UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
524 Comments
Hmmm…
So, tell me it isn’t true… we are going to have a National Socialist government?
Could this be another vote of no confidence in the Liberal Party? If it goes ahead it will be thanks to the legacy of the rodent.
The National Party leadership are proving to be no more than a Liberal Party coat tails.
If the Nats do back Labor and it works out, how do the Libs ever regain Govt. in WA?
I recall when Labor had an alliance with the Greens in Tasmania. Michael Field and Labor found that experience so bad that they refused to do it a second time – giving up government because the Greens were an unreliable rabble. It doesn’t matter which way the Nats go – the result will be the same here for either major party – an alliance with an unstable and divided rabble, driven more by the grossly skewed numbers in the Council. Grylls has shown his hand – its all about the money at the moment, but once that is in the kick, the policy is going to be an almighty mess.
#1 – The Nats have always been a socialist party taking, expecting and demanding handouts from the Govt
Nat-Lib alliance not set in stone: Joyce
http://news.smh.com.au/national/natlib-alliance-not-set-in-stone-joyce-20080914-4g2l.html
You would imagine The Nationals would have more to lose by supporting Labor than the Liberal Party. If they support Labor they run the risk of losing a lot of support at the next election as people realise they need to vote Liberal to get rid of Labor.
On the other hand, if they side with the Liberals they run the very real risk of what’s happened at a Federal level… being seen as the Liberal Party’s doormat and as a very ineffective party.
Viewed in this light, perhaps a way to handle the issue would be to side with Labor but having the power to veto on policy matters that are socially too progressive for their country support base.
Still, the most likely outcome will be with The Nationals supporting a Liberal Government.
I should add that it’s still looking like it will be a very exciting few years of WA politics and this decision will be a large part of that. I suspect should Labor scrape back in they’ll claw back a few seats at the next election to make a more comfortable Government… but who knows.
It’s also interesting wondering on the leadership of both parties after the election should their party lose. You’d assume the Libs would stick with Colin Barnett for at least a while, but it would be tempting for leadership aspirants to push for the leadership given they will see Government as so close to reach.
I’d suspect Mr Carpenter will leave very quickly should Labor lose…
I believe schnitzel is entirely right. The South Australian experience is less relevant, ie dealling with an individual rather than a collective rabble.
I think you need to look beyond SA and focus more on what happened in Tas. Of course there is no chance of Carpenter knocking back a deal with nats if its on offer but that would be the sane and strategic place to go.
surely given the ever decreasing influence and power state governments have, an alliance between the nats and labor isnt going to send the sky crashing down. If anything having to debate ideas and present plausible arguements for programs policy and expenditure can only improve the decision making process. A broader more robust political process in which outcomes must be argued and negotiated has got to be better than what we have now. Throw inthe fact that in the upper house greens support may be required and we may start to see an unpredictable and exciting real democracy in power. One things for sure regardless of which way the nats swing, the days of an all powerful administrative government are coming to an end. More power to the people of WA for whats bound to be an exciting and fascinating next 4 years.
Question: is there any chance Morley could be a surprise?
Will all of D’Orazio’s preferences necessarily go to the Liberals?
Morley is finished. All over, red rover.
isnt any deal dependent on what the upperhouse looks like? if you cant push your agenda through the upperhouse your cactus.
Labor/National. I’ll believe it when I see it.
LOL @ Tom. That’s right, John Howard – a man retired for 10 months now – is responsible for the libs being on shaky ground in a WA election. Good grief, not even Crikey has tried to spin that one.
ruwake – If the Nats go with Labor here and it works out, the Liberal Party is almost certainly going to field a candidate in every National seat next election with the message ‘a vote for the Nats is a vote for Labor.’ By then, the Labor government will be going for its fourth consecutive term in office, and it’s likely every indicator will be pointing to an Opposition victory, especially if term three heads in the same direction as the previous two (and let’s be honest, does anyone seriously think a Labor minority government is going to get more done then the majority government did?)
The Nats might hold on to a couple of seats, but you’d suspect there’d be enough conservative and cranky voters switching to Liberal in disgust to ensure they lose at least some votes. I don’t think there’d be any going back from it, they’d have to make the switch completely to an ‘alternative right wing minor party’ and hope enough people are interested in that for them to survive.
(BTW, I’m going to pick up a neat $45 if the Nats go with the Libs from a $10 bet, so I may have a tinge of bias here)
Yes, Max. Grylls may go for short term gain (and fame?) but he will end up with long term irrelevance for his party.
We do need to remind ourselves that strange alliances like this are quite common in European politics, where PR elections throw up all kinds of results. It’s our single-seat electoral system that makes them unusual in Australia. In Germany for example we have red-green, red-black and even black-green coalitions. In Belgium and the Netherlands, left and right parties are frequently in coalition in various combinations. There is usually a written agreement which specifies which policies will be enacted and which won’t.
sounds very colourful adam
i cant believe people still see any future for the nats with the libs. As previously stated when it comes to economics the two are at opposite ends of the spectrum. In terms of social issues the nats are generally more conservative, however both labor and libs have moved to the centre ground on nearly all issues. Labors slighty softer stand on free market economics is more in line with the nats requests. Federally the nats are going the same way as the democrats. Thier survival depends on presenting a different face from the city libs and more importantly delivering money and services to the bush. The question people need to ask is whether a nats voter in rural wa is prepared to oppose labors ever so slightly more progressive social agenda at the expense of rural protectionism and services.
‘I hope that they bargain the best deal and end up with an arrangement with the Liberal Party, but I wouldn’t put all my money on that horse.’ – Barnaby Joyce.
will treasury be scotch guarding all their seats? I reckon.
grylls to have a press conference at around 11:30am perth time
Adam
do you support PR for Australian federal elections?
Things are certainly starting to sound interesting. Has anyone seen anything of ESJ since we switched to this new site. I’d love to get his take on this.
By the way William, I’ve heard that hats don’t taste too bad with tomato sauce.
Do we know if the Grills press conference will be on Sky?
Who in their right mind doesn’t. Well the major parties, obviously. Since they’re the only losers.
hat is a dish best served cold
Mary: Not for lower houses, no. I like stable one-party or coalition governments, not alphabet soup.
^ What’d I say.
Perhaps Oz would rather live in Belgium, where there was no government at all for eight months after the last election because of the unworkable menagerie thrown up by PR.
Adam,
Agree with you. Most PR advocates are from Parties or organsations that have an over enlarged opinion of their opinions. They see nothing wrong with a 15% rump exercising control over the other 85% as long as it is their rump that is in control.
The Australian voters have tended to eschew such nonsense and tend to prefer stable Governments rather than a pot porri of coalitionists.
There’s an easy way to fix this. Remove the executive from the legislature.
That way you could have all the PR you want, and it would have the added benefit of making strict party discipline pointless.
If there was a no single party majority situation in Tasmania then a Labor-Green coalition would work better than it did last time because the Greens would be likely to demand one or two cabinet positions or do a clear only confidence and supply assured everything else on merit deal.
Adam would you support two party preferred party list proportional representation (where voters get a preferential choice of party lists and the seat distribution is based on the TPP) for lower houses?
There is no way in the world in space Tas Labor will go into coalition of any kind with the Greens ever again in any arrangement whatsoever.
Tom, um… how can you have TPP and PR together? PR will by definition render TPP meaningless.
The Nationals could legitimately argue a case that claims to support the will of the people, for either party: the Liberals on the basis that they achieved the highest primary vote, and the ALP on the basis that they achieved the highest number of seats.
I suspect, Grylls wanted an alliance with Happy Carps, but after most of his caucus backed the Libs i think its fair to assume he may have been successful in getting a deal with the ALP.
However i hold out hope that the Nats would still back us their traditional partners.
Good news in Alfred Cove, too bad about Albany.
I wouldnt have thought Truss would have weighed into the debate if Grylls wasnt dead set on Labor. Also if he wanted the Libs why did he bring out the SA Nat traitor over who is supposedly his Hero.
I fear after a 6% and the loss of 10 seats and with the CCC and Veranus Island Reports due out later on that the good people of WA may be stuck with an incompetent and corrupt Government unwanted by the majority of voters for another possibly 4 years.
Bloody bumpkins!
Schnitzel @5
Now, now, nice mythology for Laborites who resent that The Greens were not their pet votes. I think the quote below is how most people would see it:
“The initial break in the relationship came in October 1990 when Labor raised the woodchip export quota above the level of 2.889 million tonnes per year, thus breaching a key Accord agreement. Even so, the Greens only moved no-confidence in the government towards the end of 1991; and again over its forest policy.”
I think Tasmanian Greens would see the Labor Party were the unreliable rabble, and that they even went beyond a breach in the accord to provide stability. I suspect that the refusal was mutual. I get the impression that the Tasmanian Labor party is a bit like the WA Liberal Party: confused that its inevitable right to rule could be diminished by an independent minor party.
To both, they can again, ’suffer in their jocks’ (say in either a Bob Brown or Brendan Grylls voice), for all I care.
One example where the issue is really about ethnic rivalries rather than any inherent flaws in the electoral system is not enough to claim the system is broken.
Presidential systems mean that there is if a party gets the executive with minority first preference support with the support of another party or other parties then those other parties those parties have no means of holding the governing party to account (a similar problem exists with my above suggestion of TPP list PR). Chile would have been less likely to have a coup in 1973 if it had had a parliamentary system.
If you wanted to introduce responsible government in America without interfering significantly with congress then you could reform the electoral collage from a historical anomaly to a lower house style president and cabinet appointing and dismissing body (with the appointees coming from the Electoral Collage). With at least annual sessions paid members and proportional representation electing it from each state and the District of Colombia. With the appointments being for an indefinite time or a period that was longer that the for year term of the electoral collage term and could be dismissed by a simple vote.
I would say, non complusory and first past the post would be the simplist and most democratic choice of voting system. The reason Belgium and other European countries cannot have stable governance is because they have voting systems that allow many minor parties to gain representation and thus you have to wait 8 months for a government or have 2 parties who hate each other join together CDU/CSU and SPD in Germany.
I agree Oz. Equally in some countries with major regional differences (eg. African tribal areas) single member electorates provide a number of small medium parties in unstable coalitions, just like Belgium with its regioanlised PR system.
The basis of selecting the electoral system should be what best represents the will of the people. Usually a combination of accidents of history and political expediency are how they are developed.
For most circumstances a variant of PR is the way to go. That of course depends on the purpose of the body being elected. Executive or Legislature or Review or whatever.
Did you mean Electoral College or were making a joke about that anachronistic system?
Adam the system I was asking if you might support is having a lower house with only two parties elected to it with the count conducted like a single member electorate count but instead of having one member elected all the seats are apportioned by a list system apportioning method on the of the two list preferred vote. (I favour a Tasmania style system not this one I am asking you whether you might support).
So back to WA…
Press conference in half an hour, yes? Being streamed anywhere?
Glen S @ 37: what good news in Alfred Cove?
What Glen means is that non-compulsory and non-preferential voting is the system that would most benefit the Liberal Party, and he is right, which is why it isn’t going to happen.
From all reports it is still close.
I was making a serious suggestion for reforming the American system that is more likely to get up than a parliamentary system (direct election most likely to get up though) but a parliamentary system would be better.
It wouldnt necessarily Adam, the Labor Party in the UK won 3 terms with 1st past the post and the left generally wins in Canada with the same system.
It would only be useful in the lower house to ensure stable government. Even so minor parties could still win seats after all the NDP in Canada has 30 seats and the Liberal Dems win around 60 seats each time around.
