UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
524 Comments
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Diogenes,
I imagine his hands are in their underpants already.
No 449
I was unable to follow the rules properly.
As others have noted, failing to vote is a fairly trivial offence which is rarely taken further by the authorities. However impersonating another person at a polling place is a SERIOUS offence, and so is inciting another person to do so. As many will recall, two Qld MPs had to resign their seats for similar offences, and that was only in a preselection ballot, not an actual election.
Seems you’ve got a bit of a credibility problem here GP.
No 450
Brian Burke is a despicable character and should be avoided at all costs by the Liberal Party.
No 455
So be it.
I’ll be very interested to see how the West Australian plays the Brian Burke angle. Their stance on BB could be interpreted in many different ways, not all of them charitably.
Alfred Cove
WOOLLARD – IND 10200 51.01%
BACK – LIB 9795 48.99%
Morley
WHITBY – ALP 9629 49.13%
BRITZA – LIB 9969 50.87%
GP,
What about NCB. Same product, different branding.
Anyone know when the first sitting of the new parliament will be?
What’s going on in Kwinana? Final preferences were supposed to be distributed today, but the WAEC site shows bugger all of use.
If Carol Adams wins Kwinana, then it’s ALP 27 Lib 24 NP 4 Ind 4 just as I predicted although I admit to identifying Carine instead of Kwinana as the fourth Indie seat.
Well this is a political thread, not a legal thread. So on the political side he is back in the house near the freeway. That is a victory for him. And if you believe in democracy the people are right and have decided what is best for them, notwithstanding you US president example.
If we were to move to a legal thread, I’d ask you to elaborate on what laws he is alleged to have broken? I would question why with such public evidence of this crime you allege he hasn’t been charged yet.
Moving away from the alleged criminal and back to the political betraying his cabinet colleagues may very well be what helped secure his re-election in that electorate. But don’t get me wrong he couldn’t and shouldn’t have run as a labor candidate.
I don’t think John D was in the same category but. And Ms Adams definitely is not. The worst you can say about Ms Adams, win or lose (the WAEC has an 8.30 pm up date but no TCP), is that she signed a pledge as a pre-selection candidate that she broke.
In normal circumstances, where the Premier won, that would be enough to see her in the wilderness for the term of her natural life. But if she wins, given the Premier didn’t, I did suggest she could be back in the fold quite quickly. Given we are talking politics such a move would give the new leader of the opposition some serious distance from Carps (and IMHO we need all the distance we can buy as quickly as possible), and might start to heal the wounds carps inflicted on local branches across the metro area.
Probably State Exec would need to tick off any new love for Labor Ms Adams can be encouraged to have, but given they bowed and kissed the floor as the former premier wafted by, it is a small ask from which ever gutsy person decides to lead the opposition.
Rebecca: I imagine it’ll be up there shortly, along with the other seats done today (Nedlands, Collie-Preston).
Collie-Preston: Labor 10,494, Liberal 10,083.
Labor wins Kwinana by 300.
Speaking of fines… there was a report here on one of the SA news stations the other day regarding the counting in the Mayo by-election. Went something along these lines
“Political experts have said that lower than normal turnout in the by-election could be caused by a number of factors, including voter disinterest, anger at having to vote twice in a year or ignorance of the law (in that voters didn’t know by-election voting was compulsory). But the Australian Electoral Commission has said that such ignorance is not acceptable an excuse, and will be fining non-attendees the full fee of $25″
The poor reporter chick tried so hard to ramp up the story, but I couldn’t help but burst out laughing when she dead-panned that the last line. I doubt I was the only one either. Not a particularly frightening deterrent.
Well Jasmine I’m not sufficiently exercised by this to argue about it with you further. I hope things turn out to your satisfaction.
I have now uploaded figures for the elections in Angola and Hong Kong, plus a beautiful map of the Hong Kong electorates.
Here incidentally is a photo of me at Gingin cemetery at the graves of my WA pioneer ancestors.
http://www.adam-carr.net/mainphotofolder/gingin1.jpg
Normal hackery will be resumed tomorrow.
The talented Ms Adams odds of being readmitted to Labor family very very small. Politics hates losers.
William: I’ve seen the indenting Adam described — it’s a weird MSIE vs. blockquotes thing I haven’t quite figured out yet.
Thankfully Labor won Kwinana, would have been very hard to win next time had the independent got a food hold.
So the final tally will be:
Labor “wins” with 28
Liberal loses but still wins with only 24
Independents 3
Nationals 4
Bowler has stated that he will support the Nationals/Liberals for supply and motions of no confidence. But I think on most thinks he will vote against the conservatives. Which means the right wing mob only have a majority of 1.
That should be foot hold
A wins a win Jacob.
Congrats to Colin, he’s a real trooper and i couldnt have asked for a better Liberal to be leading the State of WA, when you compare him to Shooter, Birney and Sniff.
Thank your lucky stars its Cautious instead.
Similar to Peter Beattie’s position in 1998, Steve Bracks’ position in 1999 and Mike Rann’s position in 2002. Remember what happened next.
Adam I respect deeply your commentary, and my satisfaction is of very little account to anyone that matters.
