Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.
1,274 Comments
The question is – can Obama keep the lead up? And for how long?
Methinks his lead will start to contract after (if!) the bailout is passed and the economy disappears from the front pages for a few days…
Swing Lowe,
For 36 days
yes, he is the culprit. blame it on Alan Greenspan who once cautioned the stock market not too be “too exuberance”.
The easiest way to stop the stock market from being too exuberant is to increase interest rates, but Greenspan refused to do that, which is why so much bad credit is now killing the market.
It is going to be 36 very interesting days!
Particularly I’m looking forward to the VP discussion.
This is going to have a huge impact on the polls.
I use a widget to keep track of the progression of polls. The widget shows the election polls by strength of states.
In addition to other different graphical visualizations of data, this one displays the progression of votes over time.
Hereby you can see how/if the states have moved!
It gives a great overview and it is updated as the polls come in!
http://www.youcalc.com/apps/1221747067033
… and its easy to put on your blog and fits in your sidebar!
Make a difference, keep on voting!
I note that William is still struggling to contain his enthusiasm for his favourite thread.
The UMR poll he links reflects PB. Of Labor voters, 79% want Obama to win and only 6% want McCain to win. Now that Adam has gone, where are we going find that 6%! Perhaps Ron could take one for the team.
For William’s benefit though, post 5 looks and smells a lot like a bot post. Quite a few very similar blog comments posted in the last few hours if you Google some of the phrases used.
Plus, he used my favourite footballers name in vain.
Who bothered to commission a poll into Australian perspectives on the US presidential election? A real waste of money.
I think some commentators are right in that Palin would do better if not trying to parrot some learned responses. Under pressure she is trying to remember all the points she has learnt and in consequence sounds incoherent and painful.
They may as well let her answer as best she can from whatever it is she knows and whatever common sense she has – at least (one hopes) it would be logical and coherent – even if ignorant of some of the facts and realities. Better to sound ignorant that sound like a nut case.
Focus on Iowa.
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/09/30/1932997-mccain-focusing-on-iowa-despite-polls
Obama’s doing well now, let’s hope he can crush McCain in Nov. The Aus survey seems to be about right. A pity Labor can never hope for those kinds of figures.
Itep: I heart that survey. To use an American metaphor, it shows that Australian states are naturally “blue”, not “red”. Even our most conservative states (W.A. and Qld.) dislike McCain, and they dislike Palin more.
Re 12,
Too bad that we can’t translate that dislike for Republicans into dislike for the Libs and Nats
There would be no other surving party if Labor got figures like that.
steve
McCain has completely lost it if he thinks he’s got a chance in Iowa. He should be in MI or PA. One has to question the man’s sanity.
I was pleased to see that all of McCain’s talk about getting a bipartisan approach to the bailout actually bore fruit in his home state. He must have a lot of pull in Arizona. The Dems and the Repugs voted unanimously together. There were four Dems and four Repugs in Congress and all eight voted AGAINST the bailout. He must be real popular in Arizona.
Obama got a level vote in Illinois with the Dems 7-4 and Repugs 2-5.
This is McCain’s only chance to ascend the pinnacle of power in the US.
He is now in desperation mode and the next 6 weeks should be interesting.
There will be no stone left unturned in his scramble for votes. ANY VOTES.
Fasten the seatbelts and enjoy the ride. Can’t wait for the VP’s debate Thursday.
RealPolitics is now giving North Carolina to Obama if you look at their EV map with no tossup states
……. up to 301 now folks 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Here’s Geoff Elliott’s take on it in the Oz.
And finishes with the “Money Quote”.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php
I question why McCain is campaigning in Iowa.
Obama has been surprisingly strong there. McCain’s got a (much) better shot in neighbouring Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The only one of those four that haven’t been polled recently (i.e. since the financial crisis started in earnest) is Indiana. I’m fascinated to see what movement (if any) has taken place there. It’s a difficult state to figure out because it is demographically unique – a very red state in the middle of the very purple midwest…
You guys have been too harsh on George W. he does have some usefulness:
http://home.people.net.au/~sspp/bush.jpg
Well, It’s getting colder over there boom boom
Interesting point all the Congressman from Sarah Palin voted against the bail-out.
If the Market tanks or a major new crisis develops then Thursday VP debate may wreck the McCain campaign.
I was blog surfing U.S blogs and there was one blog that I can’t recall at present but if William would like I will attempt to locate, the Blog at a serious of state polls and it was Interesting to see several states that voted for Bush leaning towards Obama.
I think Obama will go on and win in November but it will be a close result.
juliem has already provided the link to the blog I mentioned in previous post
What do you mean ‘all the Congressman from Sarah Palin’?
Interesting link to what may be the political repercussions of this morning’s bailout vote:
http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/three_scenarios.php
Personally, I don’t think that the 3rd scenario described is accurate – recessions have come and gone (several times) in the past 40 years and there hasn’t been too many radical political realignments in the US (1968 is the only one that comes to mind, which happened during the Vietnam war and counterculture protests).
My pick is that McCain will continue to suffer until the bailout is sorted out (won’t be done by Thursday our time earliest) and it will then be up to him to cut back as much into Obama’s lead as fast as possible.
As for Congress – we all know that the Dems will retain both the House and Senate – but, whilst I see strong gains for the Dems in the Senate, I only see a modest pickup of seats for them in House…
LTEP,
I think Mexicanbeemer means the Congressman from Alaska (Rep. Young – R).
Given that he’s in the fight for his political life (he’s trailing by 14 points in the last poll out there), it was highly unlikely that he was ever going to vote for what was considered to be a highly unpopular bailout (although I think people’s opinion of it will change now that the value of their 401-Ks took a major hit yesterday)…
The economy is not going to dissappear between now and November. The only way it will stabilise is if they do a (very costly to taxpayers) deal. In the mean time the falout continues. The despeate announcements lately have been about avoiding that fallout. Never mind the share price falls (still only about 25% overall, which compares to the one day loss in 1987) the real drama will be the coming collapse of equity funds and the employment consequences as incomes decline. Australia is much better off and the government here is acting quite sensibly to protect us (insane revenue blocking measures in the Senate aside). But the US is headed for a long recession – nobody will loan them the cash to get out of it.
I think he meant Alaska.
This new Rasmussen poll says that it is about even between those who support and oppose the bail out:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/opposition_to_bailout_plan_falls_dramatically
It’s basically a third each in favour, opposed, and unsure or uncommitted.
So I think the idea that it is strongly opposed by the public is wrong.
I think this add on Google might be a bit out of date or misleading, somehow!
I return today to see 1.25 trillion lost , bailout fails , 12 votes decided $800billion
95 Democrats and 133 Republicans killed it and is anyone so foolish as to suggest only th Republicans killed it when a 10 year maths student will know EITHER Partys votes killed it , so both ar equally responsible
Econamically th bailout was/is necessary ONLY because of its flow on effects on both US & world economy
I must say from my hart I would hav favored a ronanomics solution…let all those greedy and/or irresponsible credit decsion making Banks etc go broke , let there high powered brown paper finacial engineers go ta ta without parachute $ exits , provide finacial relief for employees affected re welfare etc , wow i’ve still got 790 billion left…so 120 billion for universal healthcare , ‘trade’ with viable banks to rejig loans on capacity to repay so homeowners hav opportunity to reasonable repay wthin means but keep houses & stabilise house prices , implement a ‘poor’ climb ladder program , and with rest ring th Chinese to keep it…and sack any who won’t be reprogrammed to accept adequate ‘regulation’, standards & disclosure and balanced budgets , or maybe just abolish econamists anyway
ShowsOn @ 28,
I read an article today (sorry forgot to save the link) which said that the safety of ones seat was directly related to how they voted on the bailout plan. Those who were in tough reelection races were overwhelmingly voting against it. Ditto for the opposite end of the spectrum. And for those who aren’t up for reelection? They voted (think the numbers were about 2 dozen or so?) all but two for the bailout plan.
If they knew they didn’t have to answer to anyone or that they were safe, they voted for it. Otherwise not ……
Ron
Any chance you could support McCain? We badly need a Repug supporter to bash up now that Adam has left, hopefully temporarily.
The ronanomics solution looks good to me.
Both Parties killed the bailout but they are not equally responsible. 66% Dems said yes and only 30% Repugs agreed so the Repugs are more responsible which must be eating away at McCain like a cancer.
O’Possum Factor
#1124 dated 30/9/08
“I can only go with the data Dio. The alternative to observable reality is
wishful thinking.”
O’Possum Factor you only ‘go with th data’ when its not adverse to Obama…when its adverse to Obama say like strongly linking him to corrupt sleeze Rezko , then you ‘don’t go with th data’ ….then don’t go with NYT journalistic investigations or ABC News , ah wishful thinking then
Intrade now has Obama at 62.2 vs McCain at 37.6. State by state markets at 338 – 200. Very ugly numbers for the Repubs.
One of McCain’s economic advisers co-wrote a book in 2000 predicting that the Dow would hit 36,000 in a decade:
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0609806998/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222774439&sr=8-3
Apparently the Dow Jones is now lower than when Bush was first elected.
The best break down of this sort I have been able to find was in the Washington Post. All 17 Republicans who won their first term at the last election voted against it! How gutless.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122273311165788291.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
Most likely this would result in a world-wide recession that would take a few years for us to get out of. I don’t see how that would help improve living standards.
LOL! Yeah Ron, it is all the fault of economists.
Exactly what Rezko data are you referring to!?
Obama was at 62.5 earlier in the day. But still, he is up by about 4.5% in the last 36 hours.
Having said that, he was around 60 shortly after his convention, so it seems what has really happened is the Republican convention / Palin factor has washed out, and we are now back basically to where we were before, plus a boost because of the economic issues.
Interestingly, according to this chart Obama’s figures started to take off when Lehman filed for bankruptcy:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/09/on_the_state_of_the_race_1.html
There has been some slight Intrade movement on Palin being withdrawn. It’s now up to 11.9 from 9.5. Nothing to get excited about at this stage but maybe worth keeping an eye on.
ShowsOn
didnt you know about rezko (real name-beezlebub)
apparently after chewing on some latino babies he sets out to enslave some more hos and bros to run his skanky shakedown loansharking slumlord empire.
after lunch he moonlites as a high school careers advisor sic,subverting the youth of tomorrow with his evil plans.
or so i heard
Au contraire my good man O’Ronnly @ 33 – your definition of data (encompassing everything from poorly interpreted pieces of colour research from the NYT, right through to Republican talking point memos and old socks) differs significantly from mine (numbers).
Anyway – that’s an old argument full of heat and little light. I’ve found a site that should keep you occupied for hours
http://obamacrimes.com/
Enjoy!
Shows on – I take offence to blaming it on the economists.
I blame the hippies!
Why? Who cares – this is the US thread where reasons dont seem to be needed very often
ADAM
#1107
Yes your post description of most Obamabots here was 100% accurate , typical elitists whose snobbery & arrogance is a character trait & only equalled by there blind unobjective zealotary belief in Obama , who is a phoney & is anti traditional core ‘left’ policys Th oither Obamabot group th non elitists Obama zealotary believers hav simply copied there brethrens blogging traits
Interestingly when there was a US thread earlier in th year till July , there were approx 30 odd Obamabots then there , 95% of whom who had IDENTICAL traits to first paragraph description…so bad th moderator closed th site down , and they formed there own independent thread (which we of us non obama believers left behind christianed appropriately th obamabot “Gilligans Island’)
As a Labor supporter , I find both Thread’s sets of elitist /zealotary Obamabots completely non traditional aussie Labor both in approach & standards I must also say Obamabots generally display a lame interest in core Labor ‘left’ values provable by there strong unequivacol defences of Obama ,& gallingingly even when phoney Obama is 100% in clear unambiguous breach thereof , and therefore hav always assumed they’re in th far left fringe non Labor zone
Actualy , being a public person you made a wise decision to disassociate yourself from this lot
Me being a non public person can continue to post here unaffected , although primarily to engage th minuscule % of genuine Labor supporters here who believe Obama is ‘left’ of th conservative Republican and belive a change from a Republican admin/dim wit policy corrupt Bush will be benefical I hav no problems with this miniscule % at all So that’s only why I’m still here against th Obama hordes…and still Labor and still defiant
Has there been any poll in the US since the bailout bill was defeated to see whether the majority of voters blame the democrats or the republicans for it? I think McCain is toast either way because of the way he attachd himself to it, but there are still all teh congressional and gubernatorial contests and I imagine this could influence them greatly.
No official numbers yet, but a soon to be released ABC News poll will apparently shows that they blame the Republicans (surprise, surprise)
http://www.politicshome.com/USA/#
Thanks Dario, I think that is significant. Asuming Obama will win now he will want a majority in Congress and teh Senate to work with. If the republicans are blamed for the bailout then I expect he will get both.
How ‘core left’ is McCain’s policy of giving a huge tax cut to rich people by making the Bush tax cuts permanent?
What about his policy of making people put their social security into privatised accounts that are on the stock market?
How ‘core left’ is McCain’s policy of staying in Iraq for 100 years if necessary?
Why don’t you support Obama’s policy of universal health care, and cheaper health care coverage for those who already have it?
How is it ‘core left wing’ to support a V.P. candidate who thinks the earth is less than 7000 years old. I mean, doesn’t the left cherish enlightenment values of evidence and logical reasoning?
I think your idea of what constitutes left wing ideology needs reconsideration.
