Labor needs to win four out of these five to be in a position to form a majority if John Bowler and Carol Adams (assuming she wins) support them.
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ELECTION NIGHT
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LATEST
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| ALP | LIB | Total | ALP | LIB | Total | ||
| Riverton | 8002 | 8034 | 16036 | 9534 | 9602 | 19136 | |
| Wanneroo | 7299 | 7293 | 14592 | 10769 | 11014 | 21783 | |
| Albany | 8182 | 8065 | 16247 | 9629 | 9572 | 19201 | |
| Forrestfield | 8177 | 7935 | 16112 | 9581 | 9450 | 19031 | |
| Collie-Preston | 8299 | 7883 | 16182 | 9909 | 9488 | 19397 | |
Riverton. Going into the election with a 2.1 per cent margin, Labor’s Tony McRae has done remarkably well to remain in the hunt while some neighbouring seats were recording swings upwards of 6 per cent. Liberal candidate Mike Nahan has complained Labor pulled out all stops to retain this seat while fatally neglecting Jandakot and Southern River. Nahan nonetheless holds a 68 vote lead, which has widened by 18 since yesterday.
Wanneroo. This might be a similar story to the Riverton area in that Labor held back the tide in Joondalup, but were dumped in its safer neighbour Wanneroo. Labor member Dianne Guise led by six votes at the close of election night but it’s been one-way traffic ever since, Liberal candidate Paul Miles now believed to be ahead by 240. The swing was especially severe at the northern end of the electorate where the new development is concentrated: Carramar, Tapping and Banksia Grove accounted for 4908 booth votes compared with 2642 in 2005, and Labor’s share of that vote went from 61.4 per cent to 52.0 per cent. A similar story in this area helped the Liberals gain the corresponding seat of Cowan at the federal election.
Albany. Peter Watson is another Labor member who has performed outstandingly, picking up a 2.6 per to remain in the hunt in a seat that had been pulled from underneath him by redistribution. However, late counting has pared his lead back from 117 to 57 since Saturday. The Albany booths recorded an anti-Labor swing of just under 1 per cent, suggesting the swing to Labor in the Stirling parts of the electorate (where they played dead at previous elections) approached double digits. The Nationals vote was up from 5.1 per cent to 13.4 per cent, despite their nomination of a 20-year-old candidate.
Forrestfield. The Labor lead fell precipitously on Monday, but has since stabilised as counting proceeds slowly – with about 500 votes added today it’s gone from 115 to 131.
Collie-Preston. Labor’s Mick Murray looks home and hosed with a 421 vote lead and no trend against him.
Morley. The Liberal lead dipped intriguingly yesterday, but the rate slowed today with 691 new votes breaking only 356-335 to Labor, putting the lead at 375.
80 Comments
cmon ciccio… let’s put a few dollars on it…
i said ‘deal’ not ‘coalition’
ROFLMAO.
So NOW I know who it is
How is the family ?
^ getting old, mate… getting old…
how’s the folks ? your sisters ?
good plonk this year ?
now, now lads…..back on topic
All good
Last time I saw you was at the Bird’s Wedding – I see Jim more often than you 
Ask him about the power pole
“the bird” = GOLD
^ sorry MO…
ah, yeah – the deal’s done…
and i’m moving to menzies to cash in the 700 million
bucks of services gap-teeth is about blow in the bush…
Ahh, I think I’ve found the post shtuwang was referring to
According to the ABC site, Carol Adams is looking better in Kwinana… now got a 1.4% margin over Cook. Greens seem to be up slightly, which would do it.
But these are still Primary Votes – preferences won’t be distributed until Saturday as mentioned by Anthony Green.
