NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
602 Comments
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The counting is random, slow and completely inconsitent. I am scared at the ineptitude frankly.
MGM, The Westminster system of democracy is supposed to be about regional representation. We’re not a city-state! One Vote One Value allows the city (metropolitan areas) to rule the state.
Er Simon – One vote one value upholds the fundamental equality of each vote which is the essentailly the definition of democracy. Any system that weighs votes in a particular way is therefore undemocratic. Whats next – immigrants only get half a vote because they are’nt proper Aussies?
447 mr orange – “I’ve heard of some polling booths being told by the WAEC official in charge that we have an optional preferential system here and that just putting the no.1 in a single box was enough to make it formal (even when there were 6 candidates). ” (sorry, don’t know how to do the quote thing). I posted about hearing on 6PR last night a scrutineer from Kwinana electorate talk about how WAEC has brought in workers from eastern states – have these people been instructing WA voters on what happens elsewhere in Australia?
# 452 Simon……quite frankly I dont (and never will) believe that just because you live east of Toodyay, north of Burns Beach or south of Bunbury, that your vote should be worth twice as much as mine!! Full stop.
Are we in Zimbabwe? Do they have to check every vote with Mugabe before posting it? This count has been so inept that it’s very hard to have any confidence that the final outcome will actually resemble the real vote.
Do we need the UN to send in the election scrutineers for the next WA election, which looks like being fairly soon?
yes bring in the UN
Otis Sebalius # 453, that means this year’s U.S. election won’t be democratic. They also use regional representation. Each state has a number of electoral college votes, which is designed to give each state representation rather than go by population.
#458
The state representation is based on population though, isn’t it? The same as the state allocation of federal electorates here.
I’d suggest some here read up on the history of our democracy! And how the Westminster system works.
rumors circulating that whitby is storming back in morley
oooerrr
still, cant see him getting across the line
MDMConnell, the fact that the federal government still takes so much from the West is why I understand the arguments over Secession.
From the ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/10/2360984.htm
# 458 Simon……you said it! Nobody in their right minds considers the US political/election process to be democratic….remember Florida??
Ease up on the WAEC a bit. It takes time to post absentee votes back to their home electorates for counting there. The AEC took more than 4 weeks to declare the Fed election result, the WAEC will probably have all lower house seats declared next week. Tomorrow is the last day postals can be accepted in WA, while federally it was almost 2 weeks after election day.
I wonder if that is because Britza wasn’t pre-selected until the final day of nominations and maybe Whitby when doorknocking had flyers with information on how to obtain a postal vote ?
ABC has Kwinana preferences now to Adams and ALP. Adams ahead but by less than 100 votes, with 73.5% counted.
It just defies belief 4 days from the election there is still 20% of 5 key seats still to count.
Frank @463, I’d be almost certain that means Absent votes.
# 467 required…..at last!
Required @463. The ABC has no inside knowledge on Kwinana. It is entirely my guess of preferences. But I’d say on the basis of primary votes, Labor can win that seat as the Independent needs 77% of preferences from the other 4 candidates, which would be unusually high. That percentage will rise with the counting of absent votes.
Antony
With Kwinana
Do you know of any situations at previous elections where a candidate achieved over 77% of the preference flow?
I know Cook was not preferenced by any other candidate before Adams.
I guess im asking if you expect 23% of these people to not follow the how to vote card and preference Cook higher than Adams?
The point with Morley is that people who voted postal or absentee didn’t get D’Orazio’s HTV card that put Libs ahead of Labor, and thus those who voted for D’Orazio before polling day or outside the electorate are probably much more likely to preference Labor.
And that is entirely correct, and if Reece does win Morley, then that’s the ultimate slap in the face for D’Orazio, who gives politicians of Italian descent are really bad name.
Indeed, Antony – since Saturday night I’ve thought that the deciding factor in Kwinana could well be how many Green preferences go to Carol Adams ahead of Labor. Can’t imagine it being a big majority.
And I wonder whether Labor are talking up their chances in Morley beyond what the actual figures suggest. Whitby was narrowing the gap yesterday, but he’d need an even bigger surge today to have a good shot.
Antony, 77% would be high but not surprising – in Kwinana, FF, Libs and Greens all preferenced Adams above Cook (ALP). Depends how many of their voters followed the HTV.
After the posturing of carol adams, i would love to see cook fall over the line in Kwinana.
Kim Beazley on 26 being the magic number.
http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/the-magic-number-for-wa-is-26-20080909-4ctb.html
Frank 447, not to mention Iemma, Costa, Tripodi, della Bosca, all NSW Labor with Italian names. Mum suggests the Mafia might have taken control of NSW Labor.
#472
Exactly, which is why I was confused when William Bowe and others seemed to write off the prospect of an ALP victory in Morley on Sunday or thereabouts.
# 477 rumpoleccat…..”After the posturing of carol adams, i would love to see cook fall over the line in Kwinana.”
I agree. After her antics the other day in front of parliament house, I would just love to see her wearing an omlete facial!
Lord D #472
D’Orazio is polling 16% of the vote. So if there were 20% (4000) postal and absentee votes, D’orazio would get at most 640. So to overcome a deficit of 396 a large percentage of these 640 would have to preference labor, when by voting D’Orazio they are indicating dissatisfaction with Labor, so this doesn’t seem likely.
