The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 respondents, of whom 181 (exact figures provided) said they preferred that the Nationals form an alliance with the Liberals against 129 who preferred Labor (44 per cent to 32 per cent). Of the former group, “33 per cent said they believed National voters were traditionally more Liberal than Labor, 32 per cent said the big swing in the election showed voters wanted to get rid of Labor, 21 per cent said Labor had ignored country people, 15 per cent said they preferred Mr Barnett and 6 per cent said it was because of Labor’s one-vote, one-value legislation”. The Liberals were favoured 53-47 on voting intention, although Alan Carpenter retains a lead of 47 per cent to 37 per cent as preferred premier. “Nearly eight out of 10” expressed support for major city projects being shelved to accommodate Royalties for Regions.
The West also reports Jim McGinty “has conceded Labor has probably lost the crucial seats of Wanneroo and Riverton”, where the Liberals say they lead by 280 and 62 votes. The Liberals believe themselves to be 28 votes behind in Albany, whereas Labor thinks the Liberals are one vote ahead. Unless recounts are called, the matter should be settled with tomorrow’s full distribution of preferences. Other seats which might yet hold surprises in store:
North West. Labor’s Vince Catania is the presumed winner of this seat having gained a 1.3 per cent swing, an outwardly remarkable result. However, hidden within this figure is one of the stories of the election: the Nationals polled 22.3 per cent after failing to contest the equivalent seats in 2005, gouging 10.1 per cent from the Liberal primary vote along with 7.2 per cent from Labor. This puts them in third place on 22.3 per cent behind 36.4 per cent for Labor and 27.0 per cent for Liberal. Preferences from independent Lex Fullarton (7.1 per cent), and to a lesser extent Greens candidate Peter Shaw (7.2 per cent, most of which will flow to Labor) might yet give them the 4.7 per cent boost they need to get ahead of the Liberals, in which case they would comfortably win the seat on Liberal preferences. The difference between the primary and notional two-party results suggest as many as 40 per cent of Nationals preferences were flowing to Labor (UPDATE: A Labor source writes to say it was more like a third, Labor’s other preferences coming from Fullarton; expects a significant proportion of Fullarton votes, including donkey votes, to go straight to Labor rather than helping the Nationals close their gap on the Liberals). However, it would have been a very different story in the Agricultural and South West region seats which the Nationals actually won, and to which their MPs will have to return after deciding which horse to back.
Kwinana. Independent candidate Carol Adams, who it must be said has reason to be displeased with the ALP, may have crowed too early when she expressed interest in the police and local government portfolios. As the count progressed her primary vote deficit against Labor increased from 15.4 per cent to 18.7 per cent, leaving her needing 77 per cent of preferences from the other candidates. Antony Green estimates she will receive 85 per cent, perhaps 90 per cent, of the 18.8 per cent Liberal vote. However, her share of other candidates’ votes (10.5 per cent Greens, 3.8 per cent Family First and 1.7 per cent for another independent) is likely to be in the high sixties. That makes it a very close call.
Alfred Cove. On Wednesday, The West Australian reported that Liberal candidate Chris Back was “closing” on independent member Janet Woollard, who led by just 20 votes. However, nothing has been heard since. Woollard trails Back 43.3 per cent to 25.3 per cent on the primary vote, and will need about 73 per cent of the preferences from Labor (20.3 per cent), the Greens (9.5 per cent) and the Christian Democratic Party (1.5 per cent).
In the upper house, the only certain result is the reliable North Metropolitan region, which has returned three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens member. The Liberals have also done very well to win three seats in the other two metropolitan regions, in which the Greens and the third Labor are fighting for the final seats. The Nationals have won two seats in Agricultural and are in what looks like a winning battle with Family First for a third, with the remainder going two Liberal and one Labor. South West also has the Nationals leading Family First in a contest for the final seat, the others going three Liberal and two Labor. The Nationals have also won one seat and possibly two in Mining and Pastoral, the second seat coming down to a fight with the Greens, while Labor and the Liberals have won two each.
Labor will thus win between 11 and 13 seats, and the Nationals three to six. Getting a Labor-Nationals Royalties for Regions deal through without the support of the Greens or Family First would require the best case scenario for both parties, which almost certainly won’t happen: the Greens are ahead in all three of their doubtful seats, to add to their certain win in North Metropolitan. The Liberals on the other hand will definitely have a majority of the 36 seats together with the Nationals, appearing almost certain to win 16 seats.
UPDATE: It’s confirmed that Labor is home in North West and Pilbara. The Sunday Times has a very interesting article on the Nationals’ deliberations, suggesting Warren Truss is desperately trying to talk Brendon Grylls out of a possible deal with Labor. Nationals MP Max Trenorden, an opponent of the Labor option, says he is “not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it”.
212 Comments
“…Alan Carpenter retains a lead of 47 per cent to 37 per cent as preferred premier”
Well there is the answer for the NATS there.
William, have you got a scan of the Headline ?
The Westpoll story is on page 6: “More favour Lib-Nat alliance”. Front page is “The secret $675m deal to buy power”, another West story about the lack of a story.
the west has really gone above and beyond with this, their latest stunt to force the libs over the line. I realise all papers have a particular bias, but the west is so refreshing in its total disregard for journalistic and ethical standards in pursuit of right wing hagemony. i consider it more of a loony right fantasy comic than a newspaper. Paul Armstrong is obviously panicked at the thought of a recalcitrant brendan foiling his cunning plans to place barnett on the throne. If grylls does the right thing and supports labor then mr armstrongs tenure at the west must surely be in doubt. Even the uber right board of the west know that 4 years of lost government advertising revenue makes shareholders most upset. Whats next, maybe a newspoll citing that labor politicians are 23% more likely to eat babies than conservative politicians. I anticipate the next paranoid rambling from Armstrong and his excerable paper because its always quite hilarious.
