9.07am. There is now a notional count for Morley on the WAEC site (don’t ask me where it went last night), and it looks clear the Liberals have in fact won. So Labor needs to win Riverton, Forrestfield and Albany, and is not looking the goods in the former.
2.25am. Revised final call for the evening. The ABC gives the Liberals eight definite gains from Labor: Bunbury, Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Southern River and Swan Hills. However, I think Wanneroo can probably be added to the list. They also have their nose in front in Riverton and are very likely to pull further ahead in late counting, and a good chance of reining in Labor’s 166-vote lead in Morley and 242-vote lead in Forrestfield. However, Labor is 117 votes ahead in the notional Liberal seat of Albany, and the Liberals have lost Kalgoorlie to an independent likely to back Labor. If Labor can win three out of Riverton, Morley, Forrestfield and Albany, there might yet be a minority Labor government. However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting. Kwinana appears to have fallen to independent Carol Adams, so any Labor government would be hanging on for dear life with the support of two independents.
1.53am. Hmm – and we’ve also got North West as “Labor win” now. Would like a clearer idea of what’s happened here – possibly an unexpected Nationals preference flow. The WAEC site says 4729 to 3985, which is unequivocal. There might be life yet in this game.
1.16am. ABC computer has moved Wanneroo from Liberal “gain” to “ahead”. Labor in fact leads by six votes, but extrapolating the pattern of late voting from last time puts the Liberals 0.6 per cent ahead.
11.59pm. An intriguing development in Morley, which has gone from Liberal win to “ALP ahead” on the ABC computer, presumably involving official preference figures (the WAEC doesn’t have such a thing on its site as the original D’Orazio-versus-Labor count was junked). If Labor does win Morley, a majority for Labor plus Labor independents becomes mathematically possible again, requiring wins in Riverton (Labor trails by 32 votes), Forrestfield (leads by 242 votes) and Collie-Preston (leads by 416 votes). However, Labor tends not to do very well in late counting.
10.48pm. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.
10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.
10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.
10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.
10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.
10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.
10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.
10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.
10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.
9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?
9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.
9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.
9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.
9.17pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.
9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.
9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.
9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.
9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.
9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.
9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.
9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.
8.59pm. Regarding Fremantle: The gap between the Liberals and Greens is getting very wide though.
8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.
8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.
8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.
8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.
8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.
8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.
8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.
8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor. ABC has given Kwinana back to Labor, formerly given to independent Carol Adams.
8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.
8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.
8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.
8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.
8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.
8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.
8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Have added what I posted there below.
8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.
8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.
Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley
Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West, Wanneroo.
Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.
Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.
8.25pm. I’ve taken it over to Larvatus Prodeo.
8.13pm. Labor still ahead in Collie-Preston, just barely, with almost all booths counted.
8.10pm. ABC calling Joondalup for Labor, but I wouldn’t stake the bank on that yet.
8.08pm. Forrestfield “in trouble”, Steven Smith almost calling it.
8.06pm. Contest narrowing in Wanneroo …
8.06pm. But Matt Birney’s critique of The West up in lights.
8.05pm. Regarding the outages, I’ve just written to Larvatus Prodeo to see if I can do my live blog there, so keep an eye out there if I go down here for the long-term.
8.04pm. Matt Birney not sounding certain though.
8.01pm. Swing showing to Labor in Scarborough – probably an anomaly or an error.
8.00pm. Liberal also ahead in Forrestfield.
7.53pm. Labor out of the woods in Kimberley.
7.52pm. Now also chat of poor Greens preference flow, which if accurate means even bigger trouble.
7.48pm. Definite losses: Bunbury, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range. Big trouble: Wanneroo, Swan Hills, North West (though Swan Hills down from “LIB WIN” to “LIB AHEAD”). Possibly Labor gain in Albany, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nothing lately from Kalgoorlie.
7.46pm. So Mount Lawley gone. Smith seems to think Labor need to win all of Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup, Riverton, Collie-Preston, and at least one of those seems unlikely. Swan Hills, North West gone … you’d almost start thinking about calling it.
7.45pm. News flash – early double digit swing in Wanneroo, computer calls it for Liberal.
7.44pm. No, Labor now ahead in Collie-Preston. The moral of the story is that these early ABC calls are probably less reliable than normal due to the redistribution and perhaps the high non-major party vote.
7.42pm. ABC calls Ocean Reef and Collie-Preston for Liberal.
7.40pm. I’m back … Labor appear to be conceding Mount Lawley, but they’re holding on in Riverton and might even win Albany, although I wouldn’t be sure about the latter – this will be the rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths could still lose it for them.
7.35pm. Labor back ahead in Riverton.
7.32pm. Bad news continues to accumulate for Labor – Liberal now ahead in Riverton.
7.31pm. Liberal now ahead in Alfred Cove.
7.29pm. It’s calling Cannington for Liberal is well. Labor had better hope that there are a lot of anomalies coming through at the moment.
7.28pm. ABC calls Mount Lawley for Liberal with double digit swing.
7.27pm. ABC calls Pilbara for Liberal, which means it’s all over if so. I wouldn’t call that seat quite yet, but a number of bad results are accumulating for Labor.
7.25pm. Stephen Smith suggests trouble in North West as well. I believe what he just said about Riverton is out of date now, i.e. a new booth has been better for them.
7.24pm. One piece of good news for Labor: swing in Riverton a manageable 0.6 per cent with 8.9 per cent counted.
7.24pm. ABC computer has Liberals ahead in Kimberley with 7.9 per cent swing, 5.3 per cent counted.
7.18pm. Very ugly swing against Labor in Cannington also.
7.18pm. Third news flash: Also calls Southern River for Liberal. Huge trouble for Labor if this keeps up.
7.17pm. Another news flash: ABC calls Jandakot for Liberal, 10 per cent swing from 6.6 per cent. Big shock.
7.14pm. News flash: ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal. I wouldn’t quite call it yet: 6.6 per cent swing from 5.9 per cent counted not good for Labor though.
7.13pm. ABC calls Morley for Labor, but its judgements can be awry when independents are involved. John D’Orazio not looking in the hunt.
7.16pm. ABC calls Scarborough for Liberal, 3.9 per cent swing from 18.8 per cent counted.
7.13pm. I speak too soon – now “LIB AHEAD” by 0.4 per cent, 25.7 per cent counted.
7.12pm. Labor still highly competitive in Collie-Preston with 22.6 per cent counted.
7.10pm. ABC computer has “ALP AHEAD” in Albany, but only 5.2 counted.
7.09pm. First two Nedlands booths encouraging for Sue Walker.
7.09pm. First booth from Swan Hills, Gidgegannup Town Hall, gives Labor a dangerous 7.1 per cent Liberal swing.
7.08pm ABC computer calls Kalamunda for Liberals.
7.06pm. Labor might be a little troubled by 5.5 per cent swing from 5.5 per cent counted in Girrawheen, if it proves typical for the northern suburbs.
7.04pm. Labor doing a little better than I had expected in the first rural booths from Collie-Preston.
7.03pm. ABC computer calls Bunbury for Liberal – 9.5 per cent swing from 6.3 per cent counted.
6.58pm. Early Alfred Cove results show Janet Woollard might struggle to get ahead of Labor – down to Greens preferences. This from the Labor-voting end of the electorate though.
6.51pm. Two good early booths in for Labor from West Swan, maybe boding well for them in Swan Hills.
6.50pm. Julie Bishop reading too much into early Morley figures.
6.49pm. Very strong performance from Bowler also on early pre-poll votes.
6.47pm. Very encouraging first booth for John Bowler in Kalgoorlie – Kalgoorlie District Education Office, 434 votes.
6.42pm. Only 289 votes, but the Lower Kalgan Hall booth in Albany has swung heavily to Labor.
6.29pm. “Early Votes (In Person)” starting to appear – pre-polls, in other words.
6.28pm. Very first rural booths show encouraging signs for the Nationals.
6.00pm. Welcome everybody. Polling booths are now closed: very first results should be in from about 20 minutes. While away the time by viewing my election day snaps, and keep an eye on the tussle for Mayo in the thread below.
993 Comments
Buongiorno!
Any rash predictions?
From fellow commenters, I mean.
ABC Radio Streams begins
http://www.abc.net.au/perth/onair/720stream.asx
I’m holding out little hope for my ex-seat of Kingsley… fingers crossed for the rest of the state
ABC results pages up too.
Will Bowe, you were right. This IS going to be fun.
I’m holding out little hope for my ex-seat of Riverton too.
William – is the CDP seriously adopting a half-*rsed sign of the cross as their electoral symbol?
Neat way to offend both Heaven and Earth.
My impression in Kimberley is that there were a few baseball bats waiting for Carps today. Hope I am wrong but don’t think so.
Even the news is writing off Reece Whitby.
#7 Gra. Chris Dems
If people want to see what he means
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/09/06/state-election-live-and-worst-its-on
So who put their money where their mouth is?
I put $12 on the libs back when they were at $4.40. Couldn’t pass up those odds, they dropped down to $3.50 a week later (and pretty much stayed there).
The last of the big spenders.
Anyone got a link to the ABC TV Stream yet?
I love first results – Green and Labor tied, Liberals to win in a landslide.
Kinda hope that doesn’t happen.
Hang on, they’re test figures aren’t they.
Is that what we’re expecting?
that must have been a fun booth to be on
I want a TV stream. Bloody ABC. No link yet!
you have to wait until half past
ABC TV stream begins at 6:30. Brissy Rod beat me to it.
sorry Andos.
Ahh OK. I though they would start, since votes are coming in…Radio started at 6. Sorry for my impatience.
Can someone post the TV stream here once it’s up?
TV stream just came online.
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
Ouch. Well on those figures we’ll have an ALP-Nat grand coalition….ummmm
Stream is up, no election coverage yet.
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
It’s on now.
Coverage is up, here’s Kerry.
Got it
Just wanted to record the stream that’s all. Wish I could get it properly…Anyone taping it digitally?
What’s the WA elections site?
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au
ABC computer is giving 4 seats to Labor already, any idea which 4?
Steve Smith on the live stream seems to already be conceeding…
For God’s sake, please don’t leave completely off-topic comments on a live election thread.
antony latest seat gude
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/latest.htm
What, Kerry + Antony is what we live for. Hush, Bowe.
I was referring to something else, Oz.
?? I thought Steve Smith talking about the WA election was on topic… sorry.
so has Steve Smith conceded the election??
He was rather iffy about it all – sort of “if it’s close we’ll win”, but if it get’s away from the ALP early it’ll be a big win to the Libs. (very much like what the LIbs were saying last November…)
I was referring to something else, Grog.
Can someone tell an easterner just why it took so long for WA to discover one-vote-one value?
antony site showing 7 lab 2 lib 1 nat
Hey William, if you’ve got time to have a squiz, it would be interesting to know how many people are logged on to your site tonight. If you don’t mind telling.
Can someone please tell this easterner who is Steve Smith? (sorry for the ignorance).
The Foreign Minister.
Being an easterner is no excuse for your ignorance in this case
Steven Smith is the federal Member for Perth and our current Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Australian Foreign Minister
I assume it’s the federal Minister for Foreign Affairs…
Woollard looks gone on the early figures
Ask ur stupid questions tomorrow Grog.
Darn @ 43
Steve Smith is our Foreign Minister and is from Perth.
Found myself thinking the same question about Stephen Smith
quite funny really…he obviously needs a bit of international crisis to lift his profile
Who’s Carol Adams in Kwinana? 1 vote behind the ALP…?
I can see why the confusion…his name is not “Steven” but “Stephen”
Josh WK: Carol Adams is (not sure if current or past) mayor of Kwinana. Overlooked several times for ALP preselection, obviously cracked it with them and decided to go the independent route.
Adams has been angling for Labor preselection for a while now and threatening to run as an independent if she doesn’t get it. Kwinana mayor and Police Union lawyer.
Strong lead for ALP in Collie Preston. Is this the Collie booths?
Nationals are only on 6.42% of the vote… Greens in front on them on 9.08%…
Thanking you both.
Oh THAT Steve Smith. Yes I’m very familiar with the foreign minister. But with a name like Smith, there’s probably a few dozen of them scattered around.
49 peter geez, thanks.
Most the of the green preferences will go to labor which is why even with such a big swing they aren’t doing to badly.
would I be right in writing that if the ALP drop Kwinana then this could be an ugly night!
ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal – also Kalamunda and Bunbury. Might hold back on Swan Hills for a bit personally.
not looking good for Labor is it?
Sky has Libs on 6, Nats on 1 and ALP on 5 (seats won)
Where’s Gary Bruce to hype up the results for Labor? He is needed!
Green beating Lib on primary in Freo – it’s mostly because of Rottnest, but still.
Sick of these “cautiously” or “quietely optimistic” candidates.
could someone please explain the situation of Midland! is it only a two horse race!
Strange pattern in Moore. After 12.5% count, votes lost by ALP and Greens going to Nationals?!
Hope this keeps up.
It’ll be great to see Labor lose.
The OO looks very pleased with how things are going so far.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24302144-601,00.html
Are the ABC’s 2PP booth adjusted? They seem awfully out of whack with the primaries and the ABC’s own predictions.
Is anyone prepared to call the result yet?
The ABC result is confusing for it has the Liberals ahead in Kimblerly yet when I took a closer look the ALP were well ahead.
Anyone prepared call it for the libs?
Lookin’ like Carps is gone…
Tempted – but I’ll wait until 10% of the vote is in.
Far too early to call it, but carps is definately in trouble.
Based on the ABC numbers I cannot call it for the numbers are all over the shop! maybe I’m missing something! but there is a clear swing to the Liberals.
I nearly didn’t turn up for the vote – waited till 5.30 – was nearly prepared to cop the fine, on principle… a pox on both their houses…
Cannington looks like being the bolta result!
WTF? 26.2% swing in Cannington?!
Ok, I’m assuming this is a seat of two politically diverse halves and we’re getting all the liberal booths? Otherwise, what’s the explaination?
ESJ -this must be a first- I am tempted to agree with you.
32% Labor Primary – tells you everything. People have clearly rejected Labor corruption.
I think labor’s gone…
It’s gunna go to pref’s…
Can someone tell me – Is Giz (Greens leader) male or female???
It’s OK Ozy wants you start it becomes a slippery slope to the dark side.
According to Anthony Green’s outline all the areas in Cannington were ALP leaning!
Oh she’s hard – that Greens Leader
I would say Labor will lose this one.
Coalition must be getting happier- something to take the poor results in lyne and mayo off the front pages……
I just wish I’d grabbed more of that $3.50 action.
Labor are sunk. This is over for Carps.
What did the ALP do in Albany – send all voters a brown paper bag with unmarked $100 bills in it?
12% counted and libs have gained 7 or 8. Not good but little or nothing in the way of preference counts as yet. Close, but ALP havent lost it yet.
Hey Gary! Where are you? We miss you…
It appears that Kimblerly and Pilbera have turned on the ALP! while this is a state poll I’m wondering if there is a warning shot being fired at K.Rudd in regards to proposed Carbon Trading.
Yes A-C where is the voice of the ALP tonight? Come out Come out wherever you are!
Mexican @ 97: not in your wildest dreams.
Greenhouse and ETS a plain winner for Kruddy.
OK,
Now I hate to gloat, the theory of alternate Fed and State governments, Ie, Who ever has the Federal Government better run for the hills at the State areana.
Having said that I thought that the ALP would limp back in . If this is the end of ALP in WA, watch out for the rest of the States, Interesting to see that the Greens are doing so well, Its their best field, Swing against the ALP etc.
86 Steve Annabelle, Giz Watson, the Greens leader in Western Australia is female and I suggest that your comment could be( I hope not ) is homophobic?????
Carpenter is gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
I’m assuming he was going off her name.
I’m hoping he was.
He’d better have been.
Thanks Peter J Nickol! I would have imaged this area to be strong mining communities like the La Trobe valley in Victoria.
Interesting for when the Liberals managed to hold all state and federal governments it wasn’t long before they started losing elections.
Mex: Prolly off-topic for this thread tonight.
Brenton – Not at all. As a NSW resident I have never heard of her. But on my computer stream of the ABC I was looking at a person who I assumed was male with a voice that was female. And I might say that a name like Giz doesn’t give me any clue either.
In Albany I tend to think we’re seeing rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths might turn it around.
It’s awfully quiet tonight (relatively speaking) where are our Labor supporters tonight?
Sky just called it 9 ALP, 9 LIB 2 NAT (seats won).
ESJ: I’d say the Labor supporters are out at election parties after manning booths all day.
105
Peter J. Nicol Says:
September 6th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Mex: Prolly off-topic for this thread tonight.
Very true and the ALP can still hold them but its interesting that the ALP Government during a boom could be in danger! I see the ALP looking very good in Kalgoorlie.
(107)
Sorry to be obtuse William. Turn it around for whom?
ESJ at 108
I agree- like listening to an echo when you ask the question
“is anybody out there…”
‘…out there…..
“…there…”
….ere….
…echo….etc
Is there a problem with the ABC Computer – for example the summary page of seats is showing a swing to the Libs in the Kimberley, but when you read to individual seat page the swing is actually to Labor +6.8 to Carol Martin and the prediction of a Labor hold?
ESJ,
maybe these guys aren’t used to losing.
Yes no more bragging about Colin’s canal is there?
Yeah, the ABC results are jumping around a bit. Looks good for the Liberals but wouldn’t count it yet
No offence, but someone with the moniker ‘Steve Annabelle’ thinks ‘Giz’(elle) is a unisexual name?!
A-C yes when the chips are down the blowhards disappear.
Grace (115)
There ALWAYS seems to be something wrong with the ABC computer on these nights.
A change wont hurt WA.
Frank Calabrese is out drowning his sorrows.
Goorrrnnnn…
Yes Fulvio, Frank and of course Gary Bruce, the first whiff of grapeshot and you guys scatter! Its not over yet – they (Labor) may still win and you guys have turned rabbit! Shame
Can’t see why the excitement about Cannington.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Cannington/District_results.php
Someone please tell me that Mike Nahan, the Lib candidate in Riverton, is not the former IPA man!
Just watching and waiting ESJ… knowing how confident you and Glen were in the run up to the last Fed election I am not too distraught at the moment.
How many seats has the ABC declared won for each party?
Bishop noted that greens preferences aren’t flowing to the ALP as strong as in the past.
Watching this makes me realise Hendo from Darwin is a political genius!!!
What a spanking eh!
Jeez another Toytown election – I just had a look at the WAEC site. Seats with <25k voters. We have more than that in one ward in Blacktown and yet Bill refuses to have a thread for NSW LGA elections next week.
Excitement about Cannington due to ABC data entry error.
(127)
To be fair Albert, both Glen and ESJ predicted a win for Labor at the Federal election as I recall.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
Steve Annabelle, you know the answers to the questions you’re asking — don’t be deliberately inflammatory.
Giz Watson’s a brilliant leader of the party, who happens to be a lesbian.
Rohan, I am sorry if I offended you or anyone else. You are wrong, I had no idea. And while we are on the point, what does her sexuality have to do with it?
Fremantle still a small chance to cause a Green-win upset: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/frem.htm
probable minority govt
Strange old turn up across the board – Briggs holds on barely against the Greens in Mayo, Oakeshott rips the Nats a new one and the Carps gets the seven shades of shit beaten out if him in the West.
Bottle of of red for who ever figures out a cogent pattern amongst that lot!
It’s over…
Anyone still prepared to say Labor can get up?
The tide has definitely turned for Labor at the State and Territory level! We will see more retirements at State level from Labor govts and better recruitment for the Libs. Should mean better govt all round. Whether this is the beginning of the turn of the tide or a harbinger is a different question.
William, check your email re login details.
138 Steve Annabelle – to be on this site and following this thread and the election one would have thought that you would have familiarised yourself with the candidates if your interest in the election was genuine. Details of each candidate are well and truly documented on various web sites
Scarborough not looking overly good for Libs.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Scarborough/District_results.php
Smith just called it for libs…
10 seats…
Possum…
perhaps the theme is that politicians are elected to do a job for a set period of time..
going to the polls early or taking your marbles and going home gives voters the shits..
Arin’t Democracy grand!!
Labor is gone…
Is there something weird with the ABC site? For some reason, it’s showing me only 13% of the vote counted. I could have sworn we were at a higher % than that.
147 dartboard – yep, never go early.
Albany and Kalgoorlie are interesting for Libs.
If the Liberals had held Scarborough and Albany I would be agreeing with you Scott but I’m inclinde to think the ALP may just hang on, with that I need a strong coffee!
Terrible night for poor old Ant – electoral commission making him more or less redundant… Smith and Bishop are all over him…
I should have included Kalgoorlie in the previous post.
WA will be ruined!
Jim Kuchel – it may surprise you but the SMH and the Daily Tele don’t expend much print on the WA election and even less on the WA Greens.
Greens leading Libs by 200 votes in Freo, with 320 Fundie votes to distribute. If Lib preferences flow to the Greens in similar ratio to equivalent seats over east then Greens would win on these figures. However, plenty of booths still to come.
GOODBYE WALL TO WALL LABOR!!!
