight!
I’m aware that earlier Fremantle had a data error! the question is are the new numbers correct or still in error
ShowsOn @ 279 – why not? They do it in other seats where the Libs preference the Greens (i.e. Melbourne etc.)
I missed you so much!
Just looked at the Freo figures. Who is runningt the ABC computer and what are they smoking? I can’t see 95% LIB prefs going to GRN…
Now ABC gives North west to Liberal.
Grylls talk of Karlene Maywald is certainly a warning shot for the Libs… will the Libs give him what he wants to form government if that’s how the votes fall?
Shows on @ 274
NO – the counting error has been rectified. Greens will win the seat on current predictions.
Shows on @ 274
Liberals DID preference Greens ahead of Labor and the vast majority will go to Greens. Lib voters are historically ‘good at’ following HTV cards.
Example: Melbourne in federal election (now a Green/Lab marginal in similar circumstances) – a full 84% of Lib voters preferenced Greens ahead of Labor.
Beasley on ABC 720 saying WA is not a Labor State and they will be in office rarely. They can’t make 30 seats.
If ever there was a good election to lose, this was it. It will be lost by Labor by a few seats and the economic circumstances of WA could well deteriorate in the next year or so. Maybe a one term Conservative regime then
I take it Kwinina is now an Independant seat! Carol Adams is unlikey to support the Liberal Party
The Greens just need to get some credible candidates and drop the drugs are good stuff and they will clean up in the inner city.
Albert Ross @ 285
They don’t need 95% of prefs though.
More than enough Libs will have preferenced Greens ahead of Labor to see the Greens win. See above example of Melbourne 07.
That demonstrates how stupid they are; they support a party that opposes every aspect of their own ideology.
Bruce what’s his name on Sky also urging the ALP to seek a deal with the Nationals.
So maybe it’s not all over yet folks.
ESJ – we don’t actually say that. The News Ltd beat ups say that. There is a difference.
“Apparently the National leader has reasserted his decision NOT to go into coalition with the Libs.”
Bishop was just running the case that National voters would expect them to form a coalition government. Smith said earlier that someone should ring the Nats. haha
Can’t see it myself.
Well, if the Nats walk the walk like they talk the talk its a new scenario here in da west! Interesting that Bishop was on just a few minutes before trying to bully the Nats.
Look at that in the context of QLD where the Libs learned that they couldnt bully the Nats over the merger and Mal Brough took off i a huff.
Hope Grylls keeps his course. I suspect that the Libs have underestimated the resentment built up in Nationals ranks after years of subservience under the assumed coalition.
Further to Eddies last post! the Greens let themselves down with some silly narrow policies and need to boarden their policy approach! need to be less opposed to things and they will win seats not just from the ALP but a few inner city Liberal seats could be in danger as well.
Which ever way it goes a minority govt should be more open and accountable as has happened in the other states.
Expect the next minority govt to be in ACT in October, lib or lab.
So maybe a bidding war for the Nat seats. Deputy, Treasurer.
Too strange to be real.
It would make no sense politically for The Nationals to support a Labor Government at least at first hand. It would risk them losing a swag of seats at the next election.
This election result proves two things:
a) People do not like having the same party in state and federal
b) The Howard/Costello government was seriously on the nose at the last election.
The people at the last federal election preferred to dump The Rodent LOL and then Labor in the states than vice versa.
Showson
It’s called tactical voting and quite legitimate. In any event we are not diametrically opposed to the LIBs. There are some things we agree on – the sky being blue for instance.
If 2 Nats are elected with the BoP, can Alan Carpenter have two Ministers for Water (and the Swan River)?
ShowsOn, not really, there’s more to politics than ideology. Why do give your own rivial (for tories, that’s labor) a bloody nose in their home turf? I’d rather a Green than a Labor MP.
Four Ministers for Water?
Rohan at 288 wrote:
LOL, that’s pretty damn funny. Yet, sad when you consider it is these sort of voters who might have decided the verdict in WA tonight.
Yeah Showson, we Liberals are so stupid that ALL the upmarket districts vote Liberal. When Bellevue Hill and Point Piper (oz’s 2 top suburbs) vote more than 25% ALP, we’ll know that the Labor PArty has anyone in it with any intellect or intelligence. We run the country, in or out of Government, by the sheer fact that we are the people who actually move capital around. The ALP is just a minor hindrance. We let them govern sometimes, because they seem to think that politics are really importatnt. And even when they do get in, it is quite clear that they aren’t much good at anything but politicking, governing is beyond them.
Some Lib on Sky only claiming 8 seats.
So it looks like 4 independents and a Green so neither party can win outright tonight.
looks as clear as mud
looks like a short term parliament
Libs have gotta hand it to Sniffwell, if he was not so bloody awful, Barnett would not have had a chance to come back…
2 Nats go to Labor and 2 to the Libs – only fair.
How did sniffer go in his own seat?
