As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).
| October 1-8 | Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV |
| Pennsylvania | 51.3 | 40.6 | 2552 | 21 | |
| Michigan | 51.1 | 41.3 | 531 | 17 | |
| Washington | 53.0 | 43.6 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 52.6 | 43.3 | 2160 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 51.1 | 42.2 | 3073 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.2 | 44.3 | 1531 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 46.8 | 42.2 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.0 | 46.6 | 500 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 49.3 | 44.9 | 6622 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 49.6 | 45.4 | 2891 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 49.9 | 46.2 | 1768 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 48.5 | 45.2 | 2110 | 9 | |
| Florida | 49.3 | 46.0 | 2250 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.6 | 46.0 | 3113 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.7 | 47.5 | 1000 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.5 | 48.7 | 1477 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 182 | 163 |
| RCP/Total | 49 | 43.9 | - | 364 | 174 |
As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.
UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.
760 Comments
William, where did you find a poll giving Obama 50.9 in Georgia?
Also, both RCP and electoralvote have McCain ahead in Indiana.
The World needs a POTUS that will heal and unite America so that it can provide solid leadership at home and then radiate out to the World. Unfortunately, Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS. Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is. Sorry to say that but IMHO that how it will pan out. I pity the USA and the World.
/Edward scissor hands style on
How do you know this?
What do you mean by this? Do you mean because he is black?
William,
Which states are you considering swing states? Would they be the RCP toss up states or are you using another measure?
I beg your pardon, I had Georgia the wrong way around. Indiana is explained in the post: at present I’m only using polling from the past few days. I will eventually expand the range of polling I use to maybe a fortnight.
Julie, I pretty much followed Electoral-Vote’s lead.
And McCain & Palin would unite them… riiiiiiight
Remember George W Bush’s 2000 campaign mantra? “I’m a uniter, not a divider”, look how that turned out!
#4 The Show Must Go On
WTF?
LOL!
William
ecuse ignorance
but is there a chance of
1.obama winning mccains home state
2.is there an point(as such) that obama wins a record number of states
tanks
For the Hilary fan club. In-trade has Hilary at 1.5 in the race – currently coming third!
No. McCain is up there by around 10%
No. He would have to win all 50 in order to beat Reagan in 1984:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1984
She would be higher if Obama and McCain died.
Electoral-Vote has McCain leading 52-38 in Arizona, so I wouldn’t have thought so. Reagan won every state except Minnesota (and DC) in 1984 – I wouldn’t get too excited about Obama’s prospects of doing as well as that.
Nixon in ‘72 won 49 states as well.
Sorry ShowsOn,William
re point 2-I was referring to Obama as regards a democrat benchmark
supplementary:is arizona the safest state for mccain
Excuse me? Who in politics isn’t divisive to any extent?
Well then Obama is the man; in terms of the rest of the world looking at America, Obama is the uniter. McCain is just Bush-old.
My guess would be FDR winning 46 states in 1932. The next closest is I think LBJ winning 44+DC in 1964.
No. It is probably Utah, he is currently up there by about 30%
FINNS
“we even have a new Czarina who is sounding more and more like the old one”
yes & catlike too , also a chris c 20 posts an hour and foot soldiers but commonality does extends to both disinformation & th ‘ Gotti’ teflon don effect , but bailout changed it all & would hav done in reverse human nature
Ron, golden rule: talk about politics, not other commenters.
RCP now has Missouri in the Obama camp under its no tossup states map
…….. He is winning all of the tossup states (in their opinion) excepting Indiana at present …..
I bet Indiana falls to him under the no tossup map before the election, I’m changing my EV guess
………
I read something somewhere today that no Republican has become President without winning Indiana.
night, folks
I stopped reading after this line of utter BS
Actually, it was the last line! Good thing I stopped
Has John McCain been reading John Howards campaign notes for Howard tried this attack on the man tactic and it didn’t work so why would an intelligent man like McCain need such a tactic.
This in looking like a real Republican bloodbath, Middle America appears to be swinging really hard.
Oh not The Media again! It is always brainwashing everyone.
Mr Greenwald has a bit to say about McCains new tactics and he’s not very impressed. It’s sad that a basically decent guy like McCain has sunk so low.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/
I think he is trying to do to Obama what George W Bush did to you during the 2000 Republican primary.
Julie, can you please link to things rather than cutting and pasting large volumes of text.
Oi!! Not fair!
I’m stuck with Colorado as my “over the line” state, when Florida is looking good to do the trick – 60% on intrade
I would drop Maine and Washington.
Kerry won both comfortably enough.
Pretty damning indictment on the Democrats. Shame!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=exxVZTKq1vA
gee that NRCC plays it pretty stright. I do like an unbiased view of things.
Next GP can you give us a link from the Liberal Party web site saying Turnbull is a financial genius as proof that Rudd and Swan don’t know what they’re doing…
hey, we’re not alone!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24461769-5012572,00.html
ShowsON
I think mccain is close to drawing a line under arizona onwards.
methinks a handful of states is all mccain will end up garnering
i want to change my prediction from 326 to 348 juliem (pls)
GP, that video says that the Repubs saw that something was wrong in 03 right? Weren’t they in power in Congress then as well? If they wanted something done, couldn’t they have done it?
3
[The World needs a POTUS that will heal and unite America so that it can provide solid leadership at home and then radiate out to the World. Unfortunately, Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS. Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is. Sorry to say that but IMHO that how it will pan out. I pity the USA and the World}
Actually Finns, most of the world is saying they would prefer Obama.
Ok, things are officially getting stupid:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20081007/mccain-iran-contra/
The mud is now being flung thick and fast on both sides. (good for Obama for showing he ain’t going to be pushed around like some weak a*se John Kerry; but bad that he is – in a perfect world sense)
But going for McCain for links to Iran-Contra? Hell the entire US Government was linked to them, Reagan, Bush et al etc were in bed all the freakin way.
What next? Ollie North and McCain having dinner at Perugino’s?
Now they are looking for McCain to pwn Obama in tomorrow (Tuesday night US ).
I highly doubt it.
The problem for McCain is the electorate is well used to republican slander and mud slinging now. Just doesn’t have the same effect. Oh, and he is looking old. Real old.
Also notice the Tories in Canada are slipping. Majority Government looks a forlorn hope. However the Libs are tanking so its back to minority tory government.
No 41
Communism is a bad thing, Reagan was overwhelmingly popular thanks to his virulent anti-communist tendencies and I doubt Obama’s amateur attempt at mud-slinging will stick.
you have a strange definition of communism son.
It dosent need to stick. He is winning. Thats the point. McCains mud needs to stick and so far it aint.
Harper is getting into all sorts of trouble for idiotic plagiarism, including stealing a whole speech from our greatest PM, John Winston Howard:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081004.wharperplagiarism1004/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
10
Finns, are you channelling Frank Sinatra or something.
I don’t believe I provided a definition for you to critique!
Obama’s lead is quite tenuous given how unpopular the current president is. McCain is certainly not out of the race.
Charity begins at home. if Obama cannot heal and unite his own country. He cannot hope to likewise for the World. He will be too busy fighting the bush fires in his own backyard.
I am continuously amazed at the density of the Obama supporters here. just because I criticise Obama, they automatically assume that I support McCain or want McCain to win. They are both duds.
I have said it too many times already, one more time wont hurt. the best candidate is not even on the ticket.
GP @ 47
Your chronological correlation with McCain may be blinding you, but Obama is romping home.
“It’s the economy, stupid”.
Yep death squads good; communism in any form bad.
That type of BS is what got America into the foreign policy mess it is now.
It’s why Vietnam was such a f*ck up of a war. It’s why they propped up Saddam (that was Reagan too wasn’t it?)
Just because I think the mud on McCain won’t really stick on this one doesn’t mean I think the policy was anything other than unadulterated shite.
Pretty much every government the USA propped up to serve as a “baulk against communism” was corrupt, sadistic and economically cruel.
No 49
If you’re implying that I’m aged, you’d be wrong. You’d also be ageist and discriminatory. Gotta love hypocrisy and double standards from NoBama supporters.
As I said, Bush is the most unpopular president on record, yet Obama’s lead is a few points.
If you think that constitutes a romp, you’ve been drinking too much Kool-aid.
Ah the old, we’re so bad you should be beating us by more gambit.
I’ll take an 8 point lead in Gallup as sizeable enough.
FINNS
#3
“Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is.”
Correct , So whilst Obama is a ‘left’ policy vacuum , has a sleezy past & is a serial liar on events , to elitist liberals that does not matter , not at all ……just th elitist liberal mirage matters , …….for Obamabots it all stalled on th ‘yes we can’ button , and it has always been
And th Obamabot golden rule including marsupials has been to personaly attack th messenger including amigos you , and all there 000’s of posts hav beeen reely disinformation on anything adverse Obama then anti MCain , anti Hillary anti Palin and anti anyone & everything but not pro why Obama (except being a non Bush)…an intelelctual vacuum
Anyone who can crash a plane into Corpus Christi Bay can probably do as good a job on the economy as Dubya.
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-aviator6-2008oct06,0,1670799.story
Palins May Owe Tens of Thousands of Dollars in Back Taxes
When Sarah Palin accepted John McCain’s offer to be his running mate, she probably didn’t fully realize what being in the national spotlight meant. For example, your tax returns get to be analyzed in public (for free) by miscellaneous tax experts. Gov. Palin actually lives in Wasilla, a suburb of Anchorage, but the state capital is in Juneau, 500 miles away as the crow flies (assuming they have crows in Alaska). On the many nights she stayed at home, she claimed to have been away from the capital on business and was reimbursed $17,000 by the state for this “travel.” Being paid a per diem for staying in your own home is ethically dicey but probably legal since “away on business” is probably defined as “not near your office.” However, Palin was also paid $25,000 to reimburse her husband and children for being away from “home” (Juneau) which she did not list as income. A D.C. tax lawyer and two law school professors specializing in tax law have concluded that if the State of Alaska wants to pay the governor to take her family on “business trips” that is its good right, but the money received is taxable income under the internal revenue code and the Palins should have declared it and paid tax on it, which they did not.
At the moment on intrade Obama is up 353 to 185; RCP no toss ups has him winning 364-174. What do you need GP to have the polls suggesting a romp? Obama hitting 400?
True. Swarzenegger wasn’t born in the US. What a bummer.
57 Dario – I happen to agree that the US could do a lot worse than Arnold. (not sure if you were joking).
Arnold v Hillary. Now there would have been a debate worth watching!
I am sorry GP. I read the ‘G’ as ‘Geriatric’; not ‘Generic’. Not sure why…
BTW – what’s Kool-aid??
Yes, I was joking
I think I’d rather shoot myself
A landslide like Nixon won for his second term is unlikely as the pattern of State based votes has changed……. eg no Republican is likely to win California nor most of
the East,,,,,,,,,,, nor will a democratic win Texas or most of the south
The polls now are suggesting Mr Obama will win most of the swing states
Stuff they stick in the middle of an electric acid test.
Whatchoo talkin’ about, Willis?
Enemy Marsupial , thought ‘Kool-aid’ was what held your data together as it lead way from adverse Obama info , or does it just support th branchs
Well then I guess it was all for the best then!
I still think Ahnold has done ok with Ca. His environmental polices are good (have to admit I have not examined his other aspect with a fine tooth comb)
Good point, Mick@61. As much as people here may not like to admit/discuss, marketing/media strategy has come a long way since the 1970’s. It is no co-incidence that elections have all become very close in OECD countries where sophisticated marketing strategies are the norm. Given that, the Dem lead in the current polls is quite remarkable.
Well from memory Gary Coleman did run for Governor as well…
‘the Dem lead in the current polls is quite remarkable.’
why wouldn’t it be with a $800 billion bailout , game changer
Poss @ 62 – is an acid test the same as a litmus test?
No 65
Arnie has had a lot of trouble passing the budget recently and there are now concerns he’ll need to seek an emergency loan from the Feds. Part of the problem is that the budget cycle is too erratic, relying heavily on consumption taxes derived from the holiday season and spring.
That’s why Biden said the U.S. would have to cut its foreign aid budget during the debate.
You should write explicitly what you are referring to instead of just reverting to innuendo.
LOL! Great argument.
We know this, you’ve said it too many times already.
Shall I post you a Kleenex?
I think Truman still has him on that score, but it is getting very close.
Ron, do you realise in the American context “liberal” means “left wing”? You say he is a left policy vacumn, but then you say he is a liberal elitist. Your claim he is elitist needs to have a discussion with the claim he is a left policy vacumn.
Well, I attack your arguments. You ignore my arguments, then attack “Obamabots”. Again, you need to get the end of your sentences to talk things over with the start of your sentences.
Whatever Hilary Clinton would’ve got plus 75 more.
No 68
Yeah, the game change is for the worse. Over $10 trillion in debt? Are these imbeciles for real?
GP 70. Tnanks I take back all I said about the Terminator.
That’s what happens when a President is ideologically committed to tax cuts that the budget and economy can’t afford.
That’s what happens when politicians are driven by ideology instead of reality.
Holy plastic dashboard Jesuses Batman! I’ll tell you what Kool-aid is Ron… my Jonestown shout.
The acid test quip was just me being a smart arse. It’s a Tom Wolfe Novel
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Electric_Kool-Aid_Acid_Test
Kool aid is cordial, made infamous for a while because it’s what the 900+ people in Jonestown used to mix with cyanide to kill themselves with.
Poss
leave uncle jimmy out of it
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=771_1223358692
too not to
@75. Pity. Probably would have voted GOP.
Ahh! Reaganomics in action!
Enemy Marsupia
“I’ll tell you what Kool-aid is Ron… my Jonestown shout.
The acid test quip was just me being a smart arse’
well we agree on something , Jonestown was not and is not a laughing matter
Why not? Who sets the rules on what can and can not be laughed at?
The idea that laughing should be policed is a liberal elitist notion.
It’s deadly serious
Gary Coleman missed out on being the Govenor of California but had fun trying –
http://www.bumpshack.com/2008/02/12/shannon-price-and-gary-coleman-secretly-wed/
FWIW and it’s probably not a lot I was lunching with a bunch of principals from small independent real estate agencies. Not a radical lot usually. The talk got round to the US election and the overwhelming consensus was that Obama had to win or we would be all roo-ted. None were impressed by Palin. Frankly I was amazed. Of course they don’t vote in US elections…
Also slightly off thread they were either happy or neutral about Rudd’s performance to date.
It is obvious that laughter has caused the current crisis. The humor ’spread’ between short term ‘cheap’ jokes and longer wave ’sublime’ humour has lead the world into its current crisis. I think we need Reserve Bank intervention to buy up cheap jokes.
STOP IT!
Contact Possum, he has one above going really, really cheap.
El Nino
but then some clown will set up a derivatives market
And once they’ve bought Steve Fielding – what the hell do they do with him?
I’ve got one about a horse going into a bar that I think I could dress up as Shakespearian comedy…
The Australia for Obama groups are holding trivia nights soon. This thread is a source of lots of questions, even if the answers are a bit dodgy sometimes. Which 2 states don’t have a winner-takes-all electoral college votes system? Is the allocation of EV’s per State based on population? Which is the second largest State EV wise? Where is Dick Cheney hiding? (Perhaps they should take him moose shooting with the Governor.)
Poss, who is playing the Obama cheap joke on the USA and the World?
Enemy Marsupial , realise possums do alot of strange things up trees especialy with data , but cloning a shows amateur to defend you has not been one of your success’s , this ‘fan’ sort of makes your ayres perilousness worse
Without Google, I answer;
1. Florida, not sure about the other.
2. No.
3. Texas
4. Not sure. Maybe Dubya shot him?
Chuck him in a Koala suit and drop him off at a railway station with a bucket
Nebraska and Maine.
Finns, if you listen to Sarah Palin its the terrorists.
WTF?
ShowsOn – maybe it is Shakespearian.
what another egg head Michael Moore believing th terrorists did not execute 9/11 , yea terorists just won’t even exist in Obamabotic heaven…get reel , Rudd like Palin believes terrorists ar a threat
ayres=heirs=obama?
Maybe it is a Shakespearian rap a’ la Grandmaster Flash.
Maybe, or more likely Shakesbeerian.[what another egg head Michael Moore believing th terrorists did not execute 9/11 ]
This sentence.
Doesn’t relate to this sentence.
Which doesn’t relate to this sentence.
Of course Michael Moore is a moron, but your attempt to tie his views to Obama’s is nonsensical.
Poss, you are still on the danger list in my household for pooing liberally my back porch, still contemplating the Sarah Palin final solution. So watch it.
Comedy of Errors perhaps
ShowsOn, I dips me semiotic lid to ya.
@104 – Poss – I didn’t know you did renovations? I also have a porch that needs an overhaul. WTF?
Hey Finns – I ain’t no Moose!
Thread entropy is goooooooo!
Oh dear.
The latest newsbreak from BBC. Very intriguing.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7656546.stm
oh great now vodoo politics will get a run
or will they try and link obama to the mau mau
Sounds nonsensical to me.
But the idea that anyone should be arrested for writing a book is just completely absurd. The more attention directed at conspiracy theorists the more conspiracy theorists there will be.
join Michael Moore you seem to agree
FINNS
how come you zapped those parrots from your porch over to me Discussing geo politcal matters like th terorist threat that Palin & Rudd hav discussed seems beyond there elitist liberal comprehension but maybe they ar crazy pacifists like michael moore there idol
no postive Obama comments tonite , 15 anti everyone else ones
I wonder if he is the same guy who claims life insurance after being ‘killed’ by a white Hiace in Nairobi.
Finns – maybe Corsi (an utter fruitloop BTW) was in Kenya looking for Palin’s witchdoctor
Kenya is, if nothing else, getting a prominent run in this election.
We agree at last.
Five new Time/CNN polls
North Carolina: Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Indiana: McCain 51%, Obama 46%
New Hampshire: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Who agrees with what?
Does this have something to do with telling people what they can and can’t laugh at?
Unbelievable.
I can’t believe this stage is still in play at this stage.
ShowsOn
Both Adam & I hav previously proved you lie by twisting posters comments and last sentence of your #103 is another lie , no poster should take your blogs seriously
Watch it ShowsOn, it’s contagious!
McCain only has a single digit lead in Indiana
good grief
We also agreed last year that tariffs are bad.
