Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Newspoll geographic and demographic analysis

Newspoll today brings us its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, which our good friend Possum has converted into many pretty graphs. The most intruging aspect is that Labor has apparently gone off the boil in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor’s problems in the former territory hardly need reiterating in light of the events of last month, but the defeat of the Carpenter government has probably lanced the boil in terms of federal implications. Recent state polling from Newspoll and The Advertiser, along with anecdotal evidence regarding the Murray-Darling issue, underscores the point that South Australia could loom as a problem for Rudd. Luckily for Labor, they emerged from the 2007 election with healthy buffers in all the state’s traditionally marginal seats: 4.4 per cent in Kingston, 5.1 per cent in Hindmarsh, 6.7 per cent in Wakefield and 7.7 per cent in Makin.

Two other potentially significant indicators: Labor has maintained its honeymoon bounce in the 18-34 age category while losing it in the older groups; Kevin Rudd’s approval rating in South Australia has fallen 15 per cent since the first quarter.

116 Comments

  1. 1
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    Oh god more Marsupial graphs. Is there one that shows Labor winning Kooyong?

  2. 2
    MDMConnell
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    Interesting that NSW has held up reasonably well, despite all the problems of the state government. Maybe people are better at separating state and federal issues than we give them credit for.

  3. 3
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    In fact Labor is still ahead of where it was at the election in every state, as measured by 2PV, though only just in WA and SA.
    SA may be partly water and partly pensions – it’s the oldest state demographically.

  4. 4
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    I’m surprised that SA Labor has dipped so much? Water is beyond their control, so I don’t understand what issue is pushing this. WA is more understandable, given the scandal prone previous government.

    Also Australia’s trade performance is improving:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/02/2380274.htm?section=justin

    Still, as GG would say, Labor has always given us higher trade surpluses, so they must wear the blame for this one too :)

  5. 5
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

    Voters frequently blame governments for things which are beyond their control. I expect the Libs’ demogoguery over pensions has had an effect in Adelaide.

  6. 6
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    It seems that 50+ Males in the Bush, love the Lib/Nats.

  7. 7
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    Rudd will have the pension issue done and dusted well before the next election you’d think.

  8. 8
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    Rudd will have the pension issue done and dusted well before the next election you’d think

    Yup

  9. 9
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

    demogoguery = demagoguery, tsk

  10. 10
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    The Qld numbers are a disaster for the L-NP or LNP. Peter Dutton better start door-knocking. :)

  11. 11
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    i dont detect much anti Rudd here in Adelaide, saying that the Advertiser has been running an anti state and federal labor government vendetta for some time, Martin Hamilton Smith isnt THAT popular, even though the Advertiser poll shows the libs and labor as neck and neck in the state polls Rann out polls him easily as PP, Rann is pulling his socks up and most folk like him so i think things will change there.

  12. 12
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    I suspect from comments by Adelaide PBers that many think they have been “stitched” by the MD Water agreement.

    Perhaps Diogenes could comment.

  13. 13
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Missed today’s discussion on Swan and banks etc. but caught this:

    Australia’s “greatest ever Treasurer” is out and about giving economic advice to Kevin Rudd. I thought Costello’s economic management was part of the reason we are in the difficulties Rudd & Swan are now dealing with.

    If anyone’s interested there will be a full hour-long interview with Peter Costello tomorrow on ABC Radio’s The Conversation Hour from 11am Easter States (maybe the West as well, don’t know for sure).

    By my reckoning this would be the longest uninterrupted interview Cozzie has done for quite a while, and although The Conversation Hour is not normally confrontational, could be interesting.

    Also noted that McCrann was supportive of Swan. As was Greg Sheridan of Rudd this morning. Looks like the “word” may have been passed down from Rupert: first Paul Kelly, then Milne, now McCrann and Sheridan. Still Pies and Dennis to go. BTW where is Dennis?

  14. 14
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    Oh god more Marsupial graphs. Is there one that shows Labor winning Kooyong?
    There certainly isn’t one showing McCain winning Michigan.

    Martin Hamilton Smith isnt THAT popular,

    Curiously he is more popular than his policies, e.g. build a football stadium instead of a new hospital, bid for the Commonwealth Games, but don’t build the tram overpass.

  15. 15
    steve
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    10 ruawake, it appears the Liberal National Party is confusing everybody including their own supporters.

    Meanwhile, a senior strategist with Mr Springborg's Liberal National Party has warned that merging the state coalition partners was likely to cost the Coalition the next federal election.

