Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Western Australian election live

9.07am. There is now a notional count for Morley on the WAEC site (don’t ask me where it went last night), and it looks clear the Liberals have in fact won. So Labor needs to win Riverton, Forrestfield and Albany, and is not looking the goods in the former.

2.25am. Revised final call for the evening. The ABC gives the Liberals eight definite gains from Labor: Bunbury, Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Southern River and Swan Hills. However, I think Wanneroo can probably be added to the list. They also have their nose in front in Riverton and are very likely to pull further ahead in late counting, and a good chance of reining in Labor’s 166-vote lead in Morley and 242-vote lead in Forrestfield. However, Labor is 117 votes ahead in the notional Liberal seat of Albany, and the Liberals have lost Kalgoorlie to an independent likely to back Labor. If Labor can win three out of Riverton, Morley, Forrestfield and Albany, there might yet be a minority Labor government. However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting. Kwinana appears to have fallen to independent Carol Adams, so any Labor government would be hanging on for dear life with the support of two independents.

1.53am. Hmm – and we’ve also got North West as “Labor win” now. Would like a clearer idea of what’s happened here – possibly an unexpected Nationals preference flow. The WAEC site says 4729 to 3985, which is unequivocal. There might be life yet in this game.

1.16am. ABC computer has moved Wanneroo from Liberal “gain” to “ahead”. Labor in fact leads by six votes, but extrapolating the pattern of late voting from last time puts the Liberals 0.6 per cent ahead.

11.59pm. An intriguing development in Morley, which has gone from Liberal win to “ALP ahead” on the ABC computer, presumably involving official preference figures (the WAEC doesn’t have such a thing on its site as the original D’Orazio-versus-Labor count was junked). If Labor does win Morley, a majority for Labor plus Labor independents becomes mathematically possible again, requiring wins in Riverton (Labor trails by 32 votes), Forrestfield (leads by 242 votes) and Collie-Preston (leads by 416 votes). However, Labor tends not to do very well in late counting.

10.48pm. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.

10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.

10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.

10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.

10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.

10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.

10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.

10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.

10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.

10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.

9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.

9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.

9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.

9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.

9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.

9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.

9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?

9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.

9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.

9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.

9.17pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.

9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.

9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.

9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.

9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.

9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.

9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.

9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.

8.59pm. Regarding Fremantle: The gap between the Liberals and Greens is getting very wide though.

8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.

8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.

8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.

8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.

8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.

8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.

8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.

8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor. ABC has given Kwinana back to Labor, formerly given to independent Carol Adams.

8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.

8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.

8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.

8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.

8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.

8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.

8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.

8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Have added what I posted there below.

8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.

8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.

Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley

Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West, Wanneroo.

Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.

Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.

Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.

8.25pm. I’ve taken it over to Larvatus Prodeo.

8.13pm. Labor still ahead in Collie-Preston, just barely, with almost all booths counted.

8.10pm. ABC calling Joondalup for Labor, but I wouldn’t stake the bank on that yet.

8.08pm. Forrestfield “in trouble”, Steven Smith almost calling it.

8.06pm. Contest narrowing in Wanneroo …

8.06pm. But Matt Birney’s critique of The West up in lights.

8.05pm. Regarding the outages, I’ve just written to Larvatus Prodeo to see if I can do my live blog there, so keep an eye out there if I go down here for the long-term.

8.04pm. Matt Birney not sounding certain though.

8.01pm. Swing showing to Labor in Scarborough – probably an anomaly or an error.

8.00pm. Liberal also ahead in Forrestfield.

7.53pm. Labor out of the woods in Kimberley.

7.52pm. Now also chat of poor Greens preference flow, which if accurate means even bigger trouble.

7.48pm. Definite losses: Bunbury, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range. Big trouble: Wanneroo, Swan Hills, North West (though Swan Hills down from “LIB WIN” to “LIB AHEAD”). Possibly Labor gain in Albany, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nothing lately from Kalgoorlie.

7.46pm. So Mount Lawley gone. Smith seems to think Labor need to win all of Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup, Riverton, Collie-Preston, and at least one of those seems unlikely. Swan Hills, North West gone … you’d almost start thinking about calling it.

7.45pm. News flash – early double digit swing in Wanneroo, computer calls it for Liberal.

