The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.
There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.
UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.
UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.
663 Comments
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98″… it is an opportunity for Rudd to self-aggrandise.”
Luckily we’ve seen none of this aggrandising behaviour from the Opposition on this issue, isn’t it?
GP,
The ALP have been consistent in their uranium policy stance (although the 3 mines policy was a concession) since before the Greens even existed as a political Party, so there were no Greens to pander to then although Labor don’t mind a Greens preference flow now.
Julie bishop just announced on ABC radio as likely Shadow Treasurer.
Perhaps she can go to New York too, and stare them down?
Kapow – gotcha GP.
No 103
Read No 98.
Rudd’s stroke of genius in banning short trading has resulted in a surge on the ASX, almost back to 5000 points. The only whingers are the slick “investment consultants” who now can’t corrupt the market. They’ll have to hold onto those shares they thought would make them richer. No Turnbull bailout for them.
Rudd has very good reason to be concerned at developments in the US and possible flow-on effects on a global scale.
Lots of good links here also.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bush_rescue_plan_has_it_backwards
GP
Setting aside the issue of whether a bailout should happen or not, isn’t there a danger if the US don’t bail out foreign banks with big stakes in the US that the foreign banks will become uncompetitive and have to pull out of America? I don’t know the exposure of Oz banks is (I heard CBA was abuot $150M) but they must be looking at “downsizing” their US operations.
I take it you’re ignoring the Newspoll.
104 – yeah, two bob each way. How clever.
No 105
There was no stroke of genius. Australia was simply following the lead of the US and UK.
No 107
If these foreign banks are worried about becoming uncompetitive, they should be lobbying their own governments for assistance, not the US Treasury.
Notice that the US Secretary of Treasury was a Goldman Sachs, merchant banker in a past life.
No wonder Turnbull feels an affinity to him and wants to put some insurance in place to bail out the big end of town in the event of a major flow on effect in the Australian financial markets.
Pity though about the ordinary taxpayers who will have to carry all the pain.
Or more realistically, more pain than they are having to carry now.
GP – Malcolm has done the same trick by essentially arguing that in isolation this trip by Rudd is important but not if you include all the trips he has done, and this bloke expects us to buy that?
GP
Evidently Oz is leading the world on “short selling”. And I’m happy to look stupid so here goes. What the hell is “short selling”?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24380714-5014000,00.html
No 112
The outrageousness of this bailout cannot be overstated. It will cost more than the Iraq war.
GP @ 111,
I don’t think it has anything to do with competitiveness but more to do with their US branches having a degree of exposure to the meltdown effect which has the spread of risk directly affecting them too.
Crikey, can you imagine a budget handed down by Eyes Bishop?
All the big concessions to business and employers. WorkChoices-type tax cuts for employees: mean, miserable and humiliating.
Just one look at those menacing features, and battlers are like to shudder, “Keep your bloody tax cuts.”
A-C, i’m still waiting for that link to Rudd’s/ALP’s atrocious showing in the polls since the election, i’m politely asking you to put your facts that i obviously missed up.
No 114
As I understand, it is where investors sell stock they don’t down in the hope that they buy it back for a cheaper cost later on. I’m just as confused as anyone else on the details, though.
The difference between the Australian ban and the bans in the US and UK is that all short-selling is prohibited; whereas overseas the ban only extends to financial stocks.
We still have no idea of the effect the global derivatives market will have on all this yet.
There is a strong possibility of a total collapse of the global financial system but the powers at be are keeping mum on this at present.
No 119 should read “they don’t own”
No 116
Even so, it is not the responsibility of the US Treasury to be bailing out foreign entities.
If Rudd didn’t go to NY this time around the noise would be twice as loud and long. You can just imagine it!
How much then was Turnbull a part of the melt-down problem? I would assume that it was all the merchant banker tics sucking the blood of the body that is the systemic problem here. Should he be asked if he has made any profits from short selling, advised short selling or used short selling in anyway (short sellinig the new communism). Wouldn’t be nice to hear that it him and his kind that has bought financial markets to the brink.
Alternate names spring to mind for Turnbull and his type:
Merchant Greed
Merchant Wrecker
Turnbull Greed
Short Sell Malcolm
On the other hand I am hoping Turnbull will come up with some more moderate policies and once and for all dump all elements of Workchoices ideology. But I doubt that his masters will allow that unfortunately. Just imaging the screaming that will go on in Minchin’s office if Rudd wants to bring in increased regulatory frames works as the USA might adopt (if any and if what we have is not adequate).
The Age headline today read “New leader puts coalition in front”. Guess it must have been a Clayton’s lead (the lead you have when you haven’t really got a lead) because the story then went on to say that “the government retains an election winning lead”.
The big risk for Turnbull now is that if this is something of an outlier result (a strong possibility considering the Newspoll figures), the headline for the next Age Poll could easily be very deflating for him.
