Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.
1,274 Comments
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The last time a Republican Presidental candidate won the Largest electoral college vote state of California was in 1988.
With the polls showing McCain in troble in Pennslyvannia and possibly Ohio Sunshine Republicans can come to the GOP again and save this tight electoral situation. California was once a strong Republican State votes for Nixon 1960, 1968 and 1972: Ford 1976; Reagan 1980 and 1984 and finally Bush Snr 1988.
On a state level California has a Republican Governor in Arnold Schwarzenegger and overall since it joined the Union in 1850 there have been 22 Republican Governors compared with 15 Democratic Governors.
Juliem (999)
Certainly doesn’t sound very professional. Surprising really. I think Obama’s got 264 EVs more or less in the bank (might be a poor choice of words given current events) and the 13 from Virginia would take him over the magical 270. You’d think they’d be giving their all for those kinds of states.
I can imagine how a hatchet job like that Rolling Stone article would have been received if it had been done to John Kerry. Actually, I don’t have to.
Didn’t he end up cooperating with the enemy too?
Juliem @ 1000
John McCain is a war hero a gallant fighter pilot who loves his country and puts country first your “The Confession” piece is a sad indictment on peoples perception of men who serve in uniform.
2004 Democratic Presidental candidate John Kerry also faced this type of barrage against his military service in Vietnam and probably as a result led to his substantial defeat against Republican George W Bush.
In 2008 lets try and be fair and balanced in regard McCain service in the Military and not nit picking comments from former disgruntled soldiers.
The USA faces many competitor nations who are a danger to the Worlds stable equilibruim and we need a commander in chief with a killers instinct what better candidate than a dashing fighter pilot.
What goes around, comes around
Dario @ 1006
“What goes around, comes around”
Are you subversive to the USA’s role or hegemony in world affairs?
(1005)
{we need a commander in chief with a killers instinct what better candidate than a dashing fighter pilot}.
He might have been dashing 40 years ago. But at 72, those days are well and truly behind him.
Oh no!!! How dare anyone be subversive towards the mighty USA??!! Gosh darnnit. Doncha know America is always right??!! You betcha!!
Actually I think Dario was being more subversive towards the Republican party’s desire to trawl through the gutter in 2004, but now want to say – John McCain’s record? You can’t go there – let’s rise above such things.
(1007) Paul
Whether we like it or not, the USAs “hegemony” is slowly (some would say quickly after recent financial events) drawing to a close.
If you get the chance, have a read of John Gray in the Melbourne age today. A real eye opener.
How you came up with that question from what I wrote I have no idea
On the Contray Darn 1005
John McCain best days are ahead of him I remember as a young child looking up to a 72 year old Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen led the Nationals into Government in the own right in Queensland he was at his Zenith of power and strength having completed gutted and destroyed the Queensland Liberals who as we all know now no longer exist.
1011
It seemed like a non sequitur to me too Dario.
Dario @ 1011
I sincerely apologise and i’m relieved i wouldn’t believe an Australian could be anywhere near subversive to our great and powerful friend.
I agree with William such info in the rolling stone article should not be used against
Mr McCain in the remainder of the election campaign… and will not be!!
How one judges such a situation 30 years after the event I do not know.
1012
If i were you Paul, I wouldn’t be putting Bjelke-Peterson forward as a pinup boy. You’ll be torn to shreds.
I must admit, I’m beginning to wonder now if you’re just pulling our legs.
Mr Nash’s comments seem very much over the top… could he be a secret
Obama supporter?
Now that you’ve got your feigned indignance out of the way, my comment was in regard to Kerry being swiftboated. What goes around, comes around.
Oh whew. Now at least we all know you’re just having a laugh. Well played Paul Nash – you had us all fooled.
The only Obama supporters on this blog are either Labor liberal or perhaps Green supporters in Aussie land. My comment aren’t over the top Mick they are just plain old fashioned Common sense. Obama may have according to recent US polls a six point lead but i suggest he has peaked too soon. The Ford/Dole ticket came from nowhere in 1976 to almost snatch Carters victory from him. And the Gore/Lieberman Democratic ticket in 2000 almost caused an upset victory when they came from behind four weeks out. Polls are Polls the real verdict will come on November 4 and I suspect the Liberal elite will all be in tears. Americas future is to important to be left to chance.
I think Paul is playing us like a finely tuned harp. Grains of salt my friends, grains of salt.
What’s wrong with these two cases if you’re trying to suggest, by referring to them, that McCain can still win?