That, plus the addition of postal votes, the final result will be interesting.
shtuwang :
Re the “Deal”, I’m happy either way, because as soon *D’enti Storti makes desicion which upsets the nats, oh boy
* Typing in the Bivongesi dialect is hard
The West reports a spill against Carpenter likely within weeks regardless of outcome – reckons McGowan and surprisingly Ripper are the front-runners, ahead of Roberts and MacTiernan. A “rank and file member” who “would not be named” – not much of a source, I wouldn’t have thought – talks of “a growing feeling the Nationals won’t do the deal”, of “most staff” having begun emptying their desks, and of Ripper likely to take over “just to steady the ship and within six to eight months they would be looking for a more serious leadership contender”. Quote: “No one is prepared at this stage to put their head in the hangman’s noose for Labor for the first six months in Opposition. Alannah MacTiernan has been approached but she doesn’t have much of an appetite for it. There’s no support within the party – she’s running around making some noises but that’s it”. Another “Labor insider” says: “No one seriously thinks that the Natinoals will do the deal with us”.
Another report says “growing speculation last night that Nationals leader Brendon Grylls would secure a ministerial portfolio to oversee his party’s ambitious royalties for regions plan under a new deal being negotiated with two major political parties” (remembering the ridiculously low bar this paper sets on the newsworthiness of “speculation”). He says a ministry would be conditional on him maintaining “independence”. A month ago he was ruling out the possibility.
lol how do you maintain independence with a ministry?
Gonna be a bit like herding cats if the Libs form a coalition with the NATS and independents. Especially given the hatred there must exist between a few of them and given they have some friends on the other side. You would be looking at 30/29? or 31/28.
The potential is there for the Liberals reputation to take a battering as the spite leaks out. Certainly make for an entertaining government.
As I’ve said, The West are talking up the Libs with all this speculative talk. Mind you my semi paesano (our parents are from neighbouring villages) has basically confirmed what was reported by William.
But unless Grylls is a good actor, my gut instinct is still on a Labor/Nats Alliance.
Is that the hard copy West? I ain’t seeing it online.
Sounds to me like the West is getting spooked and trying to stop the Nats siding with Labor. Devious, slimy paper that it is.
Of course it’s the dead tree version, and The West is getting spooked – How dare that Hillbilly Grylls help the very party we tried so damn hard to get rid of.
Frank can i ask you where you base your Assumptions he seemd preety much 50 50 to me he wants the best deal but i reckon his mind has not been made up due to the fact he is bringing the deal to the partys state council which is the entire lay party and i doubt alot of them could stomach a labor/nat government
Especially Max trenorden
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/09/08/2358450.htm
go to that link its abc stateline profile on grylls and it states that max had big objections to being inderpedant and he was even willing to run as an independant. now i no your a labor man but you cant let that block your vision clearly the libs are in a better place to form government with them Especially with the prospect of liberals greens blocking royalties for regions
grylls may want to go with labor but he has to get approval from his party first and alot of the lay party would not even stomach labor unless it was real attractive but the libs will offer exacally what labor is so it will come down to the upper house and how damaged a labor government is
Maybe something like Winston Peters in New Zealand? His party supports the minority Labour govt, and he’s a minister, but not in cabinet… whatever that means. NZ politics confuses me.
Max is one of the Dinosaurs I mentioned earlier
Just face it, Brendan will side with the party who has the most lower house seats, and at this tage it ain’t the Libs, who will be struggling to find a speaker and still have the numbers.
Brendan will overrule the Lay Party there is precedent with SA and he’s campaigned on NOT being aligned to the Libs, hence the larger vote – he capitualtes and those progressives who voted to dissaccociate from the Libs will punish the Nats at the Ballot Box.
