Roy Morgan has released a mid-week phone survey of 574 respondents on attitudes to the party leaders, which has 55 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd against 30 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull. Kevin Rudd has a 55 per cent approval rating and 31 per cent disapproval; Malcolm Turnbull’s figures are 43 per cent and 24 per cent. The sample produced a two-party result of 57-43 in favour of Labor: no further detail on voting intention is provided.
UPDATE: Aristotle in comments points out that primary vote figures from the survey are available on Morgan’s poll trends page: Labor 46.5 per cent, Coalition 34.5 per cent, Greens 8 per cent, others 4.5 per cent.
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GP @ 249
Sadly I have to agree. The approving comments from business groups says it all.
However, it might be a mistake to write off unions already – their Workchoices campaign indicated that, given the resources, mobilising the community can bring about change. And recent EBA’s for teachers suggest unions can still achieve things for their members.
Mind you GP, if the unions got all their own way you would be on here complaining incessantly. “Rudd is a puppet of the unions”.
I think it shows how middle of the road it is. A lite Workchoices beats the s…t out of the full very unfair version.
Sadly not much for the students though.
I generally think Shaun Carney is a good writer. His piece (not on line) about the AWB Commission findings “Decline Of Governance In Australia” was Walkley Award material.
But Carney’s Achille’s Heel is Peter Costello, possibly because he wrote the first biography of Cozzie. Carney made a confident prediction 2 weeks ago that for the ensuing fortnight it would be all-Costello, all the time in the media, once the memoirs were published. With the book now out the front of my local bookstore with the macrame how-to’s and the Angler’s Guide To NSW Waterways, and $24.95 at that, I guess he was wrong.
Today, Carney laments the onset of Messiah-ism and the personal “narrative”. “Whither democracy?” he seems to be asking. This is a little rich from someone who literally wrote the book on political biography.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/death-of-debate-20080926-4osm.html
Two weeks ago Carney opined about the alcopops tax being dead in the water because it was so unpopular with the electorate. He had nothing to back that up, except Liquor Industry and Coalition spin about the reasons Gippsland swung away from the government. Turns out Shaun is just another pundit, making it up as he goes along, like all the rest. He soberly informs us why things are happening and why they are not… all out of his own head. Newspoll this week tells us the alcopops tax is approved by a robust majority of all voters (and presumably an even bigger majority of those who have teenage daughters).
Yes, I know his (and the others’) columns are labelled “Opinion”, but when was the last time anyone saw the words “In my opinion…” in any of them? Instead, we get pummelled with bare-faced statements of fact, as if they are etched in stone, Moses-wize.
Meanwhile at the News Ltd. bunker, Shanahan yesterday told us that taxpayers would be wondering why Rudd bothered to address the UN. Oh really? He’s spoken to a scientific sample of a couple of thousand of them, has he? Since yesterday? Hmm…
The one that still sticks in my craw was the ABC news headline after the 2006 Budget, “They’re on a winner… and they know it.” When I emailed and said this type of language should have been nowhere near a TV news bulletin intro, read as “news”, I was politely told to naff-off. They had experts in politics, and anyway it was only their opinion (which was precisely my point, actually). That particular expert, Jim Middleton, is now wandering the China Seas, filing unwatched reports for “Asia-Pacific Focus”. Half his luck.
Then there was the narrative about how bad Labor was doing in the polls in 2006 and through the first half of 2007. Another ABC brainstorm, although clearly inspired by the “we own Newspoll” gurus at The Australian. Totally wrong, but somehow it stuck for quite a long time after its Use-By date.
A running commentary throughout this year has been how “Labor has wrecked the economy”. If you scratch the opinionistas hard you’ll get a grudging admission that they don’t actually think it’s true, but that * the public * thinks it’s true, and that’s all that matters. It’s not for them to actually educate the public to the contrary. They’re commentators, not participators (try to stifle your guffaws please). Whatever… I think this one’s on it’s last legs too. Here’s why.
You could possibly argue that the odd interest rate tweak here or petrol price hike there might (or might not have) been handled better by the new socialist mob, but in the face of the economic tsunami that’s just swamped us (and there may be more to come), a bit of contentious fluffing of lines by Wayne Swan pales into insignificance. Labor now has the chance to re-write the narrative; to go back over the past year and to put it all in the context of the Sub-Prime Crisis, out of which we seem to have a good chance of emerging relatively intact thanks to some bi-partisan measures taken a few months ago to quietly amend fiscal regulations, allowing the government to swap cash for AAA mortgage securities held by the small banks and independent mortgage companies. Incidentally, it might be time to polish up the “Coalition is wrecking the Surplus” trumpets again, as we’re going to need every cent of it to buy those securities and still have some slush left over.
