A new thread for discussion of matters American, as the polls return to level pegging following the Republicans’ convention bounce.
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574 Comments
Yep, level pegging, but the trend of late is back to Obama… Gallup daily has him up 47 to 45 http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx – first time since Palin arrived (which already feels like about a year ago…)
Dario, i think it was him/her from the previous thread where he/she posted that it was very difficult for a black person to be elected. That has been my point consistently about Obama. I still dont think they will elect a black man to be POTUS. I said it before, happy to be proved wrong.
Just to kick things off, I’ll post the same Indiana poll that I put on the Aussie thread:
Obama +3 in Indiana
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076
Obama + 8 in New Mexico
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=edc4d070-fb0f-43a8-b19c-6b32c3ad36f7
I agree with Finn – i just don’t think the South and Mid-West in particular will be hospitable to a Knee Grow when push comes to shove – the primaries is very different to the actual election
Finns,
From EV, this election is going to be decided in the Mid West. Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and the Virginias. Nothing new there. But conservative, blue collar which ain’t Obama’s strnghts.
Well a lot of us preferred Clinton to Obama but that is beside the point now. Its not only momentum that is favouring Obama – current events are embarrassing his opponent to an increasign extent. It will get worse before November’s poll too. A lot of US companies have to report results in October, and the news will be bad leading up to the poll. McCain is Elmer Fudd when it comes to economics, and Obama and Bidne will (and should) attack him on it continually. the message is simple: McCain voted for all of Bush’s failed budgets and policies and his policies are more of the same – electing him will be steady as she sinks. The democrats should win from here, but they are going to inherit a country in terrible shape in every way.
yes, you may be right – but how many of those southern/mid west states ever go to the Democrats?
If he can get Ohio and Pennsylvania that should do it… (he says boldly and without support!)
GG, yes, we told them (me) , we told them (you) and we told them (and Amigo Ronnie)
The current RCP map (without “toss up states”)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
To win, Obama needs to win the Kerry states (including PA, MI and NH) – which currently looks fairly likely – and then win either:
Ohio; or
Colorado and Virginia; or
Iowa and Virginia; or
Nevada and Virginia; or
Colorado and Iowa and New Mexico
The last scenario looks the most likely atm, although recent polls show Obama retaking the lead in Virginia…
Socrates,
With great respect, McCain is saying “hold my hand, I’ll guide you throught the storm”.
Obama message is, “I’ll change everything”
If you you have a $300k mortgage and your job is under threat, who would you support.
You just have to wonder where the US Government is going to get all those trillion of dollars from, to bail out all those failed capitalist roaders, the masters of OPM.
* Between the Chinese and Japanese, they already hold 70% of its Treasury bonds
* It has deficit that is bigger than Ben-Hur
* It is fighting two wars that are costing trillions
* The devastation from Katrina, Gustav and Ike
* The crumbling and outdated infra-structures and industrial production capabilities
* A POTUS election that is like soap opera with change you cannot believe from both sides
All we need is a big earthquake that wipes out half of Kalifornia, then the mighty USA is gurgling down the utube drain.
GG; and the Obama side are pointing out McCain is really saying “I guided you into the storm, so you can trust me to guide you through it”.
Swing Lowe
Iowa is in the bag, as is New Mexico. Frankly, if we lose either of them we’ve been pulverised and have no hope. I think Colorado is the litmus test. Anything else will just be icing on the cake.
Grog,
They would say that, wouldn’t they. BTW “I’m a war hero”, trust me!
Whose we whiteman (Diogenes)?
Have to say the hacking into Palin’s emails shows the gutter level of US politics in general. I’m not saying the Obama camp had anything to do with it (am sure they didn’t), but it just makes me like the Aussie version of democracy better.
Biden to Obama: “Barack, we are in trouble”.
Obama to Biden: “What do you mean WE, white man”.
GG, The I’m a War hero line is good, but it goes better when the guy looks like a hero, not like someone who wouldn’t be able to cope marching in a Veterens Day Parade.
He is really showing his age. And I know most of his ailments are due to his POW time; but perception wise he looks like getting through 4 years will be a struggle… if only the GOP had gone with him 8 years ago.
Iowa does look like a lock and NM increasingly so.
One of the more interesting polls to come out recently was the CNN poll in North Carolina, which put McCain up by only 1.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/17/battleground.poll/index.html
I though NC was out after the Palin bounce, only to see that it’s as close as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, based on the most recent polls…
GG and Finns
We are all Americans now.
Now if the Dems can just get those 3 votes in Alaska…
Grog,
So says you. This is a US election. 300 million of teaming humanity. If you think how McCain looks by your interprtation is going to make a fig of difference, then you are a dreamer.
But, that’s all right.
Latest Daily Kos tracking poll:
OBAMA 49
MCCAIN 43
I’d given up on Obama winning North Carolina and Florida, I’ve been more confident about his chances in New Mexico and even Nevada(because of the Hispanic vote)
It looks like Israel will have a female PM. BTW: anybody knows what is happening with Ariel Sharon? he’s been in coma for a long time now.
Sharon hasn’t died yet, as far as I know!
Ok Ok GG, it is just my opinion.
But if you think looks and perception of health don’t make a difference in politics then we are both dreaming.
Just to prove I’m not the only one who thinks the US economy is playing into Obama’s hands, here is an excerpt from a story in the SMH:
“The latest CBS News-New York Times national survey showed Obama leading McCain by a margin of 48 per cent to 43 per cent – a swing of seven percentage points in just a week.”
GG 11 one of my high school teachers said that in a debate the easiest way to win was to convince someone that there were only two choices, and to make the other choice seem unacceptable. The trick is to deceive people about the nature of the choice. Hence your choice is part of the McCain spin. Its pretty desperate though. A more accurate analogy would be this:
You are trapped in a storm and asked who do you trust: the old fool who said it would be blue skies, or the guy who warned you to take an umbrella? Vote democrat and buy an umbrella.
One of McCain’s more stupid statements:”The economic fundamentals are sound!”
If I was Obama, I’d hammer him on this, again and again!
I enjoy this discussion, but I ask the particpants, whether they have a job, a mortgage, are married and have kids.
Because they are the type of people who will decide the election.
Suggested campaign slogans for McCain:
“Steady as she sinks”
“Don’t worry, if you lose your house you can stay in one of mine”
“I’m not worried about the economy – I already qualify for the pension”
“The republicans have gotten you into this mess and if you keep voting for us we’ll get our bankers out of it”
“Prosperity is overrated”
“Blessed are the poor” (good for the religeous vote!)
“The truth may set you free, but it won’t save us”
“Money is the root of all evil, so we think you are better off without it”
Well GG I doubt I’ll be free of my financial commitments in less than a decade, but your comment is more spin. Opinions shouldn’t be disqualified because of people’s age, wealth or stage in life. Play the ball, not the man.
Socrates, @ 31,
Shocker post. You are better than that!
29 evan14, they are:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/16/strong_economic_fundamentals_n.html
30 GG: yes, yes, yes and yes. So I guess my opinion now matters??
#32,
The original Socrates used to say “You cannot play the balls without playing the man”. he was a wiseman.
Grog,
No, no, no, no, no,………..Yes
(Vicar of Dibley).
Hpefully, you understand.
Oh Dear, Dubya is going to make a speech on the ruins of the master of the Universe, in the next hour.
Who writes Bush’s speeches these days, now that Rove has retired?
Laura?
I’d like Paul McCartney.
Everything that you wanted to know about the handy works of the Masters of The Universe but were afraid to ask:
http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1842123,00.html
Hannity gave Palin a free ride. Charles Gibson did a better job, despite his erroneous definition of the Bush doctrine.
What a shock
Socrates
how can you make those Statements blaming it all on McCain/Republicans when you know from my post today
1/ 1999 th ‘deregulation’ Bill was passed in senate 90 to 8 with biden saying yes and MCain (abstain) & in HoR approx 357 to 42
2/Democrats hav controlled Senate since 2006 and hav not put up re-regulation Bills 3/ Obama’s own ecomnomist is on record in 2007 praiing sub prime loans and
4/ Fannie mack & Fannie Mae is put before houses yearly and no critisim made of there crazy lending practises
5/ McCain suggested in 2005 more regulation off them & Obama has sat in senate all this time
If anything Democrats hav alot to answer for as do republicans
Ron,
I love it when the cavalry arrive. Thank you.
Hello GG
DESPITE th spin by Obama and his sup[porters , Mccain co sponspored a regulation bill in 2006 that th DEMOCRATS scuttled….and Obama was there
This is what McCain said in suppoort of his Bill , quote
“Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae’s regulator reported that the company’s quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were “illusions deliberately and systematically created” by the company’s senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae’s former chief executive officer, OFHEO’s report shows that over half of Mr. Raines’ compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.
The OFHEO report also states that Fannie Mae used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator’s examination of the company’s accounting problems. This report comes some weeks after Freddie Mac paid a record $3.8 million fine in a settlement with the Federal Election Commission and restated lobbying disclosure reports from 2004 to 2005. These are entities that have demonstrated over and over again that they are deeply in need of reform.
For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac–known as Government-sponsored entities or GSEs–and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO’s report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO’s report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay.
I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.”
McCain took action in 2005 that might have helped us avoid the severity of this current financial crisis Democrats AND OBAMA also took action in 2005…and stopped McCain’s reforms
But US liberal press ‘spin’ hav reversed th truth & reality
McCain caught out complaining about Palin. Audio.
http://www.236.com/blog/w/michael_weingartner_and_lee_camp/mccains_palin_anxiety_caught_o_9008.php
No 47
LOL, sounds like a maverick.
Generic Person
want to talk about an irrelevant audio or a $5.1 trillion collapse of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mack that Mccain predicted & tried to prevent in early 2006 per my #46 , which Obama & his mates prevented
IF truth gets out to people past th liberal intellegentsia press , then poney phoney Obama is finished
No 49
Obama is easily the most liberal, leftist presidential candidate in history. When asked about taxation, he gives meaningless platitudes about why the rich should pay more instead of pledging to abolish income taxes altogether (which make up only 40% of federal tax revenue) in order to create more jobs and encourage people to work more.
McCain talks about reducing government, whereas (n)Obama pledges to increase its size.
Thankfully Americans are seeing the light and switching their vote to McCain/Palin.
Grog @ 7,
Obama should get the following as traditional Democratic states in the Midwest – Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, Deleware and the whole NE block of states. Indiana and Ohio are more iffy, traditionally. They are more like the deep south, demographically. You might have heard in other places that Pennsylvania ought to vote as does Ohio. Not the case. Do not be at all surprised to see McCain get both Ohio and Indiana. Obama won’t get Missouri, it is traditionally Republican. Don’t think even if Obama could get 100% black voter turnout at the polls that he would still lose Missouri. It is possible for Obama to win and NOT carry those 3 states (MO, OH, IN) so we need to see him retain the traditionally Democratic base in the midwest and he will be fine.
Intratrade says 298 ev Obama and 240 ev McCain
….. numbers I can live with
http://www.intrade.com/
“By then I had already concluded that that there was a disturbingly erratic side of McCain’s nature. There’s a certain lack of seriousness in him. And he does not appear to be a reflective man, or very interested in domestic issues. One cannot imagine him ruminating late into the night about, say, how to educate and train Americans for the new global and technological challenges. ”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13541.html
Palin was forced on McCain, he wanted Lieberman as his running mate!
The critical voting bloc this time will be Hispanics: if more than 60% vote for Obama, he’ll capture New Mexico and Nevada.
Ronster
Read it and weep. And it’s from electoral-vote, which is one of your approved sources. Do Americans want McCain with Gramm as his Treasurer? No how! No way! No Gramm-McCain!
Diogenes @ 55,
I hope Obama can make a lot of political hay with this one …… thanks for the post. Even though I lived in the US at that time (1999), I had no idea. Most Americans tend to go out of their way to ignore Washington et. al (unless its election time or there is an issue going on of particular local importance). Cheers
Obama is onto and all over McCain with this one. McCain’s initial response this week to the financial crisis was to say he would establish a commission. Here was Obama’s response while campaigning in New Mexico
….
*******
Today in Espanola, New Mexico, Barack Obama nailed it. In discussing the economy, he attacked McCain’s idea of creating a commission to deal with our economic crisis.
He said something like, “We don’t need no stinkin’ commission!”
What we need is honest talk and real solutions. Senator McCain’s first answer to this economic crisis was – get ready for it – a commission. That’s Washington-speak for “we’ll get back to you later.” Folks, we don’t need a commission to spend a few years and a lot of taxpayer money to tell us what’s going on in our economy. We don’t need a commission to tell us gas prices are high or that you can’t pay your bills. We don’t need a commission to tell us you’re losing your jobs. We don’t need a commission to study this crisis, we need a President who will solve it – and that’s the kind of President I intend to be. “
I’m happy Obama is finally attacking McCain, the Democrats are often too nice, you’ve got to fight fire with fire.
Lest those who wonder why I am so suspicious of McCain on economic matters think it is purely a republican- democrat thing, McCain’s (dubious) history on financial matters stretches right back to the Savings and Loan scandals of the late 1980s. Read about his part in the “Keating Five”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five
So much for the maverick reformer. He has had links with these people since day one. I don’t pretend that Obama will solve everything, but there is no chance McCain will. The prime objective for some of his backers to get him elected is to keep themselves out of jail.
“We need a President who will solve it.” Well, yes, Barack, but how? I doubt he has the smallest beginnings of a clue. Is Obama in favour of re-regulating Wall St by reinstating Glass-Steagall or something like it? I don’t think he has said so. That might close the stable door, but the horse has already bolted. What in fact is Obama’s economic policy, beyond hope, faith and charity?
I’m afraid that McCain (and Palin) have the same incurious, shallow characteristics of Geo W Bush. Can the world take another dose?
Adam, it would be easy enough to look it up on your own, but I will help you by posting the link.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/economyplan
Each of the 12 areas he covers he mentions in a brief paragraph with another link for further details in each case so that you don’t get too much information overload on the first page.
Thanks, Juliem. I see some populist giveaways, I see populist and regressive protectionism, I see some good stuff about employee rights, I see some tinkering with bankruptcy laws. I see some easy phrases about “cracking down” on fraud in the mortgage industry. But fraud isn’t the problem, the problem is irresponsible deregulation. I don’t see a commitment to re-regulate Wall St. He can’t slam McCain for having supported deregulation (which he did), unless he commits to re-regulation.
Ron says he’s a rightie, GP says he’s a leftie… you Obama bashers have got to get your stories straight
Adam
The horse has bolted analogy does not justify inaction. There are still horses left in the stable. The rest of the world’s financial system remaining after the collapse of a half dozen institutions is still worth saving. Reregulation seems prudent at this point. As a minimum, the private players who have been found to be incapable of doing their role (eg rating agencies) must be regulated or replaced by government bodies. We will still have a free market, but there needs to be a policeman and accurate reporting of performance for it to work reliably. If that requires regulation then so be it.
Obama gave a speech back in march 2008 where he identified the need for new regulation. See
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-03-27-economy-speech_N.htm
The full text of Obama’s March speech is here
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBNsq
Socrates, I agree. If Obama has committed to reregulation, then I approve. I think I may be about to flip on this election. Neither candidate has any economic credentials, but I think traditional Democrat policies will serve better to clean up this Republican mess, just as they did under FDR. I still think Obama is dangerously underqualified to be president, but we may have to live with that.
By the way, I read recently that when Truman became president, not only had he never met any foreign heads of government, he had never met the Secretary of State!
Adam
Wouldn’t that also be true of Bush II?
Adam @ 63, I am all over various US news sites and if I see something about re-regulation of Wall Street, I will post the same
I could imagine why Truman never met the SoS. The Secretary would have been a wee bit busy in the lead up to those heady days.
Bush II was never vice-president, so the situation was not analogous
Parts of the Democrats have been banging on for a while about the need for tighter capital requirements and lifting prudential standards – it’s a bit arcane, but I’ll try and find a link. An Obama presidency remember will be a Democrat presidency first and foremost (and same with McCain/Republican) as it *always* is. In terms of party based economic horsepower to deploy at making the US financial system more robust – the Democrats win hands down on that.
One of the reasons why Clinton ran a pretty succesful economic policy was because of the Democrat economic intelligence base that was either attached to the party or generally gathers around it in terms of the economics profession.
To give an idea, check out the list here:
http://econ4obama.blogspot.com/
That’s a list of serious names and serious expertise (so saying there’s the odd goose and ideologue hanging around).
As strange as it may seem (to me at least, anyway), it’s actually the Republicans that have a more ideologically driven advisory group than the Dems on economic policy and that’s really been the case since Clinton.
On why Obama hasnt said exactly what he’d do – he might go down that road a little today or tomorrow going by this speech yesterday:
http://thepage.time.com/prepared-remarks-for-obamas-event-in-espanola-new-mexico/
Yet, there’s is a really good reason he doesn’t come out and start banging on about prudential requirements and releasing a 42 step plan for a new, robust regulatory system for the US financial sector – even if he had one, he’d sound like a liberal elitist egg-head the moment he started talking about it.
And of course it’s fair to say that in 1933 FDR didn’t have a clue what to do either. He just made it up as went along.
No 73
Possum, he not only sounds like one, but he already is one.
Why did not Obama support McCain in 2006 in senate when McCain forcast this financial mess and predicted it would be from poor regulation ?
McCain in Senate 2006 :
“(I give) my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the OVERALL financial system, and the economy as a WHOLE.”
We ignore th 1999 deregulation Gramm-Leach-Bliley-Act where 90% of Democrats voted for it including Biden , whilst McCain abstained ?
Seems a lot of selective ignoring of history , and now reliance on Obama retrospectively now learning what McCain forcast in advance , virtual reality land
Relating to the “One vote, Actually quite different value” system in the WA legislative council on the other thread, the Electoral College system in the US is a complete joke!
In the Electoral college, Wyoming has three electors and a population of 522,830, so each Elector represents 174,277 individuals.
Texas on the other hand has 34 electors and a population of 23,904,380 so each Elector represents 703,070 individuals.
So basically, a vote in Wyoming is four times more valuable than a vote in Texas.
However, the low population states with such enormous over-representation seem to be split fairly evenly between the Democrats and Republicans (vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, DC, Alaska and the Dakotas) so it doesn’t seem to be an obvious gerrymander. But still, I’d be pretty unimpressed if I were a Texan.
And just what is wrong with being a liberal elitist egg-head?
Grant
I didn’t realise that. How do they rationalise something so undemocratic?
Ron, electoral-vote.com says McCain voted for Gramm-Leach-Bliley. Can we get a source which will clarify this?
The US has an 18th century electoral system. They justify it on the grounds of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
Well, according to this report, Biden voted against it and McCain voted for it…
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/16/203823/008/1013/601053
As with all predictions I could be wrong but I believe McCain is toast. He’s played his ace and the effect of that has worn off. It seems the polls are shifting back in favour of Obama. The trend has been there for the last 3 or 4 days and is not abating even with the latest economic upheavels. If anything the polls are getting stronger for Obama. The republican brand will wear this like a scar up to the election.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24369923-954,00.html
Diogenes
The delegate misallocation is a historical accident but to be fair it does provoke a lot of debate in the US, notably after the 2000 election where Gore clearly won the popular vote. However changing it is hard as obviously teh favoured states will oppose reform. The rule is that edlegates are alloacted based ona combination of senators plus congressmen for each state. Because each state gets the same two senators, small states are favoured. At first it was a reasonable system, but over time as the difference in size between states has grown, so have the anomalies. It is explained well here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)
We are not much better. The guarantee for Tasmania to have a minimum of 5 reps seats results in anomalies in our electorates too, but not as bad as in the US. But if we had 50 states varying as much in size, we wouldn’t be much better.
