This fortnight’s Newspoll shows Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 56-44. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 62 per cent, while Brendan Nelson’s is up two to 16 per cent.
The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor retaining its 59-41 lead. Peter Costello is rated best person to lead the Liberals by 26 per cent against 13 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, 8 per cent for Julie Bishop and 7 per cent for Brendan Nelson. However, Kevin Rudd is preferred to Peter Costello head-to-head 53 per cent to 27 per cent.
916 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 12 13 [14] 15 16 … 19 » Show All
Diogenes,
Are you a doctor or a lawyer – that’s quite a qualification ” as long as Michigan and Pensylvannia hold” . Surely your more emphatic then that??
650,
Check out this map – http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory
The defaults on the map are based upon the 2004 results with any states inside a specified margin given as tossups. You can play around with it and see what comes up. It is possible to have a “draw” as it were; you need 270 to win and I’ve just played around with it and produced a result where both candidates got 269. If Dems get the west coast plus New Mexico and Hawaii, upper midwest, northeast from Penn. onwards (and all of those in solid blocks), even with Ohio and Florida, it is 269 all. [I'm counting Indiana and Ohio in the Rep. column, I used to live in Michigan and I know the rednecks who live in those two states]. The only other state I can see as a realistic outcome for the Dems. is Virginia. If the above fall their way + Virginia, they’ve got 282 which is enough. Have some fun playing around with this map
ESJ
They’ll hold. We’re out-registering the Repugs by a mile. And they can’t hide Palin for ever. Since when can politicians refuse to ever answer a question? The media and public are going to get sick of that pretty soon.
Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out-Register Republicans?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-madness-mccain-takes_n_125158.html
Julie (652)
Thanks for that info.
I read recently that if it is a tie the congress gets a casting vote – and at the moment the democrats control both houses. So a tie is probably good enough to see Obama through.
I think Oils is worried about Miss Sarah’s popularity and the fact he’s not the number one attraction anymore.
he’s even started trying to copy her style of talking by making statements like “put lipstick on a pig and it’s still a pig” in reply to he “lipstick on a pitdog” remark
He ain’t sounding like the great statesman/orator we are supposed to believe he is, more like a typical politition who is getting down slinging mud with the rest of them now the polls are closing.
should be “pitbull”
Gotta love the ABC’s even handed political reporting. Apparently, Rudd flagged an expansion of the Navy last night. So how does ABC local radio (891) report it?
- Opening sentence (paraphrased): The Liberals say the increase is in line with their defence policy.
- Followed by 2 sentences outlining what Rudd said last night
- Followed by interview with Nick Minchin
Yep that sounds like “Their ABC” alright
Vera
Pardon my ignorance, but which one of them is “Oils”?
I’m guessing it’s McCain
Hey check this out -
Unpublished New Obama Ad – 2008 Campaign “Had Enough?”
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=oElJy_eFeLk
Awesome YouTube piece about the US election done very well with background music by Crowded House, “Don’t Dream, it’s Over” ……..
654, thanks for reminding me of that, I should have remembered from my history classes growing up (dual citizen, so I get to vote in both countries), actually it would bloody serve the Reps. right if that happened, karmic payback for the 200 election
Darn Oils is the smooth tongued slippery one Oilbama
Ummm… Hockey attacks Abbott for his public comments on the polls. Says if Abbott likes it that much he should join the media as a commentator. Abbott says that Tip is the greatest PM that never was, yet. He also says that Nelson is the best there is. Lots of off the record ruminations on what a bastard Tip is for not tipping one way or another. Turnbull is o/s. Costello is o/s. Nelson says he is here for another two years.
The gutless ones are starting to eat each other.
Get this: Kelly said in the OO today that Rudd is Australia’s ‘only hope’.
Dio, from that article “interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology”
Sounds like some serious funny business going on from the pollsters
Dario
I noticed that too. At a time when an increasing percentage of voters are registered Democrats compared with Repugs, the odds of three consecutive polls reporting a higher sampling of Repugs is highly improbably by chance alone.
Anyway, it’s just improved the odds and it’s time for me to put a bet on.
Thanks Vera. I hadn’t caught up with that one yet.
I’ve been saying all year that Obama is a bad candidate and I’m being proved right (again). His lack of experience has usually been framed in terms of EXECUTIVE experience, but he also has no CAMPAIGNING experience, since he’s won all his races in IL essentially unopposed. This lack of experience is now coming home to roost. McCain is a seasoned campaigner and even Palin has won a hotly contested primary and election in AK. Obama is floundering, he reacts too slowly, his interviews are too wordy and meandering, he sounds like … like an academic lawyer, which is what he is. Now that McCain has the lead it will be very hard to overtake him. Iraq, which was the issue that gave Obama his edge over Clinton, has now lost its potency since most Amricans think the surge has succeeded. The economy works to Obama’s advantage, but people blame Bush for that, and McCain’s tactic of running as an independent seems to be working so far. Energy is a big plus for McCain and it’s the one field in which Palin speaks with real experience. So it’s all looking very bleak The One, who only a few months ago was halting the rise of the oceans and healing the planet. He will not win FL or OH, and I think he will fall behind in PA and MI. He will pick up NM and NH and maybe CO or NV but it won’t be enough. Another bad pick, Dems.
Unfortunately the world does not get to vote but this poll shows how out of step the Americans are with world opinion.
World wants Obama as president: poll
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/09/2360240.htm?section=world
So Adam, where were you when the 3 amigos was holding the fort at the Alamo against the 300 Oilyones. AWOL by the swaying palm trees of Hawaii?
Adam: I think the debates will be critical as to the eventual outcome!
