Gallup’s three-day tracking poll shows the situation in the US presidential race throughout September as follows:
Barack Obama held a slight lead as the month began, which seems to be the long-term status quo. Then came the Republican convention and Sarah Palin bounce, which briefly put McCain well ahead. This moderated into a slight lead when the dust settled, before being wiped out with the onset of the banking crisis. However, Obama’s six-point lead at the start of this week has narrowed, despite polls giving him a clear lead on economic issues – surely a great boon in the current environment. Much is being said of an ABC-Washington Post poll which has Obama nine points in front, but this appears to be out on a limb. In any case, Gallup’s historical analysis reminds us that a lot can happen in the next six weeks, one way or the other.
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LOL! Who’s the elitist now!
I didn’t falsify what you wrote, anyone can read everything you wrote in post 760.
You still haven’t explained how Palin’s net favourability could drop 25 points, yet she still retain the same support in your mystically important demographic. More likely she lost support by varying degrees, but across the board.
People who still see her in an extremely positive light are probably Republicans who would never consider voting for Obama/Biden anyway.
And after the first debate G W Bush was ahead by 3 – 6%, but won by 0.01%. Oh crap, Bush is a Republican.
Precisely
On 10 September 2000, Gore led Bush 47/44. Who won that election?
What REALLY needs explanation is why Obama isn’t 20% ahead, given the objective situation.
Maybe the Republican narrowing started early this year!
I agree showson the Democrats really should have one this election perhaps it comes down to candidate selection. I’ve always believed that Hillary Clinton would have made an outstanding President with no concerns as how she would handle the Commander in Chief role.
I’m sure if he wins it will be the last thing on his or his supporters minds
I agree. I wanted Clinton to wind during the primaries too. But the idea that Obama is completely unsuitable, and that John McCain is some how saviour of the U.S. and the world is absurd.
He had to compromise most of his principles just to get the nomination, and he couldn’t even pick his preferred V.P. candidate (Tom Ridge, or Joe Lieberman) because the right wing of his party wouldn’t let him select a pro-choice candidate! So instead he has a V.P. candidate who is completely unsuitable for V.P., let alone President, which makes me think he has completely lost critical judgment over the last few years.
The right wing Republican establishment has been running the U.S. for the last 8 years, and look where it is?
The Intrade election pendulum has a whole lot of states that the usual US punditariat are describing as ‘too close to call’ as being called along time ago.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/09/29/the-obama-surge/
Bottom chart.
For anything on that chart with a probability of Minnesota or higher to go to the Republicans would be the first time in the literally hundreds of election contests Intrade has run markets on, that such high probabilities of victory this far out from the election were wrong.
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Adam, come off it:
Why isnt he 50% ahead, or 90% ahead!
This could still end in a landslide anyway. I mean “the polls do not always tell the whole story” remember.
When speaking about popular vote margins – this chart is probably worth keeping in mind:
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=3012
Ahh, now I get it. Adam things Obama needs to win by 500 E.C. votes to have a mandate.
Well, I think he is going to get about 309 E.C. votes, which will be 39 more than enough.
I think this whole “why isn’t Obama leading by more” stuff is just a weak attempt to denegrate him when everything else has failed. A win is a win is a win.
And the Dems will control the house. Quite a mandate indeed.
Adam: when was the last time someone won a U.S Presidential election by 20%?
Answer: never!
It’s time to take off the Hillary rose coloured glasses! She didn’t win the nomination, simple as that! Get over it, and stop whining!
Dario: I’d call anything over 300 electoral college votes a landslide!
Now, let’s see. Byb Dylan wrote about it a while back. It goes like this:
How many years can a mountain exist
Before its washed to the sea?
Yes, n how many years can some people exist
Before theyre allowed to be free?
Yes, n how many times can a man turn his head,
Pretending he just doesnt see?
The answer, my friend, because he is black,
The answer is because he is black.
Evan – three times.
Roosevelt in ‘36
Johnson in’64
Nixon in ‘72
Correct answer:
Nixon won in 1972 by 60.7 to 37.5 (23.2%)
Johnson won in 1964 by 61.0% to 38.5 (22.5%)
Roosevelt won in 1936 by 60.8 to 36.4 (24.4%)
Hillary would have won by 25%!!!!
This election OUGHT to be playing out like 1932, 1952, 1968 or 1980: an unpopular incumbent and a devastated economy and/or an unpopular war (although this one is not as unpopular as it was before the surge). Obama ought to be winning it in a canter. But he’s not. This is not whining, it’s stating facts. Obama is ahead, but not by much, and frontrunners have lost from Obama’s position before – ask Al Gore.
Finn, I have acknowleged that the Bradley effect (ie, racism) plays some part in Obama’s strange weakness as a candidate. But I think it is a minor part. I think his liberalism, his lack of credentials, his Harvard professorial tone, and the resentment of Clintonista women, are all working against him.
How about FIFTY!!!!
It’s not far from 1980 (Reagan had a 9.7% margin) since he’s on 8 in Gallup and growing.
The question for Obama is how far it will grow since it’s pretty much a done deal that McCain wont win.
Such presumption, Possum. Remember North Sydney and Wannon? I do.
Re 787,
Adam and ShowsOn, I lived in Michigan for 43 years. McCain is not going to win Michigan, it won’t happen. It will be a cold day in H*** before McCain carries the Great Lakes state. Cheers
Re 793, I don’t know if a Presidential candidate has ever lost his home state. Would be an interesting search to see if it has happened. I doubt it though as if it had, you would think I would have been taught that information in school and not one teacher ever brought up that instance. Even in 1972, I believe McGovern carried his home state but think that was pretty near the only one he carried.
