• The image below indicates the notional margins in metropolitan seats going into the election, and the results as of the close of count on election night. Click on the image to toggle between the two. Colour coding runs from very light for below 2 per cent to very heavy for above 15 per cent.
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• Exchange from 6PR election night broadcast between former Liberal leader Matt Birney, broadcaster Howard Sattler and former Labor MP Graham Edwards. Much more remains to be said on The West Australian’s extraordinary coverage of this campaign, but Birney hits on the main themes.
MB: The West Australian newspaper, the journalists down there have been having running fights and personality clashes with Alan Carpenter and his senior ministers including Jim McGinty who once banned them. And I’ll tell you what, they have taken it upon themselves to punish those ministers for those personality clashes, and some of the articles have appeared day after day after day on The West Australian newspaper I think have just damaged the hell out of the Labor Party, and I might say as a Liberal, I’m prepared to say, some of them very unfairly.
HS: And yet today the paper said … today editorial in the paper said vote Labor!
MB: No it didn’t at all, that was Paul Armstrong trying to cover his backside in case the board tapped him on the shoulder and say, what do you think you’re doing.
HS: I know what you mean, but 95 per cent of the editorial bagged the Carpenter government and the last 5 per cent said vote for him (laughs) …
MB: Can I just respond to that? For those people who read the editorial, they’d realise that the editorial was absolutely scathing of the Labor Party …
HS: It was.
MB: … and then in the very last line said, but it’s probably a safe vote to vote Labor. Do you know what that was? That was Paul Armstrong, the editor of The West Australian, covering his backside in case he got a phone call from Peter Mansell, the chairman of the board, saying “I think you guys have allowed your personality clashes with these ministers to play out in the pages of our newspaper” …
During the campaign in particular there were a number of articles that were completely beaten up. For instance, the headline saying Michelle Roberts has dared the Premier to sack her. Well, she never did any such thing. The Premier flies to Albany, as you do when you’re a leader, to announce a renewble energy policy, and The West focus in on how much fuel he used in the aeroplane. You know, The West said “oh, the Labor Party aren’t in fact the green party because they’re bringing on 1100MW of coal and gas-fired power”. Well, if they didn’t do that the state would be on its knees. I could go on and on …
GE: Certainly the campaign between The West and the Carpenter government was a very intriguing one. It was there and it was real and I think Matt’s hit the nail on the head.
MB: It was juvenile, wasn’t it? … I don’t think that The West have a left-wing bias, I think that their journalists get into a fight with a politician, they then go back to their office and they say, “right, I’ll stitch that bloke up”, and then they find the worst headline and the worst story they can and they beat the hell out of it, and they then stick it into the paper for the next day and they say “there you go, cop that one, you want to be …”.
HS: So it’s all about megalomania.
MB: Oh, it’s out of control, it’s a teenage rampage down there at The West Australian at the moment.
• Another highlight of the 6PR coverage, from Gary Gray:
Whoever was running that campaign panicked about the middle of last week, and they got away from the solid Vision, Stability, Leadership campaign they’d been running before in a fairly focused way and started pulling out scare ads of the uranium kinds and other things, and I think it was a huge error to do that.
261 Comments
My take as an outsider now is at How the West was lost
For all those who are convinced the Nats will save the WA Labor party the following post from our own inimitable Frank Calabrese sums up the reality very well:
222
Frank Calabrese Says:
August 18th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
And I’ve noticed they’ve updated the original story.
The WA Nationals have backed away from their earlier threat to preference Labor and the Greens ahead of the Liberal Party in some seats.
Nationals Leader Brendan Grylls says the decision to put the Liberals ahead of Labor and the Greens in every Upper and Lower House seat, recognises there is a mood for change in regional WA.
Some Liberals claimed the Nationals would suffer a backlash from their traditional supporters if they put Labor first.
And this is interesting from Grylls.
Mr Grylls is still adamant there will not be a coalition, even though the Nationals are giving the Liberals favourable treatment on preferences.
“We do have to put one before the other and like I said the mood I have felt is a mood for change and a mood for the Labor Party to be removed from Government,” he said.
Talk about being “Independent”, when push comes to shove, it’s all about their survival as a party.
Here’s Maywald’s advice.
William’s hat must be getting nervous.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/08/2357886.htm
Hm. Barnett seems to be falling into line:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24309845-5013404,00.html
Mr Barnett also spoke to Mr Grylls yesterday morning and booked a meeting with the kingmaker early today.
He seemed keen to play up the traditional Liberal-Nationals alliance and declared the two parties were “on the same page” on the issue of more funding for the regions.
“As I have said before, the door is always open. We have always governed together as a coalition; whether it is a coalition or some sort of alliance (this time) I don’t know,” he said.
“We recognise that there is a strong call from regional areas for more to be spent in those areas. I said during the campaign that the Liberal Party would commit $50million to a northern towns program, so we’re on the same page as far as that is concerned. I am very comfortable with doing more in the regional areas and I hope that Brendon and I can discuss that.”
“Oh, it’s out of control, it’s a teenage rampage down there at The West Australian at the moment.”
And geriatric rampage at the OO for a long while.
…………………………………………………………
I dare say the game has changed. None expected that Labor would lose or get to this stage. Grylls is faced with a new reality. He will come under enormous pressure to comply from the Liberal party – though I don’t know what they could threaten the NATS with.
Now if the NATS feel they are likely to be humoured or be ignored by the Libs as usual then the prospect of have some real relevance and importance with Labor might be enticing.
I believe this is also a rare opportunity for federal Labor to put a few chinks in the federal relationship between Nats and Libs. If the can prise the Nats away from the Libs here then that makes the federal world look a whole lot different.
It will take a fair bit of courage for Grylls to follow through, does he have the guts?
Peter Kennedy says Labor “optimists” not writing off Morley.
Carpenter is certainly different. His comment that working with the National Party would be exciting sounded genuine. He didn’t seem to be forcing the smile. For those of us with long memories scary would be a better word. Anyway I think the Nats will support Barnett after getting the most blood out of the situation. They’re just playing the political game very cleverly.
TP @ 5: I don’t know enough about Grylls, but he seems the real deal – I just read a backgrounder in the OO on him, and the Nats have been running ads on their Royalties for Regions since January.
They seem to have positioned themselves well to do a deal with either side, without alienating their (newish?) base.
