Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.
1,274 Comments
The question is – can Obama keep the lead up? And for how long?
Methinks his lead will start to contract after (if!) the bailout is passed and the economy disappears from the front pages for a few days…
Swing Lowe,
For 36 days
yes, he is the culprit. blame it on Alan Greenspan who once cautioned the stock market not too be “too exuberance”.
The easiest way to stop the stock market from being too exuberant is to increase interest rates, but Greenspan refused to do that, which is why so much bad credit is now killing the market.
It is going to be 36 very interesting days!
Particularly I’m looking forward to the VP discussion.
This is going to have a huge impact on the polls.
I use a widget to keep track of the progression of polls. The widget shows the election polls by strength of states.
In addition to other different graphical visualizations of data, this one displays the progression of votes over time.
Hereby you can see how/if the states have moved!
It gives a great overview and it is updated as the polls come in!
http://www.youcalc.com/apps/1221747067033
… and its easy to put on your blog and fits in your sidebar!
Make a difference, keep on voting!
I note that William is still struggling to contain his enthusiasm for his favourite thread.
The UMR poll he links reflects PB. Of Labor voters, 79% want Obama to win and only 6% want McCain to win. Now that Adam has gone, where are we going find that 6%! Perhaps Ron could take one for the team.
For William’s benefit though, post 5 looks and smells a lot like a bot post. Quite a few very similar blog comments posted in the last few hours if you Google some of the phrases used.
Plus, he used my favourite footballers name in vain.
Who bothered to commission a poll into Australian perspectives on the US presidential election? A real waste of money.
I think some commentators are right in that Palin would do better if not trying to parrot some learned responses. Under pressure she is trying to remember all the points she has learnt and in consequence sounds incoherent and painful.
They may as well let her answer as best she can from whatever it is she knows and whatever common sense she has – at least (one hopes) it would be logical and coherent – even if ignorant of some of the facts and realities. Better to sound ignorant that sound like a nut case.
Focus on Iowa.
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/09/30/1932997-mccain-focusing-on-iowa-despite-polls
Obama’s doing well now, let’s hope he can crush McCain in Nov. The Aus survey seems to be about right. A pity Labor can never hope for those kinds of figures.
Itep: I heart that survey. To use an American metaphor, it shows that Australian states are naturally “blue”, not “red”. Even our most conservative states (W.A. and Qld.) dislike McCain, and they dislike Palin more.
Re 12,
Too bad that we can’t translate that dislike for Republicans into dislike for the Libs and Nats
There would be no other surving party if Labor got figures like that.
steve
McCain has completely lost it if he thinks he’s got a chance in Iowa. He should be in MI or PA. One has to question the man’s sanity.
I was pleased to see that all of McCain’s talk about getting a bipartisan approach to the bailout actually bore fruit in his home state. He must have a lot of pull in Arizona. The Dems and the Repugs voted unanimously together. There were four Dems and four Repugs in Congress and all eight voted AGAINST the bailout. He must be real popular in Arizona.
Obama got a level vote in Illinois with the Dems 7-4 and Repugs 2-5.
This is McCain’s only chance to ascend the pinnacle of power in the US.
He is now in desperation mode and the next 6 weeks should be interesting.
There will be no stone left unturned in his scramble for votes. ANY VOTES.
Fasten the seatbelts and enjoy the ride. Can’t wait for the VP’s debate Thursday.
RealPolitics is now giving North Carolina to Obama if you look at their EV map with no tossup states
……. up to 301 now folks 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Here’s Geoff Elliott’s take on it in the Oz.
And finishes with the “Money Quote”.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php
I question why McCain is campaigning in Iowa.
Obama has been surprisingly strong there. McCain’s got a (much) better shot in neighbouring Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The only one of those four that haven’t been polled recently (i.e. since the financial crisis started in earnest) is Indiana. I’m fascinated to see what movement (if any) has taken place there. It’s a difficult state to figure out because it is demographically unique – a very red state in the middle of the very purple midwest…
You guys have been too harsh on George W. he does have some usefulness:
http://home.people.net.au/~sspp/bush.jpg
Well, It’s getting colder over there boom boom
Interesting point all the Congressman from Sarah Palin voted against the bail-out.
If the Market tanks or a major new crisis develops then Thursday VP debate may wreck the McCain campaign.
I was blog surfing U.S blogs and there was one blog that I can’t recall at present but if William would like I will attempt to locate, the Blog at a serious of state polls and it was Interesting to see several states that voted for Bush leaning towards Obama.
I think Obama will go on and win in November but it will be a close result.
juliem has already provided the link to the blog I mentioned in previous post
What do you mean ‘all the Congressman from Sarah Palin’?
Interesting link to what may be the political repercussions of this morning’s bailout vote:
http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/three_scenarios.php
Personally, I don’t think that the 3rd scenario described is accurate – recessions have come and gone (several times) in the past 40 years and there hasn’t been too many radical political realignments in the US (1968 is the only one that comes to mind, which happened during the Vietnam war and counterculture protests).
My pick is that McCain will continue to suffer until the bailout is sorted out (won’t be done by Thursday our time earliest) and it will then be up to him to cut back as much into Obama’s lead as fast as possible.
As for Congress – we all know that the Dems will retain both the House and Senate – but, whilst I see strong gains for the Dems in the Senate, I only see a modest pickup of seats for them in House…
LTEP,
I think Mexicanbeemer means the Congressman from Alaska (Rep. Young – R).
Given that he’s in the fight for his political life (he’s trailing by 14 points in the last poll out there), it was highly unlikely that he was ever going to vote for what was considered to be a highly unpopular bailout (although I think people’s opinion of it will change now that the value of their 401-Ks took a major hit yesterday)…
The economy is not going to dissappear between now and November. The only way it will stabilise is if they do a (very costly to taxpayers) deal. In the mean time the falout continues. The despeate announcements lately have been about avoiding that fallout. Never mind the share price falls (still only about 25% overall, which compares to the one day loss in 1987) the real drama will be the coming collapse of equity funds and the employment consequences as incomes decline. Australia is much better off and the government here is acting quite sensibly to protect us (insane revenue blocking measures in the Senate aside). But the US is headed for a long recession – nobody will loan them the cash to get out of it.
I think he meant Alaska.
This new Rasmussen poll says that it is about even between those who support and oppose the bail out:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/opposition_to_bailout_plan_falls_dramatically
It’s basically a third each in favour, opposed, and unsure or uncommitted.
So I think the idea that it is strongly opposed by the public is wrong.
I think this add on Google might be a bit out of date or misleading, somehow!
I return today to see 1.25 trillion lost , bailout fails , 12 votes decided $800billion
95 Democrats and 133 Republicans killed it and is anyone so foolish as to suggest only th Republicans killed it when a 10 year maths student will know EITHER Partys votes killed it , so both ar equally responsible
Econamically th bailout was/is necessary ONLY because of its flow on effects on both US & world economy
I must say from my hart I would hav favored a ronanomics solution…let all those greedy and/or irresponsible credit decsion making Banks etc go broke , let there high powered brown paper finacial engineers go ta ta without parachute $ exits , provide finacial relief for employees affected re welfare etc , wow i’ve still got 790 billion left…so 120 billion for universal healthcare , ‘trade’ with viable banks to rejig loans on capacity to repay so homeowners hav opportunity to reasonable repay wthin means but keep houses & stabilise house prices , implement a ‘poor’ climb ladder program , and with rest ring th Chinese to keep it…and sack any who won’t be reprogrammed to accept adequate ‘regulation’, standards & disclosure and balanced budgets , or maybe just abolish econamists anyway
ShowsOn @ 28,
I read an article today (sorry forgot to save the link) which said that the safety of ones seat was directly related to how they voted on the bailout plan. Those who were in tough reelection races were overwhelmingly voting against it. Ditto for the opposite end of the spectrum. And for those who aren’t up for reelection? They voted (think the numbers were about 2 dozen or so?) all but two for the bailout plan.
If they knew they didn’t have to answer to anyone or that they were safe, they voted for it. Otherwise not ……
Ron
Any chance you could support McCain? We badly need a Repug supporter to bash up now that Adam has left, hopefully temporarily.
The ronanomics solution looks good to me.
Both Parties killed the bailout but they are not equally responsible. 66% Dems said yes and only 30% Repugs agreed so the Repugs are more responsible which must be eating away at McCain like a cancer.
O’Possum Factor
#1124 dated 30/9/08
“I can only go with the data Dio. The alternative to observable reality is
wishful thinking.”
O’Possum Factor you only ‘go with th data’ when its not adverse to Obama…when its adverse to Obama say like strongly linking him to corrupt sleeze Rezko , then you ‘don’t go with th data’ ….then don’t go with NYT journalistic investigations or ABC News , ah wishful thinking then
Intrade now has Obama at 62.2 vs McCain at 37.6. State by state markets at 338 – 200. Very ugly numbers for the Repubs.
One of McCain’s economic advisers co-wrote a book in 2000 predicting that the Dow would hit 36,000 in a decade:
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0609806998/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222774439&sr=8-3
Apparently the Dow Jones is now lower than when Bush was first elected.
The best break down of this sort I have been able to find was in the Washington Post. All 17 Republicans who won their first term at the last election voted against it! How gutless.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122273311165788291.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
Most likely this would result in a world-wide recession that would take a few years for us to get out of. I don’t see how that would help improve living standards.
LOL! Yeah Ron, it is all the fault of economists.
Exactly what Rezko data are you referring to!?
Obama was at 62.5 earlier in the day. But still, he is up by about 4.5% in the last 36 hours.
Having said that, he was around 60 shortly after his convention, so it seems what has really happened is the Republican convention / Palin factor has washed out, and we are now back basically to where we were before, plus a boost because of the economic issues.
Interestingly, according to this chart Obama’s figures started to take off when Lehman filed for bankruptcy:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/09/on_the_state_of_the_race_1.html
There has been some slight Intrade movement on Palin being withdrawn. It’s now up to 11.9 from 9.5. Nothing to get excited about at this stage but maybe worth keeping an eye on.
ShowsOn
didnt you know about rezko (real name-beezlebub)
apparently after chewing on some latino babies he sets out to enslave some more hos and bros to run his skanky shakedown loansharking slumlord empire.
after lunch he moonlites as a high school careers advisor sic,subverting the youth of tomorrow with his evil plans.
or so i heard
Au contraire my good man O’Ronnly @ 33 – your definition of data (encompassing everything from poorly interpreted pieces of colour research from the NYT, right through to Republican talking point memos and old socks) differs significantly from mine (numbers).
Anyway – that’s an old argument full of heat and little light. I’ve found a site that should keep you occupied for hours
http://obamacrimes.com/
Enjoy!
Shows on – I take offence to blaming it on the economists.
I blame the hippies!
Why? Who cares – this is the US thread where reasons dont seem to be needed very often
ADAM
#1107
Yes your post description of most Obamabots here was 100% accurate , typical elitists whose snobbery & arrogance is a character trait & only equalled by there blind unobjective zealotary belief in Obama , who is a phoney & is anti traditional core ‘left’ policys Th oither Obamabot group th non elitists Obama zealotary believers hav simply copied there brethrens blogging traits
Interestingly when there was a US thread earlier in th year till July , there were approx 30 odd Obamabots then there , 95% of whom who had IDENTICAL traits to first paragraph description…so bad th moderator closed th site down , and they formed there own independent thread (which we of us non obama believers left behind christianed appropriately th obamabot “Gilligans Island’)
As a Labor supporter , I find both Thread’s sets of elitist /zealotary Obamabots completely non traditional aussie Labor both in approach & standards I must also say Obamabots generally display a lame interest in core Labor ‘left’ values provable by there strong unequivacol defences of Obama ,& gallingingly even when phoney Obama is 100% in clear unambiguous breach thereof , and therefore hav always assumed they’re in th far left fringe non Labor zone
Actualy , being a public person you made a wise decision to disassociate yourself from this lot
Me being a non public person can continue to post here unaffected , although primarily to engage th minuscule % of genuine Labor supporters here who believe Obama is ‘left’ of th conservative Republican and belive a change from a Republican admin/dim wit policy corrupt Bush will be benefical I hav no problems with this miniscule % at all So that’s only why I’m still here against th Obama hordes…and still Labor and still defiant
Has there been any poll in the US since the bailout bill was defeated to see whether the majority of voters blame the democrats or the republicans for it? I think McCain is toast either way because of the way he attachd himself to it, but there are still all teh congressional and gubernatorial contests and I imagine this could influence them greatly.
No official numbers yet, but a soon to be released ABC News poll will apparently shows that they blame the Republicans (surprise, surprise)
http://www.politicshome.com/USA/#
Thanks Dario, I think that is significant. Asuming Obama will win now he will want a majority in Congress and teh Senate to work with. If the republicans are blamed for the bailout then I expect he will get both.
How ‘core left’ is McCain’s policy of giving a huge tax cut to rich people by making the Bush tax cuts permanent?
What about his policy of making people put their social security into privatised accounts that are on the stock market?
How ‘core left’ is McCain’s policy of staying in Iraq for 100 years if necessary?
Why don’t you support Obama’s policy of universal health care, and cheaper health care coverage for those who already have it?
How is it ‘core left wing’ to support a V.P. candidate who thinks the earth is less than 7000 years old. I mean, doesn’t the left cherish enlightenment values of evidence and logical reasoning?
I think your idea of what constitutes left wing ideology needs reconsideration.
Some interesting analysis over at 538 on why the Battleground poll is so far away from all the other major polls at the moment (+2 McCain as opposed to +6 to +9 for Obama). It seems Battleground have their age weightings very, very skewed:
In fact, there is an outside chance the Democrats will win 60 Senators, which is enough to stop filibusters.
This page says the Democrats will win about 55 seats, but with a 15% chance they will get to 60, which is the highest level it has been all year:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/senate%20polls
Rasmussen 51/45
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Rasmussen is pretty stable now. McCain needs another stunt!
Maybe his next stunt could be a press conference to announce no new stunts? “Read my lips, no new stunts.”
I just think this week is very crucial. There’s already a big gap in the polls (6% means something like 9 million votes), let’s say Biden only just edges Palin out in the V.P. debate, that will equal another few days of positive coverage for Obama, even more if Palin’s performance is attrocious. So how exactly does McCain then turn it around with just 4 weeks to go?
Given bailout legislation was formulated in Congress where Democrats hav a majority , vote is 205 for and 228 NO to kill th bailout , meaning only 12 votes were needed from th NO voters to pass bailout Bill
Only 12 needed to say YES out of 95 Democrats , or 12 needed out of 133 Republicans
ie. 13% of NO Democrats or 9% of NO Republicans needed to change there vote to YES
How can one argue that there is not equal Party responsibility when only 12 votes were needed This was an equal failure of both Partys HoR representatives , and th “spin” thats its Republican caused is typical of Obama supporters who can not see th saem Congress of Democrat controlled(2 years) and earlier Republican controlled(6 years) hav irreponsibly been passing monstaous budget deficits
From memory only , think current budget was set at minus 160 billion and now pre Wall Street collapse is estimate to exceed 430 billion
Because that is what PEOPLE ACTUALLY THINK as determined by POLLS, the name of this blog is The POLL Bludger. Why is it that you refer to DATA when it suits you, but at all other times ignore it?
Try ignoring the ‘noise’ ShowsOn, it’s not worth it
O’Possum Factor
That line of yours ‘I follow th data when it leads’ certainly got demolished when you chose to ignore it when th credible data I linked was adverse to Obama Now your ever weakening defence relies on a thorough NYT journalistic Report & ABC News Report being prepared by Republican ‘talking points’….its not that your defences ar only going backwards , but additionally also Possum like upside down …perhaps indicating Possums at nite hang upside down creating wishful thinking
I was referring to the congressman from Sarah Palin’s home state and I had a brain freeze and was too lazy to look up Alaska (sorry)
Ron @ 51:
How many Republicans voted against the bill? I imagine not many. You need to provide the figures to back yourself up if you’re going to run that argument.
Aye – 140 Dems, 65 Repubs
Nay – 95 Dems, 133 Repubs
Geez. Any chance of a source? Given the tripe (?) I’ve been reading, anyone’d think it was the other way around, three times as much.
Those liberals are screwing with us for the sake of politics, etc, etc…
http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/09/house-rejects-7.html
The vote against the measure was 228 to 205, with 133 Republicans voting NO and 95 Democrats voting NO The bill was backed by 140 Democrats and 65 Republicans.
Total Democrats in House 235 Democrats & 198 Republicans Total 433
Needed 217 YES votes to pass th Bill , there ar 235 Democrats so even IF everyone of th YE voting 65 Republicans had in fact voted NO , th Democrat majority of 235 could hav passed it
Fact is only 12 of th 95 Democrats OR 12 of th 133 Republicans needed to vote YES rather than NO , and th Bill would hav passed
ie. out of 228 NO votes , only 12 needed to vote YES rather than NO
With such a SMALL extra number needed (12) to pass th Bill out of a huge number 228 who voted NO , I apportion blame to both Partys for bailout demise
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/business/30bailout.html?ex=1238299200&en=ce7084dedfebb29e&ei=5087&excamp=GGBUbailout&WT.srch=1&WT.mc_ev=click&WT.mc_id=BI-S-E-GG-NA-S-bailout
Okay, I checked my facts, and Republicans are blaming it on a devisive speech issued by Pelosi, saying she was playing politics. Which is kind of ironic when you think about it.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/bulletin/bulletin_080930.htm
Daniel B
#56
“How many Republicans voted against the bill? I imagine not many. You need to provide the figures to back yourself up if you’re going to run that argument.”
I backed my info up with official full voting figures in #60 what sort of tripe do you believe in
Settle down mate. At the point of my post (#56) you hadn’t yet done so; thankyou for sorting it. It’s very informative.
Yes, she talked so nasty to those poor Republicans that they changed their minds. What a mean speaker she is!
Daniel B
you used th word ‘tripe’ first directed at my post , that had already quoted some figures , reasonable first to ask for more info before labelling a post as tripe reely
DARIO & SHOWS ON and others still blaming Democrats ONLY:
I will demonstrate th complete absurdity of Obamabot view that Republicans ar to solely to blame for Bailout Bill’s demise
As preface th actual voting: my #60 post of full voting figures demonstates equal Republican & Democrat responsibility for bail out Bill failing by ONLY 12 votes WHEN 95 Democrats (out of 235) voted NO and 133 Republicans (out of 198) voted NO
THEREFORE if a further 11 Republicans had voted YES , result would be that th Bill WOULD STILL BE LOST/DEFEATED… BY ONE SINGLE VOTE as demonstrated :
YES total votes 216 (made of 140 Democrats AND 76 Republicans)
NO total votes 217 (made of 95 Democrats AND 122 Republicans)
And you would STILL say th blame for th lost Bill vote was solely th Republicans , yous ar logging absurdities just for th sake of it and incidently your colleagues condone it , Obamarotic nonsense
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/business/30bailout.html?ex=1238299200&en=ce7084dedfebb29e&ei=5087&excamp=GGBUbailout&WT.srch=1&WT.mc_ev=click&WT.mc_id=BI-S-E-GG-NA-S-bailout
correction: Republicans ONLY
I find it odd that American politics is different than here where Senate and HOR voting would be as a block following the party platform. In the US it seems they all have a conscience vote?
But I do see that the blame for the Bail Out not proceeding is being put on the Republicans not withstanding there were enough Democrat votes to get it over the line. The blame is also taken for granted and not many are blaming the Democrats so I assume there is some sort of commonly accepted expectation at work here.
This kinda tells me that all that what is expected is a majority of each party vote for the bill and when that doesn’t happen the one that doesn’t provide a majority is the failure. Otherwise I can’t understand what is going on.
Both sides failed as far as I can see as I would have thought it unanimous and those voting against would need to have so valide reason.
That the Republicans came out immediately on the defensive seems to indicate they are understand that it was their failure – otherwise why have your guys come out and say it was Pelosi’s nasty words that changed the 12 and so you can not blame them blame Pelosi. And what kind of excuse is that anyway.
It is all very weird.
I have to agree that while I feel sorry for Palin’s position and feel her embarassment I also feel p*ssed that the Republican’s could suddenly force someone lacking the skills to compete at this level in the spot light. Also Palin’s over self confidence? Or whatever made her accept needs to be questioned. But at the end of the the pick for VP has to be someone who can run the country.
The Sarah Palin pity party
http://www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2008/09/30/palin_pity/index1.html
TP @ 67,
Yup, you pretty much have it. I wouldn’t call it a conscience vote though. Simply that party discipline doesn’t exist the same way that it does here. Over there, the constituents come first, last and always as a motivator behind your vote(s) and the comradeship with your mates is secondary. If people are voting together in a “bloc” it is only because they all had constituents who wanted them to vote in the same way
Amigo Ronnie, this new mob of Obamabots sounds and starting to behave exactly like the other mob that has been banished to the G island. Except the older mob had more personality and fun to tangle.
Kiri – all is forgiven, pls come back.
If you don’t like it – leave.
Finns
Aww jeez that hurts!
On KR, I haven’t seen him at 101 for a while. I hope he’s OK. He’s proven to be right about the state of the economy and if he was OK, I’m pretty sure he would be letting us know.
Palin hasn’t got any better.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/couric-asks-palin-how-she_n_130642.html
Just when you thought Palin couldn’t look any more out of her depth…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRkWebP2Q0Y
I still don’t see how having Palin as Deputy President can be a huge deal after 8 years of Bush as President.
Consider what’s happened in those 8 years ltep…
The sad fact is that Palin is even less experienced that Bush was in 2000.
At the time of that election, he had been Governor of Texas (a much bigger state than Alaska in terms of population) for 6 years and had some experience in Washington as a result of his father. He was also the former CEO of the Houston Astros
Palin has been Governor of Alaska for 2 years, before that being the mayor of some random village/town. She only got a passport 2 years ago and her recent interviews on TV shows her absolute lack of knowledge on foreign affairs (although Bush was notorious for that in 2000, but those were different times)…
I have been following the debate on blame for this and I partially agree with Ron – the democrats share blame for the bailout beind defeated. However thats beside the point – the republican leadership came up with the deal and staked their reputation on it so theya re going to wear the blame for it going down. I still think a (better) deal for a bailout will be done with some amendments in the next few days. There is some urgency to do so.
Also, the real question is who caused this mess in the first place and on that there is no doubt – it was the stupid republicans. See
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/29/republican-talking-point-whack-a-mole-yet-again/
To emphasise that this economic thing isn’t over yet, there is a key date next Tuesday when a lot of hedge fund contracts may become due. They run into the trillions. See
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/business/29hedge.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
As alluded to earlier, US ABC News poll pins the blame for the bailout failing to pass on the congressional Republicans 44% – 21%
For causing the crisis in the first place they blame Bush most at 25%, then Wall St at 18%, Government 8%, Congress 8% (a few too many categories in the poll for my liking).
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1074a1Economy.pdf
Off topic: Canadian P.M Stephen Harper stole his ‘reasons for going into Iraq’ speech from a speech John Howard made 2 days earlier: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8YwJC_nBgw
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24429662-5001021,00.html
Dario
Dolly Downer wrote an article in the Tiser on Monday, which they don’t link to their website, blaming Clinton for the Crash. He argued that Clinton forced banks to provide loans to neighbourhoods without discriminating between the individual households incomes. He said this lead to a lot of Hispanics and African-Americans getting loans who couldn’t afford them (I am NOT making this up). He also blamed Bush for having too low interest rates to keep the ecnomy from going into recession. Dolly specifically said the deregulation was NOT the problenm.
A few letters to the Editor violently disagreed with him the next day.
ltep and Dario,
Hopefully, the US is better than settling for the lowest common denominator
….. Just because we’ve had rubbish for the last 8 years doesn’t mean we have to continue to settle for more rubbish going forward 
……. Obama for change 
Oh, let me guess, Clinton personally aimed a gun at the banks!?
Good to see that Dolly hasn’t lost any of his ‘charm’, or reasoning skills since he retired.
Diogenes 81
Downer’s points are precisely some of the republican talking points dismissed by Quiggan in the link in my post 78! Dolly can’t even make up his own spin. Its rubbish of course; sub-prime loans went far beyond what was required by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). The real problem was the speculative bubble in house prices which occurred in areas unrelated to the CRA.
I’ve found the Dolly article.
Here is the relevant bit, just to show I wasn’t making it up.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24415873-5013696,00.html
Ron @ 65:
What I said was, “Given the tripe I’ve been reading…”.
I.e. before I arrived and commented on your post, I’d been reading some crazy stuff. Not directed at you. Sorry that you were offended.
What! So you pay Downer to do an Op Ed piece and all he does is Google!
Well it worked for Bishop. Seems to be a common theme for the Libs.
What the hell is a “fungible asset” and a “hedge fund”? Perhaps the moderator in the VP debate could ask Palin and Biden to comment on the relevance of the following comment to the Crash.
Hehehe I would love to hear Palin try to answer that. On her recent form Saturday Night Live will soon be paying her by the word.
She will really have to watch what she says in the debate, because with the due date on many hedge contracts coming up next Tuesday, it will be very easy to say something that could be proven spectacularly wrong within a few days.
Palin attacks Biden because of his age (65), ignores the fact her running mate is 72.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/couric-asks-palin-how-she_n_130642.html
fungible just means its similar to other asset types or can be easily exchanged for something else, and a hedge fund is an investment fund that literally hedges its bets to try and reduce risk
Hedge funds are also focused on providing absolute (as opposed to relative) returns for their investors.
