As most of you would be aware by now, Malcolm Turnbull has won the Liberal leadership after defeating Brendan Nelson 45 votes to 41. Nelson won the post-election vote 45 votes to 42: not sure where the missing vote went (UPDATE: Kevin Andrews was overseas and didn’t vote – hat-tip to Dovif in comments).
Also:
• The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead back at 58-42 after a fortnight at 59-41. Also included are questions on approval of Kevin Rudd, the future of the Coalition and federalism.
• Peter Brent asks what became of the government’s green paper on disclosure, funding and expenditure issues, which was due in July.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published comments on objections to the redistribution of Western Australian electorates.
• Bryan’s back.
793 Comments
That ‘new link’ thread on the old post didn’t seem to work for me William… not a proper hyperlink?
yep… same for me MR B
Nelson probably abstained from voting. lol
Thanks Dario, working now.
It’s the narrowing.
Costello?
WB, just love your new “send-off” system. two yellow cards then the red card. It would be great if we can actually the “yellow card” next to the gravatar so we get to know who is the naughty boy or girl. yep, it’s the World Game.
Hi William,
Love the new site. Congratulations. Boy, the traffic seems to have picked up to some degree too.
It seems quite clear after the National Press club address that Costello is intent on leaving all options open to him to get drafted into the leadership if conditions prove favourable to a Liberal return to government and a failure of Turnbull to cut through.
So really, no change in the dynamics of the Liberal Party at all. Fasten the seatbelts, the ride is going to be full of surprises, ie, no change from the status quo.
After watching Peter Costello’s performance at the Press Club today and in particular his surly, defensive and petulant responses to questions regarding his past lack of fortitude and current self indulgence, it has only reinforced my lack of opinion of him.
Like many others, I suspect, I gave Peter Costello the benefit of the doubt regarding his fortitude for not taking on the position of Prime Minister and taking the fight to John Howard to get it, if required. Despite some obvious indicators to the contrary, I accepted that he was being a team player and didn’t want to destabilise the party. So I thought that maybe there’s more to Costello than meets the eye.
But alas, I was wrong. Having watched his behaviour this last year and especially this last week leaves only one conclusion – More than meets the eye? No there’s less. Peter Costello is a mirage wrapped in a delusion inside a vacuum.
I noticed that the President of the National press Club was conspicuous by his absence. Probably in mourning draped over the casket of Costello’s leadership aspirations.
Like I said, nothing has changed. Especially after watching Cossie at NPC. PJK was was absolutely right. Cossie is simply lazy. He does not want to do the hard work as the Opp Leader. He wants other to take the hits and pains of an OL. he simply wants to waltz in just before the election, smirk and hope to win the election. It will not happen, the punters are too intelligent for that trick.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/dont-count-costello-out/2008/09/16/1221330797051.html
Aristotle, you got it in one there. The overwhelming majority of people in Australia came to the same conclusion long ago also. The Polls didn’t lie. People weren’t prepared to accept a shallow, inferior, insincere, Keating pretender.
@ 12 The Finneghans
“……..the punters are too intelligent for that trick.”
Surely you jest. In general the voting public is so uninformed in regard to political matters that our ‘democracy’ borders on a farce.
Sorry, Rolly, I have to disagree wholeheartedly with that proposition.
If you look at the Polls from the middle of 2006 right through, there is the lowest percentage of “undecided”, “non-committed” voters for an extremely long time.
The fact that the Polls have been so consistent for so long, is a clear indication that the general voting public have re-engaged with the political debate to a level not seen for many years.
John Howard himself said that it would indeed be a foolish person to underestimate the intelligence and engagement of the Australian people.
They sure were engaged enough to throw his government out and his electorate had no problem in dispatching him to the dustbin of history also.
Costello = all tip…
No 15
I might remind you that Maxine did not win on primaries. If it wasn’t for the greens, Howard would be on the back bench.
What’s your point? She DID win
GP
Surely in your previously stated 30 years of studying elections you realise we have a preferential voting system?
No 16,
And if it wasn’t for the Nationals, Family First and others, there would be a number of current Coalition Members watching proceedings in the Parliament at home on their plasma TV’s at this very moment.
GP
Did Hammock say at the Press Club today that The Nats would have lost Gippsland if the Libs did not stand a candidate?
16 GP, pining for a more stable past after this morning’s vote are we? Can’t blame you really the Liberals have built a lot of instability into the system by having such a divided vote in the Party room today.
By the way, if anyone has been watching the committee deliberations about the amendments to the TPA 1974, the Government has absolutely no idea what the hell it is doing. George Brandis SC is murdering them.
Scorpio 19
Can you name the seats you are talking about?
I am counting Costello out, just too much baggage
Scorpio 15
I think when a prime minister was in parliament for so many years -12 years, people make a decision about him and Howard has enough baggage, that everyone had made the decision about him, his use by date was gone
He just did not know about it
Peter did claim the Liberals helped the Nationals win in Gippsland, I was surprised by that remark for I was under the impression the Nations improved their primary vote and I would image a large amount of the 20% would have gone to the Nationals had the Liberals not stood.
BTW
Did any ex nat members of the pineapple party vote?
If not why not dammit
mexicanbeemer
I guess Hammock No1 was wrong, not really a surprise.
I will always connect Malcolm Turnbull with market slumps. Hi sold firm isn’t faring that well at present.
The slump should sink the GOP Dukes of Hazzard. The economy being McC’s achilles.
But to be fair Kevin, September/October is always the hurricane season of share markets. The rule has always been to buy shares in February/March and bail out in August.
@ 15 scorpio
“If you look at the Polls from the middle of 2006 right through, there is the lowest percentage of “undecided”, “non-committed” voters for an extremely long time.”
That is true but it misses the point: Involvement does not infer that the punters have a sound, informed basis on which they are forming their opinions.
Rather, the contrary: It infers that rhetoric, deliberate manipulation by disinformation and reliance on popular news media as a foundation on which to form ones opinion, have distorted popular perceptions of ‘reality’ to a point of fantasy.
In case one should be tempted to accuse me of political bias toward one party or another, I wish to make it quite clear that I am heavily prejudiced against all of them.
I have a strong allegiance to honesty and the principle of a “fair go”; which puts me into a very small minority grouping.
Irrelevant, a loss is a loss. We have PV and that’s that. Most people preferred Maxine over Howard. I wonder how many seats the Libs won in WA on the back of preferences? Do they count?
Don’t be silly. Only ALP pref wins are null and void… everybody knows that…
So how is Turnbull getting on in QT so far?
QT over.
I think Turnbull asked one question.
A couple of easy questions to Rudd and some polite answers.
That is until Swan brought up “$20 billion spent by Howard in 20 minutes.”
dovif, how about,
Swan
Cowan
Stirling
Wentworth
Mcmillan
Boothby
For starters, but you could come up with an even bigger list of Labor seats won on preferences which means that any suggestion that McKew winning Bennelong by default because of a favourable preference flow has as much substance as inferring that the Coalition seats won on preferences is somehow different.
The seats were won by the incumbent members, end of story. Its like the feeble argument that if 10,000 voters had voted differently, then we would be still referring to PM Howard.
It didn’t happen similar to 1998 when Labor gained the majority of the 2PP vote. Howard retained Government because Beasley wasn’t able to pick up enough marginal Coalition seats. He got instead, an increased 2PP in safe Labor seats and picked up a considerable number of Lib marginals, but not enough.
Grasping at straws doesn’t change the end result. As a number of Lib spokespersons have already conceded, they got hammered on November, 24th, 2007.
“Spent by Turnbull” I’m sorry
Anyone know if a new Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs is in the mix? The googler, Andrew Robb has been one of the standout underachievers of the Nelson experiment.
The Googler is being tipped to be shadow treasurer, but given the mile wide grin on Pyne and the look of shock on Robb’s face, who knows.
Re: the missing vote, didn’t Cossie allow a member who went on to lose their seat vote in the previous ballot?
Patrick, the other distinct possibility is that a Queensland Lib was just too lazy to show up. Was Senator Boyce sighted today?
Rolly @ 30,
Sorry, but your argument doesn’t make any sense.
The “deliberate manipulation by disinformation and distortion” that you refer to was endemic throughout the MSM leading up to the last election and was designed to shore up and improve support for the Coalition and undermine Kevin Rudd. Surely you remenber the campaign re Burke, Scores, Rudd’s family history, Julia Gillard being cowardly attacked by numerous lowlifes etc.
Even with all that support the Coalition still couldn’t win and the Polls show that people made a concious decision to disregard that MSM manipulation and throw their support behind Labor. They are still t6hrowing their support behind Labor and Rudd is continuing to achieve record approval ratings and PPM levels.
This electorate are certainly “NOT” disengaged.
My view is the media can re-enforce a rusted on opinion, but not change opinion. If the reader agrees they think yep that’s correct. If they disagree they say that’s bull butter.
Never underestimate the basic common sense of the punter. They know if they are being screwed and will react accordingly.
That is why Howard’s “Never been better off” statement was such a huge gaffe.
Dario, Turnbull asked the first several questions and in relation to the Lehmann Brothers bankruptcy. The rest of the questions from their side, I think without exception (?) [I don't count Joe's interjections
] came from backbenchers today. From what I’ve seen of previous question times though, Abbott was unusually quiet. Not a peep out of him, most unusual. The last QT I was at, Abbott got booted from the chamber for one hour for backchatting the speaker 
……
I think this change can only improve things for the Liberals and in a weird way will be good for Labor in the long run too. Nobody is helped by a too weak opposition and it just leads to lazy government. Turnbull will keep Rudd on his toes.
At the same time, this change is good for the nation. Now the conservative forces are on the outer on both sides of politics. Issues like climate change and an Australian republic will get bipartisan support, which means there will be a debate about the substance – how to do them – rather than silly attempts to put off the inevitable. I can at least respect Nelson for bringing it to a head; his best decision as leader.
Scorpio at 36, these are the seats you mentioned
Swan – Lib 44.3% leads all parties, FF 0.8%, Nats 0%, ALP did better on preferences by 3.4%
Cowan – Lib 45.8% PV leads all parties, FF 1.7%, Nats 0%, ALP did better on preference by 0.4%
Stirling – Lib 47.2% leads all parties, FF 0.6%, Nat 0%, ALP did better on preferences by 4.2%
Wentworth – Lib 50.4% wins out rights, FF 0.3% Nat 0%, ALP did better on preferences by 12.1%
Mcmillan – Lib 49.9%, FF 2.9% Nats 0% ALP did better on preferences by 2.2%
Boothby Lib 46.2% leads all parties, FF 2.4% Nat 0%, ALP did better on preferences by 6.3%
FF + Nat’s vote was less than 0.8% in 3 of the 6 seats and less than 3% in all of them
Preferences hinders the Liberals in all of those seat you mentioned
In 2 of the seats you mentioned did not go to preferences,
The Liberals had a primary vote lead of over 10% in 4 of those seats,
so I do not know how you can claim that preferences from the Nationals and Family First helped the Liberal “win” those seats
If you are mentioning every seat that Liberal did not get 50% of the votes, you will need to include about 70 of the ALP seats on the same list. But our electoral system does not work on a 50% rule
Big call, Turnbull could easily be worse than Brenda. He has not be a spectacular success in any political sense.
I should add that I am glad that Rudd has hosed down some of the more hyperbolic reporting of the Lehmans crash in the media. Yes they are big failures, yes it is bad management, but while the US economy is headed for recession, ours is probably not, unless people believe all this stuff and panic.
The rhetoric of financial reporting here is a little over the top. Markets have “plummeted” (-2.4%) been “hammered”, and are “exposed”. The fact is that the bank exposures here are such that even our worst offenders (NAB and ANZ) will still announce profits. Apart from a few small firms (Aussie Home Loans, Centro, perhaps Babcock and Brown) there have been few Australian casualties. Given that most of our trade is with China/India, not the US, we shouldn’t overreact to this. A lot of financiers are having to face much more realistic (lower) salary prospects, but that isn’t a bad thing.
Ruawake
You may be right; I don’t think Turnbull is a genius, certainly not on economics. But Nelson has been perceived so poorly that his confidence must be shot, so any change is probably an improvement in the short term. I agree there is still a lot of Howard dead wood to sift out before the Liberals are a serious threat.
I think this is going to flow right through every segment of the Australian economy.
Everyday Aussies with superannuation or rollovers are going to get hammered.
