The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.
There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.
UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.
UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.
663 Comments
Newspoll
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381569-601,00.html
Can’t say that I think it is particularly intuitive or believable. However, if the Newspoll shows something similar then the standard size bounce that Possums show has occured. However really it is counter intuitive to the reality of politics and performance of Rudd and Co so far.
The Newspoll shows a small bounce, less than the average. Too bad, didnt get my outlier, or did I
The problem with these figures to me is picking out if movements are bounce, MOE effect or the gradual effect of gravity coming off high figures as the government spends more time in power.
I suspect it is part of the gradual movement downwards over time from high figures and a bit of sentiment for the newness of Turnbull in the job.
I still expect it to be around 53/47 nearing election time.
This from the Newspoll article. So what was the figure for Rudd? 23% for Turnbull on the environment? Surely that’s not good.
Finally after two years of huge numbers a set of polls that seem more in line with the traditional first term Government poll numbers.
I think both PM Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull would be happy with these numbers! a real political contest ideal for us politcal junkies
The “decisive and strong” rating will fall over time for Turnbull if the interview on channel nine this morning is typical of what we can expect. He was awful.
“Mr Turnbull is also seen as being less trustworthy than Mr Rudd by a wide margin, 55 per cent to the Prime Minister’s 70 per cent.”
Not sure that I understand what they are saying with those figures. Is that a margin of 55% or are they saying 70% trust Rudd and 55% Turnbull?
It is however Turbull’s soft point. That I imagine Labor will target over time.
The economic figures dont stand up for me and hint at a bias in the sample:
“There is little to separate Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull on the issue of economic management, with the Opposition Leader on 43 per cent and the Prime Minister on 41per cent.”
Rudd has been quite conservative, responsible on the economy. Rates have come down and Labor has made a point of continually stating their efforts etc on the economy. Whereas the Liberals haven’t been doing that much and Swan was beating Turnbull before on economics. So this result seems a bit out of kilter with intuition.
hmmm, at least they are both moving in the right direction.
But i wouldnt put too much into polls taken the week we change leaders.
Turnbull will have made an impact if the Coalition becomes more competative in the polls (ie less than 5% behind) in a months time.
I agree Turnbull has a less than great in front of camera manner and, it is worse on radio. But then again at this stage the majority wont be listening, just hearing him making a noise and looking the part.
Glen is right a quick poll in the midst of the global economic noise and footy finals and so on…
Thomas it would be foolish to get all worked up over 2 polls taken just days after Turnbull became leader…let’s see how they are in a month or two and we’ll be better able to analyse whether Turnbull has had a positive impact.
8 – agreed Glen.
I’m surprised you aren’t more positive about this result Glen. The ACNielsen poll is a good one for Turnbull.
damn i guessed 54 for newspoll
doh
acnielsen…didnt they say 57-43 on the eve of the election…
But it’s ACNielsen and i cannot count the number of times i have said bull butter to their polls or was that Morgan….hmmm maybe i have more respect for AC than Morgan…
Still its sad to say it but i am liking seeing an 8 as our second number on 2pp
Still early days and Newspoll didnt record a bounce…meh lets wait and see.
Glen is right! these polls are mean little apart from looking more traditional for a first term government!
On a side note I feel a little for the PM when he is interview by journos who don’t seem to know what they are talking about.
Channel 7 had a special on the Economy and Chris Bath ask the PM about the Australian financial sector in which he replied that there was good regulation in place and the Banks had healthy profit etc next thing Chris Bath threw at the PM what are you doing about it!
I’m sorry but didn’t she hear the answer
AC Nielsen was the poll that consistently gave Labor great ratings before the election but was in the end way off the mark. I think someone said they changed their ways this time around..so will now have to wait and see how they have changed. I think their earlier poll this year was also one of the lower ones?
The Newspoll is within MOE.
So at the end of the day we are none the wiser I guess. Too bad I want to know now!
There is an upside in Turnbull getting strong ratings if he does at some stage and that is the same advantage Rudd got before the election – the confidence and strength to follow his own lead. If Turnbull does well he might feel confident to bring the party back to the left and the likes of Minchin wont be able to say much.
Hartcher pencilling in a win for the Libs next election. He obviously hasn’t read Newspoll or Glen.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/bpeter-hartcherb/2008/09/21/1221935450273.html
what will the gap become after 2 or 3 more interest rate drops, with turncoat and the libs persisting with their attacks on labor over perceived economic management weakness eh?
And ‘as if’ turncoat wouldn’t be off to NY to schmooze with all those slimey merchant banker types there given the first opportunity, but apparently he’d just phone them…
I find it bizarre journos predicting the outcome of an election so far in the future and especially with almost zero data to support their assertions, apart their personal desire for it to happen.
This is the same sort of nonsense he and others put out before the election when something negative happened for Rudd. They are it seems unable to de-couple rational analytical thinking from their own bias and desires.
He may be overly exicted but Turnbull has had a good week as most new leaders would want!
In many ways we are still in the pre-season and its easy to win matches during the pre-season I think from this point on national politics will be more even than the past 10 months but PM Rudd and the ALP are still firmly in Government and deserve to remain the clear favorites to win the next election.
We might also note that the Morgan F2F showed a dip for Labor (prior to Turnbull) so it also possible that any dip was simply gravity in action.
nite
A reasonably good result for Turnbull, just days after assuming the leadership. Still inconclusive though, and I concur with Glen that we really can’t make any meaningful assessment of Turnbull’s impact until a few months time.
“Don’t mention The Greens”
It’s a constant source of amusement to me, how the biggest shift in votes in reacent times is deliberatly ignored.
When the votes for the major parties move a couple of points headlines are generated for days,
However, when The Greens double their vote or representation, the sound of silence is defening.
For the Neilson poll to have the Coalition primary on 42% Rudd and the ALP would have had to do something wrong or were all the single pensioners polled.
Bully is having problem “feeling their pain”. It will dog him until he stops talking as if he is still in the court room addressing the members of the jury and the judge.
No way is LNP ahead on primaries – the Neilson has to be a rogue poll.
I wonder if the leadership spill would have had a different result if it had been called after these polls were released
A good result for a rabble who think parliament is only a part time job.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/5030388/costello-world-bank-corruption-body/
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381151-2702,00.html
If I were Bully, i wouldn’t brag about his past glory as “a merchant banker”, which has been updated to a “investment banker” lately. It is precisely this type of bankers that has led to the financial market meltdowns by punting on OPM, exhibit A: FAI & HIH. He would be better off talking about parasites.
How does Neilson get 52-48 from primaries of 41-42?
By my maths that means 17% are going to vote for someone else. So Neilson has given 6% to LNP and 11% to Labor. Did Labor get 66% of all preferences at the last election?
the Neilson poll has never been very accurate, Newspoll is the one we usually go by and by that it’s fairly normal, the 5aa radio commentators this morning were practically wetting themselves over the Neilson poll, Newspoll never got a mention, neither did the negatives for Turnbull nor the positives for Rudd.
i thought Rudd was excellent on Rove last night, he needs to show a little more of his relaxed smiling persona, it’s hard not to warm to him when you see that side of him and it’s a direct contrast to Turnbull’s smug little smile–in fact i cant recall ever seeing Turnbull give an outright laugh, he always looks brooding, shallow as it seems, to most people that impression goes a long way, unlike us politic groupies who dissect everything.
Actually Judith – Nielsen has always been accurate.
The funny business at the 2007 election came from them using Monday results in their final poll. The ALP and LNP pollsters all reckon a movement occurred to the Libs on Tuesday/Wednesday and Nielsen by polling on Monday had some of that pre-late movement wash into their results. The other pollsters didnt have Monday results in their sample, hence their lower ALP results in their final polls.
If Nielsen removed the Monday figures, their polls were pretty much spot on like all the other pollsters.
Yes, the MSM is predictably bashing Labor from all fronts this morning!
Let’s wait for a few more polls before we declare Rudd’s reign is over!
after a good nights sleep – yes the Nielsen does look the odd man out. I suspect Newspoll seems more true to form. Anyways, a long time to go until the election. There will be more ups and downs for both sides.
So Costello is going hang around to act as insurance against Turnbull making too many Left looking policies? In otherwords he and the LNP are still hamstrung and thus stuffed.
And I never recall the media kicking up too much of a fuss over Howard’s frequent trips to the U.K, to watch the Ashes or visit the Queen. I guess Rudd going to talk to bankers and financial regulators in Wall Street isn’t important enough, right?
All very well and good Possum, but one of those polls is less accurate than the other.
Turnbull is your classic flash rat with a gold tooth. That’s his modus vivendi. Get ‘em to sign on the dotted line before they’ve read the fine print. Rudd has seen off Howard, Vaile, Downer and Nelson and has left Costello emasculated on the back benches with a dud book for comfort. All of these were unassailable (especially in the eyes of Hartcher et al) less than a year ago. He’ll see off Turnbull as well.
Not necessarily BB. Newspoll on the TPP is between 52 and 58 for the ALP while Nielsen is between 49 and 55 for the ALP.
Just using the overlap we have a shared ALP TPP of between 52 and 55.
This time last month with these two pollsters, the shared overlap was on the ALP TPP was 53 to 58 .
A bounce was expected – a bounce happened.
so who won?
Hmm – don’t know what to make of these two polls.
The 52/48 is very good for the Libs – they haven’t been that close in Neilsen poll since 2006 and it’s the best poll results for them since the twin 52/48s they got from Newspoll and Galaxy on the eve of the election.
However, the 55/45 suggest more of the same – small movement within MOE and Turnbull having a minimal impact on the polls.
Grog – Gusface did, by beating of Gabhran on Truffles PPM metric by a point.
steve
I think he was referring to the “new job” being part time
neilson did a better job of predicting what I thought newspoll would be, than I did predicting what newspoll would be.
oh well, back to the real world – when does he bother announcing his shadow bench? (5 minutes after Rudd’s plane takes off??)
owch Possum, i bow to your experienced self lol, i still dont think Rudd has much to worry about just yet, though maybe i’m the eternal optimist, someone ought to punch holes in talculm’s ranting about Rudd’s overseas travel, Howard did more days overseas in 2002-2003 and 2005 than what Rudd is doing this year and there was no economic meltdown crisis then, though come to think of it there was cricket and tennis and a holiday with the Bush’s beckoning him and his missus.mind you talculm went tootling overseas to make himself known to world leaders as the potential opposition leader earlier this year under the guise of shadow treasurer — or do you think i’m being cynical lol.
Was just watching Tony Blair on Jon Stewart; and you think, well there’s a guy who handed over to his treasurer just like Costello wanted Howard to do; and it looks like Labour will get slaughtered at the next election.
Fact is succession plans sound nice, but it gets to a point that leaders are just deckchairs on the Titanic.
and big congrats to gusface.
42 – Grog, according to Alison Carabine (3AW) Malcolm will take full advantage of Rudd being away to announce his shadow front bench. What the?
She also says that Rudd, being mindful of the criticism of going overseas, will leave after QT today. Of course he was probably always going to do so but, hey, why let the truth get in the way of a good story.