If Grylls can bring home the bacon, then he appears to have enough cover to survive a deal with the ALP.
Okay to all the Lib Losers here I want to point out one thing for you:
The LIBS CAN *NOT* win in WA.
It’s not the Nats fault. It’s not the “political systems” fault. It’s the fact you do NOT have enough seats.
You need 30 seats to form government. It looks like Labor has won 29. Your mob has won 22. The Nats have won 4. Independents 4.
So Labor needs just 1 single Nationals vote, 1 single Independents vote to form a government.
Now if it was just a matter of forming a coalition with the Nats, the Libs in my mind WOULD have won this election! But you CAN’T. You need the 22 Libs, 4 Nats and ALL 4 Independents(good luck getting all 4 to vote the way you want). It’s completely unfeasible.
Why do you think that the Nats are so keen to team up with Labor? They know that if they don’t, they will be out on their arses for another 4 years. Labor doesn’t need the Nats to form government, they can simply try and bring a Independent into the fold.
You guys better break out the kleenex, because you have no chance.
If only you could say Labor has won 29. They haven’t.
As a South Australian here’s some well publicised information about Karlene Maywald, the National MP who sits in the Labor ministry. A recent poll taken by The Adelaide Advertiser has put Maywald on only 10% of the vote in her regional electorate where they think she has become a completely ineffective member due to her getting in bed with Labor and not being able to deliver a better River Murray (which falls inside her ministry). There are other factors at play, but the electorate largely feel betrayed by Maywald and her chances of reelection appear (at this stage) near nil.
I think Brendon Grylls ought to bear this in mind.
Okay what’s the likely finish everyone. And what’s a feesible probability percentage that the national’s team up with ALP?
Centaur @ 11: I’ll get back to you in a coupla days…
predictions peter not actuals
I saw Brendan Grylls being interviewed by Peter Kennedy on the ABC on election night, and when asked about Karlene Maywald, who is a National sitting in the ALP cabinet in South Australia, he said: “she is my role model and I will be phoning her shortly to discuss my options”
Birney was also interviewed and reiterated what he said about the West.
good on him.
Why does everyone think the Nats are getting cosy with the Labor Party if they didn’t need to?
Labor is the only party with any chance of forming a stable government, and will most likely form a coalition with 2 of the independents.
The Nats are desperate to form a coalition with the Labor Party now because the writing is on the wall and they don’t want to be out on their arses for another 4 Years.
Nothing like a close race to make it interesting. Will teach the Libs to take better care of their spouse.
I agree, with all on the ALP/NATS coalition as the unionist(notionally ALP people), and the national party person are much closer ideologically than many other parties. The political spectrum resembles a circle more than a linear line. The further you get ot to the ends the closer the ends come together.
Centaur: I would have to say “odds on”.
The more I think about it, the more the Nats have to gain from an alliance with Labor.
They were dying a slow death in coalition, and being ‘independant’ has done well for them.
I like the Piping Shrike’s http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/ parting comments that the Nats should “(become) an independent party before they become a party of Independants”
Just to make it all more interesting.
The Nationals are considering abandoning their federal coalition with the Liberal Party, with Senator Barnaby Joyce signalling he would support the power shift.
Nationals Leader Warren Truss says the party’s strong polling in the West Australian election has prompted him to contemplate splitting from the Liberals at a national level.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/08/2357831.htm
there is no reason why both the ALP and the Libs cannot meet the Nats regional investment requirements without looking as if they are being help to ransom.
I am a Perth resident but concede that there is major infrastructure investment required throughout the state to assist the mining and agricultural industries. The new Okajee port; improvements to all the iron ore ports across the Pilbara; re-nationlisation of the rural rail freight network; road improvement schemes; a new gas pipeline; assistance with the iron ore rail network; renewable energy schemes (wind on the coast, solar in the interior, tidal up north); water investment.
all these can be argued to benefit people in Perth as much as the regions if they stimulate development.
Why is everyone talking ‘coalition’?
I presume it’ll be support on supply and confidence (contingent on the govt fulfilling a one-way deal/filling the pork barrel). Plus one or two ministers, juggling an obligation of cabinet confidentiality with a tepid expectation of cabinet solidarity, except on whichever rural or social issues the Nats wish to sound off on.
And I assume Grylls will contemplate nothing more formal with the Libs, although there is less room on some if not all issues for there to be a big falling out.
And when they fall out – the Nats can just cut another deal with the Opposition, whoever that is. The prospect of this takes us back to politics a la 1900s-1910s, between protectionist, free traders, liberals, tories, labor, country parties.
Maybe they should fly Winston Peters in as a consultant?
I am, however, pontificating from the other side of the continent – what do others see as the format of any deal?
It is all about bush issues not conservative politics
Labor and the Nats both represent a significant number of rural and regional seats in the lower house.
ALP- Collie, Albany, Pilbara, Kimberly and if you dare consider Bowler a “Labor Independant”, Kalgorlie too. (are there any others?)
Nats have four seats
I don’t see why the Libs should be front runners on a deal aimed at better funding for regional WA. They would only be the logical choice if the consideration is about conservative politics.
What angle to you think Grille is taking?
Highest bidder wins.
I forgot to mention North West
No 18
Barnaby Joyce is an idiot.
No 23
Yep. Barnett should and must capitulate to the Nats demands.
That would be Grylls, Dave. Brendan Grylls.
Not to be confused with Julian Grill.
centaur # 17
“The further you get ot to the ends the closer the ends come together.”
The National-Socialists!?
LOL, The National Socialist Party of Western Australia, ie NSPWA
Which ever way it goes we know who will control the government. We are going to be essentially looking at a National Party goverment. “Do as we want or the otherside joins us in power.” Both major parties will get absolutuely jack of that and seek another election pretty quickly IMHO. Stable government is a thing of the past for WA I’m afraid.
“Which ever way it goes we know who will control the government. We are going to be essentially looking at a National Party goverment.”
Gary, that’s not true. While the Liberal Party cannot form government without the support of the Nationals, it’s still possible for Labor to form a minority government without the support of the Nationals.
Has up to date counting suggested that Matt C? I must admit I’m not up with the latest.
Any news on the count today? I expect they have been counting for 1.5 hours already?
It doesn’t suggest that it’s likely, but that it’s possible.
My comment was on what is likely, not what is possible.
You said “Which ever way it goes we know who will control the government”, which implies that National control is a foregone conclusion. It is not.
