Crikey Blogs’ resident clever bastard Possum has come up with the characteristically brilliant idea of inviting readers to guess the result of the next Newspoll and record their prediction in the form in the sidebar. The next poll will be a particularly fascinating case study as it involves the unknown quantity of the Malcolm Turnbull leadership factor. The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.
Prove me wrong, readers!
368 Comments
Now… is that a judgement of Possum’s readers, or yours? Woohoo, intra-network blog fight!
Mine, Jeff. Possum’s site is the gold card executive lounge of Crikey Blogs: Poll Bludger is the third class cabin for the teeming masses of riff-raff.
Prove me wrong, readers!
Obviously we’ll have to fit that into your masthead somehow.
Oh William, riff raff indeed. You are far too kind.
The Wall Street poll. How much will the problems on Wall street drown out media coverage of Turnbull?
William,
It seems as though I can vote on the sidebar poll every time I refresh the page.
Wouldn’t not that allow people to corrupt the poll?
Personally, I don’t foresee any change outside the MoE.
Yes, the poll is flawed because you can submit more than one answer.
Suffice to say, I’ve selected “51% or less” twice, for good measure.
In senate question time, Senator Evans just said — in all seriousness — “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”. You’d hope he’d be following news from the USA and avoiding the kind of dunderheaded phrases the entire US press has criticised in the last 72 hours!
GP – ever thought that might be part of what is being measured?
The simple answer to a poll where you *can* vote multiple times is showing self restraint and *not* voting multiple times.
GP you little cheat! That’s theft!!!
Jeff, our economy is in a somewhat different state to the US at the moment I think
No 8
The fallout from the crisis is shocking.
Bank of Scotland (owner of Aussie BankWest) nearly collapsed, and markets on Wall Street have had $85 billion wiped off their value.
Heh, for sure. But what a time to choose those words…!
Electing a merchant banker to act the alternative Lookerer Afterer of our economy is like appointing Brer Fox to be security guard at the chicken coop, complete with a kit consisting of a set of steak knives, paper serviettes and a bottle of Rosella tomato sauce.
57%.
TPP ALP 57 Liberals/Nationals 43
Another tip During the financial year 2008/09 Australia will not have a recession!
On Lateline last night global economist David Hale forcast more than 300 more banks in the US to go belly up.
My rollover lost more than 12% in the 12 Months so 30th June, 2008 and I bet it has lost that much again since then. By the end of this financial year, it may be worth nothing.
I expect ALL super funds to be hit hard. The ordinary person in the street pays for the follies of the High Street elite again.
58/43 for me
The US does have a lot of very small banks though doesn’t it? Not sure what that kind of a stat really means…
It has a lot of rather BIG ones too and if the 3rd biggest Merchant Bank in the US can go bust, then surely other big ones can too.
They are the ones who got big by taking the biggest risks!
The US have several layers of banking, right down to regional banks, I would expect most of those banks to fold or merge, the situation in America is extremely bad, but good news if there is any is most people could see it coming, and thankfully our Governments have put in palce sound regulation.
The fundamentals of our economy (which Labor inherited from the Howard government) ARE strong. Do the Libs now want to argue otherwise? If they do it onoly reflects on their own financial management.
Three of the five large brockages are history with Morgan Stanley now looking to merge with an Asian firm.
Turnbull may be off the hook.
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/09/18/Supreme_Court_ruling_clears_way_for_settlement_in_HIH_case
No 21
I agree. The idea behind “sub-prime” lending is ludicrous – a bank lending money to people who have no hope of repaying is totally is always a recipe for disaster.
No 22
Yes, the fundamentals are strong. And you’re acceptance of that statement would also suggest the ridiculous disparagement of the Howard/Costello economic record is baseless.
At the end of all this crisis one thing is certain China may well be the most important economy in the world, has anyone ever taken over without invading anyone.
One good thing about having money is you can buy your way out of trouble.
Rudd may end up richer than Turnbull after this.
No 26
your not you’re
GP post 25! You are right, that is why I compare this crisis with the Melbourne 1890s bust for the underlining cause of that was very similar to the U.S Sub-Primal crisis lets just hope the U.S can recover more quickly than Melbourne did.
Although,
{In granting the application, Justice Bergin warned that if negotiations broke down the listed trial date of February 10, 2009 would be postponed.}
It may be just a legal ploy to hold off proceedings till after the next election.
It would be interesting if Turnbull won and became the first PM to be jailed.
Re Newspoll, The Greens on 11.5%
Preferred PM Bob Brown—–40%
Jeff Waugh 8 said:
“In senate question time, Senator Evans just said — in all seriousness — “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”.
You’d hope he’d be following news from the USA and avoiding the kind of dunderheaded phrases the entire US press
has criticised in the last 72 hours!”
What do you expect him to say, Jeff? If he said something like “We’ll all be rooned”, would that make you feel better?
Besides, isn’t it true that our (i.e. Oz) economic funumentals are indeed strong?
No 28
Rudd is safely the richest person in parliament.
Turnbull’s wealth has been estimated at $120 million, yet Therese Rein has a business worth $200 million.
Turnbull and Hockey are busy in QT now trying to bad-mouth the economy via questions on the solvency of Medibank Private. Tanner’s reply – when he eventually got it out after repeated points of order on “relevance” – was that M.P. was in very good financial condition.
The interruptions came about because the Opposition wanted bad news an were wetting their pants so much they couldn’t wait for it.
From thinking Turnbull was a reasonable choice for Opposition Leader (given the competition), I’ve changed my mind. This guy is busting to talk the economy down and has been doing so for several months now while (paradoxically) accusing the government of doing just that. Costello was in on this ploy too with his irresponsible comments in America on the Australian economy.
What possible connection can the Rudd government have with Medibank Private’s investments, given that they would mostly have been locked in a long time ago before this banking meltdown in the US happened? It was a muck-raking question designed to spread doom and gloom and thereby, somehow, by association I suppose, to blacken the government’s (and the economy’s) credibility by scaring the bejesus out of the punters of Voterland.
Smart-arse bankers like Turnbull are how the World got into this mess. Bankers are not the answer. They are the problem. Expect the mums and dads interviewed by Newspoll over the weekend to note this and mark him down for it.
I don’t recall disparaging the Howard/Costello record of economic management. The Libs inherited a thriving economy from Labor and had eleven years of exports-driven boom to preside over – not a very challenging task. Spending got out of hand in the last few years as the Libs tried to buy their way out of trouble, but on the whole the economy remained sound, as it is now. Labor will have the much more challenging task of managing the economy in a global financial crisis, and while faced with an obstructionist Senate.
I reckon the Truffle will get a bounce, ALP to come in 53 2PP, but the reason you keep truffles in tightly sealed containers is that after the initial rush of heady aroma they lose their flavour very quickly once exposed to the outside.
BRW says the Turnbulls are worth $133 million, the Rudd/Reins are worth $60 million. Source: this morning’s Age. What’s your source, GP?
No 38
http://www.smartcompany.com.au/Free-Articles/The-Briefing/Entrepreneur-Therese-Rein-gets-ready-to-spend-.html
This article states that her employment agency earns revenue of $200 million and that she is expected to earn $100 million from selling it.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Business/20071221-Who-are-Australia-s-most-successful-couples-.html
This article states that Rudd & Rein are the most successful power couple, ahead of the Turnbulls (who are 3rd).
It’s to be expected, I suppose, that GP doesn’t know the difference between a company’s turnover and the net worth of its owner. Do you think she just puts the whole $200 mill in her pocket?
See No 40.
39, given that source is nearly a year old, do we know what she’s done with the moola? Blind trust? Regardless of who’s pot is bigger, Truffle will always have more trouble with the rich tag than the Rudd/Rein team, the silver tail perception has already very strongly adhered to him and won’t be brought unstuck by tales of rented apartments in his childhood.
GP, not many business have a PE of 0.5 so I don’t think that’s an accurate estimate. A business with $200 mill revenue (not profit!!) is not worth $100 mill. Any first year business student can tell you that.
All the newspaper articles this morning referenced “Liberal sources” for the $200 mill estimate.
Can we get one independent, credible, realistic source that confirms that figure?
and no 39. If she is currently worth $60 million; the sale of her business would gain her an additional $100 million easily eclipsing Turnbull.
Either way, it is a bit rich for the ALP to accuse Turnbull of being a toff when Rudd & Rein are happily swimming in money.