Why not? It was the lax regulation and open slather lending practices endorsed by the Treasury and supported by their stupidity in setting interest rates too low for too long that set up all the conditions in the first place, for this mess to turn into the total shambles that it is now.
No 123
The hysteria coming out of both yours and Gillard’s mouth, pertaining to Workchoices, is just absurd given that Gillard’s “Forward with Fairness” legislation is simply Workchoices Lite. George Megalogenis articulated the point quite well on Insiders yesterday.
“Forward with Fairness” does not repeal Workchoices.
Thomas
Turnbull is unlikely to discard WorkChoices-type policy.
1) It is in the Liberals’ DNA as the party that governs for business and employers.
2) Julie Bishop (deputy leader?) is very pro.
3) Turnbull has the job on the conditional acceptance of the right. He jeopardises his position by jettisoning the right’s pet policy.
4) Economically Turnbull himself is of the right, so likely to be pro anyway.
It makes you wonder why American traders were throwing such a tantrum when the banning of short selling was mentioned there. They lose one of their toys to make money, but making money in a way that produces nothing. In other words a partial greed machine.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370541.htm
No 125
Scorpio, you do realise that you are now blaming Treasury for the irresponsibility of the banks. Why should the taxpayer subsidise the gambles made by banks? Free market philosophy entails individual responsibility and hence, whilst the Treasury may have had relaxed policy settings, the banks ultimately made their beds.
119 GP there are no tricky details with short selling it is as you say: Selling now, hoping to buy again cheaper in the future and pocket a profit.It is a mirror reflection of buying cheap and hoping to sell dearer in the future.
Thomas p,
Explain the moral difference between short selling (and hoping that the buy-back price is lower so you make a profit) and long-selling (hoping to maximise the sale price). They are both profit-inclined and therefore as evil and greedy (to use your socialist-thinking) as each other.
No 128
LOL what hypocrisy.
I bet in the next breadth you’ll criticise Howard for all the welfare spending, despite your allegations of governing solely for “business and emloyers”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/paul-sheehan/mighty-hangover-from-debt-binge/2008/09/21/1221935447612.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Can the leader of the opposition guarantee that he has never engaged in the destructive and despicable practice of Short Selling in order to make money for himself or others?
People should be quizzing him on this. And he ought to be truthful otherwise the cover up is the bigger story. LoL
No 199:
This is why it is a stroke of genius. It punishes the lurk merchants (Turnbull’s spiv mates) and rewards the productive.
No 132
A-C, in TP’s world, the real bastion of greed is the Government. He will never admit it though.
New shadow bench:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/22/2370720.htm
Bishop v Swan
Rodd v Albanese
Coonan v Smith
Pearce v Tanner
sorry make that Robb! not Rodd
GP,
I hope my 134 answers your 130.
There are countless links and information to totally refute your statement.
Would you like my to post a dozen or so?
One relies on prosperity. The other relies – and often corruptly promotes – misery. Merchant bankers understand all this intimately. That is why they are such miserable individuals, especially when they are crying poor, encouraging their pet politicians to spruik for a bailout of their woes. These are the heroes of Big End Of Town, Turnbull touts all. They are all gutless wonders, unable to take the consequences of their mischievious behavior. They feed off society, holding it to blackmail when their insidious tricks fall flat.
And the Libs elected one of them to lead them? LOL
Working in the financial industry myself I can attest that short selling is regulated in many different ways from country to country, and can be an absolute PAIN with all the rules that can apply. Still, traders like it (for obvious reasons) and so it has flourished.
If traders like it then I don’t.
Grog that is funny ‘People Skills Abbott’ retains communities, no nearer to the action he craves or is he a modern day Brier Rabbit?
(112)
“Pity though about the ordinary taxpayers who will have to carry all the pain”
Interesting Scorpio that the latest Rasmussen poll in the US taken in the early stages of the meltdown showed that only 7% of respondents were in favour of a tax payer funded bail out. 65% thought Wall St should bear the losses.
I dare say, our home grown taxpayers would be about as equally thrilled with any such plan proposed here..
No 136
LOL more uninformed nonsense. Short selling is no different to any other risk made on the stock market. The only reason why it was banned temporarily was to ensure that investors don’t profit from or spur the collapse of more banks.
The cause of the current crisis is ultimately due to stupid lending practices by the banks, not short trading.
You prove my point. Interesting that, from not knowing what short trading was a few posts ago, you now set yourself out as an investment expert.
If it wasn’t spiv that were gaming the market, please explain in simple terms why Macquarie bank went down 35 points and up 40 point in 48 hours if short selling wasn’t involved.
146 The only reason why it was banned temporarily was to ensure that investors don’t profit from or spur the collapse of more banks.
Not quite. Short selling is being banned because it tends to drive prices down GP adding to instability in financial markets.
actually just having fun with turnbulls past
No 141
Sorry, but more nonsense.
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