Paradoxically (I was going to use the word “ironically” but I’m trying to break the habit of decades of misuse), the Wall St. Meltdown might just shut the economy whingers and carpers up for good and leave Labor on top as reasonable, even prescient economic managers. Maybe slow-and-steady really does win the race?
Wrapping up a paradox inside an enigma and yes, lacing it with irony, everyone’s hero, Peter Costello, doesn’t seem to have been the one man publicity and bookselling juggernaut that Shaun Carney, pundit and political savant, thought he would be. The book’s been a flop and Cozzie has retired to the back bench, never to return. It’s funny though, that Costello was right about one thing: there really *was* an “economic tsunami” heading our way.
Thing was, the Libs and Nats waited for The Wave to hit for so long that Labor won in a trot, on a cry of “What are they scared of? We Want an election!”. The public started believing that even Labor couldn’t f**k up the economy as bad as Cozzie said they would (and, whew, they didn’t). The meltdown that Peter wanted so bad has now come to benefit Swan if he plays his cards right. Sub-Prime is a plenary indulgence for all economic sins, going begging, and cheap too… like those old scapulas the Catholic schoolkids among us used to buy, believing that the purchase of one would mean we could wank as much as we liked, and still go to heaven.
Of course there’ll be new narratives, but the old Labor-bashing ones of “bad economic managers”, “tourist Prime Minister” and, Shaun Carney’s favourite, “the unpopular alcopops tax” and its Budget-orientated ilk are heading for the Big Otto Bin of political discourse. Soon we’re going to see most of the Budget passed, the surplus (now urgent and coveted by the public) maintained, plus a consequent blossoming of love for Labor as people wake up and realise that we could well have just dodged a bullet economically. It may not have been entirely Rudd and Swan’s doing, but they were the guys that had their fingers on the Ferrari at the appropriate time.
The past couple of weeks have shown us the perils of procrastination in the hulk-like shape of Peter Costello drifting off over the political horizon as the tsunami he predicted helps the other side instead, the downside of opinionation as narratives expire in bucketloads, and the end of the first chapter of “Rudd Era” history. Dennis will be shuffling his little pieces of paper hoping for inspiration. Shaun will have to look for a new hero to write about. And Labor just might be able to start governing the country…. in my opinion, of course.
In a piece bitchily titled “Two Cheers for Rudd”, St. Paul Kelly, grudingly gives Rudd a pretty big tick:
The crown’s already on his head, actually. It may have landed there due to a combination of good luck, bad luck and nervous economic conservatism, but it’s there just the same. All Rudd has to do now is tighten the chin-strap and it’ll be hard to knock off. Break out the alcopops. Let’s have some fizz.
Heh, heh, the public are unlikely to want to change horses in mid-tsunami.
I find the way the MSM simply accepts whatever the spin is to be — strange?
Turnbull’s front bench was acclaimed as ‘focussing on the economy’.
Who made that declaration? The Liberal Party press release – and the media just accepted it, despite the lack of economic credentials on the front bench.
Then they pontificate that it’s their job to report and analyse, not ours.
Well, happy to let them do it – but they haven’t so far.
Zoom
the chance to catch them out (ala nelson being harassed by neale) is there every time.
It takes commitment and a bit of work (emails,calls,letters,posting on multiple blogs etc) but as was proven with “neale v nelson” shite, if you get on it early you can squash it before it gets legs.
I recieved some great emails from people who were concerned and jumped on the bandwagon (particular from the two friends on the flight) and posting for 10 hours or so on various blogs smacked that smear down good.
We can all be “media overseers” the only thing is whether you then do something about it!
256:
Well, I did some original research myself. I mosied down to the local bookshop and saw Cozzie’s tome out the front for $24.95. Previous visits saw it drop from $49.95 over a few days.
From this I made the reasonable deduction that Peter Costello is of little interest to even the Liberals in my (very) leafy suburb in Sydney, and of none to the Battlers out in the hinterland.
Thus, all the pundits’ pontificating and supposition over the past 10 months about Costello as “Messiah”, speculating on the big move he’d be making to co-incide with the book release, based on nothing more than wishful thinking, has been conclusively proved to be (and I use the Latin term), crapola.