I suspect the following will happen with Newspoll:
Turnbull’s approval will have a significant undecided group ~ 40%, and a low disapproval ~15%, with an approval ~ 45%.
Rudd’s ratings will be largely unchanged.
Preferred PM ratings will change from ~ 60/15 to ~ 50/30
The Coalition’s vote will increase to 40/41 the ALP’s vote will stay at 44/45 translating to a TPP of ~ 54/46.
Yes I read it, GP. You said the Rudd/Reins were worth $200m. The article you cited says NOTHING about the Rudd/Reins’ worth. I ask again, what is your source for your assertion?
If GP can’t produce a source for his assertion that the Rudd/Reins are worth $200m, rather than the $60m which BRW says they are worth, I am entitled to assume that he has made the figure up.
48, or had it made up for him…
I do GP the credit of assuming he can make up his own numbers.
Tanner, in QT, said a Senate committee on taxation has listed some suggestions to taxation reform. One of them was that the states to have the power to collect income tax as well as the Feds. The Labor members of the committee voted against have this suggestion included, the Libs voted for it. So the “low tax” party wants us to be taxed more.
GP, this must make your blood boil surely.
have should be having
also in QT an independent report done for the Howard govt released yesterday agrees with the action Rudd has taken on Alcops.
No 51
Allowing the states to charge income taxes, I imagine, would be counterbalanced by commensurate reductions in federal income tax. That said, such change would require constitutional amendment and we all know how lowly the chances of success are in constitutional referendums.
Political wisdom has it that in times of economic upheavel people are more inclined to stick with the government of the time. Change is a real worry to them. That’s what was argued in past election build ups by the press and politicians. If that’s the case, how come some argue that this would not apply at the next federal election if economic circumstances remain challenging.?
So GP, you don’t have any problem with the “low tax party” even going down that road at all?
Aren’t you for getting rid of the states GP?
Actually, the states can levy income tax if they want – the only problem is that unless the Cth agrees to reduces federal income tax, the federal tax would be collected first and the state tax would be collected afterwards.
Any state government that chose that particular course of action (in the current economic environment) would surely be on the way out at the next election…
Since GP has not produced a source for his assertion that the Rudd/Reins are worth $200m, rather than the $60m which BRW says they are worth, I conclude that he made the figure up.
No 58
That’s right. My thinking is that the politics are unworkable and would only be ameliorated by constitutional change.
No 56
What are you talking about? Giving the states more fiscal autonomy does not mean I stand for higher taxes.
Of course, had it been the Labor Party voting for such a tax suggestion and the Libs voting against it Labor would be the worst party in the world in GP’s eyes. Not if it’s a Liberal suggestion though, all the ecuses around the place why it would work. Another “legal thieving” tax.
No 57
No.
I think you’d be right Adam
Of course, GP, that’s exactly how the system works in the US – there’s federal income tax and state income tax (at different rates). In fact, there are several states (Texas and Florida come to mind) that have no state income tax at all.
Whether this could translate to Australia is an interesting question – although, given the current federal-state fiscal relationship, I doubt whether such a suggestion would be taken seriously at all…
No 59
Read No 39. She stands to gain at least $100 million from the sale of her business. I confused the figures. Get over it.
The fact of the matter is that Rudd is an utter hypocrite for criticising Turnbull.
No 65
I think a tweaked US model would be good in Australia. By tweaked, I mean that specific responsibilities should be better clarified in the constitution, such that duplication is minimised.
Either way, the states require better revenue raising power; and further, the GST should be properly returned to the states. i.e. if NSW raises $15 billion in GST, they should get $15 billion back.
As far as I know Rudd hasn’t criticised Turnbull for being wealthy.
59, “Bueller? Bueller?”
I thank GP for withdrawing his false assertion. We now agree that the Turnbulls are more than twice as rich as the Rudd/Reins. I agree it doesn’t matter either way, since they all earned their money through honest toil (unless more facts about HIH prove otherwise in Turnbull’s case).
Now GP asserts that Rudd has criticised Turnbull for being rich. Do you have a source for that assertion?
Agreed
No 62
Not at all Gary. The fact that the Libs supported the motion for greater fiscal autonomy for the states conforms with long-held Liberal values. We support the federation model, which entails decentralised power and competition.
There is such a thing as national solidarity. Tas and SA have substantially weaker economies that the resource boom states, for various reasons, and I don’t think there can be any objection to the richer states subsidising them. What needs to stop is the transfer of funds from NSW and Vic to Qld and WA, which no longer need it.
No 70
Did you not watch QT yesterday, with all the petty class warfare? Adam, I know you’re partisan, but you’re certainly not blind or deaf.
Re: the the Stroganoff Affair, whatever the merits or otherwise of the complaints, I find it interesting that Annabel Crabb didn’t declare that the new Parliament House catering company is owned by the wife of fellow Fairfax journo Tony Wright.
SNIP: Disruptive, immature, poor quality comment deleted. Commenter banned – The Management.
No 76
Rolly, I would have thought taxation policy is very relevant. After all, it is legalised theft.
Easy stomach – MayoFeral, now that is going too far. Downer?
No 75
An excellent gravatar MayoFeral.
Someone was reporting on another thread about the price of Costello’s book being slashed. I can tell you that I was at PH today for QT and the bookshop there is still selling it at full price but don’t know how many copies they have sold
…..
Rolly, your post I’m afraid, adds nothing of relevance to the actualities of human existence. How about contributing instead of criticising?
I have yesterday’s QT Hansard in front of me, GP. Can you direct me to the place where Rudd criticises Turnbull for being rich? I don’t seem to be able to find it.
I thought so GP. We need constant reminding of how lucky we all are that the blithering idiot is no longer endangering this country.
But you gotta feel sorry for those poor Cypriots. They’ve already suffered so much!
That’s Kim Jong-Il, surely.
82, and again “Bueller? Bueller?”
No 82
As leader of the party, Rudd endorses the blather that came out of Gillard, Albanese and Tanner.
I thank GP for withdrawing his assertion that Rudd criticised Turnbull for being rich in QT yesterday. That’s two withdrawals in an hour – not bad going.
What Rudd actually said:
the honourable member
who is now the Leader of the Opposition barely a year
ago sat in the cabinet when the then member for
Longman brought forward a proposal to increase the
base rate of the pension by $30 – and it is reported in
the national daily. My question back to the Leader of
the Opposition, in his newfound interest in compassion,
is: why did he not act then? Why did he not put
his hand up, why did the member for Curtin not put her
hand up and why did the member for Higgins not put
his hand up to act on the matter when they had the opportunity
to do so?
What Rudd actually said:
I would say to the Leader of the Opposition,
and he knows exactly what I am talking about,
that, if he was really serious about pension reform in
the 12 years that the Liberal Party was in office—and
let us narrow it right down to the shorter period that he
was in cabinet—why was the matter of pensioner reform
raised only last year, 12 months ago? You did not
do a thing to adjust the pension.
What Rudd actually said:
There is nothing like the member for
Wentworth rising in high dudgeon, I always say. It is a
piece of theatre from central casting as confected as the
member for Wentworth’s recent discovery of compassion
compassion for pensioners – which did not exist as of four
months ago.
I’m willing to put my prognositication on the line. I think there will not be a Talcum bounce in the next newspoll – reflected in TPP.
My guess is that it will be 57-43. Talcum will have a preferred PM of low 20s. While us political tragics and the MSM may be interested in every nuance, the average punter will think “so what”. Replacing Brenda will make no difference.
This may finally get the Liberals to realise that they are the problem, whoever leads is irrelevant.
My humble opinion.
Quite so, Gary @ 81. No more from him.
Now GP says it was Gillard, Albanese and Tanner who criticised Turnbull for being rich in QT yesterday. Perhaps he can direct to the place in Hansard where they said this.
No 93
From Albanese:
No 93
From Tanner:
Tanner continued:
Herald-Sun, 24 February 2008, claims Turnbull to be “Australia’s richest politician … estimated to be worth $150 million”.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23266269-661,00.html
Gary Bruce: I think the idea of a fragmented income tax system is a stupid idea and would only serve bureaucrats and tax collectors. I can see the issues now as each state panders to the electorate’s perceptions of low tax in the same way as Queensland promotes low petrol costs without daylight savings. I guess Tanner needs to find something to try and put his stamp on. Besides State governments can get their share by milking the GST which is in effect also a tax on income.
