NOTE: I’m reposting this in the hope the thread in the hope it might be used specifically for commenting on the results. More general discussion can be directed to the other threads.
EXPLANATORY NOTE: Assuming no late-count surprises (which do happen), Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams support them. Morley might be a wild card, as it is probable that absent, pre-poll and postal preferences are behaving differently to the booth votes.
|
PUBLISHED
|
LATEST
|
||||||
| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9247 | 9297 | 18544 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10044* | 10170* | 20214 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9169 | 9096 | 18265 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9307 | 9192 | 18499 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9499* | 9120* | 18619 | |
| * Projected vote used as two-party count progress is significantly behind primary count | |||||||
Tuesday 11pm. The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo. Liberals only 20 votes behind in Alfred Cove.
Tuesday 6.30pm. More count updates from Shtuwang included in the table above (the ones without asterisks). The Liberal lead in Morley has narrowed from 523 to 396 since the close of count on Saturday.
Tuesday 5pm. Shtuwang in comments says Labor leads by 151 (8673 to 8522) in Forrestfield, although this doesn’t account for the 18,444 primary votes in the count.
Tuesday 4pm. The trend seems to be running to Labor in Riverton and to Liberal elsewhere, although progress is painfully slow. Labor has had a very bad batch of 285 votes in Forrestfield go 134 Liberal and 77 Labor on the primary vote – I have their lead at 186, but apparently it’s narrower than that. The addition of 246 votes in Riverton gives McRae 116 primary votes against 90 for Nahan. My preference calculation gives Labor a slight lead, but my sources tell me they are in fact 50 votes behind. Only 156 votes added in Albany, producing essentially no change. 277 votes in Wanneroo include 134 Liberal and 99 Labor: Liberal candidate Paul Miles all but claimed victory today. Labor leads by 379 in Collie-Preston. For some reason a lot of seats have reset their absent counts to zero and started again: where applicable I am using the older figures. I am told rechecking of ballot booth votes will not be conducted until the weekend, whereas it is normally the first order of business.
Tuesday 2am. The West Australian reports a “notional two-party preferred count (which the WAEC apparently isn’t providing us with) shows Labor 57 votes behind in Wanneroo, 111 ahead in Albany, 165 ahead in Forrestfield and literally dead level in Riverton.
Monday 11pm. I’ve changed my way of doing this, so the results have been knocked about a little. To clarify: the columns on the left show the notional two-party counts from the close of election night, which disappointingly will not be further updated by the WAEC. The columns on the right convert the latest figures using the preference ratios from the notional count, notwithstanding that these might not be entirely accurate. Changes in Riverton since election night: Labor down 0.11 per cent to 40.18 per cent; Liberal down 0.19 per cent to 41.53 per cent; Greens up 0.21 per cent to 10.24 per cent.
Monday 4.30pm. 807 new votes in Wanneroo break almost exactly evenly; 619 votes in Collie-Preston narrow the margin by about 35 votes.
1.30pm Monday. New primary votes added (table above not updated). In Riverton, 603 votes likely to split 312-291 to Labor. In Wanneroo, 837 votes to split about 460-413 to Liberal; in Albany, 337 votes to split 177-160 to Liberal; in Forrestfield, 391 votes to split 208-183 to Liberal.
3pm Sunday. This post will be used to follow developments in the late count. Labor can still form a minority government if it wins four out of the above five seats, remembering that in 2005 they generally did about 2 per cent worse on absent and postal votes than on booth votes. Going on the 2005 result we could expect each to seat to have about 400 postal and 2000 absent votes outstanding, although I hear there was an unusually high number of absent votes due to confusion over the new boundaries.
602 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 13 » Show All
The West Australian provides “how the parties are tallying the votes” figures from both parties. Shtuwang’s figures are the Labor ones: the Liberals think themselves 99 rather than 73 behind in Albany, 112 rather than 115 behind in Forrestfield, 29 rather than 50 ahead in Riverton and 89 rather than 93 ahead in Wanneroo.
“Liberal Chris Back was closing in on Alfred Cove Independent Janet Woollard, with just 20 votes separating the pair”.
