Gallup’s three-day tracking poll shows the situation in the US presidential race throughout September as follows:
Barack Obama held a slight lead as the month began, which seems to be the long-term status quo. Then came the Republican convention and Sarah Palin bounce, which briefly put McCain well ahead. This moderated into a slight lead when the dust settled, before being wiped out with the onset of the banking crisis. However, Obama’s six-point lead at the start of this week has narrowed, despite polls giving him a clear lead on economic issues – surely a great boon in the current environment. Much is being said of an ABC-Washington Post poll which has Obama nine points in front, but this appears to be out on a limb. In any case, Gallup’s historical analysis reminds us that a lot can happen in the next six weeks, one way or the other.
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Another take on the VP debate. More reason for Biden to shut up and ignore Palin. Is anyone buying the “sexist” BS?
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117992965.html?categoryid=14&cs=1
Oh, so it’s sexist BS Diogenes?
How’s this for MSM treatment of Palin.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24415592-663,00.html
How about some retrospectives of Obama or Biden in a kini. Vomitous.
GG
I sit corrected. How low can a paper go? Even Daily Kos, Huff and Matty Drudge haven’t gone there. That really is fcuking awful.
GG et. al,
Get a look at this ….. [ "Conservatives try to sabotage McCain's loss by asking Sarah to drop out"
http://www.236.com/news/2008/09/26/sarah_do_not_listen_to_those_b_9168.php ] and this …….
Guess the heat is getting a little hot in the kitchen
…. these are conservatives asking her to walk away ….. 
JulieM,
So what?
I am sure neither McCain or Palin are phased. Just more grist for the mill from the never ending pro Obama media coverage.
Well, it is a British news paper, so I’d say pretty low.
It looks like Thursday debate between Biden Vs Palin is shaping out to be critical. If Palin crashes, so will McCain’s presidency. If she holds out, McCain will still in there with a fighting chance.
GG
The favourable coverage Obama is getting could actually be because he’s the better candidate. If the media are 2/3 for Obama and 1/3 for McCain, that would just be a fair and balanced representation of what the American public are thinking.
Finns,
If she continues breathing after the event, it will be regarded as a win!
Perhaps this is her best debating strategy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNcDYBPNw9o
Diogenes,
It is not the media’s role to decide who is the best candidate. There isn’t a lot of balanced coverage in the MSM. And the Blogastoria is pro Obama. As Adam has said previously, it is difficult to fathom how much of this unrelenting pro Obama reporting bias is getting through to middle aged voters who will dieide the election in swing States like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
I think she needs to really surprise everyone and beat Biden to save McCain. His numbers are looking terminal.
That’s what polls are for, and they don’t look good for McCain
Diog, the best team did not win on saturday.
So let me be my own parrot. the best candidate is not even on the ticket. The two duds are on the ticket.
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
Or fazed, even.
Dario,
The latest polls show the expected result as a statistical tie since a result either way is within the margin of error.
It has been pointed out that Democrat candidates at previous elections have been in better positions than Obama in recent elections and gone on to lose.
You can have your personal views, however, the raw stats say this result is far too close to call atm. But, I’m sure that won’t stop you.
Why not? It isn’t like “The Media” actually votes on election day.
I don’t buy this Marxist idea that The Media has a complete grip on everyone’s minds. People are free to accept or reject whatever The Media says.
Why would the coverage be balanced in a year the a Republican administration has stood by while the economy has turned to rubbish? The reason The Media is picking holes in McCain’s campaign is because it seems to be a re-run of Bush’s campaign in 2004.
GG
The media aren’t there as mouthpieces for the campaigns either. They have to choose how to present the candidates positions. And there are op-eds which are allowed to choose between the candidates. It’s when the boundary between “factual” reporting and op-ed gets blurred that the problems occur. Shanahan is the worst offender I have ever seen. Bolt, Akerman, Adams, etc are providing an opinion so they have more license. Shama is just a big fat disgrace.
Adam,
One can always rely on your pedantry and eye for detail.
Cheers.
This was true a week and a half ago.
Sure, but since last Monday Obama has been on a huge surge. McCain needs to stop that ASAP.
#864 – are you the pig with lipstick?
Diogenes and Shows On,
My point is that the views espoused in the MSM do not necessarily reflect the views of the people they are talking to. The NSW election last year is a classsic example. THe Terror ran an unrelentingly anti Labor campaign. Yet they were returned comfortably.
The question is always waht do Mr and Mrs average think.
My beef with the MSM is that the reporting is shallow and one sided and totally negative towards McCain and the Republicans. Yet, the very same polls you guys refer to say the result is too close to call.
Go figure!
As ShowsOn said, Obama is now leading well above MOE. You are incorrect.
Not any more they dont
GG
That is not even close to being true. Six of the last seven national polls have Obama ahead by 5% or more. The largest MOE was 3.2% for those polls. So for EACH of those polls there is a less than 5% chance that McCain is ahead. There is about a 1:100,000 chance that McCain is ahead based on those polls (0.05 to the sixth power).
