This fortnight’s Newspoll shows Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 56-44. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 62 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s is up two to 16 per cent.
The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor retaining its 59-41 lead. Peter Costello is rated best person to lead the Liberals by 26 per cent against 13 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, 8 per cent for Julie Bishop and 7 per cent for Brendan Nelson. However, Kevin Rudd is preferred to Peter Costello head-to-head 53 per cent to 27 per cent.
916 Comments
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No2
” Infrastructure spending was extensive in the Howard years, particularly on roads. 20 billion plus Auslink 1 and Auslink 2, roads to recovery and so on.”
that fits in well with the road to nowhere view of the fibs
Realistically, the only thing you could possibly say the Libs would have done differently on petrol pricing would have been to charge 5c less per litre. That’s a 3.3% reduction.
Then again, if Howard had been elected last November he would not have reduced petrol excise. He has been known to state that he did it once (2001), but would never do it again.
So really, this petrol pricing thing is at best moot, at worst a fairy tale.
As for interest rate rises, 10 in a row prior to the election is a pretty hard record to just shrug off as disconnected with the rises after the election.
As for the banks, they put up their rates over and above the RB, simply because they (a) could and (b) had to cover their losses from the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. Really nothing at all to do with Rudd and Swan.
I think this naive assertion that Swan “talked down the economy”, thus (somehow) giving lenders and retailers a “licence” to increase prices is pretty dishonest. Apart from the fact that the Libs, in making their criticisms that Swan talked down the economy, themselves talked down the economy in the process (and Costello was at it in full smirk mode today, from a safe overseas location… wonderful Prime Ministerial material, that), the time had come for a sharpish reminder from the RB that life in Oz was not all beer and skittles.
I think this warning has been heeded, and I don’t think the public is minded to approve of their government starting the handout gravy train all over again.
If you needed anyother indication that people in general think Labor is the mob to fix things, today’s Newspoll – and the last fifty or so of them since August 2006 – certainly support my contention.
* I probably agree with you on schools and possibly on broadband, although the market has not shown itself very keen so far on networking a country this big and this sparsely populated.
* Spending on pensioners in the Howard years was not excessive – it was haphazard, arbitrary and driven by populist politics and the electoral cycle.
* Infrastructure spending under Howard was franchised to the Nats who rorted it ruthlessly to try to save their seats, so not much of it went where it was needed. My opinion of the acuity of country folk went up enormously on election night when they kicked out the main culprit Dee-Ann Kelly, despite Dawson being knee-deep in Regional Rorts and Roads to More Rorts money.
Scorpio
I did an analysis of th famous 1 million in number internet $20 mum & dad donors all alegedly not lobbyists , connected to big Oil etc , and like so many things about electons there its a myth , all of above ar in both candidates ledger AND biggest % contributors to there respective funds ,as one would logicaly expect , its all public record and broken by $ values but 000’s of pages Only did it as was tired of hearing of a new way of ’solely’ raising funds , well it is new and moneys collected were not insignificant but most money is usual suspects for both 7 will be governed for accordingly
GP (574)
I agree with you that Adams can have a bilious and abrasive style at times, which can rub people who don’t share his viewpoint up the wrong way . A pity though that you can’t see that the same can be said of your own style sometimes – only the subject matter is different.
No 601
Please tell me where there has been a road to nowhere.
The Westlink M7 in Sydney (linking the M2, M4 and M5), funded partly by the Federal Government ($356 million) and the rest by the private sector ($1.2 billion), is credited with spurring major expansion of industrial areas in Western Sydney.
That’s just one example of many.
No 605
Yes, I can be abrasive. Fully admit it. But Adams is a journalist bound by a code of ethics. I am not and this is a private blog.
No2
would you like it state by state, or specific examples.
So it’s ok for you to offend whoever you like, but not for Adams to do the same thing. Sounds like a hypocritical argument to me.
That’s all for tonight.
GP, you are a worthy adversary. I salute you. I hope you are on the shortlist for Berowra.
No 603
1. Your claim the market has failed to network the country is completely wrong. Telstra switched on its national Next G network which covers 99% of the population or over 2 million square kilometres. Optus and Vodafone are also extending their coverage to more than 1 million square kilometres or over 95% of the population. That is all without government intervention.
The Fibre to the Node proposal is wasteful and it has sinister intentions to confiscate Telstra’s privately-owned PSTN network. Ideally, if the Government was worried about fixed-line broadband, it should have earmarked the funding for a regional and rural network, not a national one. Broadband of 12mbit/s is already available to most metro citizens and select regional areas.