I take your point that the Democrats know how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the names of Michael Dukakis and John Kerry come to mind!
He beat Hillary I seem to recall…
What’s up with your obsession with people’s qualifications?
Adam
I could point out that you also said that Hillary would beat Obama.
And Obama did manage to out-campaign Hillary in a very hotly contested primary which means that Hillary is an even worse campaigner than Obama and would surely have lost if picked, using your rationale.
True, but Hillary won more of the “swing states”.
Obama’s problem still is his inability to connect with working class white voters in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Putting Hillary on the ticket would have been a smart move, I can’t see Biden doing much at all for Obama in electoral terms.
Joke about her as much as we want, but Sarah Palin, until she is torn down, has been a plus for McCain.
Finns, I have no idea what that means.
Dario, he has no campaigning experience against the Republican attack machine. Clinton was campaigning with one hand behind her back. Even so she routed him in the later primaries when she got her “woman of the people” routine going.
We also haven’t seen any of Palin campaigning yet. She’s still not allowed to open her mouth. She must be REALLY terrible if they’ve still got a gag order on her.
Palin is a brilliant campaigner. Interviews with elite MSM is not campaigning. Speeches to hockey moms in Grand Falls is campaigning.
Seems to be doing ok so far. You may have written him off already but the polls don’t reflect that, despite McCain’s recent (and possibly dodgy) bounce.
Sounds like you are still pining over Hillary…
I’ve had this feeling all along that Americans are just not ready to elect a black man as president. They will give lots of other explanations as to why they didn’t but at the end of the day it will just be good old racism. I hope I am wrong.
Question: which overseas trip will win more votes?
* Obama’s Messiah impersonation in Berlin
* Palin’s visit to the troops in Kuwait
A no-brainer.
Well she hasn’t even spoken to the media yet and already made a huge gaffe in one of her ’speeches’. Didn’t know who ran Freddie Mac and Fannie May for goodness sake.
Niether I would think
670 Progressive,
Debates were critical in 1960
….. http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=zHGs4535W_o&feature=related
Don’t imagine that they will be any less important this election either
….
Adam 667,
Agree that Obama won’t take Florida. Probably won’t take Ohio but that is lineball and will depend on how big the African American turnout is. He will take Pennsylvania and Michigan. He doesn’t have to take Florida or Ohio though in order to map out a victory but must get Virginia if he doesn’t (assuming all of the other states fall into line as expected).
Yes of course I am pining for Clinton. I wanted a Dem president. Either Gore or Clinton would have hit McCain out of the park. But nooooo, the rich white elitists in Iowa had to show how postmodern they were by voting for the black guy. Well now they’ve got him and the result will be 4 more years of Repub rule.
The two most outstanding speeches at the Democratic Convention were given by Hillary, and Bill Clinton: that says it all!
Adam: I so hope you’re wrong, but I too have a nasty feeling in my bones that the Democrats have blown it again.
Adam
I wanted first Gore, then Edwards, then Clinton, but that didn’t happen so then I accepted Obama. I think its “suck it up” time. Democrats who attack Obama now are basically giving it to the Republicans, if thats what they want…
Progressive – [I so hope you’re wrong] – That is the trouble with the Obamabots, they just hope, hope and hope. No reality checks whatsoever.
Gee, let me guess who you supported…
Socrates: I liked Edwards too, but in retrospect it’s a good thing he didn’t get on the ticket(for obvious reasons).
Another problem with Obama: will the supposed huge turnout of young people and African Americans materialise on election day, and in the right places?
It’s no use getting a lot of new black voters in Georgia or Alabama, for example, but the Republicans still win these red states.
Dario: Hillary energised me far more than Obama(the speeches, I mean).
Joe Biden put me to sleep!
There’s a good article at Politico from Plouffe. The only “Kerry” state in danger is NH, but they are likely to hate Palin.
He says Iowa and New Mexico are in the bag. They need to add one of the following; Colorado, Indiana, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, or Nebraska. (I have no idea how they thing Nebraska is a possibility.)
McCain team aiming at pinching Pennsylvania or Michigan.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13283.html
689 Progressive, where they need to turn out the black vote in droves is Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virgina. No problems turning it out in Michigan
. I would say ramp up the efforts for voter registration in those places. Ohio is probably the most critical of those 4 though. You are correct in noting that with the US system, it doesn’t matter how many Dems votes you get in places like Texas, it just won’t matter …..
Obama winning Nebraska? I doubt it!
But the Democrats are running a good candidate in that state for the Senate.
Julie: well said, which is why you question the tactics of the Obama people, campaigning in states they won’t win seems to me a waste of resources that could be used in Ohio/Pennsylvania/Michigan etc.
McCain won’t pinch Michigan. Out of that short list, would suggest Virginia is the likely bet. I would put Florida in the same category as Texas, with all of the sunbirds down there, they haven’t got a hope to get that one.
I think William should run a competition on two items:
1. Date of next fed lib leadership change.
2. Name of new leader of the Opposition.
3. Name of the new deputy leader of the Opposition.
My punt:
1. 29 October
2. Turnbull
3. Bishop
We know one thing for sure: Captain Smirky won’t be riding in on his white charger to save the Libs.
It’s interesting how Nelson can pluck a popular policy out of the air at the drop of a hat (pensions) but on the more gritty questions of policy uses the “we’re not the government” excuse to hide the fact they don’t have a policy. Amazingly popularist is our Brendan.
At #697 Progressive wrote:
I’ve got to laugh at the right wing radio shock jocks, on million dollar salaries, championing the rights of poor, struggling pensioners!
Pages: « 1 … 12 13 [14] 15 16 … 19 » Show All