Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.
1,274 Comments
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Yes. Glen, is correct that they have to rely on Lieberman to vote on things (as they do on all the Dem senators… it isn’t like Australia where votes are all along party lines) but Lieberman and Sanders caucus with the Dems giving them ‘control’
What are the odds on a hung EV… 50/50? One site I read claimed that that was a real possibility. To what extent does the national poll reflect then crucial key swing states?
This seems to be the most optimistic senate estimation – 58:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Sep30-s.html
Pollster.com says 54, fivethirtyeight.com says, 56.
Remember, it’s the Vice President of the U.S. who is the President of the Senate. He is the person that goes through and counts all the electoral college votes.
I like the idea of seeing Dick Cheney going through the lengthy procedure of certifying an Obama presidential win.
So basically they needed those two independents so that all the Committee chairs are Democrats? The crazy thing is Sanders is so left wing, he would be like Bob Brown, yet he was elected by a state that usually only elects Republican senators!
I love the fact their politicians don’t vote the party line! I wish we had that here.
I think all eyes should be on Ohio, if Obama wins it then McCain is a goner.
No Republican has won without it, if I were Obama id be campaigning there alot.
ShowsOn @ 197: a federal electoral authority wouldn’t solve the problem of polls on the west coast closing later than the east. Australian election outcomes are often known before the polls close in WA, at least when daylight saving made the time difference three hours rather than two.
I’d say the chance of that is pretty slim now. But on the previous thread we discussed the fact that if the E.C. vote is tied, Obama would still probably be elected thanks to a majority of state delegations in the House.
Obviously the polls are much closer in the swing states, but Obama now has leads in all the Kerry states, plus Indiana, New Mexico, and Colorado. He is also tied in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Indiana, which are all crucial for a McCain win. On top of those, he is very close in Missouri and North Carolina. Not even Clinton won North Carolina, so if Obama is close there, then he must be doing very well.
Correct
Looking at the senate map (thanks for that) it shows that there is3-4 states that are line ball. How often does the Senate distribution vary from the Presidential college count? Is the US Senate a good guide for the outcome of a presidential vote when looking at the swing sate?
The site I read gave asenario that if the vote was tied and remained tied Nacy would become caretaker President. Is that true?
SwingLowe, I’ve not examined the Senate seats but it looks as if you have
….. what is Dole up against in NC? I thought I read about a week or two ago that her seat was also in danger of falling to the Democrats ……
Ohio still reminds me of Kent State.
I meant relative to the local time. There is a huge variation depending on which state you are voting in. Some states the polls close at 6 PM local time (Indiana, Hawaii, Kentucky) while others close as late as 9 PM (New York, Rhode Island, North Dakota) for their local time, and then there are all sorts of times between those extremes.
I just thought that uniformity would limit confusion, even though the various time zones mean people are actually voting at different times. I guess in New York it NEEDS to close late because millions of people live there.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=c
I don’t think so because U.S. politicians basically campaign first as themselves, and second as their party. Some people have speculated that a popular Democrat who is running for the Senate for the first time is one reason why Obama is leading in Colorado. So there are certain “coat tail” effects that may work either way.
But just because the Democrats are going to win some Senate seats in the deep south won’t mean Obama will win there.
I don’t think so. The Senate would vote on who becomes V.P., Biden would win and become acting President. Then the House keeps voting until inauguration day until they come up with a winner. If they can’t Biden becomes President.
(I am assuming the Democrats keep their majority)
Ruawake,
For Michigan folks, all Ohio is good for is a place that you have to drive through to get to Florida
……..
On the issue of closing time for polling booths, remember that election day is a normal working day. That would produce many issues which we don’t experience in Australia where they are all on Saturdays. Even then, there is always a rush before 6 pm close.
Juliem,
Dole’s up against it in North Carolina. While she had strong polling figures earlier this year, the latest non-party aligned polls all show Democrat Kay Hagan in the lead. The Dems are currently pounding her on spending hardly any time in North Carolina the past few years.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nc/08-nc-sen-ge-dvh.php
Is Hillary up for election?
No she was re-elected easily in 2006.
thats right she was elected in 2000
Wow one bit of positive Iraq news actually being reported for once!
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24431454-5005961,00.html
Deaths fall in Iraq
“THE number of civilians killed in Iraq last month more than halved to 359 compared to a year ago, Iraqi Government figures showed, and the number of US troops killed in action also fell dramatically.
US combat deaths fell to eight in September, down from 12 last month and vastly reduced from 43 in September last year, statistics from independent website http://www.icasualites.org showed.
Violence in Iraq has fallen to around four-year lows in recent months, but militants have still been capable of large-scale attacks.”
Good news for McCain!
To be frank I think the economy is pretty much going to be the only issue for this election
“Only” 359 deaths in a month, good news? What a perverse world we live in.
What effect if any will radar Nader have as a third candidate. I recall the Ross p. challenge. At least Ross was included in the debate.
What Is the deal if Obama suffers a pre poll Kennedy strike from Grassy Knoll as some extremists has suggested? Is the election postponed or does the College decide?
It seems tiny, he is only on 2 or 3% of the national vote.
