NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
602 Comments
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Is it just me or is this the most incompetent effort to date by the WAEC. I cant believe how slow they have been in getting the count done. any reason why this result is dragging out so long!
Adam, the actions of neither Parl nor the Exec can be challenged because of any electoral misadventure, let alone error in the make up of Parl. It’s ‘non-justiciable’ in the jargon.
Whoever the Gov swears in is the Exec. And whoever the WAEC returns as elected are the MPs, if and until a Court of Disputed Returns picks MPs off, one by one.
That said, it’s timely that the Fed Court in the McEwen petition asserted its independent right to read disputed ballots how it pleased, without deference to the ECs rulings.
And yes, politically a govt would look silly and weak if it relied on the vote of an MP under challenge. Although wasn’t Goss in that position in his last days, before the Mundingburra re-election?
My bet: if Riverton decided govt, the judge would be very keen to throw it back to ‘the people’
301 – It’s a Zimbabwe scenario. The counting will be clarified next week and the outcome will be sorted. It can take days and weeks for some of those remote area ballot boxes to come in after all.
Some of those whitey Rhodesians and South Africans living in Perth would be all too familiar with the scenario.
10pse, any side which gets 30 seats (and no more) will just have to pray there’s no by-election!
10pse, the other party would have to have 29 seats of course. Then a by-election would decide the fate of the government.
Another thought:
With the WAEC apparently caught unprepared and understaffed, the potential for errors, miscounts, lost votes, etc is probably much higher than usual. It’s hard to see this NOT ending up in court no matter which way it goes.
I make the trend in Riverton as towards Labor, not to the Libs.
I’ve been tracking waec updates.
With 18,601 counted, McRae was on 40.06 but that has now gone up to 40.17 with 18,983 counted. Over the same period Nahan is down from 41.62 to 41.48.
1.31% is not much of a lead with 10.22% green preferences to dole out.
Wanneroo on the other hand has been trending to the Libs.
The Tonkin Labor Government held office with the casting vote of the Speaker from 71 to 74. It was a relatively stable Government and survived 4 by-elections, one caused by the untimely death of the Speaker whilst Parliament was sitting.
Peter at 307 – that is correct…. the trend has gone sligtly to labor in riverton
the trend is towards libs in wanneroo, forrestfield, albany.
morley trend relatively flat
collie also trending liberal but will prob fall short by about 95 votes
To be fair to the WAEC, they can’t keep thousands of people in election mode for the whole four-year term on the offchance that the premier will call a snap election. They had to cope with a massive redistribution, and no doubt they had a plan to be ready by the due date of the election.
Solution: fixed terms!
Agree 100%
#297 required…”I know he has a lisp, but he’s all man I believe….”
or are you speaking from personal experience??
Surely, after this, no matter who wins fixed terms will be introduced. Didn’t the Libs vote against this measure when Labor tried to introduce it?
Adam and Dario,
I can only assume you don’t live in NSW where everyone is aghast that fixed 4 year terms means we have 30 months to wait before we can get rid of our incompetent retread government.
Fixed terms should mean just that. The Libs are just frightened that Labor maybe able to reduce a thorough thrashing to a defeat. It could mean the difference between a one term conservative government and a two term one.
No, I’m from NSW, but what difference would it make here other than waiting a little longer to replace an incompetent government with an incompetent opposition?
Dario – can i ask on what basis you say the NSW opposition is incompetent? We know the NSW government is, because they have governed, and done it abysmally…
But we can’t possibly know the opposition to be incompetent… they have not been given the chance to govern.
labor woule be smarter to have engineered a poll now in nsw then to wait. in 2008 they may have been able to save some furniture, in 2011 it will be a bloodbath. Watch the rats leave over the next 2 years – should be fun.
I am all for fixed term in NSW, lets make the fix term of this government 1 day
I would wonder if they lose half the seats
If they run a referendum, they will get 75% to overthrow the government
When the NSW right give the premier to the Left, then give the deputy to the left as well, you know they will be saying
“Look the left lost us the election …. lets never go there again”
As a matter of fact I do now live 100 metres inside NSW.
Gasp! I agree with Edward! As soon as Fatty O’Barrell rejected electricity privatisation (Liberals for state ownership!), Iemma should have engineered a no confidence vote (they do it regularly in the Knesset) and gone to the polls. He could have said “The socialist O’Barrell and his team of trotskyites will bankrupt the state with their mad plan for state ownership. Vote for Labor, free enterprise and cheaper electricity!” He’d have won in a canter. Now he’s history.
All predictions from conservative supporters are well and good but it doesn’t make an election happen and it won’t.
WAEC updated site
Labor needs to abandon its policy of electricity privatisation and leave to the Libs. “It won’t happen under us but it will under the Libs”. It wouldn’t save them but it would give them a stick to belt the Libs with.
It’s clear electricity privatisation is as popular as a brown thingy in a swimming pool up there.
this is the wa election thread, keep it on topic please!
what is the status of all these seats at play?
I’ve read on thewest.com.au that libs have edged ahead in wanneroo and riverton and van onselen is tipping them to libs (of course)
however im guessing thewest is not up to current info..
Are you saying Nelson isn’t incompetent because he hasn’t had the chance to govern? Puhleese
WA site has been updated.
