The latest quarterly Newspoll survey of Queensland voting intention continues the national state-level trend, with Labor’s primary vote plunging five points to 38 per cent against 41 per cent for the newly merged Liberal National Party. Labor maintains a narrow 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The previous survey had Labor leading 55-45 from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor (itself down from 50 per cent in January-March), 26 per cent for the Liberals and 12 per cent for the Nationals. Anna Bligh’s approval rating is down eight points to 54 per cent, but she leads Lawrence Springborg as preferred premier 53 per cent (down seven points) to 27 per cent (up three points).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland
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80 Comments
“would struggle to be re-elected without support from the Greens.”
Good to see the media paying attention and aknowlodging
The Greens are the deciders, ha ha ha.
Well really what you mean is that the Greens voters play a large part in the electoral process in choosing how to direct their preferences. The actual party I would still argue has little impact on deciding the election.
Still, all things change and the coming years will be very interesting electorally.
On an unrelated topic, had some discussions with colleagues who seem to believe the Stanhope Government is on its way out in the ACT. I find that hard to believe but it will certainly be fun to watch. Can I just say that the ACT Liberals election slogan of “Vote Liberal to get Zed instead” is so tacky I like it.
The media can ignore and dismiss The Greens as having little/no influence, as do rusted on party spin doctors, but the facts suggest otherwise.
What I really mean “the only polls that counts” NT, WA, Mayo The Greens vote is increacing massively, and the media are sleeping on the job, and hardly mention the biggest trend in Australian votes in many many years.
margaret
1 vote for the green = 1 vote for the ALP, it has been that way for the last 20 years
The greens are irrelevant
Damn I had money on NSW being the next government to fall
With OPV and the LNP more than likely to drive home the “Just Vote 1″ strategy. I think this could end up being really close.
dovif,
If you don’t understand the electoral system we have in Australia
perhaps you should not make shch ridiculous assertions.
While Green preferences might benefit Labor more than others, you and all voters make a choice where your preferences go, if anywhere.
I know it bugs you, the landslide in Green votes, but don’t feel so bad,
you’r not alone in dispairing at how well the Green are actually doing in the face of little posative media, no developer donations, on the smell of an oily rag, by being honest, not lieing.
The Greens will be around for some time yet, leading the way,
better learn to live with them, friend.
Hutch
I’m not sure how a “Just Vote 1″ campaign benefits the LNP, considering they are likely to be first or second in primaries in most seats.
A “Just Vote 1″ strategy from the LNP could actually help the ALP pick up Gladstone, where they were ahead on primaries last time.
I guess the argument could be made that the LNP pushing the “Just Vote 1″ strategy could encourage Greens voters to do the same but:
1. I don’t how likely it is Greens voters will listen to what the LNP tells them to do
and
2. The seats where the Greens vote is likely to have the biggest impact (South Brisbane, Brisbane Central, Mt Coot-tha) are generally won by the ALP either on the primary vote or very close to it.
It looks like the new look LNP is heading for victory at next years Queensland State Election. I expect the LNP to pick up a swag of Regional seats from Labor and Independents and win possibly all of the Gold and Sunshine Coast seats the newly created ones plus the labor held seats. Labor should hold up well in the metropolitan area holding all the formerly safe Liberal seats like Ashgrove, Mt Coottha and Yeroongpilly however it will lose overall because the LNP will only need a complement of Brisbane seats like the National Party did when it ruled Queensland in its own right (1983-89). Look for these seats Pine Rivers, Aspley, Greenslopes, Mt Gravatt(now Sunnybank), Mansfield, Springwood, Toowong (now Indooroopilly)and Redlands to fall to the LNP as the National Party held these seats in the 1980s.
One poor poll for Labor and it’s all over red rover?? Wishful thinking more likely.
Remember, Howard was down and out with 55/45 AGAINST him time and time again over the years. But come the campaign – those polls counted for nothing.
margaret
No the Greens gives out HtV cards at elections and they always preference Labor, so they are not a political force, they are more like the single issue preference feeders in the senate.