Laugh ye all, but protectionist policies, job protection, subsidised industry, import tarrifs are leaves taken from both books. A free market threatens both.
The National Party is way to left wing for the ALP.
Is that the ghost of bob santamaria? how is the after life? Did you find out what happened with Harold holt? Was he taken by a soviet submarine, or is he with you?
Labor winning 29 seats is fanciful, Alfred Cove looks like being a Liberal gain and with postals and prepolls, the Libs should take Riverton and Wanneroo and in the seat of North West when preferences are counted Sweetman could well fall over the line. Morely also could end up being a Liberal gain.
It takes just one slip and Labor are done, the postals and prepolls will help the Libs not the ALP and therefore the Libs have a far greater chance of ending up with 25-6 MPs than Labor has at having 29.
Centaur_007 @ 37
Agree. The nat/lab brand separation isn’t in the economics. It is in socially progressive v socially conservative elements of the brands.
If it wasn’t for the nats you would have some sort of flat-earth, League of Rights type of splinter party. They would never hold many seats, but from time to time they would hold the balance of power. Long term, the demographics are going to beat this particular political niche into oblivion.
Federally, the immediate problem for both libs and nats is that the libs went economically dry and socially conservative, got rid of their wets, and strayed into nat brand territory.
The best hope for the nats is a separate rural social, social conservative brand from the libs. They could let the libs aim for the centre and the nats could pick up the righteous rest.
Matt, my comment was on what is likely to happen, not what is possible.
You said it yourself it is likely to include the Natioals in a coalition. I don’t think I can make that any clearer. However for you I will add an “if it comes about that”. How’s that?
Glen
You’re sounding a bit worried.
43 Diogenes – I was thinking that, although Glen may have more information than we do? Do you Glen?
I wonder if Ian Taylor is now still going to get expelled from the ALP for endorsing John Bowler?
Hasn’t Antony already said that some seats given on the night were given prematurely???
I am thinking it has to do with preferences, hence North West and Morely spring to mind.
And yet van Onselen gives Morley to Labor. By the way, that doesn’t mean Antony believe Labor won’t win those seats, he just believes its too early to call them.
“Hasn’t Antony already said that some seats given on the night were given prematurely???
I am thinking it has to do with preferences, hence North West and Morely spring to mind.”
And this is relevant to Labor winning 29 seats how?
The Liberal dream of winning the WA State election is over, you can’t do it without the support of all the independents in other words… Buckleys.
Have another go in 2012
Steven Smith has changed his tune.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/alp-may-be-able-to-lead-minority-wa-govt-20080908-4bl3.html
Where are all the conservative gloaters?
This is hardly a great result for either of the major parties. The Liberals should have done a lot better.
Those people who think the outcome is clear one way or the other are smoking dope…. there are about half a dozen seats where the outcome is simply too close to call.
In all of these seats there is a large number of primary votes still to be counted. Moreover, the 2pp results shown so far generally are based on a smaller number of votes than the current primary count.
In other words, the preferences for a huge number of primaries still need to be distributed, plus a whole raft of primaries still need to be counted….
In this context any seat that is fairly close is still up in the air
What seat is Smith talking about in that article?
52 10pse – absolutley true.
Anyone know what the Nats’ attitude is to uranium mining and GM crops? Carpenter nailed his colours to the mast on those issues, and would look pretty shonky if he had to cave in to Grylls and allow them to go ahead, just to cling to a much-diminished share of power. And we can probably say goodbye to any same-sex union recognition.
BrissyRod – There is no such thing as a conservative gloater. We leave such immature antics to the Leftoids.
Does anyone know when the counts will start being updated on the WAEC/ABC (assuming they’ve started counting again by now)?
The reality is that Labor could still win enough seats to form a minority government with Labor leaning independents, without the Nationals… similarly the Liberals could still get enough seats to form a minority government either with the Nationals, or with the Nationals and Liberal leaning independents.
Either outcome is entirely possible
56 – you are obviously new to this blog
If Uranium mining is a 40b dollar industry, Cautious and Sniff can give Grylls a big piece of that pie?
yes 1-pse, if the ALP win 3 out ofthe 5 in doubt seats they could govern with the 2 labor-leaning independants. Heard Antony Green on ABC saying that Libs may not get enough even with Nats so will require independants too
56 Steve Annabelle – I’m not sure if that comment of yours is tongue in cheek or not but if it isn’t just read all of the people on these WA blogs? I won’t mention any names but you’ll get the drift.
this might put a slightly different aspect on things.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24311172-5005962,00.html
61 – who are the 2 labor leaning independents? I thought there was only 1.
Very hard to be a conservative gloater when you haven’t won an election in the country in over 10 years (and possibly still haven’t)
65 – um, are you forgetting 1998, 2001, 2004 federally??
1 labor independent said she wont support Carps, the MP for Kwinana and she’s got not intention of backing the ALP.
67 – yes Glen, thats the one I was thinking of. Over to you Nationals.
clip from article at 63
LABOR says it has picked up a data entry error in a crucial seat in the West Australia election which now means the party can form a minority government in its own right.
Foreign Minister and senior Labor Party strategist Stephen Smith said a a re-examination of the count in one of the state’s northwest seats showed it would fall to Labor.
“A close look at the figures over the weekend and people’s attention being drawn to the data entry error in the northwest Cape (coast) seat, that seat in my view has clearly been won by Labor,” Mr Smith said in Perth today.
“So it now opens up the technical possibility that Labor could govern in its own right with the support of two independents.”
We’ve known about Labor winning North West since late Saturday night, but this is the first I’ve heard of a “data entry error”. I assumed it was because Labor received higher than expected Nationals preferences.
Was referring to winning an election from opposition
Also, can anyone suggest what (say) Peter van Onselen knows about Morley that I don’t? The notional count gave the Liberals 8327 and Labor 7804, which would be very hard to come back from. But the WAEC have strangely decided to remove this from their site.
I must say as a small c Conservative I find any gloating quite puerile. I assume most of us left High School many years ago.
It is obvious that the end result is not going to be known for a few days and neither side has any right to gloat.
If Labor wins it will be by the smallest margin and by relying on people they should not rely on.
If the Libs win it will be by selling the farm to the Nats (pun intended).
WA has 4 years of unstable government ahead of it.
This swing is a disaster for ALP, but the result is hardly satisfactory for the Libs.