I think it’s a fitting end to a hopelessly corrupted government that just couldn’t drag itself away from sucking at the teat of Brian Burke. Carpenter should take full blame for his cynical ploy of going early when the Libs changed leadership and for encouraging his slimy colleagues to cuddle up to the Godfather. Perhaps there is something to the “Wisdom of Crowds” thing after all.
I hope that Mike Rann, another populist shallow ex-journalist, is taking notice.
They have voted for instability and that is what they will get.
I predict that we could be looking at another state election within 12 months.
I cannot see either the Libs or Labor putting up with being held hostage by blackmailers or blackguards.
steve@317
At least until the next election…
Darn
If the National do a deal with the ALP they better get the sky for the rural area
because if they do not the National voter (many puts ALP last) will not be voting for the Nat next time, the Nat will be wiped out in the next election
And if the ALP give the sky to the Nat, they are gone in 4 years
OK, if you say so.
steve,
I’m with you, I don’t see how either party’s going to win tonight.
You’d have to think the Nats are more likely than not to go with the Libs, but they’ll sell themselves dear, that’s for sure.
Shows On
“That demonstrates how stupid they are; they support a party that opposes every aspect of their own ideology.”
did you intend to add “and santimoniously Greens Party claim they ar policy pure and major Partys ar not’
Fulvio, how smelly is Bill Johnston now?
I concede Labor has lost. What people have not been talking about tonight is the Upper House.
I prey the Greens continue to hold the Balance of Power.
Only then can someone stop the Liberal Party destroying WA with horrible policies again.
What’s that meant to mean Fulvio? As we have seen in recent years the blackguards and the slimebags are in the major parties.
ALP might give the Nats EVERYTHING they want to stay in Office! You never know…
Ron, I said earlier the Greens are Labor’s cancer, hugely significant if McGinty goes down, the cancer has started. Labor will need radical surgery or it will start spreading.
Are the Nats united? Thinking of the Pineapple people I wouldn’t take anything for granted.
Fremantle: I can’t believe it – only a few moments ago ABC was calling it Labor – now calling it Greens. Have they finally cracked into the lower house stakes in the aussie states? If they can knock off quite a high-profile government member – Vic 2010 could be interesting for Bronwyn Pike – as well as NSW 2011 with Balmain and Marrickville [now containing the Deputy Premier for NSW].
I doubt the Nationals would support Labor in government – unless Labor outbids the Liberals for giving the amount of royalties back to the nations – i mean rural areas.
nationals* no nations sorry
I know you are upset with me ESJ but can you commend on the whiteanting by independents of the LNP at both state and federal level,
4 Nats 4 ministers
The only pollies that could have done better than Carpenter would be Joe Tripodi and Reba Meagher …
Re Upper house, it is a Libs smashing, ahhaahhaaahaaa …
Darn @ 315: Very well
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/vass.htm
Can someone tell me who the independent in Kiwana is likely to support (assuming she gets elected)?
Grylls has a real chance here to re-mapp the Nats support.
If they bend over for the Libs, after being handed this position of relative importance they they are gone at the next election having built an expectation that they are striking out on their own to make a real difference.
If they act like a BOP party and maximise the benefit for their electorates then yes, they will lose some of their right leaning supporters, but they will gain a lot from the ALP and Greens, particulary dissaffected ALP voters.
Sorry Kwinana.
Labor. She ran for Labor pre-selection.
Greens behind Libs in Freo with 64.7% of the vote counted:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/frem.htm
glad to see Carol Adams get up in Kwinana
FFP seem to have done very poorly despite the populist appeals.
Carol Adams was Interviewed earlier and from what I learn she was a member of the ALP!
Scott, it could be a great time to have Barnett as Premier, it will be hard to see WA being the leading state after one term of this mishmash.
They are talking Labor only able to muster 27 seats max now so Barnett is going to be the one holding the poisoned chalice.
So second election in a row that the smart money hasn’t looked so smart.
Albert- perhaps we should wait for the upperhouse results first? They were never going to win a lower house seat [like they were never going to win Mayo]
ESJ
talking of cancers , ar you COMFORTABLY in agreement with th delusions of #309 , or is do you accept his type of votes with a sneer
So a government presiding over a booming economy is thrown out of office.
Astounding, but then again it happened to Howard last year, so there is a precedent!
I guess the moral of the story is: don’t call early elections, it has now backfired twice on state Labor.
With the chair sniffer sniffing around behind him.
Mexican @ 343 – yeah she is – but has been turned down for preselection several times – so decided to go it alone – could be a crucial vote in the lower house
The Nats will support a Lib government. Any other scenario is fanciful.
