| ALP | LIB | Total | |
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 |
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
356 Comments
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No 198
Any form of socialism is logically stupid. But I’m sure you won’t criticise the ALP for that.
The Nats are a regional party - thus it is there job to spur government investment in regional areas.
the results have been odd and all over the place in soem seats joondalup and mindarie are examples but where there has not been an inumbent labor member or one of ALANS star candiates the libs have won although southern river was won from a member that did hardly any work before the election and goin on that shane hill must not have done much in the consertave part that used to be in greenough of geraldton which has clearly voted liberal
generic person@199
sorry but some times the truth is inconvenient
(thank you for not addressing me as a number but as a person)
No 200
A valiant effort Frank but I’m afraid your argument still fails.
The question is not why the loss wasn’t greater, but why the ALP sustained such a loss at all given the shambles the Libs were in just one day prior to the election being called.
The exception of course is West Swan, Gosnells with Chris Tallentine from the Conservation Council, and Bill Johnston in Cannington
ps
please try to extend that courtesy to all posters here (I think bilbo would like to hope we are all civilised on this site)
ta
correct you are totally right generic person it is a clear backlash regardless of minor party the libs surged in the primary vote state wide labour did not that clearly show that people did not want alan in for another 4 yrs
No 206.
but they are safe seats i sould have mentioned i was refering to marginals and what happend in morley probly wont hapend next time round thats all thanks to john d
GP @204
surely if the will of the people was so strong then the Libs(no matter what disarray they may have been in) should have romped this one in?
ps did you see my @206
tallentine got a huge swing from a campain that was proorly funded and the lib candiate not very spectalur it will now be considerd marginal
No 203
What’s inconvenient? The ALP didn’t just get a slap on the wrist (a few seats lost) as you’ve been trying to advance; rather, it got a 10 massive body blows to the extent that the Parliament is currently hung on the most recent counting.
But which party had more seats to get to the magic 30 ?
GP@212
but surely,as in the Federal sphere,when the people want change the people want change (i could bore you with precedents but i suspect you already know them)
So why did the voters of WA NOT give the libs a clear mandate GP -that my dera is the question!
everything else is “an inconvenient truth” to the libs and the MSM narrative
pps did you see my @206
“Mr Barnett, who took over the leadership from scandal-ridden Troy Buswell a day before the poll was called, was ear-to-ear smiles as yesterday. But he was cool on just how far he was prepared to go to get Nationals support.
“The state does receive very large sums of money in royalty income, but under the federal-state financial relationship Western Australia effectively loses commonwealth grants because we get the royalty income,” he said. “The net effect is about 10 per cent of the royalty income actually stays with Western Australia, so the numbers that have been talked about, this is not some cream on top of the cake, it’s actually in the cake itself.” “
For example:
ALP 18
Lib 40
Nat 4
OTH 4
It is not how many seats you have but how many you lose that is imporant in deciding government. If you had 45 and ended up with 35 then that is a clear message from the electorate that you should give up government. That would be a double 99
labour has gone from a ten seat majority government to a party with proably 26-27 seats thats says it all plus the libs just 5 weeks ago was poised to be voted into oblivon thanks to mr troy buswell polling was predicting the libs would have 8-10 seats that in its self shows that labor cocked up big time and i am sure that if labor does stay in government carps will be booted for mcgowan or wyatt mabye even allanah shes probaly the only popular minister labor has
TP
just finishing a bootle of st remy (thanks kids) wtf was 217 all about
No, it’s 30 seats, anything else is a bonus
THAT is the magic number which determines who gets the keys to the piggybank.
Having a joke gusface on the notion that if you have a big swing against you it is a message that the electorate dont want you, even if you are still the majority party. What do you do after 99..
thats like a 25 seat gain brian burke would have to be made premier again for that sort of number for the libs
Thomas,
makes my comment at 220 a bit redundant then
Oh the problems with posts coming while responding to the original one.
TP@221
normally most people would pray that they lived to 100
sorry,TP the ONLY issue here is that the libs have NO clear mandate to form gvt.
now we let the gods decide the fall of the cards.