As a result, instead of saying that they are aiming for the ASX200 + 5% return per annum, they will instead say (hypothetically) say they are aiming for a 12% return per annum.
Not that you really needed more evidence that Fox News is a joke…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo
I especially like the last one
……. http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/30/so-who-s-winning-now.aspx
[I especially like the last one
……. http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/30/so-who-s-winning-now.aspx
I think it is even worse for McCain than that map shows:
1) I think Obama has a better chance of winning Ohio than North Carolina, which means he would net gain 5 more.
2) Obama is leading in Nevada in the three most recent polls. +5
3) Florida is still line ball, it seems that RCP is giving it to McCain based on long term trends, but the latest polls are a dead heat.
So that RCP chart puts Obama on 301, but it could just as easily be 311, or 338. Though my prediction is still 309, but I’ve forgotten exactly how I got to that figure!
RCP now has Obama at +3% in Virginia… that’s huge
ShowsOn,
Did you enter that contest for the trip to D.C? Or is your prediction of 309 a personal one, not for the contest?
I will offer to keep track of guesses for PB’rs on this topic. No earthly idea what we can use as a reward for closest guess, other than the pride of having guessed so. I will start the list with yours and mine. I said 338 btw
……. Up until McCain shot himself in the foot multiple times in the last 10 days 
I would have said something on the order of 28* but not any more. McCain thinks he had a gutful with Hurricane Gustav, he hasn’t seen the full force of Hurricane Obama yet
I’m noting the EV guess and the date at which I recorded it. First in, best dressed
……..
dont know if anyone posted this
“The 3 A.M. Call ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/opinion/29krugman.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin
“It’s 3 a.m., a few months into 2009, and the phone in the White House rings. Several big hedge funds are about to fail, says the voice on the line, and there’s likely to be chaos when the market opens. Whom do you trust to take that call?”
bye bye mccain
I intend to enter, but don’t we also have to predict how many popular votes the winner will get? I have no idea how to do that other than just taking a wild guess! Bush got about 120 million last time, I think Obama will get more than that.
Doh! I mean the TOTAL vote was about 120 million last time.
Re 98,
Lets add a tie breaker (to make it fair to anyone who wants to get in and wasn’t in quickly) for those on the same correct guess.
1. Predict the state that puts him over the top based upon the CNN count/call on election night / election Wednesday day for us [ as CNN is the station I will watch for election returns ] [ other networks might put him over the top with a different state ]
2. Will Obama take Missouri?
If we need a tiebreaker, I’ll use #1. Won’t use #2 unless we need it for Q1.
- Colorado gets my vote
- He won’t take Missouri
Yes ShowsOn @ 100, we need to predict the popular votes for that contest. That is a crapshoot, needle in a haystack ….. I punted and said the same number as GB got in 2004
…..
For purposes of what I suggested here, I’m only interested in the EV total and the two tiebreaker questions …..
104 Dario,
I need an EV total for Obama as well ….. Cheers
Dario, sorry that should read 103, but you know what i meant … trying to parallel process too many things here at once, it is school holidays and I’ve got my kids at home
Forgot what I entered in that comp! I think it was 286 EVs
By ‘him’ who are you referring to? Or are we just presuming a particular candidate has it in the bag and working from there?
ltep, we are all presuming an Obama win, but if you want to go out on the limb and say a McCain win, please give
1. McCain’s winning EV total
2. What state will put the winner [in this instance, McCain] over the top?
3. Will Obama take Missouri?
juliem
obama 326
missouri yes …maybe (too early yet)
110 Gusface,
Please also give the state you believe will put Obama over the top. I’ll be watching the CNN returns on that Wednesday so will use their count to answer this question. (so if someone else’s count has a different state that puts him over the top, just so that we are all clear on that)
juliem@ 109:
I’ve used Intrade as my guide and so I’ll go Obama : 338 / McCain :200.
As for what state will get him over the line this may seem a silly question, but how are the votes counted.? Doesn’t it depend on how many people voted, the different time zones.? I wouldn’t have a clue about what state puts him over the line.
Obama 306
North Carolina
Missouri no (Dem pick ups: IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, NC). I’m guessing that the economic crisis will hit Nevada to make them swing behind Obama but will hold Florida for McCain.
Can someone explain to me why people would support Obama over McCain on economic issues?
Why on earth would any American want someone who’s never drafted a single bill in his life and been in the Senate for less than 1 term to run the American economy over McCain??
112,
The staff on CNN will call each state as soon as enough results come in that they can do that. I will post a link here for a map with time zones so that you can see which states are in which time zones. They can’t call a result until the polls have closed in that state, so for example, NY will most likely be called BEFORE the polls in Arizona are closed because NY is 2 hours ahead of Arizona. That might give you some idea. They call results though in real time so it is likely that the state that puts him over the top will be one in the Mountain time zone (Colorado for example) or Pacific time zone (California for example) UNLESS a state like Florida or Ohio (in the eastern time zone) is really close and they can’t call it for some hours after the polls have closed. SO could be anything
http://www.worldtimezone.com/time-usa12.php
Further to 116,
Arizona does NOT do DST, so when the USA changes time @ 2am the last Sunday morning in October, Arizona will revert back to Mountain time. It only goes with Pacific time when it is summer time ……. Ditto for extreme NW Indiana, they are on time with Chicago in the summer months and then when it gets cold, they go back with the rest of the state of Indiana ……
Glen, what are you doing on this thread?
……
ltep, because McCain is an outright liar. I’m trying to find the link to a video I saw earlier today where McCain is saying he is for less deregulation and on the very same day told a rally we need more govt regulation.
Sorry, but this guy has leaves Howard for dead in the lying dept.
Maybe because McCain has admitted that he doesn’t know much about economics.
Perhaps because McCain has admitted he knows nothing about economics, and a Republican President was in charge of this mess
Dario but what does Obama know about economics??
That if he writes another memoir he’ll get another 100million?
Yeah, that too
There are only two real choices in this election Glen. He doesn’t need to be a Professor of economics when the guy he is running against knows zilch.
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/26/political-pictures-abraham-lincoln-illinois-senator/
See you cannot answer the question because neither of them are economic gurus are they?
So when you trash McCain on economics you also must acknowledge that Obama is just as much if not more of an economic novice than McCain is.
What’s worse handing over the US to a 1 term Senator or someone who’s been in there for nearly 3 decades???
Obama is a novice on economics, it’s just that the media seem to want to blame the Republicans for everything even though there is a Democratic Congress in power in the Senate and HoR.
He isn’t motivated by a philosophy that says regulation is bad, UNTIL you need the government to step in and pay $700 billion to bail out the private sector. He understands that SOME regulation is necessary to make capitalism work properly.
During the debate last Saturday (our time) McCain essentially still was using Reagan talking points ‘Government is the problem’, well hello, Wall Street had just gone to the GOVERNMENT to try to fix its problems! So how can Government be the problem ALL of the time?
It just made McCain sound like a hypocrite – government IS the problem, but not when it has to hand over $700 billion to wall street. That just doesn’t make sense.
polyquats and look what happened the South seceeded after his election!
You don’t need to be an economic guru to be elected President – Look at Bush and Reagan for example.
Hang on a second, I thought McCain was the ANTI Washington / outside / Maverick candidate! I guess that was just spin…
Oh no! Not again THE MEDIA are controlling our minds again! I think it is so funny that right wingers revert to this MARXIST media theory to try to back up their arguments!
The problem Glen is that THE AMERICAN PUBLIC seem to be blaming the economic crisis primarily on George Bush, Wall Street (which is seen as a Republican institution), and REPUBLICANS in congress. Whether it makes sense or not, McCain is getting swept away in this anti-Republican sentiment.
HAHHAHAHAH! So are you proposing that if Obama wins the U.S. will have another civil war?
Utter BS Glen. The Republicans have had control of Congress for 12 of the last 14 years, and the Whitehouse for the last 8. That’s where the damage was done… and the American voters see it that way, whether you like it or not.
Adam has sent Glen in to take charge for awhile …… just let Glen go through to the keeper
Of course not that would be stupid i merely posit that electing inexperienced people into a demanding job can cause more harm than good.
Bull Butter Dario the Democrats have controlled it for 2 years and did nothing to warn the american people about this crisis or do anything to stop it, and Pelosi couldnt even get 10 of the 93 democrats who voted against it to switch HA!
Both sides are to blame here!
I don’t think and I hope anybody expects the President to make economic decisions based on their own abilities – otherwise McCain has already disqualified himself with the admission he doesn’t do economics. And if you seen him in an interview being questioned on economic issues in the past you would concur with his self assessment.
During this campaign McCain has been highly erratic when talking on economic issues but I suspect that is not because of gross stupidity but because he was looking for political wedges.
The article posted by Gusface that talked about this issue highlights the problem quite well – look at the team of economic advisers each side has chosen then it will become patently obvious that McCain’s side of the street is a dangerous one.
Obama’s performance so far must be the one that instills the greater confidence – no panic, no eratic behaviour, cooly addressing the fundamental issues and deferring to the experts to provide possible solutions before jumping emotionally on one idea.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/opinion/29krugman.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin
Why don’t you just cut and paste Ron’s posts!
The point is not who is ACTUALLY to blame, it is who the American public THINKS is to blame, and if you believe the polls, that is Bush, Wall Street, and Republicans roughly in that order.
That is a net negative for McCain, because 2 weeks ago he said the economy was fundamentally strong, and a month before that his economics adviser was calling Americans whiners, and saying that the economy was not headed for a recession.
In the debate he shot himself in the foot by repeating the Republican mantra that Government IS the problem, even though as the debate was on THE GOVERNMENT was trying to figure out a way to fix it.
Get real, the problem is 2/3 of Republicans voted against it, compared to 2/5 of Democrats! Which is why they are being blamed for both causing and refusing the fix the mess.
Glen see McCain the liar in action…! HAHAHAHA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOvJ6GUjUJ0
Are you a Sarah Palin fan?
Glen, clearly you know zero about the US. Bush is President and has veto over anything the Dems in Congress can pass.
This was Bush’s bill and the Republicans couldn’t even get 10 of the 133 Republicans who opposed it to switch HA!
Go back to the other thread Glen, you are out of your depth here.
If Obama wins, and employs the same economic advisers Clinton had then the problem will be fixed. Clinton went from a huge deficit to a surplus by raising taxes on the wealthy, and cutting the defence budget by a few percent. Whoever wins will have to do the same, a Democratic President with a Democratic congress has a better chance of doing that sooner.
Why exactly are people trying to shut out dissenting voices?
OMG another shocker
…… [ Asked what newspapers and magazines she reads, Palin - a journalism major in college - could not name one publication.
"I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media," she said at first. Couric responded, "What, specifically?"
"Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years."
"Can you name a few?"
"I have a vast variety of source where we get our news," Palin said. "Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, 'wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?' Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html ]
Shut up ltep
Oh cmon just because he’s a good speaker doesnt mean he’ll do a good job on economics what rubbish!
Remember folks let it go through to the keeper, you don’t have to swing at Glen’s airballs ………
ShowsOn, I’ve told you once before not to do this. The message it imparts is: “I am laughing very loudly right into your face”. If you did this in real life, you’d get beaten up.
ltep, with the exception of maybe one or two posters who get to vote in the US election, the debates here are basically meaningless to the outcome. But it doesn’t mean that people can’t have an opinion, and disagree with other posters.
When the Americans go around saying that they are electing the “leader of the free world” as their president, ( no offence meant juliem ) and I don’t get a vote, I’m certainly going to exercise my free speech and debate who I want to see as President.
And if people want to elect idiots like McCain and Palin, then as citizens of the free world we have the right to argue against it.
Well at the very least the U.S. would have a President who is a good speaker, which is more than they’ve got now.
Glen, explain to me how your Marxist theory of the media results in brainwashing and conformity.
William, the bold laughing was me. I apologise wholeheartedly. Won’t happen again.
Sondeo, ShowsOn did it too in 130 – and in his case he was directing it at another commenter, whereas you could argue you’re directing it at McCain, which is a different matter.
Sondeo,
I don’t take offense. I’ve considered myself emotionally and in every way an Aussie since I married my husband in 1996. I probably whinge about the Americans as much as any of you do since I don’t look at myself from that set of rose coloured glasses any more. While I am an American by birth so therefore get the right to vote in the election, that is my only real connection at any level to the US. I’ve still got relatives there but if we want to see each other, then they come here. No worries
. Because I grew up there though, that gives me a bit more knowledge than those of you who are Aussie by birth. Did you have an answer for 1. which state will give Obama the votes he needs to win on Election night and 2. will he win Missouri?
I don’t understand how American governments work. How come parties don’t vote as whole following a party platform? ie if the party is in favour of the bail out then all follow.
This is obviously not how it works in the states.
It is glaringly obvious to me that their were plenty of spare votes on both sides to put the bail out package over the line. However there is the general view and it is reinforced by the defensiveness of the Republicans that the failure is their fault.
I mean why did they (Republicans) make an issue of 12 changing sides because of Pelosi’s comments if they didn’t accept that it was their fault the bail out didn’t go through? You think they would have pointed immediately to the number of Democrats who voted in the negative.
All very confusing.
We all knowthat the US presidential system is not democratic and contrary to popular opinion the president of the US is not directly elected. The US college system has a number of serious inbuilt flaws in the system. Whilst each of the states has some form of resemblance of proportionality between each of the states the electoral system used”First past the post” does not reflect the popular vote. The highest polling party secures 100% of the state delegates that intrum will elect the president That party can win the state representation by as little as 34% -40%of the vote.
Third party candidates, such as Ralph Nader run the risk of being a spoiler. Taking votes away from a party that otherwise would be won by the democrats or the republican party.
I am not sure where I read it but there was also a suggestion that the electoral college could find itself in a tied situation with each of the two main parties holding the same number of votes. It all boils down to the swinging seats, as with Australia’s lower house electorates. But the problem is magnified in that the winning candidate can be elected on a minority of votes. Coulod we see a repeat of the 2000 US Presidential elections in 2008?
Given that only 40% of the US population participate in presidential elections the US president could be determined by 16% of US citizens. This is not0t what I call a democratic state.
TP: a) Because the government doesn’t stand and fall on party discipline in the legislature; b) Because the legislators don’t depend on the party machine for their preselection.
It’s usually over 60% of the voting age population that vote
juliem @ 150: I gave a figure for the EV’s but not for what state takes him over the line.
As I’m only guessing, and the sheep station is not on the line, I’d say that he won’t win Missouri, and the state that takes him over the line will be Colorado
Given that the Presidential election will be decided on a handful of swing states and that the highest polling candidates wins 100% of the delegates to what extent can we rely on a poll of all voters? Very little I would say. You really need to look at each of the swinging states and then determine the out come based on the breakdown of the poll. In more or less the way they did the break down of the pre-selection (primary) ballot for the democrates.
After Palin's dramatic dive in the polls over these last few weeks, McCain staffers are lamenting their decision to not proceed with their first VP choice, Big Bird.
"Big Bird was our number one pick for quite some time," a McCain advisor admitted yesterday, while shaking his head in regret. ]
http://www.236.com/blog/w/colin_nissan/mccain_camp_regrets_not_going_9203.php
156, thanks, Sondeo
Dario when I looked at the 2000 Vote only 40% of the population votes. Maybe 60% is the number that have enrolled to vote. Unlike in Australia voting is not compulsory in the US. Also with First past the post many candidates are elected with less then 50% of the vote. At a cost of billions of dollars to mount a campaign one has to wonder of the US presidential system is worth keeping. Give me a Parliamentary system any day.
160, I am with you all the way. Parliamentary system is a good one and even moreso, mandatory voting ….. But that having been said, I shudder to think how much uglier the WH could get than GB if the US had mandatory voting. Can you imagine the pain and damage of millions and millions of donkey votes? It is a shocker given the mentality of some of the people in parts of the USA [not highly educated, very easily led by a shifty Republican operating machine, etc.]. Could be really really bad and make GB look like a picnic. No, now that I’ve had a taste of compulsory voting in Australia, I think that the world should be glad that the US does NOT have it
European Presidential system have a constitutional requirement that 50% of those entitled vote MUST vote and the winning candidate MUST also receive 50% or more votes. i9f lessthen 50% ofvopters particpate then the elction fails. If no candidate has 50% or more there is a run-off electionn between the two highest polling candidates. (Two round voting system). A total waste of money of course when a preferential ‘Instant Run-off” ballot can produce the same outcome with one round of voting at half the cost of the two round system. As to the US College system that is a joke. Made worst by the fact that less then 51% of voters can elect 100% of the delegates.
Or what about a hybrid system where we vote for the head of government by popular election, and then they pick their ministers from either in or outside of the legislature.
If you have proportional representation then it would be easy for people in the legislature to resign and become ministers without having to hold by-elections (you just pick the next person on the party ticket to fill the vacancy)
Of course this means the head of government could pick people from business, unions, academy etc who DON’T come from the legislature.
I think the system we have where the legislature and executive are combined is silly. It means you get hack politicians who just vote the party line instead of thinking about issues for themselves. Whereas hack politicians in the U.S. only last for a short period if they can’t explain why they PERSONALLY accomplished during their term.
161… and to think they rule the world. I am begining to hope that god does exist and that s/he will intervene to stop those that use his name under false intentions. It is scared to think what the outcome might be. If you want to know more about the US electorate just google Chaser Why Americans are so stupid on your tube.
The turnout was 51% in 2000, and 57% in 2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election
I think it is best when members of the cabinet are appointed from the parliamentary representations. Westminster style.
Why so? I think you could find better people if everyone in the whole country is a potential minister.
dario 51 % of what? Entitled to enroll or enrolled. What was the state breakdown/lowest wining vote %… How often does the end result not reflect the popular vote. Its a hit and miss system
Voting Age Population, i.e. Entitled to enroll
About 3 times in over 50 elections.
But anyway, compulsory voting (or really, compulsory attendance) is absurd. The State shouldn’t be able to force people to go and vote if they don’t want to. Again, I think the U.S. system is better. It would be even better if they had a national electoral commission that organised voting and redistributions!
Represntative mandate. and more importantly why should a minster have to resign his representaive mandate to full their ministerial role. WestMinster is one of the best things the British gave Australia/Candida/New Zealand/India
Realistically we don’t have compulsary voting as such, only compulsary attendance on polling day. You can rock up to a polling booth, get your name marked off and hand your blank voting slips to an official to be put in the ballot box.
shows on: Do You support the wearing of seat belts? A voter can always opt to cast an infomal vote. The reason behind the compuslory voting was to ensuire that voters were not intimidated to not vote as was the case in Florida USA. It is an obligation in the same way we are forced/obliged to pay taxes.
Why is this an issue? If someone decides not to go and vote than they have given up their right to be represented. If they go and vote, then they are passing on that to their the person they want to represent them.
To take on a different representative role, that of executive government
We don’t have a full Westminster system, because we have a Senate. Our system is a hybrid of the U.K. and U.S. systems, that inherently promotes some hack politicians – to make up the numbers – at the expensive of more talented politicians.
It also means we have a compulsory preferential system to ensure stable government which makes the House less representative of the nation as a whole (no Greens in the current parliament), when the lower house would be more representative if it was elected by proportional representation, but you could only do that and ensure stable government if you removed the executive from the legislature.
I think cricket was a more important thing that the British gave us.
This isn’t a good analogy because voting has nothing to do with personal safety.
I pointed this out myself – we have compulsory ATTENDANCE – but people think it means compulsory VOTING. My point was that the State shouldn’t be able to compel anyone to vote if that person doesn’t want to. The reason wearing a seat belt is law is because it aids road safety, but what does compulsory voting aid? My guess is it saves them money because they don’t have to spend money simply motivating people to vote. But that is for the benefit of political parties, which they should have to do themselves.
So instead they are intimated by teh State to vote? Why should voting be an issue based around state intimidation?
We pay taxes because that is the cot of building a fair society. But how can you say the same of forcing people to go and vote? What benefit does this have that letting people choose doesn’t?
One down side of compulsory attendance is that it means elections are often decided by people that don’t really care much about who they vote for, and by people who don’t pay much attention to the issues. It seems to me that that is a very heavy burden on all the people who DO pay attention and who are motivated to vote.
A thought from out of left field regarding the election process here in Australia and I realise that this particular site is probably not the correct one to bring it up as we are talking about the US Pesidential elections. Any thoughts on doing away with the pre-selection process for each party and allowing us the people select the person we want to represent the party at a general election. Let any number of people (or perhaps restrict it to say four for each party) stand for election. Still have compulsory and preferential voting. Using this, candidates like say Christopher Pyne or Belinda Neal who are not exactly loved by their electorate would find it very hard to get themselves elected. One of the drawbacks is that it would probably take a fortnight or so before the result of an election was known particulary in the case of a close election. At least this way we get to say who we want to represent us and not the person chosen by the factions of the parties.
Spot on.
Glen – remember our discussions last year about perceptions equaling reality in politics?
This is another clear example of a situation where (in factual terms) both sides are to blame for the failure of the bailout/rescue bill to pass. However, the perception has already formed in the US (see the ABC poll that has been previously referred to) that it was the Republicans to blame for its failure to pass.
The clear consequence of this (and it is already happening) is that the Republicans’ economic credibility (and this includes McCain) will continue to fall, while the Democrats are increasingly being seen as the party of economic responsibility (or Wall St, depending on which commentator you prefer). The upshot of this is that the longer the economy dominates the headlines, the worse McCain fares against Obama…
P.S. Good to see you back on the US thread
Colorado won’t take Obama over the line. If it did, that would mean he would have to end up with over 350 electoral votes, since he’s going to get 77 EVs out of Hawaii, Washington, Oregon and California simultaneously when those states close polling 4 hours after first results start coming through and 2 hours after Colorado closes. Those last four states will take him over the threshold at the same time, in particular California.
For the record, my prediction is that Obama will win with 311 EVs to 238, will win Ohio and Virginia, but lose Missouri, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina. Probaby win by 4 points, 50-46, with Barr and Nader grabbing the other 4%.
Vanishing voters – voter purges
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4490786n
Al,
Thanks for that
…. have it written down here. For the record, Hawaii is 2 hours behind California, Alaska is one hour behind California. So those 2 states stretch the time zones to 4 (CONUS {Continental United States}) + 1 (Alaska) + 1 (Hawaii).
Do you have a guess as to which state will put Obama on top? So far, I’ve had Colorado and North Carolina as the guesses.
TP: @ 179. Thats really scary.
Funny that McCain released two ads one attacking Obama for the passage of bail out and another for the failure of passage of the bail out.
FINNS
“Amigo Ronnie, this new mob of Obamabots sounds and starting to behave exactly like the other mob that has been banished to the G island. Except the older mob had more personality and fun to tangle”
A distinction Amigo between “worser” and “even worser” Yes Obamarotic elitist & messiahic in Obama traits identical although Gilligans trashed tuth & fact whereas this has now been extended to actualy post mistruth as truth
Although Bailout Bill blame on this site mostly all Republicans ar to blame therefore is old style messiahic ignorance of actual HoR votes cast
Mathematics make there ALL Republican blame childish at best By example IF another 11 Republicans had voted YES , then Bill loses by a single one vote….with 216 Cngressmen saying YES and 217 Congressmen saying NO….and of th 217 NO’s there ar 95 Democrats and 122 Republicans Now which of those 217 ar th naughty one whose solitary vote IN FACT then would hav made a YES vote…objective naswer is any of those 217 …meaning either Party …meaning either Party is to blame
‘Spin’ number one here : th obamabots having easily lost there flawed argument that Republics were only to blame on reality maths didn’t admit that , but instead changed th “narrative” , Obamabots narrative then changed to ..oh its what polls say who is to blame , but does mean we can not expose th fact th polls ar a product of both flawed perception & misinformation via Media etc and that in fact both Partys REELY ar to blame , of course not but “narrative” is self denial Obama/Democrats share blame (notice a minescule % of Obama supporters here actualy do see its joint responsibility
Spin number two here : its was “Paulsons” plan and it was flawed Nonsense , it was a 3 page Plan stating obvious problem of Bailout needed AND an opening gambit of authority…no details , no ioversite, no criteria , no ‘parachute severage pay protections , no taxpayer issues , no house price stabilisation matters etc etc IT COULD NOT BE , it was Democrat controlled Congress responsibilty to enact th Legisaltion with these matters WITH compromise/negotiations with minority Republicans if Democrats chose to or they could av paased there own Democrat only Bill Obviously both politics & commonsense for Nations good dictated th former Therefore Paulsons not to blame…just th 433 Republicans & Democrats in Hor then Democrat controlled Senate were and ar responsible
Spin number three : cause of financial crisis is all Republicans Nonsense constitutionally th HoR & Senate COULD hav enacted there own Legisaltion at ANY time in last 8 years for example…on better ‘regulation’ , standards , reporting auditing , disclosure & financial products like sub prime True th POTUS has some responsibility & obviously has an influence & must share some blame (& thats dim wit Bush a Republican) but constitutionally Congress holds th purse strings & legislation powers to enact AND DID NOT DO SO for at least last 8 years when bubble gum started
Who were in control of HoR & Senate , well Democrats (last 2 years WHEN problems were more clearly arising & warning alerts were given) vs Republicans (preceding 6 years , so Republcians had 75% of time of last 8 years BUT that is diminished objectively by less warnings/alerts of sub prime etc then
How do you weiht that ? Well its not 75% Republican to 25% Democrat…its either 60/40 to 50/50 but not under 50/50 and either way it supports my view USA 433 HoR & 100 Senate (total 533) of Republcians & Democrats ar either eqaully rsponsible for Wall Street ruins or if not 50/50 close enough that to point blame one way is pedantic
My shared responsibilty ‘blame’ assessment is non ‘oz’ centric but US-centric and my shared asesment is also supported by & consistent by th nature of US politcs th Congress …pork barrelling by all , Lobbyists by all , “networking” by all , “interest groups” by all vs unlike ‘oz’ there politcan do not get electd just because they hav a Labor or Liberal bdge on , above ar often just as powerful & often more so
We’ve got 7 people so far giving their predictions for the EV vote in the election. If anyone else wants in on this, just post your guesses and I’ll add them into my spreadsheet. Ditto anyone who wants to change guesses. I’ll keep collecting them and will accept changes up until 10pm Tuesday November 4th. No official prizes or anything other than bragging rights. Remember tie breaker questions – 1. State that puts Obama over the top (270) based upon CNN’s Election Returns (program I will watch) and 2. Will Obama win Missouri?