Here’s a question from the south-west end of left field. What does the Fremantle Herald have to say about it all? I believe that’s a Friday paper, and it’s a very good one, but here in sunny Cloverdale I don’t read it so much. Any of you live down there?
Oh, and the West can bite me. Unless they polled country folk, how could they get an opinion on what the Nationals would do?
Nope, try a series of stories about City based projects expected to face the knife to fund those “spoilt cockies”, mainly centred in the Northern & western Suburbs.
Bird, I live there/here and I have it in front of me. Front page story about the Greens’ near-miss in Fremantle. Quotes McGinty saying he would have lost the seat if Buswell had been Liberal leader, as “the Liberal vote woudl have collapsed and the Greens would have won (on Liberal preferences)”. Not a word about the upper house though.
Interesting that, but then again with Fremantle being home to lots of Greenie hippie types, I wouldn’t have been surprised, not that William is one of those
Is there another lecture from Paul Murray on why the Nats are Commies for forming an alliance with Labor ? Or will he on Monday launch a tirade against Nationals Voters and those who preferenced them for creating thi
Hmm, the last bit wasn’t typed in – it should end with “this 3 eyed Monster”
Murray article headlined “Bag of cash and Grylls’ principles look shaky: History revisited as Nationals’ head chameleon looks to be on Viagra or LSD”. Make of that what you will.
It’s an attack article warning Grylls about dealing with Labor etc.
Standard fare – see the Worst of Perth and Paul Nurry
‘blogGod William have we lost our handy Electoral Commission links or do I suffer domestic blindness? Maybe I should answer with, they’ll be back as full functions are returned…
Looks good. I like that I can click on the Banner and get the Pollbludger home.
JEEZUZ… I missed the North West thing on the first skim read. I googled Lex Fullarton, and my spider senses (ably assisted by a few glasses of wine) tell me his preferences will go Green and National. Something to do with solar panels in Canarvon and grumbling about ‘the state doesn’t stop at Gingin’ – the last would mean specifically not the two Perth parties, so I can see the Nat making up that difference, thanks to him – and then the Lib voters following the HTV like obedient little puppy dogs and putting him to the 50%. To win from third place with 22% of the vote… when’s the last time that happened?
If he gets elected tomorrow when they do the preferences, that could really throw a hand grenade into the Nats meeting on who to support – the first National seat north of the Tropic of Capricorn, and the only Nat/ALP seat (all the others are Nat/Lib).
By the how, could the same thing happen in Pilbara? They’ve definitely come second there… looks to me like ALP/Nat with a beltingly reduced margin. Could they sneak another there? Labor look safe in Kimberley though, due to a big Green vote. (I know one who moved to Broome, obviously there’s plenty more up there.)
Isn’t the Upper House situation shaping as a fundamental stumbling block to a Labor/Nats alliance? No point for the Nats in doing the deal if that doesn’t get them what they want, anyway. Or would the minor parties in the Upper House pass the legislation, anyway?
The “angry mob” down at The Worst are definitely worried…pulling all stops to get crazy Col and his crew over the line… Goebbels would be proud.
Does this work? Thanks for your assistance William, but it will take me a while to forgive you for forcing me to visit the Crikey empire. How do I get an avatar?
The Worst uses Westpoll like a weapon, a weapon that is about as accurate as one of those old muskets.
Labor preferenced the Nationals ahead of John Bowler in Kalgoorlie and finished behind the Nats on primary votes. Was there a leakage away from the card, or did the Greens push Labor ahead of the Nats? There are still quite a few votes to be counted in that seat, according to the WAEC.
I think the Nats will go with the Libs; it’s the sensible thing for them to do.
Michael
The deadline for postal votes has expired. There are only 10,787 votes to deal with. Some of those remote electorates have disturbing participation rates.
The more I see of Grylls, the more I don’t like. He appears to be a man willing to compromise his (and the parties) principles by hopping into bed with whomever makes the best offer.
Money talks, eh? Very disappointing, nevertheless.
And, who does this young pup think he is, to tell the Labor mob that he will only deal with Carpenter as leader?
Btw, I voted Independent in this election.
A 24% non-participation rate does raise questions about the integrity of the roll (47% in Kimberley). I imagine many people (like me) had moved away from the electorate and not yet updated their details.
The Greens polled 461 votes in Kalgoorlie and their preferences presumably nudged Labor ahead of the Nats, otherwise it might have been a remarkable result if Labor voters stuck to their card.
If all the primary votes have been counted, Pilbara looks in doubt to me. Family First preferenced the Nationals and the Nats finished ahead of the Liberals.
The WAEC is incorrectly showing a notional two-party split between Labor and Liberal when it should be Labor and Nat.
Labor needs to pick up 439 preference votes from the Greens (744 primary votes) and some spillage from Family First and Liberals to be sure of the seat.
At first glance Pilbara looks a closer call than North West.
Michael! How did you get your avatar?
Adam, sign up at http://en.gravatar.com/ and use the email address you registered with here, and upload a pic.
Thanks. How did you know this? Where is it explained?
I already had one. They work on any gravatar-enabled site as long as you use the same email address. I don’t know if that’s been explained here.