481 – Its the stupidity of the greens that have put Labor in this position. Preferencing a woman who is a frightening combination of Pauline Hanson, Maggie T and Julie Bishaop, over someone who actually has environmental and social credentials.
its a shame really for the people of kwinana because roger cook is actually a really talented and decent guy. He’s been a champion of indigenous causes and has got a well developed sense of justice, not to mention that a guy of his talent would be guaranteed a ministry. Lets hope for the sake of the people of kwinana he falls over the line.
Lord D #479.
Costa is of Greek Cypriot background. And you forgot Frank Sartor.
Other than that I think your mum is on to something…
The only thing worse than NSW Labor is the Fatty O’Barrell led Liberal /National Coalition opposition.
Mike Baird will soon see off Fatty.
Re 451,
“Otis Sebalius Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
The counting is random, slow and completely inconsitent. I am scared at the ineptitude frankly.”
Yes, it does seem rather odd. Can someone who is familiar with the count please tell me why it is taking so long? I worked the NSW state election in March 07 and will be working the ACT election next month in October as well. For the NSW election, we were required to count the lower house ballots at the polling place before we went home and then report the number in. Other polling places were the same I am sure. Why does the WA process not work like that? It seems like you should get an immediate result evident within 24 to 48 hours excepting seats like that one in the Federal election which was so close it was recounted each way several times. Those should be the exception, not the rule though. What piece of the puzzle am I missing to understand why WA isn’t following this pattern of counting votes? Most confusing and frustrating ……
On Kwinana, 77% is high by the standards of elections I’ve covered. I’ve factored in 85% of Liberal preferences to flow to her, and 70% of all other candidates to get her just ahead of Labor. The Liberal preferences might reach 90%, but 70% as a total of all other parties is relatively high. Greens preferences can reach 80% when choosing between labor and Liberal candidates, but not always as high in other cases. Adams will be helped by the Donkey vote.
On polling day, Labor polled 41.2% and Adams 25.8%. Those %’s are now 42.0% and 24.0%. As Adams vote slips, the percentage of preferences required to get her ahead of Labor will increase.
On your calculations, Lenwx, I’d expect at least 400-450 of the D’Orazio votes to second preference Labor. It’s how the other 3440 split that will decide the outcome of the seat in my opinion.
people who voted D’Orazio without a HTV card out of personal following would not have assumed his disgraceful last minute recommendation.
Fagin,
There is NOTHING worse than NSW Labor. Maybe Mugabe and Mbeki, but nothing else.
Oh, come,come, Chris. Howard’s last government was much worse than any you mention.
Julie, the count is taking as long as normal and as long as in other states. It is actually shorter than a Federal count. The main difference is that the WAEC does not do preference counts after polling day, so unlike other states, there are no updated preference figures. That is why there is so much guess work.
Secondly, this is a very close election. The closer the contest, the slower the count, mainly because there is a lot more scrutineering and the scrutineers insist on a close look at every ballot. No doubt the same will be going on with the check of details of declaration vote ebvelopes.
It toook a long time to sort out McEwen at last year’s Federal election for exactly the same reason, but we had the advantage that preference counts were released, and also that McEwen wasn’t critical to the outcome.
“Its (sic) the stupidity of the greens (sic) that have (sic) put Labor in this position”
What tosh.
I thought that it might have something to do with the WA ALP being on the nose in the electorate. Perhaps WA Labor is a bit arrogant as well.
Blaming the Greens for the ALP’s poor performance is comical at best. There’s a forest through those trees.
Will the ALP blame the Greens when they (the Greens) win a couple of “safe” ALP Legislative Assembly seats at the 2011 NSW state election?
Screwing up everything and having non achievements. No Australian government has ever been that bad. Not even Whitlam.
Felling a bit green around the gills, Fagin? That’s an awful lot of sic (sic) that you’re throwing around.
You have to laugh at Carol Adams saying the Government hasn’t given the electorate anything – They gave them a bloody Railway line so they can go to Perth by Train with
Fagin – you miss the point, I’m talking specifically about Kwinana not the entire electorate. Labor polls very well in kwinana and the greens (yes with a small ‘g’) and and it will be the greens and libs that get Adams over the line – see the irony?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/10/2361054.htm
says it all
Just have patience
there is everything to play for after all
I must admit i am feeling more confident about Albany, especially considering the Libs will snare the lions share of the Nat preferences.
Albany, Riverton and Wanneroo will i think fall to the Libs, the rest to the ALP.
Morley is gone for all money.
Fulvio
Just because Howard was not to your political persuation does not means he was a bad PM
the economy was going great, unemployment was low, business expended to create jobs, tax was lowered, tax systems was reformed (GST).
He did it in an era of high AU$, drought and manufacturing job losses
All you have to look at is the NSW ALP Government to see what could have been.
The NSW ALP went through the same economic cycle as Howard’s government, it shared in the mining boom with the coal mines. Yet the state is in a $1 Billion dollar budget deficit
And we are not in the days of 18% interest rate that we were under Hawke and keating
There was a survey in the SMH, that ranked Howard as the 9th best PM in our history, that is the unbias view
I was trying to be funny, dovif.
However all humour is based on an element of truth, and the vigour of your reaction only reinforces it.
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