I will concede Albanese’s comments could be interpreted that way, although he is mainly criticising Turnbull for being a hypocrite rather than for being rich per se.
Tanner’s comments are in fact the exact opposite of what GP alleges. When he says “the Australian people are less interested in whether you come from privilege than whether you represent privilege,” he is saying, the point is not that Turnbull is rich, it is that he defends the privileged.
And Gillard?
What Gillard said in QT about Turnbull yesterday:
It seems remarkable to me that the Leader of the
Opposition can come into the parliament today with
concern about the circumstances of Australians when,
as a cabinet minister in the Howard government, hardworking
Australians would have been not just standing
at his door but pounding on his door to tell him about
the rip-offs under Work Choices. What did the Leader
of the Opposition do about that? Absolutely nothing,
except endorse industrial relations extremism.
The Leader of the Opposition said: ‘Work Choices
was the single most important reform to workplace
relations in any of our lifetimes.’ The Leader of the
Opposition might change in terms of who has the job,
but one thing never changes about the Liberal Party:
they are and always will be the party of Work Choices.
It is a big test for the Leader
of the Opposition. He says he is concerned about Australians.
He wants us to believe him to be a compassionate
man. He supported rip-offs of Australian working
families when they were in government. What we
are waiting to see is whether he is going to support
those rip-offs in opposition. I am not heartened, having
looked at what the Leader of the Opposition has had to
say in other circumstances about workplace relations.
The assumption of Turnbull and the rest of his party is that Labor are illegitimately occupying the Treasury benches and that the people made a mistake last November.
This not only insults the voters, but reveals the Liberals’ ignorance as to their true political position. I’m afraid they’re going to need to spend quite some time in the Naughty Corner to learn the lesson. And no dinner for them either until they say they’re sorry.
The Leader of the opposition arrogantly corrects the Reserve Bank governor by quibbling with the wording of a statement the Governor made…. and this in the middle of the worst financial crisis to hit in most of our lifetimes. He is telling everyone how to behave and , now, what to say. while there may have been no alternative to Turnbull for his party, his withering away into irrelevance will force the Libs to concentrate on the real problem they have: themselves.
The Libs have gone from the sublime to the ridiculous in their quest for a Messiah. From Costello, to Nelson and now Turnbull: the man who never could, followed by the man who never was, followed by the man who never will be.
Local bookstore in Beecroft, Sydney (Lib Heartland): Costello’s book is $44.95. Have sold three in two days.
No 99
Ms Gillard made no comments about the wealth of Turnbull. That was an error.
But Julia did make a great comment about his ego.
Turnbull brought up his own economic circumstances with a reverse reference to his progress from Struuggle St. to millionaire. He now has to wear the perfectly appropriate comments on this subject from his critics, as Rudd did. Perhaps he will triumph in the polls as a result, as Rudd also did?
I doubt it.
The voters know the genuine article when they see it.
Oops hit post to quick
At the NPC.
No 105
I think her ego would easily compete with Turnbull’s.
OK, so we have established that Gillard said nothing about Turnbull being rich, that Tanner in fact explictly said that the point was NOT Turnbull’s wealth, and that Albanese made one or two snide remarks about Turnbull’s hypocrisy. So GP’s assertion that Rudd is guilty of criticising Turnbull for being rich, because he did not repudiate statements by Gillard, Tanner and Albanese criticising Turnbull for being rich, is shown to be false.
Ego is not something that can quantified. Money is, and so are statements in Hansard. Every time GP moves from the rhetorical to the factual, he is proved to be wrong.
Gillard speaks extremely well,a pleasure to hear and read. And none can hold her steely gaze, just ask Howard.
Further to my post 97,
The Herald-Sun (again), 25 February 2007, calls Mr Turnbull “Australia’s richest politician … worth at least $125million, according to the BRW Rich List.”
http://www.news.com.au/sundayheraldsun/story/0,21985,21282616-661,00.html
No 108
Adam, before you claim to be the barometer of fact, please be aware that you continue to falsely proclaim that Australia’s head of state is the Queen and that tax is not theft.
Scorpio @ 31
Turnbull doesn’t face jail in civil proceedings. He does face an order to contribute funds to a judgment in favour of the liquidators.
From a strategic point of view, the current political circumstances advantage the other defendants, who you might expect will squeeze Turnbull and Goldman Sachs to contribute a bit more to early settlement than they otherwise would have. Not much of broader political relevance there. Unless of course, the case doesn’t settle.
No 107
The real question is why Rudd is endorsing such a pathetic class war. One of which he continues to the fan the flames with repeated references to porsche, ferrari and rolls-royce.
GP I haven’t seen that quote yet from Rudd showing that he criticised Turnbull for being rich.
Hang on GP you haven’t proven that to be a fact at all. That is your opinion.
GP 111, I have already demolished the first assertion (I did pay attention in Law 101, although it was a long time ago), and the second is too silly to bother with.
No 115
Tax is legalised theft.
If there was no legal sanction approving taxation, the government’s action would be construed as theft by any definition. Simple. It is not an opinion; but fact.
No 116
No you have not demolished the first assertion. Indeed, you argument that a sovereign cannot be above a head of state is nonsense. I refer you to the constitutional arrangements of Andorra.
If it is legal it can’t be theft. Theft is ILLEGAL.
Off topic but Hamlet Of the Hammock from Higgins book is already in the bargain bin………$20 bucks off…hahhahahaha
rubbish
I’m not going over such a stupid argument again. I enjoy a good debate, but this is just tr*lling.
The Government does not impose a tax – the Parliament does.
So the Queen is a thief.
So we should remove the Queen for thievery, eh GP?
Transportation to the colonies?
1 a: the act of stealing ; specifically : the felonious taking and removing of personal property with intent to deprive the rightful owner of it
b: an unlawful taking (as by embezzlement or burglary) of property
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theft
Case closed. I’m done.
No 119
Homocide by Self defence is legalised murder.
Collecting tax is legal so can’t be theft.
Anyone else care to put their cojones on the line a make a prediction on the next Newspoll?
SNIP: Using the word “troll” to shout down minority viewpoints is not permitted – The Management.
Did anyone see Turnbull walk across lake Burligh-Griffith Or even see it part…is he the Liberal messiah or just a very naughty boy????
Bushfire Bill @ 101 -
The assumption of Turnbull and the rest of his party is that Labor are illegitimately occupying the Treasury benches and that the people made a mistake last November.
For the Howard Party its 1972 all over again. Fortunately, this time around withholding supply shouldn’t be an option, but you can bet on them trying everything to get an early election so the people can rectify their ‘mistake.’
Mayo:
They can always rely on Fielding to help them in the Senate when it comes to the crunch
Thanks to God (that would be Jonathan Green) – the winner gets a free Crikey sub
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/09/18/what-size-a-turnbull-poll-bounce/
Make sure you follow the conditions of entry correctly.
And if you keep the convo over here at PB and just the entries over there at Pollytics plus the sentence of why you predict what you do – everything will work much more smoothly.
Such astounding ignorance, GP. “Homicide” (note spelling) is the taking of a human life, which may be lawful or unlawful according to the circumstances. “Murder” is the unlawful taking of a human life. Mutadis mutandis, “taxation” is (one form of) lawful appropriation of property. “Theft” is the unlawful appropriation of property. Are you incapable of understanding basic legal terminology?
Sounds like it is nothing more than a right-wing mantra with no basis in either fact or logic.
Just incase anyone miss it – here it is…
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ea0b05d406
Please guys give GP a break, we need all the Conservative supporters we can get.
Plus he is a little confused, he has in the past stated that he correctly predicted elections for the past 30 years, he then states that in 30 years he will be 50 something.
So please be gentle and engage in his puerile debating points, cognitive dissonance is a hard thing to deal with.
No 138
I reject your accusation, I have never claimed to have correctly predict elections for the passed 30 years.
No 135
Logically therefore, accepting your own definition, taxation is legalised theft. Just as capital punishment is legalised murder in some jurisdictions.
Yeah we need more conservatives..like where is ESJ…I have picked his avitar for him … a portrait of the Queen to compliment Glenn “Menzie & GP Brittish flag LOLOLOL!
Is this a new “axis of evil”???