North Carolina is a bit like Virginia, in that its urbanizing and becoming less conservative.
However, it should still be more conservative than Virginia. In a close election it wouldn’t be in play. But I’m not surprised that Obama’s competitive there when he’s running so far ahead nationally.
The allocation of electors is based on congressional representation: 2 per state (like the Senate) plus one per House of Reps member.
The two states Maine and Nebraska that do not use state-wide winner takes all have one elector per House district and two state-wide.
The most electors come from California (by a long way).
You didn’t prove anything. To prove something you need to provide evidence and back it up with logical reasoning, you haven’t ever come even close to doing either in response to any of my posts. But I’m glad you’ve re-designated yourself as Adam’s attack dog.
Well no one takes your posts seriously. Just because Michael Moore says something doesn’t mean Obama agrees with it. Just because you put things in the same clunky sentence doesn’t mean they actually follow on from each other. That invisible pink unicorn is still balancing on your head, even if you can’t see it.
Apparently he is running twice as much advertising there as McCain. And Obama is running ATTACKS “socialised medicine”, he is trying to show that his policy is a middle way between privatisation and full Government run healthcare.
So he is kind of attacking himself from the right there to appeal to moderate and centrist voters.
Ron, “liar” is unparliamentary. Tone it down, please.
William
I’ve always respected this is your site
A respected public figure previously has made two posts on PB (correctly) calling ShowsOn a liar for quoting words a poster did not even say (his posts I copied)
Subsequently I hav (corectly) called ShowsOn a liar also for th same reason His conduct is unacceptable and calling him truthfully a liar is only a reasonable & accurate response and there is no intent to disrespect you
Washington Post-ABC poll of Ohio
Likely voters – 51-45 Obama
Registered voters – 51-43 Obama
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100608.html?hpid=topnews
From the same poll – what is your most important issue:
Economy/Jobs 52
Health care 9
Iraq/War in Iraq 6
Not good for McCain
In which case, I erred in not telling the respected public figure to tone it down also. There are plenty of other ways you could have forcefully stated your case.
In other news, I’ve updated my state polling table to include the Time figures. Indiana is back in the McCain column.
LOL! OH NOES Ronster has a DOSSIER (but not a dictionary).
Re-read post 128.
No way! Antony Green called me a liar! When did this occur?
I’m calling my lawyers.
That’ll do.
So I’ve had this gut feeling for a while, but I’m going to make it public – I think McCain’s going to win.
No 136
I agree.
LIAR!
Sorry. I mean, maybe, or maybe not.
If McCain does win from here it would probably make a great book and / or documentary.
Speaking of Doco’s, do you folks know that Ed Norton (the actor) has had cameras behind the scenes with Obama since 2006 making a doco on him, before Obama had decided to run for President?
But the best bit is, those cameras stayed with him when and after he decided to run.
What’s the bet this doco breaks all records when it’s released?
It’s set to be released next year.
Woah! Sounds great.
I’ll have to re-watch The War Room soon.
It goes with him from the decision to run, through to setting up the ground apparatus, through the primaries and (I’d imagine) on through the general election (I haven’t heard any updates about it for a few months).
It will be a cracker!
No 140
I’d rather watch The Dismissal to peacefully rejoice at the excellent decision to rid Australia of a most harmful government in 1975.
Whatever floats your constitutional crisis.
William , I’ve respected your decisions as moderator in past and again accept fully your #132 decision , (notwithstanding wrong posts made in #133 & #134 made after your #132 decision , and then surprisingly a further post in #138 after your second decision in #135 ……which i’m unable to reply to without disrespecting breaching your #132 decsion which I wouldn’t)
Zogby tracking poll: Obama 47.7, McCain 45.3.
I didn’t call Antony Green a liar. I thought you asserted that he called me a liar. He is the only “respected public figure” I know who visits this board.
William is a public figure only when W.A. elections are on.
Enough comedy for the evening.
Well its been good to see comedy displayed tonite , some people ar naturals
As for Wall Street there’s been no comedt there , pity Republican & Democrat HoR were so irresponsible in not passing a first Bailout Bill , seeing by time 2nd was passed alot of its ‘value’ was diminshed causing current falls Why they just did not initially guarantee deposits is a disappointment or take them over less poison debts , but not take partial equity
McCain’s Intrade is starting to resemble Wall street – now below 30
Another thing about comedy is if one CLOSELY follows those that run a circular arguement , they end up where they originally started from…but with a different answer …then shock horror sets in as th embarrasment of th anser they’re left with
Another issue is US election regarding UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE where I’ve asserted John Edwards & Hillary supported this key ‘left ‘policy’ of universal healthcare and Obama does NOT
Anyone looking at John Edwards & Hillarys sites can see there policys ar universal healthcare Furthermore I’ve quoted Elizabeth Edwards in this regard
Anyone looking at Obama’s site past th disengenuous first page can also see Obama’s policy is NOT universal healthcare (why ignore first page ? because Obama disengenuously says his policy “covers” all Americans , th word “covers” is misleading , Obama’s policy “addresses all Americans IF they chose to be covered and IF they can afford to be covered
John McCain can also say his policy “covers” all Americans also , but like Obama’s it simply “addresses” all americans IF they chose to be covered and IF they can afford to be covered
Once one actualy looks at detail of Obama’s and McCain’s health policys its very obvious neither ar universal healthcare for all adult & kids in America
Glad NOW to see an Obama csupporter has finally acknowledged Obama does NOT hav a universal healthcare policy (unlike Edwards & Hillary had)
#127
“Apparently he is running twice as much advertising there as McCain. And Obama is running ATTACKS “socialised medicine”, he is trying to show that his policy is a middle way between privatisation and full Government run healthcare.
So he is kind of attacking himself from the right there to appeal to moderate and centrist voters”
Obama’s ads tell th truth about his policy Now I realise this info will not alter th non rusted on Obama supporters (Obamaphiles) at all from still supporting Obama & don’t expect to , however prefer posters know th policy truth rahter than th Obamabotic
policy disinformation & unreality
And yes by th way , Obama’s health policy is I acknowledge is better than McCain’s , but that was not my point , neither ar universal healthcare , with ‘poor/working familys of 45 million with no health insurance and a futher 30 odd million under insured
No 151
Neither are universal healthcare, but the United States simply cannot afford to take on more spending given the outrageously high $10 trillion deficit that currently exists.
As much as this pains me to say it, a dramatic cut in spending and/or an increase in consumption taxes will be required. There is simply no other way to solve the egregious debt problem.
Survey USA: Obama 55, McCain 40 in Pennsylvania.
Mason-Dixon: Obama 48, McCain 46 in Florida. This raises my eyebrows a little:
Muhlenberg College: Obama 43, McCain 38, which I make 53-42 after distribution of the 10 per cent likely to vote but undecided.
Grog @ 33,
If you want to change a guess, any changes are fine as long as I receive them before 10pm Tuesday November 4th.
Gus @ 38, got it, no worries
El Nino @ 49, same line which put Bill into the WH in 92
……
Grog @ 52,
If you will take 8pts, you will be happy with this, in my inbox this Wednesday morning, I get this update once every 24 hours …
Oz @ 136, GP @ 137,
Care to put an EV total to your McCain guesses?
Glad that the 2nd and 3rd debates, today 8th and #3 16th of October don’t overlap with the cricket [9-13 Oct test 1 and 17-21 test 2].
And the BCCI has kindly scheduled the start of the 4th test on Wednesday 5th Nov but not until 1400 local time here in Canberra and that is 11pm on Election night in Washington ….. Hope we get a result before the test starts
……
This article discusses the depth of a rebuilt electoral coalition in the US after this election ……
Voter registrations have closed in some states. Dems gathered 250,000 more voters in FL than the Repubs.
William @ 155,
The Muhlenberg poll has Obama up 48-38 in PA (not 43-38):
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release10-07.pdf
McCain has pegged back 0.7 on the RCP average in last 24 hours.
Virginia is gone now for sure, if it ever was (after recent days/weeks) still in the McCain camp …
oppss ….. post #167 should refer to the fact that this impacts upon the potential Nebraska vote, not the Virginia vote. Hagel is a NE senator … my mistake ….
They live in Virginia most of the time I believe, so it will have an impact there
Obama ahead in the last three polls in PA by 10%, 13% and 15%. Why is McCain such a fool as to continue campaigning there? He should have got out ages ago.
There is a slight narrowing in the national polls but the state polls are getting even worse for McCain. Ohio and Virginia are going to need a lot of work for McCain. The Virginians are really upset he has only visited there once.
Someone said that Obama and McCain are playing electoral chicken with PA and VA by campaigning in each others backyard. Both sides said that each was waiting for the other side to blink and rush to defend it’s turf. It’s time for McCain to blink.
I’m predicting one of the highest turnouts in US electoral history on 4 Nov. Even the disaffected Hillary supporters now know their economic well being is at risk and cannot take a risk on McCain being elected.
One proviso though. If the polls keep trending to Obama as they have been, it is possible that a lot of the McCain supporters will read the writing on the wall and not bother turning up.
You’d have to wonder why McCain is still going after PA, NH and MN.
Obama is leading in the RCP averages in those state by 12.0%, 10.7% and 10.5% respectively.
These 3 states are now stronger than NJ, ME or IA (although that may be due to the fact that no one has polled those 3 states very much in recent weeks)…
It’s hard to tell how the expectation of an Obamaslide will affect the turnout. Obama supporters might turn up less because they think it’s in the bag. McCain supporters might not want to waste their time voting when they’re going to lose.
The history of huge margins in the US suggests to me that when an easy win is predicted, it favours the leader. Perhaps Possum could correlate turnout with win expectation as determined by polls?
I just had to come in and say… holy hell, only 29 days? Or more specifically… 28 now.
That’s just positively scary. Seems only yesterday one was watching Iowa counting, only a few hours ago Hillary was refusing to drop out even after having, well, lost. Where on earth did the year go?
Anyway. Carry on, as you were…
WOW Ron! You paid me a compliment! Why thank you fine Sir.
I’m curious if America had compulsory attending of the booths like we do which side would it favor?
The Democrats. Democrats have a huge advantage in registered party identification, but this advantage shrinks when only likely voters are taken into account.
Additionally, anecdotal evidence (in the UK, primarily), suggests that compulsory voting favours parties of the left…
Plus Democrats have a grass roots network of college students and unionists to man the polling places.
where is william’s debate thread? ??
Right here.
What did McCain write when he sat down!? His name?
“The US government’s budget deficit has ballooned in fiscal 2008 to 438 billion US dollars (322 billion euros), or 3.1 percent of GDP.”
http://news.smh.com.au/world/us-budget-deficit-soars-to-438-bln-dlrs-congressional-agency-20081008-4weg.html
Good luck whoever “wins”.
I think the debate was much closer on substance than CNN poll: Obama 54, McCain 30
I can only conclude that people have marked it based on the look of the candidates, McCain waddling along, versus Obama looking young and healthy.
Perception is reality, and the U.S. voters seem to want BIG change. McCain is just another old white guy trying to convince us that tax cuts are the solution to everything.
CNN still talking about the “that man” jibe ……. as well as the fact that McCain left immediately and didn’t hang around – both as points that McCain’s body language wasn’t good and voters surely will pick up on that or more to the point, that McCain has not helped himself and might have hurt his case tonight.
Yeah, it’s going to be a huge mess. I suppose they will have some comfort that the mess itself isn’t going to be blamed on them, but it will make it very difficult to get anything done other than fixing up that said mess.
These instant polls are nothing more than a bit of fun. The only ones worth anything will be the national daily polls in a few days.
But for the first debate, and the V.P. debate the later polls came out basically the same.
Intrade seems to be taking the polls seriously! Obama reaches 71.4%
http://www.intrade.com/
CNN commentator says reason McCain left the hall early and didn’t stick around to mingle with the crowd is because he already knows he has lost the election ….. (I think that but that is a brave call this early coming from a national TV commentator)
Was it George Stephanopolous? One of Clinton’s key spin-doctors?
Oh my bad, he works for ABC I think.
Obama beats McCain on economy and domestic issues by 20% margins while foreign policy and security are statistical ties.
That’s a ridiculously brave (or stupid) call. There’s still 29 days to go until Election Day and 1 more debate – a lot of things can change until Nov 4…
Slate.com has a cool iPhone / iPod Touch application that downloads poll results:
http://www.slate.com/id/2200655/
It costs AUD$1.19
On the CNN phone poll I should add
What about independent voters? Did Obama win them again?
I don’t recall them being exactly the same. Same ‘winner’ perhaps, but the margins were quite different weren’t they?
I think there was one that said Obama won by 5%, but most others said he won by 10%
The later V.P. results were very similar too.
There’s a replay of the “that one” comment here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/that-one-mccain-calls-oba_n_132802.html
ShowsOn, it was James Carville …
LOL F’ING LOL
Well that was Clinton’s OTHER spin doctor!
#183
The USA was founded by old white men complaining about tax and they’ve voted for old white men promising tax cuts in virtually every election since independence. This election they’re either going to get white guy promising tax cuts or half-white guy promising tax cuts.
For what it is worth, CNN will replay the debate at 3pm local time when they are done with their spin on it so anyone who wants to review it WITH the worm, that is where you can find it …..
True, but THAT GUY is also proposing to increase taxes on the top 5% to pay for tax cuts for nearly everyone else. (Which is exactly what Clinton did in his first budget).
THAT GUY makes more sense to me.
ShowsOn @ 203,
Doesn’t really matter who gives the spin when you think about it. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, it is a duck. With numbers like the polls are showing now and no signs that it will turn around, I don’t blame Carville for thinking that. Just think that he was damm brave for saying it on air
CBS news poll of 500 people
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/07/politics/horserace/entry4508356.shtml
Yeah but that’s Carville, he is one pundit who has the guts to make big calls early.
Which I guess is how he managed to help make some guy president.
Have you seen The War Room? It is basically about Carville and Stephanopolous running Clinton’s campaign:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0108515/
He definitely does make more sense, and he’s going a decent job of selling the idea but I just wanted to clarify my view that this isn’t a paradigm shift in American voting habits where they are rejecting the tax cut candidate because they want “change”.
How good would it be if you could win an election without tax cuts. We’d have a $50 billion surplus now… offtopic.
I think voters are realising that cutting taxes can’t solve every problem, especially when Government debt caused by tax cuts is one reason the economy is in such a mess.
Well, Rudd won by promising to delay the tax cuts to the highest income earners. Obama is doing the same.
These debates are almost meaningless, in the form that they are.
The press always get excited looking for a “knockout blow”, but of course, it never happens. These guys are professionals, they aren’t going to make mistakes or get “knocked out”.
Of course, they always refer back to the 1960 debate between Nixon and Kennedy, as a decisive event in determining the election.
Perhaps it was.
But so were the alleged activities of Joe Kennedy and Frank Sinatra in allegedly commissioning the Chigaco Mafia to allegedly organise union votes on Kennedy’s behalf.
Check this out, it looks like the same bunch of knobs that have been pissing large sums of money up the wall on Intrade over the last few weeks in a desperate bid to keep McCains price up on the Contender markets just got burned.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/mccaindebate.png
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/obamadebate.png
What about the supposed killer answer Clinton gave in the 1992 debate after Bush looked at his watch, re-adjusted his trousers, but couldn’t even figure out what the question was?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ffbFvKlWqE
Is this the first sniff of a wind change in the polls?
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/10/06/daily23.html
GG
I believe one of the blogs nailed that meme.
Could be GG.
Although – Obama is still up by 9, 8 and 7 points respectively in the (larger) Gallup, Rasmussen and Battleground Tracking polls.
We’ll seen soon enough – 3 polls out of 20 in 1 day isn’t definitive evidence of anything…
Shows on, I think the defeat of George Herbert Walker Bush in 1992 had more to do with the 20 million votes picked up by Ross Perot than anything that happened in any debate.
Insider advantage polls
Colorado 485 LV, 5%
Obama 51, McCain 45
Nevada 468 LV, 5%
Obama 49, McCain 47
I am making a brief return to the US thread, having watched all the debates so far. It’s obvious now that Obama will win. This is mainly because the economy has tanked so badly, and has done so while the Republicans are in office. McCain is a Republican and can’t hide from that fact. His bid to run as an independent maverick was tactically sound, but has been steam-rollered by events. Them’s the breaks. In fact of course the current crisis has been caused BOTH by the reckless tax-cutting and reckless deregulation of the Republicans AND by the reckless encouragement of irresponsible lending under the guise of “affordable housing” by the Clinton administration and Democratic Congress. But McCain has been unable to make this case in the current sh*tstorm, and he has to carry the can for the complete discrediting of the Bush administration and the Republican Party. It’s true that “anything can happen in four weeks,” but on today’s performance I can’t see how McCain can turn this around. He looks tired and grumpy and that’s because he knows he is losing. No amount of harping on Obama’s negatives will turn the tide – people know Obama’s negatives and they don’t care. The analogy with Rudd v Howard in that regard is fairly obvious.
We should be careful of all these polls saying that Obama is superior on all these various policy fronts. That just reflects the fact that people have made up their minds to vote for him and are rationalising that decision post facto – this is a well-known phenomenon in polling of this kind. In fact Obama has no clear policy superiority, because his policies are all just bland platitudes as he showed again today. That may get him through the election, but it won’t help him with the very tough choices that will be on his desk come Jan 20. I am still of the view that he is woefully unprepared to be president (much more unprepared than Rudd was to be PM of Australia – I also think Rudd is more naturally talented). He will be taking office in the worst circumstances of any president since Gerry Ford – and we know what happened to him. The analogy with FDR coming to power in 1933 is obviously more attractive for Democrats, and maybe Obama will be the new FDR, but I can’t see it at the moment. He could just as easily turn out to be Ramsay MacDonald.
Probably not
Possum
What sums of money are we talking about them losing?
“Cherry picking”? Perish the thought! This is the first sniff. Just like his consistent dismissals in earlier threads of suggestions* of a looming global financial crisis, GG has nailed this one … the winds of change my friends …
* Promoted by his old sparring partner, KR.
Oops…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/in-debate-mccain-touted-m_n_132828.html
“These debates are almost meaningless, in the form that they are.”
