NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
602 Comments
But is this not out of date? Do we not have later figures showing Labor holding Riverton and losing Wanneroo?
The WAEC site is only updating Primaries, not its notional distribution.
On the basis of how the primaries are going you may be right. Wanneroo has firmed for Libs and vice versa for Riverton, unless green preferences are radically different to last time.
Considering that the area Riverton lost in the redistro was hardcore Labor, you would have thought the absentee votes would fall Labor (people in the Cannington area voting at Cannington booths like normal, but actually being in Riverton electorate)? Does that logically make sense?
I’ve updated the table now, creating a 2PP count arrived at by applying the ratio from the notional count to the new primary votes. It still has Labor behind in Riverton, by 11 rather than 32 votes.
So it is projecting the Libs winning Wanneroo and Riverton with Labor winning Albany and Forrestfield and most likely Collie-Preston. Seems a reasonable prediction.
the projection is Libs will win Forrestfield.
Notional 2PP pages say: THE NOTIONAL DISTRIBUTION RESULT IS INDICATIVE OF THE COUNT THAT WAS DONE ON POLLING DAY. THIS RESULT WILL NOT CHANGE UNTIL THE FULL DISTRIBUTION IS COMPLETED.
So I guess we’re flying blind with preferences on newly added votes.
Why is counting is WA so hard?
William,
Are you confident that the ALP can be ruled out in Morley, given the unpredictability of preference flows from D’Orazio voters?
We all have six fingers on each hand.
Sorry Average Joe, there was an error in that Forrestfield figure. Corrected now, Labor in front.
Sweet Forrestfield could still be a Lib gain.
Rats
if that projection ends up happening we could have government decided by 8 votes in Riverton
Forrestfield takes in quite a bit of Sheila McHales old Kenwick seat, which would account for the good Labor Vote, plus I think it covers the Federal Seat of Hasluck.
I’m not sure about my Wanneroo figures either.
If Labor wins 3 of these 5, does it get them to 28?
My problem with Wanneroo is that the notional preference distribution only has 14,592 votes, whereas there were about 17,600 polling booth votes.
So am I right in thinking 3 of the Independents are pro Libs which means Labor would only have a chance of support from the Kalgoolie bloke?
Lord D aren’t your forgetting about Morely, North West and Alfred Cove all 50-50?
Vera:
I believe that the Independent in Kwinana, Carol Adams, is also pro-Labor.
Glen,
North-West is clearly ALP
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/nort.htm
And Alfred Cove has definately been retained by Janet Woolard.
Morley is still the wildcard
Frank barely 60% has been counted there.
What we need from William is a list of definite gains form all the parties. Then work on the undecideds.
Glen, look at the notional 2PP from the WAEC, Vince is romping it in
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_North_West/notional_distribution_of_preferences.php
I still think Northwest looks strange, unless there’s been a large scale defection of Nats voters to Labor. Was there any dispute between the two conservative parties up there?
Unless every Nat voter there put Labor second against the HTV card then how can Labor have won?
North West is anybodies guess, Sweetman may yet pick up the seat or if the Nats overtake the Libs the Nats could win it.
What has happened in North West? The ABC are reporting there was a ‘data error’ there?!
Just on North West – i think Glen has a point.
I was just crunching some numbers on it… two interesting points.
First, the vote pre-today was only 60%. They have added about 4.5%…. the result has been to cut The ALP primary vote lead by nearly 1 ppt.
The notional 2pp result is old but lets use as a guide – it has ALP up about 4pt.
But given the rate at which the primary is changing that is not safe. All depends on what the makeup of that last 35 percent is.
Second point, at the moment the Libs lead the nats by only couple hundred votes.
Apparently the preferencing from nats to libs is not as strong as normal… but what if nats finish above libs… the libs preferencing to nats will be very very strong…. under that scenario nats me even get the seat
There’d have to be a very big swing to Steve Thomas on what remains for Mick Murray to lose Collie-Preston.
If William’s estimated figures prove accurate, Riverton is going to a recount.
Albany and Forrestfield looking OK for Labor at this stage, Wanneroo probably less so. And who knows what will happen in Morley.
At this early stage, I may have to revise my figures upwards to 28 seats for Labor…that would make a Liberal minority government rather too unstable for my liking.
Grylls could well be adding another MP to his team 10pse as you have correctly noted. If the Nats arent preferences the Libs, the Libs surely will have the Nats as their 1st preference and hence the Nats would easily gain the seat.
Alfred Cove will be won by Woolard if the greens directed to her. If the Greens directed to Labor, they’ll overtake her and her prefs will decide the winner (I assume most would be directed to the Liberals).
Nedlands looks the same, although the Libs have a higher primary vote here and could probably fall over the line on leaked prefs even if the Greens directed to Walker.
On election night Stephen Smith said Labor was getting nearly half of the Nat preferences in North West. If that is the case, once you add in most of the Greens, votes Labor will be a over 50%.
The Greens didnt direct to Woollard and their voters would be less likely to back her than the ALP even if they were told to. Simply if Woollard falls behind the ALP she’s done. But regardless the result the seat will assist Barnett form Government.
I was scrutineering on the night in a safe Laborl seat. Basically, the WAEC’s staff are completely under-prepared. For instance, the primary vote in my booth changed 4 times and the booth staff were unsure about how to allocate preferences. At my booth, six Liberal votes were found in the Labor pile which is a bit worrying. Fortunately, at that point, the booth manager agreed to restart the entire count when myself and the other scrutineer became increasingly concerned about confusion. Other scrutineers have reported similar instances.
Also, the WAEC appear unable/unprepared to deal with independents not doing as well as they though, namely, in Nedlands, where Walker was being distributed when in fact, Labor was coming second (which explains the early panic that Nedlands had been retained by the independent). I imagine similar messes are occuring in North West, Wanneroo etc. thereby slowing the count.
“regardless the result the seat will assist Barnett form Government”
Hmm.. I’m sure Barnett wants every seat he can get to give him greater leaverage in negotiations with the Nats, and greater stability in any possible government. And has Wollard pledged to support him anyway?
On North West
Just 64.39% has been counted, thus we have still a third of the count to come and the Nats are only 276 votes behind the Liberals, if they overtake them Grylls will have another bargaining chip to add to the table and Labor one less seat.
The Nats could well gain this seat.
36
MDMConnell – yes.
35 – I was scrutineering also at a marginal booth where 300 votes went ‘missing’. Turns out it was a miscount. The counters were more concerned abouit their pizza going cold than an actual result. Worrying
10pse @ 29, in the last 35% of votes – say 50% of those are Lib/Nat, so 17.5% of the total North West votes – you expect a +10% swing to the Nats?
The Greens did direct their preferences on their HTV to Wollard.
http://greens-wa.net/sites/default/files/STATE%20HTV%202008%20web.pdf
same goes for Glen @ 37
Well, at the very least whoever forms government should set up a committee review into the entire election process, with members from every party represented in parliament. The vote count screw ups on election night was a joke.
I stand corrected Peter, but will they actually do what they are told?
Will they naturally select the ALP second rather than the HTVs suggestion.
Alfred Cove is 50-50 in my books.
The Greens directing preferences to Independents shows that their politics is more about personality and retribution and completely lacks long term vision. They are way off-course if they seek to be a party of genuine influence.
the vote counting on election night was ridiculous. Blind freddy would have been able to tell that there wasn’t going to be a 26% swing in a seat like Cannington. Yet that was reported and commented on.
The unpreparedness of the WAEC was because the election was six months early, DUH. They can’t keep thousands of people on election standby for the whole parliamentary term. The solution to this is fixed terms, which is ALP policy and already in place in NSW and Vic.
I dont think we can rule Morley out for Labor yet, those voting for D’Orazio on absentee and postal votes wont have had a how to vote card where many people who voted at the booths just followed his card that gave preferences to the Libs. Surely a good portion of the non booth voters gave their preference to Labor.
But in any case, its looking much better for Labor to form a minority government with 28 seats with the 2 Labor leaning independents.
I’m confident Labor will win Collie-Preston, Forrestfield and Albany and will lose Wanneroo. Riverton is going to make or break the Labor Party. If they win that, I think they will hold on to government.
Jacob,
I agree with your view on Morley. I am confused as to why William appears to have ruled out an ALP victory in Morley.
The postals and prepolls will assist him thats why.
nick, i dont understand ur question. sorry
Fixed terms here in SA as well!
Scott, quite so.
10pse, for the Nats to achieve a 2% swing overall and overtake the Libs, means a +10% swing in the remaining roughly 2700 votes that (we can assume) will go to either Libs or Nats…
That’s actually out to a 3% swing they’d need now anyway…
Sorry Glen, the postals and pre-polls will assist who in Morley?
The Liberals, as they have done in every election. As William has pointed out.
More than enough to hold this gain.
I suspect Cautious and Sniff put everything on the table for the chance to govern again today.
ah that makes more sense…
you may be right… they may not make up the 200 votes to overtake… equally the Libs may not close the gap to Labor even if they stay ahead of the Nats… I was just pointing out that North West is not as certain as people think. Particularly as the 2pp notional on the website is not necessarily right anyway…. seems very odd distribution of preferences. but we will all see in the days ahead
Glen,
That’s true, but we still don’t know what proportion of pre-polls and postals will go to D’Orazio, and whether those that do will ultimately flow to Whitby or Britza.
Does anyone know who Lex Fullarton would have preferenced on HTVs?
Who are Cautious and Sniff?
The Media Terms for Barnett (Cautious) and Buswell(Sniff)
Colin and Troy
Glen, thus far that is not the case. Whitby already has a lead on the postals and the preferences from the other candidates cannot be accurately predicted at this stage. Also, it would be prudent to remember there are 17% electors from maylands and 19% from yokine in Morley now, the absentee votes from these typically Labor seats may well flow heavily to Whitby
Anyway, I guess my point is if Fullarton voters preference Labor or Greens, Nat preferences are barely required anyway if at all, and even 100% of them couldn’t give the Libs a win in North West…
wow what a mess
Will Grylls be premier?
why not..anything seesm possible
one other interesting point – i dont see why people are so confident labor will retain albany.
on the notional 2pp the lead pre today was 117 votes (0.35%).
and prefs were running about 60/40 to Libs.
based on today’s count, despite higher total vote, the primary lead is marginally smaller…. once preferences are factored in, if u assume a similar ratio to that on election night the albany lead would be down to about 85-90 votes.
And as I noted before, the Bulk of the old Ballajura which included D’Orazio’s powerbase of support and Branches have now moved to West Swan.
Vitap. I agree, even though I think its still likely the Libs will win Morley, I still consider Labor a half decent chance, especially the D’Orazio voters who werent able to have a HTV card when voting by absentee at nearby booths. Most would flow to Labor.
Looking at that, if Labor does get up in Morley they’ll win government?
having said that, if Morley does fall liberal its Libs/Nats by 1 seat, and about 10 votes. Literally the skin of their teeth.
why no predictions on Collie-Preston?
Average Joe,
No, William’s analysis at the top of the page assumes a Liberal victory in Morley. So, if the Liberals do win Morley then the ALP needs four out of the five listed in this post.
If the ALP wins Morley then the ALP needs three out of the five on this page.
The absentee line at the Venville Centre, Maylands was out the door. Very quick for Maylands voters – no queue.
I wonder how big the absentee vote was in areas where the Targa West Rally took place ?
I think some of the comments re the WAEC here are unfair. In Nedlands, the WAEC – like the AEC in Federal elections – makes a guess about which 2 candidates will be the final two. They then do a preliminary 2PP distribution based on this. If this turns out to be incorrect, it is not their fault that what everyone expected to happen didn’t happen.
Someone else commented that WAEC were basically responsible for comments made by TV presenters which are conclusions. The WAEC provides the figures and the commentators use them.
THe ABC computer and dare I say it, Saint Antony of the Split Booth, for having a programme that was way too early to call some of these seats. At times, it was like watching Florida in 2000. They were calling seats too early in the call.
I was listening on radio and following on the net and the WAEC figures were way ahead of the ABC figures at all times. Usually they are very similar but not on Saturday.
It seems as though we all expect elections to be counted straight away. The Federal election result was clear on the night but the counting was not until 10 days later. This is the same here. All the booth votes are counted on the night, but the 1000s of non-booth votes are counted later. It is only because the election is so close that now (less than 2 days after voting ended) we think that there is something wrong with the process.
Just on Collie Preston – the trend on primaries suggests this one is closing up too.
The notional 2pp pre today was about 460 vote lead.