Ron 347 -
No, I think all politicians are bad, conservative and Labor.
Peter @ 340
Yes, but Richmond PS booth has a counting error of up to 1,000 primary votes in the Libs’ favour.
Expect the computer to predict a Green win again once the error is rectified.
Well, I don’t know about you lot, but I’ve won $40 tonight.
This is presuming the nats do as they’re told, of course.
Albert, if the Libs accept the Nats support, it will be at the expense of caving in to the Nats requirement that they give over a huge proportion of the States budget to pork barrel Nat electorates.
If Labor governs with the assistance of Bowler they will be in the pocket of Burke and co.
In theae circumstances I hope the Libs win.
BBG
Reba Meagher resigned tonight. She will be sadly missed by no-one in Health.
It’s been a great night in the three elections for non-major parties.
Good point PO – I had forgotten about that vote. GRN now look gone in Freo.
Thank christ we don’t go to the polls in N.S.W until 2011, otherwise I’d be stuck with Fatty O’Farrell as Premier.
Re my last comment:
For those following Fremantle, please note that I was referring to a NEW counting error.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/polling_place_results.php
ESJ
voters like #309 must embarass you , we hav them
OK Noam.
Progressive you will be begging for an election in NSW well before 2011 believe me.
Peter the Lawyer @ 309, I agree with Shows On @ 321.
4 seats for sale: http://www.nationalswa.com/pdf/080328Raw%20Dealoutlines3.pdf
Policy says 25% of royalties – Grylls said $700M on the telly tonight…
$175M a seat…
ABC TV: Bishop says there are Federal causes of the result and Smith is saying no over-riding Federal factor.
Smith, I think, is right.
This is NOT a good night for Federal conservatives.
ESJ: Barry O’Farrell won’t last until 2011, watch for Mike Baird to knife him in the back.
Craps is no Rann the Man, but would persuading independents and the greens and nationals into ministerial positions be enough? Then again, I don’t think he could manage that, let alone trust the nationals. But the Nationals don’t always have a cosy relationship with the Libs…. someone earlier said perhaps another election on the horizon… we shall see- if the dummy spitting nats don’t get that magical 25%.
Ah, beautiful Rohan, it sounds as if you’re more well-informed than our dear Antony Green this evening. How long before it’s you sitting next to Kerry?
Ron, ShowsOn,
I think there is a huge degree of dissociation between people and our politics. Labor suffers from it more because it has created its own professional political class.
Some form of PR would be the best thing for our politics.
Put this one down to the Polls being ahead of the bookmakers.The polls consistently showed the Labor marginal polling just was not good enough from day one.
Troy will be sniffing the … air with some excitement!
Ron goes without saying I dont agree with 309
Ian J @365: It’s hardly a bad night for the federal libs.
Like wars, history is written by the victors. Look for a redefinition of “smart money”.
jh @ 368
Too kind! And generous — in truth, I’ve never even set foot in WA!
Would Labor have had a better chance if the chair sniffer was the Liberal leader?
If 6% swing to the Liberals in WA is a bad night for the Fed Lib Carp would still be premier
Those 20k bets to win 5k is not very smart no matter the definition
(371)
Rx – it’s not the air that Troy enjoys sniffing
Great night – psephology was the winner!
Only if we move to a fully executive system; where the executive doesn’t have to be picked out of the legislature.
The Liberals have clapped out lawyers remember.
Steve Smith with poise
ESJ , reality is I’d think Liberals hav already won govt , they will form a minority Govt , with Nats etc supporting them despite th Nats ’spin’ and any other scenario is delusional Then polical crunch is occur in 12 to 18 months of a further electon
There is nothing Federally in this result , almost a vote on Carpenter & Burke is my take
But all those people with listened to William a few weeks ago saying that a bet on Libs at $4.20 would be very pleased with him now.
The Lib in Mayo is a perfect example of the problem too.
Those 20k bets to win 5k is not very smart no matter the definition
25% return (even over a year) is *good*, but I take your point.
ABC website
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/morl.htm
now putting ALP ahead in Morley after preference counting.
Ron,
I think you’re probably right – Nats would have trouble explaining to their base that they’d supported Labor.
They’ll need to get a good price, though.
Peter J Nichols says: “It’s hardly a bad night for the federal libs.”
Lost Lyne. 10% drop in vote In Mayo. A win in WA which was no relation to federal libs or issues. Is this the best it gets for the libs?
In reality its a shocking night for the federal LNP: Mayo down to the wire,?and Lyne gone. Gone! Rudds majority increased today.
In spinland, the WA almost-looks-like-weve-won result will give them something to crow about tomorrow,?yes. But really, they should have romped it.
