Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Newspoll challenge: Turnbull bounce edition

Crikey Blogs’ resident clever bastard Possum has come up with the characteristically brilliant idea of inviting readers to guess the result of the next Newspoll and record their prediction in the form in the sidebar. The next poll will be a particularly fascinating case study as it involves the unknown quantity of the Malcolm Turnbull leadership factor. The results of the survey will thus provide a fascinating measure of how much collective wisdom there is in this particular crowd. My guess is: not very much.

Prove me wrong, readers!

368 Comments

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  1. 101
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    The assumption of Turnbull and the rest of his party is that Labor are illegitimately occupying the Treasury benches and that the people made a mistake last November.

    This not only insults the voters, but reveals the Liberals’ ignorance as to their true political position. I’m afraid they’re going to need to spend quite some time in the Naughty Corner to learn the lesson. And no dinner for them either until they say they’re sorry.

    The Leader of the opposition arrogantly corrects the Reserve Bank governor by quibbling with the wording of a statement the Governor made…. and this in the middle of the worst financial crisis to hit in most of our lifetimes. He is telling everyone how to behave and , now, what to say. while there may have been no alternative to Turnbull for his party, his withering away into irrelevance will force the Libs to concentrate on the real problem they have: themselves.

    The Libs have gone from the sublime to the ridiculous in their quest for a Messiah. From Costello, to Nelson and now Turnbull: the man who never could, followed by the man who never was, followed by the man who never will be.

    Local bookstore in Beecroft, Sydney (Lib Heartland): Costello’s book is $44.95. Have sold three in two days.

  2. 102
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    No 99

    Ms Gillard made no comments about the wealth of Turnbull. That was an error.

  3. 103
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    But Julia did make a great comment about his ego. ;)

  4. 104
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Turnbull brought up his own economic circumstances with a reverse reference to his progress from Struuggle St. to millionaire. He now has to wear the perfectly appropriate comments on this subject from his critics, as Rudd did. Perhaps he will triumph in the polls as a result, as Rudd also did?

    I doubt it.

    The voters know the genuine article when they see it.

  5. 105
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Oops hit post to quick

    At the NPC.

  6. 106
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    No 105

    I think her ego would easily compete with Turnbull’s.

  7. 107
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    OK, so we have established that Gillard said nothing about Turnbull being rich, that Tanner in fact explictly said that the point was NOT Turnbull’s wealth, and that Albanese made one or two snide remarks about Turnbull’s hypocrisy. So GP’s assertion that Rudd is guilty of criticising Turnbull for being rich, because he did not repudiate statements by Gillard, Tanner and Albanese criticising Turnbull for being rich, is shown to be false.

  8. 108
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    Ego is not something that can quantified. Money is, and so are statements in Hansard. Every time GP moves from the rhetorical to the factual, he is proved to be wrong.

  9. 109
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Gillard speaks extremely well,a pleasure to hear and read. And none can hold her steely gaze, just ask Howard.

  10. 110
    Cuppa
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Further to my post 97,

    The Herald-Sun (again), 25 February 2007, calls Mr Turnbull “Australia’s richest politician … worth at least $125million, according to the BRW Rich List.”

    http://www.news.com.au/sundayheraldsun/story/0,21985,21282616-661,00.html

  11. 111
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    No 108

    Adam, before you claim to be the barometer of fact, please be aware that you continue to falsely proclaim that Australia’s head of state is the Queen and that tax is not theft.

  12. 112
    rogan
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Scorpio @ 31

    Turnbull doesn’t face jail in civil proceedings. He does face an order to contribute funds to a judgment in favour of the liquidators.

    From a strategic point of view, the current political circumstances advantage the other defendants, who you might expect will squeeze Turnbull and Goldman Sachs to contribute a bit more to early settlement than they otherwise would have. Not much of broader political relevance there. Unless of course, the case doesn’t settle.

  13. 113
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    No 107

    The real question is why Rudd is endorsing such a pathetic class war. One of which he continues to the fan the flames with repeated references to porsche, ferrari and rolls-royce.

  14. 114
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    GP I haven’t seen that quote yet from Rudd showing that he criticised Turnbull for being rich.

  15. 115
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    tax is not theft.

    Hang on GP you haven’t proven that to be a fact at all. That is your opinion.

  16. 116
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    GP 111, I have already demolished the first assertion (I did pay attention in Law 101, although it was a long time ago), and the second is too silly to bother with.

  17. 117
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    No 115

    Tax is legalised theft.

    If there was no legal sanction approving taxation, the government’s action would be construed as theft by any definition. Simple. It is not an opinion; but fact.

  18. 118
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    No 116

    No you have not demolished the first assertion. Indeed, you argument that a sovereign cannot be above a head of state is nonsense. I refer you to the constitutional arrangements of Andorra.

  19. 119
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    If it is legal it can’t be theft. Theft is ILLEGAL.

