The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.
There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.
UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.
UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.
663 Comments
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 … 14 » Show All
yep GB The next newspoll will be the more interesting one.
Well of course this is all to be expected. Turnbull was going to come in with the whole weight of the Howard media behind him and, expect it to run for some time as they did at one stage for Nelson. Get used to things being put in whatever context best helps Turnbull.
Would have been interesting to see what TPP the Galaxy had given all the personal elements for Turnbull were quite bad – but they say those questions were asked.
The only thing that confuses me is that Turnbull leads Rudd on the economic front when the last poll on the issue had Swan beating Turnbull. I cannot see any reason public perception would have changed in the meantime. We have had interest rate cuts, our financial system is under control and their have been statements to the effect that our financial system is of a better quality and, Labor has been going on about the economy from day one. So that result just doesn’t rign true to me.
I watched Rupert yesterday singing the praises of Obama (exciting, a changing in thinking etc) and saying McCain had problems to deal with. And when asked if he had anything to do with the New York post endorsing Obama his reply was ‘Yes!’
Don’t tell me he is mellowing? Or is he wanting to disown any association with the Repulicans Wall Street crash. Hopefully he has mellowed and will stick a big stick into his Howardista journalists here.
“..but they say those questions were asked. ” I mean were not asked.
Those of us who’ve been around any decent amount of time know that an early Newspoll can only mean one thing.
Apparently Turnbull has been talking down the economy again.
He’s been suggesting the government should emulate Bush with his own Bunyip Bailout of banks that don’t need bailing out. To do this he would naturally have to stay at home and not be off galavanting in New York where there are strip clubs to tempt him from the straight and narrow.
It all makes sense for about 10 seconds.
So, I suppose when the local markets panic at an unexpected bailout, and when our credit rating drops precipitously, the Libs can then say the economy isn’t being run properly by Rudd The Dud.
This guy, Turnbull, is brainstorming out loud, with the economy as his sounding board. Not a good look for a supposedly sober Opposition Leader, but exactly what merchant bank jocks do as they put together another dodgy deal. Run-it-up-the-flagole-and-see-who-salutes type of stuff. They know better than the Reserve Bank and feel perfectly free to correct the odd bit of messy wording, just to help out, mind you. They offer to share their fiscal brilliance with the plodding Labor triers, again only in the spirit of national unity. It’s all so easy, actually, the kind of thing you jot down on the back of an envelope and get the secretary to type up into something that looks meaningful. A quick shake hands all ’round and the Deal’s Done. Just like those AMEX ads they used to run on the telly. All sleeves-rolled-up and ties loosened before the blessed go out for bagels at 7am.
I guess it’s a superficially attractive set piece, and if the slower thinking among the mortgage-stressed think they might save a few dollars on the monthly payments, or that their super might go up a tad as a result then why all the worry-worting from the government about a mere $6 billion? Not to worry that this kind of slick, boiler room deal-making is what got us into the mess we’re in in the first place. Or that a federal government taking on loss-making paper as a way of cleaning it up would kill confidence in our economy (as it has in the States). Or even that the Surplus would likely disappear. There’s always a simple solution that involves a few dashed-off figures and a little bit of snake-oil. Quite straightforward, don’t y’know?
TP, on the economic question, the normal joe blow who isnt a politic tragic would probably just see that talculm was a banker and score on that, they wouldnt know the difference between a banker and a merchant banker, a few more boo boos like this one and they’ll soon sit up and notice.
http://abc.com.au/news/
The Narrowing at last!!! Well, in one poll at least…
When 54-46 gets reported as:
Turnbull puts life into Libs; and
Political Lady Luck favours Turnbull with good timing
you know that the actuall numbers means nothing to the journo at The Oz.
more shadow speculation:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381588-2702,00.html
Abbott looks set to stay “off centre stage”… (the first politician to be undone by his own blog?)