Aussieguru01, press CTRL + F5: you’ll note I’m the GOP elephant now.
very clever GP
I dips me lid
GP – I rest my case – http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ea0b05d406
No 144
NOBAMA. I rest my case.
NOBAMA Part II
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvUsedDM9Y8
Will people feel a bit of sympathy for Brenda, he was very slowly creeping up in his PPM ratings? Will they say “poor guy, I kinda liked him”?
Is it possible that over time Talcum will be seen as a poor choice of messiah?
GP I will find your post tomorrow, are you really, truely ruley sure you want me to?
I give him till next Tuesday (Monday nite if you watch Lateline)
I was right about Cozzie’s book. I am right about Turnbull: remaindered before the ink is dry.
Stiglitz: The Fall of Wall Street Is to Market Fundamentalism What the Fall of the Berlin Wall Was to Communism.
Joseph Stiglitz was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001. I spoke with him Tuesday about the Wall Street meltdown
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/stiglitz-the-fall-of-wall_b_126911.html
Hey GP… YES WE CAN!…WIN
Is it just me or does Wilson Tuckey as pictured on mumble.com.au look like a Nelson/Howard/Turnbull hybrid? (with a bit of imagination of course)
As for Turnbull’s first poll, (with a nod again to Brent) Turnbull strikes me as a conviction politician, loads of charisma, ready to reinvigorate the Liberal Party and take the electorate by force, etc, etc. Get what I’m saying?
“Snap”.
No 149
News from the The Bolshevik Crusader is not of interest.
No 147
Please, do find that post.
This is what all journalists should do to Democratic candidates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cM6jtqTf8qM
Q&A should be interesting tonight.
I was going to have an early night for a change but it may be worthwhile to stay up for it.
Jack the Insider has a good blog on Costello’s book:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/memo_costello_timing_is_everything/
And also it seems Hockey won’t get shadow workplace relations:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24366321-601,00.html
(though Julie Bishop still seems to be in the treasury job)
“Tomorrow the Liberals’ federal executive will determine if the party’s federal council should be advised to register the LNP as the Queensland division of the Liberal Party. ”
So if the Qld Nats get to vote for the Lib leader I wonder how the numbers stack up? Is this why the leadership was sorted this week?
I’m waiting until Cossies book comes down to 25 bucks then ill consider purchasing it.
45 dollars you’ve got to be kidding me!
Me thinks Tony Smith is a goner, one of the more vocal Nelson backers.
I suspect Pyne to get a better job and Keenan to be promoted both Turnbulls numbers men.
Has anyone else had a read of the Shrike’s analysis today? Would be interested to know what others thought of it. The most interesting part I found to be his observation that Turnbull has little real support in the party, given his relatively short time as a parliamentarian, and now, in the spotlight of the leadership, little time to build same. So, apart from some initial bbbounce in support on the 2ppv, it may not last. I’ve noted some commentary saying that the global economy flatlining, or even the U.S. economy flatlining, will favour any non-incumbent, given what happened politically with the onset of the Great Depression, but I’m not so sure. That people behaved in a particular way politically in relation to a catastrophic economic event, doesn’t, in my view, necessarily mean they will behave the same the next time there’s a catastrophic economic event. Surely, it would depend as much as anything on how incumbent gov’t. responded to such events, maybe also whether or not people thought the gov’t. was able to have done anything effective to stave off or mitigate the effects? My go at the next Newspoll is 54 ALP, 46 Coalition.
It’s interesting HSO. He makes a good point about the republic and climate change…
The fact that Turnbull is apparently considering promoting Sophie Mirabella suggests he has certainly in the thrall of the far right of the party.
Desire to lead and desire to win makes for very strange bedfellows…
The problem for MT however, is can he keep down his desire to remake the Party policy in his own image. I doubt Abbott, Mirabella, Hawke, Bishop et al will ever get to a point where they will stomach a “small ‘l’ liberal party”.
Glen
Any thoughts on Minchin? I am sure Talcum would like to take him down a peg or two. Can he do it?
Rudd tried as much as he could to avoid answering Kerry’s question with respect to Turnbull’s wealth. Rudd refused to order his subordinates to cease the attacks. Hypocrite.
I also thought there were more double standards when he criticised Turnbull with respect to his comments on the Reserve Bank which Rudd say have consequences for the stability and confidence in the financial system. Yet, in January this year Swan was talking about inflation genies being out of the bottle.
Rudd is despicable.
GP
-40 is the same in both the Farenheit and Celsius scale.
No 161
Sophie Mirabella would be an excellent candidate for shadow minister for Indigenous Affairs.
Hmmm, i dunno that he has the power to deal with Nick, however if he’s leader for longer than Nelson i suspect maybe Eric Abetz could take charge in the Senate perhaps?
I will laugh if Abbott keeps his lower grade portfolio after this reshuffle!
Don’t hold back there, GP. You’ll probably be calling me a c****e for thinking that in my opinion, that Rudd did well in the interview with Kerry O’Brien and that he is growing into the job.
No 167
I’m banned from using that word.
Rudd is Prime Bureaucrat.
“Get the car scrotum we’re nearly done here”.
Got to love Clarke and Dawe.
No 166
Abbott should get IR.
GP
I doubt she’d survive long – I’m sure a lot of Aboriginal people want to do something to her after her actions in February
Talcum would be wise to pick someone who was not a cabinet minister in the Howard Govt. for IR.
Else the attack is predictable “You supported Work Choices”. Must be a cleanskin.
Grog @ 161. Yes, if he can’t take the party with him, where he wants to go, the Shrike and you, may well be right. I hadn’t heard or read that he was considering promoting Sophie Mirabella. Well, well. If Turnbull denies his own values in the service of his ambition, he will indeed be dead in the water, because he won’t be able to stand it.
No 172
I’m sure Wilson Tuckey would relish the job to go face to face with Red Julia.
TP @ 109,
“Gillard speaks extremely well,a pleasure to hear and read. And none can hold her steely gaze, just ask Howard.”
Ought to be real fun to see her going eye to eye with Turnbull next week
…… [Rudd in NYC all week]
No 168. Hello GP. Yep I know you are. I was being polite and complying with William’s wishes. You know, treating other people as people?
The fact I struggle to remember what portfolios Abbott and Hockey currently have suiggests, they haven’t really cut through.
Coudn’t believe Hockey’s questions today about Medibank – he was thisclose to suggesting the fund is about to go belly up.
No 171
Mirabella’s unborn baby was labelled a Demon by Belinda “Don’t You Know Who I Am?” Neale; so I’m sure she would weather being called a fascist racist by the Aboriginal industry.
175: I’m with you there. Also for all those who at the start of the year keep going on about Rudd’s control freak nature; the fact he feels he can leave Julia in charge during a parliamentary week suggests he’s not worried about her dropping the ball.
Bronwyn Bishop should get booted out of the shadow cabinet – how the hell did she end up there in the first place???
As for Hockey – stick him back in health (I’d think he’d be better suited for that) and put Abbott as shadow I-R or immigration – they’re two portfolios where his partisanship may actually be good for the Coalition.
Minchin should go back to Finance, Bishop (Julie) to Treasury and Dutton (perhaps) to I-R…
ruawake @ 169. Introducing Malcolm by Clarke and Daw, another miniature masterpiece. And, GP, before you start frothing at the mouth about them being c*****s, who lambast only the LNP or Coalition, a couple of weeks ago, they did a brilliant number on Rudd. Cracked me up, it did.
Good to see Ms Mirabella took a break from her maternity leave to vote for Talcum. I wish her a long and fruitful life expanding the Mirabella family.
No 181
HSO, I like the ABC. Indeed I rarely watch other FTA channels any more. Radio National 630 Sydney is permanently tuned in on my car radio. (Interesting aside, it is 666 in Canberra. LOL)
I have a problem with the balance of some of its journalists; namely Liz Jackson and Tony Jones.
And Clarke and Daw are always hilarious.
No 180
Bronny is not a member of the Shadow Cabinet. She’s in the outer shadow ministry as spokesperson for Veteran’s Affairs. Which suits her well.
I find GP’s assertion of “taxation is legalised theft” as a fact a bit disingenious, even if we accept GP’s own definition of what theft is. The ‘Collins Australian Pocket Dictionary of the English Language’ (which I’m sure everyone agrees to be THE definition of English Language Usage) defines thefts as the act of stealing and stealing to be “taking from someone without permission or unlawfully”. A “legalised illegal act” would like saying a pregnant virgin.