That seems pretty clear. McCain is pinged.
Ron, the reason why Obama didnt support that particular piece of legislative rubbish is probably the same reasons that next to no one supported it – it was killed in the Senate by, well…. just about everyone – never seeing action on the floor.
When even the American Enterprise Institute thinks it’s rubbish on the basis of the dangers of the lax regulatory regime it would have permitted the toxic twins Fannie and Freddie to operate under – it’s hardly something to be quoting as an example of good foresight.
The current mess would have been worse if that Bill was passed since it was basically all about substituting government oversite for a private company to do the job which was half owned by Fannie and Freddie – basically enabling them to set their own prudential requirements! Fark me dead! It also removed Federal Home Loan Banks from a number of securities reporting requirements.
What a charming mess it all would have become.
Oooh – link for the AEI
http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.22705/pub_detail.asp
The debacle in 2000 didn’t have anything to do with the over-representation of small states in the EC. Bush carried AK, ID, WY, MT, ND, SD, NH. Gore carried HI, DE, VT, ME, RI, so they just about cancelled out. The problem in 2000 was the EXISTENCE of the EC, which negated Gore’s popular vote lead by wasting his huge leads in CA and NY. Carrying CA by a million votes gets you no more ECV than carrying it by one vote.
I know you have all seen these but it does make my day posting them.
Obama up by 1.9% nationally on RCP
Obama by 10% and 1% in Colorado (my litmus test state)
Up by 8% and 7% in New Mexico
Up by 1% and down by 1% in Ohio
Nothing from Nevada but the West is looking promising.
Adam
True on 2000; the EC system is an anachronism.
We are also agreed on the need for reregulation. I don’t think Obama will be brilliant at it, but I can’t see McCain doing it at all so Obama will have to do. Having promised banking reform, if elected Obama will have to do it; to not do so in the midst of a recession would be politically fatal for him. My original preference was Hillary anyway, but its too late for that now.
Poss is right, nobody in US politics has been serious about financial reform until recently. Joseph Stiglitz in his book “The Roaring Nineties” gave some honest comments in hindsight on why Clinton failed to act when he was economics advisor. But it all got a lot worse after the CDO/CDS market really took off in 2002. Failure to act since then has been indefensible.
“With a record that defines two decades plus in voting to deregulate and remove oversight control from the financial sector. John McCain is floundering in the wake of the greatest financial meltdown to occur since the Great depression of 1929.
The GOP ticket has been forced into a defensive posture and polls which had Arizona’s senior Senator ahead by a couple points, have reversed leaving Senator Obama with a slight lead in the race to win the white house.
Polls also indicate a vast majority of registered voters feel republican policy is to blame for the crises on Wall Street. A fact the Obama campaign is wasting no time in communicating to undecided voters. They point out the John McCain claiming to be the agent of change has spent his career as one of the most vocal advocates of the very deregulation which allowed the crises to blossom just weeks from Election Day.”
http://www.bloggernews.net/117830
Diogenes
I can’t recall the link but someone in teh US actually did a map of home foreclosure rates and unemployment rates by state due to the sub-prime crisis a few months ago, to identify political impacts. The correlation with primary voting trends was clear at the time. It would be interesting to see it again now, as it might show where the greatest gains for Obama will be.
Diogenes and Socrates,
I didn’t see the original source article that you are referring to but I did read about 3 weeks back in the online paper for Detroit (I’m from Michigan so regularly keep on top of their news) that 60% of the forclosures nationwide were for addresses in the state of Michigan. Michigan traditionally votes Democratic although it isn’t as wide a margin as can be expected in New York or California, usually somewhere in the 1 to 5% range I think.
Juliem
I still can’t find my previous link but that sounds a bit high for Michigan, or must relate to a particular period of time after one of the big auto plant closures. Overall the worst states are Nevada (Las Vegas a disaster), California and Florida. See
http://www.instantforeclosuredata.com/Foreclosures/Foreclosure-Listings/
Here is another US foreclosure map. Areas in red are pretty grim; mostly in the fast growing states:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/91121-map-of-u-s-foreclosure-activity
It sounds a bit ghoulish but there seem to be US companies now tracking areas with high foreclosure rates so that people will know where to go to get bargains at repo auctions.
Socrates, I’ve clicked on a few of those links (investigated parts of NY, NV and MI). Will admit I don’t know the standards by which the Free Press got that data NOR do I know the standards by which the site you’ve visted defines “forclosure rates” in order to rank the states the way that they did. Do they rank based up on raw numbers of how many homes? Is it based upon the dollar value of the homes forclosed? (less more expensive homes would rate higher than fewer lesser dollar value homes). One thing I can tell you though is that Wayne county in Michigan (county which encompasses Detroit) has between 7200 to 7300 homes on their list. Of the 10 counties I checked in 3 states, this was far and away the largest number I could find (in outright numbers of homes within a specific county).
Juliem
I don’t know. Most of the stuff I looked up was simple proportion of mortgages being foreclosed. I don’t recall seeing statistics based on value. I haven’t got time to look at this further now, but I’m sure if you dug you might get foreclosure rate by state or county.
For a run-down on economics McCain style and those economists who are advising/endorsing him, please see McCain’s sky hasn’t fallen just yet They are the Bush W, Bush H.W., Reagan and even Nixon crowd revisited. So much for his change.
FYI,
ABC1 will be broadcasting the US Presidential debates.
http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/media/s2369375.htm
ADAM
#51
Posted Friday, September 19, 2008 at 11:46 am
“Ron, electoral-vote.com says McCain voted for Gramm-Leach-Bliley. Can we get a source which will clarify this?”
I posted th below yesterday , and THEREFORE naturally my #51 post today referred to FINAL BILL However since my yesrterday post of full info th whole thread has disappeared Seems
ALL Obama internet sites mischeviously ignore voting on th Final Bill causing there rusted on supporters to repeat incomplete info
Th 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Bill (effectively a “deregulation” Bill amongst other things) was pased on 6th May 1999 the bills by a 54-44 vote (1 abstention) along Party lines support in Senate but by a slightly different bill version was passed 343-86 vote in HoR
FINAL BILL resulted from resolving th version differences between th 2 Houses following negotiations & conferences and were finally resolved and making it a joint Houses Bill which on 4th november 1999 was passed in the Senate 90-8 (1 abstention being JOHN McCAIN) and in the House of Reps 362-57 (15 abstentions)
Passed 6th May 1999
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=s1999-105
Passed 4th November 1999…BIDEN voting “YES” and McCAIN abstaining
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=s1999-354
.
ps/ above made it veto proof and so Billy Clinton could not veto it , which he signed as Law 12th november 1999
So VP BIDEN is anti regulation and McCain abstained Broader picture is Party-wise both politcal Partys overwhelming votes were for deregulation , a bit hard for some to accept
I can’t believe McCain’s vote went up (!!!!!!!) after he chose the devil for VP…
98, thanks a million for the timing of that Frank
The whole Palin thing is a naked ploy by McCain to upset the liberals in the Democratic Party by making a liberal gesture with a non-liberal woman…
gallup has Obama now up 48-44. Guess it’s just a post Palin bounce bounce.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110473/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx
Frank Calabrese @ 98
Excellent – I will be watching them except the Palin debate. The cringe factor will be too high for me to cope with having seen her interview.
She’s a fast learn, TP. By the time of the debate she will know the GDP of Senegal and the middle name of the President of Turkmenistan. And she will make Biden look like a boring Beltway hack, which he is.
Adam, are you willing (a la William) to put your hat on the line should Biden win that debate?
…..
No. I’ve already said that I think the Wall St crash may be enough to sink McCain.
79
AIC
He sure did.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=s1999-105
92
Juliem
Supposedly the repo rates are slowing.
http://www.builderonline.com/mortgages-and-banking/foreclosure-growth-slowing.aspx
A bit of Palin seems to have rubbed off on McCain, ie her penchant for sacking people who make her look bad. And just like Palin, McCain would do it illegally. That’s why “Yup Yup” won’t front at any investigation into her role in Troopergate, despite saying she would co-operate.
Yet again demonstrating his lack of understanding, it has been pointed out that the POTUS can’t fire the SEC chairman.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
The basic fact about US elections is that if they are about national security the Repubs usually win, but if they are about the economy the Dems usually win. McCain has to hope that the crisis blows over in the next few weeks so he can get the narrative back onto security issues. I doubt that will happen.
Adam
Palin is going to look like a school kid who crammed for an exam, trying desperately to avoid looking like a “fail”. Her Gibson interview was pathetic. She floundered like guppy in a fishing net. When they scrape even 1 cm below the surface, pure ignorance will shine through.
But I don’t think she (or Biden) matters any more. It’s back to Obama (Dem) vs McCain (Rep) as it should be.
Adam
Do you think swing states in the mid-west and south will go for a Knee Grow ?
I agree with that – if she still mattered Obama wouldn’t be back in front. I’ll admit that maybe she has kept the race close – during the DNC it was 50-42, imagine if he had chosen a boring nobody? We’d all be talking about who will be Obama’s Sec of State…
I don’t think race will be an issue for many voters except in places the Dems can’t win anyway. If Obama loses it won’t be because he is black, it will be because the Repubs succeed in persuading the key demographics that he is (a) an elitist liberal (not hard since he is an elitist liberal) and (b) too risky in terms of national security (I don’t think they’ve made that case yet).
The Piggeries of Wall St.
Securitisation – Pig with lipstick. still a pig.
Hedge fund – Pig can fly
Leverage – Pig on steroid. 30 times its normal weight. prone to self implosion. it did.
Derivatives – GM Pig. Is it a pig? a hippo? a bear? nobody knows. Nobody understands.
Short selling – Pig that was sold before fattening and market day.
Private equity – Specialising in liposuction of the fat Pig until it is anorexic
Margin lending – dreaming the pig
Investment bank – without the piggy banks
Debts – Sarah Palin without the pig
Don’t know if you’re trying to be smart, but it’s African American please.
Al
not all blacks are from Africa so don’t you be “smart” either
Obama has described himself as black. It’s still more widely used than African-American. I guess strictly speaking Obama is a Kenyan-American.
Negro is widely considered to be a racist slur, particularly among African American communities.
I didn’t call him a Negro.
But see here: http://www.ncnw.org/
Adam 111
I agree with your comment on the basis of the election. It will be bad for McCain. This won’t blow over quickly. The markets are settling down now but the bank mergers and buyouts alone will see tens of thousands of direct job losses from what were very bloated industries, plus flow on effects. The US reporting season in October will be a sea of red ink. If the Fed gets things back under control (and regulations are passed to stop this recurring!) the US economy might start recovering by this time next year. I think it will take them longer to get back to high growth though, because they are heavily in debt and some countries will now be more reluctant to loan them capital. I think Obama will win now; Hillary would have romped in.
Adam is right – n i g g e r is the racist slur not Negro
oh geez guys, can we just talk politics.
I concurr, but we’ll have to just consign ourselves with an “if only”.
McCain would never have been in the race if Clinton had been the Dem candidate.
If Obama wins it will be because of the great piece of good luck that this crash represents for him. Otherwise McCain would still have been ahead and the race would’ve been his to lose.
Wow there’s some serious Hillary pining with you guys…
The fact that Hilary would have beat Obama in the primaries if the Dems used a winner of the state takes all the votes like occurrs in the election, suggests to me she would have done as well – and probably better than BO come November.
Adam
I don’t think this crash is luck. It was almost inevitable. I have been saying the US was in/was going into recession since this time last year, as have many economists. The republicans should have seen this coming. I think Romney could have handled this situation better for them. Then again, they needed McCain to distance themselves from the Bush style of politics.
126 Dario… yes; there’s a definite need for a Hilary Anonymous society somewhere.
It’s luck that it happened *now* (unless you think the gnomes of Wall St did it on purpose to get Obama elected, which seems unlikely).
Romney is an even worse phony than Obama. Plus he belongs to a polygamist pagan cult so none of the fundies would vote for him.
Did any Repub candidates have any economic credentials?
I, for one, am very confident that Governor Palin will have all the answers to the looming recession and will be able to explain why deregulation is still the way to go. Once someone tells her she that Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae weren’t actually owned by the Government and were private enterprises, it’s all going to fall into place and she’s going to be dynamite.
Dario
Adam’s going to kill me for saying this but here goes. Ron Paul.
Yes I put my hand up for membership of the Hilary fan society too. Her campaign strategy had mistakes but I still thought she was judged on her husbands past rather than her present skills. IMO she has the brains and experience to do the job, regardless of who her husband is. American really is a sexist place and I thought she got some very rough press coverage.
IMO Hilary needed to bite the bullet and go for it in 2004. She planned it too nicely to run in 2008. She was the Dem’s best candidate in 04, so why wait?
Ancient history I know; but it was just too calculated.
BO didn’t wait for 2012.
Yeah from the little I’ve heard of him I’m a Ron Paul fan, but exactly what credentials did he have?
Grog
Agreed; Bush being reelected in 2004 was a tragedy for the world.
Regardless of the good/bad fortune of the timing, this collapse in the US economy will have other consequences that bother me. Assuming Obama wins now, he will be in a very difficult situation. Economically he will have very little room to move (much worse than the incoming government here). The world badly needs a deal on climate change, whch will involve some pain for the US auto, power and coal industries. Some of those are located in precisely the states that are stagnant now. It will be very hard to pesuade them to accept a change that might cost jobs, especially if the government now doesn’t have the money to spend to fund new jobs. Hopefully if Obama wins decisively he will have the political capital to initiate change anyway. But it would have been much easier if the US still had the cash to change painlessly.
Adam
Presume you saw my Senate voting links info in #99 showing Biden’s “yes” vote to th ‘deregulation” Bill
McCain in Senate 2006 quote: “The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s states that Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator’s examination of the company’s accounting problems”
The Center for Responsive Politics, a non partisan watchdog organization , listed all Congress politcians who have received money from both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac …th big two lenders of these SUB PRIME mortgage loans
There list covers 19 years cumulated , the top three beneficiaries have been:
1 = Chris Dodd……. $165,400
2 = Barack Obama.. $126,349
3 = John Kerry……. $111,000
McCain got 21,550
Obama managed 2nd place on th list in just a few years against ALL other 550 odd Washington Congress politcians with many there for whole 19 years
Given th 2 Fannies combined 5.1 trillion debt th US government effectively hav taken over with there demise & there crazy sub prime lending practises that partly caused this crisis , there 2nd place for there donations to Obama suggest he was regarded by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack ‘as friendly’ and not pro there ‘regulation’ (unlike McCain who suggested there regulation in May 2006 proposed Bill)
To suggest to totally ignore these ‘donations’ and there relativity to other pollies would be strange In ‘oz’ I suggest Obama would (rightly) be in firing line over th Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack lack of there ‘regulation’in 2006 and th coincidental donations linkage …but then we not fully deal in bullsh.it in ‘oz’
Socrates (122)
What makes you think the markets have settled down now? All the evidence suggests they will be very volatile for several months yet – maybe longer. .
No 133
Ron Paul is an inspiration. He’s the only congressman with a consistent voting record for smaller government and for upholding the constitution. I particularly relish his policies pledging to abolish half the government bureaucracy, income taxes and ending unending wars.
Congressional leaders said after meeting Thursday evening with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that as much as $1 trillion could be needed to avoid an imminent meltdown of the U.S. financial system.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13602.html
Socrates @ 134, I would say that those who didn’t vote for Hillary in the primaries had a few things in mind.
They honestly thought Obama was the better candidate or they didn’t want Bill #2 (rightly or wrongly, that was how many Democrats who didn’t vote for her perceived her). I voted for Obama as I thought he was the better candidate however I know people who fit into the latter category (didn’t necessarily think Obama was better but didn’t want Bill anywhere near power again).
I suggest that Bill was her albatross as opposed to her sex. Bill was a very polarizing force and still is in the Democratic Party. You either love him or you hate him. For this very reason, he was sparingly used by Kerry in the 2004 campaign.
TP et al
When the Federal Reserve asys it’s going ti inject $1trillion into the economy, does that mean it’s going to dish out lots of loans? If it’s going to “invest” the money, do they have that kind of money lying around the Fed or do they “devalue the currency” to come up with it (in effect print a $1 trillion dollar note).
Gallup now has Obama up 49-44
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110533/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Now-Leads-McCain-Points.aspx
Two weeks ago it was the exact opposite.
I don’t think they will go the Pauline Hanson / Zimbabwe path on this one
Ronster
It’s reality check time.
1. McCain Missed The Vote For Final Passage Because He Was Campaigning In New Hampshire. John McCain missed the final vote on Phil Gramms banking deregulation bill because he was campaigning in New Hampshire. [NPR, Morning Edition, 11/5/99; S. 900, Vote #354, 11/4/99]
2. McCain: I Have A Long Voting Record In Support Of Deregulation. The St. Petersburg Times quoted McCain at a Senate Commerce Committee hearing as having said, I have a long voting record in support of deregulation. [St. Petersburg Times, 6/5/03]
3. McCain: I Dont Think Anyone Who Wants To Increase The Burden Of Government Regulation And Higher Taxes Has Any Real Understanding Of Economics. During a McCain Town Hall in Inez, Kentucky, John McCain said, When we come out of this recession and we will because I believe that the fundamentals of our economy are good Sen. Clinton wants the government to make the decisions for you on your health care, I want the families to make the decisions on their health care. I dont think anyone who wants to increase the burden of government regulation and higher taxes has any real understanding of economics and the economy and what is needed in order to ensure the future of this country. [McCain Town Hall in Inez, Kentucky, 4/23/08; emphasis added]
Time to stick a fork in him. He’s done.
SNIP: Tedious personal attack deleted – The Management.
So does McCain want to go to war with Spain now?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/the-brain-in-mccain-under-strain-about-spain/2008/09/19/1221331207145.html
This may be of interest, since it comes from a leading liberal journal
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200809u/mccain-economics
Let me see if I have this straight . . .
* If you grow up in Hawaii , raised by your grandparents, you’re “exotic, different.”
* Grow up in Alaska eating mooseburgers, you are a quintessential American story.
* If your name is Barack you’re a radical, unpatriotic Muslim.
* Name your kids Willow , Trig and Track, you’re a maverick.
* Graduate from Harvard law School and you are unstable.
* Attend 5 different small colleges before graduating,
you’re well grounded.
* If you spend 3 years as a brilliant community organizer, become the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, create a voter registration drive that registers 150,000 new voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law professor, spend 8 years as a State Senator representing a district with over 750,000 people, become chairman of the state Senate’s Health and Human Services committee, spend 4 years in the United States Senate representing a state of 13 million people while sponsoring 131 bills and serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works and Veteran’s Affairs committees, you don’t have any real leadership experience..
* If your total resume is: local weather girl, 4 years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town with less than 7,000 people, 20 months as the governor of a state with only 650,000 people, then you’re qualified to become the country’s second highest ranking executive.
* If you have been married to the same woman for 19 years while raising 2 beautiful daughters, all within Protestant churches, you’re not a real Christian.
* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich heiress, and left your disfigured wife and married the heiress the next month, you’re a Christian.
* If you teach responsible, age appropriate sex education, including the proper use of birth control, you are eroding the fiber of society.
* If , while governor, you staunchly advocate abstinence only, with no other option in sex education in your state’s school system while your unwed teen daughter ends up pregnant , you’re very responsible.
* If your wife is a Harvard graduate lawyer who gave up a position in a prestigious law firm to work for the betterment of her inner city community, then gave that up to raise a family, your family’s values don’t represent America ’s.
* If your husband is nicknamed “First Dude”, with at least one DWI conviction and no college education, who didn’t register to vote until age 25 and once was a member of a group that advocated the secession of Alaska from the USA , your family is extremely admirable.