All they had to do was read the polls, their own polls, the ones they “own”. We Bludgers looked at the same evidence they had in front of them, over the same period, and knew their predictions were on a hiding to nothing. Yet we still got scolded for being unprofessional muckrakers who parasite off their good work and “insider” connections etc. etc.
Shanahan’s audio piece yesterday showed what a disorganised piece of negativity wrapped up in a cloak of professionalism he really is. Every third word was “uhm..”, every fourth word was “aah…” and his conclusions were wrong (if statistics on his wrongness are any guide). I’m amazed they still have the piece linked in the on-line front page. Here we see Dennis Shanahan LITERALLY making it up as he goes along. He wasn’t even reading from notes! This was Shanahan unplugged, straight into the squwark box.
It’s actually a great insight into how his mind works. He had one key message: “Rudd bolted to the airport” (as if Rudd was “escaping” or feeling guilty for being in NY). Once he’d got that out, it was all hesitant padding, “uhms..” and “aahs…”. No argument. No evidence. Just a complete fairy story on his part, already overshadowed by events. With a little nasty sting in the tail that Rudd was using a taxpayer-finded VIP jet to race back for the Grand Final, this little piece of prissiness was complete.
There have been a few questions lately about why so much concern over The Australian. “Don’t buy it!” and so on. But the turkies who write for it, and the rest, like even the usually reliable Shaun Carney’s poor efforts over the past few weeks, are the ones who have arrogated to themselves the right to scribble the first draft of history. If they’re not challenged here, who’ll do it for us?
Now that Tim Dunlop’s blogs have closed down, there is one less place left to get rapid, interactive and decent lefty criticism. You can bet the pundits will be reading. Tell ‘em off. Maybe some of it will stick and we might get an improvement in quality (yeah, I know…)
It wouldn’t be hard, starting from their current position of being wrong almost every time they go near a keyboard, or in Dennis’ case, rambling the latest Canberra talking points into a mobile phone. He asks why Rudd bothered to go. I wonder if Dennis ever asked himself the same question?
September, 2001: P.M. Howard flies to Washington and New York to kiss the feet of the high and mighty amidst the rubble of the WTC and is feted by the MSM as a Messiah for his prescient timing.
September, 2008: P.M. Rudd flies to Washington and New York to network with the world’s bankers amidst the rubble of Wall Street and is mocked by the MSM for not attending QT.
It seems they prefer a frequent liar to a frequent flier.
… and for not arguing the toss with certified fruitcake, Fielding, and being humiliated in the process… “Let them eat cake: While the world melts down Mr. Rudd, afer cancelling his trip to the centre of world finance in an incompetent panic, has been meeting with Mr. Nobody Fielding trying to get his alcopops tax through…”
Fielding will have to allow the budget to pass now. Events have overtaken him.
The Australian is NOT the MSM, thanks.
But they set much of the agenda, like it or not… particularly at the ABC. Half their journos are in an ABC studio, or on a talk-back phone line on any given day.
Anyway, in view of your earlier (quite valid I think) criticisms about concentrating on the OO, I brought up Carney from Fairfax as another example. These guys have been getting it so wrong, for so long, with no evidence to back them up… it’s a scandal, yet it becomes common wisdom unless it’s called.
If you can stomach it, have a listen to Shanahan making it up as he goes along. You can hear him striving for negatives.
http://media.theaustralian.com.au/multimedia/2008/09/26-shanahan/index.html
I get my news from The Onion.
ruawake,
So it looks as though the three of us are “Scorpio’s”.
Seems as though Turnbull is the odd man out though!
Checking that the link actually worked, I only noticed the headline for the first time:
Let me see… “Let’s criticise Rudd for saying he’s going to NY to contribute to debate about the global economic crisis, and for actually speaking about it, by being snarky and claiming the global economic crisis overshadowed his address on… the global economic crisis. He should have stayed home and not dealt with the global economic crisis so we could criticise him for not dealing with the global economic crisis.”
Too stupid for words.
Scorpio
does being on the cusp count (libra side of course)
Paul Kelly is perhaps the best political writer at News Ltd, and he usually gives Rudd a fair go!
Well, I suppose “Two Cheers For Rudd” is better than a Bronx cheer.
BTW, re. the $4 billion non-bank lenders assistance.
Another government promise fulfilled… “putting downward pressure on interest rates.”
Would have been impossible to do – too “socialist” – at any other time. Superb timing by Rudd and Swan. Turnbull trying to “me too” it just looks churlish. He is not the Treasurer, and had no business irresponsibly brainstorming out loud on the 7.30 Report.