Some interesting analysis over at 538 on why the Battleground poll is so far away from all the other major polls at the moment (+2 McCain as opposed to +6 to +9 for Obama). It seems Battleground have their age weightings very, very skewed:
In fact, there is an outside chance the Democrats will win 60 Senators, which is enough to stop filibusters.
This page says the Democrats will win about 55 seats, but with a 15% chance they will get to 60, which is the highest level it has been all year:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/senate%20polls
Rasmussen 51/45
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Rasmussen is pretty stable now. McCain needs another stunt!
Maybe his next stunt could be a press conference to announce no new stunts? “Read my lips, no new stunts.”
I just think this week is very crucial. There’s already a big gap in the polls (6% means something like 9 million votes), let’s say Biden only just edges Palin out in the V.P. debate, that will equal another few days of positive coverage for Obama, even more if Palin’s performance is attrocious. So how exactly does McCain then turn it around with just 4 weeks to go?
Given bailout legislation was formulated in Congress where Democrats hav a majority , vote is 205 for and 228 NO to kill th bailout , meaning only 12 votes were needed from th NO voters to pass bailout Bill
Only 12 needed to say YES out of 95 Democrats , or 12 needed out of 133 Republicans
ie. 13% of NO Democrats or 9% of NO Republicans needed to change there vote to YES
How can one argue that there is not equal Party responsibility when only 12 votes were needed This was an equal failure of both Partys HoR representatives , and th “spin” thats its Republican caused is typical of Obama supporters who can not see th saem Congress of Democrat controlled(2 years) and earlier Republican controlled(6 years) hav irreponsibly been passing monstaous budget deficits
From memory only , think current budget was set at minus 160 billion and now pre Wall Street collapse is estimate to exceed 430 billion
Because that is what PEOPLE ACTUALLY THINK as determined by POLLS, the name of this blog is The POLL Bludger. Why is it that you refer to DATA when it suits you, but at all other times ignore it?
Try ignoring the ‘noise’ ShowsOn, it’s not worth it
O’Possum Factor
That line of yours ‘I follow th data when it leads’ certainly got demolished when you chose to ignore it when th credible data I linked was adverse to Obama Now your ever weakening defence relies on a thorough NYT journalistic Report & ABC News Report being prepared by Republican ‘talking points’….its not that your defences ar only going backwards , but additionally also Possum like upside down …perhaps indicating Possums at nite hang upside down creating wishful thinking
I was referring to the congressman from Sarah Palin’s home state and I had a brain freeze and was too lazy to look up Alaska (sorry)
Ron @ 51:
How many Republicans voted against the bill? I imagine not many. You need to provide the figures to back yourself up if you’re going to run that argument.
Aye – 140 Dems, 65 Repubs
Nay – 95 Dems, 133 Repubs
Geez. Any chance of a source? Given the tripe (?) I’ve been reading, anyone’d think it was the other way around, three times as much.
Those liberals are screwing with us for the sake of politics, etc, etc…
http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/09/house-rejects-7.html
The vote against the measure was 228 to 205, with 133 Republicans voting NO and 95 Democrats voting NO The bill was backed by 140 Democrats and 65 Republicans.
Total Democrats in House 235 Democrats & 198 Republicans Total 433
Needed 217 YES votes to pass th Bill , there ar 235 Democrats so even IF everyone of th YE voting 65 Republicans had in fact voted NO , th Democrat majority of 235 could hav passed it
Fact is only 12 of th 95 Democrats OR 12 of th 133 Republicans needed to vote YES rather than NO , and th Bill would hav passed
ie. out of 228 NO votes , only 12 needed to vote YES rather than NO
With such a SMALL extra number needed (12) to pass th Bill out of a huge number 228 who voted NO , I apportion blame to both Partys for bailout demise
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/business/30bailout.html?ex=1238299200&en=ce7084dedfebb29e&ei=5087&excamp=GGBUbailout&WT.srch=1&WT.mc_ev=click&WT.mc_id=BI-S-E-GG-NA-S-bailout
Okay, I checked my facts, and Republicans are blaming it on a devisive speech issued by Pelosi, saying she was playing politics. Which is kind of ironic when you think about it.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080930.htm
Daniel B
#56
“How many Republicans voted against the bill? I imagine not many. You need to provide the figures to back yourself up if you’re going to run that argument.”
I backed my info up with official full voting figures in #60 what sort of tripe do you believe in
Settle down mate. At the point of my post (#56) you hadn’t yet done so; thankyou for sorting it. It’s very informative.
Yes, she talked so nasty to those poor Republicans that they changed their minds. What a mean speaker she is!
Daniel B
you used th word ‘tripe’ first directed at my post , that had already quoted some figures , reasonable first to ask for more info before labelling a post as tripe reely
DARIO & SHOWS ON and others still blaming Democrats ONLY:
I will demonstrate th complete absurdity of Obamabot view that Republicans ar to solely to blame for Bailout Bill’s demise
As preface th actual voting: my #60 post of full voting figures demonstates equal Republican & Democrat responsibility for bail out Bill failing by ONLY 12 votes WHEN 95 Democrats (out of 235) voted NO and 133 Republicans (out of 198) voted NO
THEREFORE if a further 11 Republicans had voted YES , result would be that th Bill WOULD STILL BE LOST/DEFEATED… BY ONE SINGLE VOTE as demonstrated :
YES total votes 216 (made of 140 Democrats AND 76 Republicans)
NO total votes 217 (made of 95 Democrats AND 122 Republicans)
And you would STILL say th blame for th lost Bill vote was solely th Republicans , yous ar logging absurdities just for th sake of it and incidently your colleagues condone it , Obamarotic nonsense
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/business/30bailout.html?ex=1238299200&en=ce7084dedfebb29e&ei=5087&excamp=GGBUbailout&WT.srch=1&WT.mc_ev=click&WT.mc_id=BI-S-E-GG-NA-S-bailout
correction: Republicans ONLY
I find it odd that American politics is different than here where Senate and HOR voting would be as a block following the party platform. In the US it seems they all have a conscience vote?
But I do see that the blame for the Bail Out not proceeding is being put on the Republicans not withstanding there were enough Democrat votes to get it over the line. The blame is also taken for granted and not many are blaming the Democrats so I assume there is some sort of commonly accepted expectation at work here.
This kinda tells me that all that what is expected is a majority of each party vote for the bill and when that doesn’t happen the one that doesn’t provide a majority is the failure. Otherwise I can’t understand what is going on.
Both sides failed as far as I can see as I would have thought it unanimous and those voting against would need to have so valide reason.
That the Republicans came out immediately on the defensive seems to indicate they are understand that it was their failure – otherwise why have your guys come out and say it was Pelosi’s nasty words that changed the 12 and so you can not blame them blame Pelosi. And what kind of excuse is that anyway.
It is all very weird.
I have to agree that while I feel sorry for Palin’s position and feel her embarassment I also feel p*ssed that the Republican’s could suddenly force someone lacking the skills to compete at this level in the spot light. Also Palin’s over self confidence? Or whatever made her accept needs to be questioned. But at the end of the the pick for VP has to be someone who can run the country.
The Sarah Palin pity party
http://www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2008/09/30/palin_pity/index1.html
TP @ 67,
Yup, you pretty much have it. I wouldn’t call it a conscience vote though. Simply that party discipline doesn’t exist the same way that it does here. Over there, the constituents come first, last and always as a motivator behind your vote(s) and the comradeship with your mates is secondary. If people are voting together in a “bloc” it is only because they all had constituents who wanted them to vote in the same way
Amigo Ronnie, this new mob of Obamabots sounds and starting to behave exactly like the other mob that has been banished to the G island. Except the older mob had more personality and fun to tangle.
Kiri – all is forgiven, pls come back.
If you don’t like it – leave.
Finns
Aww jeez that hurts!
On KR, I haven’t seen him at 101 for a while. I hope he’s OK. He’s proven to be right about the state of the economy and if he was OK, I’m pretty sure he would be letting us know.
Palin hasn’t got any better.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/couric-asks-palin-how-she_n_130642.html
Just when you thought Palin couldn’t look any more out of her depth…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRkWebP2Q0Y
I still don’t see how having Palin as Deputy President can be a huge deal after 8 years of Bush as President.
Consider what’s happened in those 8 years ltep…
The sad fact is that Palin is even less experienced that Bush was in 2000.
At the time of that election, he had been Governor of Texas (a much bigger state than Alaska in terms of population) for 6 years and had some experience in Washington as a result of his father. He was also the former CEO of the Houston Astros
Palin has been Governor of Alaska for 2 years, before that being the mayor of some random village/town. She only got a passport 2 years ago and her recent interviews on TV shows her absolute lack of knowledge on foreign affairs (although Bush was notorious for that in 2000, but those were different times)…
I have been following the debate on blame for this and I partially agree with Ron – the democrats share blame for the bailout beind defeated. However thats beside the point – the republican leadership came up with the deal and staked their reputation on it so theya re going to wear the blame for it going down. I still think a (better) deal for a bailout will be done with some amendments in the next few days. There is some urgency to do so.
Also, the real question is who caused this mess in the first place and on that there is no doubt – it was the stupid republicans. See
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/29/republican-talking-point-whack-a-mole-yet-again/
To emphasise that this economic thing isn’t over yet, there is a key date next Tuesday when a lot of hedge fund contracts may become due. They run into the trillions. See
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/business/29hedge.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
As alluded to earlier, US ABC News poll pins the blame for the bailout failing to pass on the congressional Republicans 44% – 21%
For causing the crisis in the first place they blame Bush most at 25%, then Wall St at 18%, Government 8%, Congress 8% (a few too many categories in the poll for my liking).
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1074a1Economy.pdf
Off topic: Canadian P.M Stephen Harper stole his ‘reasons for going into Iraq’ speech from a speech John Howard made 2 days earlier: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8YwJC_nBgw
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24429662-5001021,00.html
Dario
Dolly Downer wrote an article in the Tiser on Monday, which they don’t link to their website, blaming Clinton for the Crash. He argued that Clinton forced banks to provide loans to neighbourhoods without discriminating between the individual households incomes. He said this lead to a lot of Hispanics and African-Americans getting loans who couldn’t afford them (I am NOT making this up). He also blamed Bush for having too low interest rates to keep the ecnomy from going into recession. Dolly specifically said the deregulation was NOT the problenm.
A few letters to the Editor violently disagreed with him the next day.
ltep and Dario,
Hopefully, the US is better than settling for the lowest common denominator
….. Just because we’ve had rubbish for the last 8 years doesn’t mean we have to continue to settle for more rubbish going forward 
……. Obama for change 
Oh, let me guess, Clinton personally aimed a gun at the banks!?
Good to see that Dolly hasn’t lost any of his ‘charm’, or reasoning skills since he retired.
Diogenes 81
Downer’s points are precisely some of the republican talking points dismissed by Quiggan in the link in my post 78! Dolly can’t even make up his own spin. Its rubbish of course; sub-prime loans went far beyond what was required by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). The real problem was the speculative bubble in house prices which occurred in areas unrelated to the CRA.
I’ve found the Dolly article.
Here is the relevant bit, just to show I wasn’t making it up.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24415873-5013696,00.html
Ron @ 65:
What I said was, “Given the tripe I’ve been reading…”.
I.e. before I arrived and commented on your post, I’d been reading some crazy stuff. Not directed at you. Sorry that you were offended.
What! So you pay Downer to do an Op Ed piece and all he does is Google!
Well it worked for Bishop. Seems to be a common theme for the Libs.
What the hell is a “fungible asset” and a “hedge fund”? Perhaps the moderator in the VP debate could ask Palin and Biden to comment on the relevance of the following comment to the Crash.
Hehehe I would love to hear Palin try to answer that. On her recent form Saturday Night Live will soon be paying her by the word.
She will really have to watch what she says in the debate, because with the due date on many hedge contracts coming up next Tuesday, it will be very easy to say something that could be proven spectacularly wrong within a few days.
Palin attacks Biden because of his age (65), ignores the fact her running mate is 72.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/couric-asks-palin-how-she_n_130642.html
fungible just means its similar to other asset types or can be easily exchanged for something else, and a hedge fund is an investment fund that literally hedges its bets to try and reduce risk
Hedge funds are also focused on providing absolute (as opposed to relative) returns for their investors.
As a result, instead of saying that they are aiming for the ASX200 + 5% return per annum, they will instead say (hypothetically) say they are aiming for a 12% return per annum.
Not that you really needed more evidence that Fox News is a joke…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo
I especially like the last one
……. http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/30/so-who-s-winning-now.aspx
[I especially like the last one
……. http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/30/so-who-s-winning-now.aspx
I think it is even worse for McCain than that map shows:
1) I think Obama has a better chance of winning Ohio than North Carolina, which means he would net gain 5 more.
2) Obama is leading in Nevada in the three most recent polls. +5
3) Florida is still line ball, it seems that RCP is giving it to McCain based on long term trends, but the latest polls are a dead heat.
So that RCP chart puts Obama on 301, but it could just as easily be 311, or 338. Though my prediction is still 309, but I’ve forgotten exactly how I got to that figure!
RCP now has Obama at +3% in Virginia… that’s huge
ShowsOn,
Did you enter that contest for the trip to D.C? Or is your prediction of 309 a personal one, not for the contest?