Agree Adam
I expect that without the at least nominal legitimacy of compulsory voting (and referenda) , to have a check on representative government going astray, Glen supports the right to bear arms? Yee-ha! Ka-pow. The Liberal Party could rename itself the Institutional Party and have an election once each decade.
Is anyone going to make a prediction about what’s going to happen?
Life will go on.
Well I think everyone thinks it’s Labor, going by what came out of that meeting.
If the national party keeps going as it has been it will cease to exist. As a party willing to form a government with either side it may have a future. But I’m willing to bet they will go for the Liberals and a slow and steady decline.
from whats ive been reading etc, it seems Labor, but i will never believe it until i see it
Tom at 40
I was referring to your spelling. Collage instead of College. The meaning is nicely different.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)
as opposed to that
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collage
20 minutes and you might be seeing it.
If Carpenter does indeed succeed in forming a government, how many weeks will it be until the next Liberal leadership change?
If it is Labor, i should hope Colin stands Liberals in every single Nat held seat in the next election.
Do they make hats out of chocolate?
I thought the Nats said they would wait until there were LC results before deciding who to bring in as a junior partner?
colin will probably retire immediately (if nats go with labor), no point him hanging around.
i really cant see a leadership contender, except for porter, though thats probably a bit too soon, thomas is gone, buswell maybe.. but are they that stupid?
Well, it will cause the Federal Nationals to commit mass suicide.
So to answer your question; however long it takes the cleaners to wash the blood from the floor at parliament house.
Man if the Fed Nats grow a pair and pull out of coalition the Libs are rooted.
ruawake
LOL!
That’s right. Someone, and I’m not naming names here, did make a pledge to eat his hat if we got a Labor-Nat Government in WA.
If they join the ALP. The Federal Libs ought to cast adrift the Federal Nats completely.
It’s one thing to not be in Coalition with us, its another to deny us Government.
As far as im concerned if the WA Nats back the ALP, the Federal Nats ought to be given 2 options, become Liberal MPs or prepare to be challenged at every single election.
Maybe there will be a Government of State Unity. Brendan Grylls as Premier with the pick of the best from Labor, Liberal, Greens and Independents in the ministries.
Like the first parliament in the new South Africa.
They’d be nice to each other and try to impress the general public at the same time. They all know they might need each other next time.
If that happened, I would be seeking chocolate hats.
Will we see a re-run of the Julie Bishop / Colin Barnett seat-and-job-swap scenario?
It was the people of WA who denied the Liberals government.
Or better yet, give our preferences to popular independents if we cant win their seats outright in a fed election. They would be down to a couple of MPs by the end of that.
Grylls and the Nats nationally will be enemy No 1 of the Liberal Party of Australia.
They also denied the ALP too Oz. They had a 6% swing against them too!
*Chortle* It’ll be like Joh-for-Canberra all over again. You guys don’t do opposition very well, do you Glen?
Touche Glen. But Government is created by number of seats not popular votes, so Labor technically does have a slight mandate in my opinion.
If the Nats side with the Libs the thing that would’ve cost the Libs government was their inability to win more seats than Labor.
Crap, it’s 11:30.
Oz and Glen
Compromise. There was a 5% swing TO The Greens (WA).
Its not a swing between Liberal and Labor.
And not 1 MLA for a swing to the Greens as big as the National Party’s vote.
The injustice that not even McGinty is out.
Next time, next time… it could be soon.
I’m surprised the result hasn’t leaked yet.
its live on sky
Its a Lib Govt.
Adam, but this time the Nats really are on the way out and we could hasten their demise if we really wanted to.
ShowsOn we won what 8 seats, started from a low base thanks to 1v1v and had an election called during the Olympics, had it been a fair fight we’d have won most likely more seats than the ALP.
So much for ‘independent’ lol
Nationals support Liberals
labor out
Are you serious.
and the deal was made 8 days ago…
nice site, btw…
See Grylls didnt have the numbers to back the ALP and the message from their voters was they didnt want Happy or should i say Sad Carps in for another 4 years.
1 Down, many to go.
Damn. I wanted to see William eat a hat.
So the Libs still need a few independants.
Bl Carps and WA.
Look up the word “more” in a dictionary.
Grylls just admitted that the ALP put a better deal on the table. His credibility is going to take a hit over this.
This also means that Carpenter is gone.
WTF? So he sold out the bush so he could become Deputy Premier?
So he was pressured by the Party.
It sounds like Grylls was rolled by his party.
Retracts chortle.
Carpenter goes from rooster to feather duster in one press conference.
You can look at it that way, or as Gary said he was more likely rolled.
Yeah, a bit of a joke in the end. He said for a long time it was always going to be about getting the best deal, and then in the end it comes down to a vote from his council, not the deal. Independent Nats my ass.
So Carpenter likely to retire from politics?
I told you he got rolled by his Party.
I wouldnt be surprised if this young Turk gets rolled himself in good time
Yup
Dario,
I think I also heard him say that in order to get their plans through (royalties for regions, etc.) that they would have had to rely upon Greens votes to get it through the upper house which wasn’t a tenable plan. So while Carpenter could promise him the lower house cooperation, he wasn’t in a position to promise upper house cooperation as well. That seemed, to me, to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Now, I admit I didn’t hear the full news conference so there might have been more explanation.
*#&$*#&*(#&*$(&#*(#& …….. Now, I’ve got to put up with Liberal leadership in WA (moving there in January).
……….
Ah well, coast-to-coast 2002-08 RIP. It was a good run. Now it’s coast-to-rabbitproof-fence.
All federal funds for WA will be cut off tomorrow morning.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see another election well before the 3 years is up.
Make that 4 years.
Don’t do it jules!
Interesting:
Liberals+Nationals+Liz Constable+John Bowler
I wonder whether they will attempt to change any IR laws?
Nationals (and I assume John Bowler) reserve the right to leave Cabinet and I guess vote against legislation.
Interesting.
Gives them a LC majority as well.
Grylls said there are now 2 National Parties in WA?
If John Bowler decided to go with Labor at any stage would the new government fall?
Wha-?
Oh well, no more blaming Labor for their ills.
There are some harsh lessons coming the Liberals’ way.
1) They will have to learn (or at least temporarily pretend to adopt) a sense of social conscience. Life is not all about what money individuals and corporations can drag out of the ground. It is also about repaying some back to the communities from whose districts the wealth is extracted. This will force the Liberals into ideological contortions that will leave them looking gawky and pained.
2) They have as their Treasurer a confessed chair-sniffer. Watch the new Opposition go to town on him.
3) They will be governing during most uncomfortable circumstances. An unconvincing win, a tenuous hold on power. The likelihood of unstable government. The prospect of the Liberal brand being damaged by presiding during an economic downturn. Immense pressure will be applied to them from Labor states and Labor federally as Mr Rudd pursues cooperative federalism.
Would they lose their majority? Probably a better question.
It is about time. Brendan finally ceded his nonsensical proposition of a Labor/Nat coalition.
Gary, if Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove, hers would be the decisive vote without Bowler. Otherwise, Liberal plus Nationals plus Constable equals 30 seats. Like it or not, today marks the start of a long march through the wilderness for Labor.
So will the federal tax on gas be a bargaining chip now I wonder?
All the real states who don’t need to rely on whoring out their environment to say afloat are still Labor. That’s all that counts.
/tongue in cheek.
Rubbish. There will be no stop, to blaming Labor for their ills. No justification will be required. Its a great tradition to blame the previous government. No-one is above it.
Hmmm, I dunno. Cuppa’s outline some of the problems facing the new Government and if they don’t deal with them well it could set up a win for Labor next election.
Let’s see how they like it when their pensions are cut off tomorrow.
Well I wonder how long till the Libs try to roll back all gay rights and re criminalize homosexuality? And re criminalizing pot.
Lets watch social progress go majorly backwards! I feel sorry for the people of WA.
Is your Gravatar the Terry Gilliam God from The Holy Grail?
I would have like to see you eat that hat!
Dario @ 106,
Haven’t a choice in the matter, the move is job related, we are a defence family.
Say goodbye to Carps, Ripper, McGinty all the old guard will fade away.
It’s actually going to be a good thing for Labor, gets rid of alot of dead wood.
113 cuppa – I would have thought the harsh lesson the Libs will have to face is the Nat’s demands for rural funding…
Glad to see some defence is sent to other side of the Brisbane line, sometimes. Not all Sand Gropers are nasty people with Banana Splits voices. WA will be OK.
Just announced on ABC. Nats are Liberal creatures forevermore. Gutless.
Brian Burke and Julian Grill are going to have to change the speed-dials on their mobile phones. Is Barnett going to impose a blackout on his Ministers from talking to the Godfather?
Yes Disasterboy, it is intended to signify my authority round here. Regarding hat eating: one lesson we should all take from the last two months is that you should never hold your breath waiting for me to be proved wrong about anything (okay, so I did pick a one-seat Labor win, but those was a much better guess than every better-paid commentator I can name off the top of my head).
van onselen will be dancing around in glee
And Labor is saved from having to get into bed with a lot reactionary subsidy-grubbers. If I can’t have a Labor government, I’d rather be in opposition I think.
124,
Thanks for the vote of confidence
……. I know that folks like me are in the minority in WA (now), so maybe this will encourage me to get more involved once I get settled next year. That would be one way to tackle the problem imho 
…… Politically, now, I just need to see ALP back in Canberra next month. We live here now and I am working the election in a booth in Chisholm. Have to be publically unbiased on the day but privately will be hanging out to see Labor back in. Then need to get the Dems in in Washington (I’m a dual citizen so voting absentee in the US election). Dems in the US will be a much harder task then ALP in Canberra ……
I bet Rambo Bishop has allready been over WA Fib HQ with her copy of Workchoices, saliva dripping from her fangs, it will soon to be renamed WA Workchoices.
I’m with you Adam – an ALP-Nats coalition? The thought was fun for giving fright to the Libs, but I’m glad we won’t have the reality.
Paul Murray on 6PR says a Labor source tells him Grylls was rolled by the party executive, the composition of which can be seen here.
Who’d have thought? Six weeks ago the thought of a Liberal win would’ve seen you laughed out of town. Is this the biggest political turnabout in Australian history?
No, Bracks beating Kennet in 99 was bigger.
How long before Buswell starts sniffing around the treasury?
No 128
Gutless? In the sense that he didn’t want the Liberal Party contesting every National seat in every election hereafter?
LOL! Give me a break imacca. Grylls’ decision just save the National Party.
Will Grylls stay as leader for long?
Will he quite and become an independent or start a new party?
P.S. sorry about mis-spelling the college in electoral college.
I wouldn’t make any assumptions about the Libs only being in for 1 term. I think confident assertions are a little tired given six weeks ago we (me included) were confidently predicting a Labor romp.
How do I get my funky avatar to work?
136 Wiliam. v interesting….
Doesn’t bode well for longevity
I will leave that to our Liberal friends to judge. It’s certainly the biggest political f*&^-up in Australian history.
No 141
Grylls has indicated that the Nats will not be in traditional coalition with the Libs, meaning that they reserve the right to withdraw from cabinet and cross the floor if necessary.
143 – you have to click on your avatar and then follow the steps
Dinsdale P.,
Betcha Carpenter is rueing the fact that he waited a few too many days now to call the election ………
No 145
Yep, the ALP should have easily won given the amount of free-kicks the Libs gave them prior to the election.
The loss can only be attributed to the failings of Corpse.
148 – I would have thought one of his problems was he didn’t wait another 6 months
Not entirely surprised – although it is certainly blatantly obvious Grylls got rolled. At least the Upper House justification is a plausible one, but of course what happens until 22 May 2009?