Did anyone see Laurie Oakes’ interview with Malcolm? Malcolm said that each trip by themselves probably had merit, including this last one, but that together they posed a problem. Am I missing something here or is that gobbledy gook?
gb – truth??? what is this thing you speak of?
I’m home taking care of sick kids, so was looking forward to Julia in QT.
Surely he has to announce it before QT? if not they’ll savage him as being so gutless as to have to wait for the PM to be out of the country before he does anything.
46 yes GB you are: 2+2=5. I thought you knew that by now.
I think GP and Glen have got it right and Possum makes a good point. There was a bounce but we need to wait to see what that bounce does from here, like with McCain and Palin.
if things were so critical here, then why was talculm our shadow treasurer at the time sunning himself on the beach overseas a week ago instead of being here to mind the shop?
yep GB The next newspoll will be the more interesting one.
Well of course this is all to be expected. Turnbull was going to come in with the whole weight of the Howard media behind him and, expect it to run for some time as they did at one stage for Nelson. Get used to things being put in whatever context best helps Turnbull.
Would have been interesting to see what TPP the Galaxy had given all the personal elements for Turnbull were quite bad – but they say those questions were asked.
The only thing that confuses me is that Turnbull leads Rudd on the economic front when the last poll on the issue had Swan beating Turnbull. I cannot see any reason public perception would have changed in the meantime. We have had interest rate cuts, our financial system is under control and their have been statements to the effect that our financial system is of a better quality and, Labor has been going on about the economy from day one. So that result just doesn’t rign true to me.
I watched Rupert yesterday singing the praises of Obama (exciting, a changing in thinking etc) and saying McCain had problems to deal with. And when asked if he had anything to do with the New York post endorsing Obama his reply was ‘Yes!’
Don’t tell me he is mellowing? Or is he wanting to disown any association with the Repulicans Wall Street crash. Hopefully he has mellowed and will stick a big stick into his Howardista journalists here.
“..but they say those questions were asked. ” I mean were not asked.
Those of us who’ve been around any decent amount of time know that an early Newspoll can only mean one thing.
Apparently Turnbull has been talking down the economy again.
He’s been suggesting the government should emulate Bush with his own Bunyip Bailout of banks that don’t need bailing out. To do this he would naturally have to stay at home and not be off galavanting in New York where there are strip clubs to tempt him from the straight and narrow.
It all makes sense for about 10 seconds.
So, I suppose when the local markets panic at an unexpected bailout, and when our credit rating drops precipitously, the Libs can then say the economy isn’t being run properly by Rudd The Dud.
This guy, Turnbull, is brainstorming out loud, with the economy as his sounding board. Not a good look for a supposedly sober Opposition Leader, but exactly what merchant bank jocks do as they put together another dodgy deal. Run-it-up-the-flagole-and-see-who-salutes type of stuff. They know better than the Reserve Bank and feel perfectly free to correct the odd bit of messy wording, just to help out, mind you. They offer to share their fiscal brilliance with the plodding Labor triers, again only in the spirit of national unity. It’s all so easy, actually, the kind of thing you jot down on the back of an envelope and get the secretary to type up into something that looks meaningful. A quick shake hands all ’round and the Deal’s Done. Just like those AMEX ads they used to run on the telly. All sleeves-rolled-up and ties loosened before the blessed go out for bagels at 7am.
I guess it’s a superficially attractive set piece, and if the slower thinking among the mortgage-stressed think they might save a few dollars on the monthly payments, or that their super might go up a tad as a result then why all the worry-worting from the government about a mere $6 billion? Not to worry that this kind of slick, boiler room deal-making is what got us into the mess we’re in in the first place. Or that a federal government taking on loss-making paper as a way of cleaning it up would kill confidence in our economy (as it has in the States). Or even that the Surplus would likely disappear. There’s always a simple solution that involves a few dashed-off figures and a little bit of snake-oil. Quite straightforward, don’t y’know?
TP, on the economic question, the normal joe blow who isnt a politic tragic would probably just see that talculm was a banker and score on that, they wouldnt know the difference between a banker and a merchant banker, a few more boo boos like this one and they’ll soon sit up and notice.
http://abc.com.au/news/
The Narrowing at last!!! Well, in one poll at least…
When 54-46 gets reported as:
Turnbull puts life into Libs; and
Political Lady Luck favours Turnbull with good timing
you know that the actuall numbers means nothing to the journo at The Oz.
more shadow speculation:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381588-2702,00.html
Abbott looks set to stay “off centre stage”… (the first politician to be undone by his own blog?)
Question: does anyone here seriously believe Turnbull is that much more arrogant than Rudd?
Probably wasting my time asking here, but I’m curious nonetheless. I think they’re both as arrogant as each other (although Rudd is better at hiding it.) Both need a knock to the head from time to time. But I’d much rather have an arrogant twat than a useless dithering idiot as our leader.
Turnbull is arrogant in that he thinks he knows it all. I’m fine with that. It’s when politicians are arrogant to the extent they think they take voters for granted that I (and many like me) crack the sh!ts. And say what you want about Turnbull, I highly doubt he thinks the latter – at this point anyway.
Our greatest treasurer had an ego bigger than the current two leaders combined. Second greatest wasn’t far off him. I’ll leave you to deliberate on which one I think is which.
Max – yep both arrogant; Rudd better at hiding it (just as Howard was). Name me any leader worth his or her salt who didn’t think he or she was the only person who could run the country?
Janet at the OO is VERY excited by a 55-45 thrashing. Evidently, that’s a good thing for Turnbull and it’s “Game on”. She manages to write her article without mentioning that Turnbull is still 10% behind on the precious Newspoll. Am I reading a different poll to everyone else. There’s almost no bounce. I went for 54 TPP Labor as did most people. They didn’t even get that. There’s no honeymoon. Even Palin got a honeymoon.
And more importantly, did the Rolls-Royce Marsupial team beat the Ford PollBludger team?
In Janet’s defence Diogenes – she wrote that yesterday before the poll came out (not that she would have changed a word anyhow).
Turnbull: a banker demanding that bankers be bailed out.
The Liberal way.
Max a leader who thinks he knows it all would lead this country down the gurgler before you could blink, one of Rudd’s strengths is that he consults and gives weight to the experts in each field, something the rodent had problems with in his last term, Rudd is in constant contact with the reserve bank and the treasury and they sing from the same sheet, the rodent and smirk were given warning after warning from the reserve bank but they knew better–the result inflation out of controll and soaring interest rate rises, one after the other, you’d think they’d have taken notice after the first couple, they knew better.
Grog i’ve made a pact with myself to do my blood pressure a favour and not go to the newsltd sites today lol.
The US financial system has been rocked in the last week. That’s probably why Turnbull now has a slight lead over Rudd on the economy. The fact that, despite the economic negatives, the Libs haven’t picked up more of a bounce does not bode well for Turnbull in the long run.
Although, if we are headed for a Great Depression scenario, Rudd’s going to have his work cut out.
Also Diogenes, last Thrusday over at Larv Prodeo, they had a contest to see what the headlines would be for the newspoll. I said if it was 54-46 The Oz would go with “It’s Game On!”
Grog
She wrote it yesterday. The OO owns Newspoll which was published yesterday. If the Newspoll would have supported her pathetic argument in any way, it would have been included as they would already have known the numbers. Looks like you win the cookies at LP.
It’s game on now for Kevin Rudd
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has met more than his match in Malcolm Turnbull.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/game_on/
Turnbull really needs to get his sh!t together and stop sounding like an idiot. If I can find this in a couple of minutes in the NYT, why can’t he? Perhaps he should be in New York where it’s all happening. Foreign banks with exposure to the US meltdown are now included in the bailout. The Australian government ie the taxpayers do not need to pay out. If the banks want/need/deserve a handout, they can go to Paulson, who’s looking a lot like Father Christmas.
Foreign Banks Hope Bailout Will Be Global
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/business/22global.html?_r=2&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Today’s sharemarket opening has been delayed an hour ASIC is to make a statement shortly.
It is not reality or what we think but how the public perceive that the polls record. They see Turnbull has highly arrogant which is real problem for him as they also think he is untrustworthy. A nasty combination to have in the public mind I would have thought.
Turnbull’s assault on the markets again is truly irresponsible and highlights that the Libs wouldn’t mind taking the economy down if they could if it meant getting a few points in the polls. The markets have not mentioned, asked for or need billions pumped into from the government. Turnbull is in fact one of those bankers who make money trading paper and speculation.
I take issue with anyone who says Costello was even a good Treasurer. Having presided over a period of huge revenues from the global boom, nothing to do with anyone, he sat back and did nothing at all. Standing at the till taking the in the money is not being a financial manager or Treasurer. Instead he and his friend let the structure of this nation fall behind leaving it to Labor to have rebuild our infrastructure and education system. And now in this ecomic down turn are we going to suffer because of Costello’s laziness?
Right. I think I’ve pinned the consensus on this blog down:
AC Neilson is rogue (their last pre-election poll was an outlier). 52:48 is too close a result for a genius PM and his wonderful government as they have clearly captivated the nation with competence and brilliant policy initiatives. The Messianic Rudd has permanently altered the political landscape in favour of the Labor Party (just push aside the ALP’s atrocious performance at every single voting-poll since the election). The Libs should never again hope to see a favourable opinion poll, let alone gain government.
Newspoll is right on the mark because it shows Labor well ahead. Furthermore, given these precarious economic times, the public is quite rightly pinning most of the blame on Howard and Costello and falling into Rudd / Swan’s arms because they clearly have a well-formulated plan to save us from falling into the global quagmire
That’s the way the cookie tends to crumble AC. The Labor Governments invariably see Australia through the bad times and the Liberals when times are good and no great level of competence is needed.
A-C, umm could you please put a link in for Rudd’s/ALP atrocious performance at every single voting poll since the election, i must have blinked and missed it.
AC @ 71,
I think you have posted on the wrong site.
Either that or you have read the posts far more differently than I have!
No 72
Rubbish steve.
From my understanding in order to qualify for the bail-out you need to be based in the U.S, the FT-Asia yesterday had an outline of the proposed bill.
No 70
Talk about a beat up TP! Have you already forgotten Swan’s obscene remarks about the inflation genie being out of the bottle in January? What sort of responsible Treasurer would ever do that?!
Here it is again, this time from Samantha Maiden at teh OO, who really is a cretin.
It’s the Hunting of the Snark all over. “If I say it three times it’s true.”
A 1% shift is easily within the MOE. 55%-45% is an absolute thrashing. But Turnbull has been “buoyed” by a 1% shift.
The Senator must be reading different polls than I am! Also, what leadership team?
Turnbull hasn’t even named his front bench yet!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370495.htm
mexicanbeemer
That was initially the case but Paulson has “reconsidered his position”.
Fronm the article I linked above;
Merchant Banker – Merchant Greed Broker. Does Malcom represent what the problem was.
There must be a bunch of blonde type jokes to come from this surely.