Only a Greek philosopher could bring wisdom to an Obamabotic back slapping unreality
Or a barbarian at th other spectrum extremity Debates ar good for ratings , good for politcal rusred on , good business for Pollsters….but reely irrelevant these days Whereas th ’spin” is relevant & king Would not expect polls to move at all on this Debate or next one
This electon was decided by th bailout on 20/9/08….on voters false pereption its all th Republicans fault 100%. and that perception ties into Republicans (read McCain) representing th past and voters wanting a change from Republicans & especialy Bush
Fact that Bush foolishly politcaly ‘owned’ th bailout by his initial announcments simply reinforced it was a Republican cause and th ‘its time’ underlying sentiment Result has not been a pro Obama voter outrage but an anti bush & now economicaly an anti ‘republican brand’ voter surge
I couldn’t tell you Dio – I wasn’t paying that much attention.
Adam
I doubt that anyone can truly be prepared for a job like POTUS, especially in the current climate (literally and figuratively). They have a tanking economy, two wars and climate change to deal with at a time when America’s economic and political influence is dramatically declining. No single person can fix those issues. There will have to be a whole team delivering. There is talk that Obama will keep on Gates as Defence Secretary, which I think would be a good move. The current chair of the New York Fed Reserve is favoured to be Treasury Sec. And Sebelius is highly regarded for Health.
McCain doesn’t look like much of a leader to me. He’s all over the place, angry, unfocussed and ill-disciplined. One thing that Obama and Rudd have in common is their great discipline and calm.
GG,
that is the Phoenix Business Journal. Business community in a safe Republican state. They are playing to their audience. Have to sell papers …. just about as predictable as Carville on air earlier this afternoon. Carville is after all a democratic person through and through. Difference between Carville and the PBJ is that Carville is working with reality as far as the polls are concerned. The PBJ is grasping at straws since they have nothing else …..
……
As I’m on holidays I went to the movies instead of watching the dabte. I saw Enemy Eye – surely one of the dumbest thrillers I’ve ever seen; and yet from reading over the recaps on various blogs I think my time was probably better spent.
Maybe Obama has reserves of talent we have not yet seen. But to believe so is entirely a matter of faith at the moment. He gives a nice speech, but in debates such as today’s he is no more than competent, and he has no relevant experience at all. FDR had been de facto Secretary of the Navy in wartime, had run for Vice President and had done two terms as Governor of New York, then the biggest state. Even so Walter Lippman said of him: “He is a pleasant man who, without any important qualifications for the office, would very much like to be President.” They used to set the bar much higher than they do now.
Inner Westie,
Have you overcome your hangups? Last time we crossed swords you were obsessed with sexual innuendos. I hope your meds are still working.
It is a truism that every hurricane starts with the first zephyr of a breesze. I just found it interesting that three polls suddenly show a break in the pattern of the last week or so.
We’ll see over the next few days whether it is a harbinger of the future or a couple of outliers.
Palin attacking Biden while he was at his MIL’s funeral …. (very bad form imho ……)
Sorry make that “Eagle Eye”
Have to say the bit about “That one” highlights how much Obama has got under McCain’s skin – much like JWH refusing to say Maxine McKew…
Surely you’re talking about *Eagle Eye. But you’re right, it’s rubbish.
Grog, lots of parallels to our election last year ……
“Have you overcome your hangups?” LOL
“I hope your meds are still working.” LOL
“Harbinger of the future.” LOL
You’re good for one thing GG! (And after a fairly dry debate too. Thank you.)
GG, if you want a zephyr of a breeze, have a look at these 2 Insider Advantage polls:
Obama +6 in CO
Obama +2 in NV
On those results, Obama’s got a clean shot to the White House:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/insideradvantage_co_nv_106.php
It’s also true that most zephyrs don’t end up being a hurricane.
(This is in no way an endrosement of Obama but) Whoever wins will face a very tough task. The US needs to undertake structural reform much like what Hawke and Keating did here in the 80s. They no longer have the financial muscle to carry huge farm subsidies that make no sense, bloated military spending, and an undertaxed wealthy class. The trouble is, that will mean doing things that are unpopular with the very middle america that is likely to elect Obama. I think that Obama will restore Americas credibility in the world, and his competent advisors should stabilise the economy. But IMO it will take ten years before they have really got the US back to where it was.
Adam, Abraham Lincoln had only served 2 years in the House of Reps and a few terms in the Illinois State Legislature before becoming President.
Adam
He’s clearly intelligent. He remains calm and balanced. He has organised a great campaign team, which may or may not translate to being able to organise a great Cabinet. He seems to play nicely with others. And he’s pretty tough. I think he’s off to a good start.
“One thing that Obama and Rudd have in common is their great discipline and calm.”
Howard had discipline & calm also , what a nonsensical comparison
Rudd has ‘left’ policys in his pocket , is policy focused , is outcomes based and is not a snake oil salesman sprouting pretty oratortial words without substance
Obama is th reverse of Rudd in everyone one of these respects Further Obama mantle is based solely on anti Bush which ONLY got him approx tie/marginal lead status , until th bailout being perceived as solely Republican changed th game for him
Here is a video of a feisty Sarah Palin taking on a heckler. Gutsy woman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrNAPY8V5iI
Is the US residential housing market open to non Americans?
Oz, yes it’s true that sometimes a great man comes to office with his greatness effectively concealed in a cloak of obscurity, as Lincoln did. But usually those who appear to be mediocre are in fact mediocre. It’s evident that the country has decided it wants to believe in Obama, and that will be a boost to him. Jimmy Carter came to office with the same surge of goodwill, but it didn’t last long and he was a one-term president.
We know McCain is boring, almost dead man walking. They should dump McCain put Palin on the POTUS ticket, at least it will be more exciting.
but a supposed exciting dude, Obama is getting more and more boring with each debate. What exactly are his messages? He should be +15, not +3 or +6.
They are both duds.
Yep it’s the economy’s fault that Obama is ahead. I guess McCain’s catch cry is “It’s the Stupid Economy”
What’s ironic about that is that her son is in Iraq supporting her right to drive a ridiculously large SUV and her party back home, in parallel, is restricting the right to protest.
Now it’s back to the economy. Dow Jones lost another 500 points before the debate. The UK banking system is in meltdown. Check out these drops in share prices. And Labor is going to bail them out $125bn.
HBOS dropped 42%, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) fell 39%, Barclays shed 9% and Lloyds TSB was down 13%.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7657422.stm
SurveyUSA North Carolina poll
10/5-6/08; 617 LV, 4%
Mode: IVR
McCain 49, Obama 46
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b8aada59-7fd2-4374-bbe2-df789901eca8
Well one thing for sure if McCain wins in Nov, the myth of the importance of the debates will be busted for good. (assuming debate 3 is same as the first 2)
Whether it’s Labor or Liberals who deserve the credit (or just good luck) but Australians really should be thankful for our banking system being so robust. That $6bn rescue we gave really was very modest compared with the turmoil in other countries.
Strange, more conservatives are willing to vote McCain than liberals are to vote Obama. Thought it would be the other way around with the Palin nomination. But Obama has the clear lead in moderates which is what counts.
“I think that Obama will restore Americas credibility in the world, and his competent advisors should stabilise the economy.”
A different Greek philosopher perspective This view leaves my argument of politcal perseption forces changing this electon outcome to perseptions of what will follow
I believe this is th Obamaphiles (non rusted on Obama) view of supporting obama , as opposed to th Obamabots (th rusted on Obama supporters thinking he is policy & character perfect)
I can understand why Obamaphiles believe this , especialy as a comparison to th policy & governance & jurisprudense corrupt dimwit Bush legacy What I queton of Obamaphiles is is 1/ what reality substance FA changes AND outcomes will actualy occur apart from that better standing in specific trouble spots , in world poverty , in doah , in Kyoto , and 2/ domesticaly given universal healthcare is trashed & given tax cuts up to 225,000 ar not significantly different under either candidate & given anti free trade sentiment protectionist Obama and given his cuts add 3.5 trillion to McCain’s 4.5 billion to 10 billion debt plus Fannie Mae’s off balance sheet 5.1 trillion and givenn Democrats since 2006 hav NOT tightened ‘regulation , and havapproved , mostrous budget deficits like Republicans in previous 6 years …where is th reality changes domesticaly as well seeing underlying philophy is needed to make needed masive structural changes
.
ps/ vs a centrist politcan , Big governemtn orientated , very pro regulation , pro universal healthcare , pro Kyoto , pro scaling all tax cuts (rich’s ones) back to 90’s levels , iron glove in FA seeing Billy got a 95% Palestinian deal til Ararfat lied to him
Oz, where are you getting those stats from? Might be the case that liberal voters have simply made up their mind already so there are less of them in the undecided block
Re 255,
Have you ever considered investing in a spell checker and a grammar checker?
In breaking news…..
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/10/07/1223145291213.html
255 – Who’s PS?
Hi all
in a meeting for the debate but after reading the thread -who needs tv when the bludgers paint a thousand words
1.did mccain really refuse to shake obamas hand (was that bit televised)
2.did the betther halfs shake hands?
3.did obama stay behind talking to the crowd at the last debate
maybe mccain has realised he is a dead duck and now the “real” mccain will come out.
Obama and Obamabots hav perfect spelling and grammar and syntax’s (whatever they ar) but there words ar pretty & full of bullsh.t …and no policy substance
Assume average aussie in comparison will take my fair dinkum policys any day
Ron, your faux syntactical entanglements don’t fool anyone. We all know you’re a professor of linguistics!
(At the University of Sourgrapes, Little Rock.)
Ron,
Finns was lamenting the familiar pattern. The Obamaphiles can’t beat your arguments so they resort to nit picking over trivia like spelling and grammar.
More power to your arm, amigo.
Gus @ 260,
1. Apparently, yes. I saw the tail end of it, but didn’t see the beginning of it. I was just walking back into the room.
2. don’t know on that one.
3. don’t know on that one either, but if today is any indication, would suspect yes he did.
Again who is ps???
I’m not having a go at you Ron – I do as many typos as anyone on this bog – I’m just trying to understand what you are arguing.
For you, Gus
…….
#256
SurveyUSA. It was NC though, so maybe it says more about “liberals” in NC than anything else.
Possum,
You noted on the debate thread earlier this afternoon that the men were flatlining compared to the women on most answers. This article might help explain why.
Interesting bit on another knee jerk reaction to Sept 11
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24465509-12377,00.html
No reports yet on whether renaming French Fries as Freedom Fries helped fight terrorism either.
SNIP: Unproductive comment deleted – The Management.
ps is post-script. Where did you guys go to school?
Ron is adding his argument as a counterpoint that Billary would have had more effect on the rest of the world than Obama due to her more centralist policies. There is a new phrase I’m seeing a bit now which is the “Militant Centre”, where thinkers from the centre are no longer the wishy-washy “moderates”. They are very strong in their policies that the Centre is the best for everyone, and that right and left have been failures. I think I’m right in saying that Ron, Adam and Federal Labor are from this school (and I’m not saying that in a judgemental way).
Gus @ 260,
Post debate slide show ….. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/post-debate-pda-slideshow_n_132848.html
juliem
tanks
a good friend who is into body language said that as far as she knew one of the us tv stations had an expert panel looking at the debate (with sound off) judging purely on body language.She went on to say that the palin/biden debate scored heaps for palin on overt signals but biden generated a calm all the way thru and showed a consistency whereas palin was spiking then btootoming out.
I (and I suspect others) am trying to match this with the Worms pattern to see if a discernible pattern emerges sublimely.
anyone with links to sites where the worm data may be obtained would be most appreciated.
Fair enough. Sorry William.
Only thing I know is that CNN rebroadcast a feed of the debate at 3pm locally so it is probably a good bet that if you scour CNN’s website that you may find a podcast of it ……. don’t know that the ABC might also have a podcast too but don’t know if they had the worm. the worm might have been exclusive to CNN?
Diogenes,
We’re the extreme centres. Don’t even like those too close to the outside of the white line in the middle of the road.
Straight white lines are excellent for mesmerising chooks, as Ron proves time after time.
Text of Bruce Springsteen’s comments at a Philedelphia rally over the last few days -
BTW
to that old chestnut-”the best candidate aint running”
I have to wholeheartedly agree
But I think Kevin has better things to do
271 I know “ps” means post-script but I’m just trying to understand why he used it with…oh fuhgeddaboudit.
Good sumary of the debate – New York Times, so no doubt it’ll be biased towards or against someone in the opinion of someone; but still…
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/08/us/politics/08debate.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
I seem to recall Howard used the debate last year to announce something (have completely forgot what though) and it was totally forgotten afterwards. The parallels with last Nov are just getting stronger and stronger.
GG
I think it’s great that the Centre has some passion at last. Instead of all this lurching between the shouting and ranting of the Right, and the tut-tutting and finger-pointing of the Left, I’d like to see a more aggressive Centre. “Moderate” has become almost a put-down for someone with a lack of strong opinions. As we’ve seen, the Centre can have just as strong opinions as the Left or Right.
Except Obama had already raised the idea many times previously…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/07/in-debate-mccain-touted-m_n_132828.html
Question way from left field – why are Republican states on most maps red, and Dems are blue? Doesn’t quite gel with the usual sense of red = left wing.
Anyone know?
Grog, do I gather that you were not really under the misapprehension that Ron was using “PS” as somebody’s initials, and that you were actually just being a pain in the arse?
Grog and Gus,
I lived through the pain of Florida 2000. You guys all saw that from afar. I was part of it and oh geez did that hurt. That open wound didn’t get any better with Tampa 2001. Having my feet in the camps of two countries, I suffered equally from both heartaches. We had arguements with my husband’s parents across the Pacific from the USA about the Tampa situation. JH had so craftily played the bow strings on that one that he sucked in die hard Labour voters like my in-laws. Days/weeks/months/years passed and I despaired of ever getting some sunshine back into the leadership of either country. Thank God for Kevin and now Barack. I know that eventually the political cycle will come back the other way (it always does) but I could never have envisioned the USA going this far away from the man who held the office the last 8 years. I thought I was happy in 1992 when Clinton put out Bush Snr.
, I had no idea LOL ………
282,
Grog, don’t know why but the USA has always done the colours that way …..
No William I was thinking Ron was using it as being someone’s initials – it didn’t make sense to me in the context of [ps/ vs a centrist politcan]
why “post-script” versus a centrist politician??
But look my fault for bringing it up. I withdraw all reference to it. Lashings of apologies.
So long as the misunderstanding was genuine, I don’t have a problem with it.
Actually, scrub that – you were being a pain in the arse, but apology accepted.
Grog
The US has only been consistent in it’s colour-coding since 2000. Here’s an article on it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states
What ever happens to THE NEW POLITICS of Mr. Barack Obama?
I think it actually used to be the other way around… Democrats red & Republicans blue. There was no particular reason behind it, and they only switched to Democrats blue & Republicans red a few elections ago
289 cheers diogenes – as usual one should always consult the wik first.
So we can blame Tim Russert RIP for it all.
Harsh but fair
That’s me.
Over two US threads I’ve key padded with maybe over 100 Obamabots including marsupials of many varieties & some butterflys as well , and inclusive of some N E elitist liberals progresives’ as well as politcaly corect intelegentsia brigade of theoreticals sound lovely theoreticals
…and there collective disdain is for ‘core left’ pratical policys well almost substance policys at all reely and as well as didain for th required principals & personnell attrtibutes that should be sought ar not reely Labor , but instead a daisy flowered feel good progressive Agenda that is reely meaningless to most familys
….and ironicly Obama has dustbined most of them as well ! .. without cause for Obamabot’s comcern either….its why there arguments can so easily be demalished by a 22nd century cultural lingo-ist
Obama seems to hav created a new politcal spectrum ..a multi coloured “Obama spectrum” of zig zaged of oratory left , centre & right one liners …and thats all you get …5 seconds of sushine till th next platitude one liner At least a McGovern stood for something
Unforunately a lesser nunber of Obamaphiles do see this Obamarotic fantasyland for its virtual relity , and see insteod an overall broader picture benefit for there particula views which whilst I can understand as said per #255 I’m querying in particular areas where th broad will convert to even macro in both FA & domestic , let alones in micros Guess thats also where Obama’s Labor supporters ar also re non rusted on but basicaly left Democrat vs right McCain without th Obamabots religous felines fervours
And GG , those pedestrian zebra crossings ar always I notice in only Collingwood colours of “black & white” only , and all footy people hav to cross them except th J walkers
and Grog , Al Gore was who i had in mind….not of what we hav as that can not be changed reality wise…but what is structurally needed in FA & economicaly and in core left policys incl regulations universal healthcare Kyoto and balanced budgets
Ron your post is essentially a bunch of fluff with silly made up words (Obamarotic?) so I’m not sure why I’m replying at all.
I’ll only say that your actual pretence is quite off the mark. Obama, by both his policies and rhetoric cannot be considered left-wing by any margin and the attack by “core” left-wingers on Obama comes not as left vs. Obama left but as a regular left vs. right attack. There’s nothing unique or special about it.
Actually I just read your second to last paragraph which makes absolutely no sense in English and am regretting taking the time to right this at all.
Compare:
“But in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate – we cannot consecrate – we cannot hallow – this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember, what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here.”
… with …
“I’m querying in particular areas where th broad will convert to even macro in both FA & domestic , let alones in micros Guess thats also where Obama’s Labor supporters ar also re non rusted on but basicaly left Democrat vs right McCain without th Obamabots religous felines fervours”
When it comes to their capacity to stir up sentiment and convert you to a cause, there really is only a cigarette paper between them …
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
We hv been thru this before. yes, we hv been thru this before.
Amigo Ronnie, what have you done in your past life to have this kind of re-incarnation again and again?
SNIP: Reponse to deleted comment deleted – The Management.
Gus,
If you haven’t found footage somewhere else, this from RCP might do …
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/10/the_second_presidential_debate.html
295 ron – cheers.
I thought you were meaning someone – just didn’t quite get who.
Yep Al Gore would have been my candidate (after Hillary, but before Obama)
Speaking of Gore …..
Ronster
Lots of us Obamabots (or Obamaphiles, I’m not sure which I am) would not describe ourselves as Labor supporters so we don’t have to measure him against “Labor values”. I still think you are making a mountain out of a molehill focussing on the very slim differences between Obama, Gore, Hillary or Edwards.