Not entirely a bad thing for Labor to head into opposition either, but they must approach it as a short term arrangement because it could well be. With Morley a possibility to be recovered without the D’Orazio factor next time around, that leaves the ALP probably needing 1 seat. This means Alannah must be installed as leader and the dead wood cleared out.
Won’t necessarily happen, but I don’t think this Grand Tory Coalition is going to hang together well at all.
No 150
Agreed. There was already anger at the early election. Timing would have made little difference.
It didn’t make a difference to John Howard’s result in 2007.
I certainly am, Julie. Carps still has a job…
I’m sorry to have to report that there hasn’t been a one-term non-Labor government in WA since the second Mitchell government of 1930-33.
I’m with Kim Beazley on the election timing issue – Carpenter didn’t go too early, he went too late.
The right time for Labor to go was when there really was anticipation of an imminent election back in June. Instead, for reasons forever to remain a mystery, he fell between an early and a late election and came out looking terrible.
When was the last coalition government in WA?
Sweet
I’m with Adam. A win is a win. Look at the second-term winning margins of Bracks, Beattie et al in recent years. Incumbency does have some perks other than a driver and a key for the elevator.
No 155
The voters saw the early election as the cynical ploy that it was, Talkon. Accept the loss, rejuvenate the party and get on with the job of being a strong opposition.
He should’ve gone when Buswell staved off a leadership spill.
That was the point when everyone knew the Liberal party room was insane.
Leave “should’ve done” to Graham Arnold, Shows.
well, Dinsdale, it didn’t work that way for Borbidge, Greiner, Ray Groom, or David Tonkin. So anything can happen.
Dinsdale Piranha now you’re trying to predict what will happen. For that to happen, by the way, you need to turn out to be a good government. They may well be but it isn’t guarenteed because of what happened in other states.
Who’d ever thought I would be agreeing with a GOP elephant?
A Labor/Nat coalition might have been unlikely to see out a full term – but Lib/Nat coalitions have been pretty stable I would have thought.
Labor now have a major task to re-establish their credibility. Surely there is going to be recriminations and consequences for the leadership. Should we expect by-elections? Any word from Carps?
It amazes me the ALP did not all the Election when The Sniff was the Opposition Leader…Hopefully the Nats, don’t let WA go completely neo-con now!
The question is who can roll Grylls in the Nats??? I can see a Howie and Tip working relationship. If only Max was in the LA perhaps he could have made a come back, after all Max went to the 2005 election in a Coalition.
Still the question remains, how can Cautious and Sniff get Lisp to like them?
No predictions from me. Last thing I predicted was Labor picking up Dawesville, Scarborough and Geraldton. All I am saying is that if the ALP wants to make a good start now, it should forget about measuring for the curtains in Dumas House for the short term, and clear out the dead wood. Its fightin’ time.
Grog and GP, the point is that if Carpenter had gone a week earlier he would have been facing Troy Buswell, in which case he would have won. It’s a little simplistic to say the lesson here is never call an early election.
rumor has it is Grylls and Carps shook hands on a deal on friday.
congratulations to the libs and good luck to them, theyll need it. Im off to the corner to blubber like a little baby. Damn damn damn damn!!!!
^ bollocks…
Is it not possible, Will, that the Libs would have dumped Buswell anyway? Clearly enough people to make a difference didn’t mind a has-been loser being reinstalled in a seat he had vacated and put up as the alternative Premier.
I wish Carps a nice retirement and a lovely long holiday god does he need it and it may well bring a smile to his face.
i mean bollocks to ‘average joe’…. this software needs an edit post function…
any chance grylls will resign and go as an independent lol?
So now the canal is on? *Hums theme from Aida*
Barnett, ‘this is the sweetest victory of them all’!
Carps and Cautious are not good friends.
#140:
Twaddle, piffle and rot GP. I think the Nats have missed the opportunity here. Grylls campaigned for months that they were not going to be the minor branch of the Liberals. Come the election, after a very long campaign on the basis of independence, they appear to have reverted to type. I think that there will be a lot of dissapointed people out there who have given the Nats a try and will be wondering why now.
Interesting the comment from William Bowe at 136 that Grylls was rolled by the exec. Was he just an expendable front man for when they thought they were going down the tubes, and is he going to be sidelined now?
And why wouldnt the Libs contest those seats at the next election. They are not after all in a coalition with the Nats are they??
A well, roll on the next one. Till then we will have the entertainment of Barnet trying to dodge knives, Chairman sniff embarassing himself and people around him on a regular basis, and the CCC bringing out findings that will be just as damaging for the Libs as the ALP.
Still, its a bit sad that its business as usual again. Will be interesting to see how extreme they try to be this time around.
seanofperth @ 176
Now let me see . . . . I can have a senior position in Govt (as Deputy Premier?) or I can go a sit by myself . . . hmm
you need a spine for that…
as for ‘crossing the floor’ – rofl of the year.
Brendon Grylls has come within an ace of increasing his party’s lower house representation in the face of one-vote one-value, and increased its upper house representation from one seat to five or maybe six. I wouldn’t be in a hurry to roll him if I were the Nats.
And of course thanks again to the Greens for handing the Legislative Council over to the Nats for the sake of creating a rotten borough for Dee Margetts. Good work, go and hug a tree before your new government chops them all down.
Has anyone seriously thought about the likelihood of by-election heaven ahead ………!
McGinty won’t stay, nor will Kobelke ……. both were despised and arrogant non-performers in their previous portfolios and could offer nothing
positive in opposition moving forward. Could well be a couple more including Fran Logan and Co. depending on how bad the Varanus and CCC
reports prove to be. The Libs could well end up close to the 30 seats required in their own right over time, circumstances dependent.
Ah yes …… “How sweet it is to be loved by you” sung by Alan Carpenter will long be remembered as a pivotal moment in the sudden and
massive demise of the Labor Government in ‘losing the unloseable’.
And indeed, how sweet it is!
Wayne Thompson
No 179
Yes, an that independence need not necessarily mean that the Libs cannot win out of the negotiations (which they did in this case). You’re just miffed that Labor didn’t win. Fair enough, but don’t pontificate about the future of the Nats when you couldn’t care less.
A Balcatta by-election would be very interesting if Kobelke goes – Labor held it by only 2.0 per cent. Willagee and Cockburn might be close but, I suspect, no cigar. Fremantle of course could very well go to the Greens.
Colin’s comeback victory clearly rivals Howard’s 1996 miracle.
Labor has been rejected in WA and will now lose office. The first of the dominos has fallen, and the scene is now set for a great Coalition revival which will see Labor Governments swept from power right across Australia. Labor will fall in QLD next year, at the hands of the new LNP. The Rudd Government, which sits on a razor thin margin and is already manifestly failing to deliver any economic improvement, will be swept out in 2010, and then Labor will be decimated in NSW in 2011, if not before. So says Cerdic Conan.
PB says: CC, I’ll allow you back for the time being, but one bit of childish name-calling and you’re gone – there won’t be any warning.
Glen @ 187
It would come close, but Colin would have had to score an absolutely majority in his own right for it to truly rival Howard.
Well, well. Carrying on my comment last night, I saw the Dockers leading at three quarter time, and yes, they did lose as expected. Time to leave this state for a while, I think…
Wayne: If there’s a by-election in Freo, the Greens’d have to be a pretty good chance.
Especially if the Libs dont run.
Oh pish, the writing had been on the wall for Keating ever since the Canberra by-election. I remember saying on election day we were going to get thrashed. This ranks only with the fall of Kennett in 1999. No-one saw that coming, certainly not the ALP.
How come some posts are indented and some are not?
i’ve signed up but my avatar wont change wtf is going on??? HELP!
Glen, it takes about 15 minutes to kick in.
Pictures of General Wenck are not allowed Glen
Not sure I follow, Adam – which posts are indented?
No real surprise! the ALP will be disappointed but sometimes things happen for a reason
The question is can the Liberals deliver for the Nationals, for those saying the ALP will be thumped in NSW
in 2011 are getting ahead of themselves for while they may deserve it, three years is a long way off, lets not forget
back in 2005 most people did not take Kevin Rudd seriously now no one can find a Liberal that would be considered
a threat.
I think while people are pointing to Morley as a seat that ultimatly cost the ALP can take confort in the result in
Nort-West Coast where National Party preferences have won the seat for the ALP.
I think Carol Adams will hand on in Kwinana.
Does my avatar work yet?
Grog, No don’t think that early elections as such had much to do with it. If he would have called the election while Buswell was still running the shop, they would have been home and hosed. He took a bet that Buswell would hang around till the summer then when he called the election it wouldn’t have been early. Think he didn’t conceive of the possibility that the Libs would even consider a recycled leader. He should have called stumps when Buswell was in charge, thus he waited a bit too long. Once they switched leaders *again*, his hands were tied and he had to call it, he had no choice. Catching the Libs in disarray (he hoped) was his best option at that point but as we know now, it didn’t work because a different man was at the helm.
Evidently not, DP. When it does it will appear next to all your comments, including old ones.
But what about Von Paulus?
On my screen some posts appear indented in relation to others, although after the next refreshing they usually fall into line.
Buswell could have stayed if he’d wanted to, and Carpenter calculated that he would.
Paulus is allowed, since he had the good sense to surrender. (He wasn’t a “von” by the way although you often see him called that.)
This isn’t exactly about WA, but it is clearly about politics and the partisan nature of the beast and beastees. From the Newshour with Jim Lehrer re the avalanche of negative smear ads swamping the US election.
Wallowing in non-truths
DAVID BROOKS: The last 60 days of any campaign, even for those of us who love politics, tend to be depressing, because they get into the gutter. I think both campaigns have been misleading, exaggerating.
I think the McCain campaign has been more misleading and exaggerating. Obama has said things which I think are blatantly untrue, where he said John McCain said yes to — when you make $5 million, you are rich. McCain never said that seriously. Obama ran an ad today saying John McCain hasn’t changed since he join the Senate in ‘82, that he doesn’t know how to use a computer. I don’t any of us as journalists would that as the factual truth. Those things are just not true.
So, I think both campaigns are trading untrue charges. They enjoy their own lies. They get furious at the other.
JIM LEHRER: Enjoy their own lies?
DAVID BROOKS: Yes.
I mean partisan people — this is the narcissism of partisan. You get furiously outraged at the other campaign’s lies, and you love your own. Nonetheless, I do think it is fair to say that the McCain campaign has been more egregious than the Obama campaign.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec08/sbcampaign_09-12.html
And then proceeded to collaborate with the Soviets, as I recall.
No 192
Adam, you’re not seriously suggesting that Corpse didn’t see the writing on the wall before the election? How you explain the tearful pleas in the media to not elect the Libs, after internal polling continually indicated an ALP loss?
carps and co were told to go the day the west australian ran the get rid of buswell front page. No one to blame but ourselves for not going when everyone told us to. This election was not called too early it was most definately called 3 weeks too late.
As i said earlier damn damn damn damn. No i still dont feel any better.
Adam @ 186
Paras 3,4,5:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/09/07/photo-finishes-upper-house/comment-page-1/#comment-186955
Yes, he finished his career as Comrade Paulus, police chief of Leipzig in the DDR.
GP, I didn’t follow the election closely enought to know what Carpenter thought when he called the election. I doubt he would have called it if he thought he was going to lose.
At least the Eagles aren’t in the finals this year, that is some consolation to balance out the results of the WA election
Thanks Disasterboy. I see that I said then that the Greens risked handing the Council to the Nats by insisting on retaining the gerrymander for the sake of creating a seat for Dee Margetts, and I was right, wasn’t I? And she only got a third of a quota even then!
No 211
Come on Julie, Corpse’s government was corrupt.