As Possums said both polls are in complimentary orbits.
I still don’t buy the Turnbull better econmic manager figures and, that makes me ponder the sample. We knew he was a merchant banker when Treasurer, surley more beneficial to his polls in that role.
Anyway all the more interesting.
Lets re-cap why has the PM been overseas eight times! I can’t recall any that clearly were not needed.
Steve, change that to “Labor Government invariably *take* Australia through bad times and the Liberals clean up the mess – ie Kennett, Greiner, Howard etc and it’ll be more plausible.
Judith, you must have been sleeping as opposed to blinking.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/06/gippsland-by-el.html
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/06/gippsland-by–1.html
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2008/
http://news.smh.com.au/national/labor-hanging-tough-in-local-elections-20080914-4g10.html
Diogenes you gota love that though, ‘Kevin 747′ brilliant play on words.
Hell if 07 can stick maybe 747 can?
GP,
Wouldn’t be one that regularly spoke about a financial “tsunami”, prior to the last election by any chance?
Diogenes! considering how open the rest of the proposals were it looks like the U.S Treasury is now a blank cheque for any Financial company!
If that is correct where is the need for Banks to show any sort of constrant in their lending practices, with the changes does that now meanany Bank regardless of domestic economy can get a bail-out.
Re: Greiner “cleaning up the mess”
Unfortunately, thanks to NSW Labor the state needs a fumigation opposed to a cleanup. But I guess according to Steve, Carr, Iemma, Rees etc etc should be credited for “taking the state through bad times.”
AC just tell me in four years time if WA is the leading state in economic indicators. Most unlikely I’d suggest, but time will tell.
That “Kevin 747″ thing has been splattered across the internet in the past couple of days by Liberal tr#lls.
They probably think it looks better than the Kevin 737″ label that has been getting around for a number of weeks.
Liberal HQ has probably done a focus group thingy and decided it comes across making Rudd look as though he is following the lead set by Howie. Engaging in OS trips just for the sake of it.
Glen
While I disagree with the argument of Kevin 747, it’s very smart politics. Lots of voters never get OS and if Kev’s been 8 times in less than a year, it doesn’t go down well. There’s something called “stickiness” in marketing and Kevin 747 is a great catchy line to make the idea stick. I hope he comes back with something from his financial meetings in New York.
No 68
The article is ambiguous as to which foreign banks would be included in the bailout. Either way, it would be inappropriate for the US Government to be bailing out foreign banks.
The fact that banks are being bailed out at all is also outdated Keynesian lunacy.
Or perhaps the Leader of the Opposition (and ex-Treasury spokesman) who has today suggested our banks need urgent bailing out, and who last week was insinuating that Medibank Private was approaching bankruptcy?
No 81
The Shadow Treasurer hardly gets as much airtime as the Leader of the Opposition. You’re just skittish because your beloved ALP took a hit.
No 89
It’s just an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.
Steve,
I’m not game enough to predict WA’s economic performance four years from now.
What I am confident enough to say is that it would undoubtedly be far worse if Labor won and their idiotic “uranium ban” policy was enacted.
No 94
Agreed A-C. Banning uranium mining was a reckless concession to attract Greens voters.
93 ”It’s just an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.”
GP, Just yesterday afternoon you were telling us that the trip wasn’t an issue. Of course it is an issue in the minds of conservatives, but somewhere between the flack over not visiting Japan and Turnbull’s holiday in Venice that only finished last weekend, I doubt it is going to go anywhere.
mexicanbeemer @ 85,
Geoff Elliott in the Oz has a really good article on the current US plan and just what the ramifications are for the global financial system.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bush_rescue_plan_has_it_backwards
This explains the problem and the shortcomings of the proposed solutions and who will pay in the end (the ordinary taxpayer) and who benefits most (the big end of town & the wealthy)
No 96
The trip is not an issue. But that does not preclude the fact that it is an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.
Crikey. If that is a glancing blow – 1 percentage point on 2pp, and the Opposition Leader on 28% PPM – qualifies as a “hit”, I’d love to see a haymaker.
When it boils down to it, Turnbull agrees with this trip. He has to or else his own trip earlier on this year, and its justification that “face to face” contact is essential, would seem dopey. So the argument here is old beer: “Rudd takes too many trips in general”. This might have a certain resilience to those who think a package holiday in Bali or a week in New Zealand are the trips of a lifetime, but we know that Rudd’s overseas assignments are anything but holidays, for all concerned. No cricket, no tennis, no romantic walks along Cable Beach at taxpayers’ expense. All work, starting a 6am every day. So much so that the accompanying journos whinge about the pace.
Rudd’s trip was planned well before the $hit hit the fan economically, true, but this just shows his foresight and political genius in anticipating that New York would be the place to be in late September, 2008. Contrast this with Turnbull’s self-indulgent sojurn in the luxurious precincts of Venice only recently. I wonder how many senior financial experts Mal spoke to on that trip? Perhaps he picked up some fiscal tips from his gondolier? LOL
98″… it is an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.”
Luckily we’ve seen none of this aggrandising behaviour from the Opposition on this issue, isn’t it?
GP,
The ALP have been consistent in their uranium policy stance (although the 3 mines policy was a concession) since before the Greens even existed as a political Party, so there were no Greens to pander to then although Labor don’t mind a Greens preference flow now.
Julie bishop just announced on ABC radio as likely Shadow Treasurer.
Perhaps she can go to New York too, and stare them down?
Kapow – gotcha GP.
No 103
Read No 98.
Rudd’s stroke of genius in banning short trading has resulted in a surge on the ASX, almost back to 5000 points. The only whingers are the slick “investment consultants” who now can’t corrupt the market. They’ll have to hold onto those shares they thought would make them richer. No Turnbull bailout for them.
Rudd has very good reason to be concerned at developments in the US and possible flow-on effects on a global scale.
Lots of good links here also.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bush_rescue_plan_has_it_backwards
GP
Setting aside the issue of whether a bailout should happen or not, isn’t there a danger if the US don’t bail out foreign banks with big stakes in the US that the foreign banks will become uncompetitive and have to pull out of America? I don’t know the exposure of Oz banks is (I heard CBA was abuot $150M) but they must be looking at “downsizing” their US operations.
I take it you’re ignoring the Newspoll.
104 – yeah, two bob each way. How clever.
No 105
There was no stroke of genius. Australia was simply following the lead of the US and UK.
No 107
If these foreign banks are worried about becoming uncompetitive, they should be lobbying their own governments for assistance, not the US Treasury.
Notice that the US Secretary of Treasury was a Goldman Sachs, merchant banker in a past life.
No wonder Turnbull feels an affinity to him and wants to put some insurance in place to bail out the big end of town in the event of a major flow on effect in the Australian financial markets.
Pity though about the ordinary taxpayers who will have to carry all the pain.
Or more realistically, more pain than they are having to carry now.
GP – Malcolm has done the same trick by essentially arguing that in isolation this trip by Rudd is important but not if you include all the trips he has done, and this bloke expects us to buy that?
GP
Evidently Oz is leading the world on “short selling”. And I’m happy to look stupid so here goes. What the hell is “short selling”?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24380714-5014000,00.html
No 112
The outrageousness of this bailout cannot be overstated. It will cost more than the Iraq war.
GP @ 111,
I don’t think it has anything to do with competitiveness but more to do with their US branches having a degree of exposure to the meltdown effect which has the spread of risk directly affecting them too.
Crikey, can you imagine a budget handed down by Eyes Bishop?
All the big concessions to business and employers. WorkChoices-type tax cuts for employees: mean, miserable and humiliating.
Just one look at those menacing features, and battlers are like to shudder, “Keep your bloody tax cuts.”
A-C, i’m still waiting for that link to Rudd’s/ALP’s atrocious showing in the polls since the election, i’m politely asking you to put your facts that i obviously missed up.
No 114
As I understand, it is where investors sell stock they don’t down in the hope that they buy it back for a cheaper cost later on. I’m just as confused as anyone else on the details, though.
The difference between the Australian ban and the bans in the US and UK is that all short-selling is prohibited; whereas overseas the ban only extends to financial stocks.
We still have no idea of the effect the global derivatives market will have on all this yet.
There is a strong possibility of a total collapse of the global financial system but the powers at be are keeping mum on this at present.
No 119 should read “they don’t own”
No 116
Even so, it is not the responsibility of the US Treasury to be bailing out foreign entities.
If Rudd didn’t go to NY this time around the noise would be twice as loud and long. You can just imagine it!
How much then was Turnbull a part of the melt-down problem? I would assume that it was all the merchant banker tics sucking the blood of the body that is the systemic problem here. Should he be asked if he has made any profits from short selling, advised short selling or used short selling in anyway (short sellinig the new communism). Wouldn’t be nice to hear that it him and his kind that has bought financial markets to the brink.
Alternate names spring to mind for Turnbull and his type:
Merchant Greed
Merchant Wrecker
Turnbull Greed
Short Sell Malcolm
On the other hand I am hoping Turnbull will come up with some more moderate policies and once and for all dump all elements of Workchoices ideology. But I doubt that his masters will allow that unfortunately. Just imaging the screaming that will go on in Minchin’s office if Rudd wants to bring in increased regulatory frames works as the USA might adopt (if any and if what we have is not adequate).
The Age headline today read “New leader puts coalition in front”. Guess it must have been a Clayton’s lead (the lead you have when you haven’t really got a lead) because the story then went on to say that “the government retains an election winning lead”.
The big risk for Turnbull now is that if this is something of an outlier result (a strong possibility considering the Newspoll figures), the headline for the next Age Poll could easily be very deflating for him.
Why not? It was the lax regulation and open slather lending practices endorsed by the Treasury and supported by their stupidity in setting interest rates too low for too long that set up all the conditions in the first place, for this mess to turn into the total shambles that it is now.
No 123
The hysteria coming out of both yours and Gillard’s mouth, pertaining to Workchoices, is just absurd given that Gillard’s “Forward with Fairness” legislation is simply Workchoices Lite. George Megalogenis articulated the point quite well on Insiders yesterday.
“Forward with Fairness” does not repeal Workchoices.
Thomas
Turnbull is unlikely to discard WorkChoices-type policy.
1) It is in the Liberals’ DNA as the party that governs for business and employers.
2) Julie Bishop (deputy leader?) is very pro.
3) Turnbull has the job on the conditional acceptance of the right. He jeopardises his position by jettisoning the right’s pet policy.
4) Economically Turnbull himself is of the right, so likely to be pro anyway.
It makes you wonder why American traders were throwing such a tantrum when the banning of short selling was mentioned there. They lose one of their toys to make money, but making money in a way that produces nothing. In other words a partial greed machine.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370541.htm
No 125
Scorpio, you do realise that you are now blaming Treasury for the irresponsibility of the banks. Why should the taxpayer subsidise the gambles made by banks? Free market philosophy entails individual responsibility and hence, whilst the Treasury may have had relaxed policy settings, the banks ultimately made their beds.
