Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.
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Doh! I mean the TOTAL vote was about 120 million last time.
Re 98,
Lets add a tie breaker (to make it fair to anyone who wants to get in and wasn’t in quickly) for those on the same correct guess.
1. Predict the state that puts him over the top based upon the CNN count/call on election night / election Wednesday day for us [ as CNN is the station I will watch for election returns ] [ other networks might put him over the top with a different state ]
2. Will Obama take Missouri?
If we need a tiebreaker, I’ll use #1. Won’t use #2 unless we need it for Q1.
- Colorado gets my vote
- He won’t take Missouri
Yes ShowsOn @ 100, we need to predict the popular votes for that contest. That is a crapshoot, needle in a haystack ….. I punted and said the same number as GB got in 2004
…..
For purposes of what I suggested here, I’m only interested in the EV total and the two tiebreaker questions …..
104 Dario,
I need an EV total for Obama as well ….. Cheers
Dario, sorry that should read 103, but you know what i meant … trying to parallel process too many things here at once, it is school holidays and I’ve got my kids at home
Forgot what I entered in that comp! I think it was 286 EVs
By ‘him’ who are you referring to? Or are we just presuming a particular candidate has it in the bag and working from there?
ltep, we are all presuming an Obama win, but if you want to go out on the limb and say a McCain win, please give
1. McCain’s winning EV total
2. What state will put the winner [in this instance, McCain] over the top?
3. Will Obama take Missouri?
juliem
obama 326
missouri yes …maybe (too early yet)
110 Gusface,
Please also give the state you believe will put Obama over the top. I’ll be watching the CNN returns on that Wednesday so will use their count to answer this question. (so if someone else’s count has a different state that puts him over the top, just so that we are all clear on that)
juliem@ 109:
I’ve used Intrade as my guide and so I’ll go Obama : 338 / McCain :200.
As for what state will get him over the line this may seem a silly question, but how are the votes counted.? Doesn’t it depend on how many people voted, the different time zones.? I wouldn’t have a clue about what state puts him over the line.
Obama 306
North Carolina
Missouri no (Dem pick ups: IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, NC). I’m guessing that the economic crisis will hit Nevada to make them swing behind Obama but will hold Florida for McCain.
Can someone explain to me why people would support Obama over McCain on economic issues?
Why on earth would any American want someone who’s never drafted a single bill in his life and been in the Senate for less than 1 term to run the American economy over McCain??
112,
The staff on CNN will call each state as soon as enough results come in that they can do that. I will post a link here for a map with time zones so that you can see which states are in which time zones. They can’t call a result until the polls have closed in that state, so for example, NY will most likely be called BEFORE the polls in Arizona are closed because NY is 2 hours ahead of Arizona. That might give you some idea. They call results though in real time so it is likely that the state that puts him over the top will be one in the Mountain time zone (Colorado for example) or Pacific time zone (California for example) UNLESS a state like Florida or Ohio (in the eastern time zone) is really close and they can’t call it for some hours after the polls have closed. SO could be anything
http://www.worldtimezone.com/time-usa12.php
Further to 116,
Arizona does NOT do DST, so when the USA changes time @ 2am the last Sunday morning in October, Arizona will revert back to Mountain time. It only goes with Pacific time when it is summer time ……. Ditto for extreme NW Indiana, they are on time with Chicago in the summer months and then when it gets cold, they go back with the rest of the state of Indiana ……
Glen, what are you doing on this thread?
……
ltep, because McCain is an outright liar. I’m trying to find the link to a video I saw earlier today where McCain is saying he is for less deregulation and on the very same day told a rally we need more govt regulation.
Sorry, but this guy has leaves Howard for dead in the lying dept.
Maybe because McCain has admitted that he doesn’t know much about economics.
Perhaps because McCain has admitted he knows nothing about economics, and a Republican President was in charge of this mess
Dario but what does Obama know about economics??
That if he writes another memoir he’ll get another 100million?
Yeah, that too
There are only two real choices in this election Glen. He doesn’t need to be a Professor of economics when the guy he is running against knows zilch.
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/26/political-pictures-abraham-lincoln-illinois-senator/
See you cannot answer the question because neither of them are economic gurus are they?
So when you trash McCain on economics you also must acknowledge that Obama is just as much if not more of an economic novice than McCain is.
What’s worse handing over the US to a 1 term Senator or someone who’s been in there for nearly 3 decades???
Obama is a novice on economics, it’s just that the media seem to want to blame the Republicans for everything even though there is a Democratic Congress in power in the Senate and HoR.
He isn’t motivated by a philosophy that says regulation is bad, UNTIL you need the government to step in and pay $700 billion to bail out the private sector. He understands that SOME regulation is necessary to make capitalism work properly.
During the debate last Saturday (our time) McCain essentially still was using Reagan talking points ‘Government is the problem’, well hello, Wall Street had just gone to the GOVERNMENT to try to fix its problems! So how can Government be the problem ALL of the time?
It just made McCain sound like a hypocrite – government IS the problem, but not when it has to hand over $700 billion to wall street. That just doesn’t make sense.
polyquats and look what happened the South seceeded after his election!
You don’t need to be an economic guru to be elected President – Look at Bush and Reagan for example.
Hang on a second, I thought McCain was the ANTI Washington / outside / Maverick candidate! I guess that was just spin…
Oh no! Not again THE MEDIA are controlling our minds again! I think it is so funny that right wingers revert to this MARXIST media theory to try to back up their arguments!