I will offer to keep track of guesses for PB’rs on this topic. No earthly idea what we can use as a reward for closest guess, other than the pride of having guessed so. I will start the list with yours and mine. I said 338 btw
……. Up until McCain shot himself in the foot multiple times in the last 10 days 
I would have said something on the order of 28* but not any more. McCain thinks he had a gutful with Hurricane Gustav, he hasn’t seen the full force of Hurricane Obama yet
I’m noting the EV guess and the date at which I recorded it. First in, best dressed
……..
dont know if anyone posted this
“The 3 A.M. Call ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/opinion/29krugman.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin
“It’s 3 a.m., a few months into 2009, and the phone in the White House rings. Several big hedge funds are about to fail, says the voice on the line, and there’s likely to be chaos when the market opens. Whom do you trust to take that call?”
bye bye mccain
I intend to enter, but don’t we also have to predict how many popular votes the winner will get? I have no idea how to do that other than just taking a wild guess! Bush got about 120 million last time, I think Obama will get more than that.
Doh! I mean the TOTAL vote was about 120 million last time.
Re 98,
Lets add a tie breaker (to make it fair to anyone who wants to get in and wasn’t in quickly) for those on the same correct guess.
1. Predict the state that puts him over the top based upon the CNN count/call on election night / election Wednesday day for us [ as CNN is the station I will watch for election returns ] [ other networks might put him over the top with a different state ]
2. Will Obama take Missouri?
If we need a tiebreaker, I’ll use #1. Won’t use #2 unless we need it for Q1.
- Colorado gets my vote
- He won’t take Missouri
Yes ShowsOn @ 100, we need to predict the popular votes for that contest. That is a crapshoot, needle in a haystack ….. I punted and said the same number as GB got in 2004
…..
For purposes of what I suggested here, I’m only interested in the EV total and the two tiebreaker questions …..
104 Dario,
I need an EV total for Obama as well ….. Cheers
Dario, sorry that should read 103, but you know what i meant … trying to parallel process too many things here at once, it is school holidays and I’ve got my kids at home
Forgot what I entered in that comp! I think it was 286 EVs
By ‘him’ who are you referring to? Or are we just presuming a particular candidate has it in the bag and working from there?
ltep, we are all presuming an Obama win, but if you want to go out on the limb and say a McCain win, please give
1. McCain’s winning EV total
2. What state will put the winner [in this instance, McCain] over the top?
3. Will Obama take Missouri?
juliem
obama 326
missouri yes …maybe (too early yet)
110 Gusface,
Please also give the state you believe will put Obama over the top. I’ll be watching the CNN returns on that Wednesday so will use their count to answer this question. (so if someone else’s count has a different state that puts him over the top, just so that we are all clear on that)
juliem@ 109:
I’ve used Intrade as my guide and so I’ll go Obama : 338 / McCain :200.
As for what state will get him over the line this may seem a silly question, but how are the votes counted.? Doesn’t it depend on how many people voted, the different time zones.? I wouldn’t have a clue about what state puts him over the line.
Obama 306
North Carolina
Missouri no (Dem pick ups: IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, NC). I’m guessing that the economic crisis will hit Nevada to make them swing behind Obama but will hold Florida for McCain.
Can someone explain to me why people would support Obama over McCain on economic issues?
Why on earth would any American want someone who’s never drafted a single bill in his life and been in the Senate for less than 1 term to run the American economy over McCain??
112,
The staff on CNN will call each state as soon as enough results come in that they can do that. I will post a link here for a map with time zones so that you can see which states are in which time zones. They can’t call a result until the polls have closed in that state, so for example, NY will most likely be called BEFORE the polls in Arizona are closed because NY is 2 hours ahead of Arizona. That might give you some idea. They call results though in real time so it is likely that the state that puts him over the top will be one in the Mountain time zone (Colorado for example) or Pacific time zone (California for example) UNLESS a state like Florida or Ohio (in the eastern time zone) is really close and they can’t call it for some hours after the polls have closed. SO could be anything
http://www.worldtimezone.com/time-usa12.php
Further to 116,
Arizona does NOT do DST, so when the USA changes time @ 2am the last Sunday morning in October, Arizona will revert back to Mountain time. It only goes with Pacific time when it is summer time ……. Ditto for extreme NW Indiana, they are on time with Chicago in the summer months and then when it gets cold, they go back with the rest of the state of Indiana ……
Glen, what are you doing on this thread?
……
ltep, because McCain is an outright liar. I’m trying to find the link to a video I saw earlier today where McCain is saying he is for less deregulation and on the very same day told a rally we need more govt regulation.
Sorry, but this guy has leaves Howard for dead in the lying dept.
Maybe because McCain has admitted that he doesn’t know much about economics.
Perhaps because McCain has admitted he knows nothing about economics, and a Republican President was in charge of this mess
Dario but what does Obama know about economics??
That if he writes another memoir he’ll get another 100million?
Yeah, that too
There are only two real choices in this election Glen. He doesn’t need to be a Professor of economics when the guy he is running against knows zilch.
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/26/political-pictures-abraham-lincoln-illinois-senator/
See you cannot answer the question because neither of them are economic gurus are they?
So when you trash McCain on economics you also must acknowledge that Obama is just as much if not more of an economic novice than McCain is.
What’s worse handing over the US to a 1 term Senator or someone who’s been in there for nearly 3 decades???
Obama is a novice on economics, it’s just that the media seem to want to blame the Republicans for everything even though there is a Democratic Congress in power in the Senate and HoR.
He isn’t motivated by a philosophy that says regulation is bad, UNTIL you need the government to step in and pay $700 billion to bail out the private sector. He understands that SOME regulation is necessary to make capitalism work properly.
During the debate last Saturday (our time) McCain essentially still was using Reagan talking points ‘Government is the problem’, well hello, Wall Street had just gone to the GOVERNMENT to try to fix its problems! So how can Government be the problem ALL of the time?
It just made McCain sound like a hypocrite – government IS the problem, but not when it has to hand over $700 billion to wall street. That just doesn’t make sense.
polyquats and look what happened the South seceeded after his election!
You don’t need to be an economic guru to be elected President – Look at Bush and Reagan for example.
Hang on a second, I thought McCain was the ANTI Washington / outside / Maverick candidate! I guess that was just spin…
Oh no! Not again THE MEDIA are controlling our minds again! I think it is so funny that right wingers revert to this MARXIST media theory to try to back up their arguments!
The problem Glen is that THE AMERICAN PUBLIC seem to be blaming the economic crisis primarily on George Bush, Wall Street (which is seen as a Republican institution), and REPUBLICANS in congress. Whether it makes sense or not, McCain is getting swept away in this anti-Republican sentiment.
HAHHAHAHAH! So are you proposing that if Obama wins the U.S. will have another civil war?
Utter BS Glen. The Republicans have had control of Congress for 12 of the last 14 years, and the Whitehouse for the last 8. That’s where the damage was done… and the American voters see it that way, whether you like it or not.
Adam has sent Glen in to take charge for awhile …… just let Glen go through to the keeper
Of course not that would be stupid i merely posit that electing inexperienced people into a demanding job can cause more harm than good.
Bull Butter Dario the Democrats have controlled it for 2 years and did nothing to warn the american people about this crisis or do anything to stop it, and Pelosi couldnt even get 10 of the 93 democrats who voted against it to switch HA!
Both sides are to blame here!
I don’t think and I hope anybody expects the President to make economic decisions based on their own abilities – otherwise McCain has already disqualified himself with the admission he doesn’t do economics. And if you seen him in an interview being questioned on economic issues in the past you would concur with his self assessment.
During this campaign McCain has been highly erratic when talking on economic issues but I suspect that is not because of gross stupidity but because he was looking for political wedges.
The article posted by Gusface that talked about this issue highlights the problem quite well – look at the team of economic advisers each side has chosen then it will become patently obvious that McCain’s side of the street is a dangerous one.
Obama’s performance so far must be the one that instills the greater confidence – no panic, no eratic behaviour, cooly addressing the fundamental issues and deferring to the experts to provide possible solutions before jumping emotionally on one idea.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/opinion/29krugman.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin
Why don’t you just cut and paste Ron’s posts!
The point is not who is ACTUALLY to blame, it is who the American public THINKS is to blame, and if you believe the polls, that is Bush, Wall Street, and Republicans roughly in that order.
That is a net negative for McCain, because 2 weeks ago he said the economy was fundamentally strong, and a month before that his economics adviser was calling Americans whiners, and saying that the economy was not headed for a recession.
In the debate he shot himself in the foot by repeating the Republican mantra that Government IS the problem, even though as the debate was on THE GOVERNMENT was trying to figure out a way to fix it.
Get real, the problem is 2/3 of Republicans voted against it, compared to 2/5 of Democrats! Which is why they are being blamed for both causing and refusing the fix the mess.
Glen see McCain the liar in action…! HAHAHAHA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOvJ6GUjUJ0
Are you a Sarah Palin fan?
Glen, clearly you know zero about the US. Bush is President and has veto over anything the Dems in Congress can pass.
This was Bush’s bill and the Republicans couldn’t even get 10 of the 133 Republicans who opposed it to switch HA!
Go back to the other thread Glen, you are out of your depth here.
If Obama wins, and employs the same economic advisers Clinton had then the problem will be fixed. Clinton went from a huge deficit to a surplus by raising taxes on the wealthy, and cutting the defence budget by a few percent. Whoever wins will have to do the same, a Democratic President with a Democratic congress has a better chance of doing that sooner.
Why exactly are people trying to shut out dissenting voices?
OMG another shocker
…… [ Asked what newspapers and magazines she reads, Palin - a journalism major in college - could not name one publication.
"I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media," she said at first. Couric responded, "What, specifically?"
"Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years."
"Can you name a few?"
"I have a vast variety of source where we get our news," Palin said. "Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, 'wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?' Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html ]
Shut up ltep
Oh cmon just because he’s a good speaker doesnt mean he’ll do a good job on economics what rubbish!
Remember folks let it go through to the keeper, you don’t have to swing at Glen’s airballs ………
ShowsOn, I’ve told you once before not to do this. The message it imparts is: “I am laughing very loudly right into your face”. If you did this in real life, you’d get beaten up.
ltep, with the exception of maybe one or two posters who get to vote in the US election, the debates here are basically meaningless to the outcome. But it doesn’t mean that people can’t have an opinion, and disagree with other posters.
When the Americans go around saying that they are electing the “leader of the free world” as their president, ( no offence meant juliem ) and I don’t get a vote, I’m certainly going to exercise my free speech and debate who I want to see as President.
And if people want to elect idiots like McCain and Palin, then as citizens of the free world we have the right to argue against it.
Well at the very least the U.S. would have a President who is a good speaker, which is more than they’ve got now.
Glen, explain to me how your Marxist theory of the media results in brainwashing and conformity.
William, the bold laughing was me. I apologise wholeheartedly. Won’t happen again.
Sondeo, ShowsOn did it too in 130 – and in his case he was directing it at another commenter, whereas you could argue you’re directing it at McCain, which is a different matter.
Sondeo,
I don’t take offense. I’ve considered myself emotionally and in every way an Aussie since I married my husband in 1996. I probably whinge about the Americans as much as any of you do since I don’t look at myself from that set of rose coloured glasses any more. While I am an American by birth so therefore get the right to vote in the election, that is my only real connection at any level to the US. I’ve still got relatives there but if we want to see each other, then they come here. No worries
. Because I grew up there though, that gives me a bit more knowledge than those of you who are Aussie by birth. Did you have an answer for 1. which state will give Obama the votes he needs to win on Election night and 2. will he win Missouri?
I don’t understand how American governments work. How come parties don’t vote as whole following a party platform? ie if the party is in favour of the bail out then all follow.
This is obviously not how it works in the states.
It is glaringly obvious to me that their were plenty of spare votes on both sides to put the bail out package over the line. However there is the general view and it is reinforced by the defensiveness of the Republicans that the failure is their fault.
I mean why did they (Republicans) make an issue of 12 changing sides because of Pelosi’s comments if they didn’t accept that it was their fault the bail out didn’t go through? You think they would have pointed immediately to the number of Democrats who voted in the negative.
All very confusing.
We all knowthat the US presidential system is not democratic and contrary to popular opinion the president of the US is not directly elected. The US college system has a number of serious inbuilt flaws in the system. Whilst each of the states has some form of resemblance of proportionality between each of the states the electoral system used”First past the post” does not reflect the popular vote. The highest polling party secures 100% of the state delegates that intrum will elect the president That party can win the state representation by as little as 34% -40%of the vote.
Third party candidates, such as Ralph Nader run the risk of being a spoiler. Taking votes away from a party that otherwise would be won by the democrats or the republican party.
I am not sure where I read it but there was also a suggestion that the electoral college could find itself in a tied situation with each of the two main parties holding the same number of votes. It all boils down to the swinging seats, as with Australia’s lower house electorates. But the problem is magnified in that the winning candidate can be elected on a minority of votes. Coulod we see a repeat of the 2000 US Presidential elections in 2008?
Given that only 40% of the US population participate in presidential elections the US president could be determined by 16% of US citizens. This is not0t what I call a democratic state.
TP: a) Because the government doesn’t stand and fall on party discipline in the legislature; b) Because the legislators don’t depend on the party machine for their preselection.
It’s usually over 60% of the voting age population that vote
juliem @ 150: I gave a figure for the EV’s but not for what state takes him over the line.
As I’m only guessing, and the sheep station is not on the line, I’d say that he won’t win Missouri, and the state that takes him over the line will be Colorado
Given that the Presidential election will be decided on a handful of swing states and that the highest polling candidates wins 100% of the delegates to what extent can we rely on a poll of all voters? Very little I would say. You really need to look at each of the swinging states and then determine the out come based on the breakdown of the poll. In more or less the way they did the break down of the pre-selection (primary) ballot for the democrates.