“technical possibility” are two important words here and I’m sure he is not suggesting there ARE two independents who will support Labor. However in other states conservative leaning independents have backed Labor before.
67 Glen: Is there a link to a story about Carol Adams, or did you just think that up yourself?
William,
The notional count for Morley is here: http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Morley/notional_distribution_of_preferences.php
73 Steve Annabelle – I agree 100%
Agreed – this result is bad for both major parties. It will make the next 4 years very interesting. However, I suspect it will be harder for Labor to govern and would be better for them to go into Opposition.
The ABC page for Morley (http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/morl.htm) shows that none of the booths 2CP vote has been counted. Does this mean that assumptions about a 2CP result are based on guesses about preference flows? I would be loathe to make any assumptions about how D’Orazio’s preferences will flow.
Carol Adams hates Carps as much as Cautious does, and if Labor want to form Government with someone under investigation for corruption with Brian Burke (Bowler) then fine but it will be more of the same.
The Libs still are in a strong chance to form a government.
Amazing news here. Data entry problems.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24311172-29277,00.html
BrissyRod # 78 And even harder if Carpenter wants to stay on as leader!
82 – yes, agree.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/wa-election-shows-case-for-mergers-20080908-4bl2.html
So true, if there was an LNP in WA like in QLD the ALP would be done.
We all know the initial preference count in Morley was screwed up, due to the WAEC dictating that the liberal preferences be distributed between Whitby and D’Orazio. My thoughts are that the absentee and postal votes are going to flow very heavily to Whitby, and these votes will be untainted by D’Orazio HTV that directed preferences away from Whitby to Britza. I think there is sill life in Morley.
If there was an LNP in WA there may have been some leakage of the Nationals’ vote to the ALP. You can’t assume that all those who voted National on Saturday would’ve voted LNP.
Glen (80), I’m going to take that as a ‘no’.
Out of the 4 independents, Adams is far and away most likely to plump for Labor. Bowler’s on the fence and Carpenter probably doesn’t want him anyway (he fired him not too long ago!), and Woollard and Constable will go for Barnett. Adams most likely just wanted to see Carpenter’s nose bloodied for his stupid preselection process, and she’s certainly got that.
The more I think about it, the stupider Springborg’s comments seem to me…
Surely one conclusion we can draw from Saturday’s results is the strong endorsement of an independent National Party that is seen to be standing up for the regions. A merged LNP would represent the opposite of this. WA is not QLD.
ALP may be able to lead minority WA govt.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/alp-may-be-able-to-lead-minority-wa-govt-20080908-4bl3.html
Very ODD, indeed, Ms.Bishop is absolutely right, the Nats is a very odd creature at the moment. As far as I can tell there are 5 incarnations of the Nats:
1. The Bananaland version where it is in meshed and tangled up together with the Libs.
2. WA version where it is supposed to be “independent”
3. SA version where it is in “coalition” with Labor.
4. NSW version where it is in “coalition” with the Libs
5. Fed Version where it is simply the country branch of the Libs.
I think the Nats are actually the one in trouble because they dont know who they are and what they are.
I hardly think the ALP would win seats like Moore, Central Wheat Belt ect the Nats simply held what they already had and a merged Party would have been able to achieve the same result.
89 – The Finnigans
It may well be that the current situation is good the Nationals… Consider each separate jurisdiction as a sort of experiment of different approaches to government. Each jurisdiction can learn lessons from the other. Grylls has indicated that the SA precedent is informing his thinking, and Truss has indicated that Grylls’ position is guiding the federal party’s potential move towards a more independent position.
Lots of wishful speculation there Glen… not for the first time
#91, It might be good for the Nats to “experiment” but the punters will only get confuse. as someone mentioned earlier, it will end up as a party of independents.
Rediculous statement, Glen at 84.
If there was an LNP in WA, then it would be a completely different landscape and there are absolutely no analogies that can be drawn from this real-life election result.
Neither the ALP nor Lib primary vote was flash.
But in the rush to horsetrade, what’s become of the good ol’ 1v-1v argument that the major party with over 50% of the TPP deserves minority government??
And what kind of electoral reform might we expected if the Nationals hold the balance of power in both houses?
89 – I think you will find this is due the historically state based structure of the Nationals. Unlike the Liberals federated model, they could be better described as a group of otherwise independant state branches.
With that in mind, how successful was the “One Vote, One Value” reform?
It now seems that the governance of WA may be held hostage by some 80 thousand voters that elected 4 Nationals MPs.
GB, Bracks ruled in Vic for one term with the support of 3 independants, 2 of whom where thought to be conservative leaning. It is possible. BTW he won reelection in a landslide after that
Something about that story about the data entry error strikes me.
It says that this will anble Labor to form a “minority government in its own right”. Is it just me or is this a contradiction in terms??
Why no updates on WA Electoral Commission site?
Andos: Grylls just got very, very lucky. Two seats either way, and there’d be a majority government and his party would have continued on the way to nowhere… it’s fallen in pretty much an ideal point for the Nats. Imagine playing poker and getting dealt the ace and king of spades.
MGM: I’m guessing they mean ALP + Adams + Bowler, and not the Nationals. That’d mean 28 ALP seats.
Andrew @ 99
Although that was at the beginning of the cycle with Bracks in Vic 1999.
But Labor might be lucky in this occasion – just wish the counting would hurry up – pity melbcity isn’t here degrading their commission for the woeful counting process- like he did with Vic re:2006
You’re not wrong there, Bird of Paradox.
Grylls bet everything on a bluff. And won.
Any updated figures for the 50-50 seats???
If Adams has won Kwinana it is as a result of being a ’safe” depository of dissaffected Labor votes. Those who voted for her did so in the expectation that one way or the other they would end up with a Labor member or a Labor independent. I know the electorate and the people in it.
Adams is an intelligent woman and will know that she has a long term future as an independent in that seat only if she backs Labor. Otherwise she will be a one (short) term wonder.
100 MGM – I think it was saying Labor would be the only party in the minority government, the others would be independents. It was badly worded though.
103:
Whipping the WAEC would be quite unfair.
Carps called an early election when the WAEC were in the middle of training returning Officers , negotiating booth locations and finalising the roll. Furthermore the Commisoner was attending a conference in QLD at the time Carps called it.
they then had basically 2 weeks to have everything ready.
It was chaos.