Implications are:
Morley still looks safe for Libs
North west still looks safe for Labor
Riverton still obviously too close to call.
Libs still in box seat in Wanneroo, though Labor has turned trend around a little.
Labor seems to have reversed the narrowing in Albany, so maybe they will hold on there.
Libs still closing in Forrestfield…. I think in a day or so it will be another Riverton
Libs closing in Colliee-Preston… may fall short, but looking more a possibility with each update
Sorry about that, I thought I was on the other thread. It’s easy to lose track.
They’re basing it on an interview Van Onsolen did on 6PR.
BTW, did anyone see the Front Page of the West ? I think Grylls is going to be the West’s new whipping boy if the Libs don’t get over the line.
Mmmm, anymore predictions? I’m leaning towards the West Australian’s analysis (’Labor hopes rest on knife-edge seats’):
“The most likely outcome is that the Liberals will win 24 seats, Labor 27, the Nationals four with four Independents”
Since when was Peter Van Howardbiographer a psephologist?
The West’s latest story on the tally:
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96948
Ever since he’s become the WA Media’s Election “Expert” of choice – he’s young and funky, unlike the old fogeys David Black & Harry Phillips.
Wot about Our William? Is he not young and funky??
William needs to start wearing a Hawaiian shirt in the style of Dr Karl, then he’d get more press
328 Frank: Yep, saw it passing through the busport. That headline ‘The best little whorehouse in Australia’ really stood out… I didn’t have time to stop and read it, but I’m guessing the West has a big article inside on why the two party system and Lib/Nat coalition is the One True Way?
No, but Paul Murray is blaming Labor for introducing One Vote One Value and how it’s caused this result.
Gad yes, what a terrible idea it was allowing the proletariat to vote! Wouldn’t have happened in Sir John Forrest’s day, what?
I still can never quite believe it when people advocate a gerrymander, particularly in chambers with single-member districts such as the legislative assembly.
I think Dr Bruce Stone at UWA would be a good media contact for these stories, but he never seems to get a mention. Perhaps he turns down media requests, I’m not sure.
Gees, The West are talking up a Liberal Victory in almost every article, even this on who will be in charge if an Emergency occurs.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96964
If the National and Liberals gets the majority of both houses, I think they should copy Labor and the Greens and rig the system
they can introduce 1v0v for all the labor seats they get one vote, but it will be 0 value
Matt C,
I think Bruce, like most academics, doesn’t really like to get involved with the media stuff on a day to day basis.
Fair enough, it can be quite time consuming.
Don’t know what’s caused it (perhaps just a web glitch) but the total votes counted in Riverton has just gone backwards with both Lib and Lab strengthening against the greens, on the waec site.
It used to say 19237 counted, now its down to 18,537!
Fixed terms:
How do they work, in a situation where no potential premier can command the confidence of the Assembly? Caretaker governement for the unexpired balance of the fixed term? Surely not?
I would think the governor would have the power to call for another election under those circumstances. You’d think though that one group or other could combine to reach the necessary 30 mark. if that broke up another group would try it. Instability reigns supreme.
So much for The West’s scare campaign on City Projects/promises being scrapped under a Nationals alliance with Labor.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/coalition-government-more-unified-carpenter-20080909-4cmk.html
Frank
No he will just make sure the $700 Mil is spend on the country, that is just the starting point
Carpenter can do what he want with the city project, ie go into debt to fulfill election promise or Scrap them
The National would not push for it to be scrapped
Matt C – did you do pols at UWA in ‘99 and 2000?
Gary @ 345: Do you mean the Governor decides for himself to dissolve Parliament? Surely not. Presumably, he can only do so on the advice of a Premier who has lost the confidence of the Assembly. But a Premier who has lost confidence will almost always advise this, if the only alternative is advising the Governor to send for the leader of the opposition.
So, if the fall of the government can lead to a dissolution, in what sense are there “fixed terms”?
Anybody know how this works in those states which have “fixed terms”? Plus, anybody know why fixed terms are considered a good idea? It seems obvious that it will tend to promote instability of government. For obvious reasons, MPs strongly dislike elections, and the threat of an election is one of the incentives they have to make stable commitments to support governments.
If a government continued to suffer defeats, and no alternative government could be found, an early election would take place. If the Carpenter government stayed in office but kept being defeated, it would eventually have to resign. Colin Barnett would be offerred the Premiership. If he declined unless he would be granted an election, Carpenter would continue in office, but if defeated again would have to have an early election, or else the Goveror would agree to barnett’s alternative offer of a Premiership with right of an election.
That is how the convention used to work, but it is about 60 years since it was applied in Australia. It may be in this era when strong government is required, the Governor may agree to the first request for a dissolution.
The convention is that if a government is defeated, and the opposition is commissioned and defeated, or declines a commission, then the first defeated government has the right to be caretaker government into the election. It is only on rare occassions, such as the sacking of the Whitlam and Lang government, that the opposition is appointed government ahead of the election. If the Carpenter government were defeated and Barnett would only agree to take office on promise of a dissolution, then the Governor by convention would offer to leave Carpenter in place pending an early election.
We haven’t seen such a situation since Victoria and Tasmania in the 1950s.
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