After Palin's dramatic dive in the polls over these last few weeks, McCain staffers are lamenting their decision to not proceed with their first VP choice, Big Bird.
"Big Bird was our number one pick for quite some time," a McCain advisor admitted yesterday, while shaking his head in regret. ]
http://www.236.com/blog/w/colin_nissan/mccain_camp_regrets_not_going_9203.php
156, thanks, Sondeo
Dario when I looked at the 2000 Vote only 40% of the population votes. Maybe 60% is the number that have enrolled to vote. Unlike in Australia voting is not compulsory in the US. Also with First past the post many candidates are elected with less then 50% of the vote. At a cost of billions of dollars to mount a campaign one has to wonder of the US presidential system is worth keeping. Give me a Parliamentary system any day.
160, I am with you all the way. Parliamentary system is a good one and even moreso, mandatory voting ….. But that having been said, I shudder to think how much uglier the WH could get than GB if the US had mandatory voting. Can you imagine the pain and damage of millions and millions of donkey votes? It is a shocker given the mentality of some of the people in parts of the USA [not highly educated, very easily led by a shifty Republican operating machine, etc.]. Could be really really bad and make GB look like a picnic. No, now that I’ve had a taste of compulsory voting in Australia, I think that the world should be glad that the US does NOT have it
European Presidential system have a constitutional requirement that 50% of those entitled vote MUST vote and the winning candidate MUST also receive 50% or more votes. i9f lessthen 50% ofvopters particpate then the elction fails. If no candidate has 50% or more there is a run-off electionn between the two highest polling candidates. (Two round voting system). A total waste of money of course when a preferential ‘Instant Run-off” ballot can produce the same outcome with one round of voting at half the cost of the two round system. As to the US College system that is a joke. Made worst by the fact that less then 51% of voters can elect 100% of the delegates.
Or what about a hybrid system where we vote for the head of government by popular election, and then they pick their ministers from either in or outside of the legislature.
If you have proportional representation then it would be easy for people in the legislature to resign and become ministers without having to hold by-elections (you just pick the next person on the party ticket to fill the vacancy)
Of course this means the head of government could pick people from business, unions, academy etc who DON’T come from the legislature.
I think the system we have where the legislature and executive are combined is silly. It means you get hack politicians who just vote the party line instead of thinking about issues for themselves. Whereas hack politicians in the U.S. only last for a short period if they can’t explain why they PERSONALLY accomplished during their term.
161… and to think they rule the world. I am begining to hope that god does exist and that s/he will intervene to stop those that use his name under false intentions. It is scared to think what the outcome might be. If you want to know more about the US electorate just google Chaser Why Americans are so stupid on your tube.
The turnout was 51% in 2000, and 57% in 2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election
I think it is best when members of the cabinet are appointed from the parliamentary representations. Westminster style.
Why so? I think you could find better people if everyone in the whole country is a potential minister.
dario 51 % of what? Entitled to enroll or enrolled. What was the state breakdown/lowest wining vote %… How often does the end result not reflect the popular vote. Its a hit and miss system
Voting Age Population, i.e. Entitled to enroll
About 3 times in over 50 elections.
But anyway, compulsory voting (or really, compulsory attendance) is absurd. The State shouldn’t be able to force people to go and vote if they don’t want to. Again, I think the U.S. system is better. It would be even better if they had a national electoral commission that organised voting and redistributions!
Represntative mandate. and more importantly why should a minster have to resign his representaive mandate to full their ministerial role. WestMinster is one of the best things the British gave Australia/Candida/New Zealand/India
Realistically we don’t have compulsary voting as such, only compulsary attendance on polling day. You can rock up to a polling booth, get your name marked off and hand your blank voting slips to an official to be put in the ballot box.
shows on: Do You support the wearing of seat belts? A voter can always opt to cast an infomal vote. The reason behind the compuslory voting was to ensuire that voters were not intimidated to not vote as was the case in Florida USA. It is an obligation in the same way we are forced/obliged to pay taxes.
Why is this an issue? If someone decides not to go and vote than they have given up their right to be represented. If they go and vote, then they are passing on that to their the person they want to represent them.
To take on a different representative role, that of executive government
We don’t have a full Westminster system, because we have a Senate. Our system is a hybrid of the U.K. and U.S. systems, that inherently promotes some hack politicians – to make up the numbers – at the expensive of more talented politicians.
It also means we have a compulsory preferential system to ensure stable government which makes the House less representative of the nation as a whole (no Greens in the current parliament), when the lower house would be more representative if it was elected by proportional representation, but you could only do that and ensure stable government if you removed the executive from the legislature.
I think cricket was a more important thing that the British gave us.
This isn’t a good analogy because voting has nothing to do with personal safety.
I pointed this out myself – we have compulsory ATTENDANCE – but people think it means compulsory VOTING. My point was that the State shouldn’t be able to compel anyone to vote if that person doesn’t want to. The reason wearing a seat belt is law is because it aids road safety, but what does compulsory voting aid? My guess is it saves them money because they don’t have to spend money simply motivating people to vote. But that is for the benefit of political parties, which they should have to do themselves.
So instead they are intimated by teh State to vote? Why should voting be an issue based around state intimidation?
We pay taxes because that is the cot of building a fair society. But how can you say the same of forcing people to go and vote? What benefit does this have that letting people choose doesn’t?
One down side of compulsory attendance is that it means elections are often decided by people that don’t really care much about who they vote for, and by people who don’t pay much attention to the issues. It seems to me that that is a very heavy burden on all the people who DO pay attention and who are motivated to vote.
A thought from out of left field regarding the election process here in Australia and I realise that this particular site is probably not the correct one to bring it up as we are talking about the US Pesidential elections. Any thoughts on doing away with the pre-selection process for each party and allowing us the people select the person we want to represent the party at a general election. Let any number of people (or perhaps restrict it to say four for each party) stand for election. Still have compulsory and preferential voting. Using this, candidates like say Christopher Pyne or Belinda Neal who are not exactly loved by their electorate would find it very hard to get themselves elected. One of the drawbacks is that it would probably take a fortnight or so before the result of an election was known particulary in the case of a close election. At least this way we get to say who we want to represent us and not the person chosen by the factions of the parties.
Spot on.
Glen – remember our discussions last year about perceptions equaling reality in politics?
This is another clear example of a situation where (in factual terms) both sides are to blame for the failure of the bailout/rescue bill to pass. However, the perception has already formed in the US (see the ABC poll that has been previously referred to) that it was the Republicans to blame for its failure to pass.
The clear consequence of this (and it is already happening) is that the Republicans’ economic credibility (and this includes McCain) will continue to fall, while the Democrats are increasingly being seen as the party of economic responsibility (or Wall St, depending on which commentator you prefer). The upshot of this is that the longer the economy dominates the headlines, the worse McCain fares against Obama…
P.S. Good to see you back on the US thread
Colorado won’t take Obama over the line. If it did, that would mean he would have to end up with over 350 electoral votes, since he’s going to get 77 EVs out of Hawaii, Washington, Oregon and California simultaneously when those states close polling 4 hours after first results start coming through and 2 hours after Colorado closes. Those last four states will take him over the threshold at the same time, in particular California.
For the record, my prediction is that Obama will win with 311 EVs to 238, will win Ohio and Virginia, but lose Missouri, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina. Probaby win by 4 points, 50-46, with Barr and Nader grabbing the other 4%.
Vanishing voters – voter purges
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4490786n
Al,
Thanks for that
…. have it written down here. For the record, Hawaii is 2 hours behind California, Alaska is one hour behind California. So those 2 states stretch the time zones to 4 (CONUS {Continental United States}) + 1 (Alaska) + 1 (Hawaii).
Do you have a guess as to which state will put Obama on top? So far, I’ve had Colorado and North Carolina as the guesses.
TP: @ 179. Thats really scary.
Funny that McCain released two ads one attacking Obama for the passage of bail out and another for the failure of passage of the bail out.
FINNS
“Amigo Ronnie, this new mob of Obamabots sounds and starting to behave exactly like the other mob that has been banished to the G island. Except the older mob had more personality and fun to tangle”
A distinction Amigo between “worser” and “even worser” Yes Obamarotic elitist & messiahic in Obama traits identical although Gilligans trashed tuth & fact whereas this has now been extended to actualy post mistruth as truth
Although Bailout Bill blame on this site mostly all Republicans ar to blame therefore is old style messiahic ignorance of actual HoR votes cast
Mathematics make there ALL Republican blame childish at best By example IF another 11 Republicans had voted YES , then Bill loses by a single one vote….with 216 Cngressmen saying YES and 217 Congressmen saying NO….and of th 217 NO’s there ar 95 Democrats and 122 Republicans Now which of those 217 ar th naughty one whose solitary vote IN FACT then would hav made a YES vote…objective naswer is any of those 217 …meaning either Party …meaning either Party is to blame
‘Spin’ number one here : th obamabots having easily lost there flawed argument that Republics were only to blame on reality maths didn’t admit that , but instead changed th “narrative” , Obamabots narrative then changed to ..oh its what polls say who is to blame , but does mean we can not expose th fact th polls ar a product of both flawed perception & misinformation via Media etc and that in fact both Partys REELY ar to blame , of course not but “narrative” is self denial Obama/Democrats share blame (notice a minescule % of Obama supporters here actualy do see its joint responsibility
Spin number two here : its was “Paulsons” plan and it was flawed Nonsense , it was a 3 page Plan stating obvious problem of Bailout needed AND an opening gambit of authority…no details , no ioversite, no criteria , no ‘parachute severage pay protections , no taxpayer issues , no house price stabilisation matters etc etc IT COULD NOT BE , it was Democrat controlled Congress responsibilty to enact th Legisaltion with these matters WITH compromise/negotiations with minority Republicans if Democrats chose to or they could av paased there own Democrat only Bill Obviously both politics & commonsense for Nations good dictated th former Therefore Paulsons not to blame…just th 433 Republicans & Democrats in Hor then Democrat controlled Senate were and ar responsible
Spin number three : cause of financial crisis is all Republicans Nonsense constitutionally th HoR & Senate COULD hav enacted there own Legisaltion at ANY time in last 8 years for example…on better ‘regulation’ , standards , reporting auditing , disclosure & financial products like sub prime True th POTUS has some responsibility & obviously has an influence & must share some blame (& thats dim wit Bush a Republican) but constitutionally Congress holds th purse strings & legislation powers to enact AND DID NOT DO SO for at least last 8 years when bubble gum started
Who were in control of HoR & Senate , well Democrats (last 2 years WHEN problems were more clearly arising & warning alerts were given) vs Republicans (preceding 6 years , so Republcians had 75% of time of last 8 years BUT that is diminished objectively by less warnings/alerts of sub prime etc then
How do you weiht that ? Well its not 75% Republican to 25% Democrat…its either 60/40 to 50/50 but not under 50/50 and either way it supports my view USA 433 HoR & 100 Senate (total 533) of Republcians & Democrats ar either eqaully rsponsible for Wall Street ruins or if not 50/50 close enough that to point blame one way is pedantic
My shared responsibilty ‘blame’ assessment is non ‘oz’ centric but US-centric and my shared asesment is also supported by & consistent by th nature of US politcs th Congress …pork barrelling by all , Lobbyists by all , “networking” by all , “interest groups” by all vs unlike ‘oz’ there politcan do not get electd just because they hav a Labor or Liberal bdge on , above ar often just as powerful & often more so
We’ve got 7 people so far giving their predictions for the EV vote in the election. If anyone else wants in on this, just post your guesses and I’ll add them into my spreadsheet. Ditto anyone who wants to change guesses. I’ll keep collecting them and will accept changes up until 10pm Tuesday November 4th. No official prizes or anything other than bragging rights. Remember tie breaker questions – 1. State that puts Obama over the top (270) based upon CNN’s Election Returns (program I will watch) and 2. Will Obama win Missouri?
I’ve got a map in which I can zero out each state for EV votes and then add them in one at a time. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory Zero out all of the states and then add them back in one at a time. If you give Obama the following from east to west across the first two time zones (eastern and central) – Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Mass., Rhode Island, Conn., New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland, D.C, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Missouri that gives Obama 268. The next lot of states to close will be those in the mountain time zone. Out of the Mountain time zone, the only ones he is expected to get will be Colorado and New Mexico I believe. Thus, the guesses of Colorado aren’t that bad
….. unless you think, as does one of us, that North Carolina will come in later than expected because of a close count 
. If you add the expected ones on the West coast of California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii and toss in Nevada for good measure, that is 364 with Colorado or New Mexico probably putting him over the top.
Juliem,
Check out polling closing times at the Green Papers for 4 November. Not everything closes at the same local time. For example, Colorado closes at 7 MST, while New York closes at 9 EST, so they’ll both close at the same time.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=c
California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii all close at the same time (0400 UTC, or 11pm Eastern in America). I reckon all four of those will be called as soon as voting finishes based on exit polling, and their simultaneous calling will take Obama over the top. Alaska’s 3 EVs, which closes an hour later, won’t matter. By that stage, the election will be over, although if McCain does dump Palin they may fall into Obama’s column because of a favourite daughter backlash.
The closing time of a poll doesn’t mean so much if the vote is close in a state. For example, California could be ‘called’ for Obama after less 20% of the vote is counted, while Colorado could go down to the wire and be called much, much later.