119 GP there are no tricky details with short selling it is as you say: Selling now, hoping to buy again cheaper in the future and pocket a profit.It is a mirror reflection of buying cheap and hoping to sell dearer in the future.
Thomas p,
Explain the moral difference between short selling (and hoping that the buy-back price is lower so you make a profit) and long-selling (hoping to maximise the sale price). They are both profit-inclined and therefore as evil and greedy (to use your socialist-thinking) as each other.
No 128
LOL what hypocrisy.
I bet in the next breadth you’ll criticise Howard for all the welfare spending, despite your allegations of governing solely for “business and emloyers”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/paul-sheehan/mighty-hangover-from-debt-binge/2008/09/21/1221935447612.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Can the leader of the opposition guarantee that he has never engaged in the destructive and despicable practice of Short Selling in order to make money for himself or others?
People should be quizzing him on this. And he ought to be truthful otherwise the cover up is the bigger story. LoL
No 199:
This is why it is a stroke of genius. It punishes the lurk merchants (Turnbull’s spiv mates) and rewards the productive.
No 132
A-C, in TP’s world, the real bastion of greed is the Government. He will never admit it though.
New shadow bench:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370720.htm
Bishop v Swan
Rodd v Albanese
Coonan v Smith
Pearce v Tanner
sorry make that Robb! not Rodd
GP,
I hope my 134 answers your 130.
There are countless links and information to totally refute your statement.
Would you like my to post a dozen or so?
One relies on prosperity. The other relies – and often corruptly promotes – misery. Merchant bankers understand all this intimately. That is why they are such miserable individuals, especially when they are crying poor, encouraging their pet politicians to spruik for a bailout of their woes. These are the heroes of Big End Of Town, Turnbull touts all. They are all gutless wonders, unable to take the consequences of their mischievious behavior. They feed off society, holding it to blackmail when their insidious tricks fall flat.
And the Libs elected one of them to lead them? LOL
Working in the financial industry myself I can attest that short selling is regulated in many different ways from country to country, and can be an absolute PAIN with all the rules that can apply. Still, traders like it (for obvious reasons) and so it has flourished.
If traders like it then I don’t.
Grog that is funny ‘People Skills Abbott’ retains communities, no nearer to the action he craves or is he a modern day Brier Rabbit?
(112)
“Pity though about the ordinary taxpayers who will have to carry all the pain”
Interesting Scorpio that the latest Rasmussen poll in the US taken in the early stages of the meltdown showed that only 7% of respondents were in favour of a tax payer funded bail out. 65% thought Wall St should bear the losses.
I dare say, our home grown taxpayers would be about as equally thrilled with any such plan proposed here..
No 136
LOL more uninformed nonsense. Short selling is no different to any other risk made on the stock market. The only reason why it was banned temporarily was to ensure that investors don’t profit from or spur the collapse of more banks.
The cause of the current crisis is ultimately due to stupid lending practices by the banks, not short trading.
You prove my point. Interesting that, from not knowing what short trading was a few posts ago, you now set yourself out as an investment expert.
If it wasn’t spiv that were gaming the market, please explain in simple terms why Macquarie bank went down 35 points and up 40 point in 48 hours if short selling wasn’t involved.
146 The only reason why it was banned temporarily was to ensure that investors don’t profit from or spur the collapse of more banks.
Not quite. Short selling is being banned because it tends to drive prices down GP adding to instability in financial markets.
actually just having fun with turnbulls past
No 141
Sorry, but more nonsense.
Strictly speaking that is not correct. A short seller DOES NOT OWN the stock they are selling, as opposed to someone who actually buys in the hope of a stock price going up. This increases the risk significantly. There are large regulatory requirements for short selling as opposed to buying. The crash in ‘29 was blamed on short selling when there were far less restrictions on how it could be done.
150:
So says the instant expert. Please answer the question posed in 147.
Funny isn’t it. Before the election, according to the Liberals, the big threat to The Economy was supposed to come from Labor and their frontbench: those “union bosses” etc. Now they’re admitting the danger is from capitalists on the right, not hairy-armed types on the left.
this dang person must be dragging down labor’s primaries, why doesn’t she just go away!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/im-not-snow-white-but-i-have-feelings-neal/2008/09/22/1221935499151.html
Yes. And now we must bail them out to save ourselves. I wonder how many more times in the future American excesses – wars, stock market crashes etc. – are going to wreck ordinary lives in the rest of the world.
These are dangerous people, full of themselves for no good reason.
steve – yep his blog did him in I suspect.
and make that Hockey v Tanner
GP is off reading up on trading practices in Wikipedia. LOL
GP @ 150: Explain why, please. Comment not worth making otherwise.
Bronwyn Bishop dropped. Sob.
No 147
I’m not pretending to be an expert. I found out the information from doing a few google searches.
Generally, from what I have read, I don’t believe it is a corrupt practice because it provides liquidity and capital when the markets are stable. Prudential regulators have done the right thing by banning it until the market stabilises.
GP, I’m surprised the other young Libs haven’t explained to you that if sellers predominate in a market(short or long) then prices tend to get driven down.
I was also wrong about Robb going to infrastructure (curses the “more to follow” media!!)
But I love this:
Sounds suspisciously like the he didn’t get treasury so we’ll give him what’s left portfolio.
And it shows
If you buy a stock the best return you can get is unlimited as the possible increase in the price of the stock is unlimited, while the worst you can do is if the stock falls to zero and you just lose your original investment
If you sell short the best return you can get is if the price of the stock falls to 0, but the worst you can do is unlimited as the possible increase in the price of the stock is unlimited!
Short selling clearly has more possible risk
Who got IR and Health?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/08-09-22%20turnbull%20shadow%20ministry%20attachment.pdf
Here’s the list:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/08-09-22%20turnbull%20shadow%20ministry%20attachment.pdf
is Bronwyn Bishop still in parliament? i thought she’d faded into the sunset, i hav’nt heard a squeak from her since the election–actually well before then come to think of it.
No 163
Of course, the risk is not the same and I was incorrect to assert as much.
But to characterise the whole practise of short selling as corrupt is going much too far.
you beat me to it James.
intersting bit on the travel aspect:
Also Turnbull’s bit about Rudd being overseas more often than Smith is wrong,, But hey I know it doesn’t matter. It’s only fact.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24381447-662,00.html
Hurray for Michael Keenan in IR now that’s a big promotion.
He’ll have his work cut out for him against Julia though, good on the lad.
Seems quite a few Senators getting promoted…
shadow IR is Keenan?? anyone know who he is??
Also Glen it gets third lowest billing… interesting
James J 165 is that link saying there has been a political death of Barnaby and a resurrection of Truss as Leader of the Nationals?
Poor Michael Keenan, up against Gillard. That won’t be pretty.
Barnaby Joyce is leader of the Nats in the Senate but not in the Shadow Ministry. Nigel Scull-it-down is still Nats Deputy Leader, but not Leader in the Senate. Go figure.
Turnbull’s strategy, notwithstanding the demotion of Nelson supporters, appears to be to groom the parliamentary freshmen. I can’t say I disagree with that approach because it is a distinct break from the past.
That said, Abbott is very much wasted in his current portfolio.
I wouldn’t call it corrupt, but bloody hell it’s damn close. It allows traders to manipulate the market and devalue stocks without any justification for it. After the 29 crash they brought in rules that you couldn’t short sell on a downtick for this very reason (and then inexplicably removed them again last year!). I reckon they will have to reinstate it because the events of recent weeks show just how devestating short selling can be in unstable financial times.
MP for Stirling i helped out the lad during his 2004 campaign a real good sort.
That is interesting Grog is there a reason for the way the list was prepared i dunno.
I wouldnt be so worried Julia will be surprised Keenan takes no guff and is quick on his feet, and he’ll need to be.
Keenan is an up and comer in WA politics. He’s got Stirling by about 2%, so he’ll have to keep an eye on the home front.
So Julia is now up against Pyne and Keenan.
Also what happened to Dutton??? Did he get chucked?
Dutton got Health and Aging he’ll be way out of his depth there.
Abbott is a waste of space in any portfolio!
Oh no Dutton got health i missed that
Judith, they keep her locked up in a cupboard. The keys have long since been “carelessly” misplaced.
If dropping BB was a no-brainer, would appreciate comments on Coonan in cabinet. Having lived in NSW for 21 months and through one federal election (2007), I would rate HC as also a massive waste of space.
Grog @ 156,
Tanner will wipe the floor with Hockey who hasn’t got a hope
…….
The front bench now looks awfully liberal, lots of wets in there now that Mal’s taken over.
Could be a good thing.
Glen, Pyne is no contest, isnt he the dill who whined that some pollies out to dinner made a bit of fun at him when he first went to Canberra? somebody joked to him and he took offense and complained to the meeja, i’ve only been able to visualise him as Christopher Whine ever since lol.
Hang on Glen, GP says there are no factions, or was it you?
Not sure how the list is done Glen, though these things do generally have a bit of symbolism to them eg Bishop comes second, followed by Truss.
I’m no fan of Coonan. Thought she was certainly part of the old guard. At 60 I thought she might give way for the younger breed..
That’s being generous
You can be guaranteed of one thing, the MSM will see them as the best thing since sliced bread.
I never said there werent factions. Of course the Libs have factions, we just dont publicise that we do.
That’s one reason ill never go into politics, factions.
factions are fun
Sorry Glen, it must have been GP. I agree with your sentiments re factions.
It’s the fact they are on the same team but then there’s a team within a team and they spend more time fighting against the other team inside their team that their team does badly.
Humphrey Appleby would be proud of that definition.
Sophie Mirrabella get early childhood women and youth. sort of going up against Maxine Mckew and Kate Ellis (sort of, unlikely there’ll be many QT questions)
Fierrevantti-Welles- is Parl Sec for immigration.
Glen also on Yes Min connections, when ealier Adam asked who got Ir and Health, I was v tempted to ask “has anyone got brains”?
No. 160:
The instant Google expert! GP, if you’re not an expert then calling others’ comments “nonsense” is a non sequiter. It’s really quite easy to poke holes in your arguments.
QT coming up. This is where Rudd is supposedly going to be trounced on the wconomy. Libs finally on the comeback trail. Get ready for a Master Class from Turnbull. LOL.
Grog…classic.
watching QT – Bishop and Hockey haven’t changed their positions behind Turnbull
No 197
And if you did some cursory reading, you’d note that short trading isn’t corrupt. There are benefits to it. Even the financial regulator in the UK recognised as much. It is only problematic, generally, in a bear market and the regulators have thus taken appropriate action.
Your dislike for the practise arises out of your general disdain for capitalism, which is equally as easy to poke holes through.
Turnbull off on a tangent, waxing lyrical on the Pakistan bombing. So far he’s spoken twice as long a Rudd.
