Gallup’s three-day tracking poll shows the situation in the US presidential race throughout September as follows:
Barack Obama held a slight lead as the month began, which seems to be the long-term status quo. Then came the Republican convention and Sarah Palin bounce, which briefly put McCain well ahead. This moderated into a slight lead when the dust settled, before being wiped out with the onset of the banking crisis. However, Obama’s six-point lead at the start of this week has narrowed, despite polls giving him a clear lead on economic issues – surely a great boon in the current environment. Much is being said of an ABC-Washington Post poll which has Obama nine points in front, but this appears to be out on a limb. In any case, Gallup’s historical analysis reminds us that a lot can happen in the next six weeks, one way or the other.
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and
“Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama as the clear favorite and currently gives the Democrat a 56.3 % chance of victory”
This from the Rasmussen release is quite telling:
Given the massive lead in voter registration that the Democrats have, that spells severe problems for McCain
Which coincidentally matches the current intrade price for Obama.
ShowOn
Its time for you to get off th fence about “elitist”
Obama talking about millions of working familys in Pennsyvania & other mid west towns
And he is talking ABOUT them BEHIND there back 3,000 kilometres away to an AFFLUENT fund raisers in far off San Francisco on 5/4/08 , and reported in ALL credible US media
“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”
No context can hide this is “elitist’ , a poor cultural attitude of other citizens for whom you claim you wish to be elected to represent ONLY an “elitist” would deny these snobby condecending words were not “elitist”
Interesting. About 12% of Republicans voted for Clinton in 1992, and about 15% in 1996.
Ron
If Obama only appeals to elitist liberal, how come more than 50% of the US is voting for him? They must have a hell of a lot of elitists over there.
GP
By almost every measure, the US has the most ignorant population of any Western country. Only 13% believe that evolution is the sole reason we are here. 55% believe in God and creationism. You just can’t buy ignorance like that in any country other than the US. No country comes close.
Dario (152) – or anyone else who knows (Juliem?):
What are the actual voter registration figures for the two parties at present?
Also, what, if any, data is available on the registartion of blacks compared to previous elections?
LOL! After you…
Yes, Obama is overwhelmingly leading in the low income voting demographics, particularly African-Americans and hispanics. So, what’s your point?
Well those African-Americans and Hispanics (who tend to be religious) don’t seem to care about what he said. The fact he didn’t use weasel words like the current president probably worked in his favour.
But WTF does this have to do with “egaltarian (sic) oz cultural attitudes” (hint: I’m quoting you)? You attack Obama as a liberal elitist, and then have a go at him for attacking people who are anti-immigrant and anti-trade.
Are you an anti-immigrant protectionist? Did he offend your anti-immigrant sensibilities?
registration
The reason he is leading is because he is starting to eat away at McCain’s lead with white middle-class voters. I guess they are the new elites.
Plus most Americans think humans and dinosaurs lived at the same time, angels are real, and that there is a literal placed called “hell”.
ShowsOn
another question (my #154) you avoid…you don’t like hard questions , it was quite simple , did you see anything wrong in Obama’s remarks I quoted in #154
Last I checked the Dems were 11 million registered voters ahead… forget the totals but will see if I can find a link
Listening in to Yahoo US politics chat rooms the main topics of heated discussion was if Palin should be home with the kids and how that reflected on her family values.
Thanks Dario
I would also be interested in what percentage of the registered voters actually vote.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/neuharth/2004-01-22-neuharth_x.htm
Why should I have to respond to your questions? It isn’t like you have tried in the slightest way to respond to any of the points I have made in my last 6 posts.
I’ll answer your question after you can explain what Obama said has anything whatsoever to do with “egaltarian (sic) oz cultural attitudes”.
To help you on your way, I think one important “egaltarian (sic) oz cultural attitude” is something called FREEDOM OF SPEECH. I think Obama was using his right to free speech. So he was expressing a cultural value that all liberal democratic countries share.
I also note that you haven’t explained how or why Obama is wrong, instead you have just attacked him as a person by calling him a “liberal elite” (a term you haven’t even defined). I consider ad hominem arguments ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem ) completely useless and unconvincing irrespective of how many times you repeat them.
LOL! Letterman complains that McCain skipped his show because he had to go to Washington. But then he found out that McCain actually stayed in New York City, and didn’t leave for Washington until the morning after he was meant to appear on Letterman’s show.
What a clown, McCain’s “campaign suspension” is a joke.
Dario
That’s a huge difference. Do you think it is likely to even up a bit before polling day?