    Newly elected LNP Brisbane Zone chairman Phil Williams said in a letter to LNP president Bruce McIver that the federal implications of the merger had not been thought through.

    Voters would be confused if they were voting for the LNP, the Liberal Party or the Nationals at a federal poll, Mr Williams said.

    "In seats like Ryan, I believe people vote for the Liberal Party, not the LNP, and we will lose votes. In marginal seats like Longman, this will cost us the ability to win."

    There was confusion about which party room in Canberra the federal LNP MPs should sit in, he said.

    Failure to address several issues "will in all likelihood cost the Coalition the next federal election", he said.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24433849-5006786,00.html

  16. 16
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    BB

    Costello did an hour long interview on “coastal conversations” ABC FM, yesterday. He just talks about his book. Expect “as I say in the book” to be heard many many times. :)

  17. 17
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    10 ruawake, it appears the Liberal National Party is confusing everybody including their own supporters.

    Why don’t think just run one LNP candidate in each seat?

    Surely if people don’t see NATIONAL PARTY or LIBERAL PARTY on the ballot they will go to the next closes thing.

    Costello did an hour long interview on “coastal conversations” ABC FM, yesterday. He just talks about his book. Expect “as I say in the book” to be heard many many times.

    He’s on Insiders tonight, I’m expecting to hear the same.

  18. 18
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn

    I expect there will be LNP and Liberal Party candidates at the next Qld election. This is what Phil Williams is saying.

  19. 19
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Ruawake:

    Costello did an hour long interview on “coastal conversations” ABC FM, yesterday.

    I stand corrected on that then.

  20. 20
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    I expect there will be LNP and Liberal Party candidates at the next Qld election. This is what Phil Williams is saying.

    Oh dear… I thought the Queensland Liberal party had all been wrapped up into the LNP.

  21. 21
    Centre
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    Wayne Swan is on fire at the moment (going sensational).

    After the election I used to give it to some family members whenever we’d get together, who all vote liberal, by saying “that’s a real foreign minister” everytime Smith would appear on telly. Now I say “that’s a real treasurer” everytime Swan is on TV. They do not like that lol. :) )

  22. 22
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn

    The LNP is basically a takeover of the Libs by the Nats and Santo’s faction of the Libs. 3,500 of the Libs membership of 5,500 have not joined the LNP.

    The LNP tried to get the QEC to deregister the Liberal Party, but failed. They cited non-existant letters from Libs. to back their claims.

    Even if they get their way there will be “Liberal” independants in many SE Qld seats.

  23. 23
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    Even if they get their way there will be “Liberal” independants in many SE Qld seats.

    If that’s the case, Rudd has just won the next election.

    If I was Turnbull I would be getting the LNP ratified as the new Queensland Liberal division ASAP.

    So do you mean at the next election Michael ‘Stacker’ Johnson will run as a Liberal, not as the LNP candidate?

  24. 24
    MayoFeral
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    BB @ 13 -

    Tip also said:

    Mr Costello said he regularly called the banks in for discussions when he was treasurer.

    “They have already allowed the banks to increase their margin by half a per cent. The banks are now charging an additional half a per cent over and above the Reserve Bank rate.”

    As the last real Treasurer we had before the current one pointed out on Lateline yesterday, instead of the banks paying the normal 0.25-0.50% premium on borrowings, they are having to cough up 2.5% (the LIBOR rate hit 6.88% on Tuesday!), assuming they can actually find someone willing to lend money ATM, which makes the 50 basis points fairly reasonable.

    So wasn’t Costello watching, or didn’t he understand it?

    Or, as I posted yesterday, maybe the Libs want one of the banks to teeter so as to justify Turnbull’s repeated calls last week for the Government to bailout the banks.

  25. 25
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    COAG has agreed for the Feds to take over all areas of consumer credit (mortgage regulation etc) by mid next year, plus several other agreements

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/credit-and-climate-deals/2008/10/02/1222651254128.html

  26. 26
    steve
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    20 “Oh dear… I thought the Queensland Liberal party had all been wrapped up into the LNP.”

    Shows on, the problem is that they were supposed to deregister the Liberal Party and National Party names by now but with the changeover to Turnbull the wheels have fallen off the process. Seems like they don’t have the numbers to get it past the Liberal Federal Executive and Liberal Federal Council.

    Even if they do eventually it will probably spark a court case and we are still left with the Liberal National Party when in Queensland and the Liberal and National Parties when in Canberra. Also under the Liberal National Party constitution the members when in Canberra can sit in the party room of the Liberal Party or the National Party depending on which way the wind is blowing on the day.