Ron
What the hell does this mean? Don’t get me wrong, most of the rest of that post is (deliberately?) incomprehensible but this bit is exceptional.
I wouldn’t bother. It’s easier to ignore him.
Possum
Nate Silver is on the Colbert Report tonight. More evidence that the conspiracy of the liberal elites are perverting the course of democracy.
heh! Looking forward to it Dio
Nate Silver interview was pretty good
Re colour coding of states in the US. This was done by the TV networks about ten years ago. Before that there was no consistent usage. They wanted nice contrasting primary colours for their big maps. Although blue is the traditional colour of conservatives (it’s the official colour of the UK Tories) and red the colour of the left, they made the Repubs red and the Dems blue so they wouldn’t be accused of suggesting the Dems were communists. The colours were convenient so now everyone uses them.
Nate Silver turns out to be a baseball statistician and OMG he’s a nerd! Who would have thought!!
He says in baseball terms that we’re at the bottom of the ninth, Obama is up by two runs, Palin has been picked off at first base and McCain is up to bat.
And Ron, he says he’s totally unbiased.
His interview starts at 15:20
http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=187363
this from a very frank assesment.
“The differences between the two was never so obvious before, as Obama stayed steady and talked about 21st century solutions and McCain talked about Teddy Roosevelt as his hero as if he had also been a contemporary.
Has anybody told those two that USA is broke. McCain wants to spend $300B to buy your house and Obama wants to spend $????? to give you free healthcare as a right. They fiddly and fiddle while USA is burning. It’s surreal.
btw: i am kinda happy that the financial crisis is happening. it can only be good that everyone and everything is reminded that you cannot live by credit and debts. you can only do that for so long and it will catchup with you.
I decided some ten years ago to pay off all my debts and have never been happier.
McCain would need to spend closer to $2 trillion to buy all the bad mortgages in the U.S. It would make last week’s bailout look like chump change.
Obama believes in all of these things.
So the fact that McCain knows some American history, and has actually lived through quite a lot of it, now counts against him, while the fact that Obama arrived the day before yesterday, and knows nothing except what he read at Harvard Law School or picked up at Bill Ayers’s dinner parties, counts in his favour. Who are Obama’s heroes? The Spice Girls? We’ve no idea.
It looks as if the poor republicans are suffering the same problems as the local Liberals, a once grand party has been taken over by right wing nutters.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/magazine/05Davis-t.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=magazine&pagewanted=all
Adam, I understand where you are coming from, and I thought the age factor with John Howard was part of the reason he lost.
I think you can draw a comparison and say that as most Australian electors looked at John Howard as being in the past, maybe that same mentality is in play in America.?
LOL!
Do you honestly think someone could go to Harvard, and end up teaching Public Policy there without knowing anything about American history? Again you’re peddling a Fox News caricature of Obama.
I teach public policy, and I know nothing about American history.
Do you teach public policy in America?
Adam
McCain is a silly old fool, America just tried the fool option and it didn’t work out. Internationally the Republican party are the remaining dregs of the “coalition of the willing”. Democracy works.
To my mind the most startling thing about the debate was Obama coming out and stating that the USA attacked a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 and it’s costing us a packet, not only that, the worms loved it. Sanity seems to be returning.
Should we care? Do you vote based on who your preferred candidates heroes are?
No. You vote for who ever is under the Labor Party banner at the time – to expect others to behave differently is a bit of a stretchy call dont you think?
I know nothing about Australian history either.
US$10 billion a month.
I think they’re going to need that cash at home pretty soon.
Not even the history of Australian public policy?
Nor indeed very much about public policy.*
* Just in case any students or university administrators are reading: this is a joke.
Oh it’s very important, whoever becomes President automatically has a chair in history at Perdue University.
Nice thing about Australia, staaaaaaaaaable political system.
further
“the aggression exhibited by mccain was only offset by an almost infantile pleading smile,whereas obama’s tone only raised once or twice and no outwardly aggressive body language was observed”
WB,
Are you channeling Sergeant Schultz?
I find that the more I study things the less over all I feel I am certain I know about it.
Everything becomes grey.
Adam
Here’s a fascinating site comparing Obama and McCain. It looks a bit dodgy but I couldn’t find any faults after looking at it for a while. It’s got some nice trivia as well as issues and biography.
It says McCain’s political hero is Ted Roosevelt.
Obama’s heroes are MLK Jr, Mahatma Gandhi and Cesar Chavez (looked him up and he was a Mexican farmer cum community organiser)
GG
McCain’s favourite author is Hemingway (what a surprise) and the last book he read was A Farewell to Arms.
http://www.obama-mccain.info/index-obama-mccain.php
Of course I vote for party candidates, but that’s because we have a parliamentary system. If I were voting for an executive president I’d like to know quite a lot more about the candidates than I know (or anyone knows) about Obama. I would certainly expect them to know something of the history of the country they were aspiring to run. I know what McCain knows because I’ve heard him talk about it. All I’ve heard from Obama is pap.
I thought only former Presidents could be heroes?
Go read his book.
That’s all you want to hear.
The stages of leaning:
You know nothing
You think you know something.
You know you know nothing.
Your an expert.
Or perhaps the modern version
You know nothing.
You think you know something.
You see there are unknowns.
You think there are unknown unknowns.
Your Donald Rumsfeld.
I think this article rings true. McCain is acting grumpy because he is running a personal attack campaign that he doesn’t actually believe in:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14364.html
325
{US$10 billion a month.
I think they’re going to need that cash at home pretty soon}
Spot on ShowsOn. It’s exactly what Obama said.
Sure Rumsfeld was a screw up, but that infamous speech was just something a first year philosophy student studying epistemology would probably learn.
I always thought scholars were people who “learn more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.”
Hopefully they send some of it to Afghanistan. After all, isn’t that primarily where 9/11 was planned, and the hijackers trained? I read the official report ages ago, but I can’t remember.
Come on Adam, you know better than the next bloke that while the US may well vote for an individual as President, they’re actually voting for a party apparatus in the executive.
Adam went:
And on the key measure of this election – the economy – the worst of the Democrats that would be realistically placed in positions of economic influence in any Democrat administration at the moment are better than the best that the current Republican party has to offer.
And on other key issues like foreign affairs and defence, do you really think that an Obama Cabinet would ever be filled with Age of Aquarius liberal egg heads in the portfolios where the rubber of US power hits the road?
Obama’s got terrible taste in books, music (apart from Bach’s cello suites), TV and movies. I’m starting to reconsider my position.
Why of course, it will be Sean Penn as Secretary of Peace, with Michael More as Secretary of We-are-an-enemy-State, and Percy Fitzwallace resuming his role as the Joint Chief of Staff that he started in series 1 of The West Wing.
and finally
“in over 2/3’s of the responses tracked from the panel not once did obama record a negative figure whereas mccain consistently was in the mid range negative,only breaching positive on 2 occassions”
matching the worm(s) to responses will hopefully resolve whether we are using our heart or our brain
ShowsOn
Perhaps scholars and engineers are different, it’s been my experience that study of a topic leads the realization that humanity knows jack shit. Nature is non linear and we have close to zip tools to model it. We just do the best we can with the little we know, bridges tend to stay up and economies only fail every now and again.
It’s going to be another one of these nights eh!
I love all the films and music he likes, excluding the classical music which I haven’t heard. Miles Davis is one of my favourite musicians.
McCain’s favourite film is Viva Zapata, which is a brilliant film with Marlon Brando, directed by Kazan. It is a bout a Mexican terrorist, oh, I mean freedom fighter. Well worth a watch.
The wider the radius of the light of knowledge, the greater we realise is the diameter of the darkness of ignorance. (Someone said something like that but a whole lot better. It’s awfully true.)
Diogenes, bugger Obama’s taste in books. etc,, Ditto Rudd’s tastes in same. The question has to be whether they have any clues, at all, about how to weather what is rapidly becoming something much worse than the Great Depression. I personally think they don’t and couldn’t, because I think no one has got much of a clue, or alternatively, or opportunistically, people are posistioning themselves to make a buck out of this fiasco,
This happens when I try to write serious things, and on Pollbludger at the same time.
Or when I read Ron’s posts.
I guess I should’ve actually written the actor’s name – John Amos.
And I wish I wrote Michael Moore’s name properly; that’s all the respect he deserves.
Fair go, I reckon we know a lot, as in, we now have a rough idea about how little we know, whereas 2000 years ago we thought we knew everything.
Zogby tracking poll: Obama 47, McCain 45.
US Fed Reserve just dropped rates by 50bp
That’s positioning of course.
Never underestimate the Americans. Their capacity for stupidity is only exceeded by their genius. Look what FDR did? And on a micro level, look what Clinton did?
Obama has the right start in mind, tax the top 5% so you can give a tax cut to those people in the “real economy”.
(Incidentally, I have heard the term “real economy” more times in the last month from economists and Peter Costello than in the rest of my life. Does this mean we have an “unreal economy”, and if so, why do we need it?)
ECB has also cut by 50bp
Harry Snapper Organs
When unemployment in the US is above 25% and unemployment in Australia is over 30% we have something worse than the Great Depression. This is nothing, and personally I don’t think it will be, no one is trying to maintain a gold standard.
Fortunately Nate at 538 has taught us that Zogby is consistently one of the worst performing pollsters. Their last poll had Obama up by only 3% so they are outliers.
McCain likes ABBA so I’m back on the Good Ship Obama.
The way things are going the unreal economy is going to be owned by governments, there is going to be lot of banks to privatize after this fiasco is over and the free market comes back into fashion.
Some bloke on the Wall Street Journal got it right – if we were headed for a depression politicians wouldn’t have to tell us we were headed for a depression – we would already be able to see it.
Didn’t Zogby consistently predict that Kerry would win?
He’s probably listening to S.O.S. over and over (which IMO is a good song).
So the unreal economy is the part that is hardly regulated at all?
Didn’t Bob Brown have some crazy idea that all speculative trades should be taxed at 1%, and all that money used to fund renewable energy?
Doesn’t seem so stupid now.
Hear, hear.
We need the “unreal economy” because it is it, and it alone that acts as the the bridge between those with capital and those places in the real economy that need some of that capital to expand and develop (or start) their operations.
It might sound like a bit of a cliche, but it’s a true cliche none the less.
The truth of the matter is we can produce more than we can pay for, we need something to suck up the excess production, war is good, just blow it up, asset bubble to fund debt consumption works. Bill Clinton is suggesting Green energy is the next place to go, the next bubble, Bob Brown will be happy.
Isn’t that called the Tobin tax?
So it is kind of where the ultimate value of businesses get valued, which reflected in share prices?
But the problem was created when people lost confidence in the system, and couldn’t trust each other to be valuing the assets accurately? Is that it?
I wish they could just go back to pretending everything was worth varying degrees of heaps. I was more comfortable and relaxed then.
Shows On, certainly you have a point in relation to the U.S., in relation to the stupidity vs, genius stuff. However, as far as I understand it, we’ve got a perfect storm of the failure of the free and untramelled market system, globalisation and coming up, just to make things even more difficult, trying to deal with climate change in this environment. I’ve no evidence for this, but have a deep and abiding suspicion about what’s really going on beyond the immediate. I could be a canary down a mine, or just delusional.
Um, what about donation? Let the U.S. government buy it and send it to third world countries. Or are you saying it is all tied up in housing because so many people are being kicked out of their homes?
Sorry, I’m an economic simpleton.
The whole thing might just be a colossal waste of time & money if this poster knows something that we don’t.
http://www.news.com.au/comments/0,23600,24464832-401,00.html
7 central banks dropped their rates together
I know what is going to happen, the political right will say “this is no time for us to worry about climate change”, while the left will say “let’s remake the world economy so it takes account of carbon, when we hit the boom time again, the market will have carbon pollution accounted for.”
This is another reason why I hope Obama wins.
Shows On, and Malcolm Rainmaker will say all good things emanate from him and his actions.
Follow the Aussie.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7658958.stm
You got to admit there are some wanky things in finance. For example this “100 basis points” rubbish. What is wrong with saying 1 per cent?
Björk is reported to have more money now than the Government of Iceland. She is deciding whether to buy Iceland and makes herself the Queen of Iceland.
Japan is also reported to have cut her interest by 1% to follow the Aussie. So the official cash rate is -0.5%. yes, you have to pay the bank interest to deposit your money in the bank.
Because if you say an increase of 1%, it could accidentally mean +1% or 1% of the original value. Basis points just removes the ambiguity.
e.g. 5% ‘+ 1%’ = 6% or 5% ‘+ 1%’ = 5.05%
Scorpio
that 2012 reference is to planet X I think
BTW have you used google sky, as planetx’s quadrant is still blanked out (at least on my screen) so maybe this fuelling the “end is nigh” mentality
Millenialist nutcase. I’m sure Paul Nash could give the full doomsday scenario of the endtimes. Plenty of such believers will be voting in November.
ShowsOn
The kicking out of house and home is just the sad part that happens at the end of the party, the asset bubble was the party, and lets be honest most of us enjoyed it. The dot com bubble was fun, the housing bubble was fun, the way to get the wind wind and solar farms built is to have another party. Bob Brown is just too dam serious.
But they pay you to take out loans?
Oh well that makes wanktastic sense then.
It’s his middle name I tells ya.
But of course there is a get out clause, I strongly doubt the world will be “as we know it” in 2012 as it is now. The world isn’t the same now as it was when Bush was re-elected.
Night, all. That Bjork could, and would want to save her home land, well, short of making herself head honcho, is sweet. S’pose if you can buy an entire country, you can do pretty much anything you want to with it. Hmmm. where has this cropped up before?
So what would be the easiest way to do that? Get the U.S. to do a Japan and make their interest rate negative?
Or the Zimbabwe option – print more money, then deal with inflation later.
This bloke might have the answer!
Scorpio,
this is getting into “xfiles” territory:
Alfred Lambremont Webre is among these scholars who now suggest that the Canadian federal elections have somehow been orchestrated in relation to some Extraterrestrial agenda, associated with the October 14th date.
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2008/09/29/02631.html
http://exopolitics.blogs.com/
The Ice is melting fast:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7658417.stm
ShowsOn
“Or the Zimbabwe option – print more money, then deal with inflation later.”
And where do you think the 100’s of billions being used to re-inflate is coming from. The issue is taking it back out again when capitalists get over themselves. How do you do that, sell the banks your accumulated when you were printing because the capitalist were hording the stuff.
From that Zogby poll:
By those numbers their party weightings seem a bit off to have Obama only leading by 2. There are 5% more registered Democrats than Republicans in the US…
What concerns me is this bloke is an Aussie. The same type that continues to think that Howard was a g#d. These people vote!!!!!!
But they had to stop that. They ran out of paper.
Well with most of the G7 following Australia’s lead, will Turnbull’s cheersquad say that they are all run by idiots too, who left their action too late? Or just maybe Australia’s financial managers are the first in the world to take sensible action to calm markets down? But how could that be? After all, with the Liberals no longer in charge, we can’t be being competently managed economically. Or can we? Is it just possible that Glen Stevens and Dr Henry are actually good economists, and left free of self-serving political interference they can make sensible policy on their own?
Can’t wait to hear how Turnbull describes this one.
I thought it was because a German company refused to print more because Mugabe was primarily spending it on weapons during the election ‘campaign’?
Can anyone explain what Obama’s economic philosophy is and how does he propose to prevent th crisis worsening
Not having seen Debate presume a perospective POTUS in Obama had some answers seeing expect McCain couldn’t sprout unregulated free market is th answer
(or is there a disconnect between my view of confidence , liquidity , equity , toxic assets & guaranteeing peoples savings accounts
Obama keeps going up on Intrade… now at 71.9 to 27.8
He has a left wing progressive economic philosophy based around making everyone – including millionaires and businesses – pay a fair share of tax. This involves taxing rich people more to fund tax cuts for middle and lower class workers.
Can you figure out on the graph the highest it has been?
Is 71.9 it?
Looks like it
375
[yes, you have to pay the bank interest to deposit your money in the bank}.
Finns, is that for real?
Why did Leigh Sayles tousle her hair?
DO NOT WANT!
Obama’s economic advisor is Austin Goolsbee, a professor at Chicago Univesity School of Economics (i.e. eminent). He is not right wing, but no socialist either. I would describe him as centrist-pragmatic. See this article on him:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/10/obamas_curious_economic_advise.html
Certainly he is far less ideologically driven than Phil Gram, which gives Obama a clear edge on this score, even apart from the blame the republicans inevitably wear on this issue. McCain should have chosen a much less politicised advisor than Gram with fewer links to Bush’s policies. Gram makes it impossible for McCain to escape the taint of Bush.
“This involves taxing rich people more to fund tax cuts for middle and lower class workers.”
Nonsense , there is a net cost to Budget of 3.3 trillion , thats trillion…so much for that economic expertise
does anyon know what Economist’s economic model he basicaly relies on AND what he ACTUALY proposed in Debate to solve th financial crisis
Essentially. The negative interest rate is from their central bank, probably on a 90-day bill, so you buy one for $X and get back $X less interest after 90 days.
That means the top 5% of businesses and income earners are paying more tax, which is exactly what they should be doing.
That’s progressive, that’s left wing. No elitism there Ron, just getting people to pay their fair share.
Left wing social liberalism.
Wait a minute – McCain’s fav films are Viva Zapata AND Weekend at Bernies???
That’s like saying your favourite literature is the Communist Manifesto and MAD Magazine.
His fav TV show is 24? I doubt it – not sure if he would enjoy Jack Bauer’s penchant for going the torture route…
Ron
You can check out his policies on his website. Overall though, neither Obama or any other politiican would be stupid enough to commit themselves to an answer to that question now without first forming government and talking to treasury and Fed reserve officials first. I have my own opinion – the Swedish solution is the answer; don’t just given them money, rather buy equity, so the taxpayer gets a return when the markets eventually recover.
Maybe all his answers were focus grouped.
The Republican National Committee has started running Republican ads (not strictly McCain campaign ads) in Maine, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/RNC_IE_expanding_buy_to_Maine_NC_and_FL.html
Watched the replay on CNN. Pretty boring debate and they said nothing new.
McCain’s running out of money
Yeah, seemed that way. The whole ‘town hall’ format thing was a bit lame too. I thought Tony Jones was going to pop up any second.
