Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

Brisbane’s Courier-Mail today carries a Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland voters showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50.4-49.6 at the November 2007 election. Both parties are down on the primary vote – Labor from 42.9 per cent to 41 per cent and the Coalition from 44.5 per cent to 44 per cent – while the Greens are up from 5.6 per cent to 9 per cent. Also included are questions on preferred leader (Kevin Rudd 57 per cent, Malcolm Turnbull 34 per cent) and economic management.

The first Essential Research poll conducted entirely on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch should be through either this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

UPDATE: No bounce for Turnbull from Essential Research, whose two-week rolling average has moved a point in Labor’s favour to the Nelson-era level of 58-42. Also featured are leadership approval ratings and questions on preferred Treasurer (Swan 34 per cent, Bishop 19 per cent), Kevin Rudd’s overseas travel (51 per cent believe he should have gone to the US, 30 per cent say he shouldn’t) and the value of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

442 Comments

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  1. 251
    Muskiemp
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 6:10 pm | Permalink

    BB,
    I sold quite a few Insurance Bonds (AMP) in 1987. I had very unhappy customers in October. Those that wanted to get out did lose money. Those that let them mature made their profits, also increased there profits with the de mutualisation of AMP and received their free shares. Of coarse those that sold their free AMP shares not long after receiving them made a killing at somewhere between $18 and $22 a share.

  2. 252
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    ...he certainly does not have legitimacy or entitlement.

    Legitamcy = Rudd won the election, good majority in HOR.
    Rudd won the election = entitlement

    I know lefties say some pretty strange things from time to time but the right-wingers are on whole other level of delusion. And indicate they believe in a one party ‘democracy’.

  3. 253
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

    Scorpio back at 238 and others getting their knickers in a knot. I went and had a read of the posts on Jack’s blog, and my reading of that particular one was that s/he had their tongue very firmly in their cheek. I actually suspected someone from here!

  4. 254
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    HSO, yeah after I read a few more comments from the same poster, I came to that conclusion too.

    Although you never can tell these days. Some of the RWDB’s are wacky enough for almost anything.

    Doesn’t change the fact though that comments similar in vein to this are everywhere on the web.

  5. 255
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 7:54 pm | Permalink

    BTW, when, do you suppose the MSM might start accusing Malcolm of “Me Tooism” with the daily calls for bi-partisanship and support for Labor’s IR changes? And will he be tempted beyond his ability to restrain himself, to choke the living s**t out of the shadow Environment bloke?

  6. 256
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

    Percival Frontbottom may have things coming out of the wrong orifice? :)

  7. 257
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:02 pm | Permalink

    scorpio, I think that’s the point. Don’t doubt what you’re saying about the comments elsewhere on the web, or the ‘born to rule’ mentality, for that matter, but my, they’ve taken a severe battering of late. It’s one of the reasons why I think Turnbull keeps popping up wanting bi-partisanship on the financial woes crashing about us. It’s the only way he can keep his profile on camera and on air.

  8. 258
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

    ruawake, is it you, you silly boy?

  9. 259
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

    Well, just worked up the courage to look at my Super account for the past 12 months.

    About 17% down in the last year.

    Actually better than I was expecting. What about youse?

  10. 260
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

    Percival Frontbottom seems to have things a bit ar$e about face it appears.

  11. 261
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

    P.S. I blame KRudd.

  12. 262
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill, kind of you to ask. I’ve lost $85,000 odd. I reckon I’ll be working till I drop. Mind you, in my game, if they’ll still talk to you and you’re making sense to them, that’s probably O.K.. It’s when I stop making sense, I worry about. OTOH, we’re probably stuffed anyway, if that report on Larvatus Prodeo about the methane gurgling up from under the Arctic is any where near correct.

  13. 263
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    BB,
    my rollover lost 12% to June 30th. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has not lost at least that much again since July,1 the way things are crashing at present.

    A few years ago it was losing around 8.5 grand a year. I had almost got that back and all of a sudden away it goes again.

    A couple of retired guys I played golf with last week said they had lost well over $100 k each in 12 Months.

    It’s got a long way to go yet and is going to hurt the little guy the most, especially those closer to retirement. They aren’t going to have the time available to recover.

    The Super and Investment Funds are the largest investors in the share market and if they start cutting their losses and shifting assets elsewhere, then the economy is in for a very rough ride.

  14. 264
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Wasn’t asking for dollar amounts. Just percentages.

  15. 265
    Glen
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    bah it’s only a paper loss and the market will rebound in good time.

  16. 266
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    For once I agree with you, Glen.

  17. 267
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    No 265

    Well my parents have lost zero. All super is in a DIY term deposit until the storm clears.

  18. 268
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Smart move GP. For those able to shift their funds without penalty, there is a cool 8.2 to 8.5 percent still on offer for short term IBD’s.

  19. 269
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    No 268

    Yep. My parents have never trusted the stock market anyway.

  20. 270
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Well, Glen, for some of us older b******s, it may only be on paper, but we’re stuffed. Totally screwed. Buggered. Terrific legacy from Bush and the Republicans and their affiliates. A bit like the bitter legacy from Howard and Costello.