377 dovif
Sorry to be pedantic, but it’s not a 6% swing to the Libs. At the moment it’s a 6% swing away from the ALP. How much of it comes back to them via the greens and independants remains to be seen.
The ABC has the ALP ahead but is still predicting a Liberal win in Morley.
Many apologies, re-post with tags:
25% return (even over a year) is *good*, but I take your point.
How absurd.
When the Dessicated Coconut was PM, every state election result was based on state issues, according to the Liberals. Now that Mr Rudd is Prime Minister, state election results are influenced by federal issues according, to the Fibs.
Who do they think they are fooling. The electorate or themselves?
All born with one too many silver spoons in their mouth at Point Piper and Bellevue Hill I say!
“But really, they should have romped it.”
Yeah, right. That’s why Carpenter, under no pressure whatsoever, decided to have the election now. Sure.
WHAT!?
The Nationals not automatically supporting the Liberals!?
Dealtime?? Will it/can it happen?
Grovel Julie, Grovel.
This is absurd. The abc site has just gone backwards in Fremantle. The vote count has gone down.
there are no federal implications.
Mayo is a poor result for the Liberals and Lyne is a shocking result for the Nationals considering the state of the state government and some issues surrounding the federal government!
Overall this is a poor night for the ALP, very poor for the Liberals and extremely poor for the Nationals.
the winners are Independants and the Greens
Somehow I think Dennis et al are going to think it’s been a good night for Federal LNP.
“Is this the first of many dominos to fall as the electorate expresses increasing disenchantment with Labors inability to tackle the issues that are important to them? The perception that Labor is out of touch blah blah…” You know the drill.
It seems bizarre how it has only just sunk in at the ABC what the Nationals said more than half an hour ago.
Centre,
Agree, the only Federal significance of this result is that it (possibly) mucks up Rudd’s plans to re-jig the way Federalism works. Another way of looking at that is it gives Rudd a tailor-made excuse when those plans don’t work out (as they were never going to, anyway).
I’d have thought Mayo (WorkChoices is still toxic) and Lyne (the Nats are dying unless they can carve out a new role) have more immediate electoral significance, Federally.
and Greens back ahead of Libs in Freo which could
mean a Green win
You’re right TPS @ 402…he sounded serious.
Peter Nicol @ 399
That’s because they’ve taken the Richmond PS result out altoghether: the WAEC is putting incorrect results on their site, so ABC has manually removed those from their feed. (This is not indicated on the Fremantle page though)
Their current prediction of a Green win is a correct one.
Julie Bishop shitting herself on TV when she heard the report of the Nationals saying that they were in play. After years of the Federal Liberals shafting their Nat colleagues at every turn, this might be called poetic justice.
The Libs win with a massive 26 seats. Rush out and order your penny dreadful uranium mining shares first thing Monday morning.
Spot on Dyno.
Rohan @ 406: Smitty said on the telly that McGinty was home. Based on tonights ridiculous counts and computer stuff ups, I would rather trust him.
People may see it has the tide turning against the ALP but a point I have made here many times before the State ALP governments have been extremely dominated due in part to Liberal voters protesting against the federal Liberal Government
MB @ 400,
It’s actually a mixed night for the Nats in my view.
Lyne was diabolical, but expected.
WA shows that the Nats may still have a role, but it will need to be one where they are much more independent of the Libs.
Dyno
#388
“Ron, I think you’re probably right – Nats would have trouble explaining to their base that they’d supported Labor. They’ll need to get a good price, though.”
On nites like this Dyno , many scenarios ar thrown , but politcal reality always wins out and Barnett is th Premier and there’s zero Federal implicationsd Yes th Nats price will be very very high as th Nats cleverly set bar so high in advance
Not a bad thing to lose one State , and by a small margin , not end of world & may be a further wake up call to NSW thhat there leadership change was corect but better future admin is needed
Grylls said quite clearly that Maywald’s presence in Rann’s cabinet was an inspiration and Bishop and O’Brien just ignored it.
But how can they do that in NSW where for years they have been the nodding dog in the rear window of the LIB Mercedes?
at state level it has been a good night for the Nationals but overall they lost a federal seat that would be considered heartland
Ron,
Yes this loss will provide Rudd with many opportunities.
Whilst I agree about it having no real Fed meaning, it will give the Libs an internal shot in the arm, and a better story to take to (current or potential) donors than they have had for the past 10 months.
I would think though that tonight has moved Nelson closer to the edge of the cliff.
The Nationals lost two seats to the Liberals too. They aren’t traveling all that well.
What AG gave us he hath now taken away.
Peter Nicol @ 410
ABC stuff-ups aside, I’m looking just at WAEC results.
Taking Richmond PS results out, due to the Lib count error, Greens would win.
Depending on Richmond PS results and dec votes, Greens could very possibly finish second after CDP and FFP dists.
