9.07am. There is now a notional count for Morley on the WAEC site (don’t ask me where it went last night), and it looks clear the Liberals have in fact won. So Labor needs to win Riverton, Forrestfield and Albany, and is not looking the goods in the former.
2.25am. Revised final call for the evening. The ABC gives the Liberals eight definite gains from Labor: Bunbury, Darling Range, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Southern River and Swan Hills. However, I think Wanneroo can probably be added to the list. They also have their nose in front in Riverton and are very likely to pull further ahead in late counting, and a good chance of reining in Labor’s 166-vote lead in Morley and 242-vote lead in Forrestfield. However, Labor is 117 votes ahead in the notional Liberal seat of Albany, and the Liberals have lost Kalgoorlie to an independent likely to back Labor. If Labor can win three out of Riverton, Morley, Forrestfield and Albany, there might yet be a minority Labor government. However, it needs to be remembered that outside of the Mining and Pastoral region, Labor did about 2 per cent worse on non-booth votes than booth votes in 2005, to their cost in late counting. Kwinana appears to have fallen to independent Carol Adams, so any Labor government would be hanging on for dear life with the support of two independents.
1.53am. Hmm – and we’ve also got North West as “Labor win” now. Would like a clearer idea of what’s happened here – possibly an unexpected Nationals preference flow. The WAEC site says 4729 to 3985, which is unequivocal. There might be life yet in this game.
1.16am. ABC computer has moved Wanneroo from Liberal “gain” to “ahead”. Labor in fact leads by six votes, but extrapolating the pattern of late voting from last time puts the Liberals 0.6 per cent ahead.
11.59pm. An intriguing development in Morley, which has gone from Liberal win to “ALP ahead” on the ABC computer, presumably involving official preference figures (the WAEC doesn’t have such a thing on its site as the original D’Orazio-versus-Labor count was junked). If Labor does win Morley, a majority for Labor plus Labor independents becomes mathematically possible again, requiring wins in Riverton (Labor trails by 32 votes), Forrestfield (leads by 242 votes) and Collie-Preston (leads by 416 votes). However, Labor tends not to do very well in late counting.
10.48pm. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.
10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.
10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.
10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.
10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.
10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.
10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.
10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.
10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.
9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?
9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.
9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.
9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.
9.17pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.
9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.
9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.
9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.
9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.
9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.
9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.
9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.
8.59pm. Regarding Fremantle: The gap between the Liberals and Greens is getting very wide though.
8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.
8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.
8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.
8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.
8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.
8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.
8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.
8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor. ABC has given Kwinana back to Labor, formerly given to independent Carol Adams.
8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.
8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.
8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.
8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.
8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.
8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.
8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Have added what I posted there below.
8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.
8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.
Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley
Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West, Wanneroo.
Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.
Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.
8.25pm. I’ve taken it over to Larvatus Prodeo.
8.13pm. Labor still ahead in Collie-Preston, just barely, with almost all booths counted.
8.10pm. ABC calling Joondalup for Labor, but I wouldn’t stake the bank on that yet.
8.08pm. Forrestfield “in trouble”, Steven Smith almost calling it.
8.06pm. Contest narrowing in Wanneroo …
8.06pm. But Matt Birney’s critique of The West up in lights.
8.05pm. Regarding the outages, I’ve just written to Larvatus Prodeo to see if I can do my live blog there, so keep an eye out there if I go down here for the long-term.
8.04pm. Matt Birney not sounding certain though.
8.01pm. Swing showing to Labor in Scarborough – probably an anomaly or an error.
8.00pm. Liberal also ahead in Forrestfield.
7.53pm. Labor out of the woods in Kimberley.
7.52pm. Now also chat of poor Greens preference flow, which if accurate means even bigger trouble.
7.48pm. Definite losses: Bunbury, Jandakot, Kingsley, Mount Lawley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range. Big trouble: Wanneroo, Swan Hills, North West (though Swan Hills down from “LIB WIN” to “LIB AHEAD”). Possibly Labor gain in Albany, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Nothing lately from Kalgoorlie.
7.46pm. So Mount Lawley gone. Smith seems to think Labor need to win all of Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup, Riverton, Collie-Preston, and at least one of those seems unlikely. Swan Hills, North West gone … you’d almost start thinking about calling it.