Yes some voters can direct their preference, but a lot blindly follows the HtV cards
For example the following people was elected on Greens preference
Belinda “do you know who I am” Neal, The Jockstrap Police Minister, Mark (I like children) Ortholopolis
Even when a state government is as corrupt and useless as the NSW ALP, we knows the Greens will preference them is the next ALP election.
Lets see the Greens for what they are …. that is preference feeder for the ALP
This definitely doesn’t look too good for Bligh. That prophecy of the Tories taking back all the states may come to pass.
dovif,
Sorry you are wrong, this is part of the misinformation that The Green have had to put up with for years.
The Greens don’t always preference Labor.
As for being a single issue party perhaps you should update your self,
The Greens have more thought out, transparent policies than the others, have a look :-
http://greens.org.au/policies/snappies
A vote for the Greens is a vote against Labor in Melbourne (Federal), Melbourne (State), Richmond, Brunswick, Northcote, and a couple of inner-city seats in NSW as well as the Senate, all mainland state Legislative Councils and the Tasmanian House of Assembly.
dovif,
Further reading on how The Green are not a one issue party, enjoy.
http://qld.greens.org.au/policies/Qld-policies
Anyone who thinks that Greens preferences will save the QLD Labor government from losing the next state election is kidding themselves. Preference flows will be thick on the ground in seats that the LNP won’t win anyway. Seats that matter will go to the LNP on high primary votes and greens leakage will keep the ALP down.
All Gold Coast and Sunshine coast seats will go to the LNP. Most regional Labor seats will return to the LNP. They only need a few of the outer suburban seats to wrest power. Brisbane is not the pivotal battle that people make it out to be in Queensland, the most decentralised state in the country.
I never said the green are a single issue party, I said they acts like a preference feeding single issue party, so please read my email
As for the seats where it is Labor Vs Green on a 2PPP, that is not the point, for example the Libs preference the Green in those seat so they might beat labor in those sears. However if it was a Liberal Vs Labor vote. The green are so predictable that Labor takes those votes for granted
This means that Green will never have any power, all it is in a preference feeder
dovif said
#4 “1 vote for the green = 1 vote for the ALP”
#10 “the Greens gives out HtV cards at elections and they always preference Labor”
These statements are NOT correct.
We are accustomed with untruths being told about The Greens,
but such rubbish is not appropriate for this highly distinguished site.
To predict the result of the next state elections, one to be held late next year and the other in early 2010 on polls taken in September is 2008 is silly. Atm you would say they are struggling but let’s not get carried away.
Ryan
What are the Labor held seats on the Sunshine Coast?
This type of stuff always seems to happen in Qld state elections, the LNP are going to win, will it happen this time? Probably not.
Oh great, we’ve descended into “yes, greens are good, no, greens are bad” already
That was quick
No 17
Margaret, they are correct. Verified by looking at the 2007 federal election results which saw the Greens help Labor lurch into office, even in Bennelong.
This discussion on Green influence/preferences is either academic or on the wrong thread. Queensland has Optional Preferential Voting.
I would have to question the motives for the untruths being slung around.
It could be just ignorance or just the usual smear tactics that so discredit the old LIB/LAB parties.
The amount of sensitivity shown by some, and accusations of not being relevant, just goes to show how relevant and influential The Greens are.
No 23
Margaret, the Greens are essentially the new Labor Left. The real untruth is your indignation.
Tell Wayne Goss that Green preferences always help Labor.
Given the “Greens bashing”, as a long time lurker, I feel moved to quote Mahatma Gandhi:
“First they ignore you.
Then they laugh at you.
Then they attack you.
Then you win.”
Guess which stage the Greens Party is at? It sure isn’t stage 1 or 2.
The Greens are relevant, Margaret, and there is still much potential for growth in support – unlike the LNP which are steadily going backwards, Federally, with the old guard still calling the shots.
But the fracturing of the non-conservative votes (Lab/Green) in the states with opt/pref will certainly benefit the conservatives.
Anyone care to guess how many Liberal independents there will be at the next Qld election?