Yes ShowsOn they’re running up the white flag. Amazing they have been caught out so badly. At the risk of saying I told you so I said a year ago that the US was in/going into recession and economics would be the key issue in this election and McCain is poorly equipped to deal with it. Why they then had to pick Phil Gram as his economics advisor to complete the rout with a clear link to Bush’s policy I will never understand.
Dario @ 401
I assume the poster was actually asking whether it was true Japan now has a negative interest rate. The answer to that would be no. From what I’ve read Japan left their rates at 0.5% and made a statement about the global financial situation.
I believe ‘Finns’ was joking earlier.
Palin’s pick was dumb as well.
To me it symbolises everything wrong with McCain’s campaign – he got rolled on his own V.P. candidate! He wanted Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman, but they are both pro choice on abortion.
Yes I did know but kept noticing posters making wrong remarks as if obama was traditional ‘left’ type Keynes or variant , did not hav that link so thanks , I realized you would know ! , I hav other info on him and also Jason Furman heading his economic team
Austan Goolsbee made a public comment in 2007 praising sub primes actualy which was silly but consistent with his beliefs , whereas a firm Governemnt regalatory believer is whats been and still is needed (it goes without saying th Republican unregulated free market ideals that traditional ‘left’ peole hav always opposed is worse than goolsbee)
I’d peronaly first of all favor guaranteeing savings deposts & then not taking responsibility for th toxic debts but insert liquidity & equity but with Board ‘control’ directly or indirectly
when you hav a net 3.3 trillion charge to budget tthen higher income tax’s clearly ar not making a contribution at all to funding lower taxes for lower incomes so suggesting rich tax increases ar funding lower incomes is untrue , all that would hav oherwise occured is a higher trillion figure against budget
Ah, ok
Yes either of them would have been better able to balance McCain’s candidacy. I understand Ridge was a very bright student who got into Harvard on scholarship and has held major business jobs. If McCain could have taken the lead on foreign policy issues and left the economics to Ridge or Leiberman he would have been so much stronger.
I didn’t realise about the pro-choice issue. Ironic that the religeous fundamentalist vote they have chased so determindly in recent years has brought them undone, by forcing them too far to the right to be electable to the majority. I haven’t much sympathy for them of course.
Paul Krugman did note recently that rates on three-month US Treasury bills briefly went into negative a month ago, if that in any way relates to what we’re discussing.
No 409
I don’t mind the town hall setting, but the rules were so ridiculous that it was near impossible for the candidates to engage with each other. Heck, an episode of Q&A is much livelier.
Going back a few years, I have this recollection that Japan had a negative inflation rate, and the government had to persuade businesses to put their prices up. Is this true?
Um, well he is. Keynes’ idea – as I understand it – was that Governments should cut spending when the economy is strong, and increase spending as the economy slows, even if that means going into a budget deficit. The U.S. tried that at the start of the year, but it didn’t work. Their growth rate is still something like half a percent, and now is probably negative.
This isn’t very left wing Ron, this comment is very economically right wing. You seem to think if everyone pays less tax (including millionaires) then the economy will magically start growing again.
Why shouldn’t millionaires pay more tax when there are huge budget deficits? If anyone is to make up the deficit it should be rich people who get too many tax breaks from Bush’s policies as it is. Even a multiple billionaire Warren Buffet has said this, since he earns money from share dividends, under Bush’s policies he pays less tax than his secretary. That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, that’s the pointlessness of right wing economy theories.
Now that some of us are on daylight saving, does anyone know round about what time Rasmussen releases their daily tracking poll?
Correction: Bush economic theories.
Clearly the rise of big government and massive debt are not conservative economic principles.
ShowsOn, in about 90 minutes by my reckoning: maybe a little sooner.
I think its in 10 minutes actually… at 9.30am NY time
Why not? They are the same policies as Ronald Reagan. The U.S. federal government got BIGGER during Reagan’s presidency, even though he said it was “the problem”. Furthermore, he doubled the budget deficit.
This is what the Republican’s do. Their theory seems to be that you put the budget into so much debt that Democratic administrations have to come in and cut spending, thus limiting their chance to implement universal health care.
Of course, the Democrats produce higher economic growth than Republicans for the very reason that they try to curb government spending, while cutting taxes for low income earners.
Rasmussen
Obama 51 (down 1)
McCain 45 (up 1)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
“Ron , this comment is very economically right wing”
Why is it you misrepresent what a poster says I simply corrected your false assertion that th rich tax increases ar funding tax cuts for lower income earners They ar not at all you’ve not only misrepresented but misunderstood & not sure whther deliberate or otherwise
Th tax cuts for low income earners ar coming via a 3.3 trillion charge against budget (probably from th Chinese) US is broke & in debt Had th rich tax increaes not occured then there would hav been a charge of over 4 trillion against budget (again probably from Chinese) There is no relationship ecept Obama’s ireeponsible increase in debt is abourt a trillion less than th economic vandal McCain
Thats an explanation of th actual costs I made of what IS proposed , it is not what I would propose & your assumption of what I would is wrong Had you asked me I would hav said as a ‘left’ pwerson to leave th Law not expire & leave those tax increases for rich stand both on equity & need for reducing th deficit grounds
I would hav also scrapped Obama & McCains foolish tax cuts for earners 112,000 to 227,000 I condemn them both , why don’t anyone else seeing they get a TYWICE as much money back per week in cuts under Obama & mCain than poor/working familys earning uner $112,000
Also under Obama , if earn from 227,000 to 600,00 there is NO tax rise (or cut) , so they ar laughuing so neither Obama or McCain qa serios with this rich group either
Th countrys broke and they want to increase there debt & reward those over 112,000 per year , as a ‘left’ person I say no , so your comments were incorrct
Great analysis of the ‘unreal economy’ by David Brooks:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/opinion/07brooks.html?ref=opinion
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues
Battleground national tracking poll
Obama 49 (down 1)
McCain 45 (up 2)
http://www.tarrance.com/results.cfm
The polls narrow and Intrade widens to 73/26
Gallup now has Obama ahead 52-41.
Re 324,
I’ll take your Zogby, William, and raise you a Gallup.com
Barack Obama holds an 11-point lead over John McCain in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report, 52% to 41%. This is the Obama’s highest level of support to date, and also represents his largest lead of the campaign.
Read more at GALLUP.com.
Re 431, I clearly read and put in my replies in the Canberra morning as I see them without reading the whole blog first ……
Diogenes @358,
If ABBA is something that McCain likes, perhaps he ought to make The Winner Takes It All his theme song
…….
Re polls in general,
I got a nastygram in email from my US Republican sister who lives in Missouri but what was worth bringing up in this forum was that she got polled about 10 days ago and when the pollster asked her if she had made up her mind (yes) and who she was going to vote for (McCain), they then said, “thanks, we don’t need your opinion any more” and hung up. Quite clearly soliciting opinions only for one side in that call …….
I wasn’t joking. I had to sleep on it myself. In theory is real. In practice? who knows.
Look at your own super returns, it has been negative for awhile now. So, the “interest rate” of your super returns has already been negative. that is real!!!!
Which ever geniuses that send our dollar down, down and down (to 0.67 this morning), we should get down our knees and thank them. This will save us and our economy. As the commodity prices went down, lower dollar will:
1. Boost export incomes being more competitive
2. Reduce import. No more plasma and LCD Tvs
3. More tourists coming in and less going out.
Just a reminder where our dollar was during the last 2 crisis:
27/8/1998 – Asian Financial Crisis – 0.55
24/9/2001 – After 911 – 0.48
Japan is in real trouble. the Yen has appreciated some 20%. Japan is an export country and its domestic economy has been in doldrums for the last 15 years.
Re 437,
I am doing that
…… We cashed out the remainder of our US accounts this past week (401k’s [US equiv. of super funds] and mutual funds) and are awaiting the paper checks in the mail. The good thing is that the value we cash them in at on this end is dependant on what the exchange rate is the day we go to the bank here and we’ve already made about $10,000 Aussie just with the changes between when we cashed the funds and when I type this AND the checks aren’t here yet for probably another week 
……
oh dear ….. the cracks are beginning to show ….
Diogenes et. al.
{from the Debate thread on Wednesday afternoon}
This article today details the phrases he repeated and goes into it in much more depth
…..
“The World According To Sarah Palin”
http://i466.photobucket.com/albums/rr28/kzoodem/WorldAccordingtoPalin.jpg
Good Riddance to GB
……
Obama has now locked up all of the Kerry states now.
He has also locked up Iowa, as well as leading by decent margins in NM, CO, VA and OH (all greater than 4% on RCP averages).
McCain can more or less forget about flipping blue states and focus solely on defending reds. He still (amazingly) has a chance – but he has to run the table in toss-up states with absolutely no margin for error. Possible, but increasingly unlikely…
“That one” has turned into an internet meme:
http://www.thatone08.com/
We are all prisoners of war now!
9 hours later, now it is now 76 to 23
ShowsOn @ 445,
Do you hear or see the Fat Lady yet?
……..
Even if Obama has 300 E.C. votes locked away on election night I’ll still be nervous.
Have you seen The War Room?
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0108515/
I asked you yesterday, can’t recall seeing your answer.
Sorry ShowsOn, school holidays in Canberra. When I’m not here catching up on news/PB, I’m out with the kids. Will get to answer this after lunch. Cheers
I think the only thing that can save McCain now is voter fraud
Amigo FINNS
that -0.5% may be right in theory Instead of posting it here , you should hav put it on an Obama internet ‘talking points’ site or with Obama slippery rag DailyKos or Huff womens …then Obamabots around th world who treat them sites as there religous bible of fact , would hav spread it in to more millions
We hav Ayres just hosting coffee for Obama , we hav Obama increasing rich peoples taxs to fund low incom tax cuts , …all nonsense , actualy alot of th nonsence posted here by Obamabots as fact is reely Obama “talking points” sites disinformation
These descendents of th Flower People hav gone from th Age of Aquarius to th internet Age of disinformation….then further of course if anything adverse gets onto Internet about Obama you gotta get it very early on same day , before th Obama hordes optimisers/hackers “disappear” it on you with blogs using similar words etc
and substitute pro Obama “news”
Wait till Reublicans perfect this in 4 years , th Internet for politcs will be garbage , then obamabots will be hypocriticaly screaming of abuse of technology , maybe oz Liberal Party will use these tricks , So -0.5% interest with inflation & MOE facors and internet language translations could be a fact
interesting turn of events
“A Tennessee man has been indicted for hacking into US Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s personal e-mail account, the Justice Department said.
David Kernell, 20, of Knoxville, turned himself in and will appear before a US judge on Wednesday, the Justice Department said.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/09/2386122.htm?section=justin
He hacks in to the account, then brags about it on the net and posts screen captures that include the anonomiser IP address he used. Complete dumbass.
ShowsOn @ 447,
No, I hadn’t seen that nor was I aware of it. Funny too as I only left the US in 2004 and that was well and truely 12 years after this election. I’m gathering you enjoyed it though?
A bunch of comments have just disappeared. You know who you are. I’m not saying the comment I’m defending is a masterpiece, but those who claim not to understand it can’t be trying very hard.
Oh dear. People in glass houses…
http://www.rhrealitycheck.org/blog/2008/10/08/mccain-palling-around-with-militant-antiabortion-activists
Amigo Ronnie, is this what Bilbo trying to say?
Juliem
Slightly off topic, but can you tell me if the US allows negative gearing for residential property.
I’m trying to understand the major differences between what drives the property market over there and what drives it here.
AFAIK most other countries don’t allow it the way we do. I think in the US you can only claim investment losses against income from other investments, not salaried income.
Reported in the Melbourne Age today – A survey conducted by the American Psychological Association has found that 80% of Amercans say that the economy is a major source of stress. Nearly half say they are worried about providing for their families’ basic needs.
That level of fear and worry is certainly not going to abate in the next four weeks and I doubt there is any diversionary tactic the Repub dirt machine can now divise that will divert the public’s attention away from the economic woes.
459
Thanks for that Dario
In the US, however, you aren’t totally liable for a mortgage debt.
If you can’t pay off your mortgage, you can just abandon it or give the keys back to the bank and walk away – the bank has no other recourse option available to it against you.
That system is fine when house prices are rising, as the bank will usually be able to recoup the debt by selling the house. However, if house prices are falling, then the bank will not be able to cover the value of the debt and thus loses money.
That’s one of the scarier things about the US mortgage market. You don’t even have to file for bankrupcy to wash your hands of that debt!
Rasmussen says Obama 54, McCain 44 in Wisconsin.
Cindy McCain might need to be careful. An ex-drug addict who stole narcotics from an organisation she set up to supply drugs to the underprivileged is probably not a great person to make any comments about character.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/08/cindy-mccain-unleashedbrf_n_133089.html
Albrecht and others make a good point about US mortgage debt, but the problem is a lot deeper than that. The CRA act has been around since 1977 with few problems till the past few years. It was really the explosion in cheap credit and use of CDOs and CDSs since about 2001/02 that led to the current collapses.
Put another way, the rules for handing back mortgages in the US are nothing new. If banks know those rules, they should rationally take them into account and insure against that risk. So no 100% capital, no-doc loans! No loans without adequate income insurance. No bundling mortgages together and rating sub-primes the same as primes in terms of risk. IMO there were multiple instances and levels of fraud leading up to the current crisis. It really got out of hand after the CDO/CDS markets took off after 2002. Financiers were able to sidestep normal reporting rules and take unknown risks.
Nor was there a lack of people warning about them. Warren Buffet did in 2003. Incidentally, a company he bought then that made a lot of sub-prime laons has held up quite well since then too. See
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/10/news/newsmakers/buffett_clayton.fortune/
So no 100% capital, no-doc loans!
No loans without adequate income insurance.
No bundling mortgages together and rating sub-primes the same as primes in terms of risk.
Doh… my post above should have the quoted bits the other way around…
Darn and Dario,
Glad that you were able to sort out an answer to this one as I’ve no idea
…..
Mason-Dixon: Obama 48, McCain 46 in Florida. Note accompanying article “Surge in voter registrations excites Florida Democrats”.
Dario
The reason why 100% capital, no-doc loans are dangerous is that if you are loaning the entire cost of the purchase you must ensure that the assett is worth the money. Hence you must at least have a valuation. Part of the US problem is that loan agents on commission were in league with developers to sell people houses at prices that were far beyond market value, and the developers have since sailed off with the proceeds, leaving the individual and the bank with a house worth less than the loan.
I know it was discussed a fair way back, but maybe McCain said ‘my fellow prisoners’ on purpose to get people thinking about his VNam experiences without directly referring to it – subliminal heroics – dastardly!
Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 45 in Minnesota.
I assume that was just a Florida poll?
Hahaha I’m not sure anyone truly understands the whole thing… that’s the problem!
With those kinds of new registration numbers, the Democrats should be very hopeful of a good general turnout as well
Yeah, just Florida, sorry. Also from Rasmussen: McCain 54, Obama 45 in Georgia.
No probs William… it gave me a small shock for a few seconds but then cleared
According to RCP, the 8 states with the lowest poll average margin are now all states that Bush won in 2000 & 2004. Michigan is the lowest margin non-Bush state at +7.0 to Obama. Daunting numbers.
We all 2% isn’t enough to win Florida…
This may end up being a slaughter.
This is bad news…for Obama…
Also the Stupid Vote breakdown on the daily show was a CRACKER
OT …
Ponting won the toss and will bat first. Cameron White makes his test debut
http://img125.imageshack.us/img125/329/undecidedvotersud3.jpg
oh and the Aussie cricket team is toast
I was just glad that one of the categories wasn’t “political blog addict”
Hahaha that segment was Gold!
FINNS
#457
“Amigo Ronnie, is this what Bilbo trying to say?”
essentialy , although perhaps he did not realize my subtle ‘freedom’ message were modelled on a masterpiece , a Don McLean songster…hoping they avoid Don’s final lyrics : “perhaps they never will”
But then Orwell didn’t know of an “internet” , and also he was no McLean of clarity & freedoms of spirits without mind shackles
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=dipFMJckZOM
Hayden out for a duck; this truly is the end of days…
apparently Palin won’t be on SNL this week (as was rumoured)
http://weblogs.newsday.com/entertainment/tv/blog/2008/10/snl_probably_no_sarah_this_thu.html
Grog,
Not too different from McCain in the debates who hasn’t scored either. Last I looked, McCain’s count was two ducks and a third on deck
…….
Think Hayden will retire from Test cricket after this Australian season although if his form doesn’t pick up quick smart, the selectors might bring forward that retirement and we will see him only in the one dayers come the domestic leg of the summer …..
Obama channeling Ronald Reagan
…..
I didn’t know they played cricket in Michigan, Julie.
They didn’t and they still don’t ….. I picked up cricket rather late in the piece after I met my husband in Feb. 1994 …..
Instant Karma looks like the wild man of Bombay and giving Punter a wild time. Scary, scary time.
Just as a matter of interest Julie, are you a baseball or gridiron fan?
#487, Amigo, is that you with a red beard on that youtube video?
Philadelphia Eagles for me
When I was in Berlin in April I went to the old Reich Sports Forum behind the Olympic Stadium, to photograph the horrible Thorak Nazi statues there, and the first sport I saw being played there was cricket. It was quite homesick-making. Berlin is full of Indians (just like Queanbeyan!) and they have taken over the sports grounds at the Forum. What would Goebbels have said about that?
Gridiron fan through and through, although back home, we call it simply football. In the US, what the rest of the world calls “football” traditionally is called soccor. BUT that having been said, I follow almost exclusively the college football only and for the professional football, only my own areas team for Detroit. Much prefer AFL though after having seen AFL, gridiron, and both varities of rugby …..
The greatest soccer club in the world, AC Milan, started out as a cricket club run by a few Poms.
Sorry to interrupt the bonhomie everybody, but … back on topic, please.
Sure William no worries
……
WB @ 501,
Wow – that killed the banter on this thread
Details on how Nebraska splits its EV’s ….
SL
There is a persuasive school of thought that you can judge a countries national character and political systems by the way it plays soccer, even to the extent of what formation it’s team plays in.
Presume you hav a link
Obamarotic logic , how ar you going to judge Papua
Ronster
The premise holds. Their political system and football team are rudimentary.
QED
I’ll find a link. There is a book about it (which I haven’t read).