In truth, it’s too close to say who will come second, but if dec votes aren’t too bad, Greens are in a very good position. If Greens DO come second, they’ll win the seat comfortably.
Anyone want to comment on my upper house assessment?
Left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
Mining and Pastoral. Unpredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
WA is still in play.
Carps looks shell-shocked…
TPS, that’s just hope not reality.
What happened in Albany, why is it the only seat that swung to the ALP?
Why would the ALP spend any resources on an Lib seat to begin with, there goal was to stay in Government
Yes Dyno , although oddly also strenghens Julie and her more consevative anti groupings given pro uranium etc policys will be seen as NOT electorally damaging
Peter the Lawyer: we all bow before your superior blue bloodedness. If you Libs like yourself are so busy running the country in your “upmarket districts” why bother gracing a little blog like this one with your pinstriped presence? Shouldn’t you be moving squillions in capital around? Just like those Republican geniuses on Wall St who gave us the subprime crisis. Or those clever wealthy Tories who invested in ABC learning and Centro?
Don’t you have something better to do, like buy a yatch or run down peasants in your Rolls-Royce or whatever it is rich obnoxious Liberals do?
The Libs can’t claim victory until the Nats agree to support them, which they clearly are not going to do yet. There are going to be some very nasty phone calls happening right about now.
steve #424 why? You had the leader of the Nationals say that the SA National MP who joined Rann’s cabinet is an inspiration and he will be calling her.
Carpenter has his humble face on, he is in negotiation mode.
TPS – sorry to break it to you (love your blog) but the Carpenter Govt is over. Labor to form strong opposition. Libs, Nats and conservative independents to wreck an economic powerhouse.
Coming from Qld I can smell a National Party scam (they are plentiful). The Nats will play up their potential to support a minority Labor Government only to get a “better” offer from the desperate Liberals.
Sandgropers – brace yourselves for chronic instability and a totally impotent minority government! What a rabble!
WOW Julie Bishop is obviously paranoid that Labor is going to sneak back in on some Nats votes, she has started campaigning all over again!
What is happening with the count in Nedlands? Still less than 20% reported whilst other electorates are 70% reported. Are they holding off reporting primary votes until 2 candidate preferences are recounted?
It’s anarchy I tells ya!
This is a silly question but under the old system would the result have been more clear cut and would have it saved the government!
Just had the good oil. The Nats will “demand” (yes demand) the premiership to lead the state with an ALP coaltion (dreaming). If not they will suppport the Libs. I doubt it will happen (100-1) but a ballsy move.
Did Carpenter aid his demise with the one vote one value
A lot of seats lost their sitting member, and might have switched the vote against the incumbrants
Labor would’ve been wiped out. The Liberals wouldn’t of needed the Nats.
In north west where does independant and Green pref go to
Sweetman Lib lead day Nat by 25.1-23.6
Well good riddance to Labor and Alan Corpse.
Lyne is not a good result for the Nationals. But everyone should take a cold shower and remember that Rob Oakeshott was originally elected as a National. It is only because of issues between him and the federal member (Mark Vaile) that he became an independent.
I think you will find that a good number of Nationals voted for Rob Oakeshott understanding that he is own of them.
really Steve A
sorry…bit rude.
i take that back…the beers are kicking in.
What are the odds that Oakshoot leads the Nat to next Fed election
he is better than the clowns in there at the moment
“Coming from Qld I can smell a National Party scam (they are plentiful). The Nats will play up their potential to support a minority Labor Government only to get a “better” offer from the desperate Liberals.”
In which case Labor should offer them as much as possible.
Yep, I’m with you Dovif.
If labor were truly on the nose shouldn’t the libs have got a majority in their own right.
“So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.”
Thats wide ranges, but as you said the figures aren’t the best.
Possibly the Nats are just playing around, but the fact that Gyll can associate himself with Maynard’s siding with Labor suggests they have some room to manoeuvre with their supporters.
Carpenter is going through the motions talking about minority govt. He’s done, it’s over.
Kennett tried to hang on too as did Goss they work it out days later when reality bites.
ShowsOn – I;m with you. Julie is starting to come across as shrill and a bit of a harpy.
Ok – you’ve said your bit about who the Nats should line up with, now give it a rest. You don’t need to push so hard.
As for Stephen Smith – I like that guy, he’s got a lot of class.
Rod!! I hope you are new to Australian politics for most elections are close and the ALP look like they have been defeated
The Commonwealth Coalition would blow a gasket if the WA Nats backed Labor. It’s not going to happen.
Shiver down some consevative spines.
Julie is always hard to listen to.
Chirs Curtis – Look at SA. Look at Qld. The Nats owe the Liberals nothing. I think losing the federal election has been a godsend for the Nationals
I can’t think of any recent examples but there have been occasions when the Nationasl have not gone with the Liberals.