Based on changes in 2pp percentages that could already be down to about 375
sorry, re 77, i meant based on changes in primary percentages today not 2pp percentages today
William, in your post you mentioned late-count surprises. News.com.au is reporting that Stephen Smith (who apparently as Foreign Affairs Minister has plenty of time on his hands) has uncovered an error in the WAEC’s data in North-West which would put that seat back in Labor’s hands
…and now I’ve actually read the whole thread I see it’s been mentioned several times already
From, “The World Today”,
Kim Beazley, Kerry Chikarovsky and Hugh Mackay discuss a week in politics that saw the Federal Liberal Party almost losing a safe seat in a by-election; the Nationals losing one, and looking at their future; Labor on the nose in the WA state poll; and the implosion of the NSW Labor Government.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2358283.htm
Bomber is pessimistic. Down with Corpse.
Why post the same things on both threads? Keep this one for discussion of the actual results themselves!
The Electoral Commissioner says the North West turnaround was not an “error in the data” – it was one late-reporting booth that turned the result around. Though I concur with those who suggest it’s conceivable the Nationals could beat Labor on preferences if they get ahead of the Liberals, unless those with knowledge of the preference count know better.
Bomber wasn’t he actually said on Saturday night that Carps should make a deal and give him what he wants (Mr Lisp).
Stephen Smith doesn’t sleep
Speaking of Booth results, here are the Morley ones FWIW.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Morley/polling_place_results.php
There was a big absent vote in Cannington at Seven Oaks – they ran out of envelopes at about 1pm. I can only assume that would be riverton and belmont voters.
how does seven oaks normally go as far as voting trends AJ?
There still seem to be a substantial number of seats that could change hands depending on how strong Greens preferences flow to Labor. This is how I see it:
Pilbara: An outside chance, but if the Nationals stay ahead of the Liberals, which is quite possible, and receive 50% of Greens preferences, they may well be able to snatch the seat. An open Greens ticket should help them.
Wanneroo: Liberal party should win this one after postals etc.
Southern River: Almost certainly a Liberal win
Riverton: Hangs in the balance. Liberal party by the skin of their teeth.
North-West: If the Nationals overtake the Libertals (needing about 140 votes to go their way) they should get elected on the back of Liberal preferences. Will depend on how independent preferences are directed.
Morley: Liberals are ahead on D’Orazio preferences, but hey, anything could happen. Except the Godfather winning.
Jandakot: A Liberal win almost certainly
Forrestfield: A close one, Labor might just beable to stay ahead
Eyre: Could in theory fall the Nationals way, but the Liberal primary vote is almost certainly too high
Collie-Preston: One for the ALP I think
Nedlands: Despite the strong Libs vote, Walker’s still in the hunt. If enough Green and minor party preferences leak to her, she can stay ahead of Labor and win the seat. I must say I hope she does – the Libs are desperately in need of lawyers.
Alfred Cove: Greens preferences will probably flow strongly to Woollard and keep her ahead of the Labor candidate, meaning we shall have to put up with her for another term. Hopefully she won’t become speaker…
Seven Oaks i think is normally about 60/40. I voted there because its near Carousel and you can only assume a few other people did too.
Hi all,
This is very, very interesting. I do believe that this whichever way things fall, it will be the first minority Government in WA history (at least since the two-party system firmed up).
Quite frankly, I’m not sure I’d want the Premier’s seat right now.
If I was Barnett, I’d take the pats on the back for achieving the nearly-impossible, start thinking, and realise that even with Nat support, governing is difficult. ABC projects 19 + 1 “in doubt” (Albany, which they will probably lose) + 3 Indie (Constable, Woollard and Walker) + 3 “Libs ahead” (Morley, Riverton and Southern River) makes 26. Add the Nats 4 and this becomes 30 – with much stretching. But even this number is high, because Albany is, ATM, significantly ALP in front, and while Woollard and Constable can probably be relied on the vote Lib on the floor, Walker is a question-mark due to the circumstances under which she left the party. Even assuming that Diane Guise becomes a casualty in Wanneroo (higly likely), this still leaves a Premier Barnett scrabbling for votes. Add to this the twin facts that he wants to retire and that he, personally, does not get along with the National Party (remember the Court Government, anyone?), and you have the makings of a very unpleasant (and probably very short) Premiership, ended by an equally unpleasant confidence vote.
On the other side of the equation, there’s no questioning that Carps is now badly damaged goods. If he had a gram of sense, he’d resign as leader, resign his seat, and recommend to the ALP that they clean out their frontbench – Ripper, McGinty, Logan and Roberts in particular, but certainly the others aren’t far behind. Even if the ALP keeps all 25 of “their” seats that the ABC calculator gives them, and adds the 4 seats in which they are presently in front (not good, as Guise is unlikely to survive in Wanneroo, and Adams will probably win Kwinana), that still leaves them begging for Indie votes on the floor, or Nats support. Given the likely losses of Wanneroo and Kwinana, that leaves the ALP with 27 seats, and reliant on either 3 indies or the Nats. Not a comfy situation, and not one which I think Ripper (for example) will be able to handle, given the 8 years of absolute majorities they’ve enjoyed.
Further, given the likely downturn of the WA economy, it is a bad time to be in government (and hence accountable for the problems), esp. when the real economic power is in Rudd’s hands in Canberra.
one thing for sure, is we are left with Riverton deciding the outcome we won’t know for about 2 weeks as to who has won.
i think if walker did win she would be fine for the libs she is good friends with colin and she will demand and proably get attorney general then christan might end up as education minister or even take sniff’s job
southernboy #94
Perhaps – all I’m saying is that she’d have to be tempted to play hardball with the Libs after all that’s happened.
yes she would play hardball and she would get what she wants attonery general
Sniff will be treasurer in a Lib administration, he’s competent at what he does, he just likes a whiff now and again. Walker wont win and i dunno if she’ll back Colin when he’s put Sniff in such an important role.
The way to stop this is make Sniff leave the room first.
New Antony Green updated…..Kwinana – ALP to retain!!
Glen: surely even a proud conservative as yourself would concede Troy Buswell shouldn’t be in anyone’s cabinet! His behaviour disqualifies him from any sort of high office(and I’d say the same if he was a Labor Party member).
a kwinana banana eh?
Oh cmon, the guy needs to tone down his behavior true enough but at least he’s not corrupt?
Look if that’s the worst Sniff has done fine he’s paid the price, and he’s lost his job as leader. Give Sniff the benefit of the doubt.
Glen: I call blatant acts of sexual harrassment more than just a nuisance!
It doesn’t say much for Mr Buswell’s constituents that they reelected him on Saturday!
He actually got a swing to him in Vasse.
So Bowler is in Burke’s pocket, not worthy of being in Parliament etc etc as far as the Liberals are concerned, yet they go cap in hand to him like starving mendicants when the need his vote, and are prepared to offer him the speakership no less.
There are the Liberals for you all to see, ladies and gentlemen, arses bared.
#104
No worse than Labor, expelling him from the party and now I’m sure frantically courting him…..
Does any body have any info re Morley. Morley like many seats on the night that had strong independents was a shamozzle because local WAEC staff has to guess at which 2 candidates would be 1 and 2. I hear some booths went Whitby and britza while some may have gone Whitby dorazio. This would totally throw out the 2pp vote. the WAEC site has got bugger all data out there on Morley. Any scrutineers willing to update us!
Maybe his electorate is full of pooners?
To Mathew Cole – whilst you’re right that this will be the first official minority government since the 1910s, technically the last few months of Carmen Lawrence’s tenure can also be classed as one after the resignations of Frank Donovan et al.
At the time I distinctly remember the possibility at one point that the government could have fallen on a confidence vote.
Nothing technical about it, Talkon – Carmen Lawrence led a minority government for the last two years of her premiership.
Talkon #108, WB #109:
Looks like I need an education in history. Oops. Still, given that when I was 12 I was hardly like to be interested in politics, the point remains – it can be unstable to have minority governments.
I’m thinking ALP 23 seats + Collie-Preston, Kwinana, Forrestfield and Albany = 27.
For the Liberals its 23 + Riverton and Wanneroo = 25
4 Nationals and 3 Independents (2 of which are conservative, 1 labor)
Overall
Labor side = 28
Liberals side = 27
Therefore, Nationals are crucial. I highly doubt Labor will be able to govern just with the support of independents.
111
on those numbers, your grace, it looks hardly stable for both of em.
Another election in 12 months?
just looking at the news today, and they have a heap of people counting upper house votes. You’d think the first priority would be to sort out who has won the election.
ShowsOn #113
I give it 6. This situation is inherently unstable.
Ch 10 WA News had Labor ahead in Wanneroo, Albany and Forrestfield and the Libs ahead in Morely and Riverton.
Glen #116:
However, Labor’s margin in Wanneroo is paper-thin, and probably won’t stand up to the postal/absentee votes.
Morely
FFS it’s MORLEY !!, It’s bad enough when Eastern Sataters who come to Perth for our Telethon pronounce Mandurah an Man Doo Rah.
FC #118:
Cool it. Just because Glen talks funny is no reason to blow a gasket….
I think Frank is just upset the ALP are behind in M O R L E Y.
Glen #120:
Don’t start. When people are blowing up, pouring petrol in the vicinity is generall considered to be foolish (and expensive, with the current prices of the stuff
)
No it’s because despite everyone else, includin other non WA people spelling it correctly, you STILL get it wrong
It’s like people who spell Labor as Labour – it’s a pet peeve of mine.
Is Kwinana now being given to ALP ? If so then could Labor make 29 seats if it got Morley(spelt correctly)
Frank i have lived in WA, i made a mistake big deal. Have i ever wrote Labour instead of Labor?? No. Give me abreak.
Predictions
LIB
Riverton
Wanneroo
Morley
ALP
Collie-Preston
Albany
Forrestfield
Glen #124,
If, as looks likely, Kwinana can be added to these, then things are still as clear as mud. I believe that it adds up to 28 ALP, 24 Lib, 4 Nat and 3 Ind, at least two of whom are prepared to support a Barnett Government.
Yuck.
William, the 2PP count on the WAEC site for Wanneroo is not all booths. It does not include the Crossways Uniting Chuch booth in Wanneroo, which voted 50% in 2005. That means the figure is probably worse for Labor than is being reported.
Are people claiming Kwinana on the basis of Antony’s website, which I presume is an estimate/prediction? Or is there other real data that people are using?
#126, If that is true Wanneroo must go into the probable Liberal column.
Also North West could be close one, if the Nats overtake the Libs, but from all accounts Labor will probably win it.
Also Alfred Cove could push them to 25 seats with Liz Constable and 4 Nats = 30 and a majority. I wonder if Woollard will hold on, nevertheless the Libs would love to have that seat back.
Glen give it up you are boring us.
The Libs Can NOT form a legitimate government they have won less seats than Labor and will need support from not only the Nats but a bunch of independents.
Please stock up on Kleenex, looks like your lot will be out for yet another 4 Years.
LaborVoter stop trolling.
I admire your loyalty LaborVoter but I think the balance of probability is still that Lib+Nat+Constable+Woollard=30, and we are out. It’s not a done deal yet but we will need all the breaks in the late counting.
LV #130, you are kidding yourself if you think:
1. a minority Liberal government isn’t a material prospect at the moment;
2. it will be 4 years before another election is held to clean this mess up.
I see Carol Adams is ahead in Kwinana:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/kwin.htm
I wouldnt be surprised if Adams stayed ‘independent’ and thus backed the Barnett government on supply.
It’s not trolling it’s a matter of FACT.
FACT 1: Labor has won the most seats therefore can quite rightly claim to be the legitimate winner of the election
FACT 2: The Liberals can’t form a government without all the Nats and almost all the Independents
FACT 3: A Liberal/National/Independent government would be about as stable as a stack of cards in a cyclone.
The media has had it’s big anti-Labor rant, the Federal Libs have had their usual cry but when all the votes are counted and the chips are down and it comes down to the REALITY of the situation, LABOR HAS THE MOST SEATS and is the only acceptable stable government possible.
You Lib/Nats/Independents/Duct-tape coalition supporters are providing quality giggles tho I must admit.
Carps may try with a Brian Burke associated MP Bowler and an angry disendorsed ALP independent but they would lose a motion of no confidence with Woollard and Constable + 24 Libs and 4 Nats and thus the Governor would call on Barnett to form a new Government.
Enjoy the next 4 years LaborVoter.
Honestly LV, do you think an ALP/Nats/Bowler/Adams minority government would be any less unstable?
So it looks like Riverton is the key? If ALP wins, then they govern in their own right (with Labor independents). Unfortunately, I think this is over 50% likely that ALP will win Riverton.
(Unless the Nats overtake the Libs in North West – in which case it’s back to the Nats deciding government)
I think the WAEC is being silly not to put a progressive notional total for the each of the seats.
GLen # 135 – yes she could be a wild card if you judge her by her comments on the news. Would she really be disgruntled enough to help the Liberals? Unlikely I think.
I can’t recall which channel this was on, but she said: “they (Labor) had their chance twice” (That’s obviously about her rejected preselection)
CH10 and she said she was essentially happy of the election result. Adams while not naturally willing to back the Libs will be even less inclined to back the ALP after their ‘Karl Rove’ job on her during the campaign.