508 no surprise juliem – it’ll either be the senate or Ann Coulter style commentator for Palin after Nov. (or with any luck merely the answer to a trivia quesiton)
Ronster
I’ll gladly accept your apology.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79vdlEcWxvM
Here’s a question: Can States recall a Senator as they can a Governor? I’m thinking of California’s Gray Davis here – pre-Arnie Gubernator. If Blagojevich or Palin installed themselves as interim Senators could they be sacked by their respective states? Not that AK would do that to Hockey Huntin’ Moose Mom . . .
This looks more like it.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2004/06/27/soccer_sociology?pg=full
“soccer sociology”!
Niche Dio, very niche
lunch – Australia 75/1;
onting 41 off 84 & Katich 28 off 75
No.
They can be impeached by their colleagues in the Senate (I think), however.
That said, whoever is appointed to fill a senate vacancy has to either stand for re-election at a special election at the time of the next Congressional elections or they must vacate the senate seat (and the special election happens without them).
So, for example, Sen. Stevens (R – AK) win his re-election bid for the Senate in November, takes his seat and is then convicted of corruption charges and resigns his post. The Gov. of Alaska (let’s hypothetically say it will still be Palin) chooses his replacement. Palin can choose herself, which would make Lt. Gov. Parnell (R) the Governor of Alaska. Palin would then have to stand a special election in Nov. 2010 for the remaining 4 years of Stevens’ original term.
Nice fightback after Haydos had a shocker…
This bit from that article is interesting about the famous club Ajax, Nazi Germany and forgiveness. Gentiles painting the Star of David on themselves to support their club (and history) says a lot about the world.
Diogenoski
“There is a persuasive school of thought that you can judge a countries national character and political systems by the way it plays soccer, even to the extent of what formation it’s team plays in.”
First of all , your “Soccer Sociology” theory implied all countries played soccerr Well s usual Obamabots’s ‘talking points’ sites were in corect , seeing they don’t play soccer in Papua New Guinea , so your thory fell off th tree
Secondly , “a countries national character” ? soccer involves all this kissing of men on th field , now tis may be an Obamarotic intellegensia trait but not in th reel world of ‘oz’
There is however a study to reflect national character defined as o’ronnlyinism , where attitude to Authority or to Country is a defining issuescientificaly measured …like “God bless America” (tells one a lot about yankees) … “God save th Queen” (tells you alot about our english)…. “Warnie” (tells you alot about Australia , and indeed why our politcans would NEVER say in all thre speechs “God bless Australia”)
FINNS
#496
Amigo , th guy with black hat & yellow coat th poker player….affiable
Thanks SL!
Sorry dyno, but… I was partially wrong.
A senator cannot be recalled by voters of their state, but they can be expelled by a two-third majority of the Senate (or resign).
However (and this is where I was wrong), if a Senator gets expelled or resigns, it is up for that particular State’s executive to determine what happens to the vacant seat. For most states, the state executive and legislature have agreed that a Special Election takes place at the next Congressional election. However, this Special Election could happen immediately or there may be another process involved.
#518 Soccer is played in PNG, its especially popular in parts of the country that were under German rather than British/Australian administration, although nationally its popularity is eclipsed by rugby league. there is a national soccer team, mostly playing periodically against other pacific island countries.
Ronster
PNG has a national soccer team. Their record is a little patchy but they came third in the South Pacific Games once.
There is a theory that one reason the US is so ignorant of the rest of the world is that they are crap at soccer so they don’t see the “World Game”. And who else takes gridiron or baseball seriously.
what the hell does this have to do with the election?
Glen,
From this quote by Diogenes:
Why this has developed into a discussion of the PNG soccer team I have no idea – if it was the US soccer team, it may make a little more sense…
Soccer was invented in china.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20040724/soccer_chinese_040724
The ball was originated made from bamboo strips that were folded and overlapped.
I told you the East is Red and Red Star over China.
actually the mayans played a game very similair to soccer-but they used a human head !
If football was a useful guide to a countries political system then how do you explain Italy? Easily the most disciplined and boring side in world football – two words you would never see used to describe Italian politics
PS The US (mens) is currently ranked 21st by Fifa and they were ranked 4th in 2006. Their women’s side is probably the best in the world. Not to bad really …
Didn’t this soccer as geopolitics metaphor start of with an article Kissinger wrote?
http://www.ashbrook.org/articles/kissinger.html
So where we ended up is where we started , do not always rely on th internet , especialy for politcs , Obama’s talking points or McCain’s talking points or candidates own generic sites giving out disinformation , nor non quality biased papers like huff women’s as its not more objective an 00 is
soccer according to Wiki ansers is NOT played in papua New Guinea , http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_countries_do_not_play_soccer
.
but it is
But Ron, does that make this website an elaborate fake?
http://www.pngfootball.com.pg/
To my knowledge, the sporting theory (!) of politics has been around for quite some time. It was said back in the 70s that if Richmond won the then VFL, Labor would win the next election. Well, that turned out to be nonsense.
Also, the proposition was advanced that the reason why the U.S. couldn’t win a war that required strategy over some period of time, was that the national game was baseball rather than cricket, specifically, if your attention span extends only to the length of a baseball game, and the bits that determine same, you’re always going to lose against those who can develop and change strategy over days (cricket, at least in its traditional form). Dunno what the national game is in Vietnam. Perhaps some one could enlighten us.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
What is it with these Americans?
If you mention raising taxes or propose liberal policies over there they reckon you should be put in a quack assylum.
The rich have totally succeeeded in completely screwing the middle and poor over with all their mud throwing and conning.
Solution to the US credit crisis – Confiscate 90% off all assets above $5 million from each and every corporate boss past and present to fund the crisis, before torture.
Hmm, I think I was a bit too generous above. Take everything they’ve got and save the paperwork.
Now we know why Germany, UK and USA are in deep hsit with their banks.
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/10/09/2008-10-09T081215Z_01_SYD394240_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-SOUNDEST-BANKS.html
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll (phone interviews):
Obama 48% (up 1)
McCain 44% (down 1)
MOE 2.9%
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1576
is there nothing McCain can do???
pray?
Palin can do that Dario…
For all those bacchanalic Obama supporters that have already cast off their clothes in a frenzied orgy of free love, self congratulation and general dancing on John McCain’s alleged grave, there is a cautionary warning from a psephologist of renown.
http://www.mumble.com.au/
“But Ron, does that make this website an elaborate fake?”
US POTUS politcal pre-perseptions , which ar then reinforced by “apparent” actual info via th many internet sites that ar reely disinformation or “talking points” , can become virtual reality So this is a new Age where 000’s in US ar churning out as much misinformation as factual information and many ‘buy’ it because of partisan feelings as truth without queston
This site is reel but it like “right” sites is increasingley relying on that internet , rather than quality news and/or words from th lips of US politcans in aggressive interviews or speechs all of wwhich taken in context This site is not fake but is anyone reel
Glen
I think we have established that Bush is going to suspend Posse Comitatus, bring the troops home from Iraq, seize power and install Sarah “Yup Yup” Palin as dictator. You conservatives don’t have to worry about a thing.
If only Diogenes…but i fear that politics has merely become a battle of style rather than policy
Glen,
With 6 out of 10 citizens fearing a depression (not a recession) then it is understandable that someone is going to pay a political price.
On current polls looks like it will be McCain and the Republicans.
Glen
However, Andrew Landeryou has an excellent post on the economy in the US. Hopefully, it will cheer you up. (Apologies for earlier jibe done in jest).
http://www.vexnews.com/news/1039/usa-americas-economy-judged-most-competitive-in-the-world/
Glen
Tacticaly McCain could go on th economic offensive and I don’t know why he has not
His starting point should be th only thing that had turned this electon from ‘close’ to a big current Obama win..th bailout He should be outraged (as ar voters) that taxpayers read Cinese money is proping up greedy banks and that should be his first theme He is an extreme reluctant supporter of this bank bailout is th message
Then propose regulatory & prudential supervision as th solution , he has nothing to loose p.ssing off big end of town now Then tag line …Obama has not shown his outrage ..Obama is not promising to fix th problem..demand Obama be specific (which obama will not want to)
I’ve yet to see quantitartive data to say why Obama ’s surge , but for weeks hav felt its that $800 illion of there money going to greedy suits behind computers..whilst they work hard
Catch is Glen I’m ONLY presenting politycal spin only to address voter concerns , and Obama can retaliate th same , mention McCain’s admitted economic skills weakness and he has 400 million funds to McCains 84 million in funds , but he who strikes first still has an advantage
Presently Mccain is coincentrating wrongly tacticaly on Obama’s seedy history (which is actualy true info) & Obama’s inexperience , but that should hav been done earlier & its too late for that now , economy is all that matters now
Ron,
Maybe McCain should embrace the “Australian” solution.
If anyone had doubts about him being senile, or still hung up over his POW experiences…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7AET4i6L74
Fins 536
Interesting how far down that list the much vaunted Swiss banks are – below Malta and South Africa. Its not unrealistic – UBS has admitted losses of over $8 Billion this year.
Stock markets are going down again tonght – this is just a panic; there is no reason for it. So much for financiers being rational professionals. They need to have confidence restored. People having so little faith in Bush is understandable but quite harmful at present.
Strategic Vision polls:
Obama 54, McCain 40 in Pennsylvania.
McCain 50, Obama 43 in Georgia.
Strategic Vision (R)
10/5-7/2008;
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Pennsylvania – Obama +14
1,200 likely voters, +/-3
Obama 54 (up 7), McCain 40 (down 6)
Georgia – McCain +7
800 likely voters, +/-3
McCain 50 (down 2), Obama 43 (up 4)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategic_vision_pa_ga_1057.php
50-43 I think William
Can’t get anything right, can I. Corrected.
yes GG , always a chance
Also on Mumble who i agree is excellent , I wondr whether difference in osdds is Labor HAD to win about 16 seats to govern out of maybe a possible 20 good possibles , whereas Obama only has to win about 3 out out of say maybe a dozen possibles all of which he’s either leding or closely behind (WITH presently none of Obama’s blue seats in marginal terority)
Ron
I would agree with you except that McCain made such a big deal of “suspending” his campaign, going to Washington and helping make teh bailout deal that he can’t possibly distace himself from it now. He owns it. If he had stuck to his campaign schedule he might have pulled off what you suggest.
That’s two today… not enough Weet Bix this morning
Those Pennsylvania numbers have a massive 13 point shift in just 2 weeks. Yikes.
Ron,
Personally, I think Obama’s support is broad but not particularly deep. Won’t take much to swing a jittery electorate around.
This campaign has been epitomised by surges related to ephemeral issues. Who is to say McCain could not pull the proverbial rabbit from the hat?
History probably
Wll I’m suggesting perseption & spin , and th suspension would be ‘narratived’ into outrage & reluctance of doing his duty for whole economy but with anger in his hart that citizens monies went to th greedy
Hell i could tag line CEO Lethman Mr Fuld , disagreed with Democrat Oversite Chairman Waxman’s claim that he got 500 million rmuneration This is a direct quote: No says Mr Fulf thats not right , I got 60 million in cash remuneration ….and over last 5 years 250 million in other benefits
McCain: I share your disgust
Dario,
Aren’t we the pithy little penguin?
Any chance you can add to the debate or is that hope we cannot believe in?
Socrates, yes Mr. Market. Has anybody seen the real Mr. Market?
I think Kerry O’Brien was really spooked by his interview with Steve Keen last night. Tonight on 7:30 report, Kerry was virtually demanded that Rudd shows “unrestrained panic” and surrender.
HUH ?? ……
Not fair …….. that means I need to sleep on it …… gggrrrrr …….
bookmarking this and checking it again in 6 to 8 hours ….
William, you might want to keep an eye on this site as you are working Perth time, whatever the h*** is going on, (good or bad for Rep. or Dems) it might break before you go to bed …..
Er, if you say so
I’m sure we’ve been over this ground several times before. Candidates rarely come back from this far behind, this close to election day. Nothing’s impossible, but it’s damn close. History and Intrade are pretty decent judges.
If it was that bad for Dems (i.e. a new scandal) then it wouldn’t be the Republicans announcing it themselves, they would get their media buddies to do the work so they would be at arms length from it.
juliem
It’s more “evidence” about Obama and Ayers. I wouldn’t get too excited. The Independents are HATING the Ayers stuff and McCain has been advised to pull the ads linking Obama with Ayers.
Ron
Well I agree with you – thats spin! At this point I think Howard has a better chance of becoming POTUS than McCain. Reminds me I better get a good bottle of sparkling chilled for election day
#564 – dont tell me it’s the “Whitey Tape” of ma belle Michelle.
Socrates,
Why not , it is Melbourne Cup Day.
Intrade on Obama dropped to 64 when “news” was foretold but it’s back up to 74. Very curious.
Fins 536
I think one reason money market people exaggerate downturns is the self-referential fallacy: they stand to be one of the biggest losers and assume the rest of the world sees it as they do. Its not the end of the world, but its the end of their world.
GG
“Personally, I think Obama’s support is broad but not particularly deep. Won’t take much to swing a jittery electorate around.”
I absolutely agree with that , up to 20/9/08 voters were faced with Bush they detested approx 28% approval and a 72 year old ANOTHER Republcian and they wantd change …YET electon was almost a tie/close
This means after 7 months , obama was a very reluctant choice at best when he should hav on th aboce then already leading by a landslide
Opportunity is still there if McCain attacks on econics & th bailout monie going to th greedy But he needs to offset perseption Bush a Republican announced it…implication therefore it was a Republcian cause ..then McCain’s silly unpolitcal return to Washinghton making that more attached to Republcians seeing Obama initialy said no …and his public return implying he supported giving tax payers 800 billion away …then his subsequent lame economic attack efforts including Debates (him & palin) I would hav advised th reverse of all 5 of these actions
Window however is closing because voters hav not associated bailout with Obama AT ALL….and Pelosi in particular was quite clever in also making it Republican ‘owned’
And this bailout factor I feel is over riding presently voters STILL underlying caution for Obama and polls ar refelcting this …longer Polls go that way th more in concrete , but then US politrcs is so much razzle dazzle razamattaz new ’spin’ is always possible
Dario,
History tell you about what has happened in the past and averages tell you that if your head is in the oven and your feet is in the refrigerator, on average you are warm. The point is this is an unusual election because Obama is black, the campaign has been dominated by sexual politics and of course the meltdown in the financial markets.
Now you may want to hide behind pre conceived ideas of how these things play out and that is fine. However, there are plenty more twists in this thriller imho.
And, it would be nice to see a contribution without the derivative theme.
I told you both POTUS candidates are dud;
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14396.html
Do I need to say it again that the best candidate is not even on the ticket. They just dont feel their pains.
History also tells you what is achievable and what is not
No you don’t. But we’ve said it before… Kevin 07 wasn’t born in the US so he can’t run.
Obama was protecting a lead and needed to make sure he didn’t provide any smear misrepresentation material to McCain. McCain on the other hand had nothing to lose but was too restrained.
GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/05-08, 08; 800 LV 3.5%
Obama 48 (down 1)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.tarrance.com/results.cfm
I agree it was a dull debate. As to who won, That One or The Old One, I thought it was a draw but the most lasting impression was not verbal, but McCain leaving quickly without shaking hands.
Yeah Dario,
I’m glad they told that to the Wright Brothers.
Diogenes, I love you too.
“but McCain leaving quickly without shaking hands.” Why do that & imply you lost , and ar upset
FINNS
#575
“This is a moment history rarely sees — and both men blew it. ”
politco
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14396.html
FINNS
“Do I need to say it again that the best candidate is not even on the ticket. They just dont feel their pains.
Amigo , i think you ar obligated for historys to say it again…and again Nothing wrong in saying again th truth And yes they both blew it
You know i got savaged here for condemning Democrat & Republican congrss over there disgraceful first bailout defeat losing 1.5 valuable weeks of worlds time as Obamabots foolihly wanted to protect ALL Democrats …they DID blow it also
…but main game platyers th candidates hell history will record there vague general platitudeas as th markets go from ruins to ashs …in many trillions of losses , they blew it big time Amigo like Nero fiddling
The Montgolfier brothers had already achieved flight
TP,
Interesting point. Obama has been running the small target campaign throughout. McCain needs to change the narrative/blow up the boat. He’s got nothing to lose from here.
Dario and Dio
Perhaps a drinking game for election day – a drink for every swing state declared for the candidate of your choice? If you want to get really drunk you could watch Fox and drink for every time the blame the outcome on biased liberal media
Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/06-08,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Obama 51 (up 1)
McCain 41 (down 1)
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/08
Amigo Ronnie, you got savage for EVERYTHING. why do you bother to breathe at all.
Dario,
Was that when the next door farmer caught them with his daughter?
Socrates
I think even Fox has given up on McCain.
Finns
I’m planning on linking the photo of you on Machu Picchu wearing the “I was wrong, Obama won” T-shirt at the “other” site.
Hahahaha, yes but they were using rubber
Diog, with the Aussie battler at 67c. Machu Picchu is looking shaky at the moment. The choo-choo train might just stop at Cuzco.
Amigo Ronnie, you got savage for EVERYTHING. why do you bother to breathe at all.’
Even worse insult now Amigo , socrates has discriminately excluded from his free drinks he’s offering to only selected ones Still having that flag pole raising
Diogenes,
Bitch!
Ron (and others)
Feel free to drink up; its good for the economy as long as its Aussie brew. I just asumed you wouldn’t want to celebrate given your views on Obama.
Open to any better suggestions for POTUS election drinking games? I still think one for every Obama swing state should make me happy.
What rubbish Ron. IF the bailout is the solution, which is still a very debatable position, then the failure to pass it quickly is the fault of Bush and his administration which could not put together a coherent package and pursuade a majority of his own Republican reps. Remember, the presidential candidates have nothing more than the power of persuasion, neither is in office.
Earlier to-day there was some discussion about the way in which US mortgages are taxed.
There are a couple points which weren’t aired at that time, which may be worth considering.