Yay! Maybe no more Janet? I wouldn’t bet on it though.
I know of at least 2 postal votes in Alfred Cove are for the ALP Candidate because of Ms Wollard’s comments regarding her support in a minority Barnett Government.
Excellent news Frank! I had a cunning plan myself to vote Labor and direct preferences to the Liberals guy, in the hope that Labor would get more votes than Woollard, thereby eliminating her. Alas, it was not to be.
They weren’t mine but a friend of mine and her First time voter daughter
The mother voted for Woolard in 2005 because of Graham Kierath hence Woolard’s increased vote then, but the libs wisesly avoided him this time 
I’m not being very impartial now am I? I must do better to hide by distaste for my local member.
Yes, Kierath was certainly poison. Had I been able to vote at that election I would certainly have put Labor first. I generally consider the candidate and their views more than the party when voting, which doesn’t seem to happen much nowadays. It should really though, because its quality members that make a good government, not party hacks or idiots.
I have just sent this missive off to The West online Blog in reply to a recent story questioning should any of the parties deal with John Bowler. Of course they won’t print it but I’ve had a guts-full of them (The West) as well! And to think I worked for them for 18 years of my life …..!
‘More to the point should either party have anything further to do with your newspaper?
You demand your rights under the journalistic code and constantly preach Free Speech yet you consistently veto individuals rights to be heard to suit your own agenda. You only print or publish what suits you, and let me ask “who are you?”
I exercise my right to respond to your blogs, “have your say” etc. etc. yet nothing I have to say ever gets printed or published. I run for parliament in the State Election as an Independent and send you my policy platform that entails, amongst other things, the banning of multa-novas in the metropolitan area (in the first week the election is called). Nothing is printed, published or even acknowledged. Yet in the last week of the election a newly formed party (www.WAFamilyFirst.com.au) comes out with my multa-nova platform and Paul Murray suddenly thinks this is a great idea and publishes a big expose on the party and the new policy!
You bag anything and anyone not to your ilk, yet you deny anyone who wants to stand up and change things for the better it would seem. John Bowler ran as an Independent – and I can tell you first hand that there is no lonelier place to be in an election. His electorate has elected him to represent them. You do not have the right to question should anyone deal with him – especially in light of the fact that his closet had long been exposed for all and sundry to see and hear everything possible about him. It is high time you stopped making the news and simply reported the news in a neutral manner as is the charter of a major daily newspaper. You yourself are guilty of gross hypocricy in that you are happy to take millions of dollars in polital advertising for the election and then have the gall to want to play sherrif and question the morality and ethics of all and sundry who choose to serve the electorate. Your ‘Whorehouse’ headline was your lowest point and it has now got to the point that your own shareholders are starting to shake with rage at your antics ………. not to mention your downward spiralling share price. Of course, you won’t print it but let it be known that the writing is proverbially on the wall. When one continues to push the boundaries to the enth degree, the day will come when the boundaries bounce back, but you will have lost a lot more than just my respect by that time!
Wayne Thompson’
Go on Wayne, don’t hold back, tell ‘em how you really feel…
401 William
So the Liberal is counting a higher ALP vote, while the ALP are counting a higher Lib vote
Next thing you know. Liberal will be trying to disallow their votes (northwest)
or the National will get into bed with Labor
This is very reminiscent of waiting for the 1974 Federal election count and Victoria 1999. If the ALP loses the postal votes race, it will have wasted the clear advantage in this area that comes with incumbency. A snap election can catch your own people napping as well. I was appalled at the lack of a coordinated postal vote strategy in the 2007 election in WA.
dovif, it is possible to get all sort of weird scenerios from this election as Anna Winter on LP says.
“Whichever party the Nats decide to deal with, they likely won’t enter into coalition. They’d guarantee supply, but otherwise keep their options open. And given the Nats’ likely control of both houses, it would possible for one of those options to be to get legislation passed without the help of the government. Meaning ministers forced to implement legislation they voted against.
Unlikely, sure. But wouldn’t it be fun while it lasted? And what other wacky scenarios can people think up before boring reality kicks in again?”
.