I won’t pretend to know the minds of Americans other than those I have met, who have generally been pleasant though I suspect unrepresentative because they were better educated than average. But I don’t think education is the (main) problem with the US today. I think its their national psyche. I think they are a nation that is outwardly optimistic but inwardly live in fear. That is why they wrap themselves up in reassuring, simplistic religeons and easily fall for the childish fear campaigns that the republicans have given them in recent years. They have changed from moral leaders to self interested neurotics. If the objective of terrorists is to win a struggle through instilling enough fear in their opponents to prevent sensible act, then Bin Laden defeated them in 2001.
So I won’t presume they will vote for Obama, an imperfect but intelligent man who can change them away from the path to further stagnation. They may prefer McCain, a once decent old man who is in decline with old ideas that have already proven to fail, and incapable of understanding their economy, much less fix it. But for their sake, and ours, I hope they don’t. If they can’t see it after Iraq, Katrina, and having $800 billion of their own money thrown away to save a bunch of con men masquerading as financial managers, then nothing will save them from the slide to a secondary power.
It seems pointless to try to convince some posters here that McCain is a disaster waiting to continue. Most right wingers seem incapable of admitting they’re wrong, no matter what their side of politics does. I woudl describe myself as centreist, which puts me to the left of the majority in todays politics. I can still admit though, that some left/labour/democrat politicans or governemtns don’t deserve election – like Latham or NSW Labour. But I rarely see the same honesty reciprocated, so such discusion seem pointless.
Poss I think I’ll stay on your elitist tree and hope in November that average Americans realise that electing an idiot like themselves is not a good idea.
Democrats always lead on registrations, it is getting them out to vote which is the hard part.
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html
In 2004 there was a voter turnout of 64% of the voting age population, while approximately 72% was registered to vote. So that works out to about 89% of registered voters actually turning out to vote.
My first link with registration numbers was from 2004 so it’s probably changed a fair bit since then…
GG
What is FINNS and I to do with either rusted on believersor or elitist liberals believers , we ask , and ask , and they can not give straight answers , perhaps th questions ar too difficult
#130 WHY Obama is not leading by a landslide given Bush & Republicans ar on th nose and Wall Street collapse
#122 “US markets in financial ruins , democrats hav majority…why are they not passing there own Bailout legislation ? (then Bush & Republicans can be blamed) …could it be Obama’s presidential interests ar greater than US economys ?”
#154 Ar Obama’s words on 5/4/08 snoby condecending “elitist ?
“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”
SHOWSON , th fact you can not simply say these ar snoby condecending elitist words demonstates you ar either an “elitist” also and afraid of ” outing”or ar incapable of even saying Obama on this occasion was 100% wrong….th former is more likely
addition “liberal”
Diogenes (156)
I have a university education, am not in any way religious and I think the theory of evolution (that’s what it is – a theory) has enormous problems. So I don’t share your view that the American people are necessarily ignorant because large numbers of them don’t accept it as a proven fact.
I do find it amazing however that in this day and age more than 50% of them believe that God is a proven fact.
Correction… I think those census.gov figures above are wrong.
Here is a better link which had voter registration at 65.9% of the VAP in 2004, and an actual turnout of 58.3% of the VAP. So that’s still around 88% of registered voters turning out to vote.
http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/voting/cps2004/tab01.xls
So your argument is that Obama is an elitist because he says things that are elitist? Well, there’s a term for this, it’s called a circular argument: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question
I don’t find circular arguments convincing, they lack a) logic b) content
I hope you realise that if something ever replaces the Theory of Evolution, it will be another scientific Theory. If your problem is with the fact it is a Theory, that means you shouldn’t believe anything in science at all, because science only produces theories. You simply aren’t using the term “theory” in its scientific sense, you seem to assume that it means that it is opposed to “practice” (i.e. how things happen in the actual world), well, that’s exactly what scientific theories seek to explain.
Science doesn’t produce “facts”, it produces theories, which are “provisional truths” (the best explanation of truth given currently available evidence). Science does not produce “absolute truths” that never change irrespective of evidence.
I find it amazing that you don’t accept evolution even though it is supported by thousands of examples of evolution from the fossil record to DNA analysis. It is supported by an overwhelming amount of evidence, which is why it is the central unifying theory of all biology.
Obama
“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”
Either you ar comfortable with Obama’s words on 5/4/08 describing millions of working familys in Pennsyvania & other mid west towns…OR you ar not …you refuse to say so , implying you reely do agree with Obama but ar uncomfortable admitting it
Biggest problem for “elitists” is outing themselves
As for Evolution , your argument is typical athiest dogma for which athiests can not alnswer all questions neither can religion (which is based on faith)
Well, why is Obama leading in most mid-western states!?