7.45pm. News flash – early double digit swing in Wanneroo, computer calls it for Liberal.
7.44pm. No, Labor now ahead in Collie-Preston. The moral of the story is that these early ABC calls are probably less reliable than normal due to the redistribution and perhaps the high non-major party vote.
7.42pm. ABC calls Ocean Reef and Collie-Preston for Liberal.
7.40pm. I’m back … Labor appear to be conceding Mount Lawley, but they’re holding on in Riverton and might even win Albany, although I wouldn’t be sure about the latter – this will be the rural booths where Labor didn’t campaign in the past. The city booths could still lose it for them.
7.35pm. Labor back ahead in Riverton.
7.32pm. Bad news continues to accumulate for Labor – Liberal now ahead in Riverton.
7.31pm. Liberal now ahead in Alfred Cove.
7.29pm. It’s calling Cannington for Liberal is well. Labor had better hope that there are a lot of anomalies coming through at the moment.
7.28pm. ABC calls Mount Lawley for Liberal with double digit swing.
7.27pm. ABC calls Pilbara for Liberal, which means it’s all over if so. I wouldn’t call that seat quite yet, but a number of bad results are accumulating for Labor.
7.25pm. Stephen Smith suggests trouble in North West as well. I believe what he just said about Riverton is out of date now, i.e. a new booth has been better for them.
7.24pm. One piece of good news for Labor: swing in Riverton a manageable 0.6 per cent with 8.9 per cent counted.
7.24pm. ABC computer has Liberals ahead in Kimberley with 7.9 per cent swing, 5.3 per cent counted.
7.18pm. Very ugly swing against Labor in Cannington also.
7.18pm. Third news flash: Also calls Southern River for Liberal. Huge trouble for Labor if this keeps up.
7.17pm. Another news flash: ABC calls Jandakot for Liberal, 10 per cent swing from 6.6 per cent. Big shock.
7.14pm. News flash: ABC calls Swan Hills for Liberal. I wouldn’t quite call it yet: 6.6 per cent swing from 5.9 per cent counted not good for Labor though.
7.13pm. ABC calls Morley for Labor, but its judgements can be awry when independents are involved. John D’Orazio not looking in the hunt.
7.16pm. ABC calls Scarborough for Liberal, 3.9 per cent swing from 18.8 per cent counted.
7.13pm. I speak too soon – now “LIB AHEAD” by 0.4 per cent, 25.7 per cent counted.
7.12pm. Labor still highly competitive in Collie-Preston with 22.6 per cent counted.
7.10pm. ABC computer has “ALP AHEAD” in Albany, but only 5.2 counted.
7.09pm. First two Nedlands booths encouraging for Sue Walker.
7.09pm. First booth from Swan Hills, Gidgegannup Town Hall, gives Labor a dangerous 7.1 per cent Liberal swing.
7.08pm ABC computer calls Kalamunda for Liberals.
7.06pm. Labor might be a little troubled by 5.5 per cent swing from 5.5 per cent counted in Girrawheen, if it proves typical for the northern suburbs.
7.04pm. Labor doing a little better than I had expected in the first rural booths from Collie-Preston.
7.03pm. ABC computer calls Bunbury for Liberal – 9.5 per cent swing from 6.3 per cent counted.
6.58pm. Early Alfred Cove results show Janet Woollard might struggle to get ahead of Labor – down to Greens preferences. This from the Labor-voting end of the electorate though.
6.51pm. Two good early booths in for Labor from West Swan, maybe boding well for them in Swan Hills.
6.50pm. Julie Bishop reading too much into early Morley figures.
6.49pm. Very strong performance from Bowler also on early pre-poll votes.
6.47pm. Very encouraging first booth for John Bowler in Kalgoorlie – Kalgoorlie District Education Office, 434 votes.
6.42pm. Only 289 votes, but the Lower Kalgan Hall booth in Albany has swung heavily to Labor.
6.29pm. “Early Votes (In Person)” starting to appear – pre-polls, in other words.
6.28pm. Very first rural booths show encouraging signs for the Nationals.
6.00pm. Welcome everybody. Polling booths are now closed: very first results should be in from about 20 minutes. While away the time by viewing my election day snaps, and keep an eye on the tussle for Mayo in the thread below.