Owner-occupant mortgages in the US are tax deductible, so I would expect that repayments on investment property would also be deductible. Afaik (not very far!) the crisis has arisen not because of investment property loans but from owner-occupier mortgages, particularly those which have been sold to people without a prayer of making the payments once the honeymoon interest rate period ends. There’s also been quite a bit of selling of the equivalent of redraw-type loans (using Australian terminology) where people use the equity in their largely or completely paid-off home to finance other expenditure. This works fine while the going’s good – the economy is prospering, incomes secure, unemployment low, and property values rising. However the s*** hits the fan, when the economy goes into reverse.
Many sellers of finance acted with cavalier disregard for the credit-worthiness of their customers, because the mortgages were frequently on-sold. This game of pass the parcel works so long as there’s some-one to act as the next recipient, but ultimately, it is certain to end in tears.
“Open to any better suggestions for POTUS election drinking games?
I still think one for every Obama swing state should make me happy.’”
Thats just blatant bias …against drinkers …why not one for every State no matter who wins it…that makes more drinks
574 Greensborough Growler – I think if you look at the recent history of the polling, and I’m talking about since it became the McCain Vs Obama show, you will find there has only been one “twist in this thriller” for McCain and that was after the Republican convention. Other than that Obama has lead McCain. Fact not fiction.
Diog, the trouble with these two POTUS candidates is that they dont have any sense of humour. btw, do they understand what “taking the mickey” means? Yes, life is very serious staff.
Well Ron there are 50 States and I try to follow Aristotle’s golden rule
But knock yourself out!
Finns
I’m told it’s going to drop further. It’s all Cossies fault. Our high interest rates are falling and they’ve got further to fall than everyone else’s so money is going to be pulled out of Oz. Also our economy is heavily dependent on resources which really tank in a recession.
Socrates
You live in SA don’t you. I’m taking the day off for the election. Should be a great day for a few ales to cleanse the pain of eight years of Bush.
DC has 3 EV’s too! That’s 51 drinks
Dio
Yes we’re in the eastern suburbs and I work in town. If I can get the day off (unknown) I’d happily share some nice red shiraz for Obama. An end to Bush is worth a drink.
Finns
McCain must have a sense of humour to list “Weekend at Bernies” as his favourite film. The thought of Palin dragging a dead Macca around for four years must have been in his mind.
Obama has a quite dry sarcastic wit which is quite cutting but not very funny.
heh! The Republicans playing on the Intrade Contender markets again over their latest stunt, trying to give it momentum.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/macainonaughts.png
Guess that didnt work too well for them.
Oh no! The NRA has endorsed McCain!!! That was right out of left field… he’ll win now!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081009/ap_on_el_pr/nra_mccain
Socrates
At least that’s a known unknown. A drink at lunch at about 1pm would be about right.
Gary,
The “fact” as you so quaintly call it is that it is only in the last week or so that Obama has moved to a clear lead beyond the MOE in the polls. That lead is driven by the reaction to the finacial industry meltdown. As you correctly point out, McCain was recently ahead in the nominal lead in the polls.
Clearly, you have made up your mind. However, the current volatile situation does not preclude a swing back to McCain in the next few weeks.
Diog,
So where can you put your money into these days. All the asset classes are FCUK.
1. equity – ffffk
2. property – ffffk
3. commodities – ffffk
4. cash – ffffk, some even has negative interest rate
5. bonds – ffffk. who trust them
so all the monies have to be under the beds.
Possum
That was when McCain announced a “major event” would happen in the morning. There was speculation Palin would pull out, Hillary would replace her etc etc. It just turned out that McCain was going to run a 60 sec attack ad on Ayers and Obama being friends instead of the 30 second one which didn’t work (which his staff advised him to pull).
Dio
That sounds pretty good. I’m out of town tomorrow but I’ll check my work diary on Monday. Lunch should be fine. Better be off to bed; have to catch a flight.
night all
Finns
Gold
Finns,
Could be good time to take a position on ‘Burglar” futures.
Dio – this is the ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w
GG, i was just thinking about that “asset class” myself with a put option.
btw: how does it feel, to be a rolling stone, like a complete unknown?
So you think GG that things economically will turn around so quickly that those who turned to Obama because of the economic crisis will turn back to McCain? Wishful thinking there GG.
It’s the kind of talk we heard last year when Howard was behind by a mile
So Enemy Marsupial who denied th association with th terorist William now has a US TV add with detail of obama & Ayres , same info as I hav except my info is more detailed
…including th meeting was Obama’s to hav his first politcal contact with any politcal operatives to assist him when he first ran for th illinois Senate etc etc etc info i hav on there close long association
Obama on TV , ” William Ayres just a guy who lives in my neighbourhood”
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w
Th queston was always not that Obama is a terroist but his judgemnt , decency standards & convictions (th queston of McCain’s history is a SEPARATE issue)
Whilst th economy legitimately now dominates , it does not diminish what I’ve said above or previously about above POTUS credentials …and my judgement , decency standards & convictions Obama criticisms …no matter how much anti ron personal or otherwise attacks ar made as diversionary posts made by pro Obama supporters….nor that people feel a change from any Republican is desirable
Scratch, scratch
That’s the bottom of the barrel being scraped by the Repugs. Either that or McCain trying to get out of his coffin after he’s been buried alive. Either way, I like that sound.
Belgium is ranked 7th yet had a bank go bust last week!! Makes you wonder about the countries further down the very greasy pole!
With great respect to both Dario and gary, my posts are merley observational. In the physical world, a tsunami is presaged by a massive tide going out followed by the big waves of destruction.
Everyone seems to acknowledge the current world situation is relatively unique. However, like those people Obama described as “hanging on to their guns and religion as a crtutch, a lot of people seem to think that whaty ou see today is how it will play out in November.
I’m somewhat sceptical.
Diogenes , what part of th truthful facts disclosed in #619 did you object to
(seeing they directly go to a very long period post 1995 of Obama candidate with th terorist Ayres for POTUS re judgement , decency standards & lack of convictions starting with Ayres as one of his original politcal sponsors)
Comedian Al Franken leading in Minnesota Senate race:’
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_senate
You mean like McCain meeting with an “agent of intolerance” who blamed September 11 partly on Americans?
Finns,
It would be nice to have the chicken posters return to the roost because this time, no more Mr Nice Guy and I’ll tell em what I really think.
William has had it far too easy since he joined the corporate world and needs to earn his money. He needs some real angst in his life. I know where he can get some.
GG
I think in principal you ar correct , which is why I suggested an economic/bailout
’spin’ counter attack by McCain , seeing since bailout narrative of baiulout seems to be th driver and perseptions & therefore polls can be similarly reversed ….but time and reversing a lost narrative to your opponent & thereby polls entrenching makes it more very difficult , but not impossible …especialy with flakey US style politcal election mode
Rasmussen national daily tracking poll: Obama +5 (down 1)
Obama 50 (down 1)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
609 and 622
GG You have stated several times that there is plenty of time for McCain to turn it around. But unless I’ve missed it, you haven’t offered any suggestion as to what issue he might use to do so. Sharp changes in voting intention don’t just happen for no reason. So what’s going to do it? .
Diageo/Hotline national tracking poll: Obama +6 (up 5)
Obama 47 (up 2)
McCain 41 (down 3)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_47_mccain_41_hotline_2.php
Sharp changes in voting intention don’t just happen for no reason. ”
Thats true , so my thoughts is based on tactics & ‘politcs’ & spin , rather than reel world of what did & should occur
US voters know there POTUS has powers and US voters also know there Congrss has powrs and passes legislation it initiates & Democrats control it , and its th latter that could be MCains get out of jail card
At th moment sharp voter change (in my gut opinion unsupported todate by polls admittedly) is solely th bailout outrage AND that perception both collapse & bailout proposal is Republican caused ..read McCain associate and Democrats read Obama innocwent
Reality is Democrat controlled Congress should hav enaced regalotry & prudential oversite legislation in alst 2 years AND Republcian contriolled Congress should hav done so in preceding 5 years from when CDO’s & CDS’s started…so thats where alot of blame reely belongs
But that reality was converted to spin irts Republicans fault..1/ by Bush initialy annoucing bailout (politcaly foolish) 2/ by Mccain’s campaign suspenson inplying Republcian ownership (politcaly foolish) 3/ by obama carefuly distancing himself from any responsibility (false he was a Senator in a Democrat controlled congrss…but very politicaly clever of Obama) and 4/ by House Democrats particularly astute Pelosi publcily making it a Republican ‘bailout’ (pretty disengenuous seeing Democrats controlled both Houses)
So spin has taken over reality that there is shared blame going back years , but poliytcs especialy in th plastic US is as much about perseption from spin as it is about reality ..and Democrats hav outsmarted Republicans on this issue including Obama over McCain & Pelosi over House Republicans
McCains move ? to counter attack on causes of collapse re Democtrat majority over last 2 years failing to enact preventative regulation Bills which is true (and dishonestly “forget” th preceding 5 years of Republcian House control) when they also failed to enact Bills , and counter attack on 800 billion bailout monies not going to citizens directly ‘with regret’ where it is going to greedy banks
McCains in polling trouble , collapse & bailout ar prime cause so thats his viable option
…he’s got nothing to lose and having already tacticly conceded both issues to Obama & th Democits & perhaps fatally ,
then despite possible economic implausibility of credibility or success , politcaly one tries to change th game by spin (as opposed to reality of what did occur , failure of Democrats & Republics over regulation because US psche thinks thats ’socialism’ a virus US peoples think (except Democrat “centrists”) on there beloved free enterprise almost unfettered free market sysytem)
and ps/ complicating shared Partys responsibility is neither Party always vote as one block vote unlike ‘oz’ …there broad ‘Churchs’ and differing pressure ‘interest groups’ per State
Possum and Diogenes, glad it wasn’t too serious
….. I got my first clue when I turned on the computer as The Age in Melbourne is my home page and they didn’t show any alarming articles even in breaking news 
….. [up in the middle of my night to get something to eat]
595 Socrates and others,
Can’t enjoy drinking games as the count itself is happening, I’ve got primary age school children coming home at 3pm [the then 11pm in the US].
I will put aside a nice bottle of red wine for consumption beginning after dinner
#635
And from that Huff womens same article:
“Where many leaders are two-faced; publicly kindly but privately feared and/or hated by people closest to them, Obama is consistent .”
Lets test that against words from his OWN MOUTH:
EXAMPLE 1/
Obama talking about millions of working familys in Pennsyvania & other mid west towns
And he is talking ABOUT them behind there back 3,000 kilometres away to affluent fund raisers in San Francisco on 5/4/08 , and reported in ALL credible US media
…………………………………………….“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”
vs Aricle: “in the way he TREATS people, consistently KIND and personally HUMBLE ?
.
EXAMPLE 2/
To 300 million Americans in TV broadcast Phildelphia speech 18/3/08 2 comments:
(a) “I could no more disown him (Pator Wright) than I can disown my white grandmother.”. Obama placed his Grandmother equal to the divisive whaco Wright who he later did disown !
(b) “but a woman (Grandmother) who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe”
vs Article: “in the way he TREATS people, consistently KIND and personally HUMBLE” ?
Trash your own Grandmother…and publicly for shabby political gain …indecent
636, I respect your opinion, we are all entitled to our own. It is a free world. I also am glad that you don’t get an official vote in this election.
Btw, Frank Schaeffer is a man the last time I looked. Surprised you mistook him for a lady after you read the article.
Have a brilliant Friday Ron, I sure intend to
Dear Pollbludgers – does anyone know who this US Politician is?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/bnelson.jpg
GG, yes as a self proclaimed revolutionary Marxist, it’s time to tell them what i really think as well.
I have conspired with the markets. we have no confidence in both of the POTUS candidates. Both are duds, both will not be able to provide the kind of leadership that free World needs.
Exhibit A: The billions and billions and billions that have been thrown to “rescue” and ’stabilise” the financial systems appear to have no no effect on the markets. We will not budge, we will not buy. we will continue sell, sell, sell. We have passed our judgement.
Exhibit B: The best candidate is not even on the ticket. Bring back the Clintons, both Hillary and Bill. Dismiss the current candidates. Proclaim Hillary as the POTUS and Bill as the VP. Hillary will her fighting spirit and Bill feels your pains. That’s what the World needs now.
Exhibit C: The East is Red:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JJ10Cb01.html
Exhibit D: “William has had it far too easy since he joined the corporate world” – Have we not learned anything from the masters of the universe of Wall St who have lost their soul and then proceed to lose our World.
Possum, looks like Senator Bill Nelson of Florida. I googled using [ US Congress B Nelson]. It also turned up references to one of the Nebraska Senators but the picture in his case is clearly not the same guy.
http://billnelson.senate.gov/
I too am sceptical GG but not about the economy improving in the next few weeks but about things getting worse. As we have seen, the worsening situation is helping Obama not McCain. For everyone’s sake, including mine, I’d be very happy to see a complete reversal in the economy tomorrow but the reality is it won’t happen.
“Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS, sources confirm.”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/104947/108/482/624967
Now that wouldn’t come cheap.
Russians taking issue with Palin’s claims of expertise in Russian affairs
……
http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/sais/nexteurope/2008/10/russians_palin_who.html
Ronster 623
I’m not disagreeing with any of those facts, just the interpretation. I don’t think the Ayers stuff is going anywhere for McCain. The Repugs who are rusted on love it but the Independents are sick of it. We’ve heard it all before and it wasn’t very interesting the first time. Ayers is currently a Professor who was never been found guilty of anything. And he is repentant.
McCain doesn’t have anything to say. He’s a desperate sad man who sold his honour and soul to the far right in return for their support. That very act left him totally entangled with them when the Crash hit. If he had’ve stayed a decent “maverick” he would have had more options.
Still, that’s what happens when you sell your soul.
WV has been a bit of a sleeper. But it’s awake now. Holy Moly.
West Virginia ARG McCain 42, Obama 50 Obama +8
639 Possum, if it is Bill Nelson then he sure sounds like a barrell of fun.
http://www.tbo.com/news/columnists/danielruth/MGB0ECTHX4F.html
Dio
Surely that is an outlier – he didn’t even really campaign there in the primary.
Plus wasn’t the whole thing about WV that it was largely rural, with little in the way of urban areas that generally support dems.
Still, if it means he’s even close, its fairly interesting! It just reiterates that the campaign is very much going the wrong way for the Maverick….
Steve, Rocket Rocket over at my blog pointed out that Intrade has that blokes picture as Brendan Nelson.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=615066&z=1223557924483
Bill in full flight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hL7vU_8iwPA&feature=related
That’s pretty funny!
Possum, perhaps intrade could use that clip to spice up their site a bit.
Gallup national tracking poll
10/06-08, 08; 2,761 RV 2%
Obama +11 (steady)
Obama 52 (steady)
McCain 41 (steady)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111052/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-41.aspx
Public Policy Polling (D) – Virginia poll
10/6-7/08; 917 LV, 3.2%
Mode: IVR
Obama +8 (up 6)
Obama 51 (up 3)
McCain 43 (down 3)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf
RCP has now moved Virginia from Toss Up to Leaning Obama. Bye bye McCain.
American Research Group
600 likely voters in each state, margin of error +/-4
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Minnesota:
Obama +1 (steady)
Obama 47 (down 1)
McCain 46 (down 1)
Missouri:
McCain +3 (down 2)
McCain 49 (down 1)
Obama 46 (up 1)
Montana:
McCain +5 (up 3)
McCain 50 (up 1)
Obama 45 (down 2)
New Hampshire:
Obama +9 (up 12!!!)
Obama 52 (up 7)
McCain 43 (down 5)
Ohio:
Obama +3 (up 9)
Obama 48 (up 4)
McCain 45 (down 5)
West Virginia:
Obama +8 (up 12!!!)
Obama 50 (up 5)
McCain 42 (down 7)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/arg_mn_mo_mt_nh_oh_tx_wv.php
Rasmussen state polls
Florida: Obama +3 (Obama up 4)
Indiana: McCain +7 (McCain up 5)
Michigan: Obama +16 (Obama up 11!!!)
New Jersey: Obama +8 (Obama down 5)
North Carolina: Obama +1 (Obama down 2)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_fl_in_mi_nc_nj_108.php
West Virginia has also moved from Leaning McCain to Toss Up on RCP. McCain is getting totally creamed on the state vote.
47% of voters concerned McCain wouldn’t see out his first term
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/09/ftl.health.poll/index.html?eref=rss_politics
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/09/mccain-keating-letter-im_n_133377.html
With what the Dow is doing at the moment – down another 6% overnight – this economic crisis is almost certain to be front and centre in the news right up to election day (and unfortunately, far beyond, one suspects).
The Troopergate court action to stop the investigation has been dismissed. Report to be handed down tommorrow.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24474565-23109,00.html
The McCain campaign is looking a bit like an aneurism getting close to critical.
Perhaps GM shouldn’t have killed the electric car. Their shares hit a 58 year low! And a few scientists are saying the crash will help reduce the burning of fossil fuels and give global warmimg a break. There’s always a silver lining.
GM shares fall to lowest level since 1950
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081009/business_us_gm_shares.html
Obama quoted in the Melbourne Herald/Sun today:
{I can take four more weeks of John McCain’s attacks, but the American people can’t take four more years of John McCain’s Bush policies]
How good is that? Hope they make it into an ad..
Intrade now at 364-174 on the ECV, with Obama 76.6 v McCain 23.4 to win
That’s why McCain pulled out of Michigan last week
PA is even worse. Obama is ahead by 13.8% there. McCains gonna have to pull out of there. VA is now 5.1% to Obama and McCain still won’t campaign there. He’s really lost the plot.
Probably good news for Obama I would think
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/09/AR2008100901290.html?hpid=topnews
Saw McCain’s latest one minute gutter attack on Obama’s patriotism and integrity. I reckon in Australia both McCain and Palin could be charged under our vilification laws with their none too subtle insinuations that Obama is not much more than a terrorist in disguise. Sooner or later, if they keep it up, one of their loony red neck supporters will start thinking he/she has to save the country by blowing Obama away. What could be more patriotic than that? Disgraceful.
I reckon Troopergate is not going to be kind to Palin tommorrow. Maybe it will only savage her husband, but even so that is not going to be good for her.
http://alaskadispatch.com/tundra-talk/1-talk-of-the-tundra/207-monegan-responds-to-todd-palins-statement-in-troopergate-investigation.html
There are two Senator B Nelsons in the Senate – Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Ben Nelson (D-NE). They are not related but are frequently confused.