Anyway, Mad Max is in the Upper house.
but the speaker can cast a vote if the vote is tied so if its 29 29 he can exersise the deciding vote
but frank grylls has said in the public that all new members of the upper house will have a decide aswell as lower house members thats why he wants to wait till the weekend and the lay party is having a say which will have an impact on there choice no member of parliment wants to lose preselection do they
But the final decision is Grylls
And I’m sensing he will follow his mentor in South Australia and the fact he’s been talking to alan Carpenter both informally and Formally for over a year means that he will side with Labor.
sheesh that sounds like a bit of a mess
not really so lets say grylls gets told by his state council not to go with labor and he does he would infuriate his party and the other lower house members and carps may just become premier with just one nat grylls you have got to rember that there is only one nat in south australia and she formed government with other inderpendants and the labor government was in its first term this one is going inot its third with alot of baggage which grylls will have on his mind fine he keeps labor in for 4 more years then they suffer a huge landslide and the libs manage to form on there own the best thing for labor would be to go into oppostion have a leadership change that leader grooms wyatt for a couple of yrs then he vs the lib nat government and will probaly win if labor dont fall apart in the meantime the last government to win unexpecally in wa was tonkins and he got booted out in one terms so could the libs
While I’m hoping that Brendan does side with Labor (and watch the Libs stab Barnett in the back and cntinue the infighting) if it goes the other way, we’ll still see the same thing
Especially when all the big ticket items promised by the Libs get tweaked to benefit “the cockies”.
yikes, a fullstop would be nice…
How would the Nats get all members of the upper house together, when they don’t know who they are and won’t for weeks? They definitely have two in Agricultural and one in M&P, but they could get a third in Ag, one on SW and maybe a second in M&P.
Southernboy: for the love of god, use punctuation.
Speaking of the Tonkin Govt, these were the problems of the first 12 months.
http://www.ccentre.wa.gov.au/index.cfm?event=historiansReport
As I’ve said before, the Liberal and Labor need to form a Grand Alliance. Make the Nationals the official opposition and confine them to ancient tomes of history.
Wrote to quick I should have proof read Bird he has said it in the Media well 60% has been counted so maybe by Sunday 75 % has been done so they should know i agree with your Grand Alliance notion but it wont happen
I think for the Nats sake, they should grand-stand a lot, make it look like they are independent, and extract the best deal, and then join the Libs. They should also reserve the right to vote against any legislation proposed by the Libs. They will need this over the next term to keep in the spotlight and look to be independent.
As far as I know the SA Nat in cabinet is agreed to be able to break cabinet solidarity on issues, as was Michael Moore, an independent in the ACT Legislative Assembly when he entered cabinet a few parliaments ago. Having your pie and eating it too.
I think your grand alliance would be highly dysfunctional and make the Nats, as the opposition, look fantastic in comparison.
Colin Barnett has made his proposal in a letter to the Nats, saying that the Libs got 30,000 more primary votes than the ALP and stressing the support of the regions through the Royalties to Regions and the natural close philosophies the two parties share.
Who knows whether Carps will actually make his submission public like Barnett has??
RE 34.
what kind of cad makes their love letters personal.
oops i meant to say “makes their love letters public”
no matter the deal, it will collapse.
Then the Chinese Communist Party will take over what is left from what they don’t own already and WA will be another province of the peoples republic.
MWHAHAHAHAHA
The evil plan proceeds apace!
Barnett is not really trying.
And is sounding very shrill about to blow a gasket each time Grylls says something nice about Carpenter
This is going to backfire BIG time on the libs. The Nats don’t like being lectured to.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/barnett-puts-weight-on-nationals-to-support-libs-20080912-4fdw.html
This would have to be one of the most drawn out election sagas I can remember. The vote counting almost seems irrelevant now… it’s the Nats show!
Sort of not the way to say things if your trying to develop a good working relationship. It ignores the NATS as being an independent entity and assumes it an arm of the Liberal party.
Can I once again reiterate how shamefully slow the vote counting is in WA!
Hell, at this rate, you’d think Robert Mugabe had seized control over the WAEC!
No 40
Correction: You wish it would backfire, Frank.
Fact of the matter is that if Nats voters wanted Labor in power they would have voted Labor directly!
Oh come on… Is anyone going to honestly tell me the electors of: Wagin, Central Wheatbelt, Blackwood Stirling and Moore would be happy for the ALP to remain in Government.
These electors would not vote Labor if you paid them… and that is what Carpenter is going to do if the Nats back the ALP to form government.