I’ve got a map in which I can zero out each state for EV votes and then add them in one at a time. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory Zero out all of the states and then add them back in one at a time. If you give Obama the following from east to west across the first two time zones (eastern and central) – Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Mass., Rhode Island, Conn., New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland, D.C, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Missouri that gives Obama 268. The next lot of states to close will be those in the mountain time zone. Out of the Mountain time zone, the only ones he is expected to get will be Colorado and New Mexico I believe. Thus, the guesses of Colorado aren’t that bad
….. unless you think, as does one of us, that North Carolina will come in later than expected because of a close count 
. If you add the expected ones on the West coast of California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii and toss in Nevada for good measure, that is 364 with Colorado or New Mexico probably putting him over the top.
Juliem,
Check out polling closing times at the Green Papers for 4 November. Not everything closes at the same local time. For example, Colorado closes at 7 MST, while New York closes at 9 EST, so they’ll both close at the same time.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=c
California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii all close at the same time (0400 UTC, or 11pm Eastern in America). I reckon all four of those will be called as soon as voting finishes based on exit polling, and their simultaneous calling will take Obama over the top. Alaska’s 3 EVs, which closes an hour later, won’t matter. By that stage, the election will be over, although if McCain does dump Palin they may fall into Obama’s column because of a favourite daughter backlash.
The closing time of a poll doesn’t mean so much if the vote is close in a state. For example, California could be ‘called’ for Obama after less 20% of the vote is counted, while Colorado could go down to the wire and be called much, much later.
Thanks, Al, you are one up on me
…. thats what happens when I assume …. thanks 
I know, Dario, well and truely understand that. That was why I asked people for their best guess
…….. (and that is all it is is a guess, this is just something fun)
Al @ 186,
Thanks so VERY much for that cool link, I’ve bookmarked it
……
Of course Swing Lowe, i agree and there is nothing the Republicans can do about the perception of them failing the economy. Still i think they arent the only people to blame, the Democrats must also take some of the blame too. They’re all at fault here.
By the way, is anybody taking a look at the Congressional, Senate and Governorship elections in 2008??? Any chance of the Democrats gaining the Senate by a comfortable margin??? Or will the Republicans hold tough?
There is more than just the Presidential poll to discuss here folks
I take it you mean getting a veto-busting majority, as they already hold the senate…
Of course Republicans aren’t just to blame, but the person who is going to get more blame on election day will be John McCain.
He couldn’t even name a time that he tightened a regulation! Which helps Obama build the argument that he is simply a deregulator, irrespective of the benefits of the regulation. McCain’s argument is still “Government is the problem”, even though we are in a period when we need the government to fix a critical problem. McCain’s argument just doesn’t fit with the time.
Democrats are likely to get about 56 or 57 in the Senate with an outside chance of 60. If they get 60 then they can block filibusters, which would mean the U.S. would get a universal health care plan of some description.
Intriguing – Eastern Indiana and Kentucky are the first “states” to close (at 1800 EST)
Unfortunately, no calls will be made until after the voters in the western parts of those states finish voting at 1900 EST, in order to avoid a Florida 2000-mess again.
From the order, the first states to get called will almost certainly be Vermont (D), South Carolina (R), Kentucky (R) and (probably) Georgia (R), all of which close at 1900 EST. The others (VA, FL and IN) are likely to be toss-ups…
I take it conservative posters here “worried” about Obamas single term in the Senate compared to McCain must prefer Rudd to Turnbull, given Turnbull’s lack of experience?? On the McCain experience analogy, I suppose they would like Wilson Tuckey as leader of the Opposition? He’s a straight shooter….
Dario no they dont they rely on Liberman
Isn’t there system completely nuts in this way! They actually run all these different state elections that add up to a federal election, rather than actually running a federal election from a federal agency that sets voting standards (i.e. ONE type of ballot for the entire country).
Exactly Dario. For the “safe” states though, most of the networks will call based on exit polling. If they are a little bit unsure of their exit polling, they will wait till a few percent are counted, and if it is showing the same trends as their exit polling, then they will call it. For this very reason, expect McCain to open up an early lead (40-60 EVs) as most of the early “safe” states are Republican.
Glen… I reckon Dems will control the Senate, but not reach a filibuster proof majority. Probably about 55-56. At least they can then tell Lieberman to stick it. Obama’s ground-game strategy may reap bigger dividends than that for the Dems though, creating a down-ticket effect by getting people who don’t normally vote to the booths.
House-wise, the Dems will still have a comfortable margin.
Are you sure? I thought the Democrats currently have 51 Senators if you include Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, who are actually both independents.
Democrats are currently on 51 Senate seats (including Liebermann and Sanders). Gains are expected in VA, NM, CO and NH (although NH has tightened recently). Dems are also polling well in AK and NC. There are toss-up races in MN and OR, whilst Republicans are favoured but still vulnerable in KY, MS (Wicker) and (if you believe the poll below) GA.
No Democrat incumbent is in a toss-up race, although both the LA and NJ races aren’t locks yet.
Georgia Senate poll:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b1b8098c-b5fc-4f44-8be3-0d54f3e03476
Newish Presidential polls out by Survey USA:
Ohio: McCain +1 (49-48)
Indiana: McCain +3 (48-45)
New Jersey: Obama +10 (52-42)
Yes. Glen, is correct that they have to rely on Lieberman to vote on things (as they do on all the Dem senators… it isn’t like Australia where votes are all along party lines) but Lieberman and Sanders caucus with the Dems giving them ‘control’
What are the odds on a hung EV… 50/50? One site I read claimed that that was a real possibility. To what extent does the national poll reflect then crucial key swing states?
This seems to be the most optimistic senate estimation – 58:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Sep30-s.html
Pollster.com says 54, fivethirtyeight.com says, 56.
Remember, it’s the Vice President of the U.S. who is the President of the Senate. He is the person that goes through and counts all the electoral college votes.
I like the idea of seeing Dick Cheney going through the lengthy procedure of certifying an Obama presidential win.
So basically they needed those two independents so that all the Committee chairs are Democrats? The crazy thing is Sanders is so left wing, he would be like Bob Brown, yet he was elected by a state that usually only elects Republican senators!
I love the fact their politicians don’t vote the party line! I wish we had that here.
I think all eyes should be on Ohio, if Obama wins it then McCain is a goner.
No Republican has won without it, if I were Obama id be campaigning there alot.
ShowsOn @ 197: a federal electoral authority wouldn’t solve the problem of polls on the west coast closing later than the east. Australian election outcomes are often known before the polls close in WA, at least when daylight saving made the time difference three hours rather than two.
I’d say the chance of that is pretty slim now. But on the previous thread we discussed the fact that if the E.C. vote is tied, Obama would still probably be elected thanks to a majority of state delegations in the House.
Obviously the polls are much closer in the swing states, but Obama now has leads in all the Kerry states, plus Indiana, New Mexico, and Colorado. He is also tied in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Indiana, which are all crucial for a McCain win. On top of those, he is very close in Missouri and North Carolina. Not even Clinton won North Carolina, so if Obama is close there, then he must be doing very well.
Correct
Looking at the senate map (thanks for that) it shows that there is3-4 states that are line ball. How often does the Senate distribution vary from the Presidential college count? Is the US Senate a good guide for the outcome of a presidential vote when looking at the swing sate?
The site I read gave asenario that if the vote was tied and remained tied Nacy would become caretaker President. Is that true?
SwingLowe, I’ve not examined the Senate seats but it looks as if you have
….. what is Dole up against in NC? I thought I read about a week or two ago that her seat was also in danger of falling to the Democrats ……
Ohio still reminds me of Kent State.
I meant relative to the local time. There is a huge variation depending on which state you are voting in. Some states the polls close at 6 PM local time (Indiana, Hawaii, Kentucky) while others close as late as 9 PM (New York, Rhode Island, North Dakota) for their local time, and then there are all sorts of times between those extremes.
I just thought that uniformity would limit confusion, even though the various time zones mean people are actually voting at different times. I guess in New York it NEEDS to close late because millions of people live there.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=c
I don’t think so because U.S. politicians basically campaign first as themselves, and second as their party. Some people have speculated that a popular Democrat who is running for the Senate for the first time is one reason why Obama is leading in Colorado. So there are certain “coat tail” effects that may work either way.
But just because the Democrats are going to win some Senate seats in the deep south won’t mean Obama will win there.
I don’t think so. The Senate would vote on who becomes V.P., Biden would win and become acting President. Then the House keeps voting until inauguration day until they come up with a winner. If they can’t Biden becomes President.
(I am assuming the Democrats keep their majority)
Ruawake,
For Michigan folks, all Ohio is good for is a place that you have to drive through to get to Florida
……..
On the issue of closing time for polling booths, remember that election day is a normal working day. That would produce many issues which we don’t experience in Australia where they are all on Saturdays. Even then, there is always a rush before 6 pm close.
Juliem,
Dole’s up against it in North Carolina. While she had strong polling figures earlier this year, the latest non-party aligned polls all show Democrat Kay Hagan in the lead. The Dems are currently pounding her on spending hardly any time in North Carolina the past few years.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nc/08-nc-sen-ge-dvh.php
Is Hillary up for election?
No she was re-elected easily in 2006.
thats right she was elected in 2000
Wow one bit of positive Iraq news actually being reported for once!
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24431454-5005961,00.html
Deaths fall in Iraq
“THE number of civilians killed in Iraq last month more than halved to 359 compared to a year ago, Iraqi Government figures showed, and the number of US troops killed in action also fell dramatically.
US combat deaths fell to eight in September, down from 12 last month and vastly reduced from 43 in September last year, statistics from independent website http://www.icasualites.org showed.
Violence in Iraq has fallen to around four-year lows in recent months, but militants have still been capable of large-scale attacks.”
Good news for McCain!
To be frank I think the economy is pretty much going to be the only issue for this election
“Only” 359 deaths in a month, good news? What a perverse world we live in.
What effect if any will radar Nader have as a third candidate. I recall the Ross p. challenge. At least Ross was included in the debate.
What Is the deal if Obama suffers a pre poll Kennedy strike from Grassy Knoll as some extremists has suggested? Is the election postponed or does the College decide?
It seems tiny, he is only on 2 or 3% of the national vote.
Perot was included int he debates because his polling was very strong, in the high teens from memory.
The Democratic Party (the national comittee) has a procedure for selecting a new candidate. They can just do a vote from all Congressional Democrats, or they can call for a new convention. So all of the same delegates reconvene to decide.
If it is REALLY close to election day, the Congress can vote to delay the election.
Palin cant name a single newspaper she reads
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html
RCP is currently projecting 7 gains for the Dems in the Senate (up to 58):
VA NH NM CO AK OR NC
I think we should be careful with using the term “blame” regarding the failed bailout. Some of the Repugs are claiming “credit” for the failure. Tomorrow, Congress will probably pass another version with a few amendments. Will the Democrats then be given “credit” for it passing?
and dont u love how the conservatives like Glen trumpet the no of deaths as a great thing when they have spent the last 5 years disputing the death count
Dio – I’m with you.
The only “Blame” that needs to be thrown ought to land right at the grubby little feet of that hack Alan Greenspan.
Funny isnt it – I’ve been saying for years that Greenspan is…
a)useless
and
b)his legacy will all end very badly
…(as have plenty of others mind you), but until very recently, to say such a thing was to be treated as a heretic as those f***tards of the Dow 36000 school of piffle held court. Yet now – well, it’s the new black… Daaaahrling.
The mind boggles sometimes at how quickly a group of lickspittles can change their spots.
I couldn’t believe this clip when I first saw it. McCain says talking about Congress and he actually says “If I were a dictator, which I always aspire to be….”
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=videonetwork&maven_playerId=immersiveplayer&maven_referralPlaylistId=b959b1ca832e44b7543c0c1d3b9b6ef23903c7fc&maven_referralObject=873470075
I got the original link from here…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/1/53121/1281/967/616354
Not as bad as Bush saying “This would be an easier job if it was a dictatorship; assuming I was the dictator.”
I have to admit that I hadn’t heard that about Bush before.
For these guys to be thinking it is scary stuff ShowsOn.
New Quinnpac poll with some very skewed numbers…
FL: Obama +8
OH: Obama +8
PA: Obama +15
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081001/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_battlegrounds;_ylt=AuuucKeqKT7bzY645kVNcVOyFz4D
These guys seem to have a pretty strong opinion about who’s to blame.
http://www.dependablerenegade.com/dependable_renegade/2008/09/yeah-that-prett.html
Possum
People who deny observable reality are often not guilty of “wishful thinking”. It’s often a hard-wired subconscious act. Kurt Vonnegut likens magical thinking to a cuckoo clock from Hell. The machinery works perfectly in turning the wheel and keeping time but there are teeth missing, which are simple, obvious truths accessible even to a ten year old. When the chain works on a gear with a group of teeth missing, the clock skips ahead for a few minutes, then keeps perfect time until more missing teeth are reached.
Some people are born missing groups of gear teeth, some have them willfully filed off by others or themselves.
Surely not!
Quinnipiac is one of the highly rated polls but something has to be wrong with those, unless they’ve changed their weightings. I’m gonna ignore them until we get some different polls in those states.
There’s a new Intrade market on whether or not Obama’s Presidential Intrade market will increase following the V.P. debate. It is currently on 65%. His presidential market is 64.9, which means it is up 7.4% in the last 2 days.
yes indeed. Both POTUS candidates are dud. So are the VP candidates. And the best candidate is not on the ticket. Pity the Americans. Pity the World.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/its-not-much-of-a-choice-for-americans-come-november-4-20080930-4r5x.html?page=-1
It looks overcooked from one perspective.
From another – the polls are simply catching up to where the State Intrade market has expected them to end up for, in some cases, months.
Yup. All 3 had MOE’s of 3.4%. Their previous poll had FL O +6, OH O +7, PA O +6.
They did another poll on Sep. 11:
FL: Obama -7
OH: Obama +5
PA: Obama +3
That Florida result can’t be right. I think it underestimated Obama’s vote 20 days ago, and has overestimated it now. For the others, the Sep 11 results seem to be more plausible than Today’s results.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
They did another poll just before the debate though which had
FL: Obama +6
OH: Obama +7
PA: Obama +6
I don’t think they face a dilemma at all, if they don’t like the options, they can stay home. We should have the same option here.
Does it make sense for state polls to lag behind national polls? Or should state polls pre-empt a swing about to start in national polls?
The Flordia figure is still suspect -7 to +6 in such a short time?
More likely there was a shift, but it was smaller (i.e. the true state of affairs was never -7)
Yeah, I dont buy the numbers either… probably a weighting change
Dario, don’t comment unless you have something worth saying. “Snore” self-evidently doesn’t cut it.
Betting on which way the betting will go…
Well at least we know what the Wall Street guys are doing now they’ve lost their jobs on the derivatives market.
If you have a look at Quinnipiac’s release, they’ve got pre- and post-debate figures, with around 2000 total for each state. They do seem out of whack though, and all in one direction.
Also, anyone notice the GWU Battleground poll for the last two days? After being the only poller to show a McCain lead for the last week, they stopped weighting on party ID and flipped to show Obama +2 for the past two days.
It happens both ways Showson, depending on political events of the day and where they impact. There’s a lot of demographic variation in the US States, so different events will play out in different ways.
If some party has momentum, often half the country will move first (so the national polls will move first), followed by States that were previously more reluctant about a candidate.
But similarly, sometimes clusters of States will move first (because some specific issue, or groups of issues resonated well) before the rest of the country follows suit.
William, would not the continually repeated comment of the ‘best person not being in the race’ also qualify as not worth saying?
No. It might not be the greatest comment in the world, but it does achieve something more than childish abuse of another commenter.
Grog goes:
That’s classy!
Fairy nuff
Anyone think the Veep debate will have any impact on polls? Surely it can’t be a positive for Obama – the expectations are so low for Palin that unless she let’s drop a “f*cked if I know” she’ll come out looking good. (well not good, but not as bad as people thought)
Al @ 250
Battleground has been having some weighting by age problems that they might have fixed up when 538 skewered them:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html
I read an article that argued that Battleground weren’t weighting by age correctly. Basically they were assuming almost double 60+ age voters than what turned out in 2004. The young voters is more accurate, but I think it is reasonable to predict that Obama will turn out more young and first time voters than in 2004. Here is the blog post:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html
Yeah, I read the same article. I wondered if they may have hidden some changes to age weighting in their data too, or were deciding to get rid of party ID weighting to make them blend in with the crowd a bit more.
William, i cant help it if some people just dont get the context where the comment was made.
Incorrect spelling –> Sin bin, 5 minutes.
This is quickly turning into like the un-scrutinisable debate. How can the ‘experts’ give an opinion on it when it doesn’t matter what Palin says, just how she says it that counts? If she says something stupid, a lot of people are going to go out of there way to say that just shows how “down to earth” she is. Meanwhile, if Biden makes any substantial policy points, it will be interpreted as how ‘Washington’ and out of touch he has become from all those years in the Senate.
If Biden wins, he loses, if he loses, he loses. This article suggests that Biden should just refer to JOHN McCAIN’s policies, and ask Palin to defend policies that she probably still hasn’t even read. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-abrams/sarah-palin-may-emreally_b_130688.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122280937053991807.html
more and more homeless voters everyday in the usa
How dare you! Retract that statement!
Not really. The only way would be if Palin wipes the floor with Biden. I reckon the only people who still support Palin would keep on doing so no matter how much of a goose she made of herself.
Not sure why you’re telling me that, Finns.
I thought most of them weight by party ID if they are measuring LIKELY voters?
262, agreed, this is sad and it will cause a h*** of a mess on Election Day too as people need to be resident in some address that can be reported, i.e you can’t (as is the case here I think) register with a P.O Box, it has to be a physical place. And I don’t know what the rules are on polling day there [there are 50 different sets of rules] but I do know that if someone’s vote is challenged and they can’t prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they reside at the address for which they are registered, then their vote won’t be legally admissable ………
261 ShowOn – it’s a good article.
But in the end will the Veep debate matter? Are both sides worrying too much about it?
Afterall most people will be tuning in in the hopes of seeing a train wreck; even if she avoids that, she’s going to have to be really good to get people to swap votes (or decide to vote)
William, i have to tell somebody. cant tell my wife, she wouldn’t understand. she already thinks i am wasting my time on PB. she thinks i should be doing something more useful like mowing the lawn.
What Finns – at 10 O’clock at night?
Hard taskmaster!
Oh I think so, it is millions of dollars of free air time to get out your message. 60 million watched the debate last week, even if only 10% were genuinely undecided voters, that’s enough votes to swing the election.
I think it works well for the Democrats because I think Biden will just get across an image of being assured and competent (if a little boring) which will make people more comfortable voting for Obama.
Whereas Palin has a lot to prove. I don’t think she can really help McCain, but she could do a lot of damage.
Here’s another similar “what should Joe do?” article. It’s cool because it’s written as a letter directly to Biden:
http://www.slate.com/id/2199363/
Poss, at 10pm, she asks me to chase away the possums that come to our back porch and leave the poos everywhere. some relatives of yours. I need to leave few tricks from sarah palin as a possum shooter.
As they say Finns – Can’t choose the relatives
Although being Palinated in probably a wee bit extreme.
Wonder how many watched the SNL clip of Tina Fey doing Palin being interviewed by Couric?
I love this piece from CNN. yes, Sarah Palin was right, you can see Russia from Alaska. 150 of native eskimos live there. they dont know who their Governor is and no Alaskan Governor has ever visited their island.
they throw their rubbish into the bering stretch and always ended up on the Russian side. I wonder if this is what Sarah was referring to when she mentioned about her FA experience with Russia. Maybe the Russians have complained to her about the rubbish from USA.
http://www.pbs.org/harriman/current/profiles/diomede.html
Those Quinnipiac polls have made the RCP averages go crazy.
Obama up 348-190 on no-toss up Electoral College map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Both Florida and Ohio flip on the Quinnipiac results…
More repercussions from the Q results:
Pennsylvania is now safer on the RCP averages than Maine for Obama (yes, I don’t believe it either).
And something else that I have noted – Virginia (Obama +3 in a state that hasn’t voted for the Dems since 1964) is now safer than Minnesota (Obama +2.8 in a state that hasn’t voted for the Republicans since 1972). It’s definitely a weird looking map out there…
Finns, so even the best line from the Fey parody on Palin “I can see Russia from my house” is based on a lie!
Do you mean that there is more demographic variation within states, or between states? Or both?
I vaguely recall you saying that the U.S. demographically features much starker differences than Australian voters, is this right? Are Australians more closer to some demographic average? Is this because we have less difference between rich and poor?
I don’t believe it. I think this is like overshoot because of the economic crisis. I think this will correct itself over the next few days. I think Obama is leading by 50 – 75 E.C. votes. 150 is nuts.
To put the Q polls in perspective, the last time any party won PA by 15% was Nixon in the 1972 landslide (20% margin then). The last time a Democrat won PA by 15% was Johnson in 1964 (30%).
In OH, the last time a Democrat won there by 8% was Johnson again. In Florida, no Democrat has won by 8% there since Harry Truman in 1948, when FL was still part of the solid south.
So what does that mean? My guess is that the Q polls are overshooting – by how much, I’d hesitate to guess, but I would think you’d be looking around 4 points for each (although that still gives Obama an 11 point lead in PA)…
So it’s gonna be a landslide!
If Kerry could win PA by 2.5%, then I think Obama is safe there.
Amigo FINNS
Notice Quinnipiac polls has created a flap tonite and you hav been mowing over possums lying on your back lawns
Very highly rated Pollster in USA is Quinnipiac but not on th ronniepollics scales seeeing Quinnipiac use there triple layer computer generated methodologies that tom me were theoretically flawed so I always dustbined them , but then on this site when is alternative psephology important
So Ron – is a pollster only credible when it favours your candidate (or in your case, doesn’t favour Obama)?
“, but then on this site when is alternative psephology important”
when it comes to winning a crikey subscription among others ron
If something sounds too good to be true.
Swing Lowe
on what basis was your snide comment based , seeing you could not hav extracted that from my last blog , and secondly explain in a minute how Quinnipiac operate seeing you claim to be a Pollster expert
John Stewart on the collapse of the bail out bill:
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=186754
Amigo ronnie, it looks like the Alamo is on again. where is GG?
Amigo , sweeping away th ruins of a possums credibility on ‘following th data where it takes you’ , did you know hangng on branchs upside down at nite not only does that cause wishful thinking but also ‘output more spread on your lawns makes them gro quicker & thats reely why you hav to lawn mower so often at nite
Gus
you were a deserving winner of crikey subscription , although was tempted to put in a selection at th last moment of Rudd on Labor 92% to Libs 8% Newspoll result which may hav left judges with a problem choosing beteen me winning on one method and you on another..but would not hav been fair
Franklin & Marshall College Poll
PA: Obama +5 MOE 3.5%
http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/KeySep08_1.pdf
Sounds about right to me. The latest Rasmussen says 6%.
Reports of a new NBC poll: Newly registered voters favor Obama 61 to 30
No link yet
This is to be expected, lots of college kids.
Question is, will they turn up on election day?
“choosing beteen me winning on one method and you on another..but would not hav been fair”
but ron i was using factual data,not wistful thinking (though 92-8 would be fine by me)
Maybe they should open up their residential market to foreign buyers for a time if they want cash flows and help asset prices – assuming there would be demand.
Pew Research national LV poll (MOE ~3%) has Obama up 6 points in two weeks
O 49 (up 3)
M 43 (down 3)
http://people-press.org/report/456/obama-regains-lead
Gus
Competitions hav rules set and those that do not adhere to them first get excluded
There were 6 categories of %’s required to be estimated
Another rule of competition was one had to give at least a one line explanation for th scores , only minescule even wrote a one line summary for there 6 selections combined and NO one wrote a one line explanation for each of 6 categories so anyone complying with former was qualified’ and anyone complying with later was “fully qualified”
An unwitting oversite by designers of th ‘competition’….however th ‘competition’ WAS intended to be fun & scores reely were main object so I chose not to enter so that he (you) who got th closest scores was th deserving winner and you were
Rasmussen 51 – 45 for Obama – same as Tuesday.
+9 with unaffiliated voters
51 – 42 as a better economic manager
McCain’s very unfavourable rating has now exceeded his very favourable for the first time all year.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
And only two days to the VP debate…
Here’s a hint at why Obama is leading Virginia:
45% don’t want Palin to be V.P.! Surely that is helping Obama a lot there. Obama is leading 56 / 40 among female voters. So this idea that women are going to blindly support Palin looks like a joke.