Michael
I presume that WAEC made a best guess before election day on who would be the 2 highest polling candidates (ALP and Lib) and instructed their polling officers to do a preference allocation based on those 2 candidates after they finished the initial primary vote count on election night. It looks like that guess was wrong and the final distribution will be between ALP and Nats.
However I expect the likely high flow of preferences from Greens to ALP and a couple of defecting preferences from FFP and Libs to ALP will sneek ALP over the line.
This sort of thing may have been part of Antony’s analysis problems on election night.
Adam
go to http://www.gravatar.com/ and register your email address and add an avatar
Yes I’m trying but it just comes up black
Let’s try again
Why isn’t this working?
It’s Time (28), I think you’re right but it is very close. I expect the close results in Pilbara, Kalgoorlie and North West will be taken into account when the Nats decide which party to support. They have won those votes mostly from Labor. Grylls’ strategy was to broaden the party’s support beyond the Agricultural zone into Mining and Pastoral and it succeeded.
Ah now it’s working
Adam, it can take 15 minutes or so to show. Go to: http://en.gravatar.com/site/check for confirmation you have uploaded an image correctly.
Adam, it takes a few minutes to start working.
Michael, you know the turf better than I do, but surely Labor preferences in Kalgoorlie will leak quite heavily to Bowler ahead of the Nats. Labor needs 58 per cent of Greens preferences to win Pilbara, and notwithstanding that they ran an open ticket, I’m guessing they will get them. I’d be interested to hear what others think.
I have a lovely shot of Paul Murray circa 1987 for Nurry fans.
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/09/13/weekend-worstoff-22/
#1 Thomas. Carps is still the preferred Premier? He’s the only one who definitely WON’T be leader.
38
are you suggesting he will be grylls deputy.
any recent updates on Kwinana?
William, I haven’t heard any scrutineer reports, but the Labor primary vote was decimated in Kalgoorlie. I expect the people who actually voted Labor were party diehards who are more likely to follow the card. The combined Lib/Nat vote was 44%, so if Nats got ahead of ALP they wouldn’t need too many people to follow the Labor card to win the seat. Labor looks like getting ahead of Nats though on Greens preferences.
It’s academic anyway given John Bowler has aligned himself with the Nats.
Rumpole 39. Yeah, why not.
It would be better for labor to side with The nats than “Boo Hoo” Bowler. Bowler was a disgrace and could never be allowed to be back in labor ranks, particularly with any influence.
Mr Orange, looks like Kwinana will have to wait until tomorrow (WAEC website).
A Labor source writes on North West preferences, sounding confident that a large share of Fullarton’s preferences (including donkey votes) will go straight to Labor, instead of helping the Nationals close the gap on the Liberals. The first bit is a response to my suggestion that “as many as 40 per cent” of Nationals preferences on election night went to Labor:
The Lib – Lab 2PP is about 52-48 and had increased since the election
An Lab – Nat alliance means either the Greens or Liberal have the balance of power in the upper house (best case scenario)
The WA Labor is on the nose, 64% of voter did not vote for them, at least the Liberal + Liz Constable got to 40%
only 2 years ago Labor and Greens introduced 1 vote 1 value and trying to wipe out the National, most of National’s constituency still had not forgiven Labor for doing it
There are too many Labor types in this blog who just does not get it,
National can only get what they want if they support the Liberal, and they also become the balance of power party and can demonstrate what they can do for the bush, this is what they should do if they want to remain relevant
Unlike SA, where 1 National voted against a government on the nose to join the up and coming Labor Party, if the Nat follow the SA example, they will reject the party on the nose of the electorate ie Labor.
WA has spoken 2/3 of WA does not want Labor any party with 35% of vote does not deserve to govern
I have been looking at North West since the day of the election, the postals had not benefit the Nats, i am still wondering whether the Nat can pass the Lib, and then 90-95% of Liberal will elect the National candidate giving a lib – nat (alliance) a 31-28 to 33-26 advantage
My avatar doesn’t seem to be working here. I signed up with my address, and when I click on the avatar it comes up with the avatar page on gravatar. It doesn’t seem to show up here.
Give it a few minutes, Lord D.
sorry dovif
“National can only get what they want if they support the Liberal”
Other way around. election spending saw the libs outspend labor by at least 300-400 million dollars. 200 odd mill for tax cuts plus 120 mill extra for teachers means that the libs have already raided the surplus to is maximum capacity. Treasury has already warned them that any further draw down on the surplus will risk the states triple a credit rating. The libs simply dont have the capacity to fund the nats promises without totally renegging on their promise to teachers and tax cuts. Secondly the federal coalition is demonstratably a death sentence for the nats. The federal by election saw the nats splattered!!. The only nats that have polled well are openly defiant like joyce or those in SA that are in an alliance with labor. Thirdly and this is where the libs get really confused, ideologically the nats are protectionists, not free marketeers like the libs. The two ideologies are diametrically opposed. The nats will find far more in common with labor economic doctrine than the libs. As for percentages of votes, the voters put a pox on both our houses, i admit they gave us a beating, but at the same time they gave the libs fewer seats in parliament than us, hardly a ringing endorsement. An alliance between labor and the nats engaged in an open and transparent discourse with the greens will be a breath of fresh air for WA polotics. Listening to the comments from Grylls, he appears to agree!
#42 – TWOP – Who is the lazy one?
Ignoring The Worst’s blatant bias, won’t Labor still have the largest block in the LA? Do we have any updates on overall numbers? Won’t the Libs+Constable still need more than the Nats four seats to get to 30?