OK, much clearer now.
I hope you’re not claiming to have written that, Diogenes
It’s reality check time for rusted on Obama supporters instead of pretending he is either a messiah or supported preventing this financial mess
I produce Senate voting records (#99) proving 90% of Democrats including Biden voted for th deregulation Bill (Gramm-Leach-Bliley) My point being both politcal Partys incl McCain supported this Bill and specificaly 90% of Democrats INCLUDING your VP BIDEN so they’re all responsible My challenge is : disprove it ??
I produce evidence (#138) proving Obama received th 2nd highest total donations from Sub Prime culprits Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac over a 19 year period of ALL 550 odd congress pollies , despite only being there just 4 years
.
(Obama $126,349 vs McCain $21550) My challenge is : disprove it ??
I say these donations made Obama ‘compromised’ preventing Obama demanding proper regulation of Sub Prime culprits Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac in 2006 Senate
My challenge is : disprove it ??
I produce evidence from Senate records of McCain on 6th May 2006 demanding regulation of Sub Prime culprits Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac and accurately FORCASTING
this financial mess without it My challenge is : disprove it ??
(or do you want me to quote th speech ?)
Rusted on liberal elitiest egg heads faction of supporting Obama with 000’s of red herring posts misleading those who don’t hav time to research , does not camoflage Obama’s ‘compromised’ above donations nor his (& all Partys) abject complicity not to act to prevent this financial markets collapse , despite McCain’s 2006 provable accurate warnings
Believing phoney Obama is 100% perfect and maverick McCain is 100% always wrong shows reel objectivity Want regulation go to democrat left wing Gore Hillary & Edwards & there Keynes type economic beliefs , an economic philosophy Obama rejects
Adam
No it got sent to me “as is” by a friend. There was no authorship or reference, so I just stuck it up. I thought it was quite funny.
Ron, why try and convince us? We don’t get to vote. whether any of us support Obama or not will make not one jot of difference to the result. I still hope Obama gets in. The last thing we need is a continuation of the Bush years. Full stop.
Ron
That’s a straw man argument and you know it. No-one has ever said McCain is 100% bad and Obama is 100% good, except on Daily Kos. Anyone can cherry-pick facts but the preponderance of the evidence shows that McCain has been a supporter of deregulation and Obama is more moderate, probably akin to the view of most Aussie politicians (we don’t seem to have a right wing party calling for open slather).
We had one in the 1970s, started by John Singleton and variously called the Progress Party and the Workers’ Party. It was a pure free market libertarian party, though not especially “right wing” otherwise. It found some support in WA, but fizzled away after Hawke was elected. Economic libertarianism cuts so strongly against the grain of Australian political culture that I doubt it will ever find an audience. There is of course a libertarian faction in the Liberal Party, but they have majorly disappointed by both Fraser and Howard, who despite their rhetoric both turned into high-taxing big-spending nixonian populist opportunists.
#155
you did NOT challenge a single fact I posted in my #152 blog
Adam
The pure free market libertarian party was called the Worker’s Party! You’re kidding me.
Nope. It was meant to suggest that the capitalists were the real “workers”, while the unions and the public sector were sponging off them.
Gary Bruce
This first comment is not for your comment on : I hav been disengenuously criticised over Obama for months by a band “pretend” Labor supporters that allows them credibility…who ar in fact either Greens and or intellegentsia “political correctness” who hav little interst in Labor practicle solutions of equity & social justice Abit of illusion here “casting” me rather than th info/facts I provide To me they’re just keystrokes
Secondly , I realize you ar a dinkum Labor supporter I hav no problem with any reel Labor person supporting Obama and not wanting another Bush I would never therefore critiscise a reel Labor person at all for doing so But I’m yet to encounter a RUSTED ON 100% committed Obama supporter who is
However for me , having done extensive research I’ve found Obama is not a reel “left” pollie in fundamental Labor type areas like universal healthcare , Kyoto or even his economic philosophies etc etc So I can not support him
Obviously I can never support McCain because he’s “right’ even though he’s less Republican than most Republicans That does not stop me from objectively agreeing with some things he says , even though he’d never ever get my “vote”
So that makes me an “informal voter” Others who hav misgivings about Obama (but ar not 100% rusted on) will now support Obama …no query from me However I must say from my research that if I thought McCain was another Bush (but he is not) , then I’d probably be forced on principal to support Obama as another Bush would be a nightmare
Apart from Obama’s protectionism severely hurting oz farmers & exporters & FA , his electon will not affect my life so I blog solely out of ‘interest’ , however if he’s elected I will still drink with my mates & support my footy team & Kevin07 with POTUS Obama simply just another overseas politican getting 15 seconds on my TV set from time to time
160 – fair enough Ron. Collingwood I hope.
Gary , well 90% of posters believe th anti Ron “casting” , and you can tell how much I’m worried about that
No , not Magpies , nor if it helps eith th Bombers or Blues Actualy as a non Magpie & non Interstate team supporter , I’ve never understood why they’re so disliked & aprt from my side never mind them winning …at his point GG will need a scotch
Ron
As a matter of interest, what IS Obama’s health policy. I must admit I took it for granted he would support a type of universal health care. To not do so would be a complete sell out of ordinary working Americans when they need all the help from government they can get. Although I’m not a Hilary fan, I’m fairly sure she would have pushed for it because she tried it once before under Bill Clinton and the vested interests blocked her.
Obama has said many times that if he is elected President everyone will be healthy. Also wealthy and wise, and beautiful too. Furthermore, the sun will shine, birds will sing, the oceans will rise (or is it fall?), and the planet will be healed. Love, peace and sexual fulfillment will reign upon the earth. Millions believe this, and if only cynics like Darn could believe it too, it would happen.
Adam
What did I say which could in any way be interpreted as cynical?
OK, “sceptics” then. You expressed scepticism about Obama having a health policy. That is nearly as sinful as cynicism.
Adam
If anything I simply expressed a lack of knowledge about Obama’s health policy. Perhaps you are reading some of your own apparent cynicism into what other people are really saying.
You need faith, not knowledge. Just join the millions who trust that Obama will solve everything by the sheer power of love, hope, audacity, rhetoric and things his father told him.
As Gary correctly said , no one changes there pre conceived opinions nevertheless info follows
In April this year at th HEIGHT of close Primary election contest between Hillary and Obama , when both desperately wanted Edwards support , Elizabeth Edwards who NO Democrat would ever dare criticise for her longterm passionate support for Universal healthcare
…and yet Elizabeth Edwards conscience forced her to publicly support Hillary’s universal healthcare policy ….such was Obama’s NON universal healthcare plans
Obviously given sensitivity of th close race & John Edwards then wish not to pick sides her carefully chosen words need to be read in that specific context
‘In an interview with “Good Morning America,” Robin Roberts in april 2008 Elizabeth Edwards, wife of former presidential candidate John Edwards defended her surprise support for Sen. Hillary Clinton’s health plan today over the approach advocated by her rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
Elizabeth Edwards said “she believed Clinton’s health-care plan was more inclusive than that of Obama’s.”
Futher she said “You need that universality in order to get the cost savings. … I just have more confidence in Sen. Clinton’s policy than Sen. Obama’s on this particular issue,”
If you wish specific details proving Hillarys (and incidently John Edwards almost identical universal healthcare Plan) WERE universal healthcare vs Obama’s which is a dressed up John Howard “free market” if you can pay good luck to you policy with typical John Howard “subsidies” (except for kids) , plus no specific end cost per user , then happy to give you details
Obama’s health plan matchs & is consistent with his nuanced free market economic philosophy , whereas Edwards & Hillarys match & is consistent with Labor type economic philosophies
and for goodness sake don’t quote his disengenuous pretty words geek site , its sfull of as much reel relevance and carefully crafted words for th rusted on to believe as th bullsh.t listed by him under CC
I am not sure of Obama’s health policy but better no policy than this policy -
McCain on banking and health
OK, a correspondent directs me to John McCain’s article, Better Health Care at Lower Cost for Every American, in the Sept./Oct. issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. You might want to be seated before reading this.
Here’s what McCain has to say about the wonders of market-based health reform:
Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.
So McCain, who now poses as the scourge of Wall Street, was praising financial deregulation like 10 seconds ago — and promising that if we marketize health care, it will perform as well as the financial industry!
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/19/mccain-on-banking-and-health/
Sometimes I don’t think he is really trying.
QUESTION directed to me was about Obama’s NON support for universal healthcare plan …red herrings posts away from that to mcCain ar typical rusted on Obama supporters red herrings posts…more will follow
REFER my #169 for details
Why universality & universal healthcare needed ?
Well there ar 45 million US people with NO healthcare Insurance , and a consevative minimum of a further 390 million under insured
When they ar sick or there kids ar , and this is not th liberal elitists but th ‘poor’ we ar talking about , they often just don’t bloody go to a doctor OR rarely do or use there “medical expertise” to decide OR not depending on little monies they hav
….pretty basic “healthcare universalality” Labor philosophy needed to me that Obama does not support
correction 45 million uninsured and a further 30 million (not 390 million) under insured
Adam (168)
“You need faith, not knowledge. Just join the millions who trust that Obama will solve everything by the sheer power of love, hope, audacity, rhetoric and things his father told him”
And you call ME cynical. .
.
Ron and Thomas
Thank you for your respective replies on health care. It’s disappointing that Obama apparently doesn’t have a universal health care policy, but it’s hard to make a case for McCain on that issue.
Obama’s health policy here.
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/healthcare/
Hahahahah Unbelievable – Republican Rangle calls Palin disabled.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvovJ1Q-Ogg&eurl=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/
Rangel is a Democrat.
woop yes Dem.
If I say it enough times to myself, I might just believe it. There is no difference between Obama and McCain on healthcare and financial deregulation.
McCain on banking and health
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/19/mccain-on-banking-and-health/
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
Jonathan has a good article on the Wall St woes. McCain really has botched his response. He’s flip-flopped like a leaf in Hurricane Ike. When he said that the economy is not his strong point, it set the stage (note to self; if you ever enter politics don’t ever be modest or tell the truth). His comment that the fundamentals of the economy are strong is described as “the biggest faux pas committed by either of them all year.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13649.html
Palin may have boosted McCain after the convention, but it’s my opinion that she’ll tank more and more as moderates consider what a true right-winger she is. This will have the effect of dragging McCain down.
As to Hillary, she was extremely divisive, hated by the Right and many Indies, and would never have got much over 50%. I think Obama can probably win by a substantial margin, but we’ll see. The first pres debate is next Sat morning our time.
I agree. Getting a bit sick of the Hillary love-fest in here saying that she would being doing alot better than Obama right now. I reckon she just might not have been, and that her and Bill’s dirty laundry would have most certainly have been aired to re-energise the Repubs if she was in the race.
Dario @ 184,
Quite so. The Clintonistas keep telling us she would have done better, but it’s not provable, nor disprovable. All we do know is that Obama, with much less public profile than Hillary 18 months ago, outwitted her in the primary contest.
If Obama wins the whole “Hillary would have done better” thing will become a historical footnote, a bit like discussing whether McCain would have been a better President than Bush if he’d been nominated in 2000.
If Obama loses the question will be one of the great historical what-ifs, and the launching pad for Hillary 2012. But still nothing more than interesting conjecture, ultimately.
By the way, I agree with comments of Diogenes and others that the race is looking good for Obama now.
One caveat though: this election has had so many twists, it wouldn’t amaze me if there was more to come.
Diogenes @ 182,
McCain’s comment about his lack of knowledge of the economy is a classic example of why many people can’t help liking him, notwithstanding his irascibility and his crappy VP pick. What other serious politician would say something like that? Much more fun than the cardboard cut-outs who abound these days.
DARN & Gary
#175
“It’s disappointing that Obama apparently doesn’t have a universal health care policy, but it’s hard to make a case for McCain on that issue.”
Yes you ar right on both counts Darn , Obama does not hav a universal healthcare policy It was reason I quoted Elizabeth Edwards in my #169 because no one in USA has more credbility on pushing for universal healthcare than her Yes I agree also re McCains that yuo did not ask my opinion of , its a free market p[olicy ..anti Labor principal
PS/ to avoid confusion , i quote very first 3 lines of Obama’s from his site:
“We now face an opportunity — and an obligation — to turn the page on the failed politics of yesterday’s health care debates… My plan begins by covering every American”
Th disengenuous words “covering every American” is th same as McCains policy which also “covers” every American Its clever use of th word “cover” when they should corectly use th word “addresses” every American…what both Obama & McCain policys do is of course ADDRESS every American (but every american under both there policys is not “covered” !!…unless th “poor” chose to be covered and IF th “poor” can afford to be covered !!..so would a Howard policy “cover” every Aussie
Whereas universal healthcare automatically covers all citizens Adults & kids and at a fixed cost per citizen’s weekly wage…then a ‘gap’ fee for usage
Daily Kos Tracking Poll
Obama hits 50%
Obama 50%
McIdiot 42%
Also, the gloss is fading from Sarah Palin, she’s starting to become a real liability for McCain.
I think the polls showed the other day that Palin’s popularity was waning fast. The danger with that is that people will then begin to look at all dirt on her, the stories and her lack of appropriate experience etc and mark her down. It was a neccessary gambit I guess but maybe McCain will wish he chose the one he really wanted.
If Troopergate delivers before the election as it is meant to (goodness knows what kind of legal tricks the Repubs have up their sleeves) then it could get ugly
I think the trend towards Obama will continue. I don’t really see what McCain has to counter it. There is still a lot more bad stuff to come out about the US finance scandals. Even if it is stabiised now, Obama and Biden can point out the huge amount of public money that has gone into cleaning up the mess – hundreds of billions. And there are still job cuts and a recession to follow.
Personaly I wouldn’t descrie myself as a Clintonista – my firest preference was Gore then Edwards, then Clinton and then Obama with others discounted. I have nothing against Obama and still think he can (and now should) win. But I felt that the media hype around him was more than what was warranted. I still think Hillary could have responded to events quickly and well if she had the chance. But its academic – after all the scandals of Bush, and now a recesion to boot, Obama really should win from here.
From Andy at EV. It’s going to take at least a week for the ONE TRILLION DOLLARS to fade from the voters memory, which will take us to the debates. Is McCain going to win voters over with his confused rhetoric, hopelessly tangled flip-flopping on the economy delivered like a walking cadaver? Not bloody likely. Remember that McCain has to pretend to be a staunch small government Reaganite and a market reformer simultaneously, Obama just has to pretend he knows something about the economy.
Perhaps Yup-Yup will thrash Biden in her debate with her superior knowledge. Or perhaps she’ll go the “wardrobe malfunction” route for a few votes.
And Andy agrees with earlier commentators about this;
Diogenes
That is a good point on the one trillion dollar cost of the bailouts. It is why the Republicans deseve so much criticism of their economic record under Bush. Neither side really proposed a solution to the problems of the CDO/CDS fraud until it was too late. But in a time of prosperity the budget should have been in surplus to have cash on hand for something like this. Instead their huge debt means they will take a long time to pay off the bill and recover. I’d hate to be a public servant asking for more money for health care in the US in the next few years. There won’t be any. Think of Victoria in the early 90s.
The selfishness and petulence of the stock market players is unbelievagle. They just get a $500bn – $700bn gift from the govt to save their arses and now they complaining that they wont be allowed to play the game exactly the same way they did before. These traders ought to feel grateful they haven’t had to jump of any roofs.
Markets Soar, but New Rules Upset Traders
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/business/worldbusiness/20markets.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
Gallup Daily – BO 50 – McCain 44
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110551/Gallup-Daily-Obama-50-McCain-44.aspx
BO’s rating equals his highest ever…
ANd ABC will be showing the debate live next Saturday (11am I think)
TP
That article is absolutely breath-taking. These guys have stuffed up so enormously that the Government has had to create a $1 TRILLION “Bad Bank” to take over all their worthless bad debts, using either the largesse of the American tax-payers or by “debasing the coin” (which was Diogenes’ prophetic crime BTW) and causing inflation. This gets them out of the biggest hole since the Depression and lets them keep their jobs of losing investors money with no repercussions. And then they whinge that there a few minor restrictions.
Here’s another brilliant article on the Wall St Bailout, which is being referred to as Capitalist Socialism. He savages the Democrats for, yet again, blindly doing what Bush tells them to do because it’s politically expedient and they don’t like asking questions.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/09/20/bailout/
Anyone who tries to blame the Democrats for this is a joke IMO
Does anyone think that Bush’s massive trillion dollar bail out (a good move IMHO) will assist the McCain campaign?
Nope
It might do, if gets the issue OFF THE FRONT PAGES, which is what McCain badly needs. He can’t win an election on the economy. He can only win by getting the key demographics to remember why they don’t like Obama and why they don’t think he’s up to being commander-in-chief. When McCain was getting that message through, he drew ahead. Now that attention is focussed on the economy, he is behind again, though not by much. He is now really hostage to Bush and the Fed. If they can stabilise the markets quickly, McCain can still recover. If not, not.
But a trillion dollar bailout doesn’t get the economy off the front pages just like that… it becomes the front pages, and is still about the economy
Its not Bush’s bailout nor did Bush cause it Under US Constitution th “purse strings” ar controlled by Congress which Democrats control so th bailout and its size & use required pre approval of Democrat Congress
Further current bailout plan in detail was provided by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson for pre approved to both Obama & McCain camps , so neither can claim th ‘medicine’ prescribed is wrong either (but I would in part)
Origin of this financial mess is lack of market regulation and specifically Lending methods & accountability with Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac who hav $5.1 trillion debts against many houses & property not worth that and with many consumers who cann’t afford to repay
Congress hav been aware of this potential problem since 2003 when first of 5 Bills over th years attempted to fix above Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac…those companies successfully lobbyied Democrat & Republican politcans NOT to do anything
In fact Republicans since first Bill in 2003 controlled Congress for first 4 years and Democrats for last 2 years hav controlled Congress , were aware of problem as it was tabled and could hav enacted Legislation both Partys failed to do so Obama & McCain hav been sitting there in th Senate ALL through this Why aren’t Obama & McCain criticised
Ditto Fedeeral budgets , both Partys hav controlled congress & both hav approved monstrous Budget deficits as well There system is different from ‘oz’ where here Governemnt is responsible..there th POTUS is only one player in budget process & obviously has responsibility but does NOT fully control “purse strings”
Better to go with “spin” for voters and simplicity with one liners blame one Party or other , and he who can ’spin’ this best will be POTUS
Ron
That’s absolutely true. Fortunately for Obama, the Dems have only controlled Congress for the last 2 years. The six years of Repug Congress and eight years of Bush will outweigh the Dems responsibility in the minds of the voters. The Greenwald article I linked said pretty much what you said but he points out that it’s just part of a pattern of poor behaviour by the Dems. It’s little wonder that the Democrat-controlled Congress has even lower approval ratings than Bush.
I’d be very surprised if Obama can’t spin this better than McCain.
Isn’t it remarkable how the champions of free and private enterprise turn to government intervention when the free enterprise sytem begins to falter. what happened to the “get the government off my back” catchcry? What happened to the small government is good government mantra? It just shows you how important and useful government involvement can be on our lives doesn’t it?
Rules and specifics set down by the non partisan commision that controls the Presidential Debates –
“The Obama and McCain campaigns have agreed to an unusual free-flowing format for the three televised presidential debates, which begin Friday, but the McCain camp fought for and won a much more structured approach for the questioning at the vice-presidential debate, advisers to both campaigns said Saturday.”
http://tinyurl.com/4ruykv
I’m surprised they didn’t try and get the VP debate called off altogether. Palin is going to get hosed.
Dario,
Sure she will but to have it scrapped altogether would admit that they know this. They can’t be seen to look scared so they have to make the best out of a bad lot LOL …. so why they got as structured a format as they could manage
It may not matter much who is the Dem candidate if they do not get the voting machines under control.