Even Clinton couldn’t win Virginia, so Obama is doing amazingly well there.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
26% are extremely comfortable with Palin?
NRA members?
Must be the level or rusted on Republicans who would vote for Bush again if they could.
Guess th guys will not accept th core reality of polls here thats its not econamic mangement thats dring Obama’s surge , until you see it gift wrapped with pretty professionaly sounding psephological words in th New York times or LA Times & th like , and certaily not from ronpollytics
Voters hav layers of resistance to Media info & a very rare thing just scores an immediate 100% bulls eye
When I very first heard of Bailout on that sunday , thought economicaly fine on financia principals BUT th most dumbest politcal announcement I’ve ever ever heard
As i’ve previously suggested , telling voters there taxpayers monies ar going to prop up Banks , to Wall Street to boot , and hell $800 billion to boot of there money , and its NOT going to them….and a “Republican” not a “Democrat” announces it is 100% bulls eye poison on Republicans from that second & with it POTUS
Polls ar I think reflecting this pro helping Banks perceived “Republican” idea point amongst voters , and am guesing whereever & whenever Pollsters poll this will get reflected more and more with all upside to Obama It was I think th most defining moment of th Election
Every party has a base!
The trend continues. In varying degrees the polls are all telling the same story.
I thought The Media brain washes everyone so they have no idea who or what they are supporting? That was the Marxist theory you were peddling a few days ago.
It seems that way – that people blame any problem to do with economy on the Republicans.
Hotline national poll
Obama +5 MOE 3.3%
Good piece in Time Magazine:
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1845209,00.html
Biden is getting some practice against a woman.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/vp-debate-prep-michigan-g_n_130806.html
Ahh, not surprised you endorse the economic colonic irrigation option. Who cares if it sends thousands of innocent people onto the street.
Pity it would leave the U.S. with only two big banks. But hey, your type doesn’t really care about competition anyway.
What are you blathering about. Did you even read the article. Of course not – you just jump to idiotically-conceived predispositions.
Sky showing live coverage of Obama addressing the Senate in Washington at the moment …… Live on Sky main and on Sky UK and Sky special (US Senate). Push the red button on your remote
GP,
i totally agree, unless USA is renamed to USSR (United States Socialist Republic). That’s the trouble with the USA, it is always good at telling the World: “Do as I say, not as I do”. It has no moral authority left to flog.
Anyway historically:
1850-1900 – The British Empire
1901-1950 – The American Hollywood dream
1951-2000 – The Japan Rising Sun
2001-2050 – The Chinese East is Red
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE48T5KU20080930?sp=true
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/01/mccain-gets-testy-with-de_n_130801.html
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/01/mccain-palin-advice/
This sounds a little bit like the team owner forced to defend his coach to the public and yet the coach still gets booted in the short term
…..
Possum, this story comments on polling in the US and specifically; landline vs mobile phone and how the gap affects the polling results. Your comments since you write a lot about polls?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-wihbey/the-cell-phone-polling-ga_b_131021.html
Summary of polls out there:
FL (Insider): Obama +3
NV (Insider): Obama +1
MS (Ras): McCain +8
TX (Ras): McCain +9
TN (Ras): McCain +19
OH (SurveyUSA): McCain +1
FL (CNN): Obama +4
VA (CNN): Obama +9!!!
MN (CNN): Obama +11
MO (CNN): Obama +1
NV (CNN): Obama +4
IN (SurveyUSA): McCain +3
OK (SurveyUSA): McCain +30
PA (Quin): Obama +15
OH (Quin): Obama +8
FL (Suffolk): Obama +4
FL (Quin): Obama +8
NJ (SurveyUSA): Obama +10
PA (Morning Call): Obama +7
PA (Franklin): Obama +7
WI (Strat. Vision): Obama +9
All in all, a spectacular set of polls for Obama. The only ray of light for McCain are the SurveyUSA polls. Pennsylvania now seems to be a certain lock for Obama, as does Wisconscin. Minnesota is drifting more towards lock status, while Obama has definite momentum in OH, FL, MO and NV.
However, the killer poll there is Obama’s lead of 9 in the Rasmussen poll in Virginia. McCain has to put some serious resources there just to make that race competitive again…
More on today’s polls:
Not only have FL and OH flipped to Obama in the RCP averages (FL is now Obama +3, OH is now Obama +2), but NV has now flipped. Obama is now + 0.5 on the RCP averages for NV and is sitting on 353-185 on the RCP No-toss up Electoral Map.
Even when there are toss-ups included, Obama is up 259-163, with PA and WI now in the leaning Obama column…
[
Palin Advising McCain
Posted on October 1st, 2008 by Daniel Larison
Simply priceless:
NPR: Given what you’ve said, senator, is there an occasion where you could imagine turning to Gov. Palin for advice in a foreign policy crisis?
McCain: I’ve turned to her advice many times in the past [bold mine-DL]. I can’t imagine turning to Senator Obama or Senator Biden because they’ve been wrong. They were wrong about Iraq, wrong about Russia.
Leave aside that they agree with him on Russia (maybe this is McCain’s way of admitting that he was wrong?). He can’t imagine turning to the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in a foreign policy crisis? Really? I doubt Biden would have the right answers, but he would seem to be one of the people in Congress you would hope the President is consulting at some point.
So he would rely on Palin’s advice, which we are supposed to believe he has already relied on many times in the last four weeks. Let’s imagine how one of these advisory sessions might play out:
McCain: I’m very concerned that the Russians are going to make a move against Ukraine. What do you think I should do?
Palin: Well, do what I do whenever Putin rears his head over our airspace: don’t blink.
McCain: But what action should we take?
Palin: I’ll have to get back to you.
Yes, the jokes pretty much write themselves when it comes to this pair.
]
Surely these numbers are inflated by the economic crisis.
McCain must be begging for Congress to pass this latest rescuse package.
I wonder if the US media will move on quickly once the ‘crisis’ is ‘averted’.
Yo ho ho, I’ve got the Senate debate on this bill on live feed from Sky at the moment. So far, they haven’t voted on it yet. It will happen at some point though. No guarantees that if they pass it that the HOR will. And if ammendments are attached to either version, it will have to go to a conference committee. I’m leaving home in an hour at 10:30am local time in Canberra and will be out for a few hours. If they vote before I go, I will post the Senate results asap.
Juliem at 318
The likelihood of polling underestimating Obama is pretty strong over the cellphone issue.
Two more pieces you might be interested in on this:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/is_youth_being_served.php
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phone_only_households_by.php
The cellphone penetration maps on that last post are interesting considering the States that are involved.
That would awesome Juliem!
Forgive my lack of knowledge, but what are the implications (in terms of procedure) for introducing the bill in the Senate?
Even the SMH is covering Obama’s polls. This article in todays SMH is pretty hopeful – he is ahead in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania now:
http://news.smh.com.au/world/obama-grabs-big-lead-in-key-us-states-20081002-4s7g.html
You have to wonder if CBS’s board and/or editorial directors are secretly working for or hoping for an Obama victory
…. they keep on leaking stuff day by day, how many more days will these leaks continue? 
……
Yohoho,
Revenue bills can ONLY originate in the HOR. Similar to here. The Senate can not originate revenue bills, thus the SOH saying that the Lib’s recent attempt to bring in a private members bill on pensions was not kosher. What the Senate is doing here, therefore, is “attaching” the bailout bill to another piece of legislation that they are voting on. Thus, the votes on that other bill, by default, will be as if they are voting on the bailout bill. They might also be hoping that they can drag a few extra votes into the bailout bill by hiding it inside of another bill as well. A technique often used by US politicians to get “pork barrel” projects passed – bury them inside a bill that the WH can’t afford to veto
. At any rate, once the bill is voted on tonight (Washington time), IF it is passed, then they “cherry pick” that part of the bill passed (bailout legislation) and walk it across the House to the HOR. The HOR is debating tomorrow, not tonight. SO what the HOR does with it will be on Thursday local time. It is entirely likely that we will have a matter of hours, if not minutes, between the final HOR vote and the beginning of the VP debate. Suspect that as with the first presidential debate that the economy will dominate questions 
…… NOW, as I’ve noted in another post earlier this morning, the Bailout bill ONLY passes if both houses pass an identical version. If either one attaches any ammendments to it that aren’t in the other house’s version, it has to go to a conference committee to iron out the differences whereupon it has to be revoted upon (identical wording in both houses) before it can become law. So there aren’t any reassurances that it will be a done deal before the VP debate ….. Hope that is as clear as mud 
Wow.
I bet the republicans are hoping that the bill is passed before the VP debate – whilst i’m sure that Palin has been extensively briefed on her ‘talking points’, that doesn’t seem to have helped so far.
Oh-oh. Our trusty, impartial, VP debate moderator has a book on the politics of race and FOX are not happy campers.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081001/pl_politico/22742
Yohoho,
Further to my noting earlier that the Senate “attaches” this bill to something else, this is from the Senates website.
[
H.R.1424
Title: To amend section 712 of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, section 2705 of the Public Health Service Act, section 9812 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to require equity in the provision of mental health and substance-related disorder benefits under group health plans, to prohibit discrimination on the basis of genetic information with respect to health insurance and employment, and for other purposes.
Sponsor: Rep Kennedy, Patrick J. [RI-1] (introduced 3/9/2007) Cosponsors (274)
Related Bills: H.RES.1014, H.R.493, H.R.1367, S.358
Latest Major Action: 3/7/2008 Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 610.
House Reports: 110-374 Part 1, 110-374 Part 2, 110-374 Part 3
Note: On 10/1/2008, the Senate plans to use H.R.1424 as the vehicle for the economic rescue legislation. See Senate Majority and Minority notices and documents from the Senate Finance Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. On the Banking Committee website, Division A (pp.2-113) of the draft legislation is referred to as the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008; Division B (pp. 113-261) is referred to as the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008; and Division C (pp. 261-451) is referred to as the Tax Extenders and Alternative Minimum Tax Relief Act of 2008.
]
I’ve got to leave the house now. I don’t know if they have voted yet or not on the bill in question. They had a big vote on something between 10:10am and 10:25am BUT I’m not clear on what they were voting ON at that moment (they are voting on multiple ammendments and legislation tonight). [ They are voting on something at present to do with India and nuclear energy ]. Anyways, that big vote for what I don’t know was 74y – 24n and McCain voted in the negative. I didn’t hear Obama’s vote.
Keep an eye on the various websites and I am sure that someone here will post the bailout vote when it hits the fan. Check in again with all of you mid afternoon ….. Cheers
The indian thing was to sell uranium or plutonium or something to India without India signing the Nuclear NPT. Probably a fair call by McCain to vote no there!
the polls certainly aren’t fantastic for the Republicans at the moment allthrough the latest ABC/Washington Post showing Obamas lead had evaporiated slightly from 52 to43 to 50 ti 46. The latest Rasmussen poll had McCain leading in only one of the five Battleground states Ohio with Obama ahead in Colorado, Pennslyvania and Virginia with Florida a deadheat. I like many right minded people are horrified by the thought of Obama as Commander in Chief of the free worlds number one military. The 1970’s was a terrible psychological period for the US and the free world in having to abandon Vietnam without seeing the toppling of the Communist regime in Hanoi. Thankfully due to the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe and Soviet Union by 1991 we got over that awful period. Can we afford to abandon Iraq with the prospect of Iranian jubilation and Russia eyeing off oil rich Former Soviet Central Asia republics. The United States now more than ever needs John McCain and the Republicans and theres never been a greater need for John McCain and the Republicans.
Senate has begun the roll call on the bailout bill
The Poetry of Sarah Palin
http://www.slate.com/id/2201342/
“You Can’t Blink”
You can’t blink.
You have to be wired
In a way of being
So committed to the mission,
The mission that we’re on,
Reform of this country,
And victory in the war,
You can’t blink.
So I didn’t blink.
(To C. Gibson, ABC News, Sept. 11, 2008)
Sarah Palin completed a Journalism degree she is no uneducated nit wit grow up leftist Liberal elite.
Paul Nash @ 334, Sory but that is rubbish, I, like any like minded people find that even the remotest possibility that the current Republicans ticket wins the White House in November a terrifying thought.
This is the party that has lied, and lied and lied to achieve what? The US and ourselves becoming more of a terrorist target, locking up innocent people in prison without charge or trial or right of defence. Thats a dictatorship not a democracy.
The killing of innocent men, women and children in Iraq under the false pretense of Weapons of Mass destruction.? Where are they,? The US and this country sent our people there to possibly be killed. Human life is more sacred than being sent to a war for the sake of a politicians lie.
This is the party that has deregulated so much that it has accomplished the collapse and undermining of the US and global financial system. When the Republicans came to power in 2000, they came in to a budget in surplus.
The world cannot afford a regime in the US like the last 8 years. A regime that has made the world suspicious of US intentions. Anyone who questions the US is classed as being against them.
The world is not black and white. Finally the people in the US see light at the end of the tunnel, and will vote Obama as the next President.
Shame she acts like it
Senate passes bailout bill.
72 Aye, 24 Nay
Who abstained
sorry that should be 73-25
74-25 I think, not 72-24
yeh looks like 74-25. CSPAN keeps changing the number on the screen.
Paul Nash
#334
“I like many ‘RIGHT’ minded people are horrified by the thought of Obama as Commander in Chief of the free worlds number one military”
As a Labor person , we’d be in general philosophical disagreement on many issues , however I agree your comment Obama has a demomnstrated record of lack of “ticker” and lack of convictions…either of which could lead World into a nuclear catasophe through miscalculations on both sides in numerous trouble spots
This guy Obama crazily has said he’d take out pakistans nuclear arsenal PRE EMPTIVELY…and do so simply because he may not imitially like a reime change in Pakistan But then his supporters here mostly see him as a messiah & haven’t reseached him
You should note I regard Obama as a phoney left person anyway …Obama’s politcs actualy ar simply Obama , about himself Had candidate been a Al Gore type ie. genuine “left’ person , having ‘ticker’ and having commonsense & convictions , then
we would hav been in disagreement
regime change
CNN says both McCain and Obama vote for the bailout bill…
Yeah, she completed a journalism degree, but can’t name a single news source she reads: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html
I think it is funny you use liberal as if it is a derogatory remark, does that make you illiberal?
PN
You are desperate and its obvious. I’m confused though, I thought you right wingers don’t think qualifications matter? Do you think we should chose between McCain and Obama based on qualifications?
Still, if Palin is so well qualified how come she can’t answer simple questions about foreign policy or the economy? Is it because she spent the 20 years in between raising a family and then being a small town mayor rather than holding any meaningful role? Mind, in a society where most people finish high school and many do some tertiary study, a single degree in communicatiosn or journalism, over several years at diferent universities, wihtout any honours or subsequent work practice, is not much.
I’d say: Go for it!!!
Pakistan have been more of an enemy than an ally in the War on Terror. Of course, let’s see how the new President goes – if he’s more cooperative/effective than Musharraf, then obviously there will be no need to worry about them…
342: Senator Kennedy was the absent vote (For obvious reasons. He has cancer)
illogical perhaps
Well, Bush hasn’t done this, so why would Obama?
1) He never said this 2) Palin supports Obama’s policy on Pakistan.
You need to go read up some more on political ideology.
I hope you realise that Al Gore was one of the only Democrat senators to vote in favour of the first Gulf War…
Biden also voted in favour of the bailout plan
I wonder how Lieberman voted. I see him as McCain’s V.P. candidate in exile.
I’d be very surprised if he voted against it.
Ron 334 I as a Country/National person and a Labor person has more in common then with a Liberal person. In the United States the Republicans are able to reach out to Unionists in a similiar fashion as Democrats unlike Australia the Union movement isn’t a part of any political party unlike Australias Labor Party.
As for Socrates, Shows on and Dario your Liberal bias is showing and yes i am desperate i like many evangelical christians in the United States believe this could be the “end of days”.(middle name Hussein)
Not like the end of the world but the end of the US as the worlds leading nation and the ramifications of despotic countries like China, Russia, India and Iran all fighting to fill the vacuum this would create. The United States can’t afford the luxury of putting in a man as President simply because it provides a feel good factor had Hillary Clinton won the nomination i wouldn’t be so desperate.
Paul
I’m confused by your statement. Are you suggesting that Obama’s middle name, and the fact he is a man will lead to the US’s decline as a nation?
Not since the 1980s mate.
A person’s middle name determines whether or not they will be a good president? Yeah right! Does that mean we shouldn’t elect politicians with W as their middle initial? You know, like George W Bush, and John W Howard.
India!? You mean the world’s most populous DEMOCRACY!? LOL!
Well the current President seems to be giving the U.S. a FEEL BAD factor (his disapproval rating is now 70%). So I have no idea why you think the U.S.’s problems have been caused by Obama.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
Yes India Showson the country that still believes in the most evil class system- THE CASTE SYSTEM.
SNIP: Reference to deleted comment deleted – The Management.
According to his theory, it is impossible to evaluate whether or not Abraham Lincoln was a good president because he didn’t have a middle name.
What has this got to do with Obama’s middle name?
358: Is a pile of rotting brainwashed ideological right wing compost. You left off your list one of those despotic countries, the US under the Republicans and the christian fundies that support them.
So Obama’s now responsible for a middle name his parents gave him, and that it is going to signify is the end of the world.? Thats hilarious. ! It’s better comedy than watching Sarah Palin trying to sound coherent.
Only the conservatives (and old-fogies) in India still follow this system.
Most young (and middle-aged) Indians no longer practice the caste system and are more concerned with making money and getting laid than with what their class is (kind of like Australia…
)
An exception to this, of course, is the pathetic (and tragic) way members of the Untouchables are treated by other people in Indian society. Thankfully, changes are being made even on that front…
Dearest Bloggers,
To clarify things a put the “end of days (middle name Hussein)”
Because to evangelical christians Hussein stands for a Islamists name and Barack Obamas father was muslim. Evangelicals remember the dark days of Christendom when the Islamists invaded Europe and ended up at the gates of Vienna in the 1500s.
Another point I want to make is that it will be the Electoral College votes that decide this election not the popular vote. We remember in 2000 how George W Bush won the election fair and square on this basis and imagine if Al Gore had have been proclaimed winner on the popular vote alone Americans would be leaving in poverty today based on his obsession with the notion of man made climate change higher Fuel prices and gigantic electricity bills would be his presidential legacy. You Liberals are so dangerous to the average person wait until Australia faces this quagmire under the Rudd Government with Liberal acquience if only we had a strong National Party.
Senate bailout vote: 74-24
Dems: 40-9 (Obama, Biden aye)
Repubs: 34-15 (McCain aye)
Ind: 1-1 (Lieberman aye, Sanders nay)
Sorry that was 74-25
Meh. Just ignore this troll.
Paul Nash
I recommend you read “An American Dilemma” by Gunnar Myrdal. It explains the caste system in America.
Paul, I like to run a pretty broad church (so to speak), but you’re cutting it fine with this “Hussein” business.
What on earth does this have to do with this year’s Presidential election?
Nonsense doesn’t count as a legitimate reason for why Barack Obama should be President.
It would be the same as me saying that I don’t like the taste of McCain Healthy Choice Meals ( http://www.mccainhealthychoice.com.au/ ), therefore John McCain shouldn’t be president because he will make everyone eat healthy food. Utter nonsense doesn’t count as a valid argument!
You mean the same as every Presidential election?
LOL! Petrol prices in the U.S. are already at an all time high (over US$4 a gallon) thanks to GEORGE W BUSH!
Bush’s economic policies have been an absolute disaster. But I guess that is how he has dealt with rising electricity costs – there’s no need to pay electricity bills if you no longer own a home, or can’t afford to rent a place.
I think your illiberal ideas are dangerous because you think a person’s middle name is the best way to judge them.
The agrarian socialist party (National Party) is losing support because it doesn’t stand for anything, it just blindly supports the Liberals.
Also I note that the Nationals take climate change more seriously than YOU, and many Liberals, because they see how it impacts on farmers.
New Research 2000 polls:
Indiana: McCain +1
Iowa: Obama +16
Iowa is now a certain lock for Obama, while Indiana is still a toss-up
McCain was campaigning in Iowa on Monday, which suggests to me his campaign is hopelessly disorganised.
He is at the point he needs to win either Pennsylvania or Michigan, or Wisconsin and Minnesota (i.e. a Kerry state from 2004).
India the country does not believe in the caste system. There is still, of course, huge divides between people on socio-economic, racial and religious grounds, many of which are remnants of the caste system, but to say that India believes in this system is wrong and frankly quite insulting.
And I wish that I could understand the view point (we’ll leave logic until later) of these people who are afraid of someones name. Incredible in how infantile these viewpoints and prejudices are.
“Hey look, it’s the two symbols of the Republican Party, an elephant and a fat white guy who’s afraid of change.”
Gee somebody is actually saying it was lucky GW Bush got elected and not Gore. I don’t need to list the well known disasters Bush has wrought on the USA and the world. We only see the tip his ice berg now with this financial crisis. I venture to say that Bush has started America on a long slow decline unless Obama can begin the long slow turn of this Titanic. Should he be elected.
OK now I read the evangelical Christian bit – now I understand where the nonsense is coming from. It is Bush and his church and more particular the Pastor of his church that believes chaos needs to reign on earth before Christ will return – hence the propensity to start wars. Fortunately loonies self identify with what they say and automatically alert people to stand back. To funadmentalist Christians it doesn’t matter if the world is falling apart – it is all on the parth to redemption (for those in on the joke).
Dario @ 368,
Does anyone have a link that itemizes the votes? In otherwords, lets us see the total listing of who voted “no”? thanks
On current polls, his best shot is New Hampshire, where Obama is up by 1.3% on RCP Averages.
After that, you’re looking at Minnesota (+ 4.6%), Wisconscin (+5.0%), Washington (+6.0%) and Michigan (+6.6%). In PA, Obama is up by 7.6%, which is the same as Maine, so McCain can forget about it (although overcoming a 5% lead in WI, WA and MI will be very difficult as well).
Here ya go…
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/livecoverage/2008/10/senators_who_voted_against_the.html
Link to the roll call:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14196.html
Iowa poll link:
http://www.kcci.com/politics/17598982/detail.html
Obama now has a massive 353-185 EV lead on Intrade, and is priced at 64.9 for the win
I agree with Paul Nash (337)
Sarah Palin is “no uneducated nit wit”. She is an educated nit wit – and they’re even worse.
Totally. That’s why a lot of fundamentalist Christians now are strong supporters of Israel. They don’t support Israel because it is a democracy (the reason I support Israel), but rather they support Israel because they don’t want the middle east peace process to be resolved. They want Israel to start a war with Iran so that it ‘brings on the apocalypse’.
Dario @ 384,
An old saying goes something like this …… “There’s a snowball’s chance in h*** [that event 'X' will happen]”
Afraid that McCain has reached that point
…….
Off-topic, but check this out – Google as of 2001:
http://www.google.com/search2001.html
I searched Barack Obama (no apostrophes) and got only 770 hits. By contrast, the same search term in today’s Google gets you 70.3 million hits!!!
Al Qaeda only has 1670 hits in 2001, but has 20.1 million hits tomorrow. How much the world has changed…
Virginia has gone from 53 to 59% in 1 day.
Florida has been flipping back and forth, but now shows a solid lead for Obama.
Admit it, after that, you search for your own name.
Actually – I didn’t (but I will now
)
I searched “Sarah Palin” and Google 2001 has no documents. LOL – even I had 2 hits when I put my name in apostrophes in Google 2001…
Those Q polls are looking accurate now. This economy thing has really killed McCain and he only has his Repug buddies to blame. It looks like carnage on the recent polls at RCP fro McCain.
Palin will probably do OK tomorrow but she needs to give voters a reason to change to McCain which she definitely will not do. It’s a lost opportunity for the Repugs when they desperately need a circuit breaker.
Swing Lowe
My name comes up with thousands of references to a black guy in the US who was about to be fried on death row in Texas until they worked out he didn’t do it and let him go.
The way I see it, Biden can further HELP Obama, whereas Palin can only potentially HURT McCain’s chances.
Ron :
#346
“This guy Obama crazily has said he’d take out pakistans nuclear arsenal PRE EMPTIVELY…and do so simply because he may not imitially like a regime change in
Pakistan”
Swing Lowe
#351
“I’d say: Go for it!!!
Pakistan have been more of an enemy than an ally in the War on Terror.”
You’ve just self convicted yourself of possessing dangerously irrational FA ideas & hav no credibility on FA based on those views , Also still waiting for your answer on Quinnipiac justifying your snide criticism of my Quinnipiac Poll blog seeing I’d not commented previously on other Pollsters
You were later followed by ShowsOn & Dario who both Adam & I hav exposed as blogging mistruths as truths , so there zealotary untrue posts regarding anything at all about Obama should always be ignored as novice barrackers
When and where did this occur, or are you “blogging mistruths as truths”?
My name comes up with a musician, an artist, a baseball player and a rugby league player. I never knew I had such talent!
Simple – I give pollsters the benefit of the doubt until I see evidence that they are inaccurate.
Fivethirtyeight.com says that Q has a 1-2 point Dem bias this election. I accept that and shall discount their weightings accordingly.