  27. 27
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    So wasn’t Costello watching, or didn’t he understand it?

    Probably both.

    COAG has agreed for the Feds to take over all areas of consumer credit (mortgage regulation etc) by mid next year, plus several other agreements

    This makes sense. The Feds get blamed when rates go up and down, so they may as well be responsible for the regulation.

  28. 28
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Shows on, the problem is that they were supposed to deregister the Liberal Party and National Party names by now but with the changeover to Turnbull the wheels have fallen off the process. Seems like they don’t have the numbers to get it past the Liberal Federal Executive and Liberal Federal Council.

    How could they let this happen! With Labor it seems if the leader wants something to happen it gets done after a bit of arm twisting (especially if they are the P.M.).

  29. 29
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    ruawake@22

    You have got to be joking!! If the LNP and Libs run candidates agin each other it would have to cost them. ALP would run riot with “poisonous disunited rabble” type adverts and have a ball.

    Wonder if there would be enough animosity betwixt LNP and remaining Libs for some of them to do a D’Orazio (like in the W.A. election) with preferences?

  30. 30
    steve
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    28 Shows on, nothing gets solved by the conservatives in Queensland until it has been through the Supreme Court. Only then can a decision be said to have been made.

  31. 31
    steve
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    Even Dr Flegg got to state parliament via the Supreme Court. It is the tory way up here.

  32. 32
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

    Poor Possium! Adam will never let him live Kooyong down!! maybe Possium should play in Adam roof while Adam is trying to sleep ;)

  33. 33
    ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    If you go to http://www.qld.liberal.org.au you will be re-directed to http://www.lnp.org.au. Then if you look for any policies you will be directed to springborg.com, but will find no policies.

  34. 34
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:48 pm | Permalink

    GG

    Judith is right about Rudd but wrong about Rann. Most people can’t stand him and if MHS wasn’t such a hopeless blowhard (and he’s the best Liberal, you NEVER see the rest of his team they are so inept) Rann would have been forced to resign by now and hand over to Foley.

    On the issues, Rudd is getting a protest vote because of the MDB. Having Penny Wong perceived as pulling the rug out from her fellow Crow Eaters has gone down very poorly. When summer hits, the anger will get worse. We are an old State as Adam said and the pension grandstanding by the Libs has helped them.

    On the tactics, Rann is totally entrenched as a good news only, do-nothing, Media populist now. The SA Libs (Pyne, Minchin, Downer) are trying to tar Rudd with the same brush in SA (Are the Libs using this tactic in other states?)

  35. 35
    James J
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7636225.stm

    Anybody know if there is similar analysis of Rudd’s speeches during his time as opposition leader?

  36. 36
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    I agree with Diogenes (34) it is a perception of all talk and no action on the Murray that is hitting federal Labor in SA.

    It is possible that this gap between rhetoric and reality is much more of a problem for Labor’s climate change policy than whether motorists will be paying a few extra cents on the litre.

  37. 37
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes, MHS comes up with nothing but populist ideas ah la Nelson, most see them as pie in the sky and dont take him seriously, i listen to talkback all night {nightmares keep me from sleeping} and most call ins are just commenting he’d send the state broke in no time flat, the only anti Rudd program is Bob Francis who is a fanatical red neck lib –he even lauded Pauline Hanson when she was in parliament, i avoid that program like the plague,in the past i’ve knocked back commenting on that program when B.V.E was in the news, by the way i listen but never ring, im interested in everyone’s ideas.

  38. 38
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

    “They have already allowed the banks to increase their margin by half a per cent. The banks are now charging an additional half a per cent over and above the Reserve Bank rate.”

    Costello thinks banks lend at cost?

  39. 39
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 6:34 pm | Permalink

    the Advertiser is doing the lib’s work for them, as they did with the charactor assasination of Cornes, westerners complain their paper is fanatical lib, i think the Advertiser would give them a run for their money, much as i love the cryptic crossword i stopped buying it a while back, Chris Kenny and Downer are their regular columnists–nuff said.

  40. 40
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

    I not normally a big fan bt, Terry McRann in the Melbourne Sun probably got it right this morning when he said,

    “This is not a good time to undermine the profitability of our banks. Even accepting, and indeed precisely because, they have made some poor decisions themselves.