First question from Turnbull (and I paraphrase):
Q. “Will Rudd meet with Turnbull to discuss bi-partisanship on the global financial process?”
A. “Pass the Budget.”
Short selling is not corrupt, that is like saying people who buy shares to push up the price is corrupt. Short selling does provide additional way to invest and give more liquidity to the market
Unfortunitely, there are so many people with margin loans atm that if the value of a shares falls, margin calls forces these people to sell the shares, which drives the prices lower, causing other margin calls. Short selling can cause a snowball effect of making money for the short seller at the expense of the margin loan holders
This is not a left or right policy, it is just caused by really greedy people, who have no regards for other people
GP, your original statement was also that it was no more risky than any other trading practice, which was shown to be utterly false. Just quit while you are behind and stop trying to talk on something you clearly know very little about.
glen @ 185
It would be a good thing if it lasts, but I bet it doesn’t. There is another round of right wing nonsense to be had yet, Mitchin and the Abbot will see to that.
It would be interesting to know how unsettling is the presence of Costello. He sat waiting for Nelson to stuff up, and now does likewise to Turnbull. He reminds me of a Cheshire Cat: he’s all but gone; only the smirk lingers as a spooky force.
Because accountants mark assets to market, short trading is a very dangerous practice in a bear market and very worth while in a bull market.
Bishop’s first question as shadow treasurer was to Rudd. (it was an easy one… but geez, oh for a PJK to put this rabble on the shadow bench in its place.)
No 203
Dario, I am entitled to talk on anything I wish until William says otherwise.
If you don’t mind making a bigger fool of yourself of course…
That’s all good an well GP, but don’t you get embarrassed sometimes?
Please do, because it’s funny!
It would be lovely if Swan sat down and ceased his bumbling diatribe.
No 210
I recognised I was wrong when I said the risk with short selling was the same as any other stock market risk. I don’t believe my other contentions were factually incorrect.
If others want to contend that the practice is corrupt, please make an argument. Don’t attempt to shut down the debate because you think capitalism is evil.
Has someone got a link to the HOR question time?
I’ve got that many links now I have trouble finding anything.
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/mediaplayer.aspx?mediaURL=http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx2/hms1v_100K.asx&CaptionFile=d:\inetpub\wwwroot\livebroadcasting\caption1.txt&CaptionTitle=&type=1
link:
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/
Thanks Grog.
If tax is legalized theft, and execution is legalized murder, then short selling is legalized corruption.
Brilliant!
Albanese dubs Turnbull “The Merchant Of Venice”.
ROTFL.
No 218
Do describe the moral turpitude involved in short selling.
#219, BB, that almost brought the House down. Yes, that tag will dog Bully from now on.
Did GP actually say this? I hope not.
220
Pardon me while I Google “turpitude”.
Which particular character in the Merchant of Venice would Turnbull be? Launcelot Gobbo?
Shylock?
224 Very, very good TP
No 222
Tax is legalised theft.
Regrettably so. I think he must have been on the turpitudes at the time, though.
The Fibs media cheer squad hasn’t stopped their campaigning since before the election. They have been at it with a vengence ever since pretending they didn’t really lose at all. yet still we have the 10 point gap in polls. So the question is what will happen to the polls when Labor go into campaign mode themselves before next election?
Still swiggin’, apparently.
Please don’t rise to the bait on GP’s “taxation is theft” silliness. He is just tr*lling because he likes being considered a naughty boy.
No 231
LOL Adam. The reality is that your best refutation was the theory of social contracts. A theory! Dear oh dear.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
Why don’t you provide a logical argument to back up your case. You seem willing to demand arguments from others (213), why don’t you hold yourself to your own standards?
The silver tailed Merchant of Venice. It might stick.
The danger is that he might try. This will be designed to take attention from the absolute pasting that The Merchant Of Venice is getting in QT. Haven’t heard a peep out of him since that delightful put-down.
Antony Albanese…. all is forgiven.
Yeah Adam, GP isn’t convinced by theories, for example, the Theory of Evolution and the Theory of Relativity are wrong according to GP because they are only theories.
GP doesn’t realise that the best arguments for liberalism are also based on the social contract theory going back to Kant (people are ends not means).
234 – Bill Leak might have fun with it
No 233
I already did in previous threads. There’s no need to repeat them in light of your abject indolence.
While watching QT on Sky the news headlines are sliding across the bottom of the screen. One headline the results of a poll. Given that there were two polls out today, guess which one they left out and guess what areas of the poll they did mention they concentrated on.
It appears that Glen Milne was on the “turpitudes” last night too.
Today’s effort is nothing but a “cut & paste” of stuff that he has written over the past fortnight.
I didn’t provide a link because it is not worth reading but can be found on the Oz online.
One headline the results of a poll – should read “One headline HAS the results of a poll
Oh OK, you have no argument. I guessed as much.
Can we move on please.
The Opposition are copping it in Senate QT too.
Yes please William.
That record is badly worn by now after the needly got stuck in the same grove for so long.
That’s rich, coming from Google Boy. The world’s biggest financial crisis and he didn’t know what selling short meant.
Joe Hockey, asks a trick question onwhich will come first as a result of a fall in govt. revenue due to the financial crisis: slower growth or loss of jobs.
Hit into the parking lot for 6 by Rudd, who explains that loss of government revenues as a result of slower growth is due to…. boom-tish!… slower growth.
Has The MOV introduced Brendas pensioners bill yet?
Could come in handy if they want to move into the Middle Eastern wheat market.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370582.htm?section=justin
No 246
I knew what it meant. Did you?
Only after you googled it GP
Of course. It’s why I knew you were bluffing.
Oh, dear, the “better economic managers” baton just got dropped by Turnbull.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370892.htm
Can we move on from this as well.
It means you have no argument?
Things aren’t going too well for the Fibs in the Senate either, seems like even Bob Brown is questioning their tactics and economic abilities.
“Greens Leader Bob Brown has also criticised the Opposition, saying it has mishandled the Bill.
“The Opposition’s procedure in here today is a debacle,” he said.
“[It is] extraordinary to race such an important bill, with such a multi-billion dollar price tag attached to it.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370976.htm?section=justin
ABC Midday news featured a segment about how the solar business has boomed since the Budget despite the wild claims made at the time that the $100k/household means test would cripple the industry. It included one solar business owner who’s increased his workforce from 15 last year to 120 now. Interestingly, he made a very strong point about the rebate being too generous.
So how is the ABC promoting the on-line video of the segment on its home page? With a nice pic and this caption:
No doubt leaving headline only readers with the impression that the industry has indeed been “crushed.” I wonder is that was the intention? Stupid question!
Turnbull is learing about the enormity of the task ahead of him. Swatted away with backhanders by several ministers, he sits there like a stunned mullet wondering what hit him.
“Master Class”? “Game On?” More like “Trivial Pursuit.”
Turnbull should be an easy target.
Silver Tail, Merchant of Venice, Merchant Banker, out of touch, distrusted, arrogant and blessed with the habit of talking like a pompous toff and the over use of hyperbole and, hamstrung by the right with the Vulture Costello perched at the back.
However the Howard media will be trying its hardest to create the opposite view – however it will be hard because it would not reinforce any reality.
However I would have hopes for him without the likes of Minchin, Costello and Bishop etc around.
This stupid pensions stunt is just suicidal, Turnbull must be cursing Nelson for leaving him with this turkey of a stunt. By my count nine members of Turnbull’s Shadow Cabinet were members of the Howard Cabinet which rejected a rise for pensioners when Brough proposed it last year. Last year the pensioners were fine, this year they’re living on dog biscuits and it’s all Rudd’s fault. Give us a break.
Looks like Feilding has introduced amendments to give all pensioners a $30 a week increase. The Greens have also introduced amendments.
Now the Libs will have to vote against the amendments and argue why some pensioners are more equal than others or find another few billion.
Political idiots – again.
Turnbull on his front bench line up.
But I loved this comment
That’s just the flies hanging around the decaying corpse of the once great Liberal Party.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370720.htm
I went out for 15 minutes – what’s Mezmerelda banging on about?
Another good one by Kocsonya:
The idea that just because the US govt is bailing out its banks that we should be doing the same needs some serious analysis by our economic journalists. It is such a stupid and reckless position for the Opposition to take. If these clowns don’t have this stupid ‘policy’ laughed down then there is something seriously wrong with our media.
Socialised loss and individual gain – just the kind of combo a merchant banker would love. Makes me want to puke.
Can someone tell me whether the Opposition position is to suspend short selling or not?
Swan dismissed Mesmerelda with considerable ease in QT today.
The Opposition’s call for bipartisanship on economic issues is ridiculous as well. Yes Miss Bishop, please come and give Wayne Swan all your sage economic advice on how to fix the global financial crisis – lord knows the ALP wouldn’t be able to make it through without your worldly experience.
I’m afraid the school ma’am has exactly shone in her performance so far.
A veritable lawyers’ picnic! And what a great time to elect a merchant banker as your leader! Is there a more popular profession in the western world right now?
Oh, and I just caught up with my reading in this thread, so I have a quick question for you Generic Person:
If you think the US govt bail out of banks is “outrageous” – then surely you would be condemning Turnbull and Bishop’s call for the Australian govt to do the same thing?
What do you call a collection of lawyers?
I dont know what the oppositions position is on short selling. I couldn’t quite understand it but it seems they were against it since Rudd was giving them a lesson on it.
An argument of lawyers
I think Ms Mesmer was trying to blame Rudd for the stock market being closed, for a whole hour, this morning.
RIP. The end of the Merchant Banker of Venice.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4800550.ece
Yes, Merchant or Investment Banks or better known as the Casinos of Wall St is finally laid to RIP. As I indicated earlier, if I were Bully, i wouldn’t spruik my background as an ex Merchant Banker, especially not with Goldman Sachs. They stink like the canals of Venice.
Whatever it was Rua, it sounded like an economics 102 assignment.
Didn’t it go up 4%? Seems she should be praising whatever was done…
By the comments made by Mesmerelda in her speech (where she offered lessons to Wayne Swan will the PM was away) she is now saying that the Australian govt should have banned short selling on all financials and not just ‘nakeds’. Mind you, they went further and banned short selling on all stock (although existing hedges were exempt) so I’m not quite sure what she was complaining about.
Are you guys selling the naked Mesmerelda short?
TP,
A ‘parasite” of lawyers.
A ‘wunch” of bankers????
You sure that’s what she said? They did ban naked short sells…
Never mind. Just checked the ASIC website and it seems they banned all nakeds temporarily but the legislation that will be passed soon will only ban them in the cash equity market.
I’m not up to speed on Coonan’s Bill to increase the Single? Aged pension. Will the extra $30/week be on top of the $27 increase they’ve already received this year, or are they just huffing and puffing about a miserable $3/week? Probably a stupid question, but you never know with that lot.
Thomas Paine @ 271 -
Perhaps the Opposition goggled it just before QT and the ‘I’m Feeling Lucky’ button sent them to GP’s learned thesis in this thread
Dario:
I think the point she was trying to make in a round-a-bout, confused fashion is that the govt should have done ’something’ sooner so that there wasn’t a delay this morning on the ASX.
A payout of lawyers, and I’m almost afraid to ask, what is naked short selling? (Mercantile dwarfs?)