443
dovif Says:
September 7th, 2008 at 12:21 am
“What are the odds that Oakshoot leads the Nat to next Fed election”
Not very good i’d say seeing the Nats ran negative campaign against him and he had ALP MPs handing out how to vote leaflets for him lol
South Australia…
MB – South Australia
I think the next few days will decide if Grylls will try and take the Nats in a direction that will actually gain them support in their own right, or another bend over coalition wih the libs and more of the same.
immacca, a chance of ministerial leather is all a Nat has ever needed to hug a Lib.
Comrades,
I know about SA, which has just one Nat MP, but I just can’t see the Nats in WA depriving the Coalition in Canberra of the propaganda victory they so desperately crave.
think upper house assessment may be 15 Libs 13 , Labor , 4 Nats , 4 Greens , assumed CDP won’t make it
Newspoll pretty accurate , understated Labor vote just under 1% but understated Liiberals by more about 1.5% , buts that it takes in electons
Julie thinks the Liberals should be allowed to form government in their own right – even without winning more seats than Labor.
There seems to be some here that are not aware the Nationals MP is in a LABOR cabinet in SA.
imacca, if by some transference from the reality of a parallel universe the Nats backed a Labor Government, I suspect it will be the Labor government that would be assuming the position.
Yes, Nick Lib 26 seats to Labor 28. Interesting times indeed.
Maywald is in the SA Labor cabinet even though Labor no longer need her to govern like they did in their first term.
Steve (467)
That 28 to Labor includes 2 Labor leaning independants doesn’t it?
If so that would in effect make it 26 all.
So – can someone tell me – what happens with all the bets people were putting on at $1.25 to $3 or so? Did one party have to govern in its own right to pay off? Is a coalition sufficient for a pay-out? I don’t bet but at the odds they were offering for the Libs I thought it was worth a flutter for someone…
Julie dear has only one ambition in life, her addiction. Like a crack addict she is desperate to have Workchoices back in one day. She is a female Minchin but with half the ability.
Hey TPS – sticking one hick in your cabinet responsible for river water is not much different to the other deadlock breaker of making them Speaker. Holding 3 or more together in a Labor coalition – impossible.
VPL the bookies pay on whichever party provides the Premier.
And even less desire to have children than Julia Gillard…oops, did I say that.
luckydave you’ve nailed it.
“Rod!! I hope you are new to Australian politics”
Yes we ar youngsters Rod
Nick you’re out of order, even in jest.
So assuming the crazy preposition in post 435 exists, and even more fanciful, Labor accepts… every better loses then?
I’m sorry…just one of those things your Bolt blog-type obnoxious commenters slagging off Julia rarely acknowledge…no offence intended to anyone but them.
luckydave, I think there might be a little bit of difference between being a speaker and being in cabinet. There is a lot of certainty here about how the Nationals will act but I didn’t hear it when I listened to Grylls.
477 It won’t happen.
Steve , ar your figures more up todate , ABC showing reverse at 67.1% counted
I know Shrike, that’s their MO. It’s a tired old script.
I doubt Federal Labor would let WA Labor accept that.
Instead of just asserting it Steve, is there any reason?
Nick, no offence taken,I share the frustration.
So I wonder how the Libs/Nats feel about the Greens achieving a larger swing towards than the Libs/Nats combined?
Why wouldn’t Federal Labor accept it? It breaks the assumption that NATS always vote with the Libs. And there is the Senate.
(just fine if they win of course)
Labor will give the Nats whatever they want for their support. Why would not not? What have you got to lose?
If the Nats get what they want why not support the ALP?
Luckydave maybe this is just playing around, but I think it unusual to see the Nats propose it openly, normally their supporters would not allow it.
Showson 484 federal Labor would have no trouble doing a deal with the Nats. Beazley was telling them to hurry up and do it tonight.
Scott @ 490
Because the voters will punish them next time around.
TPS I can just imagine the conservatives on this blog if the Nationals formed an alliance with Labor. All hell would break lose and they would work feverishly to tear the arrangement apart before it ever really began. It would hardly be a popular move with Labor supporters either. It just would not work and is not even worth considering. Better to take the loss on the chin and get on with rebuilding the electoral appeal of Labor I’d have thought.
Unstable government here we come.
Gary, we are heading for a Government run by a thousand rats.
ABC projected results just got interesting…not that I’m placing much faith in them atm.
TPS – What have they got to lose. This is just poker for the Nats. Senator Peter Walsh wrote about this extensively in his memoir “Confessions of a Failed Finance Minister”. The Nats constituents know that their leaders will lean to Labor, get a consession and then use this as political cover for the Liberals to give them even more. This is horse trading their supporters have no problem with what Grylls is saying becuase they are certain he’ll go with the Libs.