  21. 271
    Glen
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    Oh come on Harry cheer up, the fact is you only lose any of your money if you sell, you still get dividends and DRPs to offset any current paper loss.

    Harry you’d wouldnt have the money to lose if it wasnt for Howard and Costello running a ship shape economy here!

    These things happen, you just need to get over it.

    Harry I hardly think it is fair to blame Bush and the Republicans for everything, I think it is a far deeper problem that the good times got to the heads of Wall St and the Banks and they blew it themselves. I dont think Bush or the Democrats are to blame for this, the people running the Banks and the people giving out those loans are to blame.

  22. 272
    Winston
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    271

    Logic isn’t your strong point is it Glen?

    So we have Howard and Costello to thank for good economic times but when things turn bad it’s someone else’s fault.

  23. 273
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Howard and Costello to thank for good economic times

    The strong prudential regulation of our financial system did not emerge thanks to Kevin Rudd on November 24, 2007.

  24. 274
    Glen
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    They are different completely, look as a Government you can only do so much ie budget surplus and investments in infrastructure but even all that wont stop the economic meltdown seen in the USA.

    No matter the budget surplus or lack there of in America it wouldnt have stopped what happened.

    Howard and Costello helped very much so but nobody can say they did it all themselves i merely point out they did a good job.

  25. 275
    Winston
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    Glen @ 274

    Agree with more than half of that.

    My point was that your response to HSO that he should thank Howard and Costello that he has money to lose (because “these things happen”) was somewhat glib.

  26. 276
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Yeah, Glen they did a fab job … of screwing us. Let me just give you a brief synopsis. Worked from when I was 14, worked my way through Uni, worked from when my twins were 11 months old, have worked ever since, sometimes in both the public and private sectors. I’ve just seen near to a half of what I’d put into Super over the years, disappear.

  27. 277
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    HSO, what hurts the most for me is that the Funds still have the hide to charge “Management Fees” on top of what they lose on our behalf.

    In my case it is something like 1.5% but has a minimum floor rating so that even if they lose most of your money, they still extract a substantial sum out of you.

    ie. 1.5% or $x, which ever is the highest.

    More like legalised robbery than what GP thinks the taxation system is. At least you get something back for the taxes you pay.

  28. 278
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    I can only agree, scorpio. The latest rubbish from George the lesser, is just astonishing, I reckon.

  29. 279
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    I can’t believe this. A potential Global financial meltdown staring them in the face & the US Congress is packing up to go on holiday!

    But when it comes to scurrility, it will be difficult to beat the halls of the US Capitol, ground zero of this economic catastrophe.

    Or, to be more precise, in the empty halls of the Capitol. After the US Representatives drop-kicked the bailout bill, triggering another Black Monday -- and leading to a 777.68 point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average -- Congressmen and women headed home to their constituencies. The occasion is Rosh Hashana, a congressional holiday.

    It is difficult to believe, but on the day after the disaster, the doors of political process in Washington are closed and will only be opened for business again on Thursday.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,581444,00.html

  30. 280
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    No 277

    HSO, what hurts the most for me is that the Funds still have the hide to charge “Management Fees” on top of what they lose on our behalf.

    In my case it is something like 1.5% but has a minimum floor rating so that even if they lose most of your money, they still extract a substantial sum out of you.

    ie. 1.5% or $x, which ever is the highest.

    That’s part of the reason why the more I read into this mess, the less I want the Government to bail these imbeciles out.

    Socialising the financial system is like shifting the deckchairs on the Titanic. A recession is imminent either way and taxpayers shouldn’t be drawn into it any more than they already are.

  31. 281
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    No 276

    Howard and Costello aren’t responsible for your gargantuan losses.

  32. 282
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Conservatives in Germany copping the Howard treatment.

    The conservative Christian Social Union turned in its worst election result since 1954 in Bavarian state elections on Sunday. The ballot box collapse brings a decades-long political monopoly to an end -- and may call Chancellor Angela Merkel's re-election into question.

    In the run up to Sunday's state parliamentary elections in Bavaria, it was clear that the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), the party which has dominated the state's political leadership almost since World War II, was in trouble. Nobody, though, expected the result to be quite as bad as it turned out.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,581077,00.html

  33. 283
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Social Democrats up in Austria. Although it looks likely a coalition with the far right.

    In the tent full of Social Democrats set up just a few meters from the Burg Theater, the applause is deafening. The loudspeaker is blaring "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow" as the head of Austria's Social Democratic SPÖ party mounts the podium and celebrates. Looking elegant in his dark suit and gray-blue tie, he glances around the room visibly touched. "We intend to build a government," he says, though his words are drowned out by the clapping.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,581098,00.html

  34. 284
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Crikey, bang goes the surplus.

    THE head of China's leading steel company says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both "heading for a downward slide", as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia's resource-dependent economy from the widening global downturn.