(apologies for posting here but we’ve not got a Canadian election thread yet)
Nice article about the problems that the Canadians find themselves in …… http://www.slate.com/id/2199929/?from=rss
Thankfully they are heading to salvation…a Tory majority government.
And subject to my comment in No 214, the CCC report is to be released soon as well so for those hoping for a short-lived Barnett government, I’d say it’s just wishful thinking.
No, Adam, I don’t think you’re right. I don’t think that Dee was under any illusion that the Agriculture win was ahem fortuitous and it would be little different after the so-called 1v1v changes. Hey, I’d eat a chocolate hat, but until the button is pressed… Dee could get a seat in Agriculture in the upcoming LC.
I’d eat 2 chocolate hats in fact, but its possible from a third of a quota, BTLs and Labor preferences. In fact it would probably be a good thing.
But really the only chance for the Greens in Agriculture is when the Nationals (&/ some other popular bitter party) preference them before Labor.
Going to love it when the CCC reports come out in little while. Be interesting to see then if there are still postings from people claiming that Carpenters ALP govt in W.A. was corrupt?? Dont you just love NCB!
Brian Burke goes back to jail, NCB goes back into business. Plus ca change…
GP @ 213, I don’t honestly know enough to know if he was corrupt or not. I live in Canberra. My interest in the WA election stems only from the fact that I am moving there this summer (and now have to live under this mob). But I think that if you look hard enough, you can find corruption most anywhere. It isn’t party specific. Some politician somewhere (historically) said something along the lines once of “he may be “a crook” but he is our “crook” {paraphrasing the quote here from memory, perhaps someone who knows the original and its source can speak up?}. I’m a Labor voter so Labor would have to do something really really really bad for me to be turned off of them when I walk into the ballot box. Since I cast my first ever ballot back in the US, I’ve only ONCE ever voted for the right wing candidate (Republican or Liberal) and then I wasn’t really comfortable with that but at the time, it was the lesser of two evils.
I’m not suggesting the new government is going to fall immediately GP – but there is no way we won’t be heading to the polls again before September 2012. Possibly to see if the conservatives can get a majority, possibly not…
My point was not about whether Margetts wins or not, it was about the Greens’ selfish insistence on retaining the grossly malapportioned Council for her convenience. It’s no good saying other parties do the same thing. People who set themselves up as more virtuous than everyone else set higher standards for themselves.
A pre-emptive reminder that it is defamatory to apply the word “corrupt” to people without the appropriate criminal convictions.
I’m in NSW so not up on WA politics but I saw on the news last week that WA teachers had turned down a 15-20% pay rise because they thought the’d get more if the Fibs won? Wot are you lot smoking over there? and can I have some?
Franklin Roosevelt said of Anastasio Somoza, dictator of Nicaragua 1937-56: “Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.”
I suspect Cautious will last the 4 years.
No 221
Does Brian Burke not mean anything to Labor voters? Seriously?
No 224
William, my comment did not accuse Corpse personally of corruption. Also, I’m not sure that I like the increasing draconian tone.
Vera at 225:
Yup, thats exactly what happened. Barnet promised them more during the election campaign. Be interesting to see if they follow through. Could be a mistake by the chalikies i reckon as it seems that the headmasters are agitating for more “flexibility” in their EBA now.
While Barnets policy position is up for discussion, does anyone have a link to the policies on renewable energy from the Libs?? I have heard that both sides promissed a feed in tariff for people putting energy onto the grid (like from solar cells)??
Geraldton????????
Can Cautious Colin Confidentially Construct a Clandestine Canal?
“William Bowe
Posted Sunday, September 14, 2008 at 3:36 pm | Permalink
A pre-emptive reminder that it is defamatory to apply the word “corrupt” to people without the appropriate criminal convictions.”
Apologies from Canberra
… I was just trying to dredge up my memory banks and they weren’t working. Lets substitute schmuck instead? I’ve checked the definition on dictionary.com and it is this – an obnoxious or contemptible person. Under the circumstances, I reckon that word will suffice as a synonym 
Even a die hard Labor voter would be comfortable with that as well given that the Labor majority has disappeared now in WA parliament 
wrong 230, only labor promised such a thing
the west happily ripped into carps for flying to albany to anounce it, funny they forgot to mention the fibs didnt even have a renewable energy policy
Honestly GP@228, i think BBurke means substantially more to Tories than Labor voters, and probably little if anything to swing voters. Besides, you lot have NCB and Chairman Sniff who are so dear to our hearts after all.
Hey the Greens are doing their job of an oppositional Party pointing out others lack of virtue. It does not mean there are illusions of perfection.
There was nothing selfish about it and it was not for those reasons. All commentators of note, know that the LC, as it is, was essentially a Labor/Nats construction. Its not of any particular benefit to The Greens.
If it was my personal priorities I’d have left the mal-apportionment in the LA and reformed the LC in a compensatory way.
234
Bugger, i was hoping that it was finally going to be viable to get some on the roof.
A conservative party’s decisions and direction made by 36 faceless … whatevers. Who’d have thunk it?
They’re putting the finishing touches to the new CWA Headquarters in Hay St, West Perth. I look forward to ALP campaign material in a few years showing Grylls and Barnett standing together outside this building, waiting for the real power to be wielded, perhaps holding a nice tea cake in supplication
Bye for now. I have to go and work on tomorrow’s announcement expelling WA from the federation.
while everyone is here recalling past history don’t forget that if the pact between hitler and stalin had held we might very well be living in a complety different world to what we now live in. The brits. allies, us did what we we had to do to defeat the germans and where a cats whiskers away of going to war with the russkies.I also support the push for sir keith park”s memorial to be in the vacant place in trafalgur square,
Ah well that was fun, 9.9% of the population of Australia got to excercise their will in a democratic way.
The majority of the other 90.1% don’t care.
No 239
Gotta love how you despise the democratic decision of the people of Western Australia.
I agree ALP v Buswell would’ve been a winner.
Maybe it is simplistic to say going early is bad policy – but give me an example of it being good… Once Buswell was rolled was there any reason not to wait – (or is the CCC report going to be that bad – I have to admit I don’t follow WA terribly closely)
But then all this coulda, woulda stuff ignores the fact they lost because they weren’t good enough.
Congrats to the Greens, Nats and Independents in general who all scored big vote increases…especially the Greens…50,000+ more primary votes! 13,000+ for the Nats.
Labor shithouse. Liberals meh.
Bring on the napalm…time to rid ourselves of those responsible!!
Carpenter has resigned as the ALP leader in WA, not surprising given the days events ……
Yeah Carps is gone.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/nats-alliance-sinks-wa-labor-government-20080914-4g2l.html
ruawake, just because you live on the east coast i think it is a disgrace that you think that WA> dosen’t matter. WE are all australians.
Generic person,
I am a laborite but i agree with you that the democratic process in wa has delivered a government. Other people get over it and wait for the next election.
No 246
Ah the taste of victory is sweet.
Sorry Laborites, but we Libs haven’t tasted that since Howard’s last victory.
Carpenter did achieve getting rid of a lot of the panama hat brigade. It will be interesting to see what Barnett does when publicly confronted with similar problems.
wonder how upset grylls is and how long before troubles boil to the surface.
If one wants to read the deadwood version of news in Perth, what is the best choice for a Labor voter? Thanks, I already know to steer clear of the West, and the Australian isn’t much better.
No 248
The first thing he should do is to rule out any weakening of the power of the CCC.
No 251……..I agree, that way we’ll get to see this vacuous Liberal Govt come unstuck through its dealings with Burke and NCB. The sooner the better i reckon.
Does anyone know when the ALP caucus meets next?
Is Geraldton a problem seat now – any scrutineers????
schnitzel
Blayney won Grealton in a canter – unless something seriously screwy has happened, which I doubt.
No 255
That would be hard. The Liberal Party hasn’t had a cabinet for the last 8 years who has been leaking to Brian Burke.
One Labor Government down, eight more to go. They’re going to topple like nine pins. It’s going to be fun to watch!
Let’s hope there are similar results in the ACT. Stanhope is a disgrace.
No 259…..try behaviour like reading out speeches in parliament written by Burke/NCB and Co on behalf of their clients. Ring a bell?? Sounds like abuse of their position in parliament to me……
They also seemed to have had regular access to sensitive/leaked public service documents when it suited their political agenda….doesnt that wiff of inappropriate behaviour to you?? No I dont suppose it does now that they’re in Govt.
Pots n kettles.
261 – agreed. Stanhope is the most appalling government leader anywhere in Australia.Truly a disgrace. I think he will be a goner, thank goodness. So says Cerdic Conan.
No 262
Mr Orange, Labor lost, stop complaining.
Robin
“Carpenter did achieve getting rid of a lot of the panama hat brigade.”
You are kidding right? Carpenter was the one who let his Party get back into bed with Burke. It was just about the first decision he made when he took over as leader. One could even speculate that the two events were linked in some way.
No 262….GP. Fact No.1 Labor lost…… Fact No.2 The Libs DIDNT win. See you at the CCC. LOL!!!
p.s…..where have all you Tory’s been for the last 10 months?!?!? Its beens quiet without you
A liberal win in the ACT, now that is a fantasy.
No 268
I don’t think so. Stanhope is on the nose.
GP and Cerdic Conan,
Do you live in the ACT? Or were you just expressing your opinions of Stanhope? (perfectly fine, but if you live in the ACT you’ve more of a basis to judge)
The great Labor rollback has begun, and the ACT will be next. It’s interesting that Mr. Rudd’s much vaunted wall-to-wall Labor Government regime that was going to ‘end the blame’ and produce unprecedented cooperation between governments and all sorts of wonderful outcomes for Australia has only taken less than 10 motnhs to crack apart. It’s all downhill for Labor from here on in. So says Cerdic Conan.
No 270
I travel there a few times a year, I’ve met Zed and Giulia, so I think I’m qualified to have an opinion. You’re a Labor voter, you wouldn’t care about what I said anyway.
No 271
The whole idea of co-operative federalism is an affront to the whole notion of federations.
GP, why do you think cooperative federalism is an affront to the whole notion of federations?
Here we go, the smart alec conservative supporter. At least Glen keeps his feet on the ground.
LOL @ Mr Orange
It certainly looks like Col won to me……………
Had Grylls backed Labor we wouldn’t be hearing a sound from Cerdic.
GP and Glen would probably be still around.
The Nats were just playing with Carpenters feelings before they dealt the SLEDGEHAMMER BLOW……nasty blighters eh what?
No 274
Because federations are made up of independent states, the idea behind which is to have competition between each state and decentralised power.
Co-operative federalism simply makes the states an arm of the federal government.
In your opinion what are Stanhope’s chances Juliem?
272, always curious as to how the other guys form their opinions, that helps me to know where you are coming from. I can respect a Tory opinion if I know it is reasonably grounded, even if I don’t agree with it.
Didn’t Labor win the NT election?
No 281
Fair enough. Ditto vice versa.
#276 Elf…….nort sure how winning less seats in the LA than the ALP means the Libs won?!?!?
Next you’ll be telling me that “Crazy Col” has a mandate….thats when I really will LOL.
Cant wait the next next election in two years
The likely result in the ACT is:
Brindabella – Lab 3 – Lib 2
Gininderra – Lab 3 – Lib 2
Molonglo – Lab 3 – Lib 2 – Green 2
So says an ex Canberra Grammar Boy.
Well, so much for “co-operative federalism” and “ending the blame game”.
Didn’t take too long before Australian’s decided they didn’t like what they saw, did it?
