Gallup’s three-day tracking poll shows the situation in the US presidential race throughout September as follows:
Barack Obama held a slight lead as the month began, which seems to be the long-term status quo. Then came the Republican convention and Sarah Palin bounce, which briefly put McCain well ahead. This moderated into a slight lead when the dust settled, before being wiped out with the onset of the banking crisis. However, Obama’s six-point lead at the start of this week has narrowed, despite polls giving him a clear lead on economic issues – surely a great boon in the current environment. Much is being said of an ABC-Washington Post poll which has Obama nine points in front, but this appears to be out on a limb. In any case, Gallup’s historical analysis reminds us that a lot can happen in the next six weeks, one way or the other.
1,141 Comments
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Dario (100)
Ditto
Oh yes, if Obama loses that will be the Dems’ excuse – it was all racism. Bollocks. Most Americans would be happy to elect a black president. If Colin Powell had run in 2000 he would have won in a canter.
Adam (102)
Two big statements in that lot. Any evidence to support them?
It doesn’t matter whether ‘most’ would, as long as there are large enough sections of the community that won’t it will be a factor against him. I’m not saying he won’t win, but it will make it harder. To argue the opposite is naive in the extreme.
Um, Dario, “most” is by defintion more than 50%. So yes it does matter.
Are the values at intrade of any predictive value?
I don’t know what intrade is.
Possum runs some stuff on it as well.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933
I am in the Yahoo USA poltics chat rooms – boy is it hot.
Um no, for starters its not compulsary voting in the US, and just because more than 50% of those that vote may not have a problem with it, that doesnt mean they will vote for him
http://www.mahalo.com/Obama_Race_Factor_Poll
Dario,
Where did this recent information come from?
Dario “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. He’s black.”
Darn “Ditto”
Then yous & other Obama supporters were illjudged in supporting Obama in first place & giving th Republicans a chance to win
Where is th evidence to support this statement , Tell me which States being black huts Obama ???
(because Obama beeing black is HELPING him in Republican VA & NC wher there ar big black populations ! , I’m saying its not th colour of his skin thats th problem , but th colour of his politics)
TP, you’ll have to explain what all those numbers mean, but not now because it’s too late in the evening.
As I have said before Ron, I was originally behind Hillary
How are the sour grapes?
Read the link
Dario
Posted Friday, September 26, 2008 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
Where is th evidence to support this statement , Tell me which States being black huts Obama ???
Read the link
Well if you’d not been lazy in just reading headlines but read th main poll its talking of ELECTION day not now !
Your sour grapes is you can not explain why Obama is not leading by a landslide now , whereas I hav , he’s not supported by working familys traditional labor supporters
I am really puzzled about this $800B rescue plan from the USSR (United States Socialist Republic) because nobody asks the most obvious questions:
1. Where’s and how the money coming from?
2. How many cents in the $ of the “toxic asset” they are paying?
I’m glad to see that the Hillary fans here have acted so predictably. When Obama won, I commented that we would get endless comments that “Oh, you are so silly. If you only had chosen Hillary, we would have won easily. Why oh why don’t you liberals ever listen to the voice of reason?” Repeated ad nauseum like a mantra.
George W Bush beat that windbag, powder-puff, lazy slob Gore, who was a centrist. Kerry was also a pathetic, born to rule centrist and he lost to The Imbecile as well. Obama is up against a much more electable McCain. Gore or Kerry would have been slaughtered by McCain.
It’s time a few Billary supporters got over themselves.
Finns,
Something must be done.
This is somehing.
Therefore, it must be done!
spoken like a typical precous elitist intellegentsia , whose phoney candidate SHOULD be winning by a landslide and isn’t because he’s not left policys so working familys don’t support him
And the difference is?
I just did. You haven’t explained anything, as usual. Back to your fantasyland Ron.
Amigo FINNS
US markets in financial ruins , democrats hav majority…why are they not passing there own legislation…could it be Obama’s presidential interests ar greater than US economys ?
I know that Sarah Palin just loves me.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/hunters-dont-kill-finns/2008/09/25/1222217427624.html
You seem to be excluding the thousands of African-American working families who supported Obama during the primaries, and who are keeping him ahead of McCain on the national vote.