But today in WA Labor politics, if we cannot call the Carpenter failure out for what it is, and if today of all days we cannot say where we went wrong and if today of all days we cannot pray for a light on the hill to hold fast those of use who love labor have no purpose and no hope. If we cannot look at the mistakes and look to the future today then it cannot be done on any day, and the light has gone out – or will soon with no-one watching.
WA matters very little to the Federation, and it isn’t like WA delivered for Rudd in bucketloads. You and I have clashed many times over what is best for Labor, but that is part of what makes Labor the great movement it is. One of our problems was that very few had the strength to make Carpenter answer to the kind of clashes labor leaders have always batted away like annoying flied before breakfast. And that is one of the things that has always made us strong.
No 474
I tend to agree William. Unless the new Liberal Government turns out to be woefully corrupt and incompetent like the previous Labor Government, I expect Barnett will secure an outright majority at the next election.
Yes, and the Labor party have to get a good strong leader so there is no landslide like what happened in QLD, VIC and SA next time. If they pick Ripper then they are doomed.
William, who decides when Parliament sits the first time? Do they have to wait a certain time after all the writs are sent back?
How does Woolard lean in this make up.
If Woollard doesn’t vote with the Liberals, I’ll eat both my and William’s hats. With chocolate sauce.
Following on, Barnett intends to introduce fixed 4 year terms, and if it’s anything like the NSW legislation, only a no confidence motion can force an election.
NB: The NSW Governor can dissolve parliament for any reason according to constitutional convention, but since the chance of that is so remote – only a no confidence motion can dissolve parliament.
Of course if the ALP had enacted 4 year terms like they promised in 2001 Carps would still be Premier.
I suspect Janet would become speaker?
Especially since Liz will almost certainly get a Ministry.
The Dark Knight: Of course if the Liberals didn’t block the legislation in the first place, then we would have had fix terms.
So, does Carol Adams stay on as mayor of Kwinana now?
Woollard has always made it clear she would back the Liberals.
Cant wait to see Carol Adams prancing round tomorrow with that omelete facial.I wonder whose door she’ll be kicking in now?….LOL (x10)!!
jacob – the libs could not block it once cadby decided to support 1v1v in 2005. The ALP could have enacted it then but chose not to for ulterior motives
Liberal by 986 in Nedlands. That’s it for the evening, and indeed for the entire lower house as far as seats in doubt are concerned.
No 483
For the record, I disagree with fixed terms.
The Democrats (now defunct) argue that fixed terms increase stability and responsibility. I would urge people to look at the dire state of NSW before pledging the need for fixed terms on that basis. The reality is that the ALP and Unions treat the state as their political fiefdom wherein the role of governing is merely a secondary issue. As for stability, well three leaders in as many years is hardly a reflective of stable government.
http://www.democrats.org.au/docs/ActionPlans/Electoral_FourYearTerms_2007.pdf
While I’m all for stability in government (and for taking the politics out of election date fixing), I can’t help but wonder more and more whether fixed four year terms are just too long. One does not need to look any further than NSW to see what an unqualified disaster that can be: it’s hard to fathom they are only 18 months into a 48 month term right now. Disastrous.
I don’t know the precedence around the world though, Adam you study world elections more extensively than most… what would be the average life of a parliament in other countries? I know NZ is 4 and the UK 4-5, but that’s about all.
I guess it’s the fundamental weighing up of considerations though… what’s more important, stability or accountability? Perhaps for the states the former is more important, although I would vehemently oppose four year terms for the feds, given the massive power they wield in our federation.
Snap.
480: That and,
(3) The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved if it:
(a) rejects a Bill which appropriates revenue or moneys for the ordinary annual services of the Government, or
(b) fails to pass such a Bill before the time that the Governor considers that the appropriation is required
No 490
Yep. The fact that most proposals envisage 4 year terms also repels my support. The States are, by and large, service deliverers which means accountability is of higher importance.
Whilst opponents might talk about the spectre of snap elections, they are not a frequent affair. Governments don’t like going to elections too often anyway for fear of losing.
Why is it that fixed terms only come up in the context of 4 year terms? Bugger that, do fixed three year terms for state and federal govts. It would certainly stop the ridiculous focus on will they wont they for the last 12 months of a cycle and remove one of the most unfair advantages of incumbency. 4 years is too long for acountability, and can you imagine the ossification of the system that 8 year senate terms! would bring!
Of course it would be ok to have 4 year terms if we had Labor govts in power as they are generally deserving servants of the people, but we need the chance to pass judgement on the Tories more often as they can be a vicious and unstable lot when in power.
No 494
I was mostly agreeing with your argument until you flushed it down the toilet with your last paragraph.
If you think NSW Labor is a paragon of responsible government, you are sadly mistaken.
It’ll be interesting if one of the Libs drops off the twig or has to resign and a byelection ensues over the term.
Is Bowler being investigated or some such by the CCC or am I confusing him with someone else?
Yep, for passing on confidential Cabinet Papers to Julian Grill & Brian Burke.
Interesting Frank. How in the hell did he get elected then?
Morley. They’re gonna have to wrap that new guy in cotton wool.
And why isn’t Glen up in arms about having him aboard?
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