Forgive me if it’s already been linked, but I just got home and can’t be bothered reading the whole comments thread. Does anyone have a graphic/breakdown of both the Newspoll and/or ACN polls, so I can have a squiz at things like the Greens primary?
naked short selling effectively means you dont own the stock you are selling, and havent sourced that stock to buy anywhere either. A covered short sell means you have sourced the stock to buy and have an agreement for it.
Pretty lame attempt then. The market is up over 4% ffs.
thanks Dario! I wasn’t game to google it, you could image the pics you’d get….
An Cat Mara @ 283:
Naked selling is where the seller sells stock they haven’t actually tangibly borrowed or where they can’t ensure that borrowing could have occurred. It has been pretty much regulated around the world to some extent (somewhat loosely in places), although especially in the US their regulations have been pretty poorly enforced. It’s been a rootin’ tootin’ cowboy time out there!
And obviously I should just leave this to Dario who is quicker and more coherent
Swan might point out in response to the Oppositions desire for a bi-partisan effort on the economy that, it was the Liberal party’s economic thinking that created inflation and accelerating interest rates, wasted the boom, that neglected education, health and infrastructure and left Labor with the task of fixing up their mess and, if they really wanted to be economically responsible, pass the budget measures.
Seems like none of them talk like this anymore, except maybe Gillard.
haha only because I haven’t hit the bottle yet today
this is the results about the leadership in an online poll i do regularly, it’s quite interesting.
http://whatthepeoplewant.nationalforum.com.au:80/archives/003393.html
I believe they’ve banned all categories of short selling for 30 days. However, this and the measures undertaken in the US, are only band aid solutions to this problem.
It hasn’t finished yet, and its not yet clear what will be the full wash up.
But unless and until, speculation on asset proces is curtailed and more importantly, margin lending to allow gearing up to speculate on asset prices, then this whole thing will occur again.
It’s been the same problem time amd time again.
That should read speculation on asset prices.
There’s something nuts about the U.S. treasury selling bonds to China and Japan so that the U.S. government has enough money to buy a heap of bad credit from private banks…
Worse case scenario for the US is if the rest of the World decides to switch to the Euro as the de-facto reserve currency.
This scenario is doomsday for the USA.
I agree ShowsOn – the Land of Believers in Market Forces and We Don’t Want Your Stinkin’ Commie Universal Healthcare is about to socialise a whole pile of private debt. Of course in doing so there are going to be long term consequences both with taxpayer debt and with the fundamental change in perception of govt involvement in the market.
A truly unbelievable position that I don’t think many would have forecast 6 months ago.
You could have seen it coming with the money they wasted on Iraq. These are people who, in their hubris, think they can do anything. God only knows how they’re ever going to pay back those bad debts. The best thing we could do would be to become the most Asia-savvy western nation on Earth just to get out from under their suffocating umbrella…. wait a minute… where have I heard that before? “Most Asia-savvy western nation on Earth”?
More prescience from master strategist, Rudd.
We (by that I mean social liberals, social democrats, democratic socialists) shouldn’t at this point decry their hypocrisy. INSTEAD we should point out to them that what they are doing now demonstrates why we need more and better regulation when the world economy is booming. What has happened is evidence for why complete financial deregulation is wrong.
“Bush himself is the most incompetent and dangerous president in living memory.”
Now I wonder who said these prophetic words?
He might be superceded by President Palin.
ShowsOn @ 300,
“What has happened is evidence for why complete financial deregulation is wrong.”
And plays right into Obama’s hands
…….
Few will go to jail over this. That rankles.
Must the ABC televise the Senate QT…only political junkies would watch it which is why the House of Representatives should be on whenever they sit regardless at 2pm.
Now ive got to step up the tape recorder for midnight…
Had they changed seats on the other side?
To be brutally honest I don’t give a toss about the global financial meltdown, great depression mkII, sub prime, naked shorty stuff.
Its effects on me are a big fat zero.
Lose my job? Don’t have one.
Mortgage? Don’t have one.
Interest rates? No debt.
Super? Cashed in on health grounds
Asset devaluation? Which of my nieces and nephews do I dislike least?
So to all of those greedy bastados who thought they could make money out of debt. tough luck.
What the ABC TV and NewsRadio can broadcast is determined by the Parliament.
So I suggest you fire off an angry email to Speaker Jenkins.
Glen @ 305, If you have cable you can also get QT on Sky News at 2pm. From your initial response though, I am gathering that you only have free to air channels? If not, and you do have cable, Sky ALWAYS shows HOR QT …….
was worried about the OO headline then realised as usual it was Shameaham spin, and the third paragraph told me all I wanted to know:
But Mr Turnbull’s leadership has not changed the relative standing of the parties on primary votes and two-party-preferred support. And he is seen as less trustworthy, much more arrogant and less caring than both Mr Rudd and the former Liberal leader Brendan Nelson.
Samantha Maiden (who seems to get worse and worse) thinks a no-change 2PP since the leadership takeover gives Turnbull a boost. What are these guys on and when is the OO going to employ someone with a sense of perspective and balance
You won’t want to watch it, Glen. Your lot got sliced up as usual.
I assume that Swan got sliced up as usual too then?
That would not be a safe assumption.
Double-LOL…
Coonan introduces Pensioners Bill into the Senate and no-one to second it!
What a joke!
What a stunt!
Qu’elle Flop!
With Swan it generally is.
Jebus glen. I know you prefer the past, in many area’s
… but tape recorders?
dude!
well excuse me for not owning a DVD recorder.
Glen
Swanee explained that because of the legislation passed in June, with L-NP support ASIC has the power to do what it did. There were interjections saying we did not introduce legislation from the Lib rabble, because they did not need it.
Swannee points out that the Govt has been on the ball from day one. Libs play politics hoping the economy goes pear shaped so they can reclaim their rightful position on the treasury benches.
I suppose Rooster failed to explain why he put out 3 different short selling share plans that created confusion with the stock markets.
The Australian on the latest Essential Media survey (which I’m yet to receive).
Glen,
Are DVD’s still around. I thought everything was on line all the time.
You Libs are so 20th Century.
Watched channel 7 news and the Liberal’s friend Mark Reilly. He concentrated on Turnbull and Turnbull’s new pet name for Rudd. Reilly at least had the decency to use the Newspoll figures but couched it in terms of how well Turnbull had done. The figures were shown but with Reilly’s voice over explaining the gains in Turnbull’s numbers and the party’s gains. Never mind that they still showed him and his party a mile behind. No mention of that. Amazing stuff.
Glen
He explained it rather well, things changed overseas so we changed, otherwise the share market would have had the pirahnas of the world playing silly buggers on the ASX.
You mean our friends the Hedge funds have been clipped, ruawake?
Greens candidate Ray Goodlass has been elected to Wagga Wagga City Council!
A great day for the Greens.
A Green on Wagga Council? Wake me up and tell me I’m dreaming.
285
Nick of McEwen
Forgive me if it’s already been linked, but I just got home and can’t be bothered reading the whole comments thread. Does anyone have a graphic/breakdown of both the Newspoll and/or ACN polls, so I can have a squiz at things like the Greens primary?
Nick you can be sure if The Greens don’t get a mention, their support is up.
Newspoll here:-http://newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0906%20Fed%2022-09-08.pdf
And have a look at the light at the end of the tunnel, “The only poll that matters”:-
http://nsw.greens.org.au/media-centre/news-releases/labor-vote-collapses-in-key-areas-2013-greens-boost-numbers-in-nsw-local-govt-elections
“More than 70 Greens candidates have been elected across NSW with breakthroughs occurring in both regional areas and Sydney suburbs,” Ms Rhiannon said.
“The results in the inner city areas of Marrickville and Leichhardt where the Greens outpolled Labor are encouraging for the state election.
“In Marrickville the vote was Greens 40 per cent and Labor 29 per cent. In Leichhardt the vote was Greens 46 per cent and Labor 25 per cent.”
The panic at Sussex Street must be amasing to behold.
margaret
Thanks for the link to the Newspoll pdf, if you look closely the Green support fell from 11% to 10%.
By basic arithmetic Neilson had the Greens at about 8.5%.
My point exactly ruawake.
Talk of economics notwithstanding, the average American punter still won’t vote for Obama, because he’s Muslim and/or black.
Daniel B – Obama is not a Muslim. The Republicans aren’t trying that line overtly, but under the table the usual skullduggers are out there sending chain emails full of lies.
Thankyou Fiz. I didn’t know that.
Fiz,
Don’t respond to the troll crap, please.
And if you do, please do it on the US thread.
William,
Nice segue!
My apologies.
Goodness me Quentin Bryce looked rather frail with Red Kerry.
She did didn’t she! Was a bit surprising…
Ugh, Australian Story is giving more air time to the “Don’t you know who I am” candidate.
GP,
I’m watching “The Force”. Seems to be the same theme on all stations.
love this from the Essential Media survey:
Worryingly for Mr Turnbull only 23 per cent of those surveyed consider him “more honest than most politicians”.
talk about low bar!
Last year I once particiapted in a polling survey done through email (I think news.com.au was invovled) since then every now and then they do new polls. Here’s the results of the latest one on Turnbull (it;s called what the people want – no idea of it’s validity) – plus the numbers are hard to read.
http://whatthepeoplewant.nationalforum.com.au/archives/003393.html
She’s entitled to state her case.
Pity that Kerry screwed up and called her Head of State.
No 342
She is our head of state! You republicans need to rote learn that fact.
SNIP: Cheap shot deleted – The Management.
GP if you continue to talk like a fool, people will have to conclude that you are one.
GP,
My rote learning was:
1 x 1 is 1
2 x 2 is 4
3 x 3 is all Liberals are fascist pigs that should be drowned at birth.
4 x 4 is 16
5 x 5 is 25………….
These undeniable truths always get me through in a crisis.
GP:
The Queen as the sovereign is head of state
Its because of people like you that we’re going to have King Tampon the First as our next one though
Please, not this again (note GP’s mitigating smiley face).
No 345
Oh, I’m the fool? As I’ve previously asked you, explain the constitutional arrangements of Andorra.
Or alternatively, don’t.
GP,
Doesn’t Andorra keep everything in a box?
Or alternatively everyone calm down and watch the Brownlow count.
No 352
I’d rather watch Today Tonight than a pack of useless AFL thugs self-congratulate.
SNIP: See 348 – The Management.
SNIP: See 348 – The Management.
OK, that does it GP, you can knock the ALP and they and tear down Rudd, you can even havea go at Julia; but you’re a non-AFL person?? That’s it, you’re on my list.
No 356
The way I characterise the AFL and Rugby codes in Australia: too much money, too much time.
NO ARGUMENTS!
Didn’t watch Oz Story, but did Neal really say this:
she’s kidding surely? Front bench, she is damn lucky she’s still warming a spot on the back bench.
No 359
Yes, she did really say that.
But she was nonchalant about it anyway. She’s probably happy she hasn’t been expelled from the ALP.