Perot was included int he debates because his polling was very strong, in the high teens from memory.
The Democratic Party (the national comittee) has a procedure for selecting a new candidate. They can just do a vote from all Congressional Democrats, or they can call for a new convention. So all of the same delegates reconvene to decide.
If it is REALLY close to election day, the Congress can vote to delay the election.
Palin cant name a single newspaper she reads
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/palin-a-journalism-major_n_130707.html
RCP is currently projecting 7 gains for the Dems in the Senate (up to 58):
VA NH NM CO AK OR NC
I think we should be careful with using the term “blame” regarding the failed bailout. Some of the Repugs are claiming “credit” for the failure. Tomorrow, Congress will probably pass another version with a few amendments. Will the Democrats then be given “credit” for it passing?
and dont u love how the conservatives like Glen trumpet the no of deaths as a great thing when they have spent the last 5 years disputing the death count
Dio – I’m with you.
The only “Blame” that needs to be thrown ought to land right at the grubby little feet of that hack Alan Greenspan.
Funny isnt it – I’ve been saying for years that Greenspan is…
a)useless
and
b)his legacy will all end very badly
…(as have plenty of others mind you), but until very recently, to say such a thing was to be treated as a heretic as those f***tards of the Dow 36000 school of piffle held court. Yet now – well, it’s the new black… Daaaahrling.
The mind boggles sometimes at how quickly a group of lickspittles can change their spots.
I couldn’t believe this clip when I first saw it. McCain says talking about Congress and he actually says “If I were a dictator, which I always aspire to be….”
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=videonetwork&maven_playerId=immersiveplayer&maven_referralPlaylistId=b959b1ca832e44b7543c0c1d3b9b6ef23903c7fc&maven_referralObject=873470075
I got the original link from here…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/1/53121/1281/967/616354
Not as bad as Bush saying “This would be an easier job if it was a dictatorship; assuming I was the dictator.”
I have to admit that I hadn’t heard that about Bush before.
For these guys to be thinking it is scary stuff ShowsOn.
New Quinnpac poll with some very skewed numbers…
FL: Obama +8
OH: Obama +8
PA: Obama +15
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081001/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_battlegrounds;_ylt=AuuucKeqKT7bzY645kVNcVOyFz4D
These guys seem to have a pretty strong opinion about who’s to blame.
http://www.dependablerenegade.com/dependable_renegade/2008/09/yeah-that-prett.html
Possum
People who deny observable reality are often not guilty of “wishful thinking”. It’s often a hard-wired subconscious act. Kurt Vonnegut likens magical thinking to a cuckoo clock from Hell. The machinery works perfectly in turning the wheel and keeping time but there are teeth missing, which are simple, obvious truths accessible even to a ten year old. When the chain works on a gear with a group of teeth missing, the clock skips ahead for a few minutes, then keeps perfect time until more missing teeth are reached.
Some people are born missing groups of gear teeth, some have them willfully filed off by others or themselves.
Surely not!
Quinnipiac is one of the highly rated polls but something has to be wrong with those, unless they’ve changed their weightings. I’m gonna ignore them until we get some different polls in those states.
There’s a new Intrade market on whether or not Obama’s Presidential Intrade market will increase following the V.P. debate. It is currently on 65%. His presidential market is 64.9, which means it is up 7.4% in the last 2 days.
yes indeed. Both POTUS candidates are dud. So are the VP candidates. And the best candidate is not on the ticket. Pity the Americans. Pity the World.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/its-not-much-of-a-choice-for-americans-come-november-4-20080930-4r5x.html?page=-1
It looks overcooked from one perspective.
From another – the polls are simply catching up to where the State Intrade market has expected them to end up for, in some cases, months.
Yup. All 3 had MOE’s of 3.4%. Their previous poll had FL O +6, OH O +7, PA O +6.
They did another poll on Sep. 11:
FL: Obama -7
OH: Obama +5
PA: Obama +3
That Florida result can’t be right. I think it underestimated Obama’s vote 20 days ago, and has overestimated it now. For the others, the Sep 11 results seem to be more plausible than Today’s results.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
They did another poll just before the debate though which had
FL: Obama +6
OH: Obama +7
PA: Obama +6
I don’t think they face a dilemma at all, if they don’t like the options, they can stay home. We should have the same option here.
Does it make sense for state polls to lag behind national polls? Or should state polls pre-empt a swing about to start in national polls?
The Flordia figure is still suspect -7 to +6 in such a short time?
More likely there was a shift, but it was smaller (i.e. the true state of affairs was never -7)
Yeah, I dont buy the numbers either… probably a weighting change
Dario, don’t comment unless you have something worth saying. “Snore” self-evidently doesn’t cut it.
Betting on which way the betting will go…
Well at least we know what the Wall Street guys are doing now they’ve lost their jobs on the derivatives market.
If you have a look at Quinnipiac’s release, they’ve got pre- and post-debate figures, with around 2000 total for each state. They do seem out of whack though, and all in one direction.
Also, anyone notice the GWU Battleground poll for the last two days? After being the only poller to show a McCain lead for the last week, they stopped weighting on party ID and flipped to show Obama +2 for the past two days.
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