NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
602 Comments
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Interesting…..According to Antony Green, Kwinana has swung back to ALP retain again.
Do the Nationals actually have projects (new hospitals, roads, railways, whatever) they want built in the country that are worth $700 million? I’m interested where that figure comes from.
#348
99, no. I started in 2000.
I wonder if the Nats want the state govt to buy back the wheat rail network? It got privatised a few years ago, currently owned by Babcock and Brown who are in quite deep trouble at the moment (there was talk of lines being closed to save money last month).
Long post, but here goes. Conventions related to early dissolution, taken from R.D.Lumb, ‘Constitutions of the Australian States’.
(1) A State Governor should take every opportunity to see that Supply, including interim supply, is secured before granting a dissoluitoon. This is to enable the ordinary operation of government to be carried on.
(2) A request by a Premier, defeated at an election, for a dissolution before parliament meets should be refused.
(3) A government which enjoys the support of the Lower House is ordinarily not entitled to a dissolution in the early life (i.e. the first year) of the new parliament. There are exceptions to this rule: if the opposition agrees, if some important new issue of public policy has arisen, or where there has been major change in the parliamentary situation, or where the premier resigns and no alternative government is possible.
(4) In cases where a premier having the support of the Lower House makes a request for a dissolution this request will invariably be granted subject to the qualification expressed in (3). This will lead to a premature election, but accords with the basic principles of representative government and responsible government.
(5) A government that has been defeated in a critical division (i.e. on Supply or a vote of confidence) has the options of resigning and requesting a dissolution of the Lower House. A request may be based on the grounds outlined in (3). If, however, an alternative government is possible, the governor may commission a new premier, but in most cases the defeated premier would be granted a dissolution.
(6) In certain circumstances where there have been successive requests, the former being refused to a ‘majority’ premier, the latter being made to a ‘minority’ premier, it is proper for the governor to refuse the request of the ‘minority’ government and recommission the former government, granting its request. (This last happened in Victoria in 1952)
(7) In those states where an Upper House has the power to refuse supply and exercises it, the options referred to in (5) will be available to the Premier.
All of the above was set down before fixed term Parliaments. All the fixed term provisions have instituted ‘baton change’ provisions that clarify the operation of (3).
Mr Orange, I have no idea what’s happening in Kwinana. There are no preference counts. We are guessing preferences.
Antony,
Thanks for your comment regarding conventions relating to early dissolution.
With regards to Morley, do you think it will be possible to form any preliminary estimations of the 2CP vote, or will we have to wait for the full preference count to see how D’Orazio’s preferences split?
Anthony @ 350 and 355: Thanks; now I get it. Presumably in a fixed term law the operation of convention (3) is not only “clarified”, but extended beyond the first year of the parliament.
Still looks like a bad idea to me. It greatly reduces the cost to a minor group/individual MP in a balance-of-power situation of withdrawing support from the government in office and offering it to the opposition. Completely the opposite incentive to what we should be looking for if we want stable governments.
Bird of paradox @ 352: It’s a percentage of the State’s revenues from minerals. (25%, if I recall correctly.) The Nats haven’t specified particular projects; they want it put into a fund earmarked to pay for regional infrastructure projects. Presumably any relevant local or central government authority can put forward suitable projects.
351 Kwinana – WAEC has a notional distribution of prefs to ALP and LIB despite Adams polling higher in primary votes than the Lib. The ABC website has the same hence the prediction ALP retain.
Need to wait till there is some preference distribution to Adams, not Lib, to get a better idea. However I don’t believe Adams has it in the bag – she’s being far too cocky and the media is getting too excited about her as an independent.
Antony
Those regulations are pretty complicated and must be beyond the skills of interpretation of most, if not all, Governors. I know the Governor is the final arbiter of these things but who does the Governor go to before delivering his/her “verdict”.
This is driving me up the wall
On Thurday and Friday I will actually getting myself one of those shinny scrutineer badges, then I can go and see wtf is happening down there. (and argue over Libs ballots with messy writting, 7’s with the stroke through them and 4’s that don’t join at the top)
I don’t even want to wait that long. wow….I need a life!!!
being blind as well?