God, I am not looking forward to the Liberal gloating – see ABC telecast for Bishop’s ranting about Burke, despite his connections with Liberals…
I wouldnt write off Carps as yet even though its a caning for ALP. There is a lot of counting to be done yet, and on the ABC coverage they are relying on scrutineers rather than preference count for a lot of this.
Outcome here could be a minority Liberal Government if the Nats stick to their guns on being a cross-benches party.
Am having trouble believing that we are likely to end up with Chairman Sniff the bra snapper as treasurer??? What you thinking you lot!!!!
Am also wondering what Colin Barnetts longevity is going to be? The liberal party its self and particularly the Courts detest him. Of course, whio else have they got??
Anyhow, will be interesting to see if the libs can come up with any policies.
Why is the ABC giving two LA seats to GRN?
Its over – by April 2011 the senior Labor rep at State and Territory level will be Hendo from Darwin
By December 2012 the senior Labor rep anywhere will be the Mayor of Blacktown Council.
The tide has turned.
Should Carles win Fremantle, this will be the first time the Greens have ever won a single-member electorate at a state or federal general election in Australia.
Go you good thing!
ABC predicting Green win in Freo.
Doubt it!
(but wouldn’t it be grand!)
Two things to come out of tonight (assuming the Liberals win, which they almost certainly will).
1. The bookies are not always right.
2. Campbell Newman is no longer the highest ranking Liberal in country.
Mcginty McGone?
To the Greens of all people – boy, you Sandgropers know how to do an election.
If only you’d give Antony some data!
The ABC site has been giving wierd results all night.
Eddie I’m sure the Mayor of Dandenong would considering himself the more senior
has anynone got a reliable hgh level figure for green preferences
Until otherwise indicaated, I’m working with 4;1 ALP to LNP
Earlier comments suggest otherswise but I got nothing better than history to work with
Labor are well ahead of the Greens in Fremantle.
Yes MB given the population shifts out of NSW that may well be the case by then.
imacca,
Admittedly I am only looking at the ABC web site (which has seemed erratic tonight) But I have to agree with your first observation – Carpenter doesn’t look quite gone at this stage.
confused? I am.
Imacca@162: Mate, it’s over…
The interesting question now is the role of the Nats.
And if the greens get up anywhere, which looks like a possibility.
Aren’t you all being a little premature in awarding this to the Libs?
The ABC site would seem to suggest Labor is still more likely to win a majority, or am I reading this all wrong?
Nick @ 172
Doesn’t matter.
If current primary votes hold, preferences will see the Greens win comfortably.
“Why is the ABC giving two LA seats to GRN?”
Who can know? But I ain’t complaining.
I’m betting on no LA seats, but I’m thinking Will Bowe’s 4 LC seats mightn’t be too far wrong.
Possum is right, there is no narrative. Each campaign was, astonishingly enough, to different groups of people, at different levels of government, in completely different communities.
I might as well predict a Green clean sweep in Blacktown Council on the basis of the Nightcliff result as try and draw parallels between the 3 on Super Saturday…
ain’t going to stop me from trying!
Goodnight all. I had fun.
Poor Antony. This is excruciating. Kerry is getting very pissed off!
Steve – for an election that is being held in WA one would not expect there to be much copy in those publications (SMH & DT) concerning the WA Election – it is evident that the vast resources of the internet are being under utilised.
McGinty looks like being this elections John Winston Howard. LOL
Who is this prat from Geraldton saying that his electorate didn’t repond to his pork vote-buyin?
Problems with the ABC computers?
Rohan @ 178
You’re right! Sorry.
Progressive has a point for the ALP are approx six seats ahead and only need another four or three if we take it that the Green will join them
Progressive @ 177
For many reasons, the ABC computer is unreliable. Go off the WAEC site.
On Sky just now Helen Coonan sez it’s too close to call.
How accurate are the ABC results?
19% Labor swing in Scarborough?
Progressive – the ABC site is getting data from the WA electoral commission far slower than the party hacks are getting the data, far far slower – so poor ol’ Antony (and the ABC) is behind the 8 ball when it comes to giving up to date electoral counts
Carles is nice enough but a bit of a fruitloop. Came to prominence on a single issue of industrial contamination on a large redev site in South Freo, which turned out to be a furfy. They cleaned up the site and none of the dire consequences Carles campaigned about happened.
Even though the Greens preferenced the ALP i have no idea if Carles would support an ALP or Liberal minority Govt??
Would likely be a one termer unless she can build good profile and actually do something real with her seat.
Still, its a black day when the ALP loses Freo. Still, look at the results from the Fed election and this just confirms that in general, W.A is stacked with eedjits!!
LOL, now we are in Berthold Brecht territory – abolish the people!
On Green prefs, at the Fed election in WA, Greens prefs were 75-25 for Labor, slightly below the national 80-20.
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-13745-WA.htm
Only trouble with that, ESJ, is McGinty isn’t a sitting PM.
Mexican @ 186
But if the Green gets up, ALP’s total will go down one, for no net change to Green+ALP bloc.
So Antony Green is getting peed off?
Wow!
Excellent result for the Greens in WA. The LNP arent getting as much of th asnti-ALP swing as theyd like.
Meanwhile, massive anti-LNP swings in the Federal seats. Demonstrates a huge loss of faith in the coalition under Nelson and yourself,?wouldnt you say?Julie?
Eddy at 192 – “abolish the people”… heh!
Smith saying Libs on 29 seats at the moment.
Fremantle Primary School polling place Greens 554 Labor 542
Boy the Greens are really cancer for the ALP. Cant be appeased and ready to dump on the ALP.
Once they get a taste of Fremantle they will be very hard to get out.
Morley a liberal gain?
Are D’Orazio’s preferences breaking for the libs then??
McGinty McSafe! – Oh boy
It seems Labor smarties shafting their own will cost Labor big time.
D’Orazio and Radisich in WA, Clare Martin in NT.
Who is this Bill Johnston guy?
Fremantle was a counting error. ALP home.
Shit.
For a longtime I have mocked the Greens for rating their chances! therefore out of fairness tonight I congratulate them and the irony that they will win on the back of Liberal preferences! hopefully they will start to be more balanced!
ESJ (164)
So you’re suggesting that by 2011 the Brumby government in Victoria and the Bligh government in Queensland will be gone (along with Tassie and NSW) and by 2012 the Rudd government will be gone (which means losing the next election).
You can get VERY big odds from me on that if you are prepared to put your money where your mouth is. Bet any amount you like. it will be the easiest money I ever made.
ESJ – in the meantime independents some of whom are really fruity whiteant the LNP at both state and federal level.
Wonderful result shaping up for Labor. They’ve earned this one through good, solid government, against the odds.
What!! gee what is wrong with the ABC for heavens sake all you are doing is reporting how people voted!
Yes Darn I think Rudd will be gone by Dec 2012 – he will win next year and then lose in 2012. The others yes you are correct they will all lose.
Greens are not a cancer, and particularly in freo they have real grassroots support. Them winning Freo (if they do) is a combnation of a strong protest vote by normaly ALP voters who thought / exected their vote would filter to ALP, AND, a big swing in primary vote to the Libs. Thats the only way the Greens were going to win Freo and i think its likely they will only hold it 1 term.
Also, before the somewhat blue blood members of this forum get too carried away, whats going to be the Nats position if they hold BOP in the house??
Sadly, as a lefty, I have to concede my sadness at an election most likely lost. But watching the tv broadcast and seeing the Lib reps being interviewed – they’ve most likely won after 8 years in the wilderness, and they’re already getting stuck into each other! Sue Walker has already suggested that Barnett’s win won’t be popular with everyone in the party, and the Nahan clown is already sticking the boot into the guy who is most likely to be the Treasurer. And this, election night!
They might (are likely to win), but I think it could be bloody.
In other news, the Kangaroos had a thumping win tonight!
Is it possible that KOB will be the first individual in history to combust on live national TV ??? I never seen that colour red before …
imacca its over their burning the confidential papers and packing up the diamonds. Pull out before the Liberals arrive.
This is the Labor party’s Stalingrad (and Labor is wearing the shiny Wehrmacht uniforms) there are only losses from here on in at the State level.
Serious, MGintys won??
And a very poor crowd even with all the giveaways. I wonder what that says about a second Sydney franchise?
Edward St John, it’s a sign of desperation to extrapolate such broad predictions from one state election. Howard had no states under Liberal rule for quite a while, and it didn’t hurt him any. And by the way, it ain’t over until Antony absolutely says it is.
Not the Wencke line again!!! Besides i hear no lage bossomed ladies singing as yet.
Commiserations to Labor supporters. An interesting few years ahead and definitely interesting to see what happens with ‘the blame game’.
It seems like Labor federally will have to intervene in its WA Branch.
imacca @ 217
Comfortably.
Very sad!
Yes I can hear ESJ singing down the road…
Die Straße frei den braunen Batallionen.
Die Straße frei dem Sturmabteilungsmann!
Es schaun aufs Hakenkreuz voll Hoffnung schon Millionen.
Der Tag für Freiheit und für Brot bricht an!
ALP state govts should be tumbling like 9 pins post-Howard. Thats the way it works,?especially given the longevity of most.
The fact that the ALP is even in with a chance is a savage indictment of how rubbish the state and fed LNP oppositions are.
An what a raw spanking the publics of Mayo and Lyne dealt them today! Bahah! Nelson and Bishop are lucky theyll have WA to talk about.
I guess the Liberals should be sending a big thank you card to this Bill Johnston dude!
Can any Sandgropers tell me what’s the rough proportion of McMansions in Wanaroo?
(211)
ESJ. That is an extraordinary claim. If you prove to be right you will be hailed as a modern day prophet without peer. But I must admit I regard the chances of that happening as slightly less likely than the end of the world predictions of the Jehovah’s Witnesses.
He’s not extrapolating! If he can think of something then it’s true!
Its funny Darn,
I find many Labor staffers because they hang out with other Labor staffers all day and night, are amazed that people can actually on occassion decide to vote against the ALP.
Also – there’s a recession coming and it aint gonna be pretty! In WA they are in the middle of a boom – elsewhere it aint so great, people take it out on sitting governments.
presuming the two Independants lean towards the Liberal Party the numbers look sort off like
ALP 26
Non-ALP 27
Way too close to call
Fremantle — Greens might win after all. Look at booths: East Fremantle PS booth I assume the Green primaries are being recounted, and once added, will jolt us over Libs again.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/polling_place_results.php
Huzzah!
It’s amazing Labor’s in with a shot, given WA didn’t want a change in Federal government anyway!
Surely this election won’t be called tonight? Half a dozen seats likely to be still up for grabs at the end of the night – and that’s before the arm-twisting starts with Nats and Independents.
Still, it’s good to see the odious Carpenter get his nose bloodied.
YUp, the hardest thing was always going to be sustaining the long lived Labor Govts in the states once the little nasty one with eyebrows got his just deserts.
It is hard when the expectation is that we normally have Federal and State Govts of different orientations.
Will be interesting to see if this goes to the heads of the Libs and they start tearing each other apart. they are not exactly the most stable and friendly lot are they.
No they didn’t….the swannies flogged ‘em.
WA was poor for the ALP in fed election so this is no surprise. I would argue that this result would not convert to a fed election nationwide. The polls just don’t support it.
sondeo, that was sarcasm, if you missed it. it was my way of saying “what game are you watching?”
According to the numbers these are the undecided
20:52 52.5 Albany * LIB 2.3 50.2 2.5% to ALP ALP AHEAD
20:46 68.8 Alfred Cove OTH 4.0 50.6 3.4% to LIB IND AHEAD
20:26 65.0 Forrestfield ALP 4.5 50.0 4.5% to LIB LIB AHEAD
19:22 14.3 Nedlands * OTH 10.1 53.1 13.2% from LIB IND AHEAD
20:40 73.9 Riverton ALP 2.1 50.2 1.9% to LIB ALP AHEAD
Counting error in Freo corrected: Greens will likely win seat.
Looks like ALP is only getting 65% of Greens preferences in Joondalup, if that holds in Wanneroo, ALP will lose the set by a couple of percent, and along with it government.
The result has enormous Federal significance.
The State Governments should have aggressively moved to hand over powers to Rudd on November 25. Instead the logs just carried on with same old same old. The ALP has blown a once in 30 year opportunity to move real change.
The other logs will pull their heads in and hope to ride out the storm – and then in the end the chickens (or more importantly the buck) will rest with Heavy Kevvie.
sondeo,
Agree, it’s of no discernible relevance Federally.
“Sydney booked a semi-final date with the Western Bulldogs and brought an end to North Melbourne’s season with a hard-fought 17.8 (110) to 11.9 (75) win at the Olympic stadium on Saturday night.”
Typical Edward St John, going off on another of his ridiculous tangents!
Credit to Barnett is also due, he’s an obviously decent bloke and people responded to that.
Go Swans!
Sucked in James Brayshaw!
ESJ,
Granted it may have some relevance in terms of the chance to effect a change in the structure of Federal-State relations.
Can’t see that it indicates anything much about KR’s popularity, or prospects at the next election, though.
“elsewhere it aint so great”? – that doesnt describe Qld. With the Pineapple Party as the chaser, Qld is pretty safe.
Over the next few weeks the LNP in Qld is doing a solid round of polling – if the polling is leaked comprehensively then then the LNP would be in with a chance.
It wont be leaked.
Danial……@237 : Sorry, we tend to be a bit slow where I am from. We even had a lib member once.
ESJ – what about Mal’s “New Federalism”? Or is he just an OT prophet who can be ignored?
Alan Carpenter is also a decent bloke! Assuming Labor has lost, it’s a shame he has to carry the can for something that should be blamed on others!
Dyno,
KR promised to end the blamegame with the States. He should be judged on that promise.
The Liberals’ dominance will be matched only by the huge crowds drawn by the Kangaroos in the next few years.
Bloody Sydney!! hopefully they get smashed next week!
What about aspirational nationalism?
Don’t worry about tonights crowd. Sydney people won’t go to games in torrential weather conditions.
Last nights important NRL game between Roosters and Dragons had about 5 thousand LOL.
Great win by Swans. St.Kilda to record a shock win over Geelong. On one side of the draw you will have:- Hawthorn / Geelong / Collingwood. And on the other: St.Kilda / Bulldogs / Swans.
It looks like a dream run to the Grand Final for the Swans.
Let’s not start talking about promises made by PMs that should be kept, we’ll be here all night….
In NSW our outgoing Treasurer confirmed we are well down the Victoria circa 1992 road. That is going to suck down a lot of things with it.
QLD would have to be the most conservative state (with WA close second), the ALP in QLD has blamed all of the sort of games as the ALP in WA.
Still interesting that the Libs will be forced to team with the Nats. Should make for some fun times in the west.
I am very surprised by this result considering the strenght of the WA economy! this does not go well for a few other Governments! anyway all politics is local therefore this has no real national implications.
Even if Labor wins the election Carpenter is gone, never should have called an early election, really stupid
(230) ESJ
Not sure if you are implying I am a Labor staffer. If so I can assure you I am not.
You are undeniably correct in your assertion that electorates punish sitting governments during recessions, but there is an enormous amount of fat in the margins of some of the governments you are so confidently predicting will be gone.
Centre – you’re as optimistic as ESJ. Almost…
“I am very surprised by this result considering the strenght of the WA economy!”
Lot of people said that bout the Federal election…
This shows what happens when an incumbent govt calls an early election. Fixed election dates are the way to go, look at SA
Forgive my ignorance, but if GRN are above 55% 2CP in Freo, does that mean it’s now officially “safe Green”?
If you have any doubt that the State ALP’s are on the way out just look at the cyclical nature of the last change of government at State level across the country.
Prediction: Rudd is going to start campaigning against the State ALP governments and start lobbing a few shots at the State ALP governments for failing to deliver – particularly the NSW ALP. He will have to do it to survive.
WTF!? If Barnett got the vote Howard got in W.A. last year he wouldn’t need the Nationals to form government.
Re: bogus federal significance of WA election.
The Mayo by-election has far greater significance. What a poke in the nose to all those pundits who gloated that the last by-election heralded the certain demise of the Rudd Government.
From abc.net:
Briggs claims Mayo by-election victory
Posted 1 hour 6 minutes ago
Map: Adelaide 5000
The Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs has claimed victory in the Federal by-election for the Adelaide Hills-based seat of Mayo, despite a large drop in his party’s primary vote.
With nearly 70 per cent of the vote counted, Mr Briggs leads the Greens Lynton Vonow 52 to 48 per cent on a two-candidate preferred basis.
Updated numbers have the Greens winning a seat and the Liberals now ahead over all if these new numbers are correct then the non-ALP parties look like forming the new Government but this is with only 55% counted.
Who are the Greens directing to in Alfred Cove?
jh, technically yes. Realistically, no.
jb 266 – ABC online gives Freo to GRN
Now I can watch in glee as Big Bad Bustling Barry O’Barrell does Nathen ‘Marajuuwanna’ Pees nice and slowly …
{Updated numbers have the Greens winning a seat and the Liberals now ahead over all if these}
That’s Fremantle, and it is a data entry mistake.
Kim Beazley on SKY now strongly of the opinion that it will be a hung parliament and strongly urging the ALP to seek a minority government with the support of the Nationals. Apparently the National leader has reasserted his decision NOT to go into coalition with the Libs.
Whoa…
Grylls reckons he will sell his seats for $700M to either party…
If McGinty goes down it is v.sweet.
Why?
It means in all of our capital cities, sitting members of the Labor Left are staring down the barrell of being replaced by the Greens. Albanese, Tanner, Plibersek, etc etc
Wow – just a few short weeks ago everyone was tipping this to be a massive ALP blow-out. The fact that somehow Barnett (and others) have turned it around so we are looking into the mouth of a change of government is amazing IMHO!
Now, what sort of deal will the Nats want for their support? How much $$$ will have to go to the bush?
Surely that’s a mistake. I can’t imagine 80% of Liberal voters are preferencing the Greens:
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/District_results.php
ShowsOn – hats off for turning up, many of your comrades have gone to ground tonight!
I’m aware that earlier Fremantle had a data error! the question is are the new numbers correct or still in error
ShowsOn @ 279 – why not? They do it in other seats where the Libs preference the Greens (i.e. Melbourne etc.)
I missed you so much!
Just looked at the Freo figures. Who is runningt the ABC computer and what are they smoking? I can’t see 95% LIB prefs going to GRN…
Now ABC gives North west to Liberal.
Grylls talk of Karlene Maywald is certainly a warning shot for the Libs… will the Libs give him what he wants to form government if that’s how the votes fall?
Shows on @ 274
NO – the counting error has been rectified. Greens will win the seat on current predictions.
Shows on @ 274
Liberals DID preference Greens ahead of Labor and the vast majority will go to Greens. Lib voters are historically ‘good at’ following HTV cards.
Example: Melbourne in federal election (now a Green/Lab marginal in similar circumstances) – a full 84% of Lib voters preferenced Greens ahead of Labor.
Beasley on ABC 720 saying WA is not a Labor State and they will be in office rarely. They can’t make 30 seats.
If ever there was a good election to lose, this was it. It will be lost by Labor by a few seats and the economic circumstances of WA could well deteriorate in the next year or so. Maybe a one term Conservative regime then
I take it Kwinina is now an Independant seat! Carol Adams is unlikey to support the Liberal Party
The Greens just need to get some credible candidates and drop the drugs are good stuff and they will clean up in the inner city.
Albert Ross @ 285
They don’t need 95% of prefs though.
More than enough Libs will have preferenced Greens ahead of Labor to see the Greens win. See above example of Melbourne 07.
That demonstrates how stupid they are; they support a party that opposes every aspect of their own ideology.
Bruce what’s his name on Sky also urging the ALP to seek a deal with the Nationals.
So maybe it’s not all over yet folks.
ESJ – we don’t actually say that. The News Ltd beat ups say that. There is a difference.
“Apparently the National leader has reasserted his decision NOT to go into coalition with the Libs.”
Bishop was just running the case that National voters would expect them to form a coalition government. Smith said earlier that someone should ring the Nats. haha
Can’t see it myself.
Well, if the Nats walk the walk like they talk the talk its a new scenario here in da west! Interesting that Bishop was on just a few minutes before trying to bully the Nats.
Look at that in the context of QLD where the Libs learned that they couldnt bully the Nats over the merger and Mal Brough took off i a huff.
Hope Grylls keeps his course. I suspect that the Libs have underestimated the resentment built up in Nationals ranks after years of subservience under the assumed coalition.
Further to Eddies last post! the Greens let themselves down with some silly narrow policies and need to boarden their policy approach! need to be less opposed to things and they will win seats not just from the ALP but a few inner city Liberal seats could be in danger as well.
Which ever way it goes a minority govt should be more open and accountable as has happened in the other states.
Expect the next minority govt to be in ACT in October, lib or lab.
So maybe a bidding war for the Nat seats. Deputy, Treasurer.
Too strange to be real.
It would make no sense politically for The Nationals to support a Labor Government at least at first hand. It would risk them losing a swag of seats at the next election.
This election result proves two things:
a) People do not like having the same party in state and federal
b) The Howard/Costello government was seriously on the nose at the last election.
The people at the last federal election preferred to dump The Rodent LOL and then Labor in the states than vice versa.
Showson
It’s called tactical voting and quite legitimate. In any event we are not diametrically opposed to the LIBs. There are some things we agree on – the sky being blue for instance.