Thanks, Al, you are one up on me
…. thats what happens when I assume …. thanks 
I know, Dario, well and truely understand that. That was why I asked people for their best guess
…….. (and that is all it is is a guess, this is just something fun)
Al @ 186,
Thanks so VERY much for that cool link, I’ve bookmarked it
……
Of course Swing Lowe, i agree and there is nothing the Republicans can do about the perception of them failing the economy. Still i think they arent the only people to blame, the Democrats must also take some of the blame too. They’re all at fault here.
By the way, is anybody taking a look at the Congressional, Senate and Governorship elections in 2008??? Any chance of the Democrats gaining the Senate by a comfortable margin??? Or will the Republicans hold tough?
There is more than just the Presidential poll to discuss here folks
I take it you mean getting a veto-busting majority, as they already hold the senate…
Of course Republicans aren’t just to blame, but the person who is going to get more blame on election day will be John McCain.
He couldn’t even name a time that he tightened a regulation! Which helps Obama build the argument that he is simply a deregulator, irrespective of the benefits of the regulation. McCain’s argument is still “Government is the problem”, even though we are in a period when we need the government to fix a critical problem. McCain’s argument just doesn’t fit with the time.
Democrats are likely to get about 56 or 57 in the Senate with an outside chance of 60. If they get 60 then they can block filibusters, which would mean the U.S. would get a universal health care plan of some description.
Intriguing – Eastern Indiana and Kentucky are the first “states” to close (at 1800 EST)
Unfortunately, no calls will be made until after the voters in the western parts of those states finish voting at 1900 EST, in order to avoid a Florida 2000-mess again.
From the order, the first states to get called will almost certainly be Vermont (D), South Carolina (R), Kentucky (R) and (probably) Georgia (R), all of which close at 1900 EST. The others (VA, FL and IN) are likely to be toss-ups…
I take it conservative posters here “worried” about Obamas single term in the Senate compared to McCain must prefer Rudd to Turnbull, given Turnbull’s lack of experience?? On the McCain experience analogy, I suppose they would like Wilson Tuckey as leader of the Opposition? He’s a straight shooter….
Dario no they dont they rely on Liberman
Isn’t there system completely nuts in this way! They actually run all these different state elections that add up to a federal election, rather than actually running a federal election from a federal agency that sets voting standards (i.e. ONE type of ballot for the entire country).
Exactly Dario. For the “safe” states though, most of the networks will call based on exit polling. If they are a little bit unsure of their exit polling, they will wait till a few percent are counted, and if it is showing the same trends as their exit polling, then they will call it. For this very reason, expect McCain to open up an early lead (40-60 EVs) as most of the early “safe” states are Republican.
Glen… I reckon Dems will control the Senate, but not reach a filibuster proof majority. Probably about 55-56. At least they can then tell Lieberman to stick it. Obama’s ground-game strategy may reap bigger dividends than that for the Dems though, creating a down-ticket effect by getting people who don’t normally vote to the booths.
House-wise, the Dems will still have a comfortable margin.
Are you sure? I thought the Democrats currently have 51 Senators if you include Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, who are actually both independents.
Democrats are currently on 51 Senate seats (including Liebermann and Sanders). Gains are expected in VA, NM, CO and NH (although NH has tightened recently). Dems are also polling well in AK and NC. There are toss-up races in MN and OR, whilst Republicans are favoured but still vulnerable in KY, MS (Wicker) and (if you believe the poll below) GA.
No Democrat incumbent is in a toss-up race, although both the LA and NJ races aren’t locks yet.
Georgia Senate poll:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b1b8098c-b5fc-4f44-8be3-0d54f3e03476
Newish Presidential polls out by Survey USA:
Ohio: McCain +1 (49-48)
Indiana: McCain +3 (48-45)
New Jersey: Obama +10 (52-42)
Yes. Glen, is correct that they have to rely on Lieberman to vote on things (as they do on all the Dem senators… it isn’t like Australia where votes are all along party lines) but Lieberman and Sanders caucus with the Dems giving them ‘control’
What are the odds on a hung EV… 50/50? One site I read claimed that that was a real possibility. To what extent does the national poll reflect then crucial key swing states?
This seems to be the most optimistic senate estimation – 58:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Sep30-s.html
Pollster.com says 54, fivethirtyeight.com says, 56.
Remember, it’s the Vice President of the U.S. who is the President of the Senate. He is the person that goes through and counts all the electoral college votes.
I like the idea of seeing Dick Cheney going through the lengthy procedure of certifying an Obama presidential win.
So basically they needed those two independents so that all the Committee chairs are Democrats? The crazy thing is Sanders is so left wing, he would be like Bob Brown, yet he was elected by a state that usually only elects Republican senators!
I love the fact their politicians don’t vote the party line! I wish we had that here.
I think all eyes should be on Ohio, if Obama wins it then McCain is a goner.
No Republican has won without it, if I were Obama id be campaigning there alot.
ShowsOn @ 197: a federal electoral authority wouldn’t solve the problem of polls on the west coast closing later than the east. Australian election outcomes are often known before the polls close in WA, at least when daylight saving made the time difference three hours rather than two.
I’d say the chance of that is pretty slim now. But on the previous thread we discussed the fact that if the E.C. vote is tied, Obama would still probably be elected thanks to a majority of state delegations in the House.
Obviously the polls are much closer in the swing states, but Obama now has leads in all the Kerry states, plus Indiana, New Mexico, and Colorado. He is also tied in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Indiana, which are all crucial for a McCain win. On top of those, he is very close in Missouri and North Carolina. Not even Clinton won North Carolina, so if Obama is close there, then he must be doing very well.
Correct
Looking at the senate map (thanks for that) it shows that there is3-4 states that are line ball. How often does the Senate distribution vary from the Presidential college count? Is the US Senate a good guide for the outcome of a presidential vote when looking at the swing sate?
The site I read gave asenario that if the vote was tied and remained tied Nacy would become caretaker President. Is that true?
SwingLowe, I’ve not examined the Senate seats but it looks as if you have
….. what is Dole up against in NC? I thought I read about a week or two ago that her seat was also in danger of falling to the Democrats ……
Ohio still reminds me of Kent State.
I meant relative to the local time. There is a huge variation depending on which state you are voting in. Some states the polls close at 6 PM local time (Indiana, Hawaii, Kentucky) while others close as late as 9 PM (New York, Rhode Island, North Dakota) for their local time, and then there are all sorts of times between those extremes.
I just thought that uniformity would limit confusion, even though the various time zones mean people are actually voting at different times. I guess in New York it NEEDS to close late because millions of people live there.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=c
I don’t think so because U.S. politicians basically campaign first as themselves, and second as their party. Some people have speculated that a popular Democrat who is running for the Senate for the first time is one reason why Obama is leading in Colorado. So there are certain “coat tail” effects that may work either way.
But just because the Democrats are going to win some Senate seats in the deep south won’t mean Obama will win there.
I don’t think so. The Senate would vote on who becomes V.P., Biden would win and become acting President. Then the House keeps voting until inauguration day until they come up with a winner. If they can’t Biden becomes President.
(I am assuming the Democrats keep their majority)
Ruawake,
For Michigan folks, all Ohio is good for is a place that you have to drive through to get to Florida
……..
On the issue of closing time for polling booths, remember that election day is a normal working day. That would produce many issues which we don’t experience in Australia where they are all on Saturdays. Even then, there is always a rush before 6 pm close.
Juliem,
Dole’s up against it in North Carolina. While she had strong polling figures earlier this year, the latest non-party aligned polls all show Democrat Kay Hagan in the lead. The Dems are currently pounding her on spending hardly any time in North Carolina the past few years.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nc/08-nc-sen-ge-dvh.php
Is Hillary up for election?
No she was re-elected easily in 2006.
thats right she was elected in 2000
Wow one bit of positive Iraq news actually being reported for once!
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24431454-5005961,00.html
Deaths fall in Iraq
“THE number of civilians killed in Iraq last month more than halved to 359 compared to a year ago, Iraqi Government figures showed, and the number of US troops killed in action also fell dramatically.
US combat deaths fell to eight in September, down from 12 last month and vastly reduced from 43 in September last year, statistics from independent website http://www.icasualites.org showed.
Violence in Iraq has fallen to around four-year lows in recent months, but militants have still been capable of large-scale attacks.”
Good news for McCain!
To be frank I think the economy is pretty much going to be the only issue for this election
“Only” 359 deaths in a month, good news? What a perverse world we live in.
What effect if any will radar Nader have as a third candidate. I recall the Ross p. challenge. At least Ross was included in the debate.
What Is the deal if Obama suffers a pre poll Kennedy strike from Grassy Knoll as some extremists has suggested? Is the election postponed or does the College decide?
It seems tiny, he is only on 2 or 3% of the national vote.
Perot was included int he debates because his polling was very strong, in the high teens from memory.
The Democratic Party (the national comittee) has a procedure for selecting a new candidate. They can just do a vote from all Congressional Democrats, or they can call for a new convention. So all of the same delegates reconvene to decide.
If it is REALLY close to election day, the Congress can vote to delay the election.
Palin cant name a single newspaper she reads
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html
RCP is currently projecting 7 gains for the Dems in the Senate (up to 58):
VA NH NM CO AK OR NC
I think we should be careful with using the term “blame” regarding the failed bailout. Some of the Repugs are claiming “credit” for the failure. Tomorrow, Congress will probably pass another version with a few amendments. Will the Democrats then be given “credit” for it passing?
and dont u love how the conservatives like Glen trumpet the no of deaths as a great thing when they have spent the last 5 years disputing the death count
Dio – I’m with you.
The only “Blame” that needs to be thrown ought to land right at the grubby little feet of that hack Alan Greenspan.
Funny isnt it – I’ve been saying for years that Greenspan is…
a)useless
and
b)his legacy will all end very badly
…(as have plenty of others mind you), but until very recently, to say such a thing was to be treated as a heretic as those f***tards of the Dow 36000 school of piffle held court. Yet now – well, it’s the new black… Daaaahrling.
The mind boggles sometimes at how quickly a group of lickspittles can change their spots.
I couldn’t believe this clip when I first saw it. McCain says talking about Congress and he actually says “If I were a dictator, which I always aspire to be….”
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=videonetwork&maven_playerId=immersiveplayer&maven_referralPlaylistId=b959b1ca832e44b7543c0c1d3b9b6ef23903c7fc&maven_referralObject=873470075
I got the original link from here…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/1/53121/1281/967/616354
Not as bad as Bush saying “This would be an easier job if it was a dictatorship; assuming I was the dictator.”
I have to admit that I hadn’t heard that about Bush before.
For these guys to be thinking it is scary stuff ShowsOn.
New Quinnpac poll with some very skewed numbers…
FL: Obama +8
OH: Obama +8
PA: Obama +15
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081001/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_battlegrounds;_ylt=AuuucKeqKT7bzY645kVNcVOyFz4D
These guys seem to have a pretty strong opinion about who’s to blame.
http://www.dependablerenegade.com/dependable_renegade/2008/09/yeah-that-prett.html
Possum
People who deny observable reality are often not guilty of “wishful thinking”. It’s often a hard-wired subconscious act. Kurt Vonnegut likens magical thinking to a cuckoo clock from Hell. The machinery works perfectly in turning the wheel and keeping time but there are teeth missing, which are simple, obvious truths accessible even to a ten year old. When the chain works on a gear with a group of teeth missing, the clock skips ahead for a few minutes, then keeps perfect time until more missing teeth are reached.
Some people are born missing groups of gear teeth, some have them willfully filed off by others or themselves.
Surely not!
Quinnipiac is one of the highly rated polls but something has to be wrong with those, unless they’ve changed their weightings. I’m gonna ignore them until we get some different polls in those states.
There’s a new Intrade market on whether or not Obama’s Presidential Intrade market will increase following the V.P. debate. It is currently on 65%. His presidential market is 64.9, which means it is up 7.4% in the last 2 days.
yes indeed. Both POTUS candidates are dud. So are the VP candidates. And the best candidate is not on the ticket. Pity the Americans. Pity the World.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/its-not-much-of-a-choice-for-americans-come-november-4-20080930-4r5x.html?page=-1
It looks overcooked from one perspective.
From another – the polls are simply catching up to where the State Intrade market has expected them to end up for, in some cases, months.
Yup. All 3 had MOE’s of 3.4%. Their previous poll had FL O +6, OH O +7, PA O +6.
They did another poll on Sep. 11:
FL: Obama -7
OH: Obama +5
PA: Obama +3
That Florida result can’t be right. I think it underestimated Obama’s vote 20 days ago, and has overestimated it now. For the others, the Sep 11 results seem to be more plausible than Today’s results.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
They did another poll just before the debate though which had
FL: Obama +6
OH: Obama +7
PA: Obama +6
I don’t think they face a dilemma at all, if they don’t like the options, they can stay home. We should have the same option here.
Does it make sense for state polls to lag behind national polls? Or should state polls pre-empt a swing about to start in national polls?
The Flordia figure is still suspect -7 to +6 in such a short time?
More likely there was a shift, but it was smaller (i.e. the true state of affairs was never -7)
Yeah, I dont buy the numbers either… probably a weighting change
Dario, don’t comment unless you have something worth saying. “Snore” self-evidently doesn’t cut it.
Betting on which way the betting will go…
Well at least we know what the Wall Street guys are doing now they’ve lost their jobs on the derivatives market.
If you have a look at Quinnipiac’s release, they’ve got pre- and post-debate figures, with around 2000 total for each state. They do seem out of whack though, and all in one direction.