Well, overall, I can’t say. But on the south side of Canberra (I live in Tuggeranong area, Chisholm specifically), I think he will be fine
. I base that opinion on the fact that whenever I’ve been out and about shopping over the winter and have seen the pollies out on “meet and greet” missions at the shopping centers, the Libs have a hard time getting voters to listen to them at all. In addition, I was at a family function at one of the military bases in late July and one of the Libs was campaigning there handing out her flyers and so on. People went out of their way to avoid her and when they couldn’t, they chucked her stuff in the bin afterwards when she wasn’t looking ……
Ah, A-C – the conservatives are out in force.
282 – Labor did win in the NT, but only by 50 votes after a huge swing against them. The CLP only had a couple of seats in the NT Parliament prior to the election, so it was very difficult for them to translate a huge swing into an actual victory. The fact that they came within 50 votes of achieving it shows that voters are now prepared to turf out Labor Governments right across our great nation. So says Cerdic Conan.
A-C
Australian’s? WA is 9.9% of Australia by population, 14% by Gross State Product.
I think you are drawing a long bow with that term.
No 287
Grassroots campaigns are always difficult. You can’t tell me that the ALP hasn’t had similar experiences. People want to get on with their shopping, not talk about politics.
William, how soon can we get an ACT election thread ?
….. then we can migrate our ACT chat there …..
Full marks for Allen Carpenters dignity as he susseeds power to his political opponent!
So some of our smart alec friends may be a little disappointed then with any luck Juliem with any luck. I must admit though they haven’t had much to crow about lately.
To be honest I don’t see Qld going LNP next time and I think Victorian Labor will hang on. NSW is a lost cause, Rann should scrape back and Tasmania is an unknown.
No 293
What did you expect him to do? Hold parliament house under siege?
Poor Mr Orange….not understandee the politicee
Captain Col now has the Premiership, therefore he has the power, therefore he WON! This is what politics is all about. Carps can cry all he likes about winning more seats (although he actually won less popular votes) but it is the party that can form Government who wins. Always has been.
re Mandates…….. this is labor terminology and thinking. Once again …… Liberal thinking is, we WON therfore we CAN!
294 – a nonsensical analysis. Labor is gone everywhere. People have just had a gutful of them.
But I’m sure you would agree Cerdic Conan, a win is a win. At least Labor has the majority of seats in the NT.
Cerdic Conan – you wouldn’t know. What to you base that absurd statement on?
298 – yes, Labor won in the NT. However, they will lose next time ….
GP,
Perhaps so but personally, I always take literature from the ALP guys as I want to let them know that I support them (so spend a few minutes of my time with them as they are spending their time to be there). A visit to the store that takes a few extra minutes for a good cause is not a problem. Campaigning takes time and I want to let them know that I recognize and appreciate their efforts. No better way to do that then stop and chat for a few minutes
.
Funnily enough it may actually be easier for Rudd to get IR changes through now that the Fascisti are in power in W.A. Cautious Col may simply do a Victoria and refer powers to the Feds, which none of the ALP premiers seem that keen on as far as i know. That will make IR someone elses problem entirely which is always a good thing when you have no talent available to deal with problematic issues, and when its something people remember you being crap at from your last go around.
I think the cooperative federalism is simply States and Feds actually working together for a change. But as far as i know, every time this has come up its been obvious that while the Feds would prefer to do things by cooperation, they consider that they can force matters (health, IR) if the states jack up. Having taken that position from the start, i reckon there is an expectation that at some point they will.
Seems to me that GP@273 is somewhat easily affronted, and slightly inconsiderate his fellows, but thats all part of the entertainment value of this kind of media. I miss Tabitha.
In four year’s time. Another magical prediction. How do you do it?
299 – thirty years of close study and observation of Australian politics, with an ability to predict election results with nearly 100% accuracy. This time round I even put my money where my mouth is and bet $300 with Centrebet on a Liberal win in WA – I won $1250 !
Did you put money on the last federal election Conan, If so who did you back?
Gary Bruce – no, this was the first time in my life that I have bet on an election result.
Did you predict a Liberal win last Federal election Conan?
302,
” I miss Tabitha.” Surely you jest ……….. if you don’t, you’re the only one
Gary Bruce – I hoped against hope for the Liberals to get over the line, however narrowly, in the federal election. I didn’t want to let myself think that they might lose. But my political antenna told me that Labor would win.
Do you think the Libs will win the next federal election Conan?
What a load of cobblers. So says Dario.
Gary Bruce, yes, the Liberals will inevitably win the next federal election. Rudd is destined to be our first one-term Prime Minister since James Scullin.
Cerdic Conan Says:
August 1st, 2007 at 4:50 pm
All right then, let’s get back to Parramatta. There’s no mystery here. The Liberals simply aren’t going to win this seat, and they know it. So why waste time and resources on it? They will spend their time and resources on the seats that they can and will win. And as a result they will win the election. So says Cerdic Conan.
#296 Elfy…..oops meez sorry bossman……me knows that yous born to rule, and yous always right…..mees get back in my lefty box now bossman.
so which ministerial office will you be working Elfy? or are you confined to Menzies House for the time being?
labor can still work on some nats. the atmosphere between some and the libs is going to be quite toxic
Now I know you haven’t learned a great deal in your “thirty years of close study and observation of Australian politics.”
How many seats do the Libs need to win in SA to take government Conan?
Anybody else waiting on Sportingbet to cash out the election dosh?
I have a feeling they’re going to wait until Parliament sits and the government is tested on the floor before paying out. I sincerely doubt the bookies will be pleased with this result. Serves them right for serving up ridiculously bad (or good, depending on who you are) odds!
ruawake – I too was well aware of the copious ramblings of Conan in the past. Hence my questions.
No 301
Well, you are in the minority of voters julie, I’m afraid to say. Those of us who have handed out HTVs and other political propaganda during campaigns before and during polling day know full well that people are rarely so interested to stop and discuss issues.
with 700 mill a year to find and already pledging 600 mill more than labor in election promises, exactly where will the libs find the money for the nats. will it come from the promised 120 mill extra for teachers, the 250 mill in promised tax cuts, or wholesale butchering of the public service and state institutions such as tafe. Barnett already raided the surplus for his election promises so any further draw down risks the states credit rating. Maybe he will try and negotiate more funds from the feds (LOL). 2.8 billion over 4 years is a lot even in rich WA. Just how many of the 95% of voters who didn’t vote national is he going to alienate. The next election may prove far more decisive if metro voters start to feel the pain.
GP
Thats because you were handing out Liberal HTVs.
GP, what is your take on future state and territory election outcomes?
No 321
I anticipated that comment, but those of us in the real world know that most Australians are politically apathetic. Especially in New South Wales, where the bar has been set so low in terms of responsible government that is now subterranean.
You betcha.
GP
That is funny.
No 322
I expect a few more to fall to the Libs. Queensland, NSW, ACT and Tas are our strongest hopes, NSW in particular.
Victoria, I’m not so sure. John Brumby could almost be a member of the Liberal Party.
SA – I have no idea. I know nothing about the situation there.
Ruawake @ 321,
“Posted Sunday, September 14, 2008 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
GP
Thats because you were handing out Liberal HTVs. ”
ROTFL ………… best one liner I’ve read in ages, thanks for cheering my day up
Some people do consider me a tad wierd, but i’m cute and lovable enough to get away with it!!
(Or so you’d think. SNIP. Extended comments about other commenters are exactly the sort of thing that gets cut from now on – The Management.)
William: has a lazy $50 just paid the sever bills for the rest of the year?
Max, they would surely have to pay out when the government was sworn in.
Don’t have those any more, Bird.
i can wear that. Sorry managment.
Any word on when Barnett and his government will be sworn in?
GP, I’ve found the quote that I was thinking of when I said earlier that it helps to understand the “other guy”.
I try to understand the Libs just a little bit (first case example quoted below). For those who know themselves but not the other guy, as noted, they are doomed to suffer defeats as well as their victories (Carpenter comes to mind at the moment LOL …. he underestimated and didn’t understand his opposition). For those who don’t know either, they won’t win at all (Costello trying to get his goal of PM someday?).
“Know Thy Enemy by Yamin Zakaria
According to The Art of War, by Sun Tzu
artofwar.thetao.info/china/printer.htm
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not your enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
(maorinews.com/writings/poems/artofwar.htm)
http://www.strike-the-root.com/51/herman/herman14.html“
No 334
Good quote.
And I agree on Costello. I’m frankly sick of him now. Absolutely self-centred.
Any idea when the government gets sworn in William?
Maybe the bookies are waiting for official announcements from those independents the Libs need that they will support a Liberal government? Or have those formal announcements already been made?
I would assume the fact Carpenter has stood down means that the new government can now form….however, I remember in South Australia in 2002 the Liberal leader (Kerin) refused to concede and thus step down until Labor proved its majority on the floor of the House. That was a slightly different situation of course, as there were a couple of independents still on the fence right up until the day Parliament sat itself if I remember. But nonetheless a precedent was certainly continued there.
I only put on $10 myself. Think I’ll re-invest the winnings, wish I could have a punt on the next SA election result but not even centrebet has anything up yet
GP back @ 279. You hadn’t noticed what Howard did with the Corporations Law? Rudd and Labor certainly have, and imo, implied in the cooperative federalism line, is that if the States don’t play nicely, they’ll be run over. Nice legacy of the Howard gov’t., that. The death of federation, effectively.
Unlike Malcolm Turnbull, who cares only for suffering humanity.
Anyone who thinks Anna Bligh will lose the next Qld election is deranged. Labor holds 59 out of 89 seats and with the member for nicklin make that 60.
So to get to 45 the LNP needs to win 16 seats. A bridge too far in a single election.
But all good Taoists know that the way that can be found is not the way! How do you know if you know yourself or know the other/enemy? Maybe ignorance is bliss and people should just follow their Buddha nature?
Adam in Canberra. Surely, you must mean Emo Man? Malcolm cares only for his own ambition, but Brendon (sitting in the gutter at 3am, Tarago with 5 kids and the wheelchair in the back), he’s the real deal.
Labor has a notional 12 seat majority here in SA. One Independent is retiring and I would say his seat will goto the Liberals. Also possible the National’s only seat could fall to the Liberal Party as well.
My prediction is SA was the last state to fall to Labor and will be the last to fall to the Liberals.
Yeah, just like in WA. There’s no way Labor could lose an election here.
No 337
If you’re referring to WorkChoices, the High Court ruled that the legislation was constitutional. Let it be clear that Rudd is not qualified to interpret the constitution.
No 339
Rubbish. The ALP required 16 seats to win federally in 2007. It got them.
Disasterboy @ 343. Obviously that was not what Ruawake was saying. It is quite clear that he was pointing out that the seat gap is quite considerable and would be difficult to achieve in a single election.
Let’s see if the Fibs have got the guts to run with Work”Choices” (or whatever it will be called then) in the next federal election.
If they don’t run openly with it as their central policy, I guess Labor will just have to make a point of explaining to the voters the situation re the Fibs and IR.
I concede. And rightly so.
GP @344. It’s how the High Court has interpreted the Law which is precisely the point.
GP
The High Court clarified the Corporations Power in the Constitution, it applies to all incorporated entities. It was nothing to do with No-Choices although that was the reason to HC was asked to rule.
Howard handed power over ALL those lovely sham Pty Ltd entities to Rudd, ooops.
this is probably the best result…now rather than an unstable alp… nat alliance
the funds for the regions need to come from some where…..
also behind the scenes the libs will do their best to ensure no nat mps are elected
this alliance is ind libs, nats & libs and Mr Bowler which is unstable too
GP. As ruawake, notes, nice legacy. Don’t think they won’t use it.
Scott,
Only possible that Maywalds seat could fall? I would put it at a near certainty. Unless she retires gracefully in the next twelve months and gives another National a go, they’re not going to win it next election. She is getting creamed almost daily by the Tiser.