Pilbara looks a closer run for Labor than North West.
Labor can only lose Pilbara if they get less than 57 per cent of Greens preferences, which I would have thought very unlikely. Am I missing something?
William 52
Michael Gorey’s point was that the Pilbara result will be a close win to ALP over Nats rather than an easy 60/40 2PP ALP over Libs win being indicated by the WAEC website.
“LAZY” – we will have to wait and see if Carpenter is leader or not. That is up to the NATS now.
Like I said before the only reasons the NATS wouldn’t go with Labor is fear of voter backlash (if it is a net negative), resistance in the NAT ranks and, being unable to cope with Liberal/media pressure.
If they avoid ministerial positions (as offered by Barnett) then they can stay at arms length and avoid blame.
Other positives for them come from the Labor federal connection and it would be interesting to know what if anything has been suggested there. If they are ‘part’ of the Labor govt then that gives them ability to input, make recommendations and be part of other programs etc.
Thomas Paine
[ If they avoid ministerial positions…. then they can stay at arms length and avoid blame}
The Nats are already talking about 2 cabinet positions where they could be Ministers but would not caucus with the other party (be it Labor or Liberal). This is a similar model to South Australia.
So they already beleive they can BE Ministers and as long as they do not caucus they can still be independent and by definition “stay at arms length”.
An interesting proposition which I think they haven’t thought through properly.
that was meant to be
More ’speculation’ from the West, about Labor’s uranium policy…
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=97613
I think they are kidding themselves if they think they can hold ministries and avoid blame if something goes wrong in their portfolio. Maybe they should ask for assistant ministries.
No they certainly could not avoid blame for actions within their ministries however they certainly could not be held responsible for broader government policy in areas where they have no direct control………….such as Uranium policy.
If they do not caucus then they are not involved in the governments party room deliberations and therefore are essentially “at arms length” when it comes to discussing and instigating policy from the backbench.
They are also not involved (at least directly) in such things as election of the leaders, deputy leaders etc.
An interesting perspective I think but at the end of the day I am with you…..a little bit of self deception is evident.
Are the Nats really after ministries or is that just what Barnet has offered?
From that article:
“But any deal that Mr Grylls does to allow Labor to form a government could prove highly destructive to the National Party with some MPs known to be strongly opposed to any arrangement with Labor because their real heartland would prefer a Liberal government.”
I wonder if that is true now days? Labor has moved to the center and may well not be seen as an ‘unpalatable left’ anymore.
ALSO from that article:
“The Nationals are strong advocates of the Aboriginal cause and regularly pushed issues such as Aboriginal health and education during the past four years.”
Now I think the hold up for the INPEX gas project was that Carpenter gave the Aboriginal land owners right of veto as it was their land that was needed. Not exactly sure about this. Barnett says he can get the project through which suggest taking away the veto.
I think it is very clear that they would want at least one Ministry if not two. Grylls has indicated that he does not want to be Deputy Leader, but I think he would be very interested in being the Minister for Regions and therefore be able to oversee the Raoyalties for Regions scheme.
The South Australian Nat is in this position. She stood on a platform of funding for the Murray River and they made her the Minister for the Murray (or similar) overseeing the funding expenditure.
This is actually quite smart by Labor in SA as if it does not bear fruit (ie. the Murrays problems are not just about money) then they can say that the Nat member was the Minister, go blame her!
Our local member is a Nat and if I am readin git right they are looking for two Ministries with Grylls overseeing Regions.
Any news on what’s happening in Morley? I am really interested in how the preferences will flow in this seat.
But, just like the SA experience for Grylls to be Minister for the Regions would be a bit of a two edged sword for him. Whichever way he jumps will be problems.
I am pretty certain that in our area we could find projects for the whole $M 675, so while it sounds like a lot of mullah it will not go far. Therefore by definition there will be some very dissapointed regional areas waiting to have their say at the next election (which I think will be in the next 12 months after the “Grylls Plan” falls apart).
It is interesting to note that Brendon Grylls cites South Australian National MP Carlene Maywald as a role model for balance of power politics,so there might be some hope ?
Natalie, the scrutineers have been doing their own Labor-versus-Liberal preference tally in Morley, and both sides agree the Liberals are about 400 votes in front.
PoM
I think you may be on to something. The Nats are certainly quoting her experience widely.
do the CDP still have a chance of a seat in the upper house
Karlene Maywald is in WA to address the Nats. I wonder if this means anything?
Thanks William. Hope the thesis is going well. Cheers, Natalie
Jeez is Morley still a chance for Labor? I though the Whitby tilt had died in the arse last week. In that case I am looking at a Reece Whitby led labor opposition.
Goanna, the religious parties are unlikely to win the seats I predicted for them because they’ve been squeezed out by the Nationals’ strong performance, However, there’s a vague possibility they might still win in Agricultural if the Liberals lose ground in late counting. The CDP could then finish ahead of their third candidate and ride home on Liberal, Nationals and Family First preferences. That can’t happen for Family First because the Liberals have the second National behind CDP but ahead of Family First, so if the CDP gets excluded first the seat will go to the Nationals. In South West the CDP was strongly outpolled by Family First, presumably due to Dan Sullivan’s personal vote – but Sullivan is likely to be excluded before the second National, whose preferences will deliver the last seat to Liberal number three Barry House. I had calculated that the CDP might win a third conservative seat in East Metropolitan if the swing to the Liberals was just the right size, but it was actually too big so the Liberals win the third seat instead.