The problem Glen is that THE AMERICAN PUBLIC seem to be blaming the economic crisis primarily on George Bush, Wall Street (which is seen as a Republican institution), and REPUBLICANS in congress. Whether it makes sense or not, McCain is getting swept away in this anti-Republican sentiment.
HAHHAHAHAH! So are you proposing that if Obama wins the U.S. will have another civil war?
Utter BS Glen. The Republicans have had control of Congress for 12 of the last 14 years, and the Whitehouse for the last 8. That’s where the damage was done… and the American voters see it that way, whether you like it or not.
Adam has sent Glen in to take charge for awhile …… just let Glen go through to the keeper
Of course not that would be stupid i merely posit that electing inexperienced people into a demanding job can cause more harm than good.
Bull Butter Dario the Democrats have controlled it for 2 years and did nothing to warn the american people about this crisis or do anything to stop it, and Pelosi couldnt even get 10 of the 93 democrats who voted against it to switch HA!
Both sides are to blame here!
I don’t think and I hope anybody expects the President to make economic decisions based on their own abilities – otherwise McCain has already disqualified himself with the admission he doesn’t do economics. And if you seen him in an interview being questioned on economic issues in the past you would concur with his self assessment.
During this campaign McCain has been highly erratic when talking on economic issues but I suspect that is not because of gross stupidity but because he was looking for political wedges.
The article posted by Gusface that talked about this issue highlights the problem quite well – look at the team of economic advisers each side has chosen then it will become patently obvious that McCain’s side of the street is a dangerous one.
Obama’s performance so far must be the one that instills the greater confidence – no panic, no eratic behaviour, cooly addressing the fundamental issues and deferring to the experts to provide possible solutions before jumping emotionally on one idea.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/opinion/29krugman.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin
Why don’t you just cut and paste Ron’s posts!
The point is not who is ACTUALLY to blame, it is who the American public THINKS is to blame, and if you believe the polls, that is Bush, Wall Street, and Republicans roughly in that order.
That is a net negative for McCain, because 2 weeks ago he said the economy was fundamentally strong, and a month before that his economics adviser was calling Americans whiners, and saying that the economy was not headed for a recession.
In the debate he shot himself in the foot by repeating the Republican mantra that Government IS the problem, even though as the debate was on THE GOVERNMENT was trying to figure out a way to fix it.
Get real, the problem is 2/3 of Republicans voted against it, compared to 2/5 of Democrats! Which is why they are being blamed for both causing and refusing the fix the mess.
Glen see McCain the liar in action…! HAHAHAHA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOvJ6GUjUJ0
Are you a Sarah Palin fan?
Glen, clearly you know zero about the US. Bush is President and has veto over anything the Dems in Congress can pass.
This was Bush’s bill and the Republicans couldn’t even get 10 of the 133 Republicans who opposed it to switch HA!
Go back to the other thread Glen, you are out of your depth here.
If Obama wins, and employs the same economic advisers Clinton had then the problem will be fixed. Clinton went from a huge deficit to a surplus by raising taxes on the wealthy, and cutting the defence budget by a few percent. Whoever wins will have to do the same, a Democratic President with a Democratic congress has a better chance of doing that sooner.
Why exactly are people trying to shut out dissenting voices?
OMG another shocker
…… [ Asked what newspapers and magazines she reads, Palin - a journalism major in college - could not name one publication.
"I've read most of them, again with a great appreciation for the press, for the media," she said at first. Couric responded, "What, specifically?"
"Um, all of them, any of them that have been in front of me all these years."
"Can you name a few?"
"I have a vast variety of source where we get our news," Palin said. "Alaska isn't a foreign country, where it's kind of suggested, 'wow, how could you keep in touch with what the rest of Washington, D.C., may be thinking when you live up there in Alaska?' Believe me, Alaska is like a microcosm of America."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html ]
Shut up ltep
Oh cmon just because he’s a good speaker doesnt mean he’ll do a good job on economics what rubbish!
Remember folks let it go through to the keeper, you don’t have to swing at Glen’s airballs ………
ShowsOn, I’ve told you once before not to do this. The message it imparts is: “I am laughing very loudly right into your face”. If you did this in real life, you’d get beaten up.
ltep, with the exception of maybe one or two posters who get to vote in the US election, the debates here are basically meaningless to the outcome. But it doesn’t mean that people can’t have an opinion, and disagree with other posters.
When the Americans go around saying that they are electing the “leader of the free world” as their president, ( no offence meant juliem ) and I don’t get a vote, I’m certainly going to exercise my free speech and debate who I want to see as President.
And if people want to elect idiots like McCain and Palin, then as citizens of the free world we have the right to argue against it.
Well at the very least the U.S. would have a President who is a good speaker, which is more than they’ve got now.
Glen, explain to me how your Marxist theory of the media results in brainwashing and conformity.
William, the bold laughing was me. I apologise wholeheartedly. Won’t happen again.
Sondeo, ShowsOn did it too in 130 – and in his case he was directing it at another commenter, whereas you could argue you’re directing it at McCain, which is a different matter.
Sondeo,
I don’t take offense. I’ve considered myself emotionally and in every way an Aussie since I married my husband in 1996. I probably whinge about the Americans as much as any of you do since I don’t look at myself from that set of rose coloured glasses any more. While I am an American by birth so therefore get the right to vote in the election, that is my only real connection at any level to the US. I’ve still got relatives there but if we want to see each other, then they come here. No worries
. Because I grew up there though, that gives me a bit more knowledge than those of you who are Aussie by birth. Did you have an answer for 1. which state will give Obama the votes he needs to win on Election night and 2. will he win Missouri?
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