If she’s willing to put the Libs in out of personal spite at not being preselected that proves that Labor was right not to preselect her.
Just saw Grylls on the 7.30 Report. He stated he does not want a ministry, so it looks like Barnett’s bribe of deputy premier has been rejected.
Carpenter was on as well saying he had “informal” talks with Grylls about a coalition months ago.
In theory yes. But she is one unhappy lady, and it appears she was rejected twice for preselection. Me Tinks she is holding one major grudge.
Adam in Canberra # 142, with all due respect that argument is rather ‘circular’!
That’s always been Grylls stance on any deal.
Good God Frank, you near sent the place into meltdown with that comment.
So for whats it worth… i have done some extrapolation using:
1. the primaries as of start of today
2. the notional 2pp from end of day saturday (to get preference ratio)
3. the updated primaries
4. votes left to count…
… and here are my predictions:
Labor hold North West relatively clearly.
Labor hold Collie but margin halves.
Liberal win Forrestfield just
Liberal win Albany a little more easily
Liberal win Wanneroo fairly easily (several hundred votes)
Liberal win Morley (several hundred votes)
Riverton too close to call.
By my calcs that leaves 27 Labor plus Labor Inds, 27 Lib plus Lib Inds, 4 Nats, and Riverton.
If this holds true Riverton won’t matter.
Nor do the results in Kwinana and Alfred Cove.
Libs win Albany easily?
Albany will be won by Labor
I can feel a Court of Disputed Returns coming on…
Labor should reject Mr Grylls. Let the Libs form a coalition with him. Doing so would provide them with the ability to be reelected.
The economy is turning downwards and governing in this climate is going to be difficult and it is possible the electorate may punish labor heavily next time as a result. The upper house will also be a nuisance if they govern so i believe they should let the libs form a alliance.
If Australia needed more evidence that the electoral system is in dire need of reform, they got it on Saturday.
Back on topic – I’m putting my money on a Labor/Nat alliance putting them just on or over 30 seats, so they can tell that idiot Independent who wanted the Police Ministry to stuff herself.
152 And what sort of a brilliant effort is four seats anyway? It only means anything because of the inability of the others to govern in their own right, but really four seats out of 59 is not that outstanding of itself.
John Bowler won Kalgoorlie largely because he discovered independence and “royalties for regions” which he previously bagged as a Labor Minister.
The disturbing thing about Bowler’s success is the influence Graeme Campbell has over him (heaps) plus Julian Grill.
Let Bowler comment on this forum that he is free from either G Campbell (right wing nutter) or J Grill pulling his strings.
Ummm, isn’t this all over now that Barnett has agreed to Regional Rorts?
WEST Australian Opposition Leader Colin Barnett says he now supports the Nationals’ “royalties for regions” plan as a condition of an agreement to help the Liberals form a minority government.
Colin Barnett backs Nationals’ regional plan
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24312594-601,00.html
Let the Libs make the necessary savings to ensure Grylls is satisfied. Labor needs some time for reflection, to think over their policies and their relationships with people. The corruption report is coming and this will create more probs for labor so it would be best i think to let the libs have it and watch people like Barnett and his pathetic treasurer fight over the positions of power.
As i said the upper house will be like the Senate, a destuctive nuisance.
re post 155
so much for principle !!!
Exactly marky marky, it would be a Pyrrhic victory if Labor “won” under such conditions.
Colin Barnett- WA’s NEW PREMIER
re post 148
labor has won Albany (I think)
most of the rest is right
but I would be very uncertain of Riverton and
Forrestfield
so ALP 28 plus 2 is still possible… but probably unlikely
Oz # 153, the electoral system was “reformed” apparently under McGinty’s One Vote One Value!
Sue Walker lost her own seat! She deserves it for turning her back on the Liberal Party and becoming an Independent. I am enjoying this!
Colin Barnett- WA’s NEW PREMIER
Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, or those words will come back and haunt you
She was trying to have a cat fight with Julie Bishop as well in the election coverage and Kerry O’Brien had to break it up!
Or perhaps Gryll’s “joint premiers” is possible?
On the 7.30 report Alan Carpenter looked like a man who reckons he might stay as premier. I didn’t know he had spoken to Grylls several months ago about the possibility of the ALP & the Nats forming a loose coalition. Obviously they get on very well personally and at the time the idea was not discounted out of hand by either of them. This is not insignifcant.
I also wasn’t aware of the bad blood between Grylls & Barnett, not helped by the Libs spurning a preference deal with the Nats. How dumb is Barnett, effectively showing contempt for the Nats before the election. It has ever been thus and the Nats usually just cop it. Grylls won’t. Clearly, on a persoanl lebel, Grylls likes Carpenter and dislikes Barnett. This is also not insignificant.
If Grylls had his way I reckon he’d go with Carpenter, but he has to convince the other 3 National MPs. He clearly intimated this in the interview with Kerry O’Brien tonight. It could be a tough ask.
The real sleeper in predicting what may happen in WA is the result in Lyne. Bananaby Joyce is right, unless the Nats go it alone and rebrand themselves then they’re doomed. Going with the ALP would be gutsy and daring, but it would certainly rebrand them. Especially if the money started flowing in Nat seats.
Is Grylls talking to Joyce? If so he might spring a surprise. Grylls is of Joyce’s generation and not Warren Truss’. Old ideological boundaries might yet be replaced with political pragmatism.
Sceptic, live up to your name, Barnaby Joyce has just been baptised as a born again Pineapple Party member and he is expecting us to believe that he wants the Nationals to become a separate party from the Liberals? Some things are just unbelievable and too silly for words.
Joyce visited the Goldfields to support Grylls. They are very close.
Liberal MP Barry Haase famously described Barnaby Joyce as “Barnaby Joke”.
Thought it was stupid of Stephen Smith to call the election for the Libs on Sat night, with so many seats in doubt. Reminded me of the US networks and how they want to be the first to call it. See that he has changed his tune today. Should have shut up in the first place
Give him a break Andrew, it was his assessment, not his desire!
Andrew @ 170
To be honest, I can’t really blame him. I mean, everyone was just stunned at how much of the vote was going against Labor at the time, and with the results that were trickling in, I can see why Smith would have called it for the Libs.
It’s only been in the last 36 hours that more information has come to light and that it’s much closer than *anyone* thought possible (to the point of the Nationals now potentially holding the fate of the majors in their hands).
I keep saying it, but interesting times ahead for everyone, me thinks!
One thing surprised me about Grylls and that is his intelligence. He seems to have more intelligence than a host of New South Wales Labor Mp’s. He also has principles and respect for the people who elected him. This is contrary to many Labor Mp’s these days who go and privatise and stick it to the working classes when they get elected. He is no Hansen, Truss, Sinclair and Vaile.
There are just as many assessments of various kinds being made here and they won’t all be right.
those who keep saying labor will win albany… can i ask why…
they led by only 117 on the notional 2pp…
and the primaries are trending against them
Joyce at least did not vote for the media laws to change and the student services funding in Universities to be axed it is done by a pollie who got in with Labor preferences.
From memory, Smith always said the ‘balance of probabilites’ favours a Liberal government.
And that’s still the case. Even if North West moving back into the Labor column makes the prospects of a third term slightly rosier.
andrew @170
Smith might’ve believed the ABC headlines at 11.30pm Saturday night
‘Labor loses power in nail-biting WA vote’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/06/2357436.htm?section=justin
Diogenes link at 156 makes a couple of interesting points too. Grylls said he will make a decision on Sunday most probably about who the Nats would support. He also said:
As I predicted, Barnett has accepted the Royalties for Regions proposal. I’m convinced there is sufficient funding for it anyway, unless the budget papers are fabricating the $2 billion surplus.
That aside, it is really quite irritating that the Nationals cannot make up their goddamn minds on whether they wish to be in coalition with the Liberals. Every state varies and often they sever and rebuild ties every few years. Stupid. A merger must surely be the most logical solution.
This election has basically resulted in an absolute mess. Neither major party will be able to govern effectively with so many crossbenchers.
No 156
It is hardly a “rort” to seek more funding for regional areas. Western Australia is not solely made up of Perth.
Goldfielder #169.
Spot on. Joyce helped Grylls with his campaigning. Observing Grylls’ demeanour towards the Libs it certainly has the trademark of Barnaby Joyce’s attitude. I have no doubt the two are talking about what is happening now and the pros and cons of supporting either side.
Joyce is banging on about the Nats breaking from coalition with the Libs, along with severing other connections the two parties have. Clearly this attitude is causing Grylls to consider his position, you can see it in his demeanour. He’s not keen in joining forces with the Libs at all.
For me the revealing comment was made by Barnett today. The decision to reject the Nats cut of Roylaties for Regions is not good policy but the election result changes everything. This is obvious, but Barnett didn’t finesse his words and I thought he might have. Admirable in its honesty but not particularly diplomatic.
The problem Grylls probably has is that his fellow Nat MPs probably dislike the ALP intensely and the thought of going into coalition with them is unpalatable. But it is not certain that the unthinkable won’t happen. I’m keeping an open mind.
No 183
The question is how do you explain to your base (which typically expects a notional coalition with the Liberal Party) that you are joining forces with Labor? It is absurd and unsustainable. If Grylls coalesces with Corpse, the Nats will be on the verge of oblivion at the next election.
“I’m keeping an open mind.”
Sceptic that’s not your unmatched bet on the Liberals at Betfair is it?
“the Nats will be on the verge of oblivion at the next election.”
GP, so where’s the problem?
No 184
On the other hand how can the Nats keep their credibility when the Liberal leader derided their main economic policy (Royalties for Regions) as a stunt. That was totally contemptuous.
The Nats branded themselves as being “independent”. If they join with the Libs they reinforce their image of being the poor relation of the Liberal party. No rebranding there.
I take your point about the Nats antagonising their base. But there is a flip argument as well. I reckon it will be fascinating to see what happens.
I have read all the comments with interest since the WA election. I’ve only been oin that state for a total of three days in my life, so am hardly qualified to reach political conclusions.
But a few thoughts…
If the Nats DON’T go into a power-sharing arrangement with Labor, and Labor does a deal with independents, then the Nats have blown their best chance ever in WA, and will shrink back into irrelevance. I think Grylls understands that, and, while much of his party may be philosophically inclined towards the Libs, he knows that a deal with the Libs may still not get influence for the Nats, until there’s further successful wheeling/dealing between the Libs and independents. My gut eeling is that the Nats will go with Labor if it guarantees stable government and the fulfilment of the Nats wish list.
The role of Karlene Maywald should not be underestimated. Grylls regards her as a hero, and is talking to her daily. I suspect she’s advising him to go with Labor – the SA experience shows Nats can get a fair bit of what they want by offering Labor a minority but stable government.
How good a dealmaker is Barnett? After all, he wanted to retire at this election. I doubt he would have thought through post-election scenarios in the same depth as Carpenter, who has revealed he had a chat to Grylls some months ago.
As others have pointed out, Carpenter can go into negotiations with the independents and the Nats arguing that Labor has won more seats than the libs, thus there’s a bit of a moral argument that they should back a Labor Government if both major parties agree to their wish lists.
On the other hand, what ELSE do the Nats want, apart from the regional slush fund? They certainly support uranium mining – could this issue persuade them to go with the Libs? Or could Carpenter about-face on uranium mining in order to grovel to the Nats?
And another point – could Lib/Nats actually provide the strongest, most stable government, because they could command a majority in BOTH houses (is that right? I dunno anything about the WA Upper House, but I read that it’s heading for a conservative majority)?
All very interesting.
Steve #185
I punt on the horses and not the polls. I’m not a complete mug.
“the Nats will be on the verge of oblivion at the next election.”
Only if they don’t deliver their promises. If the Nats join with Labor, many voters may be initially disgruntled, If however the rural areas do receive an increase in funding and infastructure the party will be, if anything, even stronger.
At the moment I expect the Nats are trying to decide which party will provide more funding or are willing to contribute towards more of their projects.
Whichever party that is, Liberal or Labor, will be the one to receive the Nats backing.
Sceptic but that bet sitting there is a bet against the Liberals forming government. For just over sixty dollars if you match the $19 Lib punter, you would win just over forty if the Libs lose and I thought that is the way you were leaning.
William, new Newspoll out.
No 187
The fact that it was labelled a stunt is irrelevant in the current circumstances given that Barnett has indicated he now fully supports the proposal. This is also compounded by Corpse’s acceptance of the proposal.
Moreover, whilst the Nats may have attempted to brand themselves as independent, it isn’t a particularly tenable position when you consider that the National Party has been in coalition with the Liberal Party for decades (leaving aside their short stint alone in the late 1980s). In other words, the public almost expects there to be a coalition with the Liberals: it thus makes no sense to coalesce with Labor.
