The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.
There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.
UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.
UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.
663 Comments
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Strictly speaking that is not correct. A short seller DOES NOT OWN the stock they are selling, as opposed to someone who actually buys in the hope of a stock price going up. This increases the risk significantly. There are large regulatory requirements for short selling as opposed to buying. The crash in ‘29 was blamed on short selling when there were far less restrictions on how it could be done.
150:
So says the instant expert. Please answer the question posed in 147.
Funny isn’t it. Before the election, according to the Liberals, the big threat to The Economy was supposed to come from Labor and their frontbench: those “union bosses” etc. Now they’re admitting the danger is from capitalists on the right, not hairy-armed types on the left.
this dang person must be dragging down labor’s primaries, why doesn’t she just go away!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/im-not-snow-white-but-i-have-feelings-neal/2008/09/22/1221935499151.html
Yes. And now we must bail them out to save ourselves. I wonder how many more times in the future American excesses – wars, stock market crashes etc. – are going to wreck ordinary lives in the rest of the world.
These are dangerous people, full of themselves for no good reason.
steve – yep his blog did him in I suspect.
and make that Hockey v Tanner
GP is off reading up on trading practices in Wikipedia. LOL
GP @ 150: Explain why, please. Comment not worth making otherwise.
Bronwyn Bishop dropped. Sob.
No 147
I’m not pretending to be an expert. I found out the information from doing a few google searches.
Generally, from what I have read, I don’t believe it is a corrupt practice because it provides liquidity and capital when the markets are stable. Prudential regulators have done the right thing by banning it until the market stabilises.
GP, I’m surprised the other young Libs haven’t explained to you that if sellers predominate in a market(short or long) then prices tend to get driven down.
I was also wrong about Robb going to infrastructure (curses the “more to follow” media!!)
But I love this:
Sounds suspisciously like the he didn’t get treasury so we’ll give him what’s left portfolio.
And it shows
If you buy a stock the best return you can get is unlimited as the possible increase in the price of the stock is unlimited, while the worst you can do is if the stock falls to zero and you just lose your original investment
If you sell short the best return you can get is if the price of the stock falls to 0, but the worst you can do is unlimited as the possible increase in the price of the stock is unlimited!
Short selling clearly has more possible risk
Who got IR and Health?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/08-09-22%20turnbull%20shadow%20ministry%20attachment.pdf
Here’s the list:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/08-09-22%20turnbull%20shadow%20ministry%20attachment.pdf
is Bronwyn Bishop still in parliament? i thought she’d faded into the sunset, i hav’nt heard a squeak from her since the election–actually well before then come to think of it.
No 163
Of course, the risk is not the same and I was incorrect to assert as much.
But to characterise the whole practise of short selling as corrupt is going much too far.
you beat me to it James.
intersting bit on the travel aspect:
Also Turnbull’s bit about Rudd being overseas more often than Smith is wrong,, But hey I know it doesn’t matter. It’s only fact.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24381447-662,00.html
Hurray for Michael Keenan in IR now that’s a big promotion.
He’ll have his work cut out for him against Julia though, good on the lad.
Seems quite a few Senators getting promoted…
shadow IR is Keenan?? anyone know who he is??
Also Glen it gets third lowest billing… interesting
James J 165 is that link saying there has been a political death of Barnaby and a resurrection of Truss as Leader of the Nationals?
Poor Michael Keenan, up against Gillard. That won’t be pretty.
Barnaby Joyce is leader of the Nats in the Senate but not in the Shadow Ministry. Nigel Scull-it-down is still Nats Deputy Leader, but not Leader in the Senate. Go figure.
Turnbull’s strategy, notwithstanding the demotion of Nelson supporters, appears to be to groom the parliamentary freshmen. I can’t say I disagree with that approach because it is a distinct break from the past.
That said, Abbott is very much wasted in his current portfolio.
I wouldn’t call it corrupt, but bloody hell it’s damn close. It allows traders to manipulate the market and devalue stocks without any justification for it. After the 29 crash they brought in rules that you couldn’t short sell on a downtick for this very reason (and then inexplicably removed them again last year!). I reckon they will have to reinstate it because the events of recent weeks show just how devestating short selling can be in unstable financial times.
MP for Stirling i helped out the lad during his 2004 campaign a real good sort.
That is interesting Grog is there a reason for the way the list was prepared i dunno.
I wouldnt be so worried Julia will be surprised Keenan takes no guff and is quick on his feet, and he’ll need to be.
Keenan is an up and comer in WA politics. He’s got Stirling by about 2%, so he’ll have to keep an eye on the home front.
So Julia is now up against Pyne and Keenan.
Also what happened to Dutton??? Did he get chucked?
Dutton got Health and Aging he’ll be way out of his depth there.
Abbott is a waste of space in any portfolio!
Oh no Dutton got health i missed that
Judith, they keep her locked up in a cupboard. The keys have long since been “carelessly” misplaced.
If dropping BB was a no-brainer, would appreciate comments on Coonan in cabinet. Having lived in NSW for 21 months and through one federal election (2007), I would rate HC as also a massive waste of space.
Grog @ 156,
Tanner will wipe the floor with Hockey who hasn’t got a hope
…….
The front bench now looks awfully liberal, lots of wets in there now that Mal’s taken over.
Could be a good thing.
Glen, Pyne is no contest, isnt he the dill who whined that some pollies out to dinner made a bit of fun at him when he first went to Canberra? somebody joked to him and he took offense and complained to the meeja, i’ve only been able to visualise him as Christopher Whine ever since lol.
Hang on Glen, GP says there are no factions, or was it you?
Not sure how the list is done Glen, though these things do generally have a bit of symbolism to them eg Bishop comes second, followed by Truss.
I’m no fan of Coonan. Thought she was certainly part of the old guard. At 60 I thought she might give way for the younger breed..
That’s being generous
You can be guaranteed of one thing, the MSM will see them as the best thing since sliced bread.
I never said there werent factions. Of course the Libs have factions, we just dont publicise that we do.
That’s one reason ill never go into politics, factions.
factions are fun
Sorry Glen, it must have been GP. I agree with your sentiments re factions.
It’s the fact they are on the same team but then there’s a team within a team and they spend more time fighting against the other team inside their team that their team does badly.
Humphrey Appleby would be proud of that definition.
Sophie Mirrabella get early childhood women and youth. sort of going up against Maxine Mckew and Kate Ellis (sort of, unlikely there’ll be many QT questions)
Fierrevantti-Welles- is Parl Sec for immigration.
Glen also on Yes Min connections, when ealier Adam asked who got Ir and Health, I was v tempted to ask “has anyone got brains”?
No. 160:
The instant Google expert! GP, if you’re not an expert then calling others’ comments “nonsense” is a non sequiter. It’s really quite easy to poke holes in your arguments.
QT coming up. This is where Rudd is supposedly going to be trounced on the wconomy. Libs finally on the comeback trail. Get ready for a Master Class from Turnbull. LOL.
Grog…classic.
watching QT – Bishop and Hockey haven’t changed their positions behind Turnbull
No 197
And if you did some cursory reading, you’d note that short trading isn’t corrupt. There are benefits to it. Even the financial regulator in the UK recognised as much. It is only problematic, generally, in a bear market and the regulators have thus taken appropriate action.
Your dislike for the practise arises out of your general disdain for capitalism, which is equally as easy to poke holes through.
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