Id like to see that.
re post 314
fixed terms are a fixture of a democratic system…… unless a government
loses the confidence of the parliament… the voters decide at the due
time. the other alternative is a government can manipulate the timing of elections
so they stay in forever
allllll weeeeee are sayyyyying is give waec a chaaaaaaaaance
*all together now*
allllll weeeeee are sayyyyying is give waec a chaaaaaaaaance
Diogenes @ 359: On the rare occasions when a governor is not required by constitutional convention to act on the advice of ministers, he’s supposed to take his own decisions. The one quality a governor needs above all others is a willingness to take a decision when a decision has to be taken. That’s why, historically, governors have tended to be drawn quite often from a pool of retired generals and retired judges.
He can take advice from anyone he likes, but it’s not advice in the ministerial sense; it’s the opinion of anyone whose opinion he thinks it will be helpful to consult in making his decision. I would guess that a governor in this situation would consider talking to QCs with expertise in constitutional matters and/or former governors.
Mick @ 314: In parliamentary democracies, I think fixed terms are exceptional. Subject to a maximum term which can be anywhere from three to five years and to conventions like those Anthony has set out, the norm is that governments are free to hold a general election when they want.
The power to “manipulate the timing of elections” does not give governments the opportunity to stay in forever (as Carps has just demonstrated). We voters may be stupid, but we’re not [i]that[/i] stupid.
FreoBloke
Can the Governor’s decision be appealed in the High Court? Who ultimately is in charge of our country?
I’ve updated my results at the top of the page. Liberal Paul Miles all but claiming victory in Wanneroo.
Forrestfield: ALP now 151 votes ahead… 8673 v 8522…Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
^ scrutineer error corrected…
A Governor’s decision on a dissolution cannot be reviewed by the courts.
I am seriously struggling with the news that WAEC isn’t updating figures properly
Its just completely unforgivable in this day and age…a key democratic process like this needs to be transparent and clean as a whistle, not subject to doubt and speculation
Thanks to William B for this forum, it feels like Im better informed by logging on here than to an offical wbsite
Albany now 73 votes ahead
ALP – Watson LIB – Partington
9169 9096 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8750 8630 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8182 8065 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Collie-Preston now 335 votes ahead
ALP – Murray LIB – Thomas
9159 8824 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8672 8263 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8299 7883 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Forrestfield now 115 votes ahead
ALP – Waddell LIB – Morton
9307 9192 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8673 8522 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8177 7935 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Kwinana * now 426 votes ahead
ALP – Cook IND – Adams
1788 1362 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
* Figures based on early & postal votes as of Mon 7/9/08 and do not include Saturday’s results – therefore not an accurate two party preferred count.
Morley now 396 votes behind
ALP – Whitby LIB – Britza
9180 9576 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8548 9049 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
7804 8327 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Riverton now 50 votes behind
ALP – McRae LIB – Nahan
9247 9297 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8176 8247 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
8002 8034 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Wanneroo now 93 votes behind
ALP – Guise LIB – Miles
8896 8989 Votes as at 5pm 9/9/08
8569 8646 Votes as at 5pm 8/9/08
7299 7293 Votes as at 5pm 7/9/08
Just thinking, but looking at the William’s table, it looks as if Green’s preferences will decide the Government in WA but that the Nats will dispose of the booty?
Mr Squiggle, how do you think I feel having to deal with endless official complaints to the ABC because our website is not up to date.
Hi Anthony, (AKA the Pseph-lord)
it can’t be an easy gig just now
However, if you ever move out of commentary and into public service, please give the WAEC a close look –
just now, it feels like they could do with some guidance
Thanks very much for all that info, Shtuwang.
Hello Shtuwang,
Its the narrowing!!!! –
I knew I’d see it one day
Boerwar,
“Don’t mention The Greens”
The Greens have been deciding who is elected across Australia for quite some time.
The elephant in the room has been ignored by the MSM thus delegating them somewhat irrelevant.
Any one with observation skills can see the massive growth of Green voters across Australia.
The 2PP Club is over.
Bah the greens – rentseekers the lot of them!
A few snippets from callers that I heard on the way home whilst scanning the AM radio stations (I think it was 6PR):
1. Use TAB instead of WAEC for voting – if they can handle 188 million bets on Melbourne Cup day and pay out a short while after the race is run, then they should be able to handle counting the votes a lot better than WAEC and the “polling places” are already set up in most suburbs and even some country towns.
2. One caller was a scrutineer at Kwinana electorate and reported many voters turning up for voting not realising their electorate had changed. Also voters not on electoral roll where they expected to be. Apparently many country voters didn’t get to vote.
3. This guy reported that WAEC imported in 1500 electoral workers from outside WA for this election and us dear taxpayers are paying for their air fares, accommodation, meals, wages and God knows what else. Estimated cost to us in WA is $15m.