Margaret you seem to be at a loss at what the Green is
I got a htv card from the Greens at the last federal election, I will give you 1 guess which party got the Green’s preference
Also you can also view the upperhouse card to see where Green preference vote
Margaret wake up, you are in the left wing of the ALP
Margaret! I have 20 years of watching Australian politics (very sad) and while its true the Greens do sometimes run an open tickets but for the most part that put the ALP ahead of the Liberal Party therefore they are seen as an alternative for ALP voters just as the Democrats used to be an alternative for disgruntled Liberal voters.
The Green vote while is very strong and is increasing, is in part due to the dismise of the Democrats and both sides moving towards a more conservative policy outlook.
The Greens are not the first and wont be the last to fill the role of a third party, many of the inner city areas have a long history of third candidates just as rural Australia has a long history of multi conservative candidates.
I will repeat what I have said many times before the day the Greens boarden the policy outlook from opposing all development and supporting fringe ideas to a more even balanced approach is the day the major parties will start fretting about losing a swag of seats to the Greens.
This isn’t because the major parties are arrogant but both major parties have been around for 100 years or so in one form or another and have seen many political trends not just here but in other similar countries the world over and because they are generally very broad in their outlook they can see the strengths and weakness of the Greens.
Lets take Melbourne Ports a seat that is demographically a Liberal seat but is a safe ALP seat with a very strong Green vote, the ALP would be more concerned by the Liberal Party than the Greens for the ALP would be looking at the demographics. The Greens do very well amoungst the younger population but we all know that they will generally move on so while the Greens may think appealing to this group will win them the seat they overlook the very thing that makes it a ALP V Liberal seat
Its the Economy stupid! most people living in Melbourne Ports while caring about the enviroment also aspire to live the lives of there chose yet when you look at the Greens what you see is high taxing and a set of soical policies which don’t match the aspirations.
Sure the Greens will continue to poll well but if your social and economic policies were so good then the ALP and the Liberal Party would have copied them.
SNIP: Off-topic comment deleted – The Management.
The Greens contested 27 of the 28 seats with margins of less than 10 per cent at the 2006 election, and directed preferences to Labor in eight of these. There were another nine in which they MAY have given them third preference after an independent – probably in two or three of them. So in probably about 15 or 16 of the 28 most marginal seats, the Greens recommended an exhausted vote. It seems about 15 per cent of Greens voters follow the HTV card. In 2006 they got a bit under 8 per cent of the vote: with Labor in decline they can expect 10 per cent or more at the next election (see WA and NT). So the Greens will have about 1.5 per cent of the vote at their disposal, to give or withhold from Labor, where they see fit to use it.
mexicanbeemer #3o
Thanks for your thoughtful post
You are right about the future for the Greens, except times have moved on a bit more than you think.
The Greens are well settled in on the road to having a broad, diverse, array of policies and well thought out strategies
The Greens never “opposed all development”, only over development at the expense of the environment.
For quite some time now the major parties have been “fretting” , as their hysterical dirty tricks campaigns have shown.
I can’t deny that The Green might of had some “fringe” ideas, but as an observer of some time you must have seen those ideas become mainstream, and adopted by the LIB/LAB Party.
Surely with The Greens on the scene things have improved.
Margaret
a responsible party would not have allowed old Communists like Lee Rhiannon into their midst – Lee was a loyal Marxist for nearly thirty years and her parents were members of the Central Committee of the CPA
MHW,
The Cold Wars over, look under the bed …anything there?
Now you’ve made me think, socilising Wall St., who’s idea was that?
There’s a nasty little neo-con under there, gripping his hammer and sickle!
“I want them to go. Go, join the “new political party”. Hope they call it the “New National Party” and Bruce McIver is their President and they choose the colour green. Then we’ll WHIP THEIR ARSE at the next election.
Here’s to NOT being an agrarian socialist bumpkin. Huzzah! ”
Pres Young Libs Qld.
There is a long way to go in the “merger” of the Libs and Nats in Qld. I doubt it will end happily.
IW are they tool for eating the watermellon under MHW’s bed?