993 Comments
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William, so it sounds like a minority Liberal government is still more likely than a Labor one?
What’s the 2PP?
“What’s the 2PP?”
With a name like Pseph I would expect you to be telling us.
This is probably the wrong thread but Milne is spinning last night’s events in Mayo and Lyne as a devastating blow to Nelson and a call for Turnbul or Cossie to take over.
Mayo blow to Nelson will force Costello’s hand
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24306737-5006301,00.html
MDMC @ 747,
Yes, it’s a horrible result for Labor, no matter how people may try to spin it. Perhaps not the smartest early election?
Even if Carpenter hangs on, he’s gone from a comfortable position to one where he’s dependent on independents (and what will presumably be a pretty pissed-off ALP) to keep his job.
And all this has been achieved by his own fair hand.
Dio @ 753,
Mayo is a pretty big blow for Nelson I would have thought. You would know better than I do, but I wonder how much Briggs’s “creator of WorkChoices” persona contributed?
Lyne not so much – although the sheer size of Oakeshott’s win was ominous for the Nationals.
Milne is probably a bit scared of the current fad of bagging people who dare to force early elections,a weird construct that hasn’t seemed to apply in Gippsland,or Mayo but will the Liberals encounter it in Higgins?
from the world of dodgy baba ganoush comes this pearler
“”Well that’s because the economy has deteriorated over the last six to 12 months and what you’ve seen is that people are worse off since the election of Kevin Rudd and Australians are saying it was a lot better under the previous federal government than it is under the current Federal Government,” he said.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/07/2357520.htm?section=justin
There was nothing to say of course that had Carpenter given the Libs more time to prepare and gone early next year that the result would have been any better. In fact you could mount a case for thinking it may have been worse.
Just on this idea of whether it was a good or bad result, so what? It has happened and it is bad to lose so many seats. I don’t recall anyone suggesting otherwise. What would be a remarkable achievement now is if Labor hangs on to form a minority government.
The National is a conservative party
Most of the people who voted for them voted 1 Nat 2 Lib last Lab
If the Nationals betray their base and supported a Labor government, they better get the Sun, the moon and several thousand stars for the country area, if not they will be wiped out at the next election, when the people who vote them in kick them out.
and if the Lab give in, there is no chance they will win the next election …. weak, unstable gov, who do not know if they are progressive or conservative
There will be threats, but the Nat will not end with Labor
There will be weak, unstable government no matter who forms it. That’s what has happened here.
dovif
There is a precedent in SA.
Ru
shoosh – the fibs dont like facts that upset their narratives
Mr Barnett also congratulated his opponent, but added that the voters of Western Australia had clearly rejected the Carpenter Government.
“The voters of Western Australia have clearly expressed their viewpoint today,” he said.
“Clearly” ??????
Hung parliament, no majority to either party.
Clearly is majority governments that we have in all the other states and territories and federally.
Most likely atm
ALP 27 to 29
Lib 22 to 25
Nat 4
Ind 3 or 4
If postal and absentee acts like the last election (even without the swing) Liberal will win both seat from the ALP
Sue Walker will support the Liberal is the doubtful ind Vs Lib
So likely
ALP 27
Lib 24
Nat 4
2 ex-Lib independant who will support Barrett
1 ex- Lib 4F independant who has said will support Barrett
1 ex-Lab independant
so should be ALP+ ind 28 Lib + ind 31
3 seat minority government can be killed by 2 crossing the floor
One thing for sure is that the ‘unrepresentative swill’ in the senate madly blocking bills in the hope of forcing a Double Dissolution are likely to find all their efforts will come to zero.