If 2 Nats are elected with the BoP, can Alan Carpenter have two Ministers for Water (and the Swan River)?
ShowsOn, not really, there’s more to politics than ideology. Why do give your own rivial (for tories, that’s labor) a bloody nose in their home turf? I’d rather a Green than a Labor MP.
Four Ministers for Water?
Rohan at 288 wrote:
LOL, that’s pretty damn funny. Yet, sad when you consider it is these sort of voters who might have decided the verdict in WA tonight.
Yeah Showson, we Liberals are so stupid that ALL the upmarket districts vote Liberal. When Bellevue Hill and Point Piper (oz’s 2 top suburbs) vote more than 25% ALP, we’ll know that the Labor PArty has anyone in it with any intellect or intelligence. We run the country, in or out of Government, by the sheer fact that we are the people who actually move capital around. The ALP is just a minor hindrance. We let them govern sometimes, because they seem to think that politics are really importatnt. And even when they do get in, it is quite clear that they aren’t much good at anything but politicking, governing is beyond them.
Some Lib on Sky only claiming 8 seats.
So it looks like 4 independents and a Green so neither party can win outright tonight.
looks as clear as mud
looks like a short term parliament
Libs have gotta hand it to Sniffwell, if he was not so bloody awful, Barnett would not have had a chance to come back…
2 Nats go to Labor and 2 to the Libs – only fair.
How did sniffer go in his own seat?
I think it’s a fitting end to a hopelessly corrupted government that just couldn’t drag itself away from sucking at the teat of Brian Burke. Carpenter should take full blame for his cynical ploy of going early when the Libs changed leadership and for encouraging his slimy colleagues to cuddle up to the Godfather. Perhaps there is something to the “Wisdom of Crowds” thing after all.
I hope that Mike Rann, another populist shallow ex-journalist, is taking notice.
They have voted for instability and that is what they will get.
I predict that we could be looking at another state election within 12 months.
I cannot see either the Libs or Labor putting up with being held hostage by blackmailers or blackguards.
steve@317
At least until the next election…
Darn
If the National do a deal with the ALP they better get the sky for the rural area
because if they do not the National voter (many puts ALP last) will not be voting for the Nat next time, the Nat will be wiped out in the next election
And if the ALP give the sky to the Nat, they are gone in 4 years
OK, if you say so.
steve,
I’m with you, I don’t see how either party’s going to win tonight.
You’d have to think the Nats are more likely than not to go with the Libs, but they’ll sell themselves dear, that’s for sure.
Shows On
“That demonstrates how stupid they are; they support a party that opposes every aspect of their own ideology.”
did you intend to add “and santimoniously Greens Party claim they ar policy pure and major Partys ar not’
Fulvio, how smelly is Bill Johnston now?
I concede Labor has lost. What people have not been talking about tonight is the Upper House.
I prey the Greens continue to hold the Balance of Power.
Only then can someone stop the Liberal Party destroying WA with horrible policies again.
What’s that meant to mean Fulvio? As we have seen in recent years the blackguards and the slimebags are in the major parties.
ALP might give the Nats EVERYTHING they want to stay in Office! You never know…
Ron, I said earlier the Greens are Labor’s cancer, hugely significant if McGinty goes down, the cancer has started. Labor will need radical surgery or it will start spreading.
Are the Nats united? Thinking of the Pineapple people I wouldn’t take anything for granted.
Fremantle: I can’t believe it – only a few moments ago ABC was calling it Labor – now calling it Greens. Have they finally cracked into the lower house stakes in the aussie states? If they can knock off quite a high-profile government member – Vic 2010 could be interesting for Bronwyn Pike – as well as NSW 2011 with Balmain and Marrickville [now containing the Deputy Premier for NSW].
I doubt the Nationals would support Labor in government – unless Labor outbids the Liberals for giving the amount of royalties back to the nations – i mean rural areas.
nationals* no nations sorry
I know you are upset with me ESJ but can you commend on the whiteanting by independents of the LNP at both state and federal level,
4 Nats 4 ministers
The only pollies that could have done better than Carpenter would be Joe Tripodi and Reba Meagher …
Re Upper house, it is a Libs smashing, ahhaahhaaahaaa …
Darn @ 315: Very well
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/vass.htm
Can someone tell me who the independent in Kiwana is likely to support (assuming she gets elected)?
Grylls has a real chance here to re-mapp the Nats support.
If they bend over for the Libs, after being handed this position of relative importance they they are gone at the next election having built an expectation that they are striking out on their own to make a real difference.
If they act like a BOP party and maximise the benefit for their electorates then yes, they will lose some of their right leaning supporters, but they will gain a lot from the ALP and Greens, particulary dissaffected ALP voters.
Sorry Kwinana.
Labor. She ran for Labor pre-selection.
Greens behind Libs in Freo with 64.7% of the vote counted:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/frem.htm
glad to see Carol Adams get up in Kwinana
FFP seem to have done very poorly despite the populist appeals.
Carol Adams was Interviewed earlier and from what I learn she was a member of the ALP!
Scott, it could be a great time to have Barnett as Premier, it will be hard to see WA being the leading state after one term of this mishmash.
They are talking Labor only able to muster 27 seats max now so Barnett is going to be the one holding the poisoned chalice.
So second election in a row that the smart money hasn’t looked so smart.
Albert- perhaps we should wait for the upperhouse results first? They were never going to win a lower house seat [like they were never going to win Mayo]
ESJ
talking of cancers , ar you COMFORTABLY in agreement with th delusions of #309 , or is do you accept his type of votes with a sneer
So a government presiding over a booming economy is thrown out of office.
Astounding, but then again it happened to Howard last year, so there is a precedent!
I guess the moral of the story is: don’t call early elections, it has now backfired twice on state Labor.
With the chair sniffer sniffing around behind him.
Mexican @ 343 – yeah she is – but has been turned down for preselection several times – so decided to go it alone – could be a crucial vote in the lower house
The Nats will support a Lib government. Any other scenario is fanciful.
Ron 347 -
No, I think all politicians are bad, conservative and Labor.
Peter @ 340
Yes, but Richmond PS booth has a counting error of up to 1,000 primary votes in the Libs’ favour.
Expect the computer to predict a Green win again once the error is rectified.
Well, I don’t know about you lot, but I’ve won $40 tonight.
This is presuming the nats do as they’re told, of course.
Albert, if the Libs accept the Nats support, it will be at the expense of caving in to the Nats requirement that they give over a huge proportion of the States budget to pork barrel Nat electorates.
If Labor governs with the assistance of Bowler they will be in the pocket of Burke and co.
In theae circumstances I hope the Libs win.
BBG
Reba Meagher resigned tonight. She will be sadly missed by no-one in Health.
It’s been a great night in the three elections for non-major parties.
Good point PO – I had forgotten about that vote. GRN now look gone in Freo.
Thank christ we don’t go to the polls in N.S.W until 2011, otherwise I’d be stuck with Fatty O’Farrell as Premier.
Re my last comment:
For those following Fremantle, please note that I was referring to a NEW counting error.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/polling_place_results.php
ESJ
voters like #309 must embarass you , we hav them
OK Noam.
Progressive you will be begging for an election in NSW well before 2011 believe me.
Peter the Lawyer @ 309, I agree with Shows On @ 321.
4 seats for sale: http://www.nationalswa.com/pdf/080328Raw%20Dealoutlines3.pdf
Policy says 25% of royalties – Grylls said $700M on the telly tonight…
$175M a seat…
ABC TV: Bishop says there are Federal causes of the result and Smith is saying no over-riding Federal factor.
Smith, I think, is right.
This is NOT a good night for Federal conservatives.
ESJ: Barry O’Farrell won’t last until 2011, watch for Mike Baird to knife him in the back.
Craps is no Rann the Man, but would persuading independents and the greens and nationals into ministerial positions be enough? Then again, I don’t think he could manage that, let alone trust the nationals. But the Nationals don’t always have a cosy relationship with the Libs…. someone earlier said perhaps another election on the horizon… we shall see- if the dummy spitting nats don’t get that magical 25%.
Ah, beautiful Rohan, it sounds as if you’re more well-informed than our dear Antony Green this evening. How long before it’s you sitting next to Kerry?
Ron, ShowsOn,
I think there is a huge degree of dissociation between people and our politics. Labor suffers from it more because it has created its own professional political class.
Some form of PR would be the best thing for our politics.
Put this one down to the Polls being ahead of the bookmakers.The polls consistently showed the Labor marginal polling just was not good enough from day one.
Troy will be sniffing the … air with some excitement!
Ron goes without saying I dont agree with 309
Ian J @365: It’s hardly a bad night for the federal libs.
Like wars, history is written by the victors. Look for a redefinition of “smart money”.
jh @ 368
Too kind! And generous — in truth, I’ve never even set foot in WA!
Would Labor have had a better chance if the chair sniffer was the Liberal leader?
If 6% swing to the Liberals in WA is a bad night for the Fed Lib Carp would still be premier
Those 20k bets to win 5k is not very smart no matter the definition
(371)
Rx – it’s not the air that Troy enjoys sniffing
Great night – psephology was the winner!
Only if we move to a fully executive system; where the executive doesn’t have to be picked out of the legislature.
The Liberals have clapped out lawyers remember.
Steve Smith with poise
ESJ , reality is I’d think Liberals hav already won govt , they will form a minority Govt , with Nats etc supporting them despite th Nats ’spin’ and any other scenario is delusional Then polical crunch is occur in 12 to 18 months of a further electon
There is nothing Federally in this result , almost a vote on Carpenter & Burke is my take
But all those people with listened to William a few weeks ago saying that a bet on Libs at $4.20 would be very pleased with him now.
The Lib in Mayo is a perfect example of the problem too.
Those 20k bets to win 5k is not very smart no matter the definition
25% return (even over a year) is *good*, but I take your point.
ABC website
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/morl.htm
now putting ALP ahead in Morley after preference counting.
Ron,
I think you’re probably right – Nats would have trouble explaining to their base that they’d supported Labor.
They’ll need to get a good price, though.
Peter J Nichols says: “It’s hardly a bad night for the federal libs.”
Lost Lyne. 10% drop in vote In Mayo. A win in WA which was no relation to federal libs or issues. Is this the best it gets for the libs?
In reality its a shocking night for the federal LNP: Mayo down to the wire,?and Lyne gone. Gone! Rudds majority increased today.
In spinland, the WA almost-looks-like-weve-won result will give them something to crow about tomorrow,?yes. But really, they should have romped it.
377 dovif
Sorry to be pedantic, but it’s not a 6% swing to the Libs. At the moment it’s a 6% swing away from the ALP. How much of it comes back to them via the greens and independants remains to be seen.
The ABC has the ALP ahead but is still predicting a Liberal win in Morley.
Many apologies, re-post with tags:
25% return (even over a year) is *good*, but I take your point.
How absurd.
When the Dessicated Coconut was PM, every state election result was based on state issues, according to the Liberals. Now that Mr Rudd is Prime Minister, state election results are influenced by federal issues according, to the Fibs.
Who do they think they are fooling. The electorate or themselves?
All born with one too many silver spoons in their mouth at Point Piper and Bellevue Hill I say!
“But really, they should have romped it.”
Yeah, right. That’s why Carpenter, under no pressure whatsoever, decided to have the election now. Sure.
WHAT!?
The Nationals not automatically supporting the Liberals!?
Dealtime?? Will it/can it happen?
Grovel Julie, Grovel.
This is absurd. The abc site has just gone backwards in Fremantle. The vote count has gone down.
there are no federal implications.
Mayo is a poor result for the Liberals and Lyne is a shocking result for the Nationals considering the state of the state government and some issues surrounding the federal government!
Overall this is a poor night for the ALP, very poor for the Liberals and extremely poor for the Nationals.
the winners are Independants and the Greens
Somehow I think Dennis et al are going to think it’s been a good night for Federal LNP.
“Is this the first of many dominos to fall as the electorate expresses increasing disenchantment with Labors inability to tackle the issues that are important to them? The perception that Labor is out of touch blah blah…” You know the drill.
It seems bizarre how it has only just sunk in at the ABC what the Nationals said more than half an hour ago.
Centre,
Agree, the only Federal significance of this result is that it (possibly) mucks up Rudd’s plans to re-jig the way Federalism works. Another way of looking at that is it gives Rudd a tailor-made excuse when those plans don’t work out (as they were never going to, anyway).
I’d have thought Mayo (WorkChoices is still toxic) and Lyne (the Nats are dying unless they can carve out a new role) have more immediate electoral significance, Federally.
and Greens back ahead of Libs in Freo which could
mean a Green win
You’re right TPS @ 402…he sounded serious.
Peter Nicol @ 399
That’s because they’ve taken the Richmond PS result out altoghether: the WAEC is putting incorrect results on their site, so ABC has manually removed those from their feed. (This is not indicated on the Fremantle page though)
Their current prediction of a Green win is a correct one.
Julie Bishop shitting herself on TV when she heard the report of the Nationals saying that they were in play. After years of the Federal Liberals shafting their Nat colleagues at every turn, this might be called poetic justice.
The Libs win with a massive 26 seats. Rush out and order your penny dreadful uranium mining shares first thing Monday morning.
Spot on Dyno.
Rohan @ 406: Smitty said on the telly that McGinty was home. Based on tonights ridiculous counts and computer stuff ups, I would rather trust him.
People may see it has the tide turning against the ALP but a point I have made here many times before the State ALP governments have been extremely dominated due in part to Liberal voters protesting against the federal Liberal Government
MB @ 400,
It’s actually a mixed night for the Nats in my view.
Lyne was diabolical, but expected.
WA shows that the Nats may still have a role, but it will need to be one where they are much more independent of the Libs.
Dyno
#388
“Ron, I think you’re probably right – Nats would have trouble explaining to their base that they’d supported Labor. They’ll need to get a good price, though.”
On nites like this Dyno , many scenarios ar thrown , but politcal reality always wins out and Barnett is th Premier and there’s zero Federal implicationsd Yes th Nats price will be very very high as th Nats cleverly set bar so high in advance
Not a bad thing to lose one State , and by a small margin , not end of world & may be a further wake up call to NSW thhat there leadership change was corect but better future admin is needed
Grylls said quite clearly that Maywald’s presence in Rann’s cabinet was an inspiration and Bishop and O’Brien just ignored it.
But how can they do that in NSW where for years they have been the nodding dog in the rear window of the LIB Mercedes?
at state level it has been a good night for the Nationals but overall they lost a federal seat that would be considered heartland
Ron,
Yes this loss will provide Rudd with many opportunities.
Whilst I agree about it having no real Fed meaning, it will give the Libs an internal shot in the arm, and a better story to take to (current or potential) donors than they have had for the past 10 months.
I would think though that tonight has moved Nelson closer to the edge of the cliff.
The Nationals lost two seats to the Liberals too. They aren’t traveling all that well.
What AG gave us he hath now taken away.
Peter Nicol @ 410
ABC stuff-ups aside, I’m looking just at WAEC results.
Taking Richmond PS results out, due to the Lib count error, Greens would win.
Depending on Richmond PS results and dec votes, Greens could very possibly finish second after CDP and FFP dists.
In truth, it’s too close to say who will come second, but if dec votes aren’t too bad, Greens are in a very good position. If Greens DO come second, they’ll win the seat comfortably.
Anyone want to comment on my upper house assessment?
Left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
Mining and Pastoral. Unpredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
WA is still in play.
Carps looks shell-shocked…
TPS, that’s just hope not reality.
What happened in Albany, why is it the only seat that swung to the ALP?
Why would the ALP spend any resources on an Lib seat to begin with, there goal was to stay in Government
Yes Dyno , although oddly also strenghens Julie and her more consevative anti groupings given pro uranium etc policys will be seen as NOT electorally damaging
Peter the Lawyer: we all bow before your superior blue bloodedness. If you Libs like yourself are so busy running the country in your “upmarket districts” why bother gracing a little blog like this one with your pinstriped presence? Shouldn’t you be moving squillions in capital around? Just like those Republican geniuses on Wall St who gave us the subprime crisis. Or those clever wealthy Tories who invested in ABC learning and Centro?
Don’t you have something better to do, like buy a yatch or run down peasants in your Rolls-Royce or whatever it is rich obnoxious Liberals do?
The Libs can’t claim victory until the Nats agree to support them, which they clearly are not going to do yet. There are going to be some very nasty phone calls happening right about now.
steve #424 why? You had the leader of the Nationals say that the SA National MP who joined Rann’s cabinet is an inspiration and he will be calling her.
Carpenter has his humble face on, he is in negotiation mode.
TPS – sorry to break it to you (love your blog) but the Carpenter Govt is over. Labor to form strong opposition. Libs, Nats and conservative independents to wreck an economic powerhouse.
Coming from Qld I can smell a National Party scam (they are plentiful). The Nats will play up their potential to support a minority Labor Government only to get a “better” offer from the desperate Liberals.
Sandgropers – brace yourselves for chronic instability and a totally impotent minority government! What a rabble!
WOW Julie Bishop is obviously paranoid that Labor is going to sneak back in on some Nats votes, she has started campaigning all over again!
What is happening with the count in Nedlands? Still less than 20% reported whilst other electorates are 70% reported. Are they holding off reporting primary votes until 2 candidate preferences are recounted?
It’s anarchy I tells ya!
This is a silly question but under the old system would the result have been more clear cut and would have it saved the government!
Just had the good oil. The Nats will “demand” (yes demand) the premiership to lead the state with an ALP coaltion (dreaming). If not they will suppport the Libs. I doubt it will happen (100-1) but a ballsy move.
Did Carpenter aid his demise with the one vote one value
A lot of seats lost their sitting member, and might have switched the vote against the incumbrants
Labor would’ve been wiped out. The Liberals wouldn’t of needed the Nats.
In north west where does independant and Green pref go to
Sweetman Lib lead day Nat by 25.1-23.6
Well good riddance to Labor and Alan Corpse.
Lyne is not a good result for the Nationals. But everyone should take a cold shower and remember that Rob Oakeshott was originally elected as a National. It is only because of issues between him and the federal member (Mark Vaile) that he became an independent.
I think you will find that a good number of Nationals voted for Rob Oakeshott understanding that he is own of them.
really Steve A
sorry…bit rude.
i take that back…the beers are kicking in.
What are the odds that Oakshoot leads the Nat to next Fed election
he is better than the clowns in there at the moment
“Coming from Qld I can smell a National Party scam (they are plentiful). The Nats will play up their potential to support a minority Labor Government only to get a “better” offer from the desperate Liberals.”
In which case Labor should offer them as much as possible.
Yep, I’m with you Dovif.
If labor were truly on the nose shouldn’t the libs have got a majority in their own right.
“So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.”
Thats wide ranges, but as you said the figures aren’t the best.
Possibly the Nats are just playing around, but the fact that Gyll can associate himself with Maynard’s siding with Labor suggests they have some room to manoeuvre with their supporters.
Carpenter is going through the motions talking about minority govt. He’s done, it’s over.
Kennett tried to hang on too as did Goss they work it out days later when reality bites.
ShowsOn – I;m with you. Julie is starting to come across as shrill and a bit of a harpy.
Ok – you’ve said your bit about who the Nats should line up with, now give it a rest. You don’t need to push so hard.
As for Stephen Smith – I like that guy, he’s got a lot of class.
Rod!! I hope you are new to Australian politics for most elections are close and the ALP look like they have been defeated
The Commonwealth Coalition would blow a gasket if the WA Nats backed Labor. It’s not going to happen.
Shiver down some consevative spines.
Julie is always hard to listen to.
Chirs Curtis – Look at SA. Look at Qld. The Nats owe the Liberals nothing. I think losing the federal election has been a godsend for the Nationals
I can’t think of any recent examples but there have been occasions when the Nationasl have not gone with the Liberals.
443
dovif Says:
September 7th, 2008 at 12:21 am
“What are the odds that Oakshoot leads the Nat to next Fed election”
Not very good i’d say seeing the Nats ran negative campaign against him and he had ALP MPs handing out how to vote leaflets for him lol
South Australia…
MB – South Australia
I think the next few days will decide if Grylls will try and take the Nats in a direction that will actually gain them support in their own right, or another bend over coalition wih the libs and more of the same.
immacca, a chance of ministerial leather is all a Nat has ever needed to hug a Lib.
Comrades,
I know about SA, which has just one Nat MP, but I just can’t see the Nats in WA depriving the Coalition in Canberra of the propaganda victory they so desperately crave.
think upper house assessment may be 15 Libs 13 , Labor , 4 Nats , 4 Greens , assumed CDP won’t make it
Newspoll pretty accurate , understated Labor vote just under 1% but understated Liiberals by more about 1.5% , buts that it takes in electons
Julie thinks the Liberals should be allowed to form government in their own right – even without winning more seats than Labor.
There seems to be some here that are not aware the Nationals MP is in a LABOR cabinet in SA.
imacca, if by some transference from the reality of a parallel universe the Nats backed a Labor Government, I suspect it will be the Labor government that would be assuming the position.
Yes, Nick Lib 26 seats to Labor 28. Interesting times indeed.
Maywald is in the SA Labor cabinet even though Labor no longer need her to govern like they did in their first term.
