Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.




1,274 Comments
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One of a number of comments following an article that says Indiana is in play (read this from 538.com; nice site, hadn’t see it before today) …. Given these comments from on the ground in IN, McCain falls deeper into the quicksand every day
….
Here’s an example of how poorly the McCain campaign is being run. McCain doesn’t even explain his tactics to his V.P. candidate:
http://www.slate.com/id/2201669/
—Mike Allen, Politico, Oct. 6, 2008
—Sarah Palin to Bill Kristol in the New York Times, Oct. 6, 2008
ShowsOn et. al.,
This is why he is releasing the Keating5 video today, Monday, in US time
…… To get McCain in a messed up state prior to the next debate
Voter suppression battles (a la attempts in Ohio) brewing in Indiana {Lake County is the NW part of the state near Chicago}
http://progressillinois.com/2008/10/04/lake-county-voter-supression
Possum,
Right up your alley, article with lots of votes and grapsh and so on, discussing the power of the youth vote (18-24)
http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=85&ArticleName=Youth+Vote%3a+The+Power+of+Registration
Fellow bludgers, I note that a number of you have made requests for historical data on previous US elections – this site here will have all you need:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Only one thing to keep in mind, for some reason it portrays Republican states won as blue and Democrat states won as red! Apart from that it’s a very good ready reckoner.
McCain hasn’t got a hope in h*** of winning Florida now IF the vote is close, Palin is his albatross …..
(article about the Florida Jewish vote)
Oh PLEASE……………………………… if this is the best that they can come up with, I’ll break out the champagne now LOL …..
Juliem
I said a week or two ago that they were desperate. Its not McCain; its all the hangers on and party machien people now working in his campaign. As I suggested a while ago, I suspect some of them face the real risk of jail if government changes and the Bush adminsitration is fully investigated. Look at what has happened already over teh US Attorney sackings since a democrat controlled congress has been able to investigate. Imagine what we might find if an Obama appointed attorney general inevstigated all the torture cases, including those which involved people who later turned out to be completely innocent?
These guys will do anything to cling to office. I hope Obama does not respond in kind; it will only underline the difference between them.
Wow that Virginia poll is amazing. McCain is looking more than gone, he is dead and buried on those numbers…
From the NBC/WSJ poll regarding the VP debate:
Florida blue according to pollster.com
How sweet it is
1211
Agree Dario. That’s a massive vote for Obama in Virginia.
1190
I agree that internet polls are a bit suss but if it’s the Zogby poll you are referring to, even that is trending towards Obama by my reading.
Obama’s coattails could provide a fillibuster proof majority
…..
Tomorrow’s debate is in a town hall style format where voters will ask the candidates questions. Supposedly, this format is McCain’s favorite type, as opposed to standing behind a podium or something else. Read what happened at town hall style meeting in Colorado over the US summer
….
juliem
Election projection is the Repug version of electoral-vote. It’s useful when people whine about 538 or electoral-vote being biased coz it’s run by a rampant Repug. It’s at;
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml
And I know we’ve said this before but what the hell has McCain done to NH? They’re killing him there. And all the Floridian Jews worrying about Palin being an anti-Semite is quite funny. I wonder where they got that idea.
Economy back on the front page of Drudge. What do the world’s governments do now? Personally, I have NFI but some of you must have a few ideas. Let’s hope Obama and McCain get asked about it during the next debate.
Wall Street tumbles amid global sell-off
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93L6K8O0&show_article=1
But I thought Palin WON the debate! That guy she was against talked as if he knew the definitions of the words he was using, that was SO off putting!
This is kind of funny, because according to Republican staffers they are already considering North Carolina as a loss (Bob Dole’s wife).
Missouri has gone blue now. That only leaves Indiana to go. Obama continues to climb nationally to 6.2%. Intrade is 69-31. Obama is now 4 to 1 on with the bookies. Would Hillary have won by that much? We’ll never know but I doubt it.
Come on Dio… she would have won the EV by 1000000-0, and then turned water into wine!!!
A nice article about McCain’s embarassingly incompetent campaign.
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/embarracuda.html
I think that is the highest he has ever been. I don’t think he has ever broken 70.
Of course Hilary would’ve won by 500 electoral votes. That’s just ‘obvious’
Oh fair, fair, that’s not all she did; she also smiled and winked a lot.
It is now near on impossible for the GOP to get up, but let’s not count the chickens yet… 4 weeks is a long time in US politics.
Totally. But what happened yesterday on Wall Street won’t help.
Just went the McCain campaign wanted to shift over to throwing mud, the stock market takes another huge dive, so they’ll be forced to talk about things that people actually care about.
