The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43, remembering that this is a two-week rolling average which was half conducted before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson. Also included (just from the last week’s sample) are various questions on leadership and one on industrial relations (45 per cent think the government moving “too slowly”).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Essential Research: 57-43
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No 48
More rubbish.
GP
I agree with the snap poll argument. Everyone applauded Nelson for “showing courage” and “settling the issue” but I though he wasn’t doing his party any favours creating a desperate dash to the line. It’s like calling an election and not allowing any time for campaigning. It was pretty ordinary IMHO.
45 “The Liberal Party supports an emissions trading scheme. Our view has always been that we should not be pursuing the policy with needless haste.”
Funny one GP!
Penny Wong pointed out in Senate Question time today that not only are Turnbull’s economic credentials shot with the poor appointment of Mesmeralda but worse for him is his environmental credentials have been hit for six too. Turns out the two old climate change denialists Robb the Googler in the HoR and Minchin is his representative against Penny Wong.
Turnbull if he has a credibility/trust problem as it seems then his tax policy can suffer from being associated with Workchoices as in ‘the workchoices of taxation’ regardless of the detail. The tag will stick and create doubt.
I agree he is the best thing for the party but only if he can break the control of the right otherwise he will just lose more credibility.
The Turnbull/Hewson comparisons are getting eerier. Just off the top of my head…
Both went to Sydney Uni.
Both merchant bankers.
Both in parliament just a few years (4 and 3) when elected Leader.
Both members for Wentworth.
And now the hint of Turnbull also having tax as his raison-d’etre.
Any more?
Hewson lost the unloseable election in 93.
Don’t know whether that’s good or bad news for Rudd.
But as Peter Brent opines – Turnbull may well be a plucked rooster by then – replaced by another from the stellar Lib cast.
No 52
Diogenes, I was among those that applauded him for finally settling the issue once and for all. Yes, it was partly a last-ditch attempt to save his leadership, but it was also an effort to save the party from suffocating media speculation.
Compare and contrast the analysis during Nelson’s leadership with that under Turnbull. Now the focus is more on policy, not whether there are surreptitious efforts to undermine his leadership.
I wonder how Samantha Maiden is feeling this evening after writing this.
Boy, another one who thinks Robb is “a delightful and talented political strategist”. And she finishes with this;
It could be a long wait if they keep up their current performance.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_deploys_women_and_young_guns/
No 53
Steve, firstly, no-one denies that there is a climate and no-one denies that it changes. The skeptics, by and large, are critical of the human contribution. There is nothing wrong with skepticism, especially in science.
That said, whether Robb denies anthropogenic global warming or not, the reality is that both the Government and the Opposition agree that an emissions trading scheme should be introduced. Penny Wong should stop dithering and start giving Australians some information.
{Compare and contrast the analysis during Nelson’s leadership with that under Turnbull. Now the focus is more on policy, not whether there are surreptitious efforts to undermine his leadership.]
Give it time, GP, give it time.
I thought the ALP was going too fast… make up your mind GP
Loved the Helen Demidenko of Australian politics line by Swan today.
Bishop’s office have fessed up to the cut-n-paste
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24391138-5013404,00.html
Bishop says:
code for: my former speechwriter is now cleaning toilets at the Liberal Party headquarters.
GP at 50
The question, if you missed it, was “Out of touch with ordinary people”
How out of touch can you get, I hear 5 million Victorians saying.
No 60
Yes it is going too fast and there is surprisingly little detail given the haste at which they are proceeding.
No 62
Bryce, the football team preference of our leaders is inconsequential to the outcomes of elections. If you continue to pursue that line, I will have to conclude that you are delusional.
No 61
Well, I must say that Bishop has not started well. Plagiarising the WSJ and forgetting the official interest rates are, really, unforgivable gaffes for treasury spokeswoman.
How can it be going too fast if there isn’t any detail? GP, you are a walking contradiction.
GP with Robb and Minchin a snails pace would be too fast. They haven’t quite made it into this century yet and the further the debate goes the more out of touch they would look. They are both eminently unqualified for the climate change issue on any criteria.
code for = ” I told that speech writer today, thanks for taking the hit” and then let him write my next “impromptu utterance”
No 66
We know it’s going too fast because it intends to introduce the scheme in 2010. Firstly, there is no sufficient modelling, we don’t know the ETS framework, we don’t know the implications for heavy emitters, we don’t know whether the world will even reach agreement.
If I’m a walking contradiction, you’re living in a sphere of abject ignorance.
Thomas Paine @ 27
Please, say it isn’t so! Joe Hockey is the Avuncular Bear, the Barbecue Clown, the Grinning Aussie Trier (who can bring hurrahs and posh pig meat to any Lavender Bay fundraiser)!
(But yes, I concede, he’s also Howard Spawn.)
(I’m still gunning for the plastic comb salesman, Christopher Pyne.)
Well Turnbull has fallen at the first hurdle as far as I can tell, Julie Bishop, Andrew Robb and Nick Minchin are poor selections for someone who was relying on the economy and the environment to distinguish himself from Nelson’s feeble attempt as Leader.
Just on the pensioner squeal, it is somewhat worrying that the clerks of the House of Representatives and the Senate are of diverse opinion as to the constitutionality of the pension bill.
lol
how do you know what modelling has been done?
wouldn’t want to rush it GP
So we shouldn’t implement an ETS if the world doesnt? Is that Liberal policy?