Andos @ # 104
Is he using the same strategy now? In his negotiations….
So with ACT Election just around the corner – it could be another close contest with say – the Greens holding BOP or sharing it with one or two independents [the ex-lib and the mayor]. So it could be interesting how WA ends up – it’s still anyones game atm.
Zombie @ 108
That’s true though. Although there had been speculation about the election for a little while. I guess I’m just an impatient political junkie.
needing my dose lol
The ABC is not updating at all, except for Upper House..
Wow, so the Libs lost ground in the Legislative Council.
Greetings bludgers, back from a newspaper and internet-free weekend in the country. See what happens when I go away?
Finnegans you forgot the Vic Nats who are not in Coalition.
Hence my comments about her boss Mike Dean having a meeting with Michelle Roberts on Saturday Night (I was there when the phone call was made).
So as I said – watch this space – Mike Dean is VERY friendly with Michelle Roberts, and despite Mike dipping his toes on Liberal policy, is mainly a supporter of the ALP.
Adam, the Vics got their coalition going again recently.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/libs-nats-revive-coalition/2008/02/11/1202578650786.html
#115 Actually, the Vic Nats ARE in Coalition with the Libs. They recently came back to the fold.
However, the Nats did pretty well last Vic election when they were not in Coalition with the Libs. The Vic Nats Leader, Peter Ryan, is a better politician than anything the Vic Libs have been able to offer recently.
#107
Not sure about that. We saw in Victoria in 1999 that independents in very conservative rural electorates installed Labor minority government. Two of the three survived the next election, the only one who didn’t was Susan Davies whose seat was abolished.
Peter Wellington in Qld is another example. Didn’t do him any harm.
Bird, thanks, I must have missed that earth-shaking news.
No. 26 I agree.
MDM: Kwinana is hardly a conservative rural electorate. It’s in the shadow of an oil refinery, and was Labor’s second safest seat until a couple of days ago. A MASSIVE thumb in the eye for Carpenter’s preselection process…
William@96
I would expect the Nationals to insist on a return to rural vote-weighting, especailly as it looks like they will have a Constitutional majority in the Council. The way they do it will be whats interesting – would it be a reversion to the old distribution (and a loss of seats in the city) or by additional seats in the country (keeping seats in the city but expanding parliament).
Information i am getting is that the Nats are pushing for 2 more bush seats.
I don’t profess knowlege of successful independents in other electorates, but I do know Kwinana.
Proudly working class, mostly surrounding industrial, cheap housing, usually high unemployment (though, temporarily, not now) young, struggling families, high crime and drug rates, high tenancy turnover, high truancy rates, long term Labor heartland. Things change, but not this fast.
Adams got lucky, right time, right place, right circumstances. It won’t happen again, no matter how good she turns out to be, unless she shows she is still mainstream Labor.
#115, OK Adam;
1. The Bananaland version where it is in meshed and tangled up together with the Libs.
2. WA version where it is supposed to be “independent”
3. SA version where it is in “coalition” with Labor.
4. NSW version where it is in “coalition” with the Libs
5. Fed Version where it is simply the country branch of the Libs.
6. Vic version where the Nats and Libs cannot stand each other.
btw Adam, the One is in trouble, big trouble, we told them, we told them: RCP National Average 45.7 46.7 McCain +1.0
We finally have an updated vote count on WAEC.
1514 primary votes added in Wanneroo, putting the Liberals in front. Below lists raw figures with percentage in brackets, following by the percentage of previously counted votes.
Lib 405 (46.4%) 45.9
ALP 312 (35.7%) 42.3
Grn 75 (8.6%) 9.0
FFP 36 (4.1%) 2.8
CDP 24 (2.7%) 2.8
IND 21 (2.4%) 2.2
And the same with Midland – Michelle only suffered a 1.5% swing against her. And they don’t forget about Richard Court closing the Workshops either, despite the Liberal Candidate crying crocodile tears about it and kicking an own goal.
That does it.
If Palin manages to win the election for the Republicans I’m moving to Mars.
Earth’s just not going to be safe anymore.
#122
I meant Inds from conservative electorates backed Labor, and prospered, so it doesn’t automatically follow that an Ind from working-class Kwinana would be punished for supporting the conservatives.
Bird you are wrong about Kwinana and the preselection process.
1. Kwinana wasn’t a carpenter pick. Cook is a longstanding ALP member & activist who was preselected by the left. The independent candidate, and the greens, eroded the ALP vote there. Not a great result for the ALP, but not a thumb in the eye for carps.
Note that Adams did not win more primary votes than Cook in any booth except one. So much for her local profile. She is handsomely supported by prefs from Green and Liberal (how honourable for a supposed Unionist is that?).
2. Janine Freeman in Nollamara, Chris Tallentire in Gosnells and Lisa Baker in Maylands all romped it home in safe labor seats. Freeman’s the only one of those 3 who didn’t need a waive from State Exec to get preselected because she wasn’t a member of the party already. None of them were Carpenter picks, they were left-endorsed.
In those seats the Labor voters didn’t mind a new candidate with progressive views.
3. It was the 2 high-profile journalists picked by Carps who attracted a lot of spite and publicity from other journalists (who are too gutless to run themselves – they would rather ‘comment’ on what the major parties should do), who suffered at the polls.
the funniest thing is the MSM commentary that seems to go something like the state WA result is bad for Rudd, yet the federal results of losing Lyne and almost losing Mayo is somehow not so bad for the coalition. Great spinning
125 fulvio said it.
Finns I agree, with the caveat that Palin is a high-risk pick that could easily explode in McCain’s face. But so far it has worked very well, particularly her record of overturning the corrupt Repub leaders in AK. Obama is paying the price for months of platitudinous speeches that thrill the elites but leave the key demographics cold. That’s why he got no bounce from the Dem convention while McCain has got one from his convention. Now that McCain has the convention behind him he can ditch Bush and run as an independent, and if he sticks to that and makes no serious errors he will win.
Andrew at 133 – You obviously haven’t been listening to the same media I have.
It has been presented a bad result for all or perhaps better put a bit like a curate’s egg – good in parts for everyone.
Could we please leave US politics off the WA election threads.
Exactly – how dare they turn to the darkside. I wonder if the LIbs endorsed some high profile Journos would they have done the same thing ?