Beat me to it GB.
Given a choice between winning and “almost” wining, I know which side I’ll take…
Another useful link for those following the U.S. election numbers:
The New York Times Electoral Map has the latest State polling for the Presidential candidates.
The map says red but the numbers say blue. Now the dirt will fly everywhere, William Ayers style.
lol, now that just takes the cake
The only peak that’s happened in this campaign is the Republican’s polling straight after its convention. If only they coud have announced Palin as VP candidate a week out
How the NYT has NH as a toss up after a +10 and a +12 poll for Obama I just cannot fathom
(1020)
{My comment aren’t over the top Mick they are just plain old fashioned Common sense}.
They are cetainly old fashioned. Bjelke-Petersen was dumped by his own party in 1987.
Darn @ 1020.
1987 where tumultuous events for the Nationals the Australian establishments clever distruction of the JOH for PM campaign and the setting up of the biggest witchhunt in Australias political history the Fitzgerald Inquiry. Sir Joh was deposed because of these two devasting events and not because they were old fashioned. Anyway back to American politics and 1987 was one of the years that great Republican Ronald Reagan led the USA during one of its golden periods.
The two tickets i mentioned did lose both elections but they came back to be competitive and thats what John McCain and the Republicans need to do and hopefully then manage to go over the top.
Sir Joh just about cost the Liberals the 1987 election Paul, he was an idiot for doing that. He shot the conservatives in the foot!
Quite a telling point made here by David Brooks on The Newshour with Jim Lehrer, about how the Republicans are narrowing their base and what dangers this poses for the long term. Oh what I wouldn’t give to have at least one conservative commentator in this country the equal of Brooks, instead of the right wing cheer squad we have to endure.
“DAVID BROOKS: Nonetheless, I do think there are fundamentals. It’s very hard to win the party — to win the presidency three terms in a row, for any party, no matter what the terms. The economy is what it is. These are pretty strong.
And then one thing — Mark mentioned small-town values when talking about Michigan. You know, I think Sarah Palin did very fine last night by her own standards, but this has become — the Republican Party has become a small-town party, running against — as Sarah Palin did last night — against big cities, against the East Coast, to some extent, against newspaper readers.
I understand why they’re doing it, running against Washington. This is the way Republicans do populism. But in the long run, it’s poisonous and self-destructive. You cannot be a majority party in this country if the coasts don’t like you and people who read newspapers don’t like you.
And they have narrowed themselves. And I thought McCain was going to be a chance to reach out beyond the traditional red, rural America. And he’s not taking that up. And with Sarah Palin, short-term gain last night, but long-term turning people off.”
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec08/sbbailout_10-03.html
1030
You’re right Glen. John Howard was very unamused.
Well said Glen. I’d suggest JWH still has Joh near the top of his sh*t list.
All Liberals would, he ruined the QLD Liberal Party in State politics and cost us either a victory or at least substantial gains in the 87 election, he’s got a lot to answer for!
Conservative politics has not been the same since Johs Nats ruled the roost through corrupt redrawing of the boundaries giving the Nats suburban seats what a joke!
We’ve only been in Govt in QLD through a by-election result once since Joh that’s a long time between drinks!
Glen, the impact of Joh’s push has been greatly overstated. True he did not help the conservative cause in 1987, but they were never going to win that election.
The ALP polling was strong for a long time, Hawke outrated Howard as preferred PM about 60 to 25, and Howard’s approval/disapproval was about 35/60.
PPM ratings dont count for much though, Howard was still popular before he got the boot.
Yeah, but that was OK. Because in politics it is fine for right wing politicians to attack the military record of left wing politicians, but not OK for the opposite to occur.
I hope you’re not referring to George W Bush.
Maybe, but not because the U.S. is in decline, it is because other big countries like China and India are finally reforming so that they are starting to catch up to the U.S.
What about the poll that showed that 60% of Australians want Obama to win? That implies a decent chunk of the smal L Liberal Party supporters here want Obama to win, and perhaps a few National Party types as well. Saying that Obama’s support simply comes from the Left is wrong.
But didn’t.
They were in front before the first debate.
Who said it wasn’t? We have elections so it isn’t left to chance.
True. This was the guy who said Obama’s middle name was a sign of the end times. LOL!
Yeah that golden age that saw the U.S. deficit go from $75 billion to $140 billion a year over the period of his presidency. Those were the days…
And that doesn’t even consider the fact he was a criminal who couldn’t care less about Government transparency or due process.
Bruce you are the BOSS ……..