In Intrade I trust
Gore lost TN, McGovern lost SD, Stevenson lost IL twice, Dewey lost NY.
Adam @ 797, you must be blind Freddie to not see the fat lady warming up her vocal cords, most of the rest of us can see it
…….
you will note I said “warming up her vocal cords” not that he WILL win, just that virtually everyone else is giving him more of a chance given the current circumstantial evidence than you are and the diehard conservatives. interesting to find you in their camp on this one …. hmmmm …….
Now, now Dario, dont be greedy. We have seen what greed did to Wall St.
Landon lost KS, Hoover lost CA.
Adam @ 803,
The historical facts will show that Al Gore won the election. The Supreme Court put George Bush into the White House, NOT the people.
Cox lost OH, Davis lost WV, Taft lost OH
ShowsOn @ 811,
You said 309, I’ve entered that contest I put the link up for earlier today and I said 338
…. glad to see that we are both in the ballpark 
…..
Finnigans @ 816, you have it on the head. And referring back to Michigan, the reason he (Obama) will win Michigan is simply because for those people who can’t bring themselves to vote for a black man? There are LESS of them in Michigan than there are black people themselves
…. Get the black vote to the polls in Flint, Saginaw, Pontiac and Detroit and Obama can smile all the way to the White House 
I’m afraid that’s mythology, Julie. Gore won a plurality of the popular vote, but he didn’t win a majority in the EC, because Nader took the crucial votes from him in FL and NH. Possibly he would have won FL if the Palm Beach Co butterfly ballot (an error by a Democrat county official) hadn’t happened. But subsequent counts of the FL vote (by the Miami Herald if I recall) showed that if the Supreme Court had not intervened, he still would not have won the FL count.
Juliem, are you related to the Czarina? (one of the Amigos old sparing partner). just asking.
No Finnigans, probably not, no idea at all who she is? I just try to stay clean and keep my nose out of trouble (vis a vis William) because I got on his bad side on one thread about a month out from the Federal Election and I don’t want to go there again
…. but I can’t resist getting my two cents worth in when people who haven’t lived in the United States before talk as if they have and they simply don’t understand it. They need to be set straight BUT once the facts are out there, if they chose to not accept them, that is their choice.
I’m with Possum up in the left wing corner sitting in the tree out on the White House lawn
“but I can’t resist getting my two cents worth in when people who haven’t lived in the United States before talk as if they have and they simply don’t understand it.”
That’s almost Shanahanian.
Julim – I’m more than happy to sit up in the libertarian left end of the branch with you, but just dont talk economics with me or I might have to push you off
Florida just went Democrat on Intrade.
Holy Moley
Possum, I don’t know economics at all (got a C- in it in my only course with it at university). I’m even worse with maths
…… No worries there at all …..
Juliem, it’s good to know that you are not the Czarina. and dont try one hand blogging at 4am.
yes, the song says you have to go to saginaw to look for America:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCbOEZ8c8dM
Just be aware of “the left wing corner” because that is where my possum comes out everynite to sit and waiting to be fed.
I have checked the matters refered to in #836.
If the butterfly ballot error had not been made, Gore would definitely have carried FL – it probably cost him 6,000 votes. So we can thank Ralph Nader and a Democrat county official in Palm Beach for the Bush presidency.
If the recount Gore had requested had been completed, rather than been cut short by the Supreme Court, he would NOT have won. The post-mortem recount, funded by the Miami Herald and the New York Times and carried out by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, showed that Bush would still have won if the count had been completed, PROVIDED that the same criteria for what was and was not a valid vote had been followed. The only way Gore could have won the recount was if there was a liberalisation of the validity criteria, to allow “over-votes” (where people voted for a candidate, then also wrote in the candidate’s name in the “write in” box). But Gore did not request this, nor did he request a full statewide recount. So although the Supreme Court decision in Bush v Gore was undoubtedly partisan, it was not what decided the election.
There is also the frequently made point that in 2000 a federal law precluded most ex-convicts from voting. In Florida, the majority of ex-convicts are black, and most of them would have voted for Gore had they been able to vote. Gore voted for the law that precluded these people from voting. So he can partly blame himself. (And of course he would not have needed FL if he had carried TN, his home state.)
Bye for now
Adam and Possum:thanks for the correction!
Nevada was 50/50 yesterday, it’s now 53/47 for Obama.
The Supreme Court should’ve ordered a state wide recount of every ballot in Florida.
If they did that then Gore probably would’ve won.
Nevada is now in Obama’s column?
The landslide is on!
Obama currently has narrow poll leads in Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia. If he wins all three, McCain needs two out of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan; or one plus Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Currently Ohio is the only one that is genuinely line ball, Obama has narrow leads in all the others, which is why I think McCain is currently trailing by a lot.
Is Obama under performing? There is a race effect operating but it is not the Bradley effect. The main driver is McCain he has a compelling personal story which makes him attractive to voters, although voters also like Obama as well. At the gut level Americans think of themselves as being moderately conservative and they feel closest ideologically to McCain, Obama and Clinton are both seen by voters as well to their left. But on policy voters are moderately liberal and tending increasingly liberal (abortion is the exception here where opinion has changed little), as the election comes closer voters focus more on policy subject to the fact that a presidential candidate has to pass the compotence/likeability test which Obama has done. I suspect Clinton would have been a slightly stronger candidate but who knows? If race is a liability it has to be challenged eventually, if not now 40 years + after civil rights then when? Sometimes in politics you have to take a risk, otherwise you end up like the NSW Labor party. As for Palin she’ll out perform expectations in her debate and survive.
About 15% of the US is African-American. That will create a Reverse-Bradley effect which should partly cancel out any Bradley effect. The way the EV falls this time, Obama is more likely to beat Macca despite losing the popular vote than vice versa.
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