2. It was excessive. There was a ridiculous amount of bonus pork showered on the pensioner electorates throughout the latter half of the Howard years.
3. Your entitled to your opinion, but I disagree.
Adam,
At least he has the bottle to play.
I think I’ve had enough too.
Got to give it to GP though. Except for probably a little kip this evening, he has been posting all the way through this thread, now up to 611.
No 609
The fact that Adams spends his time expressing predictions on when McCain will die in Office is just ridiculous, as is most of his writing. It isn’t journalism, it is partisan rubbish and rarely logical in its premise. Even lowly Piers Ackerman has higher standards.
Also Darn, before you start screaming hypocrisy, just note that I’ve been called every name under the sun by you hacks since I joined this blog! From neo-con to c*nt, I’ve been on the receiving end of some of the most egregious attacks. But don’t worry, I give as good as I get (refraining from expletives).
Scorpio,
You reckon it’s one person or a group of Liberal friends?
GG
Am sure th butterflys in mourning about th poll bounce for Maverick and th Lady recently , however not being psephologicaly inclined they don’t realise that such ‘bounces’ ar transitory from a Convention especialy given coverage given to th Lady herself whether they end up in 1 week or 2 back to pre BOTH conventions is queston , but sharp narrowing will occur off that maverick bounce , and that oiliness has many mavrick states to attack & doesn’t hav to win many
GP (614)
I don’t recall calling you any of those names, so there is no hypocrisy on my part.
As for Adams, you are right again – he is not really a journalist. He is a satirist. They operate by a different set of rules.
No 610
Many thanks. Perhaps you’d make a good member for Grayndler.
Ron,
I said she is a spunk.
think diogenosky is having problems with that , I mean Hillary already energised him and then along comes this looker with ticker
No 620
LOL Ron.
The Looker With Ticker Strikes Back.
Ron,
Diognese will have read a book about that.
well today i suggested any Democrat would still be a “non Bush” so I asked what pro arguments & policy did Obama bring to table…answer given was : not Bush There seems total disregard for what oiliness has been , is or what oiliness actualy stands for…would John Edwards hav received such dazzed suport
It will be interesting to see how Palin goes in the debates with Biden. They do debates a lot better over there than we do here, so she’d better be able to do more than just deliver a prepared speech and crack a few jokes.
Darn
as you may be aware , I’ve become an informal voter as not happy with either Party’s candidate in a debate Biden will hav a problem defending his ’stay th course policy to win’ on Iraq and th Lady will hav a problem discussing FA , none of these 4 on there ‘historys’ or there policys could ever get elected in ‘oz’ so there form of democracy accountability is different to ours My pref was Al Gore
Funny you should say that Ron. I’m a bit of a Gore man myself. I’m still a bit surprised that he didn’t have another go.
Anyway time for bed. G’night.
yep Al Gore had reel ‘left’ policys domesticaly incl universal healthcare , tax scales adj etc , supports Kyoto ratification , and had/has an even handed & detailed view on FA thats 100% reverse of Bush on FA policy & somewhat reverse to oiliness in specific areas , and with Al Gore a ’substance & outcomes politcan’ I would hav been posting for all bells ringing
nite Darn
Re: Philip Adams. I never read his columns, and frankly find him often a bit of an irritating, self-indulgent, and fey twit on LNL. But his considerable saving grace is the wide variety of guests he has on LNL, and the genuine opportunity he gives them for open and civil dialogue between opposing views. Compare and contrast to Janet A. or Piers A. No competition whatsoever. At least Phil has the decency to give those whose views are diametrically opposed to his a decent airing (eg Frank J. Gaffney, Jr, who has been given an honest hearing on LNL more than once). Can anybody name an instance of his ideological opponents doing the same?
I thought not.
Credit where it is due, folks. Adams is not just the left’s version of Albrechtsen or Ackerman. That is utterly disingenuous nonsense. Particularly from you, Adam of Canberra. Practise some of that hard honest realism your NSW right Labor faction claims to be famous for (though I would debate it being so). Adams is far more tolerant of opposing views than his (alleged) counterparts.
As for CC, Ross Garnaut, and the implications for Oz, this is one of the most sensible commentaries I have read in the MSM yet:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/time-to-aim-high-on-climate-change-20080909-4cyj.html
Gittins has my respect.
Let the fight begins. In must be the Spring Carnival, The Libs annual infighting has started in earnest.