Question: does anyone here seriously believe Turnbull is that much more arrogant than Rudd?
Probably wasting my time asking here, but I’m curious nonetheless. I think they’re both as arrogant as each other (although Rudd is better at hiding it.) Both need a knock to the head from time to time. But I’d much rather have an arrogant twat than a useless dithering idiot as our leader.
Turnbull is arrogant in that he thinks he knows it all. I’m fine with that. It’s when politicians are arrogant to the extent they think they take voters for granted that I (and many like me) crack the sh!ts. And say what you want about Turnbull, I highly doubt he thinks the latter – at this point anyway.
Our greatest treasurer had an ego bigger than the current two leaders combined. Second greatest wasn’t far off him. I’ll leave you to deliberate on which one I think is which.
Max – yep both arrogant; Rudd better at hiding it (just as Howard was). Name me any leader worth his or her salt who didn’t think he or she was the only person who could run the country?
Janet at the OO is VERY excited by a 55-45 thrashing. Evidently, that’s a good thing for Turnbull and it’s “Game on”. She manages to write her article without mentioning that Turnbull is still 10% behind on the precious Newspoll. Am I reading a different poll to everyone else. There’s almost no bounce. I went for 54 TPP Labor as did most people. They didn’t even get that. There’s no honeymoon. Even Palin got a honeymoon.
And more importantly, did the Rolls-Royce Marsupial team beat the Ford PollBludger team?
In Janet’s defence Diogenes – she wrote that yesterday before the poll came out (not that she would have changed a word anyhow).
Turnbull: a banker demanding that bankers be bailed out.
The Liberal way.
Max a leader who thinks he knows it all would lead this country down the gurgler before you could blink, one of Rudd’s strengths is that he consults and gives weight to the experts in each field, something the rodent had problems with in his last term, Rudd is in constant contact with the reserve bank and the treasury and they sing from the same sheet, the rodent and smirk were given warning after warning from the reserve bank but they knew better–the result inflation out of controll and soaring interest rate rises, one after the other, you’d think they’d have taken notice after the first couple, they knew better.
Grog i’ve made a pact with myself to do my blood pressure a favour and not go to the newsltd sites today lol.
The US financial system has been rocked in the last week. That’s probably why Turnbull now has a slight lead over Rudd on the economy. The fact that, despite the economic negatives, the Libs haven’t picked up more of a bounce does not bode well for Turnbull in the long run.
Although, if we are headed for a Great Depression scenario, Rudd’s going to have his work cut out.
Also Diogenes, last Thrusday over at Larv Prodeo, they had a contest to see what the headlines would be for the newspoll. I said if it was 54-46 The Oz would go with “It’s Game On!”
Grog
She wrote it yesterday. The OO owns Newspoll which was published yesterday. If the Newspoll would have supported her pathetic argument in any way, it would have been included as they would already have known the numbers. Looks like you win the cookies at LP.
It’s game on now for Kevin Rudd
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has met more than his match in Malcolm Turnbull.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/game_on/
Turnbull really needs to get his sh!t together and stop sounding like an idiot. If I can find this in a couple of minutes in the NYT, why can’t he? Perhaps he should be in New York where it’s all happening. Foreign banks with exposure to the US meltdown are now included in the bailout. The Australian government ie the taxpayers do not need to pay out. If the banks want/need/deserve a handout, they can go to Paulson, who’s looking a lot like Father Christmas.
Foreign Banks Hope Bailout Will Be Global
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/business/22global.html?_r=2&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Today’s sharemarket opening has been delayed an hour ASIC is to make a statement shortly.
It is not reality or what we think but how the public perceive that the polls record. They see Turnbull has highly arrogant which is real problem for him as they also think he is untrustworthy. A nasty combination to have in the public mind I would have thought.