4. Questions over accuracy and efficiency of using pencils and paper to vote and look at electronic system where voters put in a PIN to vote and data already put in a computer so that counting can be done easily and quickly.
the Greens never “Decide” who wins, because they always preference Labor. They simply help Labor.
shtuwang
do you know how much more votes to count
Albany is 51.1-48.9 to Lib
Morley is 50.3-49.7 to Lib
Forestville is 52.7-47.3 to Lib
If there is 2000 more vote to count in Albany and Forestvills and they head the same rate
Liberal would win both of them, and Liberal would have 45 seats to ALP 44
Liberal would win both of them, and Liberal would have 45 seats to ALP 44
Dovif, an error there, they don’t add up to the number of seats in parliament.
There is a new WA seat we don’t know about?
should read 46-45 Labor, 4 Nat, 2 Lib Ind, 2 Lab Ind
It’s Forrestfield – it seems our Conservative bloogers can’t spell out suburbs, even those like Glen who have claimed to live here.
dovif: There are only 59 seats in the parliament?
nope…
Just a quick one that no one seems to have mentioned… in 2pp terms the Libs have beaten Labor roughly 51.5 – 48.5. Under these circumstances Labor would be incredibly lucky if they hung on… though that is looking unlikely
No 310
Fixed terms are an abomination. They should be flexible with a maximum possible term of no more than 3 years. After living under fixed term hell in NSW, I do not wish it on any state or territory.
I thought that once an election was called you had to cease all employment, especially if you were a Councillor or Deputy Mayor, or even Mayor ?
If this is the case, then several candidates who are in Local Government are in deep doo doo.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/radio-parking-tips-for-perth-commuters-20080909-4ckl.html
If you are opposed to fixed terms then you have to accept the corollary – premiers will call snap elections when it suits them, electoral authorities will be caught unprepared, and there will be the consequent expense we have seen in WA. Take your pick.
Frank, re 392, I do not believe there is any legislation that prevents a local government councillor from being a State Parliamentarian. I do not have the time to dig out the relevant legislative provisions tonight, but unless somebody else beats me to it, I will do so tomorrow.
It is imperative that there is a mechanism to get rid of a government that is not workable, or in which the public has lost confidence, etc. However, as a population we must question why we so have so many politicians in the first place, with their too-generous allowances, superannuation, hangers-on and the rest of the package. Also, while we’re at it, question why we need the WAEC as well as the AEC, and the whole preferential voting system. Perhaps if the Greens didn’t give away their sizeable votes so freely to Labor, they might even get some candidates into the lower house. They almost managed it in Fremantle – they could have provided a major service to WA by ridding us of McGinty. The wasted resources and the cost of supporting a bunch of mainly incompetents around the country is mind-boggling, when health, education, justice and infrastructure are in such a poor state, at least in WA.
If you think the greens are going to provide more quality candidates you are not part of this world.
re: Generic Person
Generic Person,
Fixed terms of the NSW parliament were introduced via a referendum.
The referendum question was:
Do you approve of the Bill entitled: “A Bill for an Act to require the Parliament of NSW to serve full 4-year terms and to prevent politicians calling early general elections or changing those new constitutional rules without a referendum?
The results were: YES 2,449,796 & NO 795,706
That’s over 3/4 of NSW voters in favour of fixed 4 year terms.
I suggest that if you don’t like it, either leave NSW or don’t vote for that nasty Liberal Party that introduced the referendum.
I am contemplating leaving Sydney actually. I quite like Perth.
382 Strugglestreet: if you reckon Greens preferences always favour Labor exclusively, look closer. There’s no better way to illustrate this than the seat of Churchlands, where only three candidates ran, and the Greens came last.
The primary vote: Constable 68.3%, ALP 17.7%, Greens 14.0%.
The 2CP result, excluding just the Greens: Constable 74.4%, ALP 25.6%.
Therefore, Greens prefs split 6.1% / 7.9% to Constable / ALP, ie: 56% of Greens voters preferenced ALP, and the other 44% went for Constable.
See? Look closer, you learn stuff.
392 Frank: Clover Moore is both member for Sydney in the NSW parliament and Lord Mayor of Sydney City Council, so I don’t imagine there’s rules against a dual role of that sort of thing.
I’m pretty sure the WA Electoral Act is different to NSW.
I hope Mr Sutherland resigns from Council
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/candidate_information.php#Qualifications
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