    The comments by Baosteel's chairman, Xu Lejiang, coincide with new evidence that a contraction in Chinese building construction is seriously crimping demand for Australian commodities, like iron ore.

    http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/steel-industry-in-china-crumples-20080929-4qct.html

    If our commodity trade with China collapses, we’re in deep dodo.

  35. 285
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    "A very large number of small steel mills are cutting production," he said.

    For the first time in more than five years, Chinese buyers can purchase spot market Indian iron ore as cheaply as Australian iron ore on long-term contracts, including freight costs.

    Some observers believe contract iron ore prices will fall next year, for the first time in seven years. "We've always said that by the time we break the benchmark price-setting system, the boom will be over anyway," said an Australian mining executive.

    This will mean a drop-off in coal prices and exports as production drops.

  36. 286
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    A recession is imminent either way and taxpayers shouldn’t be drawn into it any more than they already are.

    Oh OK, so you are advocating to simply let those “taxpayers” lose their jobs followed by their homes.

    Once that happens they’ll no longer be taxpayers.

  37. 287
    scorpio
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    GP, check this out. Not a good time to retire.

    "Unless the market recovers quickly - within the next five years or so - these retirees will have lost a huge amount of money.

    "If anyone is planning to retire soon they should postpone for at least two to three years."

    He said it was a crushing blow for the many Australians who had moved into superannuation funds in recent years to take advantage of tax breaks, as the recent losses would now far outweigh any tax benefits.

    CommSec market analyst Juliette Saly said in a worst case scenario, some superannuation funds invested in high risk stocks could have fallen by 27 per cent over the last year, in line with world markets. The fall would equate to a $67,500 loss from a $250,000 fund.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/thinking-about-retiring-think-again/2008/09/30/1222651047987.html

  38. 288
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    GP, check this out. Not a good time to retire.

    Obviously it is the person’s own fault for getting old and thus having to retire.

    :D

  39. 289
    scorpio
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    More here;

    [In a further dent to superannuation funds around the country, the overnight meltdown on US markets is taking its toll on the local exchange today.

    "We know our market's going to open up 5 or 6 per cent down, which will wipe another 3 to 4 per cent off super funds in today's trade, assuming it closes in the same position," Bresnahan said before the opening.

    "There's very little you can do to stop, for want of a better word, the carnage.

    "That will take the rolling 12-month return to minus-12 per cent for a balanced option [fund].”]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/panic-builds-as-nest-eggs-scrambled/2008/09/30/1222651041721.html

    Funny how that 12% quoted here exactly matches my Rollover loss for 2007/08 and now I’ve lost 4% in just one day.

  40. 290
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    I do recall Rudd campaigning on planning for beyond the mining boom. Every one scoffed – the mining boom had be going on for ages. How to plan for beyond the mining boom – education, infrastructure.

    Wonder if the MSM will recall.

  41. 291
    Generic Person
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    No 288

    Investing your retirement savings in a high risk fund is your own fault.

  42. 292
    ShowsOn
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    Investing your retirement savings in a high risk fund is your own fault.

    All funds are high risk when the stock market keeps going down by 4% in a day.

    Hopefully this is the end of stupid Reaganomics/Bushanomics – give everyone a huge tax cut and hope for the best economic theory.

  43. 293
    Daniel B
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:38 am | Permalink

    Random question: does anyone know where one can find the current federal pendulum? There are loads of 2004 ones around…

  44. 294
    Dario
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:40 am | Permalink

    All funds are high risk when the stock market keeps going down by 4% in a day

    Not cash funds

  45. 295
    Generic Person
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    No 292

    I classify a high-risk fund as one that is insufficiently diversified.

  46. 296
    Generic Person
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    No 294

    Not cash funds

    Exactly.

  47. 297
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    Well I guess slowing economies if they dont recover reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We might all make our targets withoug trying. History books will show that the Bush administration accidentally saved the world by crashing the global economy. jj

  48. 298
    Dario
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 12:59 am | Permalink

    History books will show that the Bush administration accidentally saved the world by crashing the global economy

    hahahahaha

  49. 299
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    Winston @ 272:

    So we have Howard and Costello to thank for good economic times but when things turn bad it’s someone else’s fault.

    It appears that way. Costello, who spruiked his million dollar super changes last year as a great way to go, now blames the poor sods who took his advice for any losses thay have suffered. He says to ask the financial advisers why they urged their customers to take up the “opportunity”.

    "I'm sure if you went around to some financial advisers you could find people who did push that. I'm sure you could. I'd make inquiries of financial advisers."

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24428669-5013404,00.html

  50. 300
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2008 at 10:49 am | Permalink

    Our national newspaper continues it’s campaign against doing anything about CC. Their colour writer makes this somewhat disingenuous comment.

    According to the Lowy Institute poll, the average Australian couldn’t give a fig about climate change.

    21% won’t pay anything extra. 32% will pay $10 a month extra. That means that 47% will pay more than $10 a month to address CC. But somehow, the smallest group of 21% becomes the “average Australian”.

    Jobs more important than climate change action
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24417308-5009760,00.html

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