UPDATE (9.30pm): Liberals win Nedlands by 987 votes.
UPDATE (9pm): Janet Woollard wins Alfred Cove by 405 votes. Liberals win Morley by 340. Labor wins Collie-Preston by 411. Labor wins Kwinana by 300. Only Nedlands to go, where the Liberals are believed to be home and hosed.
UPDATE (3pm): Alan Carpenter resigns as Labor leader.
UPDATE (11.30am): Nationals back the Liberals. Colin Barnett the new Premier.
UPDATE (11am): Brendon Grylls to hold press conference at 11.30am.
Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper brings a remarkable account of yesterday’s deliberations by the WA Nationals’ state parliamentary party, which met to decide who it would back to form government. Appearing under the headline: “DONT YOU DARE: Nats’ boss last-ditch plea to stop WA Labor marriage”, the report by Joe Spagnolo relates that federal leader Warren Truss made a “last-ditch plea” to talk state leader Brendon Grylls out of “a shock alliance with Labor”. Agricultural region upper house MP Max Trenorden, a known opponent of any deal with Labor, is quoted saying: “I am not going to say whether I am happy with the decision or not, but I’m certainly not going to commit suicide over it.” We will find out what that means exactly later today, after the parliamentary party puts its recommendation to the state council.
The Nationals’ endgame comes as the Western Australian Electoral Commission spends the weekend conducting preference counts in 11 seats designated as in doubt. The big news from the six counts conducted yesterday was that Labor retained Albany by a surprisingly comfortable 96 votes, while falling 64 votes short in Riverton. In North West, the Nationals fell 67 votes short of overtaking the Liberals in the second last count and taking the seat from Labor with their preferences, the final result being a 719 vote (6.9 per cent) Labor win over Liberal. Also determined were Forrestfield (Labor by 98 votes), Wanneroo (Liberal by 322) and Pilbara (Labor by 534).
Of the five seats to be counted today, two are genuinely in doubt: Alfred Cove, which the Liberals might recover from two-term independent member Janet Woollard, and Kwinana, where Labor has been gaining on independent front-runner Carol Adams in late counting. This puts the numbers at Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals four, independents two and two in doubt. The two confirmed independents are both in the orbit of another party: Churchlands MP Liz Constable has been promised a position in a Liberal cabinet, while Kalgoorlie MP John Bowler has resolved to work in concert with the Nationals. Nonetheless, any Liberal-Nationals arrangement will have to rely on the support of one or possibly two independents to maintain a majority in the lower house, whereas Labor plus the Nationals will equal a clear majority.
It’s the opposite story in the upper house, through which any Royalties for Regions deal would also need to navigate. While final seats remain in varying degree of doubt in all regions except North Metropolitan, the Liberals appear certain to win 16 seats out of 36 while Labor can hope for no more than 13, and are more likely to win 11. With the Nationals looking at five or six seats, the support of the Greens would probably be needed to pass a Labor-Nationals scheme that was opposed by the Liberals.
524 Comments
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GP,
Perhaps so but personally, I always take literature from the ALP guys as I want to let them know that I support them (so spend a few minutes of my time with them as they are spending their time to be there). A visit to the store that takes a few extra minutes for a good cause is not a problem. Campaigning takes time and I want to let them know that I recognize and appreciate their efforts. No better way to do that then stop and chat for a few minutes
.
Funnily enough it may actually be easier for Rudd to get IR changes through now that the Fascisti are in power in W.A. Cautious Col may simply do a Victoria and refer powers to the Feds, which none of the ALP premiers seem that keen on as far as i know. That will make IR someone elses problem entirely which is always a good thing when you have no talent available to deal with problematic issues, and when its something people remember you being crap at from your last go around.
I think the cooperative federalism is simply States and Feds actually working together for a change. But as far as i know, every time this has come up its been obvious that while the Feds would prefer to do things by cooperation, they consider that they can force matters (health, IR) if the states jack up. Having taken that position from the start, i reckon there is an expectation that at some point they will.