Andorra is a small country in the Pyrenees, between France and Spain. For reasons lost in the mists of feudal history, its joint heads of state, the co-princes, were the Bishop of Urgel in Spain and the Count of Foix in France. The rights of the Count of Foix have now passed to the President of France. Each co-prince nominates a delegate in Andorra who acts as their representative, and the delegates jointly commission the Prime Minister, who actually runs the government.
What exactly does this have to do with the question of who Australia’s head of state?
How embarrassing, is she really the best the Fibs have to offer? LOL. Oh yeah Swanny will be shaking in his boots having to face this genious! I bet he can’t wait for QT tomorrow.
“The new Opposition treasury spokeswoman, Julie Bishop, has been unable to name the official cash interest rate in Australia on her first day in the job.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2371279.htm
GP rote learnt it incorrectly.
I’ve often wondered about Andorra, so I thank Adam for his learned explanation and exempt him from my injunction at 348. With that out of the way, it is now back in force.
Coonan’s Pension Bill has passed the Senate, and we all know it’s fate in the House of Reps
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2371352.htm?section=justin
No 361
Sovereignty is not vested in the Heads of State of Andorra.
Aargh.
365; FC – sounds like an absolute farce:
and
[Greens Leader Bob Brown earlier criticised the Opposition, saying it has mishandled the bill.
"The Opposition's procedure in here today is a debacle," he said.
"[It is] extraordinary to race such an important bill, with such a multi-billion dollar price tag attached to it.”]
geez, they couldn’t even get Fielding and Brown to be supportive…
Methinks Turnbull just wants to get done with all of Nelson’s old policies and quickly more on to his own things (but has to stick with them for the sake of some sense of continuity)
How did Gary Ablett Jr get to be so ugly so young? He’s nearly as ugly as his old man, which is saying something.
Has William banned discussion of the Andorran Question or not?
Is it just me, or is Turnbull just plain nuts when he says “If I were Prime Minister, I would not be going overseas at this time”.
Regardless of any other trip Kruddy has done, wouldn’t this be an important time to be talking to people internationally? Bit of a crisis time? Kruddy is meeting the head of the Fed, or thereabouts… Turnbull seems on a bit of a loser with this line…
It’s a pitch to the lowest possible level of xenophobic populist know-nothingism. It’s what you do when you’re stuck in opposition and devoid of policies anyone would vote for.
I had banned discussion of the head of state/sovereign matter, which last time resulted in a protracted round of “is not/is too”. Let me revise that though: I will let comments through if I find them interesting.
I want to see if GP is capable of a rational argument that Andorra is somehow analogous to Australia in terms of its constitutional arrangements, and how the feudal rights of the Bishop of Urgel shed light on the issue of who Australia’s head of state is, or if (as I believe) he’s just trying to be deliberately annoying because that’s how he gets his jollies.
I wonder if there is an Andorran politics blog that is discussing the Australian constitution… God I hope not.
Looking at the shadow ministry and realising that this could have been the current government gives me a cold shiver.
http://www.liberal.org.au/documents/CoaShadMinList.pdf
And Coonan again. She was absolutely lazy and awful in communications. I remember her talking going the ABC to talk about broadband and she didn’t really know what it was.
My god this is their talent list? The will need losts of cosmetic applied by the media to cover this almost talent free zone up. Turnbull it seems was supported by the no hoper side of the party.
Bishop couldn’t resist the Shadow Treasurers role – a mistake I think. I think Gillard has shown that No.2 in the party doesn’t need to be in that role.
No 374
The main purpose of highlighting Andorra – despite its relative obscurity and unique history – is to demonstrate that it is not illogical for a sovereign to be above a head of state, as the republican movement has been trying to espouse as one of its central argumentative tiers. Andorra’s constitution explicitly states that sovereignty is vested in the people, whilst the heads of state are the co-princes.
That fact also links with my primary argument that Australia’s head of state is the Governor General, an Australian citizen since 1965; debunking yet another reason to move to a republic.
HC was a dial-up Minister in a broadband world…
Oh OK, that means you won’t object to the removal of all references to the Queen from Australia’s constitution, and replacing her head on our coins with something more aesthetically pleasing.
No 376
Rubbish, Coonan was good communications minister. She had to withstand the constant attack from Telstra’s Sol Trujilo and Phil Burgess about her integrity, and furthermore she at least had the sense to avoid introducing a mandatory ISP-based internet filter.
You do realise that Conroy intends to erect a carbon copy of the Great Firewall of China in Australia. Any government which attempts to filter the internet, for whatever reason, deserves utmost condemnation.
The thing to do when you get a new opponent team playing together for the first time is up the pace and complexity – put them under pressure give them a steep learning curve all over the place and, keep switching. Make them look under skilled, under done etc. That is the analogy.
Mirabella looks promising on the front-bench. Should put a bit of stick about.
Which is now Liberal party policy.
No 380
Yes, I do object. Waste of money, waste of time.
The fact is, whilst your relatively minimalist model of constitutional change is superficially pleasing – the whole republican movement could not resolve the issue pertaining to which model was preferred. They then disingenuously blamed John Howard when they subsequently lost.
GP:
why should we keep the monarch then – we don’t need a sovereign as well as a head of state
GP just because one thinks HC was bad, doesn’t necessarily mean Conroy is good.
To be honest the communications portfolio is only slightly worse than Health or Defence.
Good luck coming out of it with a win.
Front page ABC on line Bishop’s rates gaffe- cant name cash rate in first interview as shadow treasurer.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2371279.htm
You’re looking through the telescope backwards. The fact Costello couldn’t convince Howard to support the minimalist model means we will now end up with an extreme direct election model, possibly with the President being the Head of State and Head of Government. Costello says as much in his latest book called Night Thoughts of a Gutless Try-hard.
No 383
I don’t think so.
Bruce Bilson says that the preferred model is parental supervision complemented with an opt-in filter. Conroy proposes a mandatory opt-out filter.
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/news/detail/20080111_LaborsCleanFeedenigmaneedsanswers.php
GP, you do realise that the filter will be optional for end users right?
Doesn’t matter that she doesn’t know the rates really, she was close. I hope they ask her more complicated questions than that.
Am I the only who is finding the numbers people are referring to disjointed? 383 to me referrs to Belinda Neal’s/Croc Tears; yet GP’s post seems to suggest it is Shows ON (which for me is 384).
Is this an IE thing??
No 389
ShowsOn, we don’t even know what model republicans want. It changes with the direction of the wind. Once again, you disingenuously blame Howard (and now Costello) for the failure of the referendum. Get your own house in order is what I would suggest.
HAHAHHAAHAH they didn’t have enough guts to say this when they were in Government.
But it means the OFLC should be privatised. I’ve been advocating this for the last decade!
I wish people would just use quotes instead
392 TP yep it’s a pretty nothing question (though 7 is a pretty easy number to remember)… still I guess she could take the Homer Simpson excuse and say “It’s my first day”.
Any model that removes all references to the Queen from the constitution is fine with me.
Did you learn this statement by rote?
No 391
Yes, it is optional – but it’s an opt-out system which leaves internet users who do choose to opt-out as potential targets of investigation.
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,23274585-15306,00.html
I have no problem with these filters as long as they are opt-in only.
“Andorra’s constitution explicitly states that sovereignty is vested in the people, whilst the heads of state are the co-princes.”
Um, so what? Australia’s constitution does NOT say that sovereignty is vested in the people, because Australia is a monarchy – a constitutional monarchy but still a monarchy. In a monarchy, sovereignty is vested in the monarch. In a monarchy, therefore, there can only be one head of state, the monarch. In Australia, the monarch agreed in 1901 to exercise her sovereignty within the terms of the constitution. Under the constitution, she has delegated her FUNCTIONS to the Governor-General, but she certainly has not ceded her sovereignty. It is impossible to argue that it was the intention of the authors of the constitution, or of the British ministers who put the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act in front of the Queen, or of the Queen herself, that anything in the Constitution could be read as transferring sovereignty from the Queen to the GG. No court has ever ruled otherwise. (And the High Court certainly didn’t do so in 1907 in the case GP keeps citing, as any first-year law student could tell him.) That is a ridiculous travesty of Australian history, and of constitutional law, as anyone with any knowledge of either field knows.
As I said above, GP doesn’t have the faintest idea what he is talking about on this issue.
Have a read of this Whirlpool forum for some more discussion of the filter:
http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies-archive.cfm/967413.html
This post from an ISP representative is particularly pertinent:
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted. Explain your point, please – The Management.
/sarcasm on
Are you sure? Isn’t it possible that politicians and judges swear an oath to her, and we put her face on our coins for fun because we couldn’t think of anyone else to pay tribute to? Like I mean our politicians could say that they swear loyalty to the Australian people, but that would be too mushy. And we put the Queen’s face on coins to remind ourselves that there are people in the world uglier than ourselves.
/sarcasm off
SNIP: Cheap shot deleted – The Management.
Am I right in thinking that the GG-is-head-of-state idea was popularised by David Flint?
Utter twaddle GP. How would these people be potential ‘targets’ of investigation?
Yes I think so. I can recall Turnbull debating the point against him at the Con-Con in 1998.
No 404
Yes.
And David Flint is, of course, a complete fool.
I see.
To try to link the Republic issue to the last few days of Australian politics …
I’m in the “couldn’t care less” camp on the Republic (voted yes in 1999, will decide how to vote in future referenda solely based on the appropriateness of the model).
As a Liberal I don’t give a stuff what position Turnbull takes on the Republic whilst he is leader, as long as he doesn’t waste too much time thinking or speaking about it.
now, now Adam, compared to Kerry Jones he comes across as quite intelligent.
Is the Australian Republican Movement still around?
Speaking as a republican who is still very angry at the way Cleary and co colluded with the monarchists to sabotage the referendum, I am resigned to the fact that nothing will happen on the republic until the Queen dies, which (given that her mother lived to be 102) may not be for many years.
No 408
Rubbish. You haven’t even met the man or talked with him. Certainly his reasons for retaining our current constitutional arrangements are more convincing than anything the ARM could mount both in 1999 and now.
He has a veneer of intellectuality, but in fact he’s a complete simpleton.
And you’ve met Rudd, Gillard and Swan, I suppose?
No 405
Simple. If you were an online law-enforcement officer, your first point of call would be the “opt-out” list. It’s common sense.
No 415
Adam, I don’t think you’re an arbiter on intellectual capacity of others.
I have never understood why we can’t talk about the Republic while there are economic concerns? It’s not like we can only handle one issue at a time. WHen ever will there not be economic issues (ahh now I see why…).
What’s the problem? If we start on the Repbulic road does Treasuray shut down so everyone there can think about what model we’ll have for the head of state?
Somehow I think the RBA won’t waste too much time on the issue. I can just see the minutes of the RBA Board meeting:
“Board member were given some data on inflation, but didn’t take it all in because they were so preoccupied with whether Australia should be a republic. This issue was made even more complicated when Ken Henry brought up the example of Andorra”
Which is just sad, the whole point of becoming a republic is so that our constitution has nothing to do with people who choose to live in other countries.