Here’s a couple of outside seats to watch…
Pilbara
If the Nats get a decent share of the Greens vote – but not likely
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Pilbara/District_results.php
Note: ALP are scruitineering this count
Kimberley
I don’t think the Libs can win it, but if the Nats can overtake the Libs on the back of the greens there may be a chance
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Kimberley/District_results.php
There was some oddness in some of the booths in Pilbara, according to scuinteers, so that could be one to watch.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24317337-2761,00.html
Labor party insider most likely result will be 31 – 29 or 32 – 28, Libs:Nats:Conservative Ind versus Labor:Labor Ind.
Big call given there are only 59 seats in the L.A. and they’ve got 60 listed.
The comment (in Pseph’s article) about the Nats waiting until the Upper House count is concluded before deciding who to support in the lower house is perhaps more interesting.
Rates Analyst
I agree, I wonder if they wants to overturn 1v1v and get 3 to 4 more Nat into parliament
the rumor earlier was they wanted 2 extra seats in the lower house as part of “the deal”
What’s the latest from Alfred Cove? Has Chris Back closed that 20-vote gap yet?
Overturning 1v1v would be ultra-regressive. Introducing 1v1v was one of Labor’s big achievements, going backwards on this would not be very good at all.
I don’t think there would be any reason for the Nationals to overturn 1v1v. They won 4 seats, and at a future election could quite possibly pick up Eyre, Pilbara, North-West and possibly even Kimberley. And then in the upper house they’re guaranteed about 3 seats and could quite possibly win 6 at the next election – 3 in agricultural, 2 in mining and pastoral and 1 in south-west. Assuming Grylls doesn’t lose the plot, surely they’re vote will only improve?
Duke @422: It depends. If the outcome of the current parliamentary situation is an unstable government, or a series of unstable governments, lurching from crisis to crisis and constantly having to bargain for Nat support, voters may think twice about supporting minor parties, and the Nats could suffer next time round. If the Nats want the role of kingmaker, then they have to be ready to make a king; they have to enter into a stable pact for government under which the terms on which they will guarantee supply are clear, well-understood and well-accepted, and they have to stick to it for the lifetime of the Parliament.
In Vic after the 99 election, 3 Inds supported Labor and Labor + Inds had a very thin 45-43 lower house majority over the Libs/Nats. This arrangement was stable for the 3 yrs that Parliament lasted, though Labor did improve its situation with surprise victories at the Burwood and Benalla by-elections. They still hold Burwood, though Benalla returned to the Nats at the 2002 election – Labor’s only loss in what was otherwise a crushing landslide.
Carpenter is going to get rolled soon by the right wing faction, so perhaps it’s a moot point whether or not he can negotiate an agreement with the Nats/independents.
The question is more whether Labor can negotiate an agreement with the Nats and/or independents. Carpenter is highly unlikely to remain as premier after this debacle, the issue is whether his party will remain in power.
Any updates this morning? I see Antony has given Kwinana back to Adams.
Carpenter has the numbers to survive. The question is will he want to if he cant bring the nats on board to form a government. There arent many options for leadership in the ALP ranks, Wyatt is too young and inexperienced, Mcgowan is too lightweight, McGinty is too hated by all bar the miscelaneous workers faction, Kobelke is a non starter. Really leaves michelle roberts who is probably too damaged or Allanah. Allanah by far and away is the most intellegent and hard working minister in the government, the question is of course is she electable and will she want to sit in opposition.
The whole issue of the negotiations is really alot more clear than it looks. Grylls is waiting to see if Riverton or less likely Wanneroo go Labor. If they do then the numbers for a stable Government with the Libs aren’t there and he will go with Labor. There is no way earth the Nats will favour ALP over Libs otherwise. So in reality it all depends on whether Labor get to 28 seats. That will entail a Lab/Nat/Ind Govt.
As for rolling Carpenter that will not be considered until after the settlement of whether there is a Lab Govt. He will have to stand aside if they lose Govt. Allannah is the only credible though difficult choice
Carpenter has to stay Labor leader whether in Government or not. He’s the only true leader they have.
