Brisbane’s Courier-Mail today carries a Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland voters showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50.4-49.6 at the November 2007 election. Both parties are down on the primary vote – Labor from 42.9 per cent to 41 per cent and the Coalition from 44.5 per cent to 44 per cent – while the Greens are up from 5.6 per cent to 9 per cent. Also included are questions on preferred leader (Kevin Rudd 57 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull 34 per cent) and economic management.
The first Essential Research poll conducted entirely on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch should be through either this afternoon or tomorrow morning.
UPDATE: No bounce for Turnbull from Essential Research, whose two-week rolling average has moved a point in Labor’s favour to the Nelson-era level of 58-42. Also featured are leadership approval ratings and questions on preferred Treasurer (Swan 34 per cent, Bishop 19 per cent), Kevin Rudd’s overseas travel (51 per cent believe he should have gone to the US, 30 per cent say he shouldn’t) and the value of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
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No 186
Thanks for the non-lesson in social policy. The fact is that I disagree with it. Compulsory contributions toward maternity payments makes women considerably unemployable because the cost to the business is simply dead money. It will kill small business.
This outburst by Robb shows just how out of touch they are and just how desperate they are to try and regain some traction on CC.
Notice this; “The Government has delegated the Garnaut report to irrelevancy,” Mr Robb told ABC Radio. ”
And then Robb has the gall to say this;
This mob are off with the fairies. It can only get worse from here. Strap yourselves in and get set for an interesting ride. Turnbull is going to regret having these 3 amigos fronting the climate, environment portfolios.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24423770-12377,00.html
GP, I try to play an educational role here
This is frankly one area where business will have to like it or lump it. The economy exists to serve people, not vice versa. Working women have more votes than business. In any case, small business cries wolf too often. The GST was going to kill small business, unfair dismissal was going to kill small business, banning smoking in pubs was going to kill small business, etc etc.
Adam,
Don’t forget the biggest crock of all.
“A rise in the minimum wage will devastate small business and send thousands of them to the wall”.
They have been spruking this one all my working life in the Commission & through the media at every National or State Wage Case Hearing.
What I want to know is, when are we going to have paid leave for uncles?
Today’s meltdown schmozzle makes me relatively happy to be in Australia, rather than you-know-where (i.e. anywhere else).
Turnbull is being commendably bi-partisan and comforting. Good for him! He doesn’t have much choice, but it’s good to see him stumping up and not kibbitzing for a change. The World has gone insane today, “The Market” is making a fool of itself, and there’s no point sniping until it comes to its senses.
Perhaps it’s for the best that the bailout legislation has been delayed for a few days. It might actually get some of those overpaid financial “geniuses” onto their knees, begging for forgiveness and a reprieve (any reprieve, maybe even one that doesn’t leave them walkout multi-millionaires from what they’ve done to us all).
It looks like Three-Star Mince instead of Premium Lean for a while, but we’ll make it through.
Rudd & Swan are going to have their work cut out for them to keep the Australian economy in good order after this;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/30/wallstreet.marketturmoil
Banks are either collapsing or nationalised in Britain & Europe as well asin the USA. George Monbiot gives a decent examination of where it all went wrong here;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/30/marketturmoil.subprimecrisis
The American people may be a bit slow sometimes but these two commenters seem to have it nailed.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/30/wallstreet.marketturmoil1
Adam 203
Quiute right. Not only do small businesses cry wolf tooo often, but they also exaggerate their importance to the economy. Many are in fields that are really just transaction costs to the real engines of our economy. They’re a bit like farmers on that one. Overall the economy needs to encourage women to remain in/rejoin the workforce. Paid ML helps other nations achieve that.
from BB 192
Malcolm Farr says
“But economic growth here, already slowing, could be further retarded and Government revenue will come in significantly below the levels anticipated in ther May Budget.”
didn’t they announce last week that they were $3bil better off than was anticipated?
Malcolm’s just hanging onto his old Rudd Bashing habits. He’ll get out of them eventually. He’s actually made a lot of progress in the past few months.
Watching Rudd this morning being firm, calm & reassuring (what some call boring) I am so glad Oz made the right choice in Nov 07.
Vera,
The receipts for the year 2007/2008 came in $3b better than forecast but the forecast surplus for the year 2008/2209 of I think, $22b could take a fair hit if the meltdown in the Us and elsewhere has a substantial effect on our economy.