I don’t see why I have to justify believing a professional pollster’s polls…
Ronster
You’re missing the forest for the trees. Ignore the Q polls and look at todays RCP. McCain is getting killed.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
PM 367
From your views I wonder if you think the US should expell every muslim in the country? That would be unconstitutional, given that you live in a country that was founded on the basis of freedom of religeous expression for all (assuming you have read your constitution). Obama is not a muslim, but even if he was, he is still entitled to become president if he is hte best person for the job. Its plain that McCain isn’t.
Criticising people on the basis of their name is even sillier. US WWII General Omar Bradley had an arabic name (Omar). Was he unpatriotic? The fact is “Hussein” is a common semitic mid-eastern name. For your education, read:
http://www.juancole.com/2008/02/barack-hussein-obama-omar-bradley.html
Finally, I know it is not PC to criticise peope’s religeon but I have little time for fundamentalist christians, or fundamentalists of any faith. They have been pandered too far too much by cynical politicians in recent years. They can believe whatever they dream up, but they have no right to force the rest of us to adhere to their beliefs, which are far less universal than they imagine. They also have no justification to do so under christianity. One of the core beliefs in christianity was that god gave humans free will to decide whether to worhsip or not. Read the new testament and Jesus warns explicitely against those who try to foretell things like “the end of days” (You will know not the hour or the day). I sometimes wonder how many fundamentalists have even read the bible.
Not many. There’s a new movie out in the US by comedian Bill Maher called ‘Religolous’ where he went out to middle america and interviewd people about what they knew of the bible etc. It was scary the responses he got…
I think many of them avoid it, else it may challenge the certainty of their world view. The bible is in many parts ambiguous, or at least open to varying degrees of interpretation. This explains why even religious scholars can’t agree on what some verses actually mean.
Fundamentalism seems to me to be opposed to ambiguity and complexity, instead it tries to simplify things to a black or white world view, us against them, good v evil. Well, I don’t think the world works that way. Actually knowing something takes a lot more time and reflection than that. Which is why fundamentalists don’t make good political leaders, they can’t accept things are often more complicated than how they make it.
CBS poll has Obama up by 9 nationally:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/01/opinion/polls/main4491938.shtml
How high can he go?
Dario @ 404,
As high as he can fly, look at his opposition
ShowsOn
Yes I think it is a huge moral cop out to just say “I must do/not do X because my pastor said so”. No better than fundamentalis muslims saying “I must jihad against X because my imam said so”. Some economists are not much better “we must adopt policy X because Milton Friedman said so”. These people seem afraid to think for themselves, because they might find some of their cherished beliefs are false.
Socrates
They’re not called the Christian Taliban for nothing.
Swing Lowe
You stated your opinion of how you judge pollsters , but I did not criticise your opinion at all , so your reply on your personal opinion of pollsters is not relevant
What is relevant is I had not previously criticised any other Pollster NO matter what there Polls said favouring Obama
THEN I give an opinion on a particular Pollster namely Quinnipiac , and your reply was a snide comment that I did not like th then released Quinnipiac Poll just because it favoured Obama
I’ve asked you to give your reasons for your unsolicited snide comment , seeing it was th first Pollster I’d queried , which gav you an oportunity to rethink your remark Your subsequent reply indicates you hav not An impartial person would hav difficulty in justifying your post
McCain’s falling short was predictable, and has been predicted by several for some time. The US economy was headed for a fall this year and the timing was not accidental (October is their reporting season and all the bad news comes out then). McCain could not cope with that, or distance himself enough from Bush, especailly with Phil Gram in tow as his advisor. Now that the Senate has passed a reasonable compromise bill, the economic criss will not get worse, but the recession will take a while to abate.
From here till election day the democrats should hammer these themes: Who caused this mess? (Dubbya and cronies) Can McCain fix it? (no) Who makes the decisions if McCain can’t? (Palin? ROTFL Gram? shudder)
Ron,
2 things:
1. Let it go – I made that comment over 18 hours ago – there’s no point hammering on about it forever…
2. That said, I do apologise. Not only for the tone of the comment, but also because I didn’t know that Q was the only pollster that you have criticised.
For all those McCain supporters and Obama haters, it’s not looking good.
Americans are not happy that their tax paying dollars are going into failed financial institutions to rescue their economy.
Obama in from 1.45 to 1.30. McCain out from 2.70 to 3.30.
What about those neo conservative extreme right wing republicans? They decry any kind of socialism. They detest any kind of government intervention and regulation. Well now it has come back to bite them in the @rse in a big way with this rescue package.
Idiots.
God bless America they say. Well God is obviously doing something else.
The place is a DIVE! Probably the worst and most ideological democratic country on earth.
412,
They will probably claim that “it wasn’t me” looking at the vote tally
Swing Lowe
$410
“I do apologise. Not only for the tone of the comment, but also because I didn’t know that Q was the only pollster that you have criticised.”
Accepted SL , no problem
I might mention as an interesting point that US has alot of Pollsters , some National & some more geographic based using different methodoliogies partly caused by non compulsory voting meaning not only ar sample sizes a problem there but also historical voting levels vs likely voters vs Party shares of population vs reistration levels maybe changing those shares vs turnout rates etc etc & different methodologies ar used & in Quinnipiac’s case was not happy with there’s
If you missedd it I gav a view of overall polling in my #305 , which itself was a repeat of comments I’d made about a week earlier re bailout effect and Polls
The current surge for Obama while encouraging for Democrat supporters needs to continue before it can be regarded as a firm trend. Looking at William’s chart, it appears that the support for both candidates has gone in waves of late. This is probably due to the halo effects of the two Party’s conventions and of late the Wall St. issue. With the Bill for saving Wall St. now passed, will we see the crisis over and another waver in the support of Obama in the coming weeks as American’s see the economic crisis as fixed? It is often commented that Americans don’t have long attention spans. Will this Wall St bail out allow the economy to drift out of focus or will it be a defining issue?
McCain is toast and given these numbers, there is no way that Obama will lose Michigan
….
{ for the USA in the month of September, compared on a month by month basis, so compared to August }
Further to the chart in 417,
p.s to 417 & 418, sales figures are on a month to month basis but compared to the same month from a year ago.
GG (416)
Doesn’t the bailout bill still have to pass the Reps?
GG
I said that the passing of the bailout bill will stop the economic crisis getting any worse (assuming it get passed in House of Reps too). I didn’t say it was over. There is still a lot of pain to go. Next Tuesday (wednesday our time) should be pretty interesting. The US is still a heavily indebted country now in a deep recession. It might be 2012 before they have fully recovered.
Darn, yes it does and unless the HOR is passing a bill with exactly the same wording, it goes to a conference committee to iron out differences and then each house has to revote on the measure once they’ve set each house with identical wording …..
HOR will NOT vote on this until after the VP debate, not until Friday. Why not Thursday US time, I’ve no idea ….
Socrates,
I don’t think the economic crisis is over either, just that perhaps a lot of Americans will think it is over with the passing of the bail out bills.
Exactly! They are all exactly the same in my book – arguments from authority – at the expense of reason.
This is one reason McCain’s debate performance was misjudged. He was still using the Ronald Reagan line – “The Government is the problem”, but we are currently in a situation where only the U.S. GOVERNMENT has enough money (or rather the ability to buy enough credit) to solve the problem. His debate message was extremely poorly judged for the times we are in.
It certainly seems to breed extremes across the ideological divide. More extreme than Australia I think.
It won’t last, there’s no way Obama will win by 9 on election night. A win by 5% is a landslide in my book.
Is ABC running the debate tomorrow morning??
I know SBS is but they have awful reception.
I think the main focus once the bailout legislation is complete will be whether it is working or not – and this is a question which cannot be answered in 5 minutes. Even if there is a marked improvement in liquidity and the stock market there is going to be plenty of focus on financial and economic analysis over the next few weeks – more than enough to take us to the election and beyond one would think. With good management, Obama should have little trouble focussing the minds of ordinary Americans on the issues that favour him the most.
Yes 11 AM eastern.
Yes, Glen.
ABC, Sky, SBS, the usual suspects
Sweet.
This is going to be more interesting than any of the Obama/McCain debates!
No one hates better than the extreme left.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24435458-663,00.html
A win is a win. I suspect Obama will need to maintain a good margin to get over the line on the day. And there is still time for another crisis to develop, say a national security type issue, that would swing the balance back the other way. However you would much happier being Obama than McCain for sure.
GG
It still has to pass the House, which will keep the economy in the news, albeit to a lesser extent (unless it fails again and then all hell will break loose). The sweeteners for the Repugs make the bill look even more repulsive to me (extra $100B in tax breaks for business, less regulation of business etc).
The polls will shift back to McCain, but it’s all over now. Possum called it first. America will have it’s first black POTUS.
The Palin Biden debate wont be a debate. It will be Palin trying her hardest not to say too much and Biden trying to be as gentle as possible when it comes to crossing swords with Palin. I have enjoyed listening to Biden in the past but I assume he will be on his best behaviour.
[No one hates better than the extreme left.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24435458-663,00.html
Um, what about Hitler?
I think the extreme left and extreme right are as bad as each other in this regard.
{No one hates better than the extreme left}
I don’t know about that GG (431). The extreme right aren’t too bad at it either. The Ku Klux Klan, Hitler and McCarthyism come readily to mind.
GG
did you land in a nest of fragile FL haters
From th day of Bailout announcement 20/9/08 , anyone that subsequently called th Election & foolishly brags is behind obvious voter reaction against Financial Institutions
You cann’t give $800 billion of tax payers monies when its NOT being given to th Public and not expect absolute public outrage against whoever is perceived responsible’ ….seeing politcaly incompetent Bush.. a Republican announced it as POTUS , then Republicans wear it (irrespective that congress Democrats & Republican share respoinsibility for this mess
ps/ think voters would be even more outraged if they actualy understood mosyt of 800 billion monies is essentially not for morgage holders but holders of speculative mortgage backed securities , and worse still derivatives on them & sometimes double dipping My hart tells me to let them go broke & provide wlefare benefits to innocents including failed company payee type earners
Try the blog that shall not be named here. That’s pure hate of the left.
(433) Diogenes
I don’t see why it’s a given that the polls will shift back towards McCain. The anger and fear over the financial crisis are not going to disappear overnight. I think it’s just as likely that the drift towards Obama will continue.
I would be very interested to hear from Juliem and Possum on that matter.
Actually, recent (post-HOR rejection) polls have shown that more and more Americans now support the bailout (don’t have the links, but they have been referred to in this thread before).
The reasons behind this are (I think):
1. People realised that the values of their 401-Ks took a major dive after the HOR rejection
2. Politicians stopped calling it a bailout and instead started calling it a rescue package.
3. Both McCain and Obama supported a bailout bill of some sort – which took some of the partisanship out of the issue.
Your idol Adam strongly suggested that the economic downturn had probably killed off McCain’s chance of winning during his dummy spit in the previous thread. Are you calling him foolish?
So why do polls give a mixed response on whether or not this is a good idea? Like the Rasmussen poll that says there is a roughly even split between those who support, oppose, and don’t know about whether it is a good idea?
This isn’t very left wing thinking now Ron. Isn’t it better to help people stay in their homes, rather than wait for them to get kicked out THEN give them social security payments?
New national AP poll (I think): Obama +7
http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20Poll%20100108%20Topline%20final2.pdf
Ron
I think Obama would have won without the Crash but this makes it a dead cert. For me, the turning point was Obama’s Lipstick comment. The ridiculous lying by the Repugs was called out by the media and everyone realised that the Repugs wanted to talk about anything except policy and issues, partly because their VP choice was not capable of talking about them. The questions about Obama’s character, youth and experience were answered in the debate when he showed he was the equal of McCain on foreign policy.
And McCain’s V.P. pick turned HIM into the risky choice, and completely under-cut what was meant to be his central argument against Obama – you can’t trust this guy because he is too young and too inexperienced.
It’s a great time to be a liberal elite. Ruddster got up, Obama beat Billary, Blair was ignominiously dumped by his own party and Obama’s going to beat McCain.
And we’ve just gained control of America’s banking system and socialised it with the most liberal POTUS ever to control it all. World domination HERE WE COME!
New Washington Post poll now says 60% don’t think Palin has enough experience to be President (MOE 3%)
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24436377-23109,00.html
Glen 426, I’m surprised you get SBS at all in Jeparit!
If you have cable, CNN should be showing the VP debate also. They have the worm on the screen which should be fun to watch if Palin goes anything like her recent interviews!
Fair go, I wanted Clinton to win the primary. But Obama is the 2nd best candidate. The Republicans had a huge selection of duds.
If Obama wins, hopefully he offers Clinton a secretary position.
This could go down as the biggest foot bullet in any presidential campaign.
Diogenes
Better hope Poss’s tree is a Moreton Bay Fig
I’d quite like to see Hillary named Secretary of Health or even overseeing business regulation. She is a smart lawyer and they need someone to fight the entrenched corrupt mass that Wall Street has descended into under Bush’s no-rules policies.
I agree. She has a lot to offer.
Hillary’s happy as the New York Senator. She’d have to give that up and I’m betting she stays put.
At this stage, her performance is startlingly similar to the previous female VP candidate – Ferraro in 1984.
Like Ferraro, she has been responsible for making a previously trusted senior male politician (Mondale v McCain) look rash purely because she was his VP choice.
What’s saving McCain from a Mondale style rout is:
1. McCain isn’t proposing to raise taxes like Mondale
2. Obama is nowhere near as good a politician as Reagan
3. Most non-swing states have got a lot “redder” or “bluer” since 1984, meaning that there are now electoral college structural factors that would prevent a 1984 (or 1988, even) style rout for either party…
Darn @ 439,
I don’t think McCain has a chance. He was always going to get the rusted on Republican vote from which ever end of the spectrum it was. In order to get into the WH, he had to also win the independents and also probably win over some of the soft vote for Kerry in 2004. He simply hasn’t been up to the task that I can see so far. Problem after problem of one sort or another. His campaign has more holes in it than swiss cheese. Although to be fair to his campaign manager(s), some of the events going wrong have been out of his control (economy). More, however, have been under his control and he has dropped the ball literally (choice of VP is one). Had he chose wisely there, he wouldn’t be so far out of the game at present. But he still wouldn’t win, just would have narrowed the margin. So the VP choice was never going to win the election for him but it could have made the contest a more interesting, close one.
You could possibly [and some of the loyal Libs on this board might have already contemplated this] draw a parallel with Howard and the Tampa affair in 2001. However, I don’t think even the US equivelent of the Tampa would help him. In 2001, Howard was working from the power of the incumbency so had demonstrated leadership [after a fashion, I am a Labor voter after all
] from the PM’s office since 1996. McCain has no such established base to work from. The Senate doesn’t count as 3 of the 4 candidates all have that same experience, therefore it is a wash they are all equal in that regard. Therefore, he is way behind JH in “currency” with the respective electorate at the same point in the political cycle. Therefore, the equivelent type national security scare will not help him.
He also has the economy and the poisonous Republican brand hanging as dual albatrosses around his neck.
Obama will lose some votes to the racial issue, that can not be avoided. I think any realist would accept that. I don’t think that number will be of a volume that it will matter though.
No, I don’t see any way any how anywhere that McCain can win. He has to, as I noted up front in this post; keep his diehards, get the independents and cut into Kerry’s vote bloc from 2004. That isn’t going to happen.
As an aside to how well Obama is going, he is getting heaps of help and endorsements from the entertainment and celebrity world. Take the Boss for example (Bruce Springsteen for those who don’t know his nickname). Springsteen is playing for him in Ypsilanti, Michigan at Eastern Michigan University Monday 6th October / Saturday October 4th in Philedelphia / Sunday October 5th in Columbus, Ohio at Ohio State University and on 16th October is teaming up with Billy Joel in a NYC concert. All are free to concert goers and Obama will be at all 4 rallies.
McCain can’t garner that kind of background support to help him bring in voters. Appearing with McCain (as with Bush) in public is poison at present.
I’m not saying that for one reason or another that we don’t know at present that some of Obama’s lead might not be pulled back BUT the odds are slim at best and even if the polls do show some narrowing I am saying that it won’t be enough
…..
juliem
I should point out that I said Obama will definitely win IMHO but I think there will be a Narrowing.
ShowsOn @ 449,
Perhaps the biggest bullet in a presidential campaign. But for sheer stupidity and proximity of the error to the election, nothing takes the cake more than the VIC state election when a shadow cabinet member (think it was the deputy leader but not sure) forgot to register his new address with the AEC so wasn’t eligible to stand
….. that came out as I recall about 10 days before the state election that year 
…… [sorry but don't remember what election that was, we were still living in the states at that time]
Socrates @ 451,
Likely if she does go into cabinet that it will be as SOH imho. From what I understand about her work in the Senate, she is more or less going to be the Senator to inherit the mantle of caring for the health issues from Teddy Kennedy. He wasn’t well enough to be in Washington for the vote today, I hope he is well enough to make it to January and see the swearing in for Obama.
Seeing I’ve been selectively quoted again about home owners despite fact I said “all innocents”
From Tuesday 30/9/08
Ron #30
“Econamically th bailout was/is necessary ONLY because of its flow on effects on both US & world economy
I must say from my hart I would hav favored a ronanomics solution…let all those greedy and/or irresponsible credit decsion making Banks etc go broke , let there high powered brown paper finacial engineers go ta ta without parachute $ exits , provide finacial relief for employees affected re welfare etc , wow i’ve still got 790 billion left…so 120 billion for universal healthcare , ‘trade’ with viable banks to rejig loans on capacity to repay so homeowners hav opportunity to reasonable repay wthin means but keep houses & stabilise house prices , implement a ‘poor’ climb ladder program , and with rest ring th Chinese to keep it…and sack any who won’t be reprogrammed to accept adequate ‘regulation’, standards & disclosure and balanced budgets , or maybe just abolish econamists anyway”
I stand by this Does anyone wish to disagree
SWING LOWE
You ar right there hav been mixed signals about votereffect of Bailout However my immediate sense on 20/9/08 Bailout date when Bush announced it was what average voters would sense of $800 billion of there money not nbeing given to them but to Financial Institutions & as Bush a Republican annunced it that “Republican” brand would be tarnished , I feeel that has driven th Plls ever since more strongly Obama , but hav yet to see crredible polling whether it was vote defining vs my perception
what can be significent is voter turn out
In the usa voting is optional so a big turn out could well help
the democrats win 2-3 close states
Good point Mick
… and historically BIG turnouts have ALWAYS benefitted the Democrats 
…..
Voter base for Republicans aren’t the sort of folks who turn out for the polls in droves if you know what I mean
……
There really are some sick puppies out there.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24435284-5006301,00.html
juliem, if it looks like the Dems are going to win will that affect voter turnout of the republicans or Dems. Is there a danger that either side may become either too cocky ( Dems ) or too downhearted ( Republicans ) to not turn out to vote.?
Diog, you bet she will. As the second best candidate will crash and burn during his 4 years of POTUS. They will beg her to run in 2012.
Sondeo,
I can’t speak for the Republicans as I can’t imagine myself in their shoes, too difficult and I don’t enjoy migraines
…..
I really can’t say too much about the Democratic vote in general either. Don’t know too much about the situation on the ground as it were since I’ve been out of the country now for coming up on 4 years.
The black vote though, nationwide, I can speak to. [For the record, I'm a white female voter in the 45 to 50 age group]. I know about the black vote because of growing up in Michigan (high concentration of black voters there) and I read a net article about this a few weeks back near the end of the Aussie winter.
Historically, blacks are one of the least represented groups at the polls because of the situations they can often find themselves in, they tend not to vote. Either don’t register at all or are registered and don’t vote. What is the candidate going to be able to do for me? The sample black voter might be on welfare, perhaps have a criminal record of some sort, etc. etc.. I know that there are wonderfully educated black Americans (we are going to put one into the WH for example) but the poor and less well off in America are unproportionally black, that fact can not be ignored. Point being that these folks have no motivation to get to the polls as they try to answer the question “what’s in it for me if I elect this guy?” and the answer is in the negative so they don’t bother.
It wasn’t until Obama began winning a few contests that the black community began to believe, really believe that yes, we have hope, maybe we can do it this time. You will most definetely see a reverse Bradley effect (I believe that was what someone on this board called it a week or two ago) as blacks will turn out now to the polls in droves since they can say that their votes helped put a black man INTO the WH. Historically, they will want to be a part of that and it will do the WORLD of good in order to improve the view they see of the world if a black man is in the WH. Don’t know if I can explain it quite the way I want to, but perhaps, I hope you can understand what I am trying to say?
Having grown up in Michigan and travelled around the country to more than half our states there, I’ve seen a lot of black people over the years. Although I’ve since lost touch with her, one of my very best friends at uni was a black woman. There are some real gems out there as there are in almost every ethnic group. I would say, though, in my travels over the years that about 1/3 of the black folks I’ve met have had a “chip on their shoulders”, either invisible or visible. Depends on how much they wanted to let it “show through”. That “complex” amongst the black community in America, will go a long way towards disappearing if Obama, as expected, gets into the WH. They will all feel as if “a part of them” is in the White House and it will in and of itself do heaps for repairing race relations in the US.
As much as the white folks who can’t handle it have to deal with it and they have no choice, the blacks just as much have to work to get rid of that chip on their shoulders. It will take work from both sides of this issue and with Obama in the White House, you have no idea how much difference that will make
…….
Sondeo et. al.,
Take a good look at this YouTube piece if you haven’t seen it yet. It isn’t an official campaign ad, but it might as well be as it is that effective. I’ve had it in my favorites most of this year. Set to the music, ironically, of “Don’t Dream, It’s Over” (one of our great hits).
Yeah, and it was the shadow Treasurer!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Dean
Oh, I don’t know.
I reckon Howard stuffing up the Health costings in 87 is right up there too.
GG, 1987 was well and truely before I was on the Aussie scene. Can you tell me what happened that you are referring to? Cheers
… Always interested in the political trivia, especially so when JH is wearing the dunce cap 
I don’t know the full details, but essentially Howard announced a policy costed for a certain amount, but it turned out he was out by a lot. Severan hundred million, which back then was a fortune.
The genius of the Labor response was that Keating managed somehow to convince the media that the mistake was actually double the true amount making it close to a billion dollars. Obviously it did a great deal to destroy Howard’s credibility.
Saying that will p*ss off a lot of Kiwis – they still claim Crowded House as their exclusive possessions…
Btw, I think John Hewson’s “Birthday Cake” interview in 93 would be up there in terms of major campaign stuff-ups.
Another contender would be Neil Kinnock’s Sheffield Rally in 92. And probably the entire British Labour “Manifesto” in 83…
Swing Lowe,
I consider them unofficial Aussies, I don’t discriminate
…….
Swing Lowe…but wasnt it the ‘Sun’ that won it?
SL @ 472,
McCain and Palin still have 4 weeks to add to that list
…….
juliem…New Zealand are in our Constitution, those lazy buggers just didnt join us in time!
So does Obama.
Glen,
That’s what “The Sun” likes to think.
Personally, I think any newspaper whose main claim to fame is topless girls on page 3 can’t really expect to be taken seriously in political affairs.
But that’s just me…
I never knew that Glen… really?
The bail out package explained in pictures:
http://affordablehousinginstitute.org/blogs/us/2008/09/bailout-or-bonanza-part-1-what-do-you-do.html
Dario,
They’re in the preamble (and Western Australia isn’t)…
Yes but the punters do buy them by the bucket load, and most tabloids have naked women in them except the Times from what i could see whilst I was in London.
I think Major winning the election was like Keating wining it in 1993, they both should have lost.
Electoral-vote updated.
Obama 338
McPalin 185
NC Tie
Was Billary ever as far ahead of McCain as that?
And ESJ, I haven’t forgotten our bet if you’re out there.
Dario,
And WA actually voted to secede in 1935. But no one took them seriously.
WA did vote by a large majority to break away in 1933 i think it was high 60s to low 30s in favour!
Dario, they voted against joining the federation and only joined because we promised to build a railway from east to west lol!
Well the British Parliament said NO! So it was scrapped.
Should have let the bloody Sandgropers go…
And Fiji considered becoming part of our federation but bailed when New Zealand did.
#470 and before: I think we might be conflating the failure of Howard’s 1987 tax policy to account for bracket creep, and the Liberals’ failure to work out a health policy before the 1990 election.
That’s also true Shows On, so we could have had an Australasian Nation made up of Australia, New Zealand and Fiji…we’d have our own empire, added to that PNG which became ours after WW1!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:WA_secession_delegation.jpg
hehehehe the guy on the right has big ears, may be a relative of McMahon!
Some how I think Fiji just would’ve eventually wanted independence after colonial rule ended.
It would’ve been good to have New Zealand though. We could use it as a carbon offset for the mainland.
Also we’d be unbeatable in Rugby, Cricket and Netball!
What do you think about having a unified currency? (The ‘Zac’ as Tim Fischer called it).
Surely it would be more a benefit to them than us.
Now that we need to get back to American things….
Something that gives me the red ass is that when we went decimal in 1966, we changed the name of the currency from Australian Pound to Australian Dollar…we should of kept Pound!
Also consider all the currencies and it is the Pound doing the best!
At one point our Aussie Pound was worth more than a US dollar!
Only if they became a State of the Commonwealth of Australia.
NSW has a larger population so if they want a unified currency they’ll have to be a State!
That’s because a pound was the equivalent of two dollars.
But that would be even MORE of a burden to us than just sharing currencies.
half of New Zealand already live here though?