There is some startling information coming out about Ohio 2004 and it
looks like the Ohio 2004 court case is gathering some good momentum .
Explosive events are happening and they are happening by the day and by the hour. They are making as much of it public as they can before November.
The link to a 6 page PDF Affidavit by Dr. Richard Hayes Phillips toward the end is a good read. He names names from all walks.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Explosive-Events-Happening-by-Velvet-Revolution-080920-704.html
With the USA has just been through the BIGGEST bank robbery in history, say at the minimum of US$3 Trillion and it looks like the USA people are going to pay it. Woody Guthrie got it absolutely right when he wrote: “Some rob you by the gun and some rob you by the pen”. More importantly, it is the Republican pen.
So it looks like the only thing that can stop Obama from winning is the elephant in the room:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13658.html
Black, black, black, is the colour of my POTUS’ hair as the song wails. But it has always been like that anyway from the beginning. Nothing has changed. Mr. Obama, nothing has changed.
This bloke must have got his writing inspirations from reading Bushfire Bills’ advice to KR
http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-albatross-around-the-n-by-W-Christopher-Epl-080920-451.html
It would be sad indeed for the USA if they voted Obama out because of race just at a point in history when the USA need a new paradigm. I just watched Murdoch endorsing Obama and saying how exciting he is and that America needed this change etc…
So all the stars are aligning for Obama, even a financial catastrophe yet….that nasty little thing could condemn him and the USA.
I also believe the same is true for Australia – Rudd is the paradigm we need at the moment but the Australian Republican media are still welded to the same types as we saw destroy the American economy.
McCain has already screwed up one part of government and he isn’t even halfway through the national campaign yet. Geez, TP, I hope against hope that my fellow Americans aren’t that stupid …..
****
Gov. Sarah Palin has surrendered important gubernatorial duties to the Republican presidential campaign. McCain staff are handling public and press questions about actions she has taken as governor. The governor who said, “Hold me accountable,” is hiding behind the hired guns of the McCain campaign to avoid accountability.
Is it too much to ask that Alaska’s governor speak for herself, directly to Alaskans, about her actions as Alaska’s governor?
A press conference Thursday showed how skewed Alaska’s relationship with its own governor has become.
McCain-Palin campaign spokesman Ed O’Callaghan announced that Todd Palin will not comply with a subpoena to testify about his role in Troopergate, the Legislature’s investigation into whether Palin abused her power in forcing out former public safety commissioner Walt Monegan.
O’Callaghan also announced that Alaska’s governor is “unlikely” to cooperate with the investigation by the Alaska Legislature about questionable conduct by Alaska’s chief executive.
Monday, he and campaign sidekick Meg Stapleton stood before Alaskans and defended the official personnel decision by Alaska’s governor to fire Alaska’s public safety commissioner. ABC News reported that Gov. Palin’s official press secretary, Bill McAllister, paid by the state of Alaska, didn’t even know the McCain staffers were meeting the press to defend his boss.
*****
http://allspinzone.com/wp/2008/09/21/unelected-unappointed-mccain-officials-running-alaska/
A huge crowd of more than 20,000 to see Obama today in North Carolina!
I’m written off the South for him, with the possible exceptions of Virginia and Florida, but if McCain’s poll numbers continue to decrease, a few of these other Southern states might start getting interesting!
The Obama surge appears to be starting. Last week we had the narrowing and then the reversal. If Sarah Palin starts having real media conferences and answering hard questions, things could change. Which way is anyone’s guess.
“I hope against hope that my fellow Americans aren’t that stupid …..”
Stupid ? A Country that has two “right” Partys , one “liberal” and one “consevative” whereas ‘oz’ and UK and France etc actualy hav a clearly defined “left’ and ‘right’ Party to chose from
Stupid ? A Democrat Party whose candidate does not support universal healthcare , does not support ratifying Kyoto , but believes in non Labor type & non Keynes type nuanced econamic rationalism of free markets & look at th financial ruins….and then selects a VP Biden with an identical Bush Iraq policy policy “to stay the course in Iraq to win”
None of those 4 areas ar “left’ positions , and thats called a choice….vs an unacceptable “renditions torture gittmo’ alternative A choice you get when you don’t hav a choice
A Democrat Party whose turned on its ‘left’ wing of Gore Hillary & Edwards who oppose ALL 4 of th above positions , universal healthcare , Kyoto , Labor type economic model & Iraq
Stupid ? voters who elected a 68 year old B grade actor in Reagan , who elected a dim wit in Bush Then what voters Stupid ? after electing Bush th dim wit invades Iraq & finds no WMD’s then th voters re-elect th dim wit a second time
Stupid ? US is like a mother in Law , who gotta hav them……but you don’t hav to accept all there standards (fortunately)…..I’ll take an unambiguous ‘oz’ Labor vs Liberal politcal choise anyday where choice is clear for all and without th NON policy based “yes we can” bullsh.it razmatazz th rusted on believe in in almost religous zealousness
Suggest Al Gore not having to run against an incumbant POTUS & whilst curently academic , at this point would be leading by a landslide & thats th ‘message’ of th above But then who cares
I know I’m not supposed to advocate online polls, but I thought this one from the Daily Telegraph gauging Australian attitudes to the presidential race was quite fun.
An interesting take on why the Democrats find it so hard to win even when conditions are ideal.
Rovean tactics alone do not win the Republican Party elections.
This is a center-right country, and Democrats ignore this at their own peril
http://www.newsweek.com/id/160083
Tommy
Shame really – i wish the Americans would crack down hard on the religious right and any fellow travelers – the words they send out are getting people beaten up or killed after all
The Democrats lose presidential elections because they are such a cheap date for the latest liberal firebrand that comes along, who they swoon for without checking out his credentials. They’ve been doing this since the days of William Jennings Bryan and Al Smith, but they never learn. Given the circumstances it’s hard to see how Obama could lose, but he’s giving it his best shake.
Adam:
didn’t Al Smith lose because he was a Catholic?
Herbert Hoover might have saved more Jews from the Holocaust than the documented racist and anti-semite FDR
If the Republicans had stayed in power the US would never have entered the war at all. They were for appeasing both Germany and Japan. Hitler and Hirohito would have divided up the rest of the world between them and the Repubs couldn’t have cared less provided Wall St was safe. FDR was the greatest statesman of the 20th century and don’t you forget it.
Adam:
He was still a racist and anti-semite – any “good points” are not an excusal for the bad things he did – as you’re a gay man I’m surprised you defend him
as for the current election i think McCain has to bet on people in the “heartland” still taking him seriously – or at least more seriously than Obama
*Rolls eyes* He was no more a racist and anti-Semite than most other people were at that time. Let’s try and look at things in their proper historical perspective shall we? Did Pericles support female suffrage? What was George Washington’s line on global warning? FDR’s greatness must be seen in the context of the politics and society of his day. He led a very reluctant nation into a war that had to be fought, and won it, thereby saving the civilised world.
William @ 219,
No worries
….. I read that site regularly and missed that one. SO can you be so kind as to post the URL in the way of a followup when they do their summary article based upon peoples opinions? That way, we can all see the results and won’t miss it, thanks 
* I gave them some good lefty type answers too LOL …….
*******
Davis’ record on this score is charming. USNews:
“McCain’s campaign manager Rick Davis was hired—after running McCain’s failed 2000 presidential campaign—to head up a group called the Homeownership Alliance, a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac advocacy group, which the Wall Street Journal reported (in August 2000) had a website creed of being dedicated to: “exposing and defeating trends that would harm consumer access to the lowest-cost mortgage option.” The group viewed as threats those who are “seeking to spread unfounded fears about risks to the housing system.”"
“Unfounded fears”. Gotta love it.
http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2008/09/chutzpah.html
McCain is tied hook, line and sinker to the economy going down the drain ……
Adam:
spare us the laissez-faire historical relativism – you have a phD after all
As this is now off-topic I will take a break out of respect for William
Obama has officially moved away from a 50 state campaign to 46 states. They have written off North Dakota, Georgia, Idaho and Alaska to McCain. Funny that last one
…….. Guess Carter doesn’t carry coattails any more now that he is well and truely years out of office ……
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/09/obama-campaign.html
More on McCain’s attempts to distance himself from Bush …
When Gov. Sarah Palin flew home to Alaska for the first time since being named the Republican vice presidential nominee, she brought along at least half a dozen new advisers to conduct briefings, stage-manage her first television interview and help her prepare for a critical debate next month. And virtually every member of the team shared a common credential: years of service to President Bush. ………… The clutch of Bush veterans helping to coach Palin reflects a larger reality about Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign: Far from being a group of outsiders to the Republican Party power structure, it is now run largely by skilled operatives who learned their crafts in successive Bush campaigns and various jobs across the Bush government over the past eight years.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/21/AR2008092101608.html?hpid=topnews
Adam
I hadn’t picked you for a post-modernist.
Mary
It is somewhat offensive to suggest that Adam should have a different attitude to racism and anti-Semitism based on any of his personal preferences.
JulieM,
McCain is a Republican. Deal with it!
Republicans have a pretty good track record of winning elections. Might be a good idea to consult with those who know how to win?
Obviously, you prefer the feel good nothingness of Obama.
And because I have a PhD in history I don’t make ahistorical judgements about people and things in the past, or at least I try not to. I’m well aware that FDR subscribed to the unthinking racist and anti-Semitic ideology of his class and time. But let’s not overstate this – several of his closest advisors were Jewish, he appointed Henry Morgenthau as Treasury Secretary and Felix Frankfurter to the Supreme Court. His record on civil rights was patchy, since he needed the support of Southern Democrats to get his bills through Congress. But in 1941 he issued executive orders guaranteeing blacks a fair share of wartime jobs. During his tenure the black vote shifted from heavily Republican to overwhelmingly Democrat, so obviously black voters thought he was on their side. It’s a mark of his greatness that he was able to rise above his limitations and do the great things he did. Also he had the good fortune to be married to Eleanor Roosevelt, one of the most progressive thinkers of her time. As I said above, I tremble to think what would have happened to the US and the world had he not been in power when he was.
Most of the great people in history ascribed to some views that would be frowned on today. Paedophilia (let’s see if that gets through William’s filter) was popular, as was owning slaves, cannibalism, witch-hunting etc etc.
Jefferson owned slaves, Newton was an alchemist, Einstein never ascribed to the Copenhagen view of quantum mechanics, Alexander the Great liked little boys. I think the post-modernists were right about everyone being a product of their time and background (ie a social construct).
Diogenes:
no offence was intended – I think I’ve being hanging around leftist/feminist blogs and groups too much – they take the “ahistorical” view of past figures a lot – no mention that virtually everyone supported the White Australia policy etc
McCain is labelling himself as a maverick, and nothing like GWB, yet he has all his advisors. Julie’s point was well made. McCain the ‘maverick’ is a fraud.
Adam
Dare I ask what the History PhD was in?
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ioHc80xKMiATnqCpK0cDKJzk_nPQD93BG01G0
I do find it curious that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is such a hurried man, especially he was once Investment Banker No: 1 with Goldman Sachs in 2006. It’s kinda like Dracula is now in-charged of the Blood Bank and he is in a hurry to dole out blood to help his blood sucking vampire friends.
A PhD in history is a PhD in history. It’s not “in” anything. My thesis was on an Australian topic.
Adam
Sorry, my lazy terminology. The “in” I referred to was the topic. I wondered if it was an aspect of WWII.
Diog, I have a PhD in Nothing. Am a disciple of the Monkey King, the master awareness of emptiness.
Dario,
And, Obama is not?
Obama’s team is full of Washington specialists. Yet his message is Change from old politics?
Everyone takes quality advice from where they can. In your world, McCain must eschew advice from like thinkers.
What a crock full of nonsense.
Finns,
Most Dolphins are happy to be able to write.
GG, i was serious:
The Monkey and the Dolphin
http://fairy-tales-fables-business.blogspot.com/2006/11/communicate-truthfully-and-effectively.html
http://bp0.blogger.com/_RfsQkzyp4tY/RYQlzldY51I/AAAAAAAAAIA/_U8vMkWNm1E/s1600-h/the_monkey_and_the_dolphin.jpg
233, you nailed that one on the head
…… Not a Republican or Liberal bone in this body 
…….
Mary Hannah Wade
I find it remarkable you wish to query opinions of one of greatest POTUS in US history FDR , who cares retrospectively now if he did not like j.ws , or did not like Catholics , or did not like Methodists or smoked pot who retrospectively cares , reality is he brought US out a depression & saved th World from Nazi’s & Japan….thats why 99% of ‘left’ laud his achievements & th other 1% don’t count
MLK had lots of mistress’s , so did JFK , so what , who retrospectively cares also
Of course you did not also mention th genocide th j.ws hav perpetuated on Palestinians for 40 years …no just worry about FDR who did no such thing , politcal correctness gone mad
Greensborough Growler, the Brownlow vote is getting ready to kick off so I’m signing off to tune in. For the record, as Dario correctly points out, McCain isn’t a maverick. Not my point, facts, mate. They are Bush’s men. I’ll be more than willing to take this up with you the day AFTER the election (if need be) but I’ll hold out till then. Go get ‘em Obama! Go get ‘em Rudd! Go get ‘em Swan! and GO GET ‘EM Brent Harvey! Night from the ACT
Hey, it’s been awhile since the 3 amigos are together.
At least Obama is proposing a change of party
No, World War II, the Third Reich and the Holocaust have been long term interests, but a bit difficult to write a thesis on from Australia, and with only limited German. My thesis was on H B Higgins and his very interesting family – three generations of Melbourne radicals from the Boer War to the Vietnam War.
McCain now out to $2.66 on Betfair – his odds were as low as $2.24 at one stage of the Palin mania.
Post-Palin bounce well and truly over.
Adam
Have you read The Nazi Doctors: Medical Killing and the Psychology of Genocide by Robert Jay Lifton? It’s the best book I’ve read on how genocide happens.
Going to take something big to turn it around from here. I don’t think Presidential races do much to-ing and fro-ing in the closing weeks.
The Democrats have finally heard some of the sane voices, best expressed by Greenwald, and maybe even Ron. They are not going to sign a blank cheque for Paulson and his banker friends. They actually want something in return for their $700B. You’d think that $700B would probably get you something, even if you can only cut the salaries of the bastards who caused the biggest bailout since the Depression.
As Hill Debates Bailout, Wall St. Shifts Continue
Paulson, GOP Oppose Democrats’ Proposal to Limit Executive Pay
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/21/AR2008092102060.html?hpid=topnews
If you think about it, the Democrats have performed an old fashioned Howard wedge on McCain by linking the $700B to cutting failed CEOs wages. The Repugs are saying no. Given that the US taxpayer is giving the money and considering that about 10% of Americans agree with the bailout of failed businesses, the Repugs have a PR problem.
Will McCain go against the Repugs and his friends the bankers, or will he guarantee full pay for CEO’s who have bankrupted their companies using the tax-payers money to pay the salary? That’s a very nice wedge!
Daily Kos Tracking Poll
OBAMA 49
MCIDIOT 43
McCain only enjoys a lead with the over 60s, all other age groups are voting for Obama
It is indeed. They are getting their act together nicely at the right time.
Diogenes (256)
That’s a potentially deadly wedge. Someone’s been doing their homework.
I said in advance I did not agree with th plan as publicised
Queston is whether this becomes a polical circus of 550 congress pollies all wanted there ideas thrown in , a blame point scoring exwercise or facing that whole financial system is teetering and needs an immediate injection right now but with trade offs
Suspect cheap politcs will win
My original thoughts were economic solutions nit politcal games , so first condition I’d want is supervvisory control of who gets th money Then some “re- regulation’ agreement trade off , then require banks to rewrite loans for problem homeowners to reduce repossessions & stabilize housing price drops and then audits of who & how money is used & implement prudential vioability of receipients to an all Party committee
As to CEO wages thats reely chicken fodder to above solving a trillion dollar problemm and should be dropped you cann’t socialise wages at moment more important to keep there CEO etc expertise & get through this , so if that Democrats thats a dumb uneconomic point scoring pitch , who you going to put in there place amateurs & lose more but this time tax payers reel money
However one should put conditions on severance & prevent executive bonus’s which trigger payment on ’sales’ that became ‘bad’ but became ‘unbad’ as Govt bought them
Lets see if either Party ar just politicans or reely understand magnitude of economic ruins whole world economy could plunge into All thats been thrown up is CEO wage cuts , surely more is going to be put up by both Partys
Ah , see Washington Post covers some of this but not all , but they seem to hav scambled ideas as well Clarity of priorities seems first casuality here
A very entertaining take on the current state of America
We’re more French than France.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1843168,00.html?cnn=yes
First it was McCain’s 7 houses, now it’s his 13 cars… and he put his foot right in it. Just can’t take a trick!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/treadmarks-mar-mccain-campaign/2008/09/22/1221935546386.html
Christopher Hitchens condemns Obama’s inability to bury McCain. It’s very sad really. Hillary, all is forgiven, please come back.
http://www.slate.com/id/2200587/
Obama has a 5 point lead in Virginia, according to a new ABC News poll
Obama 50
McFake 45
Diogenes @253. yes I have, it’s very good. I also recommend the recent biography of Karl Brandt if that subject interests you.
Christopher Hitchens asks: Does Obama really want to win? If so, why is he trying so hard to lose?
http://www.slate.com/id/2200587/
“WHY IS OBAMA SO VAPID, HESITANT, AND GUTLESS?” Because (and let the record show that I have been saying this all year), he is a complete and total PHONY. As it happens, the Republicans on Wall St, in a nice irony, has probably handed him the election, but he could still contrive to lose if the debates go the same way as Saddleback – McCain clear and simple, Obama opaque and convoluted. But even if he wins he will be a weak president, worse than Carter. In 2012 he will face a crusading Palin, who by then will have learned where Azerbaijan is and a few other things, and will blow him away.
The latest Rasmussen has VA McCain 50-48.
Interesting article on the BBC about the possibility of a 269-269 tie:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7626471.stm
While I am respectful of the Americans’ respect for and protection of their constitution – you have to think that after 230 or so years, some things might need a bit of revision.
Also Adam, “…a crusading Palin…” is the best description I’ve heard of her in a while. Doesn’t she scare you just a little bit? And even if Obama is a weak president he couldn’t possibly be worse than Bush or Bush II in McCain.
I like strong women.
Like Indira Gandhi?
Golda Meir is another one
Love em.
Oprah for President!
There’s a bit of the “spoilt brats” about you Adam. Obama won the primaries over your “strong woman” even though he stands for much of what she does. Let’s not back him, oh no, he can’t beat my “strong woman” and get away with it.
Then comes the “he’ll lose because he is a phony” line but, wait, the economy goes to hell in a hand basket and it looks like he will win. Well, he can’t get off scot free with that. He beat my “strong woman”.
Then comes the crystal ball phase of your argument. He’s bound to turn out to be a dud anyway and he’ll be beaten by another strong woman, one I have nothing at all politically in common with. Why? Well I think we know why.
Oh, and Adam, give me the winning Tattslotto numbers for next Saturday will you?
Actually he didn’t win the primaries. He won the caucuses. Clinton won all the big primaries, the ones in which real rank-and-file Democrats got to vote. She won (from memory) CA, NY, TX, FL, OH, PA and MA. He won IL. If the Dems had picked all their delegates at primaries, she would have won in a canter. She probably still would have won had her campaign not been so over-confident and neglected the caucus states so badly.
I don’t want to see Palin as President, and of course I don’t seriously claim to know what will happen in 2012. But the scenario I outlined is perfectly possible. I remind you of 1980, when Reagan, derided by the liberal elite as an elderly know-nothing B-grade actor, thrashed Carter, a weak Democrat president.