764 dovif – no one is willing to claim those figures to be on the money. Still too close to call. By the way who is Barrett?
ruawake
no there isn’t
Rann had a minority government
he needs 2 of 4 independants to support him to have a majority
He did not smart thing and offer all 4 position in the government
Even if the Nat did not support him, he would have formed government
He just want to minimise the chance for 1 person to destroy his government by appeasing all 4 ind
He offered a Nat a cabinet position for the vote
There is already talk that the Nat is gone at the next election for supporting labor,
Garry
Must be a sad day in ALP land
had there been a person who went to an election that early and lost
you must think he would at least think there is an 80% chance of winning before jumping
Carpenter will be gone no matter what, even if ALP clear both too close to call
Re Nationals in SA: you have to remember the current Liberal Party there is already a ‘merger’ from earlier on of the conservative country and urban parties – which formed the Liberal Country League. The Liberals were a rebrand of the LCL once the Playmander left the scene. So any Nationals these days to not have as much significance as they do in say WA, Vic, NSW and especially QLD. [Remember NT has merged Nat/Lib party although the Nats did run as a separate party in the late 80's up there not to much avail though]
Dovif, ALP land will hold up alright. The crying and gnashing of teeth is coming from the conservative side. A Liberal rabble in coalition with a mob that want nothing to do with them will make for an interesting week full of laughs.
That is why their sole National MP could take that risk and go into a COALITION with Labor. [yes to those conservatives out there- it is a coalition- so deal with it]
768 dovif – no, he thought it was his best chance. Of course he had to go in 6 months time anyway and that was no choice. I don’t accept Carpenter will go if he remains as premier. Why would he either go himself or be pushed when the numbers are needed? Doesn’t make sense.
An election loss or near thing is not a pleasant thing but it makes no difference to me at all. I’m interested in the politics of it across the board. I’d have preferred Labor to get up but such is life.
Gary Bruce where were you last night when the despairing colleagues needed you?
This is a terrible result for Labor. The smarties thought they would clean up with an early election. As it turned out the simplest of promises from a credible leader ie to restore honest government was enough to finish them off.
The talk of a deal with the Nats only confirms the impression, Labor will say or do anything to cling on. In many ways it would probably be better for the Libs if they tried – it would simply prolong the agony and set up the Libs for a bigger swing in 12 months.
The only way back for WA Labor is a federal intervention and a cleanout of the ranks. WA Labor will have to skip a generation and rebuild.
If the Nationals were to support Labor though, which ministries do you think would go? And would they settle for Deputy Premier? I really do think it unreasonable for a party of 4 MPs in the house to ask for the Premiership – I’d like to see them try the same thing with the Liberals.
ha I could imagine the cold shower from that one.
The liberals will govern with the help of the Nationals.
Carps was too arrogant and complacent, he blew it.
Steve
well the electorate want to see it
They think the rabbles can do better than the ALP. Note an ALP vote of 35% means almosts 2 in 3 people did not vote the ALP, 2 in 3 people gave a no confidence to carpenter as a premier
That is pretty damning
and he change to electorate to give him a better chance of being elected
We’re aware of the conservative propaganda dovif but I remain convinced that if Labor can’t get a win without the Nats, they should let the rabble rule.
Actually if both too close to call falls Liberal and on past trand they probably will
it will be 24 Liberal +2 Liberal(Ind) Sue Walker and Liz Constable + 4 National
That is just a Lib Nat coalition, it might not be unstable at all
Well, thanks to William I’m in a more upbeat mood this morning with those surprise actuals from Morley and North West.
It’s a hung parliament, folks, and nothing will change to prevent that. It’s worse than what I thought would happen, but the Liberals certainly haven’t “won”, despite the gleeful assertions of La Bishop last night.
Hopefully we will now see what Brendan Grylls is made of. Those of you in the Eastern states are forgetting that he has actually expended a great deal of time and effort under his leadership to de-couple the Nationals from being the Liberals’ lapdog and taken them back to their roots as a party for the regions. And they’re probably more progressive here than anywhere. I believe he saw, correctly, that they would ultimately be destroyed if they didn’t become more independently minded – so a co-operative agreement with Labor is not out of the question at all, especially if the ALP ends up with 27 or 28 seats.
Still, I am happy for Grylls because his hard work appears to have paid off…and even if they do decide to vote with the Liberals, I can guarantee that daylight saving is going to be scrapped!
Either way, it will be a very unstable government in the Legislative Assembly – particularly if ALP-Bowler-Adams and Lib-Nat-Constable-Woolard are deadlocked 29-29 all the time with the Speaker’s casting vote. Therefore, this will be one the shortest-lived Parliaments in WA for a loooong time…
775 dovif – actually if they thought the rabbles could do a better job they would have given them a clear cut majority. It really was a case of we don’t trust either of you.