In the red corner, Joe “Sunrise, sunset” Hockey vs Tony “people skill” Abbott:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/angry-voices-rising-as-nelsons-grip-weakens/2008/09/09/1220857547449.html
In the blue corner, the main bout and heading for round 15, Peter “nobody offers me a good job” Costello Vs John “nobody loves me anymore except Janet” Howard:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24320947-5001021,00.html
Meanwhile back at the ranch, the Dr. “NO” Nelson is dreaming and trying to engineer an early election in NSW. Maybe he thinks after he got kick out of the Federal Libs leadership, he can roll Barrell O’Farrell and becomes NSW Opp leader and has better chance of becoming the NSW Premier. Well, better than nothing.
611
Telstra’s claimed coverage for 3G is 98% of the population, not 99%.
Optus claims 85% and is aiming for 99%; the first number is disputed by Telstra and the second figure Telstra claims is unobtainable.
Telstra’s figures were independently auditted by government.
As for ‘no government intervention’ to achieve this, Telstra could not switch on 3G until they had fully met government criteria – thus the audit.
‘Fibre to the node’ is a different matter all together because it deals with broadband coverage, not mobile. I can get mobile (just) if I buy an antenna, attach it to the side of my house and leave my mobile in the one position (sort of contradicts the idea of ‘mobile’ but that’s how Telstra gets its figures – I do technically have mobile coverage). I cannot get broadband, full stop.
Moreover, fibre to the node is the only way I and many like me will get access to broadband.
(Disclosure: the above statement is based on personal discussion with the regional head of Telstra, who rang me during the Federal election).
Intrade 51.5-48.5 now for Obama. Another failed Democrat Diogenes.
From the Adelaide Advertiser this morning
-
“Nelson’s ‘number is up’ in leadership move for Turnbull
MARK KENNY, POLITICAL EDITOR, CANBERRA
September 10, 2008 12:30am
NUMBERS are now actively being counted inside the federal Liberal Party in preparation for a leadership change.
The revelation signals the end of Brendan Nelson’s troubled tenure and has significant implications for the Rudd Labor Government which is yet to be tested by an effective opposition.
The Advertiser has learned that a decisive block of right-wing votes, previously locked in behind Dr Nelson, has shifted to Malcolm Turnbull.
“No one inside the party doubts it will occur, it’s just a matter of when,” one MP said.
Dr Nelson won the leadership by three votes, 45 to 42 last December. Mr Turnbull, who is on leave in Europe, is not said to be involved in the push, with one well-placed supporter claiming he knew nothing about it.
Those advocating change are being careful not to make public comments that could derail the process.
The sensitive situation is made more complex by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Peter Costello.
The former treasurer launches his memoir next Tuesday and is under extreme pressure to declare his intentions at that time.
Senior figures say support for Mr Costello is still sufficient for him to take over but is fast evaporating as he refuses to show his hand. “It’s now or never for Peter,” one said. Leaving Mr Costello’s future options aside, the argument over the leadership has now boiled down to one of timing.
One senior figure said it was accepted that Mr Turnbull should be given a chance but added there was little point in “rushing in”.”
Not content with gouging chunks out of the Budget, Nelson now wants the government to increase spending via a one-off rise in the base pension rate, before the tax review is out next year.
Wreckers.
This is the same old “throw money at the loudest whingers” type of idea that got us into trouble under Howard.
I can think of plenty more deserving sectors out here in society that could do with a top-up. Is Rudd to give them all ad hoc rises?
As I said: Wreckers.
Bill,
As the pensioners chow down on the Pal risotto I am sure they will say cheers Bill for sticking up for principle.
ESJ [As the pensioners chow down on the Pal risotto ] – cooked or uncooked?
ESJ: The “dramas” and hardships for the pensioners just didn’t start under the current govt. Howard treated them like lthe family dog and did nothing but throw little treats to them when he wanted to get elected.
Crosby-Textor meaty bites .
Finns probably uncooked because they wont be able to afford electricity with the new ETS.
The Daily Terror is not happy. With a friend like that who needs enemy? How many times Tony Abbott has promised the Opp Leader job to Cossie lately. This man has to go down in Oz political history as the one with the least ticker. He should just take his 10 silvers from his book and fff-off. Johnnie, all is forgiven please come back.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24321017-5001030,00.html
WOW! Call off the election, it’s all over!
Dr ShowsOn do you actually understand US Politics? Its the trend my friend.