In any event, if the main aim is to secure Royalties for Regions, Barnett has accepted and thus the Nats should simply stop the cynical game and get the Libs into Government. Surely the spectre of Brian Burke should be enough to avoid Labor.
In No 193 I was referring to federal politics in my second paragraph.
No 190
Zach, if Grylls wants the Nationals to be more than just a party which sells its soul to the highest bidder, it rightfully should join with the Liberals.
Do you mean merge?
Rod Cameron on Lateline says the ALP is 50/50 to form a minority government with 28 seats plus 2 independents. Personally I think that’s a little optimistic.
Compelling argument, GP, if you were trying to convince the Barnett crew, and yourselves. Unfortunately, I, like a number of other folk think the game has changed. The wee Nat. looks O.K. and like someone you could deal with really, and Carpenter looks like someone who’s prepared to deal honestly.
No 196
In this situation, the best approach is to have a simple alliance if not a fully fledged coalition. So long as Barnett forms government, that’s all that should matter at this point.
Going forward, the Liberals and Nationals should be merging Australia wide, as in Queensland.
Gotta love it
“It’s absolutely disgraceful, Warren Truss wondering out loud if we should consider the WA model. Most of our problems in opposition come from our friends in the Nationals. I suspect he will soon recant,” one senior Liberal said.
That’ll sure help convince National voters to stick with the Libs…
(to want to)
No 198
That’s just wishful thinking from a dyed-in-the-wool Labor zealot.
Carpenter is not an honest dealer. He presided over the Brian Burke cabinet.
Ahem, Newspoll says nothin’ much has changed at the Fed. level.
No 200
Cowards typically speak anonymously. Whilst I agree that it is disgraceful for Truss to be talking aloud like that given the opposition’s current performance (i.e. the last thing we need is more disunity), this “senior” Liberal should have the courage to speak undisguised and furnish the so called “problems” “mostly” caused by the Nationals.
I agree Generic Person!
204
hear hear
204 – absolutely GP.
204 GP that is what I have always believed.
Generic Person @ 202. Lordy, you’re getting testy. For your information, I’m not a dyed in the wool Labor zealot. I’m not a zealot of any sort, and you’re very silly making such claims. Carpenter expelled those proven to have connections to Burke. Want to explore the connections between the LNP and Noel Crichton-Browne?
In particular the Treasurer Elect and Member For Vasse.
It’s official: the Republican Party has withdrawn from the US presidential election. The contest is now between the Democrats and The Maverick Party.
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/09/mccain_ad_original_mavericks.html
Gotta love it.
No 211
LOL What a laugh. Go McCain/Palin!
NoBama
(203) Yes Harry. Newspoll 56/44. So why are so many political commentators banging on about some mythical message that is supposed to have been sent to Kevin Rudd out of the WA and NT elections.
I suppose a headline like “Rudd Government honeymoon continues unabated” is not controversial enough to sell a lot of newspapers.
The message from WA for Rudd is (a) no canals (b) no Brian Burkes (c) no chair sniffing (d) no early elections (e) no deals with the Nats. I think Rudd can cope with that.
No 213
I don’t think it can be considered a honeymoon any longer. The polls have been fairly consistent since December 2006.
Of course it is misleading; Palin supported the bridge to nowhere before opposing it. Even though by that stage federal money had already been spent building the bridge’s approach.
No more misleading than Obama’s two-faced positions on guns, abortion and several other things. Palin is Miss Consistency compared to him.
Yes Darn, the media continues to desperately concoct this narrative of an unpopular Rudd Government, which is constantly contradicted by each successive Newspoll!
Alan Carpenter I like, he comes across to me as disarmingly honest and frank!
I suspect that a Labor/National coalition government in WA would last longer than a Liberal/National arrangement, and it is indicative that the WA Nats leader is in close contact with Karleen Maywald in SA.
As it stands right now, Labor has the most seats, but it’s a tenuous position.
Adam: going completely off topic:
McCain now 3 points ahead of Obama(50-47). They should have picked Hillary.
I notice the Lib supporters in here are getting more and more irritable.
Even though I thought Barnett should win because of Labors ridiculous position on Uranium mining in WA, the reality of the situation is that Labor will be forming government with the help of either the independents or the Nats(or whoever will vote with them).
What amazes me is the cockyness of the Lib Brigade and their belief that if you get a swing against your government but you still end up on top, that the other mob have the right to rule. Sorry to break it to you lot, but thats not how our democracy works. Good luck in another 4 years
No 216
Obama has zero executive experience and his speeches, whilst endearing, are platitudinous at best.
The Nationals’ dilemma is interesting. Victorian experience may have some relevance. The Nationals suffered very badly in the 1999 election, when Kennett lost, because of the perception (or reality) of the disadvantage to the non-metro areas of the State. Specifically, the Nationals copped a lot of the blame, because of their coalition with the Liberals. Since then they have been identifiably more independent, and they have reaped some benefit, with a particular improvement in their numbers in the 2006 election (when they were widely expected to go backwards). Unlike the current situation in WA, this Nats revival passed largely unnoticed, because the gap between Labor and the Libs was too wide.
No 220
Labor Voter, your insufferable, cretinous arrogance is quite hypocritical in light of the immeasurable gloating (and denigration of Liberal supporters) by people of your ilk after the victory of Kevin Rudd.
Folks, you have your own thread for the US election. This one’s a lot closer to home for some of us.
Mr Pot, meet Mrs Kettle
Generic Person: have a Bex and a good lie down! Relax mate, it ain’t that bad, still wall to wall Labor governments across the country!
Anybody see the 7.30 Report? Barnett looked like a made man, Carpenter looked like he hadn’t slept in a week. Just by body language, I’d say even if an ALP/Nat coalition happens, Carpenter won’t be premier in 6 months time. Any more of this craziness, and he’ll catch what Gallop had…
I think Alan and Annemarie need one of these
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2DUYcNHqXU
can people please stop talking about US politics in this wa thread, it’s bloody annoying
I doubt they’re desperate enough to have to listen to country music just yet.
re my 228, by coincidence, that song entered the Perth Charts 40 years ago on Saturday
It’s the lyrics Adam
And there isn’t a youtube of the WA Band The World Famous Oralettes performing “Dirty Weekend”, though that was about infedelity from both the Husband AND the Wife 
Labor voter (#220): Go easy on those poor libs. A lib government in WA is the best thing that could happen for federal Labor, at least as far as the next federal election goes. You saw how WA voted in November last year … do you really want that to happen again?
Bird Of Paradox: a rather insensitive remark about depression, not something to be joked about! It’s to Geoff Gallop’s credit that he overcame his demons and is now ensconced in his new job at Sydney Uni.
Progressive: I wasn’t really joking there. In the interview, he looked like he was a couple more sleepless nights or nasty surprises away from something snapping and going horribly wrong upstairs. Understandable, given the last few days he must’ve had. As soon as the new govt gets sorted out one way or another, the guy needs a holiday on a beach somewhere.
Any ALP supporters here with 2 brain cells to rub together will be hoping they don’t form government with the Nats
It is electoral SUICIDE…why sell out your base (the city) to the tune of 2.6 BILLION in the next 4 years for a pack of inbred banjo-twanging economic illiterates who got 4% of the vote, hate you anyway and will only let you govern when they feel like it?
How do you think the elctorate will react when they are told that Carpenter and Grylls want to take away their school upgrades, stadiums and rail lines for a fookin’ road to Port Hedland or some such ridiculous boondoggle?
Tell the Nats to get stuffed, let the Libs wear the oppobrium from the sell-out of the city and then watch Barnett try to govern with a one seat majority, a coalition of agrarian socialists, certifiable independents and the Dalkeith Mafia, and Buswell and the Courts stalking him for a chance to slip the knife. All the while one by-election from oblivion.
Meanwhile, clean out the Caucus, re-generate, move on from Carps and his merry band of incompetent fools and take bake government in four years.
Whoever does the deal with the Nats will lose in 2012 – guaranteed.
No 236
The question is why a government is involved in the building of stadiums. That is ridiculous “boondoggle” more than a road to Port Hedland would ever be.
Because the WA Football Commission, aided and Abetted by the sports mad media demanded it.
I should add as this is an AFL state, can you imagine the Backlash if the Government DIDN’T build a new stadium ?
Do the deal, do the deal. It’s getting old a boring, and I’ld love to see something you and innovative. Make history Nats, and please please please instantly record the look on every WA liberals face when it is announced.
that’s new and innovative
No 239
Can you imagine the praise if it redirected the $1 billion into schools and hospitals?
Along with The West & the Sunday Times
Expect those editors to immediately start a campaign to de-stabilise the alliance and demand the Govenor to act and dissolve Parliament and demand a new election.
No 240
It is not new and innovative for a Nat to side with Labor. It has already been done in South Australia.
Problem is the Kath & Kims want both
And that poor bloke on Saturday who voted on the basis on the V8 Supercars being held in the City, he’ll be having Kittens 
It is for the whole party to side with the ALP Mr GP
What little I have seen of Carpenter here in Vic I like. You can’t honestly have fatty boomba as your premier can you?
I’ll support the move as long as they call themselves the National-Socialists (NSPWA), as has been suggested here.
Barnett will just use your funds to set up as many all you can eat places, all during the time of a national obesity epidemic
The Media here painted Carpenter as “Arrogant”, just because he said it straight, it seems the media have forgotten how Arrogant Howard was.
NSPWA= non steroidal pain witholding application
No 249
What are you – a child? For the record, Corpse is a bit flabby himself.
Maybe that will help Barnetts blood presure rising. I’m waiting for him to turn into a tomato on national television as his head gets redder and eventually explodes
Conservatives= no sense of humour. Isn’t it the constitution and handbook for every tory?
Come to think of it I think the former Victorians opposition leaders head exploded at some point
No 254
It’s humorous for a child, not for an adult.
Anyway, I just watched Corpse on 7.30 and the interview smacked of absolute desperation!
It’s not over till the fat lady sings gp or this case the fat opposition leader. Will he step down do you think and give the beagle another go? Has the beagle thought of working for customs, or are his olofactory skills just a show?
Is it just me, or does Brendan Grylls bear a striking resemblance to Dave Hughes, who ironically spent his early comedy years here in WA and who also has a pronounced lisp
only a little bit Frankl
Speaking of Dave Hughes, I can well imagine Brendan Grylls trying to extract the best deal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qy2bqUg_O_w&feature=related
Seat that disappoints me is Morley , D’orazrio prefs at highest for Labor would be 45% based on consevative greens preferencing , but could be just under 40%
Voters who voted fro him could hav voted Liberal or Greens or CDP or Independent with there Primary & didn’t , deliberatley voted for him and then preferenced accordingly …if just another 9% more had preferenced Labor via D’orazio then would hav made it neck & neck
And Reece Whitby is paying out big time on D’Orazio for preferencing the Libs.
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/audio/200809/20080908-whitby.mp3
I heard from a scrutineer that over 40% of Nat preferences defied their card and went to Labor in the north of the state. A lot of country Labor people would be rapt to see the regions get the 25%.
Grylls might lose a few of the lunatic right from the Nats if he goes with Labor but would more than compensate by picking up other middle of the road voters. If he goes with Labor he deals the Nats back into politics. If he goes with the Libs on anything less than a champagne deal I think they are finished. He might be quite happy to get rid of his party’s lunatic fringe for the sake of longevity.
The Nats will want to allow uranium mining and GM crops. Will Carps compromise on those as well as royalties for regions?
I cannot see the Nat support the Labor in WA
In SA, the Nat supported the Lab because the SA Lib was on the nose and close to being kick out. They were clinging to parliament
Even if Carpenter stays at premier, his power is so diluted within his own party and with the Nats who are philosophically different that it is hard to see Carpenter staying in power for more then 2 years
And at the next election Labor would have failed the city so much that they get kicked out
The Nat must also be angry at Labor for 1v1v, WA Labor tried to wipe them out and take their seats away
Tha Nat will only support legislation they likes
I think it is more likely for Labor to go into coalition with the 2 Lib independants than the Nats
Ed the seph
National in 2 seats relied on staying in front of Labor (by 2-3%) and using their preference to get up
they cannot afford to lose any more of their constituency, even if they are right wing nuts
Reece Whitby seems to be completely oblivious to the fact the Labor party have parachuted him into a seat he didn’t deserve, and he has been punished for it. Not even a member for 12 months and he is suprised he didn’t get the same level of vote from the labor party faithful? Sour grapes.
Frank, there’s no resemblance at all.
Brendan Grylls is funny.
Strugglestreet, what a totally simplistic view of the situation in Morley. D’Orazio took 16% of the primary vote through sheer spite, knowing he had no way of winning the seat. Do you think those 3,000 votes were going to go Liberal? And on another note, when have D’Orazio supporters ever been the Labor faithful? The man is one of the most self-interested pathetic excuses for a person. Great way to repay the Labor faithful, by stabbing them in the back and taking a safe Labor seat and turning it Liberal.