    In an ultimate sense, if you have to choose between banks gouging borrowers and being ‘nice’, running the risk of being seen as less safe for depositors, go for the gouging. ”

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24433272-36281,00.html

  41. 41
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 7:16 pm | Permalink

    Poor Possium! Adam will never let him live Kooyong down!! maybe Possium should play in Adam roof while Adam is trying to sleep ;)

    Or just mention that Adam said McCain would win Michigan.

  42. 42
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

    I guess this polling is reason for news ltd’s wonderfull “Labor Support Eases” story today?
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24434390-5007133,00.html

  43. 43
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    The 18-34s are less likely to have kids, a mortgage amd other family related expenses. With interest rtes on the rise, petrol up 50 cents a litre and inflation at the supermarket, these youngsters may have dodged the financial bullet at this stage.

  44. 44
    Nate The Great
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    from article Grog posted (42)

    Labor Support Eases

    SUPPORT for the Labor Federal Government has eroded since it came to power in November last year…When the Rudd government was elected its support was 52.7 per cent on a two-party-preferred measure…New newspoll figures published by News Ltd today put support for Labor at 56 per cent for July to September…

    Huh, am I missing something?

  45. 45
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    Yes you are Nate. You’re missing a sense of illogic. :-)

  46. 46
    Nate The Great
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    In other news, Oceania Has Always Been at War With Eurasia

  47. 47
    David Charles
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    Judith Barnes @ 39 Keep up your earnest work on this blog. Perhaps you are a member of the coffee-table cryptic crossword clique.

  48. 48
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Yes Nate, the headline and comment about support easing is incorrect. As another PBer said:

    In fact Labor is still ahead of where it was at the election in every state, as measured by 2PV, though only just in WA and SA.

  49. 49
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    Yesterday I forecast that there could be a reduced surplus for the 2008/2009 year.

    But I never imagined it could cop a hit such as this prediction. I hope it’s wrong.

    There are fears the federal surplus could take a $10 billion hit as a result of reduced revenues and the global financial crisis.

    But Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner said Infrastructure Australia and the Building Australia Fund were safe.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24436360-5013871,00.html

  50. 50
    Miss Ella Nious
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Thinking of the demographics of who votes for whom – does anyone know of a site that offerred a 20point quizz that indicates the party(ies) you most connect with? I remember doing the test about a decade ago and came up as a Democrat of the Chip variety. And it was pretty spot on for me at the time but I jumped ship about 2 elections back. “I think I’m a fundamentalist but I can’t be sure about that” Thanks for any help!

  51. 51
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    Thinking of the demographics of who votes for whom - does anyone know of a site that offerred a 20point quizz that indicates the party(ies) you most connect with?

    Here’s one that was popular on this blog about a year ago:
    http://www.politicalcompass.org/

    Click “Take the test” near the top left.

  52. 52
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    I did not say McCain would win Michigan, (SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management). I said Michigan was in play, which it is, or at least was when I said it was.

  53. 53
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    I did not say McCain would win Michigan, (SNIP: Abuse deleted - The Management). I said Michigan was in play, which it is, or at least was when I said it was.

    You obviously didn’t look at enough polls before coming to that judgment.
    [Here’s one that was popular on this blog about a year ago:
    http://www.politicalcompass.org/
    My results:
    http://www.politicalcompass.org/facebook/pcgraphpng.php?ec=-3.88&soc=-4.15

  54. 54
    MayoFeral
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    scorpio @ 49 -

    Yesterday I forecast that there could be a reduced surplus for the 2008/2009 year.

    But I never imagined it could cop a hit such as this prediction. I hope it’s wrong.

    There are fears the federal surplus could take a $10 billion hit as a result of reduced revenues and the global financial crisis.

    No need to panic, scorpio. As the born-to-ruler-in-chief was telling us just last week in another context, $10 billion isn’t really that much. A mere bagatelle. Loose change. Of course he’d know. All Libs are economic geniarses (sic). It’s a fundamental law of the Universe. Plus he was a banker and their financial skills are legendary. You only need to read the papers!

    Sigh ;(

  55. 55
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Can we please take this argument about Michigan to the other thread (or better yet, knock it on the head altogether).

  56. 56
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Don’t change the subject. You told a deliberate lie about what I said, and that’s the second time you’ve done so.

  57. 57
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    qanda is a cack tonite
    cossi and david marr sparring

  58. 58
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    David Charles, earnest work???? i’m the blog lurker, i just drop in the occasional remark to let everyone know i’m still around, as for the coffee table cryptic crossword set–well i’ve gone cold turkey since i’ve given up buying the Advertiser, now why does this decrepit old dear get the idea your taking the micky out of her?