South Australia is a bizarre exception. And so is having a Nat in an ALP cabinet
Fulvo, I thought it would be run by the ever increasing price of uranium mining shares.
ABC computer now saying ALP ahead in Morley.
And their rat owners.
Has anyone got more up todate figures Forestville (count 71%) & Riverton (74.4% count) Labor leads 0.2% and 0.1% (like thats so close)
Also Antonys site keeps throwing up a differnt number of Doubtful seats on main menu compared to when you look at actuak seats that ar doubtful
First time for all things. Though I doubt it would happen. But will give journalists grist for their mills for the next couple of years and make Fed Liberals a bit queezy.
I’m aware of Karlene Maynard in SA I was thinking more in terms of states like NSW, Vic, WA and QLD which historically have a large number of Nationals in the parliament
Never underestimate the pull of power and influence. Grylls will go to the highest bidder.
But what happens at the next WA election if Labor supported Nat premier who is seen to be doing a good job? Won’t that just encourage a heap of Labor voters to vote for the Nat premier that Labor is supporting?
That would mean Labor would be competing against BOTH the Liberals and the Nats for the premiership at the next election, instead of just competing against a minority Liberal government.
The best Labor can offer the Nats is the deputy premiership, plus another cabinet position, and maybe without Carpenter as Premier.
Labor supporting a Nat Premiership would be lunacy, it will make it HARDER for Labor to win the next election.
ABC just got more interesting again…
For those who believe in cycles…
Qld 1998 – Peter Beattie slogged it out with Minority Govt to win handsomely in 01
Vic 1999 – Steve Bracks slogged it out with Minority Govt to win handsomely in 02
SA 2002 etc you get the point.
Are we back to the beginning of the cycle yet?
Or is ABC’s computer saying Labor 26 in doubt 3 + 2 labor independents still hope for wishful thinking for Carps?
SO WHO WON?!@?!?!
To all Liberal supporters on this blog:
Well done, on two counts.
1. If, as it appears, Barnett has won the Premier’s seat, well done to him. I will give him a chance to establish what kind of Premier he is, before making judgements.
2. You have succeeded in turning me even further off voting Liberal. During Honest John’s reign, I decided to never vote Liberal so long as a single LNP MHR who had served under Howard was still in Parliament. I changed my mind today; voted 1GRN, 2LIB in Hillarys, mostly because I rather like Johnton.
Thanks to your idiotic gloating etc. etc., this is highly unlikely to ever recur, at any level. I take poorly to such bad winners – the ‘feel’ of predatory pack-mentality is very strong, and it vexes me.
“Or is ABC’s computer saying Labor 26 in doubt 3 + 2 labor independents still hope for wishful thinking for Carps?”
NATS better get in quick then! :>
There are so many Labor supporters here who are obviously related to Dorian Grey!
Tell the Nats to go to buggery and watch the Libs implode within 12 months having to kowtow to the blood suckers.
Because all the Labor supporters out there were so delicate and sensitive towards their rivals when Howard was defeated.
Labor won the next election after the Borbidge fiasco whereas by supporting the Libs in Brisbane City Council for the first term it gave the Liberals a scapegoat for anything that went wrong and then Labor got flogged in the March elections this year.
Not a good idea to have the Nationals to take the credit for all the good and Labor to wear the blame for all the stuffups. Let the conservatives wear it on their own head. WA is the leading state at present economically, it won’t take long for the conservatives to turn that around.
Exactly Fulvio!
oh, except it will take the full 4 year term!
ABC:
Morley 73.9% count ,Forestville (count 71%) & Riverton (74.4% count) Labor leads 0.3% , 0.2% and 0.1%
Labor 26 , Libs 22 Natw 4 Indendents 3 (plus will win Alfred Cove)
Does any other site hav later info as this could be a late nite , not sure of odds of Labor winning ALL 3 of th above
Maybe they are not Labor, just non-Liberal.
Sure did, now the Libs have only won 10 seats, but lost 3; 2 to Labor leaning independents, and 1 to a Nat.
Of the 4 in doubt, Labor leads 3, and a non-pre selected Labor canddiate is leading 1.
I think there will be another W.A. election in 12 months.
Interesting times…
Postal votes?
I thought Lib supporters were ok tonight! Got a bit carried away with their portending Labor’s future…but not rude (cept one dick) and just enjoying the victory.
508 Mathew – as much as it gauls me to say this, I really wouldn’t be judging Liberal supporters by some of the, how do I put this nicely, idiots we get on here. There are reasonable Lib supporters frequenting this blog. Also, it has to be said, not all Labor supporters are pure either, although they are here.
Mathew Cole, as a Labor supporter I can’t see that any professed Liberal supporter on this blog has been offensive to any extent more than the euphoria of an unexpected win could be expected to elicit.