Natalie
“Posted Saturday, September 13, 2008 at 4:19 pm | Permalink
Any news on what’s happening in Morley? I am really interested in how the preferences will flow in this seat.”
Natalie , am not sure at what stage William’s 400 Liberal lead is at for Morley , but following would not greatly change my figures on pref flows At 90% count it seems Labor is only getting approx 60% to 65% of Greens prefs & 40% to under 45% of D’orazio’s prefs
So this Labor seat on those pref flows is virtually lost , solely because of poor Greens & poor D’orazio prefs
Well, Morley is a traditional Labor seat. So, D’Orazio has a personal following, but most of his followers are trad. Labor voters, who might not follow his how to vote card. The catch is that many of his followers are also elderly and Italian, so they could be less inclined to order their own preferences. It’s also interesting that the informal vote count is 6.6%.
Anyway, that’s why I am interested in the 2PP count.
Would FF and CDP have been better off giving their second preference to the Liberals instead of preferencing each other? Given that the Libs seem to be their 3rd preference.
The problem with Morley is that the WAEC completely messed up the count on the night, doing the notional 2PP between Labor and D’Orazio rather than the Libs.
Whilst the count was presumably redone – I’m guessing scrutineers were not present, and it was very late in the night, so who knows what errors will be found tomorrow.
A South Australian Nationals M-P, who’s a minister in the Labor government, is in Perth as the WA Nationals meet to decide which major party they will support to form government.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/13/2363692.htm?section=justin
TP
She will give them a few clues but don’t expect the Nat’s to announce their decision until the WAEC announces who won what! It may be that Labor may have enough seats to try to form a Government in which case it would be silly if the Nats had already announced they will fall in with the Libs….and vice versa.
It will, at the end of the day, be up to Carpenter whether he tries to form Government with or without the Nats, and he will only try without them dependant on the number of seats he ultimately wins in his own right (obviously).
Given the track record of the WAEC I would presume that they WILL NOT make an announcement tomorrow on all seats in doubt and therefore the Nats cannot make their announcement tomorrow either without taking a political risk – not in their makeup I’m afraid.
…just a thought…
Prepare for more Lib supporter hysteria. Maywald addressing the WA Nats while they decide who to support will have GP et al in a real sweat. The unthinkable is a real possibility.
But if by some chance the Nats do announce they will fall in behind the Libs, watch Carpenter try to form a Government without them, giving the independants back the balance of power..and won’t they love that! This presupposes Labor win 27 seats.
I think it’s past the point where there is any alternative to the Nationals.
And this is a whole day and neither the gravatar nor wordpress identity comes up.
Not sure if anyone is interested in the actual results anymore, but my latest news from WA is 100 Lib votes in Forrestfield have been found in ALP pile = 200 vote turnaround, putting Libs in front.
Albany still in play.
Libs safe in Riverton and Wanneroo.
NW still in play.
At least I don’t have to read The West Australian here. Can imagine the hyperbole they will come out with to sooth their seething hatred of non-Liberal.
The problem The Worst might now have is, having shown (I gather) a obvious bias against Labor they will be type-cast as a strong Liberal paper and their stories filtered accordingly. When your bias is obvious your message is lost.
Here is a copy of the 2004 Agreement:
http://www.sa.nationals.org.au/PDF/agreement04.pdf
Basically allows the Hon Maywald to be a Cabinet Minister, while still disagreeing with the Government.
Small history: 2002, ALP was one seat short of a Majority. Appointed Peter Lewis speaker (Independent) and formed Government. In Nov 2002, appointed Hon Rory McEwen a minister, to sure up support.
His agreement:
http://www.seo.sa.gov.au/apps/uploadedFiles/news/306/Exhibit_14.pdf
Then in 2004, appointed Kaylene as a Minister as well.
Kris Hanna resigned in Feb 06 and joined the Greens and Peter Lewis was disposed of as speaker, thus Labor still had just enough to guarantee supply with the two Independent ministers. (Though I very much doubt he would have voted against the ALP on a vote of confidence.)
It worked quiet well and Kaylene and Rory were both re-elected in 2006 as Independent’s and re-appointed as Ministers.
And interstingly, in 2006, when Maywald was re-appointed to the Cabinet, she was not required for the ‘numbers’. They just thought she was a good Minister and I suppose had got used to having her around!
Why can’t there be the Maywald agreement but with the Liberal Party??? As a conservative who wanted the corrupt and hated Carpenter Government gone I cannot believe the NP would jump into bed with those left-wingers. They wanted to destroy you via ‘electoral reform’ remember??? Grylls and every National Party MP is going to join Carpenter on Australia’s most hated list. You reap what you sow. We have long, long memories.
Good work William… you have blog UP a notch!!
This is like death by a thousand cuts…
Arrgh…not my real name!
And heres my gravitar!
Elf Rules
Maywald has been a bit of a disaster in SA regarding Water. Media Mike had had to resort to TV ads to band-aid over the Water problems. But in fairness to him, he has stuck with her despite endless calls for her to be sacked (I think the fault is his BTW). But it’s VERY CLEAR to the SA public that Rann is going to lose votes over Water because it’s his Government. No-one is thinking or saying that because Maywald is a National that it in any way helps Labor-Rann to be absolved or responsibility.
sunday times reports liberals want to put deidre wilmott into cabinet, despite her not being an MP
unconventional but legally sound apparently
I’d be guessing someone will be asked to resign from their safe seat or someone from the upper house will go and thus creating a vacancy, and she will be parachuted into place.