Turnbull’s assault on the markets again is truly irresponsible and highlights that the Libs wouldn’t mind taking the economy down if they could if it meant getting a few points in the polls. The markets have not mentioned, asked for or need billions pumped into from the government. Turnbull is in fact one of those bankers who make money trading paper and speculation.
I take issue with anyone who says Costello was even a good Treasurer. Having presided over a period of huge revenues from the global boom, nothing to do with anyone, he sat back and did nothing at all. Standing at the till taking the in the money is not being a financial manager or Treasurer. Instead he and his friend let the structure of this nation fall behind leaving it to Labor to have rebuild our infrastructure and education system. And now in this ecomic down turn are we going to suffer because of Costello’s laziness?
Right. I think I’ve pinned the consensus on this blog down:
AC Neilson is rogue (their last pre-election poll was an outlier). 52:48 is too close a result for a genius PM and his wonderful government as they have clearly captivated the nation with competence and brilliant policy initiatives. The Messianic Rudd has permanently altered the political landscape in favour of the Labor Party (just push aside the ALP’s atrocious performance at every single voting-poll since the election). The Libs should never again hope to see a favourable opinion poll, let alone gain government.
Newspoll is right on the mark because it shows Labor well ahead. Furthermore, given these precarious economic times, the public is quite rightly pinning most of the blame on Howard and Costello and falling into Rudd / Swan’s arms because they clearly have a well-formulated plan to save us from falling into the global quagmire
That’s the way the cookie tends to crumble AC. The Labor Governments invariably see Australia through the bad times and the Liberals when times are good and no great level of competence is needed.
A-C, umm could you please put a link in for Rudd’s/ALP atrocious performance at every single voting poll since the election, i must have blinked and missed it.
AC @ 71,
I think you have posted on the wrong site.
Either that or you have read the posts far more differently than I have!
No 72
Rubbish steve.
From my understanding in order to qualify for the bail-out you need to be based in the U.S, the FT-Asia yesterday had an outline of the proposed bill.
No 70
Talk about a beat up TP! Have you already forgotten Swan’s obscene remarks about the inflation genie being out of the bottle in January? What sort of responsible Treasurer would ever do that?!
Here it is again, this time from Samantha Maiden at teh OO, who really is a cretin.
It’s the Hunting of the Snark all over. “If I say it three times it’s true.”
A 1% shift is easily within the MOE. 55%-45% is an absolute thrashing. But Turnbull has been “buoyed” by a 1% shift.
The Senator must be reading different polls than I am! Also, what leadership team?
Turnbull hasn’t even named his front bench yet!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370495.htm
mexicanbeemer
That was initially the case but Paulson has “reconsidered his position”.
Fronm the article I linked above;
Merchant Banker – Merchant Greed Broker. Does Malcom represent what the problem was.
There must be a bunch of blonde type jokes to come from this surely.
As Possums said both polls are in complimentary orbits.
I still don’t buy the Turnbull better econmic manager figures and, that makes me ponder the sample. We knew he was a merchant banker when Treasurer, surley more beneficial to his polls in that role.
Anyway all the more interesting.
Lets re-cap why has the PM been overseas eight times! I can’t recall any that clearly were not needed.
Steve, change that to “Labor Government invariably *take* Australia through bad times and the Liberals clean up the mess – ie Kennett, Greiner, Howard etc and it’ll be more plausible.
Judith, you must have been sleeping as opposed to blinking.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2008/
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/06/gippsland-by-el.html
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/06/gippsland-by–1.html
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2008/
http://news.smh.com.au/national/labor-hanging-tough-in-local-elections-20080914-4g10.html
Diogenes you gota love that though, ‘Kevin 747′ brilliant play on words.
Hell if 07 can stick maybe 747 can?
GP,
Wouldn’t be one that regularly spoke about a financial “tsunami”, prior to the last election by any chance?
Diogenes! considering how open the rest of the proposals were it looks like the U.S Treasury is now a blank cheque for any Financial company!
