http://tvnz.co.nz/view/news_minisite_index_skin/news_election_08_group

See towards the end of the ‘Watch! Election 08 Video’ list

“New Zealand Election Tightens;

National Party drops 7% to 40.5% to be just ahead of Labour (37.5%)
”

What has Gary been smoking now?

I wouldnt put money on the Nats at those odds. But if you predict a slaughter then lay $1000 on it.

Labor odds will shorten- but you can all give me a hard time if they don’t.

It seems the labor voter would rather stay at home on these days and because it is voluntary voting, they can!

Heres hoping for rain eh?

I am certainly no expert on NZ elections. I have been asssiting the broader labor movement with some work generally relating to the Rights@Work campaign we had here in 2005-07 and this has included some interesting polling of NZ voters. Of course there are many many differences in the political environments, so I am not saying there is a Rights@Work campaign the same as we had.

The minor parties will play a big role in this election. My understanding is that they kind of do now, although Labor has not needed to form a coalition with the greens currently as there are enough other sympathetic parties to get them the confidence.

There are very few minor parties that will join with the Nationals in a coalition in most electoral cycles, they dont sit close enough to the centre, but do occupy the broadest slice of the right. There is of course the Act party who are way out to the right and their support for the Nationals is something I believe is something the Nats will not want talked up.

Elf, I apreciate your concern about me being mislead by my comrades in NZ, but i can assure you the events that i mentioned have actually just happend and the narrowing will actually happen also- it has begun.

If Labor are even close to a position to join with minor parties to form government after this election it will be a minor miracle. They have been in for very (many say too) long and the previous failed Nat government is a distant memory for most.

In my opinion, Elf’s pick for seats is well thought out. It is not impossible that it could be the actual result and Labor could still form a government on those numbers.

The advantage a well prepared labor movement has in this system is that it is not compolsory voting. Turn out or “mobilisation” is what good unions do better than any other organisations in society. I mean when was the last rally you remember where thousands of Libs hit the streets to support something their party was doing?

Therefore only need 6 seats from Labor and the minor parties to take control.

Not a big ask given the sentiment in the country but it is hard to tell with the mixed member proportional system because many MP’s get in because they are on the ‘List” and are not diredctly voted for.

Beware the mutterings of your brethren across the ‘ditch’. I doubt they have a good handle on the realities of the New Zealand pysche, which is by natural inclination far less left leaning than Australia.

New Zealand never had a ‘Eureka’ moment and the union movement was sorted out long long ago by Robert Muldoon (in the 70’s).

Labor generally only gets into power when the Nationals have made a ‘balls up’ of it all. Seldom becasue they actually appeal to the electorate in their own right. (Which is I think similar to the situation with the Libs in WA – they are looking likely only because Labor botched what should have been a realatively easy job – what with the boom and everything).

The Nationals won 48 seats the last time around, up from 27 in 2002. Labor only won 50 and had to gain support of minor parties to govern. It would be fair to say the mood of the nation will deliver Government to the Nat’s in their own right.
So……….

Labour 45 – 50
National 61
New Zealand First 0
Other Minor parties 10 – 15

I’m wondering if you could offer some sort of perspective as to what the minor parties are likely to do this election, and how much influence they are likely to have in regards to who forms government? The wikipedia article is disappointedly (and actually unusually) skimpy on those details.

There is still a chance the Nationals could win a majority in their own right (I sincerely doubt Labour will.) So what do the other parties do in such a situation? Would it be a similar story to the current WA election – government goes to the highest bidder? Or are there informal alliances present? Or are there parties who vow to give supply votes to the party who wins the most seats/popular vote?

I vaguely remember NZ First stating last election that they would never block supply and consequently vote with the government on those confidence matters, but not much else. It’s a very strange system they have in NZ, and while it has its merits I imagine it can be unbelievably frustrating for the government of the day. Mind you, in reality it probably isn’t any different to the Australian system, where minor party support is generally required to pass legislation in the Senate anyway.