  59. 59
    Miss Ella Nious
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Showson – I am on the axis above you – I want a bit more authority and some government regulation – my sympathies seem to be covered more by maverick independents than a major party. About 10% of the questions I was forced to answer in a way that did not cover my values – but I guess these people know how to make the best of a persons reluctance to be pigeonholed into a black and white position.

  60. 60
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Gusface, it’s a bit more interesting than last week, Cossie’s looking rather bored –that is until he came to life to plug his book.

  61. 61
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    judith
    qanda is actually getting better each time

    I often say to the naysayers that could they imagine howard allowing such a program

    aint democracy grand!

    ps david marr is one cool bloke-he should have his own show

  62. 62
    dyspnoeia
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    The only good thing about tom switzer is the 10 or so kg of carbon he sequestrates

  63. 63
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    Don’t change the subject.

    LOL! Why can’t I respond to two subjects in a single post?

    Anyway, as William points out, this is more relevant on the U.S. thread; you know the one you’re allergic to.

    The only good thing about tom switzer is the 10 or so kg of carbon he sequestrates

    LOL!

    Thanks Showson - I am on the axis above you -

    What were your actual numbers? Mine are: economic = -3.88 social = -4.15

  64. 64
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    David Marr is making this weeks show, Cossie hasnt improved with absence, i’m remembering just why i cant stand the man.

  65. 65
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    dyspnoeia
    “The only good thing about tom switzer is the 10 or so kg of carbon he sequestrates”

    dont say that, it is always good to get an insight into what the enemy is thinking :)

  66. 66
    Ron
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    Adam ,

    I support th accuracy of your last comment regarding ShowsOn having had same occur many numerous times , further statisticaly on published Polls your then judgement is supported & furthermore not long prior thereto that electorate was going to bee actualy lost by 4%

    On SA & age groups I think Murray River problems ar easier to tarnish Federal Labor with by one liners like “NSW irriigators ar hording/cheating” on water from SA , rather than truth that there is a drought and there is insufficent water with stored water curently at 4800 being only 20% of stored capacity

  67. 67
    Miss Ella Nious
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    SHowson – I got -2.88 on the economics scale and +0.1 on the authoritie – I sit below the pope who is about -2 on the economy and about +2 on Authority.

  68. 68
    vera
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Judith i don’t know what the Advertiser cryptic crosswords you miss doing are like but the SMH ones used to be OK (I haven’t done one for a couple of years) If you are interested you can do them online. here’s the link
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/puzzles/premium/cryptic.html

  69. 69
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    I support th accuracy of your last comment regarding ShowsOn having had same occur many numerous times

    Well done for standing up for your idol! Are you his official attack dog now? It seems you either don’t understand my replies, or more likely you go out of your way to misinterpret everything I write. So your judgment of my posts is completely meaningless.

    SHowson - I got -2.88 on the economics scale and +0.1 on the authoritie - I sit below the pope who is about -2 on the economy and about +2 on Authority.

    Cool, very interesting.

  70. 70
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Tom Switzer doesn’t even know what SIEV X was!

    Where do they find these terrible hacks that don’t even read about recent political history?

  71. 71
    Ron
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    ShowsON , you got caught out by both Adam and me for telling untruths , growup & move on rather than spoiling a good blog site

  72. 72
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    I’ll be drawing a line now under the ShowsOn versus Ron and Adam dispute.

  73. 73
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    SNIP: See above – The Management.

  74. 74
    Ron
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Hi Vera

    Turnbull an ex Mercant Banker pretends to on th side of aussie battlers criticising Banks interst rates

    Seems he’s been too busy reading Costello’s book to notice how th Global financial mess has forced up cost of funds

    By th way ar you a crosswords expert

  75. 75
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    thanks Vera, i’ve put it in favourites, ahhh pure bliss, my computor, my books, a cryptic crossword and reading a good blog along with my morning coffees, i cant think of a better way to start the day lol.

  76. 76
    evan14
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    G’day William and everyone else!
    Surprisingly, Smirky was entertaining on Q&A tonight, Smirky vs Roxon was worth the price of admission alone!
    Why is the ABC ending the series so early? Have they run out of money?

  77. 77
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Ronster

    The Tiser is not only anti-Labor bit it is even more anti-Vic, anti-NSW and anti-Qld. It’s almost xenophobic. They know they’re on a winner berating the Govt on Water. It gets them their equivalent of votes, ie papers sold. Any positive step by Rudd is greeted either with derision, claims of tokenism or as a victory for the Tiser. It’s going to be a bumpy road.