(Are they possibly Bill and Ben the Flowerpot Men?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcF9JSxkUSE
We don’t know.)
Next year there will be two new Senators, Mark Udall (D-CO) and Tom Udall (D-NM). I’m pretty sure this will be the first occasion on which two cousins with the same surname have been simultaneously elected to the Senate, in place of retiring Republicans, from adjoining states – but I could be wrong. Mark is the son of the late Mo Udall, longtime liberal Dem Congressman and presidential candidate. Stewart Udall, Mo’s brother, was Interior secretary in the Kennedy Administration. Senator Gordon Smith (R-OR), who may well lose his seat this year, is a Udall on his mother’s side. They are all Mormons by the way.
Adam
That must be pretty rare, two Democrat senators who are Mormons. Utah is the reddest state in the US. Perhaps they are not as unelectable as we thought. I’m betting we find out in four years when Romney gets the Repug nomination running on the economic manager ticket during a recession/depression.
Dio 672
So you don’t think the Repug’s will give McCain another go in four years time? LOL
In this clip a McCain supporter at a rally calls Obama and Nancy Pelosi “socialists”, and McCain agrees with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNYCo4wyNRA
Maybe he should be introduced to McCain’s policy of buying up all the bad mortgages in the whole of the U.S.
Oops I was wrong, Mark Udall was raised a Presbyterian. Tom is a Mormon. There are liberal Mormons, mostly outside Utah.
I saw footage of lots of commentators calling Bush a socialist and communist for proposing the bailout. Strange days indeed.
Yeah, like Mitt Romney BEFORE he started his campaign for President.
Utah last elected a Dem Senator in 1972 – Frank Moss, a moderate liberal. Kansas hasn’t elected a Dem Senator since 1932.
Romney is such an utter phony, I can’t believe the Repubs would nominate him. But who else will they have in 2012? Palin? Condi Rice?
I know who they will want:
Petraeus, D.
Yes, ShowsOn, for once I agree with you, he would be an excellent pick. If Obama turns out to be a mediocre president and the economy is still struggling, he would have good prospects.
Adam 679
[Romney is such an utter phony, I can’t believe the Repubs would nominate him. But who else will they have in 2012? Palin? Condi Rice]?
Let’s hope it’s Palin. That would be four more years for Obama for sure..
It seems the death threats against Obama may already have started.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24474688-954,00.html
Palin has a lot of natural political talent, so I wouldn’t write her off. She was obviously seriously underprepared to run this time. But by 2012 she might be a much better candidate. AK has a Senate seat coming up in 2010, currently held by the heavily damaged Lisa Murkowski. Maybe Palin should run for it.
Petraeus will be irrelevant when the US leave Iraq. Palin has been burnt too badly by her interviews. Condi is a relic of the past. Mike Huckabee is still positioning himself for another run. Rudy has been rejected too resoundingly to bounce hack. Maybe Pawlenty will put his hand up, although he doesn’t seem ready yet. The country could be in such a mess that the Dems brand stinks as much as the Repugs do now. This isn’t the world’s best election to win IMHO.
Um, W H Harrison, Andrew Jackson, Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S Grant, Dwight Eisenhower – none of them were irrelevant once their wars were over. Successful generals are hot polutical property in the US. Several others could have been president if they’d wanted, Sherman and Colin Powell being the obvious ones.
Surely you need to have a decent war going on to elect a general as POTUS. Eisenhower had Korea. Petraeus has said wants to do it.
President Petraeus? Iraqi official recalls the day US general revealed ambition
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/president-petraeus-iraqi-official-recalls-the-day-us-general-revealed-ambition-402195.html
In fact every Republican president from Grant to McKinley was a former Civil War officer.
I don’t think you will see Palin for dust after this election. She was aprt of a tactic that seemingly has backfired badly, even before the meltdown. People aren’t taking her seriously as a possible VP. As a possible POTUS, hardly.
Adam
I sit corrected.
If Obama wins and pulls out of Iraq, Petraeus can run on the line of “we were winning in Iraq but the cowardly traitor Obama stabbed our troops in the back.” It’s a powerful line and it’s worked before.
I actually think Palin appears to be a lot smarter a politician than George Bush is. I imagine she’d do a decent job at getting people to show up to vote at least. She will be damaged goods after this election however and I don’t imagine she’ll ever be a serious contender for presidential nominee after this campaign.
Colin Powell is actually a fairly interesting proposition.
I’m actually a little surprised at the resilience of the Republicans in current polling given the stench of the Bush Administration. I would’ve though anyone could beat the Republicans at this election and it’s not as if John McCain is a particularly exciting choice.
To be fair to McCain, she wasn’t his idea. The Republican Right went out of their way to kill the best chance they had to win, siding McCain with Lieberman, Tom Ridge, Arlen Spector. or even Mitt Romney. Some other centrist with some economic credibility.
I see this as their pay back for McCain’s “Maverick” years.
Even if Obama says the U.S. is going to pull out of Iraq on the day of his (probable) inauguration, logistically it would take 1.5 – 2 years to get that many people out of there safely.
By that time a bigger security problem for the U.S. will probably be what is happening in Afghanistan / Pakistan.
Powell will be 75 in 2012. He had his chance in 2000 but his wife talked him out of running.
Obama leading in West Virgina?!?
That is just insane.
Wasn’t West Virginia formed by North supporters in Virginaia during the Civil War?
Maybe it makes sense
No, it’s not insane; just ARG, although the two could be easily confused. I won’t believe it unless I see some other reputable polls showing something similar.
If Obama makes a reasonable fist of guiding the US out of these difficulties he will be re-elected easily in four years time. The American people are not going to forget very quickly which party they blamed for this current mess.
WV was one of the most reliably Dem states in the country until Gore contrived to lose it in 2000 – it even voted for Carter over Reagan in 1980.
Furthermore, the fact Bush got $700 billion out of congress means that at the start of his first term Obama would have extreme authority to get a huge cheque as well, i.e. the mother of all stimulus packages.
The old rules of the Government being the problem have been thrown out the window. (Which is why I think McCain’s campaign is running a completely counter-intuitive message).
Great article on McCain’s anti-socialist campaign rally:
http://www.slate.com/id/2201951/
700
[The old rules of the Government being the problem have been thrown out the window. (Which is why I think McCain’s campaign is running a completely counter-intuitive message)].
You hit the nail right on the head there ShowsOn
Obama lost WV to Hillary 65% to 35% from memory. It was almost the greatest thrashing in history for a successful nominee. It has the highest percentage of “rednecks” in the US. ARG is going to look very smart or very stupid (I choose the latter).
If by “rednecks” you mean working-class whites, that’s probably true. The use of the term “redneck” by elite commentators is a symbol of the kind of arrogant condescension that has alienated these voters from their natural home in the Democrat Party – if WV had voted for Al Gore, the Bush presidency would never have happened, so condescension has its price. If WV really has flipped to Obama, that’s a sign that economics really has driven all other issues out of the election.
WV switched from being reliably blue to reliably red solely because of social issues. I would assume that the Lewinsky scandal played especially badly over there.
However, the whole reason why WV was a blue state in the first place was because of economic issues (even Dukakis – the most liberal nominee in years – won there). If the economy looks like tanking, there may be a chance WV switches to blue again.
Of course, I was pretty certain that Hillary would have won WV even if economic issues hadn’t come to the fore – the Clintons seem to be quite popular (still) amongst the rural poor.
Palin making more gaffes on her supposed strong suit, energy
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/09/palin-stumped-again-on-he_n_133449.html
Surely it would’ve been closer if he campaigned there?
Don’t worry Adam, the rednecks are on board:
http://rednecks4obama.com/HomePage.php
Check out the photo. To say Obama is some elitist who doesn’t care about working class voters is a joke. The idea that ‘NASCAR Rednecks’ only vote Republican is just a myth created by Republicans.
That Gore and Kerry lost WV, a state full of working-class whites, is not a myth.
Adam, WV is stereotyped by most of the US as an inbred and dumb state. Rightly or wrongly, it’s the butt of a lot of jokes; and I’m not talking about elite commentators. I’m talking about people all across the country from all walks of life.
706
That would be right. Palin doesn’t even know what’s going on in her own backyard. Great choice for VP of the whole country.
Another poll puts Obama up by 5 in NC…
Civitas Institute (R)/Tel Opinion Research
October 6-8, 2008, n=600 registered voters, margin of error +/- 4.2
Obama 48 (up 3)
McCain 43 (down 2)
http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/nc-poll-obama-takes-lead-nc
708
If a state full of working class whites votes for the Republican party they’re certainly not the sharpest tools in the shed. Talk about shoot yourself in the foot.
More bad numbers for McCain in Ohio (Obama +2) and especially Florida (Obama +8!!)
Strategic Vision (R)
10/6-8/2008;
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Each poll 1,200 likely voters, +/-3
Florida:
Obama 52 (up 7)
McCain 44 (down 4)
Ohio:
Obama 48 (up 4)
McCain 46 (down 2)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategic_vision_fl_oh_1068.php
713
My God – if that’s right for Florida, this swing is huge. (7% does seem a bit over the top though).
dont know if this has been posted before
but the sheer gall is unbelievable
“Palin pre-empts state report, clears self in probe”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jOTk11gvqDAgD0cY3i4WjI_2YOxwD93NBOT00
That’s from a Republican affiliated pollster too…
Sounds like the report is going to hammer her then…
Why would anyone believe a report released by a party’s own campaign team? Really dumb.
“…..because Ms. Palin was also planning to attend and did not want him nearby.
Somewhat bewildered, Mr. Monegan soon determined that Trooper Wooten had indeed volunteered for duty at the fairgrounds — in full costume as “Safety Bear,” the troopers’ child-friendly mascot.”
Palins Repeatedly Pressed Case Against Trooper
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/us/10trooper.html?bl&ex=1223697600&en=ce240ad3162ac5ac&ei=5087
719
It would be poetic justice if Palin was severely damaged by a scandal after her scurrilous attacks on Obama. How does the saying go? Those who live by the sword die by the sword.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/10/2387807.htm?section=justin
“Alaska’s Supreme Court has dismissed a bid by six US Republican politicians to stop an investigation into alleged abuse of power by vice-presidential nominee and Alaskan Governor, Sarah Palin.”
Darn,personally I think death by thousand cuts would be more appropriate
Darn @ 673,
McCain won’t be around to entertain the thought in 2012 ……
ltep @ 692,
If Obama is serious about putting some Republicans in his cabinet, I suspect that Colin Powell might be his first port of call ………
Has McCain not disclosed his gambling winnings of late as per Senate ethics rules?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/09/watchdog-group-seeks-ethics-investigation-of-mccain/
The McCain camp is getting increasingly desperate
Adam
I used the term “rednecks” in quotation marks for those reasons. I was pretty dismissive of “rednecks” until I read “Deer Hunting with Jesus” which is a great book. Now I’ve got a grudging respect for them.
722
Julie, I presume you mean McCain won’t be around politically. Or do you know something about his state of health that we don’t?
Adam
Perhaps a right wing intellectual that votes labor should go and read the comments at: http://rednecks4obama.com/HomePage.php.
Some talk about economics but many talk about the shame of being led by a drongo.
How is “guy of the street” an “explicitly racial attack”? An explicit racial attack must contain an explicit reference to race.
727,
I know nothing concrete about either his political future nor his health. I was speculating on the latter though.
fredn, I already did. Most amusing. And I am not a right-wing intellectual. I am a mainstream Labor hack. I only look right-wing in the present company.
I could also have said “I only look like an intellectual in the present company,” but I refrained.
732,
I will take that as an extreme compliment
Nice to know, Adam, that you are on our side though, here where it counts
Adam, the longer quote was “edged up to an explicitly racial attack”. As in it wasn’t explicit but was getting close.
731 & 732 Adam
LOL
How’s the cricket going Julie?
Aus 299-5 just after drinks in the first session …. lunch break 5pm local time in Canberra …..
hussey 75 from 146 and haddin 10 from 34, haddin on strike at the moment
Is this Palin’s high school report card?
http://buzzfeed.com/scott/sarah-palins-sat-scores
Adam says:
“I am a mainstream Labor hack”
Yes it worries me, I think if your honest you would put right in there some where, the current strength of the labor party in my view is it can tolerate a range of views including no doubt yours and Mr Rudd’s.
I am impressed with the current Victorian Labor party, nice balance of economic rationalism and social Liberalism ( go Brumby I say). I suspect the current abortion and fertility legislation would be causing you some concern, and if not, why do you believe we should enjoy such liberal outcomes while the Americans have to put up with religious zealots?
Perhaps I was too kind about the rednecks. What rock did these Republicans crawl out from under?
As a comment said “Low information voters are looking for low information solutions from low information candidates.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/Obama_as_terrorist.html#comments
Dario,
SAT (or ACT, there are two main competing tests out there) is a standardized test that is required for entry to all US colleges and universities. Since there are 50 states and hundreds, if not thousands, of schools in each one; this is how the universities and colleges put all potential students on a level playing field. Here it is done with the HSC (or your states equivelent, measured in universal units to put entrants on a level playing field).
Hawaii Pacific University doesn’t list their SAT or ACT requirements on their website. Can’t remember where else Palin attended.
I can guarantee you that SAT scores like those wouldn’t have gained her even a “sniff” of admission to a university with any major reputation. I had about 1300 total between math and verbal scores on my SAT and that wasn’t enough for my university (University of Michigan). I had to take the other test as well (ACT) despite having left school ranked #10 out of 242 students.
Well she did go to 5 different unis…
Is the US the first banana republic with nuclear weapons? Balanced as always, from Christopher Hitchens. I have to agree with this bit.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/10/hitchens200810?currentPage=1
Diogeneoski #645
Ronster 623 “I’m not disagreeing with any of those facts, just the interpretation”
That’s a vague disingenuous comment Which of th 4 interpetations do you disagree with
One , that William Ayres was one of worst terrorists in US history Do you Dispiute that ?
(if so, I can detail miles more supporting data than that given in a short 60 second add).
Two , that at age 34 years Obama a LAWYER , FIRST started his politcl career by going to th home of William Ayres in 95 , Ayres being his first politcl sponsor to meet William Ayres political operatives for an intro & OK
(..when Obama made his initial run for Illinois Senate…or there close long subsequent associations eg as a Director on Ayres Foundation anand OTHER close associations with him) Do you Dispute that ?
Three , my assertion this Ayres relationship demonstrates Obama shows , not that Obama is a terrorist , but Obama displayed poor judgement asociating not with elite or normative people but such crude people & may as well hav been a multipley convicted pedilfile given Ayres terorist record
(and further Obama’s Ayres ‘friendship’ displayed lack of decency standards associating with th vileness of an Ayres & a lack of governance convictions instead to befriend (& longterm) any seeedy person for his personal ambitions) Th test is of Obama’s character , as a stand alone , and not comparative to McCain or anyone else Do you Dispute that ?
Four , because th perception is this econamy crisis was caused by th Republicans and therfore is driving Obama’s lead & probable electon , is your interpretation is use this econamic crisis (& polling resulting) to avoid either acknowledging or disagreeing with specificalty one , two or thre IF so it is what I’ve said aboiut Obamabots , live in an internet intelectecual virtual reality fantasyland as if any adverse Obama acknowledgement means they cann’t support there messiah any more
Ron, I dispute point number 1. I don’t think anyone from the Weatherman would classify as one of the worst US terrorists, when you consider that that group contains people like the Unabomber, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols.
Lunch 333/5 – Haddin 26 from 93, Hussey 92 from 181
back on at 5:40
Calm down, Ron.
Ronster
1. Ayers was not even close to being one of the worst terrorists in the US. He’s never even done jail time from what I can read. He’s never killed anyone and I don’t think he’s ever injured anyone. Look up Metesky, McVeigh and Kaczynski is you want a decent terrorist. Ayers isn’t in their league.
2. Probably true (but couldn’t give a shit if it was or wasn’t)
3. Ayers had renounced his terrorism by that stage. It was perhaps a bit naive of Obama to work with him but it depends on how much he believed in the project doing good. I know a few seedy people and have to work with them. It’s a part of “doing business”. I don’t like it but I do it. I had to operate on one of Australia’s only terrorists this year and I’ve operated on plenty of murderers and worse. Sometimes you just separate your beliefs from your job.
4. It honestly doesn’t bother me (and Wright did to some extent). I’m an existentialist. People are defined by their actions and decisions. Personally, Obama’s support for capital punishment disgusts me and is more important than Wright, Ayers and Rezko.
Canada goes to the polls on Tuesday …….
If anyone is interested in Canadian election I thought this was interesting:
http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html
This one from the Australian is pretty good too ….
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24475191-2703,00.html
* personally, I don’t care a whole lot about Canadian politics but the article here notes that the financial crisis is hitting the incumbent party in the polls there as it is in the US.
Kit and Juliem, those polls mean squat just you wait till the new ones come out after Stephane Dion’s interview in which he couldnt understand a question in English and had to restart the interview 3 times lol!
http://www.thestar.com/article/515212
Tories show video to play up Dion’s language difficulties
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=6aa1118e-37d6-4916-b403-896418a5fe9b
Tories try to make hay with fumbled Dion interview
heheheh here comes a Tory majority thankyou frenchie!
Hussey just got his hundred … second test hundred against India and 9th overall
Not sure any government in power will increase their lead in government in the current economic climate, Glen. While I don’t know enough about Canadian nor New Zealand politics to offer a prediction on who will win their respective elections, I feel fairly certain in saying that if the incumbents are returned, that it will not be with increased majorities ….. Betcha the Conservatives in Canada are actually wishing now that they had not called a snap election, it was horrible timing for them since their main motivation was trying to get power to govern in their own right …..
and Australia has won every game he has got a hundred in… a good omen
They had to call one eventually juliem, better going when they want to rather than have the Bloc, NDP and Liberals gang up when they think they can win!
By your logic then Rudd must not be looking forward to 2010?
Canada is better placed than any country to ride it out werent their banks put No1 now i know they’re close to the USA but I’d say the Tories will pick up seats I mean could you vote for a party whose leader cannot even converse well in your own language…nope!
Not sure what will happen in 2010 but hope it is good for the Labor party.
One thing I do think will be really interesting is how Parliament QT will be this week
… things ought to be hopping over on the “generic thread” LOL …..
New thread.