Its also a great way to repay the labor voters by parachuting in a journalist to a seat he doesn’t live anywhere near, after less than 12 months in the party. People didn’t preference Liberal just because they were told to.
vitap,
So – the voters did not have anything to do with it? They were purely sheep, lead around by a creul and vicious ex-ALP man, bent on destroying the good and faithful ones he is now “…stabbing in the back”?
OK – I agree. We should play the man, not the ball.
No 264
Corpse’s opposition to uranium mining is ridiculous anyway. He is certainly incongruent with Labor policy in other states.
Do you think it is a genuine opposition, or merely a pre-poll attempt to scare Greens voters into allocating their preferences to the ALP above the Liberals?
obviously a pre-poll attempt to get Green’s preferences after their internal polling showed a big greens vote.
Haven’t you lot worked out who won yet? What the hell’s going on?
… and just the sort of cynical exercise that is likely to turn voters off. Changing policies during an election campaign is never a good look.
Thufferin’ Thuckotash!
What happened to all the commenters? Has no one got anything to say? Rumour? Speculation? Half-overhead scrutineer reports? Approximate notional 2CP counts based on WAEC figures?
All I can say is: the WAEC is obscenely lethargic in their vote counting.
Western Australian country towns are falling to bits despite them being the ones producing almost all of WA’s Billions of dollars in revenue.
Unlike in Queensland where power is less centralised to the capital city, WA has almost all it’s electorates based on Perth meaning the big parties couldn’t give 2 hoots on what happens outside Perth.
I think the Nats are on to something here.
Bear in mind that the upper house still has a pronounced gerrymander
I’m very frustrated with the WAEC. Why not update the notional 2CP counts beyond election night? Why update the website so sporadically?
Dovif:
I guess you’re talking about Moore… which other seat? Terry Redman did that last time, but now has an big fat margin (16.4% vs Lib).
If the National voter base moves to the left, they’re gonna lose a few voters to, who, One Nation? The CEC? In the meantime, they’ll pick up voters from Labor, making their chances look a lot better in seats like Moore and also North West / Pilbara / Kimberley. The Nats did very well in the three northern seats (23.5%, 22.9% and 21.2% from nothing last time, actually overtaking the Libs in Pilbara). Those are Labor seats where they can boot the Libs to third and win from there. If the Nats stay true and get this right for their people, they will very likely win at least one northern seat next time.
Bludgers, my midday mail from the Wild West is:
Labor 27
Libs 23
Nats 4
pro-Lib independents 2
ex-Labor independents 2
Doubtful 1
The last seat really undecided is Riverton, which will finish up in court whoever wins.
Thus:
Labor+Inds=29
Lib+Nat+Inds=29
Deadlock
possible outcomes are:
Lib+Nat+all four Inds = 31
Lab+Nat=31.
I’m told that Bowler and Adams will not support a Lib-Nat government. Thus the ONLY realistic short-term outcome is a minority Labor government supported by the Nats.
Exciting Adam,
Is this form internal party sources or from your reading of the state of play?
“The last seat really undecided is Riverton, which will finish up in court whoever wins.
Thus:
Labor+Inds=29
Lib+Nat+Inds=29
Deadlock”
Won’t the person declared elected by the WAEC sit in Parliament until and unless the Court of Disputed Returns decides otherwise?
Who have you got winning Wanneroo? I thought that was tighter than Riverton.
My sources cannot be revealed, but are well-informed
Martin, yes that is so. But a government depending on the vote of the Hon Member for Riverton would be in constant danger, and its actions might be legally challenged if that member’s election were to be annulled.
I think these figures assume that the Libs will win Wanneroo.
at 5pm last night, Guise was 77 votes behind & McRae 71…
They are the same
Wanneroo Lib 79 ahead trend to Liberal
Riverton Lib 71 ahead trend to Liberal
From the WA
Albany had came down from about 300 ALP ahead to 120 ALP ahead atm
Bowler had said he will support the party who gives his electorate most money
Adams had said she is sick of the ALP forgetting her seat, and unless they stop taking her for granted and spend more money in her electorate, she will go with the libs
My sources say that despite Bowler and Adams sounding off in public, they will support Labor if it comes to a choice.
So Labor takes Forrestfield and Albany?
Interesting days ahead … assuming Carpenter lives on to remain Premier. Is it all possible that Labor retains Govt but installs someone else instead?? (and if so, can it be McGinty ??)
Adams has not definitely won.
The latest AEC figures are from 9pm last night and there is still a lot to be counted – absentee and postals which favour Labor. She needs to stop swanning around at Parlt house and shooting her mouth off in the media like a less interesting Pauline Hanson, and get to the tally room to watch her votes.
Talk about taking the electorate for granted….
the WAEC are really taking their time aren’t they. i reckon i could have counted one seat myself by now.
man o man
this election has more twists and turns than a twisty turny thing in a twistatorium on a Tuesday.
As a distant observer, I can’t see anything guaranteeing stable government in WA unless the Nats support the ALP, particularly in light of the need to find a Speaker. I think Labor will bend over backwards to grovel to the Nats, and I wonder if it will even involve surrendering on uranium mining and GM crops. That would piss the Greens off, but the Greens effectively have no power in this situation, despite getting many more votes than the Nats.
Even if he gets the nats on board, it’s hard to see Barnett cobbling together a stable government.
And I repeat what I wrote yesterday – Grylls seems to have adopted Karlene Maywald as her mentor, and this can only be promising for Labor.
“And I repeat what I wrote yesterday – Grylls seems to have adopted Karlene Maywald as her mentor, and this can only be promising for Labor.”
I know he has a lisp, but he’s all man I believe….
the seats are far from decided… i built a simple prediction spreadsheet based on the trend and it is still entirely possible that Libs will win Albany and Forrestfield (arguably likely in at least one case) Riverton too close to call. Libs likely to win Morley and Wanneroo
Just a quick one… why do people think a Lib minority govt would be unstable.
If Libs get 24, plus 2 Lib Inds, plus 4 nats, this should be relatively stable.
The 2 Lib Inds are basically Libs – they have said as much… they wont cause any problems…. and in terms of the Nats, once they decide to form a govt with barnett, there is no reason why they would be unstable… they will vote as a block
Well obviously if the Libs win Albany and/or Forrestfield then Libs+Nats+Inds=a majority. But they ain’t there yet.
Is it just me or is this the most incompetent effort to date by the WAEC. I cant believe how slow they have been in getting the count done. any reason why this result is dragging out so long!
Adam, the actions of neither Parl nor the Exec can be challenged because of any electoral misadventure, let alone error in the make up of Parl. It’s ‘non-justiciable’ in the jargon.
Whoever the Gov swears in is the Exec. And whoever the WAEC returns as elected are the MPs, if and until a Court of Disputed Returns picks MPs off, one by one.
That said, it’s timely that the Fed Court in the McEwen petition asserted its independent right to read disputed ballots how it pleased, without deference to the ECs rulings.
And yes, politically a govt would look silly and weak if it relied on the vote of an MP under challenge. Although wasn’t Goss in that position in his last days, before the Mundingburra re-election?
My bet: if Riverton decided govt, the judge would be very keen to throw it back to ‘the people’
301 – It’s a Zimbabwe scenario. The counting will be clarified next week and the outcome will be sorted. It can take days and weeks for some of those remote area ballot boxes to come in after all.
Some of those whitey Rhodesians and South Africans living in Perth would be all too familiar with the scenario.
10pse, any side which gets 30 seats (and no more) will just have to pray there’s no by-election!
10pse, the other party would have to have 29 seats of course. Then a by-election would decide the fate of the government.
Another thought:
With the WAEC apparently caught unprepared and understaffed, the potential for errors, miscounts, lost votes, etc is probably much higher than usual. It’s hard to see this NOT ending up in court no matter which way it goes.
I make the trend in Riverton as towards Labor, not to the Libs.
I’ve been tracking waec updates.
With 18,601 counted, McRae was on 40.06 but that has now gone up to 40.17 with 18,983 counted. Over the same period Nahan is down from 41.62 to 41.48.
1.31% is not much of a lead with 10.22% green preferences to dole out.
Wanneroo on the other hand has been trending to the Libs.
The Tonkin Labor Government held office with the casting vote of the Speaker from 71 to 74. It was a relatively stable Government and survived 4 by-elections, one caused by the untimely death of the Speaker whilst Parliament was sitting.
Peter at 307 – that is correct…. the trend has gone sligtly to labor in riverton
the trend is towards libs in wanneroo, forrestfield, albany.
morley trend relatively flat
collie also trending liberal but will prob fall short by about 95 votes
To be fair to the WAEC, they can’t keep thousands of people in election mode for the whole four-year term on the offchance that the premier will call a snap election. They had to cope with a massive redistribution, and no doubt they had a plan to be ready by the due date of the election.
Solution: fixed terms!
Agree 100%
#297 required…”I know he has a lisp, but he’s all man I believe….”
or are you speaking from personal experience??
Surely, after this, no matter who wins fixed terms will be introduced. Didn’t the Libs vote against this measure when Labor tried to introduce it?
Adam and Dario,
I can only assume you don’t live in NSW where everyone is aghast that fixed 4 year terms means we have 30 months to wait before we can get rid of our incompetent retread government.
Fixed terms should mean just that. The Libs are just frightened that Labor maybe able to reduce a thorough thrashing to a defeat. It could mean the difference between a one term conservative government and a two term one.
No, I’m from NSW, but what difference would it make here other than waiting a little longer to replace an incompetent government with an incompetent opposition?
Dario – can i ask on what basis you say the NSW opposition is incompetent? We know the NSW government is, because they have governed, and done it abysmally…
But we can’t possibly know the opposition to be incompetent… they have not been given the chance to govern.
labor woule be smarter to have engineered a poll now in nsw then to wait. in 2008 they may have been able to save some furniture, in 2011 it will be a bloodbath. Watch the rats leave over the next 2 years – should be fun.
I am all for fixed term in NSW, lets make the fix term of this government 1 day
I would wonder if they lose half the seats
If they run a referendum, they will get 75% to overthrow the government
When the NSW right give the premier to the Left, then give the deputy to the left as well, you know they will be saying
“Look the left lost us the election …. lets never go there again”
As a matter of fact I do now live 100 metres inside NSW.
Gasp! I agree with Edward! As soon as Fatty O’Barrell rejected electricity privatisation (Liberals for state ownership!), Iemma should have engineered a no confidence vote (they do it regularly in the Knesset) and gone to the polls. He could have said “The socialist O’Barrell and his team of trotskyites will bankrupt the state with their mad plan for state ownership. Vote for Labor, free enterprise and cheaper electricity!” He’d have won in a canter. Now he’s history.
All predictions from conservative supporters are well and good but it doesn’t make an election happen and it won’t.
WAEC updated site
Labor needs to abandon its policy of electricity privatisation and leave to the Libs. “It won’t happen under us but it will under the Libs”. It wouldn’t save them but it would give them a stick to belt the Libs with.
It’s clear electricity privatisation is as popular as a brown thingy in a swimming pool up there.
this is the wa election thread, keep it on topic please!
what is the status of all these seats at play?
I’ve read on thewest.com.au that libs have edged ahead in wanneroo and riverton and van onselen is tipping them to libs (of course)
however im guessing thewest is not up to current info..
Are you saying Nelson isn’t incompetent because he hasn’t had the chance to govern? Puhleese
WA site has been updated.
Implications are:
Morley still looks safe for Libs
North west still looks safe for Labor
Riverton still obviously too close to call.
Libs still in box seat in Wanneroo, though Labor has turned trend around a little.
Labor seems to have reversed the narrowing in Albany, so maybe they will hold on there.
Libs still closing in Forrestfield…. I think in a day or so it will be another Riverton
Libs closing in Colliee-Preston… may fall short, but looking more a possibility with each update
Sorry about that, I thought I was on the other thread. It’s easy to lose track.
They’re basing it on an interview Van Onsolen did on 6PR.
BTW, did anyone see the Front Page of the West ? I think Grylls is going to be the West’s new whipping boy if the Libs don’t get over the line.
Mmmm, anymore predictions? I’m leaning towards the West Australian’s analysis (’Labor hopes rest on knife-edge seats’):
“The most likely outcome is that the Liberals will win 24 seats, Labor 27, the Nationals four with four Independents”
Since when was Peter Van Howardbiographer a psephologist?
The West’s latest story on the tally:
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96948
Ever since he’s become the WA Media’s Election “Expert” of choice – he’s young and funky, unlike the old fogeys David Black & Harry Phillips.
Wot about Our William? Is he not young and funky??