Cant find the 50/48 Rasmusen, their site still has 48/47 for 22/9/08
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Gary
While I think you might be going a bridge too far with those accusations against Adam, I did have a very similar situation to what you describe with a friend of mine.
He was an absolutely fanatical Hilary supporter and had been well before the primaries even began (I think he was wearing a Hilary ‘08 badge as early as 2005). He was extremely bitter to say the least when Hilary lost the primaries, and almost immediately jumped on the Palin-mania bandwagon. It took some rather careful explaining of Palin’s positions on abortion, evolution and gun-control to make him realise that just because she’s a woman (or even a strong woman), doesn’t mean she’d be a good person to vote for.
Indeed, its that kind of thinking that might (in some slightly dysfunctional parallel Universe) have seen Pauline Hanson as Prime Minister.
Ooooh, but can we try and predict the future now?
Fun fun fun!
McCain wins…
In 2012 Hilary Clinton resoundingly wins the nomination and the presidency with a promise to stop the war in Iran; but she inherits a basket-case economy with a US$1.5 trillion budget deficit.
Obama wins…
Colin Powell secures the Republican nomination. A clever move for the Republicans, as the Southern states, given no white man to vote for, stick with the Republicans and the a few ket swing states in the Mid West and North East go for Powell and his more moderate style. Powell similarly inherits a basket case economy and failed public health system.
Matty Drudge has been relentlessly trying to minimise the seriousness of the “Crash”. He seems to love Palin, which has trumped his dislike of McCain. But he’s now getting despondent about the economy and bailout. It just won’t go away. I think it will play out until the election, despite Paulson and Bush’s effort to make it go away with a blank cheque of taxpayers money. This is his Red light special for today.
Fears emerge over $700bn rescue
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ba48302-88d7-11dd-a179-0000779fd18c.html
Scenario A is quite possible. Scenario B – well Powell had his chance in 2000. Had he run then he would be President now. Apparently his wife talked him out of running. Do we really want a leader of the free world who listens to his wife?
Here’s an important poll (IMHO) about the economy. The caveat is that it was taken after the Crash but before the $700B price tag on a bailout. The salient points are;
1. 2/3 support a bailout in principle
2. 2/3 think the taxpayer will be screwed by the bailout
3. 2/3 disagree with McCain that the economy is “fundamentally sound”
4. 2/3 are “concerned” about the economy, 22% are “scared”
5. Asked who is more responsible for the financial problems, 47 percent blamed the Republicans, 24 percent the Democrats and 20 percent both equally
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/09/americans_back_federal_economi.html
Grant @ 279,
If we are predicting the future, lets try to figure what an Obama cabinet/government might look like. Since Hillary is so big into health issues (I sense she is taking Kennedy’s mantle on this topic), I think that Obama might put her into the cabinet as the Health Secretary.
There’s been an interesting shift in sentiment about the US paulson bailout. Right wingers are starting to complain about it but for different reasons to the left. The Right is concerned that given a likely Obama win, the draconian and unfettered power of the Treasury Secretary to dispense the $700B will be in the hands of a Democrat.
Growing right-wing opposition to the Paulson plan
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/09/22/paulson/index.html
The longer the bailout drags on, the better for Obama it will be
Oh my god! Obama is black
As if the racist part of USA is going to vote for him!!!
Obama up by 2.7% nationally now. And VA is looking promising, up by 6%, 3% in two and down by 2% in one. NM and Iowa are in the bag with leads in the double figures now. Ohio just won’t budge. I think VA will go blue before Ohio does. I gave up on FL a while ago.
Now that’s good satire:
http://www.buymyshitpile.com/
And yes dovif, apparently Obama is black – and a Muslim too!
I just sold the ghost of Herbert Hoover for $10 million.
Adam
Paulson says he’s got $10M for you. Wants to know if you’ll take a cheque though…
Having demonstrated Obama is a “left phoney” on no support for universal healthcare , no support for ratifying Kyoto , no support for traditional Keynes type Labor type economic models , and picks a gung ho pro Iraq to win pollie as VP in Biden…
I notice with mirth a poster trying to convince a friend of his to support Obama BUT NOT ON these ‘left’ policys
but instead on 2nd tier ones !!!…abortion & guns (probably also on death penalty)
Obviously our poster no zero about Obama’s policys about abortion , guns , & death penalty either !….seeing I can demonstrate Obama is a ‘left’ phony on these 3 issues also….so he even fails all th “politcal correctness” policy tests as well.. th ultimate phony’s phony
Rusted on Obama supporters hav no idea what he stands for….intellegentsia elitist eggheads ar worse than Howard supporters , at least they thought they knew what he stood for
Ron, all you’ve demonstrated is that you’re a sore loser
Thank goodness Hillary didn’t want to be Obama’s running mate! Now we don’t have to put up with any more bleatings from embittered Hillary supporters who cling to their political beliefs. Bill tells us this on The View, which is about the most insightful interview show on at the moment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dns6oX4p98
Dovif @ 286,
Unfortunately, there is a component of the electorate over in the US who will base their decision along those lines. Fortunately, I believe [imho not quoting stats here] that the majority of that subgroup are people who wouldn’t have voted for the Democrat anyways [read = "are Republicans"] so I don’t think it will have a noticeable impact come Election Day.
From the USAToday –
“But the survey also makes clear that blacks and whites see the presidential campaign through different prisms.
Seven in 10 blacks expect Obama to win in November. Among the 13% who predict Republican John McCain will prevail, racism is the reason most often cited. The 50% of whites who expect McCain to win are most likely to cite the candidates’ levels of experience as the reason. Only 5% of whites who say McCain will win call racism the key factor.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-22-race-poll_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
juliem
How do you define racism? If it’s that people vote based on race, we can’t really complain. Obama is going to do better as a result of racism than McCain is. About 90% of “blacks” will vote for Obama.
90% of a small number can be much smaller than 20% of a big number.
Personally, I define it as a negative thing. That is just me though. Racist in terms of voting in the elections I would say is “voting against someone else based soley upon the color of their skin or some other reason. You either vote for cand. A because you like him, vote for cand. B because you like him, vote against cand. A/for cand. B for whatever reason or vote against cand. B/for cand. A for whatever reason. So your vote is either for one or another or against one or another. I’m saying (and again my own personal decision here) that the latter two are racist in terms of the election because you are saying that if not for “whatever reason it was” you would otherwise have voted for the other candidate. Someone else who defines “racist” more broadly would say that blacks who would vote for Obama are being racist, but I don’t define the word that broadly. htth
If Obama loses it will not be because he is black. It will be because he is, to quote Christopher Hitchens, “VAPID, HESITANT, AND GUTLESS.”
The Bail Out has certainly gotten everyone’s attention. This story posted earlier today
already has 5,732 comments!
“Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/dirty-secret-of-the-bailo_n_128294.html
The US public are going to get very very angry soon-
Fury at $2.5bn bonus for Lehman’s New York staff
Up to 10,000 staff at the New York office of the bankrupt investment bank Lehman Brothers will share a bonus pool set aside for them that is worth $2.5bn (£1.4bn), Barclays Bank, which is buying the business, confirmed last night.
ALSO
Many of Lehman’s UK staff are particularly angry about the US payouts because it has emerged that in the days running up to the bankruptcy, some $8bn in cash was transferred out of the account of the bank’s European business into accounts at the New York head office.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/fury-at-25bn-bonus-for-lehmans-new-york-staff-937560.html
The Washington Post is keeping tabs on how long John McCain and Sarah Palin are maintaining their “media blackout,” and the days are starting to pile up:
As of this writing, it has been 39 days and 22 hours since Sen. John McCain last held a news conference (despite having promised to hold weekly Q&A sessions with the press if he’s elected). According to the Democrats, it’s been 24 days and 11 hours since his running mate, Sarah Palin, held one.
You would think this economic melt down should make for an easy Democratic victory as none of it is good for McCain and much of it directly against him…thus:
“Senator John McCain’s campaign manager was paid more than $30,000 a month for five years as president of an advocacy group set up by the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to defend them against stricter regulations, current and former officials say.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/us/politics/22mccain.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=politics&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1222162177-iAKFc53jd2dormvao/xv+g
Apparently there is a new dispute emerging between Russia and America, this time is over the use of the old Soviet name USSR.
Russia wants to use it again to signal to the World of its new power with the inclusion many areas that are returning to mother Russia, such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia of Georgia; and Crimea of Ukraine.
Whereas America wants to use to signal to the World of its new pathetic economic status, fully supporting by Wall St Investment Bankers, as United States Socialist Republic.
This all ought indeed to be fatally damaging to any Republican presidential candidate. Hillary Clinton or any other credible Democrat candidate would be 20% ahead by now. In fact Obama is only marginally ahead, and is only 2% up in PA, a state he cannot afford to lose. He is behind in OH, FL and VA, states he ought to be carrying in a canter. The fact is that the American people don’t want to elect Obama as President, and if they do so, it will only be because the Bush Administration has damaged the Republican brand so badly that even McCain can’t overcome his negative legacy.
Rubbish. She’d have the dirty laundry aired and the rabid Republicans out in force.
SNIP: Comment about other commenter deleted. Talk about politics, please – The Management.
Adam,
I believe it is more the electors are hesitant about Obama simply because they don’t know anything about him. This election is ripe for an all mighty scare campaign at the end. “Obama will confiscate your house!” “Obama doesn’t believe in the American Dream” etc.
That stuff McCain produced in his Convention accepting Speech is the sort of stuff that will resonate with the Americans. You know, fight for your country etc. It is corny but very effective.
That said, this election is far too close to call.
I agree that Hillary would be miles in front. Sadly, not to be this time round.
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
Has anyone got any links to polling in previous elections? Specifically state polling?
I had a squiz at the 04 count on electoral vote and saw that Kerry was ahead (!) at this stage according to that site. I find that fascinating cos he was rarely ahead in the national polling (that i’ve found).
Dario , all you’ve demonstrated is that you’re a sore supporter
SNIP: Whinge about moderation deleted. Move on, please – The Management.
GG
my #291 was based on intellectual facts of Obama’s extremist abortion , guns & death penalty policys which is embarassing to “politcally correct” peoples , as it exposes th shallowness of th whole elitist “politcally correct” movement
I’m not bagging Hillary Ron. You need to wake up to yourself.
Ron,
Your facts are irrefutable as always. However, not everyone is doing the careful analysis that you do, before they cast their votes. The reality is, despite his character failings, Obama is poised to win the election.
Whether you or I agree with that possibility is neither here nor there in the end.
The reality is, both candidates have failings as they always do. To think only one candidate does is why Ron makes such a fool of himself.
Yes GG , Pity people like Dario ar incapable of doing intellectual research , thats why they ar a lite weight intellectually & make a fools of themselves
Poor Ron. Deluded to the last with his mouth full of sour grapes.
I’m yet see this careful analaysis to which GG refers.
I also fail to see how Obama’s position and particularly his legislative record on abortion or gun control could be considered extremist. Unless you are Sarah Palin in disguise and for you he’s exterme in the other direction. Please enlighten me (with references).
While I don’t personally agree with Obama’s position on the death penaty, it could hardly be considered extreme, particularly in the American context.
But that’s the thing – you don’t have to agree with the candidate on every single issue in order to vote for them. In fact, it would be immensely strange if you did agree with everything they said.
What I really can’t stand are Hilary supporters who have been, and remain so viciously bitter that they would happily sentence America to (at least) 4 years of a Republican so indistinguishable from Bush – the man who did more damage to America than Nixon could have done in 12 terms.
GG
I have an awful lot of trouble refuting Ron’s facts. He is right on the human rights issues to a large extent, although I wouldn’t characterise any of Obama’s views as “extremist” and I’m really struggling to find any difference between him and Hillary on any of them.
Amnesty did a comparison of Obama and McCain’s views on human rights. There wasn’t that much difference, except for abortion where Obama is a standard Dem and McCain a standard Repug.
That’s because there it’s clouded by sour grapes as usual
Yup
GG at 308: “I believe it is more the electors are hesitant about Obama simply because they don’t know anything about him.”
Well indeed. That’s what happens when you nominate a candidate of whom no-one outside Chicago had heard only six years ago, and whose legislative achievements are zero. We’re talking about an election for the most powerful executive position on earth here, and the Dems have put up a candidate with no qualifications at all to hold that position, other than a glib tongue, and about whom the voters know very little. The ONLY thing Obama has going for him is the label “Democrat,” and that might be enough, in the circumstances of this year, to get him up. But it might very well not be, and that will be nobody’s fault but the liberal Dem activists who dominated the early caucuses and who started the Obama hysteria, and their friends in the liberal media.
TP 301
Its not only US taxpayes who are angry over the crisis and proposed solutions. Paulson is coping a lot of criticism, even from former economic advisors to Reagan. See this summary
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/23skeptics.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
One of the main complaints is that there are still very few details of what the $700 billion rescue package is going to rescue, how it was calculated, and what the beneficiaries (banksand traders) have to pay in return. THis is far from a done deal.
Diogenes
Do you have a link to the Amnesty comparison? The Amnesty membership was very recently extremely divided over abortion rights etc (an awful lot of Christians in Amnesty) so I’m surprised that abortion would feature in something of this kind.
Socrates
I’m not surprised the economically liberal are criticising Paulson. They bloody well should be. An economist friend of mine (and a Keynesian no less) nearlly fainted dead away when he heard about this.
But of course I’m sure the Bush administration knows best. The government bailing out banks’ bad debts worked so well for Indonesia in 1997 after all.
I’m in the mood for some comment choppin’, so no more quarrelling please.
Quarrelling? Us?
Them, Adam.
Them?
GG
#315
I agree with your evaluation , quite measured & precise & he is a fluke beneficiary of th ‘its time’ syndrome’ following a foolish POTUS , wearing a Democrat cloths despite being non ‘left’ on key issues and th fluke timimg of a financial meltdown
Fluke because voters will pay out big time on Republicans in HoR & Senate electons…and STILL ar regsitering only a minor margin to phoney Obama
It is THESE 3 facts that galls rusted on obama supporters
……a possible Obama win in spite of Obama , 7 of his policys I’ve junked today , pretty empty endorsement
Ron and GG
Don’t disagree that there is some pretty impressive aid for Obama in the ‘historical trajectory’.
However, i think you are not giving enough credit to Obama’s organisation or ‘machine’ to use the cliche. I think this will result in a massive turnout for the democrats, of the kind that hasn’t been seen for some time.
With this in mind, i think this will show up only on election day and Obama will win a lot easier than most here suspect.
I have read every single post on this thread today, and at risk of overstepping the bounds, I cannot see how Ron has “junked” any of Obama’s policies.
Calling something “phony” does not equate to “junking” it.
Read todays posts only , thats inadequate intellectual research ecept for kids
First 4 phoney ‘left’ policys I’ve demonstrated for months and you’ve said zero , want to rebut them go ahead
Last three , your precous “politcally corect’ ones he’s trashed tell me what his policys ar …from his own mouth , not from his disengenuous geek web site designed for rusted on to repeat that nonsense
I don’t know why I’m bothering but you said:
“…7 of his policys I’ve junked today…”
Hence why only reading today’s posts to find evidence of you “junking” said policies would in fact equate to adequate “intellectual research”.
As for your claim to have junked 7 of Obama’s polciies today, you have most certainly done so such thing.
Further, for your information, I have been visiting this site for a very short and as such have not had the pleasure of reading your previous posts. Do me a favour and explain how you have “junked” Obama’s policies so convincingly.
“Last three , your precous “politcally corect’ ones he’s trashed tell me what his policys ar…”
In today’s posts you have described Obama’s policies on abortion, gun control and the death penalty as both “phony” and “extremist.” You have not once articulated what these policies are, or why you feel they could be fairly described as above. And now you are asking me to tell you what these policies are. Again, its reasonably safe to argue that you’ve failed to “junk” anything.
I will not be responding to your posts again until you are able to construct an actual argument that goes beyond personal attacks and conservative buzzwords. I am afraid to engage you until you are able to do so may end up being regarded as “playing the man, not the ball.”
However, I will not be sitting idly by while my personal integrity and intelligence into question.
Have a lovely evening.
Grant @ 324
I read it in the newsletter they send me. They didn’t necessarily say they preferred Obama’s position, they just commented that this was one major area of difference. They were very soft on McCains very insipid stances on torture and rendition which surprised me. McCain and Obama both wanted Gitmo closed but there were no timelines. Obama is pro-death penalty, although 2/3 of US states basically don’t believe in it.
” I have been visiting this site for a very short time and as such have not had the pleasure of reading your previous posts”
Then thats no excuse for not checking what people say & support , before foolishly jumping in with unsubstantiated claims Challenge is there on first 4 policys , rebut them…your problem & Obama suppoerters problem is is that they ar factual
As for th precious politcally correct” ones , some he never held if you’d checked instead of wrongly jumping in with your blind partisans supports , whilst others he junked immediately after winning Nomineeship..and liberal Press then tore strips off him for tricking them And its not just death penaly abortion & guns politcally corect policys he’s junked either
What you’ve got is a right of centre candidate , black liberal intellegentsia elitist (elitist love that) , non core ‘left’ policys ….BUT a non Republican & abit more moderate than Mcain on some policys
For some here thats enough and thats fine by me But for some here th gilligans rusted on dedazzled by oratory falsely believing he is th ‘left’ man of change such delusion is intellectual bankrupotcy in defiance of what his policys stand for from his mouth Then others here play a disengenous game
The new Nigerian money-raising scam letter (Hint: it’s from Washington DC)
Dear American:
I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.
I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you. I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transaction is 100% safe.
This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.
Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.
Yours Faithfully,
Minister of Treasury Paulson
The media is a bit unimpressed with McCain-Palin at the moment. They are only allowed to photograph Palin but they can’t talk to her. This race is just getting silly now.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/23/networks-revolt-against-r_n_128608.html
Juliem
Thanks for a great laugh. Of course those who know of Gram and Paulson know that the laugh could soon be on the US taxpayer. This is why the democrats should go after McCain hard on his links to Gram. Paulson’s proposals are proof of the problem. McCain can’t criticise the bailout and keep Gram as his economics advisor.
I can’t help wondering if, to use the spin of the treasury looters, Main Street shouldn’t just call Wall Street’s bluff. Who knows if the world’s finances will really collapse without the bailout? A few might collapse, but maybe thats not so bad. Some people will go to jail, and probably should. But will banking as we know it stop? Or just Wall Street banking? Our banks will soon get capital from China if they have to. If its really as bad as claims, and the survival of the istitutions is at stake, why won’t they release the details of their position (debts etc)? I smell a rat.
New polls:
Obama leads in Colorado, 51%, to 45% for McCain
The West could be fertile ground for Obama, in Colorado/New Mexico/Nevada – because of the Hispanic vote!
Also:
The Democrats are now ahead in the North Carolina senate race, Elizabeth Dole is in danger of getting tossed out!
And, the Democrat candidate even has a shot of winning the senatorial contest in Kentucky, believe it or not!
socrates
The bailout is in all kinds of trouble.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/economy/24fannie.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1222214762-w74Zfx9k6KjCh+qwGMgyNg
Its not only Hispanics that will vote for Obama in the mid-west and west. The sub prime crisis has been devastating in formerly fast growing cities like Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix.
Diogenes
Yes and rightly so. The suggestion that such sweeping powers should be placed in the hands of one man (Paulson) with obvious past ties to some of the guilty parties (he was an investment banker) is very questionable. The NY Times editorial is quite caustic too.
They should just stop covering her at all unless they allow access. McCain would be behind by 10 without Palin’s picture popping up everywhere.