Also, anyone notice the GWU Battleground poll for the last two days? After being the only poller to show a McCain lead for the last week, they stopped weighting on party ID and flipped to show Obama +2 for the past two days.
It happens both ways Showson, depending on political events of the day and where they impact. There’s a lot of demographic variation in the US States, so different events will play out in different ways.
If some party has momentum, often half the country will move first (so the national polls will move first), followed by States that were previously more reluctant about a candidate.
But similarly, sometimes clusters of States will move first (because some specific issue, or groups of issues resonated well) before the rest of the country follows suit.
William, would not the continually repeated comment of the ‘best person not being in the race’ also qualify as not worth saying?
No. It might not be the greatest comment in the world, but it does achieve something more than childish abuse of another commenter.
Grog goes:
That’s classy!
Fairy nuff
Anyone think the Veep debate will have any impact on polls? Surely it can’t be a positive for Obama – the expectations are so low for Palin that unless she let’s drop a “f*cked if I know” she’ll come out looking good. (well not good, but not as bad as people thought)
Al @ 250
Battleground has been having some weighting by age problems that they might have fixed up when 538 skewered them:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html
I read an article that argued that Battleground weren’t weighting by age correctly. Basically they were assuming almost double 60+ age voters than what turned out in 2004. The young voters is more accurate, but I think it is reasonable to predict that Obama will turn out more young and first time voters than in 2004. Here is the blog post:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html
Yeah, I read the same article. I wondered if they may have hidden some changes to age weighting in their data too, or were deciding to get rid of party ID weighting to make them blend in with the crowd a bit more.
William, i cant help it if some people just dont get the context where the comment was made.
Incorrect spelling –> Sin bin, 5 minutes.
This is quickly turning into like the un-scrutinisable debate. How can the ‘experts’ give an opinion on it when it doesn’t matter what Palin says, just how she says it that counts? If she says something stupid, a lot of people are going to go out of there way to say that just shows how “down to earth” she is. Meanwhile, if Biden makes any substantial policy points, it will be interpreted as how ‘Washington’ and out of touch he has become from all those years in the Senate.
If Biden wins, he loses, if he loses, he loses. This article suggests that Biden should just refer to JOHN McCAIN’s policies, and ask Palin to defend policies that she probably still hasn’t even read. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-abrams/sarah-palin-may-emreally_b_130688.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122280937053991807.html
more and more homeless voters everyday in the usa
How dare you! Retract that statement!
Not really. The only way would be if Palin wipes the floor with Biden. I reckon the only people who still support Palin would keep on doing so no matter how much of a goose she made of herself.
Not sure why you’re telling me that, Finns.
I thought most of them weight by party ID if they are measuring LIKELY voters?
262, agreed, this is sad and it will cause a h*** of a mess on Election Day too as people need to be resident in some address that can be reported, i.e you can’t (as is the case here I think) register with a P.O Box, it has to be a physical place. And I don’t know what the rules are on polling day there [there are 50 different sets of rules] but I do know that if someone’s vote is challenged and they can’t prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they reside at the address for which they are registered, then their vote won’t be legally admissable ………
261 ShowOn – it’s a good article.
But in the end will the Veep debate matter? Are both sides worrying too much about it?
Afterall most people will be tuning in in the hopes of seeing a train wreck; even if she avoids that, she’s going to have to be really good to get people to swap votes (or decide to vote)
William, i have to tell somebody. cant tell my wife, she wouldn’t understand. she already thinks i am wasting my time on PB. she thinks i should be doing something more useful like mowing the lawn.
What Finns – at 10 O’clock at night?
Hard taskmaster!
Oh I think so, it is millions of dollars of free air time to get out your message. 60 million watched the debate last week, even if only 10% were genuinely undecided voters, that’s enough votes to swing the election.
I think it works well for the Democrats because I think Biden will just get across an image of being assured and competent (if a little boring) which will make people more comfortable voting for Obama.
Whereas Palin has a lot to prove. I don’t think she can really help McCain, but she could do a lot of damage.
Here’s another similar “what should Joe do?” article. It’s cool because it’s written as a letter directly to Biden:
http://www.slate.com/id/2199363/
Poss, at 10pm, she asks me to chase away the possums that come to our back porch and leave the poos everywhere. some relatives of yours. I need to leave few tricks from sarah palin as a possum shooter.
As they say Finns – Can’t choose the relatives
Although being Palinated in probably a wee bit extreme.
Wonder how many watched the SNL clip of Tina Fey doing Palin being interviewed by Couric?
I love this piece from CNN. yes, Sarah Palin was right, you can see Russia from Alaska. 150 of native eskimos live there. they dont know who their Governor is and no Alaskan Governor has ever visited their island.
they throw their rubbish into the bering stretch and always ended up on the Russian side. I wonder if this is what Sarah was referring to when she mentioned about her FA experience with Russia. Maybe the Russians have complained to her about the rubbish from USA.
http://www.pbs.org/harriman/current/profiles/diomede.html
Those Quinnipiac polls have made the RCP averages go crazy.
Obama up 348-190 on no-toss up Electoral College map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Both Florida and Ohio flip on the Quinnipiac results…
More repercussions from the Q results:
Pennsylvania is now safer on the RCP averages than Maine for Obama (yes, I don’t believe it either).
And something else that I have noted – Virginia (Obama +3 in a state that hasn’t voted for the Dems since 1964) is now safer than Minnesota (Obama +2.8 in a state that hasn’t voted for the Republicans since 1972). It’s definitely a weird looking map out there…
Finns, so even the best line from the Fey parody on Palin “I can see Russia from my house” is based on a lie!
Do you mean that there is more demographic variation within states, or between states? Or both?
I vaguely recall you saying that the U.S. demographically features much starker differences than Australian voters, is this right? Are Australians more closer to some demographic average? Is this because we have less difference between rich and poor?
I don’t believe it. I think this is like overshoot because of the economic crisis. I think this will correct itself over the next few days. I think Obama is leading by 50 – 75 E.C. votes. 150 is nuts.
To put the Q polls in perspective, the last time any party won PA by 15% was Nixon in the 1972 landslide (20% margin then). The last time a Democrat won PA by 15% was Johnson in 1964 (30%).
In OH, the last time a Democrat won there by 8% was Johnson again. In Florida, no Democrat has won by 8% there since Harry Truman in 1948, when FL was still part of the solid south.
So what does that mean? My guess is that the Q polls are overshooting – by how much, I’d hesitate to guess, but I would think you’d be looking around 4 points for each (although that still gives Obama an 11 point lead in PA)…
So it’s gonna be a landslide!
If Kerry could win PA by 2.5%, then I think Obama is safe there.
Amigo FINNS
Notice Quinnipiac polls has created a flap tonite and you hav been mowing over possums lying on your back lawns
Very highly rated Pollster in USA is Quinnipiac but not on th ronniepollics scales seeeing Quinnipiac use there triple layer computer generated methodologies that tom me were theoretically flawed so I always dustbined them , but then on this site when is alternative psephology important
So Ron – is a pollster only credible when it favours your candidate (or in your case, doesn’t favour Obama)?
“, but then on this site when is alternative psephology important”
when it comes to winning a crikey subscription among others ron
If something sounds too good to be true.
Swing Lowe
on what basis was your snide comment based , seeing you could not hav extracted that from my last blog , and secondly explain in a minute how Quinnipiac operate seeing you claim to be a Pollster expert
John Stewart on the collapse of the bail out bill:
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=186754
Amigo ronnie, it looks like the Alamo is on again. where is GG?
Amigo , sweeping away th ruins of a possums credibility on ‘following th data where it takes you’ , did you know hangng on branchs upside down at nite not only does that cause wishful thinking but also ‘output more spread on your lawns makes them gro quicker & thats reely why you hav to lawn mower so often at nite
Gus
you were a deserving winner of crikey subscription , although was tempted to put in a selection at th last moment of Rudd on Labor 92% to Libs 8% Newspoll result which may hav left judges with a problem choosing beteen me winning on one method and you on another..but would not hav been fair
Franklin & Marshall College Poll
PA: Obama +5 MOE 3.5%
http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/KeySep08_1.pdf
Sounds about right to me. The latest Rasmussen says 6%.
Reports of a new NBC poll: Newly registered voters favor Obama 61 to 30
No link yet
This is to be expected, lots of college kids.
Question is, will they turn up on election day?
“choosing beteen me winning on one method and you on another..but would not hav been fair”
but ron i was using factual data,not wistful thinking (though 92-8 would be fine by me)
Maybe they should open up their residential market to foreign buyers for a time if they want cash flows and help asset prices – assuming there would be demand.
Pew Research national LV poll (MOE ~3%) has Obama up 6 points in two weeks
O 49 (up 3)
M 43 (down 3)
http://people-press.org/report/456/obama-regains-lead
Gus
Competitions hav rules set and those that do not adhere to them first get excluded
There were 6 categories of %’s required to be estimated
Another rule of competition was one had to give at least a one line explanation for th scores , only minescule even wrote a one line summary for there 6 selections combined and NO one wrote a one line explanation for each of 6 categories so anyone complying with former was qualified’ and anyone complying with later was “fully qualified”
An unwitting oversite by designers of th ‘competition’….however th ‘competition’ WAS intended to be fun & scores reely were main object so I chose not to enter so that he (you) who got th closest scores was th deserving winner and you were
Rasmussen 51 – 45 for Obama – same as Tuesday.
+9 with unaffiliated voters
51 – 42 as a better economic manager
McCain’s very unfavourable rating has now exceeded his very favourable for the first time all year.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
And only two days to the VP debate…
Here’s a hint at why Obama is leading Virginia:
45% don’t want Palin to be V.P.! Surely that is helping Obama a lot there. Obama is leading 56 / 40 among female voters. So this idea that women are going to blindly support Palin looks like a joke.
Even Clinton couldn’t win Virginia, so Obama is doing amazingly well there.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
26% are extremely comfortable with Palin?
NRA members?
Must be the level or rusted on Republicans who would vote for Bush again if they could.
Guess th guys will not accept th core reality of polls here thats its not econamic mangement thats dring Obama’s surge , until you see it gift wrapped with pretty professionaly sounding psephological words in th New York times or LA Times & th like , and certaily not from ronpollytics
Voters hav layers of resistance to Media info & a very rare thing just scores an immediate 100% bulls eye
When I very first heard of Bailout on that sunday , thought economicaly fine on financia principals BUT th most dumbest politcal announcement I’ve ever ever heard
As i’ve previously suggested , telling voters there taxpayers monies ar going to prop up Banks , to Wall Street to boot , and hell $800 billion to boot of there money , and its NOT going to them….and a “Republican” not a “Democrat” announces it is 100% bulls eye poison on Republicans from that second & with it POTUS
Polls ar I think reflecting this pro helping Banks perceived “Republican” idea point amongst voters , and am guesing whereever & whenever Pollsters poll this will get reflected more and more with all upside to Obama It was I think th most defining moment of th Election
Every party has a base!
The trend continues. In varying degrees the polls are all telling the same story.
I thought The Media brain washes everyone so they have no idea who or what they are supporting? That was the Marxist theory you were peddling a few days ago.
It seems that way – that people blame any problem to do with economy on the Republicans.
Hotline national poll
Obama +5 MOE 3.3%
Good piece in Time Magazine:
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1845209,00.html
Biden is getting some practice against a woman.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/vp-debate-prep-michigan-g_n_130806.html
Ahh, not surprised you endorse the economic colonic irrigation option. Who cares if it sends thousands of innocent people onto the street.
Pity it would leave the U.S. with only two big banks. But hey, your type doesn’t really care about competition anyway.
What are you blathering about. Did you even read the article. Of course not – you just jump to idiotically-conceived predispositions.
Sky showing live coverage of Obama addressing the Senate in Washington at the moment …… Live on Sky main and on Sky UK and Sky special (US Senate). Push the red button on your remote
GP,
i totally agree, unless USA is renamed to USSR (United States Socialist Republic). That’s the trouble with the USA, it is always good at telling the World: “Do as I say, not as I do”. It has no moral authority left to flog.
Anyway historically:
1850-1900 – The British Empire
1901-1950 – The American Hollywood dream
1951-2000 – The Japan Rising Sun
2001-2050 – The Chinese East is Red
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE48T5KU20080930?sp=true
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/mccain-gets-testy-with-de_n_130801.html
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/01/mccain-palin-advice/
This sounds a little bit like the team owner forced to defend his coach to the public and yet the coach still gets booted in the short term
…..
Possum, this story comments on polling in the US and specifically; landline vs mobile phone and how the gap affects the polling results. Your comments since you write a lot about polls?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-wihbey/the-cell-phone-polling-ga_b_131021.html
Summary of polls out there:
FL (Insider): Obama +3
NV (Insider): Obama +1
MS (Ras): McCain +8
TX (Ras): McCain +9
TN (Ras): McCain +19
OH (SurveyUSA): McCain +1
FL (CNN): Obama +4
VA (CNN): Obama +9!!!
MN (CNN): Obama +11
MO (CNN): Obama +1
NV (CNN): Obama +4
IN (SurveyUSA): McCain +3
OK (SurveyUSA): McCain +30
PA (Quin): Obama +15
OH (Quin): Obama +8
FL (Suffolk): Obama +4
FL (Quin): Obama +8
NJ (SurveyUSA): Obama +10
PA (Morning Call): Obama +7
PA (Franklin): Obama +7
WI (Strat. Vision): Obama +9
All in all, a spectacular set of polls for Obama. The only ray of light for McCain are the SurveyUSA polls. Pennsylvania now seems to be a certain lock for Obama, as does Wisconscin. Minnesota is drifting more towards lock status, while Obama has definite momentum in OH, FL, MO and NV.