Don’t you love the Libs not playing by the rules
If they could have done that before, they would have done it. Now someone has just gotten elected, you think they are just going to stand aside?
BTW labor party stooges like yourself should realize the irony of saying people don’t play by the rules.
The Federal Constitution enables non parliamentary members to be Ministers for up to three months before joining the Parliament. Not sure about the states.
There is a Catholic priest who’s effectively a Cabinet minister in South Australia, I believe, just to continue the Rann Government’s exceptions to the rules.
I have it on very good authority that Arnie Vinnick @ 83 is mistaken, and that the situation in Forrestfield is much as it was before.
alp have secured pilbara and north west
No Nationals rabbits out of the hat in North West or Pilbara. They didn’t come second in the former, Labor winning 6103-5384 (margin 3.13 per cent). Peter Kennedy on ABC says Pilbara “retained” by Labor.
seesm libs promised nats 5 ministries, alp promised 6 !
0o
we are d00med no matter what!
Note that according to Labor have earmarked those ministries as those with a rural and regional focus, such as Agriculture etc.
still frank, any semblance of traditional alp ideology has been scraped
A small price to pay to piss off the Libs
Re Wilmott guess who’s providing the advice -ANOTHER bloody Van Onsolen- Peter’s Wife I’m assuming.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24341094-5017005,00.html
Ainslie is indeed Mrs Peter.
Frank,
edith cowan former channellor was hendy cowan and pro-vice channelcor or something was the fromer state lib president whatsher name.
they would have helped secure the van onsolens im guessing
hey im a bit drunk and bitchy
If I was married to Jiang Qing I’d be drunk and bitchy too.
Hendy was the Chair of Access 31 Board, and we all know what happened there
And I think the Pro Vice was one Millicent Poole.
milly was vice chancellor
I’m waiting for little Bubby Van Onselen to offer some sort of advice favouring the conservatives from her High Chair at any moment now
I’m imagining her first words will ve “Mummy”, Daddy”, “Go Colin Barnett” 
Ahh, so it must have been Danielle Blaine then ?
Brendan Grylls is like a lost soul who needs guidance. He should be reading the news stories from The West Australian to make a decision not listening to Labor Party stooges. The West Australian is showing a more balanced view of who to form government with. Also, Colin Barnett contested two elections as leader, so he deserves it more. If he joins Labor, Grylls will be tied to a rope at the next National Party convention and he will be punched in the jaw by everyone their. Grylls better make the right decision tomorrow or he will pay big time.
Karlene Maywald should be sacked!
North West definitely in Labor hands?
Definitely.
Is Honest John for real? I thought this new site had a moderation policy.
Is Pilbara definitely ALP or is the ABC just recycling numbers? I never doubted North West.
seems grylls is (or was) very set on a Labor alliance
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24341298-948,00.html
It seems so, and if they do revert to the Libs, Grylls either will be fighting with the libs every second day, or he will quit. It WILL be a very unstable partnership between a very modern and forward thinking National Leader and a bunch of old fossils like The Libs.
Re 119, fascinating. Trenorden’s comments were intriguing and suggest consensus was reached, despite disagreement among the MPs.
Well, it has been obvious for most of the week that Brendon Grylls wants to work with Alan Carpenter. Not necessarily the Labor Party, but he and Alan seem to have a much stronger rapport than he and Colin, and just maybe Alan’s “above the fray” approach to ALP politics has saved his bacon. Reading between the lines of Max Trenorden’s remarks it seems like Grylls may have bent the party, rather than the other way around.
Aside from that, I think Grylls also wants to see whether his idea of where the National Party should go in the future can actually work in practice – and contrary to the hysteria of the literati, maintaining the current government is the best method. The situation is ideal, because if things turn nasty for Labor at some point, the Nats can justifiably switch to the Liberals without seeming opportunistic (assuming the Libs can get a clear policy framework and stop squabbling) and at the same time assure disillusioned ALP votes in the Mining & Pastoral seats that they’re a viable option if there is another election.
Labor just need to hold onto Albany and Forrestfield, because if Roger Cook gets up in Kwinana that’s 28 seats and a clear plurality.
Peter Kennedy said Pilbara was settled, and I think we can believe him. I do keep an eye on Honest John, but I have no problem with people forcefully presenting a partisan viewpoint, and that’s all he’s doing at the moment as far as I’m concerned.
That last sentence indicates that it looks like an Alliance with Labor, in particular the last line.
I just CAN’T see the Nats allying with Labor, even though I’m generally a Labor supporter. Labor’s on the nose, as the election results show, and the Nats would lose their heartland supporters who hate Labor.
My vampire Lord avatar works now!!!
Re 123: Suggesting someone be hanged and assaulted is okay here?
Re 122 and 124: It looks like a Labor deal to me as well. That’s certainly my take on Grylls’ personal position. The body language from his meetings with Carps and Barnett suggested the same.
Michael: No, but that isn’t what’s happened. All he’s done is employ a metaphor to argue that a Grylls-Carpenter deal will not go down well with the party.
If a government of whichever complexion formed with Nats support suffered a loss of confidence in the House because the Nats had subsequently withdrawn their support, would a new election be called?
I’m thinking about a Labor-National alliance the same way I think of a Fremantle Dockers win when they’re five goals up at three quarter time. I’d like it, and it’s possible that it may happen, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
(Is it any surprise that I used to vote for the Dockers of the political scene, the Democrats?
)
SNIP: Ugly, stupid comment deleted.
You’re not making this easy for me, HJ.