Oh and as I said on the other thread, D’Orazio’s love vote can be also attributed to the bulk of his old Ballajura seat being moved into West Swan to benefit Rita Saffioti
Better news for Labor from Riverton: 617 votes added, probably putting McRae back in front after preferences.
ALP 233 (36.1%) 38.2
LIB 226 (36.6%) 39.6
GRN 82 (13.3%) 9.5
CDP 24 (3.9%) 3.2
FFP 20 (3.2%) 2.6
IND 18 (2.9%) 1.9
Sorry WB, It’s just Adam suddenly appeared.
That should be LOW vote
(please can we have an “edit” function ?)
farking hell.
hold on to ya hats boys.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/08/2358365.htm
apprently 60,000 declartion votes in total ie absentee, proviosnal.
that is a shed load.
an e-shed load actualy ( e-shed in freo hired by waec for counting …)
OK William despite my current deep disapproval of all Sandgropers I will desist.
“… we’re not in a position to start the formal distribution of preferences…”
“I’m endeavouring to commence that over the weekend.”
So, no result until next week, eh?
how is “Nahan” pronounced? “Narn”? “NAY-hun”?
Remember, those postals were sent out during the first 2 weeks before the dirt really started flying, so it will be interesting really favoured.
it’s pronounced Nah-Harn.
it’s pronounced Neo-cOn
David Weber of the ABC says one National MP (doesn’t say who) says he won’t work with Labor.
I wonder if it’s Grant Woodhams ?
I don’t believe for a second the Nats will keep Labor in office. Unless Labor can get to 28 and can rely on Adams and Bowler, we’re out.
337 primary votes added in Albany.
ALP 133 (39.5%) 39.7
LIB 129 (38.3%) 32.4
NAT 31 (9.2%) 13.2
GRN 22 (6.5%) 7.4
CDP 16 (4.7%) 5.0
FFP 6 (1.8%) 2.3
adam
ye of little faith
145 – I pronounce it ‘I can’t believe the libs found someone to run who’s even more of a f*(king twat than Tony MacRae’
ABC website has changed its Kwinana prediction to ALP retain.
According to the ABC site, Sue Walker is still in the hunt in Nedlands – 0.3% vs Libs. They just updated that, and Wagin for some reason.
391 votes added in Forrestfield
ALP 150 (38.4%) 40.2
LIB 183 (46.8%) 40.9
GRN 35 (8.9%) 12.1
FFP 18 (4.6%) 3.5
CDP 5 (1.3%) 3.3
As Ben Chifley didn’t quite say “Faith is all very well but give me the numbers any day.”
Actually I think Nahan is pronounced: “Right Wing Lunatic”
127 votes added in Collie-Preston: ALP 45, LIB 60, GRN 13, FFP 8, CDP 1.
132 – Agree. Roger Cook was a left endorsed candidate, who has been an activist in the party for many many years. He followed factional and party processes to fairly win pre-selection, unlike Carpenter’s candidates and waiver was required.
I think Nahan seems like an interesting bloke, id rather have a right wing lunatic than a ‘corrupt’ politician.
So far Williams analysis of the postals/prepolls is holding true, except in Albany.
should say… NO waiver was required for Roger Cook
What just happened to the ABC counts? They just went backwards – back to only 68.5% – and much in doubt.
ABC news: Barnett offers Grylls deputy premiership. Royalties for regions “on the table”.
Forgive my ignorance – who’s Nahan?
Is this just a typo for Nathan that got run with?
Grylls has already ruled out a Deputy Premiership – he doesn’t want to be in a joint party room situation.
Mike Nahan = Liberal candidate for Riverton.
Read and learn
http://www.ipa.org.au/people/mike-nahan
Thank ye kindly
I don’t think they went backwards. The few I checked had the latest WAEC figures. What they have done is increased the tolerance for doubtful seats. Now there are 9. It also changes the state of the parties. Six of the doubtful are ALP seats, one Lib and three Ind. The ALP is leading in 4 one of which they are only 6 votes in front.
My comment was in answer to Nick 163
nahan is far from a right wing loony. Look at his CV. Very impressive, the guy is a very very intelligent guy, who both sides rate very highly.
The problem is he is the worlds worst marginal seat candidate, and recorded roughly 6% less of a swing compared to seats right next to him.
Gus face,
If the National wants to join ALP
If they choose the ALP, the ALP to govern no matter what, already has the number, the Nat gets what they want if they announce early. They have the advantage of getting in early and taking out the independants from the equations, if they wait they might get left out in the cold ie 28ALP + 2 Ind.
So if the Nat wants to go with ALP they strike now
If the Nationals wants to join Lib
If they move early, it eliminate any chance of joining the ALP. However the Lib will need them to form a coalition no matter what, as they cannot get to 28 seats. So if they wants to join the Lib, they can wait as long as they can before deciding where they leap
It would look really bad if they leap now and Labor retained government.
So if the Nat wants to go with the Lib, they what
So what did the Nat say
What the Nat has said is that, we will wait until the result is known from the election and choose a side
I think that clears it up
Grylls couldn’t possible accept a ministry after all he’s said. Evan by Australian standards, even by National Party standards, EVEN BY WA STANDARDS, that would be a bit much.
cheers Lenwx @ 170, yeah yeah regarding doubtful seats…but beforehand ABC had 71% or so of the votes counted (I think!), but now back to 68.5%…whereas WAEC now up to 73.5%…
Given Grylls’ insistence that he won’t join a Coalition, and won’t have a joint party room, surely the most likely scenario (assuming the ALP does not get to 28 seats + 2 independents) is a Liberal minority government with the Nationals committing to support them in matters of supply and confidence, but with all other bills requiring negotiation.
172 – I think describing Bill Johnston as a ‘leftie’ qualifies him to be a lunatic at least
No standards. No scruples. Just politicians.
So where’s his cv average joe? The link above & the info that he has done nothing but work for the IPA (a right wing Union basically) don’t provide any evidence that he’s not a triple gilt-edge f*&king twat and a right wing loony. Also look at his serial-killer glasses. Definitely not a great marginal seat candidate.
“Mike Nahan
Senior Fellow
Dr Mike Nahan was Executive Director from 1995 to 2005. Before that he was Director of the Institute’s State Policy Unit.”
Average Joe # 172, I agree. Nahan came across as a very intelligent bloke on ABC on Saturday. Would be a very capable MP.