One of your biggest problems is that you attack people, instead of arguments. I think this is because you struggle to make arguments that are coherent and concise.
The Theory of Evolution has nothing to do with atheism. Ken Miller, one of the most famous evolutionary biologists still working, is a strict Catholic:
http://www.amazon.com/Only-Theory-Evolution-Battle-Americas/dp/067001883X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222441775&sr=8-1
Darn
The evidence for evolution is overwhelming. The main reason people have problems with it is that they haven’t looked at the science. There are lots of good books on evolution such as Evolution: What the Fossils Say and Why It Matters by Prothero, or The Ancestor’s Tale by Dawkins.
I think it’s because science education in high schools has been declining over the last 10 – 15 years. I teach in the humanities at university and occasionally refer to evolutionary explanations for certain psychological phenomena. Sadly most of my students find this extremely difficult to understand because they either didn’t do any science in years 11 and 12, or didn’t understand evolution when it was taught so superficially at high school.
Ron
Atheists/science can answer about 99% of questions. Religion can answer none because it’s based on faith. As I said before “A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything. “
Seems McCain has a habit of pulling this kind of stunt.
McCain resurrects an old stunt
The candidate has used his ‘country-first’ rhetoric before. But will the Great Man act turn into a self-parody?
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-welch26-2008sep26,0,5641824.story
No surprise, McCain heading for the airport now to go to the debate. Nothing but a dumb stunt.
LOL! What a clown. I hope Obama raises his attempted evasion during the debate itself.
ShowsON
A simple yes or no to my #177 post & 6 earlier posts asking same , was simply needed
We know know your avoidance is because you ar an “elitist liberal” , deal with it
I might add now that you’ve burned your bridges for an hour , is that a non elitist Labor supporter would simply say I don’t agree with Obama’s comment , its non Labor language & “elitist” but I’m still going to sort Obama in preference to a Republican
Diogenes
an admitted “liberal elitist” , do not like cultural attitudes of elitists on other citizens As to atheism , you ar also dogmatic & dismissive of people who believe in religion
My view is both science & religion hav not got all answers , so I respect people of genuine religous faith , th issues & questions complex
So rather than forming a coherent argument, now you are creating an ad hominem attack against ME as well as Obama. Stop it, you’re making me laugh.
Great. Does this mean you’ll start working on an argument now? Or are you just going to keep attacking the person, rather than their arguments?
So if we go back to Obama’s quote, that means you are endorsing prejudicial treatment of immigrants (bring back the White Australia policy?), reduced gun control, and you are opposed to free trade. OK, thank you for admitting that, but I think all those policies are nonsense.
I respect people to pursue any religion or other system belief that they want. That is anyone’s liberal democratic right.
However I am opposed to religion, faith, intelligent design, astrology, or homeopathy being taught to students in a science class room and told it is all supported by evidence, logic, and thus scientific.
Ron
That’s partly true. I am dismissive of the arguments of people who believe in religion. I am also dismissive of the arguments of people who deny the Holocaust. I happen to think they are wrong. While I think they are fundamentally wrong about an important topic, I certainly respect them as people still, after all my wife and daughter are both religious. I have high hopes for my son though. Many of the best ‘bludgers are religious. They have a lot of qualities that I admire greatly.
It’s about time McCain got his sh!t together. I used to like the guy but he’s really dropped in my elitist liberal opinion, which probably explains why he’s still going OK in the polls.
McCain will go to debate
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13970.html
I liked McCain circa 2000, but it seems he sold out all his major principles to win the nomination.
Sad really, now he is just a parody of his former self. I think the U.S. would be in better shape now if McCain won instead of Bush.
Hahahahahaha now the McCain camp has jumped the gun and accidentally run ads declaring that he won the debate, a day early! So much for a ’suspended’ campaign! MCCAIN IS A TOTAL FRAUD
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/mccain_wins_debate.html
Well he had suspended the suspendable ads, but the unsuspendable ads weren’t suspended so they didn’t face suspension.