And if we use GP’s own defintion (or make great play on the OR in the Collins definition) “taxation is legalised theft” is still not a fact, at best it is a truism that uses emotive language to stir sentiments in the audience, a real ramble-rousing statement, something the Daily Telegraph would bandy about. “War is murder” is another great one.
Rudd on the 7.30 Report didn’t miss a beat and none of that mumble-stumbling he used to do when talking too fast. He is becoming quite formidable. Can’t wait for the pre-election debates.
GP @ 185,
Surely there’s someone better qualified (and with a bigger political future) than Bronwyn Bishop in the Coalition ranks…
Maybe Margaret May or another prominent Turnbull backer will get Veteran’s Affairs in the reshuffle, while Brownyn can go back to the backbench, where she can kill time before she gets turfed out in the next preselection for Mackellar (or she chooses to retires…)
No offence Aurelian, but I was kind of hoping that discussion had played itself out.
There you go, GP, if you’ve got a heart beat and a sense of humour, you’re probably a human being, with all of our foibles, capacity for mistakes, exposure to adverse events, and all of the joy, contentment, creativity and love of which we are capable.
Lighten up, kiddo, your political opponents are not necessarily your enemies.
No 186
Would you not agree that capital punishment is legalised murder? It certainly fulfils the mens rea and actus reus required for murder.
The act of taxation also fulfils, in my view, the mens rea and actus reus for theft. The only difference is that taxation is legal.
Also, I do not intend to pursue the tax is theft debate any further. It’s getting repetitive.
No 188
Bronny is popular in the Veteran community and she is perfectly able to administer its fairly blithe responsibilities anyway.
Generic Person
I see you’ve fought a lone battle arguing your case taxation is ‘legalised theft’ I agree with you it is
paye wage earnes pay there correct tax , and non paye earners hav a discretion under th Act to minimise there tax liability , and given th thousands of pages in Taxation Act coices ar a plenty for even an average accountant , then there’s more creative share type schemes , trusts , overseas tax havens , coillins/pitt street farmers …thats th legal side…of course in trading business receiving cash always accounts for all cash received as revenue …then there ar those end year stocktakes coincidently done after a result is achieved…and auditors yes numerous corporate failures show there prudential worth
So all in all Generic person , agree taxation is legalised theft , for whom paye tax payers ar paying for those ‘theeving’ non paye tax payers
Kerosine baths anyone?
173 HSO I got it from here:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,24366321-601,00.html
The Australian Online also understands the new Liberal leader will reward several ambitious backbenchers who backed him in this week’s leadership ballot with posts in the outer ministry, including Liberal MP Scott Morrison and key NSW Right backer senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells.
Mr Turnbull is also tipped by insiders to reward feisty Victorian Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella, another conservative who broke her maternity leave to vote in the leadership ballot.
“feisty” must be one of those irrgular verbs – I am feisty; you are aggressive; he is a belligerent, illogical extremist….
Mea culpa William. I left this screen on the tail end of the discussion and wandered off to watch a few episodes of Blackadder, came back and posted, and it seems the conversation had moved on. As usual I end up striking when the iron is cold.
187 [Can’t wait for the pre-election debates.]
Yep only about 790 sleeps
No 196
I’ve had the utmost pleasure of meeting Mirabella and Senator Fierravanti-Wells, as well as well as listening to them speak. To the displeasure of lefties, I’d argue they are both inspirational women!
No 197
Aurelian I’d very much like to read your response to No 191. And thereafter we can put it to rest.
“the Aboriginal industry”
You do know that’s a racist term, right GP?
No 201
No it isn’t a racist term and I resent your implication that I’m a racist.
The Aboriginal Industry is that which squandered the billions of dollars of transfers to Aborigines and yet they are still are the most disadvantaged people in our society.
No 202 – insinuation not implication.
199, yes, both of those women inspire a lot of things in me…
Well, in trepidation of the Moderator’s boot, I will make further comment: the fact you are asking for my agreeance dispels it as a “fact”. A fact wouldn’t be agreed upon, its a fact. If I bothered to pay attention to the statements “capital punishment is legalised murder” and “taxation is legalised theft” I probably would agree as I probably would with “War is murder” (that doesn’t make them “facts” though) its just I steer clear of such statements due to their emotive content – they are not worth saying unless you are desiring to carry your audience with you into the streets bearing flaming torches and pitchforks. Their intellectual content is worthless.
My post, by the way, is opinion, not fact
Yeah, I wonder who he will be debating?
GP
no white racist – including Sophie Mirabella – gets to decide what’s racist or not – she’s been called out for being racist by the Aboriginals over her behaviour with regard to the Stolen Generations and i agree with the Aboriginals on that
No 205
I disagree that their intellectual content is vacuous. It is a worthy debate to have. My argument is purely one from a legal perspective, whereas opponents justify taxation with a theory of a social contract.
For the record, governments would not function without taxation and as such I don’t advocate for the abolition of taxation.
No 208
The Aborigines classify any negative criticism toward them as racist.
Indeed the terms racist and genocide are so overused and misused that they worthless.
I don’t imagine this discussion is headed anywhere worth going to. Can we move on please.
Errr not tonight thanks. I didn’t get too dirty or sweat too much today and the lice seem to have gone now too.
** COMMENT DELETED **
That was self-deletion by Aurelian, BTW. S/he could just as easily have not hit “post comment” of course, but each to their own.
As one of PollBludger’s few (perhaps only) triplej listeners, I actually heard something that made Christopher Pyne look good today. Pyne has been on about fair trade chocolate recently and has written to Rudd about it. Of course, as soon as I heard Pyne was doing anything, my BS detector switched my brain off to conserve energy.
But it turns out that Pyne is on to something. 70% of the world’s cocoa comes from the Ivory Coast and Ghana. There have been suggestions that it’s pretty crappy over there. Triplej had a reporter on who had gone there. Almost all the cocoa is harvested by children who are captive slaves, often sold from surrounding countries like Mali. There are 200,000 of them. Amazingly the kids didn’t even know that the cocoa pods they were harvesting were used to make chocolate.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23509866-2682,00.html
Nonsense. I was censored.
I take it no one heard me on Hack last week then.
William. I did. You were brilliant.
“..motor mouth approach to politics..” Swan on Turnbull during QT
I had just formulated a iron clad argument that would carry Australia into the green technocracy of the future when Rupert Murdoch reached across cyberspace and sunffed out my comment
I noticed that not many posters on this site have entered the competition over on Possum’s blog.
People aren’t scared of making a commitment or prediction are they?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/09/18/what-size-a-turnbull-poll-bounce/#comment-10922
I hope it’s available on-line. Sorry to miss it.
The show is getting rave reviews too.
Here’s one.
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/09/18/ABC_delivers_panel_show_with_balls_
Bilbo
are you going to make a prediction on poss’s blog?
222 shhh scorpo! I want that prize!
No 220
Oh, and I’m sure our inglorious Treasurer is an authority on economy of speech. The bumbling economic-illiterate can barely enunciate a sentence without resorting to lame cliches.
I was on the radio show, Scorpio. Didn’t know there was a TV one.
No 216
As the Economist concludes:
http://artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/articles/economist-goodfood.htm
Fair Trade is nonsense.
220,
Easily the best line of the day by far
……
Good to see bipartisan common sense on this:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/18/2368549.htm?section=justin
Opposition foreign affairs spokesman Andrew Robb says Russia has already met its international obligations.
But he says he accepts that the Prime Minister wants to consider the conflict in Georgia before making a decision.
Initial polls on Turnbull’s satisfaction rating rather than PPM more important to see whether middle voters buy Turnbull as a silvertail or an acceptable but toffy politcan and his republic involvement will aid him If Turnbull gets over that , he will not be a pushover like Nelson & limit Labors 2010 election likely win below a landslide
Base Liberal vote should rise 2% to 3% but some of that will get lost in 2 PP figure with downward % movement in ‘others’ and Greens
What are the results of the Newspoll Survey?
Maxine McKew jousting with the Liberal’s Tony Abbot on Q&A tonight. Wonder how Tony will go, usually he cant cope with women.