A heart-warming story in the SMH this morning of how the Howard government was always ready to look after the battler: Kerry Packer’s state funeral cost $73000. Actually, adding in the cost of flying in dozens of politicians and their minders, I am sure the real total was much higher. I wonder what the epitah should rad: “for services to tax-evasion”?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/kerry-packer-send-off-hits-nsw-taxpayers/2008/09/09/1220857547458.html
Do you actually understand that elections involve people voting, not betting?
I told you I haven’t finished my Ph.D. yet.
The natives on the G island are committing hara-kiri enmass:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-mckay/were-gonna-frickin-lose-t_b_124772.html
I tell them why “we’re going to lose this thing”
1. Picking the wrong POTUS candidate.
2. Picking the wrong VP candidate by the POTUS candidate.
You cannot expect to win with two strategic blunders. One is an accident, two is stupidity.
btw: this is rather weird: [This is it folks. If McCain takes power we fade and become Australia in the seventies: a backwoods country with occasional flashes of relevance. Except we've got a way bigger military and we're angrier. People will get hurt and we'll pay the bill for the bullets. I'm telling you, unless we wake up, we're gonna lose this frickin' thing]
What has this dude got against Australia? Australia in the 70s was exciting with Goughie in full flight.
McIntyre appointed as history maker *lol*. Under Howard we had history written by the winners. Now we are going to have history written by the losers.
When the notion of a national history curriculum was put in place by Howard I was stewing for two reasons. The first is that I had seen plenty of evidence of Howard’s view of history and I did not agree with very much of it at all. The second reason I was stewing is that it is no-one’s interests to have a single national view of history. Kids should be taught lots of histories in school and with a bit of luck they will conflict between classes, schools and school systems. The very best thing to come out of history teaching is arguments about history and this is something that a national curriculum mitigates against.
The history warriors who were well set under Howards are now screeching. Dopey bastards. They should have read their history. If they had absorbed and analysed Menzies’ desire and motivation for an Australian Academy of Art they would have realized that when control of state apparatus shifts to another party, then the thought police and the correctness minders swing into action to establish and defend a new set of ‘truths’.
Get rid of the national history curriculum. It is anti democratic, whomsoever happens to control the pen.
I know that pointing out the fallacies in Generic Person’s liberal policy plugs is something akin to hitting a straw man, but as an engineer I can’t allow 598 to pass:
“4. Infrastructure spending was extensive in the Howard years, particularly on roads. 20 billion plus Auslink 1 and Auslink 2, roads to recovery and so on.”
This is just not true, or at best misleading. Overall the Howard government reduced infrastructure spending a great deal in real terms. As a percentage of GDP we compared very poorly to most OECD countriues on this score, as Engineers australia pointed out several times. Given our large distances and high population growth rate the opposite should have been the case. Once again their idealogical belief that the private market would solve everything was proven false. I accept the worth of free markets, but like anybody else who has actually read Adam Smith, I know that transport infrastructure was one of the specific examples Smith cited as needing government spending for the public good.
After five years of real decline they did increase transport infrastructure spending in AusLink, though it was still only a catch up to previous levels of spending. Roads to Recovery merely compensated local governments for previous reductions in LGA grants; most Councils are still cash strapped. Even then, the Howard idealogical bent saw the focus on rural freight, with urban roads neglected and public transport excluded. That is why we see Sydney rail and Brisbane roads in such a parlous state. The only governments that increased infrastructure spending in real terms in the past ten years were WA and QLD State. See
http://epress.anu.edu.au/anzsog/imp/mobile_devices/ch05s02.html
Socrates, it got even sillier, the last time the coalition was in power in Queensland they introduced an infrastructure freeze throught the state.
(637)
“Finns probably uncooked because they wont be able to afford electricity with the new ETS”.
ESJ – Is that the same ETS you were lampooning Rudd over yesterday for not making the cost higher.
Steve
True enough; the coalition crowed about doing the Pacific Motorway in Qld but that was already a given and no other major decision was taken, despite a very rapid population growth rate. A lot of good infrastructure plannign adn delivery work is going on in SEQ now which is a credit to the State govt, but it will take them at least five years to catch up the backlog.
Yup Darn,
Bureacracy stuffs everything up. Just look at the GST.
ESJ
Obi’s going to win. It’s 50 states that vote and he’s got the numbers, as long as Michigan and Pennsylvania hold. Despite the Repug bounce, Florida is now a tie.
GG
Do FHM and Ralph count?
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