I do tend to agree though that the Liberals will struggle to win in 2012 although stranger things have certainly happened.
No 352
What is the legacy? The power to legislate for corporations was determined constitutional, and thus in the scope of the federalist model envisaged by the founding fathers.
GP
The corporations power had never been tested before, similar to the external affairs power relating to the Franklin Dam.
It gives the Federal Govt. powers that were never clear before.
GP @ 354. The ruling by the High Court gave the Fed. gov’t. the power to take over all sorts of functions that have previously been the prerogative of other levels of gov’t., for example. It hadn’t been invoked, in quite the same way, till Howard tested it in relation to Workchoices. It is the unintended consequence of how much power this gives the Fed. gov’t. that is the legacy.
howards blind obssession with wc in order to give corporate aust a slave labour market gives labor a powerful tool.
No 357
TP, for all the bitching about WorkChoices, 450,000 jobs were created whilst it existed.
The Labor Party is budgeting for job losses. A stark contrast.
Wayne Swan noted in a piece for the Sydney Morning Herald that, just as the consequences of Costello’s inflation- and interest rate- raising policies were starting to hit home he brought in the most extreme IR laws ever implemented. Costello, he says, was not the answer to Australia’s economic problems, but the cause.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/all-the-credit-none-of-the-blame/2008/09/13/1220857897265.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
We’ve gone off-topic here. If anyone wants to continue the discussion about WorkChoices can they please do so on the Morgan thread.
Excluding native title.
There have been 3 HC decisions that give the Federal Govt. huge powers over the states.
1. Smut Video v ACT Govt.
HC ruled that states cannot impose tariffs (eg petrol tax).
2. Franklin Dam
HC ruled that the Fed Govt. can enter any international agreement and the states can go suck eggs.
3. Corporations Power
HC ruled that the Fed Govt. laws relating to the vast majority of companies over-ride state laws.
Oh please, GP. Unemployment was falling steadily at the same rate for nearly 5 years before WC. Talk about ridiculous.
No 359
Of course Wayne Swan would say that about Peter Costello? What did you expect? Cuppa, we don’t need more partisan rancour from Swan, Australia’s worst treasurer.
Oh indeedy, Thomas Paine. There has been any amount of discussion on the topic of how realistic it is to find competent politicians, of whatever stripe, to come up with ideas, will and the capacity to develop relevant and workable policy to organise Australia. I’ve had a nagging suspicion, that since the High Court made this ruling, there may come a time when some may rue it.
Any news on Alfred Cove???
William
Maybe a weekly “General Politics” thread would solve the problem?
What I said at 360 will now be enforced, i.e. comments not about WA will be deleted.
That’s exactly what opinion poll threads are. People staying on-topic is what will solve the problem.
It’s very dangerous to say “government X has a majority of Y therefore they cannot lose.” If the voters want to throw a government out, they will. Having said that, I think NSW is the only Labor government in danger at its next election, and that’s more than two years away, so anything could happen by election day. I don’t claim to know much about Tas, but I think Vic and Qld are quite safe, and SA is safe unless the water issue bites them badly.
indeed, the carpentener government had on paper a 17 seat majority
With talk of other state ALP ggovernments falling makes me laugh
NSW The Liberals should clearn the ALP up but still its not certain
ACT The ALP should hold on, maybe slip further into minority but the Liberals have no chance of an outright win
Qld Anna Bligh should win the next QLD election, I would expect a close contest but the ALP should be able to to hold on
Vic Brumby is in some trouble north of the divide but can the Liberals pick up 12 seats
SA Mike Rann should win the next election, as someone else said it was the last state to go to the ALP and will be the last to change
And to those claim Rudd will lose the next federal election, while I can pick several holes in his Government but non worthy of a change of Government.
Adam, you say Brumby looks safe and I can understand why you write that, but the evidence is that he will lose several seats north of the Divide, the question for Brumby is can he hang onto the seats in Melbourne’s East (Claybelt) and Melbourne’s South (Sandbelt)
12 seats is a big ask for the liberals but with Howard gone, and with increasing cost of living issues along with the problems with Public Transport getting worst the problems for Brumby are building.
In many ways we are looking at a situation that occurred during Kennetts second term when the rural communities stated getting their backs up while the burbs appeared happy but as 2002 showed they were more against Brumby & co than huge fans of Kennett.
The Liberals would expect to get close but may just fall short.
The thing I find Interesting with NSW, why is the Western suburbs of Sydney so soild for the ALP, I’m curious for even in Melbourne’s South & East there is a number of Liberal and ALP seats whilst Western Sydney seems to not just be ALP but safe and this is something that I find Interesting.
In S.A. they Liberals actually have a credible opposition leader. What they don’t have is credible policies; for example, the Government wants to build a brand new hospital in the CBD, the opposition counters this by proposing to build a brand new football stadium in the CBD. The Government has planned to completely upgrade the light rail system in S.A., and to rezone land near the rail system for higher density housing, the opposition counters this by proposing that Adelaide bid against Brisbane for the Commonwealth games.
I bet there’s gonna be some poison between Labor in opposition and Carol Adams (if she gets elected). Also, has John Bowler signed any agreement with the Nationals or Liberals?
Well after William shot me down for defending Ms Radisich and the appalling way she was treated by Alan, and went so far as to suggest it is she who should keep away from politics, this afternoon sees a time where ‘our great party, the Labor Party is strong and I am confident of it finding the best way forward.’
And Frank you were extremely loyal at all times, but can you not imagine a world where Ms Radisich had West Swan; John D a labor member held Morley (I know you don’t like him but Labor history is full of people you wouldn’t like but whom have nevertheless done great things – sometimes the great things are just play their part); Bob K held a seat (either Nollamara or Mt Lawley it doesn’t really matter) and someone else held Canning.
No doubt Alan and the team of ['experts'] (chose your own word for the Carpenter inner sanctum) around him who helped lose this election will blame the wall to wall thing (it is about all he has to use to explain how he lost the so easy to win an election) but in the hands of a real Labor person or a half competent politician we would have the scenario above, and almost certainly a Labor Govt too.
I think the best way forward has started today with Labor not forming an alliance with the Nats; and typical of Alan the best way forward wasn’t what he chose but what was forced upon him.
Such an alliance would have prolonged the damage, not just to our brand because to real labor people we are much more than just a brand (we don’t need just a media personality or two and a political consultant or two in the WA Parliament to fix all up) we are the MOVEMENT that has for more than 100 years made Australia the very best of what we are.
Yes our path as a State and Nation has consistently been slowed or diverted by the mindless conservatives, but notwithstanding them our movement has delivered consistently for more than 100 years the key elements of our great society. What could be more Labor and more Australian than the ‘Fair Go’.
So here we sit with Alan having taken half of Ms Radisich’s advice and resigned the leadership (not because he had the wisdom to listen to her words but because he lost the unloseable election) – it will be interesting to see which of team Alan have the guts for opposition; which of them have a true labor heart. Of course I’m aware that a number of real labor hearts have probably fought their all and deserve to retire now but there are a few ’stars’ who probably weren’t wise enough
Which of Alan’s great and good will stick around for the hard work, work that is so typically Labor, work that in recent times Dr Gallop did for and with us to astound the two term Court Government and claim victory on that great night for Western Australia.
After the recent farce of an election campaign run by Alan and Co it would be easy to forget that while most people couldn’t remember three good things the Government had done, if they did remember them they were almost certainly kicked of during Dr Gallop’s time.
Now for those of you who have not been watching this might look like Monday night quarter backing (almost a week out on that I know) but Frank and others will remember my concerns expressed from the start of the campaign. There are a number who if they were decent would also be hiding with Alan (preferably out of Parliament) but we will see.
But there is hope and a future for the true believers tonight.
As for the very very talented Ms Adams it depends on who is elected leader. The right Labor leader and she’ll be back in the fold by Wednesday.
Well said Jasmine 375
Bowler is much harder because while it is unlikely the Libnats could deliver anything near to as good a paper as bad as the West to metropolitan Perth, they should be able to deliver for Kalgoorlie.
What happened in Aldred Cove and Kwinana?
Adam
The WAEC abacus broke.
I wonder how long before the Liberal’s total arrogance towards the NATS and especially Grylls is going to cause a major fracas. And I wonder how long it will take for the Liberals to try and sideline, delay etc NATS spending programs.
I hope Bishop and Co berate the NATS publicly.
re jasmine
i agree with some of your sentiments, but nobody stopped jaye from running for swan hlls. She bailed because she wanted a safer seat and or a ministry. There is certainly a lot of rebuilding to do, especially at branch level where rank and file members have been disenfranchised over the past four of five years. The ALP has become evermore insular with executive power resting in fewer hands. As a former federal candidate i dont think its fair to dump on current candidates who in most cases busted their guts but still fell short. At the end of the day the pre-selectoin issues are all of our collective responsibility. Given the inherent instability of a libs, Bowler, nats co-alition we are only a by election away from regaining power. Lets hope we can get things fixed in time.
Surely Mr Paine, Labor just has to watch out for desperate unneeded ‘regional programs’ and tell the people of Perth this is why their emergency rooms are the worst in the country.
All those false images the West has built of WA against a Labor Govt can be used against a LibNat team diverting resources to the regions.
What this election teaches, other than that your wrong if you thought 1 vote 1 value would deliver anything more than fairness, is that the Metro vote IS ALL IMPORTANT. LAbor would swap north west and pilbara for the two handfuls of metro seats in a blink of an eye.
I didn’t say Radisich should keep away from politics, I said she should run for Swan Hills. Refreshing though to hear a Labor person eulogising a former member who has just cost them a seat and possibly government by running against them and directing preferences to the Liberals (by which I mean D’Orazio). Solidarity, comrade.
William any news on Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove??
Having nominated against an endorsed Labor candidate, Ms Adams is no longer a member of the ALP, and whether she can be readmitted is a matter for the state executive I would have thought, Jasmine. I know nothing of the local circumstances, but it sets a very bad precedent for someone to fail to get preselected, defeat the endorsed candidate, and then get immediately readmitted. I know it’s happened before but that doesn’t mean it should become an accepted practice. Two of the things that have kept Labor strong all those years you referred to have been loyalty and discipline. However a brilliant candidate she may have been, and whatever her grievances, doing what she did shows neither loyalty nor discipline.
mexicanbeemer – note the time and place you said that.
Next to nobody thought the Liberals had a chance in hell at winning in WA three months ago. Not many more thought they had any better a chance three weeks ago. And yet they will shortly be forming government and one would suspect will keep power for a good couple of terms. Go back even further to a couple of months ago and everyone thought Labor was a shoe in in the NT – the government there didn’t do anything particularly scandalous yet nearly found itself out on the porch.
Adam is right, if the people want a government out then there really is no such thing as an insurmountable swing. And as has been pointed out correctly before, state Labor can no longer idly blame the federal government now that Howard is out, making it exceedingly difficult to buck pass.
oops sorry William, forgot about the on topic comment. Will move on…
Your comment wasn’t off topic, Max.
No news on Alfred Cove, but I expect the five counts conducted today to start coming through in an hour or two.
Dear Rumpolecat
As for Ms Radisich I ask you this, as a genuine labor true believer who deserved West Swan more, Rita or Jaye? If you say Rita please do tell me why.
In my mind Rita stands for all the things that meant we lost this election, while Jaye was a potential minister who had done the work in the community (even the Swan Hills voters probably wouldn’t have resented her the relatively easy West Swan after her 8 years on the ground and two come from behind wins) possibly even a future leader, essentially she was punished very harshly for not being a yes man.