The reason African countries are poor is that their products are shut of their natural market, western Europe, by EU protectionism, which exists mostly to protect French farmers and the politicians they vote for. The person most responsible for the perpetuation of poverty in Africa over the past decade has been Jacques Chirac. Africa needs free trade, not Fairtrade or any other gimmick.
Thomas Paine “that’s bullsht” as Tony would say jj LOL!
Grog back @ 196, I think it was. If that’s true, he’s sold his soul, and both he & the LNP are buggered. Both twin bases will desert them, particularly as they don’t have control of the pork anymore.
William,
Do you have a link to the radio show that you were on?
And as for Fairtrade – what a load of utter rubbish! And the fact that a Liberal party frontbencher is endorsing the concept shows just how far from the concept of liberalism the party has drifted…
237 HSO. I agree. I think Turnbull believes he can only get a little bit pregnant…
And now for something completely different (and off-topic):
The Palin-inspired bounce for McCain is more or less dead – poll out in Indiana shows Obama +3:
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076
P.S. Apologies William, but I didn’t know where else to post this..
There used to be a US election thread – can’t find it now!
GP @ 233. Sigh! It won’t be out till next week, hence the competition to try and guess the result. Really, GP, the sooner you learn that politics is about more than just stating your own prejudice/s about any given topic, and start listening to people who may have a much wider range of experience than yourself, the sooner you may have something interesting to say.
William, at the risk of being banned, GP really is boring as he won’t concede when people have demonstrably demolished his assertions, and just keeps repeating them, over and over, and over.
Maxine looking very glamorous on Q&A tonight and is very sharp.
Tony Abbott is following the same pattern as his fellow Libs on this program.
Trying to defend the indefensible and getting a bit cranky when it isn’t working.
If only they wouldn’t keep trying to take us and the audience as fools and admit their mistakes, they would be t5aken more seriously.
I can’t see it happening though. They are too well trained in this by Howard.
That Tony “people skill” Abbott is really a pain in you know where on QandA. He is so smug and self righteous, it makes me want to be euthanized.
Is Abbott the only Liberal accepting invites onto TV? You can’t switch on the box without seeing his wingednut visage.
240 swing lowe…I see William has put up a new US eleciton thread:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/09/18/us-election-minus-48-days/
Swing Lowe @ 238: no, but you can hear me here:
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2365161.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2337391.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2362790.htm
Thanks William.
One more quick request – could you take me out of moderation on the US thread?
So has Turnbull reserved his seat for his Trucking Adventure?
Will he sit in a truck for 12 hours like his predessor did to understand the hardships of truck drivers?
If he doesn’t go on his Trucking Listening tour does that mean he won’t understand the hardships of a truck driver, or is he admitting that nelson’s Trucking Adventure was just a cheap media stunt?
Pol,
Not trucking likely.
Maxine is whipping Tony, poor Tony all over again.
Swing Lowe
The Hack podcasts are here for last week, but I think William was on the week before. The Monday program has a good interview with someone living in a predominantly aboriginal town who was VERY excited about the Regional Royalties program. That interview is followed by one with Grylls, who sounds like a nice bloke (so he won’t last long). Grylls talks about how the Royalties program will benefit indigenous communities, which I hadn’t thought of before. He also talks about how his model of a separate Nat party might be the model for the future.
http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hack/
251 TP I shall refrain from stating the obvious…
William, I’m sure JJJ would send you a copy of the show if you asked them.
I hear Hack is going to be on ABC2 soon – is that correct?
Sie haben recht Swing Lowe.
http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hackhalfhour/default.htm
Danke schon, steve
Hands up for Malcolm Turnbull to make Tony Abbott the Shadow Minister for Administrative Affairs???
Yes, Hack is going to start a TV show. Steve Kinnane will front it. He is a brilliant mind and interviewer. Radio National stole him from triplej about a year ago. I expect that one of the networks will steal him soon.
Lots of Lib pollies won’t go on Hack as they get a fairly torrid time. There were a few very brave ones who’d regularly front up, like Barnaby Joyce, Joe Hockey and Amanda Vanstone. Turnbull will never go on again after a pre-election debate last year; he was used as a human pinata.
Glen,
What exactly does the Shadow Minister for Administrative Affairs do? (More to the point – what does the Minister for Administrative Affairs – if such a post exists – do???)
Nice one Glen
Swing Lowe – get thee to the Yes Minister DVDs
Is Turnbull going to take a leaf out of the Pineapple Party’s book and like Springborg have Shadow Ministers who don’t actually shadow anyone or anything in the real world?
In Queensland they waste half of QT asking questions to the wrong Minister, it a stupid
unworkable concept and if he does that the Government will eat Turnbull before he begins.
And Yes Prime Minister, all first term PMs look like Jim Hacker in some respects Howard did and so to has Rudd.
Rudd, needs to focus on initiatives that are….quick, simple, popular, cheap.
Quite frankly his ETS scheme looks to me like a courageous decision, especially in light of financial difficulties.
I only hope Stephen Smith has a tele in his office so he can keep up to date on foreign affairs rather than rely on the foreign office (DFAT) cables.
Maxine rocks!
Abbott is a tool!
And where do they get the audiences for Q&A?
According to Bolt, from the Greens supporters mailing list.
I got the impression there were quite a few Young Libs in there tonight!
Nah, Glen. If you saw Rudd on the 7.30 Report tonight, you (well, I) saw someone who was growing into the position. He’s beginning to look formidable. And there are some other people around in the gov’t/ who are formidable. Seems to me they’ve got greater depth and breadth than the Opposition, and this could be a good thing, as we’re in a very, very bad economic situation.
Bob Ellis has read $weetie’s book.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2367943.htm
Maxine McKew had a terrible performance tonight, especially at the end where she had no bloody clue. Sorry, it’s the truth.
No 265
The audience was evenly balanced tonight. Some weeks it is overtly Liberal, others very Greens/Labor. I’ve been in the audience a few times – it is so easy to get on.
I agree that near the end Maxine fell into the trap of trying to answer a question she shouldn’t have tried to answer, not having all the neccessary background and data. She will learn.
SNIP: Personal attack deleted – The Management.
william
thanks for answering my @225
SNIP: Personal attack deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Personal attack deleted – The Management.
No 272
The joust with Abbott, she did pretty well. So did Abbott. She is intelligent (and rather attractive for someone in her 50s) and she’ll improve, but frankly she appears airheaded when she hasn’t done her research.
Gusface, the answer is no.
“but frankly she appears airheaded when she hasn’t done her research.” GP, that really applies to anyone in that position.
No 279
But for someone of her seemingly high intellectual calibre, you would think she’d be more knowledgeable. I don’t know, maybe I wrong.
Maxine has only been Parliament 12 months and his well ahead of a standard politcan of 12 months experience , Tony Abbott’s long experience means he cann’t get any better Liberals ar unwise using him he is far less persuasive & less attractive to middle voters compared to a joe hockey or mesmeralda Julie Bishop
No 281
Abbott is very persuasive. Hockey is more well-known but when under pressure in a debate on Q&A a few weeks ago, he did not perform as well.
SNIP: Off-topic complaint about moderation deleted – The Management.
That’s who Costello should have got to co-author his book.
It would have been a cracking read and sell like hot cakes.
Steve 269! I don’t like Bob Ellis but that is an Interesting book review and in many ways that sums up the Howard years, Peter Costello seemed to have some ideas but when it came time to look at those ideas they turned out to be shallow statements.
I would have imaged considering Costello having been around the Legal and Politcal world for thirdy years that he would have seen and heard many Intereasting stories and have came up with ideas regarding all the debates here and internationally but this appears lacking.
harry,
Just to cheer you up!
I’d rather Mez take over shadow treasurer after all she’d get your attention with those eyes, Robb would just bore you to tears…can’t he be the shadow minister for industry or something.
Let’s face it on Costellos book, how many people have such an interest in politics and Costello to want to throw away 45 bucks on a coffee table book???? No wonder it’s not selling, I wonder if we can compare the sales of Lathams book and Cossies?
Will any Laborite on here by Unca Howies Memoirs??
Did Paul J Keating write his???
I’d rather Mez take over shadow treasurer after all she’d get your attention with those eyes, Robb would just bore you to tears…can’t he be the shadow minister for industry or something.
Let’s face it on Costellos book, how many people have such an interest in politics and Costello to want to throw away 45 bucks on a coffee table book???? No wonder it’s not selling, I wonder if we can compare the sales of Lathams book and Cossies?