My midday mail from the West:
Albany: Labor by 73
Collie-Preston: Labor by 335
Forrestfield: Labor by 115
Kwinana: Labor by 426
Morley: Lib by 396
Riverton: Lib by 50
Wanneroo: Lib by 93
Pilbara and North-West: safe for Labor
I think that means Labor cannot form a government except via a deal with the Nats.
You’re prepared to call Riverton then, Adam?
Those figures look awfully like the Labor figures from close of play yesterday. Is Kwinana really a possibility for Labor ?
Adam, I think those were the figures as at last night.
Peter Watson certainly can’t afford another bad batch of postals from the old Stirling part of the new Albany electorate.
Riverton may well go right down to the wire, and I concur with bogart that if Tony McRae gets up, Grylls will almost have to ally with Labor (at least in the short term).
I’m not calling anything, just reporting what I am told. They may be last night’s figures, I haven’t checked.
It will indeed be a sad irony if Carpenter loses because D’Orasio who acted so disreputably and had to be gotten rid of after the speeding fines fiasco and the superannuation issue and then finally the phoning corrupt policemen stuff is the one to give the Libs power by preferencing them in Morley
D’Orasio is no man of principle and has been shown to be only interested in himself. If he believed the issue was Carpenter why pref the Libs. It is a sad thing indeed to see a person so lacking in principle and it was clearly a mistake to ever have him parliament for Labor.
Does anyone know what the justification for the seats of Pilbara and Kimberley not being merged? They are both extremely small seats. I thought 1 vote 1 value meant this wouldn’t be the case or did it only apply to non labor seats.
436 Chris: they didn’t quite get rid of the gerrymander. There’s a ‘large district allowance’, which means Kalgoorlie, Eyre, Pilbara, North West and Kimberley can have less voters. They have to come up to a certain area for that to kick in, which I think is why Pilbara includes a weird shoe-shaped chunk of the Gibson Desert cut out of Kalgoorlie.
Looking at the upper house count, unless Labor can get to 38 seats in the lower house, it is unlikely the National will support them (then Labor can government with the Ind anyway)
If the Nat joins with Labor, they will only have 15 of the 36 upper house seat, meaning they will need the Liberals or the Green to support them to pass any legislation.
I will be surprise if National’s $750million scheme get pass the Greens or the Liberals in opposition
There really is no chance of a Labor – National partnership
No 409
Wayne Thompson, it may be helpful to launch a spell check before embarking on a rant that you want published.
Can anyone comment on Kwinana and the state of play there ?
Anthony Green’s ABC website is suggesting the Nats will get 3 seats in the agricultural region and Labor will be down to 1. So much for 1 vote, 1 value!
440 – the WAEC have only distributed preferences to Labor and Lib, not the Indep (why?). So still no rael picture is forming
Tony R… one vote, one value was never meant to apply to the Legislative Council.
It’s about time true democracy, or as close to it as possible was introduced in WA. So good on carps for at least seeing to that with 1 vot one value.
Thanks Otis but Adam at 430 previously was suggesting the numbers had it Labor up over 400 – I assume as the other numbers came from an insider that it has some validity but can anyone confirm this ?
The counting is outrageously slow. For goodness sake, we are now more than three days out from the election and they’ve only counted ~80-85%.
Hopefully the head (or heads) of someone at the WAEC head will roll after the complete dod’s breakfast they have made of this!! And to all you Tory apologists out there…dont try and blame Carp’s for this one. They should have been ready. No excuses!!
I’ve heard of some polling booths being told by the WAEC official in charge that we have an optional preferential system here and that just putting the no.1 in a single box was enough to make it formal (even when there were 6 candidates). Give me a break, thats just not good enuff!!
Bogart, last night a Labor scrutineer/insider called Shtuwang gave details for all close seats. On Kwinana, he said Labor was in front by 436, but based ONLY on votes counted after election day, no prefs for election night votes.
Bogart 445 – That is right on the primaries, but I have been scrutineering at the terminal and they didnt count any Kwinana primaries or preferences this morning. So Labor is ahead on primaries, but we have no idea what the TTP is.
p.s…..apols for the spelling and grammar errors in previous post. I got a tad worked up about it
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 13 » Show All