History is a harsh judge and the Carps New Labor faction has a terrible start and weeks after formation is responsible for losing the unloseable. Lets hope they have to pay for that soon.
As for the rest of what you say I agree completely. Labor has all but smashed whatever weak relationship it had to local communities in this election. It was the very definition of stupid.
Why on earth as it taken the WAEC so long to count votes? Are they really that short staffed?
Seriously i know its hard to organise since Happy Carps called it so early but that it has taken more than a week to know the result is a disgrace IMHO.
If we can know the seat results by Sunday or Monday in a Federal Election but have to wait more than a week for the results of a state election is just not up to scratch.
Whoever is running the WAEC should be fired.
Glen, the closest seats in the federal election weren’t decided for two weeks. It isn’t the WAEC’s fault that the closest seats have decided the result.
I’ve had my two cents and more so one last comment.
As for solidarity comrade yes I think it would have been better for Labor to preselect Ms Adams and Mr D’orazio. And I think Ms Radisich relatively irrelevant to the outcome. But equally I consider Ms Radisich someone who could have helped build the Labor future we need from opposition, perhaps Rita will be too, we will see.
And in normal circumstances both John and Carol would be and should be totally excommunicated from that solidarity – be the lepers we turn our backs on when they passby.
But Alan and the way he ran preselections and the way he treated John and Carol is brave and strong leadership – if you win. John and Carol both represent the connection with local communities that was so missing in the Labor Campaign. They are also emblematic of the Carpenter arrogance.
Alan didn’t win – he has suffered one of the greatest defeats in Labor history, pulling loss from the jaws of massive landslide victory (if he were to have an honest moment he would say that the entire preselection process was based on the assumption of a massive landslide win to labor – but as for the honest moment I’m not holding my breath).
It usually takes a long time to count the votes fully and there were lots of close ones on this occasion. I think the system could be better however, and doubtless it will be closely examined by poeple outside the Electoral Commission this time.
By the way – Geraldton. Have they found the 1100 votes they have lost for the Geraldton recount? How can they complete the count without those I wonder?
So the Libs have won their first state election since the 1997 SA one!!! Hip, hip hooraayyy!!! An 11 year drought broken. However, if the WA Nats don’t see those royalties, the Libs could be in trouble.
Peter Kennedy of the ABC says last night’s stories of a Nationals-Labor deal were “fuelled by Liberal sources” and “Colin Barnett’s manner” when he was at the tally room last night. Nationals MPs made their decision “very late” last night. Grylls says the clincher was the situation in the upper house, which makes it interesting to speculate how different things might have been if the Greens hadn’t held out for the malapportioned six-by-six system that has delivered the Nationals five or six seats.
I don’t think you can conclusively say the Liberal Party have won the election, Lord D.
That’s not sour grapes, but a hung parliament by its very nature is a halfway house.
And Jasmine, I respect your point of view and agree with some of it – but I believe Rita Saffioti will be a very good asset for the SPLP going forward.
Um, Jasmine, I haven’t been following WA affairs in the detail you have, but a quick google reminds us that D’Orazio was dumped because he was:
“guilty of serious misconduct and appalling judgment in meeting Corruption and Crime Commission target Pasquale Minniti last May to discuss his traffic offence problems. Mr Carpenter conceded that Mr D?Orazio had finally run out of lives after this year?s ?Godfather? affair and revelations that he had failed to pay workers their superannuation entitlements and that he had driven without a licence because he had failed to pay speeding fines.”
Are you really suggesting that Labor could have gone to the election with a candidate carrying that kind of baggage? The whole campaign would have been about D’Orazio and his speeding fines.
No 399
Talkon, Alan Carpenter has just resigned and accepted defeat. The technicalities and what ifs & buts no longer count.
Let us all welcome Premier Barnett! Hoorah!
William,
Can you confirm that around 182,000 (13.68%) of eligible voters in W.A. have apparently failed to vote in this election.
The WAEC pre-election costing budget was quoted as being around $15M in total for the election.
If the above-mentioned figure is anywhere near being correct, this would mean
that a whopping $9.1M in fines will be going into the State Treasury would it not?
Also when added to the entire informal vote (4 – 5% across the board) in this election, are there any evident trends that this election in particular suffered a lower
participation rate than in previous elections in W.A.?
If so, what would be your take on that?
Jasmine,
Adam makes a good case for D’Orazio, he had baggage and the Libs would’ve run Godfather ads at every second ad break if he was running for Labor.
And GP:
Two Words – John Bowler – he gets named and shamed, and is forced resign from Parliament then there is one less vote in the alliance. Oh and add Troy Buswell if his time as Busselton Shire President is mentioned as well.
to lose an unloseable election is probably a good thing…… for the party that loses
Labor can re build from where they are…. at the least Morley was an upset which will not be repeated. I would not bet a minority govt is stable or long term
one thing of interest was the stability of the country seats where there was a
sitting mp contesting
SNIP: Defamatory comment deleted – The Management.
Liking the Menzies photo Glen.
Yeah Adam I’m pretty sure he was as cleared as anyone could be of all those allegations.
As a Labor person I always thought the superannuation stuff should have killed him but it didn’t. No-one seemed to care about that.
It was the CCC stuff and my understanding is he was completely cleared, and that is when / why he rejoined the party. The licence stuff he was completely cleared of.
Even Frank on this site, who clearly dislikes him, has stuck with vague and unproven allegations of branch stacking as the good reason to keep him out. A great factional reason to keep a factional opponent out, unproven branch stacking, but not really publicly defensible stuff.
In any event he would have easily retained a Labor seat, and that is what we lack following the election.
It is harsh but politics revolves around winning and Alan didn’t.
Nice isnt it GP, all the ALP supporters must be hoping that they end up with a decent leader and not a Nelson. But it is possible Eric Ripper may take over. I would almost pity the fool if that were the case.
See Frank I accept that Carol is the perfect example of everything that Alan got wrong, and John D is a pretty weak example (except even on your view he has spent 30 years building branches in the electorate – and yes it was work that was enough to upset the Alan choice Whitby).
But John Bowler blows your whole case out of the water. Here is a guy who had to resign from the party and the cabinet, didn’t ever come back and wasn’t cleared as far as I know – but he was chosen by the people of Kalgoorlie. Either you have to stop believing in democracy or you have to accept John B has just been cleared by the most important jury.
Jasmine, cleared by whom?
If Bowler were to resign I’d be surprised if Labor won Kalgoorlie. Whatever bad stuff he did he did as a Labor member, so if he goes down it will be more Burke-Grill-Labor-corruption headlines. Kalgoorlie isn’t a Labor town anymore.
Jasmine,
Bowler was caught red handed leaking Cabinet documents to Brian Burke – a HUGE No No- Carpenter dumped all those who messed with Burke.
It seems you are a Burke Supporter – well he IS poison.
No Jasmine it doesn’t work that way. Elections are not trials. Nixon was re-elected but that didn’t absolve him of Watergate. I realise WA Labor people are a bit upset today, but this is all rather silly.
Wayne, revenue from fines for non-voting adds up to barely $1 million at a federal election, which suggests that only six fines are paid for every 100 non-votes. Quite a few of those non-votes would be from people who have a legitimate reason for not voting (being dead, for example). State elections would have the further complication of people still being on the rolls after moving interstate. So far turnout seems to be 3 per cent lower than at the 2005 election, but that might be because they haven’t yet counted all the votes in seats where the result is not in doubt.
No 408
LOL Glen.
William,
Being dead has never been an impediment to voting in the Labor Party.
Hey dead people have a perfect right to vote, William, and they should not use being dead as an excuse to avoid their responsibility. You may be too young to remember the famous Castlereagh by-election, and the important role that Walgett cemetery (I think it was Walgett) played in that legendary contest.
No 413
Well I had to get my brother to vote for me in the NSW LG elections because I was in Fairfield for the day. I live in City of Canada Bay LGA though.
Personation! *Gasps with horror*
Well, unfortunately, the draconian electoral rules for NSW LGA elections means there is no possibility of an absentee vote, and since I was committed in another area for the whole day, 35 minutes from where I live, it was impossible for me to personally cast my vote.
To which I believe the law says: “Tough tit. Your brother has committed a serious offence. Off with his head.”
GP: Why weren’t you campaigning in Canada Bay?
‘This is rather silly’. So Adam in elections the people don’t get to chose who is the best to represent them and their choice doesn’t mean anything?
I never suggested it was a key element in a criminal trial and it is both unfair and silly to suggest I did.
Frank, yourself and others were suggesting John D was electoral poison. Obviously he wasn’t electoral gold or he’d have won, but frankly John B is in very a similar camp and was elected. Probably the observation that Kalgoorlie is not a labor town is key, but that comes straight back to my point in this election Alan = Labor. And as my posts should show I’m not upset at all, I think Labor has a real chance of building something great from here.
As for me supporting Burke well I’ve never met him. I think Dr Gallops stance to Mr Burke is now demonstrably the proper way to treat him and Carps two Burke doctrines were both a failure.
GP,
Don’t they have pre voting in NSW?
Adam @ 410
Kalgoorlie is not a Liberal seat either (unlike the electorate that Matt Birney held which was based on the town minus Boulder) Jasmine is making the point that Alan [I'm the Premier] Carpenter lost this election rather than the Labor Party.
I don’t live in WA and I can’t say exactly how WA Labor contrived to lose the election. You may be right, it may all be Carpenter’s fault, I don’t know. I’m pretty confident, however, that Labor would not have done any better if it had gone into the election with Bowler and D’Orazio as Labor candidates, and had been compelled to spend the whole campaigning defending their records, which is assuredly what would have happened.
Had the Libs not changed leaders willy nilly for the past 3 years, the Liberals probably would have won such a victory they’d have been able to govern in their own right.
Now that they are in Government, they can prove that their instability and infighting is long gone, Barnett will have the kind of power Rudd enjoys and this will be for the benefit of the Party and the State.
It is one thing to resist a questionable candidate. It is quite another to impose and also be seen imposing your own hand picked candidates. Carps did it everywhere and by and large they lost just like he did.
Dorazio wasnt an option for pre selection. His behaviour at best meant he was as accident prone as mr Bean or conversely well lets just say not a suitable candidate. The mistake was putting Reece Whitby in morley and not a local branch member. Whitby was a bizarre candidate, a half baked wannabe shock jock journo. His preselection was a disaster and we knew it. Any one could see that Dorazio would run as an independent given half a chance and he only need to poll 14% or above to cause us grief. A local candidate would have negated Dorazio and saved that seat. That we threw it away for a candidate as weak and as unsuitable as Whitby was insane. As i said previously we all share responsability for this situation because we allowed the faceless few to concoct this situation without question. A more robust decision making system will come of this result as the old factional back deals have totally failed us.
No 421
I promised a friend who was running for Fairfield Council that I would help out. He has been elected, so I believe it was worth it.
No 420
Of course it was illegal. But I need not have voted by proxy if the electoral laws were drafted with some common sense.
I agree, Whitby should’ve been pre-selected for Cottesloe against Barnett, where Whitby was a local councillor there and had a more local link to the area, but having said that Reece can also have some link to the electorate as he worked for both Ch 7 & 9 which are located in the electorate.
I should clarify that statement by saying the Morley Electorate.
Rumpolecat, I agree completely and your views are wiser and more measured than mine, and that saves you Adam’s cheap barbs!!!! I will learn.
I deny directing “cheap barbs” at Jasmine.
I note GP’s view that he has the right to break the law if he finds it convenient to do so.