William needs to start wearing a Hawaiian shirt in the style of Dr Karl, then he’d get more press
328 Frank: Yep, saw it passing through the busport. That headline ‘The best little whorehouse in Australia’ really stood out… I didn’t have time to stop and read it, but I’m guessing the West has a big article inside on why the two party system and Lib/Nat coalition is the One True Way?
No, but Paul Murray is blaming Labor for introducing One Vote One Value and how it’s caused this result.
Gad yes, what a terrible idea it was allowing the proletariat to vote! Wouldn’t have happened in Sir John Forrest’s day, what?
I still can never quite believe it when people advocate a gerrymander, particularly in chambers with single-member districts such as the legislative assembly.
I think Dr Bruce Stone at UWA would be a good media contact for these stories, but he never seems to get a mention. Perhaps he turns down media requests, I’m not sure.
Gees, The West are talking up a Liberal Victory in almost every article, even this on who will be in charge if an Emergency occurs.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96964
If the National and Liberals gets the majority of both houses, I think they should copy Labor and the Greens and rig the system
they can introduce 1v0v for all the labor seats they get one vote, but it will be 0 value
Matt C,
I think Bruce, like most academics, doesn’t really like to get involved with the media stuff on a day to day basis.
Fair enough, it can be quite time consuming.
Don’t know what’s caused it (perhaps just a web glitch) but the total votes counted in Riverton has just gone backwards with both Lib and Lab strengthening against the greens, on the waec site.
It used to say 19237 counted, now its down to 18,537!
Fixed terms:
How do they work, in a situation where no potential premier can command the confidence of the Assembly? Caretaker governement for the unexpired balance of the fixed term? Surely not?
I would think the governor would have the power to call for another election under those circumstances. You’d think though that one group or other could combine to reach the necessary 30 mark. if that broke up another group would try it. Instability reigns supreme.
So much for The West’s scare campaign on City Projects/promises being scrapped under a Nationals alliance with Labor.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/coalition-government-more-unified-carpenter-20080909-4cmk.html
Frank
No he will just make sure the $700 Mil is spend on the country, that is just the starting point
Carpenter can do what he want with the city project, ie go into debt to fulfill election promise or Scrap them
The National would not push for it to be scrapped
Matt C – did you do pols at UWA in ‘99 and 2000?
Gary @ 345: Do you mean the Governor decides for himself to dissolve Parliament? Surely not. Presumably, he can only do so on the advice of a Premier who has lost the confidence of the Assembly. But a Premier who has lost confidence will almost always advise this, if the only alternative is advising the Governor to send for the leader of the opposition.
So, if the fall of the government can lead to a dissolution, in what sense are there “fixed terms”?
Anybody know how this works in those states which have “fixed terms”? Plus, anybody know why fixed terms are considered a good idea? It seems obvious that it will tend to promote instability of government. For obvious reasons, MPs strongly dislike elections, and the threat of an election is one of the incentives they have to make stable commitments to support governments.
If a government continued to suffer defeats, and no alternative government could be found, an early election would take place. If the Carpenter government stayed in office but kept being defeated, it would eventually have to resign. Colin Barnett would be offerred the Premiership. If he declined unless he would be granted an election, Carpenter would continue in office, but if defeated again would have to have an early election, or else the Goveror would agree to barnett’s alternative offer of a Premiership with right of an election.
That is how the convention used to work, but it is about 60 years since it was applied in Australia. It may be in this era when strong government is required, the Governor may agree to the first request for a dissolution.
The convention is that if a government is defeated, and the opposition is commissioned and defeated, or declines a commission, then the first defeated government has the right to be caretaker government into the election. It is only on rare occassions, such as the sacking of the Whitlam and Lang government, that the opposition is appointed government ahead of the election. If the Carpenter government were defeated and Barnett would only agree to take office on promise of a dissolution, then the Governor by convention would offer to leave Carpenter in place pending an early election.
We haven’t seen such a situation since Victoria and Tasmania in the 1950s.
Interesting…..According to Antony Green, Kwinana has swung back to ALP retain again.
Do the Nationals actually have projects (new hospitals, roads, railways, whatever) they want built in the country that are worth $700 million? I’m interested where that figure comes from.
#348
99, no. I started in 2000.
I wonder if the Nats want the state govt to buy back the wheat rail network? It got privatised a few years ago, currently owned by Babcock and Brown who are in quite deep trouble at the moment (there was talk of lines being closed to save money last month).
Long post, but here goes. Conventions related to early dissolution, taken from R.D.Lumb, ‘Constitutions of the Australian States’.
(1) A State Governor should take every opportunity to see that Supply, including interim supply, is secured before granting a dissoluitoon. This is to enable the ordinary operation of government to be carried on.
(2) A request by a Premier, defeated at an election, for a dissolution before parliament meets should be refused.
(3) A government which enjoys the support of the Lower House is ordinarily not entitled to a dissolution in the early life (i.e. the first year) of the new parliament. There are exceptions to this rule: if the opposition agrees, if some important new issue of public policy has arisen, or where there has been major change in the parliamentary situation, or where the premier resigns and no alternative government is possible.
(4) In cases where a premier having the support of the Lower House makes a request for a dissolution this request will invariably be granted subject to the qualification expressed in (3). This will lead to a premature election, but accords with the basic principles of representative government and responsible government.
(5) A government that has been defeated in a critical division (i.e. on Supply or a vote of confidence) has the options of resigning and requesting a dissolution of the Lower House. A request may be based on the grounds outlined in (3). If, however, an alternative government is possible, the governor may commission a new premier, but in most cases the defeated premier would be granted a dissolution.
(6) In certain circumstances where there have been successive requests, the former being refused to a ‘majority’ premier, the latter being made to a ‘minority’ premier, it is proper for the governor to refuse the request of the ‘minority’ government and recommission the former government, granting its request. (This last happened in Victoria in 1952)
(7) In those states where an Upper House has the power to refuse supply and exercises it, the options referred to in (5) will be available to the Premier.
All of the above was set down before fixed term Parliaments. All the fixed term provisions have instituted ‘baton change’ provisions that clarify the operation of (3).
Mr Orange, I have no idea what’s happening in Kwinana. There are no preference counts. We are guessing preferences.
Antony,
Thanks for your comment regarding conventions relating to early dissolution.
With regards to Morley, do you think it will be possible to form any preliminary estimations of the 2CP vote, or will we have to wait for the full preference count to see how D’Orazio’s preferences split?
Anthony @ 350 and 355: Thanks; now I get it. Presumably in a fixed term law the operation of convention (3) is not only “clarified”, but extended beyond the first year of the parliament.
Still looks like a bad idea to me. It greatly reduces the cost to a minor group/individual MP in a balance-of-power situation of withdrawing support from the government in office and offering it to the opposition. Completely the opposite incentive to what we should be looking for if we want stable governments.
Bird of paradox @ 352: It’s a percentage of the State’s revenues from minerals. (25%, if I recall correctly.) The Nats haven’t specified particular projects; they want it put into a fund earmarked to pay for regional infrastructure projects. Presumably any relevant local or central government authority can put forward suitable projects.
351 Kwinana – WAEC has a notional distribution of prefs to ALP and LIB despite Adams polling higher in primary votes than the Lib. The ABC website has the same hence the prediction ALP retain.
Need to wait till there is some preference distribution to Adams, not Lib, to get a better idea. However I don’t believe Adams has it in the bag – she’s being far too cocky and the media is getting too excited about her as an independent.
Antony
Those regulations are pretty complicated and must be beyond the skills of interpretation of most, if not all, Governors. I know the Governor is the final arbiter of these things but who does the Governor go to before delivering his/her “verdict”.
This is driving me up the wall
On Thurday and Friday I will actually getting myself one of those shinny scrutineer badges, then I can go and see wtf is happening down there. (and argue over Libs ballots with messy writting, 7’s with the stroke through them and 4’s that don’t join at the top)
I don’t even want to wait that long. wow….I need a life!!!
being blind as well?
Id like to see that.
re post 314
fixed terms are a fixture of a democratic system…… unless a government
loses the confidence of the parliament… the voters decide at the due
time. the other alternative is a government can manipulate the timing of elections
so they stay in forever
allllll weeeeee are sayyyyying is give waec a chaaaaaaaaance
*all together now*
allllll weeeeee are sayyyyying is give waec a chaaaaaaaaance
Diogenes @ 359: On the rare occasions when a governor is not required by constitutional convention to act on the advice of ministers, he’s supposed to take his own decisions. The one quality a governor needs above all others is a willingness to take a decision when a decision has to be taken. That’s why, historically, governors have tended to be drawn quite often from a pool of retired generals and retired judges.
He can take advice from anyone he likes, but it’s not advice in the ministerial sense; it’s the opinion of anyone whose opinion he thinks it will be helpful to consult in making his decision. I would guess that a governor in this situation would consider talking to QCs with expertise in constitutional matters and/or former governors.
Mick @ 314: In parliamentary democracies, I think fixed terms are exceptional. Subject to a maximum term which can be anywhere from three to five years and to conventions like those Anthony has set out, the norm is that governments are free to hold a general election when they want.
The power to “manipulate the timing of elections” does not give governments the opportunity to stay in forever (as Carps has just demonstrated). We voters may be stupid, but we’re not [i]that[/i] stupid.
FreoBloke
Can the Governor’s decision be appealed in the High Court? Who ultimately is in charge of our country?
I’ve updated my results at the top of the page. Liberal Paul Miles all but claiming victory in Wanneroo.
Forrestfield: ALP now 151 votes ahead… 8673 v 8522…Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
^ scrutineer error corrected…
A Governor’s decision on a dissolution cannot be reviewed by the courts.
I am seriously struggling with the news that WAEC isn’t updating figures properly
Its just completely unforgivable in this day and age…a key democratic process like this needs to be transparent and clean as a whistle, not subject to doubt and speculation
Thanks to William B for this forum, it feels like Im better informed by logging on here than to an offical wbsite
Albany now 73 votes ahead
ALP – Watson LIB – Partington
9169 9096 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8750 8630 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8182 8065 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Collie-Preston now 335 votes ahead
ALP – Murray LIB – Thomas
9159 8824 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8672 8263 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8299 7883 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Forrestfield now 115 votes ahead
ALP – Waddell LIB – Morton
9307 9192 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8673 8522 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8177 7935 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Kwinana * now 426 votes ahead
ALP – Cook IND – Adams
1788 1362 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
* Figures based on early & postal votes as of Mon 7/9/08 and do not include Saturday’s results – therefore not an accurate two party preferred count.
Morley now 396 votes behind
ALP – Whitby LIB – Britza
9180 9576 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8548 9049 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
7804 8327 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Riverton now 50 votes behind
ALP – McRae LIB – Nahan
9247 9297 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8176 8247 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8002 8034 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Wanneroo now 93 votes behind
ALP – Guise LIB – Miles
8896 8989 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8569 8646 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
7299 7293 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Just thinking, but looking at the William’s table, it looks as if Green’s preferences will decide the Government in WA but that the Nats will dispose of the booty?
Mr Squiggle, how do you think I feel having to deal with endless official complaints to the ABC because our website is not up to date.
Hi Anthony, (AKA the Pseph-lord)
it can’t be an easy gig just now
However, if you ever move out of commentary and into public service, please give the WAEC a close look –
just now, it feels like they could do with some guidance
Thanks very much for all that info, Shtuwang.
Hello Shtuwang,
Its the narrowing!!!! –
I knew I’d see it one day
Boerwar,
“Don’t mention The Greens”
The Greens have been deciding who is elected across Australia for quite some time.
The elephant in the room has been ignored by the MSM thus delegating them somewhat irrelevant.
Any one with observation skills can see the massive growth of Green voters across Australia.
The 2PP Club is over.
Bah the greens – rentseekers the lot of them!
A few snippets from callers that I heard on the way home whilst scanning the AM radio stations (I think it was 6PR):
1. Use TAB instead of WAEC for voting – if they can handle 188 million bets on Melbourne Cup day and pay out a short while after the race is run, then they should be able to handle counting the votes a lot better than WAEC and the “polling places” are already set up in most suburbs and even some country towns.
2. One caller was a scrutineer at Kwinana electorate and reported many voters turning up for voting not realising their electorate had changed. Also voters not on electoral roll where they expected to be. Apparently many country voters didn’t get to vote.
3. This guy reported that WAEC imported in 1500 electoral workers from outside WA for this election and us dear taxpayers are paying for their air fares, accommodation, meals, wages and God knows what else. Estimated cost to us in WA is $15m.
4. Questions over accuracy and efficiency of using pencils and paper to vote and look at electronic system where voters put in a PIN to vote and data already put in a computer so that counting can be done easily and quickly.
the Greens never “Decide” who wins, because they always preference Labor. They simply help Labor.
shtuwang
do you know how much more votes to count
Albany is 51.1-48.9 to Lib
Morley is 50.3-49.7 to Lib
Forestville is 52.7-47.3 to Lib
If there is 2000 more vote to count in Albany and Forestvills and they head the same rate
Liberal would win both of them, and Liberal would have 45 seats to ALP 44
Liberal would win both of them, and Liberal would have 45 seats to ALP 44
Dovif, an error there, they don’t add up to the number of seats in parliament.