Seems to me that GP@273 is somewhat easily affronted, and slightly inconsiderate his fellows, but thats all part of the entertainment value of this kind of media. I miss Tabitha.
In four year’s time. Another magical prediction. How do you do it?
299 – thirty years of close study and observation of Australian politics, with an ability to predict election results with nearly 100% accuracy. This time round I even put my money where my mouth is and bet $300 with Centrebet on a Liberal win in WA – I won $1250 !
Did you put money on the last federal election Conan, If so who did you back?
Gary Bruce – no, this was the first time in my life that I have bet on an election result.
Did you predict a Liberal win last Federal election Conan?
302,
” I miss Tabitha.” Surely you jest ……….. if you don’t, you’re the only one
Gary Bruce – I hoped against hope for the Liberals to get over the line, however narrowly, in the federal election. I didn’t want to let myself think that they might lose. But my political antenna told me that Labor would win.
Do you think the Libs will win the next federal election Conan?
What a load of cobblers. So says Dario.
Gary Bruce, yes, the Liberals will inevitably win the next federal election. Rudd is destined to be our first one-term Prime Minister since James Scullin.
Cerdic Conan Says:
August 1st, 2007 at 4:50 pm
All right then, let’s get back to Parramatta. There’s no mystery here. The Liberals simply aren’t going to win this seat, and they know it. So why waste time and resources on it? They will spend their time and resources on the seats that they can and will win. And as a result they will win the election. So says Cerdic Conan.
#296 Elfy…..oops meez sorry bossman……me knows that yous born to rule, and yous always right…..mees get back in my lefty box now bossman.
so which ministerial office will you be working Elfy? or are you confined to Menzies House for the time being?
labor can still work on some nats. the atmosphere between some and the libs is going to be quite toxic
Now I know you haven’t learned a great deal in your “thirty years of close study and observation of Australian politics.”
How many seats do the Libs need to win in SA to take government Conan?
Anybody else waiting on Sportingbet to cash out the election dosh?
I have a feeling they’re going to wait until Parliament sits and the government is tested on the floor before paying out. I sincerely doubt the bookies will be pleased with this result. Serves them right for serving up ridiculously bad (or good, depending on who you are) odds!
ruawake – I too was well aware of the copious ramblings of Conan in the past. Hence my questions.
No 301
Well, you are in the minority of voters julie, I’m afraid to say. Those of us who have handed out HTVs and other political propaganda during campaigns before and during polling day know full well that people are rarely so interested to stop and discuss issues.
with 700 mill a year to find and already pledging 600 mill more than labor in election promises, exactly where will the libs find the money for the nats. will it come from the promised 120 mill extra for teachers, the 250 mill in promised tax cuts, or wholesale butchering of the public service and state institutions such as tafe. Barnett already raided the surplus for his election promises so any further draw down risks the states credit rating. Maybe he will try and negotiate more funds from the feds (LOL). 2.8 billion over 4 years is a lot even in rich WA. Just how many of the 95% of voters who didn’t vote national is he going to alienate. The next election may prove far more decisive if metro voters start to feel the pain.
GP
Thats because you were handing out Liberal HTVs.
GP, what is your take on future state and territory election outcomes?
No 321
I anticipated that comment, but those of us in the real world know that most Australians are politically apathetic. Especially in New South Wales, where the bar has been set so low in terms of responsible government that is now subterranean.
You betcha.
GP
That is funny.
No 322
I expect a few more to fall to the Libs. Queensland, NSW, ACT and Tas are our strongest hopes, NSW in particular.
Victoria, I’m not so sure. John Brumby could almost be a member of the Liberal Party.
SA – I have no idea. I know nothing about the situation there.
Ruawake @ 321,
“Posted Sunday, September 14, 2008 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
GP
Thats because you were handing out Liberal HTVs. ”
ROTFL ………… best one liner I’ve read in ages, thanks for cheering my day up
Some people do consider me a tad wierd, but i’m cute and lovable enough to get away with it!!
(Or so you’d think. SNIP. Extended comments about other commenters are exactly the sort of thing that gets cut from now on – The Management.)