With just over 40 days to go its looking to me to be a similiar close contest that was between Carter and Ford in 1976. However this time the Republican candidate John McCain will prevail over his Democrat rival. The US economy is shaky and Heartland America is looking for an experienced man at the helm to rebuild confidence and a sense of security. Heartland America as opposed to the trendy Liberal elites on the East and West coasts are also prepared to stand the course in Iraq and have a hardline view of Iranian intention and now with Russia flexing its muscles they want a Commander in Chief that knows how to project American power in a holistic approach that protects their homeland.
lol, which Republican blog did you cut & paste that from Paul?
I just wrote it myself but if its similar to Republican messages thats fine because it makes perfect sense.
With just over 40 days to go its looking to a close contest. However this time the Republican candidate John McCain is suffering a severe credibility crisis with his running mate Sarah Palin looking increasingly shallow. The US economy is shaky and Heartland America is looking for a man at the helm to rebuild confidence and a sense of security by removing the old system of unregulated greed that has grown up under a Republican administration. Heartland America as opposed to the systemic greed and corruption that has bought the financial system to its knees and, exhausted over the never ending presence in Iraq, desperate for a candidate that would wind up this operation and bring systemic moral change to Wall street. The Iranian and Russia issues require new thinking and a change from the old approach of unthinking aggression and threat. Americans want a Commander in Chief that is willing to first solve problems without killing our own in senseless unwinable battles and willing to utilise a multi-lateral approach to world problems. More and more the American people are seeing that all their current problems stem from old Republican philosophy. I can dross with the best. Couldn’t find space to put Kevin Rudd in there.
Paul, i think the only problem with what your saying is that all the polling suggests that
a) the economy is the biggest issue;
b) the majority blame the republicans for the mess; and
c) the majority of those polled say they trust the dems to fix it more than they do the repubs.
Reading some republican spin, I can’t help being reminded of the rambling of elderly former Queensland premier Joh Bjelke Petersen.
Joh: “You mark my lambs… just you wait and see…. never you mind about that”
Paul Nash: “Heartland America is looking for an experienced man at the helm to rebuild confidence and a sense of security… prepared to stand the course…that protects their homeland”.
McCain: “”The issue of economics is something that I’ve really never understood as well as I should. I understand the basics, the fundamentals, the vision, all that kind of stuff.”
Of course, in the end we found Joh was corrupt too.
Never let the facts get in the way of anything eh?
Thomas Paine(Definately not the same man who stood up for American independence against the British Empire in the late 1700’s) your comments ignore the fact that the Democrats have chosen a light weight candidate and all the Liberal talk of how historic the occasion it presents is laughable. The candidate is not a descendant of Slavery in the United States he is a one generation american whose father was from the British colony of East Africa(Kenya). The corruption around his circles in Chicago would make what you’ve stated about Wall Street pale into insignificance. McCain and Palin will win because they can reach out to Heartland America which is tired of such rubbish as man made climate changed as exposed by trendy Liberals like Al Gore. As for Yo ho ho at this point in time I think the Democrats couldn’t run a bath.
340,
If Dole goes in NC, serves her right. She was a blowin in much the same way that Hillary blew into NY from Arkansas. [Not implying here at all that Hillary hasn't represented and will represent people of NY well, just that the possibility exists that it could be the opposite end of the spectrum when you seek elected office in an area that you aren't intimately familiar with]. If Dole loses, watch for her to immediately move back to her roots in Kansas …….
PN
Sadly your argument is based in faith not facts. About 85% of Americans are convinced CC is happening. And it’s a big winner for Obama.
Poll Shows Climate Change an Election Issue
http://www.eponline.com/articles/65440/
Paul, just saying that Obama is a lightweight candidate doesn’t make it true. He beat Clinton for the Democrat candidacy in probably one of the tightest and no-holds-barred races at that level for a long time. Your statement simply bears no relationship to reality.
Diogenes watch out also for the Canadian Election on October 15 , If the Conservative Party wins Harper will wind back all the CC issues initiated by the previous Liberal Government and then in November McCain wins the US all of North America will be a CC free zone and only Europe and little Australia will believe in such clap trap.
Did you folks know that on 23 September 2004, the Intrade markets were only two States out from the actual election results: Wisconsin and New Mexico.
The polls on the other hand….
Paul – are you predicting this with the same certainty that you predicted a Nats win in Lyne?
I’m interested to see what happens if Harper and Obama win. With Canada a ‘CC free zone’ but America not, it’ll make for some very interesting weather around Michigan, Minnesota etc…
And Socrates 350 Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen would have made a fine Prime-Minister had not all the Australian establishment brick walls prevented him in such a real corrupt fashion. Afterall had it happened we would like the UK, USA and Canada had a real Conservative party in charge.
heh!
Ok, now it’s clear you’re just a troll
Paul Nash
“he corruption around his circles in Chicago would make what you’ve stated about Wall Street pale into insignificance”
Presume you ar not referring to
William Ayers th worst terrorist in US history (on FBI top 10 list for 10 years) who Obama first went to to start his career & worked under Ayers in Ayers foundation
Rezko convicted on Federal corruption charges of illinois public officials direcly under th Governor (Obama’s 17 year mate , who Obama worked for Rezko who for 10 years raised money for Obama & headed Obama’ committeee
Nadmi Auchi – Iraqi Billionaire swindler who helped himself to money from the Food for Oil program and coneection to Obama’s Chicago mansion.
Or other associates
Rashid Khalidi former PLO spokesman and supporter of terrorism against Israel.
Jeremiah Wright whaco anti American preacher
James Meeks a rabid racist,& anti-American preacher
Louis Farrakhan of th Nation of Islam. a renowned racist, anti-American, voracious Anti-Semite and homophobe
Which of these individuals are the ‘clean’ ones?
Any facts and figures Paul to back up your statements? Any at all?
Roflol! This is getting like FoxNooz: The O’Ronnly Factor – where silliness is no obstacle to discussion.
Ron
You really have excelled yourself.
And I thought it was Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols. I must have missed all those 168+ people Ayers blew up.
Possum fox news is the only fair and balanced media compared with the established Liberal media accross the USA.
pedantic , one of worst terorists in US history
th “O’Possum Factor” where elitist intellegentsia is a substitute for denying reality
The Latino vote, which is up to 10% is favouring Obama 2:1. A big help in CO, NV and NM.
Latino vote emerges as swing vote in Colorado
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/23/king.battleground.colorado/index.html?eref=rss_politics&iref=polticker
Data is reality Ron
Data can be reality have you checked the latest Rasmussen poll in the states it clearly shows that McCain is ahead in two key battleground states Ohio and Florida.
And they both have big electoral college votes I think in 1976 Carter took Florida which helped him overcome Ford its looking deciding different this time around. The only similiarity is stagflation and high oil prices thats the 70s flavour. And we all know interesting times happened in the 70s don’t we possum ah la 1975
PN
What is your opinion of the accuracy of the different US polls? Which ones do you think are the most reliable and have the best past prediction records? Why don’t you educate Poss and the rest of us so we can learn from your experience.
Reality is that every measure has Obama winning. He’s winning the national polls, intrade, every betting market, electoral-vote, pollster, 538 and electionprojection.
Paul – I see every poll, everyday
The latest OH poll is an Insider Advantage poll showing a 46 a piece tie while the latest Ras has McCain by 4, while the latest FL poll is an NBC News/Mason-Dixon jobbie reading 47/45 to Obama with the latest Ras having McCain by 5.
And that pretty much shows the mess that US polling is at the moment.
Intrade has the best record – having only 2 states wrong as a prediction on 23rd Sep 2004. If you want to see the Intrade road to the Whitehouse for each candidate it’s here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/09/24/us-election-–-the-intrade-road-to-the-whitehouse/
The election is still Obama’s to lose – by a fair margin.
371,
Matters not, mate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
He doesn’t need Ohio and Florida to win
Oops – that link went blech.
This works:
http://tinyurl.com/3qrz5q
PN
You refer to “elitist liberals” and the need for “true conservatives”. I suppose the latter are much easier to find than truthful conservatives.
Still, what do you mean to be “elitist”? Do you mean elite as in intellect and achievement, or as in wealth and power? So is Richard Dawkins an elite? or George Bush?
Indeed, what do you mean by liberals and conservatives? You are obviously an expert in US history so please inform me which of the following famous American political figures were true conservatives and which were elitist liberals? Which ones called themselves liberals?
Thomas Paine
Thomas Jefferson
John Adams
James Maddison
Benjamin Franklin
Abraham Lincoln
Hope you can enlighten an old philosopher who barely knows what he doesn’t know.
Thanks Poss, very nice intrade analysis. Have you looked much at the volatility of Intrade in elections past? Just wondering whether the conventions or debates historically provide much movement…
Thanks Poss, I found that Intrade link much more reliable than PN’s advice. Appreciate teh info on their reliability too. Curious the only US poll he could name was one which showed MccCain in front.
Seriously, from here the US either sorts out their economic problems at the expense of $800 Billion of taxpayers money, or goes into recession, or both. Most of this was due to problems the Republicans failed to stop, and actually withdrew resources from the relevant regulators. I don’t see how they can win in Novemer in any of those cases.
Dario – the conventions sent the Intrade markets a bit berko last year as well, but after a couple of weeks it was back to business as usual (which looks like what is happening this year). The debates didnt really do much – a few days worth of movement in a few states, but then back to the longer term trends that each state was showing before the debates. If this year is like 2004, as we approach the election, some of those 60% probabilities will start to move into 70, then the 80% – which really takes them completely out of the game.
Yeah, I figured the conventions would be the more likely to shake things up… if their debates are anything like ours then they are more likely to put everyone to sleep than change votes or perceptions about the state of play.
Dario
The movement after the conventions is very predictable and happened almost exactly as expected. It has now ended. It’s harder to be definitive about the debates, because some will say X won and others will say Y won (whereas the party holding the convention obviously wins it’s own “debate”). From what I’ve read, the debates actually NEVER change anything (except maybe when JFK beat Nixon). Everyone knows the Democrat candidate will be more intelligent and articulate, whereas the Republican will make simplistic appeals to character and patriotism.
Socrates Liberals are those that believe in the writings of John Stuart Mill and Conservatives the writings of Edmund Burke. In relation to the United States its somewhat blurred particularly in its first 100 years of Nationhood. The first two political parties were the Federalists basically formed in the Northern States of the Original 13 and the Democratic-Republican Party of the South luckily for the US both of these parties were Conservative with differences in the scope of how big the Federal Government should be. Later on the Federalists disappeared following the War of 1812 and America had a very stable period except in the 1840s when they flirted with the Whigs(a Pure Liberal Party) like the Whigs in the UK. The Republican Party formed prior to the Civil War due to a split in the Democratic-Republican Party over slavery then it just became the Democratic Party. I know the US was lucky that parties were conservative with the later being controlled by white southern Democrats.
Following Johnsons civil rights bills southern states drifted to the Republican Party and Democrats gained Republican stronghold states in the North and as a result became Liberal.
New ABC/Washington Post poll – Obama/McCain 52/43
Ouch!
Whoah!!!
Surprise Surprise a poll conducted jointly with a newspaper that started the second biggest witchhunt in world history.
The Salem witch trials?
Paul
thanks for the history lesson but you still avoided my key questions: why do you call liberals elitist? Why do you denigrate a doctrine that was espoused by most of the great figures in US politicla history that you claim to the conservative cause, even though they were anything but conservatives, and would reject the title. They were revolutionaries, and saw themselves as such.
Conservatives can no more claim Paine, Jefferson, Adams, Maddison and Lincoln as their own than socialists can claim Milton Friedman. You guys have really put the “con” back into conservative. Its an indictment of the ignorance of the majority that this rubbish goes unchallenged so often. Even Burke would turn in his grave at some neo-con policies. He was deeply opposed to slavery and torture for one thing. I wonder what he would think of “conservatives” who legalised torture?
Witch-hunts are still pretty popular in Africa, especially Kenya. Contrary to popular belief, “witches” are/were almost always elderly females (or males) living in social isolation and poverty with a mental illness at the time of crop failure.
Villagers lynch seven ‘witches’: police
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=68&art_id=nw20080618091808715C634465
Link for the new poll -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid=topnews
O’Possum Factor
Selectively ignoring data is th intellegentsia elitist way
Pretending Rezko does not exist is blinded objectivity & just as bad as Bill O’Reilly , so yous just read with closed minds
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=4&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Socrates you ignore the historical facts during the revolutionary war in America the leading conservative thinker in the United Kingdom Edmund Burke supported the American viewpoint. The American Revolution was a right wing conservative one that keeped the idea of an eighteenth century Monarchical system into its republican form of government. Unlike the left wing revolution in France 1789 and Russia 1917 that distroyed societies equilibrium. All those great men you mention are from my viewpoint true conservative who believed in at least keeping a balance of the status quo.
Ron, you’ve argued with so many people over so much nonsense, you can’t even remember who you were yelling at over which issue.
I couldn’t give a toss about Rezko, and never have.
You might want to focus.
Paul Nash
“All those great men you mention are from my viewpoint true conservative who believed in at least keeping a balance of the status quo.”
I think the key words here are “from my viewpoint”. They were trying to preserve ideals and principles, not institutions. Too many conservatives lately try to do the opposite. Either way, they saw themselves as liberals. Read Jefferson if you don’t believe me. Its a little difficult for conservatives to claim that US revolution figures acted in the name of a Conservatism that wasn’t defined by Burke till 20 years later, don’t you think? Hence my point, its rewritting history to claim these figures as conservatives. they were liberals, and said so. You might recall these words by Jefferson:
“We hold these truths to be sacred & undeniable; that all men are created equal & independent, that from that equal creation they derive rights inherent & inalienable, among which are the preservation of life, & liberty, & the pursuit of happiness; that to secure these ends, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed; that whenever any form of government shall become destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, & to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles & organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety & happiness.”
Sounds like a liberal to me.
Paul
Further to the above, I note this comment of yours:
“All those great men you mention are from my viewpoint true conservative who believed in at least keeping a balance of the status quo.”
Rubbish. These people were willing to start wars and die for their beliefs. Here is Jefferson commenting on Shay’s rebellion:
“”What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must from time to time be refreshed with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.”
And here is his view on corporations:
“”I hope we shall crush … in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations, which dare already to challenge our government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country”
Doesn’t sound very conservative, does he?
O’Possum Factor
so when you always say you follow th “data” , but yet when confronted with this Rezko ‘data’ in 3393 you choose to selectively NOT follow th ‘data’
Very unobjective , and thats th problem with th rusted on Obama supporters blind selective faith
That ABC poll had 1,092 sample
Eighty percent said they are concerned about the overall direction of the economy, nearly three-quarters worry about the shocks to the stock market, and six in 10 are apprehensive about their own family finances, the newspaper said.
Half of the respondents called the economy and jobs the single most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-us-usa-politics-poll-economy2.html
Yikes
Paul at 352 – just havin fun and seems your adding to it.
Socrates
“why do you call liberals elitist?”
I’ll answer that , but my stance varys somewhat in degree from Paul Nash’s
Obama talking about millions of working familys in Pennsyvania & other mid west towns
And he is talking ABOUT them behind there back 3,000 kilometres away to affluent fund raisers in San Francisco on 5/4/08 , and reported in ALL credible US media:
“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
ONLY an elitist would regard those words as completely non elitist , whatever there context
There ar in my view “elitist liberals” , and some “non elitist liberals” Obama is a “elitist Liberal ” and above demonstrates
I don’t mind non elitist suporting Obama despite this be they non eleitist “liberals” or otherwise , but I do question objectivity of those who deny flatly deny or ignore Obama is a “elitist liberal” & support him
Ron, Rezko is only data in your own twisted mind. He’s just a typical grubby political cling-on of the type that infests every political system. That’s politics, especially in the US where the money/politics nexus is so obscene.
Like most of these googled facts of yours, there ain’t a great lot of gravitas to them.
We know you think Obama is (choose as many as necessary) terrorist sympathiser, weatherman double agent, corrupt financial broker, election manipulator, alien, satan and puppy eater.
But the way you carry on – it’s ridiculous.
Ron
Its the cheap generalising ad hominen attacks I object to, as well as the other points in my posts to JN. They (extreme right wing conservatives) use “elitist liberal” or “leftist liberal” as a standard descriptor and form of attack. I don’t think its reasonable. Some liberals are elitist, but many are not. I sometimes wonder if its just a resentful backlash against educated liberals from those who did less well in their own education. Even so, I don’t assume all conservatives are dumber than George W Bush and would appreciate a similar lack of branding in return. Edmund Burke was one of my favourite political philosophers.
Also I am not an Obama fan anyway, but given what has happened under the incumbent republican adminstration over the past 8 years, I’d like to see a little more balance and honesty coming from conservatives. If I can admit that NSW Labor is an embarrassment, then its time they did the same with their republican failures. There are some conservatives I respect thes days, but not as many as I’d like.
Possum
You are wrong about Rezko. There’s plenty of data about it like how important it is to American voters. Outside of the Faux News room and Rush Limbaugh’s studio, the percentage of US voters who think Rezko is a significant issue in the election is pretty steady. The sample of registered voters was about 100 million and here are the results;
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Can you work out the MOE on that? I make it out to be zero, but I’m not an expert.
I can’t seem to find the link for that data. I’ll post it later. It’s in my Heiner Affair folder.
lol Dio! Love it
I don’t understand why liberal elitism is a bad word. I strive to be the best at whatever I’m doing, I’m certainly liberal – slightly to the libertarian end of the spectrum rather than the left liberal end and to anyone that reckons that’s a nasty thing – you can chew on my furry bits.
The last thing this country needs is another dose of superficial f**ktardery that tries to denegrate either achievement or a belief that the governments fist should stop where my nose starts.
(I’ll get off the soapbox – who’s turn next?)
I’m happy to get on that soapbox now, Possum. All this “liberal, “elitist” and “intelligentsia” crap really is funny. It panders to the herd of the population who are embittered by their poor education and lack of intellectual faculties. To think that being (a) more intelligent and (b) better educated is a bad thing beggars belief.
Brand new ABC News/Washington Post Poll
OBAMA 52
MCFAKE 43
9 points – is this the biggest poll lead Obama has had in a while?
O’Possum Factor
#403
Rezko is data in your own twisted mind that IS reported in th “New York Times” from an journalistic NYT investigative team …which has far more credibility than you sitting in Queensland knowing little if anything about th subject
But the way you carried on in response to this credible NYT data is ridiculous & feline to any reasonable poster , you having made an unsubstantiated Rezko comment only to look foolish & uncredible when viewed against th NYT info
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Evan, neither Kerry (04) nor Gore (00) had any polls before Election Day where their Democratic numbers started with 5* …….. That in itself should be your first clue that we are heading in the right direction
……
Possum, any room up on the perch at your end of the political spectrum? I’ll take a seat up there, please, with you, we can perch together
True Poss; perhaps it is the anti-intellectual bit in conservatism I dislike the most. I suppose its the part of me that regrets the loss of Australia’s dead spirit of egalitarianism that reacts most to such comments.
Ron I think you just described yourself
Socrates
$404
After you’ve read #403 , perhaps you wish not to further reply without being tainted
In response to your #404 actual post , there is nothing at all in it I disagree with inclufding re NSW Labor
Regarding Obama’s 5/4/08 San Francisco speech that I quoted from in #402 , I’d re post my view that ONLY an elitist would regard those Obama’s words as completely non elitist , whatever there context Not sure if you concur , (notwithstanding my later comment that support or non support for Obama should not rest on that alone anyway)
I’m not denying that Rezko existed or that he tried to worm his way into a sphere of influence with politicians Ron!
The difference here is that I’m neither surpised nor concerned because that exact thing happens everyday, in every political system, but particularly in the US because of the nature that fundraising plays – whereas it is making you have kittens because you seem to really,really want to believe that Obama is the antichrist.