There is a new WA seat we don’t know about?
should read 46-45 Labor, 4 Nat, 2 Lib Ind, 2 Lab Ind
It’s Forrestfield – it seems our Conservative bloogers can’t spell out suburbs, even those like Glen who have claimed to live here.
dovif: There are only 59 seats in the parliament?
nope…
Just a quick one that no one seems to have mentioned… in 2pp terms the Libs have beaten Labor roughly 51.5 – 48.5. Under these circumstances Labor would be incredibly lucky if they hung on… though that is looking unlikely
No 310
Fixed terms are an abomination. They should be flexible with a maximum possible term of no more than 3 years. After living under fixed term hell in NSW, I do not wish it on any state or territory.
I thought that once an election was called you had to cease all employment, especially if you were a Councillor or Deputy Mayor, or even Mayor ?
If this is the case, then several candidates who are in Local Government are in deep doo doo.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/radio-parking-tips-for-perth-commuters-20080909-4ckl.html
If you are opposed to fixed terms then you have to accept the corollary – premiers will call snap elections when it suits them, electoral authorities will be caught unprepared, and there will be the consequent expense we have seen in WA. Take your pick.
Frank, re 392, I do not believe there is any legislation that prevents a local government councillor from being a State Parliamentarian. I do not have the time to dig out the relevant legislative provisions tonight, but unless somebody else beats me to it, I will do so tomorrow.
It is imperative that there is a mechanism to get rid of a government that is not workable, or in which the public has lost confidence, etc. However, as a population we must question why we so have so many politicians in the first place, with their too-generous allowances, superannuation, hangers-on and the rest of the package. Also, while we’re at it, question why we need the WAEC as well as the AEC, and the whole preferential voting system. Perhaps if the Greens didn’t give away their sizeable votes so freely to Labor, they might even get some candidates into the lower house. They almost managed it in Fremantle – they could have provided a major service to WA by ridding us of McGinty. The wasted resources and the cost of supporting a bunch of mainly incompetents around the country is mind-boggling, when health, education, justice and infrastructure are in such a poor state, at least in WA.
If you think the greens are going to provide more quality candidates you are not part of this world.
re: Generic Person
Generic Person,
Fixed terms of the NSW parliament were introduced via a referendum.
The referendum question was:
Do you approve of the Bill entitled: “A Bill for an Act to require the Parliament of NSW to serve full 4-year terms and to prevent politicians calling early general elections or changing those new constitutional rules without a referendum?
The results were: YES 2,449,796 & NO 795,706
That’s over 3/4 of NSW voters in favour of fixed 4 year terms.
I suggest that if you don’t like it, either leave NSW or don’t vote for that nasty Liberal Party that introduced the referendum.
I am contemplating leaving Sydney actually. I quite like Perth.
382 Strugglestreet: if you reckon Greens preferences always favour Labor exclusively, look closer. There’s no better way to illustrate this than the seat of Churchlands, where only three candidates ran, and the Greens came last.
The primary vote: Constable 68.3%, ALP 17.7%, Greens 14.0%.
The 2CP result, excluding just the Greens: Constable 74.4%, ALP 25.6%.
Therefore, Greens prefs split 6.1% / 7.9% to Constable / ALP, ie: 56% of Greens voters preferenced ALP, and the other 44% went for Constable.
See? Look closer, you learn stuff.
392 Frank: Clover Moore is both member for Sydney in the NSW parliament and Lord Mayor of Sydney City Council, so I don’t imagine there’s rules against a dual role of that sort of thing.
I’m pretty sure the WA Electoral Act is different to NSW.
I hope Mr Sutherland resigns from Council
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/candidate_information.php#Qualifications
The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo.
“Liberal Chris Back was closing in on Alfred Cove Independent Janet Woollard, with just 20 votes separating the pair”.
Yay! Maybe no more Janet? I wouldn’t bet on it though.
I know of at least 2 postal votes in Alfred Cove are for the ALP Candidate because of Ms Wollard’s comments regarding her support in a minority Barnett Government.
Excellent news Frank! I had a cunning plan myself to vote Labor and direct preferences to the Liberals guy, in the hope that Labor would get more votes than Woollard, thereby eliminating her. Alas, it was not to be.
They weren’t mine but a friend of mine and her First time voter daughter
The mother voted for Woolard in 2005 because of Graham Kierath hence Woolard’s increased vote then, but the libs wisesly avoided him this time 
I’m not being very impartial now am I? I must do better to hide by distaste for my local member.
Yes, Kierath was certainly poison. Had I been able to vote at that election I would certainly have put Labor first. I generally consider the candidate and their views more than the party when voting, which doesn’t seem to happen much nowadays. It should really though, because its quality members that make a good government, not party hacks or idiots.
I have just sent this missive off to The West online Blog in reply to a recent story questioning should any of the parties deal with John Bowler. Of course they won’t print it but I’ve had a guts-full of them (The West) as well! And to think I worked for them for 18 years of my life …..!
‘More to the point should either party have anything further to do with your newspaper?
You demand your rights under the journalistic code and constantly preach Free Speech yet you consistently veto individuals rights to be heard to suit your own agenda. You only print or publish what suits you, and let me ask “who are you?”
I exercise my right to respond to your blogs, “have your say” etc. etc. yet nothing I have to say ever gets printed or published. I run for parliament in the State Election as an Independent and send you my policy platform that entails, amongst other things, the banning of multa-novas in the metropolitan area (in the first week the election is called). Nothing is printed, published or even acknowledged. Yet in the last week of the election a newly formed party (www.WAFamilyFirst.com.au) comes out with my multa-nova platform and Paul Murray suddenly thinks this is a great idea and publishes a big expose on the party and the new policy!
You bag anything and anyone not to your ilk, yet you deny anyone who wants to stand up and change things for the better it would seem. John Bowler ran as an Independent – and I can tell you first hand that there is no lonelier place to be in an election. His electorate has elected him to represent them. You do not have the right to question should anyone deal with him – especially in light of the fact that his closet had long been exposed for all and sundry to see and hear everything possible about him. It is high time you stopped making the news and simply reported the news in a neutral manner as is the charter of a major daily newspaper. You yourself are guilty of gross hypocricy in that you are happy to take millions of dollars in polital advertising for the election and then have the gall to want to play sherrif and question the morality and ethics of all and sundry who choose to serve the electorate. Your ‘Whorehouse’ headline was your lowest point and it has now got to the point that your own shareholders are starting to shake with rage at your antics ………. not to mention your downward spiralling share price. Of course, you won’t print it but let it be known that the writing is proverbially on the wall. When one continues to push the boundaries to the enth degree, the day will come when the boundaries bounce back, but you will have lost a lot more than just my respect by that time!
Wayne Thompson’
Go on Wayne, don’t hold back, tell ‘em how you really feel…
401 William
So the Liberal is counting a higher ALP vote, while the ALP are counting a higher Lib vote
Next thing you know. Liberal will be trying to disallow their votes (northwest)
or the National will get into bed with Labor
This is very reminiscent of waiting for the 1974 Federal election count and Victoria 1999. If the ALP loses the postal votes race, it will have wasted the clear advantage in this area that comes with incumbency. A snap election can catch your own people napping as well. I was appalled at the lack of a coordinated postal vote strategy in the 2007 election in WA.
dovif, it is possible to get all sort of weird scenerios from this election as Anna Winter on LP says.
“Whichever party the Nats decide to deal with, they likely won’t enter into coalition. They’d guarantee supply, but otherwise keep their options open. And given the Nats’ likely control of both houses, it would possible for one of those options to be to get legislation passed without the help of the government. Meaning ministers forced to implement legislation they voted against.
Unlikely, sure. But wouldn’t it be fun while it lasted? And what other wacky scenarios can people think up before boring reality kicks in again?”
.
Here’s a couple of outside seats to watch…
Pilbara
If the Nats get a decent share of the Greens vote – but not likely
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Pilbara/District_results.php
Note: ALP are scruitineering this count
Kimberley
I don’t think the Libs can win it, but if the Nats can overtake the Libs on the back of the greens there may be a chance
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Kimberley/District_results.php
There was some oddness in some of the booths in Pilbara, according to scuinteers, so that could be one to watch.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24317337-2761,00.html
Labor party insider most likely result will be 31 – 29 or 32 – 28, Libs:Nats:Conservative Ind versus Labor:Labor Ind.
Big call given there are only 59 seats in the L.A. and they’ve got 60 listed.
The comment (in Pseph’s article) about the Nats waiting until the Upper House count is concluded before deciding who to support in the lower house is perhaps more interesting.
Rates Analyst
I agree, I wonder if they wants to overturn 1v1v and get 3 to 4 more Nat into parliament
the rumor earlier was they wanted 2 extra seats in the lower house as part of “the deal”
What’s the latest from Alfred Cove? Has Chris Back closed that 20-vote gap yet?
Overturning 1v1v would be ultra-regressive. Introducing 1v1v was one of Labor’s big achievements, going backwards on this would not be very good at all.
I don’t think there would be any reason for the Nationals to overturn 1v1v. They won 4 seats, and at a future election could quite possibly pick up Eyre, Pilbara, North-West and possibly even Kimberley. And then in the upper house they’re guaranteed about 3 seats and could quite possibly win 6 at the next election – 3 in agricultural, 2 in mining and pastoral and 1 in south-west. Assuming Grylls doesn’t lose the plot, surely they’re vote will only improve?
Duke @422: It depends. If the outcome of the current parliamentary situation is an unstable government, or a series of unstable governments, lurching from crisis to crisis and constantly having to bargain for Nat support, voters may think twice about supporting minor parties, and the Nats could suffer next time round. If the Nats want the role of kingmaker, then they have to be ready to make a king; they have to enter into a stable pact for government under which the terms on which they will guarantee supply are clear, well-understood and well-accepted, and they have to stick to it for the lifetime of the Parliament.
In Vic after the 99 election, 3 Inds supported Labor and Labor + Inds had a very thin 45-43 lower house majority over the Libs/Nats. This arrangement was stable for the 3 yrs that Parliament lasted, though Labor did improve its situation with surprise victories at the Burwood and Benalla by-elections. They still hold Burwood, though Benalla returned to the Nats at the 2002 election – Labor’s only loss in what was otherwise a crushing landslide.
Carpenter is going to get rolled soon by the right wing faction, so perhaps it’s a moot point whether or not he can negotiate an agreement with the Nats/independents.
The question is more whether Labor can negotiate an agreement with the Nats and/or independents. Carpenter is highly unlikely to remain as premier after this debacle, the issue is whether his party will remain in power.
Any updates this morning? I see Antony has given Kwinana back to Adams.
Carpenter has the numbers to survive. The question is will he want to if he cant bring the nats on board to form a government. There arent many options for leadership in the ALP ranks, Wyatt is too young and inexperienced, Mcgowan is too lightweight, McGinty is too hated by all bar the miscelaneous workers faction, Kobelke is a non starter. Really leaves michelle roberts who is probably too damaged or Allanah. Allanah by far and away is the most intellegent and hard working minister in the government, the question is of course is she electable and will she want to sit in opposition.
The whole issue of the negotiations is really alot more clear than it looks. Grylls is waiting to see if Riverton or less likely Wanneroo go Labor. If they do then the numbers for a stable Government with the Libs aren’t there and he will go with Labor. There is no way earth the Nats will favour ALP over Libs otherwise. So in reality it all depends on whether Labor get to 28 seats. That will entail a Lab/Nat/Ind Govt.
As for rolling Carpenter that will not be considered until after the settlement of whether there is a Lab Govt. He will have to stand aside if they lose Govt. Allannah is the only credible though difficult choice
Carpenter has to stay Labor leader whether in Government or not. He’s the only true leader they have.
My midday mail from the West:
Albany: Labor by 73
Collie-Preston: Labor by 335
Forrestfield: Labor by 115
Kwinana: Labor by 426
Morley: Lib by 396
Riverton: Lib by 50
Wanneroo: Lib by 93
Pilbara and North-West: safe for Labor
I think that means Labor cannot form a government except via a deal with the Nats.
You’re prepared to call Riverton then, Adam?
Those figures look awfully like the Labor figures from close of play yesterday. Is Kwinana really a possibility for Labor ?
Adam, I think those were the figures as at last night.
Peter Watson certainly can’t afford another bad batch of postals from the old Stirling part of the new Albany electorate.
Riverton may well go right down to the wire, and I concur with bogart that if Tony McRae gets up, Grylls will almost have to ally with Labor (at least in the short term).