Steve (467)
That 28 to Labor includes 2 Labor leaning independants doesn’t it?
If so that would in effect make it 26 all.
So – can someone tell me – what happens with all the bets people were putting on at $1.25 to $3 or so? Did one party have to govern in its own right to pay off? Is a coalition sufficient for a pay-out? I don’t bet but at the odds they were offering for the Libs I thought it was worth a flutter for someone…
Julie dear has only one ambition in life, her addiction. Like a crack addict she is desperate to have Workchoices back in one day. She is a female Minchin but with half the ability.
Hey TPS – sticking one hick in your cabinet responsible for river water is not much different to the other deadlock breaker of making them Speaker. Holding 3 or more together in a Labor coalition – impossible.
VPL the bookies pay on whichever party provides the Premier.
And even less desire to have children than Julia Gillard…oops, did I say that.
luckydave you’ve nailed it.
“Rod!! I hope you are new to Australian politics”
Yes we ar youngsters Rod
Nick you’re out of order, even in jest.
So assuming the crazy preposition in post 435 exists, and even more fanciful, Labor accepts… every better loses then?
I’m sorry…just one of those things your Bolt blog-type obnoxious commenters slagging off Julia rarely acknowledge…no offence intended to anyone but them.
luckydave, I think there might be a little bit of difference between being a speaker and being in cabinet. There is a lot of certainty here about how the Nationals will act but I didn’t hear it when I listened to Grylls.
477 It won’t happen.
Steve , ar your figures more up todate , ABC showing reverse at 67.1% counted
I know Shrike, that’s their MO. It’s a tired old script.
I doubt Federal Labor would let WA Labor accept that.
Instead of just asserting it Steve, is there any reason?
Nick, no offence taken,I share the frustration.
So I wonder how the Libs/Nats feel about the Greens achieving a larger swing towards than the Libs/Nats combined?
Why wouldn’t Federal Labor accept it? It breaks the assumption that NATS always vote with the Libs. And there is the Senate.
(just fine if they win of course)
Labor will give the Nats whatever they want for their support. Why would not not? What have you got to lose?
If the Nats get what they want why not support the ALP?
Luckydave maybe this is just playing around, but I think it unusual to see the Nats propose it openly, normally their supporters would not allow it.
Showson 484 federal Labor would have no trouble doing a deal with the Nats. Beazley was telling them to hurry up and do it tonight.
Scott @ 490
Because the voters will punish them next time around.
TPS I can just imagine the conservatives on this blog if the Nationals formed an alliance with Labor. All hell would break lose and they would work feverishly to tear the arrangement apart before it ever really began. It would hardly be a popular move with Labor supporters either. It just would not work and is not even worth considering. Better to take the loss on the chin and get on with rebuilding the electoral appeal of Labor I’d have thought.
Unstable government here we come.
Gary, we are heading for a Government run by a thousand rats.
ABC projected results just got interesting…not that I’m placing much faith in them atm.
TPS – What have they got to lose. This is just poker for the Nats. Senator Peter Walsh wrote about this extensively in his memoir “Confessions of a Failed Finance Minister”. The Nats constituents know that their leaders will lean to Labor, get a consession and then use this as political cover for the Liberals to give them even more. This is horse trading their supporters have no problem with what Grylls is saying becuase they are certain he’ll go with the Libs.
South Australia is a bizarre exception. And so is having a Nat in an ALP cabinet
Fulvo, I thought it would be run by the ever increasing price of uranium mining shares.
ABC computer now saying ALP ahead in Morley.
And their rat owners.
Has anyone got more up todate figures Forestville (count 71%) & Riverton (74.4% count) Labor leads 0.2% and 0.1% (like thats so close)
Also Antonys site keeps throwing up a differnt number of Doubtful seats on main menu compared to when you look at actuak seats that ar doubtful
First time for all things. Though I doubt it would happen. But will give journalists grist for their mills for the next couple of years and make Fed Liberals a bit queezy.
I’m aware of Karlene Maynard in SA I was thinking more in terms of states like NSW, Vic, WA and QLD which historically have a large number of Nationals in the parliament
Never underestimate the pull of power and influence. Grylls will go to the highest bidder.
But what happens at the next WA election if Labor supported Nat premier who is seen to be doing a good job? Won’t that just encourage a heap of Labor voters to vote for the Nat premier that Labor is supporting?
That would mean Labor would be competing against BOTH the Liberals and the Nats for the premiership at the next election, instead of just competing against a minority Liberal government.
The best Labor can offer the Nats is the deputy premiership, plus another cabinet position, and maybe without Carpenter as Premier.
Labor supporting a Nat Premiership would be lunacy, it will make it HARDER for Labor to win the next election.
ABC just got more interesting again…
For those who believe in cycles…
Qld 1998 – Peter Beattie slogged it out with Minority Govt to win handsomely in 01
Vic 1999 – Steve Bracks slogged it out with Minority Govt to win handsomely in 02
SA 2002 etc you get the point.
Are we back to the beginning of the cycle yet?
Or is ABC’s computer saying Labor 26 in doubt 3 + 2 labor independents still hope for wishful thinking for Carps?
SO WHO WON?!@?!?!
To all Liberal supporters on this blog:
Well done, on two counts.
1. If, as it appears, Barnett has won the Premier’s seat, well done to him. I will give him a chance to establish what kind of Premier he is, before making judgements.
2. You have succeeded in turning me even further off voting Liberal. During Honest John’s reign, I decided to never vote Liberal so long as a single LNP MHR who had served under Howard was still in Parliament. I changed my mind today; voted 1GRN, 2LIB in Hillarys, mostly because I rather like Johnton.
Thanks to your idiotic gloating etc. etc., this is highly unlikely to ever recur, at any level. I take poorly to such bad winners – the ‘feel’ of predatory pack-mentality is very strong, and it vexes me.
“Or is ABC’s computer saying Labor 26 in doubt 3 + 2 labor independents still hope for wishful thinking for Carps?”
NATS better get in quick then! :>
There are so many Labor supporters here who are obviously related to Dorian Grey!
Tell the Nats to go to buggery and watch the Libs implode within 12 months having to kowtow to the blood suckers.
Because all the Labor supporters out there were so delicate and sensitive towards their rivals when Howard was defeated.
Labor won the next election after the Borbidge fiasco whereas by supporting the Libs in Brisbane City Council for the first term it gave the Liberals a scapegoat for anything that went wrong and then Labor got flogged in the March elections this year.
Not a good idea to have the Nationals to take the credit for all the good and Labor to wear the blame for all the stuffups. Let the conservatives wear it on their own head. WA is the leading state at present economically, it won’t take long for the conservatives to turn that around.
Exactly Fulvio!
oh, except it will take the full 4 year term!
ABC:
Morley 73.9% count ,Forestville (count 71%) & Riverton (74.4% count) Labor leads 0.3% , 0.2% and 0.1%
Labor 26 , Libs 22 Natw 4 Indendents 3 (plus will win Alfred Cove)
Does any other site hav later info as this could be a late nite , not sure of odds of Labor winning ALL 3 of th above
Maybe they are not Labor, just non-Liberal.
Sure did, now the Libs have only won 10 seats, but lost 3; 2 to Labor leaning independents, and 1 to a Nat.
Of the 4 in doubt, Labor leads 3, and a non-pre selected Labor canddiate is leading 1.
I think there will be another W.A. election in 12 months.
Interesting times…
Postal votes?
I thought Lib supporters were ok tonight! Got a bit carried away with their portending Labor’s future…but not rude (cept one dick) and just enjoying the victory.
508 Mathew – as much as it gauls me to say this, I really wouldn’t be judging Liberal supporters by some of the, how do I put this nicely, idiots we get on here. There are reasonable Lib supporters frequenting this blog. Also, it has to be said, not all Labor supporters are pure either, although they are here.
Mathew Cole, as a Labor supporter I can’t see that any professed Liberal supporter on this blog has been offensive to any extent more than the euphoria of an unexpected win could be expected to elicit.
More fool you for voting Liberal!
Though maybe I’ve forgot some earlier stuff…ah well, couldn’t have been too full on.
Gary , when you said all Labor supporters here were pure , you obviously forgot me given th many warm complements I receive
Ron, you’re one of the purest.
Who would postal votes favour?
Don’t postal votes usually go with the swing?
So I guess we won’t find out for a few more days based on postals? ABC has upper house predicting Nat 4-Lib1-Apl1 – most likely agricultural on that one.
Bowe #512 and Gary Bruce #521,
Fair point. However, aren’t people like ESJ saying all the time how Liberal supporters are SO much better than ALP supporters?
FS#522,
Ordinarily, I wouldn’t (vote Liberal). However, I am fed up with Carps and his lot (more the lot that Carps himself). The fact of the matter is that I doubt Good News Geoff could have won this one. The ALP Gov’t here has been too complacent and indolent, aided and abetted by the Opposition that wasn’t.
Ron
I was just looking at those figures on the ABC site and I’m confused?
Going on them labor could get 29 seats and have a couple of independents likely to side with them?
Buggered if i know what to think!
This is absolutely insane.
If everything goes right for them from here on in, ALP might still be able to form government.
If the ALP hold onto their leads in Forrestfield, Riverton, Albany and Wanneroo, which are all likely apart from Wanneroo which is line ball (though a high prepoll vote might see an ALP win), they’ll end up with a majority.
Like I said, this night is bizarre.
sorry i meant Mining and Pastoral [ I love the simple names WA has for their upper house regions]
P_O #528,
That is so obviously a glitch, as it only appears under “North Metro”.
Given that the Nats only ran two candidates, them getting four seats is…unlikely.
Note of clarification: that above comment was based on current ABC predictions, which, presumably, have had some of the earlier bugs ironed out now that Antony’s off the air…?
Rohan, they seem to be creeping up slowly on the WAEC as well…don’t know if I’m just reading my wishful thinking in…is it possible?
I am really looking forward to the West’s publication of comments from Paul Murray and Robert Taylor – I think they will be extremely wise after the event!
So when will the punters be paid out? What about a possibility Carps holds on and then it switches to Barnett very early in the term? [Based on current seats and I'm thinking if carps lasts a sitting or two first - not being defeated on first sitting back.] Who would technically ‘win’ the election?
Perhaps Carps should have called the election earlier – especially if the upper house swings strongly against Labor. [With all those magical dates he could have called the election mentioned earlier on the Antony Green Blog for memory.]
Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-sus
One of the most extrodinary and unpredictable elections I have ever seen.
But a Liberal/National/Conservative independent coalition is still the most likely outcome….
I’ve been having the same thoughts as you… If the ALP gets three out of the outstanding four (Morley, Albany, Riverton, Forrestfield), they can form a minority government with Bowler and Adams, right? Am I reading this wrong?
Sounds about right Matt- very interesting indeed. And everyone was saying the US Presidential Election was going to be close – geee this is as close as it gets.
Morley is gone, I’m hearing…but the other three are chances.
Who the f*** knows what Bowler will do though…and would Carpenter accept his support anyway?
Ahhhh, we’re not going to have another election are!? And soon!?
My mother, normally a one eyed bigot (ok, like me) has always voted Liberal but this state election voted Labor by postal vote. Beware those postal votes!
Nick @ 535
Technically: possible, yes.
WAEC count is at 71.28% and ABC has pulled 67.7%, and I can only assume that the ABC predictions will become more and more accurate now that the on-air stressful part is over and the results keep coming in.
Upper house predications by ABC…
at current…
Liberal – 7
ALP – 5
Nationals – 4
Greens – 2
so left 7 v right 11
Even if Carps does scrape in – it’s possible the opposition will control the upper house. [Admit all this talk about the upper house is completely weighted towards conservative parties - will the upper house even get one vote one value? I say bring on PR.]
SLAUGHTERFEST! Absolute carnage across the board on a MASS LEVEL. Damn Woollard and Greens preferences. This is the worst scenario: an apparent National balance of power.
529 Mathew – I understand, boy do I understand, your annoyance when it comes to people like ESJ, having been on the receiving end of his childish antics, but they really are the exception to the rule. They’re a great bunch here.
Morely @ 73.9% counted ALP 50.6 Lib 49.4
why would it be gone for Labor?
Hello my friend Vera ,
agree , ABC figures I posted on #516 show all 3 with small labor leads , but in 20 minutes since no more figures
Perhaps William can say how th 4 Independents will lean (incl Alfred cove listed as doubtful but who should win
ABC has ALP ahead by 180 votes in Morley with 73.9% counted
Who controlled the Upper House before the election?
Matt C @ 538
3 out of 5: Add Wanneroo to the list. For some reason it isn’t on the ‘too close to call’ page.
WAEC has Nahan in front by 32 votes
Morley postal votes likely to run hard against Labor…
Wanneroo only 6 votes the diff?
Independent (formerly Labor) and Greens if I’m not mistaken Gary.
If the ALP win 3 of those four in doubt, do they still need Bowler to get to 30, or would his vote make it 31?
Are they still counting?
Gary – wasn’t it a BOP of the Greens beforehand?
What are you basing the postal votes in Morley to run hard against the ALP?
Thanks Fulvio.
ah yes forgot about those “independents” – makes WA politics so confusing with all the “independent” labor and liberal around
Greens votes will hurt Labor in those close seats…preferences flowing closer to 60% than 70% to the ALP
Riveton now 0.1% to Libs yet still at 74.4% of count
Hi there Ron how’s things?
not sure about the Alfred Cove one but I think the independent who won Kwinana would have to be more to the left wouldn’t she?
Janet Woollard arrived at Alfred Cove in 2001 as “Liberals for Forests” candidate. Carole Adams in Kwinana has been twice rebuffed for Labor preselection.
Vera
just hoping a few hundred votes go Labors way in a few seats & not sure how to answer Gary
Carol Adams = ALP
Liz Constable = Liberal
John Bowler = Unsure maybe Liberal leaning
Four Nats = Show me the Pork
It looks like those 3 line ball seats will decide the election. If all go to Labor… then I’m sure they could coax Carol into a ministerial position? That would give them 30 [basing on current abc predictions]. The question would be then – who would they put as Speaker to consolidate their support in the lower house? Surely they wouldn’t put Bolger in. Perhaps Mr Grylls himself? lol Since he does love any sort of power he can get his hands on. Maybe Woolard?
I was under the impression that Woolard had been defeated in Alfred Cove
I thought John Bowler was Labor leaning.
I woulnd’t call bowler lob leaning….he could go with them, but that would be more because Carps wouldn;t want his support. Bowles is a Labor man thru and thru
Did anyone record the ABC TV coverage? I am very keen for a transcript of Matt Birney’s comments about The West Australian.
If you select a speaker and the numbers are tied on the floor the speaker gets the deciding vote doesn’t he/she?
What a c**k up. did I say another election within 12 months? Make it six.
Yes but from the way he was talking he seemed grateful to the Liberal people who had supported him and made the comment that people were wrong to see him as aligned with the ALP.
Mexican @ 570
Unless the ABC is lying to me?
Sue Walker [IND] is definitely gone.
But it says Woollard is holding on just.
Well brickbats the the intellectual rust-buckets in Carpenter’s office….what dills. They dealt the libs into the game for no reason in this campaign.
That’s the Burke in him talking.
Listening to the call of the board it seems the ALP made several cock ups with their pre-selections therefore the Liberals will have a real problem holding several seats.
577
Politics_Obsessed Says:
September 7th, 2008 at 1:49 am
Mexican @ 570
Unless the ABC is lying to me?
Sue Walker [IND] is definitely gone.
But it says Woollard is holding on just.
Thanks for that!!
Would Sue Walker be considered a lost to the WA Parliament.
Fulvio,
Bowler is a good bloke, and well respected in his electorate…to equate him with the deliberate misdemeanours of the Burke crew is misguided.
“Listening to the call of the board it seems the ALP made several cock ups with their pre-selections therefore the Liberals will have a real problem holding several seats.”
It must be because it’s late but can you explain what this means?
Labor could still be in then – let’s say they get the 26… then grab 2 of the 3 in doubt… surely then they could get bowler and adams to side with them for 30 against woollard [if she pulls through otherwise lib] constable nats and libs for 29.
Give Adams the position of speaker? But then again, Bowler was close to Grill and might not be good putting him in a ministerial position. So perhaps Bowler as Speaker and Adams for a cabinet spot?
What can I say? I was cocky little bugger a few weeks back.
Oh well, time to look for a new job…
Well after scrutineering tonight i have invented a new term to describe the voters which helped Libs get in reach of government
Pro Unranium Greens or PUGs as I will now call them.
Big swings to Greens, big green pref shift to Libs.
Will the Greens now listen to thier new voters and shift thier stance on uranium?
Either way, Anthonys graphs didnt include preferences tonight and my tip is the results will look worse for ALP in the light of morning.
Gryllls won’t go to the highest bidder – I don’t think… – he and the Nats are hurting because they are becoming irrelevant – they need massage and a measure of niceness spoken to them. Kim Beasley said on ABC TV ‘give them what they want’ – the Graham Richardson – ‘whatever it takes’ approach – Will Barnett do the same?
Mexican @ 581 – I’m not too sure about that one. I think she would have been good as an independent.
BTW – great interactive site
There’s no way the Nats could suppport the ALP…they would get cricified in their own redneck conservative electorates for supporting a party still thought if as a pack of homosexual, communist union thugs by most country folk
generlisations acknowledged, its late and I’m tired….
I have to admit… I’m an ALP supporter who was distraught a couple of hours ago, but I’m starting to become slightly optimistic
Do try the veal?
Ok Big Blind Dave. Well I can’t wait for the morning then – don’t think I’d be able to sleep tonight. Too exciting!
590- That’s WA heart land amigo- it’s not called the Deep West for nothin
I was under the impression that the speaker and president in WA houses of parliament don’t get casting votes. Or did I dream this up? Hmm.
Agree w/ BBD @ 586
ACTUAL green preference flows are very bad for the ALP
During the call of the board they discussed the seats where the Premier chose candidates over the top of existing MPs like Bob Kacura and John D’cruza (sorry about the spelling) and the view was the ALP would have held those seats had the pre-existing MPs had contested
Antoher seat they mentioned Involved the young women MP who departed the seat.
MB @ 596
Carpenter is hated within vast swathes of the ALP for his arrogant and stupid behaviour on pre-selections, and his contempt of the party that he purports to represent.
The ructions are only beginning, and I think that whoever forms government, Carps’ days as Premier are numbered
Beemer 596 Its D’Orazio FWIW
I know Bowler’s a decent bloke. But the fact is he made a grave error of judgement in associating with Burke and it’s not an error that can be easily swept aside or forgiven.
Should he play silly buggers with Labor and try and try to retaliate for their reaction to his misjudgement he will go down even lower in Labor supporters’ estimation. He has a chance now to make amends. It’s up to him.
They wont mind so much if the NATS deliver the required pork to the deep west.
Fulvio, Bowler’s a decent bloke agreed. Good mate of Ian Taylor’s of course. Both decent men but can they adjust to the emerging situation?
Fulvio @ 600
Bowler was taken advantage of by a bloke he had known for 40 years and trusted implicitly
He deserved to lose his ministry but not his ALP membership
Booting him out was a stupid, knee-jerk reaction that he would have every right to be bitter about…if he sided againt the ALP not too many people cuold blame the man
Partuclarly as he represents an electorate that had a notional 7% Lib margin before tonight, and where the Libs outpolled Labor 24 to 16 percent
And booting out Ian Taylor was petty and vindictive, IMO
L @ 598
what also has nubered days is the Partys structures and processes that have seen faction boss strangle holds tangle with party boss impositions to the exclusion of the membership base and the detriment of the electoral outcome
Who might want to trade their preferences for the Speakership?? Casting vote and no deliberative vote . . .
How about that upper house…
12 Left v 18 Right
If Libs don’t get in – in the lower house – I definitely think some people are right about an early election – the earliest in 101 years perhaps?
Leg. Council changes on 21 May next year – what might get done in that time – depends on greens maybe
turn it up BBD
The factional bosses have been responsible for the successful pre-selections in this cycle, and the Premier responsible for some howlers (Mt Lawley, Morley, Kwinana)
Big Blind Dave -sorry I couldn’t get the gist of your post @ 605.
strange understanding of success you have L
Nice – L,
You might have had the shoe on the other foot if a few votes had been different – how would you have called it for Mt Lawley before tonight?
I called Mt Lawley for the Libs 2 weeks ago…admittedly I didn;t see the Kwinana result coming though
ABC Count has been frozen for an hour , any reason
Morley 73.9% count ,Forestville (count 71%) & Riverton (74.4%)
As of hour ago , Labor 26 , Libs/Nats 26 Independents 4
Seems like whoever wins 2 out of three of these can form Govt , as Independents on what I understand from williams comments could split 2 and 2
Dumping Kucera was a farce of a decision, and the Libs got smart with their candidate selection
Perhaps they’ve packed up for the night?
610- belonging to and contributing to the ALP is now often done only with permission of a powerful few in a real sense and this has not been of any real benefit in electoral terms.
This is what happens when a party is in power for a long time- any party- they start using that powere to protect what they have and they use it less for achieving the progressive change they once believed in
Eh L,
Good call if true.