You have no nuance Ron, no subtlety, no grasp of context – it’s just headline hysteria and to be honest it’s not only really bloody annoying but makes any mildly complex political discussion almost impossible.
juliem – it’s a big tree, take a seat you child eating liberal elitist you!
Poss and juliem I might have to ask for a branch on that tree too after all. Perhaps we can get a good view of the republican defeat in November that seems likely now.
Upon reflection, the whole Obama vs McCain thing is a little unfortuante. it isn’t just them that are being elected, but a whole army of respective republican hangers-on or democrat hangers-on. After Bush it is quite simple, the republican hangers-on have to go IMO. Any republican successor will never be allowed to remove the incompetents and preosecute the guilty to the extent needed. So I definitely hope Obama wins.
That’s spot on Socrates – at any election with a major party system, you aren’t really electing an individual, you’re electing a party with all the baggage that party carries with it *first and foremost*.
Oh – and have a seat, mind the knots – they can be awkward
Rudd and Murdoch were just on the news (not together) saying the bailout should go ahead. Murdoch said something that I’m getting really fed up with. The line the neocons are using is “In principle I don’t like it but I think we should bailout the banks.” So these guys principles aren’t really worth very much. I haven’t heard a single one say “Our principle is not to bail out so we shouldn’t bail out.”
And the FBI is investigating Fannie May, Freddie Mac, Lehman’s and AIG.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080924/D93CP7MG0.html
Au Contraire Dio – their principles are worth quite a bit.
About $700 billion as a round figure
McCain caught lying yet again. Has this man a single shred of decency left? He’s been lying about the relationship between Freddie Mac and his campaign manager. He denied vehemently that there was one since 2005. Now it turns out that a company owned by Rick Davis has been receiving $15,000 a month from Freddie since 2005 until one month ago. That should go down well in the debate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/23/freddie-mac-paid-mccain-c_n_128770.html
Speaking of the upcoming debate
…..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matt-littman/friday-nights-debate-how_b_128407.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/erin-kotecki-vest/dear-senator-mccain-why-n_b_128799.html
Reading the following, I am glad that both Republicans and Democrats are standing up to this rubbish ….. The US has 3 separate branches of government for a #*$&#($*&#($&#( reason, checks and balances ….. How stupid does Bush think the American public is? If they need the bailout that badly, they need to get with the program and accept reasonable safeguards …..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/dirty-secret-of-the-bailo_n_128294.html
Possum and Socrates, ….. the only election [outside of Kevin07] that I have ever been able to get happy and excited about was Clinton’s first election in 1992. I was sitting on the couch that evening watching election returns and had two men sitting on either side of me. I voted for Clinton. On my left was the Bush voter. On my right was the independant voter for Ross Perot. It was absolutely sweet that night as the states came in more and more blue, I was smiling from ear to ear and both men had sour faces.
417,
Socrates (and Possum),
I STRONGLY suggest the following book if you haven’t already heard about it. Title -Obama’s Challenge – America’s Economic Crisis and the Power of a Transformative Presidency by Robert Kuttner. Publishing date of September 2008 although it mentions the Freddie and Fannie bailouts so it is REALLY recent and up to date. I purchased it through Amazon.com in the USA. Including shipping, it costs between $18 to $25 Aussie. Rough guess pending the current exchange rates as opposed to when I purchased it. Once you order it, it takes about 2 1/2 weeks or so to get here. I’ll quote one reviewers comments from the back cover – “Kuttner pulls off the all-but-impossible. He hits the high notes with artful precision, lifting expectations and articulating the steps that can make Barack Obama a great president – while setting forth a strong and highly readable call for comprehensive and essential economic change.”
http://wingsofjustice.com/08/09/woj08039.html
O’Possum Factor
You have no nuance , no subtlety, no grasp of context regarding Rezko , unrealizing that overt Obama’s ingratiation over a decade with this now convicted corrupt sleeze person questions Obama’s appalling judgement at best , and also appearing to allow this sleeze into backdoor financing his own private home , and his negligent governance over where he get his money at best..even after Rezko was publicly being queried
Fact that in reponse to my New York Times link in #393 detailng Rezko’s shady dealings & long term close financial association with Obama , you so childishly posted your #403 falsely stating it “was Rezko data in my twisted mind” , rather TH ACTUAL TRUTH that its a journalistic investigation Report by th New York Times , demonstrates an willingness to uncredibily ignore facts & data that is adverse on your candidate 9Obama) & feline
I of course always had a secondary source (ABC News below although not as detailed)
Your lack of impartiality & credibility of your #403 post vs New York Times & ABC News is obvious , except to your ‘friends’ here , (especially as I’d already posted th NYK link in #393 beforehand)
Sooner or later objective people will read my info & draw similar conclusions to my first paragraph
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/WireStory?id=4171763&page=1
The republicans might be pulling the other sure-fire election losing tactic – annoying the journalists. Another article in the NY Times points out that Palin is being shielded from the press (to avoid embarrassing slips?). It seems she hasn’t done a singe press conference in several weeks! during a campaign!! Even Dan Quayle got more scrutiny.
Socrates,
Or, they could be giving the finger to the pro-Obama press. Nixon apparently did the same in 1972 and won.
Some of these polls are starting to look rather ominous for McCain. You wonder how he could possibly turn it around now.
No. They have been pretty much giving it to all of them, only allowing photographers to most of her appearances.
Whether shielding Palin is genius or fear, the effect will be the same. A whole White House press corps makes their living reporting on the candidates on campaign, which is now. A lack of access to Palin will make it difficult for them to write about her, and that will annoy them.
That’s right Ron – he’s also a witch. Goody Williams and Mary Warren told me so.
They’ll just stop covering her. I don’t think they will care if all the media do the same.
” Possum
#434
Posted Wednesday, September 24, 2008 at 10:28 pm | Permalink
“That’s right Ron – he’s also a witch. Goody Williams and Mary Warren told me so.”
Possum
#403
“Posted Wednesday, September 24, 2008 at 4:52 pm | Permalink
Ron, Rezko is only data in your own twisted mind. He’s just a typical grubby political cling-on of the type that infests every political system. That’s politics, especially in the US where the money/politics nexus is so obscene.
Like most of these googled facts of yours, there ain’t a great lot of gravitas to them.
We know YOU THINK tObama is (choose as many as necessary) terrorist sympathiser, weatherman double agent, corrupt financial broker, election manipulator, alien, satan and puppy eater.
But the way you carry on – it’s ridiculous.”
RON:
Possum my post #428 answered your comment in COMPARISON to your #403 and now #434 posts , suggest re read it with non Obama slanted views
Possum
#428
“You have no nuance , no subtlety, no grasp of context regarding Rezko , unrealizing that overt Obama’s ingratiation over a decade with this now convicted corrupt sleeze person questions Obama’s appalling judgement at best , and also appearing to allow this sleeze into backdoor financing his own private home , and his negligent governance over where he get his money at best..even after Rezko was publicly being queried
Fact that in reponse to my New York Times link in #393 detailng Rezko’s shady dealings & long term close financial association with Obama , you so childishly posted your #403 falsely stating it “was Rezko data in my twisted mind” , rather TH ACTUAL TRUTH that its a journalistic investigation Report by th New York Times , demonstrates an willingness to uncredibily ignore facts & data that is adverse on your candidate 9Obama) & feline
I of course always had a secondary source (ABC News below although not as detailed)
Your lack of impartiality & credibility of your #403 post vs New York Times & ABC News is obvious , except to your ‘friends’ here , (especially as I’d already posted th NYK link in #393 beforehand)
Sooner or later objective people will read my info & draw similar conclusions to my first paragraph”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/us/politics/14rezko.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/WireStory?id=4171763&page=1
poss
a male witch is a warlock
…..resume combat
Ta gus – but no point. Unarmed opponent.
BTW – you’ve won a Crikey sub for getting the Newspoll contest right. Drop me a mail and we’ll sort out the details.
Cheers Poss
I just dropped you an email
Whereas I’m armed , with my NYT & ABC News facts waiting
Possum
You could have made your comment to Nate a bit more brief! You do know that the first person tey will suspect if Obama gets whacked is the person who tippde everyone off.
For anyone interested in a plot to kill Obama which has been uncovered by Mate and Possum, go to Possums website along with the CIA, FBI and Secret Service. And you all think I’m joking.
PS On second thoughts, wouldn’t it be ASIO who raids you? I can see the headline in the “OO” now.
“Subversive Blogger in Plot to Assassinate Obama”
And that’s the thanks I get for debunking fallacies of poorly understood Intrade data!
What’s the world coming to I ask
“What’s the world coming to I ask ”
people who faced with NYT and ABC News facts demolishing there arguments , trying to salvage credibility by silence
A very good article from Paul Krugman (Princeton economist) on whats wrong with Paulson’s bail out plan here:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/22/opinion/edkrugman.php
Serious doubts are being raised about whether Paulson actually knows how to fix this mess.
Possum: the thanks you get is a name for the TV show you might make one day. “The O’Possum Factor”… c’mon, it’ll be a hoot.
Ron
Rezko is not an issue-if it was obama would be toast by now.Think back to the shite they tried to lay on pjk and who he knew-piggeries anyone
Mccain and palin are the ones who deserve the real scrutiny as i doubt that the US MSM are much different to ours and are shielding their deficiencies and creating “phantom issues” like rezko to taint obama
For good or bad, the Republican strategy is to play Palin below the radar. They are playing straight dog whistle politics, excluding the media and communicating directly with the voters.
Gus
Issue of fitness for office, judgement , governance & character apply seeing this is most powerful position on earth , otherwise nothing pre this year on McCain should logicvally be raised either on his character etc So I think is therefore relevant on those 4 grounds
Both candidates hav attritube problems , and seeing 99% of posters do a job on exposing McCain’s and Palins , my additions ar hardly necessary
But there needs to be balance irrspective of people’s partisan views , and NYT journalistic investigation & ABC News Reports ar credible sources raising those issues , which todate today hav resulted in shooting th messenger (me) who has reported those storys , rather than th issues raised in them
…and that standard today , that was unchallenged by all posters here is remarkable But th NYT journalistic investigation & ABC News Reports still stand as legitimate criticisms of Obama on 4 grounds
Ron – I’ve read the articles and all I see is a grubby operator that tried to surround himself with political power via fundraising, and an obsessed poster trying to prove that it means Obama eats puppies… or something.
If politicians being legally involved with dubious fundraisers is a shooting offence, Rudd should be gone over Burke, Howard gone over the Brethren, Bligh gone over some of the QLD real estate developers, Brumby gone over some quite nasty union chaps and and the entire NSW Labor Party would be forced to walk the plank – the majority of Australia’s politicians end up being involved with such dross at some stage of their careers, because wealthy, opportunistic dross has a habit of trying to hang around power in this country (like it does everywhere else) like it’s some kind of mutated aphrodesiac.
But with Obama, to you it’s all different – why, because you need it to be different because you’re obsessed.
……and quite frankly off with the fairies.
No one gives a shit about Rezko because there’s nothing to it. If there was, it would have moved beyond a Republican talking point memo back in early 2008 to a scandal getting wall to wall coverage.
But it hasnt – the only coverage it’s still receiving is with sad, bitter old PUMA loons and local posters that seemingly need to derail threads with increasingly outrageous claims of Obama misdemeanors. What was it this morning? Oh that’s right – he was best friends or something with the worst American terrorist EVAH!…. or some piffle.
Get over it Ron – Clinton lost. Meds available at your nearest pharmacy.
Obama now up by 2 on Rasmussen
and post #403 would hav only expected from a ‘right’ person , but there you go
Ron
I have expressed before my own concerns with Obama, but what about my post 417? Electing McCain means reelecting a republican administration, with all the baggage that entails. Surely you can’t think that is acceptable after the past 8 years?
Socrates,
McCain is not Bush.
Electing McCain will introduce a new administration.
Just because you are on the edge of a precipice does not mean you will vote to jump.
He’s pretty damn close
Unlikely. Plenty of the current Whitehouse advisors are assisting McCain’s campaign.
Possum
So NOW you’ve finally read th article 6 posts after making unsubstantiated claims in #403 vs reality of a NYT journalistic investigation & ABC News Report
Your credibility as a result on th issue was zero from your #403 post , and now you’ve compounded it by just reading these professional News Reports after th event
Your over partisan support for Obama shines through in every post you make , together with an obsession to personalise to camopflage your own embarassment of jumping in in #403 with a totally false allegation it was my info when TH TRUTH was it was a NYT journalistic investigation & ABC News Report
Issue of fitness for office, judgement , governance & character apply seeing this {OTU position is most powerful position on earth were raised in those Reports and th fact you don’t like them being raised…tough
GG
I disagree. On economics McCain is a sockpuppet with very few ideas of his own. His policy advisors come from the Bush school and so his economic policy would be a rerunn of Bush jnr economic policy. That would be bad for the US and the world, including us.
Dario,
It’s pretty clear you are voting to dive. Make sure you do a pike and twist in case you don’t survive the impact.
Bungee jumping without a rope is what you Obamaphiles are all about!
Actually the persistency of career republican office holders across administrations is proven by Bush’s cabinet. Cheney and Rumsfeld both were in the white house under Reagan. If McCain won, it would be the same again. Does anyone think that if Labor won in Australia but the PM changed from Rudd to Gillard that every staffer would be new and every policy altered? Not likely.
Ron – I, like most people here, read those articles about Rezko when they came out – all those months ago. There wansn’t a lot to them then, there isn’t a lot in them now.
The only thing that has changed in the intervening period is the intensity of your obsession with the evils of Obama.
So GG, if you would vote for “experience” what is the McCain plan to solve the finanicial crisis? Cut taxes so there will be less treasury funds to restart the economy with? Invade Iran? See the Iraq war through to the death of the last innocent civilian? I see no future with him.
Night all.
Socrates,
And the reason is, Dems don’t win government very often.
“Bungee jumping without a rope is what you Obamaphiles are all about!”
Planning a hot-air balloon for yourself GG??
Socrates
452
Posted Thursday, September 25, 2008 at 12:04 am | Permalink
“Ron
I have expressed before my own concerns with Obama, but what about my post 417? ”
Well first part of post could hav been interpreted as a declaration of me “non personna” , given th context of 13 preceding posts
Second part , it is true some ex Republican ‘operatives’ will remain & thats undesirable so agree with that Its also true McCain who detests Bush & his entourage & has argued with Bush publicly , will clean out anty “Bush” loyalists , think thats also a fair call to make
As for McCain himself , i share I think it was Dyno view (perhaps another poster) anyway that think McCain is not a bush …if I thought he was I hav posted here I’d support Obama … a point apparently treated with derison , but repeated again However I can not support any Republican anyway so can not support McCain (and I’ve indicated my non support for Ovbama PURELY on non ‘;eft’ policy grounds …despite false claims to contrary) It appears this site does not allow informal voters on principal grounds , but being th one only does not alter my views
lol GG and you are just an impartial pundit with no axe to grind. Spare me.
Socrates,
The smart thing would be to collect the best and brightest economic minds and tell them to get on with it, now.
Presidents generally set direction and let the animals get on with it.
Dario (450)
Can you tell me what was the previous situation with Rasmussen? I am interested in what kind of a trend this poll is showing.
What’s my axe?
Bernanke speaking on Sky business as we apeak.
speak
List of their previous results here
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
Here’s the last couple of weeks, with today’s listed first:
Obama +2
Even
Obama +1
Obama +1
Obama +1
Even
Even
McCain +1
McCain +1
McCain +2
McCain +3
McCain +3
McCain +3
Thanks Dario. The trend is unmistakable.
A few other polls out showing Obama leads.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
Seems to be a daily occurence now – a slow but steady drift.
Thanks Thomas
Possum
Don’t try and re -write what you wrote to avoid your own foolishness in jumping in unsubstantiated
Your post #403 is clear , you falsely claimed th data was from my twisted mind , despite me posting a link in #393 that it was a New york Times journalistic Report your credibility on objectively addressing substance of th articles went to zero with your #403 post
Instead of addressing what th NYT article said , you proceeded with achildish attack on me in #403 people ar free to re -read your #403
Now after event you read them and make comment on them interwined with feline comment on me in #449 and later posts
And still with over partisan pro Obama slant , th substance of articles of Obama’s lack of judgement , governance etc you ignore as its unpalatable to you …tough
The issue of executive pays will be making most Americans beside themselves with rage. It will go very very bad for the Republicans if they pander to the CEOs. Its personal.
If the package fails to get through it will be the Republicans that pay – as you can bet the American people will be looking for the things in it that Obama and McCain are talking about and not what was put up initially no matter what happens their bad mood will be taken out on Republicans. IMO
“But Wall Street, its lobbyists and trade groups are waging a feverish lobbying campaign to try to fight compensation curbs. Pay restrictions, they say, would sap incentives to hard work and innovation, and hurt the financial sector and the American economy.
“We support the bill, but we are opposed to provisions on executive pay,” said Scott Talbott, senior vice president for government affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable, a trade group. “It is not appropriate for government to be setting the salaries of executives.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/24pay.html?th&emc=th
Ahh a picture tells the story.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/09/24/business/0924-web-PAY.gif
It is if they’re bailing you out with taxpayers money you ungreatful scum! FMD
comments from posters following the article
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/24/mccain_suspending_campaign_ask.html?hpid=topnews
If McCain is not dead and buried by now, there is something serious wrong with Obama.
“It is not appropriate for government to be setting the salaries of executives.”
The real problem is that it isn’t appropriate for executives to be setting their own salaries but effecively that is exactly what happens. See Bebchuck adn Grinstein’s work on the myth of ars-length negotiating with CEOs over salary. The reality is that CEO’s appoint directors from various institutional investors to cosy positions on boards, and then the directors agree to whatever is proposed by the CEO for salary in return. Exec salaries now average 10% of gross profits for most top 500 firms!!! This market is broken and needs regulation.
Besides, its appropriate for governments to set salary levels in lots of situations, such as for every public servant, via awards and wage arbitration hearings, and as in this case, whereever the governmetn provides the cash.
I especially hope they clamp down on executive bonuses. These are now so high that they act as a perverse incentive for the CEOs to take more cowboy risks with what is other people’s money. The fact they have golden parachute clauses too means that, for them its a “heads I win, tails you lose” bet.
Yippppeeeee
” Democratic rival Barack Obama declined to follow suit, saying he would return only if congressional leaders requested his presence and said there was no reason to suspend the campaign or delay Friday night’s presidential debate.
The BEST line of the campaign by far
…… I always knew McCain was a moron, he is just now showing everyone else that he can’t handle multi tasking 
HA HA This desperate move will backfire on McIdiot!
I just saw the video of Obama’s statement: he looked very presidential!
No wonder there was a sudden move in Intrade.
Seems like McCain is giving up. That is the impression.
And, if McShame doesn’t want to debate Obama on Friday, why not send Sarah Palin in his place?
LMFAO
McCai wants to suspend the campaign for long enough to figure out some answers? Maybe he realises he needs a few months coaching to learn what economics is. Or “can we just put the election off till this thing blows over and people are happy to vote republican again?”
Observation: has anyone else noticed that the ABC is very pro McCain?
That dolt who does the breakfast show on News Radio always runs very anti-Obama stuff, and talks up McCain!
Evan I don’t listen to it any more. What has been done to ABC radio in recent years is almost as bad as what has been done to ABC TV. I’m sure most of us watch LateLine but I give most of the rest a swerve.
McCain’s announcement about the campaign suspension is also pretty pompous. It ignores traditional political protocol for personal gain, not the nations. Consider what he can actually do about this now:
He isn’t president and doesn’t hold a position on any relevant finance committee. He’s just one senator amoung many, and compartively poorly qualified to deal with it. So what can he add? He has no proposal to solve it. He has never suggested any either.