It’s Time, I have no doubt that the Governor would call on the leader of the other major party to try and form a Government first – if that failed (ie. the Nats opt for an early poll), then there would be a dissolution of the Legislative Assembly.
I’m fairly certain that the Legislative Council terms are fixed to go from 22 May 2009 to 21 May 2013, and there can’t be an upper house election until at least June 2012.
If the Nats were going with the Libs I don’t think there would be too much argument within the party. That argument would only take place if they were about to make a “courageous” decision, IMHO. Could be wrong.
FWIW William, I am delighted with this harder line approach you’re taking with posters. Hopefully we will all clean up our act and concentrate on the issues at hand.
Talkon
After a hypothetical early election, would the resultant winner serve out the balance of the fixed term of the previous government or does the or does the clock reset for a new 4 year term? Would the Legislative Council also go to election or are their election times set independently of LA elections?
“A courageous decision, minister.”
“Yes…. oh my god, it it?”
I love that scene.
How fixed is fixed? In WA we’re relatively placid, but federally terms’ve gotten unfixed (eg: 1984 election, only a year after the last one). If there’s a new election in, say, 2010, it might stuff up the next one.
Oh, and I forgot to mention that the early election actually gives the Nats another cause to contemplate an alliance with Labor – the upper house.
Although the new numbers will be dicey, if Wendy Duncan votes with Labor it gives them back the 16 seats they had in 2005…and although it has occurred, I can’t imagine a Greens-Shelley Archer-Liberal pact to defeat ALP-Nat legislation holding together with any certainty.
Thus, if things do get rough by next May, the Nats would have yet another opt-out clause.
Re 135: I’m posting here because I expect abusive stupid comments to be moderated. I expect sites like this are manipulated by political machines and abused by nutters. William, you can check IP addresses for abuse and keep people on track.
If Labor and Nats agree a deal, what will occur with:
Uranium mining,
Daylight saving,
GM crops.
daylight saving is doomed
Well that smells a bit like an ALP/Nat alliance.
Getting nervous Billbowe?
http://jas.familyfun.go.com/recipefinder/display?id=50164
No, but my hat might be.
Gods, but i hope Grylls does a deal with the ALP. There is a self indulgent, politics as a blood sport aspect to this hope. The look on Colin Barnets face would be good, the look on Julie Bishops pricless!
But more than that, it would really set a as much of a new direction for poilitics in W.A. as we are likely to get for a long time. The Libs are a rabble who at the moment couldnt govern their way out of a soggy paper bag. If Barnet becomes premier, the knives will be out for him within weeks, and the Libs in W.A. have demostrated real form over the last few years of on undermining anyone in their top job seeminly just because its their nature as a party.
The ALP needed and got a good kick up the backside this election, but are probably better able to govern at the moment. Not that that is much of a complement given the quality of the opposition over here! Greens and Nats as real alternatives for a change?? Would go down well with a lot of people over here.
And wouldnt the Federal implictions of this be just SO MUCH FUN!!!!!!!
So, the Nats have ONE chance to prove they are more than a poor copy of the Liberal party and that is now. Hope they take it.
You mean like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu-0SYxDIbY
For the Nats to have made up their minds one way or the other they must have a good idea of the results in the close seats.
Anyone know how to edit spelling mistakes on this blog??
Colin Barnett has been behaving like presumptive Premier for a week, it’d be hilarious to see the look on his face if the Nats do go with the ALP.
I doubt the Nationals would be able to cancel daylight saving this summer. They would love to, but the time frame to do it would be VERY limited. Both houses would have to ammend the legislation. I’m guessing that parliament wont resume till mid October, and daylight saving would start 2 weeks later, I can’t see how they could rush it through parliament that quickly. The initial bill took 4 weeks from the first reading to being signed by the governer, and we know how quickly that was rushed.
The Nationals could cancel the referendum next year, but they would be stupid to do that, knowing if there is no referendum, then there could be easily be another trial in the next term of government again.
And, assuming Labor ends up with more seats than the Liberals, the Nationals at least have to negotiate with them.
The West online is suggesting the Nats and ALP have reached an agreement on uranium mining:
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=97613
William – Nationals MP Max Trenorden, an opponent of the Labor option, says he is “not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it”.
That’s a dead set giveaway isn’t it?
I trust Grylls will be happy with just four more years in politics. Maybe he could be a staffer for Labor when he finishes?
It is hard to voluntarily step back from government but that is the only sane option for Labor. A deal with the Nats has no chance of surviving full term, comparisons to what has happened in South Aust. aren’t really that relevant. Dealing with one person is easy compared to dealing with 4, and while Brendan may be comfortable with dealing with labor for how long will his comrades feel that way? If Carpenter is dealing from a position of strategic advantage he will offer plenty forcing the Libs to match it and then sit back and watch the mess unfold.
Yep, sure is, I expect quite a few disgruntled nats to jump ship to The Libs, especially in the Lay Party if that is the case or there will be a split and a new party formed.
“Yep, sure is, I expect quite a few disgruntled nats to jump ship to The Libs, especially in the Lay Party if that is the case or there will be a split and a new party formed.”
Do you mean National MP’s Frank or rank and file party members?
Frank – it hasn’t happened yet. If it was that obvious he would just announce it. I would say he is waiting to see what will happen re number of seats. I would say what they have agreed to is a labor alliance except in the circumstance where labor need them AND one or two independants in which case the Nats will not be holding the balance of power (or at least they AND the Inds will be).
In this scenario they would be better going with the Libs and the Libs Inds as this would be far more reliable.