  20. 120
    redwombat
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    Off topic but Hamlet Of the Hammock from Higgins book is already in the bargain bin………$20 bucks off…hahhahahaha :-)

  21. 121
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    It is not an opinion; but fact

    rubbish

  22. 122
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    I’m not going over such a stupid argument again. I enjoy a good debate, but this is just tr*lling.

  23. 123
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    The Government does not impose a tax – the Parliament does. :) So the Queen is a thief.

    So we should remove the Queen for thievery, eh GP? ;)

  24. 124
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    So we should remove the Queen for thievery, eh GP?

    Transportation to the colonies?

  25. 125
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    1 a: the act of stealing ; specifically : the felonious taking and removing of personal property with intent to deprive the rightful owner of it
    b: an unlawful taking (as by embezzlement or burglary) of property
    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theft
    Case closed. I’m done.

  26. 126
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    No 119

    Homocide by Self defence is legalised murder.

  27. 127
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Collecting tax is legal so can’t be theft.

  28. 128
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Anyone else care to put their cojones on the line a make a prediction on the next Newspoll?

  29. 129
    Doug Melville
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    SNIP: Using the word “troll” to shout down minority viewpoints is not permitted – The Management.

  30. 130
    Aussieguru01
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    Did anyone see Turnbull walk across lake Burligh-Griffith Or even see it part…is he the Liberal messiah or just a very naughty boy????

  31. 131
    MayoFeral
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill @ 101 -

    The assumption of Turnbull and the rest of his party is that Labor are illegitimately occupying the Treasury benches and that the people made a mistake last November.

    For the Howard Party its 1972 all over again. Fortunately, this time around withholding supply shouldn’t be an option, but you can bet on them trying everything to get an early election so the people can rectify their ‘mistake.’

  32. 132
    Mary Hannah Wade
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    Mayo:

    They can always rely on Fielding to help them in the Senate when it comes to the crunch

  33. 133
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    Thanks to God (that would be Jonathan Green) – the winner gets a free Crikey sub

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/09/18/what-size-a-turnbull-poll-bounce/

    Make sure you follow the conditions of entry correctly.

  34. 134
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    And if you keep the convo over here at PB and just the entries over there at Pollytics plus the sentence of why you predict what you do – everything will work much more smoothly.

  35. 135
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Such astounding ignorance, GP. “Homicide” (note spelling) is the taking of a human life, which may be lawful or unlawful according to the circumstances. “Murder” is the unlawful taking of a human life. Mutadis mutandis, “taxation” is (one form of) lawful appropriation of property. “Theft” is the unlawful appropriation of property. Are you incapable of understanding basic legal terminology?

  36. 136
    Cuppa
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    Sounds like it is nothing more than a right-wing mantra with no basis in either fact or logic.

  37. 137
    Aussieguru01
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    Just incase anyone miss it – here it is…

    http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ea0b05d406

  38. 138
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

    Please guys give GP a break, we need all the Conservative supporters we can get.

    Plus he is a little confused, he has in the past stated that he correctly predicted elections for the past 30 years, he then states that in 30 years he will be 50 something.

    So please be gentle and engage in his puerile debating points, cognitive dissonance is a hard thing to deal with. ;)

  39. 139
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    No 138

    I reject your accusation, I have never claimed to have correctly predict elections for the passed 30 years.

  40. 140
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    No 135

    Logically therefore, accepting your own definition, taxation is legalised theft. Just as capital punishment is legalised murder in some jurisdictions.

  41. 141
    Aussieguru01
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    Yeah we need more conservatives..like where is ESJ…I have picked his avitar for him … a portrait of the Queen to compliment Glenn “Menzie & GP Brittish flag LOLOLOL!

    Is this a new “axis of evil”???

  42. 142
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    Aussieguru01, press CTRL + F5: you’ll note I’m the GOP elephant now. :D

  43. 143
    gusface
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    very clever GP
    I dips me lid

  44. 144
    Aussieguru01
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    GP – I rest my case – http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ea0b05d406

  45. 145
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    No 144

    NOBAMA. I rest my case.

  46. 146
    Generic Person
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

    NOBAMA Part II

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvUsedDM9Y8

  47. 147
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    Will people feel a bit of sympathy for Brenda, he was very slowly creeping up in his PPM ratings? Will they say “poor guy, I kinda liked him”?

    Is it possible that over time Talcum will be seen as a poor choice of messiah?

    GP I will find your post tomorrow, are you really, truely ruley sure you want me to? :)

  48. 148
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

    Is it possible that over time Talcum will be seen as a poor choice of messiah?

    I give him till next Tuesday (Monday nite if you watch Lateline)

    I was right about Cozzie’s book. I am right about Turnbull: remaindered before the ink is dry.

  49. 149
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

    Stiglitz: The Fall of Wall Street Is to Market Fundamentalism What the Fall of the Berlin Wall Was to Communism.
    Joseph Stiglitz was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001. I spoke with him Tuesday about the Wall Street meltdown
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/stiglitz-the-fall-of-wall_b_126911.html

  50. 150
    Aussieguru01
    Posted Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

    Hey GP… YES WE CAN!…WIN

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