William
Yes there was Howards bracket crep error but th doozie was when Keating disclosed Howard had double counted his estimated Government spending cuts so he out out by about 1.5 billion
Howards response was to say something like it was a ‘technical error’ , which at time thought was cute
Also Howie was against Medicare, a real vote loser!
juliem, thank you, your comments are appreciated.
I’ve been visiting a lot of blogs, especially by African Americans, trying to gauge their reaction to the candidacy of Obama, and if because of him will it make a difference to the voter turnout.
As an outsider looking in, I would say by what I have read they are very energized, very passionate and very determined. I get the feeling they realize that this may be their time and they are going to take every opportunity count.
I’m wondering if the reverse Bradley effect you spoke about, may be the reason for the spike in the polls for Obama recently. A lot of African Americans are going to turn out to vote.
I guess a “technical error” is a particular type of non-core error.
Re 499,
EXACTLY my point in 473
……..
Sarah Palin’s Greatest Hits:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrzXLYA_e6E
How is Obama going to raise Taxes and do all his social reforms when there will be no money to do it now that Wall St has gone belly up? That’s what Sarah ought to be saying to Biden!
Are you sure this is a good argument to make the day after the U.S. Government received permission from Congress to take out $700 billion of credit?
I think Palin should take a different approach and argue that McCain and herself are the best people to SPEND the money properly.
Furthermore, I think a lot of average Americans would like the idea of the rich paying more to help bail out the poor at this particular time. So if Palin let’s Biden talk about raising taxes on the top 5% of income earners she would be giving him a free hit.
That’s 700b that Obama hasnt got to spend on Universal health care?
I think we should be on the look out for gaffes by Biden too, in a speech to a Jewish organisation he started off with a Jewish joke….hmmm this is going to be a hum dinger!
Earlier, we had George W mangling the “fool me” lesson. One of his most trenchant critics used it in his film Fahrenheit 9/11 and and then re-used it in this Neil Young film clip (Watch for the “Lord Help Us” sign in Bush’s inauguration parade).
Neil Young is coming for the Big Day Out and won’t need to sing “Impeach the President” this time.
And to all the d!ckheads out there who have bucketed Michael Moore over the years I’d like to say this.
MICHAEL MOORE WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG AND YOU WERE WRONG
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=ynHpOg5ZkuQ&feature=related
ShowsOn @505,
I watched two minutes of that (length about 5 1/2 mins.), couldn’t take any more. I’ve been studiously avoiding all references to Palin since she came onto the scene. To the point of muting the TV if she came onto the news. I hadn’t heard her voice and only read the text of what she has said or not said until now. I didn’t want to see any more of her than I had to
so was holding out for the debate tomorrow as all I could take. Broke down and watched some of this out of curiousity 
…..
Thanks for getting me keyed up for tomorrow morning, this ought to be a barrel of laughs
. Don’t think that she will turn out any different persona than she showed Charlie or Katie 
……..
The U.S. Government will probably get all that money back AND MORE in a few years because banks are desperate to get rid of their high risk assets. It is possible that this will all end in a profit for tax payers in a few years time. What better argument than to give that money back as universal health care.
Sure is, I can’t wait for it. I think Biden can only help Obama, but Palin can only hurt McCain’s chances. In the CNN poll 40% of REPUBLICANS think she is too inexperienced for V.P.
She has a great bubbly personality, and she always sounds happy no matter how nonsensical the words coming from her mouth.
She should consider getting into FM breakfast radio.
Palin has no idea about the Supreme Court or the basis of the Roe vs Wade decision.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=0rXmuhWrlj4&feature=user
And all this BS about her being a good debater in the past is spin (from the Dems). She’s always been terrible. One guy calls her ill-informed and needing crib notes. Nothing has changed. Click on the video section.
http://abcnews.go.com/
I know the discussion has passed re NZ being in the constitution preamble (stepped out for a while), but thanks Glen for that one… truly an interesting tid-bit!
Yeah, she agrees that there is an implied right of privacy in the constitution, which I thought was ONE of the rationales for abortion rights (i.e. a woman’s body is her property, and can not be interfered with by the Government)
Even I could think of two other than Roe V Wade: Bush V Gore, the case that ’settled’ the 2000 election, and Brown V Board of Education (the case that ended segregation, i.e. that killed of the “separate but equal” doctrine.
No I didn’t require Google.
New Battleground poll now gives Obama a 5 point lead (MOE ~3.5%). A few days ago this had been the only poll still leaning to McCain. No more.
Obama 49
McCain 44
Can you believe it… Troopergate is likely to be adjudicated on today of all days!
http://www.adn.com/troopergate/story/543414.html
Yes Glen. It WAS an interesting tid bit. I’ll bet the vast majority of Aussies wouldn’t know that. A very good trivia question.
I should say, the decision on Troopergate is for a court to decide if the investigation should continue…
(516) That’s a very telling poll Dario
Palin was asked for a SC decision she DISAGREED with. I don’t think disagreeing with Brown vs Board of Education or Bush vs Gore would have helped her a lot.
Palin lost a SC decision when Alaskans were shafted by the SC reducing the damages against the Exxon Valdez. That kind of thing would stick in most people’s minds.
So 5 of Palin’s Republican friends in the legislature have gone to court to stop the legislature from investigating the executive. This has to be the first time I have ever heard of members of a legislature trying to restrict how much power the legislature has!
Here’s a pretty scathing editorial that says Palin was a unifying figure before she sold out to the McCain campaign:
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/543289.html
Impartiality must not only be done; but it must also be seen to be done. This will not help Biden, it will only help Palin. An unfortunate development for the Dems.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/us/politics/02debate.html
Homer gets Diebolded!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/02/homer-simpson-tries-to-vo_n_131119.html
Yeah, I read on one Democrat blogger said Obama and Biden should say they want her removed. This blogger’s theory was that it would be harder for Palin than Biden to adjust to any late changes.
McCain has come out endorsing the moderator saying she is fine. Which is surprising, he has spent the rest of the week attacking CBS and the New York Times for “gotcha” journalism. I think gotcha journalism means the journalist asks you something you don’t know the answer to.
Can’t see it hurting much. The swing is on.
523,
Put a sock in it ….
Dario @ 526,
With baseball bats
……. (since you probably wouldn’t be able to buy a cricket bat unless you looked hard enough in a Canadian store? 
)
OK so when Palin loses the debate, we can blame Ilfill?? Wow, they have the excuses even before it begins
BTW I think, despite her interviews and very low expectations, that Palin will do OK and the MSM will be in raptures about how brilliant she was
Anyone who thinks Palin loses the debate only because of the moderator would likely have voted for her (and McCain) anyway.
Think back to Rudd-Howard. We know some of the panel were perhaps from a less impartial side of the MSM. Did anyone give a damn in the end? Nup.
I can see it now. “I was going to vote for Obama, but because of that biased moderator in the VP debate I’m rethinking my decision.”
Can anone really see that happening? Really?
Given faqct th trooper was a sleeze with 12 convictions by police board and should hav been sacked , following is fair summary of Alaska Democrats misuse of power
“The investigation is led by Democratic supporters of Monegan and Barack Obama and tainted by biased comments to the press, Kevin Clarkson, one of the attorneys representing the plaintiffs, said in a court filing.
Substantial media and public attention is focused on the investigation in light of governor Palin’s nomination as vice president. To have a purportedly unbiased investigation conducted in such a blatantly partisan and unconstitutional manner damages the reputations of Alaska and of its legislators …” Clarkson wrote in the court filing.”
Is there not anything too low for Obama supporters to try Obama
I agree. Debates are all motherhood type non-specific, God bless America statements. She’s good at those.
But she still has 4 weeks to get through after – she won’t be able to avoid the media for the rest of the month.
She’s not so good at putting them into coherent sentences though.
I’m sure so long as she says the key words then that will appeal to her party’s base, but will it appeal to independents? I doubt it.
Maybe that would actually help her – let her off the leash so to speak.
Bentson thrashed Quayle in 1988. And Bush still won 426 – 111 on election day…
McLie’s latest: he has turned to Palin “many times” on foreign policy issues. Well I guess she CAN see Russia from her house!!!
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/01/mccain-palin-advice/
Ah yes, I just wonder how the Obama supporters would react if the shoes is on the other foot.
[Is there not anything too low for Obama supporters] – amigo, do i need to answer this?
Daily Kos/Research 2000 national poll: Obama +11
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/02
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R – KY), Senate Minority Leader, in a dead heat in a battle for reelection.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002968591
Ron
You are quoting Palin’s attorneys argument. That’s the source of your quote. That’s what lawyers do.
I there no depth you won’t sink to in your endless attempts to smear Obama and his supporters.
A person who doesn’t have the confidence to string a coherent sentence together in an interview is supposed to be seriously taken as a backup President of a superpower in financial crisis.
She will be called a success if she is able to not embarass herself in a national debate meant demonstrate abilities to be a backup President? Is she is able to utter one sensible paragraph she will considered ready to take the reins of power. Bizzare.
Sarah Palin will be considered the winner of the debate if she repeats the Rudy Giuliani trick of stringing together a noun, a verb and 9/11 in one sentence…
If the Democrats win this seat it would make up for Tom Daschle losing in I think 2004, when he was the Senate leader.
RCP average now at +5.6 to Obama
Ah yes, I just wonder how the Obama supporters would react if the shoes is on the other foot.
Hop?
Nuts, that’s too much.
I think there’s some overshooting going on here.
I dare so they (we) would be scratching our heads and saying can’t believe those Americans quickly followed by long live McCain, at least 4 years.
The 5.6% lead is a bigger lead than Clinton’s final victory margin over Bush I (5.3%) at 1992. Of course, that election was skewed by the strong showing by Perot.
We are getting closer and closer to the margin of Bush I’s win over Dukakis in 1988, however (7.8%).
Well the Hillary piners keep on saying that Obama should be leading by more… maybe the numbers are right
McCain interviewed on Fox News…
The guy is such a laugh
If McCain’s saying that, he’s admitting that he’s made one of the dumbest mistakes in recent presidential elections.
Oh well…
Just as long as Obama gets 270 that’s fine with me.
Yeah but if he wins my 150 E.C. votes people will say Hilary would’ve won by 250.
This is another lie, in some marginal states he didn’t even stop playing his attack ads on TV.
540
TP, I think you are setting the Limbo Bar a bit high there for Palin. I think that expectations have been driven so low that if Palin appears, sits and breathes she will be declared the debate winner.
The polls are too good to be true, Obama even ahead in North Carolina, Nevada and Missouri, the Dems winning Pennsylvania in a landslide AND comfortably taking Florida and Ohio? I got so burnt in 2000 and 2004, I’m too afraid to believe any of this!
There is an economic crisis evan, and the voters blame the Repubs. Its as simple as that.
I doubt Obama will pick up all of these on election day.
But Nevada has the highest rate of home foreclosures in the U.S., and I believe Florida is second.
I really don’t think Obama is going to pick up North Carolina and Missouri, but at the rate the polls are going he won’t need them.
He won’t even need Ohio if he gets Virginia and Nevada and Colorado.
I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Obama wins Virginia, because of demographic change in that state, particularly in Northern Virginia
I think you might be right
Nate at 538 has stuck the knife into RCP over what does indeed seem to be some fairly suspicious poll selections for the state by state averages. Interesting discussion, and I tend to agree with a lot of what he’s saying. RCP’s methods aren’t transparent, and reincluding ARG polls certainly is a very strange decision.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html
[Nate at 538 has stuck the knife into RCP over what does indeed seem to be some fairly suspicious poll selections for the state by state averages. Interesting discussion, and I tend to agree with a lot of what he’s saying. RCP’s methods aren’t transparent, and reincluding ARG polls certainly is a very strange decision.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html
Wouldn’t it make sense just to include EVERY poll you can possibly find? Isn’t that the best way to produce an accurate result over all?
Or do you have to first make sure they use very similar methodologies?
He doesn’t need VA or NV. He just needs the Kerry states (even without NH) plus NM, CO and IO. I’ll be happy with that.
Strategic Vision poll of Wisconsin
Obama +9 MOE 3% (up 6 from 7/9/08)
RCP is the worst, most partisan source of political information on the net. They were relentlessly anti-Obama re Hillary and they are just the same with McCain. I watch them (and Drudge) only to balance out the Huffington Post and Daily Kos.
I find Bill O’Reilly more balanced than RCP. And I’m not joking.
LOL! RCP even included an INTERNAL POLL by the Senate Minority leader in one of its averages:
http://www.kypolitics.org/kypolitics/2008/09/big-lead-mcconn.html
All the more reason to take heart from their figures giving Obama a 5.6% national, and 353-185 EV lead
The knives are out for the debate moderator.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/gwen.ifill/index.html?eref=time_us
Rasmussen
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Obama 51 McCain 44.
Obama is the same as yesterday, McCain is down 1.
+7 is Obama’s biggest lead for the year.
McCain’s favourable is 52%. This is McCain’s lowest his favorable rating since June 15
Later today, new poll results will be released for New Mexico, Montana, Kentucky and Nebraska.
Can you believe all this started from a blog post?
Now it has been picked up by the MSM, and the McCain campaign. It now sounds like just working over the referee before a grand final.
Daily Kos: Obama 51, McCain 40
That’s the last time I’m reading that poll. Too good to be true!
Insider Advantage polls
FL: Obama +3 MOE 4% (up 11 from 10/9/08)
NV: Obama +1 MOE 5% (up 2 from 10/9/08)
It’s only 4 points off Rasmussen…
RCP is an excellent objective site , and for months Obama supporters quoted daily as a source with RCP %’s , but turned when scrutiny turned finally to Obama , Obama supporters dislike any criticism of there messiah That site provises balanced wide ranging views of credible colunmists to be published , tough if some ar critical of Obama
As for ARG itself , one should let them in due course explain there decision rather than take notice of a VERY BIASED PRO Obama writer like 38….check his site he’s an admitted Obama supporter & writes for that Obama rag DailyKos (and to declare my interst I’ve never taken ARG into any of my calculations but thats my opinion)
My way of thinking is that if Obama goes into election week with all the Kerry states safe, and then with half a dozen states close, then he will probably win at least half of them, and thus the election.
Research 2000 polls
IO: Obama +16 MOE 4% (Obama up 8 from 5 months ago)
IN: McCain +1 MOE 4% (McCain down 7 from 5 months ago)
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
Hotline national poll
Obama +5 MOE 3.3% (up 1 from 17/4)
RCP national average now up to +5.7 to Obama (up 0.1)
Obama is almost double McCain on intrade.
Survey USA New Mexico poll
Obama +8 MOE 3.8% (unchanged from 16/9/08)
These polls just keep increasing or holding for Obama. It’s pretty ominous…
The “Will Obama benefit more than McCain from the V.P. debate” has shot up 4% in about the last hour.
It could be a side effect of all these polls.
It is pretty strange though, because I would’ve thought the higher Obama’s “Win” market gets, the lower his “benefit from the V.P. debate” would go, because if he has such a high base it makes it very hard from him to benefit EVEN MORE from the V.P. debate.
SNIP: Response to deleted post deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Response to response to deleted comment deleted – The Management.
It just hit 67 – 33.5!!!
Ron, a few things:
Electoral-vote, 538.com, pollster.com and even Election Projection all openly display their methods for anyone to see and use. Their political alignment doesn’t come into play because they allow their methodology to be so open. I know you’re still bitter from the primaries, but don’t attack the man, attack the methodology. RCP’s methodology is hidden, and they don’t provide any rational explanation for how it works. They have always been slightly GOP aligned, and by not revealing their methodology, they invite accusations of bias.
RCP is not much more than a newsfeed, with political related articles posted and a selection of polls shown each day. The majority of op-ed pieces linked to each day at RCP are from the right-wing journos and blogosphere. It can be a good source for some quality political writing, but it certainly isn’t the be all and end all that some people claim it to be.
Daily Kos isn’t an “Obama rag”. It’s a left-wing blog, and it isn’t afraid to call Obama out when he does something they don’t like (e.g. appearing on Fox, backflip on FISA). I read both Daily Kos and National Review Online whenever I see an article that interests me, instead of just ignoring someone based on their political belief.
Oh, and ARG polls are absolutely horrible. They might as well just pick two random numbers from a hat and make them the results.
Now the “Will the V.P. debate improve Obama’s chances?” market is starting to come down, simply because his WIN market is so high!
Follow up for you Ron: interview between the two founders of RealClearPolitics, Tom Bevan and John McIntyre and the conservative magazine Human Events.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3827/is_200303/ai_n9233442
Oh OK, so it is basically Fox News Lite. Doesn’t seem so fair and balanced now.
David Letterman: Top Ten “Things Overheard At Palin Debate Camp”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/02/david-letterman-top-ten-t_n_131125.html
Al
I realise you Obama supporters hav difficulty in accepting reality of fact that 38 ADMITS and has admitted since January 2008 to be not just a Democrat supporter BUT an Obama supporter , so if you ar bitter than that is revealed then so be it
Further had you followed 38 against numerous other other sites including those aligned with both th right & th left running 10,000 simulations , it understated Hillarys lead over Obama Furthermore you hav neither done those 10,000 simulations or taken out of there various weightings so you hav made a statement based on belief …on belief of an Obama supporter , that is unobjective
As to your vague claims against RCP what part of there rolling RCP % ’s ar you challenging or again ar you relying on Obama supporter 38 ’s post
Obama supporters seem to sulk & be precous at any Obama criticism , and will not address his non support for ratifying Kyoto , his non support for a universal healthcare
policy and his economic rationist models When you questions you guys on these core “left” issues that Obama does not support , where ar your ‘left’ convictions to criticise him…thats zealotary
And anyone who thinks those biased Obama rags DailyKos (who incidently 38 writes for as well) AND Huffington Post ar balanced media is as foolishly biased pro Obama as Liberals who believe OO ar balanced
Ron seems to think that any person who backs Obama is not entitled to an opinion.
We don’t need you to tell us that Silver is Democratic partisan, it’s disclosed right there in that very post.
But that doesn’t invalidate Silver’s very cogent criticism of RCP’s methodology. You’re only shooting the messenger.
RCP is tipping a big Obama win, Ron. What is your point?
David Walsh
seems to think that a partisan Public site should not be criticised for its blatant partisanism , yet he would no doubt criticise Fox News for being partisan (and so would I) Differnce is I criticise both partisan left & right whereas you defend bias when it suits
BTW , what about policys I challenged on …as usual no comment on
Dinsdale Piranha
I don’t hav a problem with RCP overall , I defended them as valuable site and challenged what was allegedly wrong mathematically with there rolling RCP’s , how did you misinterate th reverse of what I said & what effect do you think th FAVOURABLE Obama results from Quinnipiac influenced th RCP’s
Interesting also comparing electoral vote site , 38 or rather Fox 38 acknowledge not only ar they an a Democcrat Supporter BUT 1/ also an admitted Obama supporter …and 2/ further Fox 38 writes for th very biased since January 2008 pro Obama rag DailyKos Both of these points both Al & David Walsh mysteriously ommitted from there posts
Fox 38 handling of Primarys of his candidate Obama as a rusted on against other Democrats Edwards & Hillary was obvious
Electoral vote site owner is ALSO a Democrat supporter , but is not rusted on to any Democrat , and does not write for a biased rag favouring one Democrat candidate Throughout th whole year electoral site has been balanced and objective
Comparison between th two for objectivity is a joke but then rusted on Obama suporters hav become increasingly bitter about criticism of Obama , and his poor core ‘left’ policys & tend to read only pro Obama OO type Media like Huffington Post & DailyKos , instead of credible quality Media that criticises both candidates Elitist liberals here can not handle any diverse opinion whatsoever ever of there messiah , which is always a sure sign of zero objectivity & religious fervour
More Palin Foreign Policy experience comes unstuck.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1066426/Sarah-Palin-blunders-talks-British-ambassador-took-place-TV-debate-looms.html
WOW …. after living in Michigan for 43 years, look at the gift I got when I woke up this morning
McCain calls stumps in Michigan!!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/02/mccain-pulling-out-of-mic_n_131287.html
Ok and here is the Obama camp’s newest and neatest tool for keeping on top of the voters and making sure everyone gets out to the polls. I am an an automatic update for Obama’s MySpace page and that is how I found out about this.
Juliem that was very funny.
Try this one too Steve
….
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-weinberger/top-10-reasons-sarah-pali_b_130008.html
Juliem, a republican Government nationalising the banks and a VP candidate who is the Republican answer to Pauline Hanson. Roll on 11.00am so we can see the entertainment of the week.
Ron,
99% of political sites are written by politically engaged people… which means that surprisingly they have opinions on candidates and are supporters of someone in the politlcal process. Even all those Rezko articles you link are written by someone with an opinion! Just because someone has an opinion that you disagree with doesn’t mean you should discount what you say… isn’t that what annoys you about Obamabots after all?
Voting Numbers in Colorado ……
I don’t know WHAT this McCain aide was smoking BUT if you add FL, MO, NC, VA, IN and OH that only comes to 97 EV’s
…. they can’t even do their maths right 
From the early voting lines in the state of Ohio -
That’s also a very strange definition of decades by the McCain camp Julie. Clinton won OH and MO twice and FL once.
How soon before McIdiot gives up on Pennsylvania too?
I don’t think they’ve got a chance in hell of winning any blue states, they will have to put all their resources into defending Ohio and Florida, & hope the likes of Colorado and Nevada don’t go to Obama
You know what really pisses me off?
When people that don’t have anything approaching the mathematical and statistical capability required to do some of the numerical analysis that you see around the place, start complaining that because the analyst crunching those numbers has the audacity to actually hold an opinion on anything, then somehow the number crunching itself – despite the methodology being entirely public, despite the methodology being entirely transparent and robust – the number crunching itself must be biased and cannot be trusted.
Now it’s one thing to hold a skeptical view of analysis based on methodological issues as well as argument over whether the results feel right, or look right or compare to other bits of evidence – that’s a good thing and argument over the methodology used and the wider context is the prime means to improve such models, especially with elections.
But to denigrate the modelling (but worse, the person that did it) based on anything other than the modelling framework is just pathetic.
Well no, it’s beyond pathetic – it’s rancid. It’s the type of vacuous horsesh*t that turns political forums into cesspools and drags down debate to the level of two drunks fighting in a park.
There is no such thing as Obamamath, or McCainometrics – there is just analytical robustness of the methodology. 1+1 still equals 2 regardless of ones political beliefs. So anyone that wants to denigrate what Nate Silver and others are doing, or worse Nate Silver himself because of his methodology – put up or STFU.
What is wrong with the *_NUMBERS_*?
David Letterman on Top 10 things overheard at the Palin debate prep camp
….
GO Possum
Just what I’ve been trying to tell my Republican sister (lives in Missouri) all campaign
…… {we have agreed to not discuss politics in email any more as she just doesn’t get it, she’s the only Republican in our family [parents x 2 (both still alive) and 4 children]}
Juliem, the political black sheep eh! They’re good value
Possum, compared to your great analytical skills, us mere mortals rate just higher than the Shanahan on the poll interpreters scale.
Apparently attack is planned for Palin.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14220.html
Possum 606
Here, here, I sympathise. When some people don’t like the answer they prefer to attack the analyst rather than question their own pre-determined conclusion of what they “know” the answer was. I build mathematical models of transport for a living and I experience similar attitudes all the time. Its almost as though some automatically assume that if you are numerate you can’t understand what the numbers mean – just some sort of maths robot that blindly does the sums. Climate change skeptics and other shysters are not much better. For what its worth I find your analysis consistently insightful.
Socrates – I love some of the mathematical models you transport geeks use to simulate the concertina effect of traffic congestion in peak hour. They’re just brilliant!
Some clown hits the breaks 30% harder than usual to stop himself rear ending the car in front (because they werent watching what they were doing) and that single action sends a breaking ripple back through the previous 1.5km of traffic… just brilliant!
I’ve seen some aerial video footage of US highways where they overlaid the graphics of the concertina effect onto the actual traffic itself – waves upon waves of activity all superimposing themselves. It’s … well, its just smashingly geeky!
Or “brakes” even!
I completely agree Possum! The majority of my work is predicting road traffic noise levels using mathematical algorithms that have been tested and calibrated over decades, and have been shown to have an error that is smaller than humans can perceive. Nonetheless, dealing with members of the public who attack you because they don’t like the results, or don’t believe what you are telling them because you work for a company that is contracted to the government is completely infuriating!
What is wrong with the *_NUMBERS_*?
When patheticaly people blame they ‘follow th data to wherever it leads’ but then possums ignore it when its adverse to Obama
Blind faith by Obamabots in a computer generated models whose figures were inconsistent favoring his candidate AND whose partisanship is blatant & public , such moranic elitist arrogance by such supporters
But then rusted on Obamabots hav complete disinterest in core ‘left’ policys anyway PROVED by 6 months of zero criticism of Obama for his non support of core ‘left’ policys
This simply indicates rusted on Obamabots ar worse than Howard supporters who believe in there consevative values , whereas rusted Obamabots arrogantly believe in nothing but trivial intellegentsia policy garbage that normative aussies ar not interested in
Its rancid that numbers geeks think they ar analytical but then where is credibility of anyone you would select Labor to win Kooyong
Poss
Yes they’re called dynamic waves or dynamic queues in the trade and the maths of them is quite interesting. Most people don’t have a very good understanding of what the volume of traffic in a busy road signifies. If a road at capacity is blocked for 6 minutes, it forms a queue one km long.