Uh that was a reply to average joe 172, and yeh otis anybody who thinks Johnston is a dangerous leftie must be a dangerous righty.
Re the ABC site: It says less votes counted and the time last changed as last night, but in fact the latest votes are shown at least for the ones I checked.
Nahan conducted himself well last night on the ABC, the only thing was his accent.
Grylls won’t commit to Alliance with Libs.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96752
What’s his accent? Enoch Powell? ex-Rhodesian SAS? Braunau-am-Inn? I know you have some strange types over there.
183 the only thing Alexander Downer ever said that I agreed with was ‘It’s un-Australian to make fun of people’s accents’ (in response to being teased about his own) but since you’ve started, Glen, yeah Nahan comes across like some kind of triple gilt plated f*&king right wing loony twat with serial-killer glasses and a fascist mo and a weird drawly celtic accent.
Maybe he’s perfect for Riverton.
Adam # 185 , mixed American accent of some sort.
Some kind of Orkney Islands thing sounds like to me Adam.
“Honest” and “Frank” are, in respect of party to party discussions, in pollie and diplomatic speak the same as the Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times”.
Lenwx, time changed is actually 1 min ago (was 10 mins ago), you’re right about current votes…just that total votes counted percentage through me…
required # 185, that’s one reason I personally never considered going into politics in Australia. My accent (also mixed North American) from when I was a kid would insight too much prejudice from raving anit-Americans! Funny, Australians do seem to follow many American fads and fashions. And Anti-Americanism being one of them!
(threw)
Can we forget about Nahan until we hear something on Riverton!
Adams doesn’t look like a lock to me…
“Also at Parliament House this morning was newly elected member for Kwinana, Carol Adams.
Ms Adams said while counting was still underway, she had received a call from the Premier about her intentions.
She joked that she had opened her diary and told him she would “have to get back to him”.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96752
Nick: I meant the time on the LHS
Nahan’s accent isn’t the only problem, he is also extremely unpersonable and condescending in person. So it wasn’t just his accent working against him. Plus he hadn’t done a single mail out until the election was called.
Anyway yeah, he could get done in Riverton.
I’m looking at “Last updated Mon Sep 8 01:24PM”
glen 194, she didnt win it, alp did
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/guide/kwin.htm
Appears to be some misunderstanding about the ‘In doubt’ column on the ABC site. The in doubt seats are just placed under their incumbent party, its not an indication of who is currently ahead or likely to win. (So don’t add the ‘Total won’ to the ‘In doubt’ for each party)
abc site doesn’t deal well with independents Sean
Average Joe # 196
“unpersonable and condescending in person”
Yeah I’ve had some (American) Uni lecturers like that in WA. You can get away with it there but not in public office!
This threads getting nasty!!
Glen, interesting comment provided in that article you referred us to at 194.
“Labor has yet to concede defeat and remains a likely contender to govern with the help of one independent should it win an additional seat as counting continues.”
next thread everybody
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/942#comments
Actually, can we please not just march over to the next thread – it’s specifically for discussion of the results. Please continue more general discussion here.
Hi glen
is the vision of victory fading into a dim dark dimension yet?
almost like a lonely voice waiting for a echo on a bleak cold iceberg,drifting aimlessly on an never-ending sea.
have a nice day
At the moment, how many seats have Labor secured, leaving aside the doubtful seats William has listed on the other thread?
According to the ABC site, 25, to the Libs 19.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
Frank,
I think that total currently includes Kwinana.
Yep, the WAEC site isn’t showing Seat totals for each party.
Thanks Frank
I just googled a few HTV cards for Kwinana. Family First, Greens and Liberals all preferenced Adams ahead of Cook… all adds up to Cook getting squashed, unless some FF / Greens prefs went walkabout. The page doesn’t have the ‘notional distribution’ thing, probably because it was always thought to be ALP vs Lib.
But how many followed the HTV Card ? I noticed a large number of people refusing to take ANY HTV cards and voting “blind”, which is why we’re not seeing any universal swings to either side.
No matter what the Greens’ HTV says, 60 -70% of those predisposed to vote Greens will not stomach a preference to the conservatives.
I totally agree with that.
I note that Glen over on the new thread is valiantly holding on the slim hope that the Libs will get up, but judging by the ABC’s figures, it won’t happen.
Um… Carol Adams isn’t conservative, she’s ex-Labor. Pretty well-known as such, too, being the mayor and all.
Its all over guys, Labor scrape back in by a whisker. 28-29 seats plus the odd (sometime very odd) independent.
Those hoping that pre poll and postals will help the Libs are deluded, look at pre polls for the recent elections – they favour Labor, postals may favour Libs but they will not be enough.
Grylls will figure this out and back the winner.
Whats next the ACT?
Saying that Labor has won doesn’t actually make it so. Predictions at the moment have Liberals/Nat team winning by 1 seat, could go either way.
Hmm, Dr Harry Phillips is speculating that the Governor may call for another Election.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96607
All this just points to the instability of the situation.
From “The World Today”,
Kim Beazley, Kerry Chikarovsky and Hugh Mackay discuss a week in politics that saw the Federal Liberal Party almost losing a safe seat in a by-election; the Nationals losing one, and looking at their future; Labor on the nose in the WA state poll; and the implosion of the NSW Labor Government.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2358283.htm
Interesting interview. Bomber is pessimistic.
Average Joe
What we know is that the Libs needed to win 8 seats to form Govt. At this time they have won 3.
My prediction is they have lost.
ruawake,
If someone held a gun to my head and made me predict, I’d be with you I think.
Still, it’s not exactly an easy count to keep track of, is it?
So, Average, it’s now a Liberals/ Nat team is it?
Saying so don’t make it so.
Don’t you love how are right leaning brethern enjoy polishing Cow Pats
Bowler rejects Liberal offer of Speakership.
I’m not calling it either way – the only people who seem to be calling it are the Labor guys, who are going against what William is saying, and are making calls like Labor have won Morley.
Labor have probably lost Morley. Still does not alter anything,
so, pray tell, what seats are Labor going to win of the undecided? I’m assuming your calling riverton for Labor?
Brendan Grylls on 720, taking calls as well
http://www.abc.net.au/perth/radio/player.htm?winstream=http://abc.net.au/perth/onair/720stream.asx&ramstream=
Average Joe
No Joe, I am factoring in that Labor lose Morely, Riverton and Southern River.