Will any Laborite on here buy Unca Howies Memoirs??
Did Paul J Keating write his???
Sleep well, everyone. Talk to you again about a week later & take care of each other, there’s no-one else to do it.
No 288
I bought Van Onselen’s JWH biography. Very well written I might add.
GP,
Who got murdered, and who done it?
Nope Keating hasn’t done his.
I’ve always considered Bob Ellis to be one of the better authors in the country. Always fascinating and not afraid to call it as he sees it. I’ve read a few of his books over the years and consider him far among the best. The Brisbane writers festival is on this weekend and if I strike authors 3/4 as good as him it will be a treat.
GP
I note in an earlier post on this thread you have reiterated your strange contention that taxation is legal theft. On an earlier thread I pointed out that your argument is a contradiction in terms, which you denied. I then posted the following, which you may have missed because it was the last post on that thread.
Yes the expression “legal theft IS a contradiction in terms.
If the definition of theft is”the ILLEGAL taking of someone else’s property, then “legal theft” translates into “the legal, illegal, taking of someone else’s property.
Sort of like Sir Humprhey Applebee’s reference to “an unstable kind of stability”.in discussing the security of St George’s Island with the Minister.
For a mostly clear thinking and fair minded person like yourself I am surprised that you would resort to such word games.
No 294
Darn, this argument has already been had.
Suffice to say, taxation is legalised theft in the same way that capital punishment is legalised murder.
GP 295
You’re using another contradiction in terms – in effect you’re saying – “capital punishment is a legal illegal act”.
I share your apparent disapproval of the death penalty and I’m not trying to be pedantic here, I just don’t think you can make a sound case. But I’m willing to agree to disagree..
No 296
I’m making the argument from a legal perspective, whereas your using simple semantics which is why you’re hitting a road block.
Capital punishment fulfils the actus reus and mens rea requirements of murder, yet it is legal in some jurisdictions. Thus, you must logically conclude that it is legalised murder. Same principle for tax.
Aargh.
GP (297)
Presumably you are using latin expressions – with which I am not familiar.
So as I said, for now I’ll agree to disagee and move on – while reserving the right to re-visit the topic if or when I have anything further to add.
A dog fight over the spoils of defeat between Mesmeralda Bishop and Googler Robb who wants to get as far away from overseas travel as possible. Proving once again just how much the Liberals will do to cling to Opposition.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/robb-v-bishop-in-lib-power-play/2008/09/18/1221331115052.html
In fact it is all such a mess that the spoils of defeat could be decided Monday rather than today.
Mr Turnbull was expected to unveil his new front bench today but will now delay it until at least Sunday. He may even wait until Monday, when the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, will be en route to New York, where he will spend the week and miss four parliamentary sitting days.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/robb-v-bishop-in-lib-power-play/2008/09/18/1221331115052.html
It wasn’t too kind the day she appeared with Turnbull at his first press conference.
Hola mi Amigo Mexicano @ 21
The current US kerfuffle is exactly why Keating’s banking deregulkation was the WRONG thing to.. as was flogging off the Commonwealth Bank.
GP @ 26
Forget for a moment that the stats have been fiddled by succesive administrations, or that current orthodox free-market economic theories are basically as valid as ID, but the so-called strong economy was in place before Howard – check the stats immediately prior to his election in 96.
I look forward to Swan destroying her in parliament
#302
which bit?
The Queensland Liberal Party has gone cap in hand to Turnbull demanding that he scrap Nelson’s legacy.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24368845-601,00.html
GP @ 199
Monsterbella and Fierypit-ofhells are inspirational alright.. it’s just they inspire spontaneous regurgitation
So it’ll soon be a “Crushed Pineapple” Party?
BTW G’day Steve!
306 So it’ll soon be a “Crushed Pineapple” Party?
evan, it’s all very well for the Queensland Liberals to be crying after agreeing to such a self inflicted foot shooting but what they have failed to explain from day one is the role they expect to play as second fiddle to a Queensland National Party who in turn are under the financial influence of one Mining magnate.
Why they think that this pyramid structure would win them the next Queensland election is so far beyond reality as to make the whole process laughable.
A foot shooting, followed by cork popping, followed by crying and gnashing of teeth is not a formula for success as far as I can tell.
I’m sure that the next part of this never ending saga will be a full on battle in the courts. Especially if the Federal Liberals jump the wrong way today.
So will Turnbull’s new front bench announcement coincide with Rudd’s meeting, greeting and addressing the financial monarchy in NY? Good contrast. He should get in now while there is a little more clear air.
TP, I think it will take a couple of days to convince the Googler with the economics degree not to take Shadow Treasurer off Julie. Her experience in that area is beyond doubt because she is a Liberal lawyer. That title entitles one to any Liberal Shadow Ministry.
No 309
What is wrong with being a lawyer? After all, the purpose of parliaments is to pass and debate legislation, a process which is benefited by an affinity for the law.
Turnbull offers political truce on economy.
“We are offering the Government to sit down with them right now, today, or on the weekend, or Monday, and look at the measures that can be undertaken immediately to provide greater security, greater stability for Australian families and businesses in these challenging times,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/19/2368867.htm
Talcum still thinks he is in Government. The obvious response is pass the budget.
Yup. Stop opposing the LCT, the Medicare surcharge change and the alcopops tax
Turnbull’s almost suggesting we institute a government of national unity. Next thing he’ll be putting himself up as Treasurer to replace Swan (in the country’s interests, of course).
No 312
Nope all tax increases should be opposed.
“Nope all tax increases should be opposed.”
All tax increases are opposed GP, it’s just that your crowd is a minority .
No 315
Raising taxes at a time when the economy is in a downturn is lunacy. Further, everyone knows my opinion on the stupid LCT.
GP, when combined with the $31b income tax cuts, are taxes being raised as a proportion of GDP?
316 “Raising taxes at a time when the economy is in a downturn is lunacy.”
But nowhere near as insane as cutting services which is always the Liberal way.
Turnbull doesn’t realise it but he is offering up his best chance of government at the next election. Mind you I still don’t believe the Libs will win but if the Libs are confident that they are the better managers of the economy, going into a bipartisan approach takes away their economic political stick. No longer will they be able to hit the government over the head re the economy. Also, if our economy goes belly up and they’ve taken this bipartisan step they along with Labor will be held responsible. Rudd would be a fool not to take this on IMHO.
Iemma gone.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24370217-5001028,00.html
No 320
Good riddance.
I’m shocked that you would say that GP.
322 Gary, it’s all part of the newfound bipartisanship teething problems, I’d say.
+1
No 322
And when Nathan Rees is smashed in 2011, I will equally say good riddance.
The arrogance of Turnbull astounds even this hard-nosed old blogger.
I suppose he thinks he can correct a few of the mistakes, Labor are making before they become too damaging: dotting the odd “i” and crossing the odd “t” I suppose. This is all contingent upon Rudd giving up “petty politics” about turnbull’s life story, of course.
Un-be-bloody-lieveable.
Just watching Sky news midday news show and Rudd’s response to Turnbull asking for bipartisanship on the economic crisis was very good and I’m glad Rudd didn’t miss the obvious retort – “try starting with the budget in the Senate if you want bipartisanship”
No 326
BB, you’re needlessly beating it up.
325 – Oh please GP I can’t take too many more of these shocks. Honestly, what else would anyone expect you to say?
327 – Mal walked straight into that one but I still think his approach is not a bad one for both parties actually (as discussed earlier).
Curtin realised how hamstrung he would have been by agreeing to a national unity ticket with the UAP in the 1940s. They needed to be told they were not the natural government of Australia in no uncertain terms. With Menzies and the rest of them urging we remain in North africa, thus sacrificing Australia to the Japanese, Curtin’s point was proved.
Rudd would be a fool for accepting this ever-so-generous offer. It’s pure chutzpa and may well be de rigeur in Bent St. or the board room of Goldman-Sachs spruiking some dodgy derivative package, but not in the real world.
BB oddly reminiscent of the likelihood of the WA Nats doing a deal to rule with Labor. All Turnbull needs to do is pass the budget for now, anything else is just grandstanding.
I must say BB you make a good point and I’m not wedded to the idea but I think it would pull the “economic teeth” of the opposition. If it was bipartisanship in one area only not a national unity government as such. Probably unachievable and unrealistic but it would be good if it could be done.
ruawake 311
Spot on.