I’m concerned about Costello’s Future Fund investments in the US by an Investment Broker who already has a history of failure in his past.
I hope Rudd & Swan had enough sense to try and fireproof it somewhat. Otherwise it may all just go up in a puff of smoke. $80 something billion wasn’t it.
Only small change in the US but means quite a lot in the scheme of things here.
Cozzie has a lot to explain for spruiking the super scheme from last year too. Today there’ll be a lot of people wishing they’d never heard of it or Peter Costello.
Thanks Scorpio, but you are scaring me with news of Smirks rash investments. I wonder if he’ll still be in parliament if and when his chooks come home to roost.
Vera,
I would think that there are a number of reasons why Costello has seen fit to keep a low profile and avoid being placed in a position where he can be directly challenged on his record of skillfully operating the levers & buttons of the finely tuned race car.
I just hope for all our sakes that Rudd & Swan are able to dodge the bullets that our “best Treasurer of all time” left for them.
Management of the Future Fund has come up before and to be fair it seems to be being well handled and is reported regularly. They had parked a lot of their cash in short term cash deposits which has the twin benefits of propping up the equity in our local banks and at the same time limiting their exposure to current losses in share prices. If they have done as claimed the FF should be in an excellent position to buy stocks when the market settles down.
It looks as though Liberal policy is going to continue to originate back at Liberal Party Headquarters at News Ltd. Samantha Maiden is helping out with this contribution.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24423977-11949,00.html
I love the way they pre-empt reports and positions. The old crystal ball is getting a fair old work-over lately.
Adam in Canberra
Even Kevin Rudd knows that small business needs protections from unfair dismissal laws
If you are running a 10 people business, you do not know if you will have enough work in 6 months to employ someone else.
If there are unfair dismissal law, if you employed someone and had to lay off the person, and he/she sues you, you will lose your business and 10 people become unemployed
Just the cost of the lawyer could be crippling (that is why work place lawyer want the rule removed)
If unfair dismissal law applied to small business, it encourage them to not hire or hire casual employees/contractors (higher rates), that is not good for the employee and the employers alike. There should be some fluidity in the system
I don’t know if bludgers have already read this Mungo MacCallum article, if not it’s fun reading.
this about Rudds trip
“Rudd, by contrast, is a born internationalist, but this does not mean his trips are fun – just ask the journalists who, increasingly reluctantly, take part in them. No more visits to five star hotels on the excuse that they need to stay close to their leader; Kevin and Therese are quite happy to save the taxpayers money by camping with the local ambassador and their entourage can make its own arrangements. And forget about sporting events, or any other kind of genteel tourism; it’s still Kevin 24/7, both in the air and on the ground and this applies in spades to his latest trek to the United States.”
and about Smirk’s book lol
“At the close of the Brisbane writers’ festival on Sunday (and seeing the big display) I asked the booksellers how many Costello memoirs they’d sold to the 20,000 people who’d passed through the festival over the week. “Umm,” said the manager. “None actually.”
http://www.echo.net.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1045&Itemid=543
ABC Sydney is running a “Depression Era Special” show this afternoon: old hard-luck songs, recipes for rabbit stew and so on. Didn’t even raise a smile from me. In fact when someone rang up and said it could be worse – Earth could be hit by a bolide – I found it hard to get my mind off the possibility.
But reading this from Mungo:
…got me laughing out loud. Good on yer Mungo. Thanks for the tip, Vera.
Socrates,
Here is a list of Investment Managers for the Future Fund and the list of Asset Classes where the funds are invested.
http://www.futurefund.gov.au/investment/investment_managers
A quick scan of this list doesn’t give me a lot of comfort. They also haven’t updated the “Interim Reports” of the Investment Portfolios since the 31st of January this year.
I wonder why?
Some of those Asset Classed have “crashed” since January.
http://www.futurefund.gov.au/investment/portfolio_updates
Dovif, read Julia Gillard’s speech at the Press Club the other day.
http://mediacentre.dewr.gov.au/mediacentre/Gillard/Releases/IntroducingAustraliasNewWorkplaceRelationsSystem.htm
Be calm. All is in good hands.
Small business wont be happy until wages are pushed down to zero…
And they go out of business.
“Cozzie has a lot to explain for spruiking the super scheme from last year too. Today there’ll be a lot of people wishing they’d never heard of it or Peter Costello.”