My rollover lost over $11,000 last financial year and I bet it has lost that much or more since 1st July, 2008 with 9 and a half Months to go till 30th June, 2009.
Bank and Financial Institution shares are going to cop a big hit which will translate through to super & investments. Not looking very promising at the moment at all.
I conceded that.
Your argument is just going around in circles. Preferences make a difference. That is the nature of our 2PP system.
The point I was making was that Maxine and everyone else who won a seat at the election, did it under our current electoral system. Fairly and squarely.
Online Poll in the Oz. Should be worth following over the next 12 hours or so.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Caroline Overington is having an orgasm over on her blog.
After all the work she put in to get her beloved Malcolm elected last year, she probably thinks that almost loosing her job over it was worth every bit of the enforced sin binning by Uncle Rupert.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/he_rises/
Why? Online polls are about as useful as my mother-in-law
Julie Bishop as shadow treasurer? She may see Swannee as a softer target than Julia.
After poor old malcom fails to make any inroads to the alp’s lead in the opinion polls who is next? Abbott, bishop, they may as well give ironbar tuckey a go for all the good it will do them.
Ironbar would be entertaining, that’s for sure!
In the short interval before he hammered you.
Lindsay Tanner had a good quip to ironbar today, “When you get a sense of humour, I will start telling jokes”.
he’d do more far more damage to the Libs lol
Interesting day! trust the Australian media to talk up the 2% fall on the ASX as a plummet when CNBC is reported that we have come out of today as the best performer within the Asian region in terms of size of falls.
Todays Question was Interesting for last night I raised several possible questions and they were asked not but the Opposition but by members of the Government and the responses from PM Rudd and Wayne Swan were well put.
The Government comes out of today looking soild, Malcolm Turnbull now needs to show what he is made off, Costellos performance at the NPC was as per-normal for him, he has one thing going for him and that is a good sense of humour, I wasn’t impressed that he couldn’t or wouldn’t confront the issue of why he never took Howard on.
That line from Lindsay Tanner was a cracker!
One thing the Libs need to do is improve their media management, Talcum should lay down the law and say to his front bench – “You talk about your portfolio responsibilities” – off topic and you will be joining Hammock No1 and Hammock No2 on the backbench.
Dario, you seem a bit prickly today. Lighten up, the world is not coming to an end soon. I hope?
Of course these Polls can be an object of ridicule, but they can also be a source of what some segments are thinking and can also be amusing.
Scopio
From the view of the “current” right hand side of Australian politics, 1 vote on the Green = 1 vote for the ALP
ALP keep moving to the right and the Green keep taking votes from the ALP Left. the Green is now the left hand wing of the ALP. But the ALP knows that the Greens will never vote against them, so the Green’s agenda will never be the ALP’s agenda, no matter how far the ALP moves.
Soon the ALP might be further right than the Turnbull Liberals and the Greens might just blindly follow them to the right.
The issue is not with the ALP, they are doing what is in their best interest. The question to the Green is that how do they get their agenda met? If they continue to be the left wing of the ALP, somewhere down the road, people will see that and find another potest party or another balance of power party.
And if they do not maintain their independance – ie follows a inept ALP government, for example in NSW, then people will start losing interest in them or see them as part of the ALP.
A political power only have power if they can do things their constituency wants, by being tied to the ALP, the greens cannot get that. Because the ALP knows the Greens won’t vote with anyone else
The WA National party have real power, because they can threaten to block both Liberal and ALP legislations and they can do something for their constituency. The Democrats did the same
The Greens will only be able to do that, if they break the link with the ALP. Whether they are just a faze depends on that
dovif
The Greens ended a Labor Govt. in Qld.
Ergo – your analysis is wrong.
I thought I was prickly every day!
65 “The WA National party have real power, because they can threaten to block both Liberal and ALP legislations and they can do something for their constituency.”
dovif, you crack me up with your conservative wit. Threats don’t mean a thing in politics as you well know, the Nationals will vote against the Liberals the day after hell freezes over and the day following that the Nats can do something for their constituency. Don’t hold your breath.
dovif,
I have been involved in the Labour movement for a long time and I think you will find that an awful lot of the older Members of the Greens originally came from the Socialist Left of the ALP.
I know many of them and stand beside them at polling booths and it would be an absolute impossibility for them to direct any support to the Libs.
The younger Greens however, aren’t as rusted on to green or environmental issues and see no problem with directing preferences to the Libs. ie WA & Qld and even a number of Labor & Coalition seats in the last Federal election where the preference flows to Labor were well under the average for all electorates.
Wow the ASX 200 fell by 1.5% If Talcum thinks this will be of concern to “Working Families – Pensioners and Carers” he has rock in his head.
Oil down to $94 a barrel, so do we still need the 5c excise reduction?
I find the whole 2PP issue interesting. It is pretty clear that the ALP do rely on preferences from Green voters. If we had a first past the post system instead, the ALP would have missed out on 9 seats last time around (Bennelong; Page; Robertson; Corangamite; Deakin; Hasluck; Bass; Braddon and Solomon). Its particualrly the case in Bass, where the ALP was well behind on primaries but the Greens vote is huge.
We’d then have a hung parliament and the truly nightmarish scenario of Bob Katter holding the balance of power.
I heart 2PP.
(Ruawake @ 21 cracked me up)
All this movement in the Liberal Party suggests a lot of senior MPs sense they’re a lot closer to being PM now than they were 1-2 years ago. Can anyone really blame them?
With Climate Change coming of age as an issue and the Libs all over the place on it, I think you may see the younger Greens begin to follow their more senior counterparts.
If we had a first past the post system you might find that plenty of Greens voters would not vote Green knowing that their preference would not flow to Labor. By the way, did the Libs/Nats win any seats as a result of prefs where they did not lead the ALP on primaries?
The electoral system we have is what it is, it will not change in the foreseeable future. So get used to it.
Hammock No1’s comments today are probably correct, the best way to maximise the conservative vote is to run 3 cornered contests – except where optional preferential voting applies.
If the Libs are looking to improve their media management it’d help if the leadership group was reading from the same songbook – we have Malcolm attacking Rudd’s ‘policy recklessness’ while his deputy is harping on about Rudd being ‘all talk and no action’. Well, what’s it gonna be then? (Yeah, I know that ‘recklessness’ could refer to inaction, but that’s not how it comes across. And anyway, it wouldn’t surprise if many voters are sick and tired of politicians with their confected rage/ hairy chest beating (sorry Julie) and are actually relieved that the studious one is quietly going about his job waiting for the reports of his thousand and one expert committees before jumping in at the deep end.)
A lot of us in Tasmania came from the United Tasmania Group – Google it. And you’re correct. Even though I don’t belong to any party now – and never will again – I can’t see myself encouraging anyone to preference Liberal, normally.
But it always disappoints me to see people say they are lifelong and rusted-on Lib or Lab voters. It implies they aren’t willing to think. I did once vote Lib in Tasmania, and they lost.
I hope that you are right about that but they didn’t seem to think things through too much in WA the other day.
Greens preferences have resulted in a shambolic coalition of sorts in WA which has opened the door to uranium mining there now.
I see so many people praise the wonders of nuclear power and the benefits to Australia from uranium mining but they should talk to some of the people who have been directly involved in the industry.
I met a gentleman recently who worked at Mary Kathleen for a number of years. He has had treatment three times for various cancers and currently has about 100 tumors inside his body. Most of his workmates are deceased. Cancer!
How can they support an industry such as this and expose their fellow Australians to such a terrible fate.
I am aware that in Liberal heartland seats like Kooyong that many childern of Liberal supporters are moving towards the Green because of Climate change and the position the Greens have taken on several policy areas these people may overtime return to their roots as Liberal supporters which is why the ALP will struggle to win seats like Kooyong, Higgins and Wentworth!
While I have a question mark over Malcolm Turnbulls ability as a campaigner I’m of the view that this might be the best thing the Liberal Party have done.
While my money is still on Rudd winning a second term, I’m not so sure he will radically increase he margin unless the Liberal Party continue to carry on.
The next election will be about
Economy & Climate Change
I wonder if the FPP system is part of what makes the US more conservative than Australia. You could imagine an unaided ALP having to shift to the right in order to compete in situations such as Grant 71’s.
Meanwhile, lap one of the velodrome sprint is near complete and Nelson has forced Turnbull to reclaim the lead. It’s all strategy from here on in. Who will be the first to make a move?
Quite so, Dario @ 74. How many of the people who voted Greens in Bennelong would have done so if it meant throwing away a chance to defeat Howard? Would the Greens even have run? Note how the term “tactical voting” has entered the British lexicon, but not ours.
One thing about Peter Costello talking about the Victorian experiance of three cornered contest helping the Liberals, and I’m happy to hear Adam’s view but I’m sure on of the factors behind the ALP winning the 1988 State election was that there were several three cornered contest.
I know Sir Henry Bolte won many elections without a joint Liberal-National party ticket, historically in Victoria the National Party have not always gone with the Liberal or before that the United Australian Party
In 1935 after the UAP won the election they required Country Party support but Albert Dunstain choose to approach the ALP and made himself preimer a position he held for seven years.
Labor in WA might get a better and fairer coverage in their one and only daily.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24354321-601,00.html
William, I suspect the Greens are too proud to be seen to surrender their interests for the benefit of Labor, a la Nader in 2004.
Generally speaking the TPR system only changes a handful of seats for while many seats go to preferences usually the primary vote leader goes on to win.
Re Scorpio @ 78:
How do you figure Greens preferences have caused this?????
“Tactical voting” – Queensland has moved way past there with Jeff Seeney, Member for Callide producing “tactical lying” to swing voters his way.
http://www.pollbludger.com/qld2006/qld2006.htm
luke,
Have a look at the seats that the Libs won with the help of Green preferences.
They didn’t preference Labor in every seat they ran in.
They only needed to win two on Green preferences to enable the current arrangement to eventuate.
Turnbull will be cannon fodder for Rudd. I think Costello could put up a fight but he has no ticker.
As I mentioned in the WA THread, it seems The West are now aiming their guns at The Nationals for threatening to scuttle City Based projects and promises by the Libs in favour of their Royalties for Regions policy.
I predict the West will blame Brendon Grylls and The Nationals for everything under the sun if anything goes wrong.
My prediction. Turnbull will make Nelson look like a pro. Just like Costello…”all tip & no iceberg”!!! Remember this.
This could be interesting. Swan will have to watch out that he doesn’t get sent to the “naughty corner”.
I bet Nelson is grateful he had such a loyal deputy.
A monastic “jock strap” I presume. Turnbull would want to keep a close eye on Abbott during his tenure too.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24355512-601,00.html
Scorpio,
The Greens did not preference the Libs above the ALP in any seats in this State Election.
The Greens did go “open” preferences in Pilbara, Kimberley and Cockburn all of which went to the ALP. The only other preference decision to cause angst among ALP supporters was Kwinana which went to the ALP anyway.
If what you mean is that voters who voted for the Greens first did not always follow the preference recommendation on the Greens HTV … we can hardly be held responsible for that!
Hurray for Julie, if all the reports are true….
Nelson didnt consult Julie on the leadership vote either, i guess he didnt trust her. It really was a hail mary pass and it didnt work.
I heart 1 past the post! No more small single issue groups deciding election outcomes.
Tuckey last night was brilliant though you had to admit it….’that’s my business, what’s ya next question’!
Looks like after the close ballot last year for the leadership, that she kept her options open for a Turnbull ascendancy.
Seems quite keen to dodge the IR portfolio. I wonder why?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24355512-601,00.html
Robin Chapple elected for the Greens in Mining and Pastoral.
That’s a good pay-off for all those lovely Green preferences. Can’t see how he or she can stave off the uranium mining though?
luke
Who cares, WA has 9.9% of the population and 14% of the nations GSP. They only need another $200 billion per year to catch NSW.
I am sick of hearing that WA is the engine room of the Oz economy, it is bull butter.
Or maybe GSP per capita is the favoured measure – except the ACT and NT are a squillion miles ahead.
WA the state of irrelevance.
“Peerless”, spare me. I wonder what she’s on?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/he_rises/
And this man wanted to lead the country as PM? Spare me!