7.44pm. No, Labor now ahead in Collie-Preston. The moral of the story is that these early ABC calls are probably less reliable than normal due to the redistribution and perhaps the high non-major party vote.

7.42pm. ABC calls Ocean Reef and Collie-Preston for Liberal.

7.40pm. I’m back … Labor appear to be conceding Mount Lawley, but they’re holding on in Riverton and might even win Albany, although I wouldn’t be sure about the latter – this will be the rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths could still lose it for them.

7.35pm. Labor back ahead in Riverton.

7.32pm. Bad news continues to accumulate for Labor – Liberal now ahead in Riverton.

7.31pm. Liberal now ahead in Alfred Cove.

7.29pm. It’s calling Cannington for Liberal is well. Labor had better hope that there are a lot of anomalies coming through at the moment.

7.28pm. ABC calls Mount Lawley for Liberal with double digit swing.

7.27pm. ABC calls Pilbara for Liberal, which means it’s all over if so. I wouldn’t call that seat quite yet, but a number of bad results are accumulating for Labor.

7.25pm. Stephen Smith suggests trouble in North West as well. I believe what he just said about Riverton is out of date now, i.e. a new booth has been better for them.

7.24pm. One piece of good news for Labor: swing in Riverton a manageable 0.6 per cent with 8.9 per cent counted.

7.24pm. ABC computer has Liberals ahead in Kimberley with 7.9 per cent swing, 5.3 per cent counted.

7.18pm. Very ugly swing against Labor in Cannington also.

7.18pm. Third news flash: Also calls Southern River for Liberal. Huge trouble for Labor if this keeps up.

7.17pm. Another news flash: ABC calls Jandakot for Liberal, 10 per cent swing from 6.6 per cent. Big shock.

7.14pm. News flash: ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal. I wouldn’t quite call it yet: 6.6 per cent swing from 5.9 per cent counted not good for Labor though.

7.13pm. ABC calls Morley for Labor, but its judgements can be awry when independents are involved. John D’Orazio not looking in the hunt.

7.16pm. ABC calls Scarborough for Liberal, 3.9 per cent swing from 18.8 per cent counted.

7.13pm. I speak too soon – now “LIB AHEAD” by 0.4 per cent, 25.7 per cent counted.

7.12pm. Labor still highly competitive in Collie-Preston with 22.6 per cent counted.

7.10pm. ABC computer has “ALP AHEAD” in Albany, but only 5.2 counted.

7.09pm. First two Nedlands booths encouraging for Sue Walker.

7.09pm. First booth from Swan Hills, Gidgegannup Town Hall, gives Labor a dangerous 7.1 per cent Liberal swing.

7.08pm ABC computer calls Kalamunda for Liberals.

7.06pm. Labor might be a little troubled by 5.5 per cent swing from 5.5 per cent counted in Girrawheen, if it proves typical for the northern suburbs.

7.04pm. Labor doing a little better than I had expected in the first rural booths from Collie-Preston.

7.03pm. ABC computer calls Bunbury for Liberal – 9.5 per cent swing from 6.3 per cent counted.

6.58pm. Early Alfred Cove results show Janet Woollard might struggle to get ahead of Labor – down to Greens preferences. This from the Labor-voting end of the electorate though.

6.51pm. Two good early booths in for Labor from West Swan, maybe boding well for them in Swan Hills.

6.50pm. Julie Bishop reading too much into early Morley figures.

6.49pm. Very strong performance from Bowler also on early pre-poll votes.

6.47pm. Very encouraging first booth for John Bowler in Kalgoorlie – Kalgoorlie District Education Office, 434 votes.

6.42pm. Only 289 votes, but the Lower Kalgan Hall booth in Albany has swung heavily to Labor.

6.29pm. “Early Votes (In Person)” starting to appear – pre-polls, in other words.

6.28pm. Very first rural booths show encouraging signs for the Nationals.

6.00pm. Welcome everybody. Polling booths are now closed: very first results should be in from about 20 minutes. While away the time by viewing my election day snaps, and keep an eye on the tussle for Mayo in the thread below.

993 Comments

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  1. 701
    Thomas Paine
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:14 am | Permalink

    On the balance of probabilities I would say Labor with two IND. But that is taking at face value what is on the ABC site and assuming postals don’t reverse anything.