  78. 78
    Ron
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    ar CrowEaters into wishful thinking like possums that its been raining , I mean there is an official audit Report of stored water demonstrating insufficency (& 2 more verification audits to come) , its insufficent notwithstanding some irregularities usage of a miniscule minority in North , or don’t they believe in droughts

  79. 79
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes, i’m glad i’m not the only one to think it’s a lib blue rag, when i look back i wonder why it took me so long to jettison it, in the end it took only 10 mins to read it from cover to cover and the only interesting part was Ruchi’s baiting my beloved crows or Graham Cornes putting his foot in it.

  80. 80
    vera
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    no worries Judith

    Hey Smirk’s getting a lot of free advertising for his book on the ABC isn’t he? a couple of hour long radio slots and TV tonight.

  81. 81
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes, i’m glad i’m not the only one to think it’s a lib blue rag, when i look back i wonder why it took me so long to jettison it, in the end it took only 10 mins to read it from cover to cover and the only interesting part was Ruchi’s baiting my beloved crows or Graham Cornes putting his foot in it.

    I reckon it was reasonably balanced up until Martin Hamilton-Smith became opposition leader. He is from the old guard / establishment faction of the Libs which has always been closely tied to the ’tiser. (You know, Alexander Downer types).

    But maybe it just seemed that way because Rann didn’t have any competition?

  82. 82
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Hey Smirk’s getting a lot of free advertising for his book on the ABC isn’t he?

    It isn’t working…

  83. 83
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    Talking about Tom Switzer, I’m sure a number of people will love this.

    WHEN Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor of The Australian, appears on ABC television's final Q&A program for the year tonight, he will be out to impress. Switzer, who is sharing the small screen with Peter Costello, Nicola Roxon, David Marr, Cheryl Kernot and host Tony Jones, left The Oz to take up a position in Brendan Nelson's office when Nelson was leader of the Liberal Party. He brushed aside the concerns voiced by some of his newspaper colleagues, assuring them that if Nelson were replaced by Malcolm Turnbull, he would still have a job. After all, he got on well with Turnbull. And Switzer's wife, Sarah Stock, was once Turnbull's press secretary. But with Nelson on the backbench and Turnbull in the box seat, Switzer has found himself without a job in the Opposition Leader's office. Scuttlebutt in the corridors of Parliament House suggests he may be joining one of the high-profile, privately funded think tanks such as the Lowy or Sydney institutes.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24431869-25090,00.html

  84. 84
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Off to bed, last one for the night.

    Malcolm still a novelty

    THINGS are clearly moving too fast for some people in Canberra. Strewth rang Malcolm Turnbull's office yesterday afternoon. "Good afternoon, Brendan Nelson's office," said the woman answering. "Oh, sorry. Malcolm Turnbull's office."

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24402331-25090,00.html

  85. 85
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Scuttlebutt in the corridors of Parliament House suggests he may be joining one of the high-profile, privately funded think tanks such as the Lowy or Sydney institutes.

    So that he can learn what the SIEV X was?

  86. 86
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    The Advertiser is total rubbish contains virtually nothing of any interest, the worst of the major papers and that is ignoring their bias nature. Even the NT News is better.

  87. 87
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Showson, it wasnt too bad until Meville Mansel took over as editor, thats when my journo pal decamped for greener pastures and he aint regretted it.

  88. 88
    vera
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    hello Ron
    thank god your’e Ok, hadn’t seen you for a while, got worried. sent coast guard to the Island incase you were in need of rescuing!

  89. 89
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Showson, it wasnt too bad until Meville Mansel took over as editor, thats when my journo pal decamped for greener pastures and he aint regretted it.

    When did he take over (roughly)?

  90. 90
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Vera the smirks book sales are so slow that very soon he’ll have to pay people to take them from the givaway bin.

  91. 91
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    about 3-4 years ago from what i can remember.

  92. 92
    Ron
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Thanks Vera

    Well they’ve been trying to kidnap me out of fear my truthful snake oil salemen posts may get into international blogs & destroy that mirage , but our great Labor Leader Kevin07 to th rescue

    Labor polls still great after 11 months aren’t they

  93. 93
    vera
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    your’e right there judith. Mungo Macullum had a good article that mentioned Cossie’s book sales (or lack of) if you missed it it;s worth a read. give you a laugh
    http://www.echo.net.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1045&Itemid=543

  94. 94
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    I suspect Labor’s polls would be even higher if the media hadn’t started to run their various attacking memes. In effect much of the media has been the proxy Opposition party. Makes you wonder why they are so keen to protect a bunch of no hopers except they identify with them.