A conservative columnist from the National Review says Palin is so bad at interviews that she should pull out. They really are cringe-inducing.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDZiMDhjYTU1NmI5Y2MwZjg2MWNiMWMyYTUxZDkwNTE=#more
McCain’s next ten campaign stunts, according to Slate.com
http://www.slate.com/id/2200927/
1. Returns to Vietnam and jails himself.
2. Offers the post of “vice vice president” to Warren Buffett.
3. Challenges Obama to suspend campaign so they both can go and personally drill for oil offshore.
4. Learns to use computer.
5. Does bombing run over Taliban-controlled tribal areas of Pakistan.
6. Offers to forgo salary, sell one house.
7. Sex-change operation.
8. Suspends campaign until Nov. 4, offers to start being president right now.
9. Sells Alaska to Russia for $700 billion.
10. Pledges to serve only one term. OK, half a term.
Obama now up by FIVE in Virginia on the latest Rasmussen! McCain is falling apart…
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
This gimmick of McCain was seen through immediately and showed a desperate man. The moment he stalled was the moment Intrade went straight up for Obama.
But worse for McCain as it appears he had a hand in ruining the bail out package and now No.3 in the run, this omniscient victory.
Not only is his VP starting to fade into shallowness he too is starting to look like a joke.
I guess it is fitting that the immoral activity of Wall street greed culminates simultaneously with the immoral election campaign of the Republicans – they both sit grinning at each other – different sides of the same coin.
Even worse for McCain, I reckon a lot of the debate will be on the economy, a topic he generally sucks at. So I guess he will pull out some jargon and buzz words, but if more time is spent on that topic, rather than say national security, then it will just make Obama look even better. Obama leads McCain on “better for the economy” by 10 – 15%.
This week just killed off any chance of Bush having any positive legacy whatsoever. I mean some people say that it may turn out to be Iraq in 10 years time, but he will be remembered as the President who did basically nothing until the financial crisis reached the point when banks just didn’t want to lend each other any money. Only THEN he comes out saying that the entire economy is at risk. What has he been doing for the past year!?
Socrates @ 144,
Catching up on overnight chatter here. Glad to see that through the white noise
that someone posted something intelligent 
….
GOOD on you, you are the only one that I can recall in days, if not weeks, that has noted this point
Darn @ 157, don’t know but will look for an answer between now and when the debate starts. After the debate, it is full on with the GF the rest of the afternoon …..
Dario, glad to see those Virginia numbers. If memory serves from the Dems convention, their governor is a Democrat and quite popular too so that might continue to give Obama some “coattails” in Virginia …..
Unique campaigning story in the US State of Michigan where I am from. Note for those who aren’t aware – in the US, petrol/fuel = gas. What we call gas, I can’t remember what they call it, I never used it while living there so I don’t remember.
****
[ Obama gas? Detroit station swaps signs, lowers prices
By KELLY KOZLOWSKI • Free Press staff writer • September 25, 2008
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Buzz up!
When it comes to campaigning for the presidency, sometimes a T-shirt and a pin just don't cut it. Sometimes you need a really big sign and a price cut on gas.
Whether or not either method guarantees a win remains to be seen, but Detroit Sunoco station owner Samir Bazzi and son, Nick, are giving both a shot.
Bazzi replaced his Sunoco sign with an Obama campaign sign five days ago and lowered gas prices to $3.49 per gallon. "Everything's down," Bazzi said. "We're trying to support people."
Bazzi is also selling Obama hats and T-shirts.
The owner of the station for the past seven years, Sammi said he has been a Democrat since he came to America from Lebanon in 1986.
“I supported Bill Clinton when I started voting and now I support Barack Obama. He is a good man who supports the poor people and looks out for those who have lost their homes and businesses.”
Bazzi said he plans to continue keeping the price of gasoline below those of his competitors and said if Obama wins the election in November he will throw a big party at the station, offering free food and drinks to his customers.
“Obama is a good man in the greatest country on earth and we need someone like him to lead us.”
"This is an Obama neighborhood," Nick Bazzi said, adding that sales have increased since the signage switch.
Many patrons voiced support as they filled up on fuel.
"It looks nice--real nice," said Eric Joye, 36, of Detroit. "That's free advertising. It just shows who he supports."
"I think it's wonderful," said Alma Raymond, 54, of Detroit. "He's going to get a lot of business, just like Obama's going to get a lot of votes. [Obama] is going to be our next president.”
Samir Bazzi echoed expectations of an Obama victory. “We support Obama they way he’s going to support us,” Bazzi said.
Phillip Young, 39, of Detroit called the gas station sign “unique.”
“It did get my attention when it first went up. With about 40 days and counting, I think everybody should come out and vote. Eight years is a long time, and it’s way past due.”
Nick Bazzi said the sign will stay up through Nov. 4. ]
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