No 71
Steve, just be honest: Turnbull will always fail in your eyes and spare us the senselessly foreboding commentary.
It was only a cheap stunt GP. The Bill was a scam to hide the do nothing of twelve years under Howard and cabinet rejecting Brough’s cabinet submission for a pension increase last year.
GP
Ones Lab and ones Lib. I’d be worried if they DID agree.
It’s a non event GP. The high court has acknowledged that there is an argument on both sides but that it is not in their juristiction and should be decided by the HoR. That’s the end of the stunt. And to be honest I don’t think Talcum will be sad to see the end of it.
Turnbull will fail in all eyes with this Shadow Cabinet GP. Pathetic is what it is.
Their opinions are completely irrelevant. It will never be brought on in the House, so it will never go to a vote, so it will never make its way back to the Senate.
No 73
Australia’s emissions are diminutive, so I would certainly argue, as an individual, that we should not act until the world reaches agreement.
However, the Liberal Party position is that any ETS should not be pursued with haste; rather that as much work as possible should be done to ensure that the policy framework is correct and proper to ensure that our economy is not harmed. Whether that results in Australia implementing and ETS before or after the rest of the world is not of concern.
Steve,
Considering Rudd won with probably the most pathetic opposition cabinet since 1977, I really don’t think it matters.
You need not worry about acting with Robb and Minchin with both feet on the brake, inaction will be the norm from this pair of denialists. The rest of the world will have no trouble staying ahead of their timetable.
No 80
Good point.
By the way, what ever happened to that “national broadband” I was expecting?
AC this change was supposed to enhance the Liberal’s electoral chances and they have bombed out.
No 81
What is your problem with skepticism? In no other field of science have I seen such dogmatic ad hominem attacks against those who dare offer a contrarian opinion.
Doesn’t say much for Howard’s cabinet if that’s your opinion AC
Contracts issued early next year
Much as I hate to agree with GP, he is right that all this frothing about Turnbull and his shadows is of no relevance to anything much. Rudd will win in 2010 if the electorate still has confidence in his leadership, and that will depend on the state of the economy and the effectiveness of his response to economic issues, which includes IR and the ETS. If the electorate no longer has confidence in Rudd, he will lose, so long as the opposition leader is minimally credible as an alternative. Turnbull is much the most credible leader the Libs have at present, so they will have to stick with him. Nelson was an accidental leader, and the last ten months have been a mere entr’acte between the Howard and Turnbull leaderships. The real contest to win in 2010 began last week.
Not much enjoying the debate over which shadow cabinet was the more “pathetic”. Find something interesting to argue about please.
Just thinking back on today, you’d have to say it was a pretty ordinary performance by the Opposition.
Poor questions, silly gaffes, endless points of order (all refused), adolescent interjections and finally the failure of their set-piece pensions bill to even be debated by the House.
Really, quite terrible. Let’s hope the Opposition improve and at least try to make a serious contribution.
We are PART of the world! You write about the world as if it is everything excluding us!
Oh we know this; we had 11.5 years of lack of haste.
Because what you are espousing is denialism which you are simply calling skepticism. Your belief that creationism is a possible alternative to evolution demonstrates that you do not understand how science works as an epistemology.
WONDERFUL! THANK YOU! You just gave it away; you are just being contrarian, you aren’t actually proposing anything supported by evidence. I congratulate you for finally being honest.
No 88
Hear, hear.
Not so sure, Dario. Several frontbenchers (including Howard himself) had ministerial experience. Unlike their 2007 counterparts, they could articulate policies, actually developed theoretical underpinnings and didn’t rely on vacous and quiet frankly irritating catchphrases like “education revolution” and “I have a plan for the nation’s economy” (LOL!)
Steve, where’s the “bomb out”? Don’t tell me your relying on that ridiculous Essential “Research” poll which is quite frankly laughable. Anyone who honestly thinks that the Coalition’s primary vote is 33% should be put down.
No 90
Bushfire Bill, it seems you have a short memory regarding the adolescent and indolent behaviour of the Government regarding Turnbull’s wealth, ego and his Venetian sojourn. Albanese, the principal offender!
Being skeptical about whether there’s MSG in your wontons is a little less dangerous than being skeptical about the threat of global annihilation (as Nietzsche might have said).
(Stakes, old son. Consider the stakes.)
Sorry, William. Just got your message after I posted.
Turnbull might be the most acceptable face available to the LNP at the moment (though those personality polls say something different) – he could however lose further credibility fast if he has to be careful of the right or if he follows Nelson’s tactics. They could ruin their own best bet.
FWIW I think his attack on Rudd going to NY was silly and counter productive considering the environment. It may backfire as images and stories come back from there on his activities etc. I know he was trying to downsell the importance of the trip and thus downplay any Rudd kudos but…it was counter intuitive.
The opposition shadows are just new in their positions so will need a little time to get up to speed and the same with Turnbull.
No 91
You have completely misrepresented my argument as to creationism v evolution. I did say during that argument that so long as evolution was taught as the principal scientific thesis, I had no problem with children also being exposed to other views.
Furthermore, I’m not repackaging denial as skepticism. Those are your words. I’m simply saying that your virulent distaste and vulgar denigration of people who old opposite views is as absurd as it is obscene. Science is not a religion; and nor should it be expounded religiously.
GP at 53, well done on having the guts to criticise Bishop. Youve gone up in my estimation!!
No 99
I still think she has the capacity for the job, however. If these errors continue to emerge, my view may change though.
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