A pre-Turnbull Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of 1703 respondents, conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead down from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5. Labor has taken a five point hit on the primary vote since the late August survey, from 50 per cent to 45 per cent, although the Coalition is only up one point to 38 per cent. Most of the balance is accounted for by a spike in the “independent/others” vote from 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, which is 1 per cent higher than at any stage during the current term. The Greens are up from 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.
UPDATE (20/9/08): Comments brings news of a Galaxy poll to appear in tomorrow’s News Limited papers showing Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 per cent to 28 per cent; 63 per cent say Turnbull will make no difference to their vote; 48 per cent describe Turnbull as arrogant compared with 23 per cent for Kevin Rudd. ABC TV reports the sample was about 400. Hat-tip: Bushfire Bill and Andos.
339 Comments
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It’s been illuminating, to say the least.
.
Too much bias for my liking ,(ya gotta be a lib or preferably labor man) and not enough even handed commentary. .
I bid you good night King William and followers.
This site promised much and delivered drivel ‘err I mean little.
Syonnara. I won’t waste my time coming back.
No 197
He is very personable and very smart. No-one becomes a high-flyer like him by having rocks for brains.
In terms of his blokeyness, that’s a matter of opinion. Sure, he’s not from the ‘burbs of Western Sydney, but that’s a meaningless measure of leadership anyway. I mean, Nathan Rees is so out of ideas, that his only distinguishing characteristic from the rabble that is the NSW government is that he’s from Toongabbie.
360 people? Hell, that’s worse than Westpoll.
yeah, seems low even for the Advertiser – I think they usually at least hit the 400 mark?
I wouldn’t be concerned by any polls over in SA atm. There next election is a fixed date in March 2010.
gusface, not quite sure what you mean here?
I will say that Rudd surely did court avenues of the media to build a public profile (very successfully too, I might add) earlier but since then with his higher profile, he is now courted by the media and is able to pick what exposure he feels is necessary in his role as PM but some he can’t really avoid on certain issues such as the 7.30 Report etc.
This type of exposure is not necessarily of benefit as it is unscripted, on the spot style which can be potentially damaging to his image if he slips up or gets toey. I think in general he handles this quite well though.
No 205
And hopefully Wran and that traitor, Karlene Maywalds, are ejected from office.
kj – it’s a pity you didn’t have more to offer really.
Neville retired years ago GP.
By the way, another surprising comment from you. I never would have thought.
GP: Who exactly was Maywald committing treason against?
Oh Dear, looks like ‘People Skills’ has Knocked the Opposition attack about pensioners for six.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24372680-953,00.html
No 209
Mike hasn’t retired yet, you duffer
No 211
I agree with Abbott. His talent is wasted in such a mundane portfolio.
At least spell his name correctly, it’s Rann
It was a joke GP. You spelt Rann as Wran as in Neville.
No 210
Her own conservative constituents; the National Party; and the Liberal Party.
No 215
LOL, my bad. Although, it looks like Aunty made the same spelling error: http://www.abc.net.au/pm/stories/s706936.htm
I think Abbott will cop the rounds of the kitchen in parliament next week. Thanks Tony.
Scorpio
I meant 165 (the numbering changes sometimes)
“quick hypothetical
If it was howard taking 10 trips in his first year,would you condone or condemn?
secondly would alp strategists look to develop a meme along the lines of what is happening now?”
as regards your @206 I agree but still feels his is “bound” to the media as opposed to “above” it
213 “I agree with Abbott. His talent is wasted in such a mundane portfolio.”
What talent might that be GP?
No 220
If we’re going to go there, I may as well ask the same of the ALP frontbench, the talentless bunch of union hacks that they are. There we go, I got that off my chest.
Now, can we get back to the issues?
Thanks Listy, I’ve put up a post on the Advertiser poll.
GP: Ah, I see. So when her apparently conservative electorate had the chance to punish her for her ‘treason’, why didn’t they?
No 223
They had an unfortunate exposure to bolsheviks.
I’m with GP on this. I think it is irrelevant how many trips the leader of the country does as long as there are no frivolous undertones or agenda attached.
I can’t recall any major issue being made by Labor regarding Howard’s trips but there would have been some comments regarding his extracurricular activities at Lords and Rugby Tests, Broome etc but probably beat up more by the media.
GP, it wouldn’t be because he finds shadowing Jenny Macklin a bit difficult, would it?
A match up against Julia would give him more of a challenge possibly?
No 226
It is much more entertaining watching the Julia v Tony stoushes.