Also people’s perception of trafffic congestion is often inaccurate since the maths is counter intuitive. Most people assume that when they are stuck in traffic they are in the congested bit. But invariably it is several KM up the road. Similarly the perception of how close to capacity a road is can be misleading. Delay builds up exponentially as capacity is approached. So when traffic grows from 80% of capacity to capacity average delay doubles. This applies to public transport capacity as well as roads. Thus you need to start upgrading transport capacity sooner than a politician might think (or wish to allocate funds for). Makes it very hard for transport planners to persuade decision makers to invest in time. Hence in most countries there is under investment in transport infrastrucutre, irrespective of the decision between roads and public transport.
Al
Solidarity too! We find that a lot of people base their perception on what they see. Plant some trees in front of their view of the road and their perception of the noise improves, even though trees make lousy noise barriers.
Who CARES who he supports, show us what is wrong with his modeling methods? If you can’t, then it is obvious you are just conducting an ad hominem attack.
I’ve got a good example of this, see Ron’s quote above.
Show ONE example of where this has occurred.
Why weren’t you saying this two weeks ago when McCain was leading?
Define what “core ‘left’ policys (sic)” means.
Same tactic as usual, you can’t attack the arguments, so you attack the person. This is the standard rubbish people put out when they don’t have an argument backed up by evidence.
I think today may be McCain’s last stand. The Palin pick was a gamble to shake up the race and to date it hasn’t worked. The polls are showing a McCain wipe out; today’s results are horrible for the GOP. Confidence in Palin among Indies is low, and she’s hurting the ticket given McCain’s age. Palin needs to blow away the perception that she is underqualified and connect with Indies today for McCain to have a chance of overhauling Obama. I think todays VP debate may be more important than any of the presidential debates.
The only numbers that ever got me going is when I got 5 out of 6 lotto numbers.
That is apart from then OO’s strange prediction of a one term government based on a series of polls at around 57/43, but then we know they had ulterior motives for that.
I’m not interested in your pet hates about Obama supporters – honestly, I couldn’t give a toss. But your accusations of model bias from analysts that have the audacity to hold political opinions is a different matter altogether.
Instead of raving on about Obamabots and their evils – why don’t y’ou demonstrate these alleged inconsistent figures that Nate produced? What is wrong with them? How were they inconsistent? If there was inconsistency was it Nates model or was it the polls themselves?
And Ron – I wouldn’t be relying on Adams quips over Kooyong actually being correct if I were you. I take them in good humour (regardless if Adam means to deliver them that way or not) but they aren’t actually right. Those oft mentioned seats (including North Sydney and the notorious rural hamlets of Wannon) came out of the State by State pendulums of large quarterly Newspoll breakdown. As was stated clearly at the time and repeated endlessly since – the individual seats don’t matter (in the same way individual seats dont matter on the national pendulum), only the collective numbers of the seats matter because of the standard deviation attached to a given swing in a given State and local factors affecting each seat.
That methodology (that word again Ron) produces more accurate results for the last 4 elections than does a national pendulum. So the methodology is fine – yet what it does highlight is the real world variability in the polling numbers that are used to plug into that multipendulum methodology.
Again – you fail address the method and choose instead to attack the person behind it.
It’s not good enough.
Can anyone explain to me why on electoral-vote, Colarado seems to be the only Obama state to not really get caught in the ’surge’. Its remained in the ‘barely’ column the whole period. I note that RCP averages have gone from Obama + 0.6% to Obama + 4.4% in the period. This doesn’t take it past the 5% mark (obviously).
Is there something about Colorado that makes it ‘immune’ to the financial crisis (which is what seems to be driving support for Obama)? I note Juliem (i think) posted earlier saying that the Colorado has a higher amount of registered republicans, but that has (I assume) been that way all year. If this is the case, why aren’t Colarado independents moving to Obama with the same strength?
Or have they and i’m just caught up in the fact that the pretty colours aren’t changing?
Ron
I supported Hillary in the primaries precisely because I could see this US recession coming and thought she could handle the situation well. Hence I am not an Obamabot – I just want the republicans kicked out of the white house before they screw up the world even worse. Even so, it seems clear to me that the numbers indicate that Obama will win now. Whether you like that conclusion or not is another question.
Gosh you guys are into it early today. Nothing like an early morning stoush to get the blood flowing. With the debate soon to follow it should be a most interesting day on the blog.
Possum, Socrates, ShowsOn;
Let it through to the keeper, this poster can’t even spell and doesn’t use correct grammar.
Pathetic …. save William’s bandwidth for the main show at 11am
I think we can all agree on one simple thing…that this debate will be better than any of the presidential debates!
Yo ho ho (what a handle BTW!)
Colorado has been doing funny things in the polls all year, with really erratic polls often coming out at the same time from different pollsters. Polls showing Obama up 5 and McCain up 5 in CO being released on the same day sort of thing.
Because of the high Party ID the Republicans have in Colorado, any big national shift away from the Repubs in the polls would be dampened in Colorado specific polls if the sample of the polling company is weighted by raw Party ID figures.
Because the different pollsters treat Party ID in different ways – we end up with really different results.
Interestingly enough though, Intrade has had CO in the Dems column since January this year.
Socrates (623)
I wasn’t a Hillary supporter, but my attitude all along has been the same as your’s. We just cannot afford another four years of republican carnage. The people of the US – not to mention the rest of the world – will pay a very heavy price if Mccain wins. .If Hillary was in Obama’s place right now I would be supporting her to the hilt to get rid of this dangerous mob once and for all.
Hey Ron, you didn’t put a post up on this site did you? It looks like one of yours.
http://vpilf.com/
I believe this is a very popular site. It’s certainly worth a look.
Better? – I’m not sure.
But more entertaining? Definitely!!!
Not wanting to be a spoil sport – but what happens if the debate is a fizzer? If Biden goes all “Just the facts ma’am” and Palin recites her talking point memos competently and refuses to go ad lib, well, it ain’t going to be riveting viewing!
The debate could be an absolute corker, but it also might be the most boring hour of your life that you’ll never get back again!
See Possum, that’s thing that has confused me. It’s clear that Colorado has been rather stable in its support of the Dems all year. It fell out briefly in the Palin jump, but in reality, it has never fallen out. Consequently, my curiousity of its ’stability’.
I think that the high Repug party ID is probably a fair explanation – unfortunately my own understanding of numbers is shall we say, Shanahanesque.
Funny story about Shanahan actually. Whilst many sheets to the wind in my local a few weeks back, i met his daughter (turns out she’s a friend of a friend of a friend). I had to (and i mean HAD to) ask her about her dad’s job and his reaction to not being the most popular ‘analyst’ around, to which her reply was “well everyone complains, but Dad’s always right!”.
So there you go Poss….i think you’ll find Dennis is always right.
For those thinking Palin is the only one making gaffes take a look at these….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKTjlAd-GXM&feature=related
Joe Biden: The Next President Is “Barack AMERICA!”
Biden Gaffe: Asks a Gentleman in a Wheelchair to Stand Up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRV5Y1JCGRI
Joe Biden Gaffe Machine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXrsOe2spDE
Personally I think the VP debate will be very average
If that happens, Palin will be perceived to be the winner, because she didn’t stuff up.
A lesson in handling expectations…
We don’t Glen. We just know he is nowhere near as bad as Palin.
Imho she is looking for the sympathy vote …. perhaps she really did fall and scratch her hand but you hardly need a full scale bandaid for a “boo-boo” ……
yeah but he’s been in politics for 3 decades and he still makes mistakes so give Palin a break!
I would petrified if i was Biden. There is no way he can attack a poor little bunny who hurt its paw… As Adam said weeks ago, he’s going to have to talk to the moderator, the camera and just pretend she aint there.
Well, if Palin completely tanks today then McCain will have to come out swinging for his debates. So that could produce some fireworks.
He should just talk a lot about McCain’s policies. Over the last week Palin has demonstrated that she only has a tentative grasp on what they are.
McCain has to anyway lest he looks like Obama, a weakling!
He’s got to get angry!
He tried this in the first debate and it didn’t work.
Glen – got a question.
Are you really nervous, moderately nervous or not particularly nervous at all about Palin’s performance in the debate?
I want one of those Microsoft Surface screens that the CNN boofheads have!
No I’m not I’m excited about the debate, so long as she doesnt stick to a script.
I dont care if she makes gaffes because that’s being normal! The fact is if she goes with her guts she’ll do well.
BTW how did Ferraro do against Bush in 1984?
So we should give Obama a break too?
It was considered a close Bush win.
So are CNN going to have The Worm?
Well Obama wants to be President…he doesnt make many gaffes but he’s not done alot to deserve to be President….community activist lol!
Glen, your hypocrisy is refreshing
Lecturer in Public Policy at Harvard (they give these jobs to anyone)
State Senator
U.S. Senator
ShowsOn – yep, their describing the swivel device as we speak
I can’t get the CNN stream to work for some reason. So I hope you do running commentaries like last time.
Yes please. I can’t bear to watch it live…
Sounds as if the Repubs STILL don’t have the votes in the house for the bailout bill. So much for McCain suspending his campaign to get it done. He’s hopeless.
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/no_bailout_vote_tomorrow.html
I’ve opened a new thread specifically for discussion of the debate. This one is staying open for general discussion of the election.
So I give a diverse opinion resulting in 2 hours of complements but not to be worried about keystrokes , ….
and yet for 6 months th rusted on Obamabots hav believed ALL diverse opinion without exception from Ron or FINNS or GG or anti other non supporter of Obama is 100% wrong such blimd fith on one hand and such 100% dismissal of diverse opinions is elitist arrogance that only yous ar right on all
Fact is no rusted on Obama supporter has ever criticised Obama’s non support of core ‘left’ policys , non support ratifying Kyoto , no universal healthcare policy , has nuanced econamic rationalist models etc
Furthermore Obama , no rusted on Obama supporter hav never criticised Obama on aLL of th above “politcal correct” policys like Obama supports death penalty executions , worse death penalty executions even when no murder is involved , overturning an EXISTING Law passed by th Washington coty that banned carrying hand guns in Washington City , non criticism for disgraced Valdez case decision , supporting immunity for illegally wiretapping Telcos who worked for Bush , th most extreme of extremist views on Abortion , allowing viable babies to die without medical assistance from abortions
Then there ar some of his extreme & dangerous FA views
BUT key ‘left’ POLICYS ar of NO interest to rusted on Obama supporters , never for 6 months hav th “rusted on ” had any interest and only an elitist intellegentsia could treat them with such disdain….or a closet Liberal
Before we discuss the debate, the IMF has put out a hardly surprising forecast that the US is likely to go into recession:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/03/2381245.htm
The main point here is that for thoise who think the financial issue will dissappear quickly, it won’t.
SCORPIO , SWING LOWE , SOCRATES AND AL
never regarded yous as rusted on Obama supporters , but in varying degrees today or yesterday joined th “ron sport” I’m not objecting to anyone having a go at me by th way , but some of your comments were less than i expected
But then how does a non rusted on Obama blooody reasonably ‘engage’ with th
derided enemy of rusted on Obama supporters without wearing some taint
Gneral comments only All public commentators do hav some personal politcal interest , and th minority ar those that can divorce th personal opinion and be objective Th Age paper & Michelle Grattan comes to mind biased Media ar those that blatantly push one side or one cndidate eg. Fox , Bill o’reilly , an coulter , Rush Lumbraph
For ANY “left” person to suggest that US does NOT hav th Foz equivlent on th ‘right’ is biased & unobjective DailyKos & Huffington Post ar th ‘left’ equivalents…which rusted on Obama supporters regulalrly quote fro Why should not th ‘right’ glen quote Fox News with EQUAL ACCEPTED impartiality here on this site You will not accept that at all IF glen said well some of there stuff is reasonable and should be accepted as impartial , rusted on Obama supporters would still label it as anti Obama and ‘right’ bias
Same principal applies to DailyKos & huffington Post , Like Fox news those rags may hav intersting sstuff to read ..occasiobally BOTH BIASED ‘RIGHT’ AND BIASED ‘LEFT’ WILL CRITICISE but ON WHOLE its still imbeded biased News overall just like Fox News
So I do NOT take notice of DailyKos or huffington Post at all …and for same reason i take no notice of fox News , Bill O’Reilly , Ann cCoulter etc either In prmarys i read quality Media that constructively criticised Hillary & obama …and note ususally there criticism of hillary i agreed with it was objective & reasoned Same with Obama ususally th criticism i agreed with as it was objective & reasoned
YET on this site rusted on Obama supporters hav never worn any criticism of Obama or his non left policys ..usually such policy based posts ofmeet with silence …BUT QUALITY media hav regullalrly criticised his non support for core ‘lerft policys , his flips on key ‘politicaly correct & ‘liberal’ policys or his zero support of them in first place AND they do same to McCain
As to methodologies , all th THEORETICALS can be fine but garbage in garbage out , flawed criteria in & it comes out , ditto flawed weightings , mixed samples To believe in a particular number person in US as th god is foolish i believe , in fact 99% of bloggers can not state th guy is perfect anyway
He is not a god , there ar numerous other sites i’ve visited regulalry & when i’ve seen his output overr months inconsistent with other data from both many ‘left’ and ‘right’ sites whos patterns ar similar & there’s this inconsistency I query th partisanism of that person or his above settings , people do not like that ..tough , ….what is it suggested ALL political pundits use this 38 as there bible …nonsense ..and and maybe open ones eyes that in US there ar others they ar not gods either…and neither ar marsupials who i’ve never taken alot of notice of either seeing there ar ALSO numerous experts more experienced in ‘oz’
I told you Palin would do well if she stuck to being herself!
On ya Sarah!
Ron, no one said he was God – that wasn’t the question regardless of how convenient a red herring it might be.
It was purely entertainment value, Glen.
Well Ron, whats your prediction for the US pres. election outcome? Lets just talk about polls and prediction. Who do you think will win, and by how much. Second question, any mathematical/data basis for Q1?
Glen!! who do you rate higher Julie Bishop or Sarah Palin and why?
MediaCurves shows Indies breaking 2-1 to Biden for the debate on all topics. I get the feeling that probably means the result is status quo. No ground-shattering changes to the race in either direction.
http://www.mediacurves.com/
They’re different though!
Julie is no Palin and Palin is no Julie.
They come from different backgrounds….
But I must admit I like Palin even though i disagree with her views on abortion ect. I probably would be a moderate Republican if i were an American like Giuliani.
You’d be a crossdresser Glen?
He did it for charity Dario, GROW UP!
What about me? I supported Clinton during the primaries.
What has this got to do with implying that POLL MODELING is biased, without explaining how it is biased?
This is a Sarah Palin answer. Big on generalities, but low on specifics. Point to a SPECIFIC example of a polling methodology problem. On 538.com or Possum’s modeling.
Explain his “non-left policys (sic)”. If you try to explain what you mean, then we can have an informed discussion.
“political correctness” was a term invented by right wing politicians to attack left wing politicians. Plus, I consider it politically correct of you to attack PEOPLE instead of their arguments. That is a right wing version of political correctness.
Who said he was god? I don’t believe in god, so this must be wrong.
They should make Sarah Palin the POTUS candidate and McCain the VP.
72% of independents support Biden’s answer regarding vice presidential responsibilities (i.e. saying that Cheney is the most dangerous V.P. the U.S. has ever had, and rejecting Cheney’s idea that the V.P. exists in a legal netherworld somewhere between the executive and legislature.
That would be like George W. Bush running again – only dumber…
George W Bush with boobies
The completely unscientific Australian poll:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Biden 60
Palin 34
Draw 7
Oh come on Glen… can’t you take a joke?
Ron, I hope you didn’t take offense at my post @ 629.
It wasn’t meant to have a go at you, just pointing out the similarity in style to some of “your” comments.
I’m certainly “not” a fanatical Obama supporter and respect your right to not be impressed by him at all.
I wish to stress that I do enjoy your posts and would not in any way wish to hurt your feelings.
BTW, did you check out the link @ my 629. I am sure you would enjoy it.
Jokes are fine but for gods sake that ones been used tooo much!
There is something wrong with crossdressing ?
*adjusts bra strap nervously*
Dick Morris has just wet himself, as usual.
did anyone hear the final total for the number of times the word ‘maverick’ was used?
I was following The Guardian’s live blog of the debate, and they were playing a drinking game where ‘maverick’, ‘hockey mom’ and ‘Joe six-pack’ were trigger words
several people collapsed from alcoholic poisoning and one person required an ambulance.
Finns
Palin has already referred to McCain as “her running mate” once. Perhaps Intrade should start a “Palin to replace McCain on top of ticket” market.
What did he say?
Why would McCain go to Michigan to campaign, then leave and have his campaign announce that he has given up on winning there?
Why did he bother going there at all? Why didn’t he spend the time in another swing state?
Because his campaign is a shambles
Exactly.
He was in Iowa on Monday, even though Obama is up there by nearly 10.
Intrade has Obama at 66.6
Dio went:
No no no Dio – Intrade needs to start a market on the likelihood of an Intrade market starting on “Palin to replace McCain on the top of the ticket!”
Ronster
You are making a bad mistake if you ignore all information that you see as partisan. First of all, it’s hard to judge what is partisan. Secondly, you miss out on what the other side thinks. If I didn’t read RCP and Drudge, I’d never know how the right are spinning the election. Thirdly, sometimes the other side is right about something and you need to change your opinions.
I spent last night watching youtubes of Bill O’Reilly, who is probably the loudest mouth on the Right. I disagreed with a lot but some things he was right about. He had a fantastic interview with Marilyn Manson about whether Manson had a bad effect on US youth. MM was in costume and I expected Bill to start screaming abuse at him. But MM is uberintelligent, disarming and humble and Bill worked that out very quickly and they had an incredibly respectful interesting interview. It was one of the most amazing interviews I’ve seem.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucnA8ElvZQA
Watching McCain is sad, I really think he would have been a better candidate in 2000 than Bush and a better President but we will never know.
This is starting to look more like a landside for Obama with the only real danger being his supporters choosing to stay home on election day.
O’Rielly is certainly capable of good interviews… his recent one with Obama was very well handled and went over some interesting points. Unfortunately his psycho interviews and rants have dominated.
Looking good for Obama and Biden to smash McCain and Palin.
Dario
You can imagine Bill being respectful of the next POTUS, but Marilyn Manson? He got MM on as part of a “children at risk” topic. MM is the poster boy for evil rock influences (personally I don’t like his music). But both MM and BOR actually listened to each other and I’m sure they learnt something.
Re 689,
Not going to happen
….. the black vote will turn out in droves … Reverse Bradley effect ….. are you kidding? they will all want to say that they voted for him ….. you might see record black turnouts ….
And if all information is partisan, then the proposition that all information is partisan is also partisan, and thus the statement is nonsensical.
I completely agree, because back then he had principles that didn’t involve lying. Unfortunately Bush won the 2000 primary by basically trashing McCain as a person. McCain took note of this, and now is trying to do the same thing to Obama.
true
I think Glen is exactly right.Their mistake with Palin was trying to get her to be something she is not consequently she looked like a complete goose in her interviews. It is like tell a batsman to bat some other than what the naturally do – they will eff it up. The natural Palin is at least the more coherent Palin though with little knowledge.
Mason-Dixon poll has McCain leading 48-45 in Virginia.
actually poss
I was thinking of starting a market on whether Intrade needs to start a market on the likelihood of an Intrade market starting on “Palin to replace McCain on the top of the ticket!
but then my brain started hurting
I didn’t see much of the natural Palin today. She generally seemed to be reciting catch phrases and buzzwords that rarely related closely to the questions she was asked.
William @ 697,
The sympathy vote
MOE 4% on that poll
And your point? lol
Further to William’s post at 697, a full list of today’s polls:
CO (Ciruli): Obama +1
GA (InsiderAdv): McCain +6
KY (Rasmussen): McCain +10
MI (PPP): Obama +10
MT (Ras): McCain +8
Nat (Gallup): Obama +5
Nat (Ras): Obama +7
Nat (Hotline): Obama +5
Nat (Battleground): Obama +5
Nat (Marist): Obama +5
NE (Ras): McCain +19
NM (Ras): Obama +5
NM (SurveyUSA): Obama +8
NC (Ras): Obama +3
PA (Morning Call): Obama +9
VA (Mason-Dixon): McCain +3
Mason-Dixon had the Repuplicans leading 47/44 in their last poll on the 20th September.
SL @ 703, think McCain can write off NM at this point
The CNN coverage says that Palin’s performance simply reassured republicans that McCain’s VP choice was not a failure of judgement.
The Republicans must be getting quite worried about the clear signs that McCain is in trouble in big swing states, including Florida and Ohio. The polls are starting to get a little too consistent for comfort from their point of view. They can’t go in relying on some sort of latent racism to swing it 4-5%.
That’s probably right – in reality, neither side scored a really big goal or own goal in the debate, so it just maintains the status quo and perhaps relieves the internal pressure on McCain a bit.
Wonderful! But I can’t see how that helps them win the election.
It doesn’t
Juliem! your point about Black voters is an Interesting one, I may be misstaken but I’m under the impression that the South has a very large Black population, if that is correct could that bring a few Southern states into play
Did anyone see Insight this week? Interesting discussion between young New Yorkers regarding the upcoming election.
I was reading an American left-wing blog and it made an Interesting point about Sarah Palin saying the toxic mess causing the economic problams were caused by Main Street when everyone even McCain are blaming Walls Street, the comment ended with a nasty remark that since Sarah Palin is from Main Street was she “a Toxic mess” ouch
Can’t see it happening. States like Louisiana (over 30% black population IIRC) are still solid McCain.
Yes, since she was simply reciting talking points, rather than thinking, she got confused, and blamed main street when she meant Wall street.
Dario!! Louisiana has elected Democrat Govenors but as you say its still solid for McCain.
Yeah, they don’t do much polling down there, but the polls they have done just haven’t shown any movement to Obama at all. It’s an interesting one when you consider that most national polls have shown him getting something like 95% of the black vote.
…not to mention that most people from New Orleans would have very negative memories of Bush after Katrina
Most Southern states will still vote for McCain, regardless of the black vote.
Why? Because the Democrats poll extremely poorly in white votes in the deep South. The Democrats only need something like 30% of the white vote in Mississippi to win it – yet, they’re still going to go down by about 10 points this time.
The solid south is still solid – it’s just that it’s solid for the GOP rather than the Dems…
Again, poor southerners have much more to lose from a Republican adminstration, yet they let values/perception driven voting dominate to their own deteriment.
That is something which appears to be overlooked!! I’m aware that New Orleans is a very strong Democrat town but still I would have expected when Katrina happened that States like Louisiana would be a lot closer.
I see that Obama is leading by 3 points in North Carolina and is ahead in states like Colordo.
btw: there is a rumour circulating that it was Tina Fey at the debate this afternoon. The real Palin was kidnapped and kept in a motel room until the Nov4.
Which country will cope a bombing for that outrage! maybe New Zealand
Why do Democrats poll so poorly with Southern White voters
Their positions on god, guns and abortion.
Most of the people who permanently left New Orleans after Katrina were African Americans – the core Democratic constituency in Louisiana.
What’s driving Obama’s strength in NC and (to a lesser extent) VA is a combination of African American votes (who will turn out in higher numbers this year) and the recent migration of ex-Yankees (northern liberals/moderates) to the New South. VA and the NC are the main exponents of the New South, although GA, with Atlanta, is also increasingly becoming one. No surprise, therefore, that the 3 strongest states for Obama in the South (excluding Florida) are VA, NC and GA…
Mexicanbeemer,
When Lyndon B. Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act in 1964 overturning Jim Crow laws, and racial segregation, he said “I think we just delivered the South to the Republican Party for a long time to come”. Before that the Solid South had always voted Democrat.
Nixon used the Civil Rights Act to appeal to conservative, segregationist voters with terms like “state’s rights” and “law and order” which were terms for Southern dog whistling. The Southern demographics have always been to the right side of the contries political spectrum since the days of cotton farming pre US Civil War. If you’ve never been to the US, it can be hard to understand, but the US has some very complicated geopolitics.
Why are they moving? Is it cheaper to live there?
I agree with Glen and TP696 – Bush never came across as a genius in 2000 but he seemed sincere and the not too questioning majority liked that. That was enough to win. But if Palin just looks like someone reading cue cards she has no appeal at all.
MB @ 711 & Dario @ 714,
It all depends on the relative turnouts between the racist component of the voting bloc and the blacks. I don’t know if it will be enough to turn any of those states over to Obama but it might bring margins in?
And it isn’t like Bush exactly won in landslides. The last 2 elections were some of the closest ever.
I would concede that in 2000 Bush seemed to be competent. I question whether Palin comes across as being competent in such a position.
(Of course regarding Bush, I turned out to be wrong).
I agree.
But if there is HUGE turn out of African-American voters, then hopefully the racists will be intimidated and stay home.
Yes, the cheaper cost of living is a lot cheaper in the South. A house in Atlanta used to cost (in 2005 – not sure what the situation is now) one-third of the price of a similar house in New York.
The other reason is the climate and the fact that there is lower population density – which makes it perceived as a “nicer place to raise the kids”.
Also, these states have had relatively strong economic growth compared to Northern industrial states like MI, OH and PA – leading to more jobs being created there.
Exactly right. His win in 2000 was despite Gore winning the popular vote.
Al! No I’ve not been to the U.S but has a long time follower of Politics I’m long been aware that the South from the Clivil War till the 1960s was strong for the Democrats and since President Johnson has been strong for the Republicans.