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/force_of_nature_promises_a_wild_ride/
I wonder if Turnbull can get the Lib PPM up to the 37% base support. There should be no way that he can reach Nelson’s 7% PPM figure. Or is there?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24336685-5017906,00.html
Oh well now we will have to get used to the murdoch pushing Turnbull as the Messiah for the next six months or will they sulk because their boy Costello will not play in the sandpit ………………. or will he? cue scary music.
Any change will bring a bounce. But how much and for how long?
Probably a “dead cat” bounce.
Something that intrigued me this afternoon was that Bob Brown was a prominent member of the audience at Costello’s Press Club book launch.
Maybe he is planning to write his memoirs while still in the Parliament like Costello and wanted to get a few pointers as to how to go about the publicity side of it?
Dario @ 74
No, the Libs and Nats were leading in primaries in all the seats they won and so would have won in first past the post. However, there weren’t many seats with three cornered contests, and all of them appeared (from a glance) to be VERY conservative seats (such as O’Connor where Tuckey had 45% of the primary and only needed a small slice of Nats preferences to win).
The one seat where the Nats could potentially in future benefit from preference flows would be Kennedy. If the ALP played dead and preferenced the Nats, they could easily roll Katter.
Daniel B @ 84
I tend to think US politics is more conservative because of all the bat-shit crazy evangelicals living there.
Glen @ 94
I wonder if you might change your tune if the Family First vote ever picks up? Of course, were it not for 2PP, the Libs would not have picked up Morley last weekend.
IMO 2PP is the most democratic system available, and something Australians should be proud of.
Scorpio,
Spears and his sidekick were both in the press gallery this afternoon until about 2:40pm …… was a bit surprised to see so many media there (well given the events of the day, perhaps not) but I think that Costello probably was looking at a lot of empty chairs today at the NPC as I counted (at the height of QT) about 4 dozen folks in the press gallery.
Latest idiot poll from ninemsn:
Will having Turnbull as Liberal leader change your vote?
Yes 16601 (28%)
No 41888 (72%)
Change your vote to what exactly?
Stupid ninemsn, makes me so cross. Must change my homepage.
No 99
David Speers is peerless. A great young journalist. Certainly better than the piffle coming from the likes of commies David Marr, Phillip Adams or Alan Ramsey.
There will always be a religious conservative vote, One Nation enlarged this for a while but it has subsided to become FF and CDP.
They are entitled to vote and preference whom ever they like. Just as everyone else is.
If we had a first past the post system we would have two parties, maybe a third minor.
At least in our system you can vote 1 for the guys you really want and 2 for the guys or gals who have a chance of being elected.
Surely this is the better way to go?
Actually, ruawake, I doubt if One Nation appealed to too many Christians (outside of Qld anyway).
CDP was around before One Nation, and will, in my opion, be around well after FF is gone.
GP
Can you explain what you mean by commies?
scorpio @ 100,
Didn’t Hawke cry too?
Or does it only matter when Liberals do it?
No 111
My position on communism is well known.
Well, what a day in paradise, fellow bludgers. A day when as H.G. Nelson might say, too much politics isn’t nearly enough Next lot of polls will be interesting n’est ce pas?
dyno
If you look at recent elections the fall in ON votes is almost identical to the rise in FF and CDP votes.
Let me guess, you think it’s an alternative to the theory of evolution?
Even though Turnbull will be better than Nelson, I’m not convinced he’ll be all that great.
Apart from anything else he’s a bit of a typical barrister – likes winning arguments (or trying to do so) for the sake of it. Not what the public seems to want out of its political leaders these days.
I think I might get some money on J Bishop to lead the Libs to the next election – Malcolm’s been forced to make his run too early I’d say.
GP
You use the term often but I would like to hear your definition in a contemporary Australian context?
Or are you talking of a Menzies era??
dyno @ 112,
Sure did, but not from memory when he lost the leadership.
Granted, he wasn’t terribly pleased about it at the time.
Put it this way, ruawake, I know a lot of Christians (being one myself). Amongst the Christians I know ON has aroused by far the most strident views – against it, of course.
I’d say the phenomenon you refer to is coincidence.
One caveat though: it could be different in Qld!
dyno
You may be correct. My view may be Qld skewed.
Great day’s entertainment alright, Harry.
Fasten your seat belt. It’s going to be an interesting ride.
“Amongst the Christians I know ON has aroused by far the most strident views – against it, of course.”
To clarify this comment – ON has aroused far more strident views (anti) than any other party has.
At least Hawke was PM for quite some time. What is Nelson crying about? 10 months flailing about as Opp leader???
I think Turnbull will make politics much more interesting.
Good timing, should fill the gap after the US elections are over.
# 123 Dyno,
“To clarify this comment – ON has aroused far more strident views (anti) than any other party has.”
I am certainly pleased to hear that
I don’t think it will take that long, Dyno. Harry, I think you will appreciate this.
{“Never mind all that stuff about the so-called roosters; when they chose Latham, the turkeys voted for Christmas,” one Labor man said.
It’s hard to imagine the same conclusion from today’s vote – although that’s not to say that Turnbull’s leadership is not expected to deliver some of the wild highs and lows that was Latham’s signature. The pair share certain characteristics, a touch of brilliance, strong performances in parliament and some fatal character flaws. Like Latham, history may still judge Turnbull came to the leadership too early.
Turnbull surprised some observers today with his own log cabin story to rival Mr Latham’s pitch, dismissing suggestions he is a silver tail with talk of growing up in a single parent family and in “rented flats”. ]
And Abbott’s take on Turnbull.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/force_of_nature_promises_a_wild_ride/
runawake and dyno
Having lived in Queesnland all my life I can fairly confidently say that religion doesn’t seem to factor in the politics here, particularly at the state level.
The CDP have been around in Queensland for a lot longer than One Nation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if most Queenslander’s didn’t even know they existed. Family First were thrashed by the Greens in almost seat they both ran in at the last election (and Family First only ran in the most conservative of areas).
The One Nation rise here seemed to be much less about the “Christian politics” thing and much much more about the “I don’t like them Asians” thing. Of course, this was dressed up as “dissatisfaction with the major parties.” Their vote has not gone to Family First at all, instead its just gone straight back to the Nationals, with the exception of Dorothy Pratt (former One Nation from Joh country) and Rosa Lee Long, who both still comfortably hold their seats.
I reckon if Julie did swing some votes Malcolms way, she’s got a chance of the Shadow Treasury
Scorpio, did enjoy that. Did you see the 4 Corners segment on Turnbull? He might just need that barrister/bovver boy characteristic of bullying people into submission within the LNP, if he is to prevail for any length of time. However, where I’d like to be a fly on the wall, is a confrontation between Malcolm in full flight and Mesmerelda. Who’d blink first? Sniggle.
Abbott may well be correct about Turnbull being a “force of nature”. He’s been described as a volcano. I suppose that means he’s liable to erupt at the drop of a hat?
But I wanted to comment, not on Turnbull, but on Abbott. Seriously, what is the guy still doing there? His best days (Cabinet minister) are behind him, he’s been in parliament since the Year Dot. What has he got to contribute? He’s unlikely ever to become Liberal leader (and god help them all should it ever happen).
I get the feeling he’s just seat warming, “doing” politics because there’s nothing else he ~can~ do. Stuck in a rut much? He should do a Downer, get out with some dignity intact. His departure would help the Liberals too with their wish for “clear air”: he just serves as a constant reminder of the spiteful failed old Howard era.
Grant
Surely you jest? Ever heard of a guy called Dickson? Ever been to Gympie?
Cuppa,
I’m pretty sure Abbott sees himself totally as a career politician – he’s been in politics (firstly of the student variety) since he was about twenty I think.
I don’t think his inability to ever be leader will stop him wanting to be in politics.
He’s actually not that old (about 50 I think). So it’s conceivable (sort of) that he could yet become a Cabinet Minister again.
Glen
If Ms Mesmer wants to be shadow treasurer its her for the taking, as deputy dawg she gets to choose.
She let Malcolm have the job before – and thought she would take on Julia, bad move.
Ms Mesmer will be the next shadow treasurer. Did you see her and Robb today, they would not look at each other and sat cross legged as far apart as possible.
ruawake #118
I hope you were standing to attention when you typed THE GREAT MAN’S name. Otherwise you know who will be getting your communist tendencies noted in your ASIO file.
ruawake,
I have been to Gympie but have thankfully repressed much of this from my memory.
To be absolutely honest, I cannot state with any certainty how much an individual member’s Christian credentials might come into play in an individual (and particualrly rural) seat. But Christian credentials certainly aren’t something that come into play in the larger scheme of things.
Being that I am currently residing in the seat of one Ms Anna Bligh, religion certainly hasn’t been an issue. I have previously been in seats held by both Peter Beattie and Mike “Waste of Space” Horan. Religion wasn’t an issue in either of those seats as well.
Turnbull has had careerrs as a journalist, lawyer, banker and now politician. All these professions rank near the bottom re trustworthiness in all the surveys about various professions.
He also managed to screw up the Republican Referendum despite most people being broadly in favour of same.
He is now the new Messiah for the Libs?
Smoking and inhaling comes to mind.
Cuppa, I think dyno’s right. I doubt Abbott would know what else to do other than politics. Costello may have had some fantasy about being welcomed with flowers and pots of money into the big wide world of finance, though that’s come to nought, it would seem, and really the way the big wide world of finance is travelling these days, maybe he’d be too scared to jump ship? But Abbott, what’s he going to fantasize about? Being feted to join the Cistercians with a hair shirt and small cell?
Hey GG, this is for your little puppy:
When you were a young boy did you have a puppy
That always followed you around
Well Im gonna be as faithful as that puppy
No Ill never let you down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KkMSkmx7sM
yeah it’s River Deep, Mountain High today for Malcolm but how long will it last?
Fair enough guys, that’s what I assumed: he’s there because politics is the only thing he can do. Oh well, as long as the voters in his electorate are happy with the work he does for them.
Still, he is a visible and audible reminder of the nasty Howard years. By that I mean he’s always in the media … still! I can’t see how he does the Liberals any good in acquiring new voters. His net sum gain would have to be neutral or negative.
Oh dear the Talcum myth explodes from his own mouth. My father struggled to send me, as a boarder, to Sydney Grammar and he struggled to pay the fees.
So his battler, living in a small Vaucluse flat is crud, he lived as a boarder in St Ives and later in Darlinghurst.
He then went to Uni (fee free – thanks to Gough)
Fool.
How long before the LP talking-point-meisters start characterising Mal the Hutt as a “maverick”?
ruawake
love him or loathe him mate… he’s no fool
Spam Inbox
He is no politician either. His first presser was full of crap. It will come back to bite him on the bum.
Spam Inbox – you are right. However, he was too dopey not to follow Nifty’s advice and join the ALP.
There’s a point how long is it since we have had a Federal Liberal Opposition Leader who is more socially liberal than most ALP MPs replacing one who was once a member of the ALP?
No 143
Absolutely correct. Unlike the public school crusaders, most parents value the best education they can provide for their children. If that includes mortgaging the house or taking a second job to send their kid to a private school, then so be it. How dare faceless thugs condemn people for making that choice.
True, Spam Inbox, he’s no fool. However, going on the attack on Labor about the U.S. banking woes as a diversionary tactic about the republic issue, is pretty predictable, I would have thought. As though anyone thinks U.S. banking ineptitude and incompetence has anything to do with the Fed. gov’t..
Finns,
Here’s my dedication to Nelson. No doubt he is feeling like this tonight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDQaK14wsNM
William, I know it’s a stupid thing, but I still can’t get the gravatur to work on your blog, though it works on Possum’s. Is there some way in which rather than taking up space here, I could ask for help from Steve?
GP
I am a product of being a boarder at private schools, first King Edwards, Bath, England founded in 1552, then Canberra Grammar. I had a privelidged background.
The point is Turnbull tried at his presser to dispel the obvious fact that he came from a privelidged background. That is why he is a fool.
Why pretend to be something you are not?
albertross and herein lies the problem for Turnbull. The close vote today has sent the conservatives on this site into a spin. The tory bloggers don’t seem at all confident that the close vote today heralds good news for the Liberal Party, there was even disgruntlement that the vote was declared publicly.
They backpeddled once they realised that the Republican issue has once again been opened up. What would have been expected to be a day of great joy for Liberals everywhere seems to have slipped into a muted response of fear and dread. Interesting times to say the least.
GP,
You’re talking crap. Best education does not relate to how much you spend.