And as it stands carps has the best hand.
labor should concede carps sould resign and start all over again and then you will be in a good chance of winnign 2012 when a barnett government has imploded and dealy with the nats and inds
No 221
That argument can be reversed: if the electorate clearly wanted Labor then why are its chances of retaining government on a knife-edge (and likely lost)?
it is also a good time to elevate ben wyatt mabye the next barrak obama of australia
William
I do not see how Labor has lost Morley , yet
refer Southernboy #167
That WAEC site Southernboy kindly linked is extraordinary , once you got out of it there’s no link to go back into it unlike all other Seats
Also it shows Liberals at 2PP 51.62% to Labor 48.38% on count 16131 (being 425 total votes less than WAEC & ABC show were then counted of 16556)
ABC site predicts on same total of 16556 total votes then counted Labor 50.4 to Liberals 49.6
WAEC hard to find 2PP site above (less 425 votes) shows 2PP Labor 48.38% to Libs 51.62% BUT that could only be achied by a pref flow to Labor of 20% CDP , 55% Greens , 15% Independent/donkey and 45% D’Orazio
Did D’Orazio pref Libs , and even so thats a low Greens & CDP pref flow
No 225
I’d say Labor already imploded whilst in office given that Carpenter had to sack 5 ministers for consorting with Mr Burke.
gp@226
thank you for that
“i understand that todays vote was a protest vote and i will take that onboard”
WHO said it AND when
Yep, D’Orazio did preference Libs, and put the Christian Democrats first in the Upper house.
No 230
No need to thank me.
“The protest vote” monicker can only be ascribed to the election once counting is finished.
Not THAT fairytale again I don’t think people had Burke on their mind when they cast their votes - The Libs campaigned on shockjock talking points.
Gp @232
actually one john winston howard
the beazley bungled election
GP when the people want change they get it in a clear unadulterated way
it hurts and i feel your pain,but hey get over it , i have
if the results are right on that waec link then i carnt see whitby scraping back
there is something i no clearly swan hills went nuts 8% swing in one of the ellenbrook booths only lost it by 40 votes and thats bullsbrook and gigdegannup are now like 60% liberal or close
Gus
I’m with you , its a totally irrelevant argument how many seats you lose , think TP is on that dream drink , queston always is if you hav enough to form Govt , fullstop
Oh and wasn’t one of Howard’s Minister’s “forced to resign”, for “Consorting with Mr Burke”, as well as the John McGrath & Anthony Fels, oh and Troy Buswell is no cleanskin either in that regard, considering he was Shire President during the whole Smiths Beach debacle.
the good people of swan hills clearly did not want gramae giffard
I’m interested Frank… what did they have in mind in Swan Hills when they delivered a 6+% swing to the Libs.
which party does brian burke come from which party made him premier thats just says it all
and on swan hill frank you had mendioned before abour frank albans unpopularity in eleenbrook due to him wanting them to pay more money in rates then why did the people over elenbrook vote against labour one answer alan carpenter DEAD MAN WALKING
SB
the issue aint personalities as such
more the substance behind each party
otherwise we would have seen a lib gvt
yes or no
Re Morley
BUT surely one would think over 70% of D’Orazio’s votes were Labor seeing voters had option of Independent & CDP & Liberal
ABC Antony has certainly assumed that & set his pref model accordingly , very ususual Labor only got approx 45% of his prefs
Frank.
Ian Campbell had one meeting with Mr Burke… one that Mr Burke wasn’t even invited to. He shouldn’t have resigned… but had to so that the feds could keep up pressure on Rudd, who canvassed Burkes support prior to his election to ALP leadership.
To put anyone in the same boat as the ALP Ministers who gave Cabinet information to a lobbyist (and got big fundraisers from the same lobbyist - not that there is any connection between the two) is ridiculous.
abour grove is the one i am talking about and coolamon is not a good area for the libs charollotes vineyard is better
No 242
We may yet still see a Liberal Government in WA. I’m quite confident that Barnett will secure the deal. It’s clearly quite untenable for the Nats to join with Labor. Sure, it might work short term, but they’ll end up eroding their base substantially.
ummmm
my NCB beats your BB anytime
just ask the electorate
No 245
Joe, you can keep talking to the cows come home but Frank will never sway from his indignant support for the ALP.
Keep dreaming, the Body language from Barnett on election night means Grylls will give him the Finger.
I can feel it in my waters.
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