  2. 702
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:15 am | Permalink

    Frank, you’re giving a new meaning to the expression ‘donkey vote”.

  3. 703
    Thomas Paine
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:17 am | Permalink

    The Liberals will kick themselves if they do lose. Like in the NT, had an unexpected chance to win and then to just miss out – giving Labor the chance and time to put its act in order for the next election.

  4. 704
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:18 am | Permalink

    Frank, you’re giving a new meaning to the expression ‘donkey vote”.

    The amount of people today refusing ANY How To Vote card gave no idea on what the voting intentions are, and it was the 20 somethings in the Sunglasses who were the worst offenders – Bloody Howard Yoof.

  5. 705
    Nick
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:18 am | Permalink

    Even if they don’t end up winning, I’ll still go to bed tonight with a smile on my face, knowing that Bishop and co certainly won’t have one on theirs.

  6. 706
    vera
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:19 am | Permalink

    Yep Generic that’s me loony and loving every minute
    ABC site last updated at 12.23am. have they finished for the night then?

  7. 707
    steve
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:19 am | Permalink

    “On the balance of probabilities I would say Labor with two IND. But that is taking at face value what is on the ABC site and assuming postals don’t reverse anything.”

    TP, I hope they are all in good health and unlikely to be forced out at a by-election.

  8. 708
    Generic Person
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:19 am | Permalink

    It is disappointing that the results are this close; given that on primary votes alone the ALP should be well and truly out of office. Barnett should abolish preferential voting and bring in the NSW system.

  9. 709
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:20 am | Permalink

    ABC site last updated at 12.23am. have they finished for the night then?

    Yep, but the best place for results is the WA Electoral Commission website, it even includs booth results.

    http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/

  10. 710
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:22 am | Permalink

    Barnett should abolish preferential voting and bring in the NSW system.

    It will not happen, the Upper House hasn’t got one vote one value – and I don’t think they’ll pass the legislation.

  11. 711
    vera
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:22 am | Permalink

    Thanks Frank

  12. 712
    David Walsh
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:24 am | Permalink

    What’s happening in North West?

    Latest figures show Labor not just ahead, but well ahead.

    Can that be right?

  13. 713
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:25 am | Permalink

    Ohh, Catania has won North West.

    http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_North_West/polling_place_results.php

  14. 714
    Nick
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:27 am | Permalink

    Big swing to Nats, but based on 0 votes last time…so no huge dent into ALP.

  15. 715
    Generic Person
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:27 am | Permalink

    No 713

    Where are the Nationals preferences flowing in North West?

  16. 716
    Ron
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:28 am | Permalink

    Never Surrender

    #699
    Northwest is in Labors 27 , Waneroo is a large 0.6% deficit 50.6 to 49.4 at 72.9% so can not see that coming back , just need one of two in doubt , just leading one & just behind in other

    Tink Antonys pref models ar superior to AEC’s

  17. 717
    Ron
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:34 am | Permalink

    Vera

    AEC says all seats ar final for nite , so good nite all

  18. 718
    David Walsh
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:35 am | Permalink

    GP 713,

    Beat me to it. I assume North West was written off because of (apparently false) assumptions about where the Nationals preferences would go.

  19. 719
    vera
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:36 am | Permalink

    G’nite Ron

  20. 720
    Nick
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:37 am | Permalink

    Excuse my hazy understanding but isn’t North West based on Greens and Fullarton’s preferences?

  21. 721
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:38 am | Permalink

    Greens very close to a whole quota in the metro seats, and as for Freo…

    The mood was a curious mix of jubilation and trepidation.

    Probably just like everyone else’s party…

  22. 722
    Never Surrender
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:40 am | Permalink

    re 716 ron

    This is a strange election where the people hate both parties and were actually voting on the individual they new, so more popular local members went against the normal big swing (where there was no incumbent the ALP got whacked). If postals may favour sitting members contrary to standard swings this dynamic may not be covered by the modelling.

  23. 723
    Generic Person
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:41 am | Permalink

    No 718

    I’d say it’s still too close to call Northwest until more votes are counted. If the trend continues in the GRN & IND favour, it would be safe to say that the LNP have no chance. But at this stage, it’s too early.