Maybe ruawake. but perhaps he’s getting rid of the whole “millionaire” thing now when it doesn’t matter. There will be debate about who’s got more, Rudd or Mal for awhile and that will pass, but you can bet the underlying impression will be one of that, he’s a self made millionaire (kinda handy in current economic climes) and whilst Rudd’s rich as well, his “wife” did that(so, we’re both rich, but I made mine)
Nice way to spend the first few cycles, neutralising a big image problem right from the get go
No 150
How are you privileged just because you lived in a fancy suburb, which is the flaky basis of your pathetic criticism of Turnbull?
RU, I see it as significant that he chose to talk about his “deprived” (cough) background as one of his first lines of speech upon becoming leader. Here’s the millionaire ex-banker, Australia’s richest pollie, hastening to inform all and sundry he’s of “humble” origins. Why would he do that? Polling telling him he’s got an image relate-ability problem perhaps?
If Malcolm is comfortable with his wealth and position in life, why is he trying so desperately hard to prove he isn’t a “silvertail”.
No 152
That is a matter of opinion. My argument is that one should not be so arrogantly pathetic to criticise a parent’s sacrifice for their child’s education.
GP – during most of his time at Grammar the school was something of a paedogogic backwater and not all that expensive. Trumbull’s pater sent him there because it took borders and was unlikely to turn him into a poove like most of the other eastern suburbs private schools.
No 156
He is trying to dispel myths that he was brought up with a silver spoon.
Western Suburbs’ professionals enjoying a combined household income of $150K? Aspirationals.
Millionaire merchant bankers? Battlers.
The homeless, the poor, the victims of entrenched unemployment and disadvantage? Losers.
The New Australia. (Thanks John.)
GP, nice to see you’ve turned from your Republican gravatar to one more appropriate for the stuff you write.
Harry S-O
Your gravatar shows on my screen as some little weightlifter thingy or something with raised shoulders etc… if that helps
No 160
Inner Westie, yet another dishonest assessment of the Howard years and Mr Turnbull.
He bit. Huh!
Marilyn on Samantha Maiden’s blog said it well in her take on Turnbull’s deprived childhood.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/force_of_nature_promises_a_wild_ride/
GP,
I don’t criticise any parent doing what they think is right for their children. However, I often think that it is more about the parents than the kids. It is just that a Private School Education is not something that I think is actually that useful or cost effective in the long run.
GP – so are you now in favour of Trumbill’s small-l liberal views?
No 165
Marilyn is a heinously misguided hack who frequently trolls the Australian’s boards.
GP – “misguided” as in bothers to go there at all…
Because he knows that he is perceived that way in the voters minds and it’s a negative… jesus can’t blame the guy for trying to negate that… ffs, I would be worried about him if he didn’t!
GP,
“Marilyn is a heinously misguided hack who frequently trolls the Australian’s boards”.
And, you are…………
GP – stick to the substantive questions… you are now in favour of non-discrimination against same-sex couples and the Republic. Or not?
HSO @ 130 – looks like it’s working to me. Maybe hitting Shift+Refresh will bring it up.
I’m expecting Labor to work hard on this perception of Turnbull, and by extension, the Fibs, as being out of touch, elitist etc. Coupled with a good IR scare going into the election, conjuring up images of wealthy employers ripping off emasculated workers, it could be quite effective.
No 172
I am a monarchist, as you know.
I have no problem with removing legal discrimination against same sex couples, but staunchly and steadfastly believe that marriage is between men and women only.
btw, if Marilyn is the one I read all over the place on various Oz blogs, I’m surprised she didn’t get Iraq, children overboard and SievX in there
She usually does
Crank….it’s a terrible drug
Spam Inbox,
The electorate sees a phony a mile off. Turnbull, for good or bad is what he is. Many Australians will actually admire the self made man “shtick”. Trying to prove he is a “good bloke” or a common man just ain’t gonna cut the mustard.
If he doesn’t know who he is, why should the voters trust his judgement?
I hope Turnbull doesn’t move the Liberal Party away from the traditional values set by Menzies and Howard. The Liberal Party must stay with the Howard and Menzies legacy to remain a competitive force.
The republic won’t be what does for Turnbull, not unless the Liberal Right really are determined that getting rid of him is more important than winning (in which case he’s probably stuffed, anyway).
After all, if Rudd actually gets around to organising a vote on the republic, Turnbull will just make it a conscience vote for the Libs, like Howard did in 99.
No 166
And if you’re a parent, I respect your choice not to send your child to a private school. Just don’t start saying he’s a useless toff because he went to a private school, when many parents of modest wealth often make the sacrifice.
[Marilyn is a heinously misguided hack}
168, is that because she has a different opinion and political leaning to you or is there some other reason you would say something like that?
Something we are unaware of, is she one of those dreaded commo's maybe?
I do in fact think there is a lot of substance in Trambell. His academic record is robust. He has a solid business resume (- the only real skeleton at the moment being HIH and the jury is not sworn in on that matter yet). His defence of freedom of speech is on the record. He is not out of the standard Liberal mould.
I give him 13 months.
No 181
Her political leaning is so much the issue as her intent to make every single article written at the Australian about how bad the Liberal party is. It is despicable.
“…many parents of modest wealth often make the sacrifice.”
Are you saying that people who send their children to state schools don’t make sacrifices for the children, GP? A weird argument that is repeated by supporters of private schools without thought.
GP @ 180,
Don’t think I have.
I think your class war hatreds are showing.
The one thing that Malcolm should never be forgiven for is the way that he sabotaged the Republican Referendum. He pushed for the model that Howard was willing to accept with an appointed rather than directly elected Head of State. It was well known that this was the model least likely to be accepted by the Australian people, and he pushed it anyway. The vote was not against a Republic per se, it was against what many saw as a flawed model. People wanted it, but it had to be done right.
Ok, thats ancient history now, but what does it say about Malcolm?
Either he really wanted a Republic and he showed massivley flawed judgment in achiveing that end that, which apparently was so dear to his heart.
Or he really didnt want it at all and his role was as inside spoiler.
Or maybe, he is just one of those who wants it all his way or no way, and bugger everyone else.
Not good qualities in a potential PM in a democracy.
Honest John,
I think alot of Liberal members have formed the view that Malcom T is a complete and utter banker.
Incidently, did anyone just watch Two Men and a Dinghy?
It was sheer bloody poetry
Forward and onwards to the 50’s. Yeah, that’ll do it!
No 184
No, I’m not saying that all. Those are your words.
albertross,
I agree with most of what you say, though I think Turnbull’s political judgment may be questionable.
13 months sounds about right to me.
No 185
Yes I despise class warfare that so often characterises arguments from those of left persuasion.
Did it ever occur to you that she might be right?
Sadly, Brendan Nelson will soon join his former leader as a Menzies’ Certified Forgotten Person. Still, there’s a couple of cosy seats up the back in the writers’ reserve (if he’s game to share pencils with a deluded egotist).
Did no one consider Christopher Pyne?
(It could’ve been fun. School kids could have learnt his accent!)
No 192
No, she isn’t right.
I despise class warfare that so often characterises arguments from those of RIGHT persuasion.
gg, love that one and big boy dont cry? but nelson did.
“Yes I despise class warfare…”
With a Union Jack as a Gravitar, GP, you have no idea how funny that comment appears.
what is the Howard Menzies legacy?
Sure is. He isn’t in the ALP. It’s actually his natural home. Just like many in the ALP should be in the Liberal Party. Jacinta Collins for starters.
No 195
And what’s that scorpio? The only class wars going on are those being pursued by the ALP on the floor of parliament.
Turnbull’s backpedalled on the republic, saying that another referendum shouldn’t be held until the Queen dies, to keep his party happy obviously
“what is the Howard Menzies legacy?”
High inflation, high interest rates and high balance of payment deficits.
[No, she isn’t right.}
I thought you were inferring she is on the "left", but apparently she is just not "right"?
we are all of us misguided hacks. But let us not be ashamed of it! (though I did pick Turnbull
)
No 199
LOL A merchant banker in the ALP? Goodness me albertross, that is just laughable. The ALP is about stealing people’s hard earned.
If Turnbull tries to straddle the fence during his leadership and slips, it could prove very painful in his nether regions.
Oh ffs
This may help – http://zapatopi.net/afdb/
No 202
Let me make a correction: zero net government debt, secure public finances with healthy surplus, very low unemployment, future fund, higher education endowment fund, 20% higher real wages, GST, much lower income tax. And so on.
The very real fact is that Mr “I don’t know what NAIRU means” Swan can take zero responsibility for the healthy state of the economy. His only claim to fame is increasing taxes.
Thomas Paine,
The Howard legacy? Let’s see … the most extreme IR laws in the western world. The worst levels of interest rate / mortgage stress in the world. Inflation the highest since the early 1990s. Biggest foreign debt in Australia’s history. Longest consecutive run of monthly trade deficits ever. One of the world’s highest per-capita spenders on propaganda. The highest levels of household and business debt ever seen in this country.
Oh, and zero productivity growth and poor household savings ratio for years on end. Great legacy that one.
Taxes rose overall as a percentage of GDP under Swan? Really?
Bullbutter
No 209
Howard isn’t responsible for an individual’s wish to procure debt. It is also dishonest to blame the Government for people’s failure to save.
The Current Account Deficit also has much to do with the worst drought in 100 years. Workchoices created 450,000 jobs. But don’t let facts get in the way of a Liberal bash.
The key question to be asked is how long will the truce/honeymoon/love-in between Bully the small l liberal and the big L Liberal of the looney Right last?
eg: The Rebublic. Cossie already said in his NPC show-off today that the Republic issue will be a very difficult issue for Bully and the Fibs to handle in opposition.
There will be more wedges to be thrown at Bully than the potato wedges in my fridge.
No 211
Oh, LOL, how pathetic that use the GDP measure to disguise the fact that Swan is having a traditional communist tax binge.
There was a small matter of dental services being cut as a centre piece of that legacy I do believe.
And unemployment fell at the same rate for the 5 years before WC
More bullbutter
207
Would i get helmet hair??
lol how pathetic not to use GDP measure in an attempt to try and paint the government as only raising taxes
one of the first actions of a Howard government IIRC
No 216
Sorry Dario, but the unions and Labor proclaimed that there would be mass sackings and that the sky would fall in. Nothing of the sort occurred.
No 219
Necessary thanks to Keating’s obscenely high Government debt and budget deficit.
As I posted earlier, Turnbull has backtracked from the Republic by saying that it should only go to a referendum after the Queen dies, to keep his party quiet. It will be a tough line to sell when the government is constantly reminding everyone that he was the ARM’s main man.
GP I notice you have the English flag as your avatar. Why do you hate Australia?
No, just losses of pay and conditions instead. How silly of those unionists to be concerned.
I think Malcolm will be singing “God, Save the Queen”, please.
Standards here haven’t been terribly high for the past hour or so. I’m going to start deleting boring comments without apology or explanation until things get back on course.
So… Eric Ripper, eh? What’s the deal with Roger Cook?
Any comments on the new WA Opposition there, William?
English flag?… I always figured he was the big Liberal elephant in the room?
No 208,
None of that seemed to suitably impress the electorate last November.
What did impress them though was 10 interest rate rises in a row, negative productivity, a reduction in Health & Education funding, being told that they had “never had it so good”, no real effort to fix the underspending on infrastructure or training and the clincher, introducing “work choices” to totally empower the employer and provide a vehicle to reduce the wages and working conditions of oedinary, everyday Australians, many of whom had supported the Libs as the “Howard Battlers”.
The ungrateful unwashed then had the audacity to say up you Howard and go and vote in that nice Mr Rudd. The swine! How dare they!
Agreed. Does anyone know the rough split of Monarchists & Republicans in the Federal Libs?
Andos, can stuff about WA please be directed to the relevant thread.
“oedinary”. That must be a word because my spell checker didn’t pick it up. Or else it went to sleep for a bit.
Ok, if Ripper is ALP leader in W.A. i vote Green. Still, if he’s leader now, he’ll be hopefully be gone by the next election. Argghh, unless there is a by-election post CCC findings???? This is not good. McTeirnan would have been the better choice as at least she gets things done.
Cameras hate her, but at least shes not Ripper.
Ahem.
If William allows it, may I ask a general question which relates directly to the US, but may also relate to Oz? It’s for the clever economists.