However, the killer poll there is Obama’s lead of 9 in the Rasmussen poll in Virginia. McCain has to put some serious resources there just to make that race competitive again…
More on today’s polls:
Not only have FL and OH flipped to Obama in the RCP averages (FL is now Obama +3, OH is now Obama +2), but NV has now flipped. Obama is now + 0.5 on the RCP averages for NV and is sitting on 353-185 on the RCP No-toss up Electoral Map.
Even when there are toss-ups included, Obama is up 259-163, with PA and WI now in the leaning Obama column…
[
Palin Advising McCain
Posted on October 1st, 2008 by Daniel Larison
Simply priceless:
NPR: Given what you’ve said, senator, is there an occasion where you could imagine turning to Gov. Palin for advice in a foreign policy crisis?
McCain: I’ve turned to her advice many times in the past [bold mine-DL]. I can’t imagine turning to Senator Obama or Senator Biden because they’ve been wrong. They were wrong about Iraq, wrong about Russia.
Leave aside that they agree with him on Russia (maybe this is McCain’s way of admitting that he was wrong?). He can’t imagine turning to the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in a foreign policy crisis? Really? I doubt Biden would have the right answers, but he would seem to be one of the people in Congress you would hope the President is consulting at some point.
So he would rely on Palin’s advice, which we are supposed to believe he has already relied on many times in the last four weeks. Let’s imagine how one of these advisory sessions might play out:
McCain: I’m very concerned that the Russians are going to make a move against Ukraine. What do you think I should do?
Palin: Well, do what I do whenever Putin rears his head over our airspace: don’t blink.
McCain: But what action should we take?
Palin: I’ll have to get back to you.
Yes, the jokes pretty much write themselves when it comes to this pair.
]
Surely these numbers are inflated by the economic crisis.
McCain must be begging for Congress to pass this latest rescuse package.
I wonder if the US media will move on quickly once the ‘crisis’ is ‘averted’.
Yo ho ho, I’ve got the Senate debate on this bill on live feed from Sky at the moment. So far, they haven’t voted on it yet. It will happen at some point though. No guarantees that if they pass it that the HOR will. And if ammendments are attached to either version, it will have to go to a conference committee. I’m leaving home in an hour at 10:30am local time in Canberra and will be out for a few hours. If they vote before I go, I will post the Senate results asap.
Juliem at 318
The likelihood of polling underestimating Obama is pretty strong over the cellphone issue.
Two more pieces you might be interested in on this:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/is_youth_being_served.php
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phone_only_households_by.php
The cellphone penetration maps on that last post are interesting considering the States that are involved.
That would awesome Juliem!
Forgive my lack of knowledge, but what are the implications (in terms of procedure) for introducing the bill in the Senate?
Even the SMH is covering Obama’s polls. This article in todays SMH is pretty hopeful – he is ahead in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania now:
http://news.smh.com.au/world/obama-grabs-big-lead-in-key-us-states-20081002-4s7g.html
You have to wonder if CBS’s board and/or editorial directors are secretly working for or hoping for an Obama victory
…. they keep on leaking stuff day by day, how many more days will these leaks continue? 
……
Yohoho,
Revenue bills can ONLY originate in the HOR. Similar to here. The Senate can not originate revenue bills, thus the SOH saying that the Lib’s recent attempt to bring in a private members bill on pensions was not kosher. What the Senate is doing here, therefore, is “attaching” the bailout bill to another piece of legislation that they are voting on. Thus, the votes on that other bill, by default, will be as if they are voting on the bailout bill. They might also be hoping that they can drag a few extra votes into the bailout bill by hiding it inside of another bill as well. A technique often used by US politicians to get “pork barrel” projects passed – bury them inside a bill that the WH can’t afford to veto
. At any rate, once the bill is voted on tonight (Washington time), IF it is passed, then they “cherry pick” that part of the bill passed (bailout legislation) and walk it across the House to the HOR. The HOR is debating tomorrow, not tonight. SO what the HOR does with it will be on Thursday local time. It is entirely likely that we will have a matter of hours, if not minutes, between the final HOR vote and the beginning of the VP debate. Suspect that as with the first presidential debate that the economy will dominate questions 
…… NOW, as I’ve noted in another post earlier this morning, the Bailout bill ONLY passes if both houses pass an identical version. If either one attaches any ammendments to it that aren’t in the other house’s version, it has to go to a conference committee to iron out the differences whereupon it has to be revoted upon (identical wording in both houses) before it can become law. So there aren’t any reassurances that it will be a done deal before the VP debate ….. Hope that is as clear as mud 
Wow.
I bet the republicans are hoping that the bill is passed before the VP debate – whilst i’m sure that Palin has been extensively briefed on her ‘talking points’, that doesn’t seem to have helped so far.
Oh-oh. Our trusty, impartial, VP debate moderator has a book on the politics of race and FOX are not happy campers.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081001/pl_politico/22742
Yohoho,
Further to my noting earlier that the Senate “attaches” this bill to something else, this is from the Senates website.
[
H.R.1424
Title: To amend section 712 of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, section 2705 of the Public Health Service Act, section 9812 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to require equity in the provision of mental health and substance-related disorder benefits under group health plans, to prohibit discrimination on the basis of genetic information with respect to health insurance and employment, and for other purposes.
Sponsor: Rep Kennedy, Patrick J. [RI-1] (introduced 3/9/2007) Cosponsors (274)
Related Bills: H.RES.1014, H.R.493, H.R.1367, S.358
Latest Major Action: 3/7/2008 Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 610.
House Reports: 110-374 Part 1, 110-374 Part 2, 110-374 Part 3
Note: On 10/1/2008, the Senate plans to use H.R.1424 as the vehicle for the economic rescue legislation. See Senate Majority and Minority notices and documents from the Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. On the Banking Committee website, Division A (pp.2-113) of the draft legislation is referred to as the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008; Division B (pp. 113-261) is referred to as the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008; and Division C (pp. 261-451) is referred to as the Tax Extenders and Alternative Minimum Tax Relief Act of 2008.
]
I’ve got to leave the house now. I don’t know if they have voted yet or not on the bill in question. They had a big vote on something between 10:10am and 10:25am BUT I’m not clear on what they were voting ON at that moment (they are voting on multiple ammendments and legislation tonight). [ They are voting on something at present to do with India and nuclear energy ]. Anyways, that big vote for what I don’t know was 74y – 24n and McCain voted in the negative. I didn’t hear Obama’s vote.
Keep an eye on the various websites and I am sure that someone here will post the bailout vote when it hits the fan. Check in again with all of you mid afternoon ….. Cheers
The indian thing was to sell uranium or plutonium or something to India without India signing the Nuclear NPT. Probably a fair call by McCain to vote no there!
the polls certainly aren’t fantastic for the Republicans at the moment allthrough the latest ABC/Washington Post showing Obamas lead had evaporiated slightly from 52 to43 to 50 ti 46. The latest Rasmussen poll had McCain leading in only one of the five Battleground states Ohio with Obama ahead in Colorado, Pennslyvania and Virginia with Florida a deadheat. I like many right minded people are horrified by the thought of Obama as Commander in Chief of the free worlds number one military. The 1970’s was a terrible psychological period for the US and the free world in having to abandon Vietnam without seeing the toppling of the Communist regime in Hanoi. Thankfully due to the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe and Soviet Union by 1991 we got over that awful period. Can we afford to abandon Iraq with the prospect of Iranian jubilation and Russia eyeing off oil rich Former Soviet Central Asia republics. The United States now more than ever needs John McCain and the Republicans and theres never been a greater need for John McCain and the Republicans.
Senate has begun the roll call on the bailout bill
The Poetry of Sarah Palin
http://www.slate.com/id/2201342/
“You Can’t Blink”
You can’t blink.
You have to be wired
In a way of being
So committed to the mission,
The mission that we’re on,
Reform of this country,
And victory in the war,
You can’t blink.
So I didn’t blink.
(To C. Gibson, ABC News, Sept. 11, 2008)
Sarah Palin completed a Journalism degree she is no uneducated nit wit grow up leftist Liberal elite.
Paul Nash @ 334, Sory but that is rubbish, I, like any like minded people find that even the remotest possibility that the current Republicans ticket wins the White House in November a terrifying thought.
This is the party that has lied, and lied and lied to achieve what? The US and ourselves becoming more of a terrorist target, locking up innocent people in prison without charge or trial or right of defence. Thats a dictatorship not a democracy.
The killing of innocent men, women and children in Iraq under the false pretense of Weapons of Mass destruction.? Where are they,? The US and this country sent our people there to possibly be killed. Human life is more sacred than being sent to a war for the sake of a politicians lie.
This is the party that has deregulated so much that it has accomplished the collapse and undermining of the US and global financial system. When the Republicans came to power in 2000, they came in to a budget in surplus.
The world cannot afford a regime in the US like the last 8 years. A regime that has made the world suspicious of US intentions. Anyone who questions the US is classed as being against them.
The world is not black and white. Finally the people in the US see light at the end of the tunnel, and will vote Obama as the next President.
Shame she acts like it
Senate passes bailout bill.
72 Aye, 24 Nay
Who abstained
sorry that should be 73-25
74-25 I think, not 72-24
yeh looks like 74-25. CSPAN keeps changing the number on the screen.
Paul Nash
#334
“I like many ‘RIGHT’ minded people are horrified by the thought of Obama as Commander in Chief of the free worlds number one military”
As a Labor person , we’d be in general philosophical disagreement on many issues , however I agree your comment Obama has a demomnstrated record of lack of “ticker” and lack of convictions…either of which could lead World into a nuclear catasophe through miscalculations on both sides in numerous trouble spots
This guy Obama crazily has said he’d take out pakistans nuclear arsenal PRE EMPTIVELY…and do so simply because he may not imitially like a reime change in Pakistan But then his supporters here mostly see him as a messiah & haven’t reseached him
You should note I regard Obama as a phoney left person anyway …Obama’s politcs actualy ar simply Obama , about himself Had candidate been a Al Gore type ie. genuine “left’ person , having ‘ticker’ and having commonsense & convictions , then
we would hav been in disagreement
regime change
CNN says both McCain and Obama vote for the bailout bill…
Yeah, she completed a journalism degree, but can’t name a single news source she reads: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html
I think it is funny you use liberal as if it is a derogatory remark, does that make you illiberal?
PN
You are desperate and its obvious. I’m confused though, I thought you right wingers don’t think qualifications matter? Do you think we should chose between McCain and Obama based on qualifications?
Still, if Palin is so well qualified how come she can’t answer simple questions about foreign policy or the economy? Is it because she spent the 20 years in between raising a family and then being a small town mayor rather than holding any meaningful role? Mind, in a society where most people finish high school and many do some tertiary study, a single degree in communicatiosn or journalism, over several years at diferent universities, wihtout any honours or subsequent work practice, is not much.
I’d say: Go for it!!!
Pakistan have been more of an enemy than an ally in the War on Terror. Of course, let’s see how the new President goes – if he’s more cooperative/effective than Musharraf, then obviously there will be no need to worry about them…
342: Senator Kennedy was the absent vote (For obvious reasons. He has cancer)
illogical perhaps
Well, Bush hasn’t done this, so why would Obama?
1) He never said this 2) Palin supports Obama’s policy on Pakistan.
You need to go read up some more on political ideology.
I hope you realise that Al Gore was one of the only Democrat senators to vote in favour of the first Gulf War…
Biden also voted in favour of the bailout plan
I wonder how Lieberman voted. I see him as McCain’s V.P. candidate in exile.
I’d be very surprised if he voted against it.
Ron 334 I as a Country/National person and a Labor person has more in common then with a Liberal person. In the United States the Republicans are able to reach out to Unionists in a similiar fashion as Democrats unlike Australia the Union movement isn’t a part of any political party unlike Australias Labor Party.
As for Socrates, Shows on and Dario your Liberal bias is showing and yes i am desperate i like many evangelical christians in the United States believe this could be the “end of days”.(middle name Hussein)
Not like the end of the world but the end of the US as the worlds leading nation and the ramifications of despotic countries like China, Russia, India and Iran all fighting to fill the vacuum this would create. The United States can’t afford the luxury of putting in a man as President simply because it provides a feel good factor had Hillary Clinton won the nomination i wouldn’t be so desperate.
Paul
I’m confused by your statement. Are you suggesting that Obama’s middle name, and the fact he is a man will lead to the US’s decline as a nation?
Not since the 1980s mate.
A person’s middle name determines whether or not they will be a good president? Yeah right! Does that mean we shouldn’t elect politicians with W as their middle initial? You know, like George W Bush, and John W Howard.
India!? You mean the world’s most populous DEMOCRACY!? LOL!
Well the current President seems to be giving the U.S. a FEEL BAD factor (his disapproval rating is now 70%). So I have no idea why you think the U.S.’s problems have been caused by Obama.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
Yes India Showson the country that still believes in the most evil class system- THE CASTE SYSTEM.
SNIP: Reference to deleted comment deleted – The Management.
According to his theory, it is impossible to evaluate whether or not Abraham Lincoln was a good president because he didn’t have a middle name.
What has this got to do with Obama’s middle name?
358: Is a pile of rotting brainwashed ideological right wing compost. You left off your list one of those despotic countries, the US under the Republicans and the christian fundies that support them.