Gusface @ 266,
It’s OK as long as you don’t have an accident in straddling the fence.
Look what happened to Nelson!
Shaun Carney did a bit of re-writing of history with this blatantly false statement.
Any reasonably aware person over the age of 40 knows that it was Bob Hawke’s well documented and well known reputation as a “skilled advocate & negotiator” during his lengthy term as ACTU President that paved the way for his rapid elevation to the Prime Ministership.
Hawke had been touted for years as a future Prime Minister and a large percentage of the population had looked forward to it and supported it.
Bob Hawkes’ approval ratings and PPM ratings were unprecedented for the time.
It seems that Swanee’s investment in mortgage securities was discussed at the 20-20 Summit.
So will all those who condemned the summit as a “talk fest” and waste of money admit they were wrong?
It is very clear. Scattered throughout his article is first class evidence that there is very little evidence.
The only trouble with this line of thinking is that it doesn’t work. If that 2% of the electorate “had” been convinced then we would be still reading about PM Howard.
There’s a big difference between spreading rumour & innuendo across the media and putting forward genuine, balanced information about a candidates early days. In reality, the majority of us couldn’t give a stuff.
As regards leadership contenders, people generally have already made up their minds about their suitability and are more focussed on the ability of the candidate to do the job.
This was clearly demonstrated with regard Rudd, Nelson and now, Turnbull. I can’t foresee any great movements in Turnbull’s approval and PPM ratings unless there is a dramatic blunder by Rudd. That is highly unlikely as he is too cautious and too able to let that happen.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/death-of-debate-20080926-4osm.html?page=-1
for goodness sake Cats, come on!
With all the talk about media commentators earlier, one person in particular slipped quietly under the radar. Christopher Pearson. Loved the title of his article.
“Conservatives under siege”.
He starts off in an unsubstantiated attack on the new GG, moves on to a glowing appraisal of the qualities of the remnants of Howard’s front bench;
After earlier mentioning this;
And proceeds to give advice to Turnbull on his selection of more suitable front bench candidates.
Then has a totally unsubstantiated shot at Rudd & his Government;
Loved that, and then praises Turnbull for his forward thinking & wisdom in appointing three known & proud climate change sceptics to positions where they can damage the Rudd policy intentions in this regard and match up with Wong, Hunt & not mentioned but inferred, Garrett.
And the last paragraph on this is even better. Pearson is either a traitor, a goose, or worse still, both.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24406825-7583,00.html
Meeow!
I’m actually a Demon, but my sisters are Cats so I am barracking for them today.
There is no doubt at all of course, and it is becoming more blatant – the murdoch media are simply working for the Liberal party with the brief of getting them elected no matter what. Dishonesty is their ony tool since they have no facts which could achieve their goal.
I suspect they put the occassional Labor friendly piece in to act as a release valve to ensure their corruption of journalism doesn’t blow up in their faces and cause miffed persons to start making loud public and direct ‘person on person’ demands to explain themselves.
“I’m actually a Demon”
most of us knew that already
Pearson was a former Rat Man speech writer and Downer got into hot water in Senate Estimates for payments that seemed excessive, paid to Pearson for writing his speeches.
Seems as if all is not well in conservativeville.
And I never heard Minchin was much chop as Finance Minister? Rather the contrary. so, that bit was a good move by Talcum. But Coonan as shadow FA???
I am not sure that Lenore Taylor had any idea what she wanted to achieve with this article, but what “IS’ evident is that she is determined to take some of the gloss of the Rudd Government. It certainly contradicts aspects of Pearson’s article but has the same intent.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24408102-7583,00.html
Yeah, I watched her effort on Lateline up against Tanner, earlier this afternoon.
If the usual LL Lib reps didn’t have their intensive coaching on the current “talking sheet points” and the ability to try and talk over their opponents to minimise any damaging points being made against them, then they would be more hopeless than they usually are.
Ah, Steve Fielding in a spot of bother.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24408040-5001021,00.html
Coonan is one of the more incompetent on the Lib front bench. She has no idea on anything except feigning indignation and trying to score political points (which she usually fails at dismally). How she manages to stay on the front bench speaks volumes for the lack of talent they have.
Wow… what the hell was he thinking? I wonder if that will make him more or less easy to deal with in the senate?