  24. 724
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:44 am | Permalink

    This is a strange election where the people hate both parties and were actually voting on the individual they new, so more popular local members went against the normal big swing (where there was no incumbent the ALP got whacked).

    That’s it in a nutshell, especially in Swan Hills where Alban was known as a City Of Swan Councillor, it worked in his favour, though the Libs lost the Arbor Grove booth because of his comments re Ellenbrook residents should be paying extra rates to subsidise the Rest of the Council.

  25. 725
    David Walsh
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:45 am | Permalink

    Are there many more votes to be counted?

    This is a seat with a large district allowance remember.

    If there’s only declaration votes to come, then I can’t see how the Libs can win from 45.73%.

  26. 726
    Never Surrender
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:47 am | Permalink

    re 724

    And Carol Adams ( mayor) won Kwinana and Michael Sutherland (Perth City Council Deputy) won Mt Lawley (Kucera would have won it)

  27. 727
    Denis
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:48 am | Permalink

    26 ALP
    25 Lib/Nat
    2 Labor Independents
    1 Liberal Independent
    5 in doubt – Albany, Alfred Cove, Forrestfield, Riverton, Wanneroo.

    Tipping Lib in Albany / Ind in Alfred Cove / Libs in remaining 3.
    (based on WAEC final figures for the night + tendency for conservatives to better in late mail)

    Thus:28 Labor + Independents / 31 Libs /Nats + independents.

    But: Albany / Forrestfield / Riverton are 2 close to call with confidence.

    Possible is: Labor Alliance 31 / Conservatives 28

    In which case: an election in 12 months, since LC results are mostly going the way of the conservatives.

  28. 728
    David Walsh
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:50 am | Permalink

    William,

    It’s under “Notional Distribution of Preferences”.

  29. 729
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:52 am | Permalink

    I wonder how many people DID’NT vote, for elctorates like Morley with 23.000 odd the total for the night is 17,356

  30. 730
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:52 am | Permalink

    Assuming you’re asking about North West, there’s still quite a few votes to count according to the WAEC, who say there’s 16,000 electors but have counted votes for 9,500.

    I guess the direction those votes take will be determined by where the remaining votes actually come from – I’d assume they’ve already counted the votes out of the main towns, so it would be remote communities that still have to be counted.

    IIRC this is an area with a pretty low turnout though, I think < 90% at past elections.

  31. 731
    Nick
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:56 am | Permalink

    Hmm, there’s a polling booth at Useless Loop Primary School.

  32. 732
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 3:57 am | Permalink

    I think a lot of dope smokers who voted for the Libs will be in for a surprise when they outlaw their Bongs :-)

  33. 733
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 4:07 am | Permalink

    Thanks David, I deleted my question within a few seconds of posting it because I worked it out.

  34. 734
    Never Surrender
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 4:13 am | Permalink

    Plenty of life in this election- you bet ALP has a few options why not give Janet a call- no love loss there with the libs. she probably won’t run another term, last chance for a ministerial once in a lifetime post. Hubby Dr Woollard made up with McGinty , come on jim have brekky with them to-morrow and keep boosting those southern health services

  35. 735
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 4:18 am | Permalink

    Plenty of life in this election- you bet ALP has a few options why not give Janet a call- no love loss there with the libs. she probably won’t run another term, last chance for a ministerial once in a lifetime post. Hubby Dr Woollard made up with McGinty , come on jim have brekky with them to-morrow and keep boosting those southern health services

    But Janet has said in one of her mailouts or in the media that she would support Barnett.

    Actually in Swan Hills Labor had posters saying “Vote Labor and this school will be upgraded, and “vote Labor and we will build the new Midland Hospital”. I noted that the Upper Swan Booth had no pics of Barnett, and the lady who rang 6PR allgeging that she rang Jaye & Giffard about traffic outside the school and getting no response was in my opinion, pulling everyone’s proverbial – as acording to both electorate officers, they never recieved any calls – and they DO record Every contact with electors.

  36. 736
    Generic Person
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 4:22 am | Permalink

    No 730

    I tend to agree Mr Q. It’s not appropriate to predict an ALP win just yet given the huge swing against it in that electorate. There’s no reason to suspect that swing won’t continue, but I’ll reserve judgment until more results are forthcoming.