The ‘factional bosses’ as you call them BBD, supported Tony O’Gorman, who had a great result in Joondalup tonihgt, as well as getting new talent like Wyatt into the party in the last couple of years. And if Waddell holds on in Forrestfield, giving the ALP government, it will be no thanks to Alan C
morley added to ALP win list
ABC hasn’t been frozen for that long – but votes haven’t moved in the key seats on WAEC for ages.
i’ll rephrase that – ‘it’s just that…’
The real issue, BBD, is that the Premier and his staff has been so hopelessy incompetent and arrogant that they have creaeted tongiht’s result, when Labor should have easily got betwenn 32-35 seats without a sweat being broken
I am still digesting this – Is Albany still rebelling against the trend – Pete’s a good bloke. And how is Steve Thomas going in Collie-Preston – best of the two I thought – even though Mick Murray is still one of the great old-style labor members
another 1.9% of Morley Counted 75.8% now Labor 50.4 to 49.6 , gained 0.1% , this is turtle pace
Ok – elephant in the room.
What is Alan Carpenter’s position?
Morley to labor.
sweet! ABC have given Morley to ALP
Bloody hell.
It’s still too close to call.
But going off last update, I’d be feeling slightly less panicky if I was a Labor supporter… they could win this yet.
L- I agree with you about carpenters choices I am not arguing that at all.
What i also saw a BIGGER list of ALP candidates loose seats they should have won tonite, not just the two or three Carps had a hand in the preselections of.
Even the fact we are hoping Forrstfield might get up and not already toasting an ALP win tells me you are overstating the wisdom of the factional system.
Schnitzel @ 626 – answer is one word…Untenable
He must be sacked quickly in favour of anyone with an agenda and a half-decent staff
the numbers are already being counted for his execution, I can promise you that
Forrestville also another 2% counted in last hour now 73.6% , margin 0.2% unchanged , 50.2% to 49.8% , ar th counters paid by hour or by each vote over there
BBD,
A lot of those candidates suffered from a very very crap campaign courtesy of Carps and the morons in his office…calling an election AFTER Buswell quit, but BEFORE you have time to attack Barnett…sheer lunacy
How long do they keep counting tonight? I’m a’gettin’ a bit sleepy, is it worth staying up or will there be no result for days?
Antony Green was personally and overtly critical of WAEC- I don’t really depend on these figues. What is going on?
Result won’t be known tonight, vera — that’s the only thing I AM certain about!
Hi Vera
hav a drink , if Labor win Forrestville , up currently by 0.2% , maybe happy days , thats without th other cliffhanger that Labor ar behind in Riverton by only 0.1% )
Riverton = 32 votes
Vera , left off last sentence there , hav drinkl , then nite , Labor is in with a show
Rohan 629
Stab at it – ALP is duffed. Q is what shape will the funny ‘coalition’ of the willing take and how long will it last in the initial form?
Does ‘Final for the Night’ at WAEC means that’s it for now?
Where i scrutineered the WAEC were trying to do optional preferential counting for the first 45 mins until myself and the Lib scrut asked the WTF they thought they were doing.
votes with only 3 out of 5 squares marked were being counted and all kinds of tick, cross and number combos.
There was some confusion as they polling officer said they were all trained in the new optional and “exhaustive” voting system and after much debate and a phone call or two i think they did it as we hoped.
I wonder how wide spread this was and if our phone call prompted calls out to all booths and some recounting?
Hence the WAEC hold ups?
Ta Rohan
Hey imagine how all those Libs that saw the ABC onlne headline “Labor loses power in nail-biting WA vote” and went to bed happy would feel if they wake up in the morning and Labor ain’t gone at all! lol
What a night – Michelle Roberts wasn’t a happy chappie, and that is an understatement.
But I’ll say one thing, it’s the Kaths and Kims out there who have created a real monster of a government.
Ron
good idea i just made a cuppa
Frank
Was Michelle thinking of calling Brian to ask for support to run as party leader again?
BTW, a Christian Democrats candidate was handing out HTV cards in Swan Hills, despite the ban on candidates doing so.
This MAY go to the court of disputed returns.
I wouldn’t get too excited, Frank.
I don’t know, but Mike Dean was going to pay a visit about Carol Adams
And should clarify that the CDP candidate was for another seat.
Oh and the”THis Person Votes” awatd goes to to a Tatooed gentlemen at the Upper Swan Primary School who asked “Which Party Promised the V8 Supercars” (it was the libs, and voted accordingly.)
Hoi all, esp Frank – Michele was looking only to retain her seat wasn’t she? Is this some kind of vistory for her?
WTF happend in Kwinnana???
Wasn’t that supposed to be a new ALP safe seat???
meant ‘Victory” not ‘vistory’ for Michelle 651 above
Do they count on Sunday?
Hrmm down to 32 votes in my good old “bellwether” electorate of Riverton, I told you it would be close. If labor wins by 1 vote all you labor punks owe me one!
By the way a CDP how to vote dude shoved a card in my face and asked in an unsure voice, “Vote Christian Democrat???”
“Sorry, Im an atheist” I said. He wasn’t impressed. I enjoyed it.
Go Socceroos!
I was told no James
Don’t think so, the shops don’t even open Sundays.
Excellent question- usual answer is not good
Frank C. glad you’re still around. For just a fleeting moment I thought you might have done yourself some harm!
Just kidding.
Vera ,
so did I , never know we may just get over line here , although postals always a problem for Labor
If I recall, Michelle Roberts is in the splinter faction that split from the ‘Old Right’ on account of Burke’s shadow.
If it’s any consolation to Roberts, the swing in her seat was a mere 1.5%, 1% if you go by the two party preferred vote. By contrast, fellow New Right member John Kobelke copped a nasty 7.2% swing towards the Liberals in Balcatta.
Yes, but prepolls? Particularly the earlier ones (the Libs got gradually stronger over the campaign — the earlier of the prepolls might, as a general rule, favour Labor slightly more than usual — or?)
Ryano 655
You ought to be ashamed of yourself.
Where were you supporting our great personnally independent political capacity?
Yet you were ridiculing those who make it work . .
Laugh at those who do the job why don’t you .. .
Nah, stayed till the end – the Bloody Swan Valley residents delivered Swan Hills to Alban – Arbor Grove Primary School went to Labor.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Swan_Hills/polling_place_results.php
Well I’m off to bed
Fathers day tomorrow and i have to think how to explain to my daughter that by the time she joins the workforce in about eight years (two terms) she could be on some kind of 40% of sweet f$%k all junior pay rate like the last time the Libs were in govt in WA.
The trickle down effect is making a come back- did it really go anywhere?
You would think Alfred Cove is more likely an IND win. 51.1 / 48.9
If Labor loses Riverton then it is 28/23 Nats 4 Ind 4
????
Get yourselves out of the gutter all such as BBD and FC above.
There is a new political situation in the offing – get into it.
Hmm, prepolls and Postals are already up in Swan Hills.
unbelievable at 72.1% of vote , labor has only 35.9% Primary and is still in it
“If Labor loses Riverton then it is 28/23 Nats 4 Ind 4″
27/22 – 4 – 3
There was a Family First dude at the Brentwood polling station who looked the spitting image of Alan Carpenter. He was entertaining the long line of voters with his reparte while handing out HTV cards, and to be honest he was very good.
An eldery haus frau of Liberal proportions and orientation took offence to “Carpenter” being so close to the polling booth and made her indignation known to whoever would listen,
Hilarious, but I suppose you had to be there.
?
Greens 11.5% of the vote but not a seat to show for it?
Alfred Cove is much more likley Janet Woollard and hubby doctors group than Lib.
Riverton is still much too close. .
Well the way Colin Barnett was speaking by not mentioning The Nats or Grylls by name, means that somehow The Nats won’t get into bed with The Libs.
I reckon Carps will sell his (and the ALP’s) soul to retain Government
And The Nats will be The West’s new Whipping Boy
I was looking at the ABC site.
me too
the Totals
And Perth Now are talking up The Libs result as a fait accomplei.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/
Frank Labor will be the West’s whipping boy and the Nats will get blamed for anything that goes right.
Frank 675,
Two days is my guess – not the weeks it took that recently stepped-down crazy, Winston Peters, to sort himself and the Labour Party out in New Zealand some time ago . . .
Seems to me Labor only needs to win Forrestville or riverton whilst Libs need to win both (PLUS win over th Nats) , given Independens split 2/2
there are 59 seats
Ron
got my fingers crossed, if the miracle happens I’d then love to see the look on Rambo Bishops face. Brenda better not get too close, she’d likely rip his head off.
You’re right Thomas…sorry, how am I reading it wrong then??
No 684
What is most alarming is that vera can support the corpse that is Mr Carpenter.
Vera
but she did protect his manhood on th plane against Belinda Neal !
s’alright, the in-doubts aren’t counted in.
she’s likely to give him a good bitch-slapping to vent her frustrations, and because he deserves it anyway
Generic, what would be even funnier is if the Libs couldn’t even win this trick!
Are you posting much on the Lyne thread by the way?
In doubts not counted in – one is Riverton which I give to the Libs. I give the in doubt IND to them. For the sake of argument.
That gives 28/23/4/4
depending on how accurate Anthony’s site is at the moment.
Generic Person
#686
“What is most alarming is that vera can support the corpse that is Mr Carpenter.”
an that was your intellectual contribution and directed at a Lady to boot
Seats in doubt
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/seatsindoubt.htm
Ron if they win Forrestville or riverton fair enough. Lose both and they should just let the circus take over especially in light of this.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24301274-643,00.html
Nah Generic they can toss him to the back benches
So…. who won?
Steve
“Ron if they win Forrestville or riverton fair enough. Lose both and they should just let the circus take over especially in light of this.”
absolutely agree Steve , take th loss (and “message” that was there) , could you see a Libs minority lasting
No 691
Loony left feminists demand equal treatment, thus I will not reserve my attacks.
And Ron, frankly the ALP deserves no support in WA or NSW. Corrupt and incompetent. QLD is a different story – Beattie/Bligh are OK (Dr Death was despicable though).
AEC has Morley, Waneroo ( up by 6 notional distrib to ALP) and Northwest to Labour that makes 28 plus riverton plus forresfield) = 30.
much more seats in doubt than ABC
Nobody tonight
The parliament is hung like a big male organ.
On the balance of probabilities I would say Labor with two IND. But that is taking at face value what is on the ABC site and assuming postals don’t reverse anything.
Frank, you’re giving a new meaning to the expression ‘donkey vote”.
The Liberals will kick themselves if they do lose. Like in the NT, had an unexpected chance to win and then to just miss out – giving Labor the chance and time to put its act in order for the next election.
The amount of people today refusing ANY How To Vote card gave no idea on what the voting intentions are, and it was the 20 somethings in the Sunglasses who were the worst offenders – Bloody Howard Yoof.
Even if they don’t end up winning, I’ll still go to bed tonight with a smile on my face, knowing that Bishop and co certainly won’t have one on theirs.
Yep Generic that’s me loony and loving every minute
ABC site last updated at 12.23am. have they finished for the night then?
“On the balance of probabilities I would say Labor with two IND. But that is taking at face value what is on the ABC site and assuming postals don’t reverse anything.”
TP, I hope they are all in good health and unlikely to be forced out at a by-election.
It is disappointing that the results are this close; given that on primary votes alone the ALP should be well and truly out of office. Barnett should abolish preferential voting and bring in the NSW system.
Yep, but the best place for results is the WA Electoral Commission website, it even includs booth results.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/
It will not happen, the Upper House hasn’t got one vote one value – and I don’t think they’ll pass the legislation.
Thanks Frank
What’s happening in North West?
Latest figures show Labor not just ahead, but well ahead.
Can that be right?
Ohh, Catania has won North West.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_North_West/polling_place_results.php
Big swing to Nats, but based on 0 votes last time…so no huge dent into ALP.
No 713
Where are the Nationals preferences flowing in North West?
Never Surrender
#699
Northwest is in Labors 27 , Waneroo is a large 0.6% deficit 50.6 to 49.4 at 72.9% so can not see that coming back , just need one of two in doubt , just leading one & just behind in other
Tink Antonys pref models ar superior to AEC’s
Vera
AEC says all seats ar final for nite , so good nite all
GP 713,
Beat me to it. I assume North West was written off because of (apparently false) assumptions about where the Nationals preferences would go.
G’nite Ron
Excuse my hazy understanding but isn’t North West based on Greens and Fullarton’s preferences?
Greens very close to a whole quota in the metro seats, and as for Freo…
The mood was a curious mix of jubilation and trepidation.
Probably just like everyone else’s party…
re 716 ron
This is a strange election where the people hate both parties and were actually voting on the individual they new, so more popular local members went against the normal big swing (where there was no incumbent the ALP got whacked). If postals may favour sitting members contrary to standard swings this dynamic may not be covered by the modelling.
No 718
I’d say it’s still too close to call Northwest until more votes are counted. If the trend continues in the GRN & IND favour, it would be safe to say that the LNP have no chance. But at this stage, it’s too early.
That’s it in a nutshell, especially in Swan Hills where Alban was known as a City Of Swan Councillor, it worked in his favour, though the Libs lost the Arbor Grove booth because of his comments re Ellenbrook residents should be paying extra rates to subsidise the Rest of the Council.
Are there many more votes to be counted?
This is a seat with a large district allowance remember.
If there’s only declaration votes to come, then I can’t see how the Libs can win from 45.73%.
re 724
And Carol Adams ( mayor) won Kwinana and Michael Sutherland (Perth City Council Deputy) won Mt Lawley (Kucera would have won it)
26 ALP
25 Lib/Nat
2 Labor Independents
1 Liberal Independent
5 in doubt – Albany, Alfred Cove, Forrestfield, Riverton, Wanneroo.
Tipping Lib in Albany / Ind in Alfred Cove / Libs in remaining 3.
(based on WAEC final figures for the night + tendency for conservatives to better in late mail)
Thus:28 Labor + Independents / 31 Libs /Nats + independents.
But: Albany / Forrestfield / Riverton are 2 close to call with confidence.
Possible is: Labor Alliance 31 / Conservatives 28
In which case: an election in 12 months, since LC results are mostly going the way of the conservatives.
William,
It’s under “Notional Distribution of Preferences”.
I wonder how many people DID’NT vote, for elctorates like Morley with 23.000 odd the total for the night is 17,356
Assuming you’re asking about North West, there’s still quite a few votes to count according to the WAEC, who say there’s 16,000 electors but have counted votes for 9,500.
I guess the direction those votes take will be determined by where the remaining votes actually come from – I’d assume they’ve already counted the votes out of the main towns, so it would be remote communities that still have to be counted.
IIRC this is an area with a pretty low turnout though, I think < 90% at past elections.
Hmm, there’s a polling booth at Useless Loop Primary School.
I think a lot of dope smokers who voted for the Libs will be in for a surprise when they outlaw their Bongs
Thanks David, I deleted my question within a few seconds of posting it because I worked it out.
Plenty of life in this election- you bet ALP has a few options why not give Janet a call- no love loss there with the libs. she probably won’t run another term, last chance for a ministerial once in a lifetime post. Hubby Dr Woollard made up with McGinty , come on jim have brekky with them to-morrow and keep boosting those southern health services
But Janet has said in one of her mailouts or in the media that she would support Barnett.
Actually in Swan Hills Labor had posters saying “Vote Labor and this school will be upgraded, and “vote Labor and we will build the new Midland Hospital”. I noted that the Upper Swan Booth had no pics of Barnett, and the lady who rang 6PR allgeging that she rang Jaye & Giffard about traffic outside the school and getting no response was in my opinion, pulling everyone’s proverbial – as acording to both electorate officers, they never recieved any calls – and they DO record Every contact with electors.
No 730
I tend to agree Mr Q. It’s not appropriate to predict an ALP win just yet given the huge swing against it in that electorate. There’s no reason to suspect that swing won’t continue, but I’ll reserve judgment until more results are forthcoming.
736:
Actually GP, the current swing in North West according to the WAEC is 0.6% to the ALP, not away.
No 737
Apologies Mr Q, you’re correct. I read the wrong figure on the ABC website.
How many early votes were made before the lib’s ads were shown last week?
Have I missed something? I thought that the Nats were independant and not part of a coalition and will vote with which ever party gives them what they want. Also Carpenter has already been speaking with Grylls from the Nats.
morning all
geez wouldnt it be tragic if the fibs just got pipped at the post
there will be some very very sad people out there
all i can say is after reading this thread that the fib supporters need a win -any win,in fact i’m sure the fibs would celebrate winning a chook raffle at the moment
and that would be all they deserve.
ps did anyone ask buswell if he could sniff victory
They say they are. In reality, it’d be amazing if they didn’t go with the Libs… then again, you never know. If the swing against Labor was that big, it’d be very hard for the Nationals to spin.
Arr, what a disaster. This has helped ruin my night (along with not being able to wear a nice hat in a formerly free ‘n’ easy nightclub). I did my democratic chore down in scary Kelmscott, and voted ALP 1 for the first time ever. Usually I preference them after the Greens or a half-decent independent… this time I reckoned McTiernan’s done well enough for me to not do the usual protest vote. I guess that makes me a little out of step (although she did get a swing towards her). It’ll be a shame she’s gone (I’m assuming a shaky Liberal minority govt, although I’ll be happy to be proven wrong)… if it’s so, she’ll be wasted on the opposition. You Vics or NSW’ers need to find her a safe seat, you could use a decent transport and planning minister.
(Oh my god, I just realised that new minister will likely be Simon O’Brien, knucklehead MLC who hated the Mandurah line being put through leafy Applecross. Well, across the river from it. OMG, poor people might pass though! What an absolute disaster for WA.)
Also, where the hell did Carol Adams come from? That was Labor’s second-safest seat. And as for Adele Carles in Freo… gawd, that’s funny. She got a few % last time running as a ‘Save South Beach’ independent… now she’s got possibly the best result ever for a Green in the lower house in WA. (Is it, knowledgable ones?) Jim Scott must be grumpy.
Hmmm,
I guess it’ll be mid-week before we have an outcome?
What will the Party think of Carpenter’s ludicrous decision to go early? Surely, even if Labor hangs on in a minority Govt, his position must be shaky internally in the next couple of years?
Truss sounded almost suicidal on AM. He was not too sure that the Nats will back the Libs.
Fun night!… Hat’s off to Mr Bowe for his mighty efforts to bring us the news in the face of multiple tech drama’s… Well done William!. if the Lib’s form Gov then I’ve won a few pennies, will send you some for a nice “recovery red”
“But deputy federal opposition leader Julie Bishop said there was little chance the Nationals would desert the Liberals if they were required to help them form government.
“People who vote National would expect them to form a coalition government (with the Liberals),” she said.”
Why vote for the Nats at all then if they are just going to side with the libs anyway. Way to go Julie,to paint the Nats as an independent party with their own thought processes.
The more you think about it, you realise this really is a horrible result for Labor.
The Liberals have churned through four leaders this term, are led by someone who had already announced his retirement, had about half their party resign in a huff, have Sniffsniff as their 2IC, were caught unprepared for an early election, and two weeks of the campaign drowned out by the Olympics. And the WA economy is booming.
So what the hell happened?
Fascinating election. Whoever governs will be seeking another election pretty quickly you would think. Governing under these circumstances will not be easy.
“So what the hell happened?”
Ask the people of WA. They have to live with it.
William, so it sounds like a minority Liberal government is still more likely than a Labor one?
What’s the 2PP?
“What’s the 2PP?”
With a name like Pseph I would expect you to be telling us.
This is probably the wrong thread but Milne is spinning last night’s events in Mayo and Lyne as a devastating blow to Nelson and a call for Turnbul or Cossie to take over.
Mayo blow to Nelson will force Costello’s hand
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24306737-5006301,00.html
MDMC @ 747,
Yes, it’s a horrible result for Labor, no matter how people may try to spin it. Perhaps not the smartest early election?
Even if Carpenter hangs on, he’s gone from a comfortable position to one where he’s dependent on independents (and what will presumably be a pretty pissed-off ALP) to keep his job.
And all this has been achieved by his own fair hand.
Dio @ 753,
Mayo is a pretty big blow for Nelson I would have thought. You would know better than I do, but I wonder how much Briggs’s “creator of WorkChoices” persona contributed?
Lyne not so much – although the sheer size of Oakeshott’s win was ominous for the Nationals.
Milne is probably a bit scared of the current fad of bagging people who dare to force early elections,a weird construct that hasn’t seemed to apply in Gippsland,or Mayo but will the Liberals encounter it in Higgins?
from the world of dodgy baba ganoush comes this pearler
“”Well that’s because the economy has deteriorated over the last six to 12 months and what you’ve seen is that people are worse off since the election of Kevin Rudd and Australians are saying it was a lot better under the previous federal government than it is under the current Federal Government,” he said.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/07/2357520.htm?section=justin
There was nothing to say of course that had Carpenter given the Libs more time to prepare and gone early next year that the result would have been any better. In fact you could mount a case for thinking it may have been worse.
Just on this idea of whether it was a good or bad result, so what? It has happened and it is bad to lose so many seats. I don’t recall anyone suggesting otherwise. What would be a remarkable achievement now is if Labor hangs on to form a minority government.