Thats all very well Ruawake but the Qld Young Liberal President confused me how can they choose the colour green when the Green Party sprung up and stole that colour from its original owner blue will do just fine at the next state election it will no longer confuse electors afterall whats in a name and whats in a colour.
Yes, the hammer is used to smash the pips. (Nothing must regenerate. Wall Street’s Scorched Earth.)
To be fair to the Greens! both major parties from time to time come out with loopy ideas and select MPs that you really wouldn’t want running the country.
The Liberals gave us a loopy policy only recently (Workchoices) and I think you will find a few pollies who from time to time have belonged to loopy outfits.
Julia Gillard and Peter Costello have something in common there but it doesn’t change the fact that they have turned out to be good contributors to the nations politics.
GP
The location of ATCs in National Party, Liberal Party or marginal seats is obscene.
Oops wrong thread sorry.
THE Liberal National Party has suffered a major blow with Cunningham MP Stuart Copeland revealing he will retire at the next election…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24395306-3102,00.html
Stuart Copeland decided he will retire at the next election.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-mp-retires-after-seat-pulled-out-from-under-him/2008/09/24/1222217296526.html
I find the commentary on these state polls fascinating. Why are the state ALP governments apparently in so much trouble, when they are leading in the polls, when Howard was apparently still going to win even when he was so far behind?? I just dont get it
Andrew! I suspect that after being so dominated for so long people are getting a little excited that we now have several real political contest also some of these state governments were over acheiving in the polls largley because Howard was never that populor therefore the state governments had addition support, also I would suggest that in some cases the age of the governments are catching up with them and as is often the case as a government ages its enemies start to outstrip its fans.
It turns out that this result has been achieved to some extent not by any improvement by the Liberal National Party themselves but by them hiving off the political hard work to consultants from “Australian Public Affairs”.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24398959-5006786,00.html
Some of the crap in yesterday’s AUSTRALIAN was an embarrassment!
Journalists getting themselves into orgasmic fits of excitement over the supposed comeback of the Libs – not pretty to read!
Steve, as per the article you posted:
“The email reveals that the LNP plans to contest 66 of the 89 state seats in the election due in the next 12 months.”
And what of the other 23? Will these just be abandoned to the ALP?
Dovif drivels:
GRN don’t always preference the ALP. For example in Blacktown at the last state election GRN did not preference anyone.
Obviously GRN will on most occasions preference the least worst option from their point of view especially where that is strategic for them to do so.
At least the GRNs do not do something stupid like preference a candidate from a tiny right wing Xtian cult in the vague hope of re-electing a stupid, lazy, right wing, socially facist, SDA union hackette.
It does appear that what they mean, Grant, is the seats not held by sitting members. Sitting members are automatically selected without a preselection bunfight as per the Liberal National Party constitution.
On another development yesterday, it does appear Stuart Copeland is going to sit it out as the defacto hard working Member for Toowoomba North. Horan must be going to retire at the next election or shortly after if:
a) The LNP don’t win the twenty seats needed to form Government or
b) He does not get given a ministry.
Copeland can just sit in Toowoomba South campaigning full time and stare down anyone else who might want preselection and try to win on the basis of renewal in the Liberal National Party. It is an old trick but a goodie and a bit of insider information as to just when Horan will retire goes a long way.
@ 10 Dovif pork pies:
At the 2003 NSW general election the state electoral district of Swansea was won by the incumbent Orkopolis with 55% first preference votes therefore a distribution was not required. However the electoral office did conduct an exhaustive distribution to determine the 2PP vote. The GRN preferences were the last to be distributed and 53% of their ballots were exhausted. Of the remaining 1523, 1176 were directed to the ALP.
In the case of the division of Robertson at the 2007 Federal general election, the ALP candidate’s election was indeed due to an 80% preference flow from the 7.2% of electors who had given their first preference to the GRN candidate. It was a close run thing however, and had the Liberals done their job and run someone other than the incumbent time serving cypher their candidate may well have secured more preferences from the even more minor parties and rendered the GRN vote nugatory.