“and the ability to try and talk over their opponents”=Chris Pyne, the horrid little man
As was blindingly obvious throughout the week, even Labor with Rudd away mangled Turnbull’s new lineup. Peason must be weeping tears of blood.
In the same 7 days, Sub-Prime became a cast iron explanation for any economic woes that befall the country (or is Turnbull still going to pursue the “talking up inflation” line?…No, I didn’t think so…).
Swan will make good with Labor’s promise to “put downward pressure on interest rates” with a concrete act of deliberate (and deliberated) policy: his $4 billion slug to the non-bank lenders. And Turnbull’s crowing that it’s bi-partisan! How neat is that when the Big End Of town comes squealing to the Libs?
The Budget will have to be passed by Fielding and Xenophon (perhaps with a couple of face-saving concessions tipped to them, if Labor are in a good mood), or else they’ll be pilloried for sabotaging the Surplus, now so vitally needed to pump-prime home mortgages and thereby get the Big Banks off the Battlers’ backs.
Inflation pressures will ease as nervous businesses all over the world try not to rock the already shaky economic boat by gouging their customers.
All in all, what old Harry Wilson said turns out to be true…
A week really *is* a long time in politics.
The Liberal party are bereft of any obvious talent. They have Bishop who is not so much a talent but a draw card.
Turnbull said to be talented by some but somehow managed to be beaten by Swan when shadow Treasurer. This same man undermining or attacking the head of Treasury (Liberal appointed) and the head of the RBA when he didn’t get his own way or they wouldn’t tell the same story as him. And when he was a minister he did not perform that well and sometimes his interviews tv and radio were painful. In fact the only reason that Turnbull became the next most acceptable leader in the public’s eye is that he seemed more moderate/left wing. The very thing the party will not let him be in the role of Leader.
Mr Hockey has had a personality transplant and has become a angry bitter man seemingly with nothing to say.
And so on.
The gene pool is emabarassingly short of known talent and there is no possible way they could win an election based on talent. Hence the media’s increasing desperation and willinging to become more blatant in their attacks on Rudd.
The one term government meme started when Rudd Labor’s poll figures were still stellar. It was in fact the announcement of a media program.
Good point Tom.
Whether Swan stole the cash-injection idea from Turnbull or not, he sure stole a march on him. Not only does the plodding Wayne get to save the Battlers, reduce interest rates and look like a hero, but Turnbull agrees with him all the way… spent quite a bit of time on QANDA insisting that he did. Who are the Big-4 banks going to whinge to now? Maybe bi-partisanship will be sent to the sin bin for a while.
Now, if only the Warriors get up against Manly, my week is complete.
Given that this decision was only made possible after the Government passed specific legislation to allow it to do so a few months ago, Turnbull is full of it
Isn’t Melbourne supposed to be winning the thug-ball GF? Or did they get out-thugged?
Wow, reminds me of Alexander Downer! She’ll be in shadow foreign affairs for the next decade.
The Govt. being good economic stewards and listening to ideas of others decided it would be prudent to have legislation in place, just in case it was ever needed.
They then decided to consult with the mortgage security sector and these consultations were leaked to Talcum. So what does Talcum do with this information? Recklessly plays politcis.
He knows Swan will not make an announcement ’till the markets close for the weekend. So he plays silly buggers in QT. Then claims it as his own idea.
And people think this guy will make PM.
Congrats to Hawthorn!
ruawake… didn’t Turnbull suggest the idea last weekend though? Wasn’t that when Swan claim it was an irresponsible idea?
Talk about churlish! Bishop is still claiming ownership of the bailout idea. Who does she think she’s fooling? In her rush to take credit for pennies from heaven, she doesn’t realise their strategy of blocking the Budget just went up in smoke. The Surplus is king now. Anyone who threatens it will be crucified.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/27/2376016.htm
Itep, you don’t organise a bailout like that overnight. Turnbull was vague. He said his piece when the only bailout that was happening was the buying up of bankrupt securities and investment firms. Swan was right to criticise him for what he said, when he said it.
Swan’s idea was to pre-empt the possibility of bankruptcy, reduce interest rates and keep things on an even keel, not buy up worthless junk bonds.
Well I know next to nothing about finance or markets etc. so I can’t really comment. Sort of makes it hard to follow these political arguments when you’re economically illiterate!
In a nutshell, last Sunday Turnbull said the government should bail out existing mortgages, just like the US is going to do. What the government has announced is $4b for NEW mortgages, not like the US. According to Swan the decision was also made on the previous Friday, BEFORE Turnbull’s announcement.
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