More fool you for voting Liberal!
Though maybe I’ve forgot some earlier stuff…ah well, couldn’t have been too full on.
Gary , when you said all Labor supporters here were pure , you obviously forgot me given th many warm complements I receive
Ron, you’re one of the purest.
Who would postal votes favour?
Don’t postal votes usually go with the swing?
So I guess we won’t find out for a few more days based on postals? ABC has upper house predicting Nat 4-Lib1-Apl1 – most likely agricultural on that one.
Bowe #512 and Gary Bruce #521,
Fair point. However, aren’t people like ESJ saying all the time how Liberal supporters are SO much better than ALP supporters?
FS#522,
Ordinarily, I wouldn’t (vote Liberal). However, I am fed up with Carps and his lot (more the lot that Carps himself). The fact of the matter is that I doubt Good News Geoff could have won this one. The ALP Gov’t here has been too complacent and indolent, aided and abetted by the Opposition that wasn’t.
Ron
I was just looking at those figures on the ABC site and I’m confused?
Going on them labor could get 29 seats and have a couple of independents likely to side with them?
Buggered if i know what to think!
This is absolutely insane.
If everything goes right for them from here on in, ALP might still be able to form government.
If the ALP hold onto their leads in Forrestfield, Riverton, Albany and Wanneroo, which are all likely apart from Wanneroo which is line ball (though a high prepoll vote might see an ALP win), they’ll end up with a majority.
Like I said, this night is bizarre.
sorry i meant Mining and Pastoral [ I love the simple names WA has for their upper house regions]
P_O #528,
That is so obviously a glitch, as it only appears under “North Metro”.
Given that the Nats only ran two candidates, them getting four seats is…unlikely.
Note of clarification: that above comment was based on current ABC predictions, which, presumably, have had some of the earlier bugs ironed out now that Antony’s off the air…?
Rohan, they seem to be creeping up slowly on the WAEC as well…don’t know if I’m just reading my wishful thinking in…is it possible?
I am really looking forward to the West’s publication of comments from Paul Murray and Robert Taylor – I think they will be extremely wise after the event!
So when will the punters be paid out? What about a possibility Carps holds on and then it switches to Barnett very early in the term? [Based on current seats and I'm thinking if carps lasts a sitting or two first - not being defeated on first sitting back.] Who would technically ‘win’ the election?
Perhaps Carps should have called the election earlier – especially if the upper house swings strongly against Labor. [With all those magical dates he could have called the election mentioned earlier on the Antony Green Blog for memory.]
Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-sus
One of the most extrodinary and unpredictable elections I have ever seen.
But a Liberal/National/Conservative independent coalition is still the most likely outcome….
I’ve been having the same thoughts as you… If the ALP gets three out of the outstanding four (Morley, Albany, Riverton, Forrestfield), they can form a minority government with Bowler and Adams, right? Am I reading this wrong?
Sounds about right Matt- very interesting indeed. And everyone was saying the US Presidential Election was going to be close – geee this is as close as it gets.
Morley is gone, I’m hearing…but the other three are chances.
Who the f*** knows what Bowler will do though…and would Carpenter accept his support anyway?
Ahhhh, we’re not going to have another election are!? And soon!?
My mother, normally a one eyed bigot (ok, like me) has always voted Liberal but this state election voted Labor by postal vote. Beware those postal votes!
Nick @ 535
Technically: possible, yes.
WAEC count is at 71.28% and ABC has pulled 67.7%, and I can only assume that the ABC predictions will become more and more accurate now that the on-air stressful part is over and the results keep coming in.
Upper house predications by ABC…
at current…
Liberal – 7
ALP – 5
Nationals – 4
Greens – 2
so left 7 v right 11
Even if Carps does scrape in – it’s possible the opposition will control the upper house. [Admit all this talk about the upper house is completely weighted towards conservative parties - will the upper house even get one vote one value? I say bring on PR.]
SLAUGHTERFEST! Absolute carnage across the board on a MASS LEVEL. Damn Woollard and Greens preferences. This is the worst scenario: an apparent National balance of power.
529 Mathew – I understand, boy do I understand, your annoyance when it comes to people like ESJ, having been on the receiving end of his childish antics, but they really are the exception to the rule. They’re a great bunch here.
Morely @ 73.9% counted ALP 50.6 Lib 49.4
why would it be gone for Labor?
Hello my friend Vera ,
agree , ABC figures I posted on #516 show all 3 with small labor leads , but in 20 minutes since no more figures
Perhaps William can say how th 4 Independents will lean (incl Alfred cove listed as doubtful but who should win
ABC has ALP ahead by 180 votes in Morley with 73.9% counted
Who controlled the Upper House before the election?