In any event get your facts right son and try to understand that even committed ALP voters held their nose whilst casting their ballot for La Neal.
Thanks Steve, I should have thought of that.
If there is anyone who has not had the joy of reading Springborg’s inaugural speech, here it is:
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/documents/memberBio/InauguralSpeech/Springborg.pdf
In it we learn he has never written a speech in his life including this one and doesn’t intend to ever do so. His thoughts on what age he will get out of politics and why are compulsive reading.
#55
From Lawrence’s maiden speech:
“Australia’s south-east Asian neighbours—countries such as Japan—are
following the path…”
Hopefully Lawrence has gotten himself a new speechwriter by now.
albatross
thanks for providing the support for my argument
in both cases Green htv tells their member (who followed it) to vote 80/20 for such fine members of the human species
albertross 51, never truer words have been said, especially your LAST sentence!
Alastair Furnival is an interesting chap. Has Santo taken over the Nats?
ruawake, I am not familiar with the work of Alastair, what is his claim to fame?
According to Queensland Liberals, Australian Public Affairs will be controlling the process of candidate selection for all seats where there isn’t a sitting Liberal or Nationals member. Which, as the email indicates, is quite a lot.
Who is Andrew Bibb? He’s a former Campaign and Policy Manager for the Nats and adviser to Lawrence Springborg. And he’s controlling preselections for the “new” party.
Who are Australian Public Affairs? The chairman is Alastair Furnival, a hard-right Liberal Party functionary closely aligned with Santo Santoro, for whom he was Chief of Staff during Santoro’s thankfully abbreviated stint as Minister for Aged Care. Furnival was also editor of The Conservative, under the stewardship of — you guessed it — Santoro (other editors of included Connie Fierravanti-Wells and former Howard staffer Gerry Wheeler, suggesting The Reactionary would have been a more appropriate title).
Courtesy Crikey.
Yes, they do seem an interesting bunch. I’m sure they will spend Clive’s money wisely.
http://www.apa.net.au/staff_profiles.html
Apparently only 2000 of the 5500 Liberal members have joined the LNP. I smell a new “liberal” party brewing.
Yes, which makes this poll all the more interesting and more the work of spin doctors than anything the Liberal National Party has done in the past few months. I have read all the question times in Hansard since the merger and fail to see any difference from the ones I read prior to the merger.
Either there will be a new Liberal Party or a nasty courtcase I’d suggest ruawake. The Federal Executive of the Liberal Party was supposed to meet in Canberra last Friday to endorse the merger through Turnbull going to the National Council of the Liberal Party but I have not seen a word about this meeting in the local papers since the event.
steve
Federal Liberal MP Ian Macfarlane says the party’s federal executive will fast-track the ratification of the Liberal National Party (LNP).
Liberals against the merger were hoping party bosses would delay moves to recognise the party, formed by the amalgamation of the Queensland Liberals and Nationals in July.
But Mr Macfarlane says instead of sending the decision through federal council, they have decided to look at quicker methods.
“They recognise firstly there is extraordinarily strong support for the LNP is Queensland and that on that basis we need to resolve any uncertainty that surrounds the federal status of the LNP,” he said.
“Having looked at the process it may be possible not to require the use of a federal council meeting.”
The mess continues, McFarlane is trying to sneak it through the backdoor. Yep it will end up in court AND spawn a new party.
So Macfarlane looks like he isn’t confident that the numbers are there on the Liberal Party Federal Executive to ratify the merger.
In a Federal sense it does not matter until the next election, because existing LNP members are allowed to be members of another party.
The preselection mess will be the real test.
Hey steve – I wonder if this will get more people to post on this thread?
Greens Boo
@ 57 Fetid persists
I dare say you will stick to your own fantasies whatever evidence is presented to the contrary.
You cannot say without evidence of the actual 2004 HTV that GRN voters gave their second preference to Orkopoulos. The GRN candidate was the last eliminated in the preference check and so we do not know if Mr Orkopoulos was preferenced second or fifth. I would venture to suggest that it would have been after the DEM and SOS candidates and before the PHON and AAFI. In any event he was at the time without any public taint and won the poll handily on first preferences.
