Newspoll today brings us its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, which our good friend Possum has converted into many pretty graphs. The most intruging aspect is that Labor has apparently gone off the boil in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor’s problems in the former territory hardly need reiterating in light of the events of last month, but the defeat of the Carpenter government has probably lanced the boil in terms of federal implications. Recent state polling from Newspoll and The Advertiser, along with anecdotal evidence regarding the Murray-Darling issue, underscores the point that South Australia could loom as a problem for Rudd. Luckily for Labor, they emerged from the 2007 election with healthy buffers in all the state’s traditionally marginal seats: 4.4 per cent in Kingston, 5.1 per cent in Hindmarsh, 6.7 per cent in Wakefield and 7.7 per cent in Makin.
Two other potentially significant indicators: Labor has maintained its honeymoon bounce in the 18-34 age category while losing it in the older groups; Kevin Rudd’s approval rating in South Australia has fallen 15 per cent since the first quarter.
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Here’s one that was popular on this blog about a year ago:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/
Click “Take the test” near the top left.
I did not say McCain would win Michigan, (SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management). I said Michigan was in play, which it is, or at least was when I said it was.
You obviously didn’t look at enough polls before coming to that judgment.
[Here’s one that was popular on this blog about a year ago:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/
My results:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/facebook/pcgraphpng.php?ec=-3.88&soc=-4.15
scorpio @ 49 -
Yesterday I forecast that there could be a reduced surplus for the 2008/2009 year.
But I never imagined it could cop a hit such as this prediction. I hope it’s wrong.
No need to panic, scorpio. As the born-to-ruler-in-chief was telling us just last week in another context, $10 billion isn’t really that much. A mere bagatelle. Loose change. Of course he’d know. All Libs are economic geniarses (sic). It’s a fundamental law of the Universe. Plus he was a banker and their financial skills are legendary. You only need to read the papers!
Sigh ;(
Can we please take this argument about Michigan to the other thread (or better yet, knock it on the head altogether).
Don’t change the subject. You told a deliberate lie about what I said, and that’s the second time you’ve done so.
qanda is a cack tonite
cossi and david marr sparring
David Charles, earnest work???? i’m the blog lurker, i just drop in the occasional remark to let everyone know i’m still around, as for the coffee table cryptic crossword set–well i’ve gone cold turkey since i’ve given up buying the Advertiser, now why does this decrepit old dear get the idea your taking the micky out of her?
Thanks Showson – I am on the axis above you – I want a bit more authority and some government regulation – my sympathies seem to be covered more by maverick independents than a major party. About 10% of the questions I was forced to answer in a way that did not cover my values – but I guess these people know how to make the best of a persons reluctance to be pigeonholed into a black and white position.
Gusface, it’s a bit more interesting than last week, Cossie’s looking rather bored –that is until he came to life to plug his book.
judith
qanda is actually getting better each time
I often say to the naysayers that could they imagine howard allowing such a program
aint democracy grand!
ps david marr is one cool bloke-he should have his own show
The only good thing about tom switzer is the 10 or so kg of carbon he sequestrates
LOL! Why can’t I respond to two subjects in a single post?
Anyway, as William points out, this is more relevant on the U.S. thread; you know the one you’re allergic to.
LOL!
What were your actual numbers? Mine are: economic = -3.88 social = -4.15
David Marr is making this weeks show, Cossie hasnt improved with absence, i’m remembering just why i cant stand the man.
dyspnoeia
“The only good thing about tom switzer is the 10 or so kg of carbon he sequestrates”
dont say that, it is always good to get an insight into what the enemy is thinking
Adam ,
I support th accuracy of your last comment regarding ShowsOn having had same occur many numerous times , further statisticaly on published Polls your then judgement is supported & furthermore not long prior thereto that electorate was going to bee actualy lost by 4%
On SA & age groups I think Murray River problems ar easier to tarnish Federal Labor with by one liners like “NSW irriigators ar hording/cheating” on water from SA , rather than truth that there is a drought and there is insufficent water with stored water curently at 4800 being only 20% of stored capacity
SHowson – I got -2.88 on the economics scale and +0.1 on the authoritie – I sit below the pope who is about -2 on the economy and about +2 on Authority.
Judith i don’t know what the Advertiser cryptic crosswords you miss doing are like but the SMH ones used to be OK (I haven’t done one for a couple of years) If you are interested you can do them online. here’s the link
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/puzzles/premium/cryptic.html
Well done for standing up for your idol! Are you his official attack dog now? It seems you either don’t understand my replies, or more likely you go out of your way to misinterpret everything I write. So your judgment of my posts is completely meaningless.
Cool, very interesting.
Tom Switzer doesn’t even know what SIEV X was!
Where do they find these terrible hacks that don’t even read about recent political history?
ShowsON , you got caught out by both Adam and me for telling untruths , growup & move on rather than spoiling a good blog site
I’ll be drawing a line now under the ShowsOn versus Ron and Adam dispute.