GG
I agree about the media. They are increasingly impotent and irrelevant. They are shallow and simplistic because the only function they serve is to see papers or get ratings.
You guys should look at William’s chart above. It’s all in the fluctuations.
Maybe, just maybe, it’s because the Republicans are running a terrible campaign. They have no over arching message, they are hiding the bottom half of their ticket, and the top of the ticket last 2 weeks ago said the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound.
If the Republicans were running a better campaign it would receive more positive reporting. Instead, McCain seems to think that doing a re-run of Bush’s 2005 campaign will work for 2008.
I don’t know what poll you are referring to, but the Real Clear Politics average gives Obama a lead of 4.8, with McCain’s figure taking a huge dive.:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
If the media is so irrelevant, I can’t see how it would be important if they were biased. So I don’t see how it matches with what GG is saying. For the record, the idea that the media kind of brainwashes us all day is a psychoanalytic version of Marxism which I don’t think makes any sense.
The chart is out of date, have a look at the one in the link above.
GG, it’s wired in behavior I’m afraid.
The current RCP average (of polls) has Obama 47.9, McCain 43.1. I don’t know if that’s within the MoE or not, but I accept that Obama is ahead. But in a two-horse race 47.9 is not exactly a ringing vote of confidence.
But that’s not actually the important figure. It’s the ECV that counts, as Al Gore will tell you. Turning to electoral-vote.com, we find Obama with 286 ECVs, a lead of 17. He has 1% leads in VA (13 ECVs) and NH (4 ECVs), so if he loses both of those he will lose. That’s what his real lead is right now – 1% in two states.
Adam
If Obama loses VA and NH he will still win. A 269-269 draw is enough because the Dems will hold Congress. Macca needs CO or MN as well where Obama is about 4% ahead. PA and MI are looking pretty grim for McCain at the moment.
It also shows McCain ahead by just 1% in Florida, which he must win. So by your logic McCain is 2% away from electoral oblivion.
Also it gives Nevada to McCain, even though all the recent polls have Obama ahead. So he can lose New Hampshire and still win.
Good point!
Shows On,
I think McCain and Republicans are running the type of campaign that wins them elections. They are by passing the stream of invective that is the MSM and appealing to the moms and dads directly.
Diogenes, yes you are right. McCain needs to hold CO as well. If he makes no gains he can only afford to lose IA and NM. However, it doesn’t alter my point. The race is still very close even though McCain has slipped a bit since the Wall St crash began.
You mean by telling them that the economy is “fundamentally sound”, then six days later saying it is about to “crater”?
Sounds like mixed messages to me. I think “moms and dads” want politicians with a bit more conviction than that.
The more I think about it, the more I feel this would be the sweetest way to get back for the 2000 debacle.
I agree with you, assuming that “a bit” means 5%. Which is in theory about 7 million votes.
Diogenes @ 880,
I did some reading last night and one article noted that if the 269-269 scenario eventuates, that it is the NEW Congress (as its first official duty) that will make that call. Not that I expect the Democrats to lose Congress in the current climate
but just for the record ……..
Depends on your definition of ‘very close’
“Very close” = in a position from which either candidate can win without a major shift in votes.
If the House has to choose the new President, it will not simply be a matter of who has a majority in the House. Each state will cast a single vote, so who holds AK’s one seat will be as important as who holds the majority of CA’s 53 seats. I don’t know what happens to states where the delegations are tied – maybe they abstain. Now, I presume that if the Dems have a majority in the House, they will also have a majority of state delegations, but it doesn’t necessarily follow. There will be a lot of pressure on the Dem Reps from, for example, ND and SD, which McCain will certainly carry, to “go with their state” and vote for McCain.
So Obama could win the popular vote by 5%, but lose the electoral college vote?
EV has a good summary here.
The best McCain can hope for is 26-24 to the Dems. There are two Dems in the House from very Red states (20% plus) who he would need to switch to him. I think they’d be shot if they voted the Repugs in again.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep11.html
If that’s your definition, right now it isn’t very close
Adam
If the House goes 25 all it goes to the Senate where the Dems will definitely win. And then Biden becomes acting president.
The Democrats currently have majorities in 27 state delegations (28 if you count DC), and whilst they could go backwards at this election it’s more likely that they’ll go forwards.
The Senate chooses the VP regardless. The House keeps balloting until one candidate reaches 26.
They are American politicians! They will vote however way they want. They won’t vote as state delegations. Even in the last election campaign one E.C. delegate pledged to Kerry voted for John Edwards for President!
I see no way the Republicans could possibly make up a 30 – 40 seat difference.
I’ve never heard that the election of the President moved to the Senate if the House is deadlocked. I think they ballot ad etaernum.
I’m wondering if anyone can tell me the last time the Bradley effect was actually statistically significant in a state-wide election in the US?
My mind goes back to when Gov. Wilder won the governorship of Virginia (as a Democrat) in the late 1980s – the Bradley effect there was that his expected comfortable victories ended up being fairly close.
Have there been any more recent instances (and consequently, does it still exist?)
Especially the way they are polling in those races
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