This just enables him to avoid answering questions from the press and make posturing speeches in Washington. You can’t run and hide when an issue comes along that you can’t answer, and still call yourself a leader. “No He Can’t.”
Socrates, it’s tragic how much ABC Radio in Sydney has been dumbed down in recent years, to the point that commercial AM radio is sometimes better on some issues!
Evan
Agreed; its not just the bias concerns either. Do you remember back to when Radio National had half a dozen good political reporters, who gave Keating just as hard a time before Howard?
Here’s the poll Obama’s camp will love: even Fox News has him ahead of McCain now 45-39!!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,427241,00.html
“Suspending the campaign” is a pathetic stunt. Someone should ask McCain, if he is really “suspending” his campaign, whether he has told all his media and political advisors (not economic advisors) to take a break? I suspect the answer is no.
When it comes to fixing this mess, “No He Can’t”. He knows it, so this just allows him to dodge questions from the press and make scripted statements. Very weak.
Evan14 @ 484,
If you saw this via a URL on the net, please post it, thanks [Obama's response to this]. Cheers
Julie:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/24/175839/099
Evan14, sorry, don’t worry, I’ve found a link for it, had to search awhile. Turned on CNN on the cable TV too and saw McCain giving a statement on this. He looks like a deer caught in the headlights, doesn’t he?
…… you are right, compared to that attempt, Obama really looked presidential.
Sorry I didn’t make more of an attempt first to find the link myself
…. I’ve got in-laws visiting for a few days and I’ve been distracted 
Between the Suspension Scam and Palin’s no-interview policy, it looks like both Brave McCain and Fiesty Palin are not prepared to answer a single question on how to tackle the world’s single biggest problem. Who would vote for these cowards?
Socrates at #490
“He isn’t president and doesn’t hold a position on any relevant finance committee. He’s just one senator amoung many, and compartively poorly qualified to deal with it. So what can he add? He has no proposal to solve it. He has never suggested any either.”
Unless this all a ruse to try an imbue McCain with some kind of economic credentials. I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear the White House releasing the “McCain Plan” to address the financial crisis in the coming days.
Grant – no doubt you are right, and that was kind of my point about scripted speeches. But this way he can completely avoid any interviews or questions. This is supposed to be an election campaign!
If Shrub is trying to help McCain out, surely Iran will be bombed in October?
The new President Asif Ali Zardari of Paksitan must be not getting it since the tragic death of his wife Benazir Bhutto. In a photo-op with Sarah Palin in NY, he told her that: “She is more gorgeous in real life and he wants to hug her”.
He is probably still dreaming of Sarah in Bikini:
http://www.theimproper.com/Images/Art/sarah%20palin%20bikini%20photo%201.jpg
Maybe Sarah offered to take him on a moose hunt in the wilds of Alaska
If McCain doesnt turn up to the debate then Obama will just go ahead – do the debate and a 90 minute interview with the American people.
If ever there was a clear demonstration of why we need fixed terms for elections this is it. Can anyone imagine an Australian Prime Minister going to an election with such financial turmoil going on?
When crises hit, the people should have the right to choose who they think is best suited to sort it out and not be thwarted by a bunch pf self serving politicians scrambling to save their own backsides. Something akin to the American system of 4 year fixed term is definitely the way to go.
.
The McCain campaign is in disarray!
Hilarious:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/24/193352/735/868/609334
Intrade Battleground 131 charts and data – now with motion gadgets!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/09/24/the-intrade-road-to-the-whitehouse/
What did we do before the net came along and consumed all out time with spiffy techy things eh?
I never ceased to be disgusted on how low the Republican Party is.
This is more on the Republicans trying to stop dispossessed home owners from voting.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/us/politics/25voting.html?hp
Reported in today’s Age that early voting in the US election has already started in some states.
This is much earlier than early voting in Australian elections (usually two weeks – sometimes three – before polling day)
The same item also reported that up to a third of American electors will vote before polling day.
Thomas (507)
In a climate where so many people are now fearful of losing their jobs, their savings and their homes that kind of disgusting tactic can only backfire on them IMHO.
The latest polling from RCP suggests that things are getting real serious for McCain now. The trend is still very much with Obama. The gap seems to be widening daily.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
“The trend is still very much with Obama”
Perhaps more than “serious” Polls record sentiment at a point in time , however I suspect financial meltdown ‘blame’ has been deep seated attached to th “Republican” brand in voters minds (and so by extension tto h “Republican” McCain) & if so its flow on in later polling may return polling status back to July with solid Obama leads
Whilst McCain had partly been successful in gradaully delinking himself from Bush since July , th meltdown narrative to voters may be being regarded as more than just Bush but Republicans whoever they ar , & if so thats irreversible…except for an ‘event’
Other unknowns is some polling has small samples and quantifavction levels of ‘likely voters’ seeing Democrat registrations ar significantly up and also perhaps increased Democrat voters vs 2004 when there’s not an incumbant and there’s a chance to win especialy with black voters
Gary Bruce: very true!
I see that Obama has pulled ahead of McCain in Florida, a state he supposedly was struggling in.
The trend is unmistakably towards Obama – all the polls reflect that – but the margin in most of them is still relatively small.
Nevertheless, it would be a very brave person who would put their money on McCain at this point.
Does anyone know the latest odds for an Obama win?.
I don’t know a lot about the American demographic, but I think I read recently that there are a lot of retirees in Florida.
One could imagine that many of them would be very fearful at this point regarding the safety of their investments and nest eggs and might be starting to see Obama as the safer bet..
A fairly large Jewish vote in Florida also
There could be a huge shift in political reality in process. The Democrats will no doubt from here on continually connect the financial melt down to the Republicans.
Obama $1.47 McCain $2.55 with Sportsbet $1.52 – $2.47 with Centrebet
(Answered my own question)
The current 7-poll average at electoral-vote.com shows that McCain is ahead in FL, 48 to 46.
Darn @ 514,
Florida has a huge population of retirees. Probably the most proportion wise in the country. Second after that would be Arizona but McCain should carry his home state. Problem with the retirees though is WHERE do they vote? Many of them only “winter” in Florida [affectionately known as Sunbirds] and reside 6 months out of the year in their original residence state. Those folks are probably registered in places like New York and Ohio even though they live in Florida 6 months out of the year but you don’t know, they might be registered in Florida. In that case, they would be putting in postal votes.
Dario @ 515,
The Jewish vote across the age spectrum will be going overwhelmingly to Obama – unless these people show reluctance to vote for him merely based upon skin colour. In that instance since voting isn’t compulsory, they will stay home rather than vote Republican. The Jewish vote, for Democrats, should be almost as reliable as the black vote.
I read a day or so ago that Obama is spending another $40 million or so in Florida!
He was campaigning there earlier today!
Juliem @ 520, do you have any poll evidence for that? I would suspect there will be a significant shift of Jewish votes to McCain, because of doubts about Obama’s lack of national security experience.
No, Adam, no poll evidence for that. Just personal example evidence. My ex husband and his family are Jewish as is my oldest son (22) and his GF as well. Purely anectdotal evidence amongst them and their friends/families/contacts (the extended family and friends spill over into the states of Michigan/New York/suburban D.C [Virginia]/Florida/California). My pool of evidence is one extended family (@ 2 to 3 dozen people) over 5 states.
Adam,
I’ve found this (from a NJ Democratic superdelegate to the Dem. convention) and am trying to google more info about the AIPAC and their positions vis a vis Obama. That might help with some more background to support my anecdotal evidence.
This is a .pdf copy of a speech Obama gave to the AIPAC on March 2, 2007. It sounds really good.
http://www.aipac.org/Publications/SpeechesByPolicymakers/Barack_Obama_-_AIPAC_Policy_Forum_2007.pdf
http://209.85.175.104/search?q=cache:pKGYkC30PUQJ:www.cjnews.com/index.php%3Foption%3Dcom_content%26task%3Dview%26id%3D13849%26Itemid%3D86+Jewish+news+Obama&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=au
Anecdotal evidence based on asking one’s friends won’t quite cut it I’m afraid. Liberal Jews will stick with Obama, but there are a lot of not-so-liberal Jews, particularly in Florida. I’d like to see a poll. Lieberman endorsing McCain must have had some effect.
Wonder what th J.wish community actualy believe is Obama’s policy on Jeruselum itself
On 5/6/08 told AIPAC conferenece
“Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided
On 6/6/08 told CNN
You said yesterday that “Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided”
Do Palestinians have no claim to Jerusalem in the future?”
OBAMA: “Well, obviously, it’s going to be up to the parties to negotiate a range of these issues. And Jerusalem will be part of those negotiations, as a practical matter, it would be very difficult to execute” a division of the city”
Obama should sack this idiot and put Hillary back on ticket. he has made so many gaffes, it makes Sarah Palin looks intelligent.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/the_biden_paradox.html?nav=rss_blog
btw: Amigo Ronnie, Mr. J Wish is definitely not happy.
McCain’s little tactic makes him look desperate and like someone who thinks they are losing. I notice that Intrade went strongly to Obama as soon as McCain made his announcement.
Seems only 10% support the debate being put off.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=54d651a7-a62b-4420-bb32-9dd6b2df8c02
Biden and Palin have become irrelevant to the result of this now. The economy has swallowed them all except Obama and McCain who will now have to duke it out. Though McCain is rapidly losing credibility – in my opinion.
FINNS “btw: Amigo Ronnie, Mr. J Wish is definitely not happy.”
As you know Amigo my specialty is making people happy , any suggestions how I could contribute
All polls seem to point to the fact that Obama will still take the Jewish vote although the margins may not be as great as the Dems had in ‘00 and ‘04
Adam, you could find heaps more (I googled for these) if you want
……
Amigo Ronnie, what about putting up $700B? That should make our “Merchants of Venice” happy.
You know when i was taught how to make a public presentation back in my younger days, our teacher used to say to us: “You tell them what you want to tell them, and then you tell them and then you tell them what you told them”. Yes, we were happy.
So this just reminds me of our MOV friends here where “they tell you that they going to rob you, then they rob you and then they tell you they are going to rob you again”. And we suppose to be happy as well.
and Amigo , ah yes those MOV friends hav now inspired me to be robbed happy , and even robbed again as encore happy , and even further now so robbed so blindedly robbed to now create $700B in just one note , but awaiting th call of whose name shall adorn thee so that dems Merchants of Venices shall be truely robber happy
Thanks for that. It’s exactly what I expected. American Jews have been trending Republican for some time (just as Australian Jews are trending Liberal). This is partly generational change (the old Jewish socialist tradition doesn’t mean much to younger generations), partly a reaction against the left’s hostility to Israel, and partly because most Jews are now in upper income levels and would be natural conservatives if they weren’t Jewish. I can tell you from personal experience in Melbourne Ports that there was a big Jewish swing to the Libs in 2004 (didn’t like L*tham), and only some of it came back in 2007 (liked Rudd, buit liked Howard better). For many US Jews, Obama will be their L*tham.
To say it’s looking bad for McCain in the polls is an understatement. Look at the Intrade score
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
The RCP average is 47.9 to 44.4. That’s hardly a landslide. If you look at the state-by-state situation, which is what counts, nothing much has changed. Obama leads in three Bush states – NM, CO and IA, but has a solid lead only in IA. He has very narrow leads in PA and MI. VA and NH are tied. McCain still leads in OH and FL. There’s plenty of juice in this race yet.
The trend, Adam. The trend.
Don’t forget that the state numbers generally lag the national numbers by a week
Adam let me quote Possum at 357.
“Did you folks know that on 23 September 2004, the Intrade markets were only two States out from the actual election results: Wisconsin and New Mexico.
The polls on the other hand….”
intrade has Obama at 56.9, McCain at 43.6. Good time to buy if you are still thinking McCain can win…
The “trend” has been for the race to be very close, and for the lead to change back and forth. The Wall St crash *may* be the game-changer, but it may not be depending on how the candidates play their cards.
Gary Bruce @ 537,
OH man, that loooooks so good
…….. Can someone remind me again what sort of predictive reliability that Intrade has? That will help me feel much better about these numbers 
Adam @ 538 &Gary @ 539,
Adam, why are you always looking at the glass being half-emtpy? Can’t you look at the glass being half-full? Get with the trend
………..
Not so Adam. Since this meltdown the trend has been one way and continues. Before Palin came on the scene the trend was Obama in front and it’s back to that now.
Adam: get over it, Hillary didn’t win the nomination!
One wonders whether you even want Obama to win?
If we’re going to impart mystical predictive powers to Intrade, surely we need to take what it says at face value, rather than imagine what it might say a week from now. Try rolling a die some time – there’s a very real chance you’ll get a 1 or a 2.
I hope the $700B bailout package is voted down. Bush has said the economic system may collapse, but I don’t believe him. If that is true, it shouldn’t be much trouble to come up with more evidence than contained in a three page note. It consists more of sweeping powers and exemption from prosecution than any explanations or principles for appliaction. An open check to be given to a proven liar – who would do that?
Congress needs to call Bush’s bluff: fool me once shame on Bush, fool me twice shame on America.
Indeed I hope Obama doesn’t even go to the Bush – candidates meeting. It is totally inappropriate – the candidates are just candidates, not the government. They should be holding their debate saying what they would do when in office, nothing more.
This smells of a blatant attempt from Bush to help McCain, I suspect the two of them cooked this up! Is this the start of the Republicans stealing the election?
Perhaps what happens next is that Iran is bombed?
I’m not quite sure how that can work though… the Democrats control Congress and anything that is passed has to get their approval at least
Let me remind you William of my initial post on this.
“To say it’s looking bad for McCain in the polls is an understatement.” No predictive element in that.
However, if you see a “predictive element” in Possum’s comment you may want to discuss it with him.
I suspect that is what they (Bush and McCain) are trying Evan. It might not be just Bush. There must be dozens of republican apparachiks in the Bush administration terrified of a change of government. Some of them are not just facing unemployment. After the illegal prisoner torture, outing of a federal agent (Plame) and sacking of federal prosecutors, there must be several with a genuine fear of jail. They will do anything to cling to power.
The democrats in congress need to grow a spine, stare them down, and not agree to any deal that doesn’t include full disclosure of the extent of the problem and where the money is going, taxpayers gaining equity in the firms, limits on executive salary, and completion of criminal investigations for possible fraud. Here is an excellent article on how Sweden solved a problem like this in the early 90s in a far more sensible fashion:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/worldbusiness/23krona.html?em
Fair point Gary, but you do also seem to be talking about the “trend” of Intrade. It strikes me that this is double counting. If Intrade is indeed more accurate than the polls, surely it’s because it incorporates the collective wisdom of how things are likely to play out in future – in other words, by factoring in the trend.
The bailout deal is basically done before McCain has even been involved. Just making his campaign suspension look utterly ridiculous now (if it hadn’t already).
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26884523/
Obama up by 2 in North Carolina in the latest Rasmussen poll! Wow
Obama leads by 3 in the national Rasmussen poll, up by 1
MOE on the national poll was 2% with 3000 Likely Voters
McCain has announced 5 things he is going to propose that should be in the bailout deal… and it sounds like they are already in it anyway. Maybe this was the plan? Get him to try and take credit for the whole thing? I can’t see it working as everyone knows (including the press) that he has had nothing to do with it…
http://www.politicshome.com/usa/Landing.aspx?Blog=3221&perma=link#3221
The big problem McCain faces at the moment is that there is a lot of fear and a lot of anger among the American people at the moment over the financial meltdown and about two thirds of them seem to be blaming the republicans.
Also it is likely IMHO that these two highly charged emotions will result in a much higher than normal turnout and this is more likely to favour the democrats. As we say in Australia, there are a lot of electors who will be waiting for the republicans with baseball bats.
Add to that the debates, which it is hard to see Mccain and Palin winning in the present climate, and McCain looks really up against it. It will be a BIG surprise if the current trend does not continue – but stranger things have happened.
I dare say a lot of the disaffected Hilary supporters who announced they would rather vote for McCain than
Obama will be having second thoughts too.
You would think McCain ought to be stuffed at this point.
I wouldn’t rule out another twist though – and the thing is that the race is still quite close (notwithstanding the trend).
Assuming the debate happens this weekend (which it probably will, looks like there’s a pretty good chance they’ll agree the bailout in principle Thursday US time), what’s the betting McCain’s going to come out fighting in a big way? Which is his natural mode anyway.
Not sure how that will go, but it ought to be worth watching!
To be brutally honest I reckon by polling day there won’t be many Democrat Hillary voters that vote Republican. More likely they just won’t vote at all, and I think the whole anti-Obama thing has just been more of a vent than anything else.
There may be even a more simplistic voter reponse , how come Banks who ar disliked & allegedly hav already got all of peoples savings getting taxpayer monies in first place It is anti peoples NORMAL perceptions of th direction Government money should be going …and Bush is seen to be giving this tax payer money away although actualy 550 Congressmen ar
Unfortunate reality is bailout is needed for confidence & create liquiidity so business can continue
Dario,
Tend to agree there.
One of the things that I have trouble understanding about this election, specifically the opinion polling, is how to reconcile it to the kind of turnouts the two parties had in the primaries. Admittedly a good proportion of the Republican primaries occurred after the real contest was over, but even so, their turnouts were so low versus the Dems, you wonder how McCain can still be in it.
Will if he’s down by 2 in NC I’m not sure he is in it any more…
Ron,
Some kind of bailout is needed, that’s a complete no-brainer, unless the US Treasury and Govt want to go down in history like their predecessors in 1930, men who fiddled while Rome burned.
It’s not all that easy to see how appropriate accountability will be enforced, and also what happens if the Govt spends $700b on what are in effect junk bonds, and then there’s a whole lot more junk bonds still to come?
The AIG solution (Govt taking something like equity) is probably better, as it ensures that the institution (in its current form) dies, but the counterparties still get paid. Shareholders get punished and senior execs (presumably) get kicked out. Problem is there might not be enough money to do that to all the institutions that would need it.
The blunders that led to the banking crisis
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19926754.200-the-blunders-that-led-to-financial-catastrophe.html?DCMP=ILC-hmts&nsref=top1_head_The%20blunders%20that%20led%20to%20the%20banking%20crisis
Dario (565)
I have felt all along that when it came to the crunch the American people would balk at electing a black man. But this crisis is probably just the bit of luck Obama needs to overcome that and just get over the line.
“(Govt taking something like equity)”
problem would be Fed Govt would own a share of alot of Wall Steet monies and tax payers then face continuing risks …without reely knowing what they ar doing or what greater exposire is incurred
Think better to swap doubtful debts for liquidity , with companys taking a hit in some losses so business can actualy re commence as both liquidity & confidence is becoming critical (but with continuing oversights & criteria of whats taken over)
Sorry – My reference to 565 should have been Dyno, not Dario.
Dyno
“One of the things that I have trouble understanding about this election, specifically the opinion polling, is how to reconcile it to the kind of turnouts the two parties had in the primaries.”
I actualy hav wondered not just that but an even more deep seated problem with th polling since March for 4 months Hillary was easily more electable than Obama on all polls vs mcCain…yet over those 4 months Democrat regiisrations rose dramaticaly over Republican ones BUT whilst Hillary continued consisteently to be shown on polls to far more electable than Obama vs McCain neither of Hillary or Obama seemed to increase there actual margin over McCain
Hav always suspected therefore Polls (even those measuring likely voters) ar still understating likely voters…and specificaly Democrat voters more , if that is case then Obama’s actual lead is greater
Obama just gave his own speech to the CGI and mentioned 4 of the 5 proposals McCain did in his speech to the CGI (which are already agreed on by Congress I think). Can’t see how McCain profits out of this now…
New thread.