SNIP: See above – The Management.
Hi Vera
Turnbull an ex Mercant Banker pretends to on th side of aussie battlers criticising Banks interst rates
Seems he’s been too busy reading Costello’s book to notice how th Global financial mess has forced up cost of funds
By th way ar you a crosswords expert
thanks Vera, i’ve put it in favourites, ahhh pure bliss, my computor, my books, a cryptic crossword and reading a good blog along with my morning coffees, i cant think of a better way to start the day lol.
G’day William and everyone else!
Surprisingly, Smirky was entertaining on Q&A tonight, Smirky vs Roxon was worth the price of admission alone!
Why is the ABC ending the series so early? Have they run out of money?
Ronster
The Tiser is not only anti-Labor bit it is even more anti-Vic, anti-NSW and anti-Qld. It’s almost xenophobic. They know they’re on a winner berating the Govt on Water. It gets them their equivalent of votes, ie papers sold. Any positive step by Rudd is greeted either with derision, claims of tokenism or as a victory for the Tiser. It’s going to be a bumpy road.
ar CrowEaters into wishful thinking like possums that its been raining , I mean there is an official audit Report of stored water demonstrating insufficency (& 2 more verification audits to come) , its insufficent notwithstanding some irregularities usage of a miniscule minority in North , or don’t they believe in droughts
Diogenes, i’m glad i’m not the only one to think it’s a lib blue rag, when i look back i wonder why it took me so long to jettison it, in the end it took only 10 mins to read it from cover to cover and the only interesting part was Ruchi’s baiting my beloved crows or Graham Cornes putting his foot in it.
no worries Judith
Hey Smirk’s getting a lot of free advertising for his book on the ABC isn’t he? a couple of hour long radio slots and TV tonight.
I reckon it was reasonably balanced up until Martin Hamilton-Smith became opposition leader. He is from the old guard / establishment faction of the Libs which has always been closely tied to the ’tiser. (You know, Alexander Downer types).
But maybe it just seemed that way because Rann didn’t have any competition?
It isn’t working…
Talking about Tom Switzer, I’m sure a number of people will love this.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24431869-25090,00.html
Off to bed, last one for the night.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24402331-25090,00.html
So that he can learn what the SIEV X was?
The Advertiser is total rubbish contains virtually nothing of any interest, the worst of the major papers and that is ignoring their bias nature. Even the NT News is better.
Showson, it wasnt too bad until Meville Mansel took over as editor, thats when my journo pal decamped for greener pastures and he aint regretted it.
hello Ron
thank god your’e Ok, hadn’t seen you for a while, got worried. sent coast guard to the Island incase you were in need of rescuing!
When did he take over (roughly)?
Vera the smirks book sales are so slow that very soon he’ll have to pay people to take them from the givaway bin.
about 3-4 years ago from what i can remember.
Thanks Vera
Well they’ve been trying to kidnap me out of fear my truthful snake oil salemen posts may get into international blogs & destroy that mirage , but our great Labor Leader Kevin07 to th rescue
Labor polls still great after 11 months aren’t they
your’e right there judith. Mungo Macullum had a good article that mentioned Cossie’s book sales (or lack of) if you missed it it;s worth a read. give you a laugh
http://www.echo.net.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1045&Itemid=543
I suspect Labor’s polls would be even higher if the media hadn’t started to run their various attacking memes. In effect much of the media has been the proxy Opposition party. Makes you wonder why they are so keen to protect a bunch of no hopers except they identify with them.
Yep ron good old Kev won’t let us down. Oils makes my skin crawl, get the heebie jeebies just looking at him lol
your right Vera, it was an excellent laugh, i’m going to go to bed dreaming of Cossie’s books, homeless and in the streets begging for a handout or a nice warm bookshelf lol.
me too Vera , and th religous type blind support so contrasts with normative Labor supporters here supporting Kevin07 but then Greens supporters hav different non practical politcal views on economics , FA , health & like
agree ron. Greens are able to put forward all the feel good stuff (must admit I agree with a lot of it) without any costings as they know they’ll never be in a position to be held accountable. Then they slag off Kev for being “gutless” on climate change, slag him off again for not increasing pensions (i think they wanted about $60 increase for all pensioners) Could it be they think money grows on trees?
Vera
“Could it be they think money grows on trees?”
Vera , there seems to br alot of things in those trees , greens , possums , money and Brendan Nelsons lost credibility
Tou ar right Vera , slagging off at Rudd with economicaly lunatic promises is irresponsible and on CC they’d hav us with th Greenest of Green Australia but they’d be no job so we’d all starve !
Kevin07 has to find a balance between CC and a future plus jobs for our kids and believe he will do so
I think Kev will talk to and work with anyone and everyone, no grandstanding unlike howard, to get things done. He and the WA leader had their first chat and Kev gave him credit for new ideas on closing the gap and they are having a special COAG metting early next year dedicated entirely to the topic
If you’re still about g’night ron, and watch your back if you venture to the dark island
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