  95. 95
    vera
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    Yep ron good old Kev won’t let us down. Oils makes my skin crawl, get the heebie jeebies just looking at him lol

  96. 96
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    your right Vera, it was an excellent laugh, i’m going to go to bed dreaming of Cossie’s books, homeless and in the streets begging for a handout or a nice warm bookshelf lol.

  97. 97
    Ron
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    me too Vera , and th religous type blind support so contrasts with normative Labor supporters here supporting Kevin07 but then Greens supporters hav different non practical politcal views on economics , FA , health & like

  98. 98
    vera
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:36 am | Permalink

    agree ron. Greens are able to put forward all the feel good stuff (must admit I agree with a lot of it) without any costings as they know they’ll never be in a position to be held accountable. Then they slag off Kev for being “gutless” on climate change, slag him off again for not increasing pensions (i think they wanted about $60 increase for all pensioners) Could it be they think money grows on trees?

  99. 99
    Ron
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:54 am | Permalink

    Vera

    “Could it be they think money grows on trees?”

    Vera , there seems to br alot of things in those trees , greens , possums , money and Brendan Nelsons lost credibility

    Tou ar right Vera , slagging off at Rudd with economicaly lunatic promises is irresponsible and on CC they’d hav us with th Greenest of Green Australia but they’d be no job so we’d all starve !

    Kevin07 has to find a balance between CC and a future plus jobs for our kids and believe he will do so

  100. 100
    vera
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 1:23 am | Permalink

    I think Kev will talk to and work with anyone and everyone, no grandstanding unlike howard, to get things done. He and the WA leader had their first chat and Kev gave him credit for new ideas on closing the gap and they are having a special COAG metting early next year dedicated entirely to the topic
    If you’re still about g’night ron, and watch your back if you venture to the dark island

  101. 101
    Ron
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 1:58 am | Permalink

    Thanks Vera

    agree with your comment about no grandstanding , isn’t it a pleasure to see a dinkum politcan , sure he’ll make mistakes along road but th core ‘left’ policys he believes in to be implemented overall will benefit ‘oz’

    Yes was abit naughty…again , did venture again & was an affiable thorn (again) amongst so many precious petals Now apart from th unbelievable religous fervour of support displayed that we agree upon thats so different from supporters of Kevin07 , is political supporters who only read th equivalent of th OO …but worse lots of equivalent OO’ every day ….like how do you form objective thoughts if your sources ar so biggotedly biased

    whereas in ‘oz’ , do like a number of writers in Fin Review , Age & SMH and give all of Uncle Ruperts newspapers a miss

  102. 102
    Ron
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 1:58 am | Permalink

    and nite Vera

  103. 103
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    What is it with Michelle “La Stupenda” Grattan and “tests”?

    But with an interest rate fall of 0.25 or 0.5 of a percentage point coming next week, Rudd and Swan are facing a real political test, coming under pressure to say the banks should pass on the whole rise.

    Every piece she writes has a new one. Fielding is a test. Interest rates are a test. Turnbull is a test. Petrol excise is a test. The budget was a big test.

    It’s clear to me she still thinks the Rudd government is illegitimate, winning an election last year (which was a pretty big test all on its own, I would’ve thought) on the back of what she famously called “counter-intuitive” polls that had been indicating Labor had been ahead since early 2006.

    There are other predictables in every Grattan article. I went searching for the “Heads I win, tails you lose” section, and found it pretty quickly:

    There are two extreme scenarios for what lies ahead. At the most optimistic end: the Congress could quickly pass the bail-out, which could work a minor miracle and the crisis could abate fairly soon. At the pessimistic end: the bail-out could fail in Congress, or pass but not do the trick and the meltdown could worsen.

    That pretty-well covers it all: the bill could pass, it could fail, or it might not work anyway. There might be a miracle… or there might not be. Any other squares on the roulette table need a chip placed on them before we spin the wheel? Why, yes! Her next sentence is:

    There are many positions between.

    …rounding out Michelle’s Delphic epistle of fearless predictions.

    So whether everything works, fails, or works at first and then fails, or anything happens in-between, Australia’s diva of political journalism has it covered.