No, They wanted to give Labor a scare – if they wanted a Liberal Govt, they would’ve followed their HTV card to the letter
Do try harder
Country folk do NOT like being treated like mugs, as shat Colin Barnett is doing atm.
Barnett is behaving like he’s Premier already, the Nats haven’t yet signed up with the Liberals.
Which is Barnett’s problem, he actually makes Carpenter look like the shy, retiring type.
No 47
Rudd was acting like PM as Opposition Leader with all the summits and crap that he was holding. You blokes didn’t care then. Double standards and hypocrisy as usual.
The Nats arent going to sign up with Labor because they are the least stable option.
Carps is going to be given the flick regardless of what Lispy wants. Thus Lispy will have to deal with another potential ALP leader, something he doesnt want to do. How can Lispy guarantee that Carps wont be challenged?
Second, the ALP have the CCC and Veranus Island Report coming out, and it cannot look good backing an incompetent and corrupt administration just for money. That would not go down well with Nat voters.
Third, how many Nat voters if you polled them would prefer a Labor or Liberal Government?? 80 – 20 id say in favour of the Libs. They need to respect their constituency, and the fact that they ran on Independence because they thought the Libs under Sniff would implode, which was wrong. The Libs pulled off an amazing result, and had it not been for the Libs reducing Labor to a rump the Nats would have been finished as a political force under a majority Labor Government as their original 17 seat nominal lead suggested.
The Lib supporters here seem to be a little rattled by the signs of independent thinking by the Nats.
I totally agree, and you can also see it in Barnett’s tone of voice when talking about it as well. And I’ll predict if Brendan doesn’t do as he is told, then watch The Libs, in concert with The West attempt the mother of all campaigns to mount votes of no confidence in the Govt.
If the NATS do go with the Libs it will obviously be an acrimonious coupling. Expect regular explosions.
No 52
Brendan has had his moment of fame, now it’s time to stop the games and join the Libs!
And if he doesn’t are you going to throw a wobbly ?
{obviously}
No 55
I would call for a vote of no confidence in the government.
And as Professor David Black said on Stateline, it would be defeated because the Nats would vote with Labor
Would Generic person, Glen, Barnett et al be displaying this attitude if the party with the 4 swinging votes was Family First or CDP? There seems to be too much disrespect for any independent party exercising its independence.
The valid point has been made that, if the Nationals are always the junior partner to the Libs in a coalition, what would be the justification for their existence?
labor will have the most seats in parliament so logically they should be favoured to by the nats when thinking of who to back. Labor also have the luxury of knowing exactly what can be redirected, cut and moved to accomodate the nats requirements because theyve been delivering the budgets for the past 8 years. the libs really have no idea of where the fat lies in the public service and program allocation and that is reflected in their rather pathetic 3 page attempt in trying to woo the nats. Labor thanks to the luxury of incumbancy can provide a full costed and comprehensive blueprint to meet the nationals demands. finally state labor will more than likely recieve federal assistance to offset the budgetary pressures of finding 2.8 billion over the next four years, the libs certainly will not. The issue may well be resolved because only the labor party is in a position to actually deliver what the nats want. It appears barnett is fully aware of this and this is why he is focusing on the electoral aspects of an alliance as opposed to tangibly meeting the nats requests. All things being equal it can only be a labor nats alliance if the nats want their royalties for regions.
No 61
Sorry, that doesn’t wash mate. If the Libs were to form government they would get the appropriate briefings by Treasury and other departments, as is applicable to newly elected governments.
Furthermore, you cannot possibly presume that a Carpenter government would be more likely to secure Federal assistance any more than Barnett government. There are appropriate probity measures.
Nothing from our scrutineers this evening?
apparently labor is one vote behind in albany now
Sorry fella, this is wrong. If you’d ever been to WA, you’d know this… the Nats have been running on the same line throughout the leaderships of Birney / Omodei / Buswell / Barnett, for a few years now. Also, up north where the Nats are running for the first time, they’ve damn near displaced the Liberals as the second party in ALP-held seats. (They’ve come second in Pilbara, and may do the same in North West once the other preferences get distributed – anyone know which way Fullarton swung?) Hard to see how siding with the Libs is ‘respecting their constituency’ there.