I’m not calling anything, just reporting what I am told. They may be last night’s figures, I haven’t checked.
It will indeed be a sad irony if Carpenter loses because D’Orasio who acted so disreputably and had to be gotten rid of after the speeding fines fiasco and the superannuation issue and then finally the phoning corrupt policemen stuff is the one to give the Libs power by preferencing them in Morley
D’Orasio is no man of principle and has been shown to be only interested in himself. If he believed the issue was Carpenter why pref the Libs. It is a sad thing indeed to see a person so lacking in principle and it was clearly a mistake to ever have him parliament for Labor.
Does anyone know what the justification for the seats of Pilbara and Kimberley not being merged? They are both extremely small seats. I thought 1 vote 1 value meant this wouldn’t be the case or did it only apply to non labor seats.
436 Chris: they didn’t quite get rid of the gerrymander. There’s a ‘large district allowance’, which means Kalgoorlie, Eyre, Pilbara, North West and Kimberley can have less voters. They have to come up to a certain area for that to kick in, which I think is why Pilbara includes a weird shoe-shaped chunk of the Gibson Desert cut out of Kalgoorlie.
Looking at the upper house count, unless Labor can get to 38 seats in the lower house, it is unlikely the National will support them (then Labor can government with the Ind anyway)
If the Nat joins with Labor, they will only have 15 of the 36 upper house seat, meaning they will need the Liberals or the Green to support them to pass any legislation.
I will be surprise if National’s $750million scheme get pass the Greens or the Liberals in opposition
There really is no chance of a Labor – National partnership
No 409
Wayne Thompson, it may be helpful to launch a spell check before embarking on a rant that you want published.
Can anyone comment on Kwinana and the state of play there ?
Anthony Green’s ABC website is suggesting the Nats will get 3 seats in the agricultural region and Labor will be down to 1. So much for 1 vote, 1 value!
440 – the WAEC have only distributed preferences to Labor and Lib, not the Indep (why?). So still no rael picture is forming
Tony R… one vote, one value was never meant to apply to the Legislative Council.
It’s about time true democracy, or as close to it as possible was introduced in WA. So good on carps for at least seeing to that with 1 vot one value.
Thanks Otis but Adam at 430 previously was suggesting the numbers had it Labor up over 400 – I assume as the other numbers came from an insider that it has some validity but can anyone confirm this ?
The counting is outrageously slow. For goodness sake, we are now more than three days out from the election and they’ve only counted ~80-85%.
Hopefully the head (or heads) of someone at the WAEC head will roll after the complete dod’s breakfast they have made of this!! And to all you Tory apologists out there…dont try and blame Carp’s for this one. They should have been ready. No excuses!!
I’ve heard of some polling booths being told by the WAEC official in charge that we have an optional preferential system here and that just putting the no.1 in a single box was enough to make it formal (even when there were 6 candidates). Give me a break, thats just not good enuff!!
Bogart, last night a Labor scrutineer/insider called Shtuwang gave details for all close seats. On Kwinana, he said Labor was in front by 436, but based ONLY on votes counted after election day, no prefs for election night votes.
Bogart 445 – That is right on the primaries, but I have been scrutineering at the terminal and they didnt count any Kwinana primaries or preferences this morning. So Labor is ahead on primaries, but we have no idea what the TTP is.
p.s…..apols for the spelling and grammar errors in previous post. I got a tad worked up about it
The counting is random, slow and completely inconsitent. I am scared at the ineptitude frankly.
MGM, The Westminster system of democracy is supposed to be about regional representation. We’re not a city-state! One Vote One Value allows the city (metropolitan areas) to rule the state.
Er Simon – One vote one value upholds the fundamental equality of each vote which is the essentailly the definition of democracy. Any system that weighs votes in a particular way is therefore undemocratic. Whats next – immigrants only get half a vote because they are’nt proper Aussies?
447 mr orange – “I’ve heard of some polling booths being told by the WAEC official in charge that we have an optional preferential system here and that just putting the no.1 in a single box was enough to make it formal (even when there were 6 candidates). ” (sorry, don’t know how to do the quote thing). I posted about hearing on 6PR last night a scrutineer from Kwinana electorate talk about how WAEC has brought in workers from eastern states – have these people been instructing WA voters on what happens elsewhere in Australia?
# 452 Simon……quite frankly I dont (and never will) believe that just because you live east of Toodyay, north of Burns Beach or south of Bunbury, that your vote should be worth twice as much as mine!! Full stop.
Are we in Zimbabwe? Do they have to check every vote with Mugabe before posting it? This count has been so inept that it’s very hard to have any confidence that the final outcome will actually resemble the real vote.
Do we need the UN to send in the election scrutineers for the next WA election, which looks like being fairly soon?
yes bring in the UN
Otis Sebalius # 453, that means this year’s U.S. election won’t be democratic. They also use regional representation. Each state has a number of electoral college votes, which is designed to give each state representation rather than go by population.
#458
The state representation is based on population though, isn’t it? The same as the state allocation of federal electorates here.
I’d suggest some here read up on the history of our democracy! And how the Westminster system works.
rumors circulating that whitby is storming back in morley
oooerrr
still, cant see him getting across the line
MDMConnell, the fact that the federal government still takes so much from the West is why I understand the arguments over Secession.
From the ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/10/2360984.htm
# 458 Simon……you said it! Nobody in their right minds considers the US political/election process to be democratic….remember Florida??
Ease up on the WAEC a bit. It takes time to post absentee votes back to their home electorates for counting there. The AEC took more than 4 weeks to declare the Fed election result, the WAEC will probably have all lower house seats declared next week. Tomorrow is the last day postals can be accepted in WA, while federally it was almost 2 weeks after election day.
I wonder if that is because Britza wasn’t pre-selected until the final day of nominations and maybe Whitby when doorknocking had flyers with information on how to obtain a postal vote ?
ABC has Kwinana preferences now to Adams and ALP. Adams ahead but by less than 100 votes, with 73.5% counted.
It just defies belief 4 days from the election there is still 20% of 5 key seats still to count.
Frank @463, I’d be almost certain that means Absent votes.
# 467 required…..at last!
Required @463. The ABC has no inside knowledge on Kwinana. It is entirely my guess of preferences. But I’d say on the basis of primary votes, Labor can win that seat as the Independent needs 77% of preferences from the other 4 candidates, which would be unusually high. That percentage will rise with the counting of absent votes.
Antony
With Kwinana
Do you know of any situations at previous elections where a candidate achieved over 77% of the preference flow?
I know Cook was not preferenced by any other candidate before Adams.
I guess im asking if you expect 23% of these people to not follow the how to vote card and preference Cook higher than Adams?
The point with Morley is that people who voted postal or absentee didn’t get D’Orazio’s HTV card that put Libs ahead of Labor, and thus those who voted for D’Orazio before polling day or outside the electorate are probably much more likely to preference Labor.
And that is entirely correct, and if Reece does win Morley, then that’s the ultimate slap in the face for D’Orazio, who gives politicians of Italian descent are really bad name.
Indeed, Antony – since Saturday night I’ve thought that the deciding factor in Kwinana could well be how many Green preferences go to Carol Adams ahead of Labor. Can’t imagine it being a big majority.
And I wonder whether Labor are talking up their chances in Morley beyond what the actual figures suggest. Whitby was narrowing the gap yesterday, but he’d need an even bigger surge today to have a good shot.
Antony, 77% would be high but not surprising – in Kwinana, FF, Libs and Greens all preferenced Adams above Cook (ALP). Depends how many of their voters followed the HTV.
After the posturing of carol adams, i would love to see cook fall over the line in Kwinana.
Kim Beazley on 26 being the magic number.
http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/the-magic-number-for-wa-is-26-20080909-4ctb.html
Frank 447, not to mention Iemma, Costa, Tripodi, della Bosca, all NSW Labor with Italian names. Mum suggests the Mafia might have taken control of NSW Labor.
#472
Exactly, which is why I was confused when William Bowe and others seemed to write off the prospect of an ALP victory in Morley on Sunday or thereabouts.
# 477 rumpoleccat…..”After the posturing of carol adams, i would love to see cook fall over the line in Kwinana.”
I agree. After her antics the other day in front of parliament house, I would just love to see her wearing an omlete facial!
Lord D #472
D’Orazio is polling 16% of the vote. So if there were 20% (4000) postal and absentee votes, D’orazio would get at most 640. So to overcome a deficit of 396 a large percentage of these 640 would have to preference labor, when by voting D’Orazio they are indicating dissatisfaction with Labor, so this doesn’t seem likely.
481 – Its the stupidity of the greens that have put Labor in this position. Preferencing a woman who is a frightening combination of Pauline Hanson, Maggie T and Julie Bishaop, over someone who actually has environmental and social credentials.
its a shame really for the people of kwinana because roger cook is actually a really talented and decent guy. He’s been a champion of indigenous causes and has got a well developed sense of justice, not to mention that a guy of his talent would be guaranteed a ministry. Lets hope for the sake of the people of kwinana he falls over the line.
Lord D #479.
Costa is of Greek Cypriot background. And you forgot Frank Sartor.
Other than that I think your mum is on to something…
The only thing worse than NSW Labor is the Fatty O’Barrell led Liberal /National Coalition opposition.
Mike Baird will soon see off Fatty.
Re 451,
“Otis Sebalius Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
The counting is random, slow and completely inconsitent. I am scared at the ineptitude frankly.”
Yes, it does seem rather odd. Can someone who is familiar with the count please tell me why it is taking so long? I worked the NSW state election in March 07 and will be working the ACT election next month in October as well. For the NSW election, we were required to count the lower house ballots at the polling place before we went home and then report the number in. Other polling places were the same I am sure. Why does the WA process not work like that? It seems like you should get an immediate result evident within 24 to 48 hours excepting seats like that one in the Federal election which was so close it was recounted each way several times. Those should be the exception, not the rule though. What piece of the puzzle am I missing to understand why WA isn’t following this pattern of counting votes? Most confusing and frustrating ……
On Kwinana, 77% is high by the standards of elections I’ve covered. I’ve factored in 85% of Liberal preferences to flow to her, and 70% of all other candidates to get her just ahead of Labor. The Liberal preferences might reach 90%, but 70% as a total of all other parties is relatively high. Greens preferences can reach 80% when choosing between labor and Liberal candidates, but not always as high in other cases. Adams will be helped by the Donkey vote.
On polling day, Labor polled 41.2% and Adams 25.8%. Those %’s are now 42.0% and 24.0%. As Adams vote slips, the percentage of preferences required to get her ahead of Labor will increase.
On your calculations, Lenwx, I’d expect at least 400-450 of the D’Orazio votes to second preference Labor. It’s how the other 3440 split that will decide the outcome of the seat in my opinion.
people who voted D’Orazio without a HTV card out of personal following would not have assumed his disgraceful last minute recommendation.
Fagin,
There is NOTHING worse than NSW Labor. Maybe Mugabe and Mbeki, but nothing else.
Oh, come,come, Chris. Howard’s last government was much worse than any you mention.
Julie, the count is taking as long as normal and as long as in other states. It is actually shorter than a Federal count. The main difference is that the WAEC does not do preference counts after polling day, so unlike other states, there are no updated preference figures. That is why there is so much guess work.
Secondly, this is a very close election. The closer the contest, the slower the count, mainly because there is a lot more scrutineering and the scrutineers insist on a close look at every ballot. No doubt the same will be going on with the check of details of declaration vote ebvelopes.
It toook a long time to sort out McEwen at last year’s Federal election for exactly the same reason, but we had the advantage that preference counts were released, and also that McEwen wasn’t critical to the outcome.
“Its (sic) the stupidity of the greens (sic) that have (sic) put Labor in this position”
What tosh.
I thought that it might have something to do with the WA ALP being on the nose in the electorate. Perhaps WA Labor is a bit arrogant as well.
Blaming the Greens for the ALP’s poor performance is comical at best. There’s a forest through those trees.
Will the ALP blame the Greens when they (the Greens) win a couple of “safe” ALP Legislative Assembly seats at the 2011 NSW state election?
Screwing up everything and having non achievements. No Australian government has ever been that bad. Not even Whitlam.
Felling a bit green around the gills, Fagin? That’s an awful lot of sic (sic) that you’re throwing around.
You have to laugh at Carol Adams saying the Government hasn’t given the electorate anything – They gave them a bloody Railway line so they can go to Perth by Train with
Fagin – you miss the point, I’m talking specifically about Kwinana not the entire electorate. Labor polls very well in kwinana and the greens (yes with a small ‘g’) and and it will be the greens and libs that get Adams over the line – see the irony?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/10/2361054.htm
says it all
Just have patience
there is everything to play for after all
I must admit i am feeling more confident about Albany, especially considering the Libs will snare the lions share of the Nat preferences.
Albany, Riverton and Wanneroo will i think fall to the Libs, the rest to the ALP.
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