  37. 737
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 4:27 am | Permalink

    736:

    Actually GP, the current swing in North West according to the WAEC is 0.6% to the ALP, not away.

  38. 738
    Generic Person
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 4:33 am | Permalink

    No 737

    Apologies Mr Q, you’re correct. I read the wrong figure on the ABC website.

  39. 739
    James
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 5:19 am | Permalink

    How many early votes were made before the lib’s ads were shown last week?

  40. 740
    Muskiemp
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    Have I missed something? I thought that the Nats were independant and not part of a coalition and will vote with which ever party gives them what they want. Also Carpenter has already been speaking with Grylls from the Nats.

  41. 741
    gusface
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    morning all

    geez wouldnt it be tragic if the fibs just got pipped at the post

    there will be some very very sad people out there

    all i can say is after reading this thread that the fib supporters need a win -any win,in fact i’m sure the fibs would celebrate winning a chook raffle at the moment

    and that would be all they deserve.

    ps did anyone ask buswell if he could sniff victory :)

  42. 742
    Bird of paradox
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    They say they are. In reality, it’d be amazing if they didn’t go with the Libs… then again, you never know. If the swing against Labor was that big, it’d be very hard for the Nationals to spin.

    Arr, what a disaster. This has helped ruin my night (along with not being able to wear a nice hat in a formerly free ‘n’ easy nightclub). I did my democratic chore down in scary Kelmscott, and voted ALP 1 for the first time ever. Usually I preference them after the Greens or a half-decent independent… this time I reckoned McTiernan’s done well enough for me to not do the usual protest vote. I guess that makes me a little out of step (although she did get a swing towards her). It’ll be a shame she’s gone (I’m assuming a shaky Liberal minority govt, although I’ll be happy to be proven wrong)… if it’s so, she’ll be wasted on the opposition. You Vics or NSW’ers need to find her a safe seat, you could use a decent transport and planning minister. ;)

    (Oh my god, I just realised that new minister will likely be Simon O’Brien, knucklehead MLC who hated the Mandurah line being put through leafy Applecross. Well, across the river from it. OMG, poor people might pass though! What an absolute disaster for WA.)

  43. 743
    Bird of paradox
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:30 am | Permalink

    Also, where the hell did Carol Adams come from? That was Labor’s second-safest seat. And as for Adele Carles in Freo… gawd, that’s funny. She got a few % last time running as a ‘Save South Beach’ independent… now she’s got possibly the best result ever for a Green in the lower house in WA. (Is it, knowledgable ones?) Jim Scott must be grumpy.

  44. 744
    Dyno
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    Hmmm,
    I guess it’ll be mid-week before we have an outcome?
    What will the Party think of Carpenter’s ludicrous decision to go early? Surely, even if Labor hangs on in a minority Govt, his position must be shaky internally in the next couple of years?

  45. 745
    ruawake
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    Truss sounded almost suicidal on AM. He was not too sure that the Nats will back the Libs. :)

  46. 746
    Classified
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:42 am | Permalink

    Fun night!… Hat’s off to Mr Bowe for his mighty efforts to bring us the news in the face of multiple tech drama’s… Well done William!. if the Lib’s form Gov then I’ve won a few pennies, will send you some for a nice “recovery red” :)

  47. 747
    rod
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:48 am | Permalink

    “But deputy federal opposition leader Julie Bishop said there was little chance the Nationals would desert the Liberals if they were required to help them form government.

    “People who vote National would expect them to form a coalition government (with the Liberals),” she said.”

    Why vote for the Nats at all then if they are just going to side with the libs anyway. Way to go Julie,to paint the Nats as an independent party with their own thought processes.

  48. 748
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    The more you think about it, you realise this really is a horrible result for Labor.

    The Liberals have churned through four leaders this term, are led by someone who had already announced his retirement, had about half their party resign in a huff, have Sniffsniff as their 2IC, were caught unprepared for an early election, and two weeks of the campaign drowned out by the Olympics. And the WA economy is booming.

    So what the hell happened?

  49. 749
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:55 am | Permalink

    Fascinating election. Whoever governs will be seeking another election pretty quickly you would think. Governing under these circumstances will not be easy.

  50. 750
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008 at 8:57 am | Permalink

    “So what the hell happened?”
    Ask the people of WA. They have to live with it.

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