HAHAHAHAH you flip from saying that the 1999 referendum failed because the model was wrong, to saying that the monarchists won it thanks to the quality of their ‘arguments’. Make up your mind.
Adam,
I could never understand why the Cleary mob did that. It just seemed utterly perverse.
I would be very loath to vote for the direct election model, as it seems to me to have the potential to create some kind of mandate for the President to “do things”. This would be an utterly pointless, and possibly dangerous, change to our current system IMO.
On the other hand a figurehead Australian President would suit me just fine.
Or the non-opt-in list GP. Your assertion is ridiculous.
No 419
It won’t be talked about now because there is no solid support for the republic.
Of course, Turnbull’s claim that we should only be talking about the economy was just his attempt to shift the debate to an issue that the Liberals are somewhat less divided on.
No 422
No it is not ridiculous – an opt-out list would likely be much smaller.
True, but why did the media lay down like dead dogs. Surely someone could ask why a man of his obvious intelligence can’t handle two issues at once?
Like everyone else here, and particularly you GP, I make judgements about the capacity of public figures based on their public performance.
David Flint’s public performances have been uniformly ridiculous, which is why he had to resign from whatever sinecure Howard gave him (I forget now what it was). His political partisanship was blatant, and yet so naive as to be laughable. His efforts at pretending that Australia was already a republic or whatever nonsense it was he tried to run were equally risible, as well as grossly dishonest.
ShowsOn,
Whereas Rudd’s attempt to get a discussion going on the Republic, was, no doubt, based on the purest of motives?
Grog,
Why doesn’t Rudd put up a Republican model if it’s such a priority?
David Flint has this really strange habit of adopting a pseudo-British accent which has never been explained
Well put.
Yeah, motivated by a desire to make Australia a republic. Can’t get purer than that.
Head of the Australian Communications Authority. He was retired after he got Jones and Laws off of their Cash for Comment cases.
I will let Flint mount his own defence:
http://www.norepublic.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=280&Itemid=1
You have no idea what size either list would be, nor whether either would be of the size ‘processable’ by an investigator, nor whether such an investigator would be able to obtain anything from such a fact of being on a list or not on a list. One of the more ridiculous things you’ve come up with GP, and there have been plenty.
No doubt because first there will have to be a shirt load of consultations and that would not be a good look at the minute. And anyway there’s no point doing these things if the oppostion is going to sand bag them from the start.
ShowsOn,
Well, if Rudd’s motives are so pure, he’ll be putting up a model for the Republic, won’t he?
I’m waiting …
He has stated on several occasions that it is not an immediate priority for the government
this is hilarious, talculm’s ideas as a lad.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/master-turnbulls-liberal-spray/2008/09/22/1221935530521.html
I think Flint went to a missionary school in Indonesia where he acquired his accent. I don’t criticise him for his accent, but for the really dumb things he says and does.
I really couldn’t care less about the Republic … the key question for the week is what’s going to happen to the economy.
Heard a guy on 702 tonight (Steve Keen) saying that the US is going to have a Depression. He was talking massive reductions in GDP, prolonged deflation, the whole bit.
Then some listener called in to ask about his investment properties, whether they’d do ok. The answer?
“Australian property is currently priced, on average, at twice the value that it should be”.
Strewth!
[I will let Flint mount his own defence:
http://www.norepublic.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=280&Itemid=1
HAHAHAHAHAH Why is it that there is no explanation in there for why we shouldn’t be a republic? Flint always seems to ignore the most important point whenever he writes something.
The best it says is that the proposed republic model was poor. Well I guess that makes sense, if the referendum in 1999 was for a direct election model, we would already be a republic. That’s what people wanted, the queen lovers just played up that division.
People didn’t vote for the monarchy, they demonstrated that they wanted to directly elect the president.
I loved how on 7:30 Report when Kerry Asked Turnbull about the republic, he replied:
“I don’t remember Kevin Rudd being on the barricades in ‘99″
Barricades?? If only.
The closest Turnbull would have been to a barricade was opening night of Les Miserables.
Nothing new about that news…
That’s for the population to decide, and they will choose a direct election model, and it will win every state by about 60/40. When the population thinks “President” they think “President of the U.S.”, which they associate with direct election (even though technically it isn’t).
The only reason the 1999 model failed was because it wasn’t direct election.
It would stupid and bloody inappropriate of Rudd to put up his own model.
He ain’t the dictator.
A direct election model is a crock, ShowsOn. That’s the only aspect of the Republican debate I feel passionate about.
Adam:
It was Malcolm Turnbull that first made fun of Flint’s accent back in ‘99
For Flint as with Sophie Pano-bella I agree with you that their actions defy explanation
Grog,
It’s got nothing to do with being a dictator, all it’s got to do with is framing a question for a referendum.
Turnbull did the right thing to brush it off. I hope he keeps doing that.
Once again, the Australian media prove how totally inept and biased they are!
I swear some of these characters have forgotten that there was a change of government on November 24!
Today’s headline in the AUSTRALIAN was one of the worst examples of misrepresentation I’ve seen in a while, because their latest Newspoll hardly showed a huge swing back to the Liberals, despite what Shamahan was trying to imply.
Well that’s what we will get so get ready for it. You’ve got about 6 years.
I was there handing out Yes cards at the referendum in 1999, and dozens of people said they would vote for a radical model, but not where the President was appointed by parliament. So they were voting NO because they thought it would get them a direct election model sooner.
They didn’t seem to see the irony that the G-G is effectively appointed by 2 people – the prime minister and the queen, but that’s not surprising given that only 50% of the population even knows we have a written constitution.
I wonder what proportion of the Australian’s readership are Pollbludgers?
Good night bludgers.
I see GP has made no reply to my comments on his “Andorra thesis,” whatever it may be. I expect that’s because he doesn’t really have a clue what he is talking about.
And here is THAT Interview with Julie Bishop in full
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/22/2371253.htm
You would have to find a 100% apolitical bunch of candidates as a popularly elected President with partisan feelings would certainly be tempted to interfere in the political debates, especially approaching election time and his side needing help. You would have a celebrity influencing public perception rather than the cut and thrust of the political parties.
There won’t even be a referendum first. There will be a plebiscite with lots of different models.
Well they don’t. They demonstrate that they were willing to say absolutely anything to help their cause. Honesty, humility, or integrity were nowhere to be found.
Frank – do I really want to watch it?
ShowsOn,
Warnie for President! Or maybe Jennifer Hawkins. Or Daryl Somers, I dunno …
Gee it’s going to be great when we directly elect our President. I’d better make the most of the next six years before (you say) it’s going to happen.
It’s a radio interview
on ABC Local Radio Drive in Perth.
As for Turnball’s much hyped shadow ministry: Swan will eat Bishop for breakfast, Julia will make mincemeat out of that unknown from WA, and Abbott is stuck in a portfolio he doesn’t want!
As soon as Turnball’s poll numbers start declining, watch for the likes of Minchin, Smith and Billson to start flocking to Costello’s side!
No 446
I concur. Do we really want the bread and circuses of the US presidential elections? I think not. But so virulent is their desire to discard the queen, the ARM will happily discard the stability that our constitution has provided for the last 100 years.
Well, that’s why we could end up with an extremely radical model where the President and Head of Government (Prime Minister) are the same person who are not members of the legislature. So every 3 years we vote for who we want to be the executive head of state and government, who then can appoint ministers from inside the legislature (federal parliament).
This just returns to my point that moderates and conservatives should’ve voted for the 1999 model, because it is the most moderate model that will ever be offered. Any model after this point will be more radical and will include a direct election component to give it a chance of winning.
which would get shot down in flames as being “Rudd’s republic”
Yep brush off what apparently was his life long fight. Good to see the one thing everyone knew he stood for he dumped as soon as he could. (but then we knew he’d donw that when he chose to work with the PM who broke Australia’s heart…)
Or Eddie McGuire, or even Generic Person
Heck, even HUmphrey B Bear or one of The Wiggles or Hi-5 might get the keys to Yarralumna 
ShowsOn,
What, precisely, will a plebiscite achieve?
The monarchists will just run dead at that juncture, and then when the referendum happens (you know, that’s the vote that actually counts), trot out all the arguments against whatever the model is.
Anyway, enough for tonight!
An alteration of the Constitution has always required four steps:
1. A member of the Federal Parliament must introduce a proposed law.
2. The proposed law must be passed by an absolute majority of both Houses of the Parliament
3. The Government must advise the Governor-General to submit the proposed law to the electors
4. The majority of the electors in a majority (i.e. four) of the States and a majority of all the electors must approve the proposed law
There is no member of Parliament or candidate for Parliament who has promised to introduce a bill for to establish a direct election republic
If a proposed law for a directly elected presidency was passed by both houses, a Government led by any likely leaders of the Liberal or Labor parties would not advise the Governor-General to submit it to the electors
If a proposed law for a directly elected presidency were submitted to the electors – Ms Kerry Jones and her monarchist followers and successors would oppose it
Simple as that
“This just returns to my point that moderates and conservatives should’ve voted for the 1999 model, because it is the most moderate model that will ever be offered.”
At last, ShowsOn, something we agree on.
How many votes does our current Head of State receive?
That would be ZERO. Any system that improves on that is fine with me.
HAHAHAHAHAHHHA 1975.
Generic Person for President? Oh God, No!
Turnbull avoided the Republican wedge using the Queens death as an end-point. I know it’s a bit morbid to mention this but everyone dies eventually. That’s the first thing I tell my registrars when things are looking grim.
I’m a Republican but I quite respect the Queen as a person. I’m not wishing her dead but QEII is 82 years old. Her health is reportedly excellent but Turnbull may regret linking a republic to the Queens demise.
Of course, but it failed. So now we will end up with a direct election model. I just hope we go to the absolute extreme and remove the executive from the legislature while we are at it. If we do that then it will kill off party discipline over night, which would kill of the careers of all our dead wood politicians, and will promote politicians from either side who actually have strong policy and legislative brains. It would shift our politics back to the centre by creating a coalition of moderates and centrists, and would side line extremists on either side.
Grog,
I don’t think he’s dumped it, has he? Just said it’s not a priority.
Like I said, Rudd raised the topic, and he’s the leader of the majority party in the HOR (and therefore the best placed single person in the nation to advance the Republican cause, if he so chooses). Let him do so, if he wishes.
The journos are totally owned by the sun king – don’t write what is expected then they are probably out of the game. More like whipped dogs eager to please their masters. And they do follow the right script as they are employed on the bias of being wimpy Liberal yes men with no moral compass. I can just see them wagging their tails wetting the floor in excitement whenever the sun king calls on the phone or by email.
Well maybe not like that but it is good imagery and about what they are worth as journos. Haven’t looked at those papers for a long time. No point – you know what script they will follow and when they will follow it.
I think that is a STUPID reason for delaying the republic debate. We can decide these issues for ourselves, we don’t need to wait for someone in some other country to die. This sums up why we should be a republic, we are always forelock tugging to people in other countries.
ShowsOn, I’m not a fan of “HAHAHAHA”.