    An newspaper gal through-and-through, La Stupenda lives and dies by the old reporter’s maxim: “You read it here first.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/its-a-question-of-nerve-20081002-4sr8.html?page=-1

  104. 104
    steve
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    The Liberal Federal Executive has finally got around to approving the Liberal National Party.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/03/2380988.htm

  105. 105
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    What about this story! Home Affairs Minister Bob Debus met with senior Australian Crime Commission officials, who promptly opened a file on the minister and included details of their night out:
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/secret-file-on-minister-20081002-4suv.html

    Debus is the Minister in charge of the Australian Crime Commission, so it is a bit suspect for them to start a file on him without any good reason to do so.

    If this is true heads will roll.

  106. 106
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    The Liberal Federal Executive has finally got around to approving the Liberal National Party.

    So does this mean the Liberal Party in Queensland no longer counts as the Queensland division of the Liberal Party?

    If the LNP and Liberals both stand candidates in the same seats at the next election then they will be doing Kevin Rudd a huge favour.

  107. 107
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    before they can field candidates they have to work out which party room each member should  meet in and just who can/cant vote at each meeting, then their voters will have to try and work out who of the plethora of candidates they want to vote for, what a schemozzle!

  108. 108
    Dario
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Federal infrastructure program being brought forward 3 months to Christmas

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sydney-to-reap-benefits-of-20b-lifeline/2008/10/02/1222651267629.html

  109. 109
    BigBob
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    The infrastructure timetable advance has me thinking that Rudd & co. are expecting to have to do some pump priming via large projects in the next few years.

    It could actually be the perfect time, as the world economy slows, all those tradespeople and engineers employed by the resource boom are going to need somewhere to head to.

  110. 110
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    i guess that will stop the whiners that Rudd’s doing nothing, the dills dont realise that it’s just as well we have a prudent government in now, one that carefully examines policy before implimenting it, rather than one who’ll paper over the cracks and gloss over the nitty gritty facts.

  111. 111
    dovif
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Judith Barnes

    2 things wrong with your assertion

    The fund was set up by the prudent Howard government, who invested this amount for future capital projects, ie if the economy in the future slows, this will kick start the economy with 20billion…… that would be your prudent government

    Rudd is just tapping into the kitty set up by Howard, and the economy had been slowing for a year now, people are still paying too high interest rate and inflation is still high, there is an argument for using this kitty later (to not increase inflation) or earlier (ie NSW in recession for 1 year now – incompetant government)

    To say Rudd is doing a lot by saying he is using Howard and Costello’s kitty is a bit rich

  112. 112
    Dario
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    The fund was set up by the prudent Howard government, who invested this amount for future capital projects, ie if the economy in the future slows, this will kick start the economy with 20billion…… that would be your prudent government

    Saving money and never spending it while the house falls down around you is not ‘prudent’

  113. 113
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    To quote the chief economist at the ANZ Bank – the Howard government ‘wasted every dollar of the surpluses’. The kitties they developed were to keep election time pork barrelling money away from ministers that actually might want to have policy. The current government has decided that the money that should have been spent on infrastructure over the past 10 years better get spent from now on to improve productivity and capacities, whilst we still have some China boom left.

  114. 114
    Gusface
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Showson
    “What about this story! Home Affairs Minister Bob Debus met with senior Australian Crime Commission officials, who promptly opened a file on the minister and included details of their night out”

    they still think Howard is giving the orders :(

    ps debus aint the only labor pollie they have a file on i venture!

  115. 115
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    c’mon dovif, that fund was set up from the left over monies from the mining boom, that is after Howard had greased the palms of his top end of the town mates and spreed it vote buying, Costello had an embarrassment of riches that even Howard couldnt spend, the whole boom money should have been spent on infrastructure, hospitals, schools and universities, this country could have been the envy of the world instead of our utilities, ports and roads being second grade and we should have had by now one of the most skilled workforces in the world, Costello didnt have to stir a finger the money rolled in in a tidal wave and most was wasted just as quickly, Howard and Costello have a lot to answer for, just think of where we’d be now if that money was used properly, think of the Iraq war waste and what about the enormous amounts an egotistical Howard wasted on ads to try sell himself and Hiacynth intending to waste 1/2 mill. on redoing the diningroom to seat another two guests, what about the enormous amount to wallpaper the prime ministerial plane that Howard used for his never ending trips too and from Sydney and Canberra because the Lodge wasnt good enough for him,i could go on and on, add all of that to the rampant pork barrelling that was the Howard/Costello legacy, Rudd even tries to save the public purse by staying with our ambassadors rather than $10,000 a night hotels as the Howards and co did, i’d say he’s a prudent PM.i dont often rant but this is one thing that has me fired up.

  116. 116
    Posted Friday, October 3, 2008 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    New thread.