William: has a lazy $50 just paid the sever bills for the rest of the year?
Max, they would surely have to pay out when the government was sworn in.
Don’t have those any more, Bird.
i can wear that. Sorry managment.
Any word on when Barnett and his government will be sworn in?
GP, I’ve found the quote that I was thinking of when I said earlier that it helps to understand the “other guy”.
I try to understand the Libs just a little bit (first case example quoted below). For those who know themselves but not the other guy, as noted, they are doomed to suffer defeats as well as their victories (Carpenter comes to mind at the moment LOL …. he underestimated and didn’t understand his opposition). For those who don’t know either, they won’t win at all (Costello trying to get his goal of PM someday?).
“Know Thy Enemy by Yamin Zakaria
According to The Art of War, by Sun Tzu
artofwar.thetao.info/china/printer.htm
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not your enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
(maorinews.com/writings/poems/artofwar.htm)
http://www.strike-the-root.com/51/herman/herman14.html“
No 334
Good quote.
And I agree on Costello. I’m frankly sick of him now. Absolutely self-centred.
Any idea when the government gets sworn in William?
Maybe the bookies are waiting for official announcements from those independents the Libs need that they will support a Liberal government? Or have those formal announcements already been made?
I would assume the fact Carpenter has stood down means that the new government can now form….however, I remember in South Australia in 2002 the Liberal leader (Kerin) refused to concede and thus step down until Labor proved its majority on the floor of the House. That was a slightly different situation of course, as there were a couple of independents still on the fence right up until the day Parliament sat itself if I remember. But nonetheless a precedent was certainly continued there.
I only put on $10 myself. Think I’ll re-invest the winnings, wish I could have a punt on the next SA election result but not even centrebet has anything up yet
GP back @ 279. You hadn’t noticed what Howard did with the Corporations Law? Rudd and Labor certainly have, and imo, implied in the cooperative federalism line, is that if the States don’t play nicely, they’ll be run over. Nice legacy of the Howard gov’t., that. The death of federation, effectively.
Unlike Malcolm Turnbull, who cares only for suffering humanity.
Anyone who thinks Anna Bligh will lose the next Qld election is deranged. Labor holds 59 out of 89 seats and with the member for nicklin make that 60.
So to get to 45 the LNP needs to win 16 seats. A bridge too far in a single election.
But all good Taoists know that the way that can be found is not the way! How do you know if you know yourself or know the other/enemy? Maybe ignorance is bliss and people should just follow their Buddha nature?
Adam in Canberra. Surely, you must mean Emo Man? Malcolm cares only for his own ambition, but Brendon (sitting in the gutter at 3am, Tarago with 5 kids and the wheelchair in the back), he’s the real deal.
Labor has a notional 12 seat majority here in SA. One Independent is retiring and I would say his seat will goto the Liberals. Also possible the National’s only seat could fall to the Liberal Party as well.
My prediction is SA was the last state to fall to Labor and will be the last to fall to the Liberals.
Yeah, just like in WA. There’s no way Labor could lose an election here.
No 337
If you’re referring to WorkChoices, the High Court ruled that the legislation was constitutional. Let it be clear that Rudd is not qualified to interpret the constitution.
No 339
Rubbish. The ALP required 16 seats to win federally in 2007. It got them.
Disasterboy @ 343. Obviously that was not what Ruawake was saying. It is quite clear that he was pointing out that the seat gap is quite considerable and would be difficult to achieve in a single election.
Let’s see if the Fibs have got the guts to run with Work”Choices” (or whatever it will be called then) in the next federal election.
If they don’t run openly with it as their central policy, I guess Labor will just have to make a point of explaining to the voters the situation re the Fibs and IR.
I concede. And rightly so.
GP @344. It’s how the High Court has interpreted the Law which is precisely the point.
GP
The High Court clarified the Corporations Power in the Constitution, it applies to all incorporated entities. It was nothing to do with No-Choices although that was the reason to HC was asked to rule.
Howard handed power over ALL those lovely sham Pty Ltd entities to Rudd, ooops.
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