McCain’s spokesperson was being criticised for him saying “the fundamentals of the economy are strong”. This is countered by the argument that unemployment is 6.1%, the budget deficit continues to get worse and we are $10 trillion in debt”. His spokesman said that because Americans had the best work ethic and ingenuity in the world that the fundamentals were strong (which came across as pathetically as it sounds).
But she made a point that I’d really like to find more about. She said that in a recession, the worst thing to do is raise income tax. She said that is Economics 101. Is that true?
Whoops, sorry William.
I missed the update down the bottom of the “Hat Safe” thread.
My mistake. Feel free to delete the offending post.
may I be boring – and talk about the future, and not Howard?…
It seems to be between Robb and Abbott (!!) for the shadow treasury gig. Which I guess implies that Tony A swung behind Turnbull this time round… how long do you give that marriage lasting?
I still can’t understand how Robb is even in the frame for any senior role. He would have to be one of the least coherent and charismatic people in politics. Watching an interview of him he almost seems ill the way he responds to questions. He may be smart but boy it doesn’t show.
No 224
I don’t hate Australia.
I hope Robb is given it, and I hope that Swan or Julia or Tanner ask him how his case against the ineligible ALP candidates is going…
Surely when he asks them about some economic measure one of them has got to respond, “I’m surprised the Member for Goldstein has heard of that measure, no doubt he had to google it”…
Be interesting to see if Bishop gets the Treasurers spot? Can remember her being a particularly effective minister. Has she got anything like a banking backgound, or has she always been a blood sucker / lawyer pre-politics??
Dario,
“As I posted earlier, Turnbull has backtracked from the Republic by saying that it should only go to a referendum after the Queen dies, to keep his party quiet. It will be a tough line to sell when the government is constantly reminding everyone that he was the ARM’s main man.”
I wrote a nice short email tonight, sent to Malcolm’s parliament email, cc’d to Julia’s parliament email, generic in that I didn’t reveal which party I was a voter from. I just complained about his backtracking about the Republic. I don’t expect much to come of it but it made me feel better. Hopefully, it will also add to the ammo for Julia and the Labor front bench to press the Libs on this issue. I didn’t come to be an Aussie citizen because I wanted to be under the Queen’s control. If I wanted a monarchy, I would have bloody moved to England …..
Bugger, that should have been:
Cant, remember her being a particularly effective minister.
Geez, your memory must be better than mine.
But admittedly I am not a Julie B fan. Personally I would love her to be shadow treasurer, she has as much empathy for the working class as Marie Antoinette… (plus it would mean a lot more dopey props in QT)
Oh gods no!!! I am not a Julie Bishop Fan!!!
The Shame, The Shame!!
245 lol sorry imacca only read your correction after I wrote my response.
off topic William – but how has the move gone? I’d say the number of comments are up (though leadership spills do that). Don’t think there have been any complaints (I can’t think of any).
Glad you did it? – Also you seem to be commenting a bit more – or was that purely on the WA election thread?
SNIP: Scorpio, please talk about politics, not other commenters – The Management.
imacca, heard on the 7.30 report tonight that Turnbull met Julie Bishop when she was practicing law in Perth. Looks like we are going to have a lawyer for every occasion on the Liberal front bench. Don’t any other professions want to be in the Liberal shadow cabinet? It is not very representative of the people that they are supposed to represent.
amen to that
In the immortal words of the current lexicon, what happens if you put lipstick on Malcolm Turnbull? Is he still a bully or a republican.
Someone ought to tell the Scots that Malcolm is a turncoat , this article implies that Turnbull was put in, at Nelson’s expense, because of his different opinion on the Republic.
“Australian Conservative party brings in republican as leader
AUSTRALIA’S conservative opposition party today elected a staunch republican as its leader for the first time, giving a strong push to those who want to dump the Queen as the country’s head of state.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd seized on the Liberal Party’s appointment of multimillionaire former merchant banker Malcolm Turnbull to chide the opposition on the republic issue.
Turnbull, who backs making Australia a republic with its own head of state, chaired the Republican Movement from 1993 to 2000. He was narrowly elected by his lawmaker colleagues by a vote of 45 to 41. He defeated incumbent Brendan Nelson, who argues Australia should retain constitutional links to the British monarchy.
National University political scientist John Warhurst described Turnbull as “Australia’s highest profile republican”. pointing to his leadership of the failed campaign to make Australia a republic in a 1999 referendum”
http://news.scotsman.com/world/Australian-Conservative-party-brings-in.4494811.jp
Ooh… thank goodness you didn’t divulge… who knows what terrible cats might have set amongst the pigeons,
once the word got out
If all the lawyers in parliament had to leave, there wouldn’t be many left on either side…
wonder what the next most popular profession would be – teachers? journos (ALP side of course
)? party hacks?
Watching Turnbull on 7:30 report. He seems to think that he is the leadership that the country deserves. I resent his low opinion or how deserving we are!
Sorry, William, no offense meant.
Careful with those scissors though, they’re pretty sharp!
I don’t know why people are preoccupied with the presence of lawyers in the parliament. The fact is that without appropriate legal knowledge, we would have terribly drafted, inappropriately amended legislation passing everyday.
It was very much reassuring to listen to George Brandis embarrass an ALP senator today for totally misunderstanding the implications of the amendments the Government is seeking to pass.
Turnbull was sharp tonight on the republic and Rudd’s bipartisan gesture. And he was right too, there are better things that the two parties might cooperate over. Queen, schmeen. Let’s save the Murray Darling.
GP, you should know better – when you mention George Brandis, you must always include “SC”
juliem,
Looks as though the reporter at the Scotsman didn’t watch the 7.30 Report before he wrote that article.
Careless error.
But George Brandis SC has a commanding knowledge of the law, which I would have thought is necessary in parliamentarians given that they are indelibly linked with the law and its composition.
Hmmm I remember hearing that Swan collaborated on an academic paper about NAIRU. Also remember reading in Fin Rev that one of the banks’ chief economist said Swannie had not made any mistake in his reply to Malcolm. OK said reply was wordy
“It was very much reassuring to listen to George Brandis embarrass an ALP senator today for totally misunderstanding the implications of the amendments the Government is seeking to pass.”
GP, I’m sure that being attacked by Brandis would be about as threatening as being hit over the wrist with a damp tea leaf.
A good post by “Bennery” on TD’s blog.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/liberal_leadership_declared_vacant/P60/
No 264
Pathetic.
Where’s the cooperation from the Libs been for the last 10 months then? Ridiculous populist stunts like the 5c petrol excise and $30 for pensioners? Bagging Fuelwatch despite all evidence pointing to it working in WA? Fair suck of the sav…
Could be a bit difficult for Malcolm. Howard kept the envelope when he departed the scene.
No 267
1. The Liberal Party stands for lower taxes.
2. The pensioner increase is hardly populist when the government itself has admitted that it is inadequate.
3. Fuelwatch is an unnecessary impost on the market. Imagine being fined for reducing your prices. How ridiculous.
Right enough Dario, it’s been idiotic, transparent, demeaning. And Nelson would appear to have paid the price?
264 have to agree – from watching Brandis in senate estimates hearings, he comes more pleased with his own witticisms than others are scarred by them.
Still, he’s better than Ronaldson. (and don’t get me start on Connie FV-W)
Thanks, William. I shall simply ignore the gravatur thingy from here on out. It was meant to be Mr. Gumby saying “My brain hurts” according to Python.
GP, #266 is the kind of comment I had in mind when I said you’d be banned next time you left a comment I felt inclined to delete. This really is your last warning.
HSO, it’s showing up for me.
Surely Christopher Pyne deserves some sort of promotion to the front bench. Although there lots of issues regarding his off field antics, and being a Costello brown noser. Surely he is in Malcolms corner now, and would have worked the numbers to get Turncoat in…
Yet it was introduced in WA by your beloved Liberal Party, of which Premier-Elect Barnett was a member of the Court Govt at the time.
No 273
With respect William, everyone else doesn’t get pulled up for sly remarks. Double standards, much?
No 276
And I fundamentally disagree with its introduction.
Why not propose an amendment to remove or modify the part that restricted reducing prices then? Instead it was just a blanket opposition and ridicule of a perfectly good policy already functioning in WA, imposed by a state Liberal government. bipartisan indeed.
Ta, William. It’s just strange it doesn’t show up on my screen. It’s of no moment. If others get the joke, that’s O.K..
Geriatric Person your comments are far more inflammatory than any other persons post here. Stick to constructive posts and youll be fine….
I think Pyne should be made Shadow Foreign Minister. Long trips to far off places would suit him and the Australian public.
GP has been banned.
#282 – I agree with your sentiment completely. I just cannot stand his yapping
An interesting point that I have seen brought up on other blogs.
Will Turnbull keep Peter Hendy on as chief of staff or will he do the sensible thing and quickly ditch him to try and get some clear air from work choices.
That’s Julie Bishop’s weak point too.
Surely Rudd & Co will keep reminding the electorate about the links.
That’s a little harsh William… I hope it isn’t a permanent ban
Frankly I think the powder is being kept dry by the government on WorkChoices. Closer to election time I think we will see a lot more data that was hidden by the previous government come to the surface.
It’s absolutely a permanent ban. I’ve warned him about five times, including two last warnings, in the past few days. He’s creating an enormous amount of work for me and he’s not worth the effort.
Dario, have to agree with you on that.
The ammunition locker is full and ready for when the main action starts.
The fireworks will be spectacular and the result could be quite bloody.
Fair enough Mr Bowe. It’s your site so it’s your call.
SNIP: No offence, Scorpio, but I think it appropriate that I remove discussion of people who I won’t allow to reply – The Management.
SNIP: No offence, HSO, but I think it appropriate that I remove discussion of people who I won’t allow to reply – The Management.
I thought Generic Person was very intelligent , argud for his Liberal party well and seemed his retorts were quicker than keystokes hitting enter I do that
I would think Peter Hendy would be moved on! I’m happy for see Julie Bishop remain deputy leader, I see her as one of the Liberal Party few talents.
I find class war offensive therefore a warning to the ALP if you start attacking Turnbull for him having money I will switch my vote, there are rich people and poor people in most suburbs and really if you can’t beat Turnbull for his policies then you don’t deserve to beat him.
Imacca! I may be incorrect but did you say Turnbull cause the defeat of the Republican debate and while I criticise Turnbulls campaign effort but their are view people who campaign harder for a yes vote.
Someone suggested that Howard caused the social problems in this Country! I’m sorry but that is crap as much as I didn’t like the former PM I think its important to remember that many of the problems in this country are caused by State Governments that are a waste of space and serve no purpose that couldn’t be carryied out by a National Government in conjunction with proper Local Governments.
To show how pathetic the suburb enyy is on the weekend the Herald Sun claimed that the Northern & Western suburbs had less services, then listed the suburbs that claim to be disadvantaged but Interestingly failed to mention the Local Government area that is considered to be the most disadvantage (Greater Dandenong)
While on pensioners, why do the Media Interview pensioners playing lawn bowls when those Pensioners who are really struggling cannot afford
to be playing Lawn bowls
Wonder what will happen to Nick Minchin and other hardcore opponents of Turnbull. Will they be cajoled into the shadow ministry in an effort of bringing the factions together or left out in the cold to be taught a lesson?
Boy, some of these Lib supporters can be pretty tough on their own kind.
This post was on TD’s site too.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/liberal_leadership_declared_vacant/P80/
I thought that too Ron, but that fact that he refuses to do as I ask trumps all that.
275 I think you may be right there. If they aren’t going to give the “young ones” like Pyne and Hunt a go, they might as well shut up shop till 2011.
I think Pyne doesn’t always live up to his own self-belief, but at least he has some energy.
He also produced one of the funniest moments in QT this year when he got up to make a point of order about Gillard (from memory) not referring to members by their electorate, and he ended by saying to the speaker “So could I ask you to direct her to stop doing it” At which point he realised he had just done the same thing. He sheepishly acknowledged it and sat down to laughter on both sides.
Hi ron. Welcome back from the island. I was becoming concerned that you might have been marooned there.
To be fair mb, these kinds of problems are caused by a combination of the lot. How you determine exactly how much is down to one level of government over another is nigh on impossible. The Feds cut funding to the states, the states spend their money poorly, and on it goes. Hopefully the current government can get rid of all that rubbish. Only time will tell.