You don’t need to win in a landslide, all you need is 270 electoral college votes.
I’d also point out that the Republican base is comprised of the wall street executives who are almost completely responsible for the current melt down in the U.S., and thus the world, economies. What exactly does McCain know about economics? He even said during the Republican primary that it isn’t his strength.
Because if the Democrats pass legislation that Bush disagrees with he will veto it.
The U.S. political system is a lot different to ours.
ShowsOn
you wrote a long post but avoided th question WHY Obama is not leading by a landslide given Bush & Republicans ar on th nose and Wall Street collapse
ShowsOn
another post this time on economic avoiding th question
Ron
“US markets in financial ruins , democrats hav majority…why are they not passing there own legislation…could it be Obama’s presidential interests ar greater than US economys ?”
ShowsOn
“Because if the Democrats pass legislation that Bush disagrees with he will veto it. The U.S. political system is a lot different to ours.”
Ron
so what , then bush & Republicans can be blamed , read th proposed Bill
‘The proposed bill, largely crafted by Democrats with only modest Republican input, would also likely have included caps on the pay of executives of firms that take federal assistance, mortgage relief for families facing foreclosure, equity stakes for taxpayers and an oversight board to hold the Treasury secretary accountable, reports BS News correspondent Bob Orr. ‘
Can someone prove that Hillary would be further ahead than Obama? No. It is a matter of faith, like a religion. Just keep repeating your mantra and it will become true for you. It proves NOTHING.
Your faith is very strong. Your faith was also very strong when you ignored all possible evidence that Hillary was going to LOSE to Obama, which she did. WE WERE RIGHT.
As a great man said;
I think Nietzsche might have been a prophet.
Oh so sorry, I didn’t realise that it is my job to write things that you agree with! But here are some of my speculation, perhaps the polls are close because:
Because Obama is relatively young.
Because Obama is an African-American, and there has never been a non-white President.
Because some people think they should stick with Republicans because of national security issues.
Some people want Sarah Palin to be Vice President
Some people think John McCain still believes everything he believed in in the year 2000.
However, just because the polls are close now doesn’t mean the election will end that way on November 4th. A stuff up or two by either side (like McCain saying he would suspend his campaign when he hasn’t) could kill off their chance at victory.
Diog, if Obama is such a great candidate, why then he is not as amigo Ronnie has stated:
Please Explain.
Its alright diogenes , yous “elitist liberals” (your admission) live with different cultural attitudes & policy priorities to 90% of aussies so just keep telling yourselves your selection will win in a landslide
So what are you complaining about? Why don’t you just wait for this largely Democrat bill to be passed. Then see if Bush dares to veto it.
You should stick to making your own points rather than just cut and pasting things other people have written.
What are you talking about!? The current Federal Government, and every state and territory excluding W.A. currently has a Labor government, which are ideologically much closer to the Democratic Party than the Republican party. If John McCain was an Australian politician he would be in the Liberal party.
I have no idea how you come up with this “90%” figure, I figure you just made it up because you haven’t provided any evidence for it. “Elitist liberals” is simply a derogatory term invented by the Republican party to win elections. They even campaigned against Clinton as an elitist, even though he was a centrist. If you fall for that sort of rubbish you’ll fall for anything.
ShowsOn
I copied what was in th proposed Bill per CBS What you did NOT like is was th content of th Bill was drafted by DEMOCTATS and that DEMOCRATS hav th Congress majority & could pass pass it if they wished
so I said to YOUR point in #125
“Because if the Democrats pass legislation that Bush disagrees with he will veto it.
The U.S. political system is a lot different to ours.”
I replied “why do NOT th Democrats enact it ?”
You hav so far been unable to give an answer !
Wall St drops 130 pts the first 2 minutes and dropping
Try to type slower, there are so many errors in this that it is hard to understand exactly what you are saying.
You are completely ignoring the fact that they don’t have disciplined parties in the U.S. Just because a few senior democrats wrote most of the legislation doesn’t mean ALL democrats will vote for it.
I still have no idea if you think it is good or bad that the Democrats are mainly responsible for writing this legislation. Nor do I have any idea what this has to do with Obama.