Gary, use [ ] around text and this will indent like so….
Thanks Elf.
welcome
While Truss is trying to talk Grylls out of it probably Joyce is on the other line trying to talk him into it.
Possibly Both, but I’m guessing Rank & File members first and foremost, and possibly one of the Upper House members.
So how many state/territory elections in a row without a Liberal win would this be?
I thought it was a dead giveaway Karleen Maywald was in Perth today, advising the WA Nats. She’s got a good working relationship with the Rann govt – you do the maths.
Yes, the Trenorden comment is the article’s real eye-catcher.
G’day Dario – it’s Landslide from the other place.
In answer to your question: the last state election the Liberals won was in the late 1990s?
And I’d argue that today’s N.S.W council elections haven’t been a great result for the Libs either(although admittedly Labor has done badly too)
If Grylls can get everything he wants out of Carpenter and delivers I don’t see why the National Party’s constituents would complain to be honest.
And perhaps Barnett blew it by lecturing to the Nationals that they SHOULD unite with the Liberals, being arrogant enough to assume it would happen?
Can someone enlighten me to the latest seat count. How many are still in doubt??
Intrigued but secretly pleased by prospect of ALP-Nats deal.
Andrew, the ABC news tonight in Sydney was saying Labor would end up with 27 seats out of a parliament of 59 – not sure how accurate that is?
Yeah I was surprised that there wasn’t the total bloodbath I had been expecting. Bad… but not quite.
Labor wins by 98 votes in Forrestfield.
Well, it seems that only Albany, Forrestfield and Riverton remain in doubt – together with Kwinana, which seems to have been given to Labor by many media outlets in the last 36 hours. Nine News here in Perth was also giving Alfred Cove to the Liberals tonight.
I’m surprised that only North West seems to have been definitively given so far. If that’s because of the relatively tiny number of electors, expect Albany to be next off the blocks.
I wonder if Woolards pledge to support a Barnett Liberal Govt alienated her personal support base, and probably thought if we wanted a LIberal Govt, it’s better to vote for the real deal.
How many seats would the Libs have?
Liberal by 300 votes in Wanneroo.
An Electorate once filled with Market Gardens is now an Electorate of McMansions, especially in the suburbs of Tapping.
Labor at worst has 26 seats?
Add on Kwinana and it’s 27?
Still waiting for Albany and Riverton. Alfred Cove, Morley, Nedlands, Kwinana and Collie-Preston to be conducted tomorrow.
While thew Libs have 24- 25 if Alfred Cove is in the mix.
And William, congratulations on the new site, it’s great!
If the NATS do deal with the ALP then we are going to have to work out what it means nationally. The first thing we will hear is an assurance from Truss on the coalition.
Followed by the opposite from Barnaby? Or do you think they’ve put him back in his box.
It also puts a lot of pressure on the Liberal leadership to come. If Turnbull does take over and doesn’t produce any significant gains the NATS are going to get a bit nervous and think they also need to differentiate themselves a bit more. The might start to act a little more independently on some issues.
So it will be fascinating if the dynamics to get a shake up.
If the Nats would start voting with Labor in the Senate on some issues, that’d help Rudd get some of his bills passed.
Trenorden’s comments do seem to be a giveaway. It wouldnt be “historic” if it was a Libs-Nat deal. And wouldnt the libs need the nats and independents to govern? surely the nats could argue that a lab-nat alliance is a more stable alternative
One Nat senator said if Labor made an amendment to the luxury car tax, he’d cross the floor.
Where did Trenorden say these comments? I couldn’t find the article.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24341298-948,00.html
Cheers.
What sort of amendment though? To exempt primary producers? ffs they get enough breaks these days don’t they?
He said the following.
The Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals at the second last count in North West: if they got there they’d have won. Full count here.
Yeah it was something like that, but it shows they’re willing to negotiate and not oppose for the sake of it like the Libs. The Nats are a bunch of socially conservative socialists, they got nothing against a tax!
bloody heck
true
Liberal by 64 votes in Riverton.
Are they still counting?
Yes, Albany still to come this evening.
so far it is running to script..well as was thought anyway
This is a preference distribution being done now, by the way. The primary votes had all been counted.
Oh right, WA is a few hours behind as well.
Lordy – I’d reckon the Libs would be WETTING themselves at the prospect that the Nats might go with Labor – and worse, given the Nationals record as a broadly agrarian socialist party – that it MIGHT work!! They’d have up to four years to deliver enough results to swing some of the Nat constituents. And in the context of Labor alliances, it was interesting to be referred to Grylls maiden speech, the first half of which could have come from an ALP platform – compassionate angles on refugees, gay rights and indigenous welfare.
ALP win albany 9877 to 9781
The only result that was significantly out from the scrutineers’ estimates. Presumably a misplaced bundle of Labor votes showed up.
well that and green prefences went very very strongly to alp
The scrutineers were informally tallying those as the primary votes were counted. Either they miscounted (quite possible – the Labor and Liberal tallies were a fair bit different) or something showed up.
so thats the counting for the night?
So where does that put the lower house tally now?
alp 27, lib 24 nat 4 ind 2 then whatever happens in alfred cove and kwinana
Labor 27; Liberal 24; Nationals 4; Liz Constable; John Bowler; Undecided 2. The undecided are Alfred Cove, between Liberal and independent Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, between Labor and independent Carol Adams. So a Liberal minority government would need to be backed by two independents, remembering that one is almost-Liberal Liz Constable and another has hitched his vote to the Nationals.
New thread.