People walked in knowing the Nationals could be “independent”. I would assume those voter’s no 1 concern would be benefits to the bush.
If siding with Labor gives them more of those things then the Libs. (Note the “If”) Why would those voters punish the Nationals?
1 thing I would love is
Cost of Constable and Walker re-joining Liberal…………THE SNIFFLER
Sertse
because conservatives do not like Labor government
That is why most non mining rural seats are Liberal or National seats
and 3 of the Nats need Labor preference to get elected
and if the Nat vote falls 3-4% they finish below Labor and it cost them the seat
Phil doesn’t pull his punches:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24299095-5013491,00.html
Anyone have a link to figures on past postal, pre-poll, and absent voting in previous WA Elections?
Can I address some incorrect comments about Maywald in SA. As you know, she is a National. Rann needed her to form his FIRST government and she got Water. He promised to keep her on if he won a SECOND term, and if she was re-elected. She, and he, won easily. Her electorate was very happy to re-elect a National who helped Labor form a government.
The most stable government for WA would be a Labor/Nat one. The Nats would get Water and Primary Industry at least.
This could get interesting.
But the conservatives keep telling us that last night’s vote was for insability. Give it to them in buckets loads I say. Form a Nat/Lib coalition now!
Diogenes
do not know how you got the most stable government from
A conservative right wing party and a progressive party forming a coalition gives a stable government?
The Liberal if they won the 2 too close to call, which will both drift Lib way through absentee and postal
will have 24+ 2 Lib independant (who are part of the party)
add 4 National
gives a conservative coalition
Diogene
If the Lib and Labor form a coallition that would be pretty stable they will have 90% of Lower and 80% of upper house seat
According to the latest figures on the ABC site, Labor can potentially get to 29 seats, if they win 2 of the doubtfuls.
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Carpenter!
Wait and see what happens with the postals/absentees.
steve it’s over. For Labor making a clean break is a smarter move. Hanging on just leads to crises and instability which in turn leads to wipeout at subsequent polls.
If the WA Libs are as divided as everybody claims it would be smarter for the ALP to see the Libs in and out v.quickly (assuming they will be constantly fighting) and have a proper majority when it comes to a new poll.
Whatever way you choose to put it there is a conservative majority in the new WA parliament. If a bit of it (the Nats) goes with Labor its inherently unstable.
Fulvio nailed it last night – its better in some circumstances to be out then try and cling on.
Talkon (778)
According to the WAEC site, the final for the night in Morley is Whitby 7804 Britza 8327 on a notional 2PP. So I think Whitby has not made it.
They do have the strange position of Catania way ahead in North West on N2PP (54.27%), so maybe these figures need to be confirmed before it looks like the ALP could be back.
I agree with what you say about Grylls and the Nats. The WA Nats are not like other Nats.
so close to power you can sniff it eh ESJ
oh so much of a tease for the fibs
dangle dangle dangle
ESJ exactly what I say.
LOL Gusface, one would be stretching it to call State Government “power”.
Progressive,
I wouldn’t write off Labor – agree with that.
But surely the Labor backbench is not so supine as to let Carpenter get away with a self-indulgent act of political (near) suicide – an act that was based on the (incorrect) assumption that voters are sleepy dopes who will let you get away with anything, no matter how cynical, as long as you bear the brand name “ALP”.
Sure, they won’t challenge Carpenter next week or even next month. But his guru status is certainly gone! And maybe the Premiership as well, we will see.
ESJ
what would you call it then?
Gusface:
State Government = blood sucking bureacracy
Well I think Bomber might have made the observation last night, but Carps went too late not too early.
Catching sniffer in the chair almost certainly would have given Carps the easy landslide win he was assuming was going to happen as he ignored pre-selection candidates like Adams in Kwinana, assuming he didn’t need good candidates and that any mate of his was good enough.
Carp’s public stoush with Ms Radisich obviously didn’t help in Swan Hills, and D’orazio may have his revenge, if not the seat he was hoping for.
Some of you are saying it is about candidates, but while it might explain some labor hanging on, it doesn’t explain liberal candidates that would have to be considered weak on any measure still getting up. Just my view.
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