If that is correct where is the need for Banks to show any sort of constrant in their lending practices, with the changes does that now meanany Bank regardless of domestic economy can get a bail-out.
Re: Greiner “cleaning up the mess”
Unfortunately, thanks to NSW Labor the state needs a fumigation opposed to a cleanup. But I guess according to Steve, Carr, Iemma, Rees etc etc should be credited for “taking the state through bad times.”
AC just tell me in four years time if WA is the leading state in economic indicators. Most unlikely I’d suggest, but time will tell.
That “Kevin 747″ thing has been splattered across the internet in the past couple of days by Liberal tr#lls.
They probably think it looks better than the Kevin 737″ label that has been getting around for a number of weeks.
Liberal HQ has probably done a focus group thingy and decided it comes across making Rudd look as though he is following the lead set by Howie. Engaging in OS trips just for the sake of it.
Glen
While I disagree with the argument of Kevin 747, it’s very smart politics. Lots of voters never get OS and if Kev’s been 8 times in less than a year, it doesn’t go down well. There’s something called “stickiness” in marketing and Kevin 747 is a great catchy line to make the idea stick. I hope he comes back with something from his financial meetings in New York.
No 68
The article is ambiguous as to which foreign banks would be included in the bailout. Either way, it would be inappropriate for the US Government to be bailing out foreign banks.
The fact that banks are being bailed out at all is also outdated Keynesian lunacy.
Or perhaps the Leader of the Opposition (and ex-Treasury spokesman) who has today suggested our banks need urgent bailing out, and who last week was insinuating that Medibank Private was approaching bankruptcy?
No 81
The Shadow Treasurer hardly gets as much airtime as the Leader of the Opposition. You’re just skittish because your beloved ALP took a hit.
No 89
It’s just an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.
Steve,
I’m not game enough to predict WA’s economic performance four years from now.
What I am confident enough to say is that it would undoubtedly be far worse if Labor won and their idiotic “uranium ban” policy was enacted.
No 94
Agreed A-C. Banning uranium mining was a reckless concession to attract Greens voters.
93 ”It’s just an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.”
GP, Just yesterday afternoon you were telling us that the trip wasn’t an issue. Of course it is an issue in the minds of conservatives, but somewhere between the flack over not visiting Japan and Turnbull’s holiday in Venice that only finished last weekend, I doubt it is going to go anywhere.
mexicanbeemer @ 85,
Geoff Elliott in the Oz has a really good article on the current US plan and just what the ramifications are for the global financial system.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bush_rescue_plan_has_it_backwards
This explains the problem and the shortcomings of the proposed solutions and who will pay in the end (the ordinary taxpayer) and who benefits most (the big end of town & the wealthy)
No 96
The trip is not an issue. But that does not preclude the fact that it is an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.
Crikey. If that is a glancing blow – 1 percentage point on 2pp, and the Opposition Leader on 28% PPM – qualifies as a “hit”, I’d love to see a haymaker.
When it boils down to it, Turnbull agrees with this trip. He has to or else his own trip earlier on this year, and its justification that “face to face” contact is essential, would seem dopey. So the argument here is old beer: “Rudd takes too many trips in general”. This might have a certain resilience to those who think a package holiday in Bali or a week in New Zealand are the trips of a lifetime, but we know that Rudd’s overseas assignments are anything but holidays, for all concerned. No cricket, no tennis, no romantic walks along Cable Beach at taxpayers’ expense. All work, starting a 6am every day. So much so that the accompanying journos whinge about the pace.
Rudd’s trip was planned well before the $hit hit the fan economically, true, but this just shows his foresight and political genius in anticipating that New York would be the place to be in late September, 2008. Contrast this with Turnbull’s self-indulgent sojurn in the luxurious precincts of Venice only recently. I wonder how many senior financial experts Mal spoke to on that trip? Perhaps he picked up some fiscal tips from his gondolier? LOL
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 4 5 … 14 » Show All