Wasn’t he encouraging and giving people the opportunity to park their spare million in super? The wealthy wont be happy with that free gift from government.
http://www.switzer.com.au/web_pages/articles_and_tools/financial_planning_and_superannuation/new_superannuation_rules_explained.html
One growth area with the Future Fund is in the number of parasites which are feeding of Australian Taxpayers money.
Seems as though there may be some “limited” updated information here but I don’t expect it to reveal too much.
http://www.futurefund.gov.au/news_room
Yeah, get your hands on $1m as quick as possible and whack it into the investment of a lifetime.
For the greater majority it’s probably not looking so good now. Especially for those who borrowed the money to invest.
Remember the old saying; “if it seems too good to be true, it probably is”.
It looks as though John Mc Cain has been taking lessons off the Aussie Liberal Party in how to “pass the buck”!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24423937-2703,00.html
Err, John, take another look at those voting figures. Just how stupid does he think the American people are?
Sorry, don’t bother answering that!
I loved this comment though.
No, not when it’s easier to blame someone else.
Now where have I heard that before? Now I remember, all the economic problems in Australia since Nov 24, 2007, are all the fault of one Kevin Rudd.
Everything was just rosy prior to that!
It was only about an hour ago that I read an article in the OZ saying how the Reserve can’t possibly reduce interest rates now with all the uncertainty going around, and then I read this;
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24424942-20142,00.html
Well maybe Rudd can find some ‘narrative’ in all this. International affairs seem to be assuming a more publically obvious important role when domestic economics and Climate Change is added to the issue. Australia needs to manage its risks, spread its risks and develop its relationship with the growing economies who more and more depend on China. And who better understands this, has shown is skill at this and seeming more able to prosecute the task? Im sure there is a narrative in this – and the bad thing for the Coalition is they have no profile on this apart from Howard being the Sherrif.
dovif @ 218,
I don’t know where you get this stuff from, but it is almost completely wrong. I spent more than 25 years in Industrial Relations and know what I am talking about.
Most employers are members of Employer Associations, (Unions) and are represented free by therm.
No lawyers were ever needed if the employer complied with the Award & Legislation. Besides that they are a waste of money anyway. As an Industrial Advocate for 6 years or so, I took on 34 firms of Lawyers in Unfair Dismissal cases (not what you are talking about) and beat the whole 34.
I used to average around 5 unfair dismissals per week. Of those, 95% were settled by negotiation directly with the employer. Of those settled by negotiation or in the Industrial Tribunals, none were of such a substantial settlement as to cause any noticeable damage to the employers business.
Funny how through the eight years or so of the unfair dismissal laws during Howard’s reign, that unemployment dropped from 8.5% to 5%. If employers wanted or needed workers, they hired them. If they no longer needed some, they made them redundant. All within the laws at the time which worked quite well.
Well put Tommy.
I have lenses manufactured in Nanjing for the work I do (optical design), and I was speaking to the CEO of the company about some technical points just yesterday. We got around to talking about the Sub-Prime Crisis and Ameriica’s role in the world. He said he thought they were finished as the leading nation of the world, at east as far as setting an example for us all to follow was concerned.
I asked him if he’d ever heard about Kevin Rudd. Well, I couldn’t shut him up for the next five minutes. The fact that Rudd simply speaks Mandarin is looked upon by him and his business colleagues in China as utterly compelling. He predicts a bright future for trade between our two countries and only good things happening as a result. He puts most of it down to our recognition of the seriousness and potential of the relationship. Rudd, he said, was “the new man of Asia.” It was actually starting to get embarrassing, he was so effusive.
OK, so a sample of 1 out of 1.3 billion, but I’ve heard this a lot, from all types of sources (maybe not so excitedly as from my lens maker, though). Many, many people in China know of and admire Rudd and Australia.
To think that just a few years ago Howard was crowing about how comprehensively vital to our future was the FreeTrade deal with the US. And how Shanahan wrote that we should be prepared to go to war with China over Taiwan, on the Americans’ side, not “kow-tow” to them like the Mandarin-speaking “would-be Prime Minister” was doing. There was a lot more like that going around at the time, too.
With a wonderful sense of timing and irony, it was the Chinese and other Asian voters of Eastwood who booted Howard out.
There really is a narrative there in our fresh approach to Asia – and it’s a pretty compelling one. I’d like to see the smirkers say otherwise and not get laughed out of town.