The National is a conservative party
Most of the people who voted for them voted 1 Nat 2 Lib last Lab
If the Nationals betray their base and supported a Labor government, they better get the Sun, the moon and several thousand stars for the country area, if not they will be wiped out at the next election, when the people who vote them in kick them out.
and if the Lab give in, there is no chance they will win the next election …. weak, unstable gov, who do not know if they are progressive or conservative
There will be threats, but the Nat will not end with Labor
There will be weak, unstable government no matter who forms it. That’s what has happened here.
dovif
There is a precedent in SA.
Ru
shoosh – the fibs dont like facts that upset their narratives
Mr Barnett also congratulated his opponent, but added that the voters of Western Australia had clearly rejected the Carpenter Government.
“The voters of Western Australia have clearly expressed their viewpoint today,” he said.
“Clearly” ??????
Hung parliament, no majority to either party.
Clearly is majority governments that we have in all the other states and territories and federally.
Most likely atm
ALP 27 to 29
Lib 22 to 25
Nat 4
Ind 3 or 4
If postal and absentee acts like the last election (even without the swing) Liberal will win both seat from the ALP
Sue Walker will support the Liberal is the doubtful ind Vs Lib
So likely
ALP 27
Lib 24
Nat 4
2 ex-Lib independant who will support Barrett
1 ex- Lib 4F independant who has said will support Barrett
1 ex-Lab independant
so should be ALP+ ind 28 Lib + ind 31
3 seat minority government can be killed by 2 crossing the floor
One thing for sure is that the ‘unrepresentative swill’ in the senate madly blocking bills in the hope of forcing a Double Dissolution are likely to find all their efforts will come to zero.
764 dovif – no one is willing to claim those figures to be on the money. Still too close to call. By the way who is Barrett?
ruawake
no there isn’t
Rann had a minority government
he needs 2 of 4 independants to support him to have a majority
He did not smart thing and offer all 4 position in the government
Even if the Nat did not support him, he would have formed government
He just want to minimise the chance for 1 person to destroy his government by appeasing all 4 ind
He offered a Nat a cabinet position for the vote
There is already talk that the Nat is gone at the next election for supporting labor,
Garry
Must be a sad day in ALP land
had there been a person who went to an election that early and lost
you must think he would at least think there is an 80% chance of winning before jumping
Carpenter will be gone no matter what, even if ALP clear both too close to call
Re Nationals in SA: you have to remember the current Liberal Party there is already a ‘merger’ from earlier on of the conservative country and urban parties – which formed the Liberal Country League. The Liberals were a rebrand of the LCL once the Playmander left the scene. So any Nationals these days to not have as much significance as they do in say WA, Vic, NSW and especially QLD. [Remember NT has merged Nat/Lib party although the Nats did run as a separate party in the late 80's up there not to much avail though]
Dovif, ALP land will hold up alright. The crying and gnashing of teeth is coming from the conservative side. A Liberal rabble in coalition with a mob that want nothing to do with them will make for an interesting week full of laughs.
That is why their sole National MP could take that risk and go into a COALITION with Labor. [yes to those conservatives out there- it is a coalition- so deal with it]
768 dovif – no, he thought it was his best chance. Of course he had to go in 6 months time anyway and that was no choice. I don’t accept Carpenter will go if he remains as premier. Why would he either go himself or be pushed when the numbers are needed? Doesn’t make sense.
An election loss or near thing is not a pleasant thing but it makes no difference to me at all. I’m interested in the politics of it across the board. I’d have preferred Labor to get up but such is life.
Gary Bruce where were you last night when the despairing colleagues needed you?
This is a terrible result for Labor. The smarties thought they would clean up with an early election. As it turned out the simplest of promises from a credible leader ie to restore honest government was enough to finish them off.
The talk of a deal with the Nats only confirms the impression, Labor will say or do anything to cling on. In many ways it would probably be better for the Libs if they tried – it would simply prolong the agony and set up the Libs for a bigger swing in 12 months.
The only way back for WA Labor is a federal intervention and a cleanout of the ranks. WA Labor will have to skip a generation and rebuild.
If the Nationals were to support Labor though, which ministries do you think would go? And would they settle for Deputy Premier? I really do think it unreasonable for a party of 4 MPs in the house to ask for the Premiership – I’d like to see them try the same thing with the Liberals.
ha I could imagine the cold shower from that one.
The liberals will govern with the help of the Nationals.
Carps was too arrogant and complacent, he blew it.
Steve
well the electorate want to see it
They think the rabbles can do better than the ALP. Note an ALP vote of 35% means almosts 2 in 3 people did not vote the ALP, 2 in 3 people gave a no confidence to carpenter as a premier
That is pretty damning
and he change to electorate to give him a better chance of being elected
We’re aware of the conservative propaganda dovif but I remain convinced that if Labor can’t get a win without the Nats, they should let the rabble rule.
Actually if both too close to call falls Liberal and on past trand they probably will
it will be 24 Liberal +2 Liberal(Ind) Sue Walker and Liz Constable + 4 National
That is just a Lib Nat coalition, it might not be unstable at all
Well, thanks to William I’m in a more upbeat mood this morning with those surprise actuals from Morley and North West.
It’s a hung parliament, folks, and nothing will change to prevent that. It’s worse than what I thought would happen, but the Liberals certainly haven’t “won”, despite the gleeful assertions of La Bishop last night.
Hopefully we will now see what Brendan Grylls is made of. Those of you in the Eastern states are forgetting that he has actually expended a great deal of time and effort under his leadership to de-couple the Nationals from being the Liberals’ lapdog and taken them back to their roots as a party for the regions. And they’re probably more progressive here than anywhere. I believe he saw, correctly, that they would ultimately be destroyed if they didn’t become more independently minded – so a co-operative agreement with Labor is not out of the question at all, especially if the ALP ends up with 27 or 28 seats.
Still, I am happy for Grylls because his hard work appears to have paid off…and even if they do decide to vote with the Liberals, I can guarantee that daylight saving is going to be scrapped!
Either way, it will be a very unstable government in the Legislative Assembly – particularly if ALP-Bowler-Adams and Lib-Nat-Constable-Woolard are deadlocked 29-29 all the time with the Speaker’s casting vote. Therefore, this will be one the shortest-lived Parliaments in WA for a loooong time…
775 dovif – actually if they thought the rabbles could do a better job they would have given them a clear cut majority. It really was a case of we don’t trust either of you.
People walked in knowing the Nationals could be “independent”. I would assume those voter’s no 1 concern would be benefits to the bush.
If siding with Labor gives them more of those things then the Libs. (Note the “If”) Why would those voters punish the Nationals?
1 thing I would love is
Cost of Constable and Walker re-joining Liberal…………THE SNIFFLER
Sertse
because conservatives do not like Labor government
That is why most non mining rural seats are Liberal or National seats
and 3 of the Nats need Labor preference to get elected
and if the Nat vote falls 3-4% they finish below Labor and it cost them the seat
Phil doesn’t pull his punches:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24299095-5013491,00.html
Anyone have a link to figures on past postal, pre-poll, and absent voting in previous WA Elections?
Can I address some incorrect comments about Maywald in SA. As you know, she is a National. Rann needed her to form his FIRST government and she got Water. He promised to keep her on if he won a SECOND term, and if she was re-elected. She, and he, won easily. Her electorate was very happy to re-elect a National who helped Labor form a government.
The most stable government for WA would be a Labor/Nat one. The Nats would get Water and Primary Industry at least.
This could get interesting.
But the conservatives keep telling us that last night’s vote was for insability. Give it to them in buckets loads I say. Form a Nat/Lib coalition now!
Diogenes
do not know how you got the most stable government from
A conservative right wing party and a progressive party forming a coalition gives a stable government?
The Liberal if they won the 2 too close to call, which will both drift Lib way through absentee and postal
will have 24+ 2 Lib independant (who are part of the party)
add 4 National
gives a conservative coalition
Diogene
If the Lib and Labor form a coallition that would be pretty stable they will have 90% of Lower and 80% of upper house seat
According to the latest figures on the ABC site, Labor can potentially get to 29 seats, if they win 2 of the doubtfuls.
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Carpenter!
Wait and see what happens with the postals/absentees.
steve it’s over. For Labor making a clean break is a smarter move. Hanging on just leads to crises and instability which in turn leads to wipeout at subsequent polls.
If the WA Libs are as divided as everybody claims it would be smarter for the ALP to see the Libs in and out v.quickly (assuming they will be constantly fighting) and have a proper majority when it comes to a new poll.
Whatever way you choose to put it there is a conservative majority in the new WA parliament. If a bit of it (the Nats) goes with Labor its inherently unstable.
Fulvio nailed it last night – its better in some circumstances to be out then try and cling on.
Talkon (778)
According to the WAEC site, the final for the night in Morley is Whitby 7804 Britza 8327 on a notional 2PP. So I think Whitby has not made it.
They do have the strange position of Catania way ahead in North West on N2PP (54.27%), so maybe these figures need to be confirmed before it looks like the ALP could be back.
I agree with what you say about Grylls and the Nats. The WA Nats are not like other Nats.
so close to power you can sniff it eh ESJ
oh so much of a tease for the fibs
dangle dangle dangle
ESJ exactly what I say.
LOL Gusface, one would be stretching it to call State Government “power”.
Progressive,
I wouldn’t write off Labor – agree with that.
But surely the Labor backbench is not so supine as to let Carpenter get away with a self-indulgent act of political (near) suicide – an act that was based on the (incorrect) assumption that voters are sleepy dopes who will let you get away with anything, no matter how cynical, as long as you bear the brand name “ALP”.
Sure, they won’t challenge Carpenter next week or even next month. But his guru status is certainly gone! And maybe the Premiership as well, we will see.
ESJ
what would you call it then?
Gusface:
State Government = blood sucking bureacracy
Well I think Bomber might have made the observation last night, but Carps went too late not too early.
Catching sniffer in the chair almost certainly would have given Carps the easy landslide win he was assuming was going to happen as he ignored pre-selection candidates like Adams in Kwinana, assuming he didn’t need good candidates and that any mate of his was good enough.
Carp’s public stoush with Ms Radisich obviously didn’t help in Swan Hills, and D’orazio may have his revenge, if not the seat he was hoping for.
Some of you are saying it is about candidates, but while it might explain some labor hanging on, it doesn’t explain liberal candidates that would have to be considered weak on any measure still getting up. Just my view.
I agree that Carpenter f*cked it up!
Going to an early election 6 months earlier than necessary was stupid!
V.true jasmine
Modern Labor does treat candidates as just so many chess pieces on a board to be moved around at the whim of 2 or 3 powerbrokers.
Sometimes the chess pieces rebel. Radisich would appear to have been vindicated.
ESJ, you do realise Radisich was insisting on moving from her existing marginal seat to a new safe one?
I understand that was the case with Radisich William.
However the shirt lifting thing, accomodating Rita Saffioti, ministry etc suggests she was not one of the “loved ones”. In hindsight she was right to reject the offer.
ESJ
Good to see you bright eyed and bushy tailed this morning and no doubt dreaming of the imminent demise of every Labor government in the country by 2012 as you predicted last night.
With any luck you might even get the Republicans elected again in the US in a couple of months so the Iraq war can go on for another few years and millions of ordinary Americans can continue being denied proper health cover in the richest country in the world.
Ah it truly is the dawning of a great new era for the conservatives of the world.
Funnily enough Darn I am feeling very chipper this morning.
Will there be any counting taking place today William?
Nobody has to work on Sundays in WA any more Gary.
No Gary – maybe recounting, which will only change a couple of votes here and there.
i’ve been looking round on WA’s Electoral Commission website and can’t find any stats on how absent/late votes faired on primary count in 2005.
Its annoying. The AEC site gives that level of detail, and just about every close LIB seat in the last Federal election could see 0.5-1.5% pick up in 2PP as late votes are counted.
Is that a safe assumption in WA?
Still wondering what actually happed with the counts and the computers last night – it seemed completely fubar’d… anyone got any news?
Radisich’s old seat took in areas of both the new West Swan and the new Swan Hills, it wasn’t that surprising that she wanted to stick with the safe part of the area she’d represented for 8 years, it wasn’t like she wanted to be dropped in Morely from a lazy non-public life in Cottesloe.
Mr Squiggle, I’m don’t think that’s a safe assumption as that gain in postals/prepolls/absent votes may very well have had something to do with incumbency rather than the Liberal party.
Radisich’s old seat took in the entirety of the new Swan Hills, and a very small part of West Swan. Carpenter was absolutely right to insist she stand and fight, and if I was in the ALP I would bitterly resist any future attempt by her to return to politics.
before you jump all over me yes it was a relatively small area of the new West Swan seat…
*laughs* too slow – thanks for your take on that William I’ll not argue the toss.
(806)
Good to hear ESJ. We’ll do our best to keep you happy.
Peter Fisher,
Interesting- I hadn’t thought the difference between polling day votes and absent/postals was due to incumbency.
I thought its driven by the demographics of votes who are away from thier electorates – ie a bit more business oriented or more middle class enough to travel about, …somethng like that.
As long as there are no facts available, I won’t know what to think
Has anyone seen any WA-data on this?
I am pleased to say I predicted the Liberal victory in Mount Lawley!
Anyone know if the Greens preferenced Bill Stewart before Labor in Carine?
If so… if the preferences had a strong flow, Stewart will move to second and come close on ALP preferences?
Mr Squiggle – Here is what our Host says
“However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting.”
So I expect Liberals will improve in late counting.
I don’t blame Radisich for being angry in the last. Good local member, left to take very tough seat (again) while the Premier’s mate gets the plum pickings right next door. He should have tried to entice her to stay in Swan Hills by offering her a position in Cabinet; saying “tough luck” was pretty off in my book.
Where is this notional count for Morley, William?
All I can see at
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Morley/District_results.php
is first prefs.
William, why do you say that ALP looks like losing Wanneroo?
Latest notional distribution of preferences on AEC site says ALP win by 6 votes.
The simple fact of that matter is the voters of WA want a change of Government they wouldnt have swung so hard to the Libs/Nats if that wasnt the case, Carps speech was essentially a concession speech very morose and Colins was almost a victory speech. The people of WA have spoken and with postals and prepolls likely to favour the Libs they should be able to form a Minority Government.
Finally we Libs have won something!
Glen – it is Der Untergang!
Das ist richtig!
As others have mentioned looks like a rejection of major parties all round, the night of the independents and minor parties.
Oakeshoot in Lynne, perhaps a green in Mayo and no majority to either party in WA.
Both parties spinning the results, Swann saying Mayo and Lynne results mean a rejection of the cooaltion and Nelson whilst Hockey says WA means labor is on the nose everywhere.
And Glen you know the best part dont you? Some good old fashioned Perth style Royal Commissions will be heading Labor’s way next!! All funded by the taxpayer naturlich.
Dr Good (#824), I expect it’s because the tiny Labor lead is most likely to be overhauled on prepolls/postals.
Ja, so why Labor would want to give the Nats 700million thus destroying their credibility joining with a Right wing Party and then having to face the Gas Report and the CCC report is just crazy, the rotten fruit will be swept away. Barnett has essentially been handed power and he’ll do a good job in government, he’ll need to if he’s to hold onto government in the next 4 years.
If voters had wanted an ALP government they wouldn’t have delivered 10+ seats to the Tories.
The bumpkins will join the Tories they know that’s what their voters want, if they dont they’ll be smashed by independents or liberals in the next election. I can’t see Carps wanting to deal with the Nats.
Glen, Carps will do a deal with the Nats – power is its own reward.
Whether or not the Nats will do a deal with him is the question…
The Bizarre counting and preferences debacle continues…
The WAEC gives a notional 2pp (Labor/Liberal) as 7804/8327
Whilst the ABC has it at 8361/8195
What the! … The totals don’t even match!
That was for Morley by the way!
Peter that doesnt look likely given…
“Mr Barnett and Mr Grylls are expected to front the media later this morning.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96553
Not that I know anything about Western Australia and its government or Opposition…
But it seems to me Julie Bishop’s assertion that Labor is finished federally is drawing a longish bow.
Still in power in all but one states (and maybe still in WA if something silly happens), and leading in the polls federally by the consistently largest (and sustained) margin in the history of polling.
The Libs barely won back a safe seat, and the Nats lost another, by a country mile (as it were).
I guess Libs will be celebrating to a certain extent today, but if they think they can keep avoiding rejuvenating and reforming themselves, they’ll stay in the political wilderness for years to come.
Their attitude is like owners of a house for rent who are expecting to come back from their overseas trip fairly soon. Meanwhile the note to the tenants (on a short lease, of course) tells them: don’t change anything, don’t enact any new laws, or raise (or even change the mix of) new taxes. That room with the padlock… you’re not to go in there. No parties. No booze. Just mow the lawns and try not to break the chandelier. We’ll be back in six months.
Full marks to them trying, and I know it cheers them up as they survey the wasteland that is their political prospects, but they really do need to get a grasp on the new reality: one state election doth not a sea change make. They come from within.
For once i agree with you BB, this election was not fought on federal issues but bread and butter WA issues, health, education, law and order and honest government. Julie i think needs to just be happy the Tories won something.
“The simple fact of that matter is the voters of WA want a change of Government they wouldnt have swung so hard to the Libs/Nats if that wasnt the case”
Oh please! What a load of cobblers. The facts are that on current counting, 35.9% of voters voted Labor, around 38.6% of voters voted Liberal, 4.9% of voters voted National, 11.5% of voters voted Green and 9.1% of voters voted for minor parties or independents.
Another interesting fact is that on current counting, Liberal received an extra 2.9% of the vote. In addition Nationals received an extra 1.2% of the vote. 2.9% or 4.1% (if you include the Nationals) is hardly “the voters of WA”.
Peter any government that loses 10+ seats has got to go!
Especially considering how the results will end up, with prepoll and postals
The people have spoken Craps is finished just face the fact the ALP have lost, false hope is very bad for the soul!
So, if the last two instances of going early did not exactly work as per the plan, what do the results do for the probability of an earlyish fed DD?
Gag me with a spoon… is that the real Glen? Six months in rehab has done you the world of good.
Is it the general rule of Westminster govt, that the Sovereign makes an offer to the largest party first, to try to form a govt?
Or is it that if the lib/nats make a deal, then they are deemed to be the largest bloc?
Labor are the largest bloc atm, one imagines…
Of course BB, but look not once did the Fed issues come into it, Rudd and Nelson went briefly over there but kept their mouths shut.
The Federal Tories are still a shamozel, we barely won a blue ribbon seat (Mayo) and the Nats proved how useless they are by losing their last leaders dark green ribbon seat (Lyne).
A bad result for the Federal Conservatives, a Good result for State Conservatives.
The dynamics have changed and the new cycle is well and truly on IMHO.
Boerwar,
The NT and WA early elections were pure political expediency. In the case of a DD, it would be because the Government cannot get its legislation through the Senate and it would not occur until after a long campaign of complaint.
” any government that loses 10+ seats has got to go!”
Really? Haven’t heard of that rule. My understanding was that the party (or coalition of parties) that holds a majority (or majority support) in the lower house wins government.
There was a bit of discussion earlier about the WA Upper House structure. What geniuses in Labor and Greens found a system which allows voters in Agricultural and Mining/Pastoral to return 1 per 13-14,000 votes, South West 1 per 30,000 and the 3 metro regions 1 per 55,000 votes. Apart from ensuring a good crop of Nationals in Legislative Council and making it next to impossible for ALP and Greens to get a majority because of the even number of 6 in each area what did it achieve?
BB @ 834,
Agree, the Fed implications are minimal.
Having thought about it a bit more since last night, about all I can come up with is:
- Has some effect on Kevin’s “end the blame game” theme (probably just gives him a good excuse for not being able to do this)
- Might put Labor under a bit more pressure in the inner cities, vis a vis the Greens
- Might put Rudd off an early election.
Also it might have a bit of a rejuvenating effect on the Liberals’ morale, and give a slight impetus to their money-raising.
None of this is a big deal on the whole, and there’s no reason for Fed Libs to be breaking out the champers.
I agree with Peter about the largest party – with a caveat. If memory serves, the existing administration is given the first option to form a government, but if that is not possible the next largest party is approached.
A classic example is the February 1974 UK election which resulted in a hung parliament and where Labour emerged with 4 more seats than the Conservatives – yet Edward Heath spent a few days running around trying to stitch up a coalition with the Liberals before the Queen sent for Harold Wilson.
Maybe the ALP should go into opposition this time around, especially if a conservative government is likely to be as unstable as it’s looking (I don’t like the idea of fruit loop Woollard being the swing vote). I was very disappointed in Carpenter’s effort last night…when all was not lost and some fight was required, he just looked deflated and defeated and not even thinking of the possibilities.
Especially after the (predictably) shocking result in Lyne, and the (somewhat unexpectedly) shocking result in Mayo.
Smokin’ Joe Hockey is out and about, full of bluster, wagging his finger at the Rudd government and predicting the end is nigh.
This, after losing a long-time Coalition seat and revording the lowest vote for the Libs in Mayo in history.
Gotta hand it to Joe, he knows all about chutzpah, but not too much about adding up, if this morning’s was his considered opinion.
whats this about morley being lost now?