#236 Diogenes
In a nutshell, a recession is two quarters of negative economic growth. In order to reverse the situation, a government must do everything it can to encourage investment in the economy. It can either do this by heavily investing in the economy with its own funds and potentially running the budget into deficit, or it can put more money in the hands of consumers through tax cuts which said will (hopefully) re-invest in the economy by buying crap they don’t need and hence why McCain Corp don’t want to raise taxes.
Much more importantly though in staving off recession is that the reserve bank could drop interest rates in order to encourage corporate and foreign investment in the economy.
This is a very simplified explanation. Its in reality much more complicated and things don’t always work out as planned.
There is no way Hendy will be retained. And no reason why he should be – advisors are pretty personal choices, it’s not like Departmental heads.
Hendy was a Nelson mate from way back.
Anybody taking bets on how long Turnbull will last. Minchin is no doubt sharpening knives while I type.
Personally I think commentary on both sides should show a bit more respect. Rudd and Turnbull are both capable, it is going to be fun to watch.
GP back by popular demand.
In 1992 the Victorian State budget was approx $12 Billion! The currant Victorian State budget is over $30 Billion an increase of approx $20 Billion yet the State Government is struggling to manage service delivery
Under the Howard Government the federal Budget grow in dollar terms by about $80 Billion (I’m happy to be corrected)
Yes there is a lot to criticise the Federal Government for but at some point the State Governments need to deliver, one of the problems in this country is the overlap between the three levels of Government with Health being a great example.
303 – I’d suggest he’ll be given a pretty good go (though the polls could influence this…)
Has there been any word on who voted for whom?
Bishop it seems went for Nelson. Abbott for Turnbull (apparently). Pyne also for Turnbull. Hockey?
304 William it wasn’t that popular!
Thanks William. We’ll try and keep him on the straight and narrow from now on.
I’m back!
*Thanks William ever so graciously*
Lateline on. More Turnbull early history.
Did GP win by more than Turnbull!
Ron @ 293
If the Liberal party is to have a future then people like GP have to be in it’s past.
Is that really the case in Vic though? Compared to the Kennett era I would imagine the service delivery is a vast improvement these days
Swanee was right. Plan A is gone. Now is Plan B (Bully) and Plan C is awaiting and smirking.
GP you must have “George Brandis SC” arguing for you to be able to get a permanent ban overturned so quickly!
*Public Transport*
*Public Hospitals*
Brumby is doing somethings considerbly better than Kennett but since I’m not aware of the amounts in other states budgets I use Victoria has as my casestudy.
The Piping Shrike has written an interesting piece on the leadership struggle.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/2008/09/old-leadership-loses-control.html
Ugh! Australia’s worst treasurer is on TV.
William, does this mean I can now again try to get GP to relate to us as human beings, including Gumbys? I know I’m crazy, BTW.
Now GP, be nice to Mr Swan
No 320
I cannot fathom why commie Tony revels in asking Swan to outline the strengths and weaknesses of Turnbull? Why give them free kicks!? Red Kerry does a better job.
318 -are they replaying the clip of Costello at the press club today?
Mexican Beemer
“I find class war offensive therefore a warning to the ALP if you start attacking Turnbull for him having money I will switch my vote”
it is th rules & th methods and there fairness underwhich th creators of wealth earn income at expense of working familys that is scrutinised for which W/C is an example , and Turnbull fails one of these tests As for threatening to change voting from ‘left’ to ‘right’ for merely criticising Turnbull over this , perhaps you should do so now because Labor has only fired a gentle first volley
No-one earns income at the expense of someone else. People are responsible for themselves Ron. It has nothing to do with WorkChoices.
Ron! I’m aware that the ALP will attack Turnbull as being out of touch with the average punter and that is to be expected but you can do that without post code envy.
Sam Maiden in The Oz on front bench wranglings:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24355512-601,00.html
DEPUTY Liberal leader Julie Bishop has emerged as a leading candidate to seize the vacant shadow treasury portfolio.
“Ms Bishop, who is believed to have backed Malcolm Turnbull in today’s ballot ahead of the existing leader Brendan Nelson, could cite the right of the deputy to choose a portfolio to claim the post.
Other candidates for the portfolio include foreign affairs spokesman Andrew Robb and family spokesman Tony Abbott, who is being pushed by key NSW conservatives who delivered vital votes to Mr Turnbull.
Mr Abbott is understood to have told colleagues that he wants to be “fully in harness” in the Turnbull era.”
[fully in harness] omg!
No 325
Exactly right MB. It is absurd to proclaim that your suburb determines your wealth.
steve @ 317. The Shrike is political journalism. If you’re out there, PS, you’re a star.
324 if I am your boss and I profit from paying you less, then I am earning (more) income at your expense wouldn’t you say?
No, because that scenario does not encompass your right to withdraw your labour.
Lets play a game pick where is the following school
Separte Senior wing
Large school Library
Indoor Bastekball Court with Electronic scordboard
Two Tennis Courts
One Football ground
One sports oval with its own cricket pitch & Soccer pitch
Three outdoor Bastekball courts
One large paved sports area etc
Interestingly the school no longer exist but where would you expect to find such a school, its in an area that would be considered ALP but is a Liberal Party marginal
GP, Commie Tony is mates with Chrissy Pyne, so blows the commie comment out of the water, See whata great run Pyne gets on all ABC mediums, TV and Radio.
The school even own a Camp
having the right in theory doesn’t mean I have the ability in the reality..
anyhoo Turnbull certainly won’t die in a ditch for a return of workchoices.
With Bishop or Abbott as treasury spokesperson however…
William, you might want to consider banning people, and this could certainly include me, for just being plain bloody boring.
Calling people communists is really uncalled for surely. That is a term of the distant past and deserves to remain there.
330 “No, because that scenario does not encompass your right to withdraw your labour.”
Which is another spurious argument in itself. I just can not believe how many times the right has used this argument but it makes no more sense than the first time it was argued. Surely it would have to be one of the more ludicrous bits of dogma common to rightwingers.
No Grog, the Employer pay has nothing to do with what others are paid.
The people who win from lower wages are the shareholders, now in many cases they (boss) would own shares.
335 HSO… now be kind, no need for you to get all Gumby on us (or at least me)!
No 337
Interestingly, you offered no substantive argument in opposition to my statement.
MB@294
I think that Malcolm T had a lot to do with the defeat of the Republican movements objective of having an Australian head of state. It seemed clear at the time, and I think has been borne out most recently by the 4 Corners on the mans history that he was pushing the model of and appointed rather than elected head of state.
It was apparent at the time that it was the only model that Howard was going to let get through as it was the least likely to succeed. Many Republicans were unlikely to vote for a half arsed job and wanted the real thing. Malcolm went along with the half arsed version. Why??
I dont seriously think he was an inside spoiler, (although i have been seen in a tinfoil hat at times, henna) but that he showed VERY bad judgement in backing a model that was least likley to win. But hey, he got a vast exposeure, publicity and profile out of didnt he?
Mexican Beemer
You misunderstand Labor philosophy completely It is th manner that Alan Bond & Christopher Skase earned there money and then lived in McMansions that earns not post code envy but contempt for them With Turnbull his shady Packer deals earn similar derison
As to W/C , legislating that an individual worker no matter how young or inexperienced or lacking debating savvy can always equally negotiate with a boss in all circumstances and this is STILL an aussie fair go and is still equitable and is not standard under UN rights to collectively negotiate, THEN you neither understand Labor policy nor need to switch your vote from Labor , its already long gone
No doubt Turnbull didn’t cover himself in glory and if he hasn’t learnt then Rudd might as well call the next election now and wipe the Liberals out.
GP, 318 is cutting it fine. The comment simply wasn’t worth making. You are also banned from using the word “commie”.
No 338
So long as there are appropriate minimum standards, there is no reason why the market cannot operate freely. The reality is that it is an employee’s market out there and thus no employee is realistically bound by their job. The exception is the heavily subsidised industries such as local auto manufacturing.
Ron! that is a defeated attitude giving up on my vote two years out from election day!
That’s partly true, but WC sought to remove most of those minimum standards in one fell swoop, hence the general populace’s issues with it
Greetings Turnbull discussers.
I don’t know if this has already been noted, but in this evening’s interview on the ABC Turnbull deliberately and calculatedly turned his back on the republican cause. He said that there should be no move on the republic until the Queen dies, and that if Rudd tries to move on the republic then he will be “just playing politics” or words to that effect. In other words he will side with the monarchists to kill any republic push by Rudd, merely in order to gain a transient tactical advantage. I must admit I didn’t expect such an immediate, cold-blooded descent into total partisanship – I had a slightly higher opinion of Turnbull than that. Silly me, still naively willing to believe well of people after all these years.
Grog, it’s just got so bloody boring, really. I’m not wanting to be rude or disrespectful to my old buddies, but I’m a bit antsy ATM. The kid’s breathing has gone into dying mode and we wait for her end.
No 348
I think you’re overanalysing. The reality is that the public support for a republic is blithe and is unlikely to retract until the Queen dies anyway.
Either way it’s all academic when we already have an Aussie Head of State.
I think Turnbull’s biggest problem will be trying to differentiate himself sufficiently from Labor to give people a reason to put the Libs into power.
Does this mean that Turnbull will be playing a white steinway piano in Worsley Road Point Piper at 3am in the morning?
Turnbull has a point, getting a republic up while the Queen is alive is nearly impossble in writing that the Republicans have basically disappered, I would have expected them to have been more high profile than they have been over the past eight years.
Sorry, No 350 should read “unlikely to increase”
GP, please don’t pretend to be stupid when I know you’re not. It’s unbecoming. On the main point, if Turnbull was willing to support Rudd on another referendum for the minimalist republic model, it would get up. But he’s not willing to allow Rudd that success, even if shared with himself. What he’s really saying is “no Turnbull government, no republic.”
349 HSO. I’ll take your advice and call it a night then.
338 “The reality is that it is an employee’s market out there and thus no employee is realistically bound by their job.”
I’m afraid that that could only be argued from a right perspective GP. That statement of yours is a basic distinguishing point between right and left of the political spectrum and I do not believe the statement is true. Rightwingers tend to see that statement as self evident. The best I can do is agree to disagree.
There has been no incentive for the pro republic voice to rise whilst JWH was in power and tightly held the reins of the conservative vote. The time will be upon us shortly and will be successful…Unfotunately that means no more commonweath games darn it…
Christopher… what?? The Commonwealth is full of republics.
No 353
The problem for the ARM is the lack of a sufficient model to put to the people. The whole movement could not agree on the model and were fighting amongst themselves in 1999.
In any event, Rudd has more material things to worry about.
As Adam said, if it had bipartisan support it would get up. Turnbull is just playing politics to keep his party off his back, who would go to near revolt if he supported Rudd on this.
So adam are you saying we can still top the leaderboard at the Commonweath games…Yipee!
Night all. GP, we’re all just humans, and ideas are just ideas about how we can live together well. Ideas have no status beyond being ideas, to be tested and tried.
Er, no
No 355
Sorry, I don’t agree. First of all, Rudd has not proposed anything in detail and we are unlikely to know which way Turnbull will go if the republic issue re-emerges. Secondly, even if Turnbull virulently supported a bipartisan approach, it would not get up because the monarchy still enjoys a healthy popularity in the electorate. The polling data to prove my point is available on http://www.norepublic.com.au.
Most of the No vote in 1999 was Liberals voting No because Howard told them to. If Tunrbull supported a referendum most Liberals would follow him and vote Yes. Also a lot of the people on the left who opposed the minimal model last time would change their minds, since they would see that if another referendum failed, that would be the end of the republic for good. A referendum in 2010 with bipartisan support would have good prospects. But obviously Turnbull intends playing hardball on that as on everything else.
I enjoyed Albo’s revelation that Turnbull tried to get ALP Senate nomination in 1994. Can’t the Libs find ANY leaders who are not ALP rejects?
hmm, Costello, Nelson, Buswell in WA and now Turnbull – do I see a pattern emerging ?
was Buswell an ALP reject? I didn’t know that.
No 361
The lack of bipartisan support is a myth perpetrated by republicans. The reality is that the republic failed because the model sucked and the ARM could not even agree on which one we should pursue.
If Howard was so against it, he could have avoided the costly referendum in the first place.
So how tied is Malcolm T to this whole “Howard Legacy” thing?? Inflation, rate rises, Kiddies OB and endless detention.
Will be interesting to see how the SerfChoices thing plays out. Malcolm will have to be carefull as surely Bishops support is conditional on not dumping this completley, but if they dont dump it completely they haven’t learnt anything from Nov 07.