Also, Labor haven’t been reduced to a rump – they have more seats in the parliament than any other party, and are in the position of trying to negotiate a minority government. If you want to see a Labor demolition, wait a couple of years for NSW.
sorry generic person, but you reinforce my points. Yes the libs could ask treasury to give them a briefing when they form government. right now they are still the opposition and have no access to in depth treasury analysis. they have no means of offering a fully costed proposal. their pre election costings were at best very light on!
As for negotiating with the feds, surely you dont postulate that a hostile liberal government would be as sucessful in negotiating a greater share of gst and royalties than a labor government. Probity measures are about general process, the negotiations preceding that at coag and other forums decide the cut the states pick up from the feds. Howard punished WA for years by withholding competition and other assorted funds. Labor would obviously secure more federal funds than the libs. sorry but any way you look at it its only labor that can currently offer the nats a fully costed proposal. With the libs it more a well see once we get into power. I repeat only labor can give the nats what they’ve asked for.
And Barnett has always said that the libs, upon assuming office will be doing a “Financial Audit” to see where savings could be made to fund their “Tax Cuts”, so I wou;dn’t be surprised if they were the first to go in appeasing thge Nats.
According to Ch 9 News BArnett & Buswell got a briefing today and Buswell was saying they “can accomodate the Nationals” by being fischal Conservatives, which is code for expect any loony left funding to be scrapped.
No counts today…all gearing up for the big push tomorrow.
Not so fast there Frank – remember, Rudd used the same turn of phrase trying to get elected.
Ch 9 story referred to above – note it’s the second story.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/video?vxSiteId=1929a7b6-d2c6-4f56-bacf-9ca1759ced99&vxChannel=Nine%20News&vxClipId=1201_080912_ninenews&vxBitrate=300
He said fiscal discipline, not fiscal conservatism. (Unless I missed something…) Makes plenty of sense for a sudden $700 million hole opening up in their plans, loony left or otherwise.
Did you see the way they had the Liberal mainfolk walking out down the steps? Barnett and Constable, side by side, with other Libs off to the side / behind. Looks very much like she’s going to be his deputy premier. Sure, I’m just reading body language, but it beats tea leaves…
Also, they had a likely seat count as ALP 27 / Lib 26 / Nat 4 / Ind 2, with Riverton and Wanneroo going to the Libs. Where’d that come from? I thought Woollard and Adams were looking OK in their seats. Ah well, it’s only channel 9…
I’ll bet they’re doing that to counter the lack of women in senior cabinet positions and/or trying to do their version of the Rudd/Gillard team.
And I did mean fiscal discipline – got the two mixed up.
And on Ch 7, they had footage of Buswell pulling funny faces etc, when pointing out a possible Labor Bloodbath re leadership.
Funny faces eh? Similar to his, um, comment about warming his extremities to Rebecca Carmody on the night?
Yep, he’s our Dan Quayle
Why is Van Olsen some sort of expert now?
The Labor lot looked fairly confident on that clip. I guess they are happy they still have a chance.
Would be fun to watch the reaction of the Federal Liberals if the WA NATS deserted the traditional coalition. Might give Joyce impetus to push for something similar..lol
Because he has a piece of paper saying so, and he teaches kiddies about it, oh and he wrote a book on El Rodente, and worked for the Mad Monk
its highly likely that federal labor will serve at least one more term. The more progressive federal nats will be looking to deal themselves into the game the same way that grylls has. The future of the nats federally lies in them being able to develop brand differentiation from the libs. Grylls may be just about to deleiver them all the brand differentiation they can cope with.
Here are the Ch 7 stories from the past week or so.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/video/-/wa#embedded-video-top
New thread.