You will realise soon just how hard it is for the Libs to win Govt.
How on Earth do you think Southern River is going to come back into the Labor column, ruawake? Most of the absentees would surely come from Canning Vale people, who are hardly likely to favour Paul Andrews…
Here is our Anthony briefing the ABC 720 crew how his computer program works.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKxHWENj9_w
Video of the WAEC portion of the Tally Room at the ABC, where the results come through.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mMVZiqURjM
Talkon
Er if you read what I posted I said Labor will lose Southern River.
So you must be calling Wanneroo as Labor too. Because Labor have to win 4/5 and your saying Riverton will fall Liberal.
Joe
Guise will win Wanneroo on Green preferences.
Fulvio @ 214 and Frank @ 215
Your theory about Greens voters doesn’t hold up.
45 % of Greens voters in the last Federal Election followed the Greens HTV in OConnor and preferenced the Nats ahead of the ALP in an effort to unseat Tuckey.
Where the Greens direct preferences to the ALP they flow at the rate 81% and where they go “open” preferences they flow at the rate of 75%.
If Whitby gets up in Morley, it will be thanks to the Greens deciding to direct preferences at the last minute.
Ten News says the Nationals are demanding a ministry – a particular one I assume? Reporter talks of Carpenter being dumped for McGowan or a MacTiernan-Wyatt ticket if the result goes the wrong way.
i think allanah would have a good chance mgowan is very closley linked with carps and will be seen as another carps arrogant and wants every thing hsi own way if labor do lose it will be allanah as leader groming ben wyatt to take on the next election
proably agriculture or mabye even planning and infranstucure which would help with royalties for the regoins
Wyatt should take over
Try Regional Development.
but the problem with wyatt taking over is he has not been in long allanah is a good choice with him as leader in waiting labor wont want to make the mistake the libs did on buswell a leader who had only been in parliment for 3 yrs when made leader
I hate to bag a previous employer, but 10 and News should not be used in the same sentence. :0
Alannah is clearly the best choice as Labor leader in the event Labor go into opposition – she’s polarising in some parts, but enough people like her to make her ideal for a situation where there could be another election sooner rather than later.
It helps that she’s generally considered the best performing minister over the last two terms.
Actually from a political view it makes more sense for the nats to side with labor.
Once they go into an agreement with the libs they are stuck there. The libs can renege on the deal down the track, blaming labor for leaving them a budget mess. If the nats pulled out they would be seen as economically irresponsible and would probably suffer for causing an early election.
However with labor if the nats felt they were getting done over they could force an early election and be viewed as holding a (labor) govt to account.
2 other things, the WA farmers federation have no objection to a lab/ nat partnership and even if lab get to form govt without the nats they will still need them for the upper house.
And I don’t think the nats would change from lib to lab or vv rather than forcing an early election, its been done before but the minors have suffered because of the perception of chaos.
I was amused by the comment at 222. ‘Bomber is pessimistic’.
Surely a tautology.
it is interesting that ten has reported that bredon grylls will make a Decision with state council of the nat’s which is the body that rules the lay party i am sure its members will no be pleased to form government with labor if liberals and labor both match what the nats want i think they will go with the libs
I’m surprised that no one has joined the dots yet – but then again, maybe they have and they don’t want to think about the Ace card that only the Liberal Party can play to make all this happen.
So how does a proposed new WA Liberal government come up with $700M additional to what has been budgeted and already promised? How could they? And how do they do it in such a way that keeps everyone but the Labor Party/Greens happy?
There is a way IMO for the Libs to do this deal with the Nats – and it’s something that Labor can’t do, given their expressed views and Party stand point.
The Libs have obviously been given the ‘Go’ card on U Mining by the electorate, and as this will be the new boom industry with new money and new royalties coming in, $700 million in ‘Royalties for Regions’ is realistically and readily achievable. Nobody I know has joined the dots yet, but to me this would be the most appropriate and most acceptable solution moving forward for all concerned. I have done extensive research on this (U Mining) subject over many years now.
The U Mining ventures just raring to go in WA are bountiful, and there is huge money at stake for all concerned. Approved supply contracts have been signed and approved with the Indians and the Chinese at Federal Govt. level and WA is sitting on more U than the rest of Australia combined. We know that already!
Obviously due-dilligence and worlds best practice standards must be attained and this will take time with the likelihood royalties would begin to generate in around 3 years time if they hit the ‘Go’ button now. The Nats would not likely be expecting a cheque for $700M tomorrow after all.
214,
“Fulvio Sammut Says:
September 8th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
No matter what the Greens’ HTV says, 60 -70% of those predisposed to vote Greens will not stomach a preference to the conservatives.”
I can vouch for that. A girlfriend was handing out HTV for one of the Greens upper house candidates on Saturday. She hasn’t got a conservative bone in her body. Even if the HTV she was handing out had conservatives at #2, she wouldn’t put them there. She puts (lower or upper house) Greens first, Libs last and then ranks the rest as per the HTV
…..
217 Ruawake,
Yes, ACT are next. October 18th. I’m working one of the poll booths that day abotu 5 minutes from home
No 251
Easy, there’s a $2 billion surplus complimented by the prospect of uranium mining.
No 253
And boy, can’t I wait to expeditiously eject John Stanhope.
Wayne Thompson is completely right. Grylls has openly stated he is all for Uranium Mining. Liberals want to do it, and Labor don’t. Liberals can make good on the 700 mil royalties for regions, Labor will not.
Unfortunate Mr Carpenter
Ruawake@ 238
The Liberals will win Wanneroo easy. They are most concerned about Riverton. Riverton will decide government. If you think Riverton wll fall to the Libs then you should revise your predictions.
What about Albany it is getting awfully close there??
If Albany falls the Libs are home and hosed, shouldnt postals favour the Libs there???
Riverton is 50-50 but clearly the ALP cannot count on that seat.
If Grylls thinks that that National Party voters would tolerate an alliance with the guilty party (ALP) then he should think again. We conservatives would rather spill a beaker full of hydrochloric acid on our laps than do anything which endorses, encourages or assists in any way Carpenter and his cronies.
re: Generic Person
GP,
Looks like you get around a lot.
Tonight you have claimed to be living in NSW and voting the ACT.
How many states and territories do you vote in?
I am willing to believe that the West Australian was biased (particularly on the basis of personal animosities), I am not sure how much of an explanation of the result it is.