GP, the ARM was in full agreement on the model. It was the leftards led by Phil Cleary who wanted the direct election model.
Howard was bound by Downer’s promise to have a referendum as you well know.
369 “The lack of bipartisan support is a myth perpetrated by republicans.”
GP, the lack of bipartisan support is a policy pursued by monarchists.
In all fairness Turnbull denied this in parliament after question time.
Well he would, wouldn’t he?
As leader of the opposition you really wouldn’t want to be caught out lying to parliament would you?
The real question is, if Turnbull offered himself as an ALP Senate candidate, why did the ALP knock him back? He would have been an asset if his ego could be kept in check.
Thats some powerful mojo> you got going there GP
lol, as if Howard would have cared about the cost!
Finally… something important
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24356783-5001021,00.html
That’s a classic! Dont’cha just love the pollies
Liberal staffers unwanted by Pineapple Party.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24352109-5006786,00.html
I found this post interesting. Something that I was unaware of.
[I’d forgotten all about this. It might explain some of the animosity between the Costello/Coleman clans versus the Turnbull clans.
From Wikipedia today......
“Turnbull first ran for Liberal Party preselection for the seat of Wentworth in the eastern suburbs of Sydney in 1981, but was beaten by Peter Coleman.[2]”
Peter Coleman is Costello’s friggin father in law.
Courtesy of, I Am The Walrus of Sydney, at TD’s blog.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/liberal_leadership_declared_vacant/P120/
27 years ago… talk about holding a grudge
William, if you won’t ban GP, could you at least ban that annoying man in the top right of my screen who keeps waving an American Express credit card at me?
Also the formatting of this blog is still all over the place, regardless of which computer I am viewing it on. Needs more work.
Switch to Firefox Adam! With the AdblockerPro plugin & FlashBlock plugin all your ads will dissapear forever!!!
My last for the night, courtesy of Seano @ TD’s. Night all.
Well the legacy of Nelson has been settled. It is the sell out of the Queensland Liberal Party to the Nationals that was the crowning glory of his illustrious career.
The formating problems we’re getting don’t occur in Firefox either.
Yup, all looks good in Firefox
That’s two strong agrees and a ‘dunno’. What’s Flashblock?
(Site works fine with the noice new FF3, by the way.
)
Flashblock stops flash animations running when you load a page. Replaces the flash animation with a button that you can enable if you want. Also allows enabling flash for specific sites. Great for getting rid of annoying flash ads.
Works so far in Opera, Netscape, Firefox and SeaMonkey
Yuk… just tried it in IE again. Very nasty. Definitely some issues there.
IE format problems should be gone now.
Slightly better, but still getting strange increasing post indents as you go down the page, and the page seems to be much wider than the screen with a big blank area off to the right
my fellow Australian I bring you the $10,000,000 rain making machine ! ! ! as a solution to our drought/climate change problems !
Looks like William has sorted out the widget stuff on his blog that was giving MSIE the irrits, but the weird indenting thing is something I have to figure out and fix for him.
It is honestly a shame that politics is so rigidly partisan now that someone the likes of Turnbull or Nelson has to behave and espouse views contrary to their own on a persistent and continuing basis just to maintain their position in the party and “traction” in Parliament / the media. Cooperation to a greater degree between the parties, as one sometimes sees rare glimpses of in committee reports and the like, would probably be more productive than the pie throwing contest we now have where an irresponsible Opposition who do not have to pay for the promises they make, make blatant appeals to populism simply to make the Government of the day look bad. (Note I have deliberately kept it party neutral, as I think Labor were guilty of much the same when in Opposition.)
The Opposition thinks it has a cunning plan to introduce its Pension increase bill in the Senate.
Except that a money bill (a bill proposing an expenditure or levying a tax), must be introduced in the House of Representatives.
So whatever the bill they introduce – it will not raise pensions by one cent if it passes.
It will be amended in the Reps, if it passes the Senate, and the Libs will have to vote against the amendments.
I can see it now – The Liberal’s voted against a pension rise for all pensioners.
Dumb politics again.
Workchoices is to the Libs like the Republic is to the ALP. While ever the ALP exists they well want a Republic. While ever the Libs exists they will want a type of Work Choices. Just have a look at how quick has pulled away from a referendum for a Republic not even a maybe or we should have a look at it.
The pressure will always be there for the Libs Leader either by the Business Unions and/or the Libs themselves. That is a given.
Grog,
(don’t know if this has been noted yet or not, I’m just catching up on overnight posts). I read this morning in one article on The Age that Joe Hockey is Nelson’s landlord here in Canberra so I would suggest from that piece of news that it is likely that Joe voted for Nelson …..
* AT 6am on Monday, the burly Liberal frontbencher from Sydney, Joe Hockey, was busy fertilising the lawn of his house in Canberra. Dr Brendan Nelson is a tenant of Hockey’s house and they wished each other a cheery good morning. “Big day today,” Nelson said. Hockey thought nothing of it.
* Nelson decided during the weekend that he would try to execute his would-be executioner, and planned his trap without letting even his housemate, Hockey, in on it.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/how-bombshell-blew-up-in-nelsons-face-20080916-4hx7.html?page=2
398 “I can see it now – The Liberal’s voted against a pension rise for all pensioners.
Dumb politics again.”
ruawake the Liberals just don’t seem to be able to follow a process through to its conclusion. I think they see it as introduce Bill into senate, Government oppose it in HoR and Opposition get kudos for helping pensioners even if they have done no such thing. As you point out the long term effects are not assisting the Opposition electorally at all.
It would appear that the alcopops tax is about to become an issue with a Howard government commissioned independent report backing the tax.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24359293-29277,00.html
Tom is Steve Fielding threatening to oppose the Alcopops tax Bill? I didn’t think he would have after he went to the trouble of introducing this private members Bill last year.
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/clac_ctte/alcohol_reduction/report/report.pdf
It is fascinating the number of MPs that come from single parent families. Has anyone done any research on how this has impacted on their politics?
I think Senator Fielding might have confused himself somewhat. He is more interested in stopping the advertising of alcohol apparently than doing anything about using the tax system to reduce binge drinking.
I fail to see how banning advertising is going to cause a ‘culture of responsible drinking ‘ among binge drinkers which Fielding claims is his intention. Binge drinking by definition has nothing to do with a culture of responsible drinking, it is drinking for a totally different reason, namely to get as drunk as possible as quickly as possible. It can also be seen as a reaction against the ‘culture of responsible drinking’.
As for his theory that he wants to be convinced that drinkers won’t substitute other drinks if alcopops are taxed out of the binge drinker’s reach is a bit like asking for a guarantee that cars won’t drive on the left hand side of the road tomorrow. Drinkers have substituted drinks for more accessible drinks for thousands of years so I can’t see how Fielding is going to stop that now or how he can think a Government can give him such an assurance.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/05/2355971.htm?section=justin
Turnbull’s line on the republic is dismal, and frankly I’m a bit disappointed. I thought he might be a bit better than that. Either having a republic is a good idea or it is not. What is the relevance of the queen’s health? Using Turnbull’s argument if she dies tomorrow we should become a republic very soon and if she lives another 20 years we should wait 20 years. What kind of a policy is that? Since when do you determine policy based on when someone dies? And I think the argument about the Queen being so popular that a republic wouldn’t get up is rubbish. With bipartisan support it would almost certainly get up.
Dio, he needed an out and I guess it was the best he could come up with
Turnbull has not changed his support for a Republic, all he has said is it wont happen until Queen Elizabeth dies and I think the polls back that view
Dio.
If the nation goes to a referendum now – and the republic loses – then the idea will be dead for a couple of decades if not longer. Nobody would dare raise the idea of a third vote after it’s defeated resoundingly twice in the space of a decade or two. Turnbull knows this, and he is correct in stating that we should wait for the Queen to go or at the very least for some other catalyst to set things in motion.
In 1999, there was a very powerful symbolic argument for the republic – new century new independent country. No such argument exists today, passions won’t be aroused as easily. Besides he is no fool – a decent proportion of the country oppose a republic under any circumstances, and would be more than happy to make their feelings felt at the ballet box.
I’m a republican, but I accept that we need to wait. It won’t be long, with every year that passes the monarchy becomes slightly more irrelevant, more younger people get granted the right to vote and, of course, the older and generally monarchist voters start to dwindle in numbers. The republic is inevitable if it’s not rushed.
Max is correct! another problem the Republic debate has at the moment is the tightening Economic condictions and while we Political types might like big issues and big debates, out there in Voterland the most Imprtant issues start at home so the best thing for the Republicans to do is sit back develop a sound modal while at the same time build the case for change knowing full well Prince Charlas does not have the public support that the Queen has.
It needs to be remembered that Federation was first mentioned in the 1850s and it wasn’t until the debate had developed grass roots support that the Pollys brought the debate to a head, another thing when the first Federation modal was rejected the pro-federationist continued to develop the modal and with hindsight we came up with a better system than we would have had if it had been passed first up.
This is exactly why we should be a republic ASAP.
We shouldn’t base whether or not we modify our constitution on the life span of a person who does not live in this country.
What have “economic conditions” got to do with becoming a Republic? Why can’t we as a country walk and chew gum at the same time?
Max, don’t you think that as the older population, and who were a significant part of its defeat, dies off, ( no offence intended ) does a republic become more of a reality.?
My kids think its stupid for us to have a head of state from another country. So do I. Nothing personal against the queen.
It would be interesting and a great mark of respect to the original owners of the land if the GG had to be Indigenous.
Would Australians accept it ? Would they vote for a black leader.? There are lawyers, judges and other Indigenous people of high standing that have the intelligence and nouse to do the job just as well as anybody else.
Replace “reality” with “inevitability”.
GOOD on you, Bob Brown
***
Greens want 2010 republic vote
Article: September 17, 2008 10:46am (from Melbourne Herald Sun)
A REFERENDUM on the republic should be held with the next federal election, due in 2010, the Australian Greens say.
Greens leader Bob Brown today said today the time was right as both Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull support a republic.
“We Greens are going to move before Christmas for a referendum at the next election on the republic, just a yes-no question,” he said.
“We think the time is right, the stars are aligned.
“We have a prime minister and a leader of the Opposition who support the republic.”
The Australian people should be given a simple opportunity before work was done on what form a republic should take, Senator Brown said.
The failed 1999 referendum should have been asked simply whether or not the electorate favoured a republic.
“Ask people in Australia do they want a republic, the answer is yes.
“Once we have established that, we can go on to outline the powers of a future president and how that president ought to be appointed.”
I don’t think people would care if a GG was black, but to mandate it permanantly wouldn’t be taken well
I think that most reasonable people would accept that Turnbull still holds pro Republican ideals, even if he now is hiding them behind so called party unity. Therefore, this is NOT going to go away because everyone realizes what Turnbull is on about
……
sondeo,
That’s exactly what I was saying… I minced my words a bit more than you did but anyway. Younger generations are more inclined to go ‘why wouldn’t we be a republic?’ than the older generation who perhaps grew up in an era where the Queen was more revered, and are more likely to go ‘why should we change?’ That’s a generalisation of course.
I myself see absolutely no point in the Queen being our Head of State. However, I’m more worried about the systematic and constitutional issues involved with a republic (which one senses would inevitably involved an elected HOS) when our current system is stable, democratic and works very well for the most part. An elected President with a mandate should be avoided. But given the right model I’m sure any issues can be ironed out, albeit with some uncertainty. We’re an easy going lot.
Mr Brown should probably do a bit of background reading – a Yes-No question put to the Australian people would be a plebiscite, not a referendum. Not that one expects an elected politician to know the law.
If people are serious about becoming a Republic then this maybe a precious chance as the leaders from both sides support it which, may not happen again.
However the Govt aught to do some pre-polling on it to see how interested and willing the public is rather than wasting time and air on it.
It was more Rudd trying to play politics, of all the things he asked, he asked about the Rupublic?
Is the Republic the most important thing in Australia?
It would not be top 50.
Passing the budget should also be the first thing in the mind of Labor!
Rudd was trying to split the Liberals, he was playing politics and Turnbull took him to task on it. It was good
Dario, I actually agree with that sentiment as well. The reason I wrote it is because of a conversation with my kids who asked the question ” why don’t they replace the queen with an Aborigine, they were here first ? “.