BB @ 232 -
To think that just a few years ago Howard was crowing about how comprehensively vital to our future was the FreeTrade deal with the US.
Most of the sectors that advantage us, especially in agriculture, don’t even kick in for up to another decade. By then America will be a much less significant trading partner than it now is, which is already considerably less that it was say a decade ago. This will be especially so if McCain/Palin get their bums on the big chair in the Oval Office.
Why are news services saying the stock exchange drop is the worst % fall ever? I am sure “Black Monday” about a decade ago was 21% compared to 8%.
Micheal Pascoe says it does not even make the top ten of record daily falls.
This “crisis” will be forgotten by Christmas. The big winners will be Rudd and Swan – lower interest rates and steering the economy through the “great debt swindle”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
Looks like we have a way to go yet.
ruawake, I believe they are reporting the U.S. situation. Here the market was down about 3.5% a few hours ago, compared to a one day fall of nearly 25% back in September 1987, the last time a Republican Prez created a financial implosion. That was the start of the “recession we had to have” which the Libs have blamed Keating for ever since.
Our stock market dropped a total of 50% then and didn’t regain the losses until well into 1994.
I think you’ll find it is the biggest Dollar amount loss in the US. It may also be close here too as 8% of over 5,000 points is almost the same as 21% of about 2,300 points in September 1987. If memory serves me right.
I’m not sure what drugs some Liberal supporters are on, but I think it is time they changed their chemist.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/madness_is_all_in_the_mind/
Exactly how does one base an argument that the Rudd Government is illegitimate or not entitled to be in government?
Muskiemp
The dollar loss is only a “paper one” you lose nothing if you do not sell shares, unless of course you invested in companies that go belly up.
We saw the ASX bounce back a bit this afternoon, why? Because there are smart cookies out there snapping up bargains on the share market casino. But of course these are the guys who have money not debt.
Not sure Itep, but I would love a dollar for every similar statement made across the blogisphere.
I would have no trouble riding out the current financial crisis.
Muskiemp
The dollar loss is only a “paper one” you lose nothing if you do not sell shares, unless of course you invested in companies that go belly up.
We saw the ASX bounce back a bit this afternoon, why? Because there are smart cookies out there snapping up bargains on the share market. But of course these are the guys who have money not debt.
(Reposted minus moderation bot word)
Rep, it’s the old Liberal ‘born to rule’ mentality. Yes, Rudd won the election, but all right thinking persons, i.e. them, know that only they have the intelligence to man the economic levers when the country in the midst of a crisis. The fact that most such crises have been created by the Libs and/or their friends is immaterial.
scorpio, the longer they delude themselves that way, the longer they will be in opposition
They’re just running on momentum. They don’t have a clue. Most of the issues they have said are unpopular are actually quite well-received by the punters, who are much more concerned that the economic boat is not rocked through “dramatic” actions by the government (or kibbitzing by Turnbull… who seems to have realised this given his temperatre comments today).
I’d reckon what they’re REALLY scared of is that we weather this storm nicely. Doing that would put paid to the “Libs better on economy” meme for good.
It does not really matter that the “Global Shocks” were blamed on Whitlam and Hawke, this time it is different.
The vast majority of people realise that this started in the US, that is why Rudd keeps waffling on about pressuring the US congress to sort it out. Of course he has zero influence, it is all for domestic consumption.
The “narrative” is – the USA has stuffed up, we are willing to help, but if the economy takes a hit it is all the USA’s fault.
Rudd has just got a “get out of jail free” card. All economic discussion will resolve around the twits in America until the next budget.
re: 243
Oops. Sorry
Repltep. Time I got a new monitor.Well put Ruawake… going to NY reinforced the “overseas” origins of the meltdown. Hardly a pundit disagrees with the trip (as amended by circumstances). All they are left with is some waffle about Kevin-747… generalizations based on wishful thinking that the punter will see the trip as a junket (yesterday’s Essential Research even showed that the original reason – to attend the UN to lobby for a position on the Security Council – was well received).
[The “narrative” is - the USA has stuffed up, we are willing to help, but if the economy takes a hit it is all the USA’s fault.}
Rudd sure is willing to help ruawake. He has now authorised the Reserve Bank to pump $30b into propping up the US dollar and imprive liquidity in the credit/exchange market.
$20b more announced today.
Damn, imprive – “improve”.
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