You should note that at the 2007 state general election in the district of Swansea the GRN candidate was again the last eliminated. That time the preference count was necessary and GRN preferences which were not exhausted flowed 2 to 1 in favour of the Liberal candidate.
In federal elections voters are in order to cast a formal ballot constrained to indicate their preferences in full. What would you have GRN electors do in Robertson? Cast an informal vote? Use their preferences to return to parliament a candidate who proposed policies and held views which were, we might suppose, diametrically opposed to theirs? At least La Neal had formally agreed to support in parliament policies which although would fall short of what most GRN voters would want would be kind of acceptable. I would suggest that blame for any failure to detect any possible flaws in her temperament should laid at the door of 227 Sussex Street, Sydney and not be made the responsibility of voters whose only desire was to rid this country of the most reprehensible and odious shower that had ruled over this wide brown land.
^^^ I mean 337 Sussex Street
albertross,
Why is it those neo-cons never let the truth, facts and evidence get in the way of their fantasies?
That’s probably why the’re slowly becoming extinct.
Dovif
Just picking up on one point you made about following HTV cards. People are creatures of habit or perhaps they just like the power our great democracy gives them and want to indicated preferences.
At the 2007 state election in the district of Blacktown the GRNs did not allocate preferences. This decision was, incidentally, made by Blacktown Greens members in a secret ballot conducted at an ordinary meeting.
I handed out HTVs on election day. More than a few electors approached me to ensure that the suggested vote was valid. When they were counted it emerged that only 58% exhausted, and of the rest 20% went to CDP, 19% to Lib and 60% to ALP.
Go figure…
Former Howard government minister Mal Brough has quit the presidency of the Queensland Liberal Party.
Mr Brough was elected to the position earlier this year, before the party merged with the Nationals to form the Liberal National Party (LNP).
This afternoon, Mr Brough said he had enough of bickering over who will pay the Queensland Liberal Party’s outstanding debts.
“Well, I’ve just had a gutful, quite frankly. I think this whole thing is a bit of a shambles,” he told 4BC radio.
“You try and do the right thing and, quite frankly, at this point it’s all over the shop and it’s no wonder voters get so disenchanted with the non-Labor side of politics.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brough-quits-liberal-presidency/2008/09/25/1222217423498.html
Queensland Liberal Party debts? Perhaps they will deal with them them the National Party way…
Socialise them…
Albert the Liberals let their candidates overspend their budgets in the last campaign on the basis of a Galaxy Poll the weekend before the 2006 election was called that had similar figures to this Newspoll and wasted $1 Million dollars on the Gold Coast Council elections without even winning a ward let alone the mayoralty. Great economic managers indeed!
Now we have a bunfight over who has the right to derigister the Liberal Party.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24403309-5006786,00.html
I wonder if Mal’s departure would have been influenced in any way by a request from Alan to be introduced to Sue?
Mal’s dead folks- Mal’sd dead. AS is the QLD National and Liberal parties. Additionally, consultants do actually “facilitate” the preselections – not selecting candidates. Consultants do organise the running of preselections. Labor do it, Dems DID it, Libs do it, LNP will be doing it. Bernard’s political judgement is as sharp as a lemon. That’s just one of the reasons I cancelled my subscription to Crikey. As for spin doctors- QLD Labor Government has over 300 and counting. They get paid better than QLD Health workers too.
No they don’t.
ruawake: “No they don’t.”
Hawker-Britton would be amazed. Their capital was built on it.
Talk about a lot of worry over nothing on this tread the LNP is a structurally sound new political force and i’m sure it will deregister the former Queensland Liberal Party quickly, Preselect the best conservative minded candidates for the next election, pay off the former Queensland Liberal Party debts and sell the former Queensland Liberal Party headquarters in trinity lane, South Brisbane. The Southern Liberals will recognise the new party and if it doesn’t it won’t matter Queenslanders make their own decisions and the LNP is our new conservative force.