Of course McCain has hardly anything to do with any of this, because he knows bugger all about economics, and admitted it earlier this year.
Finns
See 129
I would also add that McCain is as far from being a Repug as is possible so the Repug disaster taints him less than any other Repug candidate.
If anyone is wondering why McCain is still hiding Yup Yup, just watch this video of Couric interviewing her. It’s just pathetic that such a stool-pigeon could be a heartbeat from being POTUS. She’s a clown. (But at least she’s not a witch because we have seen her beong protected from witches also on youtube)
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/
If it was the year 2000 I’d agree with you, but since then he has changed most of his positions on major issues.
He was against the Bush tax cut plan in 2000, but now he is for it. He didn’t think a surge in Iraq would work in early 2003, but now he goes around saying he was his idea. He was for comprehensive immigration reform last year, but now he says he opposed it because the Republican base is opposed to it.
If John McCain version year 2000 was running in this election HE would be ahead in the polls. But the fact he has flopped around to get the nomination means he is struggling against a first term Senator.
Diog,
Exactly, exactly, exactly, so Obama should be 30pts in front!!!!!!! Not -
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/21 – 09/25 1000 LV 46 48 McCain +2
Gallup Tracking 09/22 – 09/24 2731 RV 46 46 Tie
Rasmussen Tracking 09/22 – 09/24 3000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Please explain.
“The proposed bill, largely crafted by Democrats with only modest Republican input”
Democrats hav majority in congress to pass what they want , again you’ve avoided puting responsibility with them If Republicans were in majority you would be criticising them Thats double standards Th politcand there hav failed in this crisis
(yes I support th legislation in principal)
You also failed to answer why Obama isn’t leading in a landslide , last 4 of your points would not be supported by most Democrats
you also misstated ‘elitists liberals’ , they ar here on this site as well as in US They do not share egaltarian oz cultural attitudes nor key ‘left’ policy priorites at all , and your suggestion otherwise is nonsense
The election is 6 weeks away.
I doubt everyone has made up their minds yet. The polls could be close now, but either candidate could still win comfortably (by 50+ E.C. votes) on election day.
Finns
VPs don’t make any difference to voting. We’re up by 3.5% nationally on RCP and we’re winning by EVERY measure.
I love a good rant and Bill O’Reilly goes berserk about the crash on this piece and attacks right-wing talk radio as liars, and has a few home truths for the Dems as well. Bill’s not going to be happy if there isn’t a bail-out.
http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=182023
Oh rubbish. Palin is a clown Republican, but they elected Bush twice ffs. Being a clown Republican doesn’t make you unelectable… it adds votes!
Adam 102
“Most Americans would be happy to elect a black president.”
I’m sure most Americans would be happy to elect an honest, sane, competent president who used his powers for the national interest. Yet they almost elected Dubbya in 2000, and did elect him in 2004. Go figure. Who they elect is who they elect, however much you might wish for your side to win.
Rasmussen have Obama 50/45 today – I had the feeling that this poll was usually the lower one for Obama.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Finns
I should also add that Americans are cretins and can easily be persuaded to vote their country into becoming a septic tank. Democracy sucks when you have a nation whose education system allows you to graduate if you know which end of a pencil to hold.
OH FFS! You are applying Australian standards of party discipline (where everyone in the same party 99% of the time votes the same) to the U.S. system. It just doesn’t work like that. They have no party discipline, they vote however way they want.
What!? So you are criticisng an American politician because he doesn’t have Australian cultural values? Um, doesn’t that criticism apply equally to McCain and Obama? What exactly are these Australian cultural values, and why should American politicians adopt them?
When Republicans call Democrats elitist liberals it is because they support things like equal rights for gays, ethnic and religious minorities, low paid workers, trade unionists and indigenous Americans (Native American Indians).
What of those cultural values do you oppose? Which of those values does our current Federal government oppose?
FINNS
#139
Please explain.
Amigo you ask , and you ask , and you ask….for 6 month you hav asked …but alas an answer of either phoney or flawed non key ‘left’ policys candidate shall not come from there keyboard lips
Well there you go. Maybe that will shut Ron up a bit but somehow I doubt it.
No 146
Outrageous Diogenes. You obviously know very little about Americans.
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