Wolfson, who has written a lot of good articles despite running a crap campaign, says that the Rezko/Ayers/Wright smears won’t help McCain much. While the economy stays No 1, and Obama has a double digit lead in it, McCain is stuffed.
And he calls the election for Obama.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_flack/archive/2008/10/05/it-s-over.aspx
Yep. Blunted the attacks perfectly.
Diogenes 1217
The really sad part is that Secretary Paulson seems to have no idea. Funny, him being a money market financier-genius and all.
I’m not expert but I would have thought the two key things are to restore confidence and protect any public stake. So that could mean guaranteeing public deposits in savings banks and taking public equity in the troubled institutions rather than giving cash injections. I read blogs by John Quiggan and Krugman in the US, who I consider good economists.
They raised the deposit insurance limit from $100k to $250k last week I think?
1229
{So that could mean guaranteeing public deposits in savings banks and taking public equity in the troubled institutions rather than giving cash injections}. .
Haven’t you heard Socrates? The yanks like to call that socialism. It’s the source of all financial evil in the world. They’d rather go down with the sinking ship than do that.
As for a solution to the financial crisis, there were some good articles on the solution Sweden used to a similar problem in the early 90s. It involves direct government intervention, something right wing reps find so ahard ot admit works. Better that they let the whole country go to hell than admit their ideology was wrong! See Krugman on both the current US treasuries failures, and the Swedish model:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/opinion/03krugman.html
Speaking of Paul Krugman, he has highlighted another delightful aspect of Republican policy – their attempt to get rid of public health funding. See
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/opinion/06krugman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Darn
Snap! That is exactly the problem: ideology ahead of painfull facts.
I see our share market has dropped 3.1% in the first 15 minutes of trading. Even Rudd is sounding worried and he’s been pretty cool with it so far.
More good news for Obama. Rezko’s sentencing has been postponed from its intended date (which would have been just before polling day).
http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/rezko/1205307,rezko100608.article
Georgia has now been downgraded to Leaning McCain on RCP.
Meanwhile, PA has become Solid Obama, whilst NH and MN have become Leaning Obama.
The pressure is now on McCain to deliver a “game-changing” performance at the debate tomorrow…
The repubs oficial dirt file on Obama and Ayers.
http://www.gop.com/News/NewsRead.aspx?Guid=768aa784-72f3-4b43-acb6-c5fe81d901cd
It’s pathetic… eg:
It’s going nowhere. McCain has enough skeletons in his closet (Keating 5, Liddy, Ifshin) and the economy is going to keep on giving until polling day. He can plan his retirement now.
Diogenes @ 1220,
Hope the h*** that Missouri holds for Obama
….. that will be SO sweet if it does, one of my sisters is a Rep. and lives in Missouri LOL ………
1223,
Possum, isn’t 70% or so on Intratrade a gimme?
…….
From a mailing list I am on; various speeches and so on in the next month before the election, also a link for an election day gathering in Sydney somewheres ….
Juliem went:
Has been historically
Intrade has now hit 71% for Obama. McCain’s going to throw everything at Obama during the debate but he can’t actually ask him a question or speak to him at all, according to the rules. Obama just needs to smile, look presidential and play a straight bat.
Possum @ 1242,
COOL …… a 4 week long happy hour
…….
From the comments section of an article on the Huffington blog where McCain was speaking at a rally in NM or AZ and people were calling out racist chants including “kill him” from the audience. McCain let it go through to the keeper, thereby tacitly achknowledging it.
From your fingers lady to God’s ears ………
further to 1245 [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/mccain-does-nothing-as-cr_n_132366.html ],
another comment
Does anyone have or can someone find a URL to the Naomi Wolff story referred to here? I will look myself but if anyone else already has it, please post the same … thanks
again, further to 1245,
Apparently, Biden’s MIL has passed …….. May we keep Biden in our prayers ……
Can somebody please tell me what “he took full responsibility for the debacle” really means? Did he commit hara-kiri? cut a finger off? parade naked on Wall St carrying a sign “I am sorry”? Return the $500M?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/business/economy/07lehman.html?bl&ex=1223524800&en=6b2e328b1376df03&ei=5087
They should make him give it all back and prosecute him for theft.
McCain sounds nuts when he gets angry, take a look at the interview with the editorial board of a newspaper: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhb41Z-Znkg
At one stage he even argues against his own evidence! He says that he doesn’t think a bill Obama supported is good evidence to attack him with, even though that is what he just did in the previous minute.
I can’t see how getting this angry will help him.
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