Rudd should make hay with a ‘withering’ attack on Turnbull for his confected concern for the economoy where he is determined to block every budget measure in the Senate trying to ripp a dangerous hole in Australia’s budget surpluses.
If Mr Turnbull were truly serious about his concern for Austrlia’s economy he would in the Senate allow the elected government to get on with the business of governing instead of at every turn endeavouring to delay, obfuscate, derail and block the very measures designed to help sure up the economy. Though we see here Mr Turnbull talk about being concerned about the economy, he is fresh from only yesterday, with incautious language, undermining the Govenor of the Reserve Bank. If the leader of the Opposition was truly concerned with health of the Australian economy he would ensure that he and his party stood aside whilst the government implements its budget strategies instead of playing the spoiler for cheap political points. I remind Mr Turnbull that in these global economic times it is not appropriate to play these cheap political point scoring games. I call on Mr Turnbull to instruct the his members in the Senate to pass those very bills that help ensure the health of our economy. blah balh..
No 334
Suring up the economy does not involve raising taxes and it is simply ignorant to argue as such.
Rudd is now dealing with a player of equilavent nous
young talcum is aimimng to set himself as “Rudd Lite”
the next week or so will set the tone of the fibs approach-it truly is game on now
It’s “shoring up” not “suring up”.
should be “equivalent”
Barnaby turns down front bench job.
“At times there will be issues that there will, possibly, be a difference on, so on this occasion I humbly decline,” Senator Joyce said.
Now why would Talcum be offering Barnaby a front bench gig?
He is getting really, really bizarre.
Ru
Talcum is circling the wagons
If you remember the rudder made sure early on who was with him and who was agin him
as a wise man said “better to know thine enemy than thine friend”
esp in regards to politics!!!!
Morgan 55.5 – 44.5
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4320/
Talcum should know very well what Barnaby’s response would have been.
Still bizarre in my view.
Raising $1b in taxes while lowering $31b in other taxes does not amount to ‘raising taxes’ and it is simply ignorant to argue as such
Gary B., no, no, no…
Turnbull’s whole strategy is to make Labor look like they don’t have the confidence to look after the economy as well as a professional merchant banker and his cronies – all naturally gifted in matters economic – could.
Not that they ever would, but if Labor fell for this it would only entrench the idea in the Coalition’s mind that they had a hope of winning the next election. IT might work on the public’s mind too, in that they would think, “Maybe Labor really doesn’t have the cojones to manage the economy on their own?”
Forget the voters, I might start thinking the same too, as might many others on the Left, even here.
It is a total, cheeky and completely avoidable trap for Rudd.
A good omen for Labor, though. I have always said Turnbull’s arrogance and over-confidence would be his downfall, and this is a good sign he “full of himself” at an early stage. An uppity Opposition Leader needs to be put firmly in his place. Cheeky sod.
347 – I see you point BB and you’re probably right. Besides Rudd has already dealt with it. It will go nowhere.
I’d be asking Turnbull is he going to apologize to those that suffered 10 rate rises in a row. ? Seems a good place to start.
Rudd should come down very strong and hard on these type of things – highlight hypocrasies, incompetencies and make it be seen Labor is in total control – as well as fixing up the Liberal party’s ‘mess’. Wonder Rudd didn’t mention that if Turnbull was really interested in doing something on a bi-partisan basis then the Republic is where it is needed. Rudd needs to play it tough and arrogant – he is the government.
I don’t think arrogance is a good look really. Remember Carpenter? The media would have a field day with it.
I don’t mean arrogance as a practice to adopt or a sneering arrogance – but showing yourself to be totally authoritive and superior on the issue at hand and to demonstrate the inferiority of the other person’s position. Rudd on the last 7.30 Report was getting to that stage. Fluent, athoritive, no hesitation, none of those wish washy phrases. People always thought Howard arrogant but still voted for him because was translated as being truly superior and in control – until he took it too far.
All he has to keep saying if Turbull wants to crap on about bi-partisanship is “pass the budget”. Simple.
Rudd is arrogant, which means “unable or unwilling to conceal awareness of one’s own superiority.”
Turnbull is conceited, which means “labouring under a false belief in one’s own superiority.”
I know there’s a lot going on, but I would have thought that by now the continuing high petrol prices would be drawing some flak given oil has been trading at less than US$100/barrel for a while now. By my reckoning unleaded should be no more than $1-35 at the peak of the weekly cycle, and much less early in the week! Graeme Samuel must be asleep at the wheel……. again!
Arrogance is usually accepted if it has genuine demonstrable foundations. Conceitedness is grating.
Can’t see how Turnbull will do much good when he had all the trouble in the world with Swan and in the end Swan was taunting him. And it doesn’t get any easier. I feel sorry for whoever comes up against Gillard.
In that same period the Aussie dollar has dropped 20c against the Greenback. That is why our petrol prices haven’t moved.
I believe Turnbull has many talents. Unfortunately, the talent for being Prime Minister is not among them.
Turbull is arrogant.
Costello is conceited.
Rudd is a genius (from time to time).
That would be the excuse, anyway.
Dario, I factored in the currency differential when I did the calculation, though our dollar has only dropped about 15 cents from when oil was $147. Its now less than $99, exactly a third cheaper.
Dario, our family still has heaps in US banks that we are waiting to move to Aussie banks until the exchange rate gets better [as vs what it was when we moved here in 2004]. For me, therefore, I will wear the fuel costs as I watch as the value of our American bank ledger keep on increasing even though there aren’t any real funds going into it
…..
I note there’s been some discussion over Malcolm Turnbull’s offer of bi-partisanship to help manage the “economic crisis”.
Why is he doing it? Perhaps it’s because despite all the fanfare and excitement, boring old Wayne Swan out polled Malcolm Turnbull as preferred Treasurer and Rudd will easily out poll him as preferred PM. It’s Turnbull and the Coalition who need to boost their credibility, not Rudd, Swan or the ALP.
Galaxy 19 May 2008
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23719923-5001021,00.html
“Some 36 per cent of voters believe Mr Swan would be the better economic manager over Liberal shadow treasurer Malcolm Turnbull, who rated 25 per cent.
In the weekend before the Budget, the figures were essentially reversed in a Newspoll survey – 35 to Mr Turnbull and 29 per cent to Mr Swan.”
Newspoll 20 May 2008
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23726970-601,00.html
“During the budget period, Mr Swan has overtaken Mr Turnbull on the question of who would make the better Treasurer, to lead by 40 per cent over Mr Turnbull’s 26 per cent.
Before the election, Peter Costello had an advantage over Mr Swan of more than two-to-one.
The Coalition has also lost its mantle as preferred economic manager to the Labor Government, with 52 per cent saying the Coalition could not deliver a better budget, to 29 per cent who said it could.”
Once again, we see the Canberra Press gallery with little or no idea about what is going on outside the bubble in which they live, by proclaiming this week that the ALP is very nervous about Turnbull’s ascension to the throne. Just because they wish something to be a particular way, doesn’t mean it is, or ever will be.
Most recent PMs have been arrogant men: Menzies, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating certainly were. Curiously, Howard is not especially arrogant. His dominant characteristic is obstinacy. Russ is no more arrogant than most of his predecessors. And as Tom Paine says, the voters don’t mind arrogance up to a point. They do react against arrogance when it becomes open contempt – as with Jeff Kennett. They dislike pomposity, which is Turnbull’s achilles heel.
Russ = Rudd
No 358
LOL, come off it.
Rudd is a bastion of supreme arrogance.
BB @ 358 If you seriously opine that Australia’s twenty sixth prime minister is a ‘genius (from time to time)’, you must concede that is said with a sense of foreboding.
Bushfire Bill @ 358,
“Costello is conceited.”
In Parliament QT on Thursday, Costello happened to be there (for a change). [This was my 3rd trip to QT since Parliament returned at the end of August and only the first time I’ve seen him. I gather, therefore, that he is a no-show more often than not. I can’t remember who it was (think it was Tanner though); but someone referenced Costello in their reply to a question and the whole room, gallery and members, turned to look at him. He waved his hands back and forth for about 5 to 10 seconds as if he was bowing in his seat from the adulation ……… it was the most annoying thing to actually see it. Wouldn’t have been broadcast over the airwaves as they only show the person speaking for the most part.
New thread.