No 227,
Couldn’t agree more.
We’ll decide who stays in this country and the circumstances in which they will donate to the Liberal Party.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/vanstone-in-donation-for-visa-row/2008/09/19/1221331245863.html?page=2
Annabell Crabbe put it well this morning: “Turnbull tries to give the impression that he is smarter than everyone else,” without actually saying so. Presumably that would look immodest.
So Turnbull corrects the wording of the Reserve Bank governor’s speech and offers to bring a little professional rigour into the national discourse by “helping” Rudd run the economy, all the while threatening to ruin the Surplus (those billions of dollars are a mere bagatelle, he tells us). There are so many things to do in a busy man’s life. This before he has even appointed a Shadow Treasurer, much less a Shadow front bench. LOL.
He is attempting to get the kudos for living in a rented flat on New South Head Rd., Vaucluse, for a short period (the rest of his boyhood was spent boarding at Grammar), yet at the same time claims the other 99% of his life as a rich wheeler dealer is off limits. As if to say, “I only talked about me being poor. YOU brought up me being rich.”
I suspect Turnbull will be seen off quicker than Nelson’s 10 months. Who next? Joe Hockey? Double-LOL.
BB, it’s almost like he is trying to do a reverse Whitlam, a one man “Super Ministry” but from the Opposition Benches. LOL alright.
I have got a sneaky suspicion our friend “kj” only came on board last night to engage in a bit of “tr#lling”. Not particularly impressed by his efforts though.
None of this pointless empathetic stuff from our Malcolm.
If he sat with someone in the gutter at 3 am in the morning at King’s Cross, by the time he’d left the other guy would know in no uncertain terms that a part scholarship to some exclusive school would be all that was necessary to change his life around.
You can see our Mal bounding out of the passenger’s seat in the truck, having rearranged the truckie’s schedule for the next week, straightened out the rather peculiar entries in his log book and recommended an obscure firm in the Caribbean as the best place to refinance the truck.
As for the women agonising over whether to fill the tank with fuel or buy steak for her family, Malcolm would put her on to a good thing in meat futures, indexed to counterbalance the price of fuel, and her problems would be solved.
Three people sorted out…only 19,999,997 to go…
It’s not only that Malcolm is a know-all, it’s his and his party’s preoccupation with “winning the next election” that will irk the punters, in my opinion.
He is clearly dead-scared that the economy will indeed prove to be more immune to the world financial crisis than many others, and will have staged somewhat of a recovery back to near full health by 2010. Hence his keenness to get on the winning bandwagon now, even if it is one driven by the other side of politics! Classic “big end of town” tactics: stand in the glow of what you hope will be success and hope some of it rubs off.
Speaking of “the big end of town”, according to the Herald-Sun apparently they are knocking down Malcolm’s door with donations (or so say “senior Liberal” sources), even at this early stage. No Shadow Cabinet, no policies, just Force Of Nature, Mal. Apart from a tacit admission that TBEOT is the Lib’s natural constituency (in contrast to their latest “for the little people” schtik), I wouodn’t be bragging too much about being friends with TBEOT, chief snake-oil salesmen of the Sub-Prime Crisis, in the current economic bad times.
I suspect the truth is that Mal hasn’t picked his Shadow Cabinet is because he is having a tad of trouble with the Faceless-41. I also suspect that TBEOT hasn’t been donating-up too readily and that most of Mal’s big talk is for the benefit of the troops, rather than the populace at large.
No 234
The “TBEOT” is not the Libs natural constituency. You’d be surprised how many lower-middle class, or simple working class people vote for us. Also, for your assumption to be true, you’d think the Greens would have been less successful in the inner-city wealthy areas of Sydney.
So the newfangled concern for pensioners has been exposed as a sham by Abbott who wants to be nearer the action. It’s going to make it difficult for the next Shadow Minister for Communities to get any traction with the General Public.
235 [The “TBEOT” is not the Libs natural constituency.]
We know GP, it used to be, but now it is anything to cling to Opposition that drives the Liberal Party.
232 scorpio – for some reason I though kj was a she (probably because I have a female friend whose initials are kj lol) but s/he said s/he’ll never be back – so no doubt we’ll see him/her soon – like everyone else here (myself included) who has threatened to leave for good!
230 BB do you have a link for that? I can’t find it on the web site. AC does have a nice little vale for Costello though (and credit to Annabel for not once falling for the PC is coming back line):
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/costello-crowd-left-with-the-long-end-of-the-schtick/2008/09/19/1221331201823.html
I’m not surprised at all. The world is full of class traitors who want to associate with those they regard as “better than thereselves”.