As they are still all below teen age its a bit hard to get across the complexity of what a presidents role in Australia would be.
But it is an interesting side to the debate.
ShowsOn! Very true that we should beable to chew gum and walk at the same time and we can but unlike the Climate Change debate the Republicans have not been building the case for change other than the Queen lives in another Country which means the chances of getting a Yes debate are sightly higher than other would be the case making this harder is if the Economy shows down, I’m tipping we will avoid a Recession and a Yes vote in 2010 is possible.
People need to be careful to not pigeon hold supporters of the Queen as the grey hair set for many federal seats with high levels of first & second generation Australians voted No, I will also point out that some voted No because the modal wasn’t good enough which is why I voted No.
People like Senator Bob Brown calling for a simple question are leaving themselves open to a scare campaign that will be diffcult to combat without having built the grass roots support, in many ways the Republic debate shows how lazy the Political classes have become in just expecting Voterland to agree, maybe they need to earn that support.
Case for Issues like the Federation, GST, Climate Change have developed overtime.
I meant harder not higher
It was good how we had a PM last year who wouldn’t play politics and particularly wedge politics. I bet if we go back over Dovif’s postings you will not find one criticism of Howard using the wedge or playing politics in any way.
Is that like a squirrel grip?
lol
I’ll pay that! pigeon hole
Sky news is running this as one of their news headlines at the bottom of the screen.
“Malcom Turnbull remains an individually-named defendant in corporate legal action relating to the collapse of HIH.”
Old news.
It really isn’t good enough for an opposition to just criticise. Sure it’s part of the job but to show people they are better than the government they need to show they have the answers. just saying “we’re not the government” is weak and a cop out. I look forward to turnbull’s answers on how we can “fix” our economy oh, and the US’s as well.
Yeah, its was the main article this morning on SMH.com.au as well
Old news but not good news for Turnbull.
It was probably one of the main reasons Rudd won the election too. Picked his battles and proposed alternatives.
ShowsOn,
Maybe well and truely “old news” BUT a story I read earlier today said that the court case is scheduled to come to trial, at present, in Feb. 2010 which won’t do Malcolm any favors. If he’s still leader at that point, it will be an incredible distraction towards a looming election campaign
It might be old news but I think Allbull would rather it not be brought up and used as a main news story..
Sorry to keep asking dumb questions but here goes.
Max
What’s the difference legally between a referendum and a plebiscite?
Grant
Thanks for the explanation of what the Government should do in a recession. It leads me to three further questions.
1. If interest rates are already very low, as in the US, does dropping them to almost zero work?
2. Can a government in serious debt afford to go into further debt by collecting less taxes?
3. Where should the tax relief be targeted? Business, consumption, high or low income? Wouldn’t removing the GST (forget what it’s called in the US) be the best way to immediately stimulate the economy.
Sorry if this has been asked and answered, but I’ve been trawling through PB most of yesterday and just starting today’s marathon. Do we get to find out who voted how?
A referendum affects the Constitution, a plebiscite does not
The starting point of the Sub-primal crisis was when the Fed Reserve dropped rates really low this in turn made loans too cheap combined with very loose Home loan regulations.
I’m in two minds about the loan provided to AIG, for if AIG cannot cover their existing debts then how can we believe they can in future but in saying that losing AIG without trying something would have been unacceptable.
In An Australian context the Government has no real reason do act for Interest Rates will start coming down and Petrol prices may well follow therefore as long as the Government remains open to the situation and refrains from becoming reactionary we should avoid a recession of course things can change very quickley but as long as we remain confidence that we have good sound regulation in place and as long as all loses are exposed before they become too large everything should be okay.
Roxanna
Liberal leadership votes are a secret ballot, so unless someone wants to say how they voted we will never know.
More or less what Dario said. Any alteration of the Constition requires the voters approval. A plebiscite does not do that.
A plebiscite isn’t a binding vote. In Australia I think we’ve only had one – in 1977 there was the question ‘What do you want as Australia’s national anthem?’ So if you don’t like our current anthem, thats the generation to blame.
For the record, Advance Australia fair got 44% of the vote, Waltzing Matilda 28% and God Save the Queen 19%. Wonder how that would go today?
Plebiscites aren’t binding on the government although it would, of course, be political suicide to not act on what the public have voted for. It just would not happen. They’re carried out in the same way as a referendum though (get a ballot paper, must fill it in etc)
Many people think a plebiscite is the way to go for a republic: first ask whether one is wanted, and once the people approve that, discussion can turn to what model is appropriate for a second (binding) vote a year or two later. A lot of people think 1999 tried to cover too much at once, which is probably true. The main problem with this approach, of course, is the amount money involved.
The missing vote was Mark Vaile.
Garry Bruce 426
I am replying to people who think Turnbull made a bad speech on answering Rudd about the republic, he never said he did not want a republic, he was referring that Rudd is as bad (if not worst) than any other politician
If you go through my post, I have commented many time that Howard was way past his useby date and had so many skeleton in his closet that a lot of people (including me) did not vote for him
But I am seeing Rudd heading down the path of the likes of UK Labour, Bob Carr, Carpenter etc and I am worry about the ALP will not get anything done
Turnball’s biggest problem: his arrogance and patrician attitude! I can’t see him connecting with the average voter in the mortgage belt.
Thanks ruawake. Pity.
Ruawake 443
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24359650-5001021,00.html
Diogenes 438
1. dropping it to 0 can work, Japan had it for much of the 1990s, however a period of low interest rate creates over pricing of assets (as everyone spends too much) so if interest rate have to rise (ie US at the moment) the asset bubble bursts and the economy tanks
2. A government can go into serious debt but a. if they get past a ratio and might not be able to service the debt, they losses their credit rating and have to pay higher interest payment. Their currency will depreciate, hyper inflation can happen ie South America in the early 90s. also paying more interest means spending less in future years
3. GST (VAT) is the most efficient tax and also impose tax on black markets, so it should not be removed. As for who to target, it depends what you want. If you target business, they will employ more staff, they will spend more. If you give money to low income earners, they spend it, you might create jobs but also inflation. Tax cut to high earner won’t restart the economy, but will make it easier to retain high earners in the country, which is an investment in future growth
So now the Greens are falling over themselves to praise Allbull LOL. when you think about it Brown and Milne have been calling St Kev some nasty names lately.
Not a smart move getting in bed with the Fibs… as I recall there once was another not very smart party that did that.
“The Australian Greens say they are ready to discuss a can-do arrangement on climate change with new opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull.
Greens leader Bob Brown said he was looking forward to working with Mr Turnbull.
“Malcolm has a lot of pizzazz, he is an interesting character. He will liven up politics a great deal,” he told reporters.
Mr Turnbull could leapfrog Labor on climate change, Senator Brown said.
”
http://news.smh.com.au/national/greens-want-to-work-with-libs-on-climate-20080917-4i76.html
dovif
Every Lib will say they voted for the winner.
The chances of that are Buckley’s and none
“The polling data to prove my point is available on http://www.norepublic.com.au.”
And as has been proven, you can structure a poll to get any result you want.
“Are you happy with the additional cost to the Australian taxpayer of becoming a Republic? – YES/NO
“Do you think Australia needs the extra tier of Government? – YES/NO
“Would you trust an Australian Politician to be head of state? – YES/NO
“Do you think Australia benefits from its close ties to the UK? – YES/NO
“Do you think Australia becoming a Republic would affect your day-to-day life in any way? – YES/NO
“Do you support Australia becoming a Republic? – YES/NO”
QED.. as Bernard Woolley might say.
Philofsydney @ 445: Yes, that does rather explain it. I didn’t actually realise that both Coalition parties elected the Liberal leader.
I didn’t think they did William? The Liberal Party elects its leader, who in is endorsed by the join party-room sitting as Leader of the Opposition. The libs don’t have a vote on the National leader do they?
Another Howard Minister has taken off, in the Senate though so no new election. Have to wonder whether it was Turnbull related…
Senator Chris Ellison quites
dovif
Thanks for that. When your credit rating gets downgraded, why do they put up your interest rates? Aren’t you pushing a country down a slippery slope by doing that? Is there any chance the US credit rating will be downgraded?
While a significant portion of the Liberal Party continues not to believe in climate change, Turnball will be hamstrung if he wants to do any sort of deal with Bob Brown.
I find it amazing that the Nationals would vote for leader of the Liberal Party. It was one of the points disputed at the formation of the Pineapple Party in Queensland that the merger meant the Nationals could now vote in the Federal Liberal Party leader.
Yeah, the nats don’t get a say.
The libs have 55 seats in the HOR and the 32 seats in Senate. Which makes for 87.
There were 86 votes, which raises the question as to who didn’t vote…? Maybe Chris Ellison abstained. More likely somebody wasn’t there.
As for why the number of votes differed from last time… this time twelve months ago the Coalition had 39 seats in the Senate remember. Only have 37 now. That would probably account for it.
Russia seems to be struggling with the whole capitalism thing. The share market tanked 17% and they suspended trading. Emergency talks commenced.
Russia halts trading after 17% share price fall
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ff9306c-83f1-11dd-bf00-000077b07658.html
In terms of numbers, i believe also some members voted when their seats were still in doubt, and have since been turfed out.
Wow, that’s a huge fall. They must have some heavy connections to the US problems to be hit that hard.
Okay, I’m wrong about being wrong then. I did a quick calculation – obviously too quick – which I thought added up to Libs plus Nats MPs equalling roughly the number of votes cast.
Energy prices have been hit very hard, which explains the Russian market’s collapse. This throws the Russian resurgence we were hearing so much about a month or so ago into a new light.
BUT … this is off-topic. Can anyone wishing to discuss it please direct it to the US thread, which is pretty much a de facto anything-goes thread.
The interesting question is – which party room do the Qld Libnats or Natlibs now sit in? If they are a single party, do they get to go to both partyrooms?
I read in Crikey that Chris Ellison has announced his retirement. Interesting that he should do so just after the WA election. Presumably the number four Senate candidate from the election would get first dibs on the casual vacancy – but that’s Michael Mischin, and he’s just been elected to the state upper house. For what it’s worth, the number five candidate was one Jane Mouritz.
I have been wondering what the NSW Labor Party is worry about? Health? Police? Hospital? The S-late Rail?
I found out
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/how-lowe-can-you-go/2008/09/17/1221330870702.html
Dovif, Ruawake, Diogenes,
Taxes in the US are on several levels. I believe that the question one of you asked was referring to the GST equivielent there. That would be what is called the sales tax. Sales taxes are the domain of the state and/or local (city, county) areas. Each state (with possible expection of Deleware and/or Vermont; really dredging up the cobwebs here) has them. Because they are state controlled and set taxes, they are usually different from one state to another. Taxes at the local level you usually don’t see unless you’ve got a big city and they are needing to raise revenue. Problem with cutting these taxes is twofold therefore; 1. since the Fed. government doesn’t set them, they can’t cut them and 2. even if they had some facility to encourage states to cut them [this has been done with some sucess with road monies in the past; i.e force states to raise the drinking age to 21 or they withhold road repair funds], since the amounts vary so wildly, the net affect would vary just as wildly. The feds in the US have much more control over things like income taxes for example which are federally set. [I'll note here too for those who haven't travelled to the US and don't know this (just an aside to the issue of taxes) that they are NOT incorporated into the price of the items as you see here in Australia. That is because they vary so wildly]
It’s not done by countback William – the WA Libs can nominate anyone they like.
465 Adam, that is what Barnaby Joyce was saying a while ago. He can choose which party room meeting he attends and can help elect a liberal leader if he wants to because the merged party has taken over the Queennsland division of the Liberal Party of Australia.
Diogenes, if you might have trouble repaying the loan, they will charge a higher interest rate. I know this increase the odds of not repaying the loan, but that is how credit ratings works.
US has a bigger economy than Australia, so it is more difficult. But if they continue to spend so much on War/Mulitary/Buy out of Banks and Insurance companies? They definitely can, The US$ had depreciated against other currencies for a while now, that is why
One of the Lib senators was overseas and was not available for vote, he was a Turnbull supporter in Nelson Vs Turnbull death match 1
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/ambush-that-ended-in-tears/2008/09/16/1221330837124.html?page=2
Kevin Andrews was overseas and did not vote
Good work, Dovif.
Oh Dear, so Brough took a proposal to the Howard cabinet last year wanting a $30.00 increase in pensions and it was voted down by his cabinet colleges.