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=0RQC8482gxI
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=ytItUIoq2Wc&feature=related
Paul @ 1005,
Nice try
……. You aren’t baiting me in. I lived in the USA for 43 years. I was married (before current spouse, an Aussie citizen) to someone who has made the military and/or the National Guard his career his whole life.
Go have a lie down somewhere
Obama camp going to go in hard on McCain’s links to the S&L colapse in the 80s
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/mccains-keating-5-scandal_n_132103.html
13 minute documentary?? They’ve obviously been planning this for a while. (ie this ain’t your John Kerry Democratic Party)
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qvaPnmcdb3Q&feature=related
I can’t wait for Election Day, can we fast forward please?
………
The editorials are starting to trickle in
…
Troll Detection 101:
(1) Insubstantial flattering references to Ronald Regan.
(2) Insubstantial flattering references to Joe Bjelke-Petersen.
(3) Wildly discursive and insubstantial unflattering references to Obama supporters.
I know this thread is about the U.S Election but if I may I wish to agree with Glen in regards to the effects of the Sir Joh for Canberra on the 1987, I know many people in Victoria were turned off by the sight of Sir Joh.
He was nearing the end of his time and too be frank the Liberal campaign was a shambles in part due to Sir Joh but also the hold found in Howard’s costing.
Looking at this election, I agree with David Broader’s view and we have seen it here in Australia with the Liberal Party who from time to time think baging certain big city ideas and claiming some small town values is the way to increase the base when in fact it does exceltaly the opposited.
I’m sure Sarah Palin’s small town values are sincere but for those traditional Republican voters whom reside in big cities and want policies that will enhance Americas place in the world rather than a narrow somewhat demented world view then we will see the Democrates win those voters or they just wont turn up on polling day.
Its a bit like when John Howard use to critise the artist community as elisted when in fact many of them lived in places like Sydneys northern beaches.
Ok, just a reminder about our informal prediction contest. No rewards other than the pride of having beaten your fellow PB’rs. I’m keeping tally. Anyone can get onboard or change their votes up until 10pm local time Tuesday November 4. If you want in, I need:
1. Your candidate who will win {we will take any McCain endorsements out there if you want to put your guess where your mouth is}
2. Their total EV’s at the end of the count {i.e IF you think McCain will win, what will be his EV total?}
tiebreakers:
3. The state that will put your winner over the top (270) in the election returns based upon the CNN television call {the station that I will be watching on Wednesday morning}
4. Will Obama take Missouri?
#3 will be a tiebreaker if needed. #4 will only be used should #3 not be sufficient.
So far, besides myself, I’ve ShowsOn, Dario, Gusface, Sondeo, Phil of Sydney and Al on board.
ShowsOn, I need your answers to 3 & 4 please, right now they’re blank in my spreadsheet. Gusface and Al, I need your answers to 3 please, thanks
Cheers
ok juliem
1. Obama
2. 348
3. Colorado
4. It’ll be a long cold day in hell before I recognize Misourah. But I’ll say McCain takes it.
Just something that I always had a little difficulty in following. An individual is limited to two terms as President of the United States, yet FDR was elected four times.
It seems George Washington set a precedent of two terms, which was adhered to until FDR’s four wins. So the 22nd amendment to the Constitution was required to prevent it happening again.
“The Constitution of the United States specifies a four-year presidential term. It originally said nothing about how many terms a president could serve. But the precedent established by George Washington limited his successors to two terms. Succession by a vice president after a president’s death provided the opportunity to serve more than eight years without strictly violating the two-term rule. No president tried to serve more than eight years in office until Republican Theodore Roosevelt. After filling out three-and-a-half years of the term of President William McKinley following McKinley’s assassination in 1901 and then serving four years in his own right (1905-1909), Roosevelt ran unsuccessfully in 1912 for another four years.
The need for steady leadership during World War II (1939-1945) made it possible for Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt to break the tradition by winning four successive elections between 1932 and 1944. In a reaction against Franklin Roosevelt’s extended presidency, in 1951 Congress and state legislatures approved the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, which limits a president to two elected terms. The amendment also prohibits a person from running for election a second time if he or she has already served more than two years of a term to which someone else had been elected.”
Juliem
My guess
1. Obama
2. 336
3. Florida
4. No
Aristotle,
The Republicans led the drive behind that constitutional ammendment as a direct result of FDR’s 4 terms. “No one ever”, they said, will do that to the Republicans again LOL ………
Enjaybee & Grog,
Got it, thanks
……
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