What surprises me is that said “senior Liberal source” would boast that getting (completely unsubstantiated vapourware) donations from TBEOT is something that will impress anyone at all, much less the mainstream of middle class voters who have seen billions wiped off their superannuation by the gouging antics of TBEOT, here and overseas.
It just doesn’t work that way. If TBEOT is rushing to donate (which I don’t believe they are at all) based solely on Turnbull’s bum being on the Leadership seat, they are a very sorry lot and have big lessons to learn, chiefly the one that warns, “One swallow doth not a summer make.” Just as you cannot leverage a Louisiana dirt farmer’s dodgy mortgage into a AAA+ financial instrument, or put lipstick on a pig, you cannot elevate a flaky wheeler-dealer to the leadership of a major political party by the thinnest of margins and thereby get rid of the most popular government in decades.
I remember back a couple of decades ago when Kerry Packer was the Battlers’ choice for Prime Minister, after one evidence session before a Parliamentary committee. Turned out afterwards everything he was saying was lies. He paid no tax (theft or not) and was fully intending to take over day-to-day control of Fairfax, despite vehement denials, under oath. Turnbull the ratted on his “friend” by dobbing him in to Peter Westaway’s Broadcasting Tribunal, not out of public duty, but out for a fee from his clients. He received a recent endorsement from notorious fraudster and convicted thief, Conrad Black (from his jail cell!). He is a merchant banker in a world where merchant bankers are anathema to good governance… there will be many within and without the Party who will never fogive Turnbull for his treachery, his Machiavellian machinations, and many of the public will never forget the circles in which he mixed, and still mixes.
TBEOT… piffle.
Link here: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24374681-5007133,00.html
Turnbull: the Acibiades of Australian politics.
239 BB yes I recall all that Packer for PM bullsh*te. Rather similar to the John Elliot for leader of the Liberal Party guff. The 80s were a wierd time for the Libs…
and is it Alcibiades? (I only say because I had to google it!)
Instead of tell us the embarrassing result of the do nothing Liberal Executive meeting yesterday to sort out the woes of the Queensland Liberal Party, the Australian sent Sid Maher out to interview Ian Macfarlane.
What a surprise! He came out with a an all singing, cork popping, hallelujah chorus singing the praises of the National Party takeover. Damage control on a weekend when Newspoll is doing surveys no doubt.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24373762-5006786,00.html
steve @ 229 -
We’ll decide who stays in this country and the circumstances in which they will donate to the Liberal Party.
Hmmm. Mandy gives an alleged member of the Calabrian Mafia linked to a series of Melbourne murders a visa soon after he and his friends drops a wad of cash into the Howard Party collection plate and a few years later she’s off the northern Calabria, aka Rome, as our ambassador. Interestingly, she got the gig at a time when there were vacancies in the organisations’ upper echelons, particularly for a Capo di Tutti Capi (Boss of Bosses), as the Italian police became increasingly effective.
Coincidence, or….?
Correction:
a few years later she’s off
theto northern CalabriaAnd Far North Calabria might be more accurate
MF
If you want to be picky, the Calabrian organised crime group is more accurately called the ‘Ndrangheta.
Diogenes, after all those expensive Chinese lessons, Mandy probably just refers to them as the Triad.
From the Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcibiades, which I offer as a link because it seems to be very well and fairly written.
and Thucydides’ opinion:
What the Americans would call a “maverick”, who worked both sides against each other – first the Athenians against the Spartans, the the Spartans against the Athenians, then back to the Athenians again, and finally to the Persians – and ended up dying an ignominious death in exile.
No 239
What a load of rubbish. These so-called ‘class traitors’ vote for us because they have lived through the worst recession we had to have, the millions of job losses to fulfil a former prime ministers ‘big picture’ piffle and the empty rhetoric that so characterises the labor party.
The liberal coffers are filling thanks to malcolms unmistakably pro-business past. They will continue to fill as voters contemplate years of emptiness that rudd heralds.
*Arrives to wonder why the f*ck we are discussing Alcibiades*
Actually GP the 1982 Fraser/Howard recession was statistically worse than the Keating recession. Look it up.
Grog, don’t forget the “Bronwyn Bishop for PM” campaign.
It was a classic but the “Jo for Canberra” campaign which derailed Howard’s push would take a lot of beating although it was a Nationals campaign.
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