What was the shot about being silly for observing that despite his links to Burke John B had just been judged by the electorate? I’m sorry I’m assuming now it was witty observation, not a cheap shot that tried to avoid the issue by pretending I had said / claimed something I didn’t. My humble apologies.
adam dont you realise that the law is the plaything of the rich and priveledged!! if it had been a labor candidate, well heck call in the federal police. It would obviously be corruption at its worst.
Careful, last time I mentioned that in regards paraqchuting Diedre Willmont into Cabinet without being elected resulted in the self-rightous such as Average Joe calling me an ALP Hack.
i wear ALP hack as a badge of honour!!
No 434
If it were a state or federal election in which absentee votes are allowed, I would not be breaking the law. No, I don’t think it is morally turpitudinous to warrant the phony outrage.
No 437
I think your avatar cements your ALP hackery.
Colin Barnett as Premier has all the hallmarks of Chauncey Gardener.
gp no outrage, i see your point completely. By the way did your cat and dog vote as well, after all its only local elections.
Frank and Rumpole are spot on.
Carpenter fell on his arse because of his stupid attempts at parachuting candidates in left, right and centre. Had he not installed Karen Brown in Mount Lawley, I dare say Bob Kucera would still be the local member. Had he found a popular local to neutralise the D’Orazio spillage in Morley, they’d have held that seat relatively easily. Had he tried to appease Jaye Radisich rather than more or less telling her to get stuffed, she’d still be the member for Swan Hills. That’s three seats right there – three seats which would’ve kept him the premiership. Carpenter should go down as the premier to commit the most unnecessary electoral suicide since Des Corcoran.
GP,
Do they have pre poll voting in NSW.? If so, why did you not avail yourself of the opportunity to fulfill your sacred civil duties?
Couldn’t be fagged is not a acceptable response.
Whoa Glen @ 426
“Barnett will have the kind of power Rudd enjoys”?
Well he’s in Government so technically you are right. Same could be said of any Govt.
But the comparison is with a party elected in it’s own right and one dependent on a minor party plus independents.
Hardly think this is an overwhelming endorsement of the Libs.
And if you think Barnett has the kind of power Rudd wields, why would Buswell still be there?
No 442
Excepting a few candidates that I know personally, a dog or cat in Fairfield would have been of higher quality than the rabble that were elected.
No 444
Yes, pre-polling is allowed. But I did not promise to help my friend until two days prior to the election. So, it was last minute and therefore it precluded any pre-poll voting.
Jasmine, with all due respect, it is silly to say that charges of serious misconduct against a politician are somehow magically erased because they get themselves re-elected. That’s not a cheap barb at you, it’s a fact. As I understand it, Bowler both broke the law and betrayed his Cabinet colleagues and party by leaking Cabinet documents to a lobbyist, namely Burke. Is that not correct? His re-election doesn’t alter that one bit.
GP,
It is just interesting that someone like yourself who comes here and vigorously prosecutes their arguments about how people should vote, can’t be bothered following the rules that apply to you as to every other elector when it comes to voting.
Adam
It does however remind us how little the voting public are swayed by unethical conduct. I’m not sure if it doesn’t sink in, they forget or they just assume all politicians are bottom-feeders. I’ll be interested to hear what the Libs stance on Burke is. I wonder how long before he tries to make contact.
Diogenes,
I imagine his hands are in their underpants already.
No 449
I was unable to follow the rules properly.
As others have noted, failing to vote is a fairly trivial offence which is rarely taken further by the authorities. However impersonating another person at a polling place is a SERIOUS offence, and so is inciting another person to do so. As many will recall, two Qld MPs had to resign their seats for similar offences, and that was only in a preselection ballot, not an actual election.
Seems you’ve got a bit of a credibility problem here GP.
No 450
Brian Burke is a despicable character and should be avoided at all costs by the Liberal Party.
No 455
So be it.
I’ll be very interested to see how the West Australian plays the Brian Burke angle. Their stance on BB could be interpreted in many different ways, not all of them charitably.
Alfred Cove
WOOLLARD – IND 10200 51.01%
BACK – LIB 9795 48.99%
Morley
WHITBY – ALP 9629 49.13%
BRITZA – LIB 9969 50.87%
GP,
What about NCB. Same product, different branding.
Anyone know when the first sitting of the new parliament will be?
What’s going on in Kwinana? Final preferences were supposed to be distributed today, but the WAEC site shows bugger all of use.
If Carol Adams wins Kwinana, then it’s ALP 27 Lib 24 NP 4 Ind 4 just as I predicted although I admit to identifying Carine instead of Kwinana as the fourth Indie seat.
Well this is a political thread, not a legal thread. So on the political side he is back in the house near the freeway. That is a victory for him. And if you believe in democracy the people are right and have decided what is best for them, notwithstanding you US president example.
If we were to move to a legal thread, I’d ask you to elaborate on what laws he is alleged to have broken? I would question why with such public evidence of this crime you allege he hasn’t been charged yet.
Moving away from the alleged criminal and back to the political betraying his cabinet colleagues may very well be what helped secure his re-election in that electorate. But don’t get me wrong he couldn’t and shouldn’t have run as a labor candidate.
I don’t think John D was in the same category but. And Ms Adams definitely is not. The worst you can say about Ms Adams, win or lose (the WAEC has an 8.30 pm up date but no TCP), is that she signed a pledge as a pre-selection candidate that she broke.
In normal circumstances, where the Premier won, that would be enough to see her in the wilderness for the term of her natural life. But if she wins, given the Premier didn’t, I did suggest she could be back in the fold quite quickly. Given we are talking politics such a move would give the new leader of the opposition some serious distance from Carps (and IMHO we need all the distance we can buy as quickly as possible), and might start to heal the wounds carps inflicted on local branches across the metro area.
Probably State Exec would need to tick off any new love for Labor Ms Adams can be encouraged to have, but given they bowed and kissed the floor as the former premier wafted by, it is a small ask from which ever gutsy person decides to lead the opposition.
Rebecca: I imagine it’ll be up there shortly, along with the other seats done today (Nedlands, Collie-Preston).
Collie-Preston: Labor 10,494, Liberal 10,083.
Labor wins Kwinana by 300.
Speaking of fines… there was a report here on one of the SA news stations the other day regarding the counting in the Mayo by-election. Went something along these lines
“Political experts have said that lower than normal turnout in the by-election could be caused by a number of factors, including voter disinterest, anger at having to vote twice in a year or ignorance of the law (in that voters didn’t know by-election voting was compulsory). But the Australian Electoral Commission has said that such ignorance is not acceptable an excuse, and will be fining non-attendees the full fee of $25″
The poor reporter chick tried so hard to ramp up the story, but I couldn’t help but burst out laughing when she dead-panned that the last line. I doubt I was the only one either. Not a particularly frightening deterrent.
Well Jasmine I’m not sufficiently exercised by this to argue about it with you further. I hope things turn out to your satisfaction.
I have now uploaded figures for the elections in Angola and Hong Kong, plus a beautiful map of the Hong Kong electorates.
Here incidentally is a photo of me at Gingin cemetery at the graves of my WA pioneer ancestors.
http://www.adam-carr.net/mainphotofolder/gingin1.jpg
Normal hackery will be resumed tomorrow.
The talented Ms Adams odds of being readmitted to Labor family very very small. Politics hates losers.
William: I’ve seen the indenting Adam described — it’s a weird MSIE vs. blockquotes thing I haven’t quite figured out yet.
Thankfully Labor won Kwinana, would have been very hard to win next time had the independent got a food hold.
So the final tally will be:
Labor “wins” with 28
Liberal loses but still wins with only 24
Independents 3
Nationals 4
Bowler has stated that he will support the Nationals/Liberals for supply and motions of no confidence. But I think on most thinks he will vote against the conservatives. Which means the right wing mob only have a majority of 1.
That should be foot hold
A wins a win Jacob.
Congrats to Colin, he’s a real trooper and i couldnt have asked for a better Liberal to be leading the State of WA, when you compare him to Shooter, Birney and Sniff.
Thank your lucky stars its Cautious instead.
Similar to Peter Beattie’s position in 1998, Steve Bracks’ position in 1999 and Mike Rann’s position in 2002. Remember what happened next.
Adam I respect deeply your commentary, and my satisfaction is of very little account to anyone that matters.
But today in WA Labor politics, if we cannot call the Carpenter failure out for what it is, and if today of all days we cannot say where we went wrong and if today of all days we cannot pray for a light on the hill to hold fast those of use who love labor have no purpose and no hope. If we cannot look at the mistakes and look to the future today then it cannot be done on any day, and the light has gone out – or will soon with no-one watching.
WA matters very little to the Federation, and it isn’t like WA delivered for Rudd in bucketloads. You and I have clashed many times over what is best for Labor, but that is part of what makes Labor the great movement it is. One of our problems was that very few had the strength to make Carpenter answer to the kind of clashes labor leaders have always batted away like annoying flied before breakfast. And that is one of the things that has always made us strong.
No 474
I tend to agree William. Unless the new Liberal Government turns out to be woefully corrupt and incompetent like the previous Labor Government, I expect Barnett will secure an outright majority at the next election.
Yes, and the Labor party have to get a good strong leader so there is no landslide like what happened in QLD, VIC and SA next time. If they pick Ripper then they are doomed.
William, who decides when Parliament sits the first time? Do they have to wait a certain time after all the writs are sent back?
How does Woolard lean in this make up.
If Woollard doesn’t vote with the Liberals, I’ll eat both my and William’s hats. With chocolate sauce.
Following on, Barnett intends to introduce fixed 4 year terms, and if it’s anything like the NSW legislation, only a no confidence motion can force an election.
NB: The NSW Governor can dissolve parliament for any reason according to constitutional convention, but since the chance of that is so remote – only a no confidence motion can dissolve parliament.
Of course if the ALP had enacted 4 year terms like they promised in 2001 Carps would still be Premier.
I suspect Janet would become speaker?
Especially since Liz will almost certainly get a Ministry.
The Dark Knight: Of course if the Liberals didn’t block the legislation in the first place, then we would have had fix terms.
So, does Carol Adams stay on as mayor of Kwinana now?
Woollard has always made it clear she would back the Liberals.
Cant wait to see Carol Adams prancing round tomorrow with that omelete facial.I wonder whose door she’ll be kicking in now?….LOL (x10)!!
jacob – the libs could not block it once cadby decided to support 1v1v in 2005. The ALP could have enacted it then but chose not to for ulterior motives
Liberal by 986 in Nedlands. That’s it for the evening, and indeed for the entire lower house as far as seats in doubt are concerned.
No 483
For the record, I disagree with fixed terms.
The Democrats (now defunct) argue that fixed terms increase stability and responsibility. I would urge people to look at the dire state of NSW before pledging the need for fixed terms on that basis. The reality is that the ALP and Unions treat the state as their political fiefdom wherein the role of governing is merely a secondary issue. As for stability, well three leaders in as many years is hardly a reflective of stable government.
http://www.democrats.org.au/docs/ActionPlans/Electoral_FourYearTerms_2007.pdf
While I’m all for stability in government (and for taking the politics out of election date fixing), I can’t help but wonder more and more whether fixed four year terms are just too long. One does not need to look any further than NSW to see what an unqualified disaster that can be: it’s hard to fathom they are only 18 months into a 48 month term right now. Disastrous.
I don’t know the precedence around the world though, Adam you study world elections more extensively than most… what would be the average life of a parliament in other countries? I know NZ is 4 and the UK 4-5, but that’s about all.
I guess it’s the fundamental weighing up of considerations though… what’s more important, stability or accountability? Perhaps for the states the former is more important, although I would vehemently oppose four year terms for the feds, given the massive power they wield in our federation.
Snap.
480: That and,
(3) The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved if it:
(a) rejects a Bill whic