So Obama’s now responsible for a middle name his parents gave him, and that it is going to signify is the end of the world.? Thats hilarious. ! It’s better comedy than watching Sarah Palin trying to sound coherent.
Only the conservatives (and old-fogies) in India still follow this system.
Most young (and middle-aged) Indians no longer practice the caste system and are more concerned with making money and getting laid than with what their class is (kind of like Australia…
)
An exception to this, of course, is the pathetic (and tragic) way members of the Untouchables are treated by other people in Indian society. Thankfully, changes are being made even on that front…
Dearest Bloggers,
To clarify things a put the “end of days (middle name Hussein)”
Because to evangelical christians Hussein stands for a Islamists name and Barack Obamas father was muslim. Evangelicals remember the dark days of Christendom when the Islamists invaded Europe and ended up at the gates of Vienna in the 1500s.
Another point I want to make is that it will be the Electoral College votes that decide this election not the popular vote. We remember in 2000 how George W Bush won the election fair and square on this basis and imagine if Al Gore had have been proclaimed winner on the popular vote alone Americans would be leaving in poverty today based on his obsession with the notion of man made climate change higher Fuel prices and gigantic electricity bills would be his presidential legacy. You Liberals are so dangerous to the average person wait until Australia faces this quagmire under the Rudd Government with Liberal acquience if only we had a strong National Party.
Senate bailout vote: 74-24
Dems: 40-9 (Obama, Biden aye)
Repubs: 34-15 (McCain aye)
Ind: 1-1 (Lieberman aye, Sanders nay)
Sorry that was 74-25
Meh. Just ignore this troll.
Paul Nash
I recommend you read “An American Dilemma” by Gunnar Myrdal. It explains the caste system in America.
Paul, I like to run a pretty broad church (so to speak), but you’re cutting it fine with this “Hussein” business.
What on earth does this have to do with this year’s Presidential election?
Nonsense doesn’t count as a legitimate reason for why Barack Obama should be President.
It would be the same as me saying that I don’t like the taste of McCain Healthy Choice Meals ( http://www.mccainhealthychoice.com.au/ ), therefore John McCain shouldn’t be president because he will make everyone eat healthy food. Utter nonsense doesn’t count as a valid argument!
You mean the same as every Presidential election?
LOL! Petrol prices in the U.S. are already at an all time high (over US$4 a gallon) thanks to GEORGE W BUSH!
Bush’s economic policies have been an absolute disaster. But I guess that is how he has dealt with rising electricity costs – there’s no need to pay electricity bills if you no longer own a home, or can’t afford to rent a place.
I think your illiberal ideas are dangerous because you think a person’s middle name is the best way to judge them.
The agrarian socialist party (National Party) is losing support because it doesn’t stand for anything, it just blindly supports the Liberals.
Also I note that the Nationals take climate change more seriously than YOU, and many Liberals, because they see how it impacts on farmers.
New Research 2000 polls:
Indiana: McCain +1
Iowa: Obama +16
Iowa is now a certain lock for Obama, while Indiana is still a toss-up
McCain was campaigning in Iowa on Monday, which suggests to me his campaign is hopelessly disorganised.
He is at the point he needs to win either Pennsylvania or Michigan, or Wisconsin and Minnesota (i.e. a Kerry state from 2004).
India the country does not believe in the caste system. There is still, of course, huge divides between people on socio-economic, racial and religious grounds, many of which are remnants of the caste system, but to say that India believes in this system is wrong and frankly quite insulting.
And I wish that I could understand the view point (we’ll leave logic until later) of these people who are afraid of someones name. Incredible in how infantile these viewpoints and prejudices are.
“Hey look, it’s the two symbols of the Republican Party, an elephant and a fat white guy who’s afraid of change.”
Gee somebody is actually saying it was lucky GW Bush got elected and not Gore. I don’t need to list the well known disasters Bush has wrought on the USA and the world. We only see the tip his ice berg now with this financial crisis. I venture to say that Bush has started America on a long slow decline unless Obama can begin the long slow turn of this Titanic. Should he be elected.
OK now I read the evangelical Christian bit – now I understand where the nonsense is coming from. It is Bush and his church and more particular the Pastor of his church that believes chaos needs to reign on earth before Christ will return – hence the propensity to start wars. Fortunately loonies self identify with what they say and automatically alert people to stand back. To funadmentalist Christians it doesn’t matter if the world is falling apart – it is all on the parth to redemption (for those in on the joke).
Dario @ 368,
Does anyone have a link that itemizes the votes? In otherwords, lets us see the total listing of who voted “no”? thanks
On current polls, his best shot is New Hampshire, where Obama is up by 1.3% on RCP Averages.
After that, you’re looking at Minnesota (+ 4.6%), Wisconscin (+5.0%), Washington (+6.0%) and Michigan (+6.6%). In PA, Obama is up by 7.6%, which is the same as Maine, so McCain can forget about it (although overcoming a 5% lead in WI, WA and MI will be very difficult as well).
Here ya go…
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/livecoverage/2008/10/senators_who_voted_against_the.html
Link to the roll call:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14196.html
Iowa poll link:
http://www.kcci.com/politics/17598982/detail.html
Obama now has a massive 353-185 EV lead on Intrade, and is priced at 64.9 for the win
I agree with Paul Nash (337)
Sarah Palin is “no uneducated nit wit”. She is an educated nit wit – and they’re even worse.
Totally. That’s why a lot of fundamentalist Christians now are strong supporters of Israel. They don’t support Israel because it is a democracy (the reason I support Israel), but rather they support Israel because they don’t want the middle east peace process to be resolved. They want Israel to start a war with Iran so that it ‘brings on the apocalypse’.
Dario @ 384,
An old saying goes something like this …… “There’s a snowball’s chance in h*** [that event 'X' will happen]”
Afraid that McCain has reached that point
…….
Off-topic, but check this out – Google as of 2001:
http://www.google.com/search2001.html
I searched Barack Obama (no apostrophes) and got only 770 hits. By contrast, the same search term in today’s Google gets you 70.3 million hits!!!
Al Qaeda only has 1670 hits in 2001, but has 20.1 million hits tomorrow. How much the world has changed…
Virginia has gone from 53 to 59% in 1 day.
Florida has been flipping back and forth, but now shows a solid lead for Obama.
Admit it, after that, you search for your own name.
Actually – I didn’t (but I will now
)
I searched “Sarah Palin” and Google 2001 has no documents. LOL – even I had 2 hits when I put my name in apostrophes in Google 2001…
Those Q polls are looking accurate now. This economy thing has really killed McCain and he only has his Repug buddies to blame. It looks like carnage on the recent polls at RCP fro McCain.
Palin will probably do OK tomorrow but she needs to give voters a reason to change to McCain which she definitely will not do. It’s a lost opportunity for the Repugs when they desperately need a circuit breaker.
Swing Lowe
My name comes up with thousands of references to a black guy in the US who was about to be fried on death row in Texas until they worked out he didn’t do it and let him go.
The way I see it, Biden can further HELP Obama, whereas Palin can only potentially HURT McCain’s chances.
Ron :
#346
“This guy Obama crazily has said he’d take out pakistans nuclear arsenal PRE EMPTIVELY…and do so simply because he may not imitially like a regime change in
Pakistan”
Swing Lowe
#351
“I’d say: Go for it!!!
Pakistan have been more of an enemy than an ally in the War on Terror.”
You’ve just self convicted yourself of possessing dangerously irrational FA ideas & hav no credibility on FA based on those views , Also still waiting for your answer on Quinnipiac justifying your snide criticism of my Quinnipiac Poll blog seeing I’d not commented previously on other Pollsters
You were later followed by ShowsOn & Dario who both Adam & I hav exposed as blogging mistruths as truths , so there zealotary untrue posts regarding anything at all about Obama should always be ignored as novice barrackers
When and where did this occur, or are you “blogging mistruths as truths”?
My name comes up with a musician, an artist, a baseball player and a rugby league player. I never knew I had such talent!
Simple – I give pollsters the benefit of the doubt until I see evidence that they are inaccurate.
Fivethirtyeight.com says that Q has a 1-2 point Dem bias this election. I accept that and shall discount their weightings accordingly.
I don’t see why I have to justify believing a professional pollster’s polls…
Ronster
You’re missing the forest for the trees. Ignore the Q polls and look at todays RCP. McCain is getting killed.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
PM 367
From your views I wonder if you think the US should expell every muslim in the country? That would be unconstitutional, given that you live in a country that was founded on the basis of freedom of religeous expression for all (assuming you have read your constitution). Obama is not a muslim, but even if he was, he is still entitled to become president if he is hte best person for the job. Its plain that McCain isn’t.
Criticising people on the basis of their name is even sillier. US WWII General Omar Bradley had an arabic name (Omar). Was he unpatriotic? The fact is “Hussein” is a common semitic mid-eastern name. For your education, read:
http://www.juancole.com/2008/02/barack-hussein-obama-omar-bradley.html
Finally, I know it is not PC to criticise peope’s religeon but I have little time for fundamentalist christians, or fundamentalists of any faith. They have been pandered too far too much by cynical politicians in recent years. They can believe whatever they dream up, but they have no right to force the rest of us to adhere to their beliefs, which are far less universal than they imagine. They also have no justification to do so under christianity. One of the core beliefs in christianity was that god gave humans free will to decide whether to worhsip or not. Read the new testament and Jesus warns explicitely against those who try to foretell things like “the end of days” (You will know not the hour or the day). I sometimes wonder how many fundamentalists have even read the bible.
Not many. There’s a new movie out in the US by comedian Bill Maher called ‘Religolous’ where he went out to middle america and interviewd people about what they knew of the bible etc. It was scary the responses he got…
I think many of them avoid it, else it may challenge the certainty of their world view. The bible is in many parts ambiguous, or at least open to varying degrees of interpretation. This explains why even religious scholars can’t agree on what some verses actually mean.
Fundamentalism seems to me to be opposed to ambiguity and complexity, instead it tries to simplify things to a black or white world view, us against them, good v evil. Well, I don’t think the world works that way. Actually knowing something takes a lot more time and reflection than that. Which is why fundamentalists don’t make good political leaders, they can’t accept things are often more complicated than how they make it.
CBS poll has Obama up by 9 nationally:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/01/opinion/polls/main4491938.shtml
How high can he go?
Dario @ 404,
As high as he can fly, look at his opposition
ShowsOn
Yes I think it is a huge moral cop out to just say “I must do/not do X because my pastor said so”. No better than fundamentalis muslims saying “I must jihad against X because my imam said so”. Some economists are not much better “we must adopt policy X because Milton Friedman said so”. These people seem afraid to think for themselves, because they might find some of their cherished beliefs are false.
Socrates
They’re not called the Christian Taliban for nothing.
Swing Lowe
You stated your opinion of how you judge pollsters , but I did not criticise your opinion at all , so your reply on your personal opinion of pollsters is not relevant
What is relevant is I had not previously criticised any other Pollster NO matter what there Polls said favouring Obama
THEN I give an opinion on a particular Pollster namely Quinnipiac , and your reply was a snide comment that I did not like th then released Quinnipiac Poll just because it favoured Obama
I’ve asked you to give your reasons for your unsolicited snide comment , seeing it was th first Pollster I’d queried , which gav you an oportunity to rethink your remark Your subsequent reply indicates you hav not An impartial person would hav difficulty in justifying your post
McCain’s falling short was predictable, and has been predicted by several for some time. The US economy was headed for a fall this year and the timing was not accidental (October is their reporting season and all the bad news comes out then). McCain could not cope with that, or distance himself enough from Bush, especailly with Phil Gram in tow as his advisor. Now that the Senate has passed a reasonable compromise bill, the economic criss will not get worse, but the recession will take a while to abate.
From here till election day the democrats should hammer these themes: Who caused this mess? (Dubbya and cronies) Can McCain fix it? (no) Who makes the decisions if McCain can’t? (Palin? ROTFL Gram? shudder)
Ron,
2 things:
1. Let it go – I made that comment over 18 hours ago – there’s no point hammering on about it forever…
2. That said, I do apologise. Not only for the tone of the comment, but also because I didn’t know that Q was the only pollster that you have criticised.
For all those McCain supporters and Obama haters, it’s not looking good.
Americans are not happy that their tax paying dollars are going into failed financial institutions to rescue their economy.
Obama in from 1.45 to 1.30. McCain out from 2.70 to 3.30.
What about those neo conservative extreme right wing republicans? They decry any kind of socialism. They detest any kind of government intervention and regulation. Well now it has come back to bite them in the @rse in a big way with this rescue package.
Idiots.
God bless America they say. Well God is obviously doing something else.
The place is a DIVE! Probably the worst and most ideological democratic country on earth.
412,
They will probably claim that “it wasn’t me” looking at the vote tally
Swing Lowe
$410
“I do apologise. Not only for the tone of the comment, but also because I didn’t know that Q was the only pollster that you have criticised.”
Accepted SL , no problem
I might mention as an interesting point that US has alot of Pollsters , some National & some more geographic based using different methodoliogies partly caused by non compulsory voting meaning not only ar sample sizes a problem there but also historical voting levels vs likely voters vs Party shares of population vs reistration levels maybe changing those shares vs turnout rates etc etc & different methodologies ar used & in Quinnipiac’s case was not happy with there’s
If you missedd it I gav a view of overall polling in my #305 , which itself was a repeat of comments I’d made about a week earlier re bailout effect and Polls