Two questions. Firstly, among those of you who have been following this election closely, what is the present state of the house in terms of seats definitely won and what is the (range of) likely final outcome(s)? Secondly, why is everyone subscribing to the school of thought that the ALP will not do well on preferences? I thought the convetional wisdom is that the party holding a seat tends to do better as they have more resources to arrange postals. Is there something peculiar about this poll? The redistribution shouldn’t matter if its still ALP territory
Some of the ALP types in here need to do a reality check
35% of WA voted for a Carpenter WA government
that is slightly above 1 in 3
WA has spoken and they are saying they do not want a government that is corrupt (Burke and ACCC), lazy (done nothing for 8 years despite hugh surplus, and winfall once in a lifetime revenue and arrogant.
Only 1 in 3 wants that
Apart from the
1. philosophical difference between National (Conservative) and Labor (Progressive)
2. the fact that most of National’s constituency voted Labor last in the election last night
3. National often had Labor/green last in senate election and htv cards
Why would Nat wants to join a corupt, lazy and arrogant government that 2 in 3 do not want
Unless Labor offer the world (Maybe the premier and vice premier) to the National, there is NO reason for Nat to support Labor
sorry, correction to my post (852) – meant to say not do well on POSTALS (rather than preferences)
Wakefield at 846
Labor has been trying to turn the Upper House into a one-vote one-value style upper house for years.
The current system is a compromise originally reached between Labor and the Nats in the 1980s and the new system is what the Greens wanted. They had this strange idea of the Upper House being equivalent to the Senate. I think Labor was happy with the regions, but wanted them weighted per population.
The misapportionment in the Upper House is quite extreme on paper, but strangely enough, the result is not as unrepresentative of the vote as would be expected.
The greens of course have come (I would assume) to realise that 6 is not the best outcome.
5 regions of 7 would have produced a better result – but that might have required changing the power of the President of the Council in the result of a deadlock.
853
and only 38%, slightly above 1 in 3, voted for the chair-sniffers…
add that to your ‘reality check’…
As another Chris, I’ll have a bash for you!
By my reckoning, Labor have won Armadale, Balcatta, Bassendean, Belmont, Cannington, Cockburn, Collie-Preston, Fremantle, Girrawheen, Gosnells, Joondalup, Kimberley, Mandurah, Maylands, Midland, Mindarie, Nollamara, North West, Perth, Pilbara, Rockingham, Victoria Park, Warnbro, West Swan and Willagee for a total of 25 definites.
The Liberals have won Bateman, Bunbury, Carine, Cottesloe, Darling Range, Dawesville, Eyre, Geraldton, Hillarys, Jandakot, Kalamunda, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Murray-Wellington, Nedlands, Ocean Reef, Scarborough, South Perth, Southern River, Swan Hills and Vasse for 21 definites.
The Nats have won Blackwood-Stirling, Central Wheatbelt, Moore and Wagin.
Liz Constable and Janet Woollard have won Churchlands and Alfred Cove as Independent Liberals.
John Bowler and Carol Adams have won Kalgoorlie and Kwinana as Independent Labors.
That means it’s currently 27-27 between left and right with Albany, Forrestfield, Morley, Riverton and Wanneroo as the five too close to calls. Wanneroo and Morley are probably gone for Labor (though I can’t find William’s notional figures anywhere), Albany looks the best for them, Tony McRae will be hoping that incumbency and a recount can help him, while it’s anyone’s guess in Forrestfield.
Probably the most likely outcome right now is ALP 27, Lib 24, Nat 4, Ind Lib 2 and Ind Lab 2. Extremely close finish.
WHY DOES EVERYONE KEEP CLAIMING THE LIBS HAVE WON THIS ELECTION?
Last time I checked to win elections you need at least 50% of the seats.
No one has won anything, in fact Labor according to ABC Election data is 1 seat ahead.
Thanks Talkon – that’s a lot easier to follow than the ABC computer for this election (no criticism of Antony and the ABC intended – its just one of those elections)
re 857
The media are making it out as such so if Labor scraped through they can try and whip up a huge backlash
Are nationals preferences favouring Labor in North West? Seems hard to otherwise explain Lib 25 + Nat 24 equalling a Labor win with a swing to it.
Unless there’s lots of pre-polls from Aboriginal communities and mining towns??
857, 859,
The Libs haven’t won, and, indeed, may not do so.
But considering the circumstances under which the election was called, it’s a crap result for Labor, even if they manage to hang on in a minority government.
According to 6PR Midday News, Barnett was trying ring Brendan Gryls – Gryls was not answering his phone.
I think that’s saying a lot
I am looking at North West as well, Who is the Ind preferencing? if it is the Nat, I think the Nats get in front of Liberal (Sweetman) and should win on Liberal preference
I do not think it is clear cut that Labor has won this
Can anyone tell me
Love the plenitude of opinion and paucity of facts from the conservative commenators. The fact is there was a 6% swing away from Labor and a 2.6% swing to the libs – that is not a ringing endorsement and it’s not a mandate to do anything at all. People may not want a Carpenter Govt but on current numbers I don’t think you can claim they want a Barnett govt either. This election just didn’t register with ordinary voters and they were not happy with either major party – you could see it if you were working on a polling booth instead of sitting in front of your computer waiting for results.
After the euphoria has died down on their side, and the low has lifted on the labor side, it’s going to be an interesting 4 years: most probable scenario, government by a recently unelectable, and still unrepresentative coalition (they are failing to represent 51% of west australians – their most senior female MP is a former party rat!) led by a lazy chubby silvertail who gave more effusive thanks in his victory speech to someone named ‘Narelle’ than to his wife who was standing beside him (Was I the only person who noticed that?? ‘Narelle kept me relaxed the whole time… perhaps too relaxed’… ), and an opposition enlivened by some new MP’s in safe seats from the ALP left.
Not much for Burke and D’Orazio to work with and lots of material for the ALP if they can keep their shit together.
LaborVoter
puhlease. ONLY a lobor voter would think they still had a chance!!
This doesn’t look over yet.
The ALP are in front in 28 seats, including slim leads in Wanneroo, Forrestfield, Collie, North West and Albany. Labor are only 32 votes behind in Riverton.
Throw in two Labor leaning independents in Kwinana and Kalgoorlie and the ALP get to 30 or 31 seats if Riverton improves
I spoke to Vince’s Campaign Manager (she’s my second Cousin) – North West is definatly Labor
Then how come Antony called it for Sweetman?
Interesting!!
Regardless of one’s politics this has to be seen as one of the more remarkable election results with a Government with a healthy majority a booming economy and an opposition that seemed completely disfuntional yet we have an election that is too close to call.
Can the Nations form a government with the ALP in short yes! and there are precentants for the National not backing a Liberal government ironically Victoria (birthplace of the Liberal Party) comes to mind
In 1935 the Nationals chose to not support a Liberal Government they instead formed a Government that lasted until the mid 1940s
It was for this reason that Sir Henry Bolte never trusted the Nationals.
People say that if the Nationals don’t support the Liberals they will be wiped out but this misses one key aspect, due to the fact the ALP would require the Nationals to pass any legisation the Nationals can claim to be the actual Government therefore they set the agenda.
Someone suggest rural communities don’t like the ALP! that is true but we should remember that all politics is local and as long as local issues are dealt with as the community expects and the National Party drags the ALP away from the sorts of ideas that upset conservative minded people then it can work.
People have written that such a parteship cannot work but again can I draw your attention that both major parties have major divides that for most part don’t stop the majors from governing.
For example what does a Higgins Liberal have in common with a Kalgoorlie Liberal or a Kingaroy National yet they can sit together under the Liberal/National banner and no one thinks twice.
Just as what does an inner city chardy drinking ALP person have in common with a Mining town ALP person, again no one thinks twice.
Sure logis says the Nats will join with the Liberals but there is no rule that says they must.
The main reason why the rural communities get up set with city based pollies from both sides is there communities have different Interest.
From my reading of the nmbers the ALP could be returned with a similar situation to that faced by Bracks who needed the support of three Independants
Those Indepenants held rural conservate seats
Savage (Mildura) lost his seat due to a toxic dump project he supported
Ingerman (Gippsland East) Still a popular MP and should hold his seat at the next election
Davies (Gippsland West) Lost her seat in part due to a major redistribution which moved her seat in the outer suburbs
The point is minority Governments are not uncommon and can work if the Government of the day wants it to work.
Having a Majority does not make you a good Government anymore than a minority Government is a bad Government
It seems to me that Mr Grylls is playing a smart political game, however in the end the vast majority of National voters, me included, require the removal of the labor government. If the Nationals negotiate with labor and labor remains in power then I will never again vote National and I would suggest there are many people out there would feel the same.
So….if the nationals join with labor then they have a very short life span and I do not think they will destroy their long term political future for short term policy gain. Even Mr Grylls is more intelligent than this.
However, this assumes Labor cannot form a minority government without the Nats….maybe they can…..anything is possible at this stage.
re post 856…. I think you are probably right max for labor would be 28
but 27 or less would be more likely
what happens if a lib held seats goes to the court of disputed returns?
Talkon @ 856
Personally, I’m expecting William to dip his lid given my prediction last week of
ALP 27
Lib 24
NP 4
Ind 4
867- Good post Mex
And lets not forget the current SA situation regarding a popular ALP/Nat partnership to the benefit of the state
BBD, there is a reason why there is only 1 Nat MP in SA!
They sold themselves out by backing the Left. How many other Nats hold regional seats in SA Federally or State wide than Maylands???
0
The Nats will form with the Liberals, the Nationals voters voted against Carpenter and would never forgive an unholy coalition with the ALP.
Colin just has to broker a deal/partnership with them for supply issues and no confidence votes. Then have Woollard as Speaker if she wins Alfred Cove.
Simple.
How on earth will WA voters stomach 4 years of a Corrupt ALP Govt propped up by the WA Nationals….they’ll be a bloody revolution there!
A few observations on WA, Lyne and Mayo:
The ALP achieved 41.9% primary vote in 2005 and was tracking at 41-42% primary vote all this year. The L/NP combined vote was stuck at a paltry 36.5% for 2008, but the moment the change of leader happened and the election was called, their primary vote jumped to 43.5%, stayed there for the campaign, and was the actual result last night. The ALP started the campaign at over 41% but crashed during the campaign to 37% and achieved just under 36% last night.
It looks to me that once the Liberal party replaced its leader with someone reasonably credible, they were always going to be competitive, and once the election was called early, Carpenter was going to have to convey a compelling reason for doing so, otherwise he would be seen as a rank opportunist, and would be punished accordingly. It seems he couldn’t convey a compelling reason and the drop off in the ALP’s primary vote was the result.
Now there are a whole range of opinions being pushed to spin the results around the nation last night to suit whomever is doing the talking.
The WA result had bugger all to do with Federal issues, it was a reaction to the change in leader and Carpenter’s opportunism. There is no start of a decline in federal Labor’s support, if anything, a L/NP Govt in WA will be more beneficial in the next Federal election for the ALP.
The Lyne result, is in part a rejection of the Nationals, but it didn’t go to the ALP, so it’s not as significant as some people believe.
The Mayo result, is also in part a rejection of the Libs, but without an ALP candidate, it was much easier for the voters to put the boot into the sitting party holder, without the risk of changing Govt’s, or in the belief of many, taking the seat away from the Libs. Yes, it was close, but they still won it.
The conclusions: only those in the political industry will read much into these results, but in truth, there’s not much to read. Except – voters don’t like being taken for granted and being taken for mugs, and all three elections last night were heavily influenced by those factors. The Nationals got a kick in Lyne and the Libs in Mayo for being lazy this year and also forcing the voters to return to the polls, and the ALP got a big boot in the coit for all the reasons stated above.
All three in my view, were entirely justifiable.
I repeat what William said in his blog at the top of this page:
“However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting.”
2005 was when Labor was relatively popular. This election their primary vote has fallen.
Labor will not make up ground, they will lose ground in counting to come.
Quick note from the Kimberleys (was there until Saturday) – the best slogan I have ever seen was for the Liberal candidate (who looks a bit like a cross between MichelleGrattan and Dame Edna)-… “Strewth – It’s Ruth” plastered all over the place. ROTFLMFAO.
Aristotle @ 876,
As good a summary of last night’s festivities as I have read anywhere!
Key theme: incumbents who stuff around are going to get kicked – hard.
Are Lib Losers in here still trying to claim you have won the election with less than 50% of the seats??
Hate to break it to you rabble, but you didn’t win anything. Whoever forms the next government looks to have their goolies in the hands of the independents.
It is still better for WA than having a Corrupt ALP administration in for another 4 years!
The ALP lost 10 seats, its over LV!
Get used to Premier Colin Barnett….
I should hope we’ll have a new Government by next week.
Aristotle
claps clap clap
LaborVoter
Labor form government then Yes – Progressive needing help from Conservative
Liberal No – the 2 Lib independants quit because of Sniffler, they like Barnett
Lib – Nat Partnership has survived Federally, in NSW, WA, Vic, NT and QLD
A conservative partnership would be seemless
Anyone know what happens to legislation, planning approvals and the like while we’re waiting for our new govt? Does it have to wait, or are ALP still considered to have authority for such things?
Perhaps LaborVoter is Carps in disguise!
Helen the Departments will carry on with the routine stuff until the new ministry is sworn in.
Helen 1t 884,
Legislation can only be made by Parliament, so any bills in Parliament that were in progress need to be re-introduced.
Planning approvals etc which do not require a minister can continue. The departments are in caretaker mode, but anything that is run of the mill can continue. Anything that requires a Minister is on hold during the campaign until the result is clear. The Ministers still have their commissions so they are the Ministers still.
886 steve – thanks Steve, but what does the outgoing mob do if they wanted that particular item signed off, knowing that the incoming mob didn’t want it?
It’s what you call tough bikies. Anything controversial waits for the new minister.
What about this scenario?
The Nats continue to say they will not form a coalition with either party and will not say how they intend to vote when there is a confidence vote.
So when Parliament gets recalled Labor are still the Govt. The Govenor must allow Labor to try to form a Govt. because they have the most seats.
This saga has weeks to run.
839
Glen Says:
September 7th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Peter any government that loses 10+ seats has got to go!
Especially considering how the results will end up, with prepoll and postals
So Glen me darlin’, does this mean your buddy Howie should have thrown in the towel in 1998, when he lost 18+ seats and the two party vote?
Oh wait… he was a Liberal… so that’s OK.
If things keep on playing out the way they are, WA can expect to be back to the polls soon
Carps will roll soon, Mr Wyatt will be the new Premier perhaps
Ben Wyatt- The Barrack Obama of WA politics- hahah it makes a catchy head line
ruawake, the story continues… Labor then loses in a no confidence motion, the rabble can’t bring themselves to sign an agreement and lose a no confidence vote and an election is called…
LaborVoter,
Hate to break it you, loser, Carps and your beloved Labor party got rolled big time last night.
There’s not much to salvage. An attocious primary vote, a looming corruption inquiry and an opposition which was well nigh unlectable four weeks prior has just left you guys out on your arse.
Have a nice four years!
A-C
If the Libs are as wonderful as suggest then we will have a nice four years wont we?
better hospitals, education, law and order and surely the boom wont slow?
“have a nice four years” makes it sound like you know the working classes are about to suffer or something? I have no clue as to where you would come up with an idea like that???
LaborVoter just got owned big time.
RE: ‘working class suffering’
Mate, Rudd’s doing most of the hard yards on that front.
A-c 898
great to see the blame game between states and federal have begun so soon
Typical Labor BBD, it all has to come down to class struggle doesn’t it?
Maybe that’s why you’ve been so rejected last night!
Enjoy the next few months indeed, a new Premier, Colin Barnett, the CCC report and the Gas Explosion report. Geee its getting nicer being a Liberal every day….
sorry Glen
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96553
900
Glen Says:
September 7th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Geee its getting nicer being a Liberal every day….
Don’t forget – John Howard lost government AND his seat! Was it good being a Liberal then?
Re: Glen 900
Well surely it couldn’t get much worse being a Lib when you were out on your rear everywhere down to Brisbane City?
Glen,
Did you get soft overseas? “CCC report and the Gas Explosion REport”?
How about:
1. Standing Royal Commission into the Building Industry
2. Royal Commission into the CFMEU and associated parties
3. Revised CCC legislation and criminal prosecutions
4. Investigation into Local Government activities
5. Gas Investigation
for starters?
There has been malfeasance which must be rooted out for the sake of the state?
dangle dangle dangle
How does those things make it nicer Glen?
I am trying to ask a question about the sore winner attitude of some bloggers (like you)
Why is there some undertone or implication by you Liberals that things will be made tough for Labor supporters i.e. working people?
That is the language of someone trying to maintain class struggle not dissolve it.
Dave as I said last night , the WA election was Labor’s Stalingrad. It ends with the fall of big daddy in December 2012 in Canberra.
Despite the obvious glee, the facts are that the Libs and Nats in WA are not the same as in NSW and Vic. They are an independant separate party with their own agenda, policies and priorities.
The WA Nats were supposed to be “wiped out” in this one vote – one value election, they were not. Why? Because they intentionally and vociferously let people know they were not just the “rural liberals”.
This is a lesson to the Nats federally – if you want to stop bleeding seats to independents and then eventually to the Libs you need to be different. Not just a de-facto arm of the Libs. How do you press this message home? Guess.
This result will kill any Federal merger of the two parties.
ESJ @ 907
I may not agree, but I love the analogy!
904
Edward StJohn – I have been overseas for 4 months…I’m getting into the swing of things slowly but surely.
BBD – why do you assume ‘working’ people will be worse off, and havent these people put the Libs within striking distance of victory, it would be foolish to make them worse off wouldnt it?
BBD – and if you’d like to experience sore winners, merely look at November 27th 2007, granted it was 11 years since they’d been in power but still they were not being gracious winners at all.
Sean, if Carps does that the ALP will be wiped out in future elections in WA. For Labor to form a Government based on Labor Independents (Bowler) who lost his job because of corruption and Brian Burke would be idiotic.
BBD @ 906,
It’s only the Labor supporters who are claiming that a Barnett Govt will make things worse for working people.
And your talk about “sore winners” is a joke, surely? If you want to see someone who’s sore, look at LaborVoter – what an angry little bear he/she is today!
Note of caution though – this election hasn’t actually been conclusively decided yet. Still plenty of counting to come, and horse-trading! I agree with ruawake and others – could be weeks of manoeuvring left!
If I hear one more person say the ALP cares about the workers I’m going to puke!
K.Rudd has admitted people are worst off than they were a year ago! so far the federal ALP have done nothing to write home about.
I’m sorry to Willam but having been around politics for twenty years I have to laugh when ALP people start talking about the workers!
The ALP sold them out many moons ago, today you are simplly a Political Party just the same as the Liberals, Nationals, Family First, Greens etc.
If the ALP were so good why did ACOSS say on radio last night that WA had the same number of Public Housing properties that it had 10 years ago! so much for the ALP’s concern about Housing.
Please drop your class crap
Well Glen
I behaved that night and agreed with you, ESJ and Tabitha etc when you were all complaining about peoples attitudes and i agreed
now you are being a hypocrit
seccondly it was pro uranium greens that got you this close have some fun with them why dont ya?
On another note, congratulations to Julie Bishop on winning the award for “most smug person on the planet,” after her constant whinging. Further, now claiming that whatever narrow margin the ALP end up losing by in WA, this is all bad news for Rudd and he must go!!
PLEASE JULIE!
Note that the former holder of the award, Peter Costello, has been strangely quiet recently.
Is this “royalties for regions” another version of Vaille’s Regional Rorts program.
Nationals considering leaving Liberal coalition after Lyne vote
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24307511-5006301,00.html
Carpenter talking to Grylls:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24307692-948,00.html
Julie Bishop is extremely amusing with her delusins of adequacy. I loved it when she claimed that Carps lost government because of the distillate tax (yeah I don’t know what it is either) that Rudd wanted to apply.
Hordes of little old ladies flooding into the polling booths against it…
LOL. keep her on. She’s great entertainment value.
Well, I got the lower house guesses pathetically wrong in my tips. I couldn’t even get North West right… I thought Sweetman would get up. Maybe I was right about Mick Murray though.
I did, however, reckon the Nats could get two seats in Agricultural, and it looks like they have indeed – outpolled the Libs ‘n’ all. And did anybody at all tip Robin Chapple getting back in for M&P?
Here are the ABC LC results, what they reckon anyway:
East Met: Lib 3 / ALP 2 / Grn 1. Carrn Alison Xamon… at least somebody I voted for got up.
North Met: Doesn’t say yet, but surely Giz Watson got back in with that big swing to the Greens, so 3/2/1 result there too – who got 3? I dunno.
South Met: Lib 3 / ALP 3.
Agricultural: Nat 2 / Lib 2 / ALP 1 / CDP 1.
Mining and Pastoral: Nat 2 / ALP 2 / Lib 1 / Grn 1.
South West: Lib 3 / ALP 2 / Nat 1. No Sullivan, then, and Paul Llewllyn goes bye byes.
So, total: Lib 14 (15?) / ALP 13 (12?) / Nat 5 / Grn 3 / CDP 1. The Nats and Greens have both done well; Libs and Nats have >18 seats, so the CDP won’t have the balance.
the liberal party -best friend the workers ever had J howard (just before introducing worstchoices)
worstchoices- a chance to earn a minimum wage whilst keeping maximum dignity
(p costello -hr nichols speech)
worstchoices-institutionalised serfdom perpetuated by law designed to entrench permanently the boss(master) worker(slave) status-(the australian public 27 NOVEMBER 2007)
Does anyone know what has happened to the 425 missing votes in Morley?