And as the case in Australia, Canada and the U.K the major parties have heartlands but with how the Bush Administration has performed and with the state of the Economy and with McCain seeming to be past his prime yet the Democrats still are unable to improve
Yes, I’m aware that President Bush as played hard to the southern states values but at some point I would Image these areas would want to know why they haven seen the benefits of Americas great economy which is now falling apart around them
2004 was a confortable win and 2000 was as the Late Tim Russert would say was “Florida Florida Florida” people talk about Al Gore being unlucky but had he carryied his home state he would have won.
Sorry, but it’s not going to happen. The Democrats just don’t get anywhere near enough white votes to hope to carry these states unless they pull of a Reagan-esque landslide (which doesn’t seem likely, even on the current polling)
I’ll eat my hat if MS or AL flip to Obama. The only southern states that Obama has a credible chance are VA, NC, and possibly GA (and FL, if you count it as being a southern state).
I believe Mississippi has two Congress seats, one of which votes Democrat
True! we should be realistic about what will change afterall this time last year comments were made that seats like Kooyong and North Sydney were falling to KRudd
I think historically a 35 vote E.C. difference is pretty close (I mean if you take it as a percentage and apply it to other elections.
Or New Hampshire
New Hamshire is again looking close! Is there a reason why it looks close?
Mississippi has 4 House seats, 3 of which are held by Dems.
But that doesn’t mean that Obama will win it. All 3 congressman are conservative (or blue dog) Dems who ideologically are probably closer to McCain than Obama.
There’s a similar situation in Arkansas – Dems hold 3 out of 4 House seats, both Senate seats and the Governor’s mansion…
That seems unusal that one party can dominate the Congress seats but not be a change to win.
This should have everyone scared about electronic voting machines, if they weren’t already…
http://www.news8.net/news/stories/1008/558138.html
As Swing Lowe said, many of those reps are probably closer to McCain in ideology than Obama
I think N.H. has a large elderly population which is according to national polls is the only demographic McCain is winning.
Also I think generally the citizens hate gun control laws, Obama supports gun control, McCain doesn’t.
It is basically a dead heat, but it doesn’t matter much, it’s only worth like 4 votes. Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina would be a lot more important.
NH used to be a GOP stronghold but turned blue during the Clinton years.
It’s more libertarian than the country as a whole, which favours McCain, and has a history of electing “mavericks” to Congress (which also helps McCain).
McCain also has been historically successful there. He got a surprise win in the GOP primary in NH in 2000 which put him in the race in the first place and his win in the GOP primary earlier this year reignited his campaign. So it’s safe to think that a lot of the support for McCain is more to do with McCain and less to do with the Republican party.
NH is interesting. I would have thought the older vote was having second thoughts too now that the share market has tanked. An astute democrat would point out what a continuation of republican economic policy will do to retirement incomes. Retirees are the biggest losers from share market collapses, because they have the most invested in them.
reading about Glen’s excitement after the debate, I had to again ask myself if Palin was Obamas running mate why would I think. And I cant believe I could or would support her. She is so utterly unprepared and unqualified. SURELY even conservatives can see that- well so conservatives can and have, but the unquestioning ones just toe the party line. Are there ANY conservatives here prepared to share even the slightest doubts about Palin, you who banged on endlessly about Obama’s apparent lack of experience???
of course Obama hasnt got the impulsivity or poor judgement to have chosen someone like Palin
From Politico
In essence, it was a professional up against an amateur. Of course the professional won.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14235.html
CBS poll of undecideds gave it to Biden, 2:1. A good result in the voting bloc that counts
Battleground national tracking poll
Obama +7 MOE 3.5% (up 2)
The surge continues…
RCP national average now at +5.9 to Obama. The worst current poll for Obama is at +3.
Janet: brilliant commentary as always.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/charmed_by_charisma_of_one_of_their_own/
Er, no GP, what scares them about her is that she is way out of her depth and could be President one day
No, the series of gaffes prior to that probably did the trick
If this was the case, would’ve she attacked community organisers during her nomination speech?
I don’t consider “We have got not to allow …” an example of straight talk. I think it is a good example of completely bent talk.
And the really sad part GP is that Planet Janet probably thinks that’s clever.
Palin’s electoral problems don’t stem from the left wing press – they stem from Sarah Palin. Palin undoubtedly mobilises Republican voters, but Republican voters that nearly always vote and were always going to vote Republican regardless.
Her problem is that she’s ignorant, but hasnt developed a facade of hiding it behind a wall of well developed cliches like so many other ignorant, yet successful politicians from both sides of the isle have done.
Palin would be an exceptional politician if she cures her ignorance (which is entirely possible) or an mediocre yet eminantly re-electable one at the Federal level is she goes down the baffle with bullshit route.
But at the moment – she’s neither, and it turns most voters off. You only have to look at the favorability polling or the “ready to be president” polling to see that play out in reality, as opposed to the shallow end of the gene pool nonsense that Planet Janet herds cats with.
Wasn’t there the risk that large numbers of normally dependable Republicans might have stayed at home if they only had the Godless McCain to vote for?
Sure, but Palin wasn’t the only possible choice to pull in those votes…
I think they would be doing better with Romney, he has good economic credentials.
(This is my version of “Hilary would’ve been leading by 20″)
I think Palin is a polarising figure. Sure she may be energising the base, but it seems to me that over the last month it has come at the expense of independent voters where the Democrats now have a 5 – 10% lead in most national polls.
If Palin was Democrat no doubt she would be ripping her to shreds saying how dangerously ignorant she is of all things and, should barely be in a race for Governor let alone VP or some such.
I am surprised that anyone wastes their effort to read her.
It seems that way Billbowe – but while Palin might “energise the base” to repeat a far too already repeated cliche, she’s also sunk like a balloon with the independents and on the cross tabs with soft Democrat voters.
In a turnout contest between tertiary educated/black/youth/(and now increasingly hispanic) demographics and what Palin brings to the table, there doesn’t seem to be any real contest – especially since Palin alienates the very voters that delivered Bush Ohio and Florida and probably Colorado and New Mexico to boot.
It was a strange choice – although not so strange when one considers that it was thrust upon McCain by the moonbat express wing of the GOP.
If McCain was to have a female VP candidate it should have been a competent intelligent one, not the opposite. He ended up with a redneck female with average Alaskan intelligence and knowledge. In reality she is the joke candidate. They wont try this trick again.
My guess is it would’ve been an article attacking affirmative action and the tokenism of having an unqualified woman on the ticket.
Remember, Albrechtsen has praised Gillard as Deputy P.M. by saying that she now has a more “centrist” accent!
The fact she very, very rarely replies to replies to her posts suggests to me that a) she’s not interested in reasoned debate b) she doesn’t understand the interactive purpose of blogs.
Rasmussen Obama +10 in New Hampshire
BAM!!!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election
Slate.com iPhone poll tracking application (Costs $1.19)
http://www.slate.com/id/2200655/
Holy crap! Most other polls have it like within a range of + or – 2
This is the first major poll out of NH in a week though. This one was actually up 12 points!
Here’s the key stat:
Add this to the fact Palin’s favourability is 47% (The lowest out of the 4 candidates)
Together these stats make me think Palin is sending a lot of female voters to Obama.
Same deal in Virginia where 45% of women had highly unfavourable views of Palin.
True to an extent, but you can’t deny that Palin reinvigorated the McCain campaign 5 weeks ago when she was nominated.
She turns you off Possum. She has an approval rating of 68%!
in alaska.
New SRBI poll of NH has Obama up 12. That’s NH in the bag I’d say.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5juburdSSdigTLtmCg6Ez87e67L_gD93ILRAG0
…with 3 electoral college votes
What if Mitt Romney – a successful businessman and former Governor – was against Biden today? Wouldn’t his economic credentials have helped? That’s what’s killing McCain at the moment. Obama leads on economic management by 10 – 15%, and it is seen as the #1 issue of the election.
Even Karl Rove thinks McCain is stuffed:
http://www.rove.com/election
SurveyUSA has McCain 47-Obama 46 in Minnesota.
Minnesota still tight perhaps…
Survey USA
McCain +1, MOE 3.7% (prev Obama +2)
RCP average now Obama +5% in MN
hahaha too quick William
Interesting article on party registrations:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_rhodes_cook/democrats_winning_the_registration_wars
Main point: There are 29 states where voters register by party affiliation, in the 2004 election there were 9 million more registered Democrats than Republicans. There are now 11 million more Democrats than Republicans.
GP @ 771
It was the kind of reinvigoration that the Republicans could probably have done without.
By the Reps having their convention second, they were in the problematic position of having any convention bounce being very likely to fade (as convention bounces nearly always do). But by fading in the home stretch it naturally gives the Democrats momentum in the home stretch.
What the Reps didnt want was a big bounce that was ethereal because it was likely, over the following 2 weeks, to turn into an equally large big Obama clawback leading into the debates where Obama was always likely to clobber McCain because Obama is a natural speaker and although McCain has many talents – public speaking has never really been one of them!
So a weak yet superficially popular VP was probably the worst possible choice for it not only gave Obama a larger sense of momentum leading into the final stretch (as the Reps convention bounce faded) but also allowed him to consolidate it with the first debate (which he was probably always going to do) – exaggerating his claim for momentum. As a result of Palin, win expectations for the Democrats went ballistic and I think ended McCains campaign the day he chose Palin.
And yes, Planet Janet does turn me off. She’s the perfect example of everything that is currently ruining that great institution ‘The Australian’.
I expect my columnists to have more horsies under the bonnet – so to speak.
When you say:
In Alaska?
heh!
No 776
He’s a Mormon and thus would not have done well with the conservative base of the party. Despite the constant criticism of Palin, she appeals to the base and that was the very thing that was at risk of oblivion in the forthcoming election prior to her nomination.
Oh please. Junk like Philip Adams and David Marr does more damage to the cause of Australian journalism.
But to WIN the election you need to win a decent majority of independents.
Read the article I liked to above, there are three swing states Nevada, Colorado, Ohio where a majority of voters are independents.
It doesn’t make sense to me rallying the base at the expense of the independent voters who will decide the election.
Possum, only a deluded Democrat would have pronounced Obama’s first debate performance as a consolidation of momentum. He was pretty average. Heck, Biden performed better.
How so?
Albrechtsen’s attempt to tie the deputy P.M.’s accent to ideology was the type of free associative piffle that gets a red mark through it on a year 12 English essay.
I conceded there are perfectly sensible (but wrong) conservative writers like Gerard Henderson.
No use having the independents mobilised in your favour but your base sitting at home.
Well, he looked relaxed and competent. That is all he needs to do, because McCain has made himself the risky choice by selecting Palin.
Krauthammer (not exactly Obama’s best buddy) makes this point in today’s article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/obama_passing_the_reagan_thres.html
So average that his poll numbers just keep climbing and climbing. Good one GP.
The die hards would’ve turned up anyway. McCain sucked up to Jerry Falwell and Bush enough over the last few years.
GP @783
Phillip Adams has been a fluff piece for years that doesnt pretend, nor the audience expects to be serious. A bit like Malcolm Colless from the other side of the political spectrum in The Oz (although I’m sure both would disagree rather vehemently). Honestly – have you ever met anyone that takes them seriously?
David Marr is a Fairfax journo – they have a whole different set of problems.
The Oz is an important institution and for the last few years has been diving into a ditch of mediocrity.
It’s a shame becuase we’ll all pay for it in the end. The Oz has the best hope of all the treeware outfits of retaining serious and credible journalism as an institution. But their persistance in keeping second and third rate columnists reduces the paper to tosh.
And if you want tosh – you can get it for free elsewhere. Short term political demographic positioning as a long term financial solution is a mugs game they will lose.
RCP has just pulled todays Battleground poll from their averages! It was there for about an hour, now it’s gone. Man those guys are dodgy… find a poll that goes too far too Obama and out it goes.
Rasmussen national tracking Obama +7 again
Rasmussen link
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
GP at 785 – it doesn’t matter what we think, it matters what US voters think, and US voters have liked Obama talking since day dot.
We saw the Rep convention bounce fade, we saw Obama use it in the media as a consolidation of momentum, we saw Obama cement that momentum in with the debates. If you have any doubts, click my name and check out the Daily Intrade/Gallup tracker on the right in the sidebar and follow the dates and the movement yourself.
No 791
You have still yet to identify the criticisms you have toward The Oz’s journalists. I can probably agree with you in respect of Shanahan, but I would not agree that Janet is second-rate. And who do you consider to be “first-rate”? What is your standard?
Something very wierd with GW Battleground… they’ve pulled todays results from their own site and RCP is now showing it at +3 Obama
Hotline national poll
Obama +6 (up 1)
Seems Battleground may have accidentally reported their single day figure instead of the 3-day tracking number, so Obama went from +7 to +3 in the space of an hour!
GP went:
There’s plenty of first rate journos just at the News Ltd stable alone – Megalogenis, Patricia Karvelas, Lenore Taylor, Dennis Atkins, David Uren and Sam Maiden to name a few.
But their value add in the opinion section and increasingly in their analysis pieces is too often third rate rubbish.
If I want to read tosh – I’ll buy the daily Tabloid. When I, once upon a time, wanted to read good quality copy I used to buy The Oz – but no more unless I have to. If I want decent copy now, I buy the Fin Review.
There are far better right wing writers out there than the current stable of minature ponies that occupy the place – many already working within the News Ltd stable!
Most of the current crop are treated as irrelevant because the paper is still operating like it’s 2006. You cant run a paper of influence if the pointy end if the influence stick has none, and doesn’t cut the mustard to be able to build any in a new political environment.
Put it this way – if Planet Janet was sacked tomorrow and started up her own blog, how many people do you think would read her and would she ever have anything to say that would ever be worthy of impacting upon anything?
Um, she makes um nonsense, such as the Deputy P.M.s accent gives a clue of her political ideology.
In her drool encrusted article about Downer’s retirement she asserted that
conservatives have a better sense of humour than progressives without providing absolutely any evidence to back up such a stupid assertion.
She makes up whatever nonsense suits her argument of the day.
I think Paul Kelly and George Megalogenis are both worth reading. Except Kelly is always searching for “paradigm shifts”, some of which only seem to exist in his head.
I actually like reading Tony Abbott’s articles, he is a very good writer. He should’ve offered to proof read Costello’s book so that it sounded some what more engaging than a ministerial brief.
It’s Teh Narrowing Dario!
ShowsOn – the Mad Monk should never have left journalism, he was much better at it than politics.
Hahaha
US job losses in September the highest in 5 years, making it nine months in a row of losses
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/159K_jobs_lost_in_September_most_in_5_years.html
No 803
Abbott for PM.
Australian conservative commentary pales compared to U.S. conservative writers. At the very least the best of them tend to know how to put arguments together.
Like look at this David Brooks article from Monday. He traces two trends of U.S. conservatism – the conservative establishment and the anti-establishment populist strands – then relates them back to Sarah Palin and the current campaign: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/opinion/30brooks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Whether you agree or disagree with it, you can’t go past the fact he has put an argument together by applying some history to the current state of affairs.
Her blog would probably be flagged for plagiarism.
The way he writes I think you’re right. I read that he wants to RETIRE after politics. Does that mean he is going to be there until he is sixty? When he is balled and has frame-less glasses, capped teeth and bushy eyebrows?
There’s another two days wrapped up for Obama. He just needs to visit 3 battle ground states and repeat this stat over and over.
Got to say that the Fin Review is the only paper I buy as well. The others I read online. My favourite is the Weekend edition – excellent analysis of the week’s news.
Who’s treating them as irrelevant? The Left? To be expected.
Do we still have a Right in this country?
I thought we just had whingers who complain at any signs of social progress.
Where’s the evidence that she’s plagiarised? I noticed that she threatened Media Watch with a defamation suit for accusing her, on pretty piss poor evidence, of plagiarism.
Shows on went:
It’s not just the US but the UK as well. I quite often do a surf by click journey through the UK and US media, and the volume and quality of both conservative (in the orthodox sense) and right wing (in the modern sense) writing far surpasses the drivel we get spoon fed in Australia.
And online it’s the same story. Who can name a right wing Australian blogger that produces consistently high quality kit from that political perspective?
Outside of strict economics there are none and for that we all lose out.
One of the most destructive legacies that Howard left was a moribund conservative movement devoid of both talent and insight.
When Quadrant is the best you have – a government subsidised nursing home for Menzien has-beens in dire need of some diversional therapy, well, you know you’re in deep deep shit.
It’s a real pity – political life is enriched by intellectual diversity.
Oh yeah true. Back then she was in her try hard investigative journalist phase, which involved completely misrepresenting academic research.
These days she has simplified her approach – rather than misrepresenting people – she just makes up rubbish from thin air.
What some describe as social progression, others describe as social regression.
Does Catallaxy count? Failing that, I’ll put in a good word for The Currency Lad.
I thought that’s where all the former Democratic Labor types get published?
I can think of no left wing blogger that produces consistently high quality kit either. By your unknown and unidentified standard, the entire spectrum of Australian opinion writers are talentless.
Ah, so we finally have your cards out on the table.
Loved this comment on Daily Kos
What’s McCain done to piss off New Hampshire? 49-37 to Obama, according to the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College.
Ditto.
1) The government.
2) Industry.
3) Labour.
A trifecta of irrelevance.
People like Milne, Shanahan, Planet Janet and the likes could once write columns and have an impact.
But that was then and this is now.
Now, insider gossip on the government has run dry, mythological polling interpretations no longer carry weight and “insider status” has no real currency in today’s media.
The Oz needs to catch up or they, and we, as not only top tier media consumers but in these days of interactive wonder, participants as well, we’ll lose. And that’s not a good thing.
We need more good media, not more good media becoming poorer quality media.
What you are really saying – to paraphrase Daniel Moynihan – is that you think culture determines whether a society succeeds or fails. Whereas I think politics can reshape culture, and thus save it from itself.
I know of one Right -Wing blog that makes alot of sense! “Politically Homeless” written by a former member of the Liberal Party! The author spends alot of time highlighting problems within the Liberal Party.
Selected Palin.
Yeah Milne can’t wait for Costello to write another book so he has inside scoops to write about.
I think the big thing in that regard this year has been Q&A. I think it has been very good. Diverse views and interactive, and more answers to questions from the pols than question time.
Catallaxy – Not really, because libertarianism is still (and will remain for a long time in Australia unfortunately) as an insular fringe movement that tends to eat itself.
I like CL too – glad he’s back. More PJ O’Rourke though than forceful spear carrier of the modern right… then again, maybe that’s just his style!
The attempt by governments, past and present, to rid our culture of the “scourge” of binge drinking has failed and will continue to fail. Politics is shaped by culture, not the other way around.
It was pretty good until Tony let it to descend into rancorous partisanship last night.
GP – LP, regardless of your political orientation, provides good reading. I’m not a lefty – you can see where I stand on the spectrum on the About section of my site, and I find myself disagreeing a lot with a great many things LP has to say – especially on economics. But it’s good quality reading.
Quiggan is another, Club Troppo is a great centrist site, but where is the conservative version of those?
I don’t think this as open and shut a case as you make it. What would happen if Governments removed ALL taxes from alcohol? Why do Government’s tax alcohol (and say, tobacco products) in the first place?
I would expect an argument backed up with some evidence before being persuaded of this.
That’s what happens when you invite Costello on a show. He’s starts using dodgy stats, you know, like pretending inflation wasn’t at 16 year highs last December.
Radical centrism is the new acceptable conservatism.
Nah – it’s a feedback loop.
Run for the hills! Women and children first!
I used to love Professor Bunyip, but I gather he’s at The Oz now. Probably not the kind of thing you had in mind anyway.
It’s Clubb Troppo’s motto:
It’s the ideological catch phrase that Dick Morris, Tony Blair, Bill Clinton and Mark Latham would often mention.
Oh, and Kevin Rudd on the night of the 2004 election.
Good for a laugh, not much else.
I nearly spilled my morning coffee when I read his dour lament that unions could not strike on social and environmental issues.
I never read Bunyip much to my misfortune by all accounts – was he really Imre Salusinszky?
I think he’s a good conservative commentator.
He has given O’Farrell a few sprays over the last couple of months.
That’s what I was hinting at, but who knows. You can prowl around the archives here.
Ooh – there’s archives!
Ta Billbowe
No 835
O’Barrell should watch his back. Baird covets the top job.
By the way, “Bosniak” (not Bosniac, Glen) is a real term that that has been used extensively by foreign policy experts, such as those on the Senate Foreign Relations Commitee.
Daily Gallup poll has Obama up one to 49 and McCain down one to 42.
William @ 777 & Dario @ 778,
I wouldn’t buy those polls for Minnesota at all ….. RCP is giving Minnesota to Obama on the no tossup states map …. those polls are probably outliers ……. RCP doesn’t move a state over to Obama in their no tossup map unless they can trust it to be there ….. Viriginia and North Carolina are there now as well, Indiana and Missouri are not {yet
}
GP @ 782,
I’ve always been mystified as to why/where his Mormon religion came from. He didn’t have it growing up. His father was the Michigan governor when I was growing up. Quite a popular governor too at the time, roughly in the same time era as Nixon and Ford. And as I understand it, his father and mother aren’t Mormons nor are any other family members. Must have been an adult conversion. He doesn’t live in Michigan any more either even though he has lots of roots there. Mormons are a very tiny part of the population in Michigan and yes, the conservatives in Michigan would run like the plague away from Mormons, totally different beast religiously and socially. At at though, I had better leave this comment here as I got into Williams sin bin prior to the Federal Election by detailed discussions about my further feelings in this regard
……
GP @ 806,
LORD help us if that bridge were ever crossed
……..
Bailout bill PASSED the HOR in Washingon on Friday their time.
263 to 171, 26 more Republicans voting yes than previously. Do not know the breakdown of Democrats compared to before. All HOR members save one voted.
(One has died recently.)
McCain and Palin aren’t communicating
….
No 345
Can’t be much worse than Obama proclaiming that the US had 57 states or Biden claiming that FDR addressed the nation after the Wall Street crash in 1929 – before he was president!
No 842
I’m puzzled as well. Generally, religion of the candidate wouldn’t have bothered me but I’m agnostic and on the verge of atheism anyway.
If Palin was a man she would have dumped almost immediately for total incompetence, in fact she would never have been selected. I feel sorry for Biden, he had to front to this debate with the political equivalent of the ‘village idiot’ and take her and it seriously. Nothing worse than a pretender that doesn’t realise they are a pretender. (ask Costello).
The influence of Prosperity Theology on foreclosures is an interesting concept. Wonder if a similar thing is happening with Hillsong church in Sydney.
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1847053,00.html
The Palin pick was always more about stemming the hamorrhaging from the Repug base rather than picking up the indies and undecideds. It was a defensive strategy rather than an offensive one
I think the Palin pick effectively killed McCain’s chances in New Hampshire.
Whilst it likes mavericks, it’s very pro-choice and pro-environment. It’s also (relatively) socially liberal compared to the rest of the country.
McCain was doing well there because he was McCain – a maverick, seemingly moderate Republican – the sort of people who used to run NH for decades. Palin is a conservative Republican, who would be highly unattractive for people in NH…
Fox News frothing at the mouth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz-d6WPTXa8&NR=1
Words from one of the debate analyzers for the VP debate
[
Sarah Palin and those like her do not aspire to transcend anything more than lowered expectations. Her foresight and ambition only reach as high as she tells you to look. The terms "Joe Six Pack" and "Hockey Moms of America" are code for the type of person she assumes won't aspire to anything more than mediocrity. The talent of Sarah Palin is in her ability to charm some with her folksy demeanor while concealing her stunning vacuousness. The obscenity of John McCain is in his selfish willingness to reignite a culture war by attempting to provide someone like Sarah Palin entree to an office that she should only see from the other side of the velvet rope on the White House tour.
Last night's debate was a David and Goliath match-up. Not because Joe Biden is a towering and formidable foe to a less-prepared civilian. Look again and tell me if you can tell the hero from the monster. Need some help? Goliath is the one who is condescending, arrogant, sarcastic, combative, insulting, childish, patronizing, untruthful and divisive. The monster doesn't lead, it misleads. It doesn't inspire, it frightens. It doesn't protect, it provokes. The monster is what has dominated us for eight long years. Sarah Palin is just the brand new model.
The monster marches and devours and never sleeps and it can only be defeated by its opposite: Hope, Courage, Knowledge, Kindness, and Grace. Those are the traits we saw in Joe Biden last night. They're the traits we see in Barack Obama. But most importantly, those are the traits they see in us.
]
JulieM,
I’ll see your fawning sycophant and raise you a balanced and perceptive Janet Albrectson.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/charmed_by_charisma_of_one_of_their_own/
It is funny that when researchers showed people a card with the person they didn’t prefer, they still madly defend their choice.
http://www.scientificblogging.com/rationally_speaking/the_physiology_and_psychology_of_voting
Nevada: Rasmussen says Obama 51, McCain 47, giving Obama the lead for the first time since July.
New Hampshire: Rasmussen says Obama 53, McCain 43, consistent with emerging picture there.
Washington: Rasmussen says Obama 53, McCain 43.
North Carolina: Elon University poll has Obama 44, McCain 42. Sample only 477, but similar result to yesterday’s Rasmussen.
Blessed be the Pollster.com RSS feed.
GG (854)
I have always found Janet Albrectson an interesting and capable writer – maybe even perceptive – but balanced? I don’t think so. She’s as far right wing as they come. Why do you think Howard put her on the board of the ABC?
I’m doing a bit of ironying.