Total Valid Votes…..16556
But on WAEC it has the total votes after distribution…..16131
ABC has it as 16556
That leaves 425 votes that have disappeared?
Also, if Warren Truss can’t see exactly what he needs to do, he’s a fool. The NSW Nats are the right hand of the Liberals, and got pwned in Lyne; the WA Nats are their own people, and have got their best result since 1996 – they’re actually where they were before One Nation came along.
I wonder what Lawrence Springborg’s thinking right now?
Gusface! yes that is why we threw them out! as of yet the ALP have not radically changed the IR laws, infact the Business community seems closer to this Government than the previous one which in itself is a good think considering the currant globel climate.
Antony Green has put up a blog comment on the ABC website http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/09/updating-wester.html#more
I note he says
“However, the two-candidate preferred totals do not include preference counts for the postal and pre-poll votes, which already means the preference count on the WAEC site is starting to be misleading.
There are also incomplete totals which are clouding analysis. In both North West and Wanneroo, the preference count show Labor leading, but if you look closely, the preference count clearly does not include a preference count for every booth.”
Did I read correctly – National preferences flowing strongly to Labor? Well I guess that blows the theory that Nat voters put Labor last.
It all comes down, to Riverton, Forrestfield, Albany, Morely, Wanneroo….with postals and prepolls, id say at best Riverton (ahead), Wanneroo (ahead), possibly Morely and Forrestfield i dont know about Albany (probably ALP win) but if Labor cop it in those 3/4 seats they are done like a Turkey.
Everything has to fall Labors way to hold onto power.
Still the result is still undecided.
It looked as though Antony was not enjoying his night given the WAEC’s poor performance so who can blame him.
A message has been sent to all parties. Take the electorate for granted and you will be punished. I don’t see that the liberal vote was anything special either.
It is this dumb system of preferential voting where the highest two get everyone elses votes distributed to them – talk about a mixed up, unrepresentative system.
A proportional voting system would give a sounder result for the lower house. Course you would get more independants and a broader balance of power and therefore by definition a better democracy so of course the power brokers wont be suggesting this anytime soon.
We can but dream………..
I wonder how our Liberal friends will react when Brendan Grylls & Alan Carpenter appear at a joint News Conference announcing an alliance to form Government ?
The look on their faces will be priceless
BoP@919
Hmmm, Libs & Nats with 19 LC seats…if Barnett is Premier will he have a go at electoral reform? Will they try and reintroduce the old province system in the LC and increase the number of regional lower house MP’s? Or will they leave it well alone and consider themselves lucky to have an improved version of the old system?
KPD – I lived through the time in NSW when the independents held the balance of power. It was a state of paralysis and if memory serves me, most of the independents including Dawn Fraser were chucked out at the next election.
The only people who prefer proportional voting are those who benefit (eg. Greens)
928
Frank Calabrese – If you’ve read the news reports Grylls has said he wont make up his mind until he has met BOTH major party leaders.
Ahhh false hope is hilarious to watch Frank, your posts will be priceless next week.
MB
perhaps a peruse of hansard might bring you up to speed on current ir matters,
BTW also I note the chance of a boilover seems to cooling say what!
I think ESJ mentioned an echo or somesuch last night-very prescient but a tad self directed methinks-hope his foot is ok
Steve Annabelle
It was only a time of paralysis because you the independents couldn’t make a decision!
Countries with this system, such as Germany and New Zealand (who used to have first past the post until about 10 years ago) seem to be vibrant forward looking democracies.
No reason why we cant either.
927 kpd
Makes an interesting point for while I support the current system if I think back to the Governments of 100+ years ago, we had several very good Governments and several really good Politicians.
Interestingly many Governments were not so partisan, sure there were clashes between Liberals, Radicals, Progressive, Conservates, Free Traders & Protectionist and while there was no shortage of corruption and pork but generally the Governents were good governments.
Aug 11th 2008
“The Liberal Leader Colin Barnett has cancelled a meeting with Nationals’ Brendon Grylls, saying he will not particpate in a Nationals ’stunt’.”
Ooops
There is no requirement for the Governor to allow the party with most seats to try to form a government. On the other hand, the initiative doesn’t lie with the Governor. Theoretically he has the power to act first and dismiss the Premier, but that isn’t going to happen. In practice, the initiative lies with the Premier. If he thinks his government still has a chance, he can meet Parliament and let events there determine what happens next. Otherwise, he can tender his resignation to the Governor, in which case the usual (although not the mandatory) thing would be for him to tender formal advice at the same time about who should be commissioned to replace him. It is most unlikely that people will wait until Parliament meets to negotiate and to declare their positions, so it is also most unlikely that the situation will need to wait until Parliament meets to be resolved. Once upon a time waiting to meet Parliament was a real part of the process, but in modern conditions it is virtually certain to be only a formality, and a formality which in normal circumstances it looks bad to insist on going through–although it can make sense as a tactic in unusual circumstances, as in South Australia in 1968.
ruawake, why would Grylls back an ALP whose One Vote One Value legislation was aimed at destroying them?
runawake- you are a trouble maker
Gusface. I’m aware that the Government has made some changes to the IR laws but generally they have kepted some parts of workchoices!
Further to previous post the recent moves by Telstra at first appeared to have had the support of the Government! the Minister was somewhat vague in her response to Telstra’s moves to exclude Unions from wage negotations.
Also if Antony is right than the results in North West and Wanneroo are not concrete in other words all this talk of the ALP winning North West is bunkum.
why would anyone who has the ability to speak lucidly and intelligantly wish a union official to speak for them? surely the result is a lowering of the potential benefit/outcome due to the union wishing everyone to be on one level? This may be good for the union but it is a very poor result for the working man who could negotiate a better result.
scrutineer numbers from ALP say NW is an ALP win Glen
that was to Mex’s post
Yes from the ALP, that is not credible im afraid. Especially if there has been problems with delivering preferences.
and confirmed via a phone call to vince’s Campaign Manager as per my post earlier.
This was settled at the last Federal election with the defeat of Howard and the hated Workchoices.
You may not understand that, but it is true nevertheless. Get over it. Your side lost the argument.
kpd- what planet do you live on?
A telstra worker would do better one on one with Telstra than being part of a Union campaign?
Why then doesnt Barnet run as an independant instead of being part of the organised conservative movement (if movement could describe what the Libs do?)
Get a grip
Kpd! you make an excellant point my experiance is some Unions do nothing for workers but the point is the ALP makes out it and the Unions are the workers friends
Put yourselves in Grylls’ shoes, he want the Nats to have a different “Brand” (Hate that term).
Memerelda comes out and says basically “The Nats will form a Coalition with the Libs”. Grylls says hold your horses Ms Mesmer, how do you like these apples?
How do you change the perception that the Nats are really closet Libs?
Its not rocket science.
Mex
Both organisations are democratic so if members dont like it they have a right to fight it
I dont tell you and KPD how to run your masonic lodge or where to stay on your mens group trips to Thailand do I?
Further to previous point! All Politicians want one thing and that is to be elected. no party can claim to be perfect and no party can claim to soley represent a certain section of voters, yes there are certain types that vote one way while ohers vote the other but most of the work done by Government is done by the Public Servants not the Pollies! they debate and tick off on things and set the agenda but it is the Public Servants who do the actual work
Heres one for the forum to decide.
Julie Bishop said late last night that a great part of the election success for the State Liberal Party should be attributed to the TV advert asking ‘ 3 things the Labor Government has done …………. followed by silence’ etc. etc.
To this train of thought I totally disagree, and for the record I actually voiced my disgust and disagreement with the advert in question to Liberal Party Campaign Headquarters – when it was running in coincidentally the darkest week of the election campaign for the Liberals.
I told them to change the advert in question or get rid of it altogether as it was not a winning advert in any shape or form – in my opinion based on over 20 years media and marketing experience.
As it turned out, the election advertising and marketing was changed soon thereafter, and in my opinion was much, much better and to the point leading up to a very strong last week of the campaign, and ultimately the resounding success achieved by the Liberal Party in the polling booths yesterday.
How did everyone else feel about ‘that’ advert in question etc. and the consequent ‘improved’ marketing in the last week?
Wayne Thompson (Independent) for Carine
BBD,
Is the WA CFMEU democratic?
951
Big Blind Dave Says:
September 7th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Mex
Both organisations are democratic so if members dont like it they have a right to fight it
I dont tell you and KPD how to run your masonic lodge or where to stay on your mens group trips to Thailand do I?
———————————————–
I have a Masonic Lodge, now that is a secret I didn’t even know.
Thailand!! Interesting trip that one lmao
954
yes it is ESJ
It’s just that anyone disatisfied has resigned rather than wait for the election cycle
you dont really get away with that in WA election terms do you?
Wayne
Were you really an independant? Why would you advise the Libs to change their advertising?
Good job getting the 246 votes though, do you think you will beat the FF candidate?
BBD,
If unions are democratic how come they have declining membership yet always win re-election with 20% of eligible members voting.
Unions are democratic. my first point was in response to those who started raising the old chesnut about the ALP caring for the working class.
ESJ! The Liberal Party has a rather closed pre-selection process which is less democratic than the ALP’s pre-selection process
At least the ALP list on their website the location of their branches as do the Greens I note the Liberals are still scare of anyone knowing where there branches are.
958- ESJ
first of all ESJ, we have discussed this before- not all unions are in decline that is your spin
seccondly, no one is excluded from voting
thirdly, union leaders do on occassion get voted out
lastly, how many members does the Lib party have in Oz and how many union members are there?
The Australian Nurses Union (ANF) have a very healthy membership but that might be that they are a good Union.
healthy mebership….nurses union,….nice one
But the WA branch have disendorsed from Unions WA and it’s secretary signed a pact with The Libs during the 2005 campaign.
ruawake,
‘Wayne
Were you really an independant? Why would you advise the Libs to change their advertising?
Good job getting the 246 votes though, do you think you will beat the FF candidate?’
Yes, absolutely. My whole aim and reason for nominating in this election was to help get rid of the Labor Government and as advertising and marketing is my forte
I was hell bent on making sure the Liberals didn’t blow or waste any opportunity.
Yes, I was quite pleased with the overall result. I’d like to think that I’ll stay in front of FF. The experience of it all was quite beneficial and the end result will take care of itself in the ensuing days, I’m sure.
Cheers
new thread everybody
ITo Frank!
I was referring to the Victorian Branch of the ANF. I had forgotten about the WA ANF it will be Interesting what happens with that Union now that WA has this result
Oh BBD happy to concede the Liberal party is undemocratic doesnt change the point about unions.
Union leaders do on occassion get voted out – yes once in a blue moon, more likely to end up in an upper house somewhere.
WT – yes Carps is finished if that was your objective, its just a matter of someone administering the head shot. Being the ALP he’ll have the consolation of one of his own doing the deed.
Wow… this thread has seen some action! Seems all the Lib fans have finally come out of their hibernation after the Feds loss last year. Even Glen’s back! Boy the Libs would want to make sure they actually win this one now or there’ll be some slashed wrists around here hahaha
Mexican Beemer (870),
I am pretty sure that Russell Savage opposed the toxic dump, though it was used against him because he helped put Labor in Government in 1999.
MB you will recall the WA ANF backed Workchoices.
Wayne
You are a bit of a fibber then arn’t you?
“When there are no party’s left fit to vote for, its time to stand up and say “Enough is Enough”, and I’ll throw my own hat in the ring. Yes, as an Independent who will listen and act according to a community’s concerns, expectations and ideals, and that time is now! ”
Thank you Chris on Election night Savage suggested he had been unfairly represented during the campaign but my point was the toxic dump cost him his seat which is a petty for he seemed a good polly.
Mexican Beemer (913)
As long as we have a party which is dedicated to inflicting workchoices on ordinary working Australians, “class crap” will continue to be an issue in this country.
It cost Howard and the Liberals dearly in 2007 and unfortunately for ESJ it will also make his dream of a Rudd defeat by 2012 just that – a dream.
Unfortunately I have to agree with you that some Labor governments have not done as much for working people as they could have, but after the Howard experience, most Australian workers now know which party is the best bet for them.
966 Wayne – was Carine really under threat from an ALP candidate? If you expertise is really in advertising and marketing, why didn’t you apply your skills and resources to support Bill Stewart, who has a track record of working with the community and lives there, unless the Croation tax accountant?
Mexican Beemer,
I thought well of Russell Savage too, but politics is a brutal business. Labor was foolish to try to bring in a proposal that ended up costing him his seat and giving one more to the Nationals.
ruawake,
Not at all, that is I felt ……… and still do!
The bottom line for me though was the McGinty factor ……… I couldn’t have put up with him in control for another 4 years (’Don’t get me started on him’).
In reality if I couldn’t win, the Liberals were my next choice – my preferences clearly stated that. Next time around, I may well sign up to ‘a’ party but a few backyards will need to be cleaned right up before then, so we’ll see what transpires going forward.
cheers
Fair enough Wayne, but your words say more than you think.
“When there are no party’s (sic) left fit to vote for…” Yet you advise the Libs on their election campaign and give them your preferences.
Ho Hum.
Helen,
I had discussions with Bill and quite obviously he had a different agenda for different reasons than mine. I saw him yesterday and congratulated him on his campaign – it really was quite impressive and I felt somewhat underwhelmed as a result. Though Carine was never really under threat from the Labor Party, the sitting member had resigned and one never really knows the possibilities that may or may not eventuate as a result. I was in a position to nominate and felt good about it for a first time ‘life’ experience – and once nominated there is no turning back. I too live local – but I’m not interested in playing the racial card.
The bottom line of this electorate election in my opinion is as follows:
The Labor candidate or Party did virtually nothing to win or improve the parties chances.
The Greens candidate or Party did virtually nothing to win or improve the parties chances.
The Christian Democrats candidate or Party did virtually nothing to win or improve the parties chances.
The Family First candidate or Party did virtually nothing to win or improve the parties chances.
Bill Stewart ran a very prominent, aggressive campaign and polled very well.
I ran a very policy-aggressive campaign with limited resources and little help.
The Liberal candidate Tony Krstevic ran a saturation high-prominence campaign, worked hard and recieved a glowing endorsement and mandate at the ballot box
Wayne, I agree with your assessment of the “3 things” advertisement.
I am a strong Liberal (with the sunburn from yesterday to prove it) and I can think of much more than three good things the ALP has done.
The advert was made worse by the fact the ALP sent their ‘electorate acheivement’ maps around the same time the ad started to air. It could have been better if it was 3 things Labor has done to improve our hospitals… and another for law and order – etcetera..
On a different note… On the polling booth I had a few people complaining about the amount of addressed mail they received during the campaign. Given the score Frank has been keeping in Swan Hills – I wonder if too much mail is now a negative?
ruawake,
‘Yet you advise the Libs on their election campaign’
Not in any official capacity though – that being the difference.
Cheers
Joe,
I tend to agree. Classic from the polling booth yesterday as follows:
“Anything electoral in the letter box I throw out …….. now, …. who do I vote for?”
The waste must be enormous. I think the time has come to limit the amount of placards, helpers, posters, banners etc. etc. both in size and number for all parties and independents at polling booths. It’s getting way too much and out of hand.
I reckon the voting public quite rightly gets intimidated by the great ‘walk of concience’ into the actual polling booth.
962
BBD
Sorry, been away. BBD this is the whole point. The Libs and the ALP only have a limited membership as do the unions. Problem being that the whole state gets to vote for the Libs or ALP even though we may not be members of either clan.
With the unions, only members get to vote BUT unfortunately ALL working people have to put up with their bu##sh## antics and they CLAIM they have the right to negotiate for ALL the working class.
What a crock. It is you my friend who needs to get a grip………. or have you already?
Two thoughts, which may have been raised elsewhere in this string, if so, sorry, I can’t keep up with the string. Work to do.
1. If the libnats have a majority of one, won’t they have to provide the speaker? And if a vote is tied, is there some sort of rule which says the speaker has to vote one way or another?
2. How about the proposition that it would be very smart politics for the nats to support labour? They would have a valid reason: the labs have the most seats. It would also ensure that the libs would never again take them for granted. Also, while it might lose them a few torynat voters, it won’t lose them many – they have nowhere else to go. Plus they will enjoy all the moolah the nats will extort from lab.
Not sure that it would be smart politics for lab to jump into bed with the nats, but power is a powerful drug.
ALP-Nat coalition… heaven forbid… ALP selling its soul to the agrarian socialists! The irony would be that the so-called royalties for regions could be spent shoring up ALP vote in Kalgoorlie, Northwest, Pilbara, Kimberley and Albany as well as throwing a sh*tload at Collie-Preston in a bid to regain the seat next time…
Also use it to target Eyre (with a view to a Nat win next time) and keeping Nats happy in Moore…
Such a coalition would have back at the hustings quicker than a Lib-Nat coalition
Is this Mr Grylls doing Mr Bean impersonations?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/07/2357669.htm
980 Wayne Thompson “I’m not interested in playing the racial card” – nor am I, I referred to the Liberal candidate that way because I don’t know his name. Primarily, I object to these candidates placed in electorates where they are not known, where they have never lived, and where they have no history of being involved in helping the community. Of course, this applies to many Perth electorates, where there are worthwhile applicants for political roles who do not fit in with the ALP/Liberal puppeteers. These well-paid politicians are meant to serve their community – what do you think your new representative will do for the Carine electorate?
By the way, what were your areas of concern and policies?
Helen, re what will Tony Krstevic do for the ‘Carine’ community – I guess we’ll be able to answer your question in 4 years time, as is his due.
Would be nice to see him do some good work in collabaration with Bill at Council level re underground power etc.
As also requested my Policy Platform F.Y.I. as follows:
‘Mandatory Sentencing
If elected, one of my main priorities will be to introduce a private member’s bill into Parliament to take the sentencing powers (for serious and life-threatening/taking crimes) away from Judges, and implement an immediate Mandatory sentence regime where a crime such as Manslaughter will once again attract a set, and suitable punishment/term of imprisonment. Mandatory sentencing for attacks on Public Officers must also be introduced.
If the jails are full, then other facilities need to be opened up and used to house lower-risk prisoners. Serious Crime MUST attract serious time – or the very fabric of respect for law and order will be lost on society, and there is no turning back when that becomes a reality.
Free Public Transport for Pensioners 24/7
Daylight Saving
Until voted otherwise by the public of W.A., the referendum result should rule the day. We are a Democracy and, as such, we should respect and honour the majority vote.
Extended Trading Hours (including Sunday Trading)
Having been involved in Small Business since 1995, I have always held the belief that the Business Owner or Proprietor should have the right to decide. Relaxing the trading time rules and restrictions would obviously suit some businesses more than others, some staff more than others and some customers more than others. So while a decision either way could have serious implications for some or all businesses, I strongly feel that as long as that right is retained and protected, I would not resist any motions to change the existing regulations.
Ban portable Multa-nova use in metropolitan area
Another main priority would be to introduce a private members bill banning the use of all portable multa-nova cameras in the immediate metropolitan area. The bill would dictate that the portable multa-nova cameras could only be used on outer country roads – specifically in known and proven ‘death trap’ locations where the legitimate use of the Cameras could be justified. The bill would dictate that more police would be patrolling the roads, with a far greater focus on driver education.
In tandem with introducing the Bill banning the use of portable Multa-Nova Cameras in and around the immediate metropolitan area, I will be recommending and lobbying support for the immediate shut-down and closure of the Road Safety Council. The Council has consistently failed in its designated agenda to reduce trauma and deaths on our roads. The ‘Towards Zero’ report just presented to the Government outlines plans for the State’s 12-year Road Safety strategy ahead, and involves spending an EXTRA $2.3 billion dollars moving forward. The document’s assertions and estimates cannot be backed up or believed based on previous failures and non-performing campaigns – and therefore the Council should be scrapped in its entirety. The money already allocated plus the recommended funding moving forward should be incorporated into providing more police on the roads, and more police on the beat. This State already suffers from an unacceptable ‘Road Rage’ culture, ever present on our roads – and this has been borne out by the failures of previous Road Safety campaigns over the last decade.
Having more Police on the road would once again put them in a position to punish bad driving on the spot, and educate errant drivers – our roads would be that much safer as a direct result. Multa-novas when used by stealth have been proven to do nothing, other than raise copious amounts of money for the State Treasury. However, I am in favour of fixed cameras being utilized 24/7 on our Freeways and Highways and in the Polly Farmer Tunnel. When they are fixed, and you know they are there, they will serve their purpose (for all the right reasons) and people will tend to drive more appropriately – or continue to pay the consequences accordingly. More portable Multa-Nova cameras are not the serious solution – they have simply become a scourge on society as a handful of warts that won’t go away and the secret is well and truly out.’
it’s all over… the libs have done a deal with grylls…
What what? More info please…
that’s all i’ve got… got a txt from an alp staffer mate (cleaning out
his desk at the time…lol…) claiming the nats have done a deal with
the tories…
Ahh. There’